0:00running backs and top offenses crushing
0:02fantasy almost every season. And the
0:04great news that we have for you is we
0:06know who those offenses will be. The
0:08math here is striking. I have looked
0:10over the past 22 seasons and I have
0:13tracked out the running back one finish
0:15for every top five offense verse every
0:18bottom five scoring offense in those
0:21years. And here we can see that if
0:23you're in a top five offense as the
0:25starting running back, you will have an
0:2780% chance of finishing as a top 24 RB.
0:30If you in a bottom five offense, you're
0:32only going to be at 43%. Now, if we're
0:35looking at your ability to finish as a
0:36top 12 running back in fantasy, you'll
0:39have a 52% chance of doing so if you're
0:42in one of the league's best offenses,
0:44and you will only have a 17% chance of
0:46doing so if you were in the bottom five.
0:48Now, where things get crazy is if you
0:51want to finish as an elite running back
0:53in fantasy, this is going to be a top
0:55five RB finish, the running backs from
0:57those top offenses have a 28% chance of
1:00doing so, and the running backs from
1:02bottom five offenses only have a 5%
1:05chance. Now, you may ask, "Well, Mason,
1:07how do we know which offenses are going
1:09to be the best and worst in the NFL?"
1:12And that's very simple. Sports books
1:14have already put out the overunders and
1:17the spreads of every single NFL game.
1:19From those data points, we are able to
1:22calculate the implied team total and get
1:24the projected score for every single
1:27offense every single week and average
1:29them all out. Last season, those
1:32projections told us that the Buffalo
1:34Bills were supposed to be the best
1:36offense in the NFL. And if you drafted
1:38James Cook, he finished as the RB6. The
1:41Baltimore Ravens. And obviously Lamar
1:43got injured. Dererick Henry was fine,
1:45but he wasn't a great pick. The San
1:46Francisco 49ers, Christian McCaffrey
1:49finished as the running back, one
1:50overall. The Los Angeles Rams, Kairen
1:53Williams finished as a top 12 RB. The
1:56Kansas City Chiefs, obviously, rest in
1:58peace Isaiah Pacheco. And then Jir
2:00Gibbs, who finished as that top three
2:02back. Now, what I want to go through
2:04will be what offenses are supposed to be
2:06the top five to six offenses in the
2:08league this year and should we be
2:10targeting their starting running back in
2:12our fantasy drafts. Now, let's start it
2:14off with the Los Angeles Rams. Not only
2:17are the Rams projected out to be the
2:20best offense in the league, but it's by
2:21a decent margin as well. They currently
2:24project to score 26.7
2:26points per game. The number two offense
2:28is at 26.1. The number three 26.1.
2:32number 426, number 526. So, the Rams
2:35have a clear leg up in comparison to all
2:37the other teams in the NFL right now
2:39with sportsbook projections. And it's
2:42not like Kairen Williams is a round one
2:44fantasy pick. I mean, we can go over to
2:46the consensus ADP sheet on fogg
2:48fantasy.com and you can see these Rams
2:51prices, at least for the starter, seems
2:54pretty reasonable. Kairen Williams
2:56currently has an average ADP a pick 32.
2:59That's exactly where he's ranked in the
3:00expert average rankings on
3:02flockfantasy.com.
3:03Now, of course, his price point does
3:05depend on the format that you're
3:07drafting in. In CBS leagues, he's going
3:09at the beginning of the third. In ESPN
3:11leagues, he's going at the 34 turn.
3:13Everywhere else, he's pretty much a
3:15third round pick. Now, for me, if we
3:18look at this Kairen profile, I
3:20understand why some people would be
3:21concerned because the usage hasn't
3:23trended in the right direction, right?
3:25We can go back and look at where he was
3:26in 2023 and 2024 where he had over 80%
3:30of the snaps played for the Los Angeles
3:32Rams both seasons. In the 2024 season,
3:35he had 88% of the Rams snaps. Really
3:39being the number one bellcow running
3:41back in the NFL when it came to usage.
3:43And that did dip down in 2025. In 2025,
3:46he only played 70% of the snaps, which
3:49again significantly lower than what we
3:51had in 2024 and 2023. And the reason for
3:54this was the emergence of Blake Cororm,
3:57especially at the end of last season,
3:59Blake Cororm really did come on strong
4:01with his usage. Right? If we look at
4:03weeks 10 through 18 for Cororum, you can
4:05see that he had 40%, 31%, 34%, 29%, 33%,
4:10a 46, 29, 25, 35. So Blake Cororm
4:14definitely began to get a little bit
4:15more used in the back half of the year,
4:18but I still want to compare the Kairen
4:19Williams 70% snap rate to some other
4:22elite running backs in fantasy, right?
4:24Who's another Bellcow running back? Oh,
4:26Bejian Robinson. And where was Bejian
4:28Robinson at last year? 79%.
4:31Who's another elite Bellcow running
4:33back? Jir Gibbs. Where was Gibbs at last
4:36season? 68%. So Kirn's snapshare is
4:40still one of the best marks in the NFL.
4:42The Rams still project to be one of the
4:44best offenses in the league. How I would
4:46be using this data is I would probably
4:49target Kairen Williams in round three.
4:51If I started my draft off wide receiver,
4:53wide receiver, maybe if you're playing
4:55in like a two wide receiver, one flex
4:57format, you take Jamar Chase in round
5:00one, then you go ahead listen to our
5:02draft sheets because in that kind of
5:04format, we'll probably be telling you to
5:06take Bowowers in round two. I think
5:08Kyron Williams could be a quality round
5:10three pick if you need a running back.
5:11Now, on the opposite end of the
5:13spectrum, maybe you started your draft
5:15off with Christian McAffrey and then
5:16Derk Henry. I don't know if you want to
5:18be going round three Kron Williams in
5:20that instance. Maybe you'll be a little
5:22bit better off grabbing a tight end in
5:23round three like Trey McBride or mixing
5:25in a wide receiver like Malik Neighbors
5:27or Rasheed Rice. But of course, if you
5:29need help with any of your roster
5:30balancing, that's exactly what we have
5:32the flockfantasy.com draft sheets as
5:34well as live draft assistants for. They
5:36are customized to your exact league
5:38settings, the exact draft platform that
5:40you're on, so you can scoop these
5:42massive, massive ADP values depending on
5:44where you're drafting. And the
5:45flockfantasy.com season pass is still
5:48only 34 bucks right now. If you sign up
5:50with code flock, you are also going to
5:52be getting free questions that you can
5:54ask me in the live streams. And I'm
5:55going to be live streaming every single
5:57night until Christmas answering your
5:59fantasy football questions. Now, let's
6:00move over to some more expensive running
6:02backs, right? Let's talk about James
6:04Cook. And I don't want to sit here and
6:06say like, "Oh, the Buffalo Bills project
6:08to be the second best offense in the
6:10league, so you should go through and you
6:12should draft James Cook because what's
6:14he cost?" He's the running back five in
6:16fantasy drafts at the moment. He has an
6:18average ADP of pick 11. Some drafts he
6:21goes higher, some he goes lower. Like in
6:23sleeper drafts, it looks like he is a
6:25mid round one pick. and ESPN leagues
6:27there. You could get them in the second
6:29round, but the majority of platforms,
6:30you'd have to either take them at the
6:32very end of round one or the very
6:34beginning of round two. So, fantasy
6:36drafters understand at this point that
6:38the Buffalo Bills very good offense. We
6:40talked about their offensive line
6:41previously. James Cook last season was
6:43the running back six in points per game.
6:46He actually had a careerhigh with his
6:47carries per game, his rushing yards per
6:49game. the receiving usage took a slight
6:51tick down in comparison to where he was
6:53early in his NFL career, but he still
6:55was a league winner even though the
6:58receiving usage dipped down and he had
7:00touchdown regression hit him from 2024
7:02to 2025. And that's priced into fantasy
7:04drafts. Again, this video is not going
7:06to be reinventing the wheel telling,
7:08"Yo, James Cook, somebody got a draft at
7:09the end of round one." I do think he's
7:11appropriately priced, though, and it's
7:13not like I'm avoiding him in drafts,
7:15mainly because of this data. Now, let's
7:16go over and let's look at Jamir Gibbs.
7:18And same thing here. The Detroit Lions
7:20project to be either the second or third
7:22best offense in the league dependent the
7:24day that you look at this data. And
7:26really this is the only reason why I am
7:28going ahead and drafting Jir Gibbs over
7:32Robinson at the 101 right now. Again,
7:35Jir Gibbs, Bean both have stellar
7:37profiles, both play every single game,
7:39have no injury history. Both running
7:41backs were both top three running backs
7:43in points per game this past season.
7:45Both of them lose competition from their
7:47respective backfields in the form of
7:49Tyler Algier as well as Isaiah Pacheco.
7:52So I mean really with this data the only
7:54thing you can do with Gibbs is use it as
7:56a tiebreak between him and Bejian
7:58Robinson but obviously not reinventing
8:00the wheel to tell you oh target Jir
8:02Gibbs in your fantasy draft. Now our
8:04next player we need to discuss is going
8:06to be for the Baltimore Ravens as the
8:08Ravens project score a ton of points
8:09this year and that is going to be
8:11Derrick Henry. Now, what I'm concerned
8:13with, a multitude of things. One,
8:15Derrick Henry turns 33 in January. Two,
8:17the coaching staff is different. Three,
8:18their offensive line actually gets a
8:20little bit worse year-over-year. And
8:22four, with Derrick Henry, we can go
8:24ahead and throw him in the player
8:25comparison tool on flockfantasy.com.
8:28And what I want to do with Derrick Henry
8:30is I want to look at what happened
8:31through the first 16 weeks this past
8:33season because obviously week 17 he goes
8:36absolutely nuclear, but that was a game
8:37in which you had the starting
8:39quarterback for the Green Bay Packers
8:40out and you had Lamar Jackson out. It
8:42was the Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis
8:44Bowl. So I don't really know how
8:46predictive that is of fantasy football
8:48success into the future for Henry. And
8:50if we remove that singular week,
8:51Dererick Henry averaged 14.8 fantasy
8:54points per game and was the running back
8:5516. And if we go through and if we look
8:57at where Dererick Henry is currently
8:59getting drafted, Derrick Henry depended
9:02on the platform looks to be in my
9:04opinion either a reach or appropriately
9:07valued. Like right now the
9:08flockfantasy.com average consensus
9:10rankings have him at pick 21. In sleeper
9:13drafts, he goes at the two three turn.
9:15In your underdog drafts and your CBS
9:17drafts, he's more of a middle of the
9:19round two pick. But most platforms,
9:21you'd be looking to take him in the
9:22middle of round two to the end of the
9:24second round. Now, where I have a
9:26problem with Henry is if anybody
9:27considers taking him ahead of a running
9:29back such as Amari and Hampton where I
9:32think that you are getting the upside
9:34swing with the Hampton profile versus
9:36Derrick Henry on the slide. Now, Henry
9:38of course is one of those players that
9:40is so unique with how he scores fantasy
9:42points because we know it's not going to
9:44come through the air whatsoever. So, if
9:46you are using my draft sheets, you will
9:48see that there is a massive difference
9:50in how I am ranking Derk Henry in a
9:52nonPPR format as opposed to a full PPR
9:55league. In a nonPPR format, I have
9:58Derrick Henry as a mid to early round
10:00one pick because duh. But in a full PPR
10:03format, I would be looking to target
10:05Derrick Henry at the end of round two if
10:07I started my draft off with Jamar Chase,
10:09Puka Nua, or Jackson Smith and Chigba
10:12with a 103, 104, or 105. Now, moving
10:14over to the Cincinnati Bengals. I like
10:17seeing the Bengals on this list as a
10:18projected out top five offense because
10:21as of right now, the Bengals offensive
10:23line does project to be in the lower
10:26half of the NFL. So, seeing sports books
10:28say it doesn't matter. Look at the
10:30weapons on the team. Look at the
10:31quarterback that they have. It does give
10:33me confidence in drafting Chase Brown.
10:36So, the Ravens, the Bengals have the
10:37same exact points projection for this
10:39next year. For me, I would view Chase
10:41Brown and see what he did in the second
10:44half of the year once Joe Burrow
10:46actually did come back to the Bengals.
10:48And I think that is extremely telling of
10:51what we should expect this next season
10:52because early in the year, obviously, it
10:55was a disaster for Brown where he looked
10:58like he was going to be one of the
10:59biggest bust in the league, but that was
11:01just because they had garbage
11:02quarterback play with Jake Browning. And
11:04if we use the player comparison tool on
11:06flockfantasy.com and look at the eight
11:08games that Chase Brown played with
11:09Burrow, he averaged 19.4 fantasy points
11:12per game. In comparison to the games
11:14with no Burrow, he only averaged 14.1.
11:17And it was the difference between the
11:18running back three finish and the
11:20running back 18. So I am very
11:23comfortable drafting Chase Brown in the
11:25second round. He's been one of my go-to
11:27targets. If we're looking at the cost
11:29across platforms, Chase Brown right now
11:31with his flockfantasy.com average
11:33ranking is currently sitting at 14. And
11:36your sleeper drafts, he goes at the end
11:37of the second. In your ESPN drafts, he
11:39goes at the end of the second. CBS, he's
11:42up there as a late round one pick, early
11:44round two pick. But the perfect spot to
11:46take Chase Brown, very similar to
11:48Derrick Henry, is if you start your
11:50draft off with Jamar Chase, with
11:52Puganua, with Jackson Smith and Jigba,
11:55because it looks like he's a proven
11:56receiver in the prime of his career with
11:59a production track record, no additional
12:01competition, and the Bengals offense
12:03projects to be very strong. Now, moving
12:05over to the Dallas Cowboys, I feel like
12:07we have to include them because the raw
12:09points projection between the Cowboys
12:12and the Bills from 2 to six is actually
12:15closer than the Bills to the Rams from 1
12:17to2. So, the Cowboys could very easily
12:21finish in the top five, which is
12:23extremely relevant and interesting when
12:26it comes to Javvante Williams. Now,
12:28Javvante currently is a round four pick
12:30in underdog drafts as well as sleeper
12:33drafts. Now, in your ESPN league, in
12:35your Yahoo League there, you may have to
12:37take him in the middle of the third
12:38round. Where I personally would be
12:40interested in drafting Javvante
12:42Williams, because there's no real
12:43competition in this backfield, and
12:45obviously the Dallas Cowboys project be
12:47a really good offense, is with builds in
12:49which I start with at least one wide
12:51receiver through the first two rounds.
12:53So, I don't know if I would want to
12:55target Javvante Williams in round three.
12:58If I started my draft off say with a
13:00round one Jonathan Taylor pick a round
13:02two Chase Brown selection they're in the
13:05third I think you're probably better off
13:06going through and drafting that wide
13:08receiver like Rashid Rice rather than
13:10taking Javvante. However, say you start
13:13your draft off from the 10 spot, right?
13:16You started off with Justin Jefferson in
13:18the first. In the second round you grab
13:20Amari and Hampton there. If you're fine
13:22with it, I could see taking Javvante
13:25Williams at the 3-4 turn being a very
13:27reasonable pick because again, this is a
13:30really good Dallas Cowboys offense where
13:32Javvante Williams last season um did get
13:34used as a receiver. He's been used as a
13:36receiver every year of his NFL career,
13:38averaging at least three targets per
13:40game, and he did finish as the top 12
13:42running back in points per game last
13:44season. But I think that's all I got for
13:46you. I really appreciate you and hope I
13:47was able to help you out here. And of
13:48course, if you want to take custom draft
13:50sheets or a real-time draft assistant to
13:53your fantasy draft this year to make
13:54sure you win, the season pass on
13:56flockfantasy.com is still only $34 bucks
13:59for the time being. That's not $34 a
14:02month. That's $34 for the entire season.
14:05And if you use code flock when you sign
14:06up, you're going to be getting free
14:07start sit and trade questions that
14:09you're able to ask me in the live stream
14:11during the season. Link to that is in
14:13the description as well as the comment
14:14section. But much love. I really
14:16appreciate you and I really hope I get
14:18to see you out in the live stream later
