Jones's +1700 Comeback Player odds lack value due to strong competition from Mahomes and higher award bar.

Daniel Jones for Comeback Player of the Year at +1700 makes logical sense on paper—he is coming off an Achilles injury, expected to start, and if the Colts make the playoffs with him playing well, the narrative is obvious: former Giants quarterback revives his career in Indianapolis and stabilizes a franchise searching for answers. However, the competition is too strong. Patrick Mahomes being the favorite makes this much harder to like. If Mahomes plays most of the season and returns to his usual level, voters will likely ignore Jones's narrative. Jones would need not just a solid season but a very good one, plus a Colts playoff berth, plus enough national attention to overcome bigger-name candidates. At +1700, the number is not ridiculous, but there is not enough value. Jones can be worthwhile in team markets because competent quarterback play may lift the Colts, but for an individual award, the bar is higher.