0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Swat play!
0:03Can you believe this? He had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:07Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
0:10He's just gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
0:15Four of the first five quarterbacks selected in 2025 based on ADP were busts to varying degrees.
0:20Josh Allen was great, but Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, they disappointed us.
0:25So why are we so confident in the position this year?
0:28Are we confident in the elite quarterbacks here in 2026?
0:31And we're gonna give you our strategies, our sleepers, breakouts, busts and much more right now as the 2026 position previews begin
0:38with quarterback, which seems pretty deep and you can take advantage of that depth.
0:42Also, consider this guys, right now Lamar Jackson is 42nd overall in ADP, both on Fantasy Pros and CBS.
0:48He's QB2, 42nd overall. That would be the latest that QB2 would be getting drafted on average in seven years.
0:53That is interesting, but hello to Dave and Jamie.
0:56Jamie, what's your favorite thing about the quarterback position in 2026?
0:59I like to, in auction leagues, take the backup quarterback first.
1:03And then everyone in my league knows that I want the starter.
1:06So they won't bid as much. I love it.
1:09I love it. So you could do that with Mac Jones and Brock.
1:13Yes, in case for that. Now, listen, I know there are some people, casual fantasy players that are just going to listen
1:19to the position previews, maybe sleepers and busts and players.
1:22We love that kind of stuff. Jamie is making a joke at my expense from yesterday's show.
1:27But what's really your favorite thing about the position?
1:30You said it. It's deep. You know, I mean, you can get guys that are potentially, you know, top 10 quarterbacks.
1:36I don't know how many top five quarterbacks, but there'll probably be one or two in contention that are going to be
1:43available in some cases in round 10 or later.
1:45You know, so depending on what average position you look at and the type of quarterback you're looking to get, four points
1:52for passing touchdowns versus six points are a little bit different here.
1:56But I think you can find guys like Trevor Lawrence late.
1:59You can find Jared Goff late. You can find Bo Nix late.
2:02You know, guys who have been Brock Purdy late, Matthew Stafford late.
2:06You can find guys that have been either coming off an amazing season or have had great seasons recently that are just so cheap on draft day.
2:14If you want to just take two of those guys, if you are a little bit nervous, but you can just take
2:21one and still have a very good fantasy roster because that quarterback should still be very productive, especially at the cost that you're spending.
2:28Dave, what's your favorite thing about the position this year?
2:31Same answer, the depth. So the very first thing that everybody should do before they go into their draft is take a
2:37look at any rank list for quarterbacks that you can find and just put a check mark next to every quarterback that you'd be OK starting.
2:45For me, there's 16, 16 guys. I'd be OK week one putting in to my lineup on the field and expecting good fantasy numbers from.
2:52And the bigger that number is, and I think as long as the number is 14 or higher, the bigger that number
2:59is, the more you should be focused on not just waiting for a quarterback, but really the focus should be on stealing the quarterback.
3:06Getting a quarterback, and I've said this so many times, I should trademark this.
3:10You should feel like you're stealing a guy from the rest of your league.
3:14You can't believe that the quarterback is there in round whatever.
3:18It could be Josh Allen in round four. It could be Lamar Jackson in round five.
3:22It could be Patrick Mahomes in round 10. You just, you can't believe the value.
3:27And so you take the value. You're getting a bargain.
3:30That's what you're going for with quarterback drafting. Oh, yeah, man.
3:33Look at this ADP. QB 16 right now is Jared Goff.
3:36He's always better than that. Sometimes he's much better than that.
3:40QB 17 right now is Baker Mayfield. Let me make this real quick case for Baker Mayfield.
3:45From week 14 of 2023 to week 6 of 2025, that's 28 games for Baker Mayfield.
3:49He averaged 20 fantasy points per game in four-point leagues, 24.7 points per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues.
3:55A 28-game stretch where he was basically elite, better than Drake May in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, last year's Drake May.
4:01And then everything went wrong for him and for the Bucs, so many injuries.
4:05And the injuries actually started even before that. So Kyler Murray is QB 18.
4:09We know his potential. Jordan Love is QB 19.
4:12Tyler Shuck 20. I think QB 21 is someone pretty – Malik Willis is QB 21.
4:16So it's amazing the depth here. And also just another note on depth.
4:20We talk about great or late a lot with tight end.
4:24How about this stat? Over the last eight years, how many quarterbacks have finished top two?
4:28Well, 16, right? Of those 16 quarterbacks, nine of them were drafted as QB 9 or later.
4:33So more than half – basically half of the top two quarterbacks in the last eight years have been drafted as QB
4:409 or later, including 2025 Matthew Stafford, who was the 23rd quarterback off the board, according to Fantasy Pro's average draft position.
4:46Unbelievable. Do you remember what the buzz was with him this time last year?
4:51Oh, my aching back. Yes. Yeah. I'm not sure he's even going to be able to muster through a full season.
4:57Worried about what it means for Pukenakua. Worried about what it means for Devontae Adams.
5:01Yeah. Stafford said, nuts to that. And he went out and he had an MVP year.
5:06Listen, I want to thank everybody for watching and listening and a dedicated audience and starting to pick up some steam right now.
5:13If you are new to Fantasy Football Today, please subscribe.
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5:22Please hit the like button. Leave a good comment.
5:25I usually do read a lot of the comments.
5:27I will tell you honestly, I took yesterday off.
5:30I will not be looking at the comments from yesterday's show.
5:33Your Twitter poll was amazing. My Twitter poll was so funny.
5:36I said, you know, if someone had already taken Isaiah Pacheco in your auction, he was off the board, how would that change your bidding on Jameer Gibbs?
5:45Like, A, I would bid less on Gibbs. B, no change at all.
5:49I think as the last I checked, I would bid less on Gibbs was at 3%.
5:53But to make myself feel better, Jamie, 56 million people played fantasy football in America last year.
5:583% of that is like 1.5 million or something like that.
6:02That's a good point. Yeah. A lot of people affected by my speech.
6:06All right. So you're saying about 54 million people are going against you.
6:09Or just not listening to me. But I'm here for the 1.5.
6:13Let's start with this. We all have some cool stats to throw at you.
6:17But what is your overall quarterback strategy, Jamie? To get a quality player at the right price.
6:22So, you know, for me, the most part is I'm just going to wait and play the board.
6:28You know, I've talked about taking Lamar Jackson in the last draft that we showed on the site in round five.
6:34You know, that was to me a good price.
6:36I usually live in the range of Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence.
6:40Caleb. Caleb goes. It depends on the ADP you look at.
6:43But, yeah, Trevor Lawrence and the three quarterbacks I have typically drafted have been Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott.
6:49You know, so those three guys. Okay. That was going to be my next question.
6:53Dave, your strategy as quarterback? The Eighth Commandment says do not steal.
6:57But I think you should in fantasy drafts. Talked about it already.
7:01Feel like you're stealing your quarterback and that's when you know it's the right time to take one.
7:06Yeah. Yeah. To me, that's really been a lot of the Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, all the busts from last year, basically.
7:13And the thing about Lamar Jackson calling him a bust, he scored more than 33 fantasy points in four of his first five games.
7:20It's pretty obvious why he was a bust last year.
7:23A bunch of lower body injuries and stopped running.
7:26When he ran, he ran poorly. Averaged like 4.2 yards per carry in the second half of the season, which is really low for Lamar Jackson.
7:33So I guess we all kind of have different times during the draft when we feel like we're stealing.
7:39But I do think that the discount on the busts last year are very interesting to me, Dave.
7:44What do you think about that whole concept? Remember, I mentioned the four guys in Daniels, Jackson, Burrow, and Hurts, who are
7:51all either mildly disappointing or very disappointing last year.
7:54And maybe you take advantage of that this year.
7:56If you can, you should, but they're all top six consensus fantasy QBs.
8:00So I think fantasy managers, by and large, are forgiving them for their previous years and are excited to draft them as starters this year.
8:08I think it also comes down to when you're getting them.
8:11Because as you alluded to, we're getting these guys later.
8:14So you still see those names and you see what their history has been.
8:18And it's like, okay, I can forgive Jaden Daniels for getting hurt.
8:22I can forgive Lamar Jackson for getting hurt. Jalen Hurts is the one that I think a lot of people are just
8:28like, I don't know if I want to draft him anymore.
8:31Because he's coming off a disappointing season and he just lost his best receiver.
8:36So there's reasons to sort of pass on him.
8:38You're probably making a mistake where you're able to get him by passing on him.
8:43But I know we'll get into a bunch of stats.
8:46Go for it. His fantasy production has declined every year for five years in a row.
8:50That's pretty scary. It's been strange how it's declined too.
8:53Because we've seen him play amazingly well in the first half of each of his last four seasons, I believe.
8:59And then in the second half, one year he did great.
9:03Stayed healthy. Offense was humming. Every other year there's been a decline as he gets closer to December.
9:08And it's been for varying reasons. It's been sometimes he leaves the game early.
9:12Sometimes he doesn't even play in a couple of games.
9:15Injuries obviously a factor. Last year, I would blame it more on the offense than injuries and the lull that that offense
9:22went through in the middle and toward the end of the year.
9:25If this offense agrees with him and he's in sync with what he's being asked to do by Sean Mannion and that
9:32old play calling change that they have there, there might not be a drop off.
9:36And you know he's going to continue to get the tush push touchdowns.
9:40How many rushing touchdowns has he given you every year at minimum?
9:44Well, not last year though. Eight last year. And it's been 10 plus the four years prior.
9:49Right. I think when you draft him, you're penciling him in for at least 10 rushing touchdowns.
9:54And then I still, I know you love Devontae Smith, Jamie.
9:57I love Devontae Smith. I think Lemon will be a factor in that offense.
10:01Gotter too. The other receivers they have, they might have lost their top receiver, but they still have another one.
10:07And the depth that they now have, but wide receiver is also impressive.
10:11And they might throw to Saquon just a little bit more.
10:14I think that Jalen hurts could have a very nice season.
10:18I don't disagree. You're going to ask me. I'm sorry, Jamie.
10:21Adam, you're going to ask me who am I drafting the most of?
10:25And Jamie mentioned this when you're getting Jalen hurts at the right price.
10:29It's a no brainer. It's reaching for him. It's reaching for any of these guys.
10:33What's the right price? What's, I mean, we got to be, I've been getting them round seven, even round eight.
10:39I love it. I'd be happy. But he's not going to go there in most drafts.
10:44That's the problem. And then six, therefore I will not be drawn.
10:47Well, he's round six right now. Jalen hurts 67th overall QB six.
10:51Is that the right price for Jalen hurts round six?
10:54Six is definitely the right price. I mean, you can make a case as high as I think probably QB five.
11:00And, you know, some people will say probably somewhere, you know, between six and 10 is I think the sweet spot for him.
11:07I would just look at it this way as like, once we start to get most of the 53 million people drafting,
11:13that probably bumps up around, you know, I think you just look at most quarterbacks.
11:18I think we'll see Josh Allen will probably be in round two and Lamar Jackson probably will creep into the back end of round three.
11:25And then the trickle down effect with Drake may, et cetera.
11:29So my guess is it's probably round five is where Jalen hurts starts to go.
11:33But QB six is, and I always look at quarterbacks for the early average position as the number overall at the position,
11:40as opposed to the overall of where they're getting drafted.
11:43I just think that's the better number. Yeah. So it's, it's what number are they coming off the board early in drafts?
11:49I think just in the case of, of hurts, like this is what we see historically around the league.
11:55When you start to get a lot of negative publicity, it's, this is the make or break here, you know?
12:01So you got the story from ESPN about how he wouldn't adapt to Petulo system.
12:05And it just, you know, he was doing his own thing and, you know, there could be a quarterback change here.
12:11If this team struggles because of just, I think the, the feeling overall in Philadelphia is like, they're not satisfied with what
12:18this team has done, which has been amazing. You know, super two Superbowl appearances for Jalen hurts and one win.
12:24Like he he's been really good. It's just, you know, when he's been bad, he's been bad.
12:29And so how much of that is on the previous system?
12:32How much that is on the offensive line struggling?
12:35How much of that is just on him? And so I think this is a year where he's got to adapt to Sean Mannion.
12:42And he's got to adapt to being, I think just a more competent quarterback.
12:46And then hopefully for our purposes, the rushing is still there and he throws the ball a little bit better.
12:52So it could easily be a top three season.
12:55I mean, he's got that in his bag. I just don't like the fact that it's been a continual downward slide for four years in a row.
13:03And are we bottoming out or are we going to bounce back?
13:06Yeah. I think the main reason for the downward slide, the last two years for Jalen hurts is very simple.
13:12They just have not thrown the ball enough at all since they got Saquon Barkley.
13:17They've become so much more run heavy. And last year he stopped running, not stop running, but he ran about two and
13:23a half times, I think fewer per game than what we usually see from hurts.
13:28So fewer pass attempts and fewer rush attempts is usually a bad thing.
13:32Same exact trend though, for Josh Allen, by the way, he keeps getting fewer pass attempts.
13:36He did bounce back a little bit with the rush attempts last year.
13:40And Josh Allen, quite frankly, hasn't been as dominant as he used to be.
13:44He's more of like a 26 point score per game recently than the 28, 29 point score.
13:49He used to be in the Stefan Diggs era.
13:52We'll talk about that a little bit. And that's, and that's a Joe Brady thing, right?
13:57They're just so run heavy now. So we've seen how, um, leaning on the running back can hurt the quarterback a little
14:03bit, but those guys can still be really good.
14:06I just want to make two more points before we go to break here.
14:10Point number one. Yes, Dave, you're right. That the fantasy community is not really discounting Burrow, Daniels, hurts Jackson, because they're going as top five or six quarterbacks.
14:19But I'm pretty sure all of them, no, I'm sure all of them are going later than they were last year.
14:25Um, I also forgot to mention that Drake may is in that mix too.
14:29So in that group of, of quarterbacks plus Drake may, if one of them falls to me in round six or so money, I'm taking it.
14:37And for me, when do I know when to take a quarterback?
14:40Look, you can, if your quarterback is a bust in round six or something like that, we don't typically take Josh Allen
14:47on this podcast because he goes, you know, we're not going to take a quarterback at the two, three turn.
14:53Typically. Um, if your quarterback is a bust this position, it's okay.
14:56You can, you can find replacements more easily at this position than you can at any other position.
15:02It is so deep in one quarterback in one.
15:04Yeah, of course. In one quarterback leagues. So to me, it's like, I think for all of us, when you just don't
15:11love the value at the other positions, you just don't have that conviction in the running back, the receiver or the tight end.
15:18Just take that quarterback that has a chance to be awesome and feel good about it.
15:22And if you're wrong, if he stinks, then you still could be okay at the, at quarterback.
15:28All right, let's take a break. I will ask you guys, I guess I'll make you repeat it, who you're drafting a
15:34lot, who you're skipping, how your strategy changes in different formats.
15:37Dave's got some cool stats to know about profiles for the top 12 quarterbacks.
15:41And I will leave you with this before we go to break in current fantasy pros ADP.
15:47I had to double check this current fantasy pros ADP.
15:49Phillip rivers has a higher average draft position than both of the Falcons quarterbacks.
15:54And we'll be right back. All right, we can do this next thing a little faster here.
15:59Which quarterback do you find yourself drafting a lot?
16:01Dave? Jalen hurts getting them in that late round six and early round seven range.
16:06Jamie, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, which quarterback or quarterbacks do you find yourself skipping?
16:10Jamie, Josh Allen. I've taken Allen, but it's been in well into round three when I've gotten him sometimes around four.
16:17I'm really, I'm just never gravitating toward. I'm, I'm it's value for me.
16:20It's not name. The only name that maybe I'm passing on after kind of having a realization that he might not be
16:27nearly as good as he was last year. And that came last week when I was huddling with the beyond the box score guys is Jackson dart.
16:35And if that giant's offense does go more conservative and Malik neighbors isn't himself, yada, yada, it's a, it's Jackson dart who
16:42I'm probably not going to take period. I, you know, again, depends on the ADP.
16:46Look at Caleb Williams on fantasy pros. If he goes at the number eight quarterback, no way would I do that.
16:52And my homes, if he goes as the 12th quarterback, no way would I do that.
16:57Caleb is down to QB nine. Now on fantasy pros at 91.
17:01He used to be, he used to be the, what'd you say?
17:04Still too soon. 91. He used to be the answer for me.
17:08QB nine. QB nine. Yeah. But he's in, he's in a big group of quarterbacks.
17:12Like QB nine is Caleb Williams. QB 10 is Herbert going two picks later.
17:16QB 11, Trevor Lawrence going five picks after that.
17:19QB 12 is Brock Purdy going about, eight picks after that.
17:22Then you've got Matthew Stafford, Patrick, I mean, that group could end any could, could finish in any order.
17:28Right. And it probably even goes to Jared golf after that, maybe even Bo Nix.
17:32So that's what I was saying about Herbert and Caleb.
17:35But yesterday, you know, it's like, I don't want them to be at the beginning of the tier.
17:41I want to get the guy at the end of the tier.
17:44But I was also saying to Dave off the air before the show, I'll get your thoughts on this.
17:50Like I just, I look at quarterback stats say, okay, this is what they threw for and ran for last year.
17:56And I look at Caleb Williams and I go, man, it seems so easy for him to be better than 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns.
18:04It doesn't seem so easy for Jared golf to be better than what he was last year.
18:094,500 yards, 34 touchdowns. Obviously Matthew Stafford's not going to be better.
18:13I don't know about Trevor Lawrence, but Caleb Williams had pretty modest stats last year.
18:17And he finished as the number 10 quarterback per game, exactly where he's being drafted.
18:22Basically. Doesn't it seem like it's so easy for him to do better than what he did last year?
18:28I mean, you would hope so when, when you're talking about the weapons that he has and those guys coming into their own, you know what I mean?
18:36Look, you get a full year of what Romo Duns, they look like the start of the season.
18:41You get a full year of what Colston love and look like at the end of the season.
18:47And then the flashes of what Luther burden showed us, like there's a lot to love.
18:51There's also clearly a path where this goes completely.
18:54Haywire. And it's awful. You know, you have three young players that two of them at times struggle with injuries last year,
19:01love one at the beginning of the season, burden at the end of the season.
19:05And excuse me, I'm loving at the end of the season.
19:08And then we're loving the beginning of the season.
19:11Duns day at the end of the season. And now we're, you know, we're anointing Luther burden as this tremendous breakout player,
19:18which is, you know, easy to see why it could happen.
19:21But if this all goes bad, it could be ugly.
19:24And their schedule got tougher from a year ago.
19:26You know, it's still playing outdoors in Chicago late in the year.
19:30Like there's, there's ways where Caleb Williams cannot be great.
19:33And there's a reason why in the entire history of the franchise, they have yet to have a 4,000 yard passer.
19:39Like a lot of it is, is who was there, but like, yes, it's, it's just, I think you got to keep expectations to check.
19:47So I, I think he's going to be better.
19:49I think what you see the final six games, like he's capable of that.
19:53I don't know how much more than that, but he's capable of that, you know, right around 24 fantasy points per game.
20:00That's pretty good. And so if he can do that consistently, then yes, he'll be a top eight quarterback.
20:06And yes, Ben Johnson is awesome. And yes, all these young players can be fantastic, but you got to look at the negative too.
20:13And it could be pretty ugly. If things, he misses one or two of those guys.
20:18And you know, this receiving core is bad. You know, I don't want to see him rather than just relying on Cole commit for an entire year.
20:26Yeah. But that's contingency downside. If he's missing those guys and he did miss Romo duns, day for a big chunk of
20:32last year, but that's not the reason why I think his numbers, it's accuracy.
20:36See there's 33 qualifying quarterbacks just based on attempts and, and how much they played.
20:41He was dead last and off target rate. He was dead last and catchable throw rate.
20:45He was second to dead last in completion rate.
20:48Those first two stats, JJ McCarthy was better than Caleb Williams, but he was also, and these are just raw stats, top
20:55five and attempts, top seven in yards, top six and passing touchdowns.
20:58And so if he does improve that accuracy and an easy way to do that are the types of short and intermediate
21:05throws that we're expecting Luther burden to get that we're in Colson Loveland to get into a degree, Romo dudes is going
21:11to get them to, that's going to help that completion rate go up.
21:15That's going to help his efficiency overall. I think there's a, a huge bull case for this bear to come out and have fantastic year.
21:23He's one of the guys that I think is, it's just, he's a great guy to get at cost or a little bit later.
21:30If he slips in your draft, I'm fine with him going in the early nineties overall.
21:35I don't think that that's too soon whatsoever. Okay.
21:37Yeah. I just don't think that's going to be realistic though.
21:40What do you mean? That's not going to be realistic.
21:43Again, I think once all the drafts start to happen late in August, that's 10, 10 to 15 picks higher.
21:49And so let me ask you something. Like if you're expecting, are you expecting every quarterback's ADP to rise in August?
21:56Or do you think maybe there's a couple that could slide down?
21:59I mean, not everyone, but I think the, the buzzworthy guys, which Caleb Williams is certainly one of them.
22:05He's going to be one rise. The top five guys, I don't think are going to, I don't think you're getting Jalen hurts at 67th overall.
22:13I think again, that's probably a round higher. I think we're going to see Lamar Jackson go into round three.
22:19If not, you know, middle of round three, I think Drake may, another buzzworthy guy that got a, you know, sniffing an upgrade.
22:25His ADP rises. I think that's just the nature of what happens when we get the people that are playing this game
22:32for the first time, I need to have a quarterback and they draft them too soon.
22:37I don't know that. I agree with you because I'm looking and I've done this before.
22:41I'm looking at last year's quarterback preview notes, the same show I did a year ago.
22:46And it seems like it seems like it seems like it's stayed pretty sticky from early, late July or early August, probably
22:53late July to what it ended up being. I'll try to confirm that, but either.
22:57Well, if we did the show around the same time, if it's late July, then I'm talking late August, like a month from now.
23:04Right. But I can look at, at the final fantasy pros ADP from last year and take like Bo Nix was around seven pick in late July.
23:12And he went 71st in late August, Baker Mayfield.
23:15Yeah. But what are the top guys? Top guys.
23:18okay. Cause you're telling me Bo Nix is around seven and that's not what I want to be drafting last year.
23:24I'm saying, but that's where he was both in July and in August.
23:28Um, I don't know. This kind of seems like probably something I should do after the show, but, yeah.
23:33Um, okay. Back to, uh, let's just do some different format things here.
23:37How does your strategy change? Dave, in a four point per passing touchdown leagues, we've mostly been talking about six point up to this point.
23:45You, you prioritize quarterbacks who are going to run anyway in fantasy.
23:48You just do it even more so in leagues where it's four point for passing touchdowns because those passing touchdowns just aren't worth the same amount.
23:56Whereas the rushing numbers are feasibly, you could say are worth more, uh, just by virtue of the quarterback touchdowns being worth less.
24:03So Joe Burrow might move down a little bit.
24:05Um, Justin Herbert. No, he, he's still got good value.
24:08Lawrence ran a bunch last year, but I don't know if he runs as much this year.
24:14Mahomes, certainly Stafford. Certainly there was a five and a half point difference in Stafford's fantasy average from six point to four point.
24:20That's probably the best example I can give you of how impactful it can be.
24:25If your quarterback doesn't run at all, but he still was the number two quarterback in that format.
24:30Uh, he was, it just wasn't nearly as prolific.
24:33No, because keep in mind, yards are so important in that format, right?
24:37Passing yards are real. And he, you know, he could throw for 4,800 and so could Jared golf.
24:42I've, I've always found that the guys like Matt Ryan, it's the guys who don't throw for a lot of yards and throw for a lot of touchdowns.
24:50For example, Russell Wilson back in the day, wouldn't be a big yardage guy, but he would throw over 35 touchdowns.
24:57He would have the biggest drop in a four point per passing touchdown league.
25:01Um, but the guys who throw for a lot of touchdowns, but also a lot of yards, they are not as bad,
25:07not as, uh, not as much worse as you would think.
25:11You don't have to run away from Stafford and golf.
25:14Yeah. All right. Um, Jamie, how about, um, like PPR, non PPR, half PPR, three receiver, anything like that?
25:19Change your quarterback strategy. Nope. All right, then let's talk super flex here for a few minutes.
25:24And, and for you super flex people, we're definitely going to do like full episodes on it.
25:29How do you do? How do you approach super flex leagues, Jamie?
25:33I try to get at least one, uh, starting quarterback, one number one quarterback, one top 12 quarterback, uh, ideally early if
25:39I can, you know, it's kind of like a hero quarterback strategy.
25:43Um, I don't think you have to go quarterback, quarterback.
25:46I would like to get two of my top 20 guys.
25:49I have a little bit, probably a bigger pool of guys.
25:52I think that can be number one quarterbacks. And Dave, Dave said 16, I believe, uh, for me, it's around 21.
25:59So if I can get two of those guys, I'm, I'm thrilled with that.
26:03And then trying to get a third quarterback, if you can, it's not a huge priority, but you don't want to leave
26:09your draft without having, you know, hopefully three guys there.
26:12But I think for the most part, if you can, you know, try and get two quarterbacks early ish, uh, you feel
26:19a little bit more comfortable about it. But if you miss on a quarterback early and you want to get two guys
26:25in the teens, I think you try and, you know, get two guys that have upside and then take a third guy that has probably a good floor.
26:34So like, if you're looking at, um, I don't know if I'd want to pair, let's say like Malik Willis and Tyler
26:40Shuck together, like that type of, of combo. But if you can get a Jared Goff and a Kyler Murray, and then
26:47come back with, uh, somebody like a Sam Darnall late, you know, just to give yourself a little bit of a safer floor.
26:54So that type of strategy as well. This is when Heath would jump in and say, be wary of the quarterbacks who
27:00could lose their job at some point during the season.
27:03Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, Kirk cousins to a tongue of Iowa.
27:06These are all quarterbacks who could get pulled if things don't go right for their teams this season and somebody else could take over.
27:14And if you're not playing quarterback, you're not going to be startable in a super flex or two QB league.
27:20And I, my personal experience in super flex leagues is that there is no winning strategy.
27:24Last year, Dan Schneier, one hour league in super flex, his first four picks.
27:28He had the sixth overall pick. His first four picks were B.
27:32John Robinson, Puka Nakua, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence.
27:35So he didn't take a quarterback until rounds three and four.
27:38He won the league. He did phenomenally with his first two picks.
27:42I've seen people go QB, QB and win the league.
27:45I've seen people wait until round seven or later and win the league.
27:48Uh, you got to get a little bit, lucky.
27:51Certainly you got to stay healthy in super flex, but I don't think you need to go in there going, right?
27:57Like Jamie said, like, I got to get two quarterbacks.
28:00My first definitely don't have to do that. But if you nail the quarterback after the first four rounds in a, in
28:07a super flex draft, that means you've built up your roster really nicely at other positions.
28:12And you can still get a quarterback or two who are playing close to the same level as the top tier quarterbacks
28:18that were drafted in round one in those formats.
28:21That's the goal. That's why I kind of love the idea of waiting a little bit to take quarterbacks.
28:26And that's absolutely the case. If you're like Jamie and you look at a quarterback rank list and you say, Oh, there's 21 dudes here that are awesome.
28:35You should take advantage of that. Buy into that, lean into that, whatever you want to say, but go after other positions
28:41first, then go get quarterback starting in round three or four.
28:45Jamie, I just checked the ADP from last year.
28:47And when we did the show, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were going at the two, three turn.
28:53Jaden Daniels is going 33rd, Joe Burrow, 37th, Jalen hurts, 38th.
28:56All of them moved up about three spots, but they didn't have that far to go.
29:01Right. Cause they were all going early for Allen.
29:03They were all going earlier than they are now.
29:06They all moved up a little bit. Dak Prescott went from round 10 to round eight.
29:11Um, I didn't look at everyone, but to your point, yes, some of these quarterbacks definitely moved up.
29:16You should expect that, I guess. Good call. I don't know if it's going to be dramatic, but expect the quarterbacks move up in ADP.
29:23You basically, you could see a situation where my homes looks great and everybody's excited about him.
29:29Yep. Jaden Daniels looks great and everybody's excited about him.
29:32Lamar Jackson's thriving in this new offense, et cetera, et cetera.
29:35Like there's, you know, again, we're getting practice footage come out.
29:38So there was a, Jordan Schultz who covers the NFL for Fox sports posted a video of Josh Allen.
29:44And I think his, his, his, uh, post on X was Josh Allen, DJ more cooking already or something like that.
29:50You know, it was just DJ more with a toe tap and on the sideline, like those things are going to get people excited.
29:57Yeah. Okay. My homes, especially because people know that he's got potential to be the best quarterback in the world.
30:03Got some news and notes for you. We'll get into ADP.
30:06We'll talk about, but we mentioned Jackson dart. Didn't really talk about him at all.
30:11I definitely want to get into him, getting to as many quarterbacks as we can.
30:15Let me tell you what people are excited for this time of year.
30:19They're excited for draft a thon. It is our month long drive to raise money for St.
30:24Jude. We've already raised $1,700 and basically nobody knows about draft a thon right now.
30:29So imagine what is this going to look like when we start putting up the FFT open spots right now, you can
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30:482026 FFT open spots are going on sale or whatever we want to say on Monday.
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30:59We're going to raise $99,000 if we sell out these leagues.
31:02The other thing I want to tell you about is our awesome fantasy app.
31:06I've been on it. I'm actually on the clock in our bake burger dynasty draft, but if you're at youtube.com slash fantasy
31:13football today, just scan that QR code and download the fantasy, the CBS sports fantasy app.
31:18You will not regret it. It is awesome. Let's take a look at some important context here at the quarterback position.
31:24Dave's got some good stats for us about some recent trends.
31:27So 14 quarterbacks average at least 20 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues.
31:32That was up from 11 in 2024. And that was really bad.
31:36That was the worst season. 2024 was the worst season in terms of 20 point per game scores in 12 years.
31:42So we got to bounce back there. Patrick Mahomes, eight straight years of 20 or more fantasy points.
31:48I love that. Josh Allen, six straight years of 24 or more fantasy points.
31:52And I think it's probably even better than that, Dave.
31:55I don't know if you were removing the week 18s from the last two seasons where he played one snap.
32:01I did not. And so if you do that, then that number probably is closer to 26.
32:06It's like 25.9 for Josh Allen, six straight years.
32:08That's exactly right. He's been a top two quarterback in five of the last six seasons.
32:13Josh Allen, one of the best stretches, I think, in NFL history.
32:17Honestly, Jalen Hurts has been really consistent. 21.8 fantasy points per game last year.
32:21That's his worst in five years. Five straight years, at least 21.8 points and six point per passing touchdown leagues.
32:27Dave, tell us about this playoff teams stat. Eight of the 10 quarterbacks that finish top 12 have been on playoff teams, and it's been that way.
32:35Is it five straight years or 10 straight years?
32:38I don't even remember my own damn notes that I sent you.
32:41I don't either. I've got it right here. Between eight and 10 of the top 12 quarterbacks in each of 2021 through 2025.
32:48So it's since 2021 have been on playoff teams.
32:51So if you want a good fantasy quarterback, make sure he's on a playoff contender.
32:55Well, I wouldn't say make sure. I would say it helps if he's on a playoff contender, right?
33:00Sounds like it really helps. It really helps. And that's pretty interesting stuff.
33:04Also, if we just take a look at... Let's look at the amount of quarterbacks who have scored 22 points per game over the last decade.
33:12And you're going to see what kind of era we're in at quarterback.
33:16So again, 22 points per game. How many quarterbacks have averaged that over the last decade?
33:21Starting in 2016, five, six. And then we had this crazy stretch.
33:2411, nine, 12, 12. From 2018 to 2021, quarterback production was insane.
33:28The last four years, six, seven, eight, and six quarterbacks have averaged 22 or more fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues.
33:35And I did remove guys like Joe Flacco for five games, guys who played one game or whatever.
33:41It's guys who were starters for much of the year.
33:44Did you count Purdy last year? Yes. I see seven and then I see two more that had 21.8 or more.
33:50All right. But that's not 22. Regardless, we're not in the golden era of quarterbacks.
33:55But I think it could get I think it really could bounce back because these Russian quarterbacks are so good and they had such bad years last year.
34:03Some of them. So I think we could have a better year at quarterback.
34:07Sure. We've had. Remember Lamar didn't finish anywhere near the top 12 last year.
34:11Daniels. Daniels was beat up. Well, Hertz was not a 22 point score.
34:15Yeah, he was 20. He was one of the guys that was at 21.8.
34:19Right. So I would say that's close enough. You're just not counting it because you're you're nitpicky.
34:24And then there's 100. There's not 100, but there's, you know, four other quarterbacks that you can make a case for that could finish with 22 plus easily.
34:33Let's get to some sleepers, breakouts and bust real quick.
34:36I'm going to do injuries, news and notes. B.
34:38John Robinson and Jameer Gibbs are not practicing. They might be looking for new contracts.
34:43How about that? Maybe the top two picks in fantasy could be holding out.
34:47Holding it. Holding it. Holding in. Tua Tungavailoa is dealing with back tightness.
34:51According to Adam Schefter, he's not expected to miss much time.
34:54Michael Penix Jr. Still not back from his torn ACL.
34:57The Falcons signed Cooper Rush. They also put offensive offensive lineman Juwan Taylor on the pup list.
35:02Kirk Cousins opened camp as the Vegas starter. Got some Patriots camp news.
35:06AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs. Both of them, their connections with Drake may a little bit off right now.
35:11Great news for Chris Olave. Fully cleared after he was dealing with that blood clot for a while.
35:17Marvin Harrison Jr. back at practice. A very short injury scare there.
35:20Malik Neighbors could be ready for week one. We always knew that, but there's some optimism there, apparently, according to The Athletic, for Malik Neighbors.
35:28Zach Charbonnet, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, he could be back for week one.
35:33That's wild. Baker Mayfield is going to play out the last season of his contract this year without an extension.
35:39And Tank Dell seems to have an encouraging outlook right now as training camp begins.
35:43And Micah Parsons is on the pup list. We'll do sleepers, players we love, and busts.
35:48Two just feel-good stories, no matter how it plays out.
35:51But right now, Tank Dell being back and Jonathan Brooks being back and getting just rave reviews on both.
35:56It's just nice to see after what those two guys have dealt with injury-wise.
36:01Things are trending in the right direction. Who is some of your favorite sleepers, Jamie?
36:05Or sleeper or sleepers? I mean, there's so many at this position.
36:09My favorites would be Jared Goff, Tyler Shuck, Kyler Murray, and Malik Wills.
36:12Do you think Tyler Shuck has the same upside as Goff, Murray, and Willis?
36:17Yes. Yes. I mean, we saw last year the way he closed the season.
36:21He was basically, as you see here, 20.1 fantasy points in six of his final eight games.
36:26And he was running the ball. You know, like 30, I think it was 33 yards or more in three of his final five games.
36:33Like, you're talking about a Kellen Moore offense. That's awesome.
36:36You're talking about adding Jordan Tyson. That's awesome. Healthy Chris Olave in potentially a contract year.
36:41I think this is just one of those situations where, like, if you – this is the perfect guy to pair with
36:47because he's not going to be drafted as a top-12 guy.
36:51So, like, if you want to take Stafford, you want to take Mahomes, you want to take – even at the higher
36:57end, you know, you're concerned about Jane Daniels' injury risk potentially.
37:01Like, those type of guys. Like, Tyler Shuck is going to be available to you late, certainly in the double-digit rounds based on ADP.
37:08Like, easy guy to pair with because the upside is great.
37:11And you see the – if you're watching on YouTube, the final note on the graphic.
37:16Kellen Moore's quarterback is 24.2 fantasy points per game.
37:18So, that's what he has averaged during his time as a coordinator and head coach.
37:23So, factoring last year with Tyler Shuck. But his time with Dak Prescott in Dallas, his one year with Justin Herbert, and his one year with Jalen Hurts.
37:31Like, great quarterbacks. Obviously, Tyler Shuck's got a little bit of a ways to go to get to that level.
37:37But clearly, there's the opportunity here in this offense to have a very successful fantasy season.
37:42So, he's, you know, just one of those guys.
37:45Like, if you're super flexed, like, he's one of the guys I tend to try and gravitate toward.
37:50But I just love the upside of what he can be this year if everybody stays healthy in his receiving court.
37:56His completion rate in each of his last eight starts was never lower than 65%.
38:01And then, Jamie mentioned this. In his last five games, he had three where he ran for at least 30 yards.
38:07Three total rushing touchdowns in those last five games.
38:09I wouldn't say he's a huge rushing threat, but it is part of the profile on top of the fact he's a really good passer.
38:17I think the two things that stand out to me.
38:20Number one, the addition of Tyson. I know I'm not a huge Tyson fan for fantasy this year, but I do think he will help.
38:27But also, this is a team that's going to play at a fast pace.
38:31So, there should be a high amount of volume for Tyler Shuck out there on the field.
38:37And that makes him a very intriguing sleeper, even if you want to stash him in one QB leagues with a late pick.
38:43And Jared Goff, you know, we've talked about maybe we have some concerns about their secondary.
38:48They have only one cold weather game all season, most likely, at Chicago.
38:52Schedule is amazing. In week 17. They're at Green Bay in week 18.
38:56That won't matter. So, great schedule for Goff. From Malik Willis, I want to, you know, you're going, you're going, yeah, Malik Willis, his offense stinks, right?
39:04The Dolphins stink. I want to remind you, in 2022, Justin Fields was a top seven quarterback per game.
39:10The Bears went 3-14. Their leading receiver was Cole Komet.
39:12Who had 544 yards receiving. And Justin Fields was a top seven quarterback.
39:16So, when you can run in six starts, six career starts, Malik Willis has averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game and has four touchdowns.
39:23So, that's a 17-game pace of 762 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns based on his six career starts.
39:29So, I thought, I didn't notice this kind of stat.
39:32Well, I mean, I didn't look it up until yesterday.
39:35Like, can you be a good quarterback on a terrible team?
39:38And Justin Fields is the answer there. And Malik Willis, you know, maybe can do that.
39:43And then Kyler Murray, I think we all know.
39:45We don't have to give much analysis there. We know what the deal is.
39:50Do you like, do you rank them Goff, Kyler, Shuck, Willis?
39:53How do you rank them, Jamie? Goff. I go back and forth with Kyler and Shuck.
39:58But right now, it's Kyler. Goff, Shiler. Goff. Shiler.
40:00Kyler. Goff. Kyler. Shuck. Willis. Dave, who's your favorite sleeper?
40:03I don't want to put a K on the front of Tyler Shuck's last name.
40:08I would go with Goff first. Kyler and Malik are the two that I go back and forth on.
40:13And then Shuck is right behind them. Oh, no.
40:16I'm sorry. You're sleepers. Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you asked me to rank those guys.
40:21It's basically the same list. I would throw Jordan Love in there, too, just because I'm a little more optimistic that the
40:27cleaning out of the receiving core for Green Bay plus the questions that they have at running back could lead to Jordan Love doing a lot.
40:35There's obviously an injury concern there. But Jordan Love has shown us that he can be at least capable.
40:41He had seven games last year with 20-plus. He had 38 in his lone playoff game, 18.7 overall.
40:46I think he can build on that and be better than that.
40:50And I think the Packers will be another team, particularly with Michael Parsons potentially missing the first four games.
40:55They might get off to a start where they need to throw the ball a lot.
41:00So Jordan Love is – I would add love to the list that Jamie gave.
41:05I do love Malik Willis, though. As a guy to draft with a last pick, stash and see what happens.
41:10This is contingent on him having a decent camp.
41:13And my guess is that Miami is just going to have him be a quick trigger type of thrower.
41:19Lots of RPOs, zone reads, stuff like that. Take advantage of his rushing.
41:23And he will run a ton for Miami. And that's obviously a cheat code in fantasy.
41:27So this is definitely somebody who could be in that mold of Drake May.
41:32He's not the same type of thrower, obviously. Although he's not too far off.
41:36I liked his film as far as his passing went last year.
41:39And he's in an offense that he's comfortable with.
41:42It's basically the Green Bay offense from 2025. It makes me encouraged to take that late-round shot on him.
41:48My favorite part of my Scott Fishbowl team is my three quarterbacks are Jared Goff, Tyler Shuck, and Malik Willis.
41:54And when did you draft any of them? I bet you didn't take any of them anywhere close to when other quarterbacks were out.
42:01Super flex, though. I know. No, no. They were both – they were all three after round six.
42:06Exactly. That's awesome. Man, everyone's a sleeper at this position.
42:09That's true. They're all so good. Honestly, I got to throw Baker Mayfield in there.
42:13I already made the case earlier. But he actually has some decent history in recent years without Mike Evans.
42:19Think two years ago when Evans missed those three games.
42:22He was fine. Jalen McMillan stepped up. Chris Godwin was also out at that point.
42:27He's got two years in a row averaging over 22 rushing yards per game.
42:31I don't really understand how that's happening. But maybe he's at 17, 18 rushing yards per game.
42:36Baker Mayfield going so late, he might be a good bounce back.
42:39We're going to take a break and get some breakouts and busts and then ADP review after this.
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43:32Visit the website for full terms and conditions. Breakouts are players we love.
43:36Dave, I'll let you start. We already talked about Caleb Williams, and I think he's a tremendous breakout candidate.
43:41All he needs to do is just improve his completion rate and his efficiency and just the raw totals will follow.
43:48I think the explosive elements that his offense was missing in the first half of 2025 will be their form.
43:54That's Colson Loveland and Luther Burden. And he had Odunze at the beginning of the year, and as long as Odunze is
44:00healthy, that's going to be another part of the offense for him, too.
44:04I don't see a problem taking him in that round eight range.
44:08Jamie, favorite breakout? So this is always a tricky one with me with this position because, like, we got a great sample
44:14size of Caleb Williams breaking out last year. And you could say, okay – or, yeah, breaking out last year.
44:20You could say he was already a breakout. I have the same thing with Trevor Lawrence.
44:25Like, he broke out in the second half of the season last year.
44:29His last seven games, or eight games, including the playoffs, like, he was averaging over 30 fantasy points per game.
44:35He's just never done it for a complete season.
44:37So that's the one that I would say of the, you know, guys getting drafted in the top 12.
44:43But, I mean, all the guys we just talked about as sleepers, we call them sleepers because of their ADP.
44:49Like, those are breakout candidates, you know, aside from Goff and Kyler Murray.
44:53But, like, Tyler Stocks is going to have, you know, arguably a chance to be a top 12 guy.
44:58Malik Willis has a chance to be a top 12 guy.
45:02These guys have never done anything like that in the NFL before.
45:05So I think if you're looking at it, like, who has a chance to be better consistently?
45:10Caleb qualifies. Trevor Lawrence qualifies. But you can also make a case that those guys had breakout seasons last year.
45:16Yeah. I just, that's, that's why I always say sleepers win you weeks, breakouts win you leagues, TM.
45:22We think breakouts are better players than the sleepers.
45:24We think Trevor Lawrence has more upside than Tyler Shuck.
45:27It's not necessarily about having your best season. I know, Jamie, you've also been very high on Justin Herbert.
45:33And if Heath were here, you know, I, I, I laid out on Twitter the other day, a statistical argument against Justin Herbert.
45:40And it's basically the only two times he's been an elite quarterback in fantasy.
45:44His first two seasons in the NFL, he averaged more than 26 fantasy points per game.
45:49And he threw 39, he threw more than 39 passes per game, both years.
45:53He's never been a yards per attempt standout. He's never been a touchdown rate standout.
45:57His rushing totals last year were great, but I don't think we can expect that again.
46:02He had a career rushing year. He's usually like a good rusher about 350 ish yards, not a great rusher.
46:08Um, so he needs an efficiency spike because Mike McDaniels, not a guy who throws, who throws a ton typically, and they should have a pretty low pace.
46:16It's a slow pace. Yes, it is. Um, but then there are just so many reasons to like Justin Herbert.
46:22So how much do you like Justin Herbert? And are you okay with his ADP?
46:27Herbert is QB 10 right now going 93rd. Absolutely bleeping.
46:30Love it. You know, if he's outside of the top eight quarterbacks, I think he's got top five upside.
46:35And so, you know, yes, there, there are certainly reasons to, you know, be worried about Justin Herbert for what you laid
46:42out on Twitter and the arguments you just made.
46:45Um, it's like different sample sizes for him all throughout his career, right?
46:48Because we saw early Justin Herbert having to throw a lot.
46:52We saw the last couple of seasons prior to last year where it was just a mess with his receiving core being
46:58hurt with his offensive line being injured. And then you look at with Joe Alt without Joe Alt last year, like 25
47:05plus fantasy points per game in the six games that Alt played.
47:08And really for those, he was a hundred percent healthy.
47:11Two of those, he was, you know, kind of thing playing through something.
47:15And that was without Rashaun Slater. You see on, if you're watching on, on the, on YouTube in the games that Joe
47:22Alt played a touchdown better than when Joe Alt was not there from a team perspective, their points per game, 25.3 points per game.
47:29When Joe Alt was on the field, 18.3 without.
47:31Now you're adding in Mike McDaniel. Now you're, I think, you know, getting a healthier Lad McConkie, Quinn Johnson, Quinn Johnson building
47:38off last year, a better version of Trey Harris, David Njoku, a very underrated addition that they have.
47:43Keaton Mitchell, a very underrated addition that they have.
47:46We don't love those guys for fantasy. They're great for your NFL team.
47:50And so, you know, you got to hope that everything stays on the field for them because Slater didn't play and all
47:56struggled to stay healthy with the ankle problem. But if you have those two guys there, like that just made everything better
48:03for, or just Alt being there made everything better for Justin Herbert.
48:07And so the Mike McDaniel wrinkle, I think is huge.
48:09You know, the fact that he got a season.
48:12I think if you were to say, go back in the history of the league, Hey, look at all the quarterbacks that
48:19led the NFL in passing yards to it, to it.
48:22Tunga, Tunga, Tunga, you know, like now he gets this, you know, it's, it's just such a huge upgrade in terms of what the player is.
48:29And so, yes, there may not be the, um, ideal optimal situation of crappy defense, greatest receiving core, you know, Joe Burrow,
48:36Dak Prescott, all those things we, you know, anoint for those guys.
48:40But if he does run anything close to what he did last year and now you have McDaniel's offense and now you
48:46have the tackles healthy, like I'll definitely take him if he's going at his cost, I'll reach for him a little bit.
48:53One of the best years of just harvest great.
48:55Does he get back to, you know, being North of 26 fantasy points per game?
49:00That's a big ask, but I think he could hover around the 25 point per game range and that makes him a pretty good fantasy value.
49:07Do you know what his floor is? It's pretty high.
49:10He's had at least 19 fantasy points per game every year of his career.
49:15So even if you're just not a hundred percent sure on everything that Jamie said, at least you know that Justin Herbert
49:21has never like crushed people in fantasy other than bad games here and there.
49:25But on average, he's pretty good and his ceiling is very good.
49:29That's why he's my QB7. Top 11? I saw this yesterday from the footballers.
49:33It was funny. So he just, Justin Herbert just got engaged.
49:36I think it was two days ago. And they posted Mahomes engaged 2020 QB4 Super Bowl appearance.
49:41Brock Purdy 2023 QB6 Super Bowl appearance. Christian McCaffrey 2023 RB1 Super Bowl appearance.
49:45Josh Allen 2024 QB1 NFL MVP. Sam Darnold career year Super Bowl winner.
49:49Justin Herbert 2026. Well, he's got competition, buddy, because Brock Bauer has also got engaged.
49:54Hey, tight end one. Yes. Four of six seasons, Justin Herbert's been 11th per game or better.
49:59Okay. This is a tougher one. I mean, it's so easy to be optimistic.
50:03Who's going to be a bust, Dave? I'm going to go with Jackson Dart.
50:07And it's kind of an easier case to make with him just because he came into an offense last year that was
50:14just like frenetic and desperate for help. And now they're trying to curate it to be a lot more conservative, be a lot more run heavy.
50:21And I know it almost sounds counterintuitive because Malik Nabors, it sounds like he's going to make his comeback a little bit better than anticipated.
50:29And anybody that's throwing him has a chance to put up huge numbers.
50:33Do you know, this is really the stat that took me off of Jackson Dart.
50:37He had nine rushing touchdowns last year. Take all of them away.
50:41He averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. Of the nine touchdowns, five of them came inside the 10.
50:46I don't think that the Giants are going to call many plays for Dart to stick his head into the end zone
50:53to try and score a touchdown, especially if they've got Scadaboo.
50:56And even if they don't have Scadaboo, I think that there could be other ways.
51:00Is that they can create those touchdown opportunities. So even if you cut the rushing touchdowns in half, you keep every other
51:07metric that he has about the same. Maybe you boost the passing efficiency a little bit more.
51:12I'm not sure he can get to the 22.6 fantasy points per game that he had in 12 games last year when he had at least 19 dropbacks.
51:20That's the sample that I think is probably the most faced.
51:24Yeah. And yeah, fine. 19.4 and 12 starts is what I actually got.
51:27Oh, I just, I worry about him. I worry about him hitting that upside.
51:32You're not wrong in, in, in obviously the assessment of the nine rushing touchdowns, but I mean, you could obviously do that for Jalen hurts.
51:39You could do that for Josh Allen. You can do that for Trevor Lawrence last year.
51:44Like, you know, you're taking away something that I still think.
51:47There's a pretty big track record of those guys.
51:50No, but, but, but still like, you know, you're, you're taking, so do it for Trevor Lawrence then.
51:55I mean, you're taking away, you know, a career high for him in nine rushing touchdowns.
52:00I don't think he's going to get nine. That's a, that's just impossible.
52:04I don't think he's going to be second among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game like he was last year also, but that's still who he is.
52:12And so like, you know, if you take that number and let's say you take 10 yards off the rushing yards and
52:18you cut the rushing touchdowns in half, because I think that's probably fair.
52:22So you go to 30 rushing yards per game and probably four rushing touchdowns.
52:26Then it's a matter of what else does he give you from a passing perspective?
52:31And everything around him is better in that regard because the offensive line is better and healthier.
52:36You add Isaiah likely you have Malik neighbors. He played a half with Malik neighbors last year.
52:41His first NFL start was week four. That was when neighbors suffered the torn ACL.
52:45So you're giving him neighbors to whatever version of neighbors is.
52:49It's better than what they have. You're giving him likely you're giving him Mooney.
52:53The only subtraction is Wanda Robinson, which is a big loss from a volume standpoint.
52:57I don't know if it's a big loss from a player standpoint with what they're adding to replace him.
53:03And so likely could take that role. I think you just look at it and say, I think dark can be in a similar range.
53:10I don't want to reach for Jackson. To me, him and Caleb Williams are almost very similar.
53:15You know, you're asking two young quarterbacks to take a step forward.
53:19And I just don't want to reach for those guys.
53:22If I get them at a good cost as, you know, QB 10 or later, which right now dart is where he's going.
53:29So I think that's fine. No, no, sir. QB seven on fantasy pros.
53:33He's where QB seven. Yeah, that's, that's, that's a bust.
53:36He's, he is my bonus from last year where I said, I like bonus, but I don't know that I like him
53:42better than the guy who's going six spots, six quarterbacks behind him.
53:46He's the beginning. See, this is kind of what I was saying about Herbert and, and Caleb Williams.
53:51Now it's Jackson dart. It's, it's like, he shouldn't be at the front of this tier.
53:56I don't think I'm not comfortable with it. I think we all kind of feel that way.
54:01It's not that we don't like Jackson dart. It's just, he's going 90th overall on CBS.
54:06Yes. He's going 80 as QB one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.
54:10Yeah. Still too soon. I thought he was later and pretty much tied with Herbert for eight.
54:15They're like basically tied with QB eight. Yeah. So we love Jackson dart.
54:19Dave, I would just say if he threw, if he rushes for fewer touchdowns, he probably will throw for more.
54:25That's what we've seen from Josh Allen. The last few, like he's thrown fewer touchdowns and he's compensated by running for more,
54:31but but I think we're all in agreement here on Jackson dart that he's not clearly better than so many of the guys right behind him.
54:39So don't be the one who takes him before, you know, to lead the tier.
54:44Jamie, who's a bus for you? Uh, for me, it's just, it's strictly an ADP thing.
54:48It's my homes. Um, you know, going as QB 12, I just don't want to draft him as a starter.
54:54I think what we saw last year, huge spike in production.
54:58And that was with the rushing, which I think comes way down.
55:01You know, you have the ACL, the injury to his knee.
55:04Um, don't expect him to rush as much anymore.
55:07Uh, or not to this level, you know, was a career high in rushing yards and just 14 games for him.
55:13Um, do like the fact that B enemy is back.
55:16Uh, his best years have come with B enemy, but that was also with peak Travis Kelsey and Tyree kill.
55:22So just factor that into the equation, but I would rather have Jared golf than Patrick Holmes.
55:27You know, I would rather have, uh, Trevor Lawrence than Patrick Holmes.
55:31I think in CBS sports ADP, that's not the case.
55:34Um, and I really at this point, like if I have to take my homes at his price versus Chuck or Murray
55:40or those other guys, I think there's just as much upside for those other quarterbacks this year as well.
55:46So I just think my home is going to revert back to what he was prior to last season when the rushing
55:53was not there and the passing numbers were minimal.
55:55He's just not the same guy for me. Yeah.
55:58But if there was ever a guy that loses on rushing touchdowns and gains on passing touchdowns, it would be Patrick Mahomes.
56:04But it wasn't prior to last season though. That's fair.
56:07And I think a lot of that had to do with kind of an uneven group of wide receivers, players that were in and out.
56:15And I think that that, that was a factor as well.
56:18Let me take you back to 2019. He averaged 3.1 attempts per game.
56:22That was a career low for him. 218 rushing yards and two touchdowns in 14 games.
56:27Is that the kind of pace that you're thinking for him as a runner?
56:31Do you think it'll even be lower than that?
56:34Lower. Okay. I don't know. I think he'll still give you two or three rushing touchdowns, 250 to 350 rushing yards.
56:40It's not anything. The rushing touchdowns, I can buy the yards now.
56:43Yeah. He can compile them. I think he's still a hell of a thrower.
56:47And we saw a lot of his metrics last year really tank.
56:51His completion rate was way down. His yards per attempt was still pretty good.
56:55ADOT was kind of on pace with where he's been.
56:58I wonder if they take a few more shots this year.
57:01And I wonder if it's because the run game is now a factor.
57:05Yes. For them. The ADOT was way up, Dave, actually.
57:088.1. The previous two years, it was like 6.3 and 7.
57:12I'm not seeing 8.1 for the ADOT. Oh, maybe I'm crazy.
57:15That's, I thought he threw the ball more downfield.
57:18Patrick Mahomes last year, which I think is huge for him.
57:21He has to do that, but he stinks at it lately.
57:24He's been one of the worst deep ball passers in the NFL over the last few years.
57:29He really needs to improve there, and it has been somewhat drops.
57:33It's been somewhat on him. He's just been inaccurate.
57:35And I don't want to become like the Mahomes guy, and I don't think he's a top eight quarterback or anything like that.
57:42I think he's a great pick at value. Yeah.
57:45You like him as a sleeper. Jamie does not.
57:48I am seeing, I had 8.1. Now I'm seeing 7.9 on pro football reference.
57:52I think 8.1 on true media. But yeah, he did throw the ball downfield more than he had in the previous four seasons last year.
57:59Okay, let's get to some ADP, and we'll see if we like these values.
58:03Josh Allen, 25th overall. Do we like it? No.
58:06No. A little too soon. Do you think DJ Moore gets him closer to where he used to be, where he's still
58:12the best, basically, but not quite as good as he used to be?
58:16Definitely doesn't hurt. He would be closer, yes, with DJ Moore.
58:20So when would you take Josh Allen? Late round three.
58:23Late round three, early round four. Don't have to listen to us.
58:26I mean, the fact is he's... Someone in your league will definitely not listen to us.
58:31There will be one person in every home league that takes Josh Allen at that ADP.
58:36And he's the safest player in fantasy. Or earlier.
58:38So I don't blame them. He's the safest player in fantasy.
58:42It's always when you draft a quarterback and you go, oh, I can't believe I took him this early, when you start
58:48to see the other value of those quarterbacks. And then when you look at your team by the end of it, you're
58:55like, oh, I got a great player. Yeah, exactly.
58:57Lamar Jackson in round four. Yes. I'm okay with it.
59:00Are we encouraged by the love affair that it seems to have with his new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle?
59:06So much positive buzz. You know, it's very strange that a new situation develops in the NFL and people are just so excited about it.
59:13That never happens. It does seem kind of genuine the way that the players seem very excited about the new offense.
59:20Yes, they're excited. Especially after you heard John Harbaugh's speech.
59:23Imagine how much they've ever heard that in the last several years.
59:26Like, it's probably just been tired and, you know, worn out at this point.
59:30So they got a new voice and, you know, new people in the building and they're energized.
59:35Look at what Lamar has done when he's had a first-year play caller.
59:39His first year with Monkin, he was awesome. I got to think back.
59:43I don't have the name. It was Greg Roman.
59:46Was it Roman? Yeah, Greg Roman designed the offense for him.
59:49And kaboom. Yeah, an MVP year. Yeah. It wasn't the first year.
59:53I'm thinking Doyle can do that. And we're already hearing about how they're doing a lot more play action stuff and multiple tight end stuff.
60:00And Doyle was certainly somebody that made an impact in Chicago in their play calling and certainly their play designs.
60:06And so he's doing that now in Baltimore. And it should work out for Lamar.
60:10Hopefully he's healthy and he stays that way. All right, we've got Joe Burrow.
60:15We've got Drake May, Joe Burrow, and Jaden Daniels as QBs 3, 4, and 5, respectively, in rounds 5.
60:20May, Burrow, Daniels. You guys rank them just like that for Jamie.
60:24And Dave, you actually have May, Burrow, Hurts, and then Daniels.
60:27Mm-hmm. Okay, so this seems like good ADP for those guys.
60:30Do you put Daniels ahead of Burrow in four-point for passing touchdown leagues?
60:34Yep. You have to. I don't know that you do necessarily.
60:38It depends who you feel is safer. You know, both of them have injury concerns, but I think if they're both healthy,
60:44I think Burrow's safer just because, man, the talent around him is insane.
60:48Burrow is definitely safer. Yeah. I don't know, definitely safer.
60:51He's safer. Jaden Daniels, I give this stat a lot.
60:54He only played 100% of the snaps in four games.
60:57Based on those four games. He averaged 22.7 points in four-point per pass in touchdown leagues and 26 points per game in six-point per pass in touchdown leagues.
61:05And, oh, no. Shoot. That was 20. I'm sorry.
61:08That was 2024. Yeah, I was about to say.
61:10Oh, sorry about that. All right. Dave had to go.
61:13Jamie will finish up Jalen Hurts in round six.
61:16And then we've got Jackson Dart and Dak Prescott at the 7-8 turn.
61:20What do you think about Dak being there? At the 7-8 turn?
61:24Yeah. Well, so sort of at the beginning of that big tier.
61:27So after Jalen Hurts, we have Jackson Dart and Dak Prescott.
61:30And then Caleb and Herbert and Lawrence and Purdy and Stafford and Mahomes and Nix and Goff, et cetera.
61:36Yeah. I mean, listen. This is where these guys are going to get drafted.
61:40So it's the right range for them, and I think hopefully they perform, stay healthy, do everything you're counting on.
61:46You know, we start to get to that point with running backs and receivers where there's a falloff.
61:52So it's easy to gravitate to a quarterback, as you said.
61:55But do you think Prescott – because we kind of said Dart feels like a reach there at the beginning of this big tier of really good quarterbacks.
62:03What do you think about Prescott there? I like Dak.
62:06I think what we saw from him last year is replicable when you have these two receivers that are playing at a high level.
62:13So the pass attempts will be there. He typically averages about 34 pass attempts per season – per game per season.
62:19And the thing that makes me nervous is he hasn't had back-to-back healthy seasons since 2018, 2019.
62:24So can he overcome that and stay healthy for the second year in a row?
62:29But I think Dallas is going to be a fantastic team overall.
62:33I think they're going to take a big step forward because their defense got better.
62:37And that's the really concern is that the defense get better enough to where we lose a little bit of that shootout potential.
62:44But I think just Dak has everything that you look for in terms of the fantasy profile because of the receivers he plays with.
62:51Then we have Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert in round eight.
62:54You definitively like Herbert better than Caleb? I do.
62:57Boy, that's a tough one for me. All right, you go Herbert there.
63:01Then we have Lawrence in round nine. You like Lawrence better than Caleb, right?
63:05I do. Do you like Brock Purdy better than Caleb Williams?
63:08No. Okay. So this is maybe where you would put Caleb Williams.
63:12Also in round nine, we have Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes at the 9-10 turn.
63:17Purdy is one of the best values you can find.
63:20I want to tell you one thing I don't love about Purdy, though, because I do love him as a player.
63:26He's been top 11 per game in three straight seasons, top six per game in two of the last three seasons.
63:33He's a good rusher. He's an underrated player. But the problem I see is I hate his schedule.
63:38Rams twice. They might have the best defense in football.
63:41Seattle twice. They had arguably the best defense in football last year.
63:44Only one game against Arizona. He plays them in week 18.
63:48He gets Denver. He gets Minnesota. The fantasy playoffs at the Chargers, at the Chiefs, home against Philadelphia.
63:53When you look at last year, he put up huge numbers against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Bears.
63:58Those were great matchups at the end of the year.
64:01In his last three games, he struggled twice against – he scored 10.5 fantasy points in two games combined against Seattle.
64:07One of those was in the playoffs. He played okay against Philadelphia in the fantasy playoffs.
64:12So I love Purdy. I hate the schedule. What do you think?
64:16That's a really good point. And you're also asking him to rely on a 32-year-old George Kittle coming off an Achilles injury,
64:22a 32-year-old Mike Evans who struggled to stay healthy each of the last two seasons, a 30-year-old Christian McCaffrey who hasn't been
64:29able to sustain health after 400-plus touch seasons twice in his career, Ricky Pearsall who hasn't stayed healthy.
64:34There's a lot of things that go wrong for him, I guess.
64:38So, yeah, that's a little bit of a knock against him.
64:41But at least for me, I'm not drafting him as a number one quarterback.
64:45He's in that group, like you said, of borderline number one, number two quarterbacks.
64:49So I think it's worth the cost where you're getting.
64:52And Eric says, good call, Adam, but he somehow seems to make it work.
64:56And that's kind of how I feel about Purdy.
64:59It's like, yes, somehow the 49ers offense in general, just they seem to make it work.
65:04All right. So we go Purdy. We're running out of time.
65:07I don't know what else to say about Matthew Stafford.
65:10We haven't really said anything about him, but he was the best pick in fantasy last year.
65:15What do you think about Stafford? Yeah. I mean, look, the value is still good on what he can give you because,
65:22you know, as you're watching on YouTube, of his last five seasons, two were absolutely amazing and historic.
65:27One led to a Super Bowl run. One arguably should have been a Super Bowl run.
65:32It was NFL MVP season last year. And then three years of mediocre production.
65:36You know, how much of that was the back?
65:39How much of that was the receiving core being banged up?
65:42I think you look at what Stafford still has to offer at 38 years old and everything around him.
65:47The only concern that I would have is, do we get the yard still?
65:52I think the touchdowns can be close, which is a big ask, but I think it could be close.
65:57But their defense could just be so dominant that he doesn't throw as much.
66:01So we still see the red zone touchdowns. We still see the opportunity for him to be north of 40 or right around 40.
66:09I would probably peg it around like 38. But I think we're going to see a downward decline in the yards.
66:15I think last year was his second most yard of his career, right?
66:1947-07? I'm not sure. It was a top three season for him.
66:22He had a 5,000-yard year once in Detroit. Matthew Stafford is like the only quarterback in the last five years, last four
66:29years, to average 24 or more fantasy points and six points per passing touchdown leagues while being on pace for fewer than 200 rushing yards.
66:36So he bucked the trend. It used to happen quite a bit, though.
66:40Tom Brady, Matt Ryan twice. Tom Brady multiple times.
66:43Drew Brees multiple times. Matthew Stafford has actually done it twice.
66:46Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott. Guys who didn't run a lot, they still could have huge fantasy seasons.
66:52But it hadn't really happened in a while until Stafford did it.
66:55Keep that in mind for him. Keep that in mind for Jared Goff.
66:59All right, Mahomes at the 9-10 turn. You just heard two different takes.
67:03Jamie doesn't like it. Dave does. Bo Nix in round 11.
67:06I mean, again, if he stays in the 9-10 range, it's fine.
67:10It's just I look at it, the overall QB number.
67:13There are guys I like a little bit better than Mahomes after him.
67:17Fair enough. What about Bo Nix, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray?
67:20It's so funny how we treat Bo Nix. We've said this several times now.
67:24Like, Josh Allen. Oh, my God, look, he just got DJ Moore.
67:28Oh, my God, Drake May just got AJ Brown.
67:31Oh, my God, this quarterback gets that guy. This quarterback gets this other player.
67:35Oh, God, Bo Nix got Jalen Waddle. Eh, we're going to downgrade him based on where he finished.
67:40Yeah. Look, I'm guilty of it, too. I'm concerned about the ankle injury limiting his rushing production because he's given you about
67:47350 rushing yards each of the last two seasons.
67:49But he's been a top 12 quarterback in each of the last two seasons.
67:53And now he has Jalen Waddle. And so I think there's an argument to be made that he's one of the better
68:00values you can get on draft day. I would not want to draft him as a number one quarterback.
68:06But one of the high end number two guys is great.
68:09Bo Nix has been one of the worst throwers in the NFL of passes of 30 or more air yards.
68:15I usually look at 20 or more air yards.
68:18But when it comes to just throwing the ball deep downfield, he stinks.
68:21And he does it all the time. He's got among the most pass attempts of 30 or more air yards.
68:27If Jalen Waddle can help him there or he just gets better, that could unlock a new weapon for Bo Nix.
68:34Jared Goff we love in round 11. Baker Mayfield in round 13.
68:37Kyler Murray in round 13. And now we're 18 quarterbacks deep.
68:40And maybe, for me anyway, that's kind of where I look at it and go, all right, I don't know that I've
68:47got a potential league winner after this. But maybe you feel differently because we have Jordan Love.
68:52And if he starts, listen, man, if you're worried about Josh Jacobs, you should be higher on Jordan Love out there.
68:58If he starts throwing more, it'd be really good.
69:01Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis. Okay, then we've got Sam Darnold, CJ Stroud, Cam Ward, Fernando Mendoza, Daniel Jones was great last year.
69:07Bryce Young after Daniel Jones, it gets kind of yucky.
69:10Um, but is there anyone you want to talk about other than we talked about Love, Shuck, Willis?
69:16We got Darnold, Stroud, Ward, Mendoza, Daniel Jones. Jones is certainly intriguing because of what he did last year.
69:21But coming off the Achilles injury, we know that he needs to run a little bit.
69:26I don't know if he needs to get back to running like he did when he was at the start of his Giants career.
69:33But I think that matters. And so coming off the Achilles, I think it's going to be a little bit of a tough ask.
69:40So more of a super flex option. Sam Darnold, another guy that I think will throw a little bit more this year
69:47because the run game could be suspect. But do you love the weapons aside from Jackson Smith and the Jigba?
69:53You know, you've gotten some positive pub from Rashid Shahid.
69:56You mentioned the Albert Breer story. You know, Shahid was prominently mentioned in that article as well.
70:01So I'm curious about Cam Ward. You know, I could see a strong season for him.
70:06I don't know to what heights, but like in that 20 point per game range, you know, he closed last year playing
70:12very well before the shoulder injury in week 18.
70:15And now you give him Cardinal Tate. You give him Wondell Robinson.
70:18You give him Brian Dable. And so hopefully the increased weapons and better coaching maybe helps him take a step forward as well.
70:25So somebody you want to keep an eye on.
70:28Jamie, can I interrupt you? I forgot there's one thing I wanted to mention that I forgot.
70:33And for those of you who are listening to the whole show, I went back.
70:38I looked at quarterbacks who were drafted after QB 12 and finished top eight.
70:42So I call them the biggest surprise quarterbacks in fantasy.
70:45OK, a lot of them, not all of them, not even half of them, but I'm going to guess about 40 percent had new offensive coordinators.
70:52And you look at Justin Herbert, you look at Cam Ward.
70:56There are so many new offensive coordinators this season, by the way.
70:59Lamar Jackson. But last year, Lamar Jackson. But last year it was Trevor Lawrence and I don't think Caleb Williams was drafted after QB 12.
71:07Maybe it was Q. Who's that? Baker. Baker two years ago had a new offensive coordinator and was one of those surprise quarterbacks.
71:13Well, Baker did last year too. Yeah. And he sucked.
71:16But it is kind of a common theme. Like once upon a time was Ben Roethlisberger.
71:21I got a new offensive coordinator and had a big season.
71:24Dak Prescott got Kellen Moore and was one of the surprise quarterbacks.
71:28So Caleb Williams got Ben Johnson. Right. I do think he was one of the guys on the list.
71:34So it is maybe a little bit of a cheat code.
71:37Not the best cheat code. It's a cheat code that works sometimes.
71:41But it's a cheat code nonetheless. And Daniel Jones actually, I think he had his lowest rushing output of his career last year.
71:47He had his worst yards per carry. He was on pace for only 227 yards in his healthy games.
71:53So he actually showed last year, Daniel Jones, that he could be good without running the ball a lot.
71:59But, you know, coming off. When you say healthy games, do you factor in the two that he played with a broken leg?
72:05Yeah. I just don't. I removed week 14 where he played like a quarter.
72:10Gotcha. Yeah. And then I don't know if there's anyone else.
72:13Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers, Shadur Sanders, Jacoby Brissett, J.J.
72:16McCarthy. That's interesting. You know, again, what he did last year.
72:19But do they lead the NFL in pass attempts?
72:22And how much does he, how long does he hold on to the job if he starts to struggle or the team
72:28starts to struggle and they go to Carson back?
72:31And then obviously once we figure out who the Falcons quarterback is, that guy could be a top 20 guy.
72:37You know, he could definitely be someone we're streaming for sure.
72:40Sure. But tough to know who it's going to be.
72:43If you had to pick a quarterback that is, if you're looking at ADP, QB 15 or later.
72:48QB 16 or later. Who would you be to be a top 12 guy?
72:52I'm going to say QB 18, QB 19 or later because 16, 17, 18 are golf Mayfield Murray.
72:58So after that, it's love Shuck Willis. It's got to be one of them to be a top 12 guy.
73:04I would say. I would say Jordan Love. Then Willis, then Shuck.
73:07And I would say sleeper in the two quarterback leagues would be C.J.
73:11Stroud. We've seen, you know, when things are right and his guys are healthy, he's fine.
73:16He's a good, I think, two quarterback league sleeper.
73:19C.J. Stroud. I don't think he can be top.
73:21I think he could be top 12. I mean, there's always guys that get in the back end.
73:27I don't think you have a great year. How's that for an answer?
73:30Good. I just, I looked at Malik Willis, man, his rushing is just insane.
73:35Like he's so talented. Could be. Yeah. Yeah. That's our quarterback preview.
73:38Woo. Tight ends tomorrow. Thank you so much, everybody, for watching and listening.
73:42We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
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