Luther Burden fantasy football insight from Hayden Winks - PPR Rankings

Burden is an extremely boom-bust fantasy pick with very good people on both sides. On one hand, Burden "moves different" (true) and has incredible yards per route metrics. That was 2.5 in the regular season, on par with some of the best rookie seasons of the decade. On the other hand, Burden's per-route stats were on a very small sample. If we include the postseason, then they drop to 2.2. If we exclude his 65-yard flea flicker busted coverage, then it's down to 2.0. If we exclude his screens, then it's down to 1.8. It's unlikely that his 25% screen rate will continue when he increases his snaps. Burden also cleared 67% snaps in just one game and averaged 31.7 receiving yards per game in the 7 contests with Rome Odunze active and a near full-time Colston Loveland (Weeks 8-13 plus 19-20). In the playoffs, Burden played 63% and 53% of snaps. That said, Burden's 1.8-2.2 yards per route sample is encouraging, and his snaps and routes are obviously scaling in his second season, especially with Kalif Raymond replacing DJ Moore. It'll be a legitimate competition between Burden, Loveland, and Odunze for the target lead. The splits when each was healthy will put your brain into a pretzel, by the way: On tape, Burden is one of the best yards after catch assets in the NFL. He is a tough tackle at his size, and Burden can run by defenders, too. Ben Johnson did a great job of using screens and at-snap motion to generate advantageous looks, and I only expect that to continue. Burden hit the breaks on comeback and out routes at an encouraging rate, too. His sliding play vs. SF stands o...