Yahoo Sports NFL on Matthew Stafford

ArticleRAMalytics: Why the Rams are regressing on offense
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Stafford currently ranks as the 18th quarterback in the NFL. Last season he was solidly in first place. Stafford's ability to generate big-time throws has fallen off a cliff. He has declined from a 7.7% rate in 2025 to 3.1% this season.
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Stafford regressing from MVP form; 18th-ranked QB with collapsed big-time throw rate.

Stafford's 2025 MVP season was an outlier; regression to the mean is happening in 2026. He currently ranks 18th among NFL quarterbacks by PFF (50% drop-back threshold), down from solidly first place last season. His big-time throw rate has collapsed from 7.7% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and he's generating more turnover-worthy plays (3.3% to 3.8%) and negatively graded plays (8.0% to 10.1%), while positively graded plays have declined from 17.2% to 14.2%.

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