0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Rod and today is going to be our last weekly top 10 lessons
0:08learned video of the season. Now, we'll definitely do a 2025 year in review, but we are going to break down today
0:15everything that stuck out to me in terms of data, usage, trends, stats, the world famous rookie receiver report, the rookie running back carousel, everything
0:24that you need to know from week 16 as we head into the fantasy football championships or the finale of the
0:35toilet bowl. There is a lot still to play for. There is the biggest week of the entire season ahead. As always, if
0:41you enjoy this video, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and our first lesson learned is usually the world famous rookie receiver report, but I
0:50actually think that this is a better first lesson learned. And it's less of a lesson and just more of a heristic, more of a just kind of we're
1:00all in this together. All right? Fantasy football is cruel and I feel your pain.
1:04Right now, it's super popular. You'll see on Twitter, there's some sore losers out there of the fantasy football playoffs are dumb
1:13and there needs to be a certain amount of money allocated to the regular season top scorers and flat payouts. And at the
1:21end of the day, what we do is we play a game. It is fun for this reason that a Cinderella six seed could hit the exact
1:30right number of players to go off in this final week, right? Somebody who maybe slipped into that six seed could have had Chase Burrow or Chase Brown,
1:40Joe Burrow, Ashton Genty. I I outlined it here on the bottom tweet of week 16 top performers coming from players who were negative
1:51advance rate players in the fantasy regular season. and Saquon Barkley had a big week. RJ Harvey had a big week.
1:56Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker, across the board. I imagine six seeds everywhere, five seeds everywhere. There were a lot of upsets in this playoff
2:06round. And the gut reaction is to say, "Well, this is dumb. Remove all varants.
2:12Do a weeks one through 17 total score." And it's like, this is the fun. The fun is being able to tell yourself in week nine
2:20that if I can just scrap together two wins and make it to the fantasy football playoffs, everything is on the table
2:25because everything is on the table. And teams are rewarded for doing well in the regular season. You get a by-week. You
2:31don't get bounced in week 15. If you lose in week 16, that's kind of just the way she goes. At the end of the day,
2:36this is supposed to be fun. It's supposed to be random, just like every sport is, right? In March Madness, teams win all the time uh that aren't supposed
2:44to. Of course, in the NF in the NFL, has it been topheavy with the Chiefs and the Patriots and the Eagles? Sure. But we
2:53still do have those stories of Eli Manning as a wild card winning the Super Bowl. It's just how these things go.
3:00It's sports. It's amazing for that reason. And I like the idea of being able to 10x or 12x a buyin more than
3:08like 5x a buyin and have it super smooth because at that point why not play a league where you just do weeks one
3:15through 17 total points scored and the top six teams double their buyin and everybody leaves happy because that's not fun. There's no stakes. It's just
3:22not in the spirit of what we do here. Uh so I I just kind of wanted to say we're all in this together. Fantasy football
3:28is a cruel and brutal game and it's why we love it so much. It's what makes the lows, it's what makes the highs so high
3:35is that the lows are so low, right? The end of the day, it is a game. It's fun.
3:40It's a way to have camaraderie among family, friends, co-workers, etc. And on the flip side of that, you have people who were regular season studs. So guys
3:50who were really good during the fantasy football regular season in terms of where you picked them and a lot of them
3:56struggled, right? Trey McBride was a tight tight end 20 this week. Josh Allen QB 25. Drake London wide receiver 64.
4:02Ibuka wide receiver 60. St. Brown wide receiver 35. Nico Collins wide receiver 34. Jacobs gave you a dud. Javvante gave you a dud. Rico helped get you to the
4:10playoffs and maybe gave you a dud there as well. When I say we're all in this together, I say this as somebody who in
4:17my own home league, we secured a by-week. You can see team Stewart number two seed. We had a by-week and we we go
4:24up against my boy Tom who had James Cook, Puka Nakua, Matthew Stafford, Chris Olive, and he dropped 160 on me.
4:32At the end of the day, it happens. He was the better team this week. On the other side of the bracket, I don't want
4:39to show the name. It's a little bit dicey that team name, but at the end of the day, the two teams, me and uh my
4:45buddy Conch, we had the by-weeks. We both get bounced in week 16. It's how she goes. A lot of teams who secured by
4:51weeks lost this week and that just is fantasy football. Sometimes it's not like that. Sometimes it is like that. I I imagine there's leagues across the
4:58board where somebody got a by-week and they still won, right? Maybe they had Puka on a super team. It's just the game
5:04we play and that's kind of it. So, that was my first lesson learned. I just wanted to kind of have a bit of a I
5:10don't know what you want to call that, but just a heart-to-he heart between me and you that this is just how it goes.
5:16Um, we are lucky that my home league is my favorite league, my most important league, but outside of this, we play in
5:23enough volume that we won uh a couple of FPC main events. We won in the RT Sports Championship. Uh, we have some dynasty
5:31teams still alive. I will say I got bounced in the semi-finals of my uh Patreon subscriber league. That was that stung as well. But on the flip side, I
5:39got my first ever uh underdog big board uh team into the week 17 finale. I've never gotten an underdog team all the
5:46way through to week 17. This week we have one. Tonight we're actually going to be playing for two live bullets in
5:52week 17. So fantasy football giveth as it taketh is kind of what I'm trying to say. Um but let's move on from
6:03that. Let's now get into the world famous rookie receiver report here sponsored by Underdog. As always, when
6:14you play $5, use promo code Ron. You will get $75 in bonus entries. You can find a link to that in the description
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6:55You can find that in the description and the comment section down below. Now, the rookie receiver report. This is how this
7:01works. We have every rookie receiver with like a hundred or more routes plus other guys. I wanted to talk about uh
7:06we'll talk about him later, but I want to talk about Jade Walker who has ran like 20 routes on the entire year. So,
7:11it's just rookie receivers I want to speak on. They're weeks 14 through 16 route percentage. So, just how much are they involved with the passing game that
7:18is just routes divided by dropbacks.
7:22Anything over 80% is like a starter on that team. Targets per out run, your volume on a per route basis. Anything
7:28over 20% is elite. yards per out run is your efficiency on a per out basis. So, anything over two yards per out run is
7:34pretty strong. First downs per out run, are you moving the chains along with being efficient, right? Are you not only like breaking off big plays, but are you
7:43moving the chains helping your offense?
7:45Anything over 10% is an elite number?
7:47And then your PFF grade, this is how do you look on film to the PFF graders?
7:51Anything over 80 is that elite special number we are looking for. Now, it's week 17, so or yeah, week 16 happened.
7:59We're in week 17 now, so we're not going to go player by player, but we'll just kind of bounce around. Of course, the
8:03first one is a Mechco Ibuka we have to talk about. This one has been rough.
8:08I'll come through hand up. Uh this has been one of the tougher calls for me where we loved Mechco Ibuka. He was a
8:14great hit for the regular season. Even if he tailed off from like weeks, you know, 10 on, he still was so good in the
8:20early season. and you drafted him so late that he gave you so much win equity in those first six weeks that he was
8:26still an overall positive advance rate player through weeks 14. Now the last, you know, last week he wasn't terrible in your lineup. This week he was a big
8:34dud in your lineup and he goes from 89% of the routes to 63% to 50%. Godwin is back in. Jaylen McMillan is back in.
8:41Mike Evans is back in. And I don't know, there's a lot of things you can say about Ibuka. It's tough because somebody
8:46like me who was all over Ibuka is going to be biased and say, "Well, maybe he's hurt. He had a couple injuries early on
8:53that he sort of played through. Are those things still lingering? Are they not?" I have a really hard time believing that Jaylen McMillan is just
9:00now ahead of him on the dep chart. I have to believe that something behind the scenes in terms of an injury is an
9:05issue. Or you believe that the first six weeks were some kind of lsanity run and now you're right. Right. You thought uh
9:12Ibuka him steaming up in price in terms of ADP was way out over their skis. You faded him. You felt bad through the
9:19first six weeks and then you've been laughing through the bank ever since.
9:22It's somewhere in the middle. He's going to be one of the most I want to say polarizing but not really.
9:28He's going to be one of the more interesting conversations in terms of 2026. How people view him in Dynasty, how people view him in reddraft.
9:35It's one of those things where if you liked him before and you liked him through the first six weeks, you're going to like him anyways. But per out
9:42numbers still look fine, right? He leads everybody in this class in terms of targets per out run. 1.85 yards per out
9:48run is right on pace with a guy like Tedo and McMillan. His first down sprout run is really the biggest glaring
9:52weakness. 70.1 PFF grade. The Buccaneers just haven't looked right. They lost to the Panthers in this game as well. I I
9:58think it's I think it's a mixture of that that like Baker's been banged up.
10:01IA has picked up some injuries here and there. The Bucks are just out of sorts right now. I think that them losing Liam
10:06Con has been a bigger deal than previously advertised, but again, through six weeks, I was on top of the world, averaging 20 plus points per
10:12game. Uh, putting up a 30piece on the Seattle Seahawks. So, it's tough. I wish I could give you a concrete explanation as to why this is
10:22happening, but this is kind of not debunking because we still have historical evidence that rookie receivers backload their production. But he is now the guy you want to point at
10:32if you want to say, "Well, this is just a narrative and anybody can backload their production. Uh, look at what just,
10:38you know, Olive just did or DJ Moore just did or insert ex wide receiver who's been hot over the last three or so
10:45weeks." Uh, it's been one of those weird weird years where uh, Ibuka hasn't given us back weighted production. I guess Tedro McMillan has been pretty solid.
10:53We'll talk about him in a second. Luther Burden, right when it looked like it was time for Luther Burden to go off, he
10:57gets hurt. So, we haven't really gotten anything crazy. I guess like you could call Harold Fannon the uh late season rookie stud, but this has been kind of a
11:05dud year for that theory of draft rookie receivers hoping that they backload their production. Uh but we kind of use that across the board and you can kind
11:12of see here and there, right? Like a fan in RJ Harvey's been great. Henderson was great and then he gets banged up last
11:19night. Um but with Tedo McMillan, we can touch on him briefly. 10 targets, six catches, 73 yards, a touchdown. He's probably now the wide receiver one in
11:27this class for all formats, whether it's dynasty 2026 reddraft, uh, week 17 rankings. Tedo McMillan is that guy. Uh, we can also talk about Coloulston
11:36Lovelin disappointing in this game.
11:38Didn't really produce, but this is the first time we've seen him share a field with Cole KT and then also hit an 80%
11:44plus route share. That's a big deal.
11:46Even if he didn't produce, his numbers are still great. I think better days are ahead for Loveland. Terren Ferguson. We now have back-to-back weeks of 70% plus
11:54route share participation. Yes. Uh this was supposed to be the Kobe Parkinson week. Kobe Parkinson of course doesn't perform. Uh Terren Ferguson goes out
12:02there, gives you three catches, 33 yards, and a touchdown. That's respectable for a tight end. If he's now going to be somebody that is a real
12:08piece of this offense moving forward, that's a big deal for Terren Ferguson as a rookie tight end. Uh we can talk about
12:14Pat Bryant. This one sucks. injury week 15. Then he gets bounced early from this game with a concussion, but he did still see a season high eight
12:24targets in this game versus the Jaguars.
12:26That is a big deal for Pat Bryant. We can touch on Kyle Williams, who I've kind of like shrugged off early in the
12:32year of like, yes, he's made some big plays, but his per out numbers are brutal. He's now starting to rebound a
12:37bit where his yards per run is no longer red. uh he's not earning like downtodown target volume or anything, but it's so
12:43spread thin in this offense that just him making big plays, making tough catches. Uh was it against the Bucks that he caught the the pass and just
12:51took it for like a 60-yard touchdown. He showed up in big ways this season, the by-week 7% participation, then 30%. He's
12:59slowly climbing. He's somebody that we're going to care about in 2026 as I'm trying to think of like a decent comp
13:05for Kyle Williams of somebody who didn't really produce in year one, but it wasn't such a zero that it seemed like
13:11he was dead in year two, if that makes sense. He's somebody that is going to be like a fun year 2 breakout candidate.
13:16Probably going to be a little bit more expensive than you'd like if I'm being honest. Uh we can also talk about, and I
13:21bring him up because he caught a really nice touchdown uh thrown by Drake May in that game last night against the Ravens.
13:28Honestly, very similar deal with Isaac Tesla, but I will say his route share is declining, right? 83% 67% 58% per out
13:38numbers are all brutal. But in this game versus Steelers, seven targets, four catches, 52 yards, a touchdown on that final drive too where they were trying
13:45to win. I think it was maybe second and goal like game on the line and they drew up a like Isaac Tesla in the slot down
13:52the seam throw it up for him and he almost came down with it. I think that they really like Isaac Tesla. Then we
13:57have uh Jotty Walker, who we will touch on finally here. Uh he's interesting. I I will say the reason why I wanted to talk about him is
14:06cuz he made the big play. Fourth and four, Caleb Williams versus the Packers.
14:09I got to be honest, when I watched it live, I thought Caleb Williams overthrew it and it just floated perfectly to Jade
14:15uh Walker. The thing is, I knew he was a rookie, but the reason why it was so surprising to me is because I never, you
14:21guys know me, I I have spreadsheets for these rookie receiver classes. And what ends up happening uh just for really any
14:26rookie class is in like March when the combine happens, I take the entire list of combine invites and like some other
14:34fringe guys who might be in the NFL draft and I input them all into spreadsheets and I hold a massive list
14:39until after the draft and I kind of whittle it down based on who got drafted. At no point did Jade Walker
14:45make it into any of my spreadsheets.
14:46This is a guy in his final year. I want to say he was a senior uh at Texas A&M.
14:5229 catches, 345 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. The fact that this kid is on an NFL roster and doing anything uh is massive. Now, I highlight
15:02him more as a good feel-good story than anything else. I don't know that he's going to be ever somebody you're drafting in fantasy football, but it's a
15:10cool oneame story. 26% route share. Uh his numbers are going to be inflated. a really small sample, so don't go crazy
15:16with this targets per sprout run or first downs per out run, but really good game out of him when the Chicago Bears
15:21were against the wall, right? They didn't have Luther Burton, they didn't have Roman Dunay. Back's against the wall in this game and he came up big
15:28clutch moment. I think that that can sometimes stick with a player uh and maybe make them kind of an identity sort
15:35of player of this team. I'm trying to think of like a good comp for that, but I don't know. He he is a weird one. Jade
15:42Walker, we'll see. He's just somebody to monitor. Let's see what he does in week 17 and kind of go from there. But he
15:46he's a fun story. Uh moving on from that, we will get over to the rookie running back carousel. We had a lot of
15:55storylines happen with the running backs here. Uh and first up, you had Ashton Genty, who he's going to be a really
16:02interesting one this off seasonason.
16:04Actually, I think that this game kind of dispels him being an interesting conversation is because at one point people were kind of out on Genty. like
16:11maybe like two weeks ago, people were saying, "Oh, hasn't been that good. He's kind of been a bust." And it's like his
16:16situation has been so so bad. The Raiders have been so awful. The offensive line is awful. The coach is awful. The quarterback is awful. But in
16:23Glimpses, he's looked good. And he's kind of in a similar boat to what Bejon was in 2025. Uh I'll take a small
16:29victory lap that we were in drafting Ashen Genty and he was the uh thumbnail of like a, you know, early round fades
16:35for us, but he feels a lot like 2025 be or no, no, not 2025. I think it was 2023 Bejon. Bejian was a rookie on the
16:42Falcons. He was a firstround pick. He was brutal for fantasy football and then since then he's been amazing. I could see something very similar for Ashton
16:50Genty. I think he's probably going to be like a one-two turn pick again. People are going to have some apprehension towards taking Genty, but I think you
16:56just have to kind of pony up uh and take him and hope that the Raiders have some kind of positive regression this off
17:02seasonason. But he was amazing in this game versus the best defense in the NFL, the Houston Texans. 24 carries, 128 yards, a touchdown. On top of that, he
17:12had one catch for 60 yards and a touchdown, 31.8 PPR points. He was an absolute monster. Uh we can talk about
17:19RJ Harvey as well, who has now hit 20 plus PPR points in three of his last four games since the bye-week. He has
17:25been awesome. His role for fantasy is really fun, too. Seven carries, 50 yards, and a touchdown, five targets, four catches, 71 yards. So, on just
17:3511 touches, he had 20 plus PPR points.
17:37That's amazing. Just basically due to him being explosive, him having this like high receiving ceiling role as well with Shawn Payeyton. RJ Harvey has been
17:45great for anybody who drafted him hoping he was a monster down the stretch. Uh we can also talk about, we're going to kind
17:51of bounce around here. We'll talk about Quinn Shawn Judkins. I will say when I first wrote notes for this, it was a lot
17:55more um bleak than it is right now. Uh, at first I'm going to be honest, I thought he
18:04broke his leg, broke his ankle, and tore his ACL and LCL. That's what kind of the fantasy doctors were saying, and the
18:12tape looked terrible, but it did come out before I clicked record on this video that it seems like there's no knee
18:19damage. It's going to be a uh like broken or fractured tibula or fibula and uh like a broken ankle, which like I
18:27know I'm making that sound like it's not a big deal, but compared to complete knee reconstruction, uh it's not terrible. It's like very
18:35similar to what Cam Scatterab is going through. It's very similar to the Tony Pard uh tightroppe. Then he goes and plays for the Cowboys and is a huge
18:43fantasy bust. It's gonna be one of those things where drafting and trusting Judkins in 2026 is going to be really tough because this is usually an injury
18:50that zaps you of your explosiveness in that first year back, but he's at least young enough, explosive enough that like this isn't a careering event for him.
19:00Uh, and he should be like back to his normal self by 2027, which I know feels like forever from now, but from like a
19:08dynasty lens, from the lens of this guy's career, uh, things aren't awful.
19:12And I will say in his uh relief, we did get some Rocket Sanders, who if you guys remember, I love Rocket
19:18Sanders. He's one of my dynasty darlings. Super unfortunate that he gets waved by the Chargers before the Amari and Hampton and Naji Harris injuries.
19:28So, cuz I think as good as Kamani Vidal has been, I think Raheem Sanders would have been just as good. Uh he's a guy
19:34from Arkansas, transfers to South Carolina. He's one of these uh size, speed, passcatching kind of cheat codes who is a really fun prospect. He ends up
19:45falling in the NFL draft, but he does now get a little bit of opportunity here. We'll see if Dylan Samson's healthy next week, but if he's not,
19:52Raheem Sanders from Ryan Heath here was the lead back once Judkins went down with a 77% backfield carry share, 6.7% target share, two of two backfield
20:02carries inside the 10. So, he is somebody that we'll definitely talk about on tomorrow's waiverwire video.
20:08Uh, we can then talk about Marian Hampton. Kamani Vidal gets banged up in this one. Hampton still kind of ramping up. Only 53% of the snaps, but
20:17plenty of touches, 16 carries, 85 yards, one touchdown rushing, some receiving work as well in that game versus the Cowboys. Then you have Trevon Henderson.
20:27Only 18% of the snaps. He gets a concussion in this game. absolutely brutal because this was supposed to be his time, right? You draft Trevan
20:34Henderson for the rookie upside down the stretch. He then delivered on that upside down the stretch and now in the semi-finals he gets hurt.
20:43Go back to the first lesson learned.
20:44It's kind of just the way she goes. It's a brutal game we played and now he has a concussion. So even if you kind of
20:50withtood this dud from Henderson, there's no guarantee he plays next week. And in fact, it's probably unlikely he plays next week. A lot of these concussions
20:58have been at least a oneweek minimum injury. There's no week there's no reason to rush him back. The Patriots kind of I guess they're playing for the
21:05one seat at this point, but they also definitely have Super Bowl aspirations and don't feel the need to rush people back from injury. So, we'll see how that
21:11goes. Raandre Stevenson potentially a league winner here in week 17 if Henderson can't go. Uh Bill Crosky Merritt gets relegated back to the bench
21:21with Chris Rodriguez back. Chris Rodriguez, 55% Snap Share, 60% rush attempt share.
21:27This is from the fantasylife.com utilization report. 13.9 PBR points for Rodriguez. Bill can be dropped and it's tough like a day three back who doesn't
21:37seize a real role. It gets tough for those guys long term. So, we'll see what Bill is in 2026. I wrote down a quick
21:44note, Olly Gordon is firmly behind Jaylen Wright. Jaylen Wright has 10 touches in this game to Ollie Gordon's one touch. Uh, and then the final one is
21:50that Woody Marks did not suit up in this game against the Raiders. So, Jaward Jordan ended up being the clear lead back. We
21:58had him on the rankers on the Patreon as the lead back here, but it's not like he was amazing. I think he had like 12 PPR
22:03points from Ryan Heath. Uh, Jaward Jordan. Uh, UDF, I think, secondyear uh like day three pick out of Louisville.
22:1268% backfield carry share, 14.3% target share, uh, 14.8 weighted opportunities, RB15. essentially the Marks role. We'll see if Woody Marks is good to go next
22:22week. Now, moving on from that, we're going to touch on some messy backfields.
22:26We have the uh Carolina backfield. After in like week 13, it looked like, oh man, heading into the by-week, does Hubard
22:33reclaim this role? Uh it was not the case. After hitting 58% of the snaps in week 13, he's now gone back down to 43%
22:40and 41% in back-to-back weeks. The Panthers haven't been scoring enough points or like running the ball effectively enough for even Dow to be
22:48all that effective here, but it's worth mentioning Dow is still the preferred lead back. Uh we can talk about Javvante Williams. This one's a a tricky one
22:57where weeks 13- 14 usage is fine. Week 15, he comes into the game banged up.
23:02Usage is fine. He still gets 15 PPR points. And then this week, all reports indicated that he was healthy and good
23:08to go.
23:11and then he had a 57% snapshare and was a huge dub this week. So there either the the injuries ling lingering or they
23:18like the uh backup Davis and maybe there's kind of a situation brewing here where you have Javvante in a contract year.
23:28Maybe they kind of understand that Javvante isn't in their long-term view of things and they're kind of like easing back his workload and seeing what
23:35else they have. They like the guy Lupkey, the uh fullback. I will say Malik Davis, I just pulled him up. Eight
23:40carries, 23 yards. Not like he was great uh in this game either. I wish I I I don't really have a reason for that
23:46Javvante usage in this game despite, you know, just bringing it up here to say we're observing what is happening here.
23:53Then we can talk about the Giants backfield after it felt like Tyrone Tracy ran away with this in week 15, right? 76% of the snaps, 65% of the rush
24:02attempts, big game. He comes back down to earth with a 6535 split, downgrading him back to kind of like high-end RB3
24:10territory last week. He was ranked in most places as a low-end RB2. Then we have Pacheco. This one's tough, right?
24:17Like uh it did come out before I recorded that Gardner Mchu apparently didn't tear his ACL. Seems like he's still going to be out. Uh I can't even
24:24pronounce the third string quarterback's name correctly. It's a bad offense. But it is funny. I I maybe it's just kind of
24:31the nature of what has happened to this offense now that like things are looking rough that it's just like all right PCO
24:37is our main back. But he did have a 70% plus snap share which if Mahomes was healthy right now the Bacho guys out
24:45there would be jumping for joy at him being like a league winner down the stretch here. So just something to note.
24:50PCO startable next week but uh nothing crazy. We can talk about uh Aaron Jones real quick. Jordan Mason got hurt in
24:56this game. Aaron Jones had 21 carries, three targets. He would be a firm RB2 if Mason can't go. Uh the Cardinal split
25:02was closer than we thought for whatever reason. I I could have touched on him for the uh in the rookie uh running back
25:09report or the rookie running back carousel, but we thought Michael Carter without Bam Knight without Trey Benson would be the lead back or not lead back
25:16like a bellcow you could start confidently. Only 54% of the snaps not a great utilization score. Amari de Marcado was out there and then Cory Ker
25:25was out there who I believe was a rookie running back. I'm trying to remember if he is UDFA or not, but he is out of
25:33Cincinnati. Some film guys like him, but I don't really have much more than that.
25:38I don't think that he's going to really be a guy like he kind of I don't know.
25:41There's like a billion of these guys, right? Like a Keonte Ingram or Eno Benjamin who have been on the Cardinals before. Yeah, he was a LSU worthy
25:48recruit his freshman year. Then he played for Cincinnati for three years.
25:51was super productive. But that's kind of it. Again, I think some film guys like Cory Ker, but I I would be shocked if
25:58anything is really there past that. Now, moving off of Messi backfields, I have a takeaway labeled Chris Olive. Don't
26:08look. Now, uh he looks really good. Uh we talked about Chris in the offseason.
26:12People hated when I brought him up or when I drafted him on stream saying like there's no ceiling. And I understand,
26:16right? You're looking at Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shuck and you're trying to think to yourself, how does this work out? It's just going to be mostly PPR
26:23scam stuff, but without any touchdowns.
26:26I will admit he's ran really hot on touchdowns this year. Eight touchdowns for Crystal Lave, tied for six most among wide receivers is crazy for a
26:34player in a bad offense, but that's kind of what happens. Touchdowns are random.
26:38We talk about this all the time. And if you can just secure the yards and the reception, sure, touchdowns are much
26:44more likely on the good offenses, right, than they are on the Saints offense. But they're still pretty random and it was
26:51very much priced in where Chris Lava, you were drafting him as like a wide receiver three, wide receiver four and now he is the wide receiver eight in
26:57points per game and honestly one of the bigger wins of the season who's kind of been a little bit quiet as a clear win,
27:02but he did just have a monster 30 plus PPR point game. He is tied for third in targets among 99 wide receivers with 200
27:09plus routes run. He's fourth in expected points per game. That's volume. He is fifth in receptions, tied for sixth in touchdowns, seventh in receiving yards,
27:18eighth in points per game, eighth in targets per out run, 25th in yards per run, and 29th in first downs per out
27:23run. So the yardage and first down efficiency is a little bit lower, but I think in the context of this offense,
27:28it's not really an OE issue. It's more a Saints issue, but you kind of got lucky that the touchdowns didn't reflect that.
27:35You know what I hit the touchdowns. In a perfect world, his touchdowns would be down there in the 25th area, probably
27:42with like three or four, but this was the uh multiverse where Chris Ave ran hot with touchdowns and he became a
27:48great pick. And that's kind of all that needs to happen sometimes is you just get lucky. That is fantasy football. Uh
27:53then our sixth takeaway in this same game is Taesm Hill should have been so much more obvious. And I'm kicking myself for not thinking of Taesm Hill
28:00this week. We of course lose Deon Neil.
28:03And why I wasn't on Taesm Hill is because we lose Kamara. Kendrick Miller is then the clear guy. Then we lose
28:08Kendrick Miller. And then that's when I actually brought up on the Waverwire video. I'm like maybe this is time for Taesm Hill. Instead Deon Neil becomes
28:14like a fine replacement level waiverwire ad. He goes down and then I'm thinking okay well this is like Kell Moore. He
28:21doesn't use Taesm Hill. Maybe he'll just use the Estimate the same way or use Evan Hull. Instead we get Taesm Hill uh
28:27fully unleashed. Also, you had some narrative there where this was probably Taesm Hill's last home game with the Saints, and it seems like they just
28:34wanted to feed him. He had uh one passing touchdown to Chris Hav, 38 yards. He had 12 carries for 42 yards.
28:41He had four catches, 36 yards receiving.
28:43This is from PFF here. You can see as well the running back split. Estimate was the lead guy with 45 snaps to Evan
28:48Holt, 16 snaps, but it just didn't matter because Taesm Hill was essentially the lead back. I think Taesm Hill is going to be a big waiverwire ad
28:56heading into week 17.
28:58We'll see if this sticks. It's always so tough to predict the Taesm Hill stuff, but I do think that week 16 was a little
29:04more obvious than all of us thought. Uh our seventh takeaway, just some returns here across the league. Uh the Chargers had Quenton Johnston back in the mix.
29:13Quentyn Johnson had a monster game. He had a one-handed catch. Like Quenton Johnson hot early, cooled off, but still one of the stories of the season of my
29:21god. Uh when we talk about some of the guys in the rookie receiver report who are underperforming, sometimes you can just end up looking like Quentyn Johnson
29:28and be an absolute monster. Uh 24 routes run on 33 total dropback. So he wasn't a full full-time player, but five targets,
29:36four catches, 104 yards, a touchdown.
29:37Lad Manki gets in the end zone. Keenan Allen kind of stuck at that 17 route like unk roll is how I would put it. Uh
29:44Gadson's completely fizzled out since then. Again, Kamani Vidal gets banged up. We can talk about Drake London. He actually had a full-time role. He runs
29:5330 routes on 36 drop backs behind only Darnell Mooney. He has eight targets tied for the team lead with Pitts and he
30:00just didn't come through. Uh sometimes that happens especially with wide receivers. Eight targets, three catches, 27 yards. First game off an injury. Uh
30:07just tough. Then we can talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. He was a part-time player in this game. Only 20 routes on
30:1433 drop backs. He had a He had like a weird he like jumped for a ball that he didn't have to jump for in the end zone and
30:21then he dropped it. I don't know. Marvin Harrison Jr. He just doesn't look right.
30:23He had a spot there where he was looking like he was on the right track coming off injury just not great. Uh
30:29Michael Wilson kind of gets Michael Wilson gets a touchdown in this game but down to three targets wasn't great and kind of the Kobe Verset magic ran out a
30:36little bit this week. Uh T. Higgins we'll touch on our last return comes back. I assume that he wasn't going to
30:42play. I I added him Sunday morning, but I don't know. He's had two concussions this year. The Bengals aren't playing for anything. You'd think that they
30:50would just be a little more cautious instead. Three catches, 53 yards, a touchdown. He ran 29 routes on 36 dropbacks. Steve Higgins was very much
30:56in the mix. And then our eighth takeaway is in that same game, Chase Brown is a playoff hero. Uh the splits don't
31:03matter. This is somebody we were a little bit concerned about. When Sam Perron came back, his role did diminish in this game. 61% snap share, 16
31:10touches. That's not a great role. But because Joe Burrow is healthy, unlike the early part of the season when Chase Brown was getting that usage, that role,
31:18and not scoring, now with Joe Burrow healthy, this team scoring points, the Dolphins defense being bad, he turned 16 touches into 32.9 PPR points and was a
31:28big league winner or high advance rate player in week 16 is what I would call it. Uh, and then we have, if you want to
31:35talk about uh Quinn Eris, his debut in that game, we can kind of tack on.
31:40didn't look amazing, but he did complete 20 of 30 passes, 260 passing yards, not terrible. The Bengals defense isn't great. Uh he did throw two picks, but at
31:50the end of the day, at least he wasn't offense crippling, right? Achan still had 18 PPR points. Wadd had nine targets
31:57and kind of projects like a high floor, low ceiling flex play next week. But again, it's not like the end of the
32:04world there. Uh my ninth takeaway, Liam Cohen, thank you. It's just a thank you to Liam Cohen. Uh things were a
32:12little rough early where they kind of relied on their run game and their defense and they had a lot of procedural
32:17penalties as this offense is super complex and like Travis Hunter and a lot of these players were struggling to pick it up. But since their week eight
32:24bye-week, they have been eighth in EPA per play, sixth in dropback EPA per play. Kind of fully unlocking Trevor Lawrence here, who has been amazing down
32:32the stretch of the season. They just scored 34 points on the Broncos. Beat them handedly. the Broncos being a team that is fighting for the one seed in the
32:40AFC. Now, I will touch on these receivers as well. I know a lot of people are looking at the Brian Thomas
32:44Jr. uh box score and being panicked, but I do think that it's pretty fair that he was kind of a sacrificial X, something
32:52that Matt Harmon has talked about where he's on the perimeter. He's facing coverage from Pat Certain. He's never going to be the focal point of the
32:59offense in this game plan. Jacobe Myers gets eight targets, four catches, 45 yards. Parker Washington, huge game. Six catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown.
33:08Brettton Strange even had a decent game.
33:10Five catches, 39 yards, and a touchdown.
33:12It's tough because I don't think many people started these players, right? The Jaguars going against the Broncos. The Broncos defense is so good and the
33:19Jaguars offense just did not care. Now, my last takeaway from week 16 as we look forward to week 17 is the Packers wide
33:27receiver musical chairs, right? There was all this talk, was Christian Watson going to suit up? up with Jayen Reed ramp up his uh routes. Then we get
33:34Jordan Love gets hurt, Malik Willis gets hurt. Who knows who's QB1 next week, but I did want to show the uh snaps and
33:41routes run here. As always, these screenshots are from PFF. Nathan Yonkey's article is a huge help if you're out there looking for this data
33:49for all of your players, teams, etc. Uh Jaden Reed runs the most routes at 27, but only three targets. Weird quarterback play thing. Romeo Doms ends
33:59up scoring the most points here, scoring a touchdown with Malik Willis. Christian Watson back in the fold.
34:05And then of course Josh Jacobs was a guy that nobody knew if he was going to suit up. Then he suits up and it's one of
34:11those things where well he's been playing banged up the last few weeks and he's still been great. And then this week it all came out. Uh Emanuel Wilson
34:19outnaps him, out carries him and Josh Jacobs busts in your running back spot.
34:26Uh, it might have cost some people out there their fantasy playoff hopes, but again, it's the game we play. It's how she
34:34goes. Um, I hope all of you out there have won your week 16 matchup, but the reality is that, you know, only 50% of
34:43you guys did. Uh, so if you didn't, I'm sorry. Maybe you're playing for something in the third place game. Uh, but regardless, I love you all. Thank
34:50you for watching. I will be back tomorrow for the Waverwire video. And as always, I will see you guys in the next
34:57one.
35:10Stones like this froze ice cold ice.
