Yahoo Fantasy Football on Justin Herbert
From the article
aDOT (using Play Action): 8.0 (2025), 10.6 (2026); Pressure Rate: 48.5%, 65.0%; CPOE: +1.57% (2025), -6.24% (2026)
STACKED’s take
Herbert's CPOE down 7.81% as McDaniel system demands longer routes under more pressure.
Herbert's completion percentage over expected (CPOE) has dropped sharply to -6.24% in 2026 versus +1.57% in 2025, driven by a 19.4% increase in air yards of target (aDOT to 9.2) and a spike in pressure rate from 48.5% to 65.0%. The source notes this is partly a system issue—McDaniel's offense relies on pre-snap motion (up to 73.8% from 50.0%) and play-action deep shots (aDOT on play-action at 10.6)—but the combination of longer routes, more pressure, and three receiver drops has left Herbert struggling to execute. Early-down pass rate over expectation has fallen to -10.5% from +1.91%, and the Chargers are averaging 56.5 plays per game versus 64.4 in 2025, reducing offensive volume.
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