BTJ's WR30 ADP is too steep given his Mac Jones dependency and emergence of Meyers and Washington.

Brian Thomas Jr. is a bust risk at ADP 74.0 (WR30) despite an electrifying rookie season (WR4 in half-PPR points with 240.5, tied for WR11 in half-PPR points per game at 14.1). His sophomore season was a stark falloff: WR43 in half-PPR points (114.8) and WR43 in half-PPR points per game (8.2), though he dealt with a wrist injury. A critical concern is his quarterback dependency: with Mac Jones playing 70%+ of snaps in eight games in 2024, BTJ averaged 16 half-PPR points per game and 17.6 expected half-PPR points per game; in nine games with Trevor Lawrence as the primary starter in 2024, he averaged only 12.5 half-PPR points per game and 11.4 expected half-PPR points per game. His career marks (9.9 half-PPR points per game, 11.5 expected half-PPR points per game) would rank 25th and 32nd respectively among 91 wideouts with 250+ routes in 2025. Recent performance is concerning: in the final four games of 2025, BTJ recorded only 2.8 receptions per game, 31.8 receiving yards per game, 1 TD, 6.1 half-PPR points per game, and 7.4 expected half-PPR points per game, with Jakobi Meyers (91.0% route participation), Parker Washington (77.4%), and Travis Hunter creating target competition.