Richardson's health and consistency are the linchpin for Colts' division and playoff odds.

Richardson's health and performance are the primary determinant of the Colts' division and playoff viability. If fully healthy and playing at his best stretch level from last season, the Colts can be competitive for the AFC South; if average, limited by his Achilles injury, or inconsistent against better teams, winning the division becomes impossible. His stability is also critical to the over 7.5 wins bet—eight wins should be within reach if he provides stable quarterback play for a full season, but if he misses time or regresses, the Colts could slide back toward seven wins or worse.