PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
2026 Fantasy Rankings: Players 13-18 in PPR Leagues (06/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 24, 2026
Published
Wed, June 24, 2026
44
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Justin JeffersonDe'Von AchaneKyle PittsGeorge PickensAshton JeantyChristian McCaffreyOmarion HamptonA.J. BrownDak PrescottKenneth Walker IIINico CollinsRashee RiceSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection62:12
A.J. Brown is ranked 13th in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is noted as one of the phenomenal players in the top tier of the rankings.
Insight pageAshton Jeanty
NegativeProjection0:01
Ashton Jeanty had a disappointing year with only 3.7 yards per carry, the second-worst yards before contact per carry in the NFL.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:59
Ashton Jeanty, ranked 16th overall, had a disappointing 2025 season as RB15 per game with only 3.7 yards per carry, the second-worst yards before contact per carry in the NFL.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveInjury0:02
Christian McCaffrey was injured in the preseason two years ago but practiced up until week 1, leading to confidence he would play before getting hurt in practice the week of week 1, illustrating the unpredictability of his injury history.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:02
McCaffrey was injured in the preseason two years ago and practiced through training camp before getting hurt in practice the week of week one, leading to a lost season.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveRole61:52
Dak Prescott benefits from having good quarterbacks around him and performs well when one of the top receivers is out, making him a sensational option in those scenarios.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeProjection0:11
Dave projects a 20% decline in Achane's production due to Malik Willis replacing Tua Tagovailoa, expecting his targets to drop significantly and his PPR points to fall from 20.8 to around 16 per game.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:14
Achane had 85 targets and 67 catches last year with 43% of his PPR points coming through the air, but this receiving volume is expected to decline significantly with Willis at QB, who has a 13.1% target rate to running backs in the NFL.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:14
43% of Achane's PPR points last year came through the air (85 targets, 67 catches, ~500 receiving yards), and this receiving production is expected to crater with Willis at quarterback, who has a 13.1% target rate to running backs in the NFL.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:14
Achane scored 12 touchdowns last year, the fewest of any top-five running back, and this scoring is unlikely to increase given the offensive changes.
Insight pagePositiveBust0:15
Achane is described as 'probably the scariest guy at the one-two turn' because he could either be a league winner or a bust, with concerns about declining touchdown potential and reception volume in a worse offensive environment.
Insight pagePositiveBust0:15
Heath views Achane as one of the scariest picks at the one-two turn because he could either be a league winner or a bust, with concerns about Willis's low running back target rate and the Dolphins' poor offensive context.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:17
Achane's touchdown potential is limited, with Vegas setting his rushing touchdown over-under at 5.5, similar to Breece Hall and Ramondre Stevenson, indicating low scoring upside.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:26
Devon Achane was RB5 per game last year but faces a significant downside risk in 2026 due to expected 20% decline in targets with new QB Malik Willis and play-caller Bobby Slowick, who have a track record of lower pass volume compared to Tua Tagovailoa.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:43
Achane scored 12 touchdowns last year (fewest of any top-5 RB) and is unlikely to match that total in 2026, with Vegas setting his rushing TD over-under at just 5.5.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveProjection0:01
George Pickens had an awesome year and is ranked 17th or 18th overall in the consensus rankings.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:17
George Pickens had an awesome 2025 season and is ranked 18th overall in PPR consensus rankings.
Insight pagePositiveProjection62:12
George Pickens is ranked 18th in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is included among the phenomenal players in the top tier.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeBust0:20
Jefferson could have a bounce-back season and still be a bust at the one-two turn due to uncertainty around QB play and pass volume, making him a risky pick at his current ADP.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:20
Jefferson's target volume is uncertain with the Vikings' new QB situation; analyst expects he may not receive 10 targets per game and questions whether the offense will be high-volume enough to support top-tier WR production.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:20
Heath is lukewarm on Jefferson at 14th overall, concerned that he may not receive 10 targets per game and lacks top-three to five wide receiver upside despite potential for a bounce-back season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Projected for 99 catches, 1,300 yards and six touchdowns, ranked 16th overall, with concerns about whether he can reach top-3 to top-5 wide receiver upside given the Vikings' balanced offensive approach and Jordan Addison's presence.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:20
Not expected to receive 10 targets per game due to the Vikings' balanced offensive scheme and the presence of Jordan Addison, with potential for only low-8s targets per game given Kyler Murray's historical pass attempt averages.
Insight pagePositiveBust0:21
Could have a bounce-back season and still be a bust at the 1-2 turn due to unrealistic expectations for top-3 to top-5 wide receiver production in the current Vikings offensive framework.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:21
Jefferson could have a bounce-back season and still be a bust at the one-two turn, with the analyst ranking him 16th overall and projecting 99 catches, 1,300 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:22
In five games with Carson Wentz, Jefferson averaged 16.6 PPR points per game and 16.3 PPR points per game (with zero touchdowns), demonstrating he can still produce at a high level with competent quarterback play.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:24
Should be drafted in the late round one to early round two range, with realistic upside to deliver 16-17 PPR points per game if Kyler Murray provides competent quarterback play.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:25
Kyler Murray's poor performance last year with off-target throws and ugly deep balls raises concerns about Jefferson hitting his upside ceiling despite his talent.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:37
Justin Jefferson, ranked 14th overall, is projected for 99 catches, 1,300 yards, and 6 touchdowns, representing a bounce-back season but with uncertainty about whether he'll achieve top-3 to top-5 WR upside given the Vikings' pass volume and Jordan Addison's presence.
Insight pagePositiveProjection62:12
Justin Jefferson is ranked 14th in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is included among the phenomenal players in the top tier.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection62:34
Kenneth Walker is ranked 22nd in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is noted as one of the top running backs that can sneak into the top 24.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveRole0:03
The addition of Kevin Stefanski as offensive coordinator should be great for Kyle Pitts, and the lack of proven targets aside from Drake London should increase his opportunities.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:04
Kyle Pitts has been fifth or higher in projections all offseason and should push to be a top-five tight end, with the Stefanski addition making it easier to trust the projections.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:05
In 12 games with Drake London on the field last year, Pitts averaged only 9.6 PPR points per game, and the analyst wants to see double-digit averages or 11-12+ for elite production.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:05
Kyle Pitts is going around 95th overall, and even if he averages 9 points per game, that would justify the pick, though the analyst prefers to draft him closer to tight end 7 or 8.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:31
Kyle Pitts is going around 95th overall in drafts; even if he averages 9 PPR points per game, reaching 10.5 PPR points would justify his ADP, making him a reasonable value pick despite not being a top-5 TE target.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:37
Kyle Pitts signed a 3-year, $54 million extension with $36 million guaranteed, signaling the Falcons' long-term commitment and suggesting he should benefit from Kevin Stefanski's offensive system.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:40
Kyle Pitts has been projected as a top-5 tight end all offseason and the Stefanski hire makes it easier to trust those projections, though analyst prefers drafting him closer to TE7-8 rather than top-5.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:58
Kyle Pitts averaged only 9.6 PPR points per game in 12 games with Drake London on the field last year, and many of his best performances came when London was out, raising questions about his production with London healthy.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveProjection62:34
Nico Collins is ranked 20th in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is noted as one of the top players that can sneak into the top 24.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveInjury0:00
Omarion Hampton had a broken ankle in week 5 last season, came back and split carries, but had a lot of catches.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:49
Omarion Hampton, ranked 15th overall, suffered a broken ankle in week 5 last season, returned and split carries but had significant receiving volume, finishing as RB13 per game.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveProjection62:34
Rasheed Rice is ranked 21st in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is highlighted as one of the top players that can sneak into the top 24.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection62:34
Saquon Barkley is ranked 19th in the 2026 PPR fantasy rankings and is highlighted as one of the top running backs that can sneak into the top 24.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:03Can you believe this? He had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:08Off to the races! And he stays on his feet!
0:11He's just gonna go the distance! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
0:16Yesterday we looked at the top 12 players in our consensus rankings.
0:20Today and tomorrow, the next 12. So 13-18 in the overall consensus PPR rankings right now on Fantasy Football Today.
0:26And who would that be? Devon Achan as the number 13 overall player.
0:30He was RB5 per game last year, but it was a strong year for running backs with 5 running backs averaging more
0:37than 20 PPR fantasy points per game. Justin Jefferson, he was not wide receiver 5 last year.
0:42No, he was wide receiver 30 per game in full PPR.
0:4541st per game in non-PPR. He is clocking in at number 14 overall.
0:49Omarion Hampton, number 13 running back per game last season.
0:52He had a broken ankle in week 5, came back and split carries, but he had a lot of catches.
0:59He is number 15 in the overall rankings. Ashton Gentty, not such a great year for Ashton Gentty.
1:04He was RB15 per game, but, you know, struggled 3.7 yards per carry.
1:08Second worst yards before contact per carry in the NFL.
1:11He's number 16. Derek Henry was awesome. He was top 7 running back on a per game basis.
1:17And George Pickens was awesome. Those guys are 17 and 18.
1:20So Achan, Jefferson, Hampton, Gentty, Henry Pickens, plus Richard, Eisenberg, and Cummings.
1:24Hello, Richard, Eisenberg, and Cummings, the law firm. Hey, Dave.
1:27Don't draft us. We're not going to get you fantasy points.
1:30Hey, Jamie. Good morning. Good morning. Hey, Heath. I might get you some fantasy points.
1:35Oh, yeah? I don't buy it for one second.
1:38What position could Heath play and get us fantasy points at?
1:41A goalie. Tight end. Goalie is going to be, he's going to play soccer on ice.
1:46He's going to play goalie. Soccer on ice. Yeah.
1:49Excited for the USA game tomorrow, Heath? Um, that's going to be a 10 o'clock game, I believe.
1:54So I'm probably going to hear about that one in the morning.
1:58That's a meaningless game. All right. Um, I did have an email of the day about Christian McCaffrey from jazz.
2:04We can do this quickly here, but jazz just wants to, wants to point out that the last time McCaffrey had all
2:11that injured season two years ago, he was injured in the preseason.
2:15We knew he was hurt. Hmm. Yeah. Yeah. Wait, he was injured in the preseason, but didn't we think he was fine?
2:21Yeah. He was practicing all the way up till week one and then ended up to week one.
2:27A regular season at week one game. He would be fine.
2:30And then he didn't even play. So I, yeah, he, he was banged up.
2:35I don't, I remember him not being like full time in training camp.
2:39I don't even, I, I, he might've even gone like a week plus without even practicing, but then he started to ramp up for the season.
2:47We felt pretty confident that he was going to play.
2:50And then the week of week one, he got hurt in practice.
2:53Shanahan lied about it. And you guys remember the rest.
2:57It sucked. Hmm. Okay. So it wasn't quite as simple as we knew he was super injured.
3:02It was, uh, there was some, I don't know about this.
3:05Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. And it was a bad situation, but, but also don't forget about the two years earlier in his
3:12career where he missed almost the entire season. Uh, all right.
3:15Beyond the box score is, uh, is, has its own YouTube channel.
3:19You can just search for beyond the box score on YouTube.
3:22You can listen to the audio feed, but didn't want to promote the great work they're doing.
3:28They're more, you know, longer episodes. Yes. Deep dives.
3:30Uh, but a lot of people really liked that stuff and it's very, very helpful to get you ready for your drafts.
3:37News and notes. Kyle pits three year, $54 million extension with $36 million guaranteed.
3:41Jamie does. Um, does that change the rankings for Kyle pits at all this long-term commitment?
3:46No, but it's obviously encouraging that the Falcons, you know, are showing that they want him to be there.
3:52Uh, the addition of Kevin Stefanski, I think should be great for Kyle pits.
3:57Uh, the lack of, you know, proven targets aside from Drake London should be great for Kyle pits.
4:02So it's a, it's a very good situation, you know, understandably so that there's going to be fantasy managers concerned about, can
4:09he produce at the level that we saw last year?
4:12Again, can he do it with Drake London on the field?
4:15Cause a lot of his great games came when London were out.
4:19Uh, but I'm hopeful. I think just the, uh, really the addition of Stefanski should be huge for him.
4:25So, um, I think Kyle pits will push to be a top five tight end.
4:30I would prefer to draft him closer to tight end seven or eight.
4:34Uh, but he has that upside as we've seen before in two of his seasons so far in the NFL.
4:40He's been fifth in my projections or higher pretty much all off season.
4:44And I think this just makes it easier for me to trust the, that the Stefanski history and the talent we believe
4:51pits has the fact that Atlanta is committed to him in this significant way makes it easier for me to trust the projections.
4:58But, and Adam, you mentioned this 12 games with Drake London last year.
5:02He averaged 9.6 PPR points per game. That's good for a tight end.
5:06I guess we're, we're, we're looking for more than that.
5:09We're at double digits on average would be good for a tight end and anything north of like 11, 12 would be amazing.
5:16And so I'm, I'm, I'm, I want to settle for Kyle pits on draft day.
5:20I don't want to target him. I don't want to take them as one of the first five titles off the board.
5:27But I do see, I do see some appeal like the fellas talked about.
5:31Yeah. The, I'm not really a pits guy, but the appeal to me is that he's going 95th.
5:37And even if you're not a pits guy, you know, that's even if he averages 9 points, he'd probably do a little bit better than that.
5:45But you know, uh, to justify 95th overall, if he gets you to 10 and a half points per game, it's really not that bad of a pick.
5:54Nope, not at all. Okay. Um, so there's not going to be a supplemental draft for Brendan Sorsby.
5:59Although right. Call. Right. Call. Right. Call. I mean, they've never had, they've never, I don't think they've done this to someone.
6:06Been like, sorry. Have we ever had a guy that may place 10,000 bets on college football while he was playing college football?
6:13I mean, Kayshawn Booty was arrested for gambling and then he didn't have any repercussions.
6:18He had already been drafted into the NFL, correct?
6:20Mm-hmm. Was he? He went through the regular draft.
6:23But they didn't suspend him. James Williams was suspended for gambling.
6:27He wasn't, okay. He wasn't suspended for a full season.
6:30He gambled when he was in the NFL. Right.
6:32So Kayshawn Booty didn't. I, to me, the equivalent would be like they suspended Kayshawn Booty for his rookie year after he was drafted.
6:40Kayshawn Booty bet while he was in the NFL?
6:43No. Well, he bet when he was in college.
6:45Okay. Including, I believe, LSU games. I believe. Um, I don't know.
6:49I don't really think it's the right call. Um, I mean, I think it's the boring.
6:54We wanted to see this happen in the chaos that would unfold.
6:58He's just happy because he's off the hook for having his rookie draft.
7:02Oh, dynasty, dynasty commissioners who have already, already had the rookie drafts are extremely, this is the right call.
7:08Um, but I just think the other thing is like, it's, it, they, what they said makes perfect sense.
7:13They don't have enough time before the supplemental draft was happened to investigate like what exactly he's done to get over this problem.
7:21Oh, come on. I don't, I don't know. It, and it doesn't sound like he's shown enough contrition to them.
7:27Okay. I, I just think, I just think that it seems like they're being a little selective with this criteria.
7:33Um, I don't, Mike Florio for, you know, went through and said, there's nothing in the CBA that talks about that kind of stuff.
7:40It's like, he's not represented by the union. The CBA doesn't apply to him, but it does.
7:45It does outline rules for the supplemental draft. I they're going to, which is at the, at the NFL's discretion.
7:52They're going to, I think probably Sue and we'll see what happens.
7:55Oh, I'm, I would assume so after the last six months.
7:59Yeah. I, I, it's not like I have a ton of sympathy for him, but you know, you can't gamble on games,
8:06but you know, he's, he's not a criminal. I think you should let him move on with his life.
8:11Um, all right. They will. He'll get drafted next year.
8:14No, he's, he can go play football in Canada.
8:17This is a real big setback for his career.
8:20Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Can, can I win my league now?
8:23It is. Okay, fine. Um, Nate Atkins of the athletic in case you're doing a rookie draft now, which is silly.
8:30They said so far in Rams camp, neither Ty Simpson nor Stetson Bennett have stood out ahead of the other to be the backup to Matthew Stafford.
8:38And yesterday, do you think it's not silly to do a rookie draft?
8:42December. December. Yeah. As I said, like I said, yes, you said, let's get the rookie draft going for bake burger.
8:48I said, let's not going to happen before December.
8:51I want to see these guys in action before we draft them.
8:55We should know now. Um, I think, look, there are some wide receivers out there and maybe running backs too, that are
9:02free agents or in Brandon, I use case could be traded.
9:05That could certainly impact the way you feel about a rookie.
9:08Uh, I'll, I'll, you know, I'll use the JK Dobbins example.
9:12I drafted RJ Harvey and then JK Dobbins got signed and that I wouldn't have drafted.
9:17I don't, I don't think I would have drafted RJ Harvey where I drafted him.
9:21It's a big deal. So if Stefan Diggs goes to a place that has a rookie wide receiver that you like, I
9:28think you're probably going to knock him down a few spots.
9:31So I would say training camp. I don't know why you have to do it now.
9:36The season, you know, the season doesn't start until September.
9:39Why do we have to do a rookie draft now?
9:43Why? There's just no reason. Just impatient. I think the idea would be is to first off, it's fun.
9:48That's the most important thing. Second of all, like it encourages trades because then somebody may say, oh, Adam's pissed about RJ Harvey.
9:55Now that JK Dobbins is there, maybe I'll offer him a second round pick for 2027.
10:00That doesn't encourage trades. That, that, that, no, the JK Dobbins signing with the Broncos doesn't encourage trades.
10:06Just, just ruin someone or just hurt someone's value.
10:09Also, when we get to training camp, we're going to get to draft six times a week, every week for six weeks.
10:16I don't get, I'd like to do a draft right now.
10:19Yeah, but you're a fantasy analyst. I can't even say most people aren't doing that many drafts.
10:24You go, I don't know one dynasty league that I'm in where people were like, oh man, we should really wait.
10:31This sucks. Except yours. Yeah. I understand that like you're itching to do a draft.
10:35David's muted. He's trying to talk. Oh yeah. You're itching to do a draft.
10:40I get that. But that's the only good reason for doing a draft right now.
10:44All right. Anyway. Could Keith chime in on this one.
10:47Would it be bad if a dynasty league did a two round rookie draft or even a three round rookie draft now,
10:54and then another draft in reverse order when training camp starts for all the rookies that didn't make it and might be
11:01getting some buzz along with what other veterans are on the waiver wire.
11:05I'm okay with whatever a commissioner wants to decide.
11:08I just wish this commissioner would decide and give us a date for the draft.
11:12Oh, roughly late July. It was a big deal.
11:15Roughly late July. Okay. I'm going to be at Glacier National Park for a lot of late July, so I'd prefer it not.
11:22You'll be fine. It's an untimed draft. You'll be fine.
11:25And Gino Smith yesterday said it seemed like the investigation, his assault, I guess, investigation was going to be wrapping up, but not the case.
11:33He is being investigated right now for assault. So another bad headline, but don't know what happened.
11:38That's Gino Smith. All right, we're going to take a break and come back and get into players 13 through 18 in our PPR consensus rankings.
11:46Devon H. Chan, can you be on what we think is going to be a bad offense and not a high pass
11:53volume offense and have a great season? Well, you have to probably go back to 2025 Devon H.
11:58Chan. We'll explain more after this on Fantasy Football today.
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12:30That's code podcast at gruns.co. The Dolphins are 25th in scoring last year, and they could be worse than that.
12:36You know, there could be a big difference between 25th and 30th, for example, but they were 25th in scoring last year.
12:43You probably knew they were not good there, but did you know that they were 30th in pass attempts per game last season?
12:50They threw 28.2 times per game. And Devon Achan had 67 catches.
12:54He had over 80 targets, and he was the number five running back in PPR.
12:58And that was with Tyreek Hill for three and a half games, but Jalen Waddell for much of the year.
13:05Anyway, 13th for Achan. Dave, what do you think?
13:07I'm okay with it if you want to get a running back with PPR upside, but you cannot expect him to do what he did last year.
13:16I've talked a lot about 20% declines with running backs that have a lot of work.
13:21I think we're looking at a 20% decline for Achan for a different reason.
13:25This is an offense that's similar as far as the playbook goes, but different in how it will operate.
13:31The track record of play caller Bobby Slowick and quarterback Malik Willis suggest exactly that.
13:35And we saw it already last year. You referenced this before the break.
13:39Devon Achan with Tua, 14 games last year, 20.8 PPR points per game.
13:43We love that. Two games without Tua, 16.1. And so if we take his average from last year, we deduct 20%, which
13:50I think is going to be fair. I think his targets are going to go down by 20%.
13:56If not more, then we're talking about a running back that if things are okay, can still get you 16 PPR points per game.
14:03And that's right in that range of other receivers we talked about yesterday and we'll talk about today.
14:09End of round one, beginning of round two, much different story in non-PPR.
14:13Although maybe not that much of a difference. I just don't think he'll score as much.
14:18The last point I'll make on Achan, you mentioned it.
14:2185 targets, 67 catches, almost 500 yards receiving four touchdowns.
14:24That was last year. It was 43% of his total PPR points coming through the air.
14:29And if that drops because Willis doesn't check down, because the play caller doesn't call plays designed to Achan, because Achan maybe doesn't play as much.
14:37Oh boy, we could be looking at a disappointing year from him.
14:40You mentioned that he may not score that much.
14:43He didn't score that much last year. Scored 12 touchdowns, I believe, last year.
14:48That's a lot. I'm not sure he'll score that many this year.
14:51It's the fewest of any running back who finished top five.
14:55In fact, since in the last five seasons, since we've had a 17 game schedule, there have been nine running backs in
15:01the last five seasons, almost two per year, who have finished top five in full PPR with 12 or fewer touchdowns.
15:08And Achan's done it twice. And by the way, B.
15:11John Robinson did it last year and he was RB2.
15:14So I think all the things that you can say about Achan, he won't score that much.
15:19He, they don't, they won't throw a lot. Their offense will be bad.
15:23They all applied last year. I think we're worried that it's, that all three of those things are going to be even worse this year.
15:31Heath is 13th too high for Achan? I think for me, and if I'd have been here, probably would have said the
15:38same thing about McCaffrey earlier in the week. But for me, Achan is probably the scariest guy at the one-two turn, both
15:45because I think if you pass on him, you might be passing on a league winner.
15:49And I think if you draft him, you might be drafting a bust.
15:53I think the talent wise, like there's no doubt.
15:56I worry about Malik Willis' running back target rate, but the sample size is so minuscule that I don't want to take too much of from that.
16:05Especially when it's, we're talking about a team that literally does not have a wide receiver that like we're drafting in the top 150 picks.
16:12Right. So like, who are they going to throw to if they don't throw to Devon Achan?
16:17Besides Greg Dulcich, because obviously we know he's going to be awesome.
16:21Let me give you the story on Willis and his target rate to running backs.
16:26Minuscule in the NFL, 13.1% target rate. Heath, I assume you would agree that that's a low rate.
16:31That's a low rate. When I said minuscule, I meant the number of passes he's thrown.
16:36That's fair. No, I get it. It's a small sample.
16:39Sure. So, small sample because he hasn't been a starter, hasn't played that much in the NFL.
16:45But in the NFL, when he's played, it's 13.1%.
16:47He played a lot in college. 9.1% was his running back target rate in college.
16:52Who throws to running backs in college, though? They just don't really.
16:56Almost nobody. Yeah. They just don't really do that.
16:58But it's the pass attempts for Willis. I mean, I don't think he's thrown more than like 24 in a game or something like that.
17:06It's shockingly low. Jamie, your thoughts on Achan real quick here.
17:10Oh, not real quick. And then we'll get to our next guy.
17:13I mean, very similar to what the guys have said.
17:16The over-under for his touchdown, the player prop is five and a half from Vegas.
17:21So that tells you what his rushing touchdown total could be, which is not very good just by comparison.
17:27Brees Hall doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. That's the same number for him.
17:31Same number for Ramondre Stevenson as well. So you're looking at, you know, low touchdown potential.
17:36I think really the reception's crater. We're going to be in trouble.
17:40So if that's what goes away, rushing production will still be, I think, okay.
17:44Because I do think this is going to be one of the more underrated offensive lines.
17:49I think they've done a good job of filling this unit up.
17:53And I think that will actually be a strength.
17:55But again, Willis is not going to do the same things that on the Valoa does.
18:00It's funny. Like if you look at the running backs, just based on our consensus rankings, one above and one below.
18:07If he was Chase Brown on the Bengals, we would probably be talking about him as a top five overall pick.
18:13So I think just looking at the team, it's really about the team.
18:17And the context right now is just not great in where he's at.
18:21So I see some comments on the chat here about Ken Walker.
18:25Yeah, you can make an argument. Ken Walker's in a much better situation than Devon Achan.
18:30It's just a matter of who you trust more at this point.
18:34So I think Achan belongs in round two. It's a matter of where you want to take him in round two.
18:40Like Keith said, you get to the one-two turn.
18:43Just to reference the draft that we recently did last week, I passed on him at that spot.
18:48I took James Cook and Justin Jefferson head of Devon Achan, which is how I have it right now.
18:54Okay. So Brees Hall, I think, is a good name to mention because if you're looking for an inspiration, 2023 Brees Hall,
19:01he was the number two running back in PPR, but number six per game, number five per game and half PPR.
19:08Not that good though in non-PPR, 11th per game.
19:10But in that year he had 223 carries. He had 76 catches, average four and a half yards per carry.
19:16The Jets were 30th in points per game. They threw a lot though, but they also had Garrett Wilson with 168 targets.
19:23So he's one inspiration for Achan, Brees Hall in 2023.
19:26Terrible offense, a ton of catches. The other guy I think would be Kamara in 2024.
19:31The Saints actually weren't that bad when he was playing.
19:34They were 13th in points per game when he played, but they were 24th in points per game for the full season.
19:41But he's another guy. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry.
19:44Achan should do better than that. He had 68 catches, 228 carries, 68 catches.
19:49That was good enough to be a top six running back per game in half and full PPR.
19:54Okay. Next up is Justin Jefferson. Um, man, I've seen when I look at comments, Heath, about Jefferson, I see, I see
20:01them just run the gamut of actually, I think I see them be like completely, uh, there's nothing in the middle.
20:07People were like, Oh, you're crazy. Justin Jefferson 14th, you know, he's gonna be so good or I'm not touching Justin Jefferson 14th.
20:14That's kind of the, the feel I'm getting right now.
20:17Heath, uh, what do you think about Jefferson this year?
20:21I think I'm, if you're looking for somebody who's lukewarm on Justin Jefferson, it's probably me.
20:25Okay. Found him. And it's not, my feelings on him aren't really that much different than Achan because I do think again
20:32at that one, two turn, he's a guy who could really make or break your season.
20:37And I think like I could see both possibilities.
20:40Kyler Murray either should be better than JJ McCarthy or JJ McCarthy should be better than he was last year.
20:46I don't really have any reason to doubt that Justin Jefferson lost a step or anything.
20:51I'm not so sure it's going to be a high volume pass offense and Jordan Addison definitely matters in this offense.
20:58So I'm not sure we get 10 targets per game from Justin Jefferson.
21:02I'm not sure he has the top three to five wide receiver upside this year, but I do think it's a big bounce back season for him.
21:10It's just, he could have a bounce back season and still be a bust at the one, two turn.
21:16What would that look like? Well, I've got him at 16th overall.
21:19Um, so I guess I'm a little bit lower and I've got him projected who for 99 catches, 1300 yards and six touchdowns.
21:26Yeah. So you guys let's compare him to, let's say, um, Nico Collins, George Pickens and AJ Brown.
21:32Uh, does Justin Jefferson have more upside than all three of those guys?
21:36AJ Brown, George Pickens, Nico Collins. I would say similar.
21:39Yeah. Very similar. I mean, again, like if you're talking talent, he obviously has more upside.
21:44If you're talking situation, circumstance, all the things that go into play with his quarterback and the talent around him, then I think it's certainly arguable.
21:52So, um, look, you know, we're, we're, we're hoping Kyler Murray is the answer.
21:56And it's, I think, easy to make an argument on both sides of it because we've seen the pros and cons of, of what Kyler Murray has done.
22:05You know, he has one season with the receiver of this caliber and it was the first season he was paired with
22:12the Andre Hopkins, who was a very similar age to what Jefferson is now.
22:16And Hopkins was a superstar that year. And so Jefferson can certainly do that.
22:20You look at the games Jefferson played last year with Carson Wentz.
22:24It was 16.6 PPR points per game in five games.
22:27Carson Wentz played a game and a half of that with, you know, a bad left shoulder, uh, in one of the
22:34games he could barely lift his arm, you know?
22:37So is Jefferson capable of doing that? I think if you, if that's the number you're looking at, then this is the
22:43range that you're drafting him in, which is very similar to the numbers we talked about with Drake London yesterday, who was a 16.8 point per game guy.
22:52So, you know, the hope would be, is that Jefferson's talent, Kyler Murray's talent, Kevin O'Connell's offense, all those things come into
22:59play and we get the type of player that Jefferson's capable of.
23:03Now, I think the question is, is he a bust or does he, you know, live up to the expectations of the people that are pro JJ?
23:11You know, like, you know, again, I like to see the comments in the chat.
23:16So Kevin Bowers says, I have the 13th pick.
23:18I'd love for JJ to fall. I think a lot of people that are pro Justin Jefferson are hoping that we're getting
23:25peak Justin Jefferson and top three caliber player, forget it alone, let alone wide receiver.
23:30So that to me is not realistic in the current frame of framework of where he's playing right now, because I don't
23:36think Kyler Murray, even in Kevin O'Connell's offense, is capable of helping Justin Jefferson get back to that level of production.
23:43Because as he said, Jordan Addison, the addition of Juwan Jennings, TJ Hawkins is still there.
23:48And this is still a team that wants to be balanced and run the ball.
23:52So I think Jefferson is in the next tier of wide receivers, you know, after you get past really the top four,
23:59I think you can make an argument certainly with him versus Drake London.
24:03Once you get past the top four, it's Jefferson, London, Lamb, those type of players.
24:08You want to throw an equal Collins, AJ Brown, George Pickens.
24:11It's definitely worth debating all those guys. And maybe Malik neighbors and Rashi Rice had no health or issues.
24:17They would be in the conversation, too. So I think Jefferson late round one, early round two.
24:22That's the perfect spot for him. Like he said, you know, you're hoping that he doesn't take that or play at the
24:29same level that we saw, produced at the same level, because I think he still played fine, but produced at the same level.
24:36Hopefully it's just Kyler Murray being, you know, able to bounce back and motivated and all the things that we see from him.
24:43Can he help, you know, get that type of production out of Jefferson or at least the Carson Wentz type of production
24:50out of Jefferson, which I do think is realistic.
24:53Well, here's my question. If Jefferson has similar upside to AJ Brown, Nico Collins and George Pickens, does he does he have
25:00more downside than all of those guys? And if he has similar upside and more downside, then why would I rank him ahead of those three players?
25:08I would argue he's got a little more upside than those three players, and that's why we've seen him before last year, 2024, 2023.
25:15Well, north of 18 PPR points per game each of those two years.
25:19I don't know if we've had I don't know if we've ever had a Nico year that good.
25:25But I know we've had an AJ Brown year that good, and I don't think we've had a Pickens year that good.
25:32So there's a little bit more to Justin Jefferson ceiling, but everything has to go right.
25:37And that includes Kyler Murray playing at a level better than where he was at in his last few years in Arizona.
25:43And I've watched a lot of Arizona film lately because I'm trying to get a beat on their offense with Mike LaFleur.
25:50And Kyler was way more bad than good last year, just not on the same page with his receivers.
25:56A lot of off-target throws. His deep throws were ugly, especially.
25:59And that does make me nervous about Jefferson hitting that upside.
26:03But I also think he's going to get 10 targets per game because he's always gotten around 10 targets per game.
26:09Even last year when he absolutely sucked, he was getting around 10 targets per game, maybe a little bit lower than that.
26:16Not really, though. He was, especially with Wentz he was.
26:19Well, with Wentz, yes. I think the one big – like I'm not saying Carson Wentz is a better passer than Kyler Murray.
26:26I don't think that's true at this stage of their careers.
26:30But in those games, five games that Wentz started, they averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game.
26:35I don't think Kyler's ever averaged 34, and he's been lower than that most years.
26:39So I think – like Dave was talking about a 20% reduction for Devon Aitchin.
26:44And I think it's probably – if you're talking about Kyler versus those Wentz games, it's probably at least a 10% reduction
26:51in the number of pass attempts that they're going to have.
26:54And that could mean a 10% reduction in targets.
26:57Now we're talking about maybe the low 8s per game.
27:00Because you're right, Adam. It's not like he's a lock for 10 targets per game.
27:04Even in 2024, I was wrong, 9.1 targets per game.
27:07Last year, he was around 8 targets per game.
27:10But I still think he's going to command the most targets easily in Minnesota.
27:15That's not saying anything. Sure. But it's also, again, looking at Kyler's history, he's never had – including Hopkins, a receiver of this caliber.
27:22He's never had a play caller of this caliber.
27:25And so will that allow him to be a little bit more open and free?
27:29And obviously what trust level will Kevin O'Connell have in him?
27:33It's an unknown. We just don't know how this is all going to play out in terms of how this team is going to look.
27:40We're also asking – he said they're going to lean on the run or run the ball.
27:46I don't know how he phrases it. But Tina wants to run the ball, which makes sense.
27:51But we're asking that from a 32-year-old lead running back and a guy in Jordan Mason who's been a career backup.
27:57So is that where the focus of the offense is when they go out and they add a third wide receiver like
28:04Jennings, which they didn't need and certainly is a luxury.
28:07And now you have Jefferson, Addis, and Jennings. Like this is a passing attack that if there was a strong quarterback here,
28:14we would be saying Cowboys, Bengals, that type of situation.
28:17There's that much upside. Well, but they have a great defense.
28:21Again, it's asking a lot of – I'm sorry.
28:23They have a great defense though. That's the difference.
28:26They do have a great defense, but I think the defense takes a little bit of a step back.
28:32They lost a lot of key personnel this offseason.
28:35So I think just in the case of Kyler, again, this is where the unknown is.
28:40So to compare him to Nico who has a very inconsistent CJ Stroud and maybe some more competition for targets that were
28:46a little different for Nico Collins this year with Tankdale back and a better Jaden Higgins.
28:51AJ Brown's obviously a wild card because he could be amazing with Drake May or he could just be the same type
28:58of player we saw last year, which I think I would argue Justin Jefferson's upside more.
29:03George Pickens is clearly second on the team in terms of where his targets will be.
29:08So if you're looking at that comparison. I just think in the case of Jefferson, there is a lot of hope and
29:15you're banking on his skill level, his talent level, his history of production.
29:19And again, if you're nitpicking and you're saying, OK, this was all J.J.
29:23McCarthy, which I don't think is necessarily fully fair, but obviously it's the main reason why he struggled.
29:28I go back to again to the Carson Wentz games and is just that from a production standpoint, forget about like he
29:35said, we're not talking about Kyler versus Carson. It's not really about that.
29:39It's just the production standpoint of what Jefferson still was able to do with a more competent quarterback.
29:45And if Kyler Murray, I think is competent in this offense, we saw it with Nick Mullins.
29:50We saw it with Josh Dobbs. We saw it with other quarterbacks in Kevin O'Connell system when Kirk Cousins blew out his Achilles.
29:57There's a track record here of just Jefferson still producing with almost anybody who's throwing the ball except J.J.
30:03McCarthy. So the hope would be is that Kyler Murray gets him back to that level of production.
30:08Again, the Wentz level of production, anything above that, you're talking about a superstar.
30:13So I'm hoping for 16 to 17 PPR points per game, and I think Jefferson can deliver that in that 10 to 15 range in your drafts.
30:21I just looked. It was 16.3 points per game in the games with Carson Wentz.
30:26So I think I've got him projected for just a little bit less than that, but very, very close.
30:31But 15 and a half sounds great. But didn't he not score a touchdown?
30:36He didn't have a single touchdown in those games.
30:39And he still averaged 16 points? That's insane. Yeah.
30:41That is. The Vegas line. He's a very good receiver.
30:44The Vegas line for him is 1,200 receiving yards and seven and a half touchdowns.
30:49Yikes. Well, Vegas lines, you know, look, they can't project 17 games for everyone or, you know, everyone would take the under on every player.
30:57Right. So you have to. They're going to be a little lower because 1,200 yards sounds pretty low.
31:02I'd go over on the yards and under on the touchdowns probably.
31:06Last year was only 1,048 yards and 17 games with bad quarterback play.
31:10Okay. Let's get to our next two guys. Let's lump them together.
31:14Omari and Hampton and Ashton Gentty. A couple second-year running backs who finished about, you know, pretty similar in points per game.
31:20They were both 16th or 17th per game in non and half PPR.
31:24Hampton was 13th per game in full PPR. Gentty was 15th per game.
31:28Hampton had 32 catches in nine games. Gentty 55 catches in 17 games.
31:32You've got new offensive minds for both players. You've got better offensive lines for both players.
31:37Better offensive times for both players. I'm going to keep the rhyme going there.
31:42So who do you like better, Heath? Hampton or Gentty?
31:45I currently have Omari and Hampton just a touch higher than Ashton Gentty, but I think I've changed that three times this offseason already.
31:52I've got them both right around 15 fantasy points per game.
31:56I think if I would say that I think the upsides may be just a little bit higher for Gentty if everything goes right.
32:03But Mike McDaniel in Los Angeles and the general state of the Chargers offensive line quarterback, everything else makes it more likely
32:10that things go right for Omari and Hampton. Dave, who do you like better, Hampton or Gentty?
32:15I'm glad I'm not the only one that's gone back and forth between these two.
32:20And I would imagine that this is a decision that a lot of fantasy managers are going to have to make.
32:26I agree with Heath. Hampton over Gentty. But it's close.
32:29Jamie? Hampton over Gentty. Is it close? Of course.
32:32Have you flip-flopped? I have not. All right. So at least one of us hasn't flip-flopped that much.
32:37I've got my reasons too, but it's just damn close.
32:41They're both really good. There's just so much potential for both.
32:44I am more worried about Hampton losing touches to someone else than I am Gentty.
32:49But I'm also more worried about the Raiders having like six rushing touchdowns as a team than I am Hampton.
32:55It's funny you say that because that's really my concern for Gentty is that you have Clint Kubiak coming from Seattle where
33:01he loved to use two running backs. And they drafted a guy that I think a lot of us were hoping to
33:08see end up someplace else in Mike Washington. And so I know Kubiak has said you don't take a player like Gentty
33:15off the field as compared to Christian McCaffrey. I get all that.
33:19But I just wonder if his history and the player that's knocking on the door behind him, which shouldn't take Gentty off
33:25the field for significant stretches, but maybe for some key opportunities mostly at the goal line given Mike Washington's potential.
33:32I just wonder like Hampton could lose reception totals to – my guess would be Keaton Mitchell more so than Kamani Vidal.
33:38But I do think that we could see both guys coming off the field.
33:43I just look at Kubiak's history and it suggests like, okay, we may have a problem here if Mike Washington is actually good.
33:50Washington is 6'1", 223 pounds. So that's a profile for a short yardage back, I'd say.
33:55But Gentty is also, you know, big and can handle that.
33:58But Washington is kind of like a Ken Walker back in that he – his profile anyway is a home run hitter.
34:05A lot of like zero and negative yard runs, a lot of home runs.
34:09But look, I don't think we're too – right, as you said, I don't think we're too concerned about him taking away major opportunities for Gentty.
34:17For Hampton, I want to point out with the catches that, you know, Hampton was on pace for 60 catches.
34:23But if you look at it, it was – the only time he got a lot of targets was when either Najee
34:30Harris was out or Kamani Vidal was out basically.
34:33Other than that, he would get two targets basically.
34:36It's kind of weird though because it's not like Najee or Vidal were actually getting a lot of targets.
34:42So I don't know what to make of it, but he would have – They trusted those guys more in pass protection, right?
34:49Yeah. It could be that. I also wonder if it had to do with the offensive line.
34:54What was the offensive line like in the games where Hampton had a lot of targets and catches?
34:59Because if it was Swiss cheese, Herbert was probably checking down a lot more often.
35:04I mean maybe. I'm going to just go ahead and say I don't think he comes close to 60 catches.
35:10Agreed. But, you know, you do have Mike McDaniel with that history.
35:14Yep. I think that, you know, the thing with McDaniel is he got two very different seasons out of his running backs.
35:21He had a season with Raheem Mostert where he led the league in rushing touchdowns.
35:25He had a season with Devon HN which he was one of the most prolific pass catching running backs in the league.
35:32And so here you have Hampton who showed a lot of great things last year pre-ankle injury, post-ankle injury, when to Dave's
35:39point the offensive line was Swiss cheese. I mean, I just love the idea of Mike McDaniel having this type of player
35:46at his disposal and this offense at his disposal.
35:48And so hopefully you get a healthy Joe Alt and a healthy Rashawn Slater.
35:53And now you have what could be one of the best offensive lines in the league with one of the most creative
36:00play callers in the league with a first-round talent at running back.
36:03So it's obvious that these two guys should be drafted very close to each other.
36:08I certainly understand if somebody wants to take Gentry ahead of Hampton.
36:12Gentry got a significant offensive line upgrade with Lindermom and Kubiak should be much better.
36:16And the passing game should be much better with the addition of both quarterbacks that they got, whether it's Mendoza or Cousins,
36:23whoever's going to start the majority of the games.
36:26Hopefully it's Mendoza and he looks like the player we saw at Indiana.
36:30So there's just a lot to love about both these guys.
36:33And when you start to compare them to the running backs ahead of them, McCaffrey and his questions, HN and his questions,
36:40Chase Brown and his up and down performance last year with or without Samaj AP.
36:44Like there's going to be a lot of people that are going to say, why is Gentry not ahead of those guys?
36:51And ADP, I think suggested with Chase Brown for sure.
36:54And the same thing with Hampton. Like, you know, there's just so much to love about both these guys.
37:00Could we be wrong? Could Keaton Mitchell be the pass catching back there?
37:04And then, you know, we're looking at a, you know, sub 30 catch season for Hampton.
37:09Sure. Could Gentry still be good, but not great.
37:12And, you know, continue to get all this work on an offense that is led by an aging and, you know, failing
37:19Kirk Cousins at this point or just a not ready yet Fernando Mendoza.
37:23Like there's a lot of things that can go wrong, but the upside to me is worth it.
37:28So I love these guys in early round too.
37:31Okay. I got to take a break. Sorry, Heath.
37:34I'll get to you and just let's take a break.
37:37Heath, you can hop in as soon as we're back to talk about Hampton and Gentry.
37:42We'll be right back. We're back. Hampton versus Gentry.
37:45Heath, you were saying? Well, this isn't really a Hampton versus Gentry comment as much as it is maybe a transition into
37:51the next guy we're going to talk about. But the three guys who are directly ahead of these rookies in my projections
37:58are three guys that I have a hard time with in the rankings versus them.
38:03It's Derek Henry, obvious reasons, not just the age, but losing the center that Gentry just gained, losing the fullback, new offensive coordinator.
38:10It's Saquon Barkley who may have more upside, but didn't look near as good last year.
38:15And then it's Josh Jacobs who could have more volume and could be on a better offense than Gentry, but also has the legal problems.
38:22And so I think comparing these young guys to those old vets is what I struggle with as much as I struggle with comparing Gentry to Hampton.
38:31I like Walker better than all. Yeah, I'm so annoyed that you said this because I was about to say the same thing.
38:38The hardest part I have here is it's not Gentry versus Hampton.
38:42It's what about Henry and Barkley and, yes, Kenneth Walker and not Jeremiah Love for me, but maybe for some people.
38:48And Josh Jacobs who was arrested and then released on domestic violence charges, but I think they haven't charged him yet, as I recall.
38:55Yeah, it's a big tier of running back, isn't it?
38:59I mean, the fact that the two young guys are at the top, excluding Love, I feel like the only reason they're
39:05at the top is because they're young. I don't know.
39:08It's not just because they're young, but because those older guys all have concerns.
39:13Well, do you think they'd be ahead of Jacobs if Jacobs didn't have any off-field issues?
39:18I'd rather have the two young running backs. It would be close for me.
39:22I just don't know even what the justification is.
39:25They're like, Gentry had a really bad year last year.
39:28Hampton had one good game. It was against the worst run defense in football.
39:32And then he was good when Vidal got hurt against the Cowboys.
39:36Those guys, they didn't – I think we all think they're better than what they showed, but they didn't really show that
39:43much last year, even given their pedigree especially. Right, but last year both of them had to deal with offensive line injuries.
39:49Both of them had play callers that were suspect, and I'm being nice with that term.
39:54And they were rookies. It was their first time in the league.
39:58Hampton especially had to deal with an injury. I'm not saying we have to give them a clean slate, but we're trying to look forward here.
40:06And both of their situations have gotten better. Both of them have a year's worth of experience under their belt, and so
40:13I don't know if it's disqualifying for one or both of them that they had a bad year as a rookie.
40:19No, it's certainly not disqualifying. But I don't think they've proven anything that would put them ahead.
40:24You're speculating. Bijan didn't have the best rookie year, and we still chased after him pretty hard in his second year.
40:31And were we justified in that? I would say so.
40:34He went from 14.5 PPR points to 20.1. As a second-year guy?
40:38All right, so then we can go to Derrick Henry here.
40:41Yeah, he's 46 years old and still finishes at top.
40:44Sorry, I'm— It wouldn't surprise me at this point if you're still doing it.
40:48Yeah, I'm just predicting our show in 2040. We're going to be talking about Derrick Henry in the second round.
40:55He's 32 years old. He was number seven running back last year.
40:58Heath, what did you say? I said that was really good quick math.
41:02I hope I got it right. Jamie, what do you think about Henry compared to the two young dudes?
41:08I mean, look, obviously the safety factor is there for Derrick Henry.
41:12If you just want to believe in his track record, it's tried and true.
41:16You know, from Tennessee to Baltimore, it's just been very productive.
41:20As I said yesterday, like, you could clearly see the path to him leading the league in rushing yards, to leading the league in rushing touchdowns.
41:28He's not going to be heavily involved in the passing game.
41:31He's brought up two very big concerns. You know, losing Linderbaum and losing Ricard are potentially two things that he has to overcome and may struggle with.
41:39Because obviously the offensive line is not as good right now.
41:43They're still trying to figure out who their center is going to be.
41:47And losing Ricard may be something that's a problem for him.
41:50That being said, he's been very successful with Lamar Jackson.
41:53He's been very successful in this environment. And it was kind of the, you know, I always go back to the argument
42:00we made when he left Tennessee and came to Baltimore.
42:03What he's shown, which makes a ton of sense given his profile, is when he's on a winning team, he is extremely successful.
42:10When they're playing from behind, he's not on the field.
42:13He doesn't have the chance to do what he's capable of to the same extent.
42:18And so I think if you still believe in Baltimore, which it's hard not to, you know, given even with the coaching
42:25change, you know, losing Harbaugh is going to be something that may be problematic.
42:29But still, you're looking at a roster that's still very good, at a team that I think is still meant to compete.
42:36And as long as Lamar Jackson healthy, there will be potential to win the division and potentially make a Super Bowl run.
42:42So I think Derrick Henry, you have to get over the age concerns.
42:46Can he continue to defy father time? Just know what you're getting.
42:50You know, and I think mid-round two is a perfect spot for him if you want to put him ahead of probably
42:57four or five of the running backs that we talked about.
43:00You know, as I said yesterday, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Derrick Henry, their profiles I think are very, very set in stone.
43:07You know, nothing's really going to change. Campton could be all over the place.
43:11Jente could be all over the place. Chase Brown with, without some Ajay P.
43:16Ryan, very different numbers than what he gave you last year, A.T.
43:19and his situation. You know, again, just looking at a lot of different things here, I think just Derrick Henry, you know,
43:26is kind of one of the safer picks. So, you know, sorry, I got distracted.
43:31Let's say you're up in the, you know, 14, 15, 16 range in your draft.
43:35And these running backs are all on the board.
43:38Hampton, Jente, Henry. Do you find yourself taking them?
43:41Do you find yourself taking a different position? I think that, you know, there's a chance, especially if you get to the middle of round two, right?
43:49You get to 18. You know, you could pass maybe on these guys and hopefully get Walker or Love in the third round.
43:56Kyron, yeah, if you like. So I'm just wondering, what are your...
44:00Jacobs for sure in round three now. Yeah, right.
44:03What are your tendencies, though, when you're on the clock in this range and you're looking at Jente and Hampton and Henry specifically?
44:10What did you do in round one? You took a wide receiver.
44:14So you took, let's say, St. Brown. And then you're looking at the group of most likely Pickens, Brown, AJ Brown, Nico, Rasheed Rice, those type of players?
44:22Yeah. And the tight ends. And the tight ends.
44:25And then you're hoping for... I would probably lean running back here just to get the player that I want.
44:31Well, who's the player you want? Who's your, you know...
44:34You like these guys? For me, it would be Walker.
44:37If Walker's there, I would take Walker ahead of the two second-year running backs and Henry.
44:42My five players in the rankings from 15 to 19 are Rice, Jefferson, Hampton, Jente, Henry.
44:47So that's kind of where I'd be. Yeah, I think Rice makes a lot of sense.
44:52He'll move up the rankings, you know. He will.
44:55Yeah, if everything, if there's no suspension coming and his knee's okay participating in camp.
45:00I haven't really made my decisions yet about this group.
45:03It's a tricky group. I don't draft Justin Jefferson.
45:05I'm nervous about Jefferson. I don't draft Ashton Jente much.
45:08I'm nervous about him. I think when it comes down to it, and I have to make these decisions, I want to
45:15tie myself to the better offenses here. Which isn't always the easiest thing to predict.
45:20But I definitely think the Chargers are going to have a better offense than the Raiders.
45:25And that's why I'm going. But you did that with your A.J.
45:29Brown selection. Yeah, I do. And I think A.J.
45:31Brown's another guy. Like, let's say his ADP. His ADP, I think, is actually higher than where you guys have him ranked.
45:38But he's 21st right now on Fantasy Pros. But I really could see that going up to the 16-17 range.
45:44I think that's what I have. Okay. Because I thought he was, like, in CBS ADP.
45:49He's 22 for me. Okay. Where is he in the consensus rankings?
45:53He's 20. Well, Heath has him pretty low. Who?
45:56A.J. Brown. Oh, yeah. He's 28th in the consensus rankings.
45:59Right. So, um... You want me to move him up a little so he goes up?
46:04No, that's all right. I just don't think he's going to be a third-round pick in most leagues.
46:09But, yeah, I think he belongs in this discussion.
46:12But I guess I'm just saying, like, it's really tough to make these calls.
46:16There are going to be factors that are completely out of your control.
46:20I'm going to try to... If it's close, I'm going to go with the better offenses or which teams I think will have the better offenses.
46:28So, for me, it's Hampton over Gentie. But how do you have Hampton and Henry?
46:33I'm going to go... I'm going to... Yeah. I mean, I hate...
46:37I can't stand it anymore with Derrick Henry. I'm wrong every year.
46:40Um... I actually think Saquon Barkley is... I think I'd take Barkley over Henry.
46:45I would, too. I would three. I have Barkley one spot behind Henry.
46:49Yeah. Yeah, it's a similar profile, but I think more catches...
46:52Definitely more catches. Potentially a lot more catches this year.
46:55Potentially. But, I mean, he needs six more catches for every one more touchdown that Henry scores than him.
47:01That's true, but you also get the receiving yards.
47:04You know, with the... Look, it's tough. It's really tough.
47:07I just... I think, for me, and I don't want people to just do what I'm doing or anything, but I think
47:14Jefferson and Gentie are two guys that I'm not drafting because I'm worried that their offenses are going to hold them back
47:20compared to the other guys in this range. So, you feel the same about A-Chan and Isu?
47:26No. No. No, because A-Chan might wipe both of those guys off the board.
47:30That's interesting, though, because you're... You're... I think from a talent standpoint, you could clearly make a very easy comparison.
47:36Jefferson's talent at his position, A-Chan's talent at his position.
47:39Like, they're two of the best that we've seen in the last five years.
47:43Yeah. I think the more... Like, the thing that I struggle with, and we talked about it with A-Chan already, but like,
47:50A-Chan might just be their entire offense. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
47:55It's a good thing until it's not. I think with A-Chan, you know, he's arguably been the best running back in the
48:02NFL since he's come in the league. You know?
48:05I'm assuming he leads in yards per carry in the last three years.
48:09He's averaging like seven... 5.6 for his career. It's insane.
48:12Right. Yeah. I mean, I don't think he's the best running back, but he's up there.
48:17I... Just makes me like Omar and Hampton more, because I don't know how much of that is A-Chan versus how much
48:23of that is how he was schemed by McDaniel.
48:26Gosh, Jamie, remember that fourth down play where Tua threw to him fourth and goal?
48:31He threw to him at like the 10-yard line, like an idiot.
48:35And A-Chan made everyone miss and scored. He's amazing.
48:37That's A-Chan. That's not McDaniel. I mean, listen, it's the same thing about McCaffrey.
48:42Like, if he does do what Heath just said, and he's their entire offense, and he just dominates touches and stays healthy
48:48and is still involved in the passing game, because I think that's big, you know?
48:53So... It's huge. Can he score? Like, you say 12 touchdowns is a lot.
48:57I think that's a pretty good number for what this offense is going to probably produce.
49:02It's going to have to be at least four receiving touchdowns, I think.
49:06I think it's going to have to be just north of 10 touchdowns to some degree, you know?
49:1210 or more, you know, for him to justify being taken in the first 12, 12 overall picks, if not just the first 15 overall picks.
49:20But he's going to have to be north of 50 catches.
49:23He's probably going to have to be 1,500-plus total yards.
49:26Like, it could certainly happen. I mean, he's that good of a player.
49:30And so I think the one thing about the Dolphins is, like, if you remove, which is hard to do, if you
49:37remove the quarterback and the receiving core, the roster's not that terrible.
49:41I mean, I'm discouraged by all the bad reports about Malik Willis because I think he played very well.
49:47You know, I'll go back to what I said, I think it was last week, like, when you're going to read stuff about training camp and minicamp stuff.
49:55Like, he's not going to look pretty. There's going to be things that he does that just are not going to be
50:02aesthetically right in terms of what you're judging quarterback play on.
50:05He's a playmaker. Like, that's what is going to be the thing that defines him and defines this team and this offense.
50:12Like, you saw it in Green Bay last year.
50:15You know, when he had to start those two-and-a-half games, whatever it was, play in those two-and-a-half games, like, he's going to make some incredible throws.
50:23He's going to make some incredible plays. And I think just given the fact that the lack of talent around him, he's going to look bad at times.
50:32Like, you know, I think it was the Miami Herald report saying that Quinn Ewers looked better than him.
50:37Well, I'm sure Quinn Ewers, when they're asking him to throw a simple out route or something like that, he's going to
50:44probably do it with a little bit more – he's going to be boring in doing it and get the job done.
50:51Like, Malik Willis is going to make a 50-yard throw that Quinn Ewers can't make.
50:56Or, you know, a play or extend a play or do the things that, you know, a borderline superstar quarterback can do.
51:02He just doesn't do it consistently enough. So there's just a lot of flaws with the Dolphins and a lot of flaws
51:09with this team, and that's the concern I have with HM.
51:13All right, let's take a look at George Pickens here, our last player in players 13 through 18.
51:18Pickens is 18th in our consensus PPR rankings. And, you know, I want to show our producer today, Sam, made a couple of graphics here.
51:26I want to show you guys this just for some context of big ADP risers from 2024 to 2025 and how they do.
51:33Because Pickens is obviously a really big riser. So Trey McBride – unfortunately, a lot of these players got hurt.
51:39But Trey McBride went up 18 spots. That was a great pick.
51:43Malik Neighbors went up 40 spots. He got hurt.
51:46George Kittle, 19 spots. So this is – again, this is from 2024 to 2025, the biggest ADP risers that I found.
51:52Kittle was a good pick. Burrow and Higgins, they were up about 30 spots each because they were coming off bad 2023 seasons and then good 2024 seasons.
52:01I mean, it's kind of hard to evaluate them.
52:04McLaurin, though, he was a bad pick. He went up 32 spots.
52:07Pollard was a bad pick. He was a 17-spot riser.
52:11Xavier Worthy was a terrible pick, but he got hurt.
52:14McLaurin got hurt. You know, so many of these guys got hurt.
52:17Romo Dunze was a good pick. He went up 17 spots.
52:21Jackson Smith and Jigba went up 45 spots from 2024 to 2025.
52:24And now he's going up another 20-something. He was a great pick.
52:28Take a look at the next page, though. Now, all these guys here were picked about – pick 100 or later in 2023.
52:35Some of them way behind that. Like, Ty J.
52:38Spears went up 84 spots. Brock Bowers went up 81 spots.
52:41He got hurt. Jaden Daniels, 72 spots. He got hurt.
52:44McConkie, Chase Brown, Cortland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Jamison Williams, TJ Hawkinson.
52:48Here's my point. You have a lot of guys every year that are going to rise in ADP because they had their first good year.
52:56And Pickens is that guy. He's one of those guys this year.
53:00A lot of the players on this list were busts last year.
53:03So, you know, I do have that thought with George Pickens.
53:07I understand the situations were very, very different compared to his first three seasons.
53:11But it's a big jump to be taking him 18th overall.
53:14Dave, do you have any concerns about him being able to repeat a terrific season where he finished as wide receiver six per game?
53:22I have concerns about him hitting the ceiling. We can split up his year any way you want to figure out what his true average per game is.
53:30But overall on the year, he was at 17.2 PPR points per game.
53:34And that's right around where he was in six games with Lamb and Quinn and Williams late in the year for Dallas.
53:41It's a small sample size. Here's my problem. I recognize that he can be good.
53:46I don't know if I love the idea of taking a number two wide receiver or maybe a co-number one wide receiver
53:53on his own team within the first two rounds of the fantasy draft.
53:57I don't know if we've done that very often.
53:59And so now here's this player who had a great year.
54:03A lot of his best numbers came when CeeDee Lamb was hurt.
54:06And we're expecting Dallas to have a better defense this year.
54:10Maybe they don't throw quite as much as they did last year.
54:13This isn't a question about talent. And he should still get plenty of opportunities.
54:18But, man, I have had a hard time clicking his name at 20th overall, 21st overall, when there's some damn good tight
54:25ends that could be differentiators for my fantasy team.
54:27Running backs that can be good starters for my fantasy team.
54:31And knowing that there's going to be receivers that maybe don't have the same upside as George Pickens, but can still be
54:37reliable starters waiting for me in rounds three, four, five, and even six.
54:41I mean, certainly you had Chase and Higgins with Higgins going kind of early round three, maybe close to the 2-3 turn.
54:48He went in round two sometimes. Yeah. Yeah. If Pickens really does go 18, I'm not quite sure he will.
54:54I feel like this would be the earliest we've ever had two wide receivers from the same team go off the board,
55:01at least that I can think of. Yeah. I think Lawson Edelman, or Welker, rather, one of those guys in New England, maybe?
55:08Maybe. Way back in the day. Heath, what were you going to say?
55:12I think, like the sample that, and I'm sure you've got an Acer stat that's a little better than this one, but
55:19week 7 through 17, after Lamb came back, and not counting week 18, it was 16.8 fantasy points per game for Pickens, 16.1 for Lamb.
55:27They both scored three touchdowns in 10 games. I think certainly for Pickens, we'd expect for him to score at a higher rate than that.
55:34I've got him right in this range. I actually have him one spot ahead of Jefferson, but I think both of those
55:41guys could have monster seasons, could step back a little bit.
55:45At least, well, Jefferson's going to be better than he was last year, but could not be quite that good.
55:51But I'm pretty comfortable with Pickens in round two.
55:54I just think you're going to see Dallas probably throw the ball a lot, and you're going to see a high percentage
56:00of the targets go to those top two wide receivers.
56:03Another example of teammate wide receivers being drafted in the first 24 picks.
56:07Not 18, I don't know that I can find that, but Jalen Waddell and Tyreek Hill had a year like that.
56:14Did we never have a Cup Puka year where they were that high?
56:18I don't think so. Probably Puka second year. It would have had to have been, but even then, I'm not sure we
56:25were crazy about Cooper Cup and going into 2024.
56:27I'd have to go back and look. No, he was 35th.
56:31Yeah, so that's a no. But look, it worked out, I think, with Higgins, but he's been kind of like a wide
56:38receiver 15 per game kind of guy. Not six or seven.
56:41And not a second round pick. He was kind of around the 2-3 term last year, was he not?
56:47He's been in that. No, let's see. I think it's 2022, or 2023 rather, he was.
56:52He was 29th. So this is very early. This is very early.
56:55The better question is probably not, have we done this before, but have wide receivers on the same team justified this before?
57:02I can probably tell you. I mean, we had, I'm looking at it.
57:06We had a year where Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen both scored 16.8 and 16.9 fantasy points per game in 2020.
57:13Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I have it so. Well, while I have a whole list of, like, teammate-wide receivers who finished top
57:2015, see what the best ones were. But, Jamie, what do you think of George Pickens in the middle of round two?
57:26It's a little early for me, but, I mean, obviously I get the appeal.
57:31You know, if we're hoping that we're going to get the same level of production from both receivers, I think we get
57:37a little bit better lamb this season and a little bit worse Pickens this season just because I think what we saw
57:44from Pickens last year may be the peak. And that's not bad, obviously.
57:48But I just think we get a little bit of regression from him in the wrong direction.
57:53I also think, you know, Dave's brought this up quite a bit, that the Dallas defense is going to improve significantly.
58:00And so we may not see as many pass attempts from the Cowboys offense.
58:04Now, this other part is a little hard to buy, but, you know, again, reports are reports that they really like what
58:11they've seen from Ryan Farnoy and what he's going to potentially be able to do.
58:16Jake Ferguson's still going to be in the mix.
58:18And we'll see how this run game, you know, sort of continues to build off what they did last year with Javante Williams.
58:25So I think George Pickens is a very good number two receiver.
58:29I actually prefer him toward the back end of round two.
58:33I would rather have A.J. Brown. I would rather have Nico Collins.
58:36I know that's probably not the way that's going to get drafted, clearly based on what our consensus rankings are and probably
58:43how ADP goes, especially in the case of A.J.
58:46Brown. But I would also take a handful of running backs over him.
58:50And I think, as we've kind of alluded to, Rashi Rice, for me, right now is ahead of Pickens and probably will
58:57end up being that way as well once we get to, you know, August and average draft position sort of, you know, looks like it's going to look.
59:05So I just think Pickens is in a great spot.
59:08I love the fact that he's showing up despite not getting his contract extension.
59:13I hope that's going to be the case and we don't get a hold in and he's not practicing in camp because
59:19you know how that'll go for me at least.
59:22But in what it seems to be trending toward that he's playing for a big deal, I hope he's, you know, a
59:29good soldier and goes out and has another monster season.
59:32And this is where he's just start to come off the board.
59:36So, again, if you took a running back in round one, so you went McCaffrey or I'm trying to think of this
59:42range, McCaffrey, Taylor, you know, those those guys have eight hands in this mix.
59:47James Cook, you know, and you want to go receiver around, too.
59:50And you like Pickens better than, again, the guys that we have from a consensus standpoint.
59:55If you like him better than Rice, better than than in Heath's case, Jefferson.
60:00But, you know, just looking at the consensus, right, he's better than Nico, better than A.J.
60:05Brown. I certainly can't fault you for what Pickens did last year and hopefully will once again do this season.
60:11OK, here are some wide receivers. Let's let's put this criteria over the last 10 seasons.
60:16Team eight wide receivers that both finished. What are you top 12?
60:19Top 10? What do you want to do? Top 12.
60:23Both finished top 12. One of them finished, let's say, at least wide receiver six.
60:27Does that work? Or seven? I'd be OK if they're both top 12, even if they were 11 and 12.
60:33OK, OK. There's there's a decent amount. Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams.
60:37Michael Thomas and Brandon Cooks. They had Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees throwing to them.
60:42Well, are you going to tell us what happened the year after?
60:45Or is that for us to? No, this is just examples of it happened.
60:50Oh, sure. Once upon a time, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate were wide receivers 11 and 12.
60:55Antonio Brown and Juju. Adam Thielen and Diggs. Let's see.
60:58Metcalf and Lockett. Jefferson and Thielen. Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle.
61:01A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. And last year we had.
61:04Oh, yeah. Last year we had Puka and Adams.
61:07I don't know if we had anyone else last year.
61:10I will say that was almost every year. The problem with that is that that's overall not per game.
61:16I probably will lose some of them on a per game basis.
61:20But you also gain some. I think we had a Jamar Chase T.
61:24Higgins season where Higgins didn't on a. Well, didn't we last year have Lamb and Pickens?
61:29Yeah. My issue with that is. You would have had a Puka cup here too in there too.
61:34A lot of times with that situation is you have guys go off when the other guy is out.
61:40And then they both look better on a per game basis.
61:44Devante Smith is a perfect example of that. Because the A.J.
61:47Brown, Devante Smith one. We know Devante Smith is nowhere near that good when Dallas Goddard and A.J.
61:52Brown are healthy. When one of those guys is out, he's sensational.
61:56But yeah. But either way, I mean, look, there are plenty of examples.
62:00And you usually have good quarterbacks, by the way.
62:03So it's a good thing for Dak. All right.
62:06No Cooper and Crabtree in there? Or too far back?
62:09I don't. Cooper and Crabtree. Let's see. Yes. Crabtree and Cooper were 12th and 16th.
62:13They did not quite make the list. Oh, yeah.
62:16Per game, we had two and 24. We had Chase Higgins and we had Godwin Evans.
62:2120-24. Okay. Or 20-25. Yeah, 20-24. We had a Keenan Allen, Mike Williams.
62:25Did he play three games? Mike Williams? Yeah. He did.
62:28We also technically that year had Garrett Wilson and Devante Adams.
62:32I did not count that one because Wilson was wide receiver 22 after the Adams trade.
62:37But they both did finish top 12 overall. But Wilson wasn't anywhere near that per game.
62:41So I like per game better. But it's not a perfect exercise one way or the other.
62:47All right. Well, that's 13 through 18. A-chan, Jefferson, Hampton, Gentie, Henry, and George Pickens.
62:51We still have some phenomenal players to talk about.
62:54We haven't gotten to the tight ends yet. So tomorrow, 19 through 24, Saquon, Nico, Rasheed Rice, Kenneth Walker, Bowers, and McBride.
63:01That's what it is right now. It's possible that'll change if someone updates their rankings today.
63:06But I don't think it will. And I think what's so interesting, look at that six, right?
63:11You got Barkley, Collins, Rice, Walker, Bowers, McBride. But after that, I mean, you do have A.J.
63:16Brown after that. But you have Higgins, Olave, Kyron, A.J.
63:19Brown. Not that many guys that I – Jacobs is there too.
63:23Not that many guys that can sneak into that top 24, I think.
63:27All right. Well, we'll talk to you tomorrow, folks.
63:30Have a great day. It's for Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
63:33I'm Adam. This has been Fantasy Football Today. See ya.
63:36Count Podcasts. Everything has to come to an end.
63:39Now streaming only on Paramount+. The acclaimed series, The Chi, reaches its final chapter.
63:43We're from Chicago. It's my home. From Emmy Award winner, Lena Waithe.
63:47There are two types of people in this world.
63:50Those that reach for more and those that just enjoy what they got.
63:54This is The Chi. Anything's possible. Singing this song to you.
63:57The Chi. The final season now streaming only on Paramount+.
