PodcastFrom Fantasy Focus Football
The MOST Complicated Backfields to Assess for Your Draft! | Fantasy Focus
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 3 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 19, 2026
Published
Wed, August 19, 2026
28
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Chris RodriguezChuba HubbardGeorge KittleJonathon BrooksTucker KraftAlvin KamaraBlake CorumBucky IrvingChristian McCaffreyDavid MontgomeryJa'Marr ChaseJaylen WarrenJeremiyah LoveJosh Downs
Player analysis
Player insights
Alvin Kamara
NegativeInjury3:28
Alvin Kamara will miss at least a month due to an MCL sprain. Mike Clay notes that Kamara was already being drafted as a late-round insurance back with a limited carry role, similar to a Justice Hill-type usage, and this injury further diminishes his outlook.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveBreakout95:21
Blake Corum is a riser in Crocs. You's rankings to RB30 because the gap between his current ADP (RB40) and Kyron Williams (RB18) is too wide. Sean McVay has indicated Corum will be a big factor this year, and he showed increased usage in the second half of last season.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveValue32:09
Irving is losing appeal as a draft target due to the addition of Kenny Gainwell and a lack of goal-line usage; he recorded zero carries inside the five-yard line last season. While he remains the starter on the depth chart, his ceiling appears capped, and he is being passed over in drafts for better values.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeRole27:21
Chris Rodriguez is expected to handle goal-line and early-down work for the Jaguars, but he is not considered a factor in the passing game. Despite a $6 million guarantee, his limited career usage and lack of receiving production make him a depth-focused asset.
Insight pageNegativeRole30:48
There is no clear pathway for Rodriguez to secure a consistent weekly fantasy role. He would require a LeGarrette Blount-style workload in a highly efficient offense to be relevant, which is not expected, making him a clear secondary option behind Tootin.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection42:43
Despite injury concerns, Christian McCaffrey remains a strong pick at the number three spot. Recent reports from Adam Schefter and Kyle Shanahan suggest his injury is not serious and he could be available for Week 1.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeUsage35:57
Chuba Hubbard is viewed as a serviceable depth piece who can provide 11-13 points in a pinch, but he is not considered a league-winning player. The team is expected to be judicious with Jonathan Brooks, potentially keeping Hubbard in a role early in the season if he remains available.
Insight pageNegativeValue56:41
Hubbard is considered a serviceable, floor-based play rather than a league-winning target. He is currently dealing with a hamstring injury and has historically struggled with efficiency, ranking 64th among 65 qualified backs in forced missed tackle rate last season.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue39:01
David Montgomery is preferred over Woody Marks at current costs. Despite being 29 and coming off career lows, he is expected to be the primary back the team leans on. However, his fourth-round ADP is considered too expensive by some, as he may face a committee if his performance slips.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveValue53:48
George Kittle is a riser in rankings as he is expected to be available for Week 1 or Week 2 after initial injury concerns.
Insight pagePositiveProjection89:58
George Kittle is a high-upside target in the ninth round. Despite a slow start due to an Achilles injury, he has finished sixth or better in fantasy points per game for eight consecutive seasons and remains an elite producer in a top-tier offense.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection45:02
Jamar Chase is the preferred pick at the number three overall spot, despite the temptation of running backs like Christian McCaffrey.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
NegativeRole45:42
Warren is expected to see a reduction in rushing volume and may be relegated to a third-down, change-of-pace receiving role similar to the one Kenny Gainwell previously held. His fantasy outlook is dampened by the team's addition of Rico Dowdle.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveBreakout51:10
Jeremiah Love is a riser (RB14 to RB11) despite a high ankle sprain. He is viewed as more talented than Ashton Gentry, and the offensive scheme is expected to be more creative and friendly to his skill set. He is considered a future top-five running back candidate.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeProjection36:18
The Panthers are expected to be very cautious with Jonathan Brooks due to back-to-back major knee injuries, likely resulting in a year of easing him into the offense. While he may provide highlight plays and explosive runs, he is not expected to immediately vault the team to the top of the division.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout56:35
Brooks is viewed as a high-ceiling breakout candidate who could eventually take control of the Panthers' backfield. However, the team is expected to be extremely cautious with his usage following back-to-back knee injuries.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeBust48:57
Josh Downs is considered a technical faller, moving from WR45 to essentially unranked due to injury history and missing time in the preseason.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeBust47:12
Josh Jacobs is a faller due to age (28), high career volume, a current groin injury, and the potential for league discipline/suspension. While he has been a touchdown machine, he has been moved down to the bottom of the RB 6-15 tier.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue32:12
Gainwell is a preferred target over Bucky Irving due to his pass-catching ability and significant two-year, $14 million contract. Drafted in the 13th round compared to Irving's fifth-round ADP, Gainwell offers a much better value proposition for a similar projected fantasy output.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeUsage95:38
Kyron Williams remains the clear RB1 in the Rams offense, though Crocs. You expects Blake Corum to potentially take more carries this season. Despite the competition, Williams is viewed as the primary back, with Corum lacking standalone value while Williams is healthy.
Insight pageNajee Harris
NegativeRole6:47
Najee Harris signed with the Giants with $3 million guaranteed. Field Yates believes he will play a real role as a physical back, though not necessarily a lead-back role. Harris is currently recovering from an Achilles tear and admits he is not yet in full football shape.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeBust49:11
Puka Nakua has moved down in rankings due to the risk of a potential suspension. While he remains a high-upside player, the uncertainty surrounding his availability makes him a riskier pick compared to other top wide receivers.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
NegativeRole17:34
Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to handle early-down and goal-line work for the Patriots. While he had a 2-1 touch advantage over Travion Henderson in the playoffs, his fantasy ceiling is capped when both are active. He is considered a 'steady' option for those needing depth.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveValue45:25
Dowdle is preferred over Jalen Warren due to his status as a 'real' running back and his history with head coach Mike McCarthy. While concerns exist regarding McCarthy's historically low usage of running backs in the passing game, Dowdle is considered a solid flex option at a cheaper ADP than Warren.
Insight pageSean Tucker
NegativeRole38:52
Tucker is expected to be the third back in Tampa Bay but is projected to have a real role in goal-line and passing situations, potentially complicating the backfield further for both Irving and Gainwell.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue53:48
Tucker Craft is a riser in rankings as he is expected to play by Week 1 or Week 2. While he was previously touchdown-dependent, he showed target growth last year, though he remains somewhat expensive to draft.
Insight pageNegativeValue89:18
Crocs. You remains hesitant on Tucker Kraft due to injury concerns and his current ADP, which is higher than other options like Kyle Pitts or Sam LaPorta. While he showed target growth last year with back-to-back 10-target games, he was highly touchdown-dependent, scoring six times on an expected total of 1.8.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeValue39:01
Woody Marks is not viewed as a feature back, as the team likely would not have invested in David Montgomery if they believed Marks was the primary solution.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hey Washington, D.C. Class it up with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast.
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0:18Visit your nearest Crocs store today. You in the 06010.
0:20Friends, welcome into Fantasy Focus Football alongside Field Yates and Mike Clay.
0:24My name is Daniel Dopp. We have a big show planned for you today.
0:27Toughest backfields to assess. We're going to dive into a bunch of the backfields.
0:31Really difficult to figure out what we want to do in fantasy.
0:34Some preseason risers and fallers as well. People moving up and down our ranks and a little bit of salary draft and some draft advice as well.
0:41So fun things in the show. How are you guys doing today?
0:45It's Wednesday. Yeah, we're doing great. I'm doing great.
0:47I'll let Mike answer in a second. I think that answer for him.
0:50We're doing great. Here it is. Mike is doing awesome as well.
0:54I find that we get a lot of questions about draft strategy.
0:57So salary cap, you may know them as auction drafts.
1:00We'll talk about those later on. And then also if you haven't played Dynasty or you're struggling with your Dynasty, at least
1:05we might give you some friendly tips. And I think the goal of the difficult backfields, I think, is deciding, is there
1:11somebody that's worth prioritizing or are we just headed for a running back dead zone?
1:15Yes. Which can happen with usually a handful of teams per season.
1:19So Mike, how are you? I'm good. I mean, you guys kind of stole the thunder.
1:23You spoke for me. You set up the show.
1:25So, I mean, I'll just move on. Live show.
1:28August 20th. There we go, Mike Clay! 7 p.m.
1:30Eastern live from Racket NYC. That is tomorrow. Yeah.
1:32Okay. Last chance. That's it. And hang out with this great crew.
1:36You know, we clearly have a good time. You could come hang with us.
1:39Yes. We'll have some drinks. We'll talk fantasy for a while.
1:42Take some Q&A. So comment out and have some fun.
1:45Also, our guy Eric Moody is in the chat.
1:47Way to go, Michael! Daniel, take the rest of the season off.
1:51This is a good chance. I mean, I have to do something.
1:54You guys took all the fun stuff. Mike Clay variety hour starts right now.
1:58That's right. I got it covered. All right. Well, before we dive into all the stuff we just talked about, we need a little bit of news.
2:05So let's talk about it. We got a lot to get into today.
2:08We're going to take some questions from chat a little bit later on in the show, but we're going to start, unfortunately, with Alvin Kamara.
2:15We got some news. He is going to miss, quote, at least a month, unfortunately, with an MCL sprain.
2:20Mike, the projections guy. That's me. When you see this, yes, that is you.
2:24When you see this, unfortunately, not great news, not only for Alvin Kamara, but hopefully maybe some good news for Travis H.
2:30How are you adjusting the projections? There's a hair of hesitation in your head.
2:33I sense it as well. Yeah. Yeah. Well, first of all, Kamara has been a fine, like kind of later round pick, right?
2:39Just because we expect that he might have that.
2:42I don't want to say like Kenny Gainwell last year, but sort of that role where not a lot in the carry
2:48department, but a lot of passing game work enough to maybe maybe like a Justice Hill role where he could kind of
2:54flirt like a deep league flex sort of situation if things go his way.
2:57But he is 31 years old. In the NFL, at least a good insurance back.
3:01He'll get some carries early in the season, maybe a target or two, but it's going to be the H and show.
3:07Here's the thing, though, guys. I have a Chan at 17 in my rankings.
3:11Who's ahead of him? Javante Williams, Josh Jacobs, Marion Hampton, Brees Hall.
3:14Like he's already at the top of a tier for me.
3:17So even if I'm if he's more likely to go overall a little earlier, it doesn't really move him much in my running back rankings.
3:24I did tell you guys before the show, though, had a best ball draft last night.
3:28I did take him at the turn over Brees Hall and Josh Jacobs.
3:32Those guys have Hall injury issues. We'll consider him questionable for week one.
3:35And obviously, Josh Jacobs looks like he'll be back at practice, but he is a candidate for suspension as well.
3:40Not to mention he's 28 years old. So coming off massive workload.
3:44So I think it kind of closes the gap between those guys, including Javante Williams.
3:48For me, if you want to take him over all those guys.
3:51Yeah. Nope. No problem. As far as the projection goes up, but he stays in the same tier.
3:56He just like creates a little bit more. Yeah.
3:58He's just a little closer to those guys and it makes it more palatable to take him over.
4:03Some of those guys are question marks. Sure. We can talk about Najee Harris here.
4:07Yeah, let's dive in field as good stuff there from Mike on Alvin Kamara, what it means for HN.
4:12Najee Harris is now New York Giant. Yep. And I remember when this deal was first reported, I was like, there's one more shoe that has to drop.
4:19It's the money. What is the money here? It's not some gigantic, crazy contract, but it's got $3 million guaranteed.
4:25I think with the upside to be worth $5.5 million.
4:27If the Giants had just signed a veteran running back, I probably would have dismissed it and said, let's move on here.
4:33I don't think this is nothing. I think it's something for this Giants backfield.
4:37Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy and Cam Scadamu. I probably had that order exactly wrong when I read them off in terms
4:43of fantasy relevance, but I do think this is a bit of a downgrade, a bit of a downgrade for Cam Scadamu,
4:49who dropped down two spots in my running back rankings.
4:51He's been hovering on that border of low-end RB2 or top-end flex, and I think he maybe pushes himself down a little
4:57bit to top-end flex because I think Najee's going to play a real role, right?
5:01Like, he's coming off of an Achilles tear, but he missed all of last season.
5:05That injury was sustained prior to last season. So Najee Harris has basically had 12 months to get himself back into football shape.
5:11He's got familiarity with the Harbaugh's in general, right?
5:14It was Jim Harbaugh last year who he signed with.
5:17Now it's John Harbaugh. He does sort of fit with what I think John Harbaugh wants a running back to play like, a physical bigger back.
5:23So I think it takes a little bit of the shine off of Cam Scadamu, still clearly and obviously the Giants running
5:29back that you want to draft, but a little bit less valuable today because Najee Harris will play a role, not necessarily
5:35a lead back role, but he's going to have a role.
5:38Yeah, I agree that they're going to try and see if that'll work out.
5:42I think the quote from John Harbaugh was kind of like, you know, we'll see.
5:46We're going to bring him in, see if he, and Harris himself admits he's not in football shape yet.
5:51So we'll see how it works out. So, but at the end of the day for me as a Scadaboo guy, guy wants to draft him.
5:58I hope this just knocks his ADP down a little bit.
6:01Cause I would, I still want to, I still want to pick them.
6:04Like if I, he's going in the fourth round right now, if he, he might fall now to the fifth, sixth round.
6:10And if that's the case, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to take a shot because I believe in the talent.
6:16And remember last year he was facing off with Tracy and Singletary and he emerges the clear lead back.
6:21And he had a touchdown per game. He was basically delivering as a top 10 scoring fantasy running back.
6:26So I think there's a lot to like there.
6:28And I will say this about Harris the first three weeks last season, he had a role with the chargers, but I'm sorry.
6:35It was early in the, I said he got hurt before.
6:37Yeah. It was a week three. I believe he went down.
6:40Um, but it was very clear that Hampton was going to take control there.
6:44Like we kind of all saw that coming when he was fading away.
6:48He was kind of a non-factor in fantasy, just getting a few touches a game.
6:52I believe in the talent of Scadaboo. I think that happens here too.
6:55I think it's going to be very evident early on when Harris is average at three and a half yards per carry that Scadaboo is the guy.
7:02And then he's going to emerge in our fantasy.
7:05My pushback would be this is in Hampton. I think one of the reasons why the chargers, well, the chargers signed Najee
7:11Harris before they drafted Omari and Hampton. Right. So if, if, if memory serves, Ham, uh, Najee Harris was not signed in like June.
7:17I could be wrong there. Uh, but the bottom line is that like, I think part of the Najee Harris value for
7:23them last year was like not putting too much on a rookie's plate.
7:26I think in the case of Scadaboo, while you're right, the cream rises and he's a better player, more talented player, younger player than Najee Harris.
7:33Wear and tear is the single greatest concern for Cam Scadaboo.
7:36Yeah. He's an awesome player whose body has been through a lot at this age of his career that even if Cam
7:42Scadaboo is humming, I still think that there's a part of the Giants that's like, yeah, he's playing great, but we got to be careful with this guy.
7:50He's coming off of a huge, nasty ankle injury and plays with as physical of a style of any running back, not
7:55named maybe Derek Henry or Jonathan Taylor in the NFL.
7:58Yep. I do think there's a bit of protecting him, which is why I'm moving down a couple of the spots, not
8:04dramatically, but I do think this Najee Harris has a signing has a little bit of fantasy relevance.
8:09I'm going to keep an eye on Devin Singletary to one of these teams that needs running back depth could be a,
8:15uh, maybe a cut day trade to like green may or something like that.
8:18I'll be keeping an eye on that as well.
8:21I think we should put red, no contact jerseys on Malik neighbors, Cam Scadaboo and Jackson Dart.
8:25Cause all three of them could be unbelievable. All giants and fantasy, all giants and all 49ers.
8:30Yes. Don't touch. Yes. Don't touch any of them.
8:32In fact, don't even practice. It's like the Niners can still get the job done though.
8:37Like as a collective offense. Yeah. That's Kyle Shanahan.
8:39I mean, the guy is just ridiculous. Like I said this yesterday.
8:42Uh, I don't think I forget where it was.
8:45Sorry. I might've been just in conversation with one of you guys out the show.
8:49The only player who I think is indispensable to their offense.
8:52The only one is Christian McCaffrey. Like we have proof of concept that Mac Jones can play good quarterback for the Niners.
8:57Yeah. Jake Tonjes was a usable tight end when George Kittle was out.
9:01We've seen wide receivers shuffle weekly in San Francisco.
9:03CMC is out. It wasn't as good. Like Jordan Mason had that moment there and then it very quickly fizzled.
9:09Yeah. That is not a complicated backfield. That one is clear for CMC.
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10:19But we are going to dive into some complicated backfields.
10:22Hopefully help you guys decide what you should do with them in fantasy.
10:25If nothing else, we're just going to talk through it.
10:28Because we all have some feelings on figuring out where these players land in our rankings field.
10:32We're going to start with, I think, the team that is the hardest to figure out.
10:36Because I think they're just the highest ranked of all of these players here.
10:40And that's the New England Patriots. I know we've talked about them a lot.
10:44But let's talk about these running backs. These guys are reasonably high ranked.
10:47And they have a very narrow gap between them.
10:50Yes. And across the board for ESPN rankers. It's Ramondre Stevenson and Travion Henderson.
10:54I think it's important to note that by the end of last year, Ramondre Stevenson was playing a much bigger role than Travion Henderson.
11:00To be specific, in the playoffs, you guys would agree?
11:03The most important games of the year, right? Yes.
11:05The four most important games of the Patriots season last year.
11:08Ramondre Stevenson had 70 touches. Travion Henderson had 35.
11:10It was a 2-1 Ramondre Stevenson edge. As we know, Ramondre Stevenson is going to get more likely, is more likely to get the goal line carries.
11:18Yep. Probably the early down carries. We also know that if you get 12 touches, Travion Henderson has a much better chance
11:24of turning those 12 touches into 20 fantasy points.
11:26He's amongst the most explosive players in the NFL.
11:28So, to me, the question is, has Travion Henderson closed the gap enough to think that rather than getting maybe 8, 10,
11:34or 12 opportunities per game, he can get 15, 16, or 17?
11:37If he can, the answer is giddy up. It's the Travion Henderson fantasy show.
11:41If he can't, then we kind of enter purgatory.
11:44And I don't think he can. I think that Ramondre Stevenson still does so many of the things right that the Patriots value.
11:50And in the two games that both of these players were on the field last year, Mike has used a variation of this stat.
11:56Travion Henderson, when Ramondre was in the game, averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game.
12:00That's not usable. Travion, Ramondre didn't miss any games last year.
12:03He averaged 12.8 fantasy points. Not bad, but not good enough to be an RB2 for us.
12:07As we know, when Ramondre was out, Travion was excellent in two of the three games.
12:1212.7 fantasy points and then 28 and 32.3. So if you're projecting health for both of these guys, it feels like we
12:17are entering into a spot where neither one of them really has that much upside if they're both on the field.
12:23Correct. As long as they are both out there, they have capped each other's ceiling in a pretty significant way, which is
12:29why we have them ranked where we're at. If you're throwing a dart in a draft, are you throwing that dart at
12:35Travion based on his ADP or on Ramondre? So I have Ramondre ranked a couple of spots higher than Travion, but I
12:41will tell you this, if it really comes, broken record here, what do you need in the draft?
12:46Yep. If you have to that point hammered away with, if you started your build with Jonathan Taylor and Derek Henry somehow, which is actually possible.
12:52And you've, listen, I got two of the biggest workload backs who are going to, by the end of the season, be
12:58top five in rushing yards and probably top five in rushing touchdowns as well.
13:02I just need the lottery ticket. Yes. Travion. If you need someone who's more steady Eddie and you're like, you're, you're concerned
13:08about your running back depth overall, you just need, but you need them just for a couple of weeks.
13:13It's Ramondre. So it comes down to knowing your needs.
13:16Love that. And kind of, here's the problem. Travion Anderson, second year running back, flashed a little last year at some big games.
13:22He still has that shiny new car sort of feel to him.
13:25He's going to the fifth round across the industry of 12 team leagues.
13:29It's too expensive. What am I missing? It's just too expensive.
13:31Well, I think what you're missing is just that, what I just said.
13:35I mean, I don't think you're missing it. I think that's the appeal.
13:38I just don't, I don't agree with that. He, again, he out carried him in the regular season last year when they were both active together.
13:45You would expect that to expand. It's just, it's kind of tricky.
13:49Had they had that workload stayed the same in the playoffs?
13:51I think there'd be even more Travion Henderson. I think it's just the fact that he disappeared in the playoffs.
13:57It's worrying some people. So I think the bottom line is Henderson has a higher ceiling, which makes him a little more appealing, appealing straight up to me.
14:04Stevenson. I don't think it's going to be usable anyway, unless they use him like they did in the playoffs, which I don't think is going to happen.
14:12I think that he's 28. Henderson, in theory, should play a little more in year two.
14:16I don't think that's going to happen. So as far as I'm concerned, there's a cap on Stevenson.
14:21That's why I don't want him. But he is two rounds cheaper.
14:24So to answer your question, Stevenson's a little more palatable to me because I'd at least consider him in round seven.
14:30Whereas Henderson, at round five, I just can't do it.
14:32I mean, there's just too many. The opportunity cost is too much with the wide receiver talent.
14:37And sometimes like a Tyler Warren will fall to the fifth round.
14:40That's actually where I target him. And there's other running backs like Bucky Irving and Toon and DeAndre Swift, who we've talked about this week.
14:47I mean, I just can't do it in round five.
14:49The last thing I'll say on this and then move on to the Jaguars and Mike's going to take the lead there
14:55is that there is an argument like, yeah, like Travion Henderson's going to have more weeks at the end of the season
15:01with like top five or eight or ten finishes.
15:04Ramondre wasn't that far behind in that category last year.
15:06They got the job done in very different manners.
15:09But like week 18 are I know we weren't playing in week 18, but week 18, Ramondre was the number one scoring
15:15running back in all of fantasy football. He came out of the gates with like an RB six finish last year and
15:20week one for the Patriots last year, RB six.
15:23So Travion way more explosive player. But Ramondre, it's not like you're getting a way more explosive player who's bound to hit
15:29top ten finishes seven times to Ramondre's twice. They might both be a top ten finisher three times this upcoming season.
15:34Yeah. And they were remember New England infamously had our very light schedule last year to be a little tougher this year.
15:40And also they didn't have reliable wide receiver talent like they do now.
15:44So the offense is going to be less dependent on the backfield.
15:47We had a poll in the chat while we were talking about this conversation.
15:51It's a great time in case you don't come and hang out in the YouTube chat.
15:55Come and do that in the middle of the show.
15:58We have a lot of polls that we throw up in there.
16:0161 percent of the chat would rather have Travion Henderson right now over at Ramondre.
16:05We are against the rain. Yes, that is just because of the price, unfortunately, that we feel opposite.
16:10All right. Let's talk about the Jaguars, Mike, because this one's interesting, too.
16:13Yeah. Bashal A-chan. Is that? No, no, no. Travis A-chan is gone.
16:16That's right. On this backfield. So, yeah. So it's A-chan out.
16:19Chris Rodriguez is in. So it's going to be a different dynamic.
16:22I don't think it's any surprise at this point that this is going to be a committee, at least to open the season.
16:29Now, I'll start by pointing this out. Going in like even right now, assuming they're all three guys healthy because it's not two.
16:35It's three guys. Yeah. I would expect Chris Rodriguez to be the goal line and early down back kind of have the edge and carries.
16:41Potentially, you have LaQuinn Allen passing down specialist. And, of course, you have Bashal Toon, who overall we expect will have the
16:47most well-rounded role and has the highest ceiling and the best back and the most opportunity to be fantasy relevant.
16:53LaQuinn Allen is injured right now. So we don't know if he's going to be ready to go for week one or
16:58for the early part of the season. If that's the case, even better news for Toon.
17:03Because, look, Chris Rodriguez is not going to be a factor in the passing game.
17:07This was a 2023 sixth round pick. He's been a depth guy.
17:10I mean, he's been waived and on practice squads and then promoted.
17:13Like, this guy has not been a factor quite often.
17:16And career high in touches last year in Washington was 115.
17:19Now, he has run the ball well. But, again, this guy has.
17:22Get ready for this. In his career in the NFL.
17:25Let me guess. Six. Seven. Oh, he has seven catches?
17:27He has seven targets. Not even catches. That's amazing.
17:30Seven catches. Targets in his career. Now, I think he'll probably have more than seven targets this season, but probably not by a lot.
17:36They did guarantee him over $6 million. So, he'll have a role in this offense.
17:40But I think Toon is the guy we're looking at.
17:43A very effective last season. A lot of touchdowns.
17:45He was a touchdown maker last year. He did clear 10 touches in only one game, but he had 74 yards in that game on 15 touches.
17:52Every game in which he had eight touches last year, he scored a touchdown as well.
17:57So, he's an explosive player. And we expect a large role.
18:00He's the potential breakout player here in Jacksonville. I'm at 22 because I think they're going to use a lot of backs.
18:05And he's not a guy that we've seen establish himself yet in the NFL.
18:09But he's a guy we could be talking about as an every week RB2 and what should be a good offense, guys.
18:15If you guys leave the draft with Basial Tootin as your RB2, do you think to yourself, oof, I'm too light there?
18:21Or do you think, all right, that means I'm probably really strong elsewhere.
18:24I think light because he's going in the fifth round.
18:27He's expensive. So, that means it's not like you're like, he's my RB2, but he took him in the eighth round, like a Rico Dowdle or something.
18:34Fifth round ADP is tough. Fifth round is costing you, yeah.
18:37So, it does put you at a disadvantage, I think.
18:40But at the same time, if he breaks out this year, it's going to be fine.
18:44I feel light as well. I would feel light as well if he's my RB2.
18:48The reason why the gap is quite a bit wider between Tootin and Chris Rodriguez, and we talked about with Ramondre and
18:54Travion, who truly are about like back-to-back in my rankings, is I just don't know what the pathway is for Chris Rodriguez
19:00to have an actual fantasy role week in and week out.
19:03It would have to be if he is humming as a runner, and the Jaguars are a well-oiled offensive machine that always
19:09gives him the rock at the very end of drives.
19:11Like, it would have to be like a LeGarrette Blunt type offensive performance from him this year.
19:16I don't see it, so Tootin to me has the clear edge.
19:19That is not to say that Tootin has less risk than other players being drafted around him, but to me, Tootin, the clear preference here in this backfield.
19:27Let's stay in Florida, Daniel, and go to Tampa Bay.
19:29We talked about Bucky Irving a couple days ago.
19:32He is a confusing player by himself, even more so with Kenny Gainwell.
19:35Yeah, this is a really interesting situation here, because when you look at what you're doing in Tampa Bay, it feels like
19:41Bucky Irving we haven't had any conversation on. We haven't talked about Bucky hardly at all this year.
19:46Where do you guys, I'm just curious, right now, where do you guys have him ranked?
19:5021. 21. RB 21? I think I'm, yeah, somewhere in that range.
19:5321, 22, excuse me. 21 for him, 31 for Gainwell, so.
19:56And he's one of these guys that just keeps, whenever you look at Bucky Irving and I see him on that draft
20:02board, right, I'm going through and it's like, it never feels exciting to be like, that's the guy I'm going to go
20:08out and target, because we just have seen the shine come off a little bit here and there, week in and week
20:14out, season in and season out, since we've had that exciting season a couple years ago.
20:18So, yeah, I think the big concern for me is that we saw Kenny Gainwell just play so unbelievably well in Pittsburgh.
20:24You listen to Aaron Rodgers, a future hall of famer, one of the best quarterbacks this league has ever seen.
20:29Speak praises over and over and over about how smart this kid is.
20:33You watch how good he is in the passing game.
20:36When I see this situation in Tampa and the way that they utilized Rashad White last year as well in this situation,
20:41they're not just handing the keys over to Bucky Irving.
20:44He had that shot. He had a chance to be the guy, take the entire backfield to himself, and he didn't do it.
20:50They go out and they add someone that I think is going to be legitimately involved in this offense and Kenny Gainwell.
20:56And because of that, it makes me feel like Bucky Irving.
20:59Okay. He's going to be involved. He'll probably still be the guy at the goal line, but I have just so, so
21:05much less excitement around Bucky Irving this year that I'm mostly passing him in drafts for someone else at that point of where I am drafting.
21:12I think around where he is at, he's just not that exciting to me.
21:16I'd rather wait and grab Kenny Gainwell with the discount and his cost later on, given how good he has been as
21:22a pass catcher, than go with Bucky Irving. So for me, I am a little bit more out on Bucky, even though
21:27we have him in that RB2 range. I think he will be in that RB2 range, but I would prefer Kenny Gainwell
21:33at cost with what I think his skill set is going to bring to this box.
21:38Yeah. Just because you have a player ranked higher than somebody else, it doesn't mean that you're drafting that player more frequently than somebody else.
21:44Yep. A couple of notes here. Bucky Irving's rookie season in some ways was an anomaly.
21:49He came into the NFL, fourth round pick who's tiny.
21:51Like this is a small running back. He's like five, nine, right?
21:54I remember mine amongst my draft notes leading into that year's draft was he and Dylan Lowby who went in the sixth
22:00round of the Raiders were amongst the most productive pass catching backs in the class, but more on the ordinary running side than extraordinary.
22:07Bucky was extraordinary as a rookie at over 1100 rushing, yards, too many, 40 plus catches as a rookie.
22:12And remember weeks one through four last year, dude was busy.
22:15He had 90 touches did Bucky Irving in the first four games.
22:18I was tied for the third most of all running backs.
22:21Only CMC and Saquon had more through the first four weeks.
22:24He was a workhorse going into last year. That was what their eyes were focused in on.
22:28Was. Was right. Was. Then he had this injury and there was, it was frankly, it was shrouded in mystery, right?
22:34It was. And then they gave Kenneth game. I hate to say this because I always feel like this analysis is like unfair to the league.
22:41It feels like the league was maybe wrong on Kenny Gainwell for too long.
22:45Yep. And it's finally been recognized how good of a player he is.
22:48He got two years and 14 million from Tampa.
22:50That's a legit running back contract in today's market.
22:53He's going to have a real role. So I don't exactly know how good of a player Bucky Irving is.
22:58I don't know if he's really built to last.
23:01And I like Kenny Gainwell enough that this backfield brings me Bucky Irving brings me less excitement than Kenny Gainwell does going several rounds.
23:07Can I just tell you? Yeah. I just want to put the several rounds later into context and then I'll let you go, Mike.
23:13So right now, Kenny Gainwell, I'll do this right now.
23:16Maybe I should look at first. Stop it. He is Bucky Irving coming off the board in the sixth middle of the sixth round.
23:23Running back 21. Kenny Gainwell coming off the board in the 13th round.
23:2613. Yeah. I think it's an interesting value. I think the problem I have here is it's not just two guys.
23:32You think Sean Tucker is real? It's probably the third guy.
23:35I have a wild stat here. So as a rookie, Bucky Irving had 12 carries inside the five yard line.
23:40Right. So a lot of goal line work. How many did he have last year?
23:44Now he missed a little time, but he was there from the beginning.
23:47But still he played. Yeah. So I'll say nine.
23:50How many carries inside the five? Six. Zero. No.
23:52He had zero carries inside the five yard line last year.
23:55I mean, it's on Tampa Bay as a team had for the running backs had 17 of them.
24:00Nine for Sean Tucker, eight for Rashad White. So if you're wondering why Irving only had four touchdowns last season, and Sean
24:06Tucker, by the way, had eight easily in that group.
24:08Rashad White at four. That's why he didn't get the goal line work.
24:12And I'm worried. I am worried that he's not going to get it this year either.
24:16I don't, they weren't going to tender Tucker. And you're like, okay, interesting.
24:20Yep. Then they did. I think he's going to have a real role when they're inside the five yard line, not to
24:26mention game on passing situations and, and occasionally change of pace runs.
24:29I do still think they believe in Irving as a starter.
24:32And they showed that with their depth chart, right?
24:34I know it's unofficial and it's early on, but teams will often when it's like they bring in a guy like Gainwell
24:40in Jacksonville did this actually with Chris Rodriguez and tune it'll say Bucky Irving or Kenneth game.
24:45Well, they didn't do that. They said, Irving's our guy.
24:47He's our, he's early back on the depth chart.
24:50That means something a little bit to me enough to say, all right, he's going to start.
24:54He's going to be the main guy. But the problem is I think his ceiling is cap.
24:59The good news is it's kind of baked into his ADP.
25:02He's fallen in, in where he's going in drafts.
25:04The idea that you can get a seven round discount.
25:07I don't think that Bucky Irving at the end of the season, Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell fantasy points per game, put up next to each other.
25:14There's not a seven round difference between them. Give me Gainwell and that ADP every day of the week.
25:19No offense to Bucky Irving. Yeah. He's going out 12 team leagues across the industry, fifth round for Irving, ninth round for Gainwell.
25:25So that's still a pretty big gap. That's still a big gap.
25:28I think Gainwell's pretty cheap right now. I have him, I get ahead of quite a few guys going.
25:33I think I'm going to, I think he's going to be one of my teaser, not in this episode, but I think
25:39he'll be rising up my ranks a little bit more as we get closer to this.
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26:46Let's keep moving here. You could probably win a round of trivia with this question that I'm going to throw to you guys.
26:52Ooh. All right. Over the past three seasons, sorry, over the past two seasons, three running backs or three players have surpassed
26:58a thousand rushing yards and 35 receptions. So in both 2024 and 2025, three players had at least a thousand rushing yards and 35 catches.
27:05Can you guess those three players? Christian McCaffrey. Nope.
27:07He was hurt. Oh, he was hurt two years ago.
27:10Not Derek Henry. Cause he doesn't get the catches.
27:12John Taylor. No. Jim here gives us one. Oh, Gibson.
27:15Robinson. John Robinson is the other. The other one I know.
27:18Cause I know we're going to talk about, so I'm cheating here.
27:21So I'm going to let, I'll let you, I know who it is.
27:25I don't know who it is. Rico Dowdle. What?
27:27And that's random right there. One of these things is not like the other.
27:31That would be a good way of playing. Rico Dowdle is a really, really solid runner, like pure runner of the football.
27:37He joins a Pittsburgh backfield that we thought last year.
27:39I know he was one of your guys last preseason.
27:42Mike Jalen Warren was set up for, he was in a really good spot, right?
27:46He had less competition. It was going to be Jalen Warren and then Kenny G, Kenny Gamewell.
27:50Um, and Warren, especially early in the season was pretty good.
27:53He kind of eventually faded into a less useful role, but it was a very good value relative to where he was being taken last year.
28:00I would have thought at the beginning of the season or the beginning of the summer, like, yeah, you know, Jalen Warren,
28:06he did enough last year to kind of earn it.
28:09He's got a contract. I kind of think this might be the Rico Dowdle show when things get rolling out of the
28:15gates at the beginning of the year. I think a little bit of this is who's the head coach and how does
28:21it sort of align with how he wants to play offense?
28:24Who was Rico Dowdle's head coach two years ago?
28:26Mike McCarthy, the Steelers new head coach. He was there in Dallas when Rico surpassed a thousand rushing yards and 35 catches in 2024.
28:32So I lean towards Rico Dowdle. I just think there are legitimate mitigating factors for both of these players.
28:37I don't know how involved in the passing game Rico Dowdle is going to be because they may say, all right, let's
28:43bring Jalen Warren back to what he was prior to last year, which was the change of pace receiving guy.
28:49And then on the other side of that, like, of course I don't expect Jalen Warren to see as much rushing volume as he saw last year.
28:56So leaning slightly towards Dowdle kind of has a Patriots feel to me is like, they're pretty closely ranked, but I do prefer Rico Dowdle over Jalen Warren.
29:03I would also say that I prefer Rico Dowdle.
29:06And a little bit of this is just like the narrative street.
29:09Mike, you were, I know trying to pump the Jalen Warren train a little bit last year when I felt like he had a really good reason.
29:16He had 1200 yards and eight, nine touchdowns. Like he was good.
29:19But Kenny Gainwell didn't go away in that offense.
29:22It wasn't like he took it and was like, this is my backfield.
29:25And then Kenny Gainwell leaves that, that team and they bring in not a non-consequential running back.
29:30That's the thing. If they didn't bring someone in of Rico Dowdle stature, I would feel like, okay, maybe this is more of the Jalen Warren show.
29:37Rico Dowdle is a real running back. Yeah. So because of that and the way that they utilize it, if he goes
29:43back to that third down role that you're talking about, Rico Dowdle plays the Jalen Warren role last year.
29:48Yep. And now Jalen Warren is playing that Kenny Gainwell role, which is the third down back.
29:52There's a reason why Jalen Warren wasn't playing that, that role and how there's a reason why Aaron Rogers loved Kenny Gainwell in that situation.
29:59So I don't love it as much as him just necessarily replacing Kenny Gainwell as the pass catcher there.
30:04I'm more in on Rico Dowdle as well field.
30:07I'm curious, Mike, which side you're on. Yeah. I think I've been back to back in my rankings, but both outside the top 25.
30:13And there's a very clear reason for that. And guys on that note, it's time for the first one of the season.
30:19Check this out. Yes. Check this out. Check this out.
30:22Check this out. Check this out. Check this out.
30:24It's time to check this out. Check this out.
30:26Before you start. Oh, that was amazing. You look more jacked now than you did.
30:30Oh yeah. Is that right? Yeah, I did. You know, I've been working a little more this year than I was last year.
30:37You baby. Yeah. Slacking a little bit with the last few weeks.
30:40Cause we've been swamped, but we're going to get back to it in the coming days, but guys, it's ready to check.
30:46Are you ready to check this out? Yes, I'm ready for this.
30:49I want to check it out. We're going to talk about Mike McCarthy and his treatment of running backs because it is not good.
30:55I look back at where his running back rooms as a whole.
30:58So we're comparing the 32 running back rooms across the NFL in McCarthy's last eight seasons as a head coach.
31:04We're going to start with 2012, go all the way through 2024 when he was last head coach.
31:09Here's where they finished in fantasy points. 28th, 13th, 17th, 32nd, 32nd, 31st, 16th, and 29th.
31:13I heard a 13th and 17th. 13th is a long time.
31:16I was almost a decade ago. 13, 16, and there was a 13 and a 17 and a 16, but a lot of 32.
31:22Yes. A lot. Okay. So that's fantasy points. How about target shares?
31:25Yeah. It's running back target shares during the span is even worse.
31:29This one's, this one's concerning. 30th, 28th, 25th, 32nd, 32nd, 33rd, 20th and 28th.
31:32And you might be wondering, how is it 33rd?
31:35Because sometimes coaches will be fired during the season.
31:37So multiple coaches will fit in the sample. Usually like a sample, like 35 or so in a season.
31:42So he actually finished lower than 32nd one year in target share.
31:45That's a pattern. You know, sometimes you're like, that might just be kind of fluky.
31:49That's a very real pattern. No question. Yeah. No question.
31:52Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No question. I think he said, I have a question.
31:56So that's my concern. I think that the target shares are going to drop for that backfield.
32:00Like last year was the Arthur Smith office. Yep.
32:03Now it's a Mike McCarthy office, which changes things.
32:05And also they added Michael Pittman. Who's going to soak up more targets as well.
32:09I'm very, really, I'm very concerned about the ceiling and honestly, week to week output of these guys.
32:14If it was one guy, I'd feel better, but they're going to share it between the two.
32:19And so I'm not really feeling either. I have taken, I've taken some shots on Rico daddle just because to your point, he's cheaper than Jalen Warren.
32:26He's going like a round or two later. And I think he very well could hold a nice lead and carries and
32:32get enough rushing touchdowns to hang in the flex conversation, but that's about it.
32:35Yeah. For those reasons, I'm out. Right. I mean, this feels like the RB dead zone that we've been discussing.
32:41no doubt. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And, and again, you, you say this a lot.
32:45So I want to reiterate it. Sometimes it depends on your team, right?
32:48If you're RB two, that you took is a little risky.
32:51Maybe you're like, all right, I'm going to take a shot on Jacobs or Brace hall.
32:55Cause they fell a little bit, but I might need someone the first few weeks of the season.
33:00Doubtle becomes a little more palatable as a guy that could be your RB three or four depends, depending on your structure.
33:06So there's a place for these guys, but it's not like I'm building my championship team around them.
33:11Starting every week. That's not, that's not these guys.
33:13When I'm doing my RB two build, where I talk about how much I love Jadari and price, trying to get him there.
33:19Usually I will try to grab a second running back in that vicinity of either Basial tootin or Rico doubtle, just to
33:25give me like another starting level ish type running back for that kind of depth that you're talking about.
33:30Lonely feeling when you need a running back, especially early in the season, you're like it's week three and the options are already dire.
33:37And it's this bad. Yes. 14 more weeks. This.
33:39Last one, Mike, we stay in the NFC South where we have been throughout the show previously.
33:44And what's up with that? What's up with the NFC South?
33:46A lot of backfields here, Yeah. Oh yeah. There's, there's a lot of problems here and we're picking out great backfields because
33:52all these guys are like back to back in my rankings.
33:55And this is another one of those cases. Cause I had Jonathan Brooks at 32 and Juba Hubbard down to 33.
34:01Actually. Oh, keep in mind Hubbard dealing with a hamstring right now.
34:04And he's questionable for week one. And there's already been so much Brooks hype that I thought he might outscore him anyway.
34:10And now with the injury, it looks like he might start week one.
34:13Yeah. Look at spinner rough go for Jonathan Brooks missed a big chunk of his rookie season recovering from a torn ACL
34:19suffered while at Texas finally got on the field for three games, had a handful of touches tears and ACL again, misses
34:25the entire and the entirety of last season. So we haven't seen much, but the guy is still only 23 years old.
34:31He came into the league, very young, former second round pick.
34:34And he, when he came into the league, it was a very weak running back class, but he was the highlight that year.
34:40It was, and was viewed as a guy that can run it well and be effective as a pass catcher as well.
34:46So again, he was drafted to be the future lead back of this team.
34:50I think he gets an opportunity to take control this year.
34:53As for Chuba Hubbard, I really slipped last year.
34:55I'll turn to my friends here at PFF 64th among 65 qualified backs and force miss tackle rate and elusive rating last year was Hubbard.
35:02I know he wasn't fully healthy at times, but he kind of was slipping early on.
35:06And that allowed Rico daddle to take control. Also Hubbard, one career top 30 fantasy campaign.
35:10One that was 14th back in 2024. He had back-to-back good years, but only one was a really, really a fantasy relevant season.
35:16So as far as I'm concerned, if I'm considering these guys, Hubbard is a guy that maybe can flirt with RB two numbers.
35:23If he's the lead back, but Brooks is the guy that could break out.
35:26The ceiling's much higher. And when I'm talking about rounds seven and eight, where they're going, I'm not drafting a starter.
35:32Usually I'm going for a guy that could be a league winner.
35:35I don't think Hubbard's a league winner at age 27.
35:38After last year, I think Brooks potentially could be a league.
35:41So I think what you just said was really important at the end.
35:44Cause I want to make something clear. Like I am Chuba Hubbard over Jonathan Brooks by a decent gap, but Chuba Hubbard
35:50is also not a target for me. Yeah. I want players that like, I don't think the reason why I win my championship is.
35:57Yeah. It's Ramondre Stevenson. It's because I had Chuba Hubbard.
35:59Or Chuba Hubbard is the guy that I either have a small injury to one of my starters, or I just get a gnarly run of bi-weeks.
36:06And it's like, he filled in and he got me 11, 13 points and whatever.
36:10It was serviceable. It didn't win me my week.
36:13Didn't lose me my week. I, I'm simply not as convinced as it sounds like I know you are.
36:18And I think you are as well. I think the Panthers are going to be incredibly judicious with Jonathan Brooks.
36:23Back-to-back years of major knee injuries. Like they're playing the long game here.
36:27I know he only has two more years left on his rookie contract, but I think they're looking out.
36:32I think they just have no choice, but to look out for the guy here.
36:36And don't forget, they do have a serviceable third running back on their roster in Trevor H.
36:40And Ray Chan. So I wouldn't surprise me if H.
36:43And plays a little bit of a role at the beginning of the season.
36:47If Hubbard is unavailable. So I just, I think there's going to be more highlight plays from Jonathan Brooks.
36:52I wouldn't be surprised if he has the first explosive run of the season for them.
36:56I also don't absent like Chuba Hubbard and the wheels falling off in this team, soaring to the top of the division
37:02and Jonathan Brooks, just giving them real playoff equity.
37:04I think this team is going to be really smart about Jonathan Brooks.
37:08I think this is going to be a year of easing him in.
37:11It sounds like you're saying, I'm saying I'll take a shot on Brooks.
37:15His ADP is on the rise. It's making it tougher to invest in him.
37:19That's my, but it sounds like it's an avoid for you because again, if Hubbard's not is maybe questionable or doubtful for
37:24week one, why even bother at this point? We say avoid as you mentioned where the avoid a cost.
37:30And you mentioned where the industry ADP is at ESPN right now, Chuba Hubbard coming off the board in the 12th round.
37:35Yeah. Jonathan Brooks coming off the board in the 13th round.
37:38Yeah. So that's both of them. Those are super cheap.
37:41That has come together. That has come together quite a bit.
37:44I think that number will get a lot higher for Jonathan Brooks.
37:47It'll get higher for Chuba as well. I agree.
37:50I know Mike has been really resourceful with giving us across the industry ADP.
37:53It's still very, we have 21 days till kickoff.
37:56Yep. Over the next, I'll call it 20 days.
37:58You will see those numbers dramatically adjust on ESPN.
38:00I love this by the way. I love you giving industry ADP because I play on a number of, I don't just play on one site.
38:07Like we all play on a bunch of different platforms.
38:10It's really valuable. Speak for yourself. It's very valuable just to know what the industry is at because a lot of people
38:16listen to us, even if they don't play on ESPN.
38:19Yeah. No doubt. Not to mention like our friends at draft Kings, like I have their, I have the best ball ADP, which is constantly changing.
38:26As you know, if you're in there doing best ball drafts, which I'm doing right now, it's evolving all the time.
38:31Guys are moving up and down. And right now, if you go in there and you're looking at running backs, Brooks is
38:37listed ahead of Hubbard and ADP, like he's going ahead of him.
38:40So all of this is, is a useful to me.
38:43All right. Let's take a couple of questions here from our chat.
38:46Before we move on, we got a bunch of them here.
38:49A lot of questions on this backfield specifically. We did not talk about it today, guys.
38:53This question come from aller 15 J aller one SJ.
38:56I can't tell what the number is, but it's Al wants to know Woody marks or David Montgomery.
39:01Yeah. Montgomery for me at cost. At cost. Cost.
39:03Can you even the cost right now? Yes, I can.
39:06Cost is David Montgomery. He's up to the fourth round right now.
39:09Eighth round in ESPN leagues. Fourth round for him.
39:12Uh, and then, um, let's see. Woody marks. Woody marks is 12th round ESPN.
39:15I mean, it's, it's like when you, when it's that wide, it's hard to make the case for somebody from the fourth to the 12th round.
39:22Um, fourth to 12th. You said fourth and 12th.
39:25Yeah. Eighth to free. I still think, I think in that case it's, it is David Montgomery at the end of the
39:30year, David Montgomery will still have more fantasy points.
39:33I think he's still going to be the, the guy that they want to lean on.
39:37I mean, he's 29 year old, 29 years old coming off, uh, a career low is pretty much across the board.
39:43Um, and he's not going to have a lot of work in the passing game.
39:47There was a good reason why he had career lows across the board.
39:50Offensive line was tough. And he had this kid that was pretty good behind him.
39:54I don't think if they wanted Woody marks to be the guy, I would love to know if you feel differently.
40:00Yeah. If they thought Woody marks was going to be the guy after their rookie season, I don't think they would have
40:06brought in and paid a guy like David Montgomery, what they did.
40:09Well, I mean, maybe Montgomery can rush the passer.
40:11Cause there's a lot of pass rushers in Houston.
40:14Yeah. Oh yeah, that's true. Uh, I agree to you to an extent that Woody marks probably wasn't viewed as like, this is our feature back.
40:21And they didn't have another feature back. Joe Mixon didn't work out.
40:24My hesitation with being low on Montgomery is that like Joe Mixon two years ago, like he was later in his career
40:30and they just gave him the rock 20 plus times a game.
40:33Yeah. And he was good in fantasy. Um, I don't know if Montgomery is going to make it through the whole season.
40:39And again, he's 29. If he slips a little bit, this might be more of a committee.
40:43And, and by the way, the main issue I have here is fourth round.
40:47That's crazy. It's crazy. That's too much. With all these other guys, I guess getting hurt, he's kind of working up, but
40:53there's a lot of hype out there. I've seen it across the industry.
40:57People are, he's polarizing, but a lot of people like him and it's just too expensive for me.
41:01I think people who watch the show or listen to the show and have done so for quite some time, know that
41:07like we do not shy away from our whiffs here.
41:10We've got plenty of them. Like I could put together a whole wall of things that I wish I didn't say at the time.
41:16Um, so there's going to be a guy that there's a chance that at least one of the running backs that we
41:22have talked about today, who's in the older unsexy category has a really good fantasy.
41:26Absolutely. I think what we're trying to make the point though is, is that like these older guys who have real holes
41:32in their fantasy resume or outlook for this upcoming year on average are not league winners, right?
41:37So between Monty and Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle and Ramondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, you could throw him into the mix.
41:42Like, is it possible? One of these late twenties guys is useful wire to wire this year.
41:47Of course it's possible, but on average, these are not the kind of players that tilt the balance of a fantasy football
41:53league, which is why they're not usually targets for us.
41:55Yeah. And sometimes you need innings eaters on your lineup.
41:58Usually you don't want to necessarily draft them, but you're going to need them throughout the season to kind of just fill
42:04in and get you eight to 11 points. That might be enough to win you your game.
42:08On average, you're going to, your average score, like your week to week winning margin is going to be less than that.
42:14So like, you need these guys to just kind of fill in.
42:17You don't want to take a three because you started a guy who just played 10 snaps.
42:22You want a guy that could be like a Pollard or Dowdle, whatever it might be.
42:26Um, that could kind of, again, to use another baseball reference this year, cause I'm the baseball guy.
42:31You are the baseball guy. I need some innings for you in your lineup.
42:35All right. Next question here from our chat. This one comes from Joey G.
42:39We love this guy. Producer first draft. Good morning, masculine men.
42:41Is it me or does having the number three pick feel like the toughest decision in the draft?
42:46Assuming that Bijon and Gibbs go one, two, I'm losing sleep over chase or CMC.
42:50Please help. It's a great man right here. It is a great man.
42:54One of the greatest love Joe. Love that man with my whole heart.
42:57Excellent producer and a huge fantasy junkie. Um, thanks for checking out today, Joe is he always does.
43:02He watches every day. Um, I actually would say Joe that I am feeling less pressure right now at three and more
43:08pressure at wherever at six for this reason. The Puka factor until we have clarity on that, that makes things a little bit tougher for me.
43:15If it's one game for Puka Nakua, I still think he is going to be a top six pick.
43:20If it's four games for Puka, I mean, we don't know if it's any number of games, but if it's four, that conversation becomes very different.
43:27I agree with you. I'm Joe, you know, this I'm good with, with CMC and, but more indications yesterday from Shefty that
43:33it's not serious for CMC and that he could be available right away.
43:36If this was a game week, Kyle Shanahan seemed to indicate as much as well yesterday.
43:41I'm so good with CMC at number three, not saying that Jamar Chase is indefensible, but given what we're talking about, how
43:46quickly these running backs enter dead zone territories, all things being equal, I'm taking a running back early.
43:51Yeah. What's tricky about this is sometimes we talk about starting a run.
43:55You know, you don't want to necessarily do that because it puts you a little bit of a disadvantage.
44:00You want to finish the run. So I hear what Joe's saying, because it's kind of like you're starting a run at three, right?
44:06You know, the first two picks are going to be, and then you're just like, I might as well be at seven.
44:12Let someone else start this run. And then I'll get the last of this tier.
44:16And then I'll come back around earlier and get another good player.
44:19Because as far as I'm concerned, you can't really mess this up.
44:22Like you, you mentioned Nakua, Chase, JSN, CMC, Jonathan Taylor.
44:25I feel like any of them, I feel great about.
44:28You could almost include a Monro, St. Brown, maybe CD lamp, but like really that top seven, I feel like if I
44:34get any of them, I feel fine. So that's the only thing that I have a problem with at three is that
44:40like, you have to start that run as opposed to finishing it might put you at a little bit of a disadvantage, but pick your, pick your route.
44:47They're all so close. By the way, top 25 players.
44:50My rankings coming out tomorrow, which I'm sure they'll be relatively close.
44:53You guys can go on the pod. Yes. We're going to do our top 25 players for fantasy this season.
44:58What is worth? I would do Jamar chase. And that's not a question.
45:02It's not surprising. That's not surprising. it's why I have a three.
45:05I know that Adam hasn't said, we're not concerned.
45:07Didn't we also say two years ago, we weren't concerned about Christian McCaffrey.
45:11Like, we just don't know what we don't know.
45:13I'm not saying that Adam does is wrong. To field's point though, we don't know.
45:17Last year too, right? Last year it was, Oh my God, he's hurt again.
45:21And then he was the best player in fantasy football.
45:24Yeah. So that's the great part about fantasy. It's your squad, my friends.
45:27All right, let's do one more question. We'll do one more question here.
45:31Maybe. No, no more questions. Let's move on. We're going to do risers and fallers.
45:35Yeah. I'll be quick on mine here. I'll start with my father or riser.
45:38I want to say this. I just, you can start with whichever one you want.
45:42These are not risers and fallers based on ADP.
45:45These are risers and fallers based on our rankings.
45:47These are risers and fallers for field, Mike and Daniel.
45:50All right. So I want to start with my, my father.
45:53And this was a player that you guys know how bullish I've been on him.
45:57I'm just, and I said this yesterday, I'm getting more nervous about a Mecca, a book.
46:01Yep. In general, toe injuries scare me for a wide receiver.
46:04They're pushing off all the time at the top of routes.
46:07That's scary that you're dealing with one. And Todd Bowles, who I wouldn't say is like Mr.
46:11Transparency when it comes to injuries has already put a little bit of uncertainty surrounding him being available for week one.
46:17So between the possibility of a Mecca, Buka not being ready at the beginning of the season and dealing with this, he
46:23has slipped from wide receiver 11 to wide receiver 13.
46:26Remember for all the highs last year, and there were four games with 20 plus fantasy points.
46:30He also had 10 games under 45 receiving yards and low efficiency.
46:33So there was some risk already baked into a Mecca, Buka.
46:36Now there's an injury. Yeah. I hear you. And 49% catch rate really bothers me with him.
46:41That's why I'm in general, a little bit lower than you.
46:44I'm hoping that connection with Baker Mayfield is a little better.
46:47Who, by the way, Baker Mayfield yesterday, did you see his quote?
46:50Yeah. Everyone's projecting us for a losing record and we're going to surprise people.
46:54I'm like, are people projecting them for a losing record?
46:56Like I have them winning the division since like February.
46:59Like, I don't like, I think they're, they have the best team for sure.
47:03These athletes find their motivation. look, I'm like, Hey, go for it.
47:06I hope he bounces back for sure. But yeah, I hear you.
47:09Mike, give me your biggest faller. My biggest faller fellas.
47:12This one is not a surprise. We mentioned it briefly earlier.
47:15Josh Jacobs, a lot of reasons to be concerned here.
47:17And it's too bad because early on last year, he was very good.
47:21His first nine games last year, over 21 touches, just a hair under 20 fantasy points per game.
47:26He had 11 touchdowns, but then he came back after he memory played 11 snaps across two games.
47:30He was kind of beat up and it really slipped a 14 and a half touches, 11.3 fantasy points per game.
47:36But he was still effective when he was healthy.
47:38He still has 30 touchdowns in 32 games with the Packers.
47:41So he's been a touchdown machine. Um, but you know, and he's, he's dealing with the groin injury.
47:46Looks like he should be back at practice soon.
47:49So we're not super concerned about that, but he is 28 years old.
47:52So, and a guy that's seen a ton of volume in the NFL.
47:56So you worry about that slipping. And then of course, the potential suspension is looming much like Nakua.
48:00We're waiting for an answer on that. Will he face league, uh, discipline?
48:04If he does, that's going to hurt him. But, um, I moved him down to my rankings.
48:08He is going in the third, fourth round of 12 team league.
48:12So that is kind of baked in. That's the good news.
48:15This is a guy, that if everything was good, everything was fine.
48:18We had no concerns. We might be talking about him at the one, two turn.
48:22Like he, he has that, he's that caliber of player and fantasy performer.
48:25So, um, I, but I have moved him down to the bottom of that six through, uh, 15 tier at running back.
48:31And as I pointed out earlier, I skipped them last night in a draft in the fourth round.
48:36And I took Travis H and so, uh, definitely some concerns there with Jacob.
48:40If assuming if he's healthy and not suspended in week one, he will be ranked quite a bit higher than RB 15 for you.
48:46I think what you just said at the end of that, who is your father, Daniel?
48:50I actually brought two to the table. Cause the one that is my actual biggest faller, isn't that exciting, but it is Josh downs.
48:57Unfortunately, injury history, missing time. Preseason. Mike's been talking me more into Alec Pierce than I originally was.
49:02Cause I have been listening to some of the things that you've been saying.
49:05Um, Ken and Alan now joining that squad as well.
49:08I went from being wide receiver 45 to basically unranked on Josh downs.
49:11So that's the biggest technical faller. But for me, the player that I'm bringing to the table is Puka Nakua.
49:17You guys already sort of had the conversations that I was going to have as a part of this, but there will
49:23be weeks where I know for a fact, I am sitting in this chair saying Puka Nakua wide receiver one again, the
49:29third time this year, the best wide receiver in fantasy football.
49:31I also know that there is a chance I'm sitting in this chair saying Puka Nakua has been suspended for an undetermined amount of games.
49:38I do believe at that same point, I could sit here and say Jamar chase another week as wide receiver one JSN.
49:44Another week is wide receiver one. I'm on Ross St.
49:47Brown. Another week is wide receiver one, even Justin Jefferson.
49:49Another week, fourth straight week is wide receiver one for Justin Jefferson.
49:53That wouldn't be crazy. But I think the chance of me saying any of those four guys are going to miss time
49:58because they have been suspended by the NFL. That is much, much less likely to happen to me in this seat.
50:04So I think because of that, I Puka has, even though he's only moved down three spots emotionally with the way that
50:10I'm drafting, he's just moved down such a bigger amount.
50:13Okay. Also, because if he comes back, the amount of grace that the NFL will show, if something happens to any of
50:18those other wide receivers, they have a longer line to be able to have a little bit with like Puka is not, Puka is, he's had his chances.
50:26So for me, because of that, even though he's only moved down from wide receiver one to wide receiver four, him and
50:32Justin Jefferson, that's a big jump for me. Yeah.
50:34That's a big leap. So I get your, your Daniel strategy this year is just like, you hate league winners.
50:40Risk averse. Out on, out on league winners. Yeah.
50:42You hate CMC. You hate Nakua. Guys who, even if they miss some time are still week to week going to be absolute game changer.
50:49So do you hate Josh Allen this year too?
50:51You said that to me last year about Sigmund Barkley and he finishes RB12.
50:55You hated Josh Allen too. You're a known Josh Allen.
50:57Nate. So let's talk about some guys that are risers.
51:00This one's a more fun conversation. Yeah. Who are guys that we're excited about that have been rising up our ranks?
51:06I was a little, I was a little skeptical on Jeremiah Love coming out of the gates.
51:10There was some scar tissue with the Ashton Gentry experience.
51:13Definitely. And despite the fact he's got a high ankle sprain.
51:16Yep. It's actually a small riser for me from RB14 to RB11.
51:19All right. And I'll be honest with you. Progress.
51:22We are making some progress. You're my big fan.
51:24Made me the hater now. Why'd you do that?
51:26Whatever. Too bad. You know what? This is a very, this is an oversimplified way of looking at Jeremiah Love.
51:32But I realized that so much of this, this scar tissue from Ashton Gentry last year was real.
51:36I think Ashton Gentry was playing with like legitimately bottom five in terms of innovation, offensive staff and support system around him.
51:42I don't think Mike LaFleur is the second coming of Sean McVay, but I think he's much more creative and crafty.
51:48Do you guys recall Ashton Gentry's preseason last year?
51:50No. Three carries for negative one yards in his first game.
51:53His last game, he had two carries for five yards.
51:56All right. So I get it. That's a small sample size.
51:59Not good. Right. But like, remember that first game we were all sitting there.
52:03We're like, Holy crap. Like there was just nowhere to run for Ashton Gentry.
52:06It was a problem from the jump. Jeremiah Love.
52:0912 carries 58 yards. Now maybe he shouldn't have been playing as much as he did in the first preseason game, but
52:15still I think there's just ways in which this scheme will be friendlier to Jeremiah Love.
52:19And I think he's a more talented player than Ashton Gentry.
52:22So he has risen up to running back 11 for me.
52:25Yeah. This is a guy. And look, I've talked about him a lot.
52:28This is a guy I expect over the next five to eight years.
52:32To be one of those guys. Every year we rank in the top five.
52:35He's just going to be the next superstar running back in the NFL, like, you know, Gibbs and Robinson and those guys.
52:41So if I can get that guy in the third or fourth round, I mean, sign me up.
52:46I'm going to, I'm going to do it. Like I, you want to be drafting guys, not at their ceiling.
52:52And I feel like in that area of the draft, you're, you're sort of doing that with a lot of, a lot
52:57of guys like love's not the case. So he has RB one upside top five upside at running back.
53:02I mean, he, he next year, I expect to be drafting him in the first round.
53:07So even if he gets off to a slow start, no problem.
53:10I don't care if the first couple of weeks are off to a slow start.
53:14If this guy is a guy we're ranking top five every week after that point, I'm more than happy to, to make that investment.
53:20You say that, but the emotional feeling of people that watched this happen with Ashton Gentile.
53:25I know you don't care, but that's just not how fantasy football is played.
53:28People have feelings about fantasy. I'm not going to say the stat again, but okay.
53:32There'll be the 10th. Top 12. There'll be a top 12, 10th in a row.
53:36Mike's new show is called facts versus facts. That's right.
53:39Yes, exactly. Yeah. All right, Mike, who's your, uh, your risers?
53:42Uh, my risers are a couple of tight ends who I, I started very low in the rankings due to injury concerns.
53:48I didn't think they'd be ready for week one, frankly, throughout most of the off season, but now it looks like they're
53:54going to play in week one or at the latest week to Tucker craft and George Kittle.
53:58I've been eight and nine. Now I have been low on craft all off season.
54:02I probably still won't start him because I still won't draft him very often because he's still a little bit too expensive,
54:08but, um, he's just been extremely touchdown dependent. Now he did start to see the targets before he got hurt last year.
54:14He had 10 targets and back-to-back games. That was kind of new for him.
54:18He was second among tight ends and fantasy points, but he had six touchdowns with two end zone targets.
54:23His expected total was 1.8. He was way over his head.
54:26Very similar the year before. Uh, very good. But after the, after the catch, I wonder if he's going to have that
54:32in his tank this year off the injury. So with still with the injury concerns, I'm still a little hesitant on him,
54:38but he's moved up my rankings and same thing, uh, with George Kittle.
54:41He's on the fence for week one, probably going to be a slow start, but again, this guy's going in the ninth round right now.
54:48We've talked about this. Um, after the Achilles tear last year, we thought he might miss half this season.
54:53He might play again, weeks one or two. And if it, even if he has to ramp up for a few weeks,
54:59we will probably be ranking him top five, top three.
55:01Once he's a full go in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
55:05Do you guys know he has finished sixth or better in fantasy points per game?
55:09Eight consecutive seasons. By the way, Kittle is tied for second last year.
55:13Yeah. From came back first the year before he had a hamstring strain after, like I can see a week two came
55:18back in week seven, take out week seven. Cause it was his first game back from weeks eight through week 17.
55:24He averaged 19.2 fantasy points. Yeah. And remember the year before kind of broke out and Brock, Brock Bowers had his big rookie year.
55:30George Kittle had a higher fantasy points per game than those guys that year.
55:34I mean, he is still an unreal player. So sure.
55:37Also those guys moving up more, more draftable, more palatable.
55:40Honestly, where they're going. I'd be fine with drafting both of them in drafts back to back in the ninth and 10th round.
55:46I think I'd want one and a safe and then a safer one because craft's a little more expensive.
55:51Don't be able to go home, Mike. I'm more on my side there.
55:54I go like, I, I take a, a Dallas Goddard or Jake Ferguson along with one of the craft is a little
56:00further down in ADP in our draft room because we've had him buried because we have been worried about the injuries.
56:06That's not the case across the industry where he's been going.
56:09He's basically, basically tight end five. You have, Oh, pride Bowers, Loveland, Warren, top five rounds in round six is fanning and craft.
56:15So he's a little more expensive, Pits is cheaper.
56:17Laporte is cheaper. Guys like that. All right. My riser is Blake Corum.
56:21My friends. Whoa. Shout out to my girl. Not have guessed Liz Loza as well.
56:25We got a facts versus feelings coming out tomorrow, but he was much more involved in the offense last season.
56:30Big leap last year in the usage that he had.
56:33There's a really great stat from Liz. All six of Blake Corum's touchdowns were from weeks nine to 18 last season.
56:38Interestingly enough, Kyron Williams only had two games with more than 15 touches over that span.
56:43We just saw Blake Corum come on a lot in the second half of the season.
56:47It felt like it was more of a committee.
56:49It wasn't just Kyron Williams is the RB one.
56:52And Blake Corum is just buried in the depth chart.
56:54They were both being utilized down the stretch. And then this off season, John McVay literally said, quote, he's going to be
57:00a big factor and what we're going to do this year.
57:03You know how good he can be the touchdown equity that he can have.
57:07And if nothing else as an insurance back, if there was only one running back in this offense, in this Rams offense
57:13that could potentially score more points than any other offense in the NFL this season, you would say that running back would
57:19be an easy top 15, top 12 guy. Just given what the offense would be.
57:23I have moved Blake Corum up to my RB 30 because where he is at right now, RB 40, RB 40.
57:28The gap between Kyron Williams at RB 18 and Blake Corum at RB 40 is drastically too large.
57:33Okay. Hard to disagree on this. I was going to say like, I know I actually don't mind him slotting in around RB 30.
57:39I think the problem I have here is not whether he's a riser.
57:43It's just like, are you really using Blake Corum?
57:45If Kyron Williams is healthy? No, that's my, that was my point.
57:49He has no standalone value as far as I'm concerned.
57:51You don't think so? Yeah. No. Yeah. I don't think you're starting.
57:54I mean, you have him at 30, so you're already not starting him.
57:58So I don't know why he's a riser per se.
58:01I just think he needs a Kyron injury. He's not passing Kyron Williams.
58:04He even last year, he played 29% of the snaps and had 17 targets.
58:08Like he's, he's not going to be involved in the passing game.
58:11He's going to, I think he could split carries with Kyron Williams.
58:14No problem. I don't, I don't not worry about that.
58:17Sure. Just not enough passing game involvement. And there's just not there week to week to start him.
58:22I just think you're never going to put him in your flex or RB two.
58:26So that's, that's my problem. But to your point, outstay, maybe the best insurance running back.
58:30I'll give you that, but that's what the ninth round is for better than him as an insurance back.
58:35Nobody, nobody, right? Probably not. I can't. I mean, I don't think there's a better, unless it's like a committee, a clear committee situation, right?
58:42Like Kyle moon, non guy, maybe it may. Yeah, maybe he's, I think it's probably the offense is so good in Chicago and Los Angeles.
58:48It's not Brian Robinson. It's not like, there's not another guy.
58:51One of the new England backs. And that probably not.
58:54I mean, Mitchell field. Maybe. Yeah. Here's a good one.
58:57You love the offense. The Rams. It's not so good.
58:59Yes. It's clearly, I think it's Coram. Yeah. Do you really think there's going to be a 20 spot difference at the
59:05end of the season between Blake Coram and Kyron?
59:08Or do you look at last year? I hear you on the rise part.
59:11Like I get it. I probably like 18 to 38.
59:14I'm a 38 for Coram probably feels a little bit wider.
59:17It's more so like, I guess I interpreted my riser is like, it's going to, it changes the standalone value.
59:22I feel different about the standalone value for the player now than I did three weeks ago.
59:27You were both healthy last year. They both had a, what I think will be a similar deployment this year.
59:32Kyron Williams finished ninth. Blake Coram finished 40th. He was unusable.
59:35If Kyron Williams is on the field, I just think he's unusable.
59:38Is that for the entire season? Are you just looking at the second half when they, when like Sean McVay started to
59:44show that they wanted to use it? I don't think it's my, I don't think it's much different.
59:49I think that might be a little closer. And that's where I think we're different, which is fine because we're just viewing it differently.
59:55I think that what I saw in the second half of the season and with what Sean McVay has said, there will
60:01be a more deployment of Blake Coram. I'm not sure that means standalone, but it means that the gap is too far.
60:07I think I figured that. And by the way, really deeply apologize.
60:10We're going to probably have to punt on some of our draft advice.
60:14No, it's okay for, for another show soon. We will get to it.
60:17I promise. Oh yes. But I think I figured this out.
60:20If I may, please. Mike says, Christian McCaffrey will outscore Blake Coram this season.
60:24And he says, like, I'll take that. I guess.
60:26Fine. Okay. I'm trying to find good games for Blake Coram here.
60:30His last five games, all under 11 fantasy points.
60:32I mean, where he had a couple of 13, he had one big game of 26, but that was it.
60:37Everything was 14 or lower. I'm where are the good games here?
60:41I don't Mike. He had, he had, that's not how this works.
60:44He had five touchdowns in a four game stretch.
60:46And that was it. Then he disappeared. Sometimes there's some prognostication involved just because someone hasn't done something in the past doesn't
60:52mean it won't happen in the future. I have, I have Kyron Williams down a little bit.
60:57Cause I do think Coram gets more of the carries this year, but it's not enough to be fantasy relevant.
61:02I don't know why he's moving up your rankings.
61:04He's still a. Did you not listen to any of the words that I just said?
61:09Yeah. And you didn't make any compelling, you did not make a compelling argument.
61:12Okay. So you don't. Selected. Keep going. That's fair.
61:15Hey, that's, and this is why fantasy is so great because, because right now, none of us are wrong.
61:20Maybe after week one, I'll be wrong, but right now, none of us are wrong.
61:24We don't know anything more than the next person.
61:26We're just doing the best we can to come up with the best information we have possible.
61:31Thanks for hanging out with us today. By the way, are we going to punt?
61:35I think we should punt because I don't want to just give you short change.
61:39I don't want to speed through it. So like tomorrow, we're going to make, yeah, exactly.
61:43Why don't we make it a goal of ours that like at the end of the show, we're going to, we're going
61:49to agree on a certain number of minutes. Yes.
61:51That we want to dedicate to the end of tomorrow's show.
61:54How many do you want? Dynasty and salary gap.
61:57We'll talk about it post-show six or seven. Yeah.
61:59Okay. And we'll say, we'll put it on the rundown and we will work accordingly in the front.
62:04I'm like, unless 10 things happen and we're crazy crowded with news and we have to get to the top.
62:09Or Daniel says something ridiculous right at the end when we're trying to wrap things up.
62:13But can I ask what? So, but you have our pledge here.
62:17We're going to cover the draft strategy tomorrow. It's important to us.
62:20This guy over here. Is this guy? I have to point that way.
62:23Oh, all right. It's like we were looking in the mirror.
62:26Great audio ending. Guys, we love you. Thank you so much for hanging out with us.
62:31We'll be back tomorrow and we're going to dive into fields.
62:34Top 25 players as well as a bunch of draft strategy.
62:36And then we're going to New York City. Promise.
62:39And then we're going to New York City. Come hang out.
62:42We love you guys. Don't forget to love each other and be kind to yourself.
62:46You deserve it. We'll see you guys tomorrow. I'm not going to be kind to you.
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