0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron, and today we're going to talk about these six running backs I am betting my entire fantasy
0:08football season on. I've done about 80 drafts so far over on Underdog, and these are the running backs I continue to draft over and over again because
0:16it's one thing to tell you guys these are the best running backs need to draft, and it's another to peel back the
0:21curtain and show you guys my exposures of the running backs I am actually drafting and putting my name and reputation on the line for. So, as
0:28always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new. And our first player we are going to talk about, our
0:33first running back I cannot stop drafting, is Saquon Barkley. Now, where I got this screenshot, which is Saquon Barkley, he's going at the 201, I am
0:42drafting him 17.3% of the time, this is from the Solver. This is a website that kind of breaks down your exposures to
0:50all of your players. You can kind of see it in a draft board setting. It's just nice to see uh the players you're
0:55picking the most in the early rounds in just a a more organized view. I have no sponsorship with the Solver. Uh this is
1:02just a tool that I'm showcasing just to show you guys who I am drafting a ton of in a more pretty
1:09formatted version than just showing the exposure line on Underdog. Now, of course, if you want to draft teams yourself, you can use my rankings over
1:17on the Patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart, and you can hop over on Underdog and use promo code Ron. When you play $5, you will get $50 to use on the site. They
1:26have the puppy, the bulldog, Best Ball Mania, all of that stuff. Again, I have drafted about 80 teams so far, and
1:33Saquon is on average exposure is 1 / 12, about 8.6%. So, I'm drafting Saquon a ton. He's my most drafted
1:42player inside the top 15 picks. Now, with Saquon, we have a long history with him, right?
1:48As a rookie, as a young player, I loved Saquon. He was the prince who was promised, awesome prospect, caught 90-plus balls as a rookie, and a
1:57monster. Then we go back to the well. He, of course, gets ankle injuries and ACL injuries and was never able to top that rookie year. Then he
2:05comes to the Eagles. We don't draft him that year. He's the RB1 overall and crushes me in fantasy football. Then last year, we were lukewarm on him. He
2:14then disappoints as a top five pick and now we have a nice opportunity at the 201 to get Saquon Barkley. And I'm
2:23honestly all in. Last year, he was coming off insane volume. He had one of 12 running back seasons ever with 480
2:30plus touches. That is including the playoffs during that Super Bowl run in 2024. Him and DeMarco Murray are the only running backs to hit 480 plus
2:39touches since 2001.
2:42So he was just coming off of a crazy crazy year in terms of uh volume that then tanks his efficiency. The whole
2:49Eagles have bad vibes and you have uh A.J. Brown versus Jalen Hurts and everybody's pointing fingers at Kevin Patullo. And even still, Saquon was the
2:57RB14 in points per game. That's not great, but it it's not like he fell off the face of the earth. He was just a
3:04bust in the first round, but somebody that was still usable in your lineup.
3:08Now we come into this year and the Eagles are still projected to have the 13th best offense by Vegas.
3:14This is, of course, a graphic I made from @ConnorAllenNFL over on Twitter. He took the look-ahead lines by Las Vegas and broke down which teams are slated to
3:23score the most points in the NFL. The Eagles are 13th here. I then took the offensive line ranking that you can find
3:29over on ESPN from Mike Clay's spreadsheets, where the Eagles still have the second best offensive line, right? With Landon Dickerson and
3:35everybody that comes with that unit, even without Jeff Stoutland there. And this is still a team that's projected for 10 plus wins, so it's going to be a
3:43team that probably bounces back. This is somebody in Nick Sirianni that over the last five or so years that he's been the
3:50coach, they have been top 12 in points, top 15 in yards in each of the four seasons prior to 2025. So, I think that
3:58we're going to see this team bounce back, and Saquon Barkley is uniquely positioned here because A.J. Brown is now gone, which means yes, a boost for
4:06DeVonta Smith, a boost for Dallas Goedert, but it also means a boost for Saquon Barkley. Now, the yards don't look good here. Uh in the four games
4:14without A.J. Brown, I guess Saquon just wasn't very efficient as a receiver.
4:17This is somebody that over his entire career has shown to be an awesome receiving back. He just hasn't been used that way in Philadelphia, but if we look
4:25at his 28 games with A.J. Brown, he's on about a 17-game pace of 45 targets, 34 receptions, but in four games without A.J. Brown, which spans
4:35over 2024 and 2025, he's been on pace for 76 targets and 60 receptions. If we got a Saquon year on the Eagles where he
4:43hits 50-plus receptions, he can go up there into that 20-plus point per game area and be an absolute smash at the
4:51one-two turn. On top of that, I am a big fan of what Sean Mannion is going to bring as the OC. He's talked about how
4:59he wants Jalen Hurts to be under center more. They want to do more play action, and under center I think is going to be
5:05a huge boost for Saquon. Under center last year, he had over 100 carries from under center, 4.92 yards per carry, 7.4% explosive run
5:15rate. Out of the shotgun and pistol, which is what the Eagles really lived out of last year, he went down to a 3.54
5:21yards per carry and a 2.9% explosive run rate. Those are huge downgrades from what he was doing under center. If we
5:28see more under center runs for Saquon, he is going to have a lot better efficiency. We also have rave reviews for Sean Mannion here. This is from Ryan
5:37Heath.
5:38Jordan Mailata on Kellen Moore, he'll make a great co- head coach one day. He, of course, becomes a great head coach.
5:45He then kind of like side stepped to Kevin Patullo quote last year there's carryover but it's no surprise to us in
5:50the OL or O-line room because of the way Stoutland coaches. But then on Sean Mannion, he said if I were to lock the
5:55three smartest people in one room, Sean would be there. Uh and I think Sean would just be by himself. Essentially just showing that Jordan Mailata went
6:03out of his way to praise Kellen Moore who we know is an awesome offensive mind in the NFL. He kind of sidestep the
6:09Kevin Patullo question and then he went above and beyond for Sean Mannion.
6:13Again, it's kind of a good track record.
6:16Just I'm bought into what Sean Mannion can be. I think that he can kind of revive this offense here. And then we
6:22also have the ball carrier speeds for Saquon. He hit two of the top 15 fastest ball carrier speeds last year hitting
6:3021.68 mph and 21.87.
6:34I don't think he's washed. I think he's going to catch more passes. I think the Eagles bounce back as a whole. And I
6:38think we also see Saquon with more under center looks. So I think that at the one-two turn, I have him as a tier ahead
6:45of that whole group of running backs between like Derrick Henry, Amani Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achane.
6:51I've been taking Saquon Barkley at the 201 over and over again. Now somebody on the other side of the board I continue
6:57to take is Jeremiah Love. He is now one of three running backs I am drafting over 20% of the time. He's going as the
7:04212 as the RB13 off the board. And first we can kind of look at the strategy of where we're at with fantasy football
7:12drafts right now. You look at the top two rounds.
7:15You take Ja'Marr Chase, Puka, JSN. You come back around and you can see at that 22, 21, 20 area Derrick Henry, Chase
7:22Brown, Kenneth Walker, Devon Achane. All of those guys are off the board. So a lot of the times I'm taking Jeremiah
7:28Love to pair with my Ja'Marr Chase, to pair with Puka Nacua because in half PPR, I want a running back through the
7:33first two rounds and I don't think I'm overpaying for the position. This is somebody who is seen as a generational running back
7:41prospect. Now whether you think that that's an overused term or not, Jeremiah Love was drafted third overall in an era where running backs aren't getting
7:48drafted that high really since Saquon Barkley.
7:52He is somebody at Notre Dame. He was awesome. He could have won a Heisman if not for splitting time with Audric
7:56Estime price. And we've seen over and over again this archetype of Audric Estime, Saquon Barkley, Zeke Elliott, Bijan Robinson, these can't miss running
8:04back prospects who go top 10 in the NFL draft always end up being a first rounder to a 1 2 turn pick in
8:11fantasy football drafts. Instead, you can get Jeremiah Love at a discount at the 2 3 turn. Now, of course, that discount is justified, right? This is
8:19somebody on the Arizona Cardinals. We look at the implied points per game.
8:22They're projected for the 31st implied points per game with the lowest win total in the league. This is a team that
8:29is one of the favorites to land the first overall pick this year. He's also splitting a backfield with Tyler Allgeier, James Conner, Trey Benson.
8:35But, I'll happily take that discount because of the talent and then also because of this offensive line. This offensive line for Arizona, you can see the offensive
8:44line ranking is 15th best. They have, of course, Paris Johnson that they put a first rounder on. They have Chase Okwara
8:51who they drafted this past year. They got a free agent Isaac Seumalo on the offensive line. They have a lot of
8:57pieces coming in here. They have a new offensive coordinator, play caller in Michael LaFleur. And then you also have this stat from Jahmyr Gibbs. One of the
9:04biggest points for Audric Estime last year was, of course, he was in a bad Raiders offense, but he was also cratered due to
9:12a really bad offensive line. Among 115 running backs with 250 or more rushes in a season, so that's from 2012 to 2025,
9:20Audric Estime ranked dead last in yards before contact per rush. So, essentially, he had an all-time bad offensive line as well. I think that
9:30won't be the case for Jeremiah Love, which is a really good sign. He's going to have a solid offensive line. I think
9:36this is going to also be a team that has kind of a fun offense. I'm assuming that Kyler Murray resigns with them for now.
9:42This is a team that Mike Clay is projected for the first most pass attempts in the NFL. They're going to be
9:47up tempo. They're going to be playing from behind with their bad defense.
9:49They're going to be in a dome. And I think when you look at this team and their skill position players, right? You
9:54have Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
9:58Kyler Murray set good offensive line, Jeremiah Love behind him. I don't think this is going to be a bottom three offense in the NFL.
10:05I think this is going to be a league average to below league average offense that is going to create opportunities for Jeremiah Love. The biggest link is
10:13that we have Mike LaFleur who is of course the brother of Matt LaFleur over in Green Bay. This is somebody who actually coached for the
10:21Jets. I'm of course a Jets fan and he was the coach for the Jets or the offensive coordinator for the Jets when
10:27Breece Hall was a rookie. Through six weeks of Breece Hall's rookie year, he was the RB6 in points per game over that
10:34span. He had 30 targets through six games and was still ramping up to be the main running back. That was fifth among
10:39running backs through six weeks. So I think we're going to see LaFleur really feed Jeremiah Love in the passing game.
10:44This is somebody that Mike Clay is projecting for 65 catches as the RB9.
10:47Somebody in Mike Clay who is very conservative when it comes to these rookies. He has Concepcion and all of your favorite rookie wide receivers
10:55outside of the top 50 in his projections. He is very high on Jeremiah Love despite the offense, despite the crowded backfield. And part of that is
11:03that I think that he can just create his own efficiency even in the context of this offense. As long as there's fine
11:08blocking and as long as he's getting targets out of the backfield, he should be good to go. He also of course has
11:15breakaway speed, 4-3 40, 210 plus pounds. This is somebody who led the class with 34% missed tackles forced per touch. Like there's really no
11:25reason for me to go all crazy about his prospect profile, but he is one of those guys. This is also somebody that had
11:301,300 plus rushing yards on less than 200 rush attempts last year. He has never been the full bell cow. I'm not
11:36expecting him to be, but I think just because of the PPR upside, the breakaway run upside, he should be somebody that
11:43beats out his RB13 point per game projection just based on his ADP. And then on top of that, you also have the
11:50playoff schedule. This is a team in the Cardinals that gets to play at home versus the Jets who allowed the third
11:55most fantasy points to running backs last year. They go on the road to the Saints in another dome. They allowed the
12:0017th most last year, but this is going to be a up-tempo Kellen Moore offense.
12:05And then the Raiders back at home in Arizona, another dome game versus a Raiders defense that allowed the ninth most fantasy points to running backs
12:13last year. Now, his teammate in college is somebody else that I'm drafting a bunch of. Now, 12.3% is definitely on the lower end compared to the rest of
12:21these names, but this is a range at the 601 I'm taking Lamar Jackson, I'm taking some of the wide receivers in this range. But,
12:28Jadarian Price is my highest drafted running back in that round five to six area. And I think it's kind of crazy. I have him
12:35in that same tier as the Travion Henderson, Bijan Robinson. You know, guys that are fun upside plays in messy backfields. But, you can get
12:45Jadarian Price a round later than those guys. So, I continue to take him. He is on a Seahawks team that just won the
12:52Super Bowl and they are projected to have the eighth most implied points per game by Vegas with the 10th best offensive line. That is a amazing
12:59situation for a running back. And the reason why I keep on bringing this up, the implied points per game and the
13:04offensive line, is because that was the big miss for me with Saquon, right? We can kind of bring it all full circle to
13:09Saquon who we talked at the top here.
13:12The big thing for him is that he was on an Eagles team that was amazing scoring points with one of the best offensive
13:17lines in the league. And the environment matters just as much as talent in the NFL. This Seahawks situation is perfect.
13:24Now, he's going as the RB26, right? So, we're talking as a high-end RB3. We're looking for about 12 plus points per
13:32game, and I keep on getting sort of directed back to the CEH rookie year as a first-round pick. He was a
13:38bust, but that was because he was a 1-2 turn pick. Everyone was excited about Andy Reid and the Chiefs and what Clyde
13:43Edwards-Helaire could be in that offense, but he was still a guy with 13.5 points per game. And if you got that at the 601, that would have been a
13:50fine outcome. Now, of course, this backfield is a little bit tricky.
13:54First, you have the Charbonnet stuff.
13:57This is from the fantasy doctors in the space that I follow. We have Brandon PT here. Uh Faedu next expect him to be
14:03ready by week one. If he does return early, it presents a significant risk of secondary injury. Year one following ACL typically shows production dip as well.
14:11Then, Deepak Chona here. Uh Charbonnet average timeline is 10 10 months. Week one equals eight months. Possible, but data favors sitting. If active, would
14:20expect major efficiency dip. RBs average six-game ramp-up in touches. So, we're talking about week one is eight months.
14:27Then, what? That would be about week eight is 10 months, which is really the usual timeline. Let's say week eight.
14:33And then, we're expecting another six-game ramp-up period. So, what? Week eight to like 14. Now, that does bring up an interesting conversation where
14:40we're usually drafting these rookies because they backload their production, right? Think RJ Harvey last year. Think when TreVeyon Henderson was leading into
14:48the fantasy playoffs last year. Zach Charbonnet is in a weird spot where his week one role he is a first-round drafted running back in the NFL, which
14:57usually always means that this player is going to get featured in their offense next to George Holani and Emmanuel Wilson. Two running backs I'm really not
15:05going to give much thought at all to.
15:08Uh I'll kind of touch on the George Holani stuff. He's been getting buzzed out of camp. This is somebody who had 22
15:12carries for 73 yards, 3.3 yards per carry last year. He's a day three pick out of Boise State.
15:18He's fine. I think that he'll be a pass, you know, catching back, passing down but the thing that he's going to
15:24out-touch or even out-snap J'Darien Price to me is pretty nuts. I I kind of tweeted about it here, but it's just J'Darien Price was a first-round
15:33pick at running back in the NFL. That means a lot in terms of your workload. George Holani to me really isn't a real threat
15:42to J'Darien Price early on. So, now you get like a weeks 1 through 8, I would say, weeks 1 through 6 of J'Darien Price
15:48as the lead back, but then I think it's kind of a parlay because if he looks good, this is a mystery box prospect. We
15:53haven't seen him play in the NFL yet. If he's just awesome, he might just run away with the job. Charbonnet working
15:58back from injury, maybe not himself. He could be less effective coming off the ACL tear. And then it could also just be
16:04a slow ramp-up, right? This could be a playoff team who maybe doesn't want to run Charbonnet into the ground, and they
16:08can really take that load off with J'Darien Price. And they could even still use them and maintain them where Charbonnet is the passing-down back. The
16:13way that I'm kind of thinking through J'Darien Price at this point is similar to Quinshon Judkins last year, right? A between-the-tackles grinder. This is
16:21somebody that when they were trailing in games, you saw a lot of Dylan Sampson.
16:25But think about Quinshon Judkins, right?
16:27A 50% snap share, 60% snap share, and then 70% plus of the rush attempts.
16:33But you have that on a good winning team who's going to have an awesome defense in Seattle, which means J'Darien Price
16:39is going to get a lot of run as the between-the-tackles grinder. Uh this is somebody coming out of college that really is a mystery box. He is the
16:46reason that Jeremiah Love didn't win a Heisman. He is the reason that Jeremiah Love never saw 200-plus rush attempts, and to me that means a lot. If you can
16:54go out here, be the backup to Jeremiah Love, still get drafted first round. He leads the class with an 11% 15-plus yard
17:00run rate. He's an explosive runner. He had three kick return touchdowns on 22 career kick returns. That's nuts. Just sort of showing you the home run ability
17:08of what this guy can be. Uh he had 761 yards from scrimmage last year, 13 touchdowns, all while being next to
17:14Jeremiah Love. Again, the biggest kind of elephant in the room is his receiving role, but again, I think because this is
17:19a good team, I'm fine buying into the the between the tackles grinder on a good Seattle Seahawks offense. Then we have Jaylen Warren. I'm drafting him
17:2914.8% of the time. He's going off the board at the 703 as the RB29.
17:35And this is somebody who finished as the RB18 in points per game last year, and also still has familiarity with Aaron
17:41Rodgers, somebody who at this point in his career is all familiarity, "Give me a vet. Don't give me any new faces." And
17:49when we're looking for receiving upside, Jaylen Warren presents that. He already has a season over 60 catches. Kenneth Gainwell, who had 70-plus catches last
17:56year, now leaves and goes to Tampa Bay.
17:59Yes, they bring in Rico Dowdle, who's much more of a between-the-tackles grinder, whereas Jaylen Warren, somebody who has a career 1.44 yards per out run,
18:06that would be a top 10 running back number in any given year, is perfectly set up with Aaron Rodgers, who was dead
18:12last last year in average depth of target. Dead last in average time to throw in terms of he was the fastest,
18:20like he got the ball out as quick as possible. And then on top of that, Aaron Rodgers had the second most passes
18:25behind the line of scrimmage, all setting up to feature the running back.
18:29Aaron Rodgers is at a point in his career where he does not want to get sacked or even hit really after he
18:34throws the ball. So, he is checking it down a ton. That is going to really be a huge boon for Jaylen Warren. Then you
18:41have this Cowboys offense. I think it's going to take a step forward in terms of being fun. Mike McCarthy, since being in Green Bay in like 2015,
18:50has been top 10 in offensive plays per game eight of those 10 years. Uh 20th in 2017, 13th in 2016 are the two low
18:58points. Those are still improvements on being 28th the Steelers were last year with Arthur Smith and Mike Tomlin. Then you look at his team pass attempts.
19:06Since 2016, he has been top 10 in all but two seasons. I think we're going to see more pass attempts. We're going to
19:12see more plays per game. It's going to be a more up-tempo modern offense with Mike McCarthy. On top of that, we have
19:19Michael Penman coming in. You still have DK Metcalf. They draft Jaylen Warren.
19:22Pat Freiermuth has had decent seasons in the past. Darnell Washington is fun.
19:26This offensive line is coming together, right? You have Zach Frazier. You have uh Fautanu. They draft uh the kid out of
19:32Arizona State. They still have Broderick Jones that isn't great, but is still trying to figure things out. They draft Jennings Dunker. There's just a lot of
19:38pieces on this offense to kind of be excited about, which is rare. They also have Mason McCormick, who's a good offensive lineman. So, there's a chance
19:45that this team actually can score points and play offense and go up tempo and pass the ball. I think that they'll be
19:51probably more towards like 15th to 20th in plays per game and throw the ball a lot more than people are expecting. And
19:57then if that all comes together in terms of the receiving role for Jaylen Warren, if he's the main back and Rico Dowdle is
20:02more of the reliever back that comes in and kind of spells him between the 20s as the grinder, then I think all of a
20:09sudden Jaylen Warren, just based on what he's been over his career, could really be a smash in these middle rounds. He
20:14has the second most missed tackles forced per touch since coming into the league. That's from Fantasy Points Data here. Below that, Jacob Gibbs, he is
20:21RB11 in explosive plays, tied with Saquon in 2025. And then since entering the NFL, he is RB9 in explosive play rate, tied with Bijan and ahead of
20:31Saquon Barkley. Then we'll go even deeper here.
20:35And we'll talk about RJ Harvey. He's on 17.3% of my team so far. He's going in the eighth round as the RB31. I know
20:42that the big thing for him right now is that >> Seems like for training camp he's going
21:06to be fine. It shouldn't be an issue.
21:08I'm not really worried about it. I'll just continue to draft him if he falls down the board. Now, of course, last
21:14year he was behind JK Dobbins for most of the year. JK Dobbins gets hurt in week 10. RJ Harvey then becomes the RB13
21:19in points per game with 15.2 points per game. Of course, now JK Dobbins is healthy, but JK Dobbins coming off another injury,
21:28getting another year older. Uh they do draft Jaleel Ford who's a strong round four running back, but he is also a day
21:33three running back pick. There is no guarantee he gets any run here. And RJ Harvey was an elite receiver last year.
21:39He had the third most receiving touchdowns for running back, sixth best passer rating when targeted, sixth most receiving first downs, eighth most
21:45receptions, eighth most receiving yards, 12th best yards per route run. Now, his issue is as a runner. Third worst success rate, fourth worst rushing yards
21:54over expected per attempt, fourth worst stuff rate, seventh worst yards per carry, eighth worst yards after contact per attempt, ninth worst explosive run
22:03rate. So, we really need a marriage of these things. We need this receiving efficiency in this receiving role that he already has earned with Sean Payton.
22:09He is somebody that is going to get work in the screen game as like this whatever Joker role you want to
22:17you know, fantasize about. But, we need the rushing cuz if we can get a marriage of the two where RJ Harvey's
22:22catching 60 plus balls and then flirting with 200 plus attempts, all of a sudden RJ Harvey is going to crush this year on
22:29a Broncos offense that's going to score points behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Now, last year yes,
22:35the rushing efficiency was poor, but it's not all that crazy for a running back in year two to get better, to take
22:42a step forward. This is from a Ryan Heath Staple over on Twitter. He wrote an article a couple years ago about age curves. Pretty much showing
22:51the fantasy performance by career year for running backs. By far the biggest jump for a running back is from year one
22:57to year two. He said, "Generally RBs take a big step forward from year year to year two with peak production maintained from year two to year six.
23:04Now, I'm not saying R.J. Harvey is Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon or Le'Veon Bell, but there's been plenty of running backs that bounce up and down in
23:10terms of yards per carry. Efficiency is awesome, but most of the times it isn't sticky. We saw CMC as a rookie go from
23:193.7 yards per carry to five, Mixon went from 3.5 to 4.9, Le'Veon Bell went from 3.5 to 4.7. It wouldn't be that shocking
23:27for R.J. Harvey in his second year in a more complicated offense with Sean Payton that he finally gets it, things click,
23:34and all of a sudden he's an efficient runner, he's getting featured in the passing game, and he makes a year two
23:38jump on a good offense and becomes a absolute home run pick in the eighth round. Now, the last running back I'll
23:46talk about kind of a bonus pick here. He doesn't quite qualify. 6.2% is actually under that 8.6%, but I do have a rankings
23:54update that just happened over on the Patreon, patreon.com/ronstewart. You have my rankings, my underdog upload, everything that you can get in-season,
24:02rest-of-season rankings, all that good stuff and more patreon.com/ronstewart in the description in the comment section down below.
24:08I pushed up Breece Hall to a spot where I also am in about like 50 slow drafts as well, where you can do drafts on
24:13Underdog that are 8-hour clocks, and I can tell I'm telling you, by the time that these things finish up, I'll be
24:19like 15% Breece Hall. I continue to press the button on Breece over and over again. It's similar to a Jeremiah Love,
24:26if that first round happens where I take, you know, Puka, Chase, J.J. Then come back around, maybe I take Nico or
24:32Brock Bowers, and then round three comes and I need a running back, I'm taking Breece Hall every time. These other running backs in this range, right? You
24:38have Kyren Williams, who's never hit 40-plus receptions. You have Etienne, he's done it once. You have Javonte Williams, who has done it a couple
24:44times, but last year his 0.4 yards per route run was so bad that there's just no way they feature him in a serious way
24:51in that Cowboys passing game. So, now when we're talking about receiving upside, Breece is the most obvious answer in this range. He's already hit
25:0076 receptions in a season before. He's hit 57 in in a season before. His career 1.51 yards per route run is even better
25:07than Jaylen Warren's, which is a top-10 number in pretty much every year. He's one of seven running backs to hit 29
25:13plus receiving yards per game since Breece Hall was drafted. His receiving upside is just absolutely absurd. Last year, he just didn't have the
25:21opportunity to kind of show that off.
25:24Off, this was a team that just was brutal. You had Justin Fields, you had Tyrod Taylor, you had Brady Cook. Ryan Heath highlights here.
25:32They were 159th of 160 teams over the past 5 years by total passing yards with 2,781.
25:40Brutal.
25:41Brutal. But, we now get a spot where Geno Smith comes in. Say what you want about Geno Smith, but he is going to be
25:47a below-average pocket passer. And that's really all Breece Hall needs. He needs somebody that instead of Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor, where they are
25:55taking off and scrambling, they are instead checking it down to Breece Hall.
25:58On top of that, this offensive line is really rounding into form here. Yes, the Jets have the 29th projected implied points per game, but they have the 14th
26:07best offensive line by ESPN. I think that's underselling them a bit. Membou, the rookie, he is absolutely awesome.
26:13Could have won Rookie of the Year last year. Then you have Alijah Vera-Tucker, first-round tackle, rounding into form.
26:18Joe Tippmann, they just extended a really, really good interior offensive lineman. Things are taking shape on the offensive line. Things are taking shape
26:26in terms of a quarterback that can actually check down to Breece Hall. And the schedule really lightens up this year. You look at in terms of Vegas
26:33forecasted win total. So, instead of using last year's results, it's more how are these teams expected to do this year? The Jets have the fifth easiest
26:41schedule by Sharp Football Analysis, which just means we're going to get more kind game scripts. We're going to get better blocking, more efficiency.
26:50We're going to get more check-downs to Breece Hall, and last year he finally went back to looking like himself after some lost seasons due to injury. He was
26:59fourth in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt. And even in this offense where we are dealing with
27:06Brandy Cook, Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields. Even if you just take out the Brandy Cook games, he was the RB 20 in
27:12points per game in a lost season at 14.4 points per game. I think that we could see him go from 14.4 points per game to
27:19getting Geno to getting a, you know, just below average. Just it just can't be a dead last offense and all of a sudden Breece
27:25Hall can hit 17 points per game as like true RB 6 or better in terms of like a top six running back season is very much in
27:34Breece Hall's range of outcomes. Yes, Braelon Allen is there. Yes, Isaiah Davis is there.
27:39They'll always talk up Braelon Allen.
27:40They like Braelon Allen, but Breece Hall has had really good seasons fending off Michael Carter, Braelon Allen, Dalvin Cook his whole career. Uh Braelon Allen
27:49even in Mike Clay's projection is projected for 100 plus touches and four touchdowns. Breece Hall still gets to RB 13 in his projection outproducing or I
27:58guess like matching his baseline ADP of RB 14. And I still think that there is untapped upside there. If he gets those
28:05explosive runs, breaks away for long touchdowns, if he can get more receptions than even currently projected, I think Breece Hall has true
28:12RB1 upside. In the third round is my favorite running back pick in that range. Now, that is going to do it for
28:18us today. As always, if you enjoyed, leave a like. Subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys in the next one.
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