0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and 2025 was the year of the running back in fantasy
0:06football. There were five 20 plus point per game scores at the position, the most since 2018. And at the top was
0:12Christian McCaffrey with over 415 PPR points, the most by a running back in the 17game era. And yet, the only two
0:20players on 25% or more of ESPN fantasy football championship rosters were two wide receivers, Puka Nakua and JSN. The only 20 plus point per game scorers at
0:30wide receiver were the perfect counter punch to beat out the running backs last year. So today we are on a mission to
0:38find the 20 plus point per game scores at wide receiver to go toe-to-toe with the high-end running backs in 2026.
0:45We're going to talk about why 20 plus point per game scores at wide receiver are so valuable, where we can find them,
0:50what they've looked like in the past, and then apply it to the first five rounds of 2026 fantasy football drafts to find the next JSN and the next Puka
0:58Nakua in 2026. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new. I know a lot of you guys have been asking
1:04for the legendary wide receiver video, and that is this. Now, the reason why the 20 plus point per game scores at
1:10wide receiver were just as impactful as Christian McCaffrey and Bejian Robinson, if not more impactful, is because of positional scarcity. You can see the
1:182025 wide receiver scoring. This is from Ryan Heath over at Fantasy Points. And you can see 23.4 points at the top, that
1:25is Puka. Then you have 21.2, that is JSN. And you get down to the wide receiver 6 at only 17.2 points per game,
1:32the lowest for the wide receiver six overall since 2017. And then you just have red numbers throughout the rest of this chart with the wide receiver 20
1:41having 12.5 points per game, the lowest on this entire chart dating all the way back to 2012. To make things a little
1:47bit easier to digest, 2025 had 12 14 plus point per game wide receivers, whereas 2024 had 22. You are beating that flat tier of replacement level
1:58players by such a wide margin. Now, I do want to say as well, the legendary running back thing, if you haven't
2:03watched it, we we covered the legendary running back. What that means, that was Christian McCaffrey, Bejon, and JT last year. Super rare, high-end running back
2:10producers at wide receiver. It's a little bit less rare. You can see across the board, we're really only shooting for 20 plus points per game because of
2:17the positional scarcity. We had two of them in 2025, we had one in 2024, but we had five in 2023. We had four in 2022.
2:26So, it's not as rare, but it is just as impactful, especially in this current climate. So, for the rest of the video,
2:32you'll hear me say 20 plus point per game wide receiver, legendary wide receiver. They're both the same thing.
2:38Know that they aren't as rare as the running back counterpart. Now, you might also look at this chart and say, well,
2:43this happened in 2017 and then 2018 the entire position rebounded, but I'm not as optimistic. This seems to be a trend
2:49over the last few years here, and it all dates back to the usage of heavy personnel. This is a really awesome
2:56chart from JJ Zachares at late round QB on Twitter and it shows the wide receiver share of slot targets which is
3:03just how much of these slot targets something we know is very fantasy football friendly especially in PPR formats you get open in the slot you get
3:10a mismatch against a linebacker safety nickel corner and it's how Cooper Cup in 2021 has the best fantasy football season ever for a wide receiver. We are
3:21having a trend here where since 2018 it has been falling off and the reason for that is this revival or not even revival
3:28but this new hotness of heavy personnel.
3:31This is from Jared Smler here showing the percentage of passes coming with three plus wide receivers on the field over the last five seasons. We went all
3:38the way down in 2025 to 68.9%. What this tells us is that two wide receiver sets, 12 personnel, one wide receiver sets, 13
3:46personnel is in vogue right now and it's squeezing out your Khila Kir and your slot only players that used to make a
3:55difference in fantasy football or even the three wide receiver set guys, right?
3:58Like Josh DS and Jaden Reed. They're all getting pushed to the side and all of a sudden it is now your elite 20 plus
4:04point per game producers and then a really flat tier of wide receivers making it so that if you can find a 20
4:09plus point per game wide receiver they are super super valuable even if their raw points per game can't compete with a
4:15Christian McAffrey their impact over the replacement level wide receiver can. So now that we know we're looking for 20 plus point per game wide receivers, we
4:22understand their impact. who understand that now wide receiver twos are as flat as ever. And this is a trend that's probably going to continue into 2026.
4:30We need to figure out where can we find the 20 plus point per game wide receivers and what do they look like?
4:35Here I split up the 20 plus point per game wide receivers versus running backs by round since 2021. The running backs
4:41outperform the wide receivers in round one, but they can both be found early on. Round two about even three each. And
4:48then in round three, you can find the receiver. In round four, you can find a 20 plus point per game wide receiver.
4:52And then of course round five that is Josh Jacobs in blue for the running back. And then round eight is all the
4:57way back in 2021. That is where Debo was found. But for this video we're going to keep it to the first five rounds. I know
5:04that this says round four, right? Rounds one through four is everybody and then Debo's all the way in round eight. But
5:08for this video, we'll expand it one more round just in case if you have a league out there where maybe a wide receiver
5:14falls to round five or ADPs aren't super consensus. So I expanded it one more.
5:19So, we're going to look at the first five rounds of wide receivers in 2026, but we also need to know what we are
5:24looking for. So, I went all the way back to 2015 to find the 20 plus point per game wide receivers since then that
5:31played a minimum of 13 games. And we now have a list of every single season. It is 29 since 2015. We have their points
5:41per game in that season, the season it happened, how many games they played, what year of their career were they in,
5:45right? So year four means rookie year, second year, third year, fourth year. We have their point per game high in their
5:52previous three seasons, minimum eight games played. Their target share in their 20 plus point per game season.
5:57Their previous year first downs per out run. So what was your efficiency? First downs per out run is a little bit weird.
6:03We usually use targets per out run or yards per out run. But first downs per run gives us something we aren't solving
6:08for here, right? Points per game can kind of give you yards per out run, target shares, targets per out run.
6:13First downs per sprout run was something I wanted to try and test to see what we could kind of glean from this
6:18information. And then team environment, your offensive points for rank. So, how many touchdowns is your offense scoring?
6:24And then pass attempts rank, which is just how much passing volume can your offense support, right? Because we want passing volume, we want touchdowns, we
6:32want target share, and then we're testing for some other things. And that gives us the numbers across the bottom.
6:38Your average 20 plus point per game score at wide receiver has about 22 points per game. He's in his fifth or
6:43sixth career year. He's had about 19.9 points per game or better over his last three seasons. His target share was about a 29.4% target share, 11.7% first
6:53downs per out run in his prior season.
6:55His offense is fringe top 10 in scoring and his offense is fringe top 15 in pass attempts. Now that gives us a decent
7:03list satisfying this criteria. You have CD Lamp, Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, Aman Rosane Brown as four guys that give or take satisfy that criteria, but that's
7:13not telling you anything different. Now, I wanted to point out something else to look out for when we're talking about 20
7:17plus point per game scores at the position, and it's the year three wide receiver. You look at the career years here all the way on the left. The most
7:23popular career year for a wide receiver to hit 20 plus points per game was year three. Seven of the 29 came in year
7:29three. And the more interesting part about year three is that these players not always had the prior production. I'm kind of moving myself around here, but
7:38you can see JSN last year, year three, his previous high points for him was 14.9. Debo here at 2021, his previous
7:44high was 12.5. Similar deal with DeAndre Hopkins, his previous high was 14.4. So there's a lot of these year three guys
7:50like JSN last year. I think it's not I it's somewhere between a hopeless endeavor and shooting for the stars of trying to find this year's JSN. There
7:58might not be. But part of the reason I wasn't in on JSN was, oh, he hadn't done it in the past. He's on a low volume
8:04offense. But when it comes to the year three breakout, we have to use our imagination was one of the big lessons
8:11from this research is that you can make massive leaps from 14 points per game up to 20 plus points per game heading into
8:18year three as a true breakout candidate.
8:21where JSN reached a whole other level.
8:23DeAndre Hopkins hit a whole other level in an offense out to the top 20 in points scored, the worst on this entire
8:30list, but he just happened to kind of exceed his environment. So then I fed all that data through a regression analysis trying to figure out what
8:37actually matters when it comes to a 20 plus point per game ceiling and what are the actual levers to pull when it comes
8:42to a 20 plus point per game ceiling. And what we found was target share, team scoring rank, and pass attempts rank.
8:50Everything else was noise, right? So, we're talking raw targets per game.
8:54We're talking your previous point per game best. And just like the legendary running back video, I think it's better to have less components and keep it
9:01simpler. In the past, we've had like a 12 list checklist of, oh, he kind of fits this, he kind of fits this, and
9:06it's just a lot of noise. This is at least simple, and it makes a lot of sense. Target share being your first and
9:11foremost bread and butter makes sense.
9:13It is the luggage every wide receiver carries around with them. And target share is the stickiest stat we have year-toear at wide receiver. Roughly, if
9:22you are in your sixth season in the NFL and your target share hangs around 26%, it's going to hang around 26%. But how
9:30that filters us to upside is that your 26% target share. If all of a sudden your offense goes from bottom five in
9:36scoring and bottom five in pass attempts, but that goes to top 15 in scoring, top 15 in pass attempts, and your target share stays the same, all of
9:43the sudden you have that same percentage of the pie, but the pie got way bigger and so did the touchdown pie. So target
9:49share is the main driver of upside. Then you have team scoring rank, which makes sense as well. That's your touchdown upside. Of course, you need touchdowns
9:55in fantasy football to score points.
9:57Then also, if you are a high-scoring offense, you're probably getting a lot of yards in that offense. And then team pass attempt ranked which is just
10:03passing volume. Right? It's good to have a big target share but if you can have a big target share in a uptempo lot of
10:10pass attempts offense that is scoring touchdowns then that is the makings of how you have the Cooper Cup 2021 season.
10:16So that brings us to this. We made an adjustment model. We took the median projected points per game an average of
10:22Sharp football analysis fantasy life and ESPN. We combined all of those and then we have a model here based on target
10:28share, team scoring, and passing volume that we then put together to give us an adjustment on the base projection and give us a ceiling point per game
10:36projection. Now, it's also worth mentioning that we don't just want to take these at face value. All of these 20 plus point per game scores at wide
10:42receiver have been between their career year 2 and their career year 11. Their target share has been 23% target share or better. Their offense is ranked 22nd
10:51or better in scoring. and they have had a previous three-year high of 16 points per game more if they're in year four or
10:58later. Again, if you're in year three or you're year two, you can definitely look past some things and just say, "Well,
11:02he's going to hit the next level. He's too young to hold that against him." But all the guys past year three, you want
11:08to hold their prior production against them. So, with that being said, here's the goods. Here are your wide receivers in the first five rounds of Yahoo Expert
11:17Consensus rankings, which to me, that is the sharpest home league ADP. and I wanted to just make sure that we are
11:23including all of the potential candidates to hit 20 plus points per game. All I will ask is please leave a like on this video, subscribe if you
11:31enjoy these kinds of in-depth data breakdowns. We put a lot of research into these and I'm glad you enjoy them.
11:38But you can see here we have every single player. They are sorted by their Yahoo rank. We have their ceiling projection. That is again their
11:45projected points per game adjusted based on their projected target share, their offensive points rank and their pass attempt rank in terms of their team
11:52level production. All of those are also taken from the average of those three projection sources to give us a rough median. There is no bias. There is no
12:02potential errors there. It is just a super fair, super even. Three different sources. What do they all come together and say when it comes to the consensus?
12:12So, we're going to go 30 wide receivers deep to make sure we don't miss out on the next Cooper Cup or the next JSN. And
12:18I'm going to give you my takeaways round by round. So, first we have round one.
12:22It's sorted by their ceiling projected points per game. We then have their, of course, their median projected points per game, then their projected target
12:30share, then their projected offensive points for, and then their projected pass attempt rank. And then I also added their career year because that is
12:36somewhat important. And then their last three seasons point per game careerhigh, which it's the first round. There's nothing that really sticks out here. I
12:43will say as well, I'm going to be highlighting the green player in each round is my pick to hit that 20 plus
12:48point per game ceiling, but the yellows are also strong bets in their own right.
12:52Of course, it's round one. All of these players are in their prime years four and year seven. All of them have hit 20
12:57plus points per game in the last three seasons. They all hit 21 plus point per game in their ceiling projection. They
13:04are all first round wide receivers and worthy of that price tag. just kind of loop in the best draft pick video from
13:10yesterday where we're talking about, oh, the running back running back start is super tempting at that one-two turn.
13:17This is why CD Lamb and Justin Jefferson for me are still my I want to say my 11th and 12th ranked player where on
13:23that turn I'm taking one of these guys.
13:24They both have super super clear 20 plus point per game upside. They've done it in the past. I am not going to pass on
13:31that because the running back running back start feels better. Now, my boring pick for wide receiver 1 overall is Jamar Chase. He is my wide receiver one.
13:39He is someone that has a 25 plus point per game ceiling. We've seen him do it at a 23.7 point per game high over the
13:46last three seasons. His offense is top five in points scored in terms of projections. His target share is 28.1%.
13:53He is on the team that is going to lead the NFL in pass attempts. It is just a no-brainer. But everybody else is really
13:59solid. I know that Aman Rashane Brown beats out JSN here, but we're talking .03 and then JSN beats him for the
14:05median projection by 05 and then JSN also has the highest projected target share on this list in a top 10 offense.
14:12I wouldn't overthink it or use this data to prop up Aman Ross St. Brown over JSN.
14:17They're both really strong bets. I still prefer JSN. Now, what this data did do for me, we are going to move CD Lamb
14:25ahead of Justin Jefferson. Cedam has the better median projection and he also has the better ceiling projection. And yes, I understand that George Piggin is there
14:34and it feels like George Piggin limits his ceiling. But we just saw with Jamar Chase in 2024. He won the Triple Crown.
14:40This is somebody that had T. Higgins on that same team go for 18.5 points per game. And Jamar Chase's 26.8% target
14:47share was enough to get the job done. CD Lamb projected for 25.8% in terms of his target share. It's not crazy to think
14:53that in a ceiling outcome, his legendary 20 plus point per game season, that CD Lamb could go up to a 27% target share
15:02even next to George Pickkins. And we've seen him do it as recently as 2023 where he had 23.7 points per game. I'm not
15:09going to count him out. He feels safer.
15:11I am of the belief that Dak Prescott in this offense that's projected to be top six in pass attempts and points scored
15:18can do what Matthew Stafford did last year where he throws for 40 plus touchdowns. We have Pukanua at 23 points per game. You have Devonte Adams up
15:25there at 17 plus points per game and both of the wide receivers can pay off which now takes us to round two and
15:31what's going to stick out right away is George Pickkins having the highest ceiling projection. The thing is the model doesn't know that Cedam is ahead
15:38of him. So, I think that his target share at 21.7% is probably capped. He would probably need to get to 25% plus
15:44target share to hit the 20 plus point per game threshold. There's never been I looked back, I don't think there's ever
15:50been a pair of teammates to both hit 20 plus points per game. So, you would need him to pass CD Lamb and maybe that's
15:57possible. I would just personally doubt it. So, Pickkins I'm not going to have as a 20 plus point per game score even
16:03as a yellow strong bet. I don't see it.
16:05Even though the model likes him, but again, it doesn't know that CD Lamb is in front of him. It just knows that his
16:11target share has room to grow in a strong offense. But I still think at the two-3 turn, George Pickkins is a really
16:16strong pick. But then we'll go to my pick to make it out of round two as a 20 plus point per game scorer. And it's AJ
16:22Brown who falls 01 short of 20 plus points per game. He comes out at 19.9 here. But my biggest gripe with the
16:29projections is that yes, they're trying to be in a median outcome. They are trying to be fair, but 24.7% target share for AJ Brown feels low. His last
16:40three full season target shares, or really just his last three target shares, so 2025, 2024, and 2023, 29.5%, 34.4%, 30.1%. I just have a tough time
16:51believing that he stays under 25% in terms of target share. This is somebody everywhere he's gone, he has dominated targets. He has been an efficiency
16:58monster from a yards per run perspective. And on this Patriots team, I think they have upside for more than that 22nd in pass attempts number as
17:04well, where last year they were six to neutral pass rate. And they've been talking all summer long about playing more uptempo, no huddle offense with
17:12Drake May. And when we talk about these levers to pull him going to a new team, I think is good for him, right? JSN last
17:17year didn't go to a new team, but he got a new offensive coordinator. He got a new quarterback. AJ Brown now gets a new
17:22play caller system quarterback. We saw with Stfan Diggs in 2020 with Josh Allen. I just think this could be one of
17:28those situations where AJ Brown goes to a new place and crushes in his first year. So, I think that his ceiling in
17:34this exercise is a little bit understated, but I still think going from 15.1 points per game up to 19.9 is still a really nice illustration of his
17:42ceiling, right? Somebody like Nico Collins at 15.2 points per game only goes up to 19.3. So, AJ Brown gets a big
17:49boost here, but I think that target share number can really get up there to the high 20% range. Now, Drake London is
17:55my other yellow pick here where I think that he is a more of a high floor pick than he is a high ceiling pick where his
18:00projected points per game at 16.3 is a full point per game ahead everybody else on this list and yet 20.3 points per
18:07game as his ceiling is only point4 higher than AJ Brown. So, he signals to me somebody that didn't really rise to
18:14the top of this list despite getting a point per game head start or somebody that's more of a high floor play just
18:18given the context of this offense being 25th in points scored in terms of projections.
18:24Could you make the case that we get a new play caller and a new quarterback similar to the Seahawks and you can kind
18:28of squint and see, well, what if Tua does kind of turn back the clock on what he was in the early 2020s with Mike
18:34McDaniel? Maybe, but I would be shocked.
18:37So I am as a high floor play, but floor plays at wide receiver are fine. We talked about the legendary running back
18:42upside video where running backs are very boomer bust. If you take one early, he has to have monstrous upside. Well, if you pass on the running back, it's
18:50not a terrible idea to go for floor. I'm never of the idea that I want to shoot for floor in the second round, but there
18:55does come a point in the middle to second round where a 16 point per game floor at wide receiver is extremely
19:01valuable. So, I wouldn't take this or take what I'm saying of him being a high floor play as a bad thing for Drake
19:06London. Then we have Nico Collins and Malik Neighbors where I would just feel a lot better about them in the third
19:11round. Nico Collins has been efficient.
19:12He's been good. It just comes down to him staying healthy. CJ Strad not being terrible. And this is a team that wants
19:18to play defense and run the ball. So, it's just tough from an environment standpoint. It's tough from a target share standpoint, right? 23.9% on this
19:24list here, but he has hit 17.6 points per game in his previous three seasons.
19:29That's a strong signal. And then I'll also say in Nico Collins defense is that right before I recorded this video, Jaden Higgins tears his ACL. The rest of
19:36this receiver room is decimated. Jaden Higgins down with an ACL. Tank Dell banged up. Jaylen Null banged up. Xavier Hutchinson isn't good at football. Maybe
19:44they trade for like a Kahan Booty or something. But this could be all Nico Collins. You could then bump that target
19:49share from 23.9% up to 26% 27% and you can start to squint and see how he starts to flirt with 20 plus points per
19:56game. I wouldn't use this data to disparrage Nico Collins. Same thing with Malik Neighbors. His is tough, right?
20:03When we don't take the career year into account with him being a year three player, I'm kind of throwing him being
20:08on the bottom here out the window. Uh again, when we talk about the amount of year three 20 plus point per game
20:14scorers, we want to respect the upside here. And with Malik Neighbors, it makes sense. He is somebody that in his rookie
20:20year, he led the NFL with a 34.9% target share. I have to believe that his projected points per game here, his
20:26target share, all of that is factored in for the torn ACL. And that's where this exercise gets a little bit murky when it
20:32comes to Malik Neighbors off a torn ACL, the final eight games. Could he be a 20 plus point per game wide receiver? And
20:38what would that value be like? There's a lot of different calculus going on. I also like him as a two-3 turn wide
20:43receiver, but it is a little bit sobering to see, okay, his ceiling isn't that crazy. He's on a team outside the
20:48top 20 in points scored and outside of the top 20 in pass attempts when we talk about passing game environments. So, if
20:54he's going to get there, it's going to be on the back of a monstrous 34% 35% target share. And then even with that
21:00target share as a rookie, he only had 18.2 points per game. I say only because if you're going to hit that target
21:05share, you should be at 20 plus. But in year three, could he find more efficiency on that target share? All of
21:12that is in play. I wouldn't bury Malik Neighbors because of this. Which then brings us to round three. And my pick
21:17here is actually Crystal L to make it out and hit the 20 plus point per game season. And I know that's a little bit
21:23surprising given that he's second to last on this list and sealing point per game projection, but we're talking the difference between 19.4 and 19.9 in Z
21:32Flowers. But Crystal Lave, I think it just makes sense when we talk about the upside here. We've seen him be a massive
21:38target earner throughout his entire career on a targets per outr run basis.
21:42I think that 25% target share number is a little bit low. Not fully counting the fact that Jordan Tyson is hurt probably
21:49until the middle of the season. It's going to be an uptempo offense so we get that top 10 pass attempt ranked number.
21:55And then the biggest lever here is Tyler Shuck heading into year two. Can he be and look, we're we're we're dreaming
22:01big. Can Tyler Shuck be this year's Sam Darnold? An out of nowhere quarterback that takes a step forward and engineers a top 10, top 15 offense in the NFL?
22:11Because if that happens, Chris Olive has all the makings here. He is heading into year five, which is a prime number when
22:18we talk about these 20 plus point per game seasons. Of course, year three is number one, but year five is number two
22:25on this list. And he's also already hit 16.8 points per game in his last three seasons, giving him that qualifier of if
22:32you're not going to be in your first three years as a breakout candidate, you need to have a season of 16 or more
22:37points per game. He satisfies all of it.
22:39So, while his point per game projection isn't 20 plus, it's right there. And I could see him taking that next step
22:46forward as a 20 plus point per game wide receiver. And I would actually have him ranked closer to the round two guys of
22:51Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins, and George Pickkins than this cohort of round three wide receivers. Which makes this tough because if Crystal Lave
22:59wasn't among this group, Zay Flowers would be my green pick to hit 20 plus points per game. But he has two glaring
23:05issues here. First, you have passing volume. only 31st overall in pass attempts. The Ravens will be run heavy, but we've seen with a JSN last year that
23:14passing volume isn't everything. If you can get that 24.6% target share up to a 30% target share, but that's a massive
23:21leap. And then we have touchdown upside.
23:23Sure, he's in a top five scoring projected offense, but he has been somebody left out of the fun when it comes to the red zone with Lamar
23:29Jackson, but there is upside here with a new offensive coordinator and Declan Doyle. Can you get another Lamar Jackson 35 plus passing touchdown season? And
23:38can Zay Flowers be used in a different role in that system? But then we also look at the last three seasons. His peak
23:45is 14.3 points per game. When we get outside of the first three years, we're looking for 16 plus points per game in
23:51his previous three years. He doesn't have the prior production. He has some shaky things going on, but I still do like Zay Flowers to outproduce his round
23:58three ADP and potentially flirt with 20 plus points per game if he can get on the same page with Lamar Jackson in the
24:05red zone. Unlike Flowers, I don't have the confidence that a Jaylen Herz can throw for 30 plus passing touchdowns. Last year, Devonte
24:14Smith had like a career low in touchdowns at like four. That's where it gets tough. I'm a lot more certain that
24:19the Eagles in close inside the 10 yard line are just going to run with Saquon or do the tush push, but we have a
24:25sample with Devonte Smith where without AJ Brown, he's been at 30% target shares. I know that it says 25.4% here.
24:31But if there's anybody on this list that can really outperform that, it would be Devonte Smith getting to a 30% target
24:37share, scoring 10 touchdowns like JSN did, and then getting there on a target hog target share and yardage. Now, I know the highest ceiling point per game
24:46projection on this list is Rashi Rice. I begrudgingly put him in yellow. I get the model likes him, but I think that
24:51there are some clear flaws with his profile. Yes. Is he a target hog? Is he in a top 12 offense in points and pass
24:57attempts, sure, but he is just such a PPR scam of a player that I have such a hard time believing that they're just
25:04going to continue to run their offense through a guy who is always hurt, always doing things off the field, and just not
25:09representing what an NFL offense looks like. You look at his yards run in AOT here, he is operating at a career AOT of
25:165.1. That is absurd. That is like a Debo Samuel level A DOT. And I don't see Rashi Rice as a Debo Samuel level
25:23receiver after the catch. He has had a career 8.1 Yak perception, which is really good. But coming off another knee surgery in rehab. Is he going to be that
25:32same player? I wouldn't bet on it. And then you also have Ryan Heath here showing that he had 6.5 fantasy points
25:38per game on screens last year. Nearly double the next closest wide receiver. A lot of those screens could go to Kenneth
25:43Walker. They could go to Xavier Worthy if he's healthy. They could go to this new guy, Cyrus Allen. I would just be
25:49shocked if they run back the let's give six points per game of fantasy production and screens to Rashi Rice.
25:55Let's build the whole offense out of Rashi Rice. I just can't see it. So, I don't know that he has 20 plus point per
26:01game upside from what I'm seeing, but I knew that the projections would like him. Uh, the two guys that I'm pretty
26:06confident don't have 20 plus point per game upside is T. Higgins 19.1% target share with Jamar Chase there. He can't get there, but he's still a great pick.
26:13We saw him hit 18.5 points per game in the Triple Crown season. He could do that again. And then Jaylen Wadd, I will
26:20say Jaylen Wadd's really pushed up on Yahoo. I think he's a fine fourth or fifth round pick. But it was a little
26:26bit sobering to see him have a 21% target share. Now, it is good that this is a team that is projected to have the
26:31sixth most pass attempts in the NFL. But Vegas really doesn't like the Denver Broncos offense, ranking them out to the top 20 in points scored. Now, where I
26:41would push back is a 21% target share feels really low for Jaylen Wadd. This is from Ryan Heath here showing that on
26:46519 routes with Tyreek Hill off the field, he has been at a 29% targets per out run. I would guess he finishes more
26:52in that 24% 25% area and showcases more upside than he's giving credit for here.
26:58But at the end of the day, this is somebody going into year six where his previous best season is only 14.2 points
27:03per game, the lowest on this list. So, something to think about with Jaylen Wadd. We're all excited about the new move, but this was a little bit
27:10sobering. Then we have round four. My pick here is Garrett Wilson. He has the highest floor on this list at 14.8
27:16points per game. He has the second highest ceiling at 18.5 points per game.
27:20And the biggest lever on his ceiling is the 26.5% target share. This is somebody that in two of his last three seasons
27:26has hit 30% or higher target share. I actually ran it through the model. If he could hit a 30% target share, how much
27:33higher would this offense have to go in that scenario? and they would only have to go up to the 25th scoring offense.
27:37So, if Garrett Wilson can dominate targets again and this offense could just be not bottom five in points scored, Garrett Wilson could go berserk
27:44in 2026. And we also see when it comes to year five wide receivers, they are the next best bet after year three. Year
27:51five is where most wide receivers hit their peak production season. I could see that happening for Garrett Wilson in what should be a league average pass
28:00attempt volume offense. He should dominate all the targets. And then if this offense could just not be 31st level bad, Garrett Wilson does have 20
28:08plus point per game upside, a guy that we were once drafting at the one-two turn. Then we'll talk about all of the
28:13young players here. Uh when we talk about the strong bets to hit 20 plus points per game, I have Lad Mani up
28:19first. Year three breakout candidate.
28:20Again, we don't want to disrespect those profiles. And this is somebody that had 24.5% target share as a rookie. Could he
28:27ascend in year three to a 28% 29% target share as McDaniel's engine or chess piece of this passing offense? Then we
28:36have Burton and Ibuka. Year two is where it gets really tricky for 20 plus points per game. The only one in our sample was
28:43OBJ after he scored 24 points per game as a rookie. You can go back to Jamar Chase. He only played 12 games as a
28:50secondyear player. So, he didn't qualify for our data, but he still counts. But these are two guys who were top six
28:56point per game wide receivers as rookies. Ibuka and Burton weren't that.
29:00So I would be truly shocked if either hit 20 plus points per game. But what I will say is that now that we're in the
29:05fourth round, similar to the legendary running back video where we talk about things being on a sliding scale, if you can just hit 16 plus points per game in
29:12this range, you're a monster hit. And I think that Ibuka and Burden both have that upside. Like a good comp is Aman
29:17Ross saying Brown in year two was a 16.7 point per game wide receiver as the wide receiver 10. that for Burton or Ibuka
29:25would be a big hit. Burton has the highest raw ceiling in this range where even though his target share is only at
29:3121.7%, he is on an offense that's going to be 10th in points scored, 17th in pass attempt rank. And then there's also
29:38a lot of upside for Burden where he was super efficient and he was a target hog on a small sample. But if that carries
29:43over in any meaningful way to a full route share, he has a lot of upside. And then similar deal for Ibuka, he has a
29:5023% target share already on this list.
29:52He is on an offense that's top 20 in scoring and pass attempts. But we've seen the Buccaneers really cook with Baker Mayfield. This offensive line is
30:00getting healthy. Baker Mayfield's getting healthy. Ibuka is getting healthy. And we already saw a stretch last season where he had 20 plus points
30:06per game through his first five career games. Could he get back to that level and score 20 plus points per game again?
30:12It wouldn't be that shocking. Now, the weaker bets here that I'm definitely not targeting, one is Tedo McMillan. He's a year two bet similar to Ibuka and
30:19Burden. guys that I don't really see as real threats to score 20 plus points per game. Tedo McMillan certainly not a real
30:25threat outside of the top 20 in points out of the top 20 in pass attempts. His median projection is a point lower than
30:32Garrett Wilson. That's the issue for me is that if I'm going to take a high target share bad offense player in the
30:38fourth round, I'm just going to take Garrett Wilson. You're taking McMillan to hope that he's Garrett Wilson at the end of the day. So, I just can't do it.
30:4517.7 is his ceiling projection. I'm not the biggest Tedo McMillan fan. And then we have Terry McLaren. He is at this
30:52point in the eighth year of his career.
30:54His previous high is 15.8 points per game. They bring in Stefan Diggs.
31:00I don't know. I mean, he's somebody who's not even beat 16 plus points per game in the last three years. I don't
31:04see how he gets to 20 plus points per game this season. Now, round five is where we start to squint at some long
31:10shots. Most of these guys probably have 20 plus points per game. Not even close to in their range of outcomes. The only
31:16guy I'll put my stamp on and someone I'm going to be moving up the rankings is DJ Moore. He's still just 29 years old.
31:21He's had a target share of 26% or higher in 2024 and 2023.
31:27This team is going to score points. You see here, second in offensive points rank. Their pass attempt rank of 27th is
31:32something that could be a little bit higher. We are getting reports already that Joe Brady as head coach, you take out Shawn McDermott. Yes, Joe Brady was
31:40calling the plays in the past, but Shawn McDermott was the head coach with his fingerprints on everything. a guy that wanted to play defense, run the ball,
31:46win games that way. Joe Brady, now an offensive-minded coach, gets to create his own game plan. Could he lean into Josh Allen and have him throw for more
31:54pass attempts? Could he get into the top 20 in pass attempts? And could DJ Moore get into 26% of the targets? And then
32:00all of a sudden, you're flirting with the 2020 Stfan Digs year where a new wide receiver gets attached to Josh Allen and absolutely crushes. DJ Moore
32:08is somebody I want to be drafting. Now, the rest of this area, you're going to see that Devonte Adams is at the top of
32:13this list. But here's the deal. Year 13 to hit 20 plus points per game is a really tough sell. Do I think 16 plus is
32:20in the range of outcomes for him and Mike Evans? Sure. But 20 plus, we I looked at the data in terms of year 13
32:27wide receivers and later. Here are your best seasons. 18 points per game from Chris Carter, 16 from Larry Fitz, 16 from Jerry Rice. Jerry Rice was an
32:35ageless wonder producing into his age 40 season and he couldn't even get better than 16 points per game. So I wouldn't
32:41hold my breath on either of those two hitting 20 plus. Jameson Williams is a fun shout but at 18.3% target share next
32:48to Aman Rosane Brown. I just can't see him doing it. I do think that he's a strong pick regardless. Similar deal
32:54with Christian Watson 20% target share just isn't high enough. Roma Dunay year three breakout. I'll respect it. He could maybe do it. I would be shocked.
33:03And then Parker Washington's a true mystery box. He is in a top 10 pass attempt offense. He's heading into year four. His offense should be a
33:10high-scoring offense. I just think that his his next step is like 16 points per game. And again, that's still a great
33:18outcome for all of these players. Now, to wrap things up, here are my final picks in each round to hit 20 plus
33:23points per game. We have Jamar Chase in round one, AJ Brown in round two, Crystal Lave in round three, Garrett Wilson in round four, and DJ Moore in
33:31round five. In terms of overall takeaways in this video, I'll be moving Cid Lamb over Justin Jefferson. We saw they have about the same floor. CDLM has
33:38the higher ceiling. We also have Jaylen Wadd who I'll be moving behind the fun breakout candidates in Lad Mcconi, Amecha Ibuka, and Luther Burden. We also
33:47have Z Flowers and Devonte Smith as priority round three wide receivers with Chris Olive getting vaulted up to that two-3 turn area next to George Pickkins,
33:58Nico Collins, and Malik Neighbors. And then I'm also going to move up DJ Moore right to the top of the tier with Terry
34:04McLaren, Devonte Adams, and Mike Evans as somebody that truly does have a lot of upside this season attached to Josh Allen. All of this is reflected in the
34:11draft guide over on the basementdraftguide.com. You get my top 200. I update it every morning. You have my target rounds, my targets, fades,
34:18sleepers, my notes on every player. You have the ADP edge tool where you can look at my rankings versus ESPN or
34:24Yahoo, wherever you're drafting. You get the flex drag tool to make sure you're filling your wide receiver through the flex plus one or two before the wide
34:30receiver cliff. You can sync the draft guide to sleeper so it crosses off players as you go. All of that and more.
34:36The basement draftguide.com and then of course that is my draft day product if you want to stay with us through the
34:41season to win your league.
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34:55all out down below in the description and the comment section. But I will also say if you enjoyed this video, leave a
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35:17stones like this froze ice cold
