0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Rod and today we're going to talk through my 10 fantasy football lessons learned and takeaways from week three. As we look forward to week four, this is where I talk about
0:11all of the notable stats, usage, trends. We even got some injury news since yesterday, which was Sunday. We even got a JJ McCarthy trade. We got a lot of things to cover today to save you time
0:22from scrolling box scores and Twitter headlines. It is all here in this video. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like,
0:29subscribe if you're new, and first we're actually going to start with the rookie running back Carousel because Jeremiah Love, what a performance. He comes out here
0:41and goes absolutely nuts. And now, the box score might not look crazy, right? The box score is fine. 26 touches, 109
0:48yards, and a touchdown. That's a solid day for a running back, but for a rookie running back that's been fending off
0:54Tyler Alier this entire time. And uh week two was a little bit ugly against the Seattle Seahawks. This is what we
1:00have been hoping for. John Dagel puts it really well up top there. Jeremiah Love's weekly share of backfield touches. 41% 57% and now it's an 8020 split. It is fully
1:14pop the champagne gong show whatever you want to say. It is Jeremiah Love to the moon. He got a 63% snap share, a 78% rush share in this game, 11% target
1:25share. It's an 8020 split. He gets five catches, 19 yards. Not the most efficient day through the year, but five catches for a running back is so awesome. And one of those catches was a touchdown where he was lined up inside
1:37the 10 yard line. So, we got goal line usage. It was just beautiful. He is a fringe top 12 running back rest of the
1:43season because this Cardinals offense is awesome. Now, let's not bury the lead here, right? Some of you guys probably clicked on this video. I just had to talk about Jerem. Some of you guys probably clicked on this video and was are like, "What the hell is this? What
1:55is the rookie running back carousel?" Well, we usually start with the rookie receiver report, which we'll get to. But the rookie running back carousel, the
2:02world famous rookie running back carousel, by the way, is how we track rookie performance week in and week out in fantasy football because it matters so much. We need to keep track of these things, right? Jeremiah Love 44% Snapshare to 40% to 63%. And now we have
2:16all of this usage we can look at to kind of get a feel week overweek of how these rookie running backs are trending. Of
2:22course, Jeremiah Love is trending in the correct direction. Now, I will say the rookie running back carousel is brought to you today by Underdog. They are the main presenting sponsor of the channel. Make sure you check them out. Use promo
2:33code Ron when you hop on underdog. They have their 50% deposit match when you use promo code Ron. They have your keep your million promo which is awesome as well. They even have promos running all
2:43the time on the Pickham lobby, which every single Friday, our sneaky starts and stats video, we fill out a Pickham entry to ride together. I think we missed it by literally an EMTT Johnson touchdown this week, but they're giving
2:54out profit boosts all the time. I think that there was a 100% profit boost this past weekend. Check it out. There's a lot of fun stuff to do over on Underdog
3:01during the football season. On top of that, you also have NHL, NBA, all coming up right now with drafts in the states that still have drafts to go out there and have some fun on. All of that can be
3:13found in the description and the comment section down below. But let's get back to Jeremiah Love. Part of the reason why
3:18I'm so excited about Jeremiah Love season is because he has fully emerged. He is now the guy in this backfield, right? He looks awesome. Tyler Alier, the other side of this is Tyler Aier has looked terrible. Six touches, nine yards. He's been one of the least
3:30effective, least explosive running backs in the entire NFL. And the big thing here is remember if we go all the way back to August, we're talking about fantasy football all the time. And I
3:40would love to use the implied Vegas point totals where they're looking ahead at spreads and overunders. And basically based off of that, the the Cardinals were projected to have a bottom three scoring offense in the NFL. So far, even
3:52with a match up against the Seattle Seahawks, the Cardinals are 12th in EPA per play, 10th in success rate. This is
3:58a good offense with Mike Laflur calling place who is awesome. This offensive line is decent. You have Jeremiah Love.
4:04Trey McBride is going to be solid this year. Michael Wilson's going to be solid this year. Now, I will say we're not going to cover the Cardinals at any
4:11other point in this video. So, I do want to point this out here. I know people are tempted to drop Marvin Harrison Jr.
4:17and if you're in a shallow league, if you're in a sixb 10 person league, you can drop Marvin Harrison Jr. But I will
4:23say if you're in a three wide receiver, one flex league, full PPR where wide receivers are a commodity, he's at least running routes at a good offense, right? Like it's not crazy good or anything like that, but 89% route
4:33share in an offense that I think is going to be league average at worst. He he's like a wide receiver four, five
4:39that you can stash on your bench and when by weeks hit and injuries hit, it's not going to be fun. The volume
4:45hasn't been there. But it's a it's a player that's running a lot of routes in a good offense and we've seen him command volume before. Um, I I I just
4:52want to see a little bit more. Um, I'll also say, you know, he's not a part-time player like Brian Thomas Jr., who we'll get to later. Now, a more somber note
5:00here, we of course have Jadarian Price. Now, this is the other side of the coin. We come on here, we pop champagne, it's
5:06all Jeremiah Love. It's it's good vibes. And now, this is where we track the snap share.
5:1250 50% in week one. He looks really good. Explosive in the opener against the Patriots. Of course, it was really annoying how Emanuel Wilson came on the field and then George Hani. But both of those running backs were ineffective. Then week two happens. Jadarian Price
5:25looks decent. Then he fumbles. Then he gets hurt and banged up with a chest injury. And then Emanuel Wilson messes around and ends up with 20 touches in this game. Then week three happens and
5:35this one it's really tough to stomach. Uh this is from JJ Zachares. Jadarian Price fumbled at the beginning of the first quarter. He had seen four of five snaps. He was in an 80% 8020 split, 100%
5:48rush attempt split. There was a chance that we came on here and double popped champagne. We popped champagne for Jeremiah Love. We popped champagne for Jarian Price and instead he fumbles, which John Dagel has a great tweet
6:00below, saying that Stevenson leads the league in fumbles in since 2024, averaging one for every 40 touches over that span. Jadarian Price currently has a fumble every 16 touches. That is not going to cut it in the NFL. Now, this isn't going to be sticky and keep up and
6:13some of that's frustrating. While I think uh Macdonald and the Seahawks are a great organization, it's actually a really tough one. This is a team trying to win another Super Bowl. I I understand the Rock is the program, the Ball is the program, but
6:26there is also the other side of it of like this young kid. You're traumatizing this young kid where uh price of
6:31snapshare fell to 22% and his rush share fell to 13%. Uh essentially benching him and putting him in the doghouse after
6:37fumbling the ball. And I there's two sides of it cuz on one side I get it. Again, the ball is the program you need
6:43to win football games. You cannot fumble, especially in back-to-back games, but on the other side here, Jadarian Price is their most talented running back. Their run game was absolutely a zero after this happened.
6:55And Jadarian Price is a young player you're trying to coach up here. But this is a really negative outcome for Jarian
7:02Price. Who knows? I I doubt it would have been an 8020 split, but it could have been something very positive. If I come in here, maybe it's a 65% snap
7:07share. Uh things look really good. Now he's at 4.7 points per game on the year. I also didn't explain what the hell this
7:13whole chart is, but you have uh each rookie running back with at least I think four touches, their week one, two,
7:19three snap shares just to see how they're trending, their points per game, so their production, their expected points per game is their volume. So just
7:25given their touches, their volume, how many points per game should they have? Their FPOE per game. So how much are they over underperforming that volume?
7:31Their rush share, so what percentage of rush attempts are they taking up? What percentage of routes are they taking up? So that's your passing game involvement.
7:37And then it's cool to run routes, but are you getting involved on those routes with a high target share? In a perfect world, we want high snap shares, high
7:44rush shares, and high target shares. That is what Jeremiah Love has. Jarian Price is starting to split slip. And the entire selling point of Jaren Price was early season production. Even though he's a rookie, early season production,
7:56show flashes, and then even when Charbanet comes, he would be too special to hold him off. Now, fumble, doghouse, and then Charbanet is going to be back here. Who knows how soon, but soon enough, uh, that the runway is no longer
8:09cleared and ready for takeoff. Uh, this is now somebody Jadarian Price that I wouldn't start in week four. Uh, and we're just going to have to see how they handle him moving forward. Uh, then we can talk about Mike Washington. And this one's tricky and it also bleeds into
8:22some ash and gent. You guys will see. I think we actually have 11 takeaways in this video. I kind of jump all around with what I think is actually important
8:27here. Uh Mike Washington, he has a 36-yard touchdown in this game. He has real juice. Uh I wouldn't go as far as this, right? We have uh Jared Sm here.
8:38Ashton Jenty has two runs of 36 plus yards on 329 career carries. Mike Washington had a 36-yard touchdown run yesterday. Scott Barrett then says he has four runs of 18 plus yards, 1.2%. Mike Washington has two on 15 career
8:50carries, 13.3%. Not great. Mike Washington is explosive. He's big, fast. He he's like a speed score monster, but he actually seems to be good at football. Unlike some of the other ones, whether you want to bring up Caleb Malage or Isaac Greno, Mike
9:04Washington seems to be a guy. Now, here's what I'll say. His snapshare has not budged. 19% 20%, 17%. He's in this
9:10area where it's still an 8020 split. Ash and Genty is the unquestioned bellcow. Still, this is a screenshot from fantasylife.com. They have a great utilization report that kind of gives you the lay of the lands here. Genty
9:22still awesome usage, still 80% snap share, still 75% of the rush attempt, still 58% of the routes, everything across the board, Gent is dominating, but how much longer is this going to hold if Ashen Genti is going to continue
9:34to be inefficient on these touches? Now, I'm a big believer in Gent's talent. I'm a big believer in who he was coming out of school, but we now have back-to-back
9:42weeks here of 2.3 yards per carry in week two and now 2.9 yards per carry in week three. three and now he gets the Kansas City Chiefs next week. We'll see how this all shakes out. But a workload
9:55that seemed untouchable, Mike Washington could start to eat into that. And if not anything else, Mike Washington, very similar to your uh Emtt Johnson's of the world is one of the best handcuffs in
10:07all of fantasy football. This was a matchup where I thought we could start him against the Miami Dolphins in our sneaky starts video. It was not. The
10:13Dolphins play really slow, so it gets really tough even when you run up the score on them to score a lot of fantasy points. Uh, and then also there just
10:20wasn't enough for Emtt Johnson to go around. Then you also have Kalin Black. And I will say you'll see his snap shares have gone 44% 31% 16%. This is
10:28not uh any indictment on Kalin Black as a talent. It's really more so a positive for McAffrey, right? After week one, all of us were not all of us, but a lot of us were spooked, right? in the Rams game
10:40in Australia. This was like a new role for Christian McCaffrey. It was like the first time we've ever seen McAffrey get
10:45like out carried or outtouched in the first or second quarter. It was it was nuts, especially for a rookie in his first ever game. Uh but it has just
10:52trended down ever since. Last week it was only 31% because they killed the Dolphins so quick. And then in a game
10:58that went wire towire against the Cardinals, again, the Cardinals are a better team than we all thought heading into the season. 16% snapshare. You
11:05know, he's he's in the same bucket as Mike Washington. He's just a a really solid handcuff behind a really good uh behind a entrenched volume hog running
11:12back is how I would say it. But still a a handcuff that you are not dropping. Uh and then everything else is kind of
11:18whatever. Uh we can talk about CJ Donaldson where ETN seems to be banged up. Uh I I think it's it's Kendra Miller
11:24and it is Alvin Kamara in terms of touches. Deon Claybourne I think is is probably I think he's probably dust man.
11:31Uh Aaron Jones was trying everything in his power to leave this football game with a knee injury and they just wouldn't let him. Uh Deont Claybourne turned three touches into one yard in this game.
11:44I I would be shocked if Claybourne is anything in the NFL and I hope that you can you know freezing cold takes that
11:49quote, but I I would be shocked if he ends up being anything. Now I think that kind of covers everything. Singleton's
11:55like a healthy scratch in this game. Krono doesn't play. Uh I'm not touching any of the Washington backfield by the way. Let's move on to the rookie receiver report. This time sponsored by
12:06the channel. I will say just give me a second here. Check if you are subscribed to the channel. If you are not, click
12:11subscribe. I am giving you this info. Every single week you are showing up every single week. This is now the third
12:17video, one of these that we've done. If you're now, if you've now watched all three of these and you're not subscribed, subscribe. It helps us out.
12:23All right, we are scratching and clawing. It's not going to happen anytime like right now, but we're trying to get to 100K uh over, you know, at
12:31some point. I need that plaque. I need the plaque behind me. I know it's not going to happen after I post this video, but I need the 100K plaque behind me.
12:37All right, that's got to come soon. Uh I say soon, I don't know. I I don't know. Uh but here we go. The rookie receiver
12:44report. Very same idea. We are tracking the progress week to week in terms of RA participation. Anything over a 85% rap participation, right? That just means
12:54the percentage of routes you are running on pass plays. You want to be out there on the field for pass plays as a
13:01receiver. This is all rookie wide receivers and tight ends with 19 or more routes run. We have their points per game. So what's their production? Their
13:07targets per out run. Uh what is their volume? Anything where 20% is solid? Yards per out run. How efficient are you? Anything over two yards per out run is solid. First downs per out run. Are you not only being efficient and producing and all this stuff, but are
13:18you moving the chains and helping your offense score points, march on the football field, all of that? And then PFF grade. Uh, I know PFF is a hot topic, but PFF historically has been
13:30very good at finding superstars at wide receiver. Uh, if you get an 80 plus PFF grade over an entire season, that has
13:36pretty much been the set and forget it. This player is going to be a star in the NFL metric. Nobody as of right now has
13:42an 80 plus PFF grade, but that can always change. Now, we started by popping the champagne for Jeremiah Love.
13:48We can also start by ch popping the champagne for Kenyan Sadi. What an awesome awesome game from him. Eight targets, seven catches, 105 yards, and one touchdown. Uh I have a I have a
13:59litany of stats here for you guys. So, just sit back and take this all in. His 4.2 yards per out run were the highest
14:06in a single game from a tight end this season. Minimum 25 routes. Kenyan Sadi leads all rookie receivers with a 2.42
14:13yards per route run. He's behind only Denzel Boston among rookies and receiving yards. He has 143 receiving yards. He has run 59 routes to Denzel Boston's 98 routes. The most PPR points,
14:25we're going to keep going here. The most PPR points through a tight end's first three career games since 2020. Sam Laaporta 42.6 PPR points. Kenyan Sadi 38.6 PPR points. Brock Bowers 37.7 PPR
14:41points. Now, is some of that stuff inflated by the week one uh rush attempt that went into the end zone? Sure. Uh is he not on the same level as Brock Bowers or even Sam Leaporta at this point?
14:53Sure. In terms of being like a real every week startable tight end in fantasy football, absolutely. Because 57% route share is not going to cut it. Now, this was a game where he left he was in and out of the medical tent a
15:04couple of times here and there, but in a game without Mason Taylor, a game without Omar Cooper or AD Mitchell, we
15:10need this route chair to get to 70% plus before we feel any confidence for, and I will say this as well, tight ends have a
15:17lower threshold. Tight ends like Dolan Concade, I don't think has a single game this year of over a 70% route share. He
15:22operates on the 65% plus range, like high 60s, but that's on crazy efficiency attached to Josh Allen. everyone else. We'd like to get the 70% plus. That's really what we're hoping for from tight ends, but for wide receivers, we want
15:3390% plus. Sadique, I think, is trending that way, but it is a little bit frustrating that in this game, we are
15:40giving routes to Galani Woods and and this dude Mlan that I can't even I don't even know his name. I I don't even know
15:46his first name and he's on my favorite football team. Uh like this was a game where the Jets were pulling guys off the street. They they legitimately activated
15:53Sterling Shepard off the practice squad. We're giving Galani Woods 20% of the routes. We're We're doing all kinds of crazy stuff.
16:00Sadi needs more than 57% of the routes. I I'll chalk it up to two things. I'll chalk it up. Well, it's actually three. I'll chalk it up. One, that he was hurt
16:07in training camp and is probably really starting to pick up the playbook as he goes. Uh two is that maybe he genuinely
16:13was hurt and they were kind of being uh careful with him at times. And then three, the my biggest concern is that
16:21like Frank Reich and these guys are idiots and overthinking themselves. That could absolutely be the case on a Jets football team. But here we are now. We get to the Cleveland Browns receivers as we kind of always do here. Denzel Boston
16:32comes down to earth in a week where people actually probably had the confidence to start him for the first time. He gives you four targets, two catches, 41 yards, a 14.5 yard AOT. His
16:40efficiency has been good. His production's been good, but a 15.3% targets per out run. He is essentially a downfield uh boom bust flex play at this point in time. And it's why I like Conpsion more.
16:52But there's like a yin and yang happening here where Boston is the low target, high efficiency downfield player. Conpsion is the 20.7% targets per out run 98 super low efficiency guy.
17:04But he got seven targets in this game. Turned that into two catches for nine yards. That is awful. 5.3 yard a dot. Uh
17:10operating in this gadget gimmicky role. But really the most important thing is and why we do this every single week.
17:1665% 74% 95%. That is huge. That is as good as this gets and to me it is the loudest signal out of anything for Conpsion.
17:28Remember three game sample is still really really small getting the targets earning the routes that are that is two huge huge W's for Conpsion. While he didn't perform, it's still a strong
17:43note. his 10.3 expected points per game over the entire season so far. Like pretty much in every game, he's gotten the volume to get about 10 points per game. That is better usage than Jameson Williams, Rashi Rice, and Lad Mcconkey
17:54through three weeks so far. And he just started this week being a full-time wide receiver. I really do think better days
18:00are ahead, and I hate to give him any kind of credit, but Deshaawn Watson is playing the best football of his Cleveland Browns career, and that's a that's a fair statement. Uh, then we have Carnell Tate here.
18:13this Titans team is awful. Um uh they tried everything in their power to to you know I was going to say like everything in their power to win this game but it just it didn't feel I would say the Giants tried everything in their
18:25power to let the Tyson Titans try and win this game and they just couldn't. Uh but Carninal Tate if we zoom out to a
18:30dynasty perspective so I understand some of you guys are playing dynasty you maybe drafted Carnell Tate like what 102 103 in this draft class. Here's the
18:37thing with Tate. He was labeled and kind of his detractors would have said uh he was a Jeremiah Smith, not even a Jeremiah Smith merchant, but he couldn't command enough volume next to Jeremiah Smith and was just kind of a the robin
18:49to his Batman and was a field stretcher. Uh which is like sort of true, but getting a 22% targets per out run is really strong for Carnell Tay. That's really good. You know, that's that's
19:01that's higher than Conpsion is getting all the gimmicky stuff. Carnell Tay is operating as a real deal wide receiver.
19:06His quarterback is just terrible. Since 2023, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, this is a stat from Jakeandball on Twitter. Ward among those 36 quarterbacks since 2023, ranks dead last
19:18in EPA per play, success rate, and completion percentage over expectation. He has been god awful. Carnell Tate reddraft is a flimsy flex play at best. Uh in Dynasty, I feel pretty strong about him as a target earning real deal
19:31wide receiver in the NFL where that was a concern early on. uh or just like based on his prospect profile. Then after that, positive day for Chris Bell, who sadly, I'll be honest, hand up. I
19:42dropped him in some spots because it just looked rough off the ACL tear. He looked bad in this game, down to 39% of
19:47the routes, but he actually rockets up to higher than his 54% in week one to 73% of the routes here. Uh he gets five
19:54targets, four catches, 67 yards, and three first downs. Now, the issue is I don't know that the Dolphins are going to have enough here for any of these guys to matter. Now, maybe right there's going to be no more a chain. We'll get to that in a little bit. No more achain.
20:10Maybe they they pass the ball more, but with Malik Willis, you just you can't build a a drop back offense. And then what's been happening is even in
20:16negative game scripts, they've been milking clock and running the ball to the point where like you can't even like lull these guys into some kind of shootout. So, the passing volume has been super low, too. Even in negative game scripts, I I'm I'm optimistic on
20:30Bell. I just question the upside uh in this passing game. But I still Chris Bell really really strong direction. His his pro numbers are starting to trend up here. His route shares trending up.
20:41Caleb Douglas being banged up helps. And then I also think Han getting hurt. Like I said, I think that that helps maybe
20:46make this thing slant towards the passing game. Then we have a weird one. Josh Cameron. I thought it was a blip on
20:51the radar when he went out there in week one and caught a touchdown. Well, now he's really impacting things. And I
20:58want to use this time to talk about Brian Thomas Jr. because we're not going to talk about him later. Brian Thomas Jr. played 37% of the snaps to Josh
21:06Cameron's 39% of the snaps. Now, you're going to say, "Well, this says 28% here." Well, this is routes. And here's the weird thing with Josh Cameron. He's such an interesting player. Now, I will say for our purposes, he's really not that interesting. Uh he's never someone
21:18that's going to go in your lineup. Uh I I know his perout stuff looks good. I I guess he's a speculative ad in places. You can definitely speculatively add him. There's a chance, right? I'm not going to say that there's no chance.
21:29when your per out numbers are this good. Uh this is somebody who deserves to be rostered in deep leagues and especially
21:34in dynasty leagues, all of that. But what I'm trying to hint at here is that he's a blocking receiver almost almost
21:40like a specialist, almost like a uh I think like Ben Scarinck is used in a sort of a similar role, but this is
21:46somebody where 62.3% of his snaps are into block. Among every wide receiver in the NFL with 35 or more snaps played, he has the highest percentage of snaps
21:58blocking. So, he's essentially like a wide receiver tight end hybrid where if he's on the field 60% or more of the
22:04time, it's actually a run play. Uh, but they're like tiptoeing this line. And this is me kind of like really rambling
22:10here, but Josh Cameron's really interesting because he's a a blocking wide receiver that is almost bridging the gap where if you want to get really meta here, and comment down below if you guys care about any of this, uh,
22:24heavy personnel is so uh so in vogue right now. like can we get two to three tight ends on the on the field, right? The the Rams started it last year of like the Terren Ferguson, Tyler Higgby,
22:34Kobe Parkinson, Davis Allen, all of these damn tight ends. You get the tight ends on the field and what ends up happening is the defense has to respect
22:40the run game. They come out in heavier personnel and packages and then your wide receiver like JSN last year and the Seahawks can just run wild. That's kind
22:46of been the meta right here. But the Jaguars are kind of in this spot where you can see here with Nate Borers,
22:51right, their tight end that they drafted to kind of copycat the Rams. his route share has plummeted from 40% to 23% to
22:5813% and my Spidey senses are tingling that I think it has something to do with Josh Cameron here that they would prefer
23:04that if they're going to come out in heavier sets and pass the ball to those heavier sets I think that they would prefer Josh Cameron and Brettton Strange
23:10over Borcer and Bretton Strange. So, he's now operating as like a tight end in this scheme, but he's super efficient because we go back to why we want why JSM was so successful and why we want
23:23these wide receivers to be in these heavy personnel offenses because a lot of these tight ends, you know, your Nate Borcers of the world, and there's even I think there's a Quinton Morris on this team as well. And once you start coming out in these heavier packages, uh it
23:37it's easier to find efficiency. One, because the defense is at a disadvantage with heavier personnel. And then two, you're not competing with a, you know,
23:44let's say four wide, like let's say Josh Cameron was a tight end and he was just in line and it was, you know, Brian
23:50Thomas, Parker Washington, Jacobe Myers, all of these stud receivers on the outside. Well, now Josh Cameron's in the game. It's probably Brettton Strange,
23:56probably Borers staying in to maybe even pass block a little bit. Um, and then it's Parker Washington who's amazing, but it's just it's just less. It's more consolidated there. And that's what's making Josh Cameron uh be a little bit
24:07better. Now, of course, it's a really small sample of routes. Uh it's it's in these he's almost like in a red zone
24:13role, too. That's why he has two touchdowns so far. So, I'm rambling all of this to say that uh this is a 61 220
24:18lb blocking wide receiver. Uh he spent five years at Baylor. His best season was 870 receiving yards.
24:25You'd be shocked if this guy was uh relevant in fantasy football, but I I I don't want to rule him out just yet. Now
24:31we come to the the rest portion of the rookie receiver report here where we can talk about Antonio Williams. Uh he's getting buried in the depth chart which is really unfortunate because his per
24:42out numbers are the best of anybody in this class. Now of course a lot of that's coming off the back of his awesome performance in week one but
24:49scaling back his routes just seems a little bit puzzling here. I will say um it's funny because I was begging for Dame Brown's uh routes to get scaled back, right? I was I was looking for
25:01Brown to come down. Da Brown comes down, Trayon Burke goes up instead of Antonio Williams. Now, I will also recognize there is some personnel limitations between like Antonio Williams and Diggs as like inside out uh slot flanker style
25:15receivers. There is a lot of overlap there. And I understand getting a bigger receiver and Trayon Burks involved makes more sense or Damy Brown more of your
25:21vertical X um like sacrificial X sort of role. I understand what they're trying to do with those other receivers, but it is just a bummer uh that they can't figure out how to get all three of these guys on the field at the same time. Um I am
25:34just looking up now in case I I like missed a um an injury with Antonio Williams, but I don't believe so. Oh,
25:40no. Antonio Williams, I think that he had like a a brutal drop. I think he had a he had a rough drop, but I think it
25:45was on at the end of the game, so it didn't really even affect his route share. But that is tough to see that he had a bad drop late in this game uh that
25:52I assume he's going to have to sort of pay for. So, or not even pay for they win this game, but he did have a bad drop uh down the stretch of this game.
26:00Yeah, he didn't get banged up in this game as far as I can tell. Now, we get to the rest of the video. Uh there's not really anything else for me to go over. If there anyone else like Ted Hurst is like a fine field stretching X. He
26:10hasn't really he had like I think he had one catch, one touchdown. Pout stuff is terrible. Uh we can sort by yards per
26:15yard and have some fun here, but yeah, none of these guys I guess Hner scored a touchdown in the in the Ravens Cowboys game, but and he's scaling up, you know.
26:22Well, put that put that put that away in the filing cabinet. All right. I I'm not saying don't start Hner, but 17% to 26%
26:28to 36% towards a touchdown. There's something there. All right. So, moving on from that, let's talk about the rest of this video where we just go into my takeaways, lessons learned, all of that.
26:41Uh, let's talk about the Giants. The New York Football Giants. And we're going to start having these little banners underneath. Look at that. the Giants with Jameus Winston and potentially JJ McCarthy. It's up to you.
26:54Uh let let's zoom out for a second and just talk about what this game was for the Giants, right? It was a rain game.
27:01Uh it was the game I I was out with my buddies for the 1 p.m. slate. I'll be honest with everybody. And it was the game on the big screen with the volume.
27:08I mean, we're in New Jersey areas. For some reason, no one I no one gave a [ __ ] about the Jets game, which is just crazy
27:13to me. But whatever. Maybe it was a Giants bar. I don't know. Um, I had to beg to get the Jets game on another TV
27:18nearby. But talking about the Giants, they tried everything in their power to give this game to the the Titans. Ugly, ugly game in the rain. You can blame the rain if you want. Uh, but here's the thing that was the most concerning to
27:30me. You can blame the rain. Again, you can blame the rain if you'd like, but the Giants were 29th of 30 teams on Sunday in terms of pass attempts. They
27:37had just 22 pass attempts in this game. You would think with Jameus Winston, crank up the craziness, you know, get Jameus Winston to drop back 50 times.
27:43Maybe he throws two picks, but he throws three touchdowns. Let's see what happens. They were 27th in EP per play, 23rd in success rate. Uh, and even in this game, Neighbors had a 29% target
27:54share. That's awesome. He ends up with 7.6 PPR points. Isaiah likely 24% target share for a tight end. Awesome. He ends
27:59up with 3.3 PPR points. And now we bring JJ McCarthy.
28:05Now we bring in JJ McCarthy. The uh Vikings trade a fifth round pick for JJ McCarthy. And I know that there's this
28:12report underneath and my buddy Jacob Sanderson made a great uh point about it. The addition of JJ McCarthy is viewed more as a move to bolster the backup instead of, you know, like leaprog Jamus Winston. And maybe that's
28:27true, but if you read the tea leaves, they're not going to say, "Well, we're trading for McCarthy beat our starter."
28:32Because McCarthy doesn't know the playbook, right? He doesn't know. He can't operate this offense for minimum two weeks, right? Learning a new playbook with a new play caller and all of that and learning the rhythm and
28:45timing of new receivers takes time. So coming out here and front running as, "Oh, this is our new QB1. Jameus Winston
28:51is going to get a little bit upset about that. It's just like you can't do that. You can't do that. This is kind of the take you have to have. Like, oh, don't
28:57Jamus, don't even worry. He's the backup." and then you allow Jamus to throw three picks and then all of a sudden JJ McCarthy is starting in week six. You know, that's very much on the table. And if that's on the table,
29:10that's really bad. That is as bad as it could get. We saw last year he he murdered Justin Jefferson's fantasy football value. Jefferson in a 17game pace, 10 games with McCarthy uh last year uh through his rookie year. So,
29:23this isn't doesn't include 2026 stats, but that's like a three-game sample with whatever. Jefferson with McCarthy, 75 catches, 913 yards, and three touchdowns. That is his 17g game pace. One of the best wide receivers uh I've
29:35ever seen with anybody else. Sure, there's Kirk Cousins and Sam Donald in there, but there's also Josh Dobs and Brazmer and Carson Wentz. And there's other guy, Nick Mullins. There's
29:46other guys in there. 108 catches, 1600 yards, eight touchdowns. He sleepwalks to that over an 84 game sample. Again, it's Jefferson. You guys don't need to know that Jefferson's good at football, but that's the kind of uh clipping of
29:58your wings that J.J. McCarthy can do to you. So, I I think really what happens here is neighbors and likely kind of get
30:04nuked. I I think and it sucks even with Jamus. I think Jamus his days of being like a fun gunslinger like he was even
30:09on the Browns for a little bit are behind him. Uh he's very much a front-facing. He has his own podcast he's doing every week. He's uh in the
30:16offseason instead of like training and being a quarterback, he's being the World Cup correspondent.
30:21I just think the days of him being a serviceable uh you know like one of the best fantasy football friendly backups
30:28is behind him. I'd love to be wrong. Uh but I think you know when I sit down to do the rest of season rankings tomorrow,
30:33Tuesday night, uh Neighbors will be outside my top 24 wide receivers and likely will be outside my top 12 or so
30:40tight ends. And that sucks. Uh the Jackson Dart injury is one of the most brutal I can remember uh just for like
30:45shattering a fan base's core and their hope. But that's where we're at. Uh, it's also really unfortunate. This was a great usage game for Scataboo. Scataboo 78% snap share, 24 opportunities, 13 PPR
30:57points. That is just the state of the Giants offense. And then, you know, we started this thing popping a lot of champagne for some of these rookies. Uh,
31:04now it's time to pour one out for Devon Achan. Life without Devon Achan. And then we also have a Rashi Rice revival
31:10to talk about. First tough Devon Achan suffered a torn ACL. Um, I'll never hop on here in Victory Life anything. And of course, we weren't drafting Devon Han, but that sucks. Uh, Devon Han is also a
31:21guy, rookie year, essentially rookie year through 2025. I was in on him every single year. Awesome player, super fun player, undersized, shoved it down the football guy, like, you know, hard-nosed testosterone guys throats and said, you
31:34know what, 188 pounds and it doesn't matter. Torn ACL, I at least he got paid. That's what I'll say. He got paid.
31:40He got paid well this offseason, so good for him. Uh, I hope he recovers well. It sucks really bad. But now we're in this
31:47spot and we'll talk about in the Waverwire show. Maybe cooler heads will prevail. But I I wouldn't go crazy. I wouldn't go crazy for Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon. I think my buddy Jacob Sanderson who comes on the channel all the time, which by the way, we're coming
31:59off uh two wins on our FFPC main event with me, him, and Liam. I think that that team is Jonathan Taylor, CD Lamb.
32:06Trying to think of like whoever who else like sticks out from being good picks on that team, but it's a strong team. Uh,
32:12important to note that Jaylen Wright and Oyle Gordon have split the minimal backup work prior to Wright's injury, which forced him to miss week three.
32:18Also important to note that Han had a near 100% RB opportunity share, is one of the best talents in the league, and
32:23was a mid RB2. He then says, even if Han is ruled out for the year, so he tweeted this before uh the news came out. I
32:29wouldn't prioritize Gordon heavily on waiverss. I prefer him overright in a vacuum, but I expect a committee in the RB1 role would very much be up for
32:35grabs. Brillin a much stronger ad were available. I also say though, uh, Bruce Hall, the report came out that he's weak
32:41to weak. So, I wouldn't go crazy on really any of these guys, sadly. Uh, I get it. I I I get the, um, the
32:48infatuation with, oh, it's time to sprint to the waver wire to get the the backup or the, uh, handcuff, but, the issue is is that it's just it's a bad
32:53offense. And it also kind of outlines the idea, sadly, we're too good for our own good in fantasy football. All of the like we just talked about at the top, right? Kaylin Black, Mike Washington, Emtt
33:04Johnson or Emma Johnson, some of the best uh handcuffs in the league, they're all rostered. So, we have kind of ran
33:11out of our free space. You know, Aaron Jones for Jordan Mason. Like, we've kind of ran out of our free space. This guy
33:16goes down, it's time to sprint to the waiver wire and get somebody uh that's going to fill in. Trying to think of like someone something that's like a
33:23player who's not really rostered around your league. But we even saw it with like, you know, Josh Jacobs gets suspended order. Marshon Lloyd has been terrible. And then, you know, Caleb Johnson's been fine or whatever, but none of these guys have been startable.
33:35I think it's going to be similar for the Miami Dolphins who are just a terrible, terrible offense. Uh, this is a tweet
33:40from Ryan Heath here showing that it it was Olly Gordon, but Jaylen Wright was downgraded and out with a injury. So,
33:47it's tough to say who would actually be the backup. I mean, I would lean Ollie Gordon. Admittedly, two prospects that I
33:54actually liked more than Consensus. Uh Jaylen Wright ended up being a weird gimmicky player. Actually, I like all these guys. Charz Hunter out of Auburn was a fun player that the Rams gave up on. Jaylen Wright, a dude in a really
34:05the Tennessee scheme is just super wonky and bad. Uh and then Olly Gordon, who uh similar to like Chuba Hubard, his second and it's weird because they I think they both went to Oklahoma State.
34:17Ollie Gordon's second year, he he was uh like sort of seen, you know, how how everyone's like looking at like Jaden
34:23Ball right now. He was seen like that heading into year three. Uh and they just had a catastrophic third year at
34:28Oklahoma State. Everything fell apart on that team. Uh, but I'm rambling here to say uh these are all like fun dynasty
34:36stashes, but any of them being meaningful, like I I I think the most likely scenario is I ranked Olly Gordon as like my RB 28 this week. You know what I mean? So,
34:47so just when you're putting in your waiver bids, look at look at it through that. Ollie Gordon in this game, 17
34:53carries, 41 yards, a touchdown, 65% stuff rate. That's really bad. Minus 34 rushing yards over expected. That's really bad. I wouldn't go crazy. I think this is going to be a nasty split. We don't know who's going to emerge. And then even if someone does emerge, we
35:04just saw Hchan not really move the needle as the lead back in this offense as a far superior talent to all of these
35:11options. Then we get to or actually let's talk about Rashi Rice for a second. Rashi Rice, someone that we have kind of been victory lapping, does
35:17bounce back in a big way here. 39% target share. No one else on this Chiefs offense over 15%. Now, if I was to
35:23nitpick a little bit, 39% target share only resulting in seven catches, 88 yards, and 15.8. A P A P A P A P A P A P
35:29A P A P A P A P APR points as the wide receiver 18 isn't terrible. Uh this is somebody you drafted as a fringe wide receiver one, but I do think that he's
35:35probably now back in the range of a firm wide receiver too. Xavier Worthy gets banged up in this game. Let's kind of see how his role formulates here,
35:42especially against better defenses. I I do wonder if there's like if the Dolphins are like a zoneheavy uh let's just give Rashi Rice some layups here. I think that that's probably what it was. But I I'll give Rashi Rice the benefit
35:53of the doubt here. Then we had an absolute banger of a Sunday night football game. Rams versus Broncos in a thriller. But let's talk about some fantasy football takeaways from this game. First of all, uh it really sucks
36:04that a player we couldn't talk about the on the rookie running back carousel, Jonah Coleman, is hurt and he's on the
36:10IR somehow. Out of nowhere, out of left field, they just kind of reported midweek, yeah, this guy, he's actually going to go on IR. The guy that everyone
36:16ran and sprinted to get on waiverss and was excited about, he's actually done. Uh he should be back after four or so
36:22weeks. But there is clearly an opening for between the tackles grinder on this team. JK Dobbins from JJ Zachares here among 42 running backs with 20 or more carries. Dobbins is 40th in success rate, 33rd in 10 plus yard run rate, and
36:3439th in yards after contact per attempt. He has been brutal. Uh there were many times I was watching the game and it was
36:40just a first and 10 JK Dobbins run for zero to one yard. Uh and it was just putting the offense behind their, you know, behind the sticks. uh instead of like you know setting up a second and
36:52sec second and six or a third and short like it it just was running into a brick wall most of the time. Uh this is how
36:58the RB rotation shook out. Uh RJ Harvey did leave the game for a second with a concussion. It seems like he's not fully
37:05100%. Uh Harvey ends up with the better utilization score in this game. He gets 25% of the targets in this game which is
37:12always going to be good usage 10 plus PPR points but we need that 8% rush attempt share to climb. we need that to
37:18get into the 40% plus area for him to be a real player in fantasy football and not just a glorified Justice Hill. So,
37:25that's where we're at here. Uh that'll be kind of the watch over the next few weeks is can we get some early down
37:31rushes for RJ Harvey? Can we get a first and 10 carry for RJ Harvey? I think it's coming soon, but that's where I'm at.
37:37And then I also did get some questions which by the way on the Patreon patreon.com/ronon Stewart you can always like pretty much every Monday morning I I ask the premium side of the discord fellas like what do you guys want to
37:48hear me talk about. Jaylen Wadd is a guy I heard get mentioned a ton. I wouldn't freak about uh Jaylen Wadd just yet. He
37:54did have a 25% target share in this game. Trent McDuffy something that we don't really see in the modern NFL was
37:59giving him legit shadow coverage. This is a insight from NFLpro.com. Uh Trent McDuffy limited Jaylen Waddle to one reception for nine yards across 13 coverage matchups in week three. Waddle was held to just two catches for
38:1110 yards on seven targets overall a week after posting 138 yards. McDuffy moved around the formation essentially following Jaylen Waddle into the slot on 32.2% of his snaps and in the box which is crazy. He was moving inside of the
38:23box like a true nickel just to match up with Jaylen Waddle on a lot of these plays. Played outside corner just 49.2%
38:28of his snaps up to doing so on 91.6% in the first two weeks. So, a guy who would play primarily on the perimeter uh ended
38:36up like getting a and I think it's almost a positive that Jaylen Wadd has enough respect that Trent McDuffy gave him legitimate shadow coverage. He didn't do that uh for Mike Evans. He didn't do that for really anybody else.
38:47I wouldn't say Mike Evans a little bit different like Mike Evans isn't moving around the formation and stuff. It it'd be tough to find. I mean uh who did the
38:54Rams play in week two? I'm trying to remember. Uh but I I guess there wasn't uh the Giants. Maybe he followed Malleek
39:01Neighbors, but it seems like that game was like never really uh in question. But I thought that that was interesting. Wadd got the volume, it's just that
39:06McDuffy uh shadowed him. And then also Devonte Adams is unreal. Uh I think really when we talk about McAffrey and we talk about all these guys, all of the usage stuff from Australia that we were concerned about, you can throw it all out. None of it mattered. It was a weird
39:19fluky game. Uh and then I'll also say sadly Terren Ferguson, a guy on our sneaky start list that we were really excited about, uh gets banged up really
39:25early in this game, tries to come back and thug it out. uh just not good for Terren Ferguson. Definitely keep an eye
39:31on what that injury ends up being. Then speaking of tight ends, the goat, the king returns, Brock Bowers is back. And what we were really hoping
39:43for was he would manifest into these this like JSN slot receiver role. And that is what we got. This is a beautiful beautiful picture from NFL NextGen stats. 32 yards of uh after the catch,
39:5413 targets, 10 catches, 116 yards, a touchdown. He was the tight end one on the week with 27.6 PPR points. This is a
40:01good breakdown from Benjamin Solic as well, kind of outlining Brock Bowers, why he's special. Four games of 10 plus receptions, 100 plus receiving yards, and a touchdown in the same time span. The rest of the league's tight ends have four such games combined. And remember,
40:13Brock Bowers hasn't played in all of those games. He's actually missed a lot of games over that stretch. And then first game under Clint Kubak, only eight
40:20of 33 routes came from actual tight alignments. Nine wide, 15 slot, one backfield. All 13 targets came from out wide or in the slot. So he's essentially a wide receiver. He's playing slot
40:30receiver, wide, wide out. It's it is the JSN role. I know that we kind of threw that around in the offseason. It seems a
40:36little bit ridiculous. That's what it is with Mayer playing in tight as uh kind of I think that they call it like the oh
40:43this is where I get get confused of the Y tight end and the F tight end, but I'm gonna say uh inline Mayor is the Y tight
40:48end. Um but it also kind of brings me to a bigger point of tight ends belong in your flex spot. I've been tweeting about this recently, but five of the top 12 scorers in PPR leagues among flex
41:00position players, so running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, Bowowers, George KD, Harold Fannon, Kenyan Sadi, Jawan Johnson. I think in this day and age where these wide receivers are a little bit rough. You can see from Josh Norris
41:12here, the Titan 17 is averaging more points per game than the wide receiver 33 in the RB25. you're going to be in spots this year with by-weeks and
41:18injuries and shakiness and like I'm straight up playing guys like Jawan Johnson and Harold Fannon over your Brian Thomas' of the world and your other uh shaky starts. Even guys like Roman Dunay I think you play uh like a
41:31Jawan Johnson over those guys on a week- toeek basis. Um but I will say as well on the other side of this game, Jawan Johnson was awesome. 23.3 PPR points and then he has an every week start and a guy that you can flex if you took a
41:45flyer on him late and you know maybe you paired him with a KD like hoping okay KD can turn up down the stretch Jawan
41:50Johnson early season fill in I think you can just straight up put both of those guys uh in your lineup moving forward
41:57and then I will say as well Tyler Shuck is on the other side of this game right we're talking Raiders vers Saints he is
42:04the QB22 and E paper play QB 17 in QBR so he's like a he's like an average quarterback but he's the QB3 in points
42:10per game due to uh really fun game scripts and a lot of pass attempts from Kell Moore and uh his rushing ability.
42:1724.1 points per game. Uh one of the best breakout quarterbacks we have seen this season as kind of like a really fun I'm trying to think of a good comp, but you guys get what I'm saying. Like where he's not he's not an MVP conversations,
42:28you know what I mean? But he is fantasy friendly is how I would put it. uh in a similar way to kind of what Bo Knicks
42:34did last night against the Rams of just like thriving in chaos, giving you rushing, giving you a lot of uh fun game
42:40scripts, all of that. Uh it's all there. Then my seventh takeaway is what's wrong. This is my what's wrong category where it's just we are now 3 weeks into the year. Small sample, but we can start
42:52doing stuff like this where you guys we I talked about it earlier with the Cardinals. Before the season, we had implied Vegas point totals for every single offense based on their look ahead spreads, overunders, all of that. How
43:04many points should these teams be putting up? We have the five biggest overperformers. That would be the Panthers, the Raiders, the Saints, the Jets, and the Cardinals. We have the five biggest underperformers, the
43:15Patriots. The Rams 21st in scoring. They've had a couple of tough, you know, we had they've had the Broncos, the Niners, week one was weird. Uh they've had some tough goes. I think the Rams will be just fine. Then you have the Chargers. They're underperforming.
43:27They're scoring by 16 spots, the Packers by 15, the Bengals by 10. I think the Bengals will be fine. It's just that
43:32they were projected to be the second best off and said they're the 12th best. I think that they're going to creep up over the entire season. Again, still a
43:38very small sample, but the two I'm most concerned about on this list is New England and the Chargers. And we'll talk
43:45about New England first. Kind of like what's wrong with New England? What do we think about it? They're currently bottom five in every matric. Their O line is regressed. Their schedule's tougher this year. Drake May is not himself. I don't know if he's healthy.
43:56He They won't acknowledge a shoulder issue. Now you don't have AJ Brown. Uh I have some question about what what Josh
44:02McDaniels even is as a play caller and schemer at this point. I think it was just kind of a I wouldn't say a it was a
44:09fluke, but I think it was a I think it was circumstance as to why they were so good last year is what I
44:16would say. Uh they are now the 25th team in implied points. Now it is against Buffalo, right? Buffalo's a tough defense or just a tough game in general, I suppose. uh going on the road versus Buffalo. But Vegas has these guys
44:27projected as a bottom 10 offense against the Bills. Now, if it was against like a neutral team, like let's just say, I don't know, we could throw out the
44:32Packers. I guess maybe instead of 25th, maybe they'd be like 21st or 20th, but they're definitely like bottom 10 to 12 in terms of offensive output by Vegas expectations. And that's just not what you drafted. You drafted a Patriots
44:45offense that you thought what 31US 18 would be in the top half of teams in the NFL. Now it's bottom half. On top of
44:52that, when you're not scoring points, when you're not moving the ball, uh when the offensive line regresses, you're in a spot where there's a nasty split.
44:59Sadly, Raandre is no longer in the doghouse. He fumbles last week. He is still given 53% of the snaps, given uh
45:06less rush attempts, but more targets. It's still just like a really ugly split. Neither of these guys even cross seven PPR points. And if you're not
45:12scoring and you essentially get panced by the Jacksonville Jaguars, uh there's not enough to go around in this backfield. So, both of these guys on a week- toeek basis are going to get ranked as like my RB27, my RB28 in a given week. Uh, and
45:26then we could talk about the other side of this game before we move on to the Chargers offense, the Jaguars backfield.
45:32Rodriguez, Chris Rodriguez is now firmly like uh he he's pretty much droppable down to 22% of the snaps, but a really
45:38nasty four-way split where Tuan has less than 50% of the snaps and he only gets to 17 PPR points as a top 12 finish on the back of a charity touchdown from Trevor Lawrence who really who knows
45:50what the hell that was or what the thought process was, but regardless, Ton gets a touchdown there. He's fine, but he's really more of a backend RB2, uh, high-end RB3 than his box score would
46:02suggest. Then we have the Chargers. What's wrong with the Chargers? Do we think that the Chargers can bounce back? Sadly, I wish I had better news. Uh, but
46:09I don't. It's full-blown panic mode on both the Patriots and the Chargers. These to me are like the two biggest disappointments in all of football this
46:15year. We can talk about this first up, which is really concerning. From Ryan Heath over on Twitter, three members of the Chargers backfield ran more routes than Hampton. Keian Mitchell, Kamani Vidal, and the fullback Alec Engold.
46:27Another negative for Hampton on the bottom here. This is now a three-man backfield. Kamani Vidal seeing season highs in snaps and opportunities. Vidal was at just 10 snaps and zero touches through the first two weeks. He is now
46:39fully involved, getting 17 snaps and four opportunities. Even worse, Hampton got all the carries inside the 10 yard line. Kia Mitchell entered the game to score on a short third and goal reception after Hampton hadn't scored on two carries. So they are really starting
46:52to shift things away from him. The snap shares are falling, the opportunities falling, and it's honestly a good lesson of and we kind of just saw with Ashen Genty. I've been chasing him in trade target videos. I I still feel decent
47:03about Ashen Genty, but like volume isn't guaranteed if the production doesn't come eventually. And with the Chargers really kind of flailing and and grasping at straws, the Amarian Hampton Bellcow
47:17workload isn't going to stick if he's not producing on that volume. So now it's a really big issue for the Chargers. I'd be full-blown panic mode. Uh they're implied for the 28th most
47:28points this week. Now they are against Seattle, but still they have a tough schedule for the next like eight weeks.
47:34They're going to be projected in the bottom 10 offenses moving forward until something changes. Uh I wouldn't hold my breath. I mean, we'll see. I mean, I still love Herbert. I still love McDaniel. Like, all these guys on paper, the offensive line, it just hasn't
47:45worked for whatever reason. Now, on the other side of this game, DJ Moore goes absolutely nuts. Now, I will say I I
47:51want to give credit to DJ Moore while also not spooking the Concaid guys. You got to remember Concade is a tight end, right? Tight ends are going to give you dud weeks. Tight ends aren't going to go
48:0220 plus PPR points every single week. Concade was on a good stretch here, but he's still going to be absolutely fine. It's from Jay Zachares. uh just three
48:09targets against the Chargers, but he did finish with a 64.5% route share. That would still be better than anything that he did in 2025. DJ Moore has outtargeted
48:16Concaid 17 to9. But it's a twoame sample. It's a twoame sample. I wouldn't go crazy. I just think the Bills are now
48:24in a spot where they're going to be passing the ball a ton and they're also going to be scoring a lot of points. So,
48:30I just think it's going to be week to week whether it's DJ Moore who has the big spike week or Don Kade who has the big spike week. We're talking about a
48:36wide receiver two and the tight end you drafted as like the tight end eight or nine off the board. Those are all fine
48:42outcomes. I would still have Don Concincaid as a top five tight end rest of season. I would probably have DJ Moore as a top
48:4818ish wide receiver rest of season. These are both big big hits if you drafted them. I'll also mention sadly a downgrade for James Cook. Tai Johnson in his first game back from injury gets Cook's snap share to 67% a season low
49:02and then his route share down to 32% from the mid-50s a season low. So now he has fully reverted back to his 2025
49:10workload, which is fine, but it just means the ceiling of like a 20 plus point per game season is no longer there. I think he's probably going to
49:16finish this year somewhere around the 17 point per game range, but we'll see. We'll see. These things do bounce up and down in terms of usage. Uh and then some
49:23other guys for what's wrong. They didn't show up on this graphic, but they have been frustrating. You have the Buccaneers and the Vikings. They were
49:28just kind of both in a nasty game I wanted to talk about. This is Iowa vers Michigan stuff, fellas. 42.9% success
49:36rate on one side, 41.7% success rate on the other side. For what it's worth, like a like a decent success rate, it's
49:42like 65% 60% something. I I guess those are those are really solid. Like if you just get a success rate in the range of
49:48like, you know, Yeah. Like 60 65% is what you're looking for. Um, you can even see like 60 66.7% on series started with a pass for the Vikings. Still not
50:00enough. Ugly ugly game. The Bucks look broken. Uh, Baker Mayfield going to be out for multiple weeks with a thumb injury. Uh, so that means we downgrade everybody because the biggest issue for the Bucks and maybe we see them trade for somebody, but I'd be shocked.
50:13The issue is that their backup quarterbacks are no good. and not only no good, but they're rushing first quarterbacks. Like they're military
50:19academy style quarterbacks of uh Jaylen Daniels, who is honestly a really fun dude out of uh Kansas. But you're talking about like him and Eastn Stick. These are guys who uh you know,
50:31primarily scrambling quarterback. So that's going to crush all of the receiving ceiling for Ibuka, Chris Godwin, all of those guys. Uh Bucky Irvin gets banged up at the end of this game. And then kind of what we've seen kind of it's essentially the Malik
50:43Willis offense. like if if we are going to dumb things down. So, I think everybody across the board until Baker Mayfield gets back gets downgraded and then even when Baker Mayfield gets back, I've been holding my breath the entire
50:54year that Baker Mayfield would figure it out. Uh, but it's just been really ugly. Now, I will say the Vikings are the one team that I feel the best about. I know
51:01that they just traded away McCarthy. I know Kyler Murray looked terrible in week three, but this is a team that's projected for the 12th most points next
51:07week verse the Dolphins. Now, yes, it's the Dolphins, but to me, that at least signals that they are a top 20 offense moving forward. Kyler goes down in week
51:14one. You have the weird rain game in week two. Jefferson gets hurt in week three. I wouldn't go nuts that this is a
51:20bad offense just yet. Uh I'll also say it seems like Jefferson is going to be more like week to week. Any game that he
51:26misses, Jordan Addison is a borderline must start wide receiver. He had a 38% target share in this game as a top 12
51:32wide receiver on the week in a game that Jefferson left with an ankle injury. Now, my eighth takeaway here is from the
51:40Colts Texans game. Uh, we had a Colts concentration of targets. Then we also have a dead zone David Montgomery to talk about here on the Colt side of things. This is from Jacob Sanderson outlining that all but two of the Colts
51:5135 targets went to Josh DS, Tyler Warren, Keenan Allen, and Jonathan Taylor. JT had 26 of 30 RB opportunities. This is what I would be begging Frank Reich to do uh for my Jets, right? I was talking
52:04about this guy Mlean getting routes and Johnny uh Woods getting routes and targets. This is how things should look.
52:10We talked about it last week with the Browns. Condense things. Condense things. Make it so your best players are touching the football. And I think someone that's really underrated here uh is Shane Stken. Whether it's fantasy
52:21football circles, whether it's real circles, which by the way, I'm turning the AC up. We are starting to sweat in here. But Shane Styen is underrated as a play caller, as a play designer, and as a
52:32something that I think is so important in the modern NFL is being mindful of, hey, these are our best players. Let's
52:39really make sure that every target, every touch is handled with care and are going to one of our playmakers instead of a random player on our team. That's my rant. But we have a spot here where
52:52all of the Colts are in really really good spots where like uh JT is getting all of the JT is in a I doubt you can
52:58buy JT, but he has his first like down game of the year. JT is a bellcow bellcow that we used to clamor for back
53:04in the day when he would be splitting reps with uh Dion Jackson and it was it was like Dion Jackson of course Naimm
53:11Hines Tyler Goodson for a second but now it's it's legitimately just him. Uh then we can also talk about David Montgomery and I don't want to take any victory laps here because there's still a lot of season left but I I was told to uh write
53:22my apology after he scored three touchdowns on like a 3.8 yards per carry in week one. Uh we now have this from
53:28Ryan Heath Montgomery. It was a 6535 split, but Woody Marks received both of the backfield's touches inside the 10. And why that's a big deal is that they aren't subbing situationally. They're
53:39sub they're subbing by drive. So if the offense gets to the red zone on a marks drive, he stays in. That's what happened
53:46today. Uh so that's not great, right? Right. In a perfect world, Montgomery kind of operates like Charbanet last year where let's say in the perfect world where Woody Marks and gets you to the red zone. Uh you kind of count on
53:59coach to rip him out of the game, get Montgomery in there for the short yardage. And that would be somewhat plausible given that Woody Marks is a
54:05smaller running back. That's not what's happened so far. And that's a big issue. Now, in better, more uh I guess like
54:10positive game scripts, you could hope for the for better, but the Colts aren't a good defense really by any means. We
54:16saw Kenneth. Now, I know Kenneth Walker uh or not Kenneth Walker. Yeah, Kenneth Walker. I know Kenneth Walker is Kenneth Walker and he ran crazy on the Colts, but at a certain point, you're not going
54:26to get layups every single week. Uh so, David Montgomery. Yeah, he's like he's a backend Derby, too. He's a dead zone
54:31running back, and that's completely fine. He's going to have his weeks, but that is where I'm at. Then, we have our ninth takeaway. Zayflower's edgemaster.
54:39I am Damn, I think all of these don't even have the numbers included uh when I keep showing them, but here we are. Z
54:46Flower's Edgemaster. Um, he just continues to tease us, man. We need him to stay healthy. I really hope um that he can get healthy. Is this is this Ravens bye coming up here? We We need Flowers to play a full game because
54:58what's happened here is on a 29% snap share in week one, he gives you five catches, 150 yards, and a touchdown. 33%
55:06of the snaps in week three, he gives you five catches, 84 yards. He has looked awesome. He has looked terrific. Um, I
55:12have a litany of stats here to show you why he's awesome. This is from Ryan Heath up top, uh, where his target
55:20shares have been 33% and 30% despite playing literally none of these games.
55:26Dagel 150 receiving yards on 11 routes in week one, 30% target share on 12 routes in week three. Uh, then you have
55:32Sean Sied, this is a Declan Doyle tweet of he's run crossing routes on 52% of his routes in 2026 where that was 10.7%,
55:3913.8% 8% and 14.1% in the three previous seasons. We're getting these crossers and this fun usage. We just need the guy's hamstring to figure it out. And I hate to be uh unfair. I will say I'm looking at the stretch of games here.
55:51You have Tennessee, Atlanta, and Cleveland. I don't know if I like that or hate that. Those are three layups where he
55:57could crush, but there are three layups to the point where at two and one, do the Ravens decide to play it safe with
56:04Flowers? Do they feel like Dallas was a tough opponent? I don't know. Maybe I'm reading too deep into it, but can we can we just get Z Flowers at a full route
56:11participation? That would be awesome. All right, 10th takeaway here is new quarterback to jumpst start Atlanta and Washington. Of course, Atlanta gets Penn. Penn was fourth in QBR this week, which is just ES ESPN's
56:24quarterback rating. To me, it's better than passer rating. Uh it won't be the case every week that Pennix plays really well, but we now have a huge sample of
56:31PennX and London looking awesome together. Over their last seven games, they are at 24.8 eight points per game for Drake London. Then you have
56:37Washington. Mariota comes in here first game beats Seattle uh and looks good. Respected David Blau as well. They are 14th in EPA per play, 18th in success rate despite some up and downs of Jaden
56:49Daniels and him getting hurt and then Mariota having to play against the Seattle Seahawks. They still put up 30 plus on the Seattle Seahawks. Uh very
56:56impressed with Washington's play caller David Blau here. I will say the backfield's a mess. I'm not really starting any of JCM or Shawn White,
57:01whoever. Uh, but you can start both Terry McLaren and Stfan Diggs. I know that Stfan Diggs has a disappointing game here for the first time this season, but he actually ran a 77% route share, the highest for him on the entire
57:12season. Seven targets here. He now has three straight games of six plus targets. Don't panic on Diggs. He's absolutely fine moving forward. But
57:19Terry McLaren is now back in the wide receiver 2 conversation. I put this tweet out. His 17game pace starting from week one of 2025. He of course misses the early season of 2025, but he has an eight-game sample with Mariota where
57:33he's the wide receiver 16. He has a five-game sample with all other quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels included in there as the wide receiver 56. He goes I mean I was going to say goes nuts, but he scores a touchdown in this game. He
57:44plays well. He gives you uh nine targets, six catches, 77 yards, and a touchdown. That is all you could ask for from McLaren. I think that he is going
57:51to be a boom bust wide receiver three moving forward. And then we have a messy backfield cleanup courtesy of JJ Zachares. You guys know him and love him. Later round.com, late round QB on Twitter. Follow him everywhere. But this
58:04was me running out of time making this outline. So this is every backfield I haven't covered yet. Uh on the left side, ETN played his last snap in the middle of the third quarter on Sunday. Kamar saw 15 snaps to Kendrick Miller's nine and CJ Dolom seven. Kamar
58:18and Miller split the backfield rush of six to four. So, it's going to be pretty nasty in terms of how this thing shakes out behind ETN, but I would probably
58:24prefer Kamara to Kendra Miller. They both deserve to be rostered. Then you have Aaron Jones. He It was essentially an 8020 split, 7525 split, something like that. Aaron Jones handled all the work, but was still pretty inefficient.
58:36Uh Rico D sideline, Jaylen Warren had an 81% rush share and was awesome. He ended up with like I think he ended up with like over 100 rushing yards, something like that. Jaylen Warren ends up with Yeah. 17 carries, 127 rushing yards,
58:48three catches, 49 yards. He gives you 20 plus PPR points without a touchdown. Really impressive from him. Ta Spears entered the game banged up versus the Giants. So Pard came out here and balled out. We'll kind of see how that shakes
58:59out moving forward. I think it was really more that the Giants suck. Uh but 13.6 PPR points for Tony Pard. Brilland
59:05Allen played all of the offensive snaps once Bree went down with injury. Essentially, Brilen Allen is the handcuffed own. It just comes down to how long Bree Hall is
59:16out for, if at all. Quinchan Judkins saw a season high 62% rush share against the Panthers. Still hasn't had a game with
59:22four yards per carry. That really sucks. He also uh been above 40% route share twice in his career. Both games coming in 2025. So that's really tough. He's not getting the receiving workload you
59:33want. Uh and then he's also not efficient on his carries. Damn, man. I I like I was happy that he got 70 rushing
59:39yards. I was just checking his box score. Still yet to go over 10 PBR points and I'm only mad about that cuz he was a sneaky start. Uh, and I thought
59:46with the 70 rushing yards at least he would have had I I just knew he hit the, uh, the higher on the pick him entry,
59:52uh, 59 and a half rushing yards, I was expecting a better day than 9.9 PPR points. I'll be honest, Brooks was out.
59:58Hubard saw a season high 84% snap share, 83% of the total carries. He is a uh, Bellcow moving forward in any game that Brooks is not in. And then Thursday night, Caleb Johnson outnapped Lloyd 22
60:09to 15. Neither guys were playable, but that's going to do it for us today. our top 10 takeaways from week three as we look ahead to week four. Uh cheated with
60:20a little extra one there for some messy backfield cleanup. But appreciate you guys watching. As always, if you enjoyed, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, comment something down below, and I'll see y'all in
60:32the next one. [music and singing] stones like this froze.
60:51I like frozen.