0:00Let's start it off with the S tier, baby. And looking at Bejon verse Gibbs, it's going to come down to personal
0:05preference this season. Now, obviously, I'm making these rankings at the beginning of February because there are crazy people that are currently in
0:13drafts. There have already been over 50,000 real money fantasy teams drafted on Underdog Fantasy. And I'm having to put one of these guys ahead of the
0:22other. And as of now, I'm going to lean with Bejon over Jamir Gibbs. But again, I could 100% flip this when we actually
0:30get offensive projections for the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions from Sportsbooks in about 4 months. But if we go ahead and look at the
0:38historical comps that we have from Bejon's age 23 season, you actually had McCaffrey putting up a very similar year in 2019, Todd Gurley in 2017, who
0:49actually followed it up with 26 fantasy points per game. The following age 24 season, you had Ezekiel Elliott, Devontto Freeman, Darren McFaten, James
0:58Connor, Kareem Hunt, Doug Martin, and then Jir Gibbs, who we'll talk about in one second. And the only running backs with this kind of year 23 that had fewer
1:09than 14 fantasy points per game the following year were Kareem Hunt and Doug Martin. Neither of whom had anything close to the prospect profile that we
1:18had from Bejian Robinson. And if y'all remember, I actually got to interview Bejon Robinson at the red carpet of the NFL draft. Something that I am forever
1:25grateful that y'all allowed us to do.
1:28So, thank you so much for the support everyone. And yeah, we all already knew at that time Bejan was going round one
1:34of fantasy drafts in his rookie season.
1:37So, he's an elite running back. He has the size. He has the skill set that you want as a receiving back. He averaged
1:446.1 targets per game last season. So, it's hard to get away from him. And then going over and looking at Jir Gibbs,
1:53there is a world in which I put Gibbs as our running back one this year once we get the data for these offensive
1:59outlooks. Like again, if sports books come out 5 months from now and they go, you know what, the Detroit Lions project
2:04to be a top five offense and total points scored this year and the Atlanta Falcons project to be a bottom 10
2:09offense, I'll probably go ahead and put Gibbs at one because Gibbs had an incredible season in his own right. 21 and a half fantasy points per game right
2:16there with Bejian Robinson. I mean, he had five and a half targets per contest.
2:21He had 71 rushing yards per game. And the big thing that we got to look at as well is uh David McGomery is another
2:27year older. And David McGomery really took a backseat this past year in his age 28 season. And we'll get to him
2:35later in the video, but it does appear that those running backs going into their age 29 seasons, the base case is
2:42going to be that obviously the 29year-old running back declines, at least historically. Now, that kind of leads us into our next tier because we
2:50are going to need to talk a little CMC.
2:51We are going to need to talk a little Jonathan Taylor. Now, looking at McCaffrey, clearly he was the running back one by a wide margin last year. I
3:00mean, S won the Flock League because he had the Stones to draft Christian McCaffrey in round one. And what happened was Christian McAffrey averaged
3:0824 and a half fantasy points per game.
3:11Christian McCaffrey went out there with 18.29 29 rushing attempts per contest, six receptions a game, 70 rushing yards per game. And surprisingly, McCaffrey
3:20was at the very top of the NFL among all players in total receptions last season.
3:26So, if we look at the receiving usage, it is going to be difficult to project him to scale back as much as what we've
3:33historically seen with these 30-year-old running backs because we have a lot of data at our fingertips, right? Use the range of outcomes tool on
3:40flockfantasy.com. It's completely free.
3:42What we can see is there were a lot of really good 29-year-old running backs. I mean, Alvin Kamara in 2024 averaged
3:49about 19 fantasy points per game. Jamal Charles in 2015 averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game. And how many great 29-year-old running backs did we see
3:59improve in their age 30 season? One one player and that man was Derk Henry. Now, of course, Christian McAffrey may repeat
4:08history with Derrick Henry. help.
4:10Christian McAffrey could even be better.
4:12So, I I would draft McCaffrey round one this year, but you do have the age concern. You do have the historical
4:18injury concerns that just aren't present with Bejian or Gibbs, which is why obviously I would have them a tier above. And then looking at Jonathan
4:26Taylor, Taylor started off the season extremely strong, right? You go through and you look at what you had before the Daniel Jones injury. I mean, Jonathan
4:35Taylor had 1, two, three, four, five, six games with over 25 fantasy points by week 10. And among those, five of them,
4:46he had over 31 fantasy points. I mean, all six of them, he had over 29, you had a 60% chance that you were getting a 29
4:54plus point game from Jonathan Taylor at the beginning portion of the season.
4:59Now, the offense collapses. they lose their quarterback and then obviously Jonathan Taylor is much much worse in the second half of the season. But
5:06Jonathan Taylor was a phenomenal prospect coming out of Wisconsin. He's been a great running back through his entire NFL career where we can go back
5:13and see him average 21 and a half fantasy points per game back in his second season. So, it's not like this
5:18came out of nowhere. I mean, he's been a top 12 running back in points per game for three straight seasons. The only
5:24real concern that you're going to have with JT is what does the Indianapolis Colts offense look like this next year?
5:30Can they have anything close to the production that they did at the beginning of this past season? Now, let's move over to our next tier. It's
5:37going to be James Cook, Devon Achan. So, all in all, I would actually say that I probably prefer the Devon Aan profile on
5:46paper, right? Devon Achan at 24 years old coming off an incredible season where he actually averaged 20 fantasy points per game more than James Cook and
5:56the historical comps are incredible.
5:58like he looked very similar to say Dvin Cook in 2019 who averaged 24 points per game the following season. Um the
6:05concern that I'm going to have here is going to be the change with the coaching staff. Now obviously Shawn McDermott's also out in Buffalo, but the difference
6:13is you actually have the offensive coordinator in Buffalo getting promoted to the head coach. So I'm assuming on the offensive side of things, not much
6:21is going to be changing for the Buffalo Bills. And if anything, they add a wide receiver or two. Hopefully, the offense
6:27would actually end up getting better.
6:29And this has now been back-to-back seasons for James Cook where he's performed quite well where two years ago he was the RB1. This past season, he's
6:37the RB6. He's in the prime of his career. Look at the range of outcomes tool. There's no reason to assume that a
6:42running back should take a significant step backwards at age 27. Devon Aan again on paper, I like the profile more, but I'm more so concerned with the
6:51overall change with the coaching staff in Miami than I would be in Buffalo.
6:55Now, moving over to Ctier, I'm going to be very interested to see how sports books project out the Raiders this next
7:03season. Now, I believe off the top of my head that the Raiders were projected to be the sixth worst offense going into
7:09this past season. So, sports books were kind of prepping us, hey, they're going to be bad. Now, did it stop me from
7:15going out there and drafting Brock Powers? No, I'm an idiot. Y'all know that at this point. Um, but with Ash and
7:20Genty, if the Raiders can just be the sixth worst offensive, if they could just be bad and not the league's worst,
7:30Genty could be phenomenal. What's actually very interesting is if you look at the age 22 season for Ashen Genty and compare this historically, a name that
7:39pops up is actually Todd Gurley, who actually only averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game in 2016. What happened in his age 23 season? Oh, the Los
7:51Angeles Rams did a 180, changed coaching staff, and what happened? 25 and a half fantasy points per game. Todd Gurley was
8:00one of the best fantasy running backs of all time. 25 and a half fantasy points per game is more than what you just had
8:04with McAffrey. So, that's in the range of outcomes for Genty, especially if you look at the collegiate profile. I mean, he's a great prospect. Now, on the flip
8:13side of this, who else pops up in the range of outcomes? So, oh, Trent Richardson. Trent Richardson fell from 17 fantasy points per game at 22 down to
8:23nine fantasy points per game at 23. So, wider range of outcomes with Genty. It all comes down to what does the new
8:29coaching staff do with the offense? What does Mendoza do with the offense? Now, somebody who can't stop watching Lily Vert Mendoza Instagram reels, um, I'm
8:38I'm getting a little hype for the Raiders. I'm going to be honest with you. Now, Amarian Hampton's just set up for a massive bounceback. I I honestly
8:43don't even know if it's worth looking at the range of outcomes tool with the Marian Hampton. I don't even know if
8:47it's worth looking at his season because it's just such a small sample, right? I mean, this is a running back that gets
8:53hurt at the beginning of the year. But I do want to point out that the two full games he played before going down, he
8:59scored 24.9 fantasy points and 27 and a half fantasy points. Now, Kamani Vidal looked very good in his absence. By the
9:06time Amari Hampton came back in, it's not like he was the bellcow level running back that he had been at the
9:11beginning of the season. But Amarian Hampton checked every single box as a prospect, was a round one NFL pick. And while the Chargers had arguably the
9:19worst offensive line in the NFL last year, it's not that bad on paper going into 2026. You get both your left
9:25tackles back, presumably two guys that are top 10 in the NFL at their position.
9:29Like if you remember going into the season before the Chargers just had a completely decimated O line, they were supposed to have one of the better
9:36offensive lines in the league. Now Jeremiah Love is supposed to be an Ashen Genty level prospect. I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm a next level
9:44expert with all these rookie running backs at this point. Um, but the one guy that we have looked a considerable amount into that I've been just told
9:52about over and over and over again from the other creators on flockfantasy.com is Jeremiah Love, who does look like he is not only a lock to be a top 10 NFL
10:01pick, but if you look at the situations inside the top 10 NFL picks this year, probably better than what Ashen Genty
10:08dealt with last season. Now, moving over to Dtier, two running backs that plagued my season at the very end this past
10:16year. where Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley had both in the flock league in back-to-back years we get bounced in the semi-finals. Um Josh Jacobs effectively
10:24got injured at the end of the season and week 16 he puts up 4.8 points. In week 17 he puts up 1.3. Thank you buddy. You
10:32should have sat out. You should have let me play Emanuel Wilson instead. But Josh Jacobs just turned 28 years old. I know
10:38he's been in the league forever but he was actually only 20 years old when he was drafted. So a little bit of a
10:43younger running back still. is actually a year younger than Barkley. And I do think Barkley just objectively looked worse this past season. And I don't see
10:52any reason to believe that the Philadelphia Eagles will be a significantly better offense this next year than the Green Bay Packers. Um
10:59Chase Brown looked incredible to end the year. Like the first seven weeks, Chase Brown did not eclipse 13.5 fantasy points. His best week was 13.1. But then
11:10weeks 8 through 18, he did not have a single game with fewer than 15 fantasy points. And if you look at the range of
11:17outcomes tool with Chase Brown, the range of outcomes are incredible on the season that he just had. Now, the main question that you're going to have with
11:25Chase Brown is, is he the Cincinnati Bengals starting running back going into this next year? And I would assume that um based on how weak this draft class
11:34is, unless they make a play in free agency to turn it into a committee, he's probably the guy. Um going over to Bucky
11:40Irving. Bucky Irving really strong rookie season. Then obviously no idea what happened this past year.
11:47Like his injury was one of the weirdest injuries that we had. It was a multitude of injuries. We had no idea what the
11:52timet was on him. And then he ends up coming back in the second half of the season and just wasn't really the same
11:59running back. Like the first four games that we had with Bucky Irving, he had at least about 14 fantasy points in every
12:06contest and then the last six games that you had with Bucky, he had four games with fewer than 11. So very different
12:14running back after the injury. However, you can go back to 2025 and you can just see that he was the running back 19 in
12:22points per game. But again, a lot of those games at the beginning brought down that average where he really didn't start seeing that involvement until the
12:32second half of the season where he was a top 12 RB. Now, as we move over to a tier that has guys like Kenneth Walker,
12:40Trevon Henderson, I do at least need to bring up the underdog pickums that are available for the Super Bowl here because the two biggest time periods for
12:50underdog pick them promos are going to be the kickoff of the NFL season and the Super Bowl. If you are ever going to hop
12:57on, if you are ever going to open up the app so you can check out the pickums, I would say now probably should be the
13:03time. Right now, Kenneth Walker is higher or lower 99 and a half total yards for the game. If you go over to
13:09Trevon Henderson, who we're going to talk about in one second, uh uh he's higher or lower 25 and a half or Madres
13:16at 78 and a half. But regardless, you can check out all those pickups on Underdog. They're doing give me picks.
13:21They're even doing $75 added to your account after you play your first five with Code Flock. Links in the description, comment section, available
13:28in almost every state. Now, Dererick Henry won literally somebody millions of dollars on underdog last year because all the money is paid out in week 17.
13:38And what did he do? He dropped 45 and a half fantasy points. And very similar to every player that goes off in week 17.
13:48Fantasy drafters, they remember that.
13:51Remember where Marvin Mims was going last year. Remember where T. Higgins was going last season. They love love love chasing the big week 17 performance from
14:01the year prior. As if it's any more predictive of what's going to happen this next season than week 14. It's the
14:08same thing. What happened in week 14?
14:10Oh, Dererick Henry had 11 points. What happened in week 15? Oh, he had 10 points. Like the reality of the situation is if we go back and look at
14:17what Dererick Henry did this past year, Dererick Henry was the running back eight in fantasy. Dererick Henry had a total of two games with 25 or more
14:27fantasy points, whereas you actually saw a significant amount of games where he was sitting with fewer than 12. So I do
14:38want to acknowledge that Derrick Henry is probably the best pure rusher of the football that I've ever seen being a 27y
14:45old guy, but he is now going to be 32 this next season. The only running back that we have seen uh really come through
14:56and improve significantly from their age 32 to age 33 season was I want to say Raheem Moert. So it just frankly never
15:07happens.
15:09But Dererick Henry has done it time and time and time again where we have no precedent for it and he's able to get it
15:18done anyway. Now moving over to Kairen Williams. Kairen Williams did see a significant step back with his usage from 2024 to 2025 where he had 74% of
15:29the carries for the Rams in 2024 to only 57% of the carries for the Rams this past season. Now the efficiency great
15:374.8 yards per attempt significantly higher than the year prior. 5.6 yards for target higher than the year prior.
15:43Um, and obviously we are going to have to monitor what the Rams do with the backfield going into this next year, but
15:50I mean Karen has been a top 10 running back in fantasy for three straight years. Bree Hall going to be a free
15:57agent. If he is a New York Jet, am I going to be super excited to draft him?
16:01No. He's coming off year 12.9 fantasy points. Now, with that being said, I want to stand by the fact that I believe
16:07Bree Hall is one of the more talented running backs in the league and has the possibility to find himself with a very
16:13good landing spot this next season. Now, Kenneth Walker was a very bad fantasy pick this past year. If you took Kenneth
16:19Walker in round four, your draft, you probably weren't happy when he was the RB 28 in fantasy points per game. He
16:25only had 48% of the snaps and was consistently cucked at the goal line by Zack Charbanet. Now thing with Charbanet is he tears ACL so late in the season
16:34that Charbanet is probably not going to be available at the beginning of the year and that's going to lead to Kenneth
16:38Walker probably getting resigned by the Seattle Seahawks and if he has the goal line opportunities at the beginning of the year he's probably a top 12 running
16:44back until Sharbs makes it back. Travis CTN is a free agent chance that Jacksonville brings him in. But why I like these free agent running backs like
16:53Bree Kenneth Walker Travis CTN more than I otherwise would this draft class is incredibly weak. Like we've talked about one rookie running back so far and we're
17:02only going to talk about a couple more in this class. So I think these free agent backs probably going to end up
17:08with jobs. Then we can go to the year two backs starting with Quinn Sean Judkins. Um Judkins was pretty good as a
17:16rookie all things considered. The only thing that sucked for him was uh the Cleveland Browns, but he is going to be
17:23a Cleveland Brown again this next year.
17:25And at the same time he doesn't have the receiving skill set. So, that is going to be a concern. Um, I actually probably
17:31need to move RG Harvey ahead of Quinshan Judkins for that reason because realistically, while yes, I do like Quinchan as a player more than I do
17:40Harvey, uh, frankly, it doesn't matter if RJ Harvey is going to be in a much better offense and have more receiving
17:45usage. And then going over to Trevon Henderson, like Henderson I really liked as a prospect, but I may even need to
17:51move him down the tier below this given the fact that we get to the actual NFL playoffs when I mean it matters more
18:01than ever and Raadre Stevenson is the guy out there. Again, we just went ahead and looked at those projections on underdog. They have Stevenson higher
18:09lower 78 and a half total yards for the Super Bowl whereas Trevion Henderson's higher lower 25 and a half. like it it's
18:17very much a concern for a player that I was very excited about. Now going over to F tier, Cam Scataboo looked
18:25incredible. I drafted him last year in the Flock League, started him a bond, traded him away um right before he got
18:30injured, but obviously didn't know that was going to happen.
18:34The only real thing with Scataboo is one, this was a player that didn't necessarily have a ton of team investment. He was a day three pick. and
18:42two, he does see a significant significant injury. So, I have found that I am always overrating these guys
18:52coming off severe seasoning injuries this early in the offseason and we see their price typically fall as the offseason goes on. So, I'm trying my
19:01best to learn my lesson here, but if he was fully healthy, obviously it'd be significantly higher in these ranks. Um, Javvante Williams looked incredible this
19:10past year. And to keep in mind with Javvante, this was a running back that didn't come out of nowhere. I mean, he
19:15had a very strong prospect profile coming out as well. Um, looking over at DeAndre Swift, um, DeAndre Swift had a multitude of games with over 20 fantasy
19:25points. Like, Swift actually averaged 15.24 fantasy points per game, which was the most that we have seen since his second season in the league in 2021. I'm
19:35going over to Madre. It's going to be very interesting to see what the New England Patriots do this next year. I
19:40you would have assumed that they went ahead and they drafted Trevian Henderson to be the future and then they're using Stevenson still as the starter. Um
19:50Jaylen Warren was in my opinion very disappointing for the fact that Caleb Johnson did literally nothing for Kenneth Gainwell to have that type of
19:57role. It was a surprise, but Jaylen Warren still finished as the RB19. I would expect the Pittsburgh Steelers be a very bad offense this next season
20:05though. Um Tony Pard dealt with some of the worst offensive environments that any running back could have had this past year. Um but he did still have a
20:14total of 64% of the Tennessee Titans carries. So if the team gets better this next year and Tony Pard stays with the
20:23team could just have natural improvement. Going down to our next year we have Price Coleman. I'm be honest with the deeper running backs I know
20:31very little. These guys look like they're going to go day two of the NFL draft probably round three, but it does
20:37appear to be an extremely weak draft class where a lot of these guys that you're betting on at the very end you're
20:43kind of hoping turn into Tyler Algier.
20:45Um Kyle Manungai flashed in his rookie season of course, but I mean never really had a receiving role and it does
20:52seem that DeAndre Swift should be ahead still with the Bears. Going over to Woody Marks. Woody Marks looked horrendous. Woody Marks, 25-year-old
21:00rookie that had the opportunity because everybody in Houston was either injured or very bad themselves. And Woody Marks just simply could not do anything,
21:10averaging 3.6 yards per attempt. Looking very bad at the same time. Rico Dattle flashed in a big time way. It's going to
21:16be super interesting to see what happens with the Carolina backfield this next year. Do want to point out that there's a chance Jonathan Brooks is healthy and
21:22just in the mix. um Belle Tutin uh thought he was going to be something when he scored 15 points in week two and
21:29then obviously we saw Tank Bixby get dealt never did anything however there's the outside chance Travis ETN leaves Blake Cororm expanded his role but still
21:39at the same time Blake Corb no receiving skill set whatsoever and then going down to our last tier Kenneth Gainwell massive receiving
21:48upside but at the same time if you're drafting now you're probably drafting an underdog which is half PPR are um going
21:54over to Tyrone Tracy. Um Tracy could move up if we were to get bad news about the campus Gataboo injury. Um Jaci
22:02Kroski Merritt seemed like they wanted to give him the opportunity. Uh he had every opportunity and he couldn't beat out Chris Rodriguez. Um Trey Benson, I
22:10drafted him a ton last year because we were a little bit worried about the James Connor stuff and it honestly didn't even matter. Trey Benson gets
22:17injured himself and at this point we're going in year three and we haven't seen anything but a somewhat intriguing prospect profile. It's not even like he
22:24was a phenomenal prospect. Um Chubbert uh he did points look like he was taking back over the starting job at the end of
22:31the season. And then David McGomery saw a significant step backwards this past year falling down to a career 37% of the
22:39snaps and 36% of the team's carries for Detroit. But I think that's all I got for you. Again, I really do appreciate
22:46you. These ranks going to change a lot as we go through the off season, but I did want to get something out there and
22:52just start having a conversation with these guys as I know a lot of y'all are already drafting. And um yeah, if you're
22:58not already drafting, if you wanted to, if you're a crazy person, link to Underdog Fantasies in the description.
23:03And at the same time, they have all those Super Bowl projections out. You can go high or lower, pretty much any
23:08state. Uh link to that's in the description as well. code flock will give you all the promos plus $75 added to your account after you play your
23:14first five. Much love, ladies and gentlemen. really appreciate you and hope that I get to see you out with um the next
