Ron Stewart artwork

Top 10 Takeaways You NEED to Know From The 2025 Fantasy Football Season (Rookie Report)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

59 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jan 16, 2026
Published
Fri, January 16, 2026
77
Player insights
77
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAllen RobinsonAlvin KamaraAmon-Ra St. BrownArian SmithAshton JeantyBijan RobinsonBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersBucky IrvingCaleb WilliamsCeeDee LambChristian McCaffreyChuba Hubbard
Player analysis

Player insights

77

A.J. Brown

PositiveProjection30:54

AJ Brown finished as wide receiver six in his second season (2020), demonstrating that year-two receivers can produce elite fantasy results. The source cites this historical precedent to caution against overreacting to 2025's year-two receiver busts, using Brown alongside Puka Nacua (WR2), Ja'Marr Chase (WR4), Justin Jefferson (WR4), DK Metcalf (WR10), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR10) as evidence of consistent second-year receiver upside.

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Allen Robinson

PositiveProjection31:17

Allen Robinson had a huge breakout in his year-two season with Blake Bortles in 2015, averaging 19 points per game. The source uses Robinson as evidence of consistent second-year receiver upside, alongside Odell Beckham Jr. (21 PPG in 2015) and Josh Gordon (legendary 2013 season in year two).

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Alvin Kamara

NegativeProjection29:08

Ron Stewart identifies Kamara as part of the mid-level talent archetype (aging, top of depth chart) that delivered value outside the running back dead zone in 2024. Kamara was good in 2024 as part of a strong running back season, though the source notes the high-end upside was not as pronounced as in 2025 when five running backs hit 20+ PPG. Stewart uses Kamara as an example of the type of back that can be targeted later in drafts to avoid the dead zone.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection30:59

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as wide receiver ten in his second year, exemplifying the consistent pattern of elite second-year receiver production. The source uses St. Brown alongside other year-two breakouts (Puka Nacua WR2, AJ Brown WR6, Ja'Marr Chase WR4, Justin Jefferson WR4, DK Metcalf WR10) to demonstrate that second-year receivers can reliably produce elite fantasy results.

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Arian Smith

NegativeBust9:41

Ron Stewart has never seen a player run more routes and do less with them than Aryan Smith; 43% route participation with dead-last efficiency metrics across the board—worst PFF grade, worst first downs per route run, worst yards per route run.

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Ashton Jeanty

PositiveProjection4:14

Led the 2025 rookie class with 245 PPR points, finishing at number nine overall in PPR output across the entire 17-game era since 2021; despite this strong output, the source notes that only one 2025 rookie (Jeanty) cracked the top 18 in PPR output over the last five seasons (2021–2025), indicating the overall 2025 rookie class was underwhelming relative to historical rookie cohorts. The source dismisses talk that Jeanty isn't good or is another Ra Richardson; Jeanty looks different and good, with a 60-yard receiving TD against the Texans (best defense in NFL) as his best game. His 13.4% target share is nuts and gives him sky-high ceiling. He feels like rookie-year Bijan Robinson, and Jeanty will bounce back with new coaching staff (Fernando Mendoza) next year.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection26:55

Ron Stewart identified Bijan as one of five running backs with 'legendary upside' outlined in July 2024 (alongside McCaffrey, Gibbs, Achane, and Buckner). Bijan delivered 20+ PPG in 2024, validating the early projection. He was a top-two-round pick and one of only five RBs to finish with 20+ PPG, representing elite high-end talent. Stewart notes that even Bijan's 22 PPG ceiling 'still wasn't crazy at a high-end' compared to historical standards.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

PositiveBust41:45

Brian Thomas was a brutal miss in 2024 as a high-conviction draft target who significantly underperformed expectations. The source loved Thomas pre-draft but he delivered disappointing production, exemplifying the broader underperformance of second-year wideouts that season.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveProjection41:50

Brock Bowers was credited as a hit in 2024. The source notes that injuries are factored into both hits and misses in fantasy football evaluation, and Bowers was correctly identified as a strong selection despite injury considerations being part of the game.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeInjury25:05

Bucky Irving was a miss in 2024 due to injury, which the source acknowledges as a factor in draft outcomes alongside other injury-affected players like Lamar Jackson and Malik Nabers.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection40:41

Williams was good as a late-round QB in 2025, part of the late-round QB success trend that outperformed early-round QB investments. The source noted that Drake Maye crushed, Stafford crushed, Trevor Lawrence was great, and Caleb Williams was good—validating the strategy of waiting on quarterback in 2025 drafts.

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CeeDee Lamb

NegativeInjury34:12

Lamb was banged up in 2024, contributing to the decline in high-end wide receiver scoring; the source cites this injury context as part of the explanation for why only three wide receivers hit 20+ PPG in 2024-2025 versus seven in 2022-2023.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection26:55

Christian McCaffrey set a five-year high of 24.5 points per game in 2024, matching his 2023 high and establishing himself as the only running back to touch the 23+ PPG 'legendary upside' threshold over the last five years. The source identified McCaffrey as one of five running backs with legendary upside outlined in July 2024 (alongside Gibbs, Bijan, Achane, and Jonathan Taylor), and he delivered 20+ points per game, validating the early projection. The source calls the season 'absolutely nuts' and notes that high-end upside has 'really only been shown by McCaffrey' over the past five years.

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Chuba Hubbard

NegativeRole29:08

Ron Stewart identifies Hubbard as exemplifying the mid-level talent archetype (aging, top of depth chart) that delivered value outside the running back dead zone in 2024. Stewart notes he was not in on Hubbard early, but recognizes Hubbard as a strong alternative to top-two-round picks, representing the type of back that can be targeted later in drafts to avoid the dead zone.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection0:30

Tight end with 80+ PFF grade, placing him among elite rookie performers historically; the source notes that 80+ grades have historically been earned by studs like Olave, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jaylen Waddle, Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin, though the source cautions against over-interpreting tight end grades due to limited research. Loveland is part of a crowded Bears receiving corps alongside Luther Burden and Roman Wilson, creating uncertainty about whether Burden's route participation can scale up next season.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeRole12:01

DJ Moore's status for next season is uncertain and represents a variable that could impact Luther Burden's role and route participation in the Bears offense.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue35:57

Swift was a strong running back value in 2024, drafted in rounds 6-9 (where he would have been a fifth-round pick six years ago); the source identifies him as part of the late-round RB archetype that provided excellent value as an alternative to the dead zone, avoiding the mid-round tier while still delivering strong production.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveProjection27:03

Ron Stewart notes they liked Pickens, who was good in 2024, validating the early projection.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveProjection32:20

Achane was one of five running backs to finish with 20+ points per game in 2024 (alongside McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor), part of one of the best high-end running back seasons in recent years.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection32:39

Henry was good in 2024, part of a strong running back season tier below the five 20+ PPG scorers (McCaffrey, Achane, Gibbs, Robinson, Taylor); the source notes the high-end upside was not as pronounced as the elite tier.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveProjection30:59

DK Metcalf finished as wide receiver ten in his second season (2020) when Russell Wilson received MVP buzz; the source describes Metcalf as 'a monster in his second year,' highlighting elite second-year receiver production. Metcalf is part of a cohort of second-year receivers (Puka Nacua WR2, AJ Brown WR6, Ja'Marr Chase WR4, Justin Jefferson WR4, Amon-Ra St. Brown WR10) that the source uses to demonstrate consistent year-two breakout potential.

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Emeka Egbuka

PositiveValue6:46

Despite finishing as WR28 in points per game and propelling teams early before hurting them down the stretch, Egbuka was drafted in the sixth-plus round and finished as an above-average pick by fantasy points over replacement; he outperformed other receivers in his draft range (Ricky Pearsall, Jerry Jeudy, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin) and was above Stefon Diggs, Jauan Jennings, and Deebo Samuel in FPOR. The source notes that while the way he ended his season left a sour taste, he was a good wide receiver pick in his range, not a bust. He started his rookie season on a Ja'Marr Chase/Puka Nacua trajectory with 20.5 points per game through his first five games and amazing per-route metrics, but his production collapsed after he and Baker Mayfield were banged up and the Buccaneers fell from MVP-conversation contention to missing the playoffs, with final per-route metrics deteriorating significantly: 11.5 points per game, 1.75 yards per route run, poor first downs per route run, and poor PFF grade.

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Evan Engram

PositiveProjection32:59

Gibbs was among the elite running backs in 2024, scoring 20+ points per game; he was one of only three backs to reach that threshold, indicating scarcity at the position's high end.

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Garrett Wilson

NegativeProjection28:46

Ron Stewart notes Garrett Wilson got bailed out with an injury; Stewart believes if Wilson had stayed healthy and played with Brady Cook over the final stretch, he would not have produced like he did in the first few weeks. This suggests Wilson's early-season performance was buoyed by a stronger QB situation before Cook took over.

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Gunnar Helm

PositiveBreakout17:52

Gunner Helm is a year-two tight end breakout candidate who crushes the two wide receivers in the room across per-play metrics: targets per route run, yards per route run, first downs per route run, and PFF grade.

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Harold Fannin

PositiveProjection15:09

Outscores Cole Kmet Loveland on 71% of the routes. Demonstrates really good targets per route run, second only to Luther Burden in the rookie class. Achieves 1.68 yards per route run given his quarterback situation with Shedeur Sanders, which the source calls 'nuts.' Also looks amazing in first downs per route run. Ranked as a top-five dynasty tight end and described as a 'really fun player.' Round three pick with elite efficiency despite playing with a rookie QB.

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Hunter Henry

PositiveValue27:54

Ron Stewart notes Hunter Henry ended up being a really solid late-round tight end in 2024, validating the source's late-round TE strategy.

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Irv Smith

PositiveProjection16:42

Cooled off during the end of the season, but the entire Chargers offense experienced similar decline. On a per-route basis, he looks good for a tight end. The source ranks him as a top-12 dynasty tight end moving forward, with his value tied to being attached to Justin Herbert.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeInjury30:45

Ron Stewart notes Chase lost quarterback Joe Burrow in 2024, a significant disruption to his production. Stewart cites this as part of the explanation for the decline in high-end wide receiver scoring, noting only three WRs hit 20+ PPG in 2024-2025 versus seven in 2022-2023. Historically, Chase finished as the wide receiver four in his second season (2020), exemplifying the pattern that year-two breakouts can deliver elite fantasy production.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveProjection32:20

Jahmyr Gibbs was one of five running backs to finish with 20+ points per game in 2024, alongside Christian McCaffrey (24.5 PPG), Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and De'Von Achane. This represents one of the best high-end running back seasons in recent years, with five elite scorers compared to prior years' lower elite-tier production.

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Jake Ferguson

PositiveProjection41:21

Ferguson finished as TE9 in 2025 as a late-round pick, exemplifying the late-round TE success trend.

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Jakobi Meyers

NegativeRole13:28

The Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers following Travis Hunter's bye-week injury, indicating a shift in receiving corps composition and role allocation.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection41:01

Hurts finished as QB7 in PPG despite early-round draft position, exemplifying the brutal 2025 early-round QB performance trend.

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Jalen Nailor

PositiveBreakout25:52

Jalen Nailor was the source's biggest whiff by far—a player the source wasn't bought into due to concerns about Sam Darnold's efficiency and the Kubiak offense being run-heavy. However, Nailor ascended to best wide receiver in the NFL status in 2024, demonstrating that year-three breakout wide receivers have no ceiling and must always be factored into draft strategy.

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James Conner

NegativeInjury35:31

Conner got hurt in 2024 but exemplified the mid-level talent archetype (aging, top of depth chart) that the source identifies as valuable outside the running back dead zone; his injury prevented him from fully capitalizing on his role.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveValue26:28

Javonte Williams was faded by the source despite going very high in ESPN leagues as the Cowboys RB1, but turned out to be a fantastic pick in 2024, validating the contrarian approach. Williams exemplifies the late-round RB archetype (rounds 6–9) that provided excellent value in 2024; he would have been a fifth-round pick six years ago, representing strong production outside the running back dead zone.

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Jayden Higgins

PositiveProjection17:30

Ron Stewart highlights Higgins as 'number one' player to keep the light on for moving forward. He shows 'pretty much like light green across the board' in efficiency metrics, attached to C.J. Stroud. The Texans were 'really conservative' with him, suggesting room for increased usage and upside in 2025.

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Jaylen Warren

PositiveValue27:21

Ron Stewart notes Warren was positioned above the green line on the Hayden Winks efficiency chart, in the 96–108 ADP range, alongside Judkins and Saquon Barkley, indicating solid late-round value.

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Joe Mixon

PositiveProjection32:39

Mixon was good in 2024, part of a strong running back season tier below the five 20+ PPG scorers (McCaffrey, Achane, Gibbs, Robinson, Taylor); the source notes the high-end upside was not as pronounced as the elite tier.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveProjection32:20

Jonathan Taylor was one of five running backs to finish with 20+ points per game in 2024, alongside Christian McCaffrey (24.5 PPG), Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De'Von Achane. Taylor was a top-two-round pick in 2024 as part of the elite tier of running backs that produced the five 20+ PPG scorers, representing the highest-tier talent commanding premium draft capital.

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Josh Allen

NegativeProjection40:00

Allen finished as QB1 overall in 2025 but failed to provide a 1+ PPG advantage over late-round QBs Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford. Early-round QB investment was brutal relative to positional advantage, contrasting sharply with McBride's 4+ PPG edge at TE.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection30:50

Ron Stewart cites Justin Jefferson as historical evidence that year two receivers can produce elite fantasy results. Jefferson finished as the wide receiver four in his second season (2020), demonstrating that elite second-year receiver production is achievable and historically repeatable. Stewart uses Jefferson as a historical precedent to caution against overreacting to 2025's year two receiver busts.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeRole31:22

The source questions how much Keenan Allen's slot usage impacted Ladd McConkey's 2024 production, suggesting Allen's role may have been a limiting factor for McConkey's fantasy output.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveProjection41:21

Pitts finished as TE4 in 2025 as a late-round pick, exemplifying the late-round TE success trend that provided better value than early-round TE investments outside of McBride.

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Kyle Williams

NegativeValue18:52

The source will keep the light on for Kyle Williams who has had some big games, but is not willing to spend a seventh-round pick on him, indicating ADP concerns limit interest.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveValue25:40

Kyren Williams was a solid performer in 2024, delivering value as a player the source wasn't initially drafting but who produced well, validating a contrarian approach.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveValue30:00

Ron Stewart identifies McConkey as a 'really nice buy low opportunity' heading into 2025, citing potential headwinds in 2024 including Keenan Allen slot usage and offensive line injuries (Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater) that may have suppressed his production. Stewart suggests the Chargers offense could improve significantly without Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, making McConkey an attractive target at a discount despite his 2025 year-two bust season.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeInjury41:11

Lamar Jackson was banged up the entire 2025 season and suffered a three-game stretch of sub-10 PPR points per game, killing fantasy value in those stretches; exemplified early-round QB disappointment.

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Luther Burden

NegativeBreakout10:15

Luther Burden led the rookie receiver class in targets per route run, yards per route run, and first downs per route run, plus led all wide receivers in PFF grade with 8.5 PPG. However, his 45% route participation creates a low sample size concern; he was never a viable best-ball or redraft option this season despite elite efficiency metrics. The source loves his talent but warns his price will be expensive next year and the floor is much lower than ceiling comparisons to AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Puka Nacua suggest—more comparable to boom-bust cases like Kadarius Toney or Christian Watson. He ran only 62% of the routes and an 11.4% target share when Roman Wilson was back on the team, raising questions about whether his routes can scale up.

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Malik Nabers

NegativeBust25:05

The source avoided drafting Malik Nabers and credits this as a successful miss, implying Nabers underperformed or was injured in 2024.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeBust25:35

Mark Andrews produced nothing in 2024, failing to deliver any fantasy value despite being a draft consideration.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeBust28:30

Ron Stewart notes they were not drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. (Marv), a fade that proved correct. Harrison was a bust in 2025 as a year-two receiver, part of a cohort of second-year wideouts that failed to meet expectations.

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Matthew Golden

NegativeBust17:00

Ron Stewart calls Golden 'by far like the most dead rookie receiver' with 'really bad' per-route numbers despite a good playoff game (4 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD—his first of the season). The Packers rotate their wide receivers heavily, and Stewart states 'I just don't feel good about Golden.' Stewart held firm on Luther Burden over Golden in dynasty rookie drafts and is glad that decision worked out, describing Golden as 'just straight-up bad at football' in 2024.

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Montrell Johnson

NegativeRole23:17

Montrell Johnson Jr. has functioned as a David Montgomery-lite backup option behind De'Andre Swift in the Eagles' offense, suggesting limited lead-back opportunity and a secondary role in the backfield.

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Odell Beckham

PositiveProjection31:12

Odell Beckham Jr. was a 21 points-per-game wide receiver in his second year (2015), demonstrating elite second-year production. The source uses Beckham alongside Allen Robinson (19 PPG in year two with Blake Bortles in 2015) and Josh Gordon (legendary 2013 season in his second year) as historical evidence supporting the pattern of year-two receiver breakouts.

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Parker Washington

PositiveBreakout13:28

Emerged as a breakout option after Travis Hunter's bye-week injury, recording three 100-yard receiving games in his last four games. The source noted he 'looks amazing.' Also identified as a year-three wide receiver who performed well in 2025, part of the cohort of year-three and year-four receivers that dominated the season.

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Pat Bryant

PositiveRole18:11

Pat Bryant is worth monitoring; he started running a lot more routes as the season went on and could become a big contributor moving forward, particularly in the playoffs.

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Patrick Mahomes

NegativeInjury27:30

Patrick Mahomes was very good in 2024 before tearing his ACL, validating the source's high expectations for the Chiefs offense until the injury derailed his season.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveBreakout30:09

Ron Stewart notes Puka Nacua was a year three wide receiver stud in 2025, one of only two receivers to post 20+ points per game alongside JSN. Stewart emphasizes this is a one-year sample and cautions against overreacting to the year three breakout trend. Historically, Nacua finished as the wide receiver two in his second season (2020), representing one of the highest second-year receiver finishes and reinforcing the pattern of elite year-two breakouts.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeBust28:30

The source notes they were not drafting Jeanty, indicating a fade on the player that proved correct.

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Raheem Mostert

PositiveDepth Chart35:38

Mostert (Achane) was a top-two-round pick in 2024, part of the elite tier of running backs (JT, Achane, Gibbs, Bijan, McCaffrey) that produced the five 20+ PPG scorers; he represents the highest-tier talent that commands premium draft capital.

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Rhamondre Stevenson

PositiveRole22:25

Ramondre Stevenson is highly paid through 2026 and trusted by the Patriots; he received 40 snaps versus the Chargers compared to Audric Henderson's 26 snaps, indicating he is the lead back in what appears to be a split backfield situation with clear preference from the team.

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Roman Wilson

PositiveRole12:01

Roman Wilson's return to the team created crowding concerns for Luther Burden's role, as Burden ran only 62% of the routes with an 11.4% target share when Wilson was back on the team, raising questions about whether Burden's routes can scale up.

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Rome Odunze

PositiveValue9:24

Rome Odunze finished above the yellow line (threshold for successful draft pick) alongside DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith, indicating he was a fine pick despite a weak stretch finish. While not a huge smash, he was not a bust; the source contrasts him with actual busts like Jerry Jeudy and Calvin Ridley who never made lineups. The source identifies Odunze as a buy-low candidate after a foot injury limited his 2024 season; the source expresses interest in seeing 'what Rome Odunze looks like for a healthy 17 game season attached to Caleb Williams,' suggesting significant upside if healthy.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveProjection32:45

Saquon Barkley was the standout running back in 2024, topping out at 22 PPG. He was one of only five RBs to finish with 20+ PPG (alongside McCaffrey, Gibbs, Bijan, and Achane)—the most since 2018. However, Ron Stewart notes that even Barkley's elite production 'still wasn't crazy at a high-end,' indicating the overall high-end RB production ceiling was not exceptional compared to historical standards. Barkley was positioned above the green line on efficiency charts in the 96–108 ADP range.

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Stefon Diggs

NegativeProjection26:21

Stefon Diggs was not drafted by the source but ended up being okay in 2024, delivering moderate value.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveBreakout18:41

Terrance Ferguson is a fun year-two tight end candidate despite per-play numbers that aren't great; he was used sparingly for the Rams, suggesting opportunity for increased role.

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Tez Johnson

PositiveBreakout17:57

The source still likes Tez Johnson despite poor metrics, noting that he showed flashes when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were hurt, suggesting opportunity upside if injuries create openings.

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Tory Horton

PositiveInjury17:28

Tory Horton was looking like a fun player before he got hurt, showing positive performance trajectory before injury ended his season.

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Travis Etienne

PositiveValue35:57

Travis Etienne was a strong running back value in 2024, drafted in rounds 6–9 (where he would have been a fifth-round pick six years ago). The source identifies him as part of the late-round RB archetype that provided excellent value as an alternative to the dead zone, avoiding the mid-round tier while still delivering strong production.

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Travis Hunter

NegativeInjury13:06

Suffered a bye-week injury after the London game versus the Rams (14 targets, 8 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD in final game) and was placed on IR. The source called this 'a huge bummer' and 'one of our bigger misses this year.' Expectations must be adjusted for 2026 given the injury timeline and subsequent roster moves.

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Travis Kelce

NegativeProjection39:06

Kelce's 2018 season (17.9 PPG) is the historical benchmark for early-round TE league winners; prior to 2025, Kelce was the only TE drafted in the top four rounds of ESPN ADP since 2017 to achieve league-winner status; McBride broke this pattern in 2025.

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Trey McBride

PositiveProjection39:06

McBride posted 18.6 PPG in 2025, exceeding Travis Kelce's 2018 (17.9 PPG), Jimmy Graham's 2011 (17.2 PPG), Rob Gronkowski's 2012 (17.0 PPG), and Gronkowski's 2014 (17.5 PPG) seasons. He became the first early-round TE league winner besides Kelce since 2017, providing a 4+ PPG advantage over the next-best TEs (Bowers and Kittle at 14.7 PPG). His surge accelerated after Kyler Murray's absence midseason.

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Tyler Boyd

PositiveProjection41:21

Boyd finished as TE8 in 2025 as a late-round pick, exemplifying the late-round TE success trend.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveProjection14:48

The source considers him a top-five dynasty tight end despite recent production decline. He was amazing before Daniel Jones' injury, which the source believes hurt his per-route efficiency numbers. The source states 'I'm still a very big believer in Tyler Warren' and ranks him in the top five dynasty tight ends alongside Loveland and Fannin. On a per-route basis, he trails Cole Kmet Loveland in yards per route run and first downs per route run despite having better overall production, which the source attributes to Warren running approximately 20% more routes.

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Woody Marks

NegativeProjection22:45

Woody Marks is a fun day-three prospect but has been super inefficient. The source's biggest concern is that despite 80 catches in his sophomore year at Mississippi State, he has not translated to a 10%+ target share in his rookie season, which is unexpected for a pass-catching back and raises questions about his role in the Texans' offense. The Texans' offensive line also sucks, compounding the challenge.

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Xavier Worthy

PositiveBust30:03

Xavier Worthy was injured in the first game of 2024 and failed to deliver on year-two breakout expectations; the source was high on the Chiefs offense but Worthy produced nothing despite the team's success, exemplifying the broader pattern of second-year wideouts underperforming.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

600
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron, and if you've been following the channel for a while, you know one of my favorite videos to
0:07make is my top 10 lessons learned after every week of the fantasy football season, and I figured now that the dust
0:14has settled, league champions have been crowned, why not do one last top 10 lessons learned video from the entire 2025 season. We're
0:24going to put a bow on it all. We're going to talk about the rookie receiver report, the rookie running back carousel. We're going to go through my
0:31teams, what worked in 2025, my key takeaways, and just kind of put 2025 in its own little box, put it on the shelf, and then look forward to
0:412026 dynasty NFL draft, early early 2026 talk, all of that good stuff moving forward. As always, if you enjoy this
0:51video, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and of course, our first lesson learned here is going to be a rookie
0:59overview. Now, I call it a rookie overview, we're going to talk about the receivers, the running backs, just kind of talk about how I feel about this
1:05rookie class from a dynasty perspective, from a redraft 2026 perspective, and just kind of talk through, now that we have a
1:1417-game sample for a lot of these guys, how I feel about these rookies moving forward. Now, as always, the world-famous rookie receiver report is
1:24sponsored by Underdog. Use promo code Ron, and when you play $5, you will get $75 in bonus entries. You can, of
1:33course, find the link to that in the description and the comment section down below. And with the playoffs happening right now, there is the playoff magic
1:40promo, where you get gimme picks for the entire divisional round, which is just pretty much, you know, you can take Josh Allen higher than zero
1:49passing yards, and it's a good way to get a freebie out the gate. I don't have this in New Jersey, but I I went to
1:55Boston last week. It was really fun to be able to just mess around on the pick'em part of the Underdog app. Make
2:03sure you check it out in the description and the comment section down below. Use promo code Ron.
2:09Now, of course, I'm going to assume you're not new here, but let's say you're new here. Here is how this is works. And I I will say I
2:15tweaked this a little bit for a full season view here, because we don't really care about players ramping up in their route
2:24percentage down the stretch of the season. Like, it's already happened by now. So, we have every rookie receiver.
2:28This is the top 30 rookie wide receivers and tight ends sorted by points per game. When I say top 30, it's the top 30
2:37most routes run. So, these are just the rookies who got on the field the most.
2:41We have, of course, their name, their team, their position. We have their route percentage, so that is just over the entire year in their games that they
2:49played, what was their route participation? Anything over 80% means that they were a full-time starter.
2:55Anything below that means that they were sparingly used. Uh we have their points per game, and that's just simply PPR output per game. Targets per route run,
3:03how much volume on a per route basis were you demanding? We want anything above 20% is really solid.
3:10Yards per route run, that is your efficiency on a per route basis.
3:13Anything over two yards per route run is really solid. First downs per route run, are you not only creating yards on a per
3:18route basis, volume, but are you moving the chains and helping your offense?
3:21Anything over 10% is an elite number.
3:24And then PFF grade, how do you look on film? Anything over 80 is a really strong indicator. And I will kind of
3:30touch on this for now. All we have is Colston Loveland, uh Luther Burden barely, I mean, he just misses it. But
3:35when we talk about 80 plus in years past, that has been guys like uh Olave, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, uh Jaylen Waddle was one. You can go all
3:43the way back, where we're talking, you know, Puka, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin.
3:50A lot of studs were 80 plus PFF grade guys. I haven't done enough research on tight ends, so I wouldn't go crazy with
3:57the Colston Loveland number. It's really more that the overall takeaway from this rookie class, and it's a bummer, because we love rookie hype. We love what they
4:06do for fantasy football, right? You go back to uh 2024, and you start talking about, you know, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas and
4:13Brock Bowers and Jayden Daniels and I think the biggest takeaway from this rookie class is it was kind of underwhelming. And that sucks to say.
4:22That doesn't mean that they can't, you know, we've we've seen uh a guy like JSN dud rookie year. He was like an 8 point
4:29per game guy. Doesn't mean that these guys are doomed forever. I'm actually pretty high on a lot of these guys moving forward. It's just that in
4:35redraft for their rookie seasons, a lot of them were letdowns. When we look at just their PPR output over an entire season, we look at
4:44the uh 17-game era. So, that is since 2021, this is the highest PPR output by rookies since 2021.
4:54Outside of Ashton Jeanty with 245 PPR points at number nine, you only have one 2025 rookie in the top 18 since 2021.
5:04So, that's 2021, 2022, 23, 24, 25. Over the last five seasons, only one player cracked the top 18. You have guys like
5:12Ja'Marr Chase up top, Najee Harris, Puka, Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, Bijan Robinson, Jaylen Waddle, Jeanty. Then you go to like Bucky
5:18Irving, Gibbs. So, it's a bummer that these guys weren't super impactful.
5:24These are the 24 rookies to have 200 or more PPR points. Of course, you have Terron McMillan towards the bottom, RJ
5:30Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson, but again, overall, it's pretty weak. Now, when we just talk about the receivers and how I feel about them moving forward, we can
5:38talk about the stud wide receiver first, who Terron McMillan to me is the number one guy moving forward in all formats.
5:45He just looks really clean. Uh his only knock is that 1.84 yards per route run is a little bit low here, but
5:52his quarterback was Bryce Young. Uh 10% first downs per route run on an offense that wasn't creating a lot of first
5:57downs is pretty ridiculous. 78.7 PFF grade. 12.4 points per game is really strong as well.
6:04I think kind of the bummer of this class is there's obviously uh we'll talk about him in a second with Emeka Egbuka, but there were
6:10uh signs that maybe we could get, you know, the next Puka rookie season, the next uh Ja'Marr Chase rookie season. And Terron
6:17McMillan really falls more into the bucket of I would compare him very favorably to that class of Olave, Garrett Wilson, Drake London. Where on
6:25that spectrum he falls right where like I would say Drake London is probably above those guys, Garrett Wilson next, then Olave.
6:31Who's to say? But, you know, we're just talking like really really strong, like A- minus rookie season, top 10 pick, great prospect. Terron McMillan is as
6:39clean as they come. Now, when we talk about the rest of the rookie receivers, this is a bucket that I am calling the
6:46polarizing wide receivers. There is a wide spread spectrum of opinion on these players. And first up, we'll talk about Emeka Egbuka. And this one was so tricky
6:57this year, right? Where he has 20.5 points per game through his first five games. His per route metrics look amazing, he looks amazing.
7:05He was on a Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua style trajectory, right? If we look at like rookie receivers through their first five games, he was right there.
7:11And then something changed. I believe Egbuka was banged up. I believe that Baker Mayfield was banged up. The whole Tampa Bay
7:18Buccaneers team went from a team where Baker was in MVP conversations, and they were at the top of their division, and
7:23then they missed the playoffs. So, I wouldn't put it all on Emeka Egbuka, but point-blank, we look at his per route
7:31stuff, 11.5 points per game is fine.
7:33Commands targets, 1.75 yards per route run, not amazing. First downs per route run, not good. PFF grade, not good. So, now he goes from
7:41the next guy, right? We're putting him in conversations of Chase rookie year, Puka rookie year, Justin Jefferson rookie year, to now his rookie year
7:47looks a lot more like, you know, when we talk about those back end of the first round rookie receivers, we're talking
7:52like Jordan Addison and JSN. And those players have a very wide range. Like, I still think Egbuka has a super high
7:59ceiling that he could get it back to, but the floor is now 100% much lower.
8:04Now, I will say as well, there is this is kind of like a an add-on in terms of when we talk about
8:09lessons or takeaways from the year.
8:11There is something emotional about fantasy and how we view these players.
8:15Like, I think that the if you ask somebody, how do you feel about Emeka Egbuka for the 2025 season, they would
8:20say that Egbuka was a bust. Well, you drafted him in like the sixth plus round in a lot of these drafts. He
8:25finishes as a wide receiver 28 in points per game. He probably really propelled your team early on, and then hurt it down the stretch. But, he
8:31wasn't a bust, I wouldn't say. I think that he was a in an above-average pick.
8:35And this is going to be a chart that we reference a bunch here from Hayden Winks. Make sure you check out over at the Underdog Network.
8:43And it's just a really good recap of the year, where he looks at fantasy points over replacement in half PPR by
8:50position. And if you look at Emeka Egbuka, he is right in that like he's on the bottom of the screen there. He is
8:57above that yellow line by a good bit.
8:59Like, he's above Stefon Diggs, he's above Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel.
9:03Like, he outperformed the wide receivers in his range. I think part of it was that the wide receivers in his range
9:07were pretty weak, right? We're talking Ricky Pearsall on the bottom there, Jerry Jeudy, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin. So, he definitely
9:14succeeded, because that range of drafts were pretty bad for wide receivers. But, point-blank, he was a good wide receiver pick in that range. But again, the way that
9:24he ended his season uh kind of put a sour taste in people's mouth. And like, you can also say that about uh Rome Odunze, where I imagine
9:31Rome Odunze is close to the yellow line here.
9:37I will say I can't say that I I see Rome Odunze right now.
9:41Yeah, so he's right like you can see DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Rome Odunze. He he's just above the yellow
9:47line. If you're above the yellow line, then you were a fine pick. So, Odunze really wasn't a bust. Emeka Egbuka wasn't a bust. Um I'm not saying that
9:54they were like huge smashes, but that's just to kind of highlight the uh emotional part where it's like he sucked down the stretch, he was a bad pick.
10:01It's like no, the bad picks were guys like Jerry Jeudy where you drafted them in that range or Calvin Ridley and they
10:07never even made your lineup, right? So, we talk about these polarizing receivers. Another one who falls in this bucket is Luther Burden who you guys
10:15know I love. Sadly, we were so high on him for redraft. I mean, we were high on him for dynasty. So, dynasty he has
10:21completely had great ROI. What sucks about redraft is that there was never a time where he was a better in best ball guy really
10:29this year. There was never a time you could put Luther Burden in your lineup and feel good about it is kind of what
10:32it comes down to. That sucks, but his efficiency across the board looks bonkers. Now, the issue is this 45% route participation means that we're
10:41talking about a low sample size here.
10:43So, we don't want to get too high or too low on Luther Burden, but 8.5 points per game, he is the only guy
10:49like if we look at, you know, 8.5 points per game and above, he's the only guy to have like less than 60% of the route
10:55participation. He was just nuts given how many routes he ran like led the class in targets per out run, led the
11:00class in yards per out run, led the class in first downs per out run, led all wide receivers in PFF grade. He
11:05looks really good. Now, I do want to just just a a small word of caution. You guys know I love Luther
11:12Burden. So, this is not anti-Luther Burden. It is just his price is going to be expensive next year. And I just think
11:19it's important to note that the low sample size is scary, right? So, we have this JJ Zachariason tweet in the middle here where you look
11:27at a stat like this and it's like best yards per out run for rookie receivers since 2011, it is Luther Burden, OBJ, AJ
11:32Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase. But, when we start to look at route minimums, right? From Scott Barrett above that, that's when
11:39you can start including guys like Martevius Bryant and Rashid Shaheed and Kadarius Toney comes to mind. So, there is definitely Christian Watson comes to
11:47mind as well when we talk about these low route numbers, huge yards per out run numbers style players. The floor is a lot lower.
11:55Now, the ceiling of course still access to guys like AJ Brown and Chris Olave and all these really good players, but
12:02you look at that JJ Zachariason tweet and you're like the worst player you're getting here is AJ Brown. That's not quite what we're
12:09looking at with Luther Burden.
12:11And still, they still don't fully trust him. I think that he had in the playoff game against the Packers, I think that
12:15he had a dig route that he didn't know that he was supposed to run and it led to a Caleb Williams interception.
12:21So, he's still making some errors in this Ben Johnson offense. From this Chris Wesseling tweet on the bottom as well. He ran only 62% of the routes and
12:28an 11.4% target share with Roman Wilson back on the team. So, it's still a situation of can we scale these routes up?
12:37Is it too crowded, right? We have Loveland. We have Roman Wilson. Is DJ Moore going to be back next year?
12:41There's a lot of variables at play. I'm very confident that Luther Burden is a good player, a talented player, but there it's a wild like this is a this is
12:51as boom bust as it gets is what I'm trying to say. This could be the next Kadarius Toney. This could be
12:57you know AJ Brown part two. That's kind of the range of things that we're looking at. And then the last polarizing receiver that I will mention
13:06is going to be Travis Hunter. Now, he hasn't played since the London game versus the Rams. It's a huge bummer with him. One of our bigger
13:13misses this year. He gets 14 targets, eight catches, 101 yards and a touchdown in his last game. Bye week, gets hurt on
13:21the bye week, put on IR, the Jaguars then trade for Jakobi Meyers, then Parker Washington emerges where he has three 100-yard receiving games in his
13:29last four games. He looks amazing. And now we're getting reports like this from the GM Gladstone. Essentially, Josh Norris paraphrased it, but you can
13:38expect a higher emphasis of Travis Hunter's placement at cornerback heading into the off-season. So, I'm still a full believer in Travis
13:46Hunter. I think that he moves different.
13:47I think he's a special special talent, but also think that the the risk was always there that he would play more
13:51defense. And just it was just kind of worst case scenario where right when he could have taken off after the bye week,
13:56he gets hurt. They get Jakobi Meyers, more routes for Parker Washington. It's like this perfect storm of they're now three deep at wide receiver
14:03that they feel good with and I couldn't name a single cornerback on this team.
14:09So, now we're in a spot, right? Where Travis Hunter is probably going to play a lot more defense than we would like.
14:14It's going to create an interesting environment where in dynasty it's going to be like, well, how do you feel about him long-term?
14:20Maybe week one he plays a lot of corner, but what happens if a wide receiver gets hurt or what if like Brian Thomas gets
14:24traded during the NFL draft, which is like something that could be on the table. There's a lot of outs in dynasty
14:30and redraft it'll be interesting, right?
14:31Is he going to be like a 12th round pick? Is he going to be a better in best ball guy? I think there's a lot there,
14:36but expectations definitely have to be adjusted on Travis Hunter. Another storyline with this rookie class is this was anchored by a really strong tight
14:44tight end class. We'll start with Cole Kmet Loveland who's been awesome in these playoffs.
14:48He is the only receiver here with an 80+ PFF grade. He after Tyler Warren really got out to a hot start, Loveland has,
14:56you know, matched him in targets per out run, beat him in yards per out run, beat him in first downs per out run, beat him
15:01in PFF grade.
15:03Warren has a better production, but on, you know, almost like 20% more of the routes here.
15:07And then also, he's like getting better by the week.
15:11This is from Jacob Gibbs after that playoff game versus the Packers where he was just amazing. He had the clutch I
15:17think it was the clutch two-point conversion late in the game.
15:20He had and there was no overtime here.
15:23He had 10+ targets and 130+ yards in a playoff game at the age of 22 or younger. He joins Gronk in that list and he had more
15:31receiving yards in his first playoff game than Travis Kelce has ever had in a playoff game. I'm not saying he's better
15:37than Kelce, but Loveland is an alien and somebody that should be like right after Bowers and McBride, I think Loveland is
15:44right there. That's not to take away from the other tight ends, right?
15:49Harold Fannin outscores him.
15:5171% of the routes, really good targets per out run behind only Luther Burden in this class. 1.68 yards per out run given
15:58his quarterback situation with Shedeur is nuts. Same thing with the first downs per out run, looks amazing across the board. Round three pick, really fun
16:05player. The only concern is that now that Stefanski's gone, it's a little bit of a bummer. Seems like Njoku's going to
16:10stick around. And then you have Tyler Warren who I I don't want to bury the lead on Tyler Warren. I still think he's
16:15a great player. I think all of these guys are like top five dynasty tight ends, right? It's I would say it's
16:20you know, probably McBride, Bowers, and then we're talking whatever I mean, my order I think would be Loveland, Warren, Fannin. But, I think that would
16:29be my top five. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but I think that would be my top five. So, it's very rare. Like this is a really
16:36strong tight end class. Fannin was amazing. Tyler Warren was amazing before Daniel Jones goes down. I think that that hurts a lot of his per out numbers,
16:42but I'm still a very big believer in Tyler Warren. He looked amazing. And then Irv Smith Jr. He cools off during
16:47the end, but so did like the entire Chargers offense. Things just got weird there. I think him still on a per out
16:54basis looks good for a tight end. To me, he's a top 12 dynasty tight end moving forward attached to Justin Herbert. And
17:00then if you want to bounce around with the rest of these guys, to me by far like the most dead rookie
17:05receiver is Matthew Golden. I will say he had a good playoff game. He had four catches, 84 yards, a really crazy-looking touchdown. It was his
17:11first touchdown of his career. But, these per out numbers are really bad.
17:15The Packers rotate these wide receivers.
17:18I just don't feel good about Golden. And that's a small pat on the back that during dynasty I held firm on
17:23Burden over Matthew Golden in dynasty rookie drafts that I'm glad that things worked out the way they did. And I will
17:28say I want to highlight some players, right?
17:30We'll just sort of jump around the rest of these guys. Highlight some players to keep the light on for, which is just I'm
17:35interested in these guys moving forward.
17:37I think number one would be Jaylen Higgins, right? Like pretty much like light green across the board attached to Stroud. They were really conservative
17:43with this route share number, but Jaylen Higgins is showing some light or some life here. Tory Horton before he got hurt, he was looking like a fun player.
17:52You can, you know, these tight end receivers, I don't know what their upside is, right? Like they're probably not very good players,
17:57but they're probably going to stick around for a little bit. Like their ceiling to me is Romeo Doubs, but maybe that's doing Romeo Doubs a disservice. I
18:04do like the tight end in that room as well with Gunner Helm you can see here crushes the two wide receivers in the
18:11per out metrics of targets per out run, yards per out run, first downs per out run, and PFF grade. Gunner Helm,
18:17somebody to look out for as a year two tight end breakout candidate. I still like Tez Johnson. I know things don't
18:23look great, but I I do like Tez Johnson. He showed some flashes there when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were hurt. Pat Bryant is
18:30somebody as well to keep the light on for. He kind of started running a lot more routes as the season went on. He's
18:34someone to keep an eye on in the playoffs. He could be somebody where he started to ramp up towards the end of
18:39the season.
18:41Could this be a thing where he becomes a big playoff contributor moving forward?
18:46I'll still, you know, I'll still keep hope out for Jaylen Noel here. Yes, the production and the participation isn't high, but you know, we're talking light
18:52greens across the board here. Pretty strong PFF grade at 69.6.
18:57And then the last one I will say Terrance Ferguson. His per out numbers aren't great, but he was used sparingly for the Rams. I think that he is a fun
19:05year two tight end candidate. Everybody else I'm not that interested in. Tesla is really just touchdowns. Everything else looks pretty rough. You can, you
19:12know, you could talk me into Mitchell Evans. I'll keep the light on for Kyle Williams who has had some big games, but
19:18you know, if he's somebody I have to spend like a seventh round pick on, I'm probably going to pass.
19:22But, outside of that, I think that that sort of covers the rookie receiver class.
19:27I'll, you know, I'm still a Best Ball believer. But, that's that. And I will say you guys have heard me, you know,
19:32complain about it all year, but Aryan Smith, I bitched about it on draft day.
19:37I have never seen a player run more routes and do less with them than Aryan Smith in the NFL. Shout out the Jets
19:43here.
19:4543% route participation, like he I think he's dead last in all of these metrics. He's dead last, yeah.
19:50Worst PFF grade, worst first downs per out run, worst yards per out run.
19:54um insanity. But, let's move on to the uh rookie running backs here.
19:58And we can talk about uh how these rookie running backs looked this year.
20:03This is going to be sorted by their points per game, and I just kind of took the notable guys. The first one I want
20:08to talk about is Ashton Jeanty.
20:10I've seen some talk that like Ashton Jeanty isn't that good, or like he's an next Ra Richardson. I would I would
20:16throw that all away. I will say let's actually back up for a second and talk about what this this chart is showing
20:21here. Uh you have their points per game, so that's their production by week. Uh expected points per game, so that's their volume by week, right? So, what's
20:27what's their workload. Their fantasy points over expected, so how much are they over underperforming their volume by? Their target share, so receiving
20:33upside, right? So, this is essentially production, volume, efficiency, receiving upside, and then film grade by PFF. Now, when we talk about Ashton Jeanty,
20:43like I said, people have been penalizing him, but he just looks he just looks good. He looks different.
20:47What was against the Texans, the best defense in the NFL. He has like a 60-yard receiving touchdown, his best game of the entire year. Jeanty moves
20:54different, he looks good. This team should have a new coaching staff, Fernando Mendoza next year. Things should look a lot better for him. And I
21:00think the biggest point of uh emphasis with him, 13.4% target share is nuts.
21:05That means that he definitely has uh a sky-high ceiling when it comes to receiving. He feels a lot like rookie year Bijan, where Bijan let everybody
21:12down as a first-round pick. Jeanty will bounce back and be somebody we really like in fantasy football moving forward for the rest of his career. Uh
21:21we can talk about uh Judkins.
21:24Tough one here, uh where he actually looked good. This he's another one where I made a note during these videos of
21:30he's going to look awful in efficiency metrics, but this offensive line is bad, Shorter Sanders at the quarterback. He was an absolute horse, but he has a
21:37brutal injury. Uh that's kind of the story with a lot of these guys, right?
21:39Like that's the story with Scat Bow and Hampton, is they looked really good uh before getting hurt. Uh it's going to come Hampton's injury much
21:48much less worse than Scat Bow and Judkins. That's going to be a big like, you know, lean on the fantasy doctors, and then from there see what
21:55their price is. Hampton seems to be fine, just comes down to this offensive line getting Joe Alt and Rashaan Slater healthy. I think Slater has a much more
22:02brutal injury. Uh and then we have like two running backs who really turned it on down the stretch. Uh both efficient, both really
22:10fun like space backs. They're they're they're in that mold of your Devon Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs, but they're not probably not quite as talented as of
22:18right now. Uh they're tough where Harvey like never got the full workload until the end of the year. Uh same with
22:26Henderson. They were the quintessential like hope that they pop off down the stretch from weeks nine on. Henderson was the RB8 in points per game, Harvey
22:34was the RB15. Uh keep an eye on Harvey's usage for the playoffs here. Like to me that's like the biggest uh everything's
22:40on the line. Here's how we really feel about these players. And the bummer with Henderson, and why Henderson is going to
22:45be such a tricky pick moving forward, uh is that Ramondre is one good highly paid through 2026, and trusted, and they like him. Uh he had 40 snaps to
22:57Henderson's 26 snaps versus the Chargers.
23:00It's going to probably be a split backfield again, and I don't really know how to treat this backfield moving forward. And you kind of have like a
23:05mixed bag of guys like Woody Marks, who's like a fun day three guy who's been super inefficient, but the Texans offensive line sucks. Really the biggest
23:11issue for me with Woody Marks is for a guy with like 80 catches in his sophomore year at Mississippi State, I I
23:17I would have thought that he would be like a 10% plus target share guy. That's weird. Um Mon guys been fun as this like
23:22David Montgomery light option behind De'Andre Swift. Uh you can talk about Bill Krosky Merritt, up and down. He was efficient, didn't catch passes in a bad
23:30offense. I'm still keeping the light on for him. Uh everyone else, you know, Two had a tough year, but there is a chance
23:37that Travis Etienne leaves in free agency, and then things get interesting there.
23:40Uh and then really the last guy I'll talk about is Caleb Johnson. To me, he is dead on impact. Uh this is one of the
23:45worst rookie running back seasons I can think of here.
23:49I mean, I think he's I think he's bottom in everything. Bottom in production, bottom in volume. Uh not bottom in fantasy points over expected, worst
23:55target share, and then like by far the worst PFF grade.
23:59They're going to get a new coaching staff there.
24:02I don't know. I don't know. Um I I was not high on Caleb. We will see how that works moving forward. Now, on
24:09to the rest of the video, my second takeaway is just going to be my my biggest hits and misses that we'll just
24:14kind of rapid-fire through. I just think it's good for uh what do you want to say?
24:18Uh accountability.
24:20We can talk about my biggest misses. So, in terms of like guys that I was targeting, guys that I was fading. And
24:24the way that I I came up with this list is I looked at like the teams that I drafted. I looked at my draft guide,
24:29where it had, you know, like my targets and fades outlined. Uh and then I also looked at uh some videos. And then I also really
24:36how I came to conclusion of like what's a hit and what's a miss, is again, I looked at that Hayden Winks
24:41uh chart. Now, I will say like you'll see there's not a ton of like fades that were huge misses for me, but it's
24:45because like a lot of my fades like ended up being fine, right? Like I we we faded Courtland Sutton, who was
24:51like a, you know, like a a single. He wasn't a hit or a miss. Like there there's a lot of those guys in fantasy.
24:56Like not everybody is a bust or a stud.
24:58Like there is just some guys in between that were fine. Uh some of our biggest misses, Brian Thomas, brutal brutal miss. I loved Brian Thomas.
25:05We'll get into the year two wide receiver stuff later. Uh Bowers. Now, I will say I'll include injuries on here because I have injuries for my hits, I
25:12have injuries for my misses. Injuries are a part of fantasy football.
25:15You really shouldn't get credit either way, but if I'm going to get, you know, on for my Brock Bowers stuff or uh
25:21Bucky Irving or whatever, I feel like I should be able to uh take a W for, you know, not drafting somebody like Malik
25:27Nabers, uh for instance. On the other side, we have uh Bucky Irving. That was an injury. Lamar Jackson, an injury as
25:33well. Hampton hurt.
25:35Xavier Worthy hurt in the first game, but we were so high on the Chiefs, and it ended up paying off, right? Like
25:40Mahomes was really good this year before getting hurt. Uh Xavier Worthy though, that one was just tough. I thought like year two breakout he could do something.
25:47He was a zero this year. Uh even with the runway of Rashee Rice. Travis Hunter, of course. Looked like he was
25:52maybe going to pop off, gets hurt. Who knows how that was going to go. Uh Matthew Golden, just straight-up bad at football. Mark
25:59Andrews did absolutely nothing. Um and then Basil Twohill, he didn't hurt your team, right? You took him like in the 10th round, but Basil Twohill was a guy
26:05I loved. He did nothing this year. And then guys that I wasn't drafting who did great. Uh Kyren Williams, solid. Uh JSN,
26:12the biggest whiff for me by far.
26:14Where I just wasn't bought into I I didn't think that Sam Darnold would have enough efficiency. I thought that the Kubiak offense would be run-heavy, and
26:21like all of these things served true.
26:23JSN just ascended to like best wide receiver in the NFL status.
26:28And it's kind of a lesson that we'll get into later with these receivers of like there is no ceiling on what like a year
26:34three breakout wide receiver can look like. So, you have to always factor that in with a guy like JSN. I wasn't
26:39drafting Stefon Diggs, he ended up being okay. And then I wasn't drafting I didn't even I don't know that I even put
26:44Javonte as like a fade. Oh, no, I did cuz he was going uh he was going very high on like ESPN leagues and stuff,
26:49just as like the Cowboys RB1. And what do you know, he was actually a fantastic pick there. Uh and then we can talk
26:55about my hits.
26:57Uh I did like I actually went back to the legendary running back video. And of course like you don't want to give
27:02yourself a pat on the back for liking, you know, first- and second-round running backs, but of there were five 20-plus point per game running backs, we
27:08outlined five running backs that had legendary upside in like July. We had um McCaffrey, Gibbs, Bijan, Achane, and Bucky. Of course, Bucky gets hurt. If
27:18Bucky was JT, we would have been we would have went five for five. So, we had CMC, Gibbs, Achane. We liked
27:23Pickens, who was good this year. Olave.
27:25Every time I took Olave in a stream, I got killed for it. He was great this year. Um Mahomes until he tore his ACL.
27:31I talked about it earlier, I still think uh Abanikanda was a fine pick. Scat Bow was a good pick as well, if you want to
27:35look at the uh Hayden Winks chart.
27:38You can still see Scat Bow, uh I believe above that green line.
27:41Yeah, above that green line, like right up right between 96 and 108. He's above that green line in that Jaylen Warren,
27:46Judkins, Scat Bow, uh Charbonnet area. Uh we can look at like Hunter Henry actually ended up being a really solid late-round tight
27:54end. Uh Harold Fannin, who uh I took on a lot of those FFPC teams late in a lot of best ball teams late. Uh he was
28:00amazing. And then fades that we got right, we weren't drafting Jeanty, we weren't drafting Nabers.
28:06We weren't drafting Marv. Garrett Wilson kind of got bailed out with a with the injury, but I will say I I think that if
28:11Garrett Wilson stayed healthy, I don't know that he would have produced like he did in the first few weeks. Like if he if he had to play with Brady Cook
28:17over the final stretch, I'd be shocked.
28:19Uh Alvin Kamara we weren't in on, Chuba Hubbard we weren't in on. Calvin Ridley was a zero. Uh Hockenson was a zero. Uh
28:25and then we didn't like Caleb Johnson.
28:27One of the few rookies that I didn't like was Caleb Johnson. So, it's always going to be a mixed bag. Like you can go
28:31back on any of your favorite creators, it's going to be a mixed bag, right?
28:35We're talking like, you know, 10 to 20 hits and 10 to 20 misses. It is what it is. Uh it really just comes down to not
28:42missing on the guy or the guys. It's an interesting mixed bag. Like we missed on JSN, but I also preached like not being too scared to
28:50draft McCaffrey. So, it's one of those things where there are trade-offs. Uh but, let's talk about what we what we sort of been alluding to
28:57of the year three versus year two breakout. And this is a really good uh graphic that I always bring up from Ryan
29:04Heath over at Fantasy Points, where here here's what I'll say, and why videos like this are a little bit tricky when we talk about lessons learned and
29:13takeaways from this year, is this video it's really more to highlight what happened in 2025. And we don't want to zoom in on what happened in 2025 and say
29:24the exact same thing will happen in 2026, right? Because it's a one-year sample, and weird things happen. And I think that a big takeaway
29:34from this year that I This is where we kind of have to divide things. It's a uh takeaway from 2025, but I wouldn't overreact. Like I would
29:41say the bigger lesson is don't overreact to a one-year sample. Because we look here the historical data when we talk about fantasy breakouts. Yes, year three
29:49breakouts are king, right? 34% breakout rate, but year two is still way up there at 29.8% and I bring this up because of
29:56course this was a big talking point for this year. This year so many year two receivers busted, right? Malik Nabers gets hurt. Ladd McConkey huge bust.
30:03Brian Thomas huge bust. Marvin Harrison bust. Xavier Worthy bust. Keon Coleman bust. Ricky Pearsall bust.
30:09And then of course you have the year three studs, right? JSN and Puka Nacua both year three wide receivers. Both the
30:15only receivers at 20 plus points per game. And if you even want to go a little bit lower than that, you have
30:19Michael Wilson who like was kind of a year three breakout this year. And even Parker Washington was a year three wide
30:24receiver. And you can even look at like year four guys were studs this year, right? You had George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Rondale Robinson,
30:32Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce all year four receivers.
30:37And again, that's more descriptive than predictive.
30:40That's what happened in 2025. I wouldn't say that the like the big lesson learned is to now throw out year two breakouts
30:45and only target year three and four breakouts. Because when we look back even just to like 20 just to 2020, we have Ja'Marr Chase was
30:54the wide receiver four in his second season. Justin Jefferson was the wide receiver four in his second season. Puka Nacua was the wide receiver two in his
30:59second season. AJ Brown was the wide receiver six. DK Metcalf was the wide receiver 10. If you remember, that was the year where I think Russ got some MVP
31:05buzz. DK Metcalf was a monster in his second year. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the wide receiver 10 in his second year. And
31:10if you want to go back even further than that, Josh Gordon's like legendary 2013 season. That was his second year.
31:17Auto Beckham 2015 was like a 21 point per game wide receiver in his second year. Allen Robinson had a huge breakout
31:22in his his year two season with Blake Bortles in 2015 with 19 points per game.
31:26So you can just like keep going back.
31:29I just wouldn't overreact to a small sample. So, I don't know. I think we can definitely say like year three breakouts
31:35are king and that's what this chart definitely shows. But, I think there's also going to be a really nice buy low
31:41opportunity on guys like Ladd McConkey, right? How much did Keenan Allen slot usage play into things? How much did the offensive line having Joe Alt get hurt
31:49or Rashawn Slater get hurt factor into things? How much better could this offense look without Greg Roman next year? And then even Rome Odunze. Rome
31:55Odunze started off hot. The foot injury came up.
31:58And I would love to see what Rome Odunze looks like for a healthy 17 game season attached to Caleb Williams. Now, our
32:04fourth takeaway is that your legendary running back in 2025 was Christian McCaffrey. And every time he does it, it's just like this felt obvious, right?
32:15Uh he now sets We look at the highest point per game seasons over the last five years. He sets a five-year
32:22high of 24.5 points per game beating his high of 2023 24.5 points per game. Just absolutely nuts. The only guys Like when
32:32we talk about true legendary upside season, it really is 23 plus points per game. And over the last five years, McCaffrey's been the only guy able to
32:40even touch it. Now, I will say as a whole that high-end upside is really only been shown by McCaffrey.
32:47But, this was a great year for high-end running back scoring where we had five 20 plus point per game running backs. We
32:53had McCaffrey, we had Bijan, we had Gibbs, we had JT, and we had Achane. And that is one of the best running back
32:59seasons we've seen in terms of like a high-end, right? Like last year we definitely saw a strong running back season, right? Like Kamara was good.
33:04Mixon was good. Derrick Henry was good.
33:07Of course, you know, Saquon was the guy, but it still wasn't crazy at a high-end.
33:11Like Saquon topped out at 22 points per game. And then I think you had Gibbs at like 20 plus points per game and then
33:18that was it. Uh or no, you had three guys. I think maybe Who was the other guy in 24? Was Saquon,
33:24it was Gibbs.
33:26And I believe it was one more to hit 20 plus points per game. Uh but you can see here this is a chart dating back over
33:33the last 10 seasons. We look at 20 plus point per game scores at running back versus wide receiver. Five 20 plus point
33:39per game running backs was the most since 2018. And now we're seeing a trend where these high-end wide receivers are starting to slack a little bit where
33:46we've only had three 20 plus point per game wide receivers over the last two years.
33:53We had more than that in 2023 alone.
33:55Like if you look at the last two years it's been three wide receivers. Look at the two years before that it was seven.
34:00So, I will say I think that we are due for some better wide receiver seasons here.
34:04Like I think that part of it is a little bit of a trend, but I think Ryan Heath outlines it here as well. You look at
34:10the kind of the injury rates for the top quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in 2025 and 2024. It has been some of the least
34:21healthy seasons for wide receivers. If that can bounce back up to the 2023 season area, we will be looking good.
34:27The running backs on the other hand have been much healthier. Now, we can definitely step back and be like maybe the running backs are healthier because
34:33there's less volume and less like total workhorses.
34:36A lot of times the injury stuff is random.
34:39I do think one of the these years we're going to get wide receiver to swing back where we were really on a from like 2020
34:46through 2023 was kind of like a wide receiver renaissance. I think that we are due for that a little bit more here
34:52moving forward. Things just kind of got weird where like Lamb was banged up this year. Uh you had like Ja'Marr Chase lose
34:58Burrow which was kind of weird. Uh just like a lot of things go wrong, but we'll see how this looks moving forward. It's something to note
35:06that uh we had high-end running back scoring more than we ever really have. And I will add to that that the running back
35:12dead zone It's tough to say. I think like the the stone cold definition of like running backs rounds three through five, that's
35:19dead. But like the archetype of uh like mid-level talent-wise running back maybe aging uh top of the depth chart for like a
35:29fine team is still out there, right?
35:31Like Kamara was that this year. Chuba Hubbard was that this year. James Conner of course got hurt, but he was definitely that archetype this year.
35:38And there's definitely a fall off, right? Like we want to be chasing those 20 plus point per game running backs, right? Of course, you had your
35:44uh the the five we just talked about, right? JT, Achane, Gibbs, Bijan, McCaffrey were all top two round picks.
35:49So, a guy like Hubbard was never going to compete with that. And instead of those guys, the kind of like crucial dead zone
35:57idea of pass on those guys for the later round running backs, we had guys like De'Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne who maybe
36:05you know, six years ago would have been like fifth round picks. A lot of them were like, you know, sixth, seventh,
36:09eighth, ninth round picks and were really strong running back values. So, something to just think of that RB dead zone archetypes are still a
36:18thing and we can definitely kind of get similar archetypes later on that aren't as sexy. Especially the ones that like aren't young and are just players that
36:27are RB1s on their depth chart and you can just kind of bet on them as you please. Now, my sixth takeaway
36:33is heavy personnel.
36:35This is it is not definitive, all right?
36:37Cuz I I don't want to say that I've cracked the code or that this is going to be a trend that that sticks here. But
36:42we're definitely seeing a shift here where tight ends are better, right? Like there were just more instances this year where you could start a tight end in
36:49your flex spot versus a wide receiver, right? So, I think like a a good example of that is like Jerry Jeudy versus
36:54Harold Landry. Like on a weekly basis you wanted to start Harold Landry more than Jeudy. And across the board that was happening where you could get away
37:01with putting like a Dalton Schultz in your flex spot or an AJ Barner in your flex spot in really deep leagues and do
37:06okay. And the data would match that. We look at number of spike weeks. So, 25 plus PPR point games, you had 63 for wide
37:14receivers, 17 for tight ends. That's a 46 spot difference. In 2024 that was a 69 player difference. And in 2023 there was
37:23an 83 player difference. So, this gap is closing where like the the ratio of players you want to put in your flex of
37:29tight ends to wide receivers is definitely slanting towards tight ends right now. Look at the number of wide receiver versus tight ends with 10 plus
37:37point per game seasons.
37:38A difference of 27 in 2025. That goes up to 38 in 2024 and 35 in 2023. So, that gap between wide receiver scoring and
37:46tight end scoring is really closing here making tight ends more flex viable. And these wide receiver twos are taking a massive massive hit. Where we look at
37:54Ryan Heath's tweet here.
37:56You can see that in 2025 there's a lot of red from like wide receiver nine through wide receiver 20 where these
38:02wide receiver twos are scoring less points than they ever have before. Now, you can look back at like 2024, it was
38:08much even. So, I think that there's some randomness at play, but I'm also just kind of throwing my best guess out there
38:15at what this could be all about. And it really is, you know, this evolving, you know, using heavy personnel, using 12
38:23personnel, 13 personnel.
38:26Uh I have a stat here where in terms of teams that are running 13 personnel, so three tight ends, uh 6% or more of the time. It sounds
38:33low, but there were 10 teams that did that this year. Uh in 2024 there were only four teams that did that. And in
38:39terms of teams running 12 personnel, so two tight ends on the field, 35% or more of the time, we had three teams in 2025
38:45and zero teams in 2024. So, we're just seeing more tight ends, less wide receivers running routes. And I think that is kind of closing the gap
38:52on things there. And while we're talking about tight ends, let's talk about early round tight end really fought back this year. The takeaway here is that in
39:00Again, this is another one of these one-year sample sizes where I wouldn't run with this and say, "Okay, moving forward I'm going to take a
39:07tight end early and a quarterback late."
39:09It's just kind of how things worked this season where uh we had a monster year for early round tight end. This is from Ryan Heath again
39:17here where you can see We reference reference this a bunch in terms of league winner rate by round. Uh you can see tight end has a really high
39:25league winner rate in round two and round uh even round four was or round three was okay, but a big part of that
39:31was Travis Kelce. Ryan Heath sort of sort of outlines it below that that prime Travis Kelce is responsible for that entire statistic. There has never
39:39been a league winning tight end other than Travis Kelce drafted inside of the top four rounds of ESPN ADP dating back
39:45to 2017. But, that was bucked to this year when Trey McBride dropped 18.6 points per game. That was more than Travis Kelce in Kelce in 2018, Jimmy
39:54Graham in 2011, Gronk in 2012, and Gronk in 2014. I don't think that we are putting enough respect on Trey McBride's
40:01season, especially considering the fact that midway through, he wasn't doing well.
40:05Like it wasn't until Kyler stepped away that Trey McBride went nuts. So, what that looks like moving forward, who knows, but he was a massive positional
40:16advantage where the next best tight end was Bowers and Kittle tied at 14.7 points per game.
40:21McBride gave you 18.6 points per game.
40:23So, he was a four-plus point per game advantage over the next tight end.
40:31But, we look at quarterbacks, which, as you can see by this same tweet, 40% league winner rate in round three, 33% league
40:39winner rate in round four, they just didn't do as well this year.
40:43Where like Josh Allen was the QB1 overall, but after we just showed you, Trey McBride gave you a four-plus point per game advantage over the late round
40:49tight ends.
40:50Or not even the late round tight ends, he gave you that advantage over Kittle and Bowers, still you know, mid to early
40:55round tight ends. Allen couldn't even give you a one-plus point per game advantage over the late round quarterbacks of Drake Maye and Matthew
41:01Stafford. So, early round quarterback was pretty brutal because Allen didn't give you a massive advantage. Jalen Hurts finished as the QB1 seven in points per game.
41:11Jayden Daniels was banged up the entire year. Lamar Jackson not only banged up the entire year, but when he played like
41:15that three-game stretch of like less than 10 PPR points per game, that was killing you in those spots. So, early round quarterback was brutal,
41:24but it was kind of the first time since this like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson rushing quarterback era that this has happened. And I think that a big thing
41:32is going to kind of be zigging when others zag. And if we can get some discounted prices on these quarterbacks, I will be buying.
41:38We can also talk about again, like the late round quarterbacks, they crushed.
41:41Drake Maye crushed, Stafford crushed, Trevor Lawrence was great, Caleb Williams was good.
41:46Uh On top of that, you have the late round tight ends where Kyle Pitts was the tight end four, Harold Landry was the
41:51tight end six, Tyler Boyd tight end eight, Jake Ferguson tight end nine, Juwan Johnson was solid, Hunter Henry was solid.
41:57Cole Kmet Loveland towards the end of the year was solid as well. Even like Dalton Schultz was startable during certain stretches. Darren Waller you got
42:05off of waivers. So, of course, there are like many ways to uh win a fantasy championship. Uh my number eight takeaway
42:12is nobody's quarterback-proof.
42:15I think a big part of why I drafted a good bit of Justin Jefferson this year.
42:18Like it wasn't like a huge target or anything, but I I wasn't as scared as others cuz I was just like, Jefferson
42:23has done this every year of his career.
42:24As long as he has KOC, doesn't matter the quarterback, he has been fine. He did have that one year remember where it
42:28was like Josh Dobbs where Kirk Cousins gets hurt, then it's Josh Dobbs, it's uh Nick Mullens, and he does fine. But,
42:35man, this was a year where, you know, even Jefferson, a guy who was on a Hall of Fame pace, uh it it was humbling for him and humbling
42:46for you if you had him in fantasy football where we are talking uh before this year, right, his rookie year he was the wide
42:53receiver nine in points per game.
42:55And then he was never worse than the wide receiver five in points per game.
42:59He finishes as the wide receiver 28 in points per game this year with just two receiving touchdowns.
43:05Insane. And on the other side of this, we also have JT who probably isn't going to get enough love when we look back at
43:11this season where he was pacing with McCaffrey. Like we talked about how rare that 23-plus point per game season is, right? It's only been McCaffrey for the
43:18last two years. JT was on that 23-plus point per game pace before Daniel Jones goes down. We look at the 13-game sample
43:25with Daniel Jones, we're talking 23.9 points per game, over 100 rushing yards per game, over one rushing touchdowns per game. And then you take out Daniel
43:32Jones, which is as crazy that is to say, and you put in, you know, Phil Rivers or uh Riley Leonard, and all of a sudden
43:39that turns into a 13.3 points per game in the money weeks, right? That's the last four games of the season, and JT,
43:44like your horse the entire year, fades away. So, huge emphasis that quarterback, I mean, it sounds simple, but it's just one of
43:54these things where Jefferson had a first-round ADP this year because it was really I mean, there was some upside that McCarthy could get better and be a
44:00good player, but man, if you don't have that quarterback, things get really scary. And now, this is a weird one. I want to say shoutout
44:07to Henry Muto. He is somebody that is a a high-stakes shark.
44:12He has won tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in fantasy football leagues, the high-stakes redraft manage leagues that we do in the summer. He's always in the
44:21chat, he's always giving me pointers, and he begged me every year to take Brandon Aubrey. And this was the year where I actually listened to him. I took
44:27a lot of Brandon Aubrey this year, as weird as that sounds. Where I think like a big thing for a lot of us is like,
44:33don't take a kicker. Like, you know, just just draft 16 rounds in your home league and you can pick up a kicker
44:37before week one. But, we're now getting to a spot where so many of your league mates are watching these YouTube channels, whether it's me
44:45or others, they're consuming this information. They're the the days of getting, you know, a rookie receiver with tons of upside in the last round of
44:52your draft that your whole league is sleeping on, those are kind of done, right? Like there's really like in a lot of like if you are in a sharp
45:00home league, it's kind of just everyone taking handcuffs in the last couple of rounds. And if you're in a sharp league,
45:06I think taking Brandon Aubrey makes a lot of sense. Like my best teams had Brandon Aubrey. I'll show you them in a
45:11second, but Brandon Aubrey, we look at the ESPN, you know, highest percentage of players on championship rosters, Brandon Aubrey was
45:21only behind Puka, JSN, Bijan Robinson, Trey McBride, and McCaffrey.
45:25I mean, that's nuts.
45:27Right?
45:28He is only behind those five players in terms of the most percent of fantasy championship rosters.
45:36And of course, I know that Jason Myers outscored him. I know one other kicker outscored him as well.
45:40But, thing about Brandon Aubrey is that and the thing about Brandon Aubrey versus defenses or other kickers is he has just been so consistent of
45:48like, I don't know, you could maybe draft Jason Myers next year, but there's no guarantees a top three guy. Brandon Aubrey has been a top three kicker in
45:55three straight years. That's his entire NFL career pretty much.
45:58And if you can stick him in in the last round, he is a really good pick for your fantasy football team. Like I think that
46:03moving forward in my draft guides, I will have like okay, all of these players are gone, you now have permission to take Brandon Aubrey here.
46:11And with that being said, I know a lot of you guys have asked, you know, how did your teams do? I know you
46:15streamed all those teams, how did they end up? Let's talk through how that looks. Now, we will start with my redraft manage league teams. I will say,
46:25in the past I've shown you exactly how much I've spent on these teams, whatever. It's a little bit tricky, right? I split a lot of these teams with
46:31other creators. I also can't really reveal, but some of the websites as well, they definitely give some credits, some free teams so that I can stream them to
46:43you guys. So, it's not as simple as, you know, listed price. And then some of them are also like bundled and you get
46:48like a free thing on top. Just trust that I'll show you my best team here, Acid Rap. We finished 16th overall. We
46:55won 13,500.
46:57We won 20,100 overall. Yes, do we play a lot of leagues and put in a lot of buy-ins? Yes.
47:04I'll just say we won 20,000-plus dollars here. Did I, you know, did I make out winning 15,000 profit?
47:10No. But, we were 100% profitable. We had an amazing year this year.
47:15So, just trust that trust my word on that without talking about, you know, pure what were your buy-ins, what was your profit. We'll actually get into
47:22that on like my dynasty teams and my season-long best ball teams. But, you can see here, we get three first-place finishes, two second-place finishes.
47:30Sadly, we we took home more bronze medals than I would like.
47:34If if, you know, one of these could have been another first place, that would have been pretty sick. But, we do end up, right? When we look at
47:41expected first place, which I put in the bottom here, which is just, you know, we played in what, we played in
47:49one We played in 24 leagues.
47:55One out of every 12 leagues you're going to probably win. We were expected to win two, we win three. We out, you know,
48:01perform our expectation by 50%. That's amazing. And we did really well. Now, I'll show you my best team here. This one actually came in 16th in the Main
48:08Event. We won 13,500 with a team called Acid Rap.
48:14And this team, of course, has Brandon Aubrey, which is kind of the point of what I'm trying to show you guys here. Where we
48:21had Brandon Aubrey. I'll show you the draft board. We drafted this team on stream on August 31st. We We streamed this on
48:29August 31st. The draft board is here. We It's actually hilarious. I remember loving this team because we got such a great price on Brian Thomas, and it just
48:38did not matter. We drafted from the seventh spot here. We went McCaffrey. We went Brian Thomas at 206, which was brutal. Hampton wasn't even that great.
48:46Rondale Moore was solid. Harvey was a a horse for us down the stretch. Waddle was okay. Olave was great. And it's
48:51crazy. We We won a lot of money with this team despite Tucker Kraft getting hurt later. Jennings was okay, Purdy was okay for us.
49:00Higgins didn't really do anything.
49:01Hunter Henry was amazing. So, we we kind of spammed tight end late, which was sort of the meta this year. Kraft goes
49:07down, but we still have Hunter Henry, Harold Landry, Brandon Aubrey still on this team.
49:11And it was just, you know, nothing crazy, but it just kind of goes to show that you don't need to have the perfect team
49:17to win your league or to win big money.
49:20This team was like just good enough. We end up winning the first-place game in this individual league. If you look at the playoffs
49:28here, yeah, so we won here. You can see Acid Rap has the highest score. And then as well, really cool stuff that it's the
49:35highest I've placed in the main event here. We came in 16th overall. I I I'll be honest, too. After this first week,
49:42149.7 isn't even a good score. Like you can see, we we had way better scores in the next 2 weeks.
49:48I just kind of set this lineup at a principle, right? At this point, it's like, okay, we made the the playoff
49:52sprint, but who really knows what's going to happen here?
49:55So, we we end up setting this lineup, and I didn't even know until after week 17 wrapped, and I just kind of checked
50:00out all my teams, and I was like, holy we came in 16th place. Um which is cool. You can see like the rules.
50:07Uh is it going to show the prizes here?
50:09Yeah, so for 16th place, we got an extra $7,500 on top of uh getting like first place for $4,000. I think we also got uh the one seed or
50:21like the two seed bonus for having like $2,000. So, all in all, it ended up being $13,500 net with that team. Uh we also had
50:29another main event team win as well, Austin 3:16. I'll show you.
50:34Uh we drafted this one. Oh, come on.
50:42We drafted Austin 16 on stream August 23rd 10:00 p.m. in front of all the fellas.
50:49Uh this team I I that first one, I don't even know what I would call that one.
50:52It's kind of like a robust RB, uh but like in a smart way here. Uh we actually it's it's this is hilarious. Another one
50:59where like neither of these teams are perfect. We take Brock Bowers uh first.
51:04We take Achane.
51:05We take Henderson. Evans gets hurt.
51:08Pickens is great. Rice down the stretch was good. Olave, uh Mahomes, Downs, Burden, Godwin. So again, like not a perfect team at all. Another team Harold
51:15Fannin in these Titan premium leagues really carried me, you'll see here.
51:19Uh and then nothing else really stuck out. What What did this team look like by the end of it?
51:23Yeah, this one got screwed with with uh Mahomes going down, but we we got very lucky in this championship game, I'll
51:28say that as well. Uh we had Kareem Hunt, Devon Achane. Yeah, so this one really lost steam uh Fannin really put his team
51:34on the back here or on his back here uh in this final game. What did we do in week 13?
51:41Yeah, so things looked a lot better here uh when like Mahomes was healthy. We had Achane. We had Henderson. Uh Rice was
51:47popping off. Pickens, Bowers, Olave. Uh we also we got Gadsden off of waivers in this league as well. Uh so just like a
51:53lot of like being active on waivers, getting late round tight ends uh in these FFPC leagues helped a ton. So that
51:59team got first place.
52:00Uh we had some good FFPC team names. Or I I will say as well, another thing, I hated this team. This team got third
52:09place, so it wasn't like amazing or anything, but this team got third place.
52:14Uh all caps when you spell the man name.
52:17I hated this team when I drafted it. It just goes to show that even if you don't like a team the day
52:21you draft it or like drafting your perfect team doesn't always work out uh that way. Remember getting, you know, absolutely torn apart in the chat for uh
52:32spamming these wide receivers where we took Puka, Tee Higgins, Travis Hunter, Zay Flowers, Mecole Hardman, Deebo Samuel, but our wide receivers kept kept
52:38us afloat. We had Achane. I I truly believe that if Achane had stayed healthy, we would've been fine here.
52:44Pitts plays great. Ertz plays great. And and really Achane going down just kind of made us lose steam, but this team got
52:50third place, was 9 and 3. Really strong team. Then a team that I loved was the redeem team, right? I drafted that right
52:56after this team as kind of like a get back. And our redeem team goes 4 and 8 and sucked. So again, it's just one of
53:01those things where where we take Bowers, we take Buckey, Tyreek. I mean, this this team was dead on impact. Uh Isaiah Pacheco. And like
53:09me, you guys on the stream all loved this team. And it's just kind of a lesson learned of like, I don't know.
53:14However you feel about your team in week one isn't the entire uh story. And then as we kind of bounce around look at my
53:20best teams here, uh this is my home league team.
53:23Of course, we don't make it to the championship. Uh sadly, we we win third place here. We of course have Derrick
53:29Henry in his blowup game, and it didn't matter because we couldn't uh overcome 181 points from a Puka team in the
53:37second round. Just absolutely heartbreaking stuff in my home league where it just sucks knowing you would've won the championship because you scored
53:43so many points, but uh Drake Maye, Henderson, Monangai. So I had a JSN team. I know that I said I faded JSN
53:49before, but a big part and a big component of what I do is that at any price, I will draft any
53:54player. Uh he fell in ADP, so I took him. We had Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase. Really fun team, really good team. Uh and it just it wasn't in the
54:02cards this year for us to win. Uh and then I'll show you my last uh redraft team that won.
54:09Can't Unslime Me. I don't even really remember this team. This is on RT Sports.
54:15Where can I find like the draft? Draft room. Here we go.
54:19This is what it looks like.
54:21Remember, this was the boomer site where the draft board looked a little funky.
54:26So where were we drafting out of here?
54:27Oh, the one spot. We took Oh, people people hated this team when I drafted it. We took Jahmyr Gibbs. And again,
54:31this isn't even a good team on paper here. Uh we take Gibbs, Ladd, Josh Allen, Pickens, James Conner goes down, Olave solid, Judy, Warren, Jennings,
54:40Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Higgins, Kincaid, Coker, Horton, Corum, Tucker. Man, I don't know how we even won that championship, but sometimes, you know, sometimes you can
54:49just not have the greatest team of all time and just sort of figure it out. Uh Gibbs kind of we had Devin Achane off
54:54waivers, I guess, here.
54:57And what about what about the week before? Like Can't Unslime Me 147 in this round. We had Allen, Gibbs. So that was the big
55:04Gibbs game. Uh and again, these leagues are a little weird because the playoffs start uh so early. So we definitely had
55:10a little bit of an advantage getting those Gibbs games uh in like week 14, I want to say this was.
55:16Uh but that's our high stakes stuff. I don't know if there's anything else to really look at in the redraft managed
55:21stuff. Everything else, right? We had like a bunch of third place teams, some second place teams. Uh and then outside of that,
55:28you know, some 11th place, 12th place.
55:30We're definitely very much a, you know, swing for high upside and then see what happens from there style OG's style channel. Uh we'll also talk about Here's
55:39my dynasty leagues. I don't know that it's really worth showing what they look like, but in case if you're curious how
55:44we did in dynasty, uh we, you know, made $125.
55:49Uh again, more bronzes, more silvers. We won Two ladies set lineups today uh best ball dynasty league with the Fantasy Stock Exchange guys. Uh shout
55:58out to them. Got a win there. Uh and this is highlighted yellow cuz I I split this with a buddy of mine. In the
56:04season-long best ball, this one we didn't do great.
56:06We lose about $2,000.
56:08Uh and it really just comes down to this is we actually did really well. Uh we we ended up making a profit in the big
56:14board. We don't make a profit in the BBM. We make a huge profit in the Husky.
56:18Uh it was my first year where I had two I had two teams alive in week 17, which was really cool. Neither of them did
56:24well enough to net like a huge win.
56:26Uh really our biggest downfall was not doing well in the high stakes one. So in the big dog $500 * 2, massive $1,000. We
56:34don't win either of them, and that is unfortunately kind of our downfall. Like if we if we didn't do the high stakes
56:39ones, we end up breaking even there. But overall, between dynasty, the big profit in the redraft managed leagues, taking only a $2,000 hit in the season-long
56:48best ball, we were profitable in 2025. A huge bounce back from 2024 or whiffing on Saquon, one of my worst years playing. This year was
56:58really nice. We get a 16th overall in the main event, which like doesn't sound crazy, but thousands of teams we drafted
57:03on stream.
57:05This next year, I'm I really want one of those big ones. I know shout out to Sam Sherman. He's recorded on the Underdog
57:10channel before.
57:12Maybe we'll have him on here eventually.
57:13He wins 2 million.
57:15Uh I'm really gunning for like not like 2 million's nuts, but if we could get like a a 10 fi- or I was going to say 10
57:22figure. I mean like 10,000 or better uh big win. That would be fun. We haven't done that since 2022.
57:29Uh but 16th plus first place in the main event, uh that team did a lot of heavy lifting for our season this year.
57:38That's kind of all I got. Um I will say, if you're curious of like what things are going to look like moving forward,
57:43it's probably going to be a lot of content on this channel, but I will link in the comments in the description. Uh
57:48we're going to have a lot of dynasty content moving forward with the NFL draft coming up. I would say expect two
57:52things as soon as the next couple of weeks over there. Uh we will do a Once the national championship game ends on
57:58Monday, I'm going to input the uh stats into the wide receiver model, and we'll do a video on kind of like too early uh
58:052026 uh rookie mock after that.
58:08And then we can also do I'm going to do a dynasty rankings update, which you can find over on the Patreon,
58:13patreon.com/ronstewart. So, if you're out there, you're a dynasty sicko, you want to see my dynasty rankings, that will be out next week. And then I'll do
58:19a follow-up video kind of highlighting my favorite buys and my favorite sells in dynasty. You can find that patreon.com/ronstewart in the description or the comment
58:27section down below. As always, thank you for watching, and I will see y'all in the next one.
58:37This is my [music and singing] castle.
58:43>> [singing] >> Give [music] me a stone like this froze.
58:47Ice cold.
58:49Oh, oh.
58:50I surround my body like I'm froze.

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