The Falcoholic on Tua Tagovailoa
From the article
Tua takes a much higher number of sacks whenever pressured, recording a 19.4 percent career pressure-to-sack rate according to PFF, compared to Penix's 12.2 percent... Tua has a 4 percent turnover-worthy play rate over his career per PFF compared to Penix's 2.9 percent.
STACKED’s take
Tua's sack rate, turnover-worthy plays, and contract risk make him inferior to Penix.
Tua is the backup option in the Falcons' QB decision; while he excels in ball placement accuracy, he is outshone by Penix in every other objective measure of quarterback play. Tua's efficient dink-and-dunk style can lead to chunk yards only if throwing to explosive playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Zachariah Branch with dynamic run-after-catch abilities, but this is a hard way to live in the modern NFL given data-driven analysis showing explosive plays are critical to scoring. Tua takes a much higher number of sacks when pressured (19.4 percent career pressure-to-sack rate, career-worst 23 percent in 2025, culminating a three-year downward trend) compared to Penix's 12.2 percent. Tua has a 4 percent turnover-worthy play rate over his career per PFF compared to Penix's 2.9 percent (equivalent to Kirk Cousins' 4.6 rate in 2024), meaning a normal Tua season resembles Kirk's turnover-laden first year in Atlanta. Tua's inconsistency throughout the summer highlights why the belief he is significantly better than Penix holds no water. If Tua is the starter and plays well in 2026, the Falcons will be forced to give him a lucrative contract extension as he hits free agency next spring, repeating Miami's mistake that led to the GM and head coach being fired within 18 months.
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