Taylor's 1,225.5 rushing yards line is well-priced; workload concerns make the over harder to trust.

Taylor's over 1,225.5 rushing yards line is well-priced despite him rushing for over 1,500 yards last season. The Colts have signaled intent to lighten his workload early in the season and against weaker opponents to keep him fresh for bigger games. Last season was only the second time in his career he played all 17 games, so the line already accounts for potential missed time or reduced usage. The path to clearing the number gets much tighter if he misses even one or two games or if the Colts reduce his touches. Michael Pittman JR leans slightly under because the number assumes too much has to go right from a workload and health standpoint, with insufficient value either way.