0:00The easiest trick in fantasy football
0:01over the past few years has been
0:03identifying the worst offenses in the
0:05league with sports books and then
0:06avoiding those running backs and wide
0:08receivers in fantasy. We just talked
0:10about the wide receiver avoids, but I
0:11want to get to the running backs. And in
0:13this video last year, the running backs
0:15we decided to avoid based on the data
0:17were Ashton Jeanty, who was a round one
0:19pick. Obviously, you lost your league if
0:21you drafted him. Tony Pollard, Breece
0:23Hall, Tyron Tracy, Alvin Kamara, and
0:25Quinshon Judkins. There wasn't a single
0:28running back on that list that exceeded
0:30expectations greatly. Most of them were
0:32bust. And it's not just based on what
0:35happened last year why we're making the
0:38determination, "Oh, the offenses that
0:40sports books say are going to be
0:41garbage, they're probably going to be
0:43garbage and we should avoid those
0:44running backs." And going back over the
0:46past 22 years, cuz I've looked at the
0:49starting running back for the bottom
0:50five offenses in the NFL over the past
0:5322 years, that's 110 running backs. And
0:57out of that 110, only 43% of them were
1:00top 24 running backs in fantasy. Only
1:0317% of them managed to be a top 12
1:06running back in fantasy. And only 5% of
1:09them managed to be a top five running
1:11back in fantasy football. So, what this
1:13tells me is this tells me that running
1:16backs in garbage offenses, they could be
1:18top 24 guys with volume, but their
1:21upside to reach the top 12 mark, the top
1:24five mark, it's pretty damn unlikely.
1:27And again, this was exactly why we
1:29talked about Jeanty being an avoid last
1:31season. And I want to go through and
1:32look at the worst projections for
1:34offenses this year and talk about where
1:36we should take these running backs.
1:37Starting with Jeremiah Love. Now, it is
1:40tough for me to just say in a vacuum,
1:42"Oh, avoid Jeremiah Love or draft
1:45Jeremiah Love," right? Because
1:46everything comes down to the cost. If
1:49y'all been watching the live streams
1:50I've been doing nightly, I mean, I've
1:52been getting Jeremiah Love in the third
1:54round quite a bit. And in the third
1:56round, I'm going to be honest with you,
1:58I'm fine taking him, right? Because if
2:00we go back and look at recent history,
2:02the consensus cost for these top running
2:04backs in the NFL draft that go to bad
2:06teams, like Ashton Jeanty, like Bijan
2:09Robinson, they were round one fantasy
2:12football picks their rookie seasons,
2:14which obviously ended up being a massive
2:16massive mistake, and everybody should
2:18have known it based on the offenses they
2:20were stepping into. But, a round three
2:22pick is just wildly different than a top
2:2612, because when you take Jeremiah Love
2:28in the third round, if he turns out to
2:31just be a mid running back two like
2:33Ashton Jeanty was last season, that's
2:35not losing you your fantasy football
2:37draft, right? Cuz you're going to have
2:38two hammers ahead of him. Maybe you
2:40started off your draft with the
2:41combination of Bijan Robinson, Nico
2:44Collins, and then Jeremiah Love is your
2:46third pick. However, he's not a third
2:49round pick on every platform. That's the
2:50way in Yahoo drafts, in CBS drafts, and
2:53FFPC Underdog drafts at the moment. But,
2:56on some other platforms, like ESPN, in
3:00your ESPN draft, he's going at pick 12.
3:03And again, if you're taking somebody at
3:04the end of the first, the beginning of
3:05the second, the calculus is just
3:07completely different, where if that
3:09player isn't a top 10 guy at their
3:11position, you're probably tanked because
3:13you're relying on him to be that
3:15absolute hammer. So, I would avoid
3:16Jeremiah Love in your ESPN or even in
3:19your sleeper drafts if you have to take
3:20him in the second round. But, if you're
3:22drafting on Yahoo or maybe like an
3:24Underdog platform, and you can get him
3:26in the third, while the ceiling may be
3:28capped due to the Arizona Cardinals
3:29offense projecting to be the worst
3:30offense in the league, I'm okay at that
3:34cost. Now, let's move over to Breece
3:36Hall. And I'm going to be honest with
3:38you, I am not going to give Breece Hall
3:40the same benefit of doubt that I'm going
3:42to give to Jeremiah Love. Because at
3:44least with Jeremiah Love, we can paint
3:47ourselves a picture of oh, okay, what if
3:50the Arizona Cardinals and Love are like
3:532019 Saquon Barkley and the New York
3:55Giants? Where the Giants exceeded
3:57expectations to the upside, Saquon
3:59Barkley was a true generational level
4:02talent coming into the NFL, which is why
4:04he was a top three pick in his draft
4:06class, and obviously he smashed to be
4:08the running back one. If the Cardinals
4:10can exceed to the expectations, I think
4:12Jeremiah Love could be that Saquon
4:14Barkley level talent. I'm not going to
4:16give Breece Hall the same benefit of the
4:18doubt because we have seen Breece Hall
4:20at this point in his NFL career over a
4:22large sample. And what we have seen
4:24back-to-back seasons for Breece is him
4:26finishing as the running back 17 in
4:28points per game, and then this past
4:30season finishing as the RB 21 in points
4:32per game. The Jets project to score 18.7
4:35points per game according to the sports
4:37book data we posted on flockfantasy.com.
4:40So of course, we can see the Jets
4:41project to be just as bad as the Arizona
4:44Cardinals. However, we have that
4:45expanded sample where we have seen that
4:47if Breece Hall is in a garbage offense,
4:50we're getting running back two
4:51production. And I honestly think that
4:54that's a lot more projectable in my mind
4:57than what we are seeing with the wider
4:58range of outcomes of Jeremiah Love. So
5:01while Breece may have a higher floor, I
5:02think his ceiling's going to be a little
5:04capped. So if I had to choose the two
5:05running backs that are both going to be
5:07in garbage offenses, I would rather go
5:09with the unknown upside case that
5:10Jeremiah Love, the third overall pick in
5:12the NFL draft, is a true generational
5:14level talent than Breece Hall, who we
5:16know's a very good running back, but he
5:18hasn't proven to be able to overcome the
5:20dumpster fire that the New York Jets are
5:22and they have been for a very long time.
5:24Now, there are some platforms where I'm
5:26fine drafting Breece Hall, very similar
5:28to Jeremiah Love. Like Breece Hall is
5:30going at the end of the second round in
5:32ESPN drafts. I have no interest there.
5:34He's going at the end of the third, the
5:36beginning of the fourth of your Yahoo
5:38drafts though. And if you could take
5:40Breece Hall at the beginning of the
5:41fourth of your Yahoo draft there, if he
5:44turns out to be a running back two, it's
5:45a great pick and I think, honestly,
5:47there is some upside to exceed and
5:49return value even past that point. And
5:51then, Sleeper is where I would say he's
5:53probably appropriately priced, where
5:55he's going as a mid-third in Sleeper
5:57drafts, which again is close to where we
5:58have him ranked on flockfantasy.com.
6:01But, of course, if y'all aren't already,
6:02make sure you are making the adjustments
6:04to your exact league settings. Some of
6:06these running backs are going to be more
6:07valuable if you play in a league where
6:09you only start two wide receivers and
6:10one flex, as opposed to those leagues
6:12where you start three wide receivers and
6:14a flex. Now, of course, we make all the
6:15adjustments in our 2026 fantasy football
6:18draft sheets that are tailored to your
6:20exact draft platform, whether you're on
6:22ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper, CBS, and also
6:24tailored to your exact league settings,
6:26whether you play in a PPR, half PPR,
6:28non-PPR, you play in a 10-team, 12-team,
6:31you start two wide receivers, two
6:33flexes, two wide receivers, one flex,
6:34superflex, tight end premium, whatever
6:36you can think, we have over like 70
6:39custom draft sheets for you, and
6:41real-time draft assistants. It's all
6:43available with the 34
6:45flockfantasy.com season pass. And if you
6:48use code flock, you're going to get free
6:49questions that you're allowed to ask me
6:51in the live streams during the season.
6:53Links in the description, as well as the
6:55comment section. Now, let's move over to
6:57our next running back, and this is going
6:59to be Quintez Johnson. Now, I'm going to
7:00be honest, I have not drafted a lot of
7:02Quintez Johnson. Right now, he is going
7:05at pick 53 in Sleeper drafts, 57 in
7:08Yahoo drafts, and 40 in your ESPN
7:10league. So, looks like ESPN, all these
7:13running backs are pushed up a bit. You'd
7:14have to take him in the fourth, but
7:16other draft platforms, you're able to
7:17get him in the fifth. Couple different
7:18things that I want to note with Johnson.
7:20One, he would be more exciting for me in
7:22a non-PPR format. If it was a standard
7:25league, half PPR, there I'm more
7:27optimistic, because a big knock that we
7:29have with Johnson is, of course, he's
7:31not really going to catch the ball, or
7:32at least he didn't catch the ball last
7:34season. Last season, he played 51% of
7:36the snaps for the Cleveland Browns.
7:38However, he only averaged 1.9 receptions
7:40per game and 12.2
7:42receiving yards per game. The Cleveland
7:44Browns project to score 18.9 fantasy
7:47points per game, which is right there
7:48with the New York Jets, as well as the
7:50Arizona Cardinals. And based on them
7:52having one of the worst offensive lines
7:53in the NFL, and their quarterback room
7:55being some combination of Deshaun Watson
7:57and Skylar Thompson, I don't have a lot
7:58of hope that this team can exceed
8:00expectations to the upside. And with
8:03these garbage offenses, the main thing
8:06that I'm concerned is if you're going to
8:07be a running back that doesn't catch the
8:09ball. Like transitioning over to our
8:11next guy with Devon Achane, I'm going to
8:13be honest with you. Achane I have been
8:16drafting. And the reason for this is I
8:18feel like fantasy drafters have actually
8:21done an appropriate job pricing in the
8:24risk that we have with the Miami
8:25Dolphins offense. First thing that I
8:27want to point out will be the Miami
8:28Dolphins were already a bad offense last
8:31season. Last season the Dolphins
8:32averaged 20.4 points per game. This
8:35season they project to score 19.1
8:37according to sports books. That's about
8:39a drop of 1.3 points per game. So
8:42already the Miami Dolphins offense
8:44hasn't been great, or at least it wasn't
8:46last year. And what did that result in
8:48last season for Devon Achane? Oh, last
8:51season he averaged over 20 fantasy
8:53points per game. He was the RB5 in
8:55points per game. And now for three
8:57straight seasons he's been a top six
9:00running back. However, if we actually go
9:02through and we look at his current cost
9:05in Underdog Draft specifically, where
9:06I've taken a lot of him, he's being
9:08drafted as the running back 11. So being
9:11drafted as the RB11 when he has a
9:13historical finish rate as a top five guy
9:16pretty much every single time. And when
9:19we're worried about a lot of these
9:20running backs like Quinshon Judkins not
9:22being able to overcome their horrendous
9:24offensive environments, I think Devon
9:26Achane has at least a little more room
9:28to the upside because he can catch the
9:30ball. And at the same time we know that
9:32the Miami Dolphins have everything
9:35changing here. New coaching staff and
9:37new quarterback play. So, while yes,
9:39they project to be pretty bad, I don't
9:41think it's like a guarantee the way that
9:43the Cleveland Browns would be. I don't
9:45necessarily think it's a a quote unquote
9:47guarantee like the New York Jets will
9:49be, because who knows? Maybe Malik
9:51Willis is pretty damn good. Maybe we
9:54just have a Lamar Jackson Baltimore
9:56Ravens type scenario where the rushing
9:58quarterback elevates the overall rushing
10:00efficiency of the running backs in his
10:01backfield based on how linebackers and
10:04defensive coordinators have to scheme
10:05against that weapon. Now, again, still
10:07very much valid concerns with Devon
10:09Achane, because the Dolphins project to
10:11be a bottom four offense. However, I
10:13believe that is priced in if you're able
10:15to get him in the middle of the second,
10:17because if the Dolphins projected to be
10:18a good offense, I can make the argument
10:21that he'd be a top five pick in fantasy
10:22drafts. So, ton of red flags, however, I
10:25think in the middle of the second round,
10:27that already is priced in. Now, let's
10:29move over to our next guy, which is
10:30going to be Ashton Jeanty. Now, Ashton
10:33Jeanty is going from the league's worst
10:36offense to a borderline bottom five
10:40offensive unit. Like the Las Vegas
10:42Raiders averaged 14.2 points per game
10:45last season. This year, they're
10:47projected to score 19.2. That has them
10:50as the number one offense in the entire
10:53NFL when it comes to improvement year
10:55over year. It makes sense. New coaching
10:58staff, improved offensive line,
10:59dramatically better quarterback play at
11:02the same time, and now you have Jeanty
11:04going into his second season. If we are
11:06looking at the current cost of Ashton
11:08Jeanty, he is a first round pick in
11:11Yahoo drafts, he is a first round pick
11:13in Underdog drafts. However, in your
11:16ESPN drafts, he's currently going at
11:18pick 17. Now, for us on
11:20flockfantasy.com, we have him ranked
11:23there as a late round one, early round
11:25two pick. So, maybe if you're drafting
11:27in a platform where he's going to go as
11:29a top 10 guy, you look to avoid, but in
11:32the second round, very similar to Devon
11:34Achane, I do believe that he has upside
11:36if the offense is better than how it
11:38projects. But, when you're taking either
11:40one of these running backs, you need to
11:42understand that if the offensive
11:43environment collapses, we could see a
11:46very similar situation to what Achane
11:48Jente was in last season. But, almost no
11:50matter what, he should be better than
11:51his 14.4 points per game that he gave
11:54you as a rookie. Now, moving over to our
11:56next guy, we are going to have Tony
11:57Pollard. Pollard in a similar boat in
11:59this instance, where while yes, the
12:02Tennessee Titans project to be a
12:04borderline bottom-five offense,
12:07I think there's hope for this Titans
12:09offense. Because one thing I want to
12:10point out is there is a clear
12:12distinction in sports book projections
12:14right now between the bottom five teams
12:17and then teams six and seven. Because
12:19right now, the Raiders are the fifth
12:20worst team in projections at 19.2 points
12:23per game. That's a 0.7 points per game
12:26difference between the dead last team
12:27and the Arizona Cardinals. So, all those
12:29bottom five teams are very, very similar
12:31within about 0.7 points of each other.
12:33But, then you get a massive jump of 1.5
12:36points in projection from the fifth to
12:38the sixth. So, I want to make a
12:40distinction. The Tennessee Titans are
12:42supposed to be a better offense than any
12:44other offense that we've talked about so
12:45far today. And very similar to what we
12:47talked about with the Raiders, they're
12:48supposed to be one of the most improved
12:50offenses in the entire league year over
12:52year. Where if we go back and look at
12:54where the Titans were last season, they
12:56averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game,
12:59and this year they project to score
13:0120.7. Makes sense, new coaching staff,
13:05year two quarterback, investments into
13:06the offense with like Carnell Tate
13:08hopefully stretching defenses outwards.
13:10And with Pollard, his current cost has
13:13him as a high-end running back three
13:15when he's coming off the season with an
13:16RB 30 finish. So, I would say that I'm
13:19completely fine drafting him depending
13:21on your platform. Like, Yahoo drafts,
13:23he's going in the 80s. Sleeper, he's
13:25going in the 80s. Now, if you're using
13:27our ESPN draft sheets, you're probably
13:29not going to take him there because you
13:30would have to take him in the sixth
13:31round. But, as long as you're getting
13:33them rounds like seven or eight, I think
13:35Tony Pollard is a fine pick. But, again,
13:37you would be betting on the Tennessee
13:38Titans offense taking them. And then
13:40moving over to the Carolina Panthers,
13:43Chuba Hubbard has been one of the
13:45biggest fallers in drafts as of late.
13:47And this has represented a really strong
13:49buying opportunity, specifically in your
13:52ESPN drafts. Like Hubbard and Tony
13:55Pollard for me, based on their offensive
13:57outlooks, based on possibly Tajae
13:59Spears, Nicholas Singleton expanding
14:01their roles in Tennessee, and Jonathan
14:03Brooks expanding his role in Carolina, I
14:05think Hubbard, Tony Pollard are kind of
14:08two peas in the same pod. However, we
14:10are seeing Chuba Hubbard get drafted
14:13pick 99 in your ESPN drafts. And again,
14:16in comparison to Tony Pollard, who's
14:18going in the sixth round of your ESPN
14:20leagues. But, it's flipped also on
14:22Yahoo. Where Yahoo, Hubbard you'd have
14:24to take in the sixth. And again, you'd
14:26get that value with Pollard. So, just
14:27make sure you are taking into account
14:30where your league mates are expected to
14:31draft these guys based on the platform
14:33that you're on. But, I would say that he
14:35would be a very strong target in your
14:37ESPN drafts, especially if there we are
14:40wanting to avoid some of these other
14:41running backs, such as Tony Pollard, um
14:44Breece Hall, and also Jeremiah Love.
14:47But, all in all, you'll see me taking
14:49some of these running backs in the live
14:50streams. But, I do need to be getting a
14:52strong value on them. How I define a
14:54strong value is for Breece Hall, the end
14:56of the third round, beginning of the
14:58fourth round. Jeremiah Love, anywhere in
15:00the third round. Quinshon Judkins, the
15:03end of the fifth. Devon Achane, the
15:05middle of the second. Achane Gentry, the
15:07beginning of the second. And then Tony
15:09Pollard, Chuba Hubbard, I would need
15:11them to fall to the seventh or eighth
15:13rounds. And ultimately, if you want to
15:15hit big on these running backs, the
15:17offenses have to exceed to the upside
15:20dramatically. And you would need to feel
15:22comfortable making that bet. Of course,
15:24make sure you understand that your draft
15:26strategy should be different based on
15:27the platform you're on and your league
15:29settings that you play in as well. We
15:31have those customized draft sheets for
15:34you regardless of your platform or
15:36league format. We got you covered. Links
15:38in the description, comment section to
15:40flockfantasy.com. Use code flock, you're
15:42going to get free questions that you can
15:43ask me during the live streams in the
15:45year. And again, it's $34 for the entire
15:48season. You're not having to pay monthly
15:50or anything. But much love. I appreciate
15:52you and I really hope to see you in the
15:54live stream later tonight.
