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Your Leaguemates Are Completely Ignoring These Coaching Changes

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 21 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 11, 2026

Published

Sat, July 11, 2026

18

Player insights

18

Players mentioned

Topics

Amon-Ra St. BrownBrock BowersChase BrownDallas GoedertDe'Von AchaneDeVonta SmithDrake MayeFernando MendozaJaxon Smith-NjigbaJayden DanielsJustin FieldsKeaton MitchellKirk CousinsLadd McConkey

Player analysis

Player insights

18

Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeValue45:46

Amon-Ra St. Brown is being drafted ahead of JSN in the source's preference due to JSN's regression risk; St. Brown offers more reliable production without the same structural headwinds facing JSN in 2025.

Brock Bowers

NegativeRole21:48

Speaker has been 'kind of back and forth' on Brock Bowers in Kubiak's offense but is intrigued by his potential. Kubiak can execute efficient play-action passing, which could benefit Bowers; however, speaker leans toward Ashton Genty if forced to choose one tight end given the Raiders' expected slow, run-heavy offensive approach and low Vegas implied point total (28th in league). Speaker cautions against letting receiver analysis like Trey Tucker distract from Bowers, similar to how Tory Horton analysis caused them to miss on JSN last year.

Chase Brown

PositiveValue36:12

The speaker prefers Chase Brown as a draft bet over Saquon Barkley in round two, indicating better value or upside relative to Saquon's ADP.

Dallas Goedert

PositiveProjection38:38

The speaker is most in on Dallas Goddert at ADP among Eagles pass catchers. Goddert has been targeted over the middle of the field at decent rates by Hurts in the past and has zero playing time concerns—will be out there for effectively every route.

De'Von Achane

PositiveProjection13:40

Rookie RB1 in McDaniel's 2023 Dolphins offense, averaging over 17 fantasy points per game and finishing as a top-five running back; serves as historical precedent for future backfield production under McDaniel's system.

DeVonta Smith

PositiveProjection36:57

The speaker is most in on DeVonta Smith at ADP among Eagles pass catchers. Smith will be worked in the slot with plenty of targets; he has been targeted over the middle of the field at decent rates by Hurts in the past and has zero playing time concerns—will be out there for effectively every route.

Drake Maye

PositiveRole0:21

Hyper-mobile QB who has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates since 2022; benefited from coaching change impact in fantasy when his offense got a new play caller.

Fernando Mendoza

PositiveProjection25:45

Mendoza is expected to enter the Raiders offense by week 4–5 as a potential under-center alternative to Kirk Cousins, who has not gone under center much since tearing his Achilles and is limited in running Kubiak's efficient play-action offense. Mendoza could be very efficient, similar to Sam Darnold's 2024 performance. While not fantasy-relevant in redraft leagues, Mendoza is worth adding to Raiders stacks in best-ball formats as a three-quarterback build piece; the speaker is highly confident he plays weeks 15–17 when fantasy playoffs matter and can be taken essentially for free at his current ADP.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveProjection10:40

JSN's 2024 breakout season will be extremely difficult to replicate in 2025 due to multiple regression factors: (1) Sam Darnold's elite deep-ball accuracy (first of 149 QBs over 5 years in highly accurate throw rate on 20+ yard attempts) created most of JSN's big plays and fantasy points; (2) JSN scored 26% of his fantasy points on just 16 deep play-action targets, with the average receiver regressing from 79 to 36 fantasy points year-over-year on such plays; (3) JSN had the fourth-fewest red-zone targets of any elite WR1 (one per game), and new OC Brian Flory emphasizes rushing attacks in the red zone rather than passing; (4) JSN was five points above his volume-based expectation (XFP), suggesting significant positive variance. Drafting him fifth overall is risky given these structural headwinds. Seattle example: JSN got 'super juiced' but limited secondary options, cautionary tale for Chargers under McDaniel where depth may suffer despite offensive efficiency gains.

Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection5:27

Hyper-mobile QB cited as a late-round cheat code that has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates in ESPN managed leagues since 2022, alongside Drake May and Justin Fields in their respective years.

Justin Fields

PositiveProjection5:27

Hyper-mobile QB cited as a late-round cheat code that has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates in ESPN managed leagues since 2022, alongside Jaden Daniels and Drake May in their respective years.

Keaton Mitchell

NegativeRole9:06

Chargers RB facing multiple headwinds: (1) questioned as fit in Mike McDaniel's zone scheme with potential committee concern similar to Kamani Vidal situation, though Ron Stewart downplayed these concerns as overthinking; (2) late-round draft option facing limited snap support—Chargers offense may not run enough total plays to support fantasy-relevant snap amounts for all roster pieces, forcing prioritization toward most efficient targets rather than secondary options; (3) even with potential gadget play role, faces structural constraints. McDaniel's backfields average 20–25 expected fantasy points per game, providing margin for error if Mitchell gets involved, but snap volume scarcity limits upside.

Kirk Cousins

NegativeRole26:45

Cousins has not gone under center much since tearing his Achilles, severely limiting his ability to run Kubiak's efficient play-action offense which requires quarterback mobility and the ability to turn his back to the defense. Kubiak is constrained by having to keep Cousins in shotgun, unable to actually run an under-center offense, which may force the team to turn to Fernando Mendoza sooner than expected if Cousins proves too restrictive for the offensive scheme.

Ladd McConkey

PositiveProjection15:15

Projected as fantasy WR1 in year two under McDaniel. Rationale: (1) most complete receiver skill set in the offense; (2) excels on short routes and benefits from McDaniel's quick-release philosophy; (3) inherits target volume from Keenan Allen's departure; (4) underrated downfield threat—fourth-best yards per route on go routes over past four seasons, just ahead of Tyreek Hill; (5) efficiency gains from healthier offensive line and reduced target competition will compound. Speaker acknowledges paying premium ADP on sharper platforms but views it as justified given the fit and efficiency upside.

Raheem Mostert

PositiveProjection13:40

Historical precedent for McDaniel's elite backfield production: in 2023, Mostert and rookie Devon Achane both averaged over 17 fantasy points per game and finished as top-five running backs, demonstrating McDaniel's ability to support multiple fantasy-relevant backs simultaneously.

Sam Darnold

NegativeProjection44:00

Sam Darnold's 2024 elite deep-ball accuracy was the primary driver of JSN's breakout season. Darnold ranked first of 149 quarterbacks over the past five years in highly accurate throw rate on attempts of 20+ yards downfield. This elite performance is unlikely to be maintained, creating significant regression risk for his pass catchers in 2025.

Saquon Barkley

NegativeProjection32:40

Barkley had the highest RB target share under Jalen Hurts last year at 10.7%; while AJ Brown's departure could theoretically increase his target volume, the Eagles added other pass catchers to the offense, and the speaker is not fully convinced the target share will rise meaningfully. Rushing efficiency gains (e.g., 4.5 to 5 yards per carry) from Manion's under-center scheme are overrated in fantasy; the real money in PPR is target share, and Barkley would need either 50+ catches or 2,000 rushing yards to reach 20+ PPG, neither of which is likely given Hurts's historical reluctance to dump down to RBs. The speaker finds himself drafting more Saquon than desired; when zooming out on implied points, the Eagles' top-15 offensive output and top-5 OL suggest he should be valuable, but he is overexposed to him at his ADP relative to the actual upside case. However, the thought experiment around under-center play-calling and potential pass-game involvement has made the speaker not totally out on Saquon in round two; he thinks Saquon is kind of fine where he goes, though he prefers Omar Khan and Chase Brown as bets.

Tre Tucker

PositiveRole23:01

Kubiak named Trey Tucker first when asked about standout wide receivers, then grouped him with Pro Bowl-level talents Max Crosby and Colton Miller when discussing veterans who can contribute. Tucker was heavily used on deep play action last year, with his air yard share nearly doubling when the Raiders rarely used play action. He has more production history than Jaylen Naylor, who is currently going ahead of Tucker in ADP. This is a best-ball-only play; Tucker doesn't matter in managed leagues.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

702

0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. Omron and one of the biggest edges in fantasy football is staying ahead of the coaching changes

0:08around the NFL last year. We had a lot of big offenses step up with new play callers. You had New England with Josh

0:14McDaniels. You had Seattle with Clint Kubak. You had the Jaguars with Liam Cohen. You had the Bears with Ben Johnson. These were top 10 offenses that

0:21delivered big hits, right? We're talking JSN, Drake May, the guys on the Jaguars, Caleb Williams across the board. This is where we can kind of find the gems in

0:30fantasy football. On the other side of that, we have catastrophic blowups. That was last year, Chip Kelly with the Raiders, Kevin Patulo with the Eagles,

0:38and across the board, deciphering which one of these play callers gives a positive or negative impact to each offense is a massive deal in fantasy.

0:46So, what better time than to bring on a good friend of the channel, if you watch this channel at all, every video I'm

0:52referencing a Ryan Heath tweet. You can find him at Ryanj Heath on Twitter. He works over at Fantasy Points and just

0:58dropped an article covering every single play caller change in the NFL this season. We have 18 of them. Uh, so a lot

1:05to go over today. How is it going, Ryan?

1:07>> Hey, I'm doing great, man. Really excited to talk about all of these play callers. It's article release day for me. It's just like Christmas. I finally

1:14get to have it out there after working on it for weeks and weeks. So, yeah, I'm super pumped. Let's get into all these

1:20guys you want to talk about.

1:22>> I love to hear it. Now, before we even dive into each individual new play caller, I think it's good to outline

1:30what actually matters, what we're looking for, what are the positives, what are the negatives. I think fir the first thing I want to cover is this M

1:38Shanahan tree idea that you have spoken of over the past couple of years. The issue is that now like about half of the

1:44league is of course under your MC Shanahan tree. Uh I'm curious what has been that cheat code in the NFL? We have

1:52been long looking for the Konami code QBs later on, but the Mcshanahan tree has been an interesting edge that you've kind of uncovered.

1:59>> Yeah, so the the Konami code, the hyper mobile quarterbacks definitely are still a cheat code uh even in the later

2:07rounds. When we look since 2022, yeah, some of the guys who have really outperformed their ADP, uh posted really big playoff win rates, uh in ESPN

2:18managed leagues have been the mobile guys. Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Justin Fields, uh, in their different years, right? Uh, but beyond that, kind of

2:26looking beyond just the guys who run, if we're talking about drafting a late round quarterback, yeah, the Mick Shanahan quarterbacks that are playing

2:34in one of those offenses, a Shanahan tree offense or a McVey Tree offense have also made up basically all of the

2:42other late round quarterback hits that we've seen over the past several years.

2:46Uh, in 2023, we had CJ Stout as a rookie, uh, playing for Bobby Slowick, a Mc Shanahan tree coach, uh, get have

2:54like a really strong rookie season, right? Uh, Brock Party in 2023, Matthew Stafford in 2021 and 2025. Basically, all of these late round hits that aren't

3:04the super hyper mo hyper mobile guys that run a ton have been in this Mc Shanahan coaching tree. Uh so yeah, as

3:15you mentioned, now the entire league is kind of just copying the Mc Shanahan scheme or they're hiring up their assistants at an absurd rate. Uh 44% of

3:25NFL teams, something like that, are going to have a M Shanahan tree play caller this year. Uh and it's also not

3:33the case that all of them have been amazing historically, right? Uh Shane Waldron was a MC Shanahan treeplay caller that fantasy gamers uh probably

3:41have very mean things to say about, right? It's important to kind of look beyond that. We can look at uh certain

3:47tendencies uh like during snapotion, play action rate, of course, historical efficiency, other indicators for some of these play callers to kind of evaluate

3:56them, figure out which are the MC Shanahan tree play callers that we actually want to buy into. Uh so that that's what I'd say. Yeah, like while

4:05the classification is nice and it totally has been a cheat code to just blindly draft a late round quarterback in one of those offenses, uh we can

4:15definitely look deeper. We have all of the data, all of the information, a ton of great reporting uh to kind of dig and

4:21sift through. So, yeah, excited to do some of that here today. I'm going to have all of these graphics that you

4:27mentioned in the article kind of on the screen here. Um is there any in particular? You you did mention motion where that has been a big thing at the

4:34snap motion. All of these things that we're trying to read the breadcrumbs for when it comes to a meaningful positive impact play caller if any of those stick

4:44out or you just want to kind of give the uh overview on those key points.

4:48>> Yeah, I I can give the quick overview.

4:50So I mentioned play action in terms of motion. It's important to not just think about total motion or pre- snap motion

4:58and shift in general. Uh what we've really seen over the past handful of seasons is that the biggest edge comes specifically from motion at the snap. Uh

5:08skilled players, so running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends averaged 43% more fantasy points per route run on plays that included that during snap

5:19motion. Uh so that's not just the player that themselves was in motion. that's just for the whole offense when they have a player uh doing a motion at the

5:28snap like that. So that that's a big cheat code to pay attention to uh and to know whether play callers are

5:35instituting that a lot, right? Uh and yeah, the route breaks uh horizontally breaking routes are just more efficient for uh the individual receiver running

5:47them than vertically breaking routes.

5:49So, a horizontal breaker would be like an in or a dig or an out as opposed to like a go route straight down the field,

5:57right? We see the targets per route run, the yards per route run come way up for receivers whenever they're running those

6:04horizontally breaking routes. Uh Zayn Dani also has an awesome article out over at Fantasy Points uh talking about not just route breaks, but also route

6:14depth. Uh so generally receivers that are running most of their routes very far down the field are just worse for fantasy. Uh it's it's not that they're

6:24inconsistent. It's not that they are boom or bust. It's that even their boom outcomes often aren't as good as the boom outcomes of the receivers running

6:34shorter routes. Uh especially in these half PPR and PPR formats that a lot of people play in. So yeah, that's like a

6:41decent overview of efficiency cheat codes. Um, yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about personnel at different points here, too, where if you have a wide

6:51receiver on the field, uh, with competing against tight ends and fullbacks and like these non-p passcatching specialist players, we see their efficiency also go way up. And

7:03yeah, some play callers will use those heavier sets with fewer wide receivers in them more than others. and that can be a major cheat code for whatever wide

7:12receiver is lucky enough to still be on the field uh in those heavier sets. I do want to add the motion stuff has been so

7:20interesting cuz I feel like for like not the dinosaur ages, but older school fantasy football has been that we have been wanting to chase the uptempo

7:31offense. Like can we get a lot of plays in? Can we get uh quick on the line, no huddle rate just to get more play

7:36volume, more receptions? And it almost seems like there's a negative correlation between how much you are running motion and how many plays you're

7:44getting in just because if you're doing at the snap motion, you're probably snapping the ball with less time left, right? Like there's like the QB has to

7:52diagnose things, then you send in a guy in motion. So it just naturally ends up in a way uh where you are snapping the

7:58ball like kind of right at the end of it, which is why like Mike McDaniel offenses have historically been a little

8:02bit slower. Same with Laflur. Uh but obviously they kind of mask that by just being more efficient per play. So we

8:09would just obviously want uh more efficiency altogether. But it's interesting how that kind of correlates because like Kell Moore is another one

8:15where he runs so fast that you would look at a chart where it's like he's not doing enough motion and not enough play

8:20action. But Kell Moore is kind of like the I wouldn't call him the exception to the rule, but he's somebody where he's

8:25not always going to be in the the top right of those charts that uh I still kind of want to follow his offense as a

8:30north star, at least the passing game.

8:32Yeah, that's an awesome point to bring up. Uh Pat Thorman at ETR has his pace article out uh in the last couple of

8:40days that's also super worth people checking out. Uh because yeah, you're right. Very often there's a push and pull between how much especially like

8:48pre- snap motion you can do versus how fast is the offense actually playing, how many plays are we getting. Uh and

8:55yeah, that it's important to think about. Um, I think for that reason, the motion cheat code much more often applies to an individual player uh than

9:06necessarily an entire offense, right?

9:10Uh, just because if you don't have enough plays in an offense because you're spending all this time on motion, yeah, maybe your secondary and tertiary

9:18fantasy options aren't necessarily going to be there. Uh the Chargers totally come to mind as a team like that this year where there are a lot of guys

9:28getting drafted like in baseball super late your David and Jookus Katon Mitchells like all these other pieces on the Chargers offense that are getting

9:35drafted where it's like they may not run enough plays to actually support fantasy relevant uh just snap amounts for everybody here, right? you're kind of

9:46really wi with with these offenses, and this has been the case for like Kyle Shanahan's offenses as well, you're trying to pick a winner. Uh you're

9:53trying to pick the guy that's going to get like the huge efficiency gains that might come at the expense of either

9:59other receivers not being on the field, the offense not running as fast in general. I think generally efficiency wins out over pace uh for like the

10:09actually good offenses. But yeah, it is something to keep in mind for sure. Uh, and yeah, I think we'll probably touch

10:15on pace for a at least a couple of these play callers here today.

10:19>> Yeah, it's one of those things where I want one or the other. You know, if you're not going to have all of the the

10:24shiny bells and whistles, like at least get up to the line and call some more plays. Uh, but let's let's start with

10:28the the Dolphins. Well, or not the the Dolphins, of course, McDaniel goes from the Dolphins to the Chargers.

10:35and they're interesting and and it's a good point you bring up where it's going to juice the offense from an efficiency

10:40standpoint, but when the plays are down, it was kind of like Seattle last year where JSN gets super juiced, but then

10:46nobody else really like it wasn't there wasn't enough Shahed. Horton was never a guy you were starting. Uh Cooper Cup is

10:52washed at this point. Like AJ Barner was a fun baseball pick and then the backfield was a headache. So it really

10:56was like JSN crushed. Darnold was a kind of a fun late round guy and then that was it. Where are we at? I I I just want

11:03let's actually just narrow in on a on a player take just to start it off because he he's been so interesting to me.

11:08Somebody I'm starting to come around on where uh you log in to underdog or whatever drafting app you are on and you

11:15see Amarian Hampton going at like the 202 and it's definitely some sticker shock. You know what I mean? It's like my god. Uh for a guy that played

11:23part-time last year, uh awesome prospect, no doubt, but you are you are essentially you're taking over Derrick Henry. you are taking him uh in like

11:32literally interchangeably with Saquon, with Ashen Genty, players who feel a little more high pedigree. How are you looking at Marian Hampton, the marriage

11:41of Mike McDaniel, uh and just the Chargers offense in general? Because it's kind of important, like we just said, like we don't want to just by

11:48default push everybody up and be like, "All right, just draft all the Chargers." Uh but it is really exciting.

11:54>> Yeah. So, Hampton was the one. It took me kind of the longest to figure out what I actually thought of because I I

12:00agree. I kind of went through that initial sticker shock. Uh the original version of my Hampton blurb in this article was like nitpicking him along a

12:10bunch of different axes. Uh in terms of Katon Mitchell, like is he actually a good fit in a zone scheme uh that Mike

12:18McDaniel likes to run? Uh could this actually just be a committee like it kind of was with Kamani Vidal? Like I I

12:24went through all that, but ultimately I footnoted all of it. I said, "This is clearly overthinking." Like it it didn't convince me even writing a thousand

12:33words in that direction. So I kind of came back around to the Hampton take, which is for me, Mike McDaniel has had

12:42some of the most valuable backfields in the NFL basically the entire time that he has been a play caller or a coach. uh

12:5020 over 25 total backfield expected fantasy points per game over his career.

12:56So that's just total backfield volume.

12:58Uh XFP expected fantasy points. That's a stat I will cite a lot for anyone not familiar. Um so that that's going to be

13:07great. The backfield overall will be valuable before we get to how it's split up. Very likely. Uh that's what we can

13:14expect. He throws to his running backs.

13:16He runs a good amount. He uses them inside the 10 yard line, gets gets us all the fantasy friendly stuff that we

13:23tend to want, right? Uh and we look back at McDaniel's history and it's like, well, yeah, I think we have a margin for

13:32error here, even if another Chargers running back is somewhat involved if Katon Mitchell gets his gadget plays or what have you. Uh it was only a few

13:40years ago in 2023 that McDaniel literally had two fantasy RB1s on the same team. Uh Raheem Oster and rookie Devon Achan both averaged over 17

13:50fantasy points per game. They were both top five running backs that year even.

13:55Uh so to me it's like this is the most one of the most valuable backfields uh in terms of a play caller. It's Marian

14:03Hampton who is a first round talent that was I I would say up and down in his rookie year but did show like some real

14:11bellcow upside. Uh, one stat I like is that he had four games above a 75% snap share, which is more than guys like

14:17Chase Brown, Jamir Gibbs, Ken Walker, Dererick Henry. Like, he did show us that, yeah, this guy can just play every down, every snap, uh, and produce for

14:27fantasy. So, that's really what we want to see. Uh, I'm in on Hampton in round two. I Yeah, I understand all the

14:35nitpicks that people make around it, but I just didn't find any of them that convincing.

14:39>> Yeah, I I like that call a lot. And I'll probably backtrack the idea that I was kind of saying with Clint Kubak because

14:45you make a good point that McDaniel's backfield have just been a gold mine. So I think that he's worth drafting. I

14:50think if if I'm not the biggest Kian Mitchell guy in the world, but you can talk me into the Keon Mitchell stuff. I

14:54know that his price is getting a little bit outrageous at at points, but you just want to draft the running backs

14:59here. But I also think it makes a decent point that like you were saying, when there's not going to be as many snaps to

15:04go around, you definitely have to be I think definitely very cognizant of the pass catchers here. Um I know you've you've

15:12said many great things about Lad Mani uh across the board here. It's it's it's no secret that you're on Lad Mankey, but I

15:19I guess is it just as simple as the pre- snap motion? This guy McDaniel is just going to key in on Lad Mani as his I

15:26don't know. I don't want a one for one.

15:28Obviously, Lad isn't quite Tyreek Hill, but you get what I'm saying. The the kind of like chess piece in his offense.

15:33Uh it's very easy to see the the marriage of these two skill sets.

15:36Despite Lad having a pretty poor year last year, uh his ADP doesn't really reflect that. Like the market is very in.

15:44>> Yeah, that's basically where I'm at. Um, and yeah, of of course the caveat is you are very much paying for this or at

15:51least paying for my perspective somewhat if you're drafting lad on some of the sharper platforms like underdog right now. Uh, but yeah, I just look at this

16:00offense. I think Mike McDaniel is a smart coach. I think he understands that Lad Mcconi is just from a skill set

16:09perspective the most complete receiver here. Uh, he is great on the shorter routes. uh should benefit from McDaniel wanting to kind of get the ball out of

16:19Herbert's hands quicker. Uh I think he can really eat on those routes that Keenan Allen was kind of cannibalizing a lot last year. I think Lad is a super

16:27underrated downfield threat as well. Uh by yards per run on go routes. Manki is fourth best over the past four seasons

16:35just ahead of Tyreek Hill which is a crazy stat. Uh it gets even better when the Chargers tackles have been healthy

16:42over the past two seasons. So yeah, I really believe in just chalk up lads year 2 in efficiency to a Keenan Allen

16:51like Hall of Fame level target earner that was just constantly coming in on third down, spreading the offense out, spreading the target distribution out.

16:59Uh and yeah, that the tackles not being healthy. Um making it so that he's not able to get that efficient downfield

17:06stuff that was really there in his rookie season. I think all of it just comes back at once. Lad is right back in

17:13the conversation as a fantasy wide receiver one. Uh Daniel Pauper agrees with me. He made the exact same like Tyreek Hill lad mcconi comparison that I

17:22felt a little crazy for like a day after I had written it on the page. So that made me feel good. Um, but yeah, that

17:29that is really the bet you're making with the Chargers is they're going to be so efficient and all of the efficiency

17:35gains will kind of filter up to the top of the distribution, right? To Omar and Hampton, to Lad McConi, uh, and it kind

17:44of ices everybody else out in ter both in terms of pace and in terms of actual snapshare, uh, is the bet I'm making.

17:51But yeah, if if you're of the opinion like that this could be more of a rotation, if you're like a huge Trey

17:57Harris guy, Brennan Thompson, if you think all of these players are going to meaningfully rotate in uh and cut into like Lad and everybody else's snapshare,

18:06I I would understand uh that Chargers take. It's just not mine.

18:12>> Yeah, I I I agree. My my hope is that they do more of the rotation stuff with uh QJ and Trey Harris and uh you know,

18:19we don't even have to really touch on the tight ends, but I think the tight ends definitely get the short end of the

18:23stick a little bit. Just so many of them and whatever they want to do between Kohler and Jooku Gadston. Uh I'm going

18:29to uh kind of just assume from our conversation that McDaniel is a big positive for the Chargers getting a rid of Greg Roman. Uh and I do want to move

18:37on to the Raiders. Honestly, just going to kind of bounce around and see what sticks out to me. But the Raiders are

18:42the next one that is most interesting because Kubiaak had a really interesting like four game stre uh stretch with the Saints. Then he goes to the Seahawks and

18:52like we're all like, "All right, this is going to be like kind of fun and we're all kind of zoomed in on Kenneth Walker

18:56and what's going to be a run first offense." And then Kenneth Walker, you know, has the year he does and then

19:02JSN kills us all. uh not kills us all.

19:06Like I I had I thankfully had him in my home league where like my buddies were using my rankings that weren't big into

19:11JSN. Uh I I'm curious, what do we think about Kubak? Uh coming to the Raiders, uh this is a team where when you look at

19:19Vegas projections, I know that people are kind of up and down on Vegas projections these days. Uh, but I think if you zoom out away from player props

19:26and you just go with the look aheadlines, their offense is projected to have the 28th implied point total by Vegas, which that seems like a pretty

19:34big bet against Kubak. Uh, I I'm curious what do you think about that? What are the expectations for Kubak in this

19:41offense? Is this going to just be, you know, he's going to revive the se the uh the Raiders and bring them to a Super

19:45Bowl? Uh, what are kind of your expectations here in year one for Kubak?

19:50>> Yeah, first I can't resist. I want to comment on the the Vegas lines thing. Um I agree that yeah, for individual player

19:58props, I don't find those useful at all to like check fantasy takes against. Uh we're we're drafting for ceiling. We're not drafting for median. Uh they're

20:06they're not efficient lines generally anyway. Um but yeah, the as you mentioned, the overall implied point per game totals or win totals have been very

20:15directionally accurate. Uh especially at kind of the top and the bottom end.

20:19Vegas does know what they're talking about uh to to a pretty good extent there from the team level. Um so yeah,

20:26that does make a Raiders bet kind of scary. I would agree. Uh but what I'd say to that in terms of what can Kubak

20:34do here is what we've seen from his offenses is every single place that he's gone uh going back to the 2021 Vikings,

20:43but also the 2024 Saints last year Seahawks. uh Vegas has generally been down on and also uh people have generally been down on their offensive

20:55lines uh and seen that as like a big limiting factor of what these offenses can do. Uh but pretty much every single

21:02time his offenses have overperformed expectation, at least relative to that, right? Uh I' I've had the tweet out, but yeah, if you just compare like the

21:12preseason O line ranks completely like consolidated between sources uh to what these offenses actually did in terms of EPA per play and efficiency, it they

21:22they've vastly overperformed. Like Kubak has just overcome subpar personnel uh just kind of overall on his offenses. So yeah, if you're going to make a bet on

21:32any of like the bottom six teams in Vegas implied point total, I I think it would be the Raiders for me. It would be

21:39Kubak. Uh that that I think is maybe a limiting factor on how many guys you should necessarily be in on or draft. Um

21:48I I've been kind of back and forth on Brock Bowers and managed, but the guy that I'm really really in on is Ashton

21:56Genty. Uh and and I think the the Ken Walker performance in the Super Bowl in the playoffs without Charbanet would be

22:04like exhibit A for me there. Uh everywhere else Kubak's been it's it's been total three down Bellcow for guys like Wash Alvin Chimera, Dalvin Cook,

22:13Alexander Madison, uh of course Christian McAffrey in the time he spent with the 49ers. So I look at this Raiders roster and there there is no

22:22Zack Charbanet. There is no guy that can even defensively cut into Gent's workload. Kouak himself has said basically the same thing in so many

22:31words. Uh so I am very much in on Ashen Genty at the one two turn. Um Bowers I'm intrigued by. Uh Kouak certainly can do

22:41the efficient play action stuff. I do think the Raiders are going to try to be like as slow and runheavy as they

22:46possibly can get away with this year. So that that is like what makes me lean a little more toward Genty if I just have

22:52to pick one. Uh which yeah, you probably should on an offense with this low of a Vegas projection. I do want to touch on

22:59I I uh was reading through the article and I this is the first bit of analysis I've seen on Trey Tucker this year. Uh

23:06which is so so uh Ryan Heath in terms of just going deep on on it all. Uh where what's going on with Trey Tucker?

23:15What are are we uh interested in baseball? Um I'm shocked that Kubak is like babe dropping him. Uh what what did

23:25you find on Trey Tucker?

23:28>> Yeah, so Kubiaak uh just when asked about like oh what what wide receivers have stood out uh so far? Trey Tucker is

23:36the first name out of his mouth. uh separately he was asked about like what what can the veterans do that are on the

23:43roster that uh that yeah what can the veterans do basically and he named Trey Tucker along with Max Crosby, Colton Miller and Kurt Cousins who's going to

23:54be their week one starter. So, it's like Tuck Tucker doesn't really fit in that group, I think, by most uh metrics or

24:02like uh yeah, most people's conceptions, but that that really stood out to me that he kind of held Tucker in that high

24:08esteem with Crosby and Miller with with like these Pro Bowl level talents. Uh so, beyond that, like really the bet with Tucker and with any Clint Kubak

24:18receiver is we want the guy that's getting targeted downfield on play action. uh the past couple years uh he's had two of the top five receivers just

24:28in fantasy points per game on those plays. JSN leads everybody last year in deep play action uh over five fantasy points per game there. Uh and then

24:38Rasheed Shahed with the Saints uh when Derek Carr was healthy was also top five. So that's kind of what you're chasing. Uh Tucker was used a lot on

24:48deep play action last year. his airyard share nearly doubled when the Raiders rarely did use play action. Uh and and he just has like more of a history of

24:57actual production and like doing stuff in the league than Jaylen Naylor does who who is kind of like the popular best

25:03guy uh on the Raiders right now. So yeah, this was just very much a best only take for me. I I don't think Trey

25:10Tucker matters in managed. Uh this shouldn't talk you out of Brock Bowers like I let Tory Horton talk me out of

25:16being insanely big on JSN last year. So, but yeah, ju just kind of a fun little note for the baseball sickos.

25:23>> Yeah, I I like it. Naylor is going ahead of Trey Tucker right now. I can't say I'm drafting much of either, but I'll

25:28shrink I'll sprinkle in some Trey Tucker. Uh pretty much like a just to kind of put a bow on the Kubak thing.

25:34He's going to run more play action.

25:36Little bit slower, but we're going to see more efficient, better play action.

25:38And then also, he's just seemed to get the most out of his offensive lines. Um I I do want to touch on the QB

25:45situation. are you touching cuz like neither are like obviously we're not drafting Fernando Mendoza in a managed league but uh in baseball is there

25:53anything there that you like with him like I could see a world where he steps onto the field maybe not quite quite the

25:58Straoud rookie year but you I could see him coming in uh and being like very efficient I guess like similar to what

26:04Darnold was last year like almost damn near identical to what Darnold was now that I'm thinking through it. Uh, but I

26:10guess just in terms of like sustaining this offense cuz the quarterback does matter. If Cousins is just straight up unplayable and then Mendoza looks like

26:16Cam Ward last year, uh, that probably, now that I'm thinking through it, that's probably where the implied total uh, really craters is like when we have, you

26:23know, if we get like eight games of Cousins and then Mendoza is like Bryce Young level bad.

26:30>> So, I I'll debut a take that honestly I just brain blasted on this morning that's not even in the article. Uh I I

26:37think we see Mendoza sooner than later.

26:40Yeah.

26:40>> Uh the and the reason for that is everything I just said about play action with Kubak and how that is such a

26:47efficient piece of his offense that's so important.

26:50>> Uh that often requires you want the quarterback to be able to play under center um and to have kind of the

26:57moveability and mobility to turn like turn his back to the defense uh and and just work through the snap in that way.

27:04Kirk Cousins has not gone under center very much uh over the past couple of seasons since he tore his Achilles and

27:12we saw uh we we saw Zack Robinson uh turn to Michael Penn for basically that reason over the past couple years. Not

27:19that he was able to do it either. Uh but that to me is kind of intriguing. Like if we get a couple weeks in and Kubak is

27:25like damn I just have I am like so limited by Cousins having to be in the shotgun or not being able to actually

27:31run an under center offense. Uh, I I could see them throwing Mendoza in there like pretty quickly and I I'm like

27:40generally optimistic on what will happen there. I don't think it'll be fantasy relevant. Um, Sam Darnold was not really fantasy relevant last year, but yeah.

27:48Yeah, like in baseball I I am I don't mind Mendoza uh or just adding him to my Raiders stacks. That's mostly a three

27:56quarterback build thing. Um, but yeah, yeah, I'm pretty optimistic in terms of we'll we'll see him by like week four or

28:03week five would be my current prediction.

28:06>> Yeah, that was a selfish question because I continue to take him where he's so much cheaper than every other quarterback. It seems like like he's

28:13right there with Rogers uh in this meta where like this is like getting deep in the we on underdog, but when QB is

28:19getting pushed up so much and like three quarterback builds are so invoked like you can just take Mendoza for free. Like

28:24there's been multiple times where I panic and like I whiff on the Straoud stack and I whiff on the Cam Ward Stra

28:29stack and it's like all right I'll go Fernando Mendoza and figure it out later because I do think especially like when

28:34we think through uh baseball of like not going to play early but I I'm pretty confident he plays week 15 16 17 when it

28:42all matters. But >> uh I do want to bring us to the Eagles.

28:46You talk about getting under center with Kurt Cousins and again not to speak for you'll put a positive on Kubiaak. How

28:52could he just won a Super Bowl as the OC? Um, Manion's a tough one cuz he's one of these guys that's definitely like

28:58more of a mystery uh than anything else.

29:00I'm curious how you see him in terms of like being a a positive or mixer. I guess like coming from Pulo, it's really

29:05anything's a positive at this point. Uh, but what are you expecting from Manion uh in terms of like what he brings to

29:11this offense? Like I don't even I can't really even pin down what tree he's a part of. Um, what what do you got on

29:17Shawn Manion?

29:19>> Uh, so in in terms of Yeah. like his tree DNA. Uh I would maybe controversially just put him into the

29:27McShan tree. Uh he played under Shawn McVey for two years. He coached under Matt Lafleur with the Packers, another

29:36uh McVey disciple for the past two seasons. Uh most of the things that he's saying about his offense sound very Mc

29:44Shanahanian to me. So that that's kind of where I would just mentally map him.

29:49uh in terms of whether he'll be any good or what my take on him is, uh I think I'm generally more positive than most

29:57other people, uh the like the biggest thing in the discourse right now is especially with uh the draft picks that the Eagles made is like, wow, is Shawn

30:06Manion going to try to force uh Jaylen Herz to actually throw over the middle of the field and get under center and

30:12use play action and do do all these uh like McVey type of things. And I think the answer is yes, but I also am open to

30:22it actually working. I if we can get s as into the weeds on this as you want, but Jaylen Herz has actually been very

30:29good targeting the middle of the field.

30:30He does it at one of the lowest rates, but he's been one of the most efficient quarterbacks at doing it. Uh, and it's

30:37not only when there is like a wide openen receiver or a busted coverage.

30:41He's like fairly average in open target rate to the middle of the field uh over his career. So, all the reporting uh

30:49from Jeremy Fowler and other sources is that Herz has actually bought into we're changing the offense pretty significantly this year. We're going to

30:58get under center more uh which is broadly more efficient across the league. So, I do kind of think that this could work. I'm fairly optimistic on the

31:07Eagles passing game overall on Manion.

31:10Of course, with any first-time play caller, there's more uncertainty, but just kind of reading the tea leaves and like what Eagles players are saying

31:18about Manion, uh, calling him an evil genius and all of the other things, right? Uh, compared to the the total lack of praise that was being offered

31:28for Kevin Patulo last summer, uh, and even comparing to all the praise Kellen Moore got uh, in the summer of 2024.

31:36Yeah, I'm actually pretty optimistic on Manion. I think it's more likely that this works out than it doesn't. So yeah, that makes me pretty in on just the

31:44Eagles passing game in general.

31:47>> Yeah, it's the Eagles are so tough for me to pin down cuz when you kind of zoom out and you look at Manion, it's like

31:53he's going to be a clear upgrade. Uh I think you touch on a really interesting point of like Herz can do it, but he

31:59hasn't done it at a high rate. Even if you just kind of force him to be uncomfortable and do it more, that's

32:04probably a positive. Uh, and that's just like under center and horizontal inbreaking routes over the middle of the field. So, that should help. I think

32:12Manion's also just like a better uh I guess just like point blank common sense play caller than Kevin Patulo. Uh, Siri

32:20is so interesting where I don't know whether to give him credit or not, but he's definitely like a born on third

32:26base style head coach where this roster is, you know, he's had Howy Roseman constructing this roster, but his offense is ranked in points per game is

32:3412th, third, seventh, seventh, and then last year was 19th. This is probably one of those years where it bounces back, right, when we got Kell Moore and then

32:40everybody kind of eight. Uh, I I find myself actually drafting more Saquon than I want where when you zoom out, you

32:46look at the implied points, they're going to be top 15. their offensive line is top five by like every rankings metric. Um I I did see you mention

32:55something I wanted to pick your brain on is like I don't know I start to tell myself and I think it's just more like

33:02self-indulging than it's actually going to happen. You can start to paint the upside case that the kid who caught 90 balls as a rookie could now get back

33:11into the range of 50 plus balls after AJ Brown leaves and you inject Manion in here. Uh, but you bring up a good point

33:19that like he comes from the Packers who, uh, Josh Jacobs was kind of similar in a way, not, you know, to the extent that

33:26Saquon can catch passes, but out of Alabama, uh, almost like similar to Mixon, like you can go down this list of

33:32guys who caught balls really well in college and then in the NFL, their play college decided no [clears throat] thanks. Josh Jacobs is on that list. Joe

33:38Mixon is on that list and kind of Sequin on the Eagles is now on that list. Um, so it sucks. I would love to see Saquon

33:45catch 50 plus balls. like that's really what he's missing. If not, he needs to rush for 2,000 yards to become a 20 plus

33:51point per game scorer. Uh so where are you at there? Like I I we're we're talking about that and then also uh you

33:58reference I appreciate uh my tweet making the article of the under center stuff with Saquon, but like at the end of the day when we talk about these play

34:05action things and under center and all of that, it's still you know under center like what are we realistically hoping for? Like probably I don't know.

34:11I'm throwing a number out of thin air but like 50% of the plays, you know, something like that. So, it's not like

34:15not every down can be under center. Not every down can be play action. So, there's still going to be inefficient touches that Saquon's absorbing, you

34:22know.

34:23>> Yeah. And I I first I want to say you you had some awesome tweets on Saquon Barkley that made me like look deeper

34:28into uh him and kind of this angle for the article. So, yeah, I super appreciated uh what you brought to light

34:35there. Uh I I think you're exactly right on the rushing efficiency. I I do think that un the whole point of going under

34:43center is that you're more effectively marrying the pass and the run games like uh everything can look like it can be

34:49either a run or a pass and it it could be either result uh that the defense has to account for from under center, right?

34:56Uh so that that's just positive uh from a efficiency on the ground standpoint for Squan. Uh but yeah, where I guess

35:05where I am not quite as allin on Saquon for fantasy is like rushing efficiency is super overrated in general. Like if

35:14Saquon goes from 4 and 1/2 yards per carry to 5 yards per carry, that's not like a huge fantasy points per game

35:20increase, right? Uh where we really make our money in fantasy in in PPR formats certainly. Yeah, it is the target shares. Um, and yeah, I mean, Barkley

35:31had the highest running back target share that a Jaylen Herz running back has ever had last year at 10.7%. Could that go up a little more with AJ Brown?

35:41I Yeah, I think it's possible, but they add other pass catchers to the offense.

35:46Uh, we kind of hear every year that like running back X is going to be more involved in the passing game. That's

35:52like every beat writer's favorite thing to say in June. So, I don't know. I'm I'm just not fully convinced. Uh I I

35:59think there's probably something about Jaylen Herz where he's not as uh frequently targeting the running back.

36:05Uh we we saw Saquon have like really great pass catching seasons early in his career as you mentioned. But yeah, I

36:12think probably those forces are a little bit stronger. Um but it it's made me ju just this thought experiment has made me

36:19like not be totally out on Saquon uh in round two. Like I I think he's kind of fine where he goes. Um, I I'm gonna

36:25prefer like Omar and Hampton as a bet.

36:28I'm gonna prefer Chase Brown as a bet.

36:30Uh, but yeah, I think there's a world where he takes a step forward as a pass catcher for sure.

36:36>> I like that. I like that. I I'm taking too much of him. Uh, where I just have kind of just defaulted to him where it's

36:41like, uh, it's the Eagles, it's Saquon Barkley. Uh my my push back would be not to you but to a manion is like if Herz

36:49doesn't want to dump down to Saquon, let him let him give him like a two-yard A dot this year and see what happens, man.

36:54Like and I hate to be the guy who's like caping up for Saquon, but just like he's very much especially like the ages of me

37:00and you of this is somebody we saw at Penn State and then on the Giants and it's just like he's a special talent.

37:06Like he he's not Nick Chub. Let's let's let's let him uh you know spread his wings a little I will say the last thing

37:11I want to pick your brain on with this offense as we talk about middle of the field targets. Where are they going?

37:15Because I like reading through this article, I did a do not draft video yesterday and rarely somebody like me who loves the

37:24rookies, like I'll slap it up with the best of them when it comes to the rookies, but uh Mai Lemon's been one

37:29that I've really struggled to take, especially on underdog where it's half PPR and he's a pushed up into a range where like his production or like his

37:36projections just don't really match. I think we're still going to see with Manion or I would say like most likely we're going to see with Manion a world

37:42where uh they're still going to be very runheavy. Like they're still going to probably be like bottom five in pass attempts. So are we taking like of

37:50course like Dvonte Smith he's going to get worked in the slot. He's going to have plenty of stuff. Like I think we're

37:54all fine with Devonte Smith but between like Goddard Mai Lemon Stowers and then I'll throw a little wrench in this question as well. I'm throwing a lot at

38:02you here of like Stoers has the backup or like the quarterback background.

38:07Manion's a new play call. Are we going to like is are tush pushes going to take away the touchdown upside still that

38:12they have been? Do we think the tush pushes get scaled back? Do we think Stoers or Cole Payton score like five

38:18rushing touchdowns? How are you kind of deciphering it all between who are the who is going to take the middle of the

38:23field targets outside of Devonte Smith?

38:26Uh and then how do the touchdowns get distributed?

38:29>> Yeah, I'll say the the two Eagles pass catchers I'm most in on at ADP are Devonte Smith and Dallas Goddard. Uh,

38:36and that that's largely because >> both of them have uh been targeted over the middle of the field at decent rates

38:43in the past by Hertz. And also, I just have zero playing time concerns with those two. They're going to be out there

38:49uh for effectively every route. Um, with Lemon, I'm not drafting him more than likely in like managed reddraft. Uh, when you get like the stack of him and

39:00Herz at the six, seven turn in best baseball, I will do that sometimes. I I don't know that anyone needs to care

39:06about that. That's just more of a underdog specific structural thing for me. Um but yeah, I I tend to worry about

39:15like a some some sort of like a route split between Sters's uh Lemon and Dantavian Wix. Uh because Wix on the

39:24Packers with Shawn Manion like did force a really annoying wide receiver rotation for years with like really talented receivers that we liked there, right? Uh

39:35where they Yeah, Wix would just constantly play 30 to 40% of the routes.

39:39It would ruin Jaden Reed. It would ruin Christian Watson for so many years that they're now free of. So yeah, I I am a

39:45little wary of a similar thing happening with the Eagles. uh at least like early in the season uh particularly for Lemon.

39:53Um so yeah, I I don't know if that fully answers your question, but yeah, it's mainly Devonte Smith, Dallas Goddard for

39:59me that I am trying to make my bets on.

40:02>> And then you have you have a tush push take?

40:05>> Oh, uh I don't have a tush push take. Uh Jacob Sanderson I thought had a great Cole Payton tush push take back in the

40:12NFL draft. Uh >> uh CFL.

40:15>> Yeah. where he um at North Dakota State they would do they would do that with Cole Payton a lot apparently. So I don't

40:24know. I maybe there's like a 5% chance that Cole Payton gets in on some of those and like steals a few TDs away

40:32from Jaylen Herz. I I'm not really factoring that in a ton. Um but it would be it would be pretty big egg on my face

40:38if that did happen. That would be pretty funny. Um and would be a great call by Jacob. So yeah, that's >> there's just ways up

40:46>> there's ways where like the this is a good offense that scores points and the touchdowns go away from the guys we want

40:50them to. Uh which is like kind of been the case with like Jaylen Herz rushing TD totals and then AJ Brown never

40:56hitting like double digits and uh all of that. Now if I was a good host I would have done Kubak Raiders to Seattle

41:02Flory. Uh Brian Flory comes in here which I'll be honest with you until he got named the guy I have never heard of

41:09this guy in my life. Um he has been it seems like he has been firm that he just wants to keep everything the same. But I

41:16think it's really tough to just like it's like if somebody came in after Kyle Shanahan on the Niners and was like yeah

41:21I'm just going to keep we're just going to run the Shanahan offense. Uh and it's just like not quite that easy. So uh I'm

41:28not going to put the uh pressure on you right out the gate. I did see you had a JSN take uh that hit my timeline that

41:34was like and I kind of I kind of like I don't hate it. Um where are you at on the Seahawks? like can they just

41:41replicate what they did last year? Can we just, you know, run it all back? Can everybody uh can they score points? Can

41:47the offensive line play well? Uh what do you see with Brian Flory?

41:51>> Yeah, I mean the the biggest overarching thing is yeah, it's going to be really hard to replicate what they did last

41:57year and specifically what JSN did last year uh from a bunch of different angles that I can get into uh with Flurry

42:05overall. Yeah, I I'd be lying if I didn't say that when I'm reading basically every Flurry quote is is like, "We're going to have the same offense.

42:14I'm not changing anything. It'll be really similar to the one that just won the Super Bowl." Like, I don't blame the

42:19guy. I don't really know what else you're going to say. But I also just got the same like awful vibe that I did

42:25reading uh every Kevin Patulo quote last year when they were coming off a Super Bowl and he would not say he was going

42:32to change anything significant. Like to me, I I almost want like a play caller that has a chip on his shoulder that

42:38will say, "Yeah, my stuff is actually even better and it's going to be great.

42:41You like you'll see and like take that moment to like gas himself up." But I I don't know. Maybe maybe that's like an

42:48unfair judgment to put on him. But yeah, when we get into like the actual hard numbers, uh the quotes that we do have

42:55from Flurry, uh it sounds like the biggest difference could be that he wants to bring up the rate of during snap motion. Uh which in theory is a

43:06positive. That's like a thing that I want to hear a play caller say, right?

43:09Uh so there's definitely a world where this just kind of works. It slots in one for one. the the Seahawks continue

43:17having this very efficient offense, uh it it wouldn't like totally shock me.

43:23But when it comes to fantasy football and like really just whether we're in on JSN in the first round, that's where I

43:32start to get a little bit squeamish. Uh because as we mentioned earlier, yeah, one of the biggest uh Clint Koviaak specific cheat codes has been the

43:41downfield play action among the most efficient in the NFL. It totally made uh JSN's season last year uh that plus the

43:50marriage of Sam Darnold playing absolutely out of his mind on these deep play action attempts uh ju just is basically what created most of JSN's big

44:00plays, most of his fantasy points last year. So Darnold was first out of 149 quarterbacks over the past 5 years in

44:09highly accurate throw rate on attempts of 20 plus yards downfield, which we chart at fantasy points data. That is going to be extremely hard to maintain.

44:19And on those plays, JSN scored literally 26% of his fantasy points on the season uh on just 16 targets. Half of them were

44:28the deep play action. Uh, and I just kind of go through in the article looking at this from a bunch of

44:33different angles, looking at receivers that uh, were at 18 plus points per game, but scored this much on these highly accurate deep balls. Uh, most of

44:44the time that regressed a lot year-over-year.

44:47uh the the average was went down to 36 fantasy points on those plays in the following season, up from uh the

44:55original average of 79 fantasy points on those deep uh highly accurate plays. So, it's it's just really hard to maintain year-over-year. Uh JSN also had some of

45:06the lowest red zone target volume of any elite wide receiver one that we've seen over the past several years. One thing

45:12we do have from Flurry is that uh when he's in the red zone, he really wants a strong rushing attack. That that's what

45:20he thinks successful red zone offenses are built on is the running game in spreading the field out more. Uh so like

45:28all all of that makes me nervous too in terms of I I don't know just last year JSN averaged one red zone target per

45:34game. Uh that was like the fourth fewest of any elite wide receiver one that we've seen. if the pass rate doesn't

45:42come up, if the defense isn't worse, uh, and if we're not throwing more in the red zone, like it's just going to be

45:48really hard to replicate the insane year that JSN had. He was five points above his volume based expectation uh, for us

45:56at Fantasy Points, uh, XFP, just the wide receiver, seven by volume. Uh, so it's, yeah, it's just a little bit rough

46:04to me to have to draft him fifth overall uh, ahead of somebody like Almond Ross St. Brown who you've just been able to

46:12completely bank a wide receiver one finish for every single year kind of no matter what. Uh so yeah, he's he's someone that I think I'm fading in round

46:21one. Not so much of an indictment on Flurry, but just a recognition that everything came together so perfectly last year, part of which was the play

46:30action deep shots with Koviak that I I just don't want to have to bet and like bag hold that all of it's going to work

46:37out the exact same way. Uh the way I'm wrong is if the Seahawks backfield isn't as effective, if their defense isn't as

46:44effective, if they just have to actually become a little more pass heavy. Uh that could be egg on my face. So it if you're

46:51of that persuasion, uh then maybe ignore everything I just said. But that that's where I'm at right now. I'm just not uh

46:57really buying into JSN.

47:00Yeah, I I find myself not loving to click his name at 105, but there's also this weird thing where there's just like

47:07nobody good after the top four in the first round. Like nobody that sticks out. Like I'm not stoked to draft McAffrey or JT. Uh I do actually want to

47:14touch on Aman Rain Brown will go to the Lions. They get Drew Petting who of course uh I guess it's like famous this

47:22McBride year last year is going to be like a trivia answer. Uh I I do those like BDG trivia uh style videos and this McBride year is

47:32I think it's like one of like five years ever with like 300 plus PPR points. Of course like unsustainable play volume.

47:39The the drop back totals were pretty nuts. I I I had a stat in yesterday's video of I think Michael Wilson had like

47:45an 84% route share but he had just one route less than Jamar Chase, the route leader in the NFL. So just like an

47:52absurd amount of plays last year for this team. uh he goes to the Lions and I guess I'll ask you because it you seem a

47:59little bit more negative on Aman Rosane Brown in the article but like also more of like pushing up Gibbs but not hurting

48:05Aman Ross St. Brown and then of course I think everyone's going to uh if you want to like just zoom out from macro it's

48:10like oh the McBride guy comes to Sam Laora Sam Laora going to crush this year. Um it's probably not quite that

48:15simple. Uh, but like what would you say was Drew Petting's I guess calling card identity? Because he's not going to be a

48:21guy who ends up in the top right a lot of these charts like the Kevin Oonnells and Shane Stikkins and uh Shanahans and

48:27I don't even really know what tree I would say Petting is from. Uh what do you what like cuz like the Cardinals

48:33offense the last few years like has been up and down and kind of whatever. Uh so like true petting on the Lions. Uh

48:40what's the expectation?

48:42Uh, first I I since I'm just like the coach like genealogy guy, I guess. Uh, he I I would call him the Kevin Stfansky

48:50tree. It's where Drew Pettson came from.

48:52>> I like that.

48:53>> Uh, but yeah, you're you're right that he's been a bit of a riddle. Uh, what's been a constant in his offenses is

49:01really, really strong rushing efficiency. Uh, despite honestly not like the most amazing personnel, right?

49:09Like Kyler Murray sure helps the run game out a little bit, but even if you control for scrambles, uh by yards per

49:14carry, Ping has been second best over the past five seasons behind only like what Todd Monin did with Derk Henry. Uh

49:22and and that's with like kind of back end of his career, James Connor, uh with a totally ridiculous cast of characters

49:28in their backfield last year. Uh so just really impressive run game efficiency and that that's like among like the ballnower types, the film types. That's

49:38what I always hear them praise petting for is like his run game design. So I feel really confident in that piece. Uh

49:45for Jamir Gibbs, he's my clear 101 overall. Uh we saw him deployed as an everyown Bellcow at the end of last

49:54season uh with Dan Campbell coming in and making that change himself. Uh and it was was great for us in fantasy. uh

50:02this off seasonason Campbell has basically uh reiterated the same that Gibbs is the bellcow now. So I yeah I I want uh Jir Gibbs, one of the best

50:11running backs in the league as a bellcow in a Drew Petting rushing attack for sure. Yes, please and thank you. Sign me

50:19up. That all of that sounds great. Uh but yeah, when it comes to the passing game, it's a little bit weirder. Uh Ping

50:27in his first couple seasons with the Cardinals was not a super pass heavy uh play caller, but of course, yeah, last

50:34year insane drop back volume uh with Jacobe Brassette with them falling behind constantly. So I I like that he was willing to do that and adapt when

50:43they just ran out of running backs. That was interesting and good to see. Uh so yeah, I kind of think this could be an

50:50effective marriage uh kind of with Ping uh and with Jared Goff and Dan Campbell.

50:56The biggest thing that's been lacking in Psing's passing games has been the motion use. Uh and that's like been a really big thing for the Lions over the

51:05last couple years. Uh Jared Goff is like 50% more efficient on dropbacks with motion. He's been one of the best users

51:12of it in the NFL. Uh what we saw last year with John Morton as the OC for the first nine or ten weeks is his motion

51:19rates uh were not really where the Lions wanted them to be. Dan Campbell steps in, says, "I'm going to do this myself."

51:26Uh and kind of fixed it. So, I think that's like your worst case is if the if it doesn't click immediately, if if the

51:34motion rates aren't uh up, if the offense isn't efficient through the air, uh then yeah, worst case is just going to step in and do and do what he needs

51:42to, which that's like what gives me more of the comfort in the Alman Ross St.

51:46Brown floor. Um but yeah, there there is like that angle of the all the Lions pass catchers have been way less

51:53efficient uh without drop back motion over the past handful of seasons. So it it's like in my mind, but I I think like

52:01just specifically this combination of Petting, Goff, and Campbell could work.

52:06Um so yeah, I I mean I rated Petting as like mixed as in terms of my play caller vibes overall for that reason, but I do

52:14I tend to think it's just going to work out for the players.

52:18Yeah, I I'm in the same boat. I I think last year I give a lot of credit to Dan Campbell where in the past it's been

52:24like is this guy just a meatthead, right? Like he's saying tear out people's kneecaps or whatever and then he takes over the play calling duties

52:31last year and he's so forward thinking that it's like, you know, he has this posterior of like a meatthead, but I

52:38think that his fingerprints are on all of it. All the trickery, all the motion stuff. He is so ahead of what you would

52:44think he's doing. Uh, and if there's anyone that could just like kind of physically impose himself and be like Drew Petting, like we're just going to

52:49run more motion. Like I don't really care what you did on the Cardinals, like we're just going to do 40% of the time

52:54motion whether you like it or not or else I will call the plays. Uh, so I'm kind of a believer there. We'll we'll

52:59put Mix down for the Lions. We'll put Mix down for the Seahawks. Now Ping leaves the Cardinals. They, interestingly enough, sign Mike Laflur,

53:10who used to be on my Jets. Uh it was very similar to the Tanner Angstrand situation where this was somebody that I

53:15thought was very promising. Uh and he gets the luck of having a Jets quarterback whether that's Justin Fields with Angstrand or whether that's Zach

53:22Wilson with Laflur and he inevitably becomes the fall guy. Uh he was a really fun play caller where I remember with

53:30Zach Wilson uh he would run like pony personnel before like anybody else was really trying this stuff out where he would have Bruce Hall and Michael Carter

53:37on the field at the same time doing really fun stuff there. Of course, Bree Hall before tearing his ACL, he just

53:42like completely was like, "All right, we're gonna give you all the targets, all the work, everything." Uh, and that was, you know, Bree Hall was an absolute

53:49monster over that stretch. So, I guess like what is the expectations for Laflur? I mean, he is very obviously from the Laflur McVey area. So, there is

53:57no there's no, you know, uh, ancestry that we need to trace back with Laflur.

54:02Uh, how are you feeling about the Cardinals? like they're they're another one like I just mentioned it with Trim McBride where they played so many snaps

54:07that it's like you have to kind of scale things back.

54:11>> Yeah. As you mentioned, that's the first thing is we we just can't expect last year's volume. Uh Rich Reebar hadn't had

54:18an awesome tweet that calculated that McBride basically ran 22 games worth of routes last year. That that's like not what we can expect at all. Uh at least

54:28on the surface, right? That's so that's like the common take on the Cardinals and I think that's probably true in like

54:3580% of the worlds that we live in. Uh you as you mentioned the pony personnel lafleur goes out and signs Tyler Algier

54:42uh drafts Jeremiah Love. Uh their other two their other two highest uh dollar free agent contracts and draft picks also spent on guards. So yeah, it on the

54:53surface it's like they probably want to be pretty runheavy, pretty slow paced.

54:58uh not not unlike what Matt Laflur does, right? I I think that's probably the intention. Um but it's worth remembering that yeah, when Mike Lafleur was with

55:09the Jets, uh when Zack Wilson was not the starting quarterback across 12 Mike White and Joe Flacco starts, uh they averaged over 300 passing yards per game

55:19on pretty insane drop back volume. They were top six in pass rate, in pace across those samples.

55:27he can kind of do it both. And if the Cardinals get in a situation again where their entire defense gets decimated, uh

55:36they have the lowest or I believe the lowest or one of the lowest implied win totals in the league. If they are

55:41actually just playing from behind constantly, I wouldn't put it past the flur to go more heavy drop back volume uh with Brassette or with Gardner Mchu.

55:51probably not to the extent of last year, but I I do think it's like in play for these Cardinal skill players. And that

55:57that just gives me like a little bit of interest in a Marvin Harrison Jr. Uh not really for anything that he's done in

56:04the NFL so far, but just for how amazing his prospect profile was. Uh how we have seen wide receivers take until year

56:12three to really break out in the NFL. Uh that's the most common breakout year over the past 20 seasons. Uh and in the

56:20sample that we got with uh Harrison starting with uh Jacobe Brassette and Trey McBride, uh in that three-game sample, Harrison averaged a higher first

56:30read target share than McBride did. He was up at 38% uh which would have ranked wide receiver 4 last year. So, we have

56:36seen glimpses of Harrison actually being like this alpha wide receiver target earner um that he was promised to be coming into the NFL

56:46in that like yeah that 20% world where the Cardinals are actually higher drop back volume this year. I would want like

56:54some Marvin Harrison Jr. on my team. Um but yeah, it it's like a little bit of a thin bet. It might be more of just like

57:01a best ball portfolio thing than a guy that I'm clicking a ton in managed reddraft. Um, but yeah, just worth thinking about and worth like tracking I

57:10think during the season. Uh, just based on how the Cardinals defense is holding up. Um, yeah. Anything else on the Cardinals you want to talk about? Uh,

57:19Jeremiah Love I'm like decently optimistic on in terms of I I think he probably plays a lot pretty early.

57:25That's what we saw with rookie Bree Hall. uh as Lafleur brought him along pretty quickly, was using him on 20 plus

57:32touches per game by week four uh in his rookie season. Um it it's really just how much belief you have in the offense

57:39of whether that's worth a pick at the two three turn. I I tend to be m maybe leaning a little negative there, but

57:46I've been swayed back and forth this offseason on him. So yeah, I guess those are mostly my Cardinal thoughts.

57:52>> Yeah, I I've been pushing up Jeremiah Love. I've been getting crushed for it.

57:56Nobody. That's the thing. I think when we kind of like look at the is this like a positive or negative or mixed. I I

58:04think it's pretty fair that it's probably mixed where Ping had his good stuff. Where I was looking at it, he's 10th in EPA per rush over his tenure

58:11with the Cardinals, which is like pretty amazing considering them never really having an offensive line or a a running back outside of like James Connor. Uh

58:19but then the four coming in, you're hoping for some more modern concepts and more fun with like motion and stuff.

58:24But, uh, even in like your chart, it seems like I don't know how much of it's McVey, right? Cuz like who's actually

58:28calling the plays when he's over there with the Rams or whatever. Um, but he's definitely not in like the the upper

58:32right of the play action and drop back motion stuff. So, it's up in the air.

58:36Nobody wants the Cardinals. They're going to probably be fighting for the first overall pick. Uh, and I'll also throw it to you with the Miami Dolphins

58:43where now another team that's going to be fighting for the first overall pick.

58:47Uh, just it's just a wasteland. They bring in Bobby Slowick. You have Malik Willis, you have Devon Achan, and then I'm I if

58:56you went around in the Miami streets and asked them to name a pass catcher on this team, they would be they wouldn't

59:02be able to. Um I I guess Tyreek Hill like technically if you want to say he's sort of maybe still a Dolphin, but uh

59:09it's just insane what they have given Malik Willis to cook with. Uh what did you find when you I and honestly I don't

59:15even really want to spend the because we already know what Bobby Sick does. Like he's just not great. Like this is a a a

59:20crazy hire. um after what he did with the Texans. But I want like is there any optimism with SOIC or is it dead?

59:29>> Uh like great viral street interview video idea for anyone that wants to steal it. Walk around Miami and ask people's opinions on the Malik

59:36Washington versus Kevin Coleman slot battle uh taking place at their training camp right now. I want to see that. Um yeah, I'm just generally pretty down on

59:47the Dolphins. Um, I have a lot of criticisms of what Bobby Sloic has done.

59:53I you can go back and forth on the chicken or the egg of why was he so absurdly runheavy on second and long. Is

60:01it really because CJ Stra just couldn't handle it and would take sacks or is it just because he's constantly being put

60:09in these impossible dropback situations because Sloick is way too runheavy uh on first and 10 and on second and long. I

60:16did a whole thread on it. Um, but basically my opinion of Sloic is that that that's going to be his continued uh

60:26identity, right? Just with how this team is built with Malik Willis, Devon Achan is clearly the two best like offensive weapons. Uh, and both of them are

60:34because they can run really well and really efficiently. So, I think that's what the Dolphins are going to try to do

60:39is run run.

60:42I think if you get into a situation where there's all of these third and longs uh created by that approach that

60:50Willis has to kind of dig himself out of, I think number one, Willis could do that. Uh he's a great scrambler. He had

60:58we see his scramble rate nearly double on third and long over the small sample of drop backs that we have for him. So

61:05that could work out in fantasy for sure just from a rushing perspective for Willis. Uh but that that just has like a

61:11really negative pull on Devon Achan. Uh any third down drop back that Willis is scrambling on is one that Achan's not

61:19getting targeted on. Uh which is what we want. Over half of Achan's uh expected fantasy points, his volume came from

61:27receiving last year. Uh and a lot of it was when he was being deployed really creatively, right? when he was lining up

61:35outside of the back field in the slot, uh, running end zone fades, doing all this crazy stuff like just aside from

61:43being a quote unquote running back, right? Uh, he's averaged over three fantasy points per game from outside the backfield every year of his career. We

61:52haven't really seen Sloick use a running back like that before. uh just his backfields in general of course have been much less valuable than Mike

62:01McDaniels because he it just is much uh yeah he's just he's just had worse offenses that haven't been in goal line

62:09situations as much uh that haven't thrown to running backs as much. So I un very unfortunately am out on Devon Han

62:17at the one two turn uh or wherever he's going at around that range. I just think there are better bets than

62:26a re really explosive and amazing player that I love uh but who has really made his living in fantasy in the receiving

62:33game uh now with the quarterback that has the lowest target share to running backs over his career of any QB in the

62:41NFL uh or at least over the past two years. I just I just don't see it. I don't see the formula kind of working

62:48here for Han. Like he'll probably be fine. I'm not saying H Chan's only going to be like a low-end RB2 or anything

62:55like that, but I I just don't see the outcome where he's a top three running back, right? And that's what I'm really

63:01trying to aim for uh in the Yeah. in this range in round one and round two.

63:06And I I don't think the safety is like great relative to other guys either.

63:11Yeah, it sucks. Like all of the nerds, we're all we're all together. We love Devon Achan, everything that he stands for. 188 pound back that uh has just

63:19kind of defied the odds and all it and I'll die on this uh hill of Joe Mixon's usage in the NFL, but Slow it kind of

63:26outlined it as well where this is somebody goes to a new situation. Can we revive the stuff from Joe Mixon in

63:31college, one of the best passcatching running backs, you know, in terms of prospects ever. Uh splitting the backfield with Perine at Oklahoma. It's

63:38funny how the things shook out where Perine's the passing down back and Mixon's actually the between the tackles bruiser when they were opposites when

63:44they were like 21 22 years old. Uh and all he gives him is 36 receptions that year in those 14 games. I don't know. A

63:53Chan's a guy who who's hit 60 plus the last two years. Maybe he does it again, but there's a chance for the receptions

63:58to really fall off. I would love for him to shove me in a locker and he just has like, you know, all of the breakaway

64:03runs. Like he he hits the seven yards per carry he did in his rookie year or whatever, but without McDaniel, I just

64:08don't see it happening. Uh I do want to pick your brain on some of the more negative coaching hires that you had in

64:13the article outlined. We can start with uh my guy Frank Reich. He comes to my Jets.

64:19Uh I wish that there was more optimism.

64:22You know, I wish uh Tanner Angstrand I was actually kind of ready to to be all in on. They bring in Frank Reich. kind

64:27of the the steady uh play caller. I have seen people like uh Pat Thorman kind of mention that he did have some good years

64:33with the Colts, right? Whether that was with uh kind of like the pre, you know, they've had a billion quarterbacks at this point. He got to

64:41have Andrew Luck at one point, he got to have uh you know, between Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, whoever you want to kind of

64:47name. Uh there's a couple of years in there where he did okay. Uh but where does Frank Reich fall on the I assume

64:52he's an older coach in terms of like the pre-nap motion, the play action. Uh what do you expect from a Frank Reich offense

64:58uh in New York?

64:59>> Yeah, so Reich has been over the last five seasons. So this is just uh his last two years with the Colts. Uh and

65:07when he was calling plays with the Panthers in 2023 before he got fired. Uh he's been about average in terms of play

65:15action. Uh makes makes some sense like runheavy identity kind of coach. Uh but he is just like dead last in total drop

65:23back motion rate. that is not a part of his offenses whatsoever. Uh very much the opposite of what Tanner Angstrand was doing last year with a ton of

65:33motion. So that will be like a big change. I don't really think it will be a positive one. I I did give Angstran

65:42the shoutouts in in the article justice for Tanner Angstrand. Uh but yeah, we're just kind kind of stuck with Reich here

65:49for the Jets where he's had the >> second worst adjusted net yards per attempt of any currently employed play caller with a decent sample. Uh it's

65:59just probably good to not draft that guy's players in fantasy football more often than not. Uh or at least if for a

66:06player like a Garrett Wilson or like a Bree Hall, I think you need to make a case that convincingly states why Frank

66:13Reich won't hold them back, right? or why why it won't matter in this circumstance uh that they're going very likely going to be in an inefficient

66:22offense. Uh so with Garrett Wilson, I almost can kind of get there, right? He was a low-end wide receiver one by

66:31fantasy points per game by expected fantasy points per game over the first six games last year. Uh it's not like Ang's transmotion was actually

66:39increasing Wilson's efficiency. He barely ever got targeted on those plays.

66:43So maybe that's where you could convince yourself. But I don't know, man. I just look at Frank Reich's history. He has

66:50had one receiver ever out of eight seasons as a head coach or an offensive coordinator.

66:58Uh it was one Ty Hilton season with Andrew Luck. Uh so I I don't know that go the Gino Smith offense is going to

67:06reach those levels of efficiency uh as Andrew Luck was doing back in the day.

67:11So yeah, I just seem kind of there there's a lot of guys that I like in round three, round four at the wide

67:18receiver position. It's just really hard to like spend energy and thoughts and draft picks on Garrett Wilson with that kind of context. Uh and with Bree Hall,

67:28I think it's even more clearly negative in my mind where Reich, yes, has had valuable backfields in the past. Uh especially with Jonathan Taylor in 2021,

67:39he was I I believe the top scoring running back in the NFL or in fantasy that year, right? Uh but like you look

67:46at the Colts in that offense, they went 9 and eight. Uh they were leading on 52% of their offensive snaps. A lot of that

67:54was just game scripts. Like we can constantly give all of these carries and touches to Taylor and feed him over and

68:00over and run over all these bad teams.

68:02That's unlikely to happen for the Jets this year with Reese Hall. They have a 5 and a half win total. They're implied

68:08for the fewest points per game in the NFL. I I I just kind of think that the the Reich running back formula is only

68:15going to work on a good team with favorable game script and that's like not what you want to project the Jets

68:21for. I I of course there's also the Aaron Glenn factor of this will be a three-headed backfield. He loves Brandon Allen and Isaiah Davis. That was what we

68:30saw last year. He was was in fact not lying last year over the first four games. uh Bree Hall getting just 27% of

68:38the backfield's carries inside the 20 with Brillin Allen active last year. So yeah, I just am kind of out on the Jets.

68:46Uh unfortunately cuz yeah, G Wilson and Hall are players I really like, but it's just not uh an offense I want to buy

68:54into whatsoever.

68:55>> It just hurts to hear. This is somebody uh I've been talking I was completely out on Garrett Wilson and Bree Hall last

69:00year. Uh this year I've been drafting them a lot more. Uh, it's definitely sobering to hear.

69:06It just sucks. It sucks. I think that Gino is just such a such an upgrade from a like passing floor standpoint where

69:12you had a good tweet where it's like one of the worst passing yardage years like really in the modern era of what we were

69:19doing last year. So, if you can just give me some PPR, this offensive line is rounding into shape. But, there's certainly factors that are holding it

69:26back. whether it's Frank Reich, there's actually, you know, I think we'll see a little more efficiency now that the the like skill group is like a real NFL

69:33skill group. Uh but then that also like takes away some targets and uh it's definitely not as clearcut as I wish it

69:40was. If if Tanner Ang was here, I think it would be a lot of uh easier cell. Um but we'll talk about the other New York

69:47team who honestly did something very similar. They brought in somebody that was an uninspiring play caller. Uh, you bring in Matt Nai to New York, uh, who

69:56just I don't know. I I don't know why NFL teams keep, you know, between Bobby Slowick and Frank Reich and Matt Ngi,

70:02how how these guys get jobs every year.

70:05Uh, but what's your expectation with Nai? Like I I think not to kind of speak for you here, but just like off the top

70:11of the dome of like seems like Jackson Dart had some concerns coming into the NFL of his offense was very dumbed down

70:19by Lane Keifin and then Brian Dable kind of gave him training wheels last year.

70:24Uh and I just don't really trust Nai to then give him training wheels and now Malik Neighbors. It just seems like a

70:29nightmare uh with this team. So I'm definitely a little lower than most when it comes to the Giants.

70:35Yeah, I spent basically this entire blurb just roasting Matt Negi. Uh it it's pretty ugly anywhere you look over his history. Um so the last two times

70:46that Naggie entered an NFL season as a team's play caller, uh this was back in 2020 and 2021 when he was the head coach

70:55of the Bears. Uh within like six games in each of those seasons, he gave up play calling duties, just had his OC do

71:02it. Uh both times the offense got better without Matt Naggie. Uh which is is just yeah not super encouraging that this guy

71:11is now helming the Giants offense in Jackson Dart. Um there's also the Matt Naggie effect with Patrick Mahomes that

71:19we have to mention. Uh where it back in 2022, so first year without Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes was still one of the

71:28most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL.

71:30Uh throwing to like Juju Smith Schustster as his wide receiver one. Uh the next season Naggie gets promoted to offensive coordinator for the Chiefs.

71:39Has uh at least a little more involvement on game day in terms of the play calls and the play selection. It

71:45like it's Andy Reid running that operation. But uh there's been like a lot of talk over the years about how how

71:52much of a kind of like twoperson process that is in Kansas City. But yeah, either way, the moment Naggie got involved, uh

71:59Mahomes' efficiency cratered. He's been like the 20th best quarterback by a Justin net yards pro attempts uh since Naggie was the Chief's OC. So that's not

72:08great either. And we look at Naggie's history uh with the Bears and we notice that Mitchell Trabiscy was never running

72:18for that many touchdowns under him. Uh Justin Fields only two rushing touchdowns in his rookie season with Naggie. uh and a career-l low 7% share

72:30of team rush attempts inside the 5yd line for Fields that year under Naggie.

72:35Uh for the rest of his career, Fields would be up at like 40% which is like where Josh Allen, Jaylen Herz, all the

72:41hyper mobile quarterbacks are. That's like a really big deal for the fantasy viability of these hyper mobile quarterbacks is getting that goal line

72:49work. Uh Dart was up at a 33% share uh for the Giants inside the five last year. I really wonder if that comes

72:57down. Uh like the Giants beats haven't given us any any indication that they're going to run him less, but I wonder just

73:04if those in those specific situations, uh it's like not necessarily something that a beat rider is going to pick up on

73:11uh in terms of wow, they're running dart less if it's only at the goal line. But that's if if it's 10 or 20 carries over

73:17a full season that he misses out on there uh in terms of goal line opportunities, that's huge for his fantasy scoring. So I am a little bit

73:26worried. I maybe it's overthinking like Dart was awesome last year over 22 fantasy points per game in his starts uh also without Malik Neighbors largely. So

73:36like maybe I get owned by this and Dart is just fine anyway. But there there's like real reason to be skeptical I would

73:42say on him. Um and I don't know that that kind of just filters down to every other Giants uh skill player. Um, Cam

73:52Scataboo you can maybe make an argument for with like Craig Roman being the run game coordinator. He's run much more of

74:00a scheme that has like matched Scataboo skill set uh in terms of a lot less zone, a lot more man gap. That could be

74:08good for him. Uh, the goal line stuff could be good for him if Scataboo is like the new version of David Montgomery

74:13just taking all the goal line stuff like he did on the Bears back in the day. But it's also just the offense. I don't want

74:20to buy into the offense at all uh for a running back where part of the thesis is goal line work. Like h I just can't I

74:27just can't do it. Um when when there's all these awesome wide receivers I'd rather draft in round four right now.

74:33Um, so yeah, Dart and Scataboo guys like that are super fantasy friendly in theory that I would want to be in on uh

74:41with even a below average play caller, but Naggi is just like so far bottom left of every chart like off the grid uh

74:50in in terms of what his offenses have done that I I just can't really convincingly be positive on either of those players. Um, I I think there's

75:00like reason to be okay or to be in on Isaiah likely. Uh, possibly from like a Naggie perspective. His tight ends have

75:09had kind of like random late career breakouts. Uh, Trey Burton in one year, 34 year old Jimmy Graham caught eight touchdowns. Uh, that that might be like

75:17an angle you could argue for Isaiah likely. Uh, but yeah, there's just like nothing else that's actually positive from diving into Naggie's history. Yeah,

75:26I'm in the same boat where like I assume I I I haven't fully caught up. I assume Scott Barrett probably likes Jackson

75:33Dart as well just for the rushing, but it's it's hard for me to get behind Scatabo. I was all over Scatabo last

75:38year. He of course breaks my heart with the injury and now he's getting way priced up on an offense I just struggle to really believe in.

75:45Now, I will say I hate to break the third wall. We are going a little bit long here. Um but I actually think it

75:51works out perfectly. You know, this is going to be one of my longest episodes ever. But I also think it's unfair for

75:56me to just like get your exact takes on every single offense when you have an awesome article. So, I'll make sure I

76:02link that down below and everything. Uh, but the offense that we missed, and I'll have you just kind of if any nuggets

76:07stick out in any of these places that we didn't get to, uh, we have Zack Robinson in Tampa, we have David Blau on

76:13Washington, we have, uh, Davis Webb in Denver, uh, we have Declan Doyle in Baltimore, we have McCarthy in Pittsburgh, we have Todd Mon in

76:21Cleveland, Tommy Reese and Stfansky in Atlanta, and then Carolina with IDS. Uh, I know you did mention like Derk Henry's screen potential was in the article I

76:30found very interesting. if there's any other nuggets you want to touch on there. Um, but I think this is a good

76:34teaser for the article because Ryan, I'm telling you guys, he is one of the best writers in the space. Um, and I think

76:40it's worth checking out uh, and reading in full.

76:44>> Yeah, I I'll give you one nugget from all those teams or one nugget from one of those teams that you just mentioned.

76:50Uh, Zack Robinson in Tampa Bay is really intriguing to me because he is is from like this Mc Shanahan tree. Uh he's been

77:01one of the biggest users of during snap motion throughout his time with the Falcons. Uh never really got to the play

77:08action piece uh with Kurt Cousins or with Michael Penn. So I do wonder if there's just kind of like a better

77:16marriage here to be had between him and Baker Mayfield. Uh just because yeah, Pennix could never really get under center or do the play action stuff.

77:24Cousins couldn't either. I mentioned that earlier. Uh, and the during snap motion has been really huge for Baker Mayfield and for the Buccaneers. Uh, m

77:36like it it's just a huge efficiency boost. It's like a 50% efficiency boost by adjusting net yards per attempt for Baker Mayfield last year uh when they

77:44would use during snap motion. Uh Robinson's done it twice as often as Josh Grizzard did last season. Uh Robinson talks to Liam Cohen on the

77:53phone every single day. Uh there there's just like a lot of interesting things to think about with the Buccaneers offense.

78:00Baker Mayfield's been behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons if you just take out uh the games he played after

78:08injuring his knee and oblique in like week seven last year. So that that could be like an offense that kind of roars

78:15back and surprises people. uh is more like an off-the-wall take I had um where yeah, Robinson was very runheavy with Bjan Robinson of course, but I do wonder

78:24if he like turbocharges this passing game uh specifically for Chris Godwin uh and Amecha Ibuka as well uh as the receivers there. So that's the more I

78:35like dug into Zack Robinson, the more intrigued I got on the Buccaneers passing game.

78:41Yeah, I really like that call where he kind of did get a a bad hand over there in Atlanta with just the quarterback

78:46situation and just kind of what the GM did over top of him with just like the Kirk Cousins and the Penn situation. Uh,

78:52and it's actually we were mentioning uh I guess we'll kind of call it pre-show with the Buccaneers going back and forth

78:58with like Left Witch and Canales and Grizzard and uh Liam Cohen where the Bucks the way that they switched these guys if you can time it up right uh it

79:07has been a huge hit in fantasy and I could see Zack Robinson being uh a big step up from Grizzard even though

79:12Grizzard they started strong and then it just kind of fizzled as Baker got hurt.

79:16But uh the rest of the article there's like seven or so teams we didn't get to.

79:20Uh, make sure you check out the article.

79:22Follow Ryan Heath on Twitter. Give the page views. He is one of the best in the space right now. Uh, tell the people

79:28where they can find you if they want to hear you more, if they want to read what you have to say more. Uh, and I

79:34appreciate you coming on.

79:36>> Yeah, thanks man. Really appreciate it.

79:38Uh, to find me, Ryanj_heath on Twitter.

79:41You can find all of my written work at fantasypoints.com.

79:45That's where this article is. 2026 new play callers fantasy football Impact is the title. And then yeah, if you want to

79:52see more of my face here on YouTube, uh we have a YouTube channel at Fantasy Points as well, youtube.com/fantasy points. Uh I am live on there with

80:01Graham Barfield every Monday morning at 10 Eastern time. And I'm also on our offshoot channels a ton, the Fantasy Points Dynasty, Fantasy Points DFS, and

80:11best baseball channels. Uh doing best baseball drafts with Jacob Sanderson over there. That's been a lot of fun this summer. So, yeah, go check all that

80:18out uh if you guys are interested.

80:20>> I love it. Everyone out there that watched this video, I appreciate it.

80:23Subscribe, leave a like, and I'll see you guys in the next one.

80:39Stones like this, ice cold.

80:43Oh. I like frozone.

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