Daily Norseman on Kyler Murray

ArticleVikings 2026 Season Forecast
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Murray comes to the Vikings with roughly league average, rather than considerably worse, performance metrics. Murray's QBR rankings each season since being drafted #1 overall in 2019... Over Murray's career, he has a season average QBR of 58.0. By contrast, the Vikings QBR last season was 35.4. When Murray has had an above average defense in points allowed his QBR has been in the low 60s. That's not an unreasonable baseline expectation this season.
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Murray's 58.0 career QBR baseline projects major upgrade over Vikings' 35.4 in 2025.

Murray comes to the Vikings with roughly league-average performance metrics, a major upgrade over the Vikings' 2025 quarterback performance (35.4 QBR). Murray's career season-average QBR is 58.0, compared to the Vikings' 2025 weighted-average QBR of 35.4 (McCarthy 35.6, Wentz 43.3, Brosmer 14.3). When Murray has had an above-average defense in points allowed (15th in 2024, 11th in 2021, 12th in 2020), his QBR has been in the low 60s, which is a reasonable baseline expectation this season given the Vikings' top-five defense and the team around him. This warrants a significant three-game adjustment to the Vikings win total this season.

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