0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and this is the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the entire year. And if you clicked
0:08on this video, you are cramming for your fantasy draft. So, today I am going to give you a crash course on how to win
0:14your fantasy football league in 15 minutes or less. If you're new, subscribe, leave a like. Let's not waste any time and let's go position by
0:22position talking strategy. First up, we have running back strategy. Everybody knows that high-scoring running backs run fantasy football. And as a
0:31community, we are really good at finding these running backs. Last year, the top 10 running backs and points per game were drafted inside of the top three
0:38rounds. The 20 plus point per game scorers at the top were all drafted inside of the first two rounds. Meaning, if you want one of the high-end guys at
0:46the position, you have to draft them early. But we want to be shooting for that 20 plus point per game upside as
0:53that is how you get the biggest impact on your team. Which leads us to the idea of don't draft an early round RB without
1:00legendary upside. A saying coined by Pat Karine. And what it means is that when you draft that running back early, you
1:06need to shoot for this year's Christian McAffrey. Last year he took your win rate of 1 divided by 12 8.3% all the way
1:13up to 22.2% 2% pretty much tripling your chance to win your league. On the flip side though, if you drafted Saquon
1:20Barkley at the 104, he took your 8.3% and cut it in half down to 3.6%.
1:27So, there are very wide ranges when it comes to taking running back early. So, we need to be swinging for upside. The
1:34way that you should be approaching your draft is it is an arms race to take these running backs in the first two
1:40rounds from Jamir Gibbs through Ashton Genty. These guys need to get wiped off the board and it's why the three and the
1:46four spot at the top of the draft are so difficult. The 103 and the 104. You take Jamar Chase, you take Puka Nakua and by
1:52the time your pick comes back around, the running backs are wiped all the way through Ashton Genty. Now, if you miss
1:58out on running back or you feel light at running back, I do still like Jeremiah Love and Bree Hall in the third round. I
2:04would call these the cornerstones of my early round running back strategy. Now, after the first three rounds, we get to the RB dead zone. And the RB dead zone
2:15is back this season from Ryan Heath here, showing that running backs are going inside the top 40 picks and inside the top 60 picks at the highest rate
2:23they have gone since 2022, pushing up the RB18, the RB19, the RB20, and making it so you have to pay up for these RB2s
2:31in the dead zone and pass on the league winning wide receivers. This can be shown here when we look at the point per
2:37game projections mapped out by ADP. Once you get past the first 37 picks here, you can see we get to what is called the
2:46RB dead zone inside of this yellow square where the wide receivers start to really clear the running backs in terms of point per game projections. And that
2:54can be visualized when we take a look at the projections mapped out by player. 10 of the top 12 players by projected
3:02points per game here are wide receivers.
3:04Six of the bottom eight are running backs. The wide receivers in this round four to six range, the RB dead zone
3:09average 12.9 points per game versus the running backs at 12. We want to get our running backs in early. And then when
3:15the dead zone hits, we want wide receivers in this range or quarterbacks and tight ends. Now, yes, it's important to know that wide receivers not only
3:23outproject the running backs in the RB dead zone, but all the way through what I'm calling the flex zone. This is when
3:27you're starting to fill out your team with options to put in your flex. But it's important to note that even though
3:32the wide receivers outproject the running backs, but they have much higher upside when you're taking swings on guys in ambiguous backfields like Travis ETN
3:40last year and Javvante Williams last year. It's actually around 5 to six where even though the running back league winner rates are a little bit
3:46higher than the wide receivers. The wide receivers bust at a much lower rate and they fall all the way down to 3.2% once
3:52you get to round seven, the league winner rate at running back stays roughly the same. So we want to get our
3:57wide receivers in here. Now, based on how many running backs you took in the early rounds opens up how many of the
4:02running backs you can take shots on in this round 7 to9 area. Now, of course, I want to give a quick disclaimer to stay
4:08water and stay flexible. I say to avoid running backs in the RB dead zone, but if you only get one running back through
4:13three rounds and you're in a two wide receiver, one flex league, you might feel compelled to take a stab at a
4:18running back in the dead zone. You absolutely can. only a Sith deals in absolutes. And all of these are rough guidelines to try to stay within, but
4:25you can definitely color outside of the lines a bit as you draft. It is kind of more of an art than a science. Now, when
4:32we talk about wide receiver draft strategy, we start with winning the flex. And what that means is understand that the flex is how you win your
4:40league. When whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the flex position. you hear
4:47all the time, oh, he's a low-end RB2 or flex referring to guys who aren't any good as flex players is a kind of short
4:53hand. And what I'm trying to say here is we look at these projections and you might see Bucky Irving at RB20 as a
4:59low-end RB2/flex play. That's just simply not true. His 11.7 points per game is a genuinely worse flex player than your Terry Mccclure and Luther Bird
5:09and even all the way down to Carnell Tate projecting for 12.4 points per game. Bucky Irving is not a good flex
5:15play. He is a RB2 in the dead zone. So, we want to be setting ourselves up to put wide receivers in the flex. And
5:22that's of course shown here where you can see all the way through this flex zone, which is when you're drafting wide
5:27receivers and then you're getting some wide receivers on your bench to be flex options. They all outproject the running backs. Of course, again, round seven to
5:34nine, we want to take a shot or two on these running backs with high upside.
5:37But by and large, we want to draft enough receivers in this zone to make sure that our flex is ready to roll
5:43until we get to this wide receiver cliff part where this is Jaylen Coker, the last receiver to project for 10 plus
5:48points per game. He essentially falls off a cliff. And then this is when we want to be drafting other people's RB
5:53handcuffs. I get that question all the time. Don't handcuff your own running back. You don't want to be setting yourself up for a scenario where your
5:59running back gets hurt. You want to set yourself up so that when somebody else's running back gets hurt, your team becomes a super team and a juggernaut in
6:06your league. So then the question becomes, how do we make sure we have wide receivers in our flex spot? And the
6:10way we do this is we draft wide receivers who the flex plus one or two before the wide receiver cliff. Of
6:15course, Jaylen Coker around wide receiver 50 is your wide receiver cliff this season. I actually have a tool in my draft guide, the
6:23basementdraftguide.com where you can see here if you have a team that is wide receiver, wide receiver, flex flex. So wide receivers
6:29to the flex is two wide receivers, two flex, that's four. Plus one or two before the wide receiver cliff is five
6:34to six wide receivers before the cliff.
6:37Why we want plus one and two is one for by weeks, another for injuries. But that's loose, right? Jamar Chase Nico
6:43Collins is strong enough that I I probably want to lean more towards the five, which is plus one versus six. But
6:49if you go running back, running back and let's say your wide receiver one is a mecha Ibuka. That's a scenario where I
6:54want wide receivers who the flex plus two before the wide receiver Cliff. This flex check tool in the draft guide keeps
7:00track. So here this is about four to five rounds of a draft already done. You can see I have Chase, Nico Collins,
7:05Ibuka. That is three of my five to six goal before the wide receiver cliff. And it tracks how many wide receivers are
7:12left before the cliff. Here I know we're in the middle rounds. I have 24 more wide receivers off the board until I
7:17need to reach my quota. And it's just a good tracker to make sure you are ready to roll with a strong flex. Now, you
7:24might find yourself in a spot where you just whiff and you don't get enough wide receivers through the flex and you feel
7:30weak at wide receiver after the wide receiver cliff happens. What I would say is then we are spamming rookie wide receivers. I way too often see people
7:37draft guys like Jaylen Naylor or Jawan Jennings at the end of your draft. If you're a weak receiver, it's got to be
7:42the rookies for upside. You see here every year we get rookie producers down the stretch. Whether that was Elijah Moore as a rookie, Odo Beckham as a
7:50rookie, even guys who weren't amazing pros like Tank Dell or Judu Smith Schustster, Brandon Iayuk, Jaylen Wadd, Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, all of these
7:59guys kind of came out of nowhere as late round smashes. Here are all of my rookie wide receivers ranked outside of that
8:07wide receiver cliff. So, I like Denzel Boston, Jacobe Lane, Jordan Tyson if you have an IR spot. Cyrus Allen, Omar Cooper, Malachi Fields. All of these
8:15guys are draftable to stash on your bench and then you watch the rookie receiver report where every Monday I break down how the rookies are doing and
8:21we stash these league winners on our bench. Now, I will say too, don't be afraid to take a wide receiver early. If
8:26you don't like the running backs at the top or the running backs get drafted, you can take a wide receiver inside the
8:32first three rounds and really lock in a stud. Last year, even though the entire season was run by running backs, McCaffrey was a beast. Bejon was a
8:40beast, the two highest owned players on fantasy football championship rosters on ESPN, were Puka Nakua and JSN, the wide receiver one and the wide receiver two
8:50overall, drafted inside of the first three rounds last year. So, it's never a bad idea to lock in a wide receiver if
8:56you don't like the running backs on the board. Which then takes us to quarterback and tight end strategy.
9:01Based on how many running backs you take early goes towards how aggressive you can be at quarterback and tight end. If
9:08you go two running backs early and then you go elite quarterback and elite tight end, that's now four rounds that you're
9:14going away from wide receiver, a position we need to fill through the flex plus one or two before the wide receiver cliff. So in that scenario, you
9:20can't really afford to do the two running backs up top and the elite quarterback and the elite tight end. It kind of all comes down to how many
9:26running backs you draft early. allows you to take the luxury detour on an elite quarterback or an elite tight end.
9:32Right? If you go wide receiver, you come back around, you take a Brock Bowowers, you still don't like the running backs
9:36on the board, then you can lock in a Josh Allen, and then all of a sudden you're elite at quarterback, tight end,
9:40wide receiver, and you can kind of make up ground at running back later. Or you lock in a running back, you take a wide
9:46receiver, you come back around to round three, maybe you take a Trey McBride because you have a little bit more balance. But I would really go against
9:53double running back up top, elite tight end, and elite quarterback. Now, this is league winner and bust rate data for all
10:00the positions, but you can compare with tight ends and quarterbacks. When it comes to tight end, round three and four, the league winner rate there is
10:06amazing with a very low bust rate. This year, I'm targeting Coloulston Lovel and Tyler Warren there. But I also think that Trey McBride in round three is a
10:15fine bet to make. And then same thing with Brock Bowers. And then you can also play late round tight end. You can play
10:20the waiver wire. You can get Dallas, Jawan Johnson, Dolon Concade, Isaiah Likely are all guys that I like. Then we have quarterback Josh Allen. Five years
10:29running has been a strong pick in fantasy football. You can never go wrong with Josh Allen in round three or later.
10:34But I will say the round three and four league winner rate at quarterback is high. But the bust rate is higher than
10:39even a round one to two running back. So I'm fading quarterbacks. Honestly, if not Josh Allen, I'm waiting until round seven plus and going Justin Herbert,
10:48Brock Pury. If I don't get one of those two, then I'm just punting and going Kyler Murray or Malik Willis in the late
10:54late rounds of your draft. And what I'll say is do not draft two quarterbacks or two tight ends unless if you fully punt
11:02the position. Meaning if I take Justin Herbert, that's it. If I take Josh Allen, that's it. It's not until we get
11:08to like the Kyler Murray, Malik Willis side of things that I'll take two.
11:12Similar deal with tight end. Pretty much if I take a quarterback or tight end inside of the first 10 rounds, I'm not
11:18taking a second one. Rarely ever. You can play the waiver wire. Your leaguemates are going to drop their second quarterback or their second tight
11:25end. It is not a priority. And then I'll also say know your league, right? Of course, know how much of the starting
11:32lineup your quarterbacks and tight ends are taking up. If it's a shallow two wide receiver, one flex league, they are going to take up more of the starting
11:39lineup, making them more valuable. If it's a crazy three wide receiver, three flex league, the quarterbacks and tight ends are very small percentage of that
11:45starting lineup. If it's a six-point passing touchdown, you push up the pocket passer, superflex, push up the quarterbacks, tight end premium, push up
11:51the tight ends. All of that you should know. You should know your leaguemates tendencies. Is this a running back hungry league? Are they casual? Do they
11:58draft quarterbacks early? Know all that ahead of time. And then also know what site you're drafting on. This is again from the basement draft guide where you
12:06can check out my ranking. This is Garrett Wilson where I am six spots ahead of consensus, 12 spots ahead of sleeper, but ESPN actually has him three
12:13spots higher than I do. So, understand and look around the ADP edge tool to see who are the values and the fades on
12:20whatever draft platform you are on. Now, let's talk kicker and defense. This is brief for me. I'm not crazy about kicker
12:27and defense. I would take them with your last two picks. I give you permission to take Brandon Aubrey anywhere in round 13
12:34or later. if not, these are my favorite week one streamers for defense and for kicker. And then we'll also talk about
12:40the best draft spots to pick from. We did this video a while back going through how I would rank each draft
12:47position. You can screenshot this and use it as you draw straws or do whatever to find your draft pick, but this is
12:53roughly how I feel. So, let's recap for a second here. Up top, draft the best player available through three rounds.
13:00Don't force a certain strategy. Draft your guys through three rounds and then adjust your strategy based off of that.
13:06Did you draft two to three running backs? Then stop drafting them and go fill out your wide receiver, flex, quarterback, and tight end position. Did
13:13you only take zero to one running backs through three rounds? Then you can take stabs at running back in the dead zone
13:18or even take a few stabs in that round 7 to9 sweet spot at running back. Running back in general, draft one to two
13:26through three rounds, maybe even three, hunting those 20 plus point per game scores. avoid the dead zone and then based on how many running backs you take
13:32early will dictate how many running backs you can take later. At wide receiver, we want wide receivers who the flex plus one or two before the wide
13:39receiver cliff. And don't be afraid to draft a wide receiver early if you don't like the running backs available. Then with quarterback and tight end,
13:46depending on how many running backs you drafted early dictates how aggressive you can be at the position. And then of course understand that the shallower
13:53your lineup is, the more impact your quarterback and tight end have. At quarterback, we want Josh Allen or a round seven plus quarterback. At tight
14:01end, really, anything can work. Just again, understand that you only have the luxury to take an elite quarterback or an elite tight end if you are lighter at
14:09running back early because we want to make sure that our flex is strong.
14:14Now, here is an example team I drafted out of the 11 spot in a three wide receiver, one flex full PPR
14:19league where you can see we take one running back early. We go Jefferson, Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. We take an elite tight end because we did have
14:26the luxury given we went a little bit lighter at running back. We took a stab in the dead zone with Jadarian Price. We
14:32fill receivers through the flex plus one with DK Mechaf and Jaden Reed. And then we start hammering out Tony Pard, Chris
14:38Rodriguez. We take our quarterback and this gives us a very well-rounded team that I like. This is what the starting lineup looks like. I am happy with it.
14:45That was a real $350 draft that we draft on stream on this channel, which is another pointer I could give. We stream
14:53every night. Make sure you watch them.
14:55We draft real money fantasy football teams on here. I answer questions and that's a great way to prep for your draft. Also, you can practice over on
15:02Underdog. Use promo code Ron and when you play $5, you get $50 on the site to mess around with real money drafts on
15:09their site. It's best so you draft it.
15:11Don't have to worry about it. But there's enough money on the line that the room is sharp and everybody is drafting as if they care. The mock
15:18drafts on a lot of these sites are outdated with bots or they're just plain bad. everyone's autodrafting. Underdog is a great way to practice. And then I'd
15:26also say use my rankings. Use the ADP edge tool. Use the flex check tool.
15:30Everything you need is on the basementdraftguide.com.
15:34Of course, in season, we need to set our lineup. We need to do waiverwire. All of that is on the Patreon.
15:39patreon.com/roonstewart where you can get my weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, my waiverwire article, start sit streams every Sunday.
15:47And if you're on the Patreon, you get the draft guide half off. And then of course, subscribe to the channel. We are
15:51going to be doing videos from now through week one. And then once week one happens, we'll be talking about the rookie receiver report to stay up to
15:58date with those upside rookies late.
16:00We'll do waiverwire videos. We'll do trade target videos. All of that and more. Subscribe, leave a like, good luck in your draft, and I will see you in the
16:08next one.
16:21Leave me as [music and singing] stones like this froze.
16:27I like I'm frozen.
