0:00What won fantasy drafts last year? Was it taking the stud wide receiver like Jamar Chase in round one, or instead was
0:06it hitting on a mid to late round wide receiver that broke out like JSN? Oh, it was finding that value in the middle
0:13rounds. Drafting someone that has never done it before that all of a sudden turns into the definition of a league winner. That's what I'm going to try to
0:20do in this video. I'm going to rank the top 10 breakout candidates going from 10 to 1 and how we are defining a breakout
0:28candidate is going to be a wide receiver that is younger than 26 years old. We're not looking at Davante Adams here and
0:34also has never averaged 14 points per game in a season. Of course, we can look at names that are young like Treylon
0:40London that's already done it, right?
0:42There's a reason he's going in round two of drafts, but again, I want to focus it on the guys that have never given us
0:48that top end production and are still young enough to potentially make that leap. Now, starting off with 10, Xavier Worthy is a name that is embarrassing to
0:56bring up and the very simple reason for this is I told you to draft him last year. Yep, I I'll admit it. I'm man
1:02enough and I'm man enough to take my L as well. I mean, I could come through and say, "Oh my gosh, he tore his labrum
1:08in week one. Who knows what would have happened? Maybe he would have been a good pick in round five." No, no, no,
1:13no, no. I'm man enough to admit it wasn't going to work out, right? The torn labrum is just a convenient excuse
1:19where I can maybe save a little bit of face and not act like a complete idiot.
1:24But if we look at Xavier Worthy, the issue dates all the way back to his rookie season. Xavier Worthy in his
1:30rookie year, not even looking at this past season in year two with the torn labrum, he was the wide receiver 43 in
1:37points per game. He averaged 11 points per contest and which is completely fine, right? We don't need to just look at counting stats and just go, "Oh,
1:45okay, he didn't score a ton of points per game his rookie season. He's toast."
1:48No, there'll be other wide receivers that fit that same mold that I'm actually into in this video, but the underlying efficiency numbers, they were
1:55a red flag. You played with Patrick Mahomes. Remember in 2024, Rashee Rice was cooked. Rashee Rice took a dive to the knee from Mahomes himself that
2:06pretty much kept him out the entire season.
2:09And that should have allowed Xavier Worthy to really elevate and turn into at least a wide receiver two, at least an efficient wide receiver in an Andy
2:19Reid Patrick Mahomes offense with extremely little competition.
2:23For whatever reason, I wanted to overlook all of it. I wanted to say, "Oh, he was a round one pick. He was
2:29good at the University of Texas. He He looked good in the Super Bowl in garbage time. Let's bet on the year two breakout
2:36last season." It simply didn't work. He fell down to 7.85 fantasy points per game. The efficiency remained the same.
2:44This is the biggest concern for me. We can actually look at that yards per route run number going from 1.32 in his
2:51rookie season to 1.35 in year two. Even with the torn labrum, I don't think we can ignore just how he's been historically an inefficient
3:01wide receiver in this Chiefs offense.
3:04And now you have Rashee Rice fully healthy coming into this next season.
3:08You have Kenneth Walker presumably going to give the Chiefs the ability to run the ball this year. And Patrick Mahomes coming off a devastating knee injury of
3:16his own.
3:17Maybe they skew a little bit more run heavy. So, with Xavier Worthy, I definitely think he has the chance to break out because he was a good prospect
3:24at Texas. And he did have some flashes in his rookie season. But I think the breakout at this point is ultimately
3:31unlikely. And we can't just blame this past season's failure on the torn labrum because there'll be other wide receivers on this list that dealt with their own
3:40injuries this past season.
3:42Now, looking over at Ricky Pearsall, I want to come through and just diminish one thing that people are immediately going to say in the comment section.
3:53Because whenever I have brought up in the past that oh, Ricky Pearsall has had a difficult time staying healthy, what does everybody say? Oh, he got shot.
4:03It's not his fault. I mean, how are you going to hold getting shot against him?
4:07And yeah, that is true, right? I'm not going to blame getting shot on Ricky Pearsall. It's incredible that he lived.
4:12It's incredible that he was able to play at all in his rookie season coming back in week seven. So, we can ignore the
4:19fact that Ricky Pearsall through the first six weeks of his NFL career missed time due to being hospitalized from getting got, right? But, what we can't
4:28ignore is since he did return, like Ricky Pearsall gets injured in week 10 of his rookie season, misses a three-game stretch. We go to 2025, Ricky
4:39Pearsall gets injured yet again in week four. Ricky Pearsall also misses games at the very end of his second season as
4:47well. None of this is complicated. I At least it's not complicated in terms of tying it with the gunshot wound. It's
4:53just completely separate injuries that are at this point beginning to stack up for Pearsall and becoming a very real red flag. The other thing that's a real
5:02red flag for Sticky Ricky for me is he is turning 26 years old in just a couple of months, right? He's going to be a lot
5:09older than a lot of the other names that we see on this video. And with this as well, Ricky Pearsall has never averaged
5:1710 fantasy points per game in his entire NFL career. Now, maybe that's not that big of a concern. Maybe you say, "Oh,
5:23okay. Well, Mason, come on, man. He's had a lot of target competition."
5:27No, he hasn't. In 2025, he legitimately had no competition whatsoever. Like, we of course had George Kittle for a large
5:37chunk of games, but I mean, Kittle missed time in his own right. And you had no Brandon Aiyuk the entire year.
5:44Now, all of a sudden, it does appear that Mike Evans is healthy, on track to play week one, on track to be the
5:51legitimate alpha wide receiver in this offense. Um, Christian McCaffrey averaged 7.6 targets per game last year because no other wide receiver could get
6:00it done in San Francisco. So, I'm not buying Pearsall. I know he has the round one NFL draft capital. He has flashed,
6:08but ultimately he's never been super efficient. He's had the opportunity to get it done. He's had difficulty with injuries to the first two years of his
6:15NFL career. And now they're bringing in Mike Evans, so Pearsall's going to be nine in this video. I do think that there are a lot
6:22of red flags here. Even though he's in a good offense, he is going into year three, so he's definitely a breakout
6:28candidate, right? It wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. Now, this is where y'all are going to begin to maybe not like me very much in this
6:35video cuz I have to be the wet blanket when it comes to Parker Washington. Now, good news for Parker Washington is it
6:43was almost as if we saw a breakout at the end of this past year, right? Cuz we can go through and with Washington, we
6:50can see the final three weeks of 2025 him score 26.5 points in week 16, him score 19 points in week 17, him score
6:59almost 20 points in week 18 as well. So, during that three-game stretch to end this past season, he averaged over 20
7:06fantasy points per game. So, that is a very impressive mark, and I know a lot of people are going to be excited about
7:12how he ended that past year. The other thing that I want to give credit to is he's still really young, right? We just
7:18looked at Ricky Pearsall, who's going into his third NFL season, and Pearsall's about to turn 26. Parker Washington is like a year and a half
7:27younger, and he's going into his fourth NFL season. So, he's young. We saw the flashes at the end of this past year.
7:34So, a lot of people are excited, right?
7:37As of now, he is getting drafted as the wide receiver 33 in Underdog drafts. If you were looking at the average ranking
7:45of Parker Washington on flockfantasy.com, this includes guys from Fantasy Land, Fantasy Domain, Fantasy Stock Exchange, Davis, myself, right? A ton of the creators that you
7:55watch on YouTube, you'll see that Parker Washington has an average ranking of wide receiver 44, 11 spots behind his Underdog ADP as of today. Now, quick
8:05side note for flockfantasy.com, we are getting out those draft sheets for y'all today. I know it's a little bit early, but I want you to be able to go around
8:13play with them. We're going to keep updating our rankings every single day throughout the entire year, and we are going to keep up to date with all of
8:20your sleeper ESPN Yahoo ADP. That way you can take advantage for your exact draft with your exact league format. All of that's available on flockfantasy.com,
8:30not only from myself, but all the favorite creators that you watch. Links in the description, it's in the comment section. We still have the 2026 season
8:39pass available for only $34. You're going to get access to all the redraft tools on the site, and when you sign up
8:45with code flock, I'm also going to be answering your start/sit questions and trade questions for free during the season as well.
8:52But, going to the negative side of Parker Washington for 1 minute, let's just call a spade a spade. Parker Washington has had two games in his
9:033-year NFL career with 20 or more fantasy points. Parker Washington's breakout last season occurred when Travis Hunter was out for the year, and
9:12Brian Thomas Jr., which has been confirmed at this point, was dealing with a multitude of injuries that severely limited him. Now, of course,
9:21I'm not expecting Travis Hunter to play over Parker Washington. I think Hunter's going to see a ton of defensive snaps, but he is going to be on the offensive
9:28side of the ball as well. Brian Thomas does appear to be fully healthy with all the reports that we have coming out of
9:33camp at the moment. So, I think Parker Washington is going to see more target competition this year than what we saw
9:41last year for him when he finishes the wide receiver 39 in points per game. And on top of this, if you pull up the
9:48updated sports book projections on flockfantasy.com, you will have seen that the Jacksonville Jaguars project to be one of the number one offenses in the
9:57league when it comes to regressing year-over-year. The Jacksonville Jaguars average almost 27.9 points per game last season, but their 2026 projection
10:07according to sports books, it actually has them closer to middle of the pack in the NFL at 23.2. So, Parker Washington
10:15has had two 20-point games in his entire NFL career. He's going to be in a worse offense this season with additional
10:21target competition, which is why I have him ranked well behind ADP. I'm not taking him very often, and neither are any of the other creators on
10:29flockfantasy.com.
10:31Now, let's move this over to Josh Downs.
10:35Josh Downs is an industry plant at this point. I'm willing to say it. Like, to be honest with you all, I'm already
10:41thinking about making a video um titling it the top 10 industry plants in fantasy football. And Josh Downs is going to be
10:48on that list because every off season, every fantasy football creator, which I'm a part of, we all scramble over each other to see who can rank Josh Downs the
10:58highest. And the Indianapolis Colts and Josh Downs kind of had the best case scenario last year, right? Like, the Indianapolis Colts this past season um
11:08were at the very top of the NFL when it comes to their total points scored.
11:13Like, let's just pull this up. They scored 27.4 points per game. The only offenses better than the Colts last year were the Rams, the Bills, the Lions, the
11:23Cowboys, the Seahawks, the Jaguars, and the Patriots. So, we had the Indianapolis Colts as the eighth best offense in the league, very similar to
11:33what we just discussed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That projects to come back down to earth in a big-time way year-over-year. This season, the
11:41Indianapolis Colts project to be the 18th best offense in the NFL, which obviously is a massive step backwards.
11:48Now, the positive news that we have with Josh Downs is you have no Michael Pittman Jr., right? Michael Pittman Jr.
11:54is going over to the Pittsburgh Steelers, opening up a ton of vacant targets. I mean, if we look at Michael Pittman Jr., he averaged 46 receiving
12:03yards per game last season, 4.7 receptions per game, and 6.5 targets.
12:09So, a lot of people are thinking that Josh Downs is going to get a sliver of this. And while I think that may be
12:15true, right? Let's go through and let's be optimistic here. Let's say that Josh Downs gets, what? Um 25% of this Michael
12:23Pittman Jr. volume? I think that may be a fair assumption, right? I mean, that's a decent slice considering the fact you're going to have another wide
12:31receiver running those same routes.
12:33You're going to have Alec Pierce on this massive contract extension. You're going to have Tyler Warren going into year two. But still, let's go through the
12:39what-if situation. Let's give Josh Downs 25% of these numbers. That's going to move Josh Downs from a wide receiver who averaged 35 receiving yards per game
12:48last season to what? Um somebody that is closer to 45 receiving yards per game?
12:54How How does that potentially move the needle? And at Josh Downs' size, we've never seen him be an effective touchdown scorer at the NFL level. I mean, we've
13:03I I'm not in on this. While yes, there are more targets available in the Indianapolis Colts offense, it's a rush-first offense. It's supposed to be
13:10a hell of a lot worse this year. And Josh Downs is coming off a season where he just averaged 8.5 points per game in
13:17one of the league's top offenses. So, Alec Pierce was actually the guy who broke out in Indy last season, not Josh
13:23Downs, the guy every fantasy analyst was pumping. And this year, I'm going to be ranking Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren to
13:29be the pass catchers that you want for the Indianapolis Colts, but obviously it's going to be a rush first offense regardless and an offense that's going
13:35to be worse than they were last year.
13:37Now, the guy that made it where I profited almost $30,000 in drafts last season was Mr. Quinton Johnston. He was going off the board in the wide receiver
13:4770s. I decided, you know what? This is ridiculous. Let me make him my most drafted player in fantasy football. It was a very simple equation. I looked at
13:57a wide receiver that was in a good spot, what projected to be a good offense with good quarterback play, that had the
14:04round one capital, that at 23 years old had just finished as the wide receiver 40 in points per game, and he was being
14:10drafted as the wide receiver 70 because everybody thought it was funny to make fun of his drops. He finished as the
14:16wide receiver 26 in points per game. We profited like 30k and thank you, Quinton Johnston. I owe you everything. Now, the
14:24problem that we have with Quinton Johnston this year is we're not getting that same type of discount.
14:31We were able to draft him around wide receiver 70 last season. This year, he's going off the board as wide receiver 36.
14:38However, let me point this out to y'all.
14:41He finished as the wide receiver 26 in points per game. Now, you have no Keenan Allen and going over to those sports
14:47book projections, all of a sudden you actually have the Los Angeles Chargers projecting to be a much better team year over year in comparison to what they
14:55were last season. The Chargers last season averaged 21.6 points per game, but with the improvements that we see across this entire offensive line,
15:04primarily getting their tackles back, also the improvement with the offensive coordinator coming over from Miami, what? We have the Chargers now projected
15:13to increase their offensive output by about two and a half points per game.
15:17So, with Quinton Johnston, let's just run through the numbers.
15:20Finished as the wide receiver 26 in points per game last year. You now have less target competition with Keenan Allen leaving. The offense projects to
15:28be better than it was and you're able to draft them at wide receiver 36. While it's not so good of a value where I can
15:36run it back and I can make this my entire personality and I can put every dollar I have in drafts into Quentin
15:42Johnston. Not going to be able to do that again. But I think out of all the wide receivers we've talked about in
15:49today's video so far, he is by far and away the most exciting and keep in mind he's still pretty damn young as well.
15:56Like Quentin Johnston hasn't turned 25 years old yet.
16:00Now, let's move over to our fifth breakout candidate and this is going to be Marvin Harrison Jr. Now, with Harrison, the first thing that I want to
16:11reference is the type of prospect that he was. He was viewed as a generational prospect coming out of Ohio State.
16:19This wasn't just an average round one wide receiver. A lot of these guys went round one of the NFL draft whether it
16:26was Quentin Johnston, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Worthy or Marv, right? Quentin Johnston, Xavier Worthy, most people viewed them as round one talents. Most
16:34people thought that the Niners ended up reaching on Ricky Pearsall, but Marvin Harrison was viewed as somebody that could have gone off the board as a top
16:42three pick very easily in NFL draft circles. The reason for this is simple.
16:47We can go back to Ohio State in 2023 and you can look at the production that we saw with Marv. This is an offense that
16:55had Emeka Egbuka, another name we're going to talk about one second. This is an offense that had Carnell Tate. This is an offense that had TreVeyon
17:02Henderson. Three players that were all very exciting. Now, of course, Carnell Tate much younger than Marv. Don't necessarily want to make it that big of
17:09a deal, but with all that in mind, he had over 1,200 receiving yards in 12 games played in comparison to a Buca
17:17with only 515.
17:20Like he dominated some of the best wide receivers in college football at the best program in college football to a historic level.
17:29He gets to the NFL and if y'all remember in his rookie season people were drafting this dude at the one-two turn
17:36in fantasy drafts. As of right now Carnell Tate's the first wide receiver off the board in drafts this year that's a rookie and he is going at the end of
17:44the fifth. He's going at the beginning of the sixth. And so you know, we're not going to talk about rookie wide
17:48receivers in this video. I'm going to save that for another one. But everybody was so excited about Marv. And what did
17:54he end up doing? In his rookie season he averaged 11 and a half points per game.
17:59Efficiency nothing special 1.68 yards per route run. I mean he had a ton of work, right? He had 6.8 targets a game.
18:06He had over a 22% team target share for the Arizona Cardinals and then what happened in the following season?
18:15It got worse. He fell from 11 and a half points per game down to 10 and a half.
18:20And at the same time we actually ended up seeing Michael Wilson once he got the shot with Marvin Harrison going down
18:29Michael Wilson broke out to be a legitimate league winner, right? I mean where he had from weeks 11 through 18 two separate games with over 30 fantasy
18:40points and four separate games with over 20. So up until this point Marv has completely face planted at the NFL level. However, he is still incredibly
18:49young. There are so many moving pieces in this Arizona Cardinals offense with the coaching staff with potentially the quarterback play that I almost want to
18:59just bet on the talent the talent that we viewed coming out of college and I think Marv's fallen to the point where
19:05if he is off the board as a low end wide receiver three high end wide receiver four getting drafted currently as the
19:11wide receiver 34 in drafts. It's a fair price point, right? He hasn't even turned 24 years old yet, even though that's going to happen any day now.
19:20Now, moving over to Rome Odunze, Rome is going to be my fourth breakout candidate here that I am most excited for.
19:28With Rome, he almost broke out this past year, right? Like through the first four games of this past season, he looked incredible. He
19:37had scored 15 and a half points in week one, 32 points in week two, then 15 in week three, 17 in week four. This had
19:46led to me ranking Rome Odunze, by the time we got to week five, as a top 15 wide receiver in our rest of season
19:54ranks. I thought we were seeing a full-blown breakout in the Ben Johnson offense with Caleb Williams.
20:01What happens in the middle of the season? The middle of season he breaks his foot.
20:05So, all of that gets derailed. Now, if we're looking at just his actual um a per game numbers from the course of the
20:1212 games that he played, he only averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game.
20:18The efficiency was better this past season than it was in year one. He averaged 1.71 yards per route run in comparison to 1.32, but still nothing
20:27super special. We had reports earlier in the off season with Rome Odunze regarding his broken foot saying, "You know what? Um this is just my nor- new
20:36normal. I have to run in pain, blah blah blah. I have to adjust how I'm going."
20:41A lot of people got nervous from that.
20:44He recently posted a video of him on the treadmill sprinting. He looked just fine. Um from what I have read on the
20:52situation with the foot injury, it doesn't sound like this is something that we really need to be concerned with. If he had an incredible rookie
20:59season, I would just be willing to look at the first four games that he played in 2025 and go, "You know what? This is
21:05who he is. Let's rank him as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy drafts.
21:11But, because his rookie season was so underwhelming, where he finished with eight and a half fantasy points per game, I can't completely ignore the
21:19drop-off we had this I can't completely ignore the drop-off he had in the second half of this past year. So, for that
21:27reason, I think I will prefer Luther Burden in drafts if we are just talking about like ranking these guys straight up. But, with that in mind, I'm not the
21:36only person ranking Luther Burden ahead of Roma Odunze. Luther Burden currently, at least in Underdog drafts, obviously, we're going to get you those sleeper
21:43draft sheets, we're going to get your ESPN draft sheets, your Yahoo draft sheets very soon. We'll see where he ends up going in those drafts in August.
21:51But, as of right now, in the drafts in which money's actually being exchanged, Luther Burden's the wide receiver 21 off draft boards. He's going nine wide
21:59receiver slots ahead of Roma Odunze.
22:02Again, I understand why people are so optimistic.
22:05Luther Burden was an incredibly efficient wide receiver. Luther Burden in his rookie season averaged 2.78 yards per route run, which was a top five mark
22:17among all wide receivers in the league last year. He averaged 10.9 yards per target. The breakout happened exactly when you would have wanted to see it in
22:27week 17, where he scored almost 28 fantasy points. So, all of that has Luther Burden as a wide receiver that people are incredibly excited about.
22:38Like, Zach from Fantasy Land has him ranked at wide receiver 18. I have him down at wide receiver 25 if you were
22:45just looking at my rankings on flockfantasy.com.
22:49And I do want to point out a red flag with Luther Burden that I think a lot of people are just willing to straight up
22:56ignore, because if you look at the rookie season comparisons with the flockfantasy.com range of outcomes tool.
23:03The names that will show up will be like Courtland Sutton, Rondale Moore, Robert Woods, Rashod Bateman, Tyler Lockett, Jalen Coker, Keanu Hill, Michael Wilson,
23:11Treylon Burks. Like not the best names in fantasy and you may wonder like, oh, why is that happening if he is so
23:17efficient and he's so dynamic when he gets the ball? It's because he couldn't get on the field his rookie season. And
23:25not being able to get on the field in year one is a massive massive red flag.
23:30Now this next section took me a ton of research. If you're ever going to go down there and drop a like on the video,
23:35do it now. But here with Luther Burden, I tracked every wide receiver over the past 10 years that was selected as a top
23:4410 wide receiver in their draft class.
23:47Then I tracked their yards per route run for both the regular season and the NFL playoffs in their rookie seasons. I
23:54tracked the amount of routes per game that they run in their rookie season both in the regular season as well as
24:00the playoffs. And I wanted to filter this and get some type of idea of like what range does Luther Burden belong in.
24:07And if we look at the only wide receivers that average more yards per route run than him, we have A.J. Brown,
24:12Chris Olave, Ja'Marr Chase, Bryan Thomas, Ladd McConkey, Justin Jefferson.
24:16An incredible list. The other guys that are close to him are Christian Watson, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Malik Nabers, Kadarius Toney. Again, a ton of hits.
24:26But that's only the efficiency numbers.
24:28But if we sort this by routes and look at the wide receivers that were selected as a top 10 wide receiver in their draft
24:34class that ran fewer than 20 routes per game, you have Kadarius Toney, Christian Watson, Rondale Moore, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, N'Keal Harry,
24:45Trey Harris, D.J. Chark, Isaac TeSlaa, Parris Campbell, Jalen Polk, Marvin Mims, Mecole Hardman, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams, Jack Bescht, Dwayne Eskridge, Kyle Williams, Taiwan Taylor,
24:56Auden Tate, Andy Isabella, Chris Moore.
24:58So, two things can be true at once. When Luther Burden got on the field, he looked very good. And that is a massive,
25:03massive green flag, and it's a great indicator.
25:06But, it can also be a massive red flag that he did not get on the field over DJ Moore and Ole Miss Zequious.
25:14So, um I am going to view this as like a high ceiling, very low floor type play.
25:23But, you could see him very easily break out. That's why we are going to have him as my third name in this video. Now, our
25:28next wide receiver is going to be Egbuka. A a name that's legitimately impossible to look at what he did last season and try to figure out how it's
25:36going to apply to this next one. Cuz I've never seen it before. Legitimately never.
25:40I know we've talked about this a ton.
25:42But, in the first five weeks of this past year, he was a top three wide receiver in fantasy.
25:48And then, week six onwards, he had one usable week.
25:54He had one game with 11 or more fantasy points, and he had 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
26:01games with fewer than 10. I can't comprehend that. Like, typically we're supposed to see rookie wide receivers start off slow and get better over time.
26:10We have some changes here with the wide receiver room. Obviously, Mike Evans leaving Tampa, going to San Francisco.
26:17But, Godwin was nothing last season, right? Like, um the realistic expectation for Godwin in my mind is going to be that Godwin can only be
26:27better in 2026 than he was in 2025, where he only played nine games. And obviously, he missed the first half of
26:35the season in which Egbuka was going absolutely nuclear.
26:39The other thing that's worth noting is Jalen McMillan also missed the beginning of the year in which you had Egbuka go
26:47nuclear, where McMillan wasn't able to come back until week 15. And they go through and they add Ted Hurst this offseason as well, a decent little wide
26:57receiver prospect to bolster the wide receiver depth. So, they lose Mike Evans, but Mike Evans was playing when I bucha was dominant anyway. The guys that
27:07weren't playing when I bucha was dominant were Godwin, McMillan, Ted Hurst obviously wasn't college football at the time. Now, I know you
27:16can blame a lot of this on Baker Mayfield where we can go through and we can look at Baker and he has a very
27:22similar drop-off, right? Like Baker Mayfield through the first 6 weeks I'm look pretty damn good. He looked usable in fantasy. Like I mean if y'all
27:29remember in 2024, people were talking about like Baker Mayfield MVP level season and that kind of got carried over to the beginning of 2025 and then Baker
27:38completely fell apart halfway through the year where he only had one game with over 20 fantasy points after the first 5
27:43weeks. So, maybe everything just hinges on what we have with the projections for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where last season the Bucks averaged about 22.4
27:54points per game. This year they're supposed to be slightly better, but about the same. Uh sportsbooks have them at 22.9 points per game, an increase of
28:02about half a point per contest.
28:05Now, my number one breakout candidate in fantasy this year. This is all wide receivers that have not scored 14 points per game in a season before and that are
28:14younger than 26 years old will be T-Mac.
28:18Tech McMillan, Teterow McMillan, whatever you want to call him. We're going to rock his jersey in so many videos, so many live streams because he
28:24is currently my number one most drafted player over 200 fantasy drafts in. I'm getting him in round four of Underdog drafts and I cannot stop taking him. If
28:35I pull up Teterow McMillan, I have him at wide receiver 17 in my rankings on flockfantasy.com.
28:42I'm right in the middle of creators. We have Zach Avery higher on him. We have Danny and Corey lower on him. And I just
28:49want to run through it all. Terrace Marshall McMillan was a phenomenal prospect coming out of college. If you weren't watching our dynasty stuff last
28:57off season, let me just give you the quick overview. The 2024 Arizona Wildcats had Terrace Marshall McMillan not only as their wide receiver one.
29:08He was their wide receiver with 1,300 receiving yards.
29:13Do you know what the number two wide receiver had in this offense?
29:19300.
29:21Hard to comprehend that level of dominance. It It truly is.
29:25The last time I can remember something like that at the collegiate level was a Mr. Drake London, right? I can pull up
29:33Drake London at USC, and London in eight games played went through and had over 1,000 receiving yards. He averaged 135
29:43receiving yards per game, and the number two name in his offense averaged 57. So, I guess Terrace Marshall was actually even more dominant than Drake London was
29:53at USC.
29:54What does this lead to? It leads to him getting selected not only as a top wide receiver in last year's draft, but as a
30:03top 10 pick overall going at pick eight to the Carolina Panthers. So, baseline expectation isn't like a Jaylen Waddle.
30:11We don't know if he's any good. I mean, he's kind of a guy that didn't do much in college, gets drafted later in the
30:17NFL draft, blah blah blah. No, base expectation is this dude was a freaking beast in college. He goes top 10 in the
30:24NFL draft. He's probably a stud.
30:27And then what does he do in the NFL? Oh, in his rookie season, he has 25%.
30:33Yes, 25% of the targets for the Carolina Panthers.
30:38That is very similar to what Drake London did in his rookie season for the Atlanta Falcons. The efficiency wasn't bad either. 1.88 yards per route run,
30:488.3 yards per target. What did his rookie season comps look like, right?
30:53Not even taking into account that he was a beast of a college player, just his straight-up raw rookie numbers.
30:59DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Rashee Rice, Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, and then Ihmir Smith-Marsette.
31:07How many of these wide receivers took a step forward from year one to year two?
31:11Metcalf Kupp Rice Higgins Lamb and Diggs. The only two that didn't were Claypool and Brandon Aiyuk. And Claypool and Brandon Aiyuk weren't anything close
31:21to the collegiate player that T-Mac was.
31:24Now, I understand people are going to say "Well Mason um come on, man. You got Bryce Young under center. We we can't be excited
31:30about a Carolina Panthers offense."
31:32But, if we look at current sports book projections, the Panthers project to score over 20 points per game this year.
31:39Like, last year they averaged 18.3, but they're projected to increase by about 1.8 points per game. Bryce Young did show some flashes last season. And if we
31:50look at Young, um he's only 25 years old, right? There is room to believe that maybe he improves at 25. Like, he
31:58was 24 last year.
32:00So, I think that the cost of T-Mac, who I'm drafting in round four of every single draft that we're essentially doing on
32:08the live stream every single night, that is floor price if the Carolina Panthers are just the whatever offense how they have been over the past few seasons.
32:16However, if they were to surprise to the upside, I think you can see Mcmillan as the next Drake London, and that's why
32:24I'm investing so much money into him right now. But, I really appreciate you.
32:27I am so excited for you to use the flockfantasy.com draft assistant and draft sheets to dominate your fantasy draft this year. Again, they are going
32:35to be able to be customized to your exact platform, your exact league settings as well. Whether you're in a 10-team league where you only start two
32:43wide receivers, one flex, whether you're in a 12-team superflex league, well, whether you're in a 14-team league, or maybe you're in a 12-team non-PPR where
32:51you have two flex spots, right? All of that's going to be accounted for in the flockfantasy.com draft sheets, which will be included when you get the season
32:59pass, which is still available for only $34. Link's in the description, it's in the comment section. Code flock is going to get free questions that you can ask
33:07me during the season with start, sit, and trade, and also get you access to everything else that everybody you already watch on YouTube posts on
33:15flockfantasy.com.
33:17But, much love, ladies and gentlemen. I really appreciate you, and I really hope I get to see you on the live stream
33:21later tonight.
