Sutton faces target decline with Waddle arrival; undervalued relative to market despite fairly priced TD line.

Davis Mattek expresses hesitation about drafting Courtland Sutton despite his historical production, noting that Sutton has 'made a lot of hay as basically the only good pass catcher on the team' and is therefore 'one of my least drafted guys relative to what the market consensus is.' The core concern is target volume decline with Jaylen Waddle's arrival; Mattek argues that 'Jaylen Wadd is going to be better at earning targets than Courtland Sutton' and dismisses the idea that Sutton's productivity can remain the same with fewer targets as 'a myth in the end' because 'there's only one ball.' Sutton's 19.7% target share projects to 6.7 receiving touchdowns; Mattek views the 6.5 touchdown line as 'quite a good line' and does not lean either direction on the over/under, suggesting the projection is fairly priced despite the target-share concern. Sutton also appears as the highest-drafted wide receiver in Mattek's autodrafted team, creating correlation risk alongside Jaden Blue (running back), both Broncos.