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This Stat Reveals the RBs About to Break Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 43 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 27, 2026

Published

Mon, July 27, 2026

16

Player insights

16

Players mentioned

Topics

Bijan RobinsonBucky IrvingChristian McCaffreyDavid JohnsonDe'Von AchaneJames WhiteJustin FieldsKeaton MitchellKenneth GainwellKyren WilliamsMalik WillisRhamondre StevensonRJ HarveySaquon Barkley

Player analysis

Player insights

16

Bijan Robinson

PositiveRole18:04

Robinson received Christian McAffrey-style usage last year, including split-out alignments and vertical route running; late-season example shows he was deployed on key downs (fourth-and-three) running speed-out routes to create mismatches, demonstrating expanded receiving role and slot-receiver usage similar to McAffrey's elite receiving back role.

Bucky Irving

PositiveUsage1:42

Tampa Bay RB who has maintained significant negative air yards in recent years while still posting positive receiving efficiency. This is attributed to Baker Mayfield's effective progression reads and the Buccaneers' efficient screen game, demonstrating that negative air yards can be overcome with strong quarterback play and scheme.

Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection11:48

McAffrey is the rare exception to the trend of declining PPR-heavy RB archetypes in the modern NFL. He had over 900 receiving yards last year, which is elite fantasy production comparable to top-tier wide receiver seasons. This demonstrates the elite upside available when a running back combines high target volume with strong air yards. McAffrey was the primary receiving back for the 49ers with this high-volume, high-air-yards role, establishing a benchmark for elite RB receiving value and demonstrating the fantasy ceiling when a pass-catching RB gets both volume and depth-of-target opportunity.

David Johnson

PositiveUsage1:02

Johnson's 2015 mega season is cited as a foundational example of why RB air yards matter in fantasy football; his big year was built on the back of exceptional air yards production, making it one of the most ridiculous RB air yards seasons ever. His 2016 season holds the all-time RB air yards record with 492 yards in a single season, demonstrating the elite vertical receiving role Johnson executed.

De'Von Achane

NegativeProjection35:01

Ben Gretch initially projected De'Von Achane negatively due to expected loss of receiving work under new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick, but revised upward after realizing Slowick was Miami's pass-game coordinator last year. However, concerns remain about pass volume given Malik Willis's limited starting experience (six career starts, never more than 23 pass attempts per game) and the Shanahan-tree offense's run-heavy approach with motion and under-center play, which may suppress overall pass attempts despite Achane's receiving upside.

James White

PositiveProjection13:52

White's 2018 season is cited as another elite historical model for pass-catching RBs. He had 278 air yards with 17.3 PPR points per game, which would rank as a top-6 RB finish. Like Cohen, White exemplifies the fantasy ceiling when a running back combines high target volume with meaningful downfield air yards.

Justin Fields

PositiveProjection38:08

Ben Gretch identifies Justin Fields as an outlier in scramble and sack rate, similar to Malik Willis. Fields's high rate of converting drop backs into scrambles or sacks rather than pass attempts reduces pass volume and target efficiency, making him a cautionary comparison for low-volume QB situations.

Keaton Mitchell

PositiveBreakout28:28

Keaton Mitchell's athleticism profile rivals Devon Achane's despite size difference; he hit 20+ mph seven times on only 59 carries last season, potentially the most explosive back in the NFL by tested metrics. At 179 pounds (vs. Achane's 188), the BMI difference is not massive. Unlike Achane, Mitchell's collegiate yards per attempt improved with volume at East Carolina, suggesting he can handle increased workload. After tearing his ACL and being behind Derrick Henry, if he gets significant volume in Mike McDaniel's offense—which emphasizes passing game usage and space—Ben Gretch believes he'll handle more than people realize. Gretch projects Mitchell for approximately 40 targets in the Chargers offense, which would carve out meaningful PPR league upside; the offense ran 13.0% running back target share last year (up from 11.6% prior year), and with the Chargers expected to increase that to around 20%, Mitchell can accumulate significant receiving volume.

Kenneth Gainwell

PositiveRole14:19

Gainwell exemplifies the high-targets, low-air-yards role that limits fantasy upside. Ben Gretch notes that if Gainwell had achieved a 2.5 yard average depth of target instead of his actual air yards, he would have been a massive fantasy impact last year, highlighting how air yards unlock value in pass-catching RBs. The implication is that Gainwell's receiving role lacks the downfield volume needed to translate target volume into elite fantasy production.

Kyren Williams

PositiveUsage17:21

Williams ranked third in receiving yards among Rams running backs despite the team's limited passing volume to the position, and he posted a meaningfully positive air yards per target (aDOT), indicating the Rams are using him on deeper routes and creating receiving opportunities despite their run-heavy, under-center scheme. This demonstrates that even in a run-first offense, Williams is being deployed on vertical routes with meaningful downfield opportunity.

Malik Willis

NegativeProjection36:44

Ben Gretch projects Malik Willis's Dolphins team for the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Willis has made six career starts and never thrown more than 23 passes in a game; his career scramble and sack rate combined exceed 25% of drop backs. Gretch expects the team to be bottom-five in total pass volume, as Willis converts the fewest called passes into actual pass attempts among starting QBs, and the Shanahan-tree offense prioritizes run-heavy play under center. Even with a second-hardest schedule forcing trailing situations, the team is committed to running even when behind.

Rhamondre Stevenson

PositiveUsage9:05

Stevenson exemplifies running backs with vertical route capability and explosive play potential. Ben Gretch notes that while you wouldn't project Stevenson for a 40-yard reception on a weekly basis in DFS, understanding offenses that deploy running backs on vertical routes and the explosive upside from occasional deep targets is valuable for running back selection, as hitting on a 40-yard play in the pass game is massive regardless of role (rotational or workhorse). Stevenson posted 345 receiving yards on just 37 targets in 2024, demonstrating a meaningfully positive air yards per target (aDOT) that boosted his receiving production well above his target volume; he continued this receiving efficiency into the postseason, suggesting a sustainable role expansion.

RJ Harvey

PositiveUsage7:25

Caught a 30+ yard TD on a wheel route, demonstrating explosive receiving upside when leaked out of the backfield; wheel routes create linebacker coverage mismatches where Harvey can get wide open. Also had a 35-yard touchdown reception against the Texans with 7 air yards on that play, illustrating the challenge of parsing individual explosive vertical plays versus average depth of target metrics when evaluating running back receiving upside.

Saquon Barkley

NegativeProjection40:25

Ben Gretch uses Saquon Barkley as a cautionary example of rushing efficiency collapse despite improved offensive context. Barkley posted 5.7 yards per carry in 2024 and was drafted in the first round in 2025 based on that efficiency, but his rushing efficiency cratered in 2025 despite playing in a much better Eagles offense. The efficiency decline occurred partly due to an offensive coordinator change in Philadelphia, illustrating the risk that elite rushing efficiency cannot be relied upon to carry a running back's fantasy value year-over-year.

Tarik Cohen

PositiveProjection13:11

Cohen's 2018 season is highlighted as an elite historical model for high-air-yards RBs. He had 3.7 yards average depth of target with 320+ air yards and scored 14.6 PPR points per game, which would have been RB1 caliber last year. This archetype—high targets plus downfield volume—demonstrates the fantasy ceiling when a pass-catching RB gets both volume and air yards.

Tua Tagovailoa

PositiveProjection37:55

Ben Gretch uses Tua Tagovailoa as the opposite end of the spectrum from Malik Willis; Tagovailoa doesn't scramble or take sacks, gets the ball out efficiently, and converts a high percentage of called passes into actual pass attempts. This efficiency generates strong target volume for fantasy purposes, contrasting sharply with low-volume QB situations.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,012

0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and fantasy football cheat codes are a rare thing to find in 2026.

0:09We are going back to the basics today to talk about running back area. A stat that I think is really important in the

0:16modern landscape of the NFL. And today we have on to talk through his article, why you should care more about RB airs

0:24at yards per gretch on Twitter. His stealing signals substack is of course we can find the article. He is talking every single week over on Roto Viz with

0:32the Stealing Bananas podcast. How is it going today? Ben Gretch, >> I'm doing good. Thanks for having me.

0:39I'm first time in the basement. I'm excited to be here.

0:42>> Yeah, first time, but uh hopefully not the last time. Ben Gretch is somebody that, you know, I've been following for

0:47a long time. Kind of the origin of this basement is that I drove around delivering pizzas, listening to fantasy football podcast. Of course, ship

0:56chasing uh was one of them. But with Ben Gretch today, we're going to talk about running back area, which to me is like

1:02such a fun throwback on fantasy football. I first got into this around 2015. That was the David Johnson huge mega season. Uh and then also the

1:13RBYards aspect of it is David Johnson's big year was on the back of that. It's like one of the more ridiculous RB

1:19Airyard seasons ever. and it is that I remember back in the day I think it was Josh Herms that would do the unrealized

1:26airyard article something we were once obsessed with but we've now kind of gotten away from it. So I'm curious why is this something you're so passionate

1:33about uh and how can this help us in 2026?

1:38>> Yeah. I just I I think it's a really fun topic. I mean, the the first section of that article that you referenced why you

1:45should care more about running back area yards is like my little subsection header was it's difficult to classify in research. I think one of the big reasons

1:52that it goes under the radar is a lot of running backs have an A dot around zero.

1:57Now, first of all, as we start talking about yards and a dot, like there's going to be different sources. I I tend

2:02to use the PFF uh number, so that's what you're going to hear from me more. Um there's different uh charting services

2:09that are going to have a slightly different area yards numbers and those things, but they're going to be in the general same general vicinity. Running

2:15backs tend to have an AOT around zero because they get a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage. A dot average

2:19depth of target is relative to the line of scrimmage. And running backs are going to line up five or seven yards

2:24deep in a lot of formations, right? So they're like a lot of times flaring out, catching a pass three, four yards behind

2:29the line of scrimmage. Sometimes more. I mean, sometimes like an individual throw will have like eight yards uh eight negative yards uh of air yards because

2:37of the way that the quarterback kind of got pushed back in the pocket or whatever and then threw like a late

2:42checkdown. Uh one of the guys we talk about Ashton Genty had a few of those in one of one of his games this year uh or

2:49last year. But um when you so running backs have this A dot typically around zero or a lot of times negative

2:57and and they can have uh an accumulation of significant negative air yards which again I don't think we talk about enough

3:03with running back efficiency either because then everything has to be ball in hand. Everything has to be yak. If your A dot as a running back is negative

3:10one and you have like on average one yard the line of scrimmage and you have 50 targets or whatever you you're

3:16starting with negative 50 receiving yards. you have to have so much yak that you add 50 I mean that's I guess not

3:24exactly right cuz that's that's 50 uh negative areas on the targets but on for the the number of receptions let's say

3:30it's 50 receptions if it had a negative one a dot on those catches you have to make up that yard just to back to just

3:36to get back to the line of scrimmage you can have some negative receiving plays Genty had a game I believe it was in in

3:42week two where he had like five targets three catches for one yard or something like that it was uh absurd.

3:50Yeah. Three three catches, four targets, three catches for one yard. In week two, we had negative - 27 total air yards.

3:56So, that's kind of the the the the bad side of it for running backs that are only getting checkdowns or a lot of

4:02those are screens. Some teams can do the negative area thing effectively. The Bucks are a team that do it well. Both

4:07Buck Irving and Rashad White the last couple years have had significant negative A dots, but also positive receiving efficiency. I think Baker

4:14Mayfield gets through his progressions and gets the ball to them effectively, more effectively than some quarterbacks.

4:20There's going to be different quarterbacks that do this well uh and better than others. And then I think they have an effective screen game. And

4:24you're going to see that you're going to have lower A dots on screen plays because the running back's going to catch that behind the line of scrimmage.

4:29The flip side of it is sometimes we do get the running back coming out of the back field and getting vertical, right?

4:34Sometimes they'll split out, they'll motion out or they'll just line up outside and then okay, now they're lining up on the line of scrimmage. So

4:40they're very likely to get a positive airyard route. Um Chris McCaffrey, great example of that. We see him go out and

4:45run, you know, option routes against slot quarterbacks all the time and he looks like, you know, prime West Welker when he does it. It's it's an incredible

4:52thing. The David Johnson season, that's what he was doing so much. And he had the most air yards in in my database,

4:59that 2016 Johnson season, he winds up with 492 air yards. That was the most for any running back in a season. It's it's not

5:10it's not as many as receivers will go over a thousand and and then some every year. It's not as many as we're used to

5:16hearing, but that's that's a ton. It's the most for any running back in any season until McAffrey this past year had

5:21327 still meaningfully less than Johnson, you know, like 50% uh or Johnson was maybe 50% more than than McAffy's, you

5:31know, 327. And so anyway, you get these different roles. You get these running backs that are actually running vertically. There's different ways to do

5:36it. We have like Devon Chan in Miami last year was running a lot of angle routes and he's getting some throws in

5:41behind the the line of scrimmage that are a few yards downfield, but he's getting a lot of volume and he's accumulating. He's getting a lot of

5:47throws at the line of scrimmage where he's splitting out wide and he's able to catch closer to the line of scrimmage

5:53instead of well behind the line of scrimmage. He did some like out and ups and things, but that's the other route.

5:58It's sort of the out and up, the wheel route that gets him down the sideline.

6:01Raandre Stevenson ran that a couple times last year. He was second in the league with 155 airs. That's kind of the

6:06profile you'd think of as the guy getting vertical, but he translated that into a massive yards per target figure of over nine, which is really, really

6:14huge for a running back cuz he hit on a few of these downfield throws. And that gets to sort of what the value is of it.

6:21We know we're in an NFL where teams are trying to get rid of explosives. Uh, defenses are trying to take away

6:28explosives. There's been a lot of great quotes about that over the last few years. I was just working on some Dolphin stuff yesterday. their new

6:34coach, Jeff Hafley. He was early in the offseason talking about the offensive coordinator he's looking for. He said, "As a defensive guy, I want an offensive

6:41coordinator that's going to hunt explosives because everything I do in every single situation on defense is to eliminate explosives." We've had several

6:50quotes like that. Robert Salah had some quotes a couple years ago in the great uh the athletic podcast series uh the

6:57play callers where he was talking about wanting to take a team's jabs and not their haymaker because you don't want to

7:02get hit on these explosives. That's the whole cover two shell and the pre and uh post snap rotations in the secondary.

7:10And so teams are trying to find explosives in new ways. That's what Halfley is alluding to. He wants his offense to be hunting them because he as

7:17a defender, defensive coach is trying to get rid of all of them. Running back area yards are one of the like

7:25underrated ways you can go get explosives. Like you have the the Stevenson plays I was talking about. RJ Harvey had like a 30 something yard TD

7:32catch, you know, and if you leak them out on a on a wheel route, you got to block a little longer. You got to

7:37protect. He's got to get out of the back field all the way up the sideline. A lot of times he gets a linebacker out there

7:42or he gets forgotten about. He gets wide open. And if you protect some of the times these throws wind up on the on the

7:47back end at the catch point being kind of easy. You know, sometimes you get the wider uh the running back splitting out

7:53wide. This is what the Patriots were doing. They were splitting out Reandre wide and he'd just stand at the line of

7:57scrimmage and they're trying to pull a defender out there. Well, eventually teams would put a linebacker out there.

8:01Then the Patriots would counter by just sending him on a vertical route on the outside. I mean, he's not even running a

8:05wheel. He's just running a go as a w like an outside wide receiver.

8:09That's one of maybe the last matchup advantages you can get to in a league that's going increasingly to these nickel and dime defenses getting more

8:17DBs on the field. You can get an athletic running back against a linebacker. It's kind of that dream of what tight ends were, you know, 10, 15

8:25years ago when like Jimmy Graham and Gronk were coming up and it was like, "Oh, these guys are too athletic for

8:29safeties or too athletic for linebackers, too big for safeties."

8:34teams have figured out how to how to manage tight ends a little bit more over the years. Now we're at this point where

8:39it's like maybe it's the running back in the past game and especially as we go to these heavy tight end formations and get

8:45more big bodies on the field. The running back is one of the better athletes of the five eligible receivers.

8:50You can get him out vertically into these routes. It's a really interesting opportunity to try to get those explosive plays. But it is something

8:56that's very irregular as I'm describing.

8:59You can't be throwing vertically to running backs every single time. It's a it's a little bit of a misdirection play. It's something that might pop up.

9:05So for fantasy, we're not talking about it on a weekly basis in DFS that like, oh, I'm projecting Rashad, sorry, Raandre Stevenson to run,

9:14you know, to get a 40-yard reception this week. We're not projecting that.

9:17But understanding the offenses that might pull that lever, the the running backs that might have this in their bag to have it a couple of times a year to

9:25add some explosives.

9:27So much of running back production, as we know, is volume based. It's rushes.

9:30It's accumulation. If you can hit on a 40 yard play in the pass game, I mean, that's pretty massive regardless of what

9:37type of a player you are, whether you're a rotational player, whether you're a workhorse, it's adding that to other stuff. And we are seeing a little bit of

9:43an uptick of it, I think, as we head into those heavy formations and those things. So, it's a it's a tough thing to

9:50talk about because of how challenging it is to discuss the the difference between like a negative one to a positive one a

9:59dot and and how some of these vertical routes are are canceled out by negative airs plays and the player may I

10:08I use an example for RJ Harvey in my column where he had the long touchdown against the Texans. It was like a I

10:15can't remember exactly 35 yard pass downfield or something and he had seven air yards that game. It's like how do you even talk about that? He had this

10:21fun downfield vertical roll. He had 35 airs on one play but the rest of the game he had negative 28. It cancels it

10:28out. We can't even like filter our data to uh you know the way you would want to do it is is look at a distribution and

10:35find individual plays that are you know vertical plays. But um it's a fascinating topic because it is difficult to parse the the average depth

10:46of the different targets versus the individual plays and the explosive play upside. Um and then the ways that catching a ball beyond the line of

10:54scrimmage uh versus behind it impacts receiving efficiency, impacts how much the player needs to go get in terms of yak and all of that stuff. Um so yeah, a

11:03lot of layers there with running back area yards. It's not something that you hear talked about a ton, but I do think

11:08it may be one of the new counter punches in the league because of the heavy tight end personnel and all those things. And

11:14that becomes pretty exciting and something to to to really actually consider as you're making your running back selections.

11:20>> Yeah, I like that a lot in in a world where there's not really a ton of cheat codes anymore or like a there's actually

11:28a lot of new stats. It's just a matter of like small sample and what actually matters. But I think this is one of the

11:32ones, like I said, like going back to the basics where it it does make sense.

11:35We used to hunt the mismatch with tight ends. If that's now gone, we're hunting the mismatch with running backs. You kind of think through that. You can

11:41motion out or Aandre. If there's a linebacker there, okay, leave him there.

11:45If there's a DB, then you bring them back in. Maybe you just run the ball against a light box and things start to

11:50get uh really fun that way. Now, I do just want to kind of back up and zoom out for a second of like air yards are

11:56calculated a dot times targets. ADA average depth of target in a world now where I wanted to bring up kind of now

12:03the historical context here is we now have uh Rich Rebar did a good analysis on kind of the year-over-year trends over on Sharp Football Analysis.

12:12And back in 2017 or no, this is back in Yeah, back in 2017, the running back position averaged 14.5 targets per game.

12:22That has now all the way come down to 11 per game. So just like the NFL as a whole on top of passing volume in

12:28general kind of coming down is also taking targets away from the running back. Uh we still have the few rare cases where I think you mentioned in the

12:35article uh we maybe had like the most amount of running backs hit 85 or more targets this year for the first time in

12:40a while. So we're getting like a subsect of running backs where it's like these guys are earning the volume. Uh but

12:45teams are almost more conscious of where these targets are going. It's why outside of McAffrey, we're not really getting that Austin Eckler style just

12:55like PPR machine style running backs, but it's also how we can counteract that that if the reception totals aren't as high as they used to be or targets

13:03aren't, if we can get these running backs down field, that's where you really unlock things. Something I wanted to bring up that I think is a decent uh

13:10kind of like outline of how this works is kind of game last year, 73 receptions, but only 486 receiving yards. like he was honestly in a world

13:18where we're not getting those PPR dump off running backs, he was that attached to Aaron Rogers, the lowest eight out in

13:24the league, the fastest time to throw.

13:25So, it made sense. But you compare that to uh I was waiting for you to bring it up cuz I thought I did a little bit of

13:31research before this today uh after McAffrey is the Tariq Cohen year. I was so shocked by this. He had a 3.7 yard a

13:38dot uh in 2018. So, he had he's the only other running back. It's McAffrey. It's David Johnson. Tariq Cohen with 320 plus

13:46air yards in a given season. He scores 14.6 PPR points per game. He would have been an RB1 last year. And then James

13:52White is similar where he also is somebody had 278 error yards with 17.3 points per game. That'd be like a top

13:59six number. So these are guys that had the Kenneth Gainwell role but downfield and then all of a sudden guys that

14:05aren't even sniffing like 800, 900 rushing yards can all of a sudden be massive impacts in fantasy. I'm not sure that there's an obvious, okay, this is

14:14going to be this year's James White or Tariq Cohen, but it just outlines kind of, you know, Kenneth Ael was cool last

14:18year, but if Kenneth Dav had like a 2.5 yard a dot, uh he would have mattered in a monstrous way uh last year.

14:27>> Yeah. No, it's a great point. And I mean, both those um player seasons, the Cohen and White seasons were from 2018.

14:34You mentioned the 85 plus target thing from last year. Uh there were six guys that had 85 plus targets last year. in

14:41some of these offenses that were really seeming to feature the running back a little bit more. And part of my article,

14:46I mean, I'm not necessarily predicting a huge upswing in in running back passing because a lot of what we're seeing from

14:53a macro lens is a is a shift away from the shotgun. And so the the shotgun formation. So you have the the six

15:01players who had 85 plus targets last year. That was the first time since 2019 like the Cohen and White type of passing

15:07down back. They played in pretty shotgun heavy offenses where they would come in on on these passdowns and be weapons that it's a little we're kind of moving

15:15away from that now. There's a lot of teams talking about the under center, the Shanahan tree, marrying the run to the pass, right? So part of the reason

15:21we're not seeing as much um volume to the running backs. you mentioned the great uh Rich Reebar article and and the

15:28trends dipping there is when I mean number one teams are running more like last year last year the the pass rate

15:34over expected like leaguewide the expected pass rate needs to shift or something because there was only I think it's eight teams that were in the

15:41positive and 24 that were in the negative we're we're moving toward more running and then we're running to set up play action pass and and then those

15:48plays inherently are going to be a little bit more like shot plays more vertical it's less of the shotgun spread offense that we saw

15:56grow through the 2010s and then now already kind of fade here in the 2020s as uh we continue to progress in the in

16:05the never- ending evolution of of NFL offensive shifts and those things. But um the Cohen and White seasons that you're talking about, they're great

16:13examples of what can come when you have volume with an A dot, which Christian McAffrey was the main guy last year and

16:19he had over 900 receiving yards. I mean, that's that's incredible. Let's you'll take that for your wide receivers in most cases. Uh obviously and so there's

16:29this element of volume plus air yards uh or or plus a dot, right? Like a a high number of targets and receptions plus a

16:37dot is going to is going to add up to air yards is going to add up to real yards. Both Cohen and White those years

16:42had over 700 receiving yards. That kind of a role is going to be really really valuable. I don't know that we're going

16:49to see like as much volume as those guys got from those types of players in the modern NFL. And yet at the same time, I

16:58do think we're trending back toward some real positive A dots and some different things that can spike like in 2025. I

17:05mentioned the Raandre Stevenson season with the really big um air yards. He only has 37 targets, but he ends up going for 345 receiving yards. It's a

17:15pretty meaningful boost to his role. He continued some of that into the postseason as well. Had some good receiving in the postseason. Another guy

17:21who's kind of uh a random one that I don't know that people would realize cuz the the Rams don't throw to their backs

17:26a whole bunch, but Kairen Williams was third in yards and he ended up having a pretty positive a dot despite the Rams

17:35being a team that again because they do a lot under center because of how they like marry the run of the pass and some

17:39of the things they do a lot of the short passing to puka the way they use the tight ends they don't actually throw to

17:43the running backs much at all. But Shawn McVey is kind of always at the forefront of the different little innovations and

17:49those things. We did see Ken Williams have a meaningful positive A dot. We also saw Blake Horm in his limited receiving work have a meaningfully

17:57positive A dot and add a couple of air yards. That's a team that was doing some of this stuff, pushing the ball

18:04downfield uh to their running backs and using the mismatch stuff. You saw some other team like Bjon Robinson got it last year where he was getting the

18:11Christian McAffrey usage. He was splitting out. He was going out and running vertical routes. I remember late in the season there was like a fourth

18:17and three and their fourth and three play was to get Bejian out on the line of scrimmage running a straight out

18:22route using his quickness and space to catch like a 5-yard completion on the sideline and it worked. And like he's getting the right matchup for a

18:29one-on-one quick out like a speed out that is the kind of thing that Christian McAffrey runs in the San Francisco offense. If you have really athletic

18:37players like that, really great short area quickness, using them as basically a slot receiver because that's where the matchup is best on a key down like that

18:46could be a a lever to pull in the modern NFL where defenses are doing a lot more things to challenge modern offenses. So,

18:56um it's interesting to see that evolution and I think that may be something that continues to grow going into next year was part of the thesis of

19:03my of my article.

19:05Yeah, you bring up the uh I know something that Ryan Heath has harped on is this like Mc Shanahan uh tree of

19:11McVey Shanahan. I looked at now this isn't perfect. You might have a better number of like team RB targets, but I

19:18was looking at the highest air yards on targets to players aligned in the back field. So essentially that's actually sort of taking away your air yards from

19:26a running back in the slot. just the running back out of the back field in terms of team leaders and air yards. It

19:31is the 49ers with 195 and then the Rams with 120. Uh which seems like it checks out in terms of those two being the top

19:39dogs. Now, I do want to shift this towards the uh player take part of this video and we'll start to go kind of

19:45situation by situation. I am curious, are you now into the Rams running backs?

19:50Are we into Kairen? Because it seems like and I think me and Gretch are pretty aligned on a lot of our player

19:55takes. I get flamed as well for uh I'm usually agist. I usually am wide receiver heavy. Uh Kairen's been a guy

20:03that I haven't liked very much, but I find myself here even in like underdog, you know, like we're talking half PPR.

20:09He follows me in like the early fourth and you find yourself like in these zero RB builds where it's like if Kyron's my

20:15RB1, like I'm probably fine with that, right? Like a three, four turn Kirn. Uh are you finding yourself talked into Kairen this year? uh how are you playing

20:23that backfield just sort of based on like can this receiving role grow because he was a receiving back at Notre Dame and then it's just like really

20:30hasn't been uh part of his mo since coming into the NFL.

20:35>> Yeah. I mean I I think I the way I've been I I'm not super into either of them, but I I the way I've been looking

20:41at it is the way that you just described it. If I was going to take them take one of them, it would be Kairen in a build

20:48similar to that where I didn't get a lot of running backs in the first couple of round. Like I wasn't already starting a

20:52running backheavy build because I mean this guy does have 250 plus PPR points three straight years. Um I don't have the half PPR number in front of me, but

21:00like he's a he's a consistently productive player. Blake Korn posted a pretty putrid 2.6 yards per target and 0.31 yards per run even though he was

21:08getting some air yards last year. I don't The big difference between them is Kiren ran over three times as many routes. Like Kairen is the pass down

21:15player. They're going to split the rush work, but this part of it is interesting for Kairen to have at least the

21:23stability of a solid overall role. I think he's going to give up some rushes for sure um from some of those best

21:30years. I don't know that he'll have another 250 point PPR season this year.

21:34Uh, but I do think if you were going to go grab him in a in a build like that, especially in baseball where you're

21:40like, yeah, I mean, there's there's role here, the the area's part of it is a positive. The reason I'm I'm less

21:46optimistic or I I don't necessarily like either of them is even though that we're seeing the areas in this offense, they

21:53haven't thrown more than 76 passes to the running back position in five straight years. I think it's even longer, but I got five on on the sheet

22:00that I'm looking at now. Um, Karen gets most of those, but it's not an offense that throws to the backs a lot as I

22:07mentioned. And so, even though he will add the air yards element, I would like to think that there was more pure target

22:14volume above and beyond that in a given offense. When I look at the Rams uh, and their usage of area, I'm looking at it

22:21more from the trends setter thing. That stat you just gave that has the Niners and the Rams as the top two. I mean,

22:26those are the teams in a copycat league that everyone's trying to copycat, as you mentioned. And so if they're doing it, then other teams are going to try

22:33it. But I also wanted to be in an offense where we're doing more traditional throwing to the backs, right? Like [clears throat] one of the

22:41teams we'll talk about is the Chargers and I'm very into the Mike McDaniel offense. He's been using the quick passing game for years now. Some of that

22:50is because of Tua's skill set, but they threw to Han a ton. Even before Han, they threw to the running backs quite a

22:56lot. He's had consistent uh high running back target share since he became a head coach. Four years running in Miami. Now

23:03he's the OC obviously for the Chargers.

23:06I do think they're going to throw to the backs a lot. He's talked about working with Justin Herbert on his footwork to

23:10work on the quick passing game. And so if they're using some of the stuff that he's done with the quick hits and and

23:16some of the just like run game extension stuff and they mix in the air yards, now you have sort of the base of volume plus

23:24the explosive play element. And that's really where I think we get into the exciting stuff in fantasy when you can when you can marry volume with

23:32efficiency. That's what we're always kind of talking about. When you ask me about the Rams, my concern on that is I

23:36think there's the potential for some explosive plays, but I don't know if we're going to be able to marry target volume with efficiency to the degree

23:43that I want to marry it. We may have some efficiency bumps there, but um the volume in the offense to the to the

23:49running back. I don't know that I expect it to to increase dramatically because I do think they're going to use the tight

23:55ends a ton, etc. If it did, then I'll be I'll feel like I was wrong on Kairen.

24:02>> Yeah, that he's just I I'll be honest, like when I say I'm in on Kairen, it means I have 7.3%. So, still

24:09undermarket, but that's probably a careerhigh uh for me in drafting basketball teams. But I think that that's a good segue to the Chargers. You

24:18kind of did a a follow-up article, I'll call it, uh don't listen to the boomers about Kian Mitchell. And I think the

24:25biggest feather in your cap for this is somebody who I know to love a lot of fun in Jacob Sanderson has been so anti- key

24:32and Mitchell this entire time. I know you guys are dropping a show uh the long view uh that I'm excited for. I love

24:38Jacob's a friend of this channel. We do a a main event every summer, me, him, and Liam, and it gets very uh

24:43contentious. I'm I'm the mediator. Like, I'm just getting talked over and walked over the entire time. Uh but in someone that's pretty hard-headed in Jacob, uh

24:52it seems like you got him to sort of change his mind on Kian Mitchell. Uh I'm curious what you're so into because his

24:58career ad numbers are low. Uh but I think that you know, you're saying that it kind of flows through the coach and

25:04you're just excited about McDaniel.

25:07Well, I mean, that's that's not entirely true. I'm excited about Mitchell as well. Um, I think, you know, part of part of my point was the profile is, I

25:13think, pretty underrated. He was like I I drew the comparison back to Devon Achan because I keep hearing that Keem Mitchell's not Devon Achan. And the

25:21reason you'd compare these two is Mike McDaniel obviously had Han last year.

25:25Um, so it does again flow through the coaches. You were saying they're very fast guys. They're undersized, etc. And everyone's like, "Yeah, but Keem

25:30Mitchell's not HN." HN was a third round pick. Han's been very productive at the NFL level. Keat Mitchell was a UDFA. has

25:36not been productive at the NFL level.

25:37And yet the Chargers knew that and they gave him 5 million fully guaranteed, which is a lot for a running back. I went in the

25:44article, I went through some of the other, you know, full guarantees to different running backs this offseason.

25:49It's a it's a chunk. I mean, it was up there. It's a lot more than you'd expect for a UDFA that's only gotten 140

25:54touches and can't stay healthy. If you're if you're really out on Katon Mitchell and all those things, you'd have to help me understand why the

26:00Chargers felt he was worth 5 million fully guaranteed because they know those things. to me that that contract is I the way that he gets framed is as if the

26:08Ravens wanted to throw him away and they, you know, they didn't want to keep him. They had no interest in him,

26:13whatever. Like I've heard it discussed multiple times like he was just free to take. I'm reading it like the Chargers wanted this dude. Mike McDaniel

26:20reportedly put up wanted posters and went out and got him. Um, but yeah, one of the big like limbs I'm out on in my

26:27projections is I'm projecting him for a pretty meaningful receiving role. And a lot of that does build off Han and a lot

26:34of it builds off the profile, the smaller speedster. I think Mike McDaniel's superpower as a play designer is getting speed into space. It's not

26:41just Han. It was Raheem Oster before him and it was at the P in the passing game, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd, right? It's

26:48always been about speed for Mike McDaniel and getting them into space, finding ways. He did this with the receivers. It was always about getting

26:54them into that deep middle. Um I think our our buddy Pat Karine calls it the the splash zone, right? like getting him

27:01into that area where they could catch and run and and use that speed horizontally, vertically, whichever direction, right? Um, and he's been

27:09great at that with Han in the passing game, but Han's had a lot of u, you know, solid running back areas, a lot of

27:16receiving value over the last couple of years because a lot of it has been behind the line of scrimmage as well.

27:20Different like a very a wide variety of receiving for him. The big thing that I'm expecting is that he is going to

27:27bring that over. But in terms of Mitchell, like one of the things about HN, if you go back to the college

27:31profiles, was that he was a low-key workhorse for his size. Mitchell was arguably a bigger workhorse. I mean, smaller school and in the American

27:37Conference at East Carolina, but he had uh about a hundred more carries. They both played three years. Mitchell's actually a little bit younger. He played

27:45his whole rookie year at age 21. Um didn't turn 22 until early the next season. Han turned 22 like in that

27:53rookie year. Another young three-year early to players, young players, right?

27:56Um, one of the things that happens a lot of times when we do these comps is the guy's like a clear tier or two lower in

28:03the like key ways that that player differentiates. Devon differentiates through speed and explosiveness.

28:09Their 40 times are almost identical.

28:11Their 10 yard split almost identical.

28:12Hans were a little bit better, but Mitchell is actually the one who's had the clock times that have been better.

28:17He hit 20 plus miles per hour last year.

28:19A league leading seven dimes on only 59 carries.

28:23No other back on more volume had more than six times of hitting 20 plus.

28:28Jonathan Taylor, Jir Gibbs were second.

28:31Han was down at five instances of hitting 20 plus miles per hour. He's the one who led the league in instances of

28:38hitting 15 plus miles per hour. All those uh numbers from NFL Pro. So Mitchell kind of has an argument to be

28:45and if you go look at this tested stuff, his 40-yard dash was a little bit it was a half second slower than Han. We're

28:52talking 432, 437. We're talking a 10 yard split 149, 1150, like very, very identical. But he actually had meaningfully better jumps. He had a 5 in

29:02higher vert, a broad that was more than a foot longer. He had elite jumps, which we, you know, kind of translate to

29:09explosion. Hans weren't as good. Han obviously elite explosive player. I mean, we know all of that. My argument is just that Mitchell is not like some

29:18knockoff Han. There's argument to be made that on an athleticism standpoint, he's right there with Achan. If not, arguably based on that that stat I gave

29:27about the 20 plus miles per hour to have it seven times on only 59 carries, he's above. Arguably, he is the most

29:33explosive back in the NFL based on tested numbers from last season in a very limited sample. And if he's that player and Mike McDaniel put up wanted

29:41signs and they gave him 5 million despite being a UDFA and some injuries at the NFL level and only 140 touches

29:48and the Ravens wanting to get rid of him and all these things you hear about why Keem Mitchell can't do it and and size

29:53comes up. He's 179 pounds or he would clocked in at 179 at the combine. H was 188. Hn was 58 and change. Katon

30:02Mitchell was under 5'8, about a half foot difference there, which helps to explain the nine pound difference.

30:10Mitchell's not like massively smaller in BMI or things like that. Um, so again, the the idea that he's like some knockoff Achan, I think, is um I mean,

30:21it's fair in some perspectives.

30:22Obviously, Achan's been very productive at the NFL level and Keaton Mitchell has not. And the draft capital stuff I referenced matters as well. But Mitchell

30:28is not what happens so often in these comparisons, a way worse version of the other player that they're being compared to. And so then in terms of why was Mike

30:36McDaniel putting up wanted signs, why did they pay him5 million? What was the plan there? It seems to me that a big

30:43part of the plan would be to use him in the passing game to use him in space to get him not running behind the lineman

30:50because he's 179 pounds. I mean, they will do some outside zone with him. He's going to get carries. He's been a very

30:55efficient runner. One of the things I love about his uh collegiate profile is as he took on more volume in his final

31:01season at East Carolina, he also had a careerhigh in yards per attempt. For Han, it was different. When he took on

31:07more volume in his final season, his yards per attempt came down quite significantly and he actually missed two games. Now again, Han's been able to

31:13handle the work at the NFL level. I'm just trying to drive home that people will and and Han may just be a clear

31:19outlier at his size, but people will now that they've seen it from Han, they will um I think overstate the degree to which

31:28it was certain that that was what he could be. And I'm trying to point out that if you go just look at their

31:32profiles coming out a few years back, you would think that Keaton Mitchell had the potential to be somewhat similar to at the next level. Now, he's not been

31:40able to do that. right as he was coming on as a rookie and he was starting to come on. He tore his ACL and then he's

31:44been behind probably the greatest workhorse of all time in Derrick Henry the last two years. I mean I I can as a

31:49as a big Ke Mitchell stand over here, I can make some, you know, caveats. I can throw some things out, but um if he does

31:57get an opportunity to get big volume, I actually think he's going to be able to handle more than people realize. So,

32:01there's some stuff there that in the Keat Mitchell profile, I think is there, but as you talked about with the coach,

32:07it really does come to this idea of, okay, here's a guy who was using his running backs in the past game a ton. He

32:12worked with Justin Herbert on the footwork and all those elements. I do think they want to do the short area passing stuff. I think that's going to

32:19be great for Omari and Hampton, too. And if you don't agree with me on Keaton Mitchell, I think you should be drafting

32:23Omari and Hampton. I think this is an offense that is going to use those two guys effectively. I think ultimately they're not going to find a lot of work

32:29for Kamani Videll other than like maybe long down and distance and like late game stuff. I mean, I I really just

32:35don't think I think he's a good running back, but I don't think he's anywhere near what they view a player they spent

32:40a first round pick on and the player they put all these wanted posters up and gave way more guaranteed money than a

32:44UDFA who can't stay healthy and is undersized probably should have warranted. Um, I I think they just see those two guys as such dynamic players

32:52that they're going to do everything they can to maximize the number of snaps that one of Omar and Hampton or Keem Mitchell

32:58is on the field. I don't know that Mitchell is going to be on a ton alongside Omar and Hampton. I do think

33:04they're going to use him, man. I do think that was a big part of the contract and bringing him in. And I

33:08think the way that they will use him in a way that maybe doesn't necessarily hurt Hampton too much is that the uh

33:16running back target share in this offense was 11.6% uh sorry 13.0% last year, 11.6% the year prior.

33:25I believe in Miami. It's been 22% plus each of the past uh three seasons. I believe we're going to see that go way

33:31up around 20% which is not like a high number. And so it' be meaningfully higher than last year. It would allow

33:37Hampton to be in a similar target per per range game, but also carve out maybe 40 targets for Keaton Mitchell, which I

33:45think is about where I wound up in my projections. And if if Keen Mitchell's in a 40 target role in addition to the

33:50efficiency upside that I was talking about and the explosiveness and all of these things, I mean, there's a base to that in especially in PPR leagues.

33:58there's a base to that production and then you start talking about the explosives and I think he's gonna have explosives on in the ground game but

34:03this is also a quarter a coordinator a coach that is going to use the the running back in the pass game to create

34:09the explosives as well which we've seen with Han. So uh I think there's a lot to like in this Chargers offense in terms

34:16of that next iteration in this in this running back area yards uh conversation.

34:20Yeah, I like that a lot where I I think both guys I I think so much of fantasy analysis is like one or the other when

34:26we're talking about a one-two turn pick versus a 10th round pick. I'm sure uh he's going to keep on creeping up in

34:32those FFPC leagues. Maybe he'll be like a eighth round pick by the end of this whole thing. Uh I think they're both

34:37fine picks. You just don't draft them on the same team. I just want pieces of this offense and I think kind of it can

34:42be uh that simple. Uh, now I did want to kind of talk about the flip side here of your expectations for Achan heading into

34:52this season. No, McDaniel. Uh, you were saying that you did some projections work for the Dolphins. Uh, and things are just kind of there. It's tough. It

35:01It's so like I love HN. I think a lot of us forward thinking guys have been on him this whole time. Like he has been

35:07such a fun profile. It has been the nerds won the 188 pound back won. Uh, and now we're sitting here. He's an

35:13early second round pick. Uh, and he's just been such a tough click for me. Uh, and I think that you make a great point

35:20that like the receiving work has been his kind of uh, cheat code here and I don't know if it's going to still be

35:26there in the way that we've gone to expect from him.

35:31>> Yeah, when I went through the projection process, I got a little bit more optimistic because I probably didn't realize Bobby Slowick was the pass game

35:38coordinator for this offense last year.

35:40I just think of him in Houston and and you know leaving there two years ago.

35:43But they did hire from within ultimately. I mentioned that Jeff Hafley quote was before they had picked out an offensive coordinator. He ended up

35:50landing on a guy who was with Miami under McDaniel last year. So that's optimistic. The other optimistic part is they have nothing else. Like who are

35:59they going to throw to? Like people are really excited about Greg Doulich. He had like 150 routes last year and that's

36:04like easily the breakout year of his career. And it's like, dude, this is the best profile in this passing game as far

36:10as the wide receivers and tight ends by a mile because there's nothing in the receivers. I mean, you got the rookies

36:15that may if if they hit pan out, but Malik Washington, Jaylen Tolbert, 22 Atwell, I don't think you could come up

36:21with a less inspiring top three as far as the veterans go and, you know, the rest of the tight end room and Greg

36:27Doulich and and what they have. I got through the projection and I was like, I'm going to be pretty out on HN cuz

36:33he's going to lose so much. And then I was like, I got to I got to really push his target share back up because I I

36:38they got to find a way to throw to him out of the back field. Now, the issue is Malik Willis. The issue is this is a

36:44team that's going to run operate very slow. They want to do things uh with a lot of motion and do things in the

36:49Shanahan tree like Halfley's talked about that. They want to do a lot under center. They want to marry the run to

36:53the pass.

36:55That's what Malik Wil did in Green Bay.

36:57Malik Wils has made six career starts.

36:59He's never thrown more than 23 passes in a game. Um that's an extremely low low number. We have a very small sample on

37:05Malik Willis. He needs to average meaningfully more than that over the course of a season to have really any kind of pass volume. And I think he will

37:12cuz if he averaged 23 pass attempts per game, we're talking about under 400 pass attempts for a season. It's a it would

37:18be a an absurdly low number.

37:22But I do think they're going to be slow.

37:23They've talked about wanting to run the ball a ton. I think they're going to run the ball a ton. And so I have them

37:26projected for the fewest pass attempts in all of my projections. And then this is also the quarterback that's going to convert the fewest drop backs into

37:36actual pass attempts. So it's going to be called passes that are going to be the fewest. And then he in terms of the

37:42percentage of called passes that he turns into drop backs, there's three outcomes on a drop back. There's a run, there's a uh excuse me, there's a

37:48scramble quarterback run, there's a sack, and then there's actually getting the ball out. When I talk about the different quarterbacks, like a Tua last

37:55year is on the opposite end of the spectrum. doesn't scramble, doesn't take sacks, gets the ball out. That's great for fantasy. We get a lot of targets out

38:02of every called pass. Really, really high percentage of drop backs turn into pass attempts. Malik Willis is the other end of the spectrum, man. He's Justin

38:10Fields. That was that was Justin Fields last year was like, "This guy's an outlier in this stat." Malik Wils is the

38:15only one close. His career scramble rate and and uh sack rate combined to over 25% of his drop backs that aren't

38:22turning into pass attempts. So, you're already at the smallest probably projected. My projections aren't going to be accurate, but this is where I'm

38:29at. I I I do feel confident that they're going to be near the bottom in called pass plays and then the percentage of

38:36those that are actually going to turn to pass attempts is going to bring down so much more. If this team's not bottom

38:40five in total pass volume, I'll be shocked. I mean, it'll probably mean Malik Willis didn't play quarterback for a lot of the year and some other things

38:48went very differently than I'm expecting. I think most of the market's expecting. They do have the second hardest of schedule. They're going to

38:54have to throw because they're going to trail, but they're talking about wanting to run even when they're trailing. So, it's it's going to be tricky. And I

39:00think if you have Malik Willis, you have to understand that like the run game is going to be a big part of it. And people

39:03are excited about the explosive run rate for Han. But the tough schedule, the lack of scoring, like you're just betting on rush efficiency with Han, I

39:10think. Now, I like I said, I I did end up bumping the target rate back up because he doesn't have any wide

39:15receiver or tight end competition really at all. And you you have to assume that they're going to try to get the ball in

39:21his hands in the pass game. But quarterbacks like Willis also throw to running backs at really low rates because they hold the ball and they read

39:29downfield long until they take uh for a long time until they take a sack or they scramble. They don't get to the

39:35checkown. Um so they're going to have to have HN running these routes and using the running back area's element. It's a

39:42bit like Kirn where I think we may get that. I don't think we're going to get enough overall targets. So, it's made a

39:47Chan. He's a guy I've really really liked. It's made a Chan a pretty clear fade for me actually because I just

39:52don't see how the volume in the pass game can be strong enough. And I think you're really betting on the the

39:59efficiency. You're really betting on the fact that he was a 5.7 yards per carry guy last year. And that's tough, man.

40:04That requires a a high rate of explosives. Even though the coach uh you know, Bobby Sloick worked with McDaniel last year, I credit McDaniel for a lot

40:13of that. Even though I also credit Han for a lot of it. It's tough for a running back to wear it all on their

40:18shoulders on their own. There's just always a risk that the efficiency can fall off. And think about Saquon Barkley going into last year. We were like,

40:25dude, his rushing efficiency in 2024 was so great. There's no way he can't be as good as he was. We took him in the first

40:31round. The rushing efficiency cratered for Sean Saquon Barkley in 2025 in a much better offense. But that's because that happens. It happens for a variety

40:39of reasons. It happened in part because of an offensive coordinator change in Philly. And so if Han's rushing efficiency can't carry him, it's got to

40:45be what carries him because there's there's so little else there. I do think, as I was talking about, there could be some receiving volume. I do

40:51think they'll use him in creative ways.

40:54When you get into the projection element of it, this does not look like a team that's going to leverage running back area to the degree that

41:02offsets just the total pass volume.

41:04There's too many other macro concerns for this team.

41:09>> Yeah. Uh again, like it's just such a bummer to have to be out on Achan. Uh it's just I agree with all that. Like

41:15the the volume's going to be rough. Like I think that the way he burns you is just like long runs and I guess Slowick

41:22is just like, you know what, we're going to give him 200 routes out wide in the slot. Uh and he, you know, boosts his

41:27AOT uh in that way because when we talk about how this AOT stuff and airyards helps is spike weeks as well. You talked

41:35about the Raandre Stevenson uh wheel route. I'm seeing I think like week 18 he he's one of last year Raandre Stevenson is one of this is the list of

41:43running backs that have a 35 plus PPR point game. It's Gibbs JT Derrick Henry Hchn Bjan CMC Raandre Stevenson and of

41:51course he gets that in a monster receiving game with I believe one of his higher A dots on the year. Uh, I did

41:58want to bring up Raandre because you mentioned he had a wheel route. I think you said early in the year and if I

42:03remember correctly, I think everyone that drafted Trevon Henderson was like, I think that was our wheel route touchdown that Raandre [laughter] stole

42:09from us. I think that that that's what we drafted Trevian for. Um, so we're now in a spot where we talk about the play

42:16callers and New England was six last year, one of six teams with 100 plus air yards, two running backs lined up in the

42:23back field or just players lined up in the back field. So it seems like Mc this is kind of a uh initiative of McDaniel.

42:29We can also kind of peel back the curtain there that like their play volume was low. They were slower and their passing attempt volume was lower.

42:36So I think that like 100 plus error yards I think is even maybe understating how much this was maybe a McDaniel's

42:42initiative. But then also it could just be ballooned up by a couple of wheel routes here and there. But as we've

42:46spoken about like a couple wheel routes here and there, if Trevon Henderson is the one catching these, we're now talking about uh you know, like three

42:53separate weeks where we're going for 20 plus PPR points and like winning your week. And that can kind of goes into um

43:00a wormhole that I pulled up. Uh I think this is an Adam Harstad idea that most matchups are lopsided. I looked at this

43:06is like a video I did in 2024. My home league was decided by an average of 27 points. So the spike week is what we're

43:13hunting for and I think that ADOT is the uh driver for that. So I'm curious like is it wishful thinking for me to be like

43:19well I it's so tough cuz Raandre has a receiving skill set and that's really kind of the the bummer here is that he

43:25is a he is the perfect volume sponge build. Uh I don't want to compare him to David Johnson. We're talking about 210

43:32plus 220 plus pound back that can catch passes. He's obviously nowhere near the athlete as David Johnson. But when we start talking about, you know, the Levon

43:38Bells of the world and Raandre and, uh, Naji Harris, guys who are big and catch passes, that's Raandre. So, uh, I'm

43:45curious how, cuz I think when we talk about the Establish the Edge podcast, your, uh, projection podcast you've been doing, I don't think you've done the AFC

43:52East yet. Uh, and I'm very curious to know where are we at on the Patriots running backs because it seems like the

43:58high A dot thing is at least a point of emphasis for McDaniels, uh, just I guess in this kind of like new era that he's

44:04coaching here.

44:06Yeah, it's it's a fascinating one. We actually just recorded it last night. It may have posted by by now, but um when I

44:14was on there, I I I the line I use was I I do think people are the the Stevenson profile gets romanticized a bit as

44:20people focus some eye on Henderson, the people that are less inclined to be on the kinds of players that you and I are

44:25inclined to be on, Ron. Um Henderson had clear flaws as a rookie. As far as Stevenson's concerned, um, this is a guy

44:34who threw week 13 last year, had a 3.2 yards per carry with fumbling with a fumbling issue. Like he he got some of

44:41the downfield stuff. There was a quote from McDaniels during the the postseason that's on in the Coach Speak Index Discord. Shout out all the great work

44:49from Coach Speak Index. [clears throat] Um, McDaniel said that like outright said, I don't have the quote in front of me, but outright said that Stephvenson's

44:57blocking got him gave him the ability to produce more as a receiver or like it was like outright like the acknowledgement of the

45:06thing that we've kind of talked about which is Henderson really struggled in pass blocking last year and it probably played him off the field. Like you were

45:11saying when we first saw Stevenson catch a vertical route, it was like should that have been the Henderson thing cuz they spent all offseason talking about

45:17him as a pass catcher. Is this like in the playbook because in the game plan because they wanted to use their

45:23explosive player which by the way I mean Trey Anderson had all of his issues.

45:26He's the only running back in the league who had four 50 plus yard runs last year. I mean some of his peripherals

45:31were good. The evasion was good. There's there's stuff in the profile going back to college that is still very strong. He

45:37was a day two pick. his ABP being as lofty as it is does complicate things and I think people hammer him and they

45:44say Stephvenson's the do all um high floor back and and you guys are all wrong to be drafting Henderson higher than Stephvenson.

45:52Again, I I think there's a little bit there where people are missing sort of the es and flows that happened here. I

45:57think Trayvon had issues with pass blocking and Stevenson got more receiving work as a result. Then Stevenson when he got hurt was not

46:04running well at all. Right? I mentioned the 3.2 2 yards per carry through week 13 fumbling issue. Henderson really takes over at that point and is getting

46:12a lot more work and it's like the Patriots are saying, "Hey, we'll deal with some of the flaws because the explosiveness is something we need to

46:17get on the field." And then he gets a concussion right as uh Stevenson is back. I believe it was week 16 and then

46:26and then he misses week 17 if I'm not mistaken or right around there. Was in the fantasy playoffs and Stevenson absolutely smashes week 15 to 18.

46:34Carries that through the postseason.

46:35There was a lot made about the fact that uh Trayvon Henderson only played four snaps in the conference championship in a game where they're playing in snow and

46:42playing against Jared Stenham and they won 10-7. And I think they're really trying to use their I I always call it

46:48the first rule do no harm uh backs like Raandre Stevenson is that guy. He'll do what you need him to do, but he's also

46:55maybe kind of a jag. Like I very sack Zack Charbanet, right? Ver visav Ken Walker. Oh, he's not a good success rate

47:02runner. Ken Walker. Zack Shar, but it gets us the stuff that we need him to do and he and he does all the things and so

47:07that's why he plays more um you know just to draw another comparison. I think that's why uh Stevenson played as much

47:14as he did in the conference championship is that was what that game called for the rest of the postseason. Trayvon Henderson played 25 plus snaps in each

47:20of the other three games including going back into the Super Bowl. So I think a lot more was made in the fantasy

47:24community about like Henderson sucking and clearly getting benched and all of these things. He didn't really he he had a weirdly timed concussion and then it

47:32was more that Stevenson completely flipped his ball and hand efficiency and I think they rode the hot hand down the stretch which is fine but you also have

47:39to acknowledge that for the for the entire season Stevenson had the 3.2 yards per carry and had you know some other issues. Trayvon Henderson had 50

47:47more carries than Raandre Stevenson last year. I don't think people realize that it was uh Henderson who had 180 carries and Stevenson had 130 um for the regular

47:56season. Henderson had the higher targets per out as well. The there was early intent to get him the ball in the pass

48:02game, but again, he struggled in pass pro. The the I have the note here from McDaniels. He said his Stevenson's ability in pass pro allowed him to play

48:10a role as a pass catcher. I mean, that's like exactly what we're talking about.

48:13It's not really like a like as you said that you're like, am I crazy to think that that was the Henderson wheel route?

48:19No, I think McDaniels told us it was like I I think it's it's not some conspiracy theory from, you know, the

48:25slappies. Like I think that's what happened. Um but Raandre got hot late and and leveraged a really good role.

48:31Now at the same time, Raandre deserves credit for the plays that he made in the passing game and I do think he's going

48:35to get volume. I don't think he's going to go away. Um all those things are true. It's a really And then I also

48:41think Henderson had real issues with pass protection and all of those things.

48:45But in terms of the profiles, when I look ahead to 2026, I don't think what happened in 2025 is going to predict

48:502026 really at all. I think, like I said, there's es and flows. They had plans and they had to adjust based on

48:56who was actually producing in the different ways. And then I think as we go forward, there's a lot of uncertainty as there often is in fantasy football.

49:03And you have to sit back and go, okay, what's the long view is the phrase that I always love to use. You mentioned I

49:07have a podcast by that name at this point, but what's the long view on Henderson? He's a round two uh collegiate prospect, great uh background

49:14profile, explosive player, efficiency upside. What's the long view on Stevenson? Does everything at a competent level and and I'm not saying

49:22he's bad. He's not a bad player, but again, I do think the profile for Stevenson gets romanticized a bit. As I

49:27said, I don't think I mean, I think it's clear that Henderson has the higher ceiling profile. So, if if he starts to

49:36improve as a pass protector, if he starts to develop a little bit more as a receiver, that question you're asking about like are we just chasing something

49:44that really um didn't go well last year in terms of the Trayvon Henderson, especially the receiving role because of the pass

49:51blocking and all that. I just I don't think we are. I think that's very clearly something that could happen in year two for him if he's able to pick up

49:58the responsibilities on pass protection if he's able to get more comfortable at the NFL level in an NFL, by the way,

50:04where defensive fronts are doing a lot of things differently. Offensive lines are struggling with it. I don't think it's weird that there are rookie running

50:11backs who struggled in pass protection, not just him. RJ Harvey had issues with it. Um I I've heard this referenced with

50:18DJ Giddens. Like Jonathan Taylor ran the most routes of his career and was staying in on passdowns all year for the

50:23Colts and they thought they could use Giddens in that way and maybe they're just like look you are not picking up

50:27the stunts and the different things that these defensive lines are doing. It makes sense that rookies in as defenses have gotten better at disguising

50:33everything and are winning right now against veterans at on offensive lines and and everything else that the rookies in in you know pass protection are not

50:43seeing it really well in their first year. That doesn't mean they can't develop in those ways. is and if Henderson's able to develop in those

50:48ways, I have to believe that with his speed and his athleticism, some of the area stuff, that question you were asking at the top, it's still possible

50:56to get there. And then as I talked through the way that their season went, again, the main point I was trying to

51:01drive home is the Patriots, I think, like Trayvon Henderson. They wanted to find ways to use him. It's one of these

51:06antifragile bets where things can work in his favor even when things aren't going perfect cuz the team wants to create opportunities to utilize a player

51:15like him. That's why they drafted him.

51:18That's why they talked about him so much in, you know, as positively in the offseason. I'm definitely not all in on

51:22Henderson. He's expensive this year. I don't think you're crazy. I don't think you're as slappy. I don't think, you know, I mean, like it's it's absolutely

51:30uh a path here for Trayvon Henderson in year two.

51:33>> Yeah. And when you talk about the long view, it's something that I I I hate that I couldn't I just blanked on Sean's

51:38name, but trust that I've been following his stuff for a while. Whenever I do my Zero RB video, I mentioned the thing he

51:43did back in like 2017, uh, anti-fragility, all of that. Uh, and you guys do an exercise. I I last I checked

51:50in, you guys have done an exercise where you'll be like, "These are the guys getting drafted in the top two rounds

51:54next year." I think it's very easy to see a world where Henderson's like a two, three turn pick next year and then

51:59Raandre is like a 11th, 12th round guy.

52:02Uh, and I think that's probably the more likely scenario is at least that Henderson keeps this lead heading into next year. And like year one to year two

52:09is the biggest step up when it comes to these running backs. There's plenty in that you can kind of cherry pick of like

52:14Melvin Gordon was like god awful as a rookie and then a second year he becomes a league winner. Uh, it really wouldn't

52:20be all that shocking. Now I do want to bounce around to some other places. I will say this is where the area arts

52:28thing this we're now getting to a spot where we're connecting dots because none of this is set in stone. I do want to

52:32bring up there are some blue chip guys like I think Jir Gibbs is a great conversation piece that you mentioned in

52:37the article where uh you have Drew Petting who one I think one of the more shocking usages that when I was looking

52:43through the airard stuff is that Michael Carter a guy who used to be on my jets used to drive me nuts keeping Bree Hall

52:49off the field had like the seventh most air yards last year in a limited role.

52:54So this is a Drew Patzing initiative.

52:56Gibbs had I think for the first time in his career a positive A dot. Uh and I mean we all love Jir Gibbs but this just

53:01seems like the next door of like can can we talk can you know can we meet up in 10 years and talk about the Jir Gibbs

53:08year uh the way we just talked about the David Johnson year like that it seems like that is something that is maybe on

53:13the horizon.

53:14>> Yep. That's where I'm at with Gibbs honestly. I got through the projection and had him so much higher than even

53:19Bejan, which is >> a little scary, but I mean, Bejian loses his coordinator after doing some of that stuff last year. Gibbs gains one that's

53:28been doing some of that stuff. That doesn't mean that that Bejian won't be used in that way, but his receiving efficiency also spiked to a careerhigh

53:36last year. Gibbs has just always been high, meaningfully higher than Bean's in their first two seasons. And if you look back as prospects, and this is not to

53:43knock Bean as a pass catcher, right? But like you look at stuff like yards per out run. I mean Gibbs yards per out run

53:48in college is like multiple three plus yards per out run uh seasons at Georgia Tech before transferring to Bama and having a strong final season there as

53:56well in a tougher conference. I mean this is a guy who you don't do that as a running back. You don't have three yards

54:01per route run as a running back. It's absurd. He's obviously so dynamic. He's so explosive. He's the best version of the things that we're talking about with

54:09like Achan and um Keat Mitchell and and just now with Trayvon Henderson. And that type of efficiency is so meaningful to the type of outlier ceilings that

54:18matter for fantasy. When we talk about like elite ceilings, league winners, the things that actually win, you have to I always try to keep this in mind when I'm

54:26doing projections. You have to get unprojectable efficiency. And that's one of the fun things about the running back area exercise as you think through it is

54:33like who are the guys that are going to give me unprojectable efficiency? Who are the guys that are going to do insane

54:38things this year? Like Saquon Barkley two years ago, like Bjan Robinson did last year because he had a bunch of explosives last year. It just feels like

54:47it's the Jier Gibbs season for all the world. One of the big notes on the Lions is they drafted insanely well 2021 to

54:552023. Obviously, they had like Leaporta and Amanra and Jameson Williams and Gibbs all coming in, but they also had, you know, Pen Su and they had great

55:02defenders, Aiden Hutchinson and and Jack Campbell and then safeties and all these guys and they've had to pay all those dudes and now they're going into an era

55:09where they don't have a lot and they've already paid golf. They don't have a lot of cap flexibility. So, like when they

55:14brought in Pacheco this year, one year like $1.8 million deal, they brought in Tyler Conklin to build out tight end depth one year. I think it was 1.2. They

55:21brought in Cedric Wilson. They brought in uh Greg Dorch. They're all one-year contracts under 2 million because they they had to let Khalifa Raymond go. They

55:29had to let David Montgomery go, which is I think they're going to be very concentrated this year is where I'm going with this. I think they're they've

55:35already paid all these guys extensions.

55:36Gibbs is coming up and they're going to lean on those dudes in the middle of their prime because they don't they

55:42don't have the uh financial flexibility to do anything else. And it's not like those guys are old though, you know, it's just that second contract is

55:49starting for that era of of great Lions drafting. That has to be their core that carries them. It's the Jir Gibbs time.

55:56It's the Almanra time. I love Jameson Williams this year as well for a career year. But Gibbs, if I'm in an auction

56:02league, man, after the David Johnson 2016 season, I spent a lot of money at auctions on David Johnson in 2017 and then he played

56:10one game. It was it was awful. But I I was like, "This profile is so unique and the ceiling is so high because he was

56:18splitting out and running all these vertical routes, had all the receiving yards to go with the rushing stuff."

56:24Bruce Arens was still there. Bruce Arens ended up getting fired. And then by 2018, Mike McCoy was there. And we never

56:29saw David Johnson used like that again.

56:31It's one of the great tragedies in my mind of just sort of the last 15 years in in fantasy football really would be

56:38the the the comment. But uh Mike McCoy didn't split him out as much and didn't use him on air yards and his ADOT came

56:44way way down after Bruce Arens was gone.

56:46So he got that one glorious 2016 season and nothing else. But it's a reminder these things change yearover-year for Gibbs. I think all that stuff is

56:53changing this year in a meaningfully positive way. It's all more concentrated. Dan Campbell had a quote.

56:58He's our bellcow now. They've talked about him as a receiver this offseason.

57:02Again, shout out the coach begins.

57:04They've talked about how they want to get him out in routes that he has the talent to do that stuff. Um, I think

57:10you're going to get the running back yards. I think you're going to get explosives in the past game in addition to the explosives he brings you on the

57:16ground. I think you're going to lean on him in a way that they've wanted to for years, but they haven't been able to cuz

57:21they have a lot of respect for David Montgomery. When when Campbell says he's our workhorse now, he's tacitly admitting to you that Isaac Isaiah

57:29Pacheco is not David Montgomery. like they they have finally moved on from Montgomery, who they've always had a lot of respect and reverence for and used,

57:38but Pacheco is just like the cheapest dude that they could get their hands on on a one-year deal for under 2 million

57:43cuz they have all these extensions coming up that are going to hit, you know, they they didn't pay for a backup

57:48running back cuz they didn't want to. I don't I mean, you could draft PCO as a handcuff or whatever, but I just I think

57:53you're going to see so much Jir Gibbs because he's a matchup problem. He's the air apparent to Christian McCaffrey. When you when you listen to

57:59Kyle Shanahan this offseason, he almost sounds like he didn't realize how much he was playing Christian McAffrey, but he there's a quote where he's like there

58:07would be a time where the running back coach would take McAffrey off the field and he'd call in a play that the backup

58:11running back didn't run. And he's like that's sort of the problem when you build your game your passing game plan around the running back, which they did

58:18in in San Francisco that you either he goes now I I'm left with a decision of either calling a timeout or letting

58:23these guys run a play they haven't practiced.

58:26That's why he kept kept Christian McCaffrey on the field all the time is whether they're going run, pass, whatever, McAffrey can do everything and

58:33it's the flexibility as a play caller.

58:35It's not just a matchup thing. It's it's how you decide how to manage the game from the sideline. And then they're asking him

58:43like you do you think it's a crazy thing that coming off Achilles tendonitis you gave him the most touches in the NFL?

58:47And he's like yeah we probably should have not done that. It's like he doesn't even realize how much he did that, you

58:52know. But, uh, Jir Gibbs, middle of his prime, looks like we're going to get that season. This is a ascending player.

58:59This is a, you know, it's a ski lift you want to get on and ride to the top if you ask

59:05me. I mean, I think this is going to this could be one of the legendary seasons, like you said, that we could be

59:09talking about for a long time.

59:10>> Yeah. And I I want to selfishly do a history lesson here. Uh, is in that 2017 season, you have David Johnson, right?

59:18He goes down as you said and we're chasing this workload. And I just wanted to bring this up because I was doing a

59:23little bit of research for this. Gurley in terms of running backs since 2015 to have 50 or more receiving yards per

59:30game. He is the only one on this list of like I think eight running backs to have a lower than.5 A dot to have less than

59:40six targets per game. and he somehow turned that into he turned 76 targets I think here on a point4 AOT into 788

59:49yards and six touchdowns the year the next year 2018 he even does better but in terms of receiving he only turned 76

59:55targets into 580 yards and four touchdowns uh and this is before McVey had the idea to split him in the slot

60:01where he has five snaps from the slot in 2017 2018 that's bumps up to 89 uh 12.6 six yards after the catch per reception.

60:09So, he has taken everything we've talked about in this video and thrown it out.

60:13And that's what you're kind of talking about these like almost like rule breakers. I know you have the uh series like field tippers of guys that could

60:19just flip the whole thing on its head now. That's easier said than done. I I I don't know a single I don't know if

60:24that'll ever be done again. 75 plus targets with a 12 plus yards after catch per reception. Uh but that's like almost

60:30like what Tucker Craft was like kind of doing last year. Um just absolutely absurd. but this time on a point4 yd AOT

60:37for gurley. Uh I guess back then when you were covering football uh how are you making sense of that girly year?

60:43That was after he let everybody down in 2016.

60:46>> That was like right when McVey had taken over. That was McVeyy's first season.

60:51So, I don't even I don't even know that I was really making as much sense of the girly yards profile or whatever as much

60:57as it was like this 30-year-old like I mean like he was the youngest head coach in the history of the NFL

61:04when he got hired. This 30-year-old is destroying the league. Like he's lighting it. Like Shawn McVey is the smartest man alive. like they the stuff

61:14that we were talking about then was like they were doing the hurry up and then um he would tell Jared Goff in his helmet

61:22what to do on the play based on the defensive alignment. This is some of the precursor to some of the pre-nap and

61:28postnap rotations that we see nowadays is like we can't have Shawn McVey coaching through Jared Goff's head. And that was part of why Shawn McVey

61:36eventually moved on from Jared Goff was like, he's talked about it a little bit, but it was like, I needed a quarterback

61:42who when he turned his back to the field to go do the play fake out of the under center and then hit the top of his drop

61:49and looked downfield and saw a different picture than he saw pre- snap. Didn't panic and that was sort of what he that

61:55was the the concern for early career Jared Goff. Now, credit to Jared Goff. I mean, credit to McVey and getting Stafford and going winning a title that

62:04way, but credit to Jared Goff for going to the Lions and becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league as well

62:09in his own right. I mean, he's obviously an incredible player, too. But that was a big part of that trade and and them

62:14acquiring McVey and all that, but in the early going, it was Jared Goff is this young player who had a really poor

62:19rookie season and suddenly Shawn McVey shows up and Shawn McVey is like coaching through Jared Goff's helmet.

62:26And I mean that was like the 2017 Los Angeles Rams were such a fun team to cover as far as the the the the unique

62:33stuff of the gurly profile. What I remember about that year is somehow McVey got gurly into uh running against light boxes at a higher rate than any

62:43other high volume runner. I remember writing the next year that of all car backs who had 250 plus carries or something like that, he was the he had

62:51like a 75% rate of like light or um something boxes either light or or or um average or whatever like non-stacked or

63:01maybe it was just light. I can't remember exactly. And like no other runner over 250 carries was over 50% in that. So he had like a 25 percentage

63:09point gap over everyone else. And he he had like a near MVP season. like he got the runner up for the MVP, but this was

63:16a team that was like, "We'll just give you light boxes because we're so afraid of everything you're doing throwing on us. What like

63:23again the whole thing about getting to the line because they had Cooper Cop, they had Robert Woods, they had Sammy Watkins that year, had a good season. It

63:29was a fascinating team to cover. But I love those notes about Gurley that that was uh it really drives home with the RB

63:36area stuff. It drives home the point that the air yards are really helpful to the ceiling receiving efficiency, the ceiling receiving yards. That Gurley is

63:46that one outlier season as you said, he's the only one with a sub whatever it was that you just gave us uh the.5 A dot

63:53that was able to put up that that many receiving yards. And then the next year, even as he added some area yards, his

63:58receiving yards came way down. It's it's really tough to have the type of massive receiving yardage that we've seen. It does get back to this point that what

64:06we're doing in fantasy, it's not really projecting all of the nuance, all of the little things that we love to focus on.

64:13I've been writing about this concept of the 60/40 rule lately, which is my way of saying that all of the like R squared

64:20stats that people throw out there, they're usually like max out at about 6, which means, you know, 60% of what you're trying to predict is explainable

64:27by the stuff you're looking at. The 40% is more unexplained variance. We spend so much time on the 60%. Runback areas

64:35are in the 40%. They're the thing that we can't really predict on a week- toeek basis or whatever, but it's also stuff

64:41like that that that actually wins in fantasy. It's that unexplainable uh unprojectable outlier efficiency, the explosive seasons for as much time as we

64:52try to sit and predict things. We have to remember that there's a lot of uncertainty. And part of it is we just

64:58want to find the really really great players that going to maybe be in situations that are unique. Now with running back areas, I think we can

65:04predict the situations where coaches have shown some interest in it and are willing to to to show it. Is the the

65:10best example again goes back to David Johnson. He had the best running back area season in recent memory and the next full season he played under a

65:18different coach. They didn't use him that way. They didn't split him out.

65:21They didn't throw to him vertically and he was pretty bad in 2018. It was a a pretty huge bummer because he was he

65:28wasn't really viewed as like uh Wes Welker the way Christian McCaffrey is when he was out in routes. He was viewed

65:33as like a tight end. He was a taller running back and a big dude and they would run him like over the middle on

65:38like inbreaking routes and then throw him these like where he would use like his big frame to box out a defender.

65:44Throw him these like tight end routes after they split him out of the back field. and he would produce on that

65:50stuff constantly and then you know some wheel routes and some vertical stuff and we didn't see that in 2018. All we saw was a lot of

65:58you know Mike McCoy first and 10 runs up the middle which was something he always did. You mentioned the Melvin Gordon

66:03rookie year inefficiency. Mike McCoy was his offensive coordinator then. It was a lot of first and 10 predictable runs up the middle that hurt Melvin Gordon early

66:10in his career as well. There's a lot of these little things that happen, but you're looking for the the the blend of

66:15the coaching and the player versatility and the usage that gives them the opportunity for the spike plays and then the talent that can actually go out and

66:22get it. Um, and then there's, you know, there's the outliers like Gurley that can even transcend that, right? Like so that that that gurly season, that Rams

66:30season, a fun one for sure.

66:31>> Nuts. Uh, I do want to bring up we're we're running a little bit long here, but I I think I I do want to start to

66:37pick your brain on uh running backs you didn't mention. I think this one you'll like. Uh I don't want to draw too many

66:42parallels because this is swinging for the fences here. The Cardinals were three and 14 last year. They bring in Mike Laflur. We have a lot going here.

66:52If you remember Mike Lafleur, he of course comes from the Rams who had the second most air yards to running backs

66:58last year. Of course, Kairen like the volume isn't quite there. Uh but we had Laflur on the Jets for Bree Hall's

67:04rookie year that season with Bree Hall.

67:06He had over a fiveyard A dot on PFF and he led all running backs and air yards despite only playing seven games. Now we

67:15enter Jeremiah Love, firsttime head coach. Jeremiah Love had his highest AOT last year at 2.4 yard AOT, which is pretty absurd for a college running back

67:24uh with his profile.

67:27Could this be? You know, we're talking about the Cardinals. They're going to be behind in these game scripts and they have a lot of pass attempts. Could we

67:33see some downfield Jeremiah Love action?

67:36uh where all of the sudden he's in the top, you know, five for receiving yards of the position. Uh stacking up PPR out

67:43of the back field. Of course, there's like uh Trey Benson, James Connor, Tyler Aluk concerns, but when you just talk about like draft capital, the talent,

67:51and then some of the marriage of this AOT and airy yard stuff. Jeremiah Love, if we're looking for efficiency, it's not going to be touchdowns, you know, uh

67:58in this offense. Could this kind of make up uh and close the gap? be somebody at the two three turn I've been drafting a

68:04lot of where uh you just think historically these guys who go top five not a lot of them make it that far in

68:09the draft where they're getting you know two three turn like you can think back to Zeke was like a first round pick

68:13seaquin last year of course Genty was like one two turn uh love you're getting a discount on whether people are feel

68:19burned from Genty or whether uh they're just out on the Cardinals in general uh have you given Jeremiah Love any thought

68:25uh with the airyard stuff >> I you know I gave him a little bit of thought and I I mean I did consider

68:31consider the Lafleur element not on the level that you're on. You had said there were some guys you wanted to run by me that you've been looking at

68:39and I'm over here raising my eyebrows like you just got me on Jeremiah Love cuz how do you get there with the

68:44efficiency in this offense? How do you get there when the they have the hardest schedule in the league. The touchdown production is not going to be there. I'm

68:51concerned about Love's outlook from for the team perspective.

68:55You noted it, man. He comes over from the Rams where they were doing this last year. They were just implementing it.

69:00But that stat you gave about him being with the Jets when Bree Hall had the great rookie receiving. He only ran 109

69:06routes, but he had awesome efficiency, a ton of volume, five plus ADOT. I didn't realize that Bree had that big of an

69:11ADOT that year. That's huge.

69:13>> And then the fact that Jeremiah Love has this in the profile that you mentioned that he had the uh 2.4 AOT last year.

69:22It may explain why the new regime wanted to draft him where they did, right? Like like Laflur's like I have a plan for

69:28utilizing that exact thing in addition to everything he does as a runner and there's obviously but like I can make him this dynamic Christian McAffrey Jir

69:37Gibbs. I can make him the focal point of our offense that that is the runner and the the flex receiver vertical route.

69:45Bejian Robinson did it last year. I talked about his AOT came up the very elite guys. That's that's what gets back

69:50to that stat about the 85 plus targets that there were six guys that had it last year. I think there were teams that

69:56were like, "This is a button. This is an easy button. We really like and and and we want to get our stars the ball a lot.

70:03Running back receiving has been down, but I think there's certain teams that they're really looking at it." You want to be in on those running backs. I think

70:10I think you just made a really strong case that Jeremiah Love has that in the profile.

70:17I'm pretty stoked. I'm I'm pretty stoked to get uh a few more Jeremiah Love shares in my bags. Dude, I I have too

70:23many because you get to the spot where you take like Jamar Chase 103. You miss out on the two, you know, legendary

70:27running back like obvious candidates.

70:29You come back around and that whole tier is wiped from uh like Squan Hampton like all the way through Chase Brown and then

70:36you're like you're debating between Jeremiah Love and Bree Hall as your RB1.

70:39And I just happen to take a lot of Jeremiah Love in that spot. Now, uh someone that you actually already mentioned, but I I did want to get your

70:46take on this. I just can't get this out of my head. Uh, and someone I didn't expect to be very high on. Somebody that

70:52now for underdog drafts I have him as my 109 and half PPR uh, is James Cook. And it's very similar to kind of the David

70:58Johnson thing is I have on I have like a devil and an angel on my shoulder. Like one being this is a 199 pound back out

71:05of Georgia who was known for his receiving outlook. But then the other, you know, the the devil on my shoulder is saying, "Well, a lot of these coaches

71:15are idiots. You know, Joe Brady, I don't want to give him too much credit. He he has one of the craziest haircuts

71:21aesthetics I've ever seen uh on a guy.

71:25he is a little bit out there and he has used James Cook like prime Nick Chub or Derk Henry for the last two years where

71:32he's just getting none of the receiving work where it seems like uh and I even I I did a video recently on James Cook

71:37where uh when Joe Brady took over the year where it was Dorsy to Joe Brady that's where the receiving production took off for James Cook over I think it

71:45was like a 10ame stretch with Joe Brady that season like a 60 catch pace and then Joe Brady just like seemingly

71:51forgot about it and Ty Johnson was on the team at that point in time and And we now have like this weird there's like

71:56inconsistencies here. I don't like I don't want to be too critical of Joe Brady cuz he's done a decent job here.

72:01Uh but in 2024 Tai Johnson had a 7.9 yard a dot in 2022 air yards. Last year that goes to minus 42. So he's just like

72:10all over the place. James Cook goes from zero air yards in 2024 up to 43. I'm including playoffs here. So he kind of

72:16switched them but not enough. Like if we had 223 airs from James Cook last year that would have been obviously absurd.

72:22Uh, so now we're in the spot where I I just wonder we bring in Pete Carmichael who's probably just going to like hold

72:28the clipboard, but when we talk about Joe Brady, is he now going to uh, you know, he now has to care about special

72:32teams and defense and whatever? And can a guy who's been working with Shawn Payton since ' 06 get in his room and

72:39just say, "What if we just gave James Cook like 60 catches?" like in a in a world where we're throwing a second

72:44round pick at DJ Moore and scratching and calling for receiving production.

72:47Why not just get probably our best playmaker the ball in his hands when in college like that's he was a sub 200lb

72:54receiving explosive back. He he I think him and Kenny Macintosh kind of split things where else I think James Cook would have been more like a 40 catch guy

73:00his last year at Georgia. Uh and they've just like completely gone away from it.

73:04It's to me one of the more puzzling things I can remember but I do think sometimes things just happen. I I I I

73:10don't want it to be wish casting. you know, we talked about with David Johnson. We can go even to like Joe

73:13Mixon where he will at Oklahoma, he was that guy and then NFL play calls are like, nah, I I don't think he can really

73:19catch passes. Uh, so I don't know. I'm stuck between wish casting and stuck between if we look up and James Cook

73:24catches 60 balls and scores like 21 points per game, I'm going to be beside myself if I don't have a decent sized

73:30bag uh of James Cook just given the offense, the the production, the efficiency, the offensive line, all that.

73:36Yeah, I this is a really tricky one, especially with the the Carmichael edition and the tie into Payton who's been a, you know, a running back

73:44pass volume guy for, you know, innovator for years. Obviously, you go back to the the Saints days and Reggie Bush, but

73:51really leading into the Darren Sprouls days and and but also the not just receiving backs, but you know, like the way that Pier Thomas would add a bunch

73:59of value and Mark Ingram would add value and and then obviously Alvin Chimera in more recent years and um Pete Carmichael

74:07was around for a lot of that and and I do think that is uh a really important thing in writing about it last year for

74:15Stealing Signals on my weekly like column breaking down everything. I do feel like I had a pretty good grasp on what was happening last year. I it can

74:22easily change any given year. U but really last year, the last couple years cuz you mentioned the Tai Johnson stuff.

74:28Ray Davis also had a 2.8 A dot in 2024 and then it was just 0.1 last year. But in 2024, it was both Tai Johnson and Ray

74:37Davis that had some real air yards.

74:38Davis only ran 101 routes. Um and then in 2025, Cook had the higher A dot and those guys didn't. But they combined for

74:49they they basically combined to run more routes than James Cook. Um I don't know if that happened necessarily last year.

74:55It did the year prior. Uh and so you get this thing where I the other the other side I look at is targets per out run to

75:01try to determine like I what I call intent. So like when we talk about certain backs that that get way more

75:07like I I mentioned it with the Trayvon Henderson thing. He was getting a much higher targets per out run than Randre

75:12Stevenson. And you're seeing that like when he's out and around, they want to throw to him. In the pass game, we saw

75:16it with like R.J. Harvey last year. Like some of these guys that this is something that teams are they're trying to get this guy the ball. James Cook had

75:23a lower targets per out run than like meaningfully lower than Ray Davis last year. Slightly better than Tai Johnson, meaningfully lower um

75:34uh than Davis. But but essentially the the way that I would read this is these three guys are somewhat interchangeable in the pass game. And the reason I think

75:42they play it that way is because I mean it's sort of like because they're not fantasy football players. They they see James Cook as a runner. It's a it's

75:51more of a like an old school way of doing it. He's a he ran 309 times last year. They see him as an explosive

75:56runner. That's his biggest value and they want to give him a breather at some point. You mentioned it. He's a sub

76:00200lb guy. And so they're like, we have interchangeable pieces in the pass game.

76:04And they they make the route sort of interchangeable. the two backups kind of combined for a similar receiving role to him when he's out in a route. He's not

76:12more likely to see a target. His targets per out run is not meaningfully higher.

76:15The area yards were better for him last year, but they were better for the other two the year prior meaningfully, as you

76:20noted with the Tai Johnson stuff. And so, it's kind of like they have those plays in the playbook, but it's just

76:24sort of who's out in the on the field when they dialed it up. They don't even it's not the same thing as the Kyle

76:29Shanahan thing where it's like, "Oh, I sent the wrong guy out there. He can't run this vertical route." It's like, we

76:33think Ty Johnson can run these routes.

76:35We think Ray Davis can run these routes and we'll throw vertically to him as well. Um, and so I think a big part of

76:41it comes down to their preference for James Cook as a runner and then when are you going to get your guy the breathers?

76:47You're getting him in in the pass game.

76:49And so it's it sucks for fantasy because the the targets and the receptions are so valuable, but I do think it's a limit

76:55a real limitation for him from a routes perspective. I think when you look at the declining targets per route every season of his career, you see that lack

77:02of intent in the passing game as well.

77:04because the intent is in the rushing game. The intent is them giving him the ball 309 times on the ground, right? And

77:11so, it's not that they don't think he's good or anything. It's just that I think they really like their other two backs

77:15as well and then they mix them in more in uh passing downs than they will in on on rushing downs. And it really cuts

77:24into Cook's ceiling, or at least it has the last few years. That's the way I've read what's happened with Cook's receiving the last few years. That

77:30doesn't mean that's what's going to happen in 2026 with Carmichael there. I mean, you make great points. It's one of the big questions that I've tried to to

77:36nail down cuz to me, Cook's profile, if I have that right, he's a little bit of what I like to call like a trapback. I

77:42mean, he's he's not a trap back cuz he's going to get the touchdowns. They have a ton of rushing T's. They've had 30 plus

77:46rushing TDs the last two years, which is massive. The trapback refers to guys who are basically between the 20s runners.

77:52They don't get enough touchdown equity.

77:53They don't get enough receiving. He's he's relying on rushing efficiency and touchdowns, which is a good profile.

78:00It's a tough It's a tough first round profile for me be not because I don't like James Cook or don't see him as a

78:08fun pick because every other pick in it's an opportunity cost point, right?

78:11Every other pick in that range is like I got an elite ceiling on this dude. This guy's elite. This guy's elite. This

78:16guy's elite. Everyone going around him is super fun to pick. So Cook for me unfortunately has been a pretty big fade

78:22just ultimately because he's going in a range where I want to get as much exposure as I can to a lot of different

78:28guys. Justin Jefferson and all these dudes. I I want like I Justin Jefferson used to be the one-on-one. Like I mean

78:33like the fact that I could potentially get him. I don't know exactly where they're going at this point anymore, but they were going Jefferson was going

78:38behind Cook for a lot of the offseason if I don't if I don't recall. I think maybe he's flipped him at this point,

78:42but there's other running backs in that range. I actually really like Ginty um this year. I I really like I mean Omari

78:49Hampton I think is going a little later, but several of the running backs in that range I think have some real ceiling for

78:54some of the things we're talking about.

78:55I have a harder time seeing it with Cook because of the ways that they've seemed to lean more into uh him as a workhorse

79:02as a rusher and thus he hasn't compiled like the workhorse receiving target route volume and and again a lot of that

79:11comes back to me probably reading a little bit too much into the targets per route and the fluctuating A dots that

79:16you described and how weird that has all been. Uh, but it does seem like there's not a clear intent there that James Cook

79:22is above those guys as a pass catcher.

79:25>> Yeah, I think he sadly made good points.

79:27The thing with James Cook that I think is so interesting for what we're talking about here is he's had a positive ADOT

79:32every single year. I just don't trust Joe Brady to like be one of these guys who ends up being top 10 in terms of

79:38running back area. I mean, we'll see.

79:40But this is more like we were saying earlier, this is kind of the Shanahan McVey style tree guys here. Uh, and

79:47sadly, James Cook hasn't made it undeniable. Like, since the 2023 season, his yards per run has been like 1.1, which is fine, but it's not meaningfully

79:55better than Tai Johnson uh or Ray Davis at this point. Uh, I do want to bring up I'll let you talk about uh Ashen Genty

80:01because I like Ashen Genty as well. I listened to you talk about him in established edge. The price is a little

80:06rich, right? The price is definitely him and Hampton are are both guys where you are uh for pretty downyear ones, you are

80:14paying a a pretty penny here. Uh but he you made a good point and kind of what we talked about like right in the

80:19beginning here of uh ADOT is cool but you almost like want the the the viz right like if I could go into Python and

80:29uh show you the tails of where these average of the targets are coming or just like where the targets are uh

80:33downfield. He had a couple games of like high a dots. You mentioned he had uh I think maybe it was a downfield pass. I

80:39think it was literally against the Texans, like the 60-yard touchdown versus the Texans, which uh I go back to that game every time like maybe I want

80:46to move down Ashen Gentine. It's like no, he put up 190 yards and two touchdowns on the best defense in the

80:50AFC at the time. Uh which is just absurd. He he ragdalled a monstrous unit. Uh where are you at on Genty? Then

80:58we also, of course, we get Kubak who was also in the top 10 for the air yards among running backs. Not meaningfully

81:03so. He had like 16 air yards for guys out of the backfield, but still one of the few positive teams in the NFL. Uh we

81:09talk about, you know, we talked about M McVey, first time coming in. We can start to we can start to connect some

81:14dots here if we want to really uh think about a home run.

81:17>> Yeah. And Mike Washington, the the the backup draft selection, the past blocking is considered a liability. He's like a breakaway run rate guy, really

81:24athletic. Um but this is sort of the anti- James Cook point where I don't think there are other guys on the roster

81:31that are going to cut into Gent's uh routes. Early in the offseason, Clint Kubak's like, "Yeah, we'd love to have a

81:36second back involved." And then like a few months later, he's like, "We have to play Ashen Genty every single down.

81:42We're never taking him off the field."

81:43Like he pretty much I mean he obviously didn't say exactly that, but more or less um got in got in got his hands on

81:50the team in in mini camp and was like, "Oh, uh we have one really really good running back and then a bunch of other

81:57dudes." I his evasion was really strong last year. He was in a really tough spot. The offensive line was horrible.

82:03They were dead last in all the rushing factors. They were dead last in plays, points, yards, first downs, rushing yards, rushing TDs, yards per carry.

82:10Obviously, a lot of that was him on the rushing side, and I've seen the the Trent Richardson comparison a bunch. I

82:16mean, I just don't think it's fair. I I think their offensive line really struggled. One of the stats I gave about

82:20them last year was they had um 100 or fewer air yards uh as a team five times last year. The whole rest of the

82:30league combined had 17 such games. like a a half a game per season for the rest of the league and um

82:39five for the for the Raiders [laughter] and and actually for the other teams most of them came late in the year.

82:44There was three in week 18 and for the Raiders like uh four of the five came by week 10. Like by week 10 the Raiders had

82:51done it four times. The rest of the NFL had done it five times total. It's like you've done it 40% of your games you

82:55have not had a 100 team air yards. You can't even Gino Smith couldn't even get the ball down the field. Brock Bowers

83:01was hurt. The offensive line was hurt.

83:02The receivers were horrible. And so you I mean whatever like whatever was causing that. The defense is stacking the line to take away Genty, etc. And

83:10they scored 10 or fewer points seven times in 17 games. They had a game where they ran 30 offensive plays and had

83:15three first downs. This was the worst offense in the league last year by a ton in a in a league that had some other bad

83:21offenses like your Jets. I mean, there were some bad teams, [laughter] but we had this was an awful awful team.

83:28And so in terms of what to expect from Ashen Jensy going into this year, I think a lot of people, you know, I talk

83:35about this a lot when I do these uh projections and I do the team level stuff. A lot of people I think they look

83:40at the individual player profiles and they compare them. They say, "Here's what Genty stats were and here's what the other running back stats were." I

83:46think you you have to contextualize a player like him through the context of his offense. I know people don't want to

83:53just give him a pass for a really bad rookie year and his ADP is basically the same as it was last year and he had a

83:59bad rookie year. It's tough. But to your point, man, he would look he looked good in the open field at various points.

84:04Again, his evasion numbers were really strong. When he actually found space, he was doing stuff like he was he I if you

84:11actually watched all the games last year, you were like, "Yeah, no, Ashton Genty can play. This is not Trent Richardson. It's a situation where the

84:19offense is is making it impossible to do anything. Again, I mentioned he had o such a negative A dot. He actually had

84:28um it's hilarious because he actually got some air yards, but he still had such a negative A dot that he had over

84:33or less than negative 100 air yards. Um, and so you like as far as your receiving efficiency is concerned, if your total

84:40air yards are 109, it's that's not in the running back's best interest. It's it's Gino Smith not able to push the ball vertically. He's

84:50running around back there and he's throwing to you. I I I mentioned in week two or whatever it was, he had like

84:55negative 25 airs on on four targets.

84:58Like I mean, it's like a -6 yard a dot.

85:01Like it's absurd how far behind the line of scrimmage he's getting the ball thrown to him. He's got to do a ton of

85:06work to have a three catch, one yard line. And then you're like, man, this guy only had one receiving yard and

85:10three catches. He sucks. It's like, no, dude. He broke like 17 tackles to get that one yard. He earned that one yard.

85:16It's a It's a challenging situation for a running back when you're in a situation like that. That was part of why I was concerned about Jeremiah Love

85:23this year. It's why I'm concerned about Devon Achan. You can't do it all on your own as a running back. We know that from

85:27a ton of the uh the history of the NFL, a ton of the offenses that we've seen over the years. You do have to

85:32contextualize a little bit about the team con, you know, what what the team is and what they're able to do for that

85:38player. They paid a ton of money for Tyler Linderbomb. They actually have improved the offensive line. They got Colt Miller hopefully healthy at left

85:45tackle, right? Um they drafted another guard option in the third round. Uh this Trey Zun guy. They bring in Francisco Mendoza who I do think is going to be an

85:55upgrade over um I mean I don't think it's going to be great, but I think he's probably going to be an upgrade over

85:59what Gino Smith was doing last year. I don't necessarily think that Gino Smith's going to be horrible with the Jets either. I think it was just such a

86:04bad situation last year was bad for everyone. The offense was illconceived, etc. I think Mendoza in a Clint Kubak offense is very helpful. Um or, you

86:12know, Cousins for as long as he plays, but I I I don't think Cousins was very good last year, and I'm not expecting

86:17him to make it very deep into the year.

86:19I do think he'll start week one, but I'm expecting Mendoza by mid-season, easily by mid-season, potentially by like week five. Um, but anyway, I I

86:27think this is a team that's going to use a lot of Ashen Genty. I think they'll use him on the routes. Uh I think they

86:32have such limited receiving. It's it's very similar to the Han point where like he's going to have to get a few extra

86:38bumps to the target share because they have no other weapons. And in terms of the stuff like the RB area, you got to

86:44use him that way cuz you're not going to just throw downfield to like Jaylen Naylor and and Trey Tucker every time.

86:49Like go get playmakers into space. Um, Brock Bower is obviously a great a a great one to to to be on the field with

86:58as well who's going to draw some coverage in those types of things. But I think there's plenty of room for Gent. I

87:03don't think this is going to be like an amazing offense. My main point is just that it was so basement level. Hey,

87:07shout out some some brand synergy there.

87:09So basement level last year that it can only go up in terms of the situation.

87:13And I do think Clint Kubak's going to probably bring it up to a a competency level that allows for Genty to do some of what he does well.

87:22I'm not all in on Genty, but yeah, I mean, I'm I'm pretty excited because I think the the area yards and the

87:27receiving profile and the routes could all be really really strong.

87:30>> Yeah, it's a good note. It's kind of a funny visual. A lot of his negative airard stuff, I think, was like when the

87:38shot clock is ticking down in basketball and they just chuck it to somebody to just get a shot up no matter what.

87:42That's a like it was just a quarterback getting swarmed at six yards behind.

87:45It's just Genty like please God get us back to the line of scrimmage. Uh which I think you know holding that against

87:50him is pretty absurd. Uh I I do want just to kind of close us out. We'll talk about two running backs uh that I I want

87:57to not pitch you on but I think kind of fit in uh this area discussion but that you didn't dig into too much in this

88:04article. The first one being a running back who's going at the one-two turn, who took a lot of us nerds for an

88:10absolute ride in 2024. Uh, Saquon Barkley. He is very similar to your David Johnson, uh, to your Joe Mixon, to your, uh, James Cook where this was

88:21somebody that was like godlike reception, uh, prospect coming out of college. We we all thought, you know, he's going to get the same stuff as

88:29McAffrey, and it just hasn't been there, especially since he's gone to the Eagles here. Uh what I'll give you is this. In

88:352024, Saquon led all running backs with 50 or more targets, target uh playoffs included. Obviously, he didn't get the 50 plus targets in the regular season.

88:43Uh but he led them in airs and he led them uh in a dot among all running backs with 50 plus targets. He had a 93 airard

88:51total, 1.7 yard AOT. The year before that was on the Giants, second most airs with a 2.2 yard AOT. This is the second

88:57most air yards among running backs with the pre-qualifier of 50 plus targets.

89:00So, in terms of running backs getting the volume, he is working the most downfield. Of course, last year that takes a step back, but Tulo's in. And I

89:07think kind of an overarching like macro uh thing here is I think the biggest upside for like a crazy swing in air

89:13yards or ADOT is the new play cards we're talking about a lot here. You know, Kubak going to the Raiders where

89:18we have Petting to the Lions. So, here we have Manion who I don't know much about. He comes from the Packers, which

89:23would be awful, right? Jacobs is, you know, he is across the bottom of all these things in terms of targets, area

89:28yards, all of this. but he also comes from like the Shanahan McVey style tree where this is like similar to James Cook

89:34and it's just like the fantasy bro Madden guy in me. But like when are these coaches going to get into a room

89:41and as we're talking about right with these tight end mismatches are are going away and it's it's time to let Sequin go

89:47out there against your 240lb linebacker?

89:49I know they're faster these days but they're still not out there in coverage the same way. And we do have some like

89:54this is a whole other rant, but we have some D coordinators who still will have like a uh edge rusher like stand up and

90:01drop back into coverage and just get absolutely abused sometimes here. Uh what do we think about Saquon? Kenny, you know, there's no more AJ Brown.

90:08There's like a four game sample without AJ Brown if his targets going up. It's definitely wishful thinking. It's Jaylen Herz. It's a team uh that is probably

90:17going to be bottom five in pass attempts as well. But when we start to get imaginative and we start to talk about

90:21well he's not going to get 2,000 rushing yards again unless right but if not the way he gets the efficiency uh is

90:27touchdowns and then it's like can he turn like 50 catches can he do a 50 catch season with a high a dot uh and

90:34start to flirt with 20 plus points per game at the one two turn.

90:38>> Yeah I'm I I guess I'm a little nervous about um again the pass volume very similar to the achan thing and where

90:45they've been the last few years. I I he burst on the scene in 2024. You mentioned that with that huge week one

90:51against Green Bay and he had a a wheel route touchdown in that game in addition to 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

90:59>> I remember that game.

91:00>> Um >> Yeah. And then later in the year >> Yeah. caught another vertical touchdown later in the year and it was like, yeah,

91:08I mean, we don't need him adding all this stuff if we're we're the faders on this guy cuz he's running for 2,000

91:12yards, too. but he was a great example of how you can add some ceiling when you when you hit on those things. Um even

91:18though he didn't really necessarily need it and and late in that year, a lot of it did fall off for him, the receiving.

91:26Um 10 or fewer yards, it looks like receiving yards in each of his final five regular season games, under 10 yards in two of the four postseason

91:34games. He did get a lot receiving in the Kansas City uh Super Bowl win, six catches for 40 yards, but um he ended up

91:43only he ended up under 300 receiving yards for that year. And then also again last year it it hasn't really manifested

91:49in like a massive ceiling. The targets per route haven't necessarily been there. He's run a ton of routes, but they again it's been like you said a

91:55little bit like James Cook where like we're not seeing like enough intent when he prior to coming to the Eagles his

92:01targets per route 18% or higher every year of his career six straight years got as high as 25.7% on PFF's routes

92:09numbers the two years in Philly 13.1% 14.8%. So, even though there's some area yards, it's that again, it's that thing of the the volume. Like with Genty, I'm

92:17like, I want the the the volume, the routes, and and and the overall play style with the the the splash potential.

92:25I'm concerned about it with um with Han, as I mentioned. I'm concerned about it with Barkley Herz's similar quarterback style with the athleticism, some of the

92:32scramble. He's if he throws, he's going to vertical. Uh he's going to be a little bit more vertical uh in general.

92:38Now, some of that can go to Barkley if they use him that way. I just don't know if at this age that's going to come up.

92:45Um, you know, I kind of feel like that was the 2024 thing was like, hey, we got this new toy. He's he's our, you know,

92:51our new stud player. We're using him every way possible. And he had the A dot. 2025.

92:57It came way back down. His AOT was way lower. There wasn't as much of the air yards there. And the pass game was just

93:02so underutilized in general. I think with, you know, Mai Lemon on the team, Eli Sters, they're actually a little bit deeper. They bring in Dantavian Wix a

93:11little bit deeper deeper in the pass catcher room even though they lost AJ Brown because they still have Devonte Smith, they still have Dallas Goddard.

93:16They're like uh you know five reasonable targets deep. I I just I I have a hard time seeing it with Barkley as well at

93:24his age. I think it's another one where you're betting on rushing efficiency.

93:28It's another one that I'm fading very similarly to Cook as you as you alluded to. Now, the last one I want to talk

93:34about is one that I I think you're with me that you're not fading him from what uh I've heard you talk about here, and

93:40it's one that in most years I think we are fading. Uh and it's David Montgomery where he is like very classic dead zone

93:47back, but he's seems to be fairly priced and is probably fine. I I I will say it seems like the Texans do want to go

93:54slower, run the ball behind him. Uh but he has some interesting like I don't think we give him enough credit as a

93:59receiver. He had a 2.6 six-yard ADAT as a rookie, 7 on his entire career. He cleared 40 plus air yards every single

94:06year in Chicago. Now, of course, we're like going pretty far back here in Detroit. His best air season was 2.6.

94:12So, he just was like fully not in this role, but then last year, we can give Nick Kay some credit that he is from the

94:18McVey system. Uh he is, you know, he didn't clear 100 plus air yards to the running back out of the backfield, but

94:2566 was the seventh most last year. So, still pretty decent. I think Woody Marsh got some of that. It's also tough to

94:30like justify giving a lot of that work when your running backs are Woody Marks and uh Nick Chub. So maybe it's more of

94:37a point of emphasis here, but I just think in general uh I've heard you talk about him where it's like they gave him

94:41the contract. they're kind of, you know, it's essentially going to be what happened with Mixon, but imagine if Mixon kind of had the Raandre uh

94:48receiving efficiency if if we could just like, you know, get a couple of those Montgomery breakaways cuz for a guy who

94:53came into the NFL as like kind of the slow plotter, even on the Lions, he had some really fun like breakaway runs

94:58where it's like, holy hell, like this isn't the Montgomery we thought. Uh so I could see I could see this being like a

95:04relatively positive pick even though uh the nerd inside of me just is like this is a dead zone back like do not draft

95:10him. Uh, but he kind of goes like after this like wide receiver clip is what I would say.

95:14>> Yeah, I you know, we almost made it through the entire show without me having to tout an old, but um you did

95:20bring up the one guy that is >> hard for me this year and I'm >> like I I think David Montgomery's a good

95:27pick and I I don't want to think that.

95:29>> Um the it's it's probably too much pattern matching for me, but the the obvious comparison is Joe Mixon in 2024.

95:37He comes over from Cincinnati. He he only played the one year for the Texans.

95:40He doesn't end up playing at all in 2025.

95:43He gets he only plays 14 games. But Joe Mixon, who I think people think Joe Mixon's a lot better than David

95:49Montgomery. I think he probably is, but Joe Mixon was never like super elite in a lot of the peripherals. He was never

95:54he was often a volume merchant, if you will, in in Cincinnati for a lot of years. And Dave Montgomery similar with

96:01the Bears and then into the Lions, but had some, you know, I think better peripherals than people maybe give him credit for. I don't It depends where

96:07you're at on Mixon and Montgomery, but I think of them as similar. And going to Houston, a similar Houston team, same coach, same mentality that I think

96:17they drove home last year as well cuz Woody Marks, the peripherals were awful last year, but they kept using him. Nick

96:22Chub, it was bad. They kept using him and they used Mix in a ton and it was they're like the the quintessential

96:29first rule do no harm coaching staff where they're like, I just want a running back who does what he needs to

96:34do. Well, David Montgomery is that guy and I think Mixon was that guy. So Mixon plays 14 games in 2024 at age 28.

96:40Montgomery is going to be 29 this year, one year older in his first year with the team. In 14 games, he got 52

96:46targets, 245 rush attempts. It's a massive amount of volume for 14 games. I don't think that Montgomery is going to get all that. He doesn't need to get all

96:55that at his ADP. I do think he's going to get a lot because I think Woody Marks is a lot worse than people realize. You

97:01mentioned the NAI stuff. Marks was fifth in the NFL in area last year by my numbers. They did throw to him

97:07vertically. I think Markx is still going to do some stuff in the passing game, but Marx, by the way, he's fifth fifth

97:12in yards while having only 36 targets.

97:14They don't actually throw to the backs a lot here. There are some concerns about that, but uh I do think that Montgomery

97:19is going to get basically everything he can handle and he's a lot cheaper. It's a It is a little bit like Saquon Barkley

97:26and James Cook and some of those guys where it's like this team doesn't throw to the backs a lot. They, you know, when

97:30they throw they throw shot plays. CJ Strat has not had a high running back target rate. I do think the quarterbacks

97:35are are a part of that element of it.

97:37But the fact that there's top five air yards for Woody Marks last year, he was fifth on just 36 targets. He's the only

97:43guy in the top, I don't know, 10 on my list that had fewer than 40 targets. Um or maybe, yeah, James Cook comes in

97:51right at the bottom and he had 39, but whatever. Uh he had the fewest targets of anyone in the top 10 for total air

97:58yards. He had 2.1 A dot. They were throwing to him vertically and he wasn't super efficient. I do think they'll still use him that way because that was

98:05his profile coming out marks that he was more of a receiving back. He was not a rushing prospect and then they ended up

98:11running him a ton last year and it was bad. I think they're going to give David Montgomery a ton of carries. I think

98:16they're going to give him the goal line work. He's always been good at goal line work. Joe Mixon scored 12 touchdowns for

98:21him two years ago. I mean, I'm really just looking at that and going, man, Montgomery is going to get plenty of

98:27work. They're going to use him. They only had nine rushing TDs last year. Um, the running backs only had six. Two

98:35quarterback TDs. Uh, Nico Collins had a rushing TD.

98:40They're going to want to fix that. They They had 11 the year prior with Joe Mixon. That's a very Demo Ryan. He's a

98:44defensive-minded head coach. He's a hard-headed guy. Like, that's why they brought in Dave Montgomery. And even if Dave Montgomery is inefficient, I think

98:50they're going to keep pounding Dave Montgomery the way they did Mixon two years ago, the way they did Woody. Um, as far as the Aryard stuff is concerned,

98:56I do think that's just sort of the cherry on top for him at his price where it's like, yeah, he may actually get a

99:03few fun um, usage opportunities as well vertically. The fact that that Kaylee did some of that last year is pretty optimistic. Um,

99:13and he's sort of the new toy like I was saying with Barkley, like you find interesting ways to use these new guys

99:19in your offense. Uh, Barkley got it in week one that year in 2024. he gets the vertical touchdown. Do they do some of

99:26that with David Montgomery early in the season? Maybe. And maybe that fades a little later. I don't know. But, um, I'm

99:32not like all in on David Montgomery at his age. There's obviously a lot of concerns. I do think he'll get some

99:38potentially intriguing chances of at big plays. And then he'll have the base of of volume at least in the rushing game.

99:45Um, not dissimilar to to Cook and and Barkley. He's obviously not on the same level as those guys in terms of what the

99:52efficiency could look like. That's why there's a huge ADP gap, but I'm way more interested in like, oh, this offense doesn't throw to the backs a lot, and

100:00I'm a little concerned about the overall targets for David Montgomery, but there could be some air yards here, and I think there's going to be a lot of

100:06rushing volume. I'm way interested in that in David Montgomery's ADP than I am at the end of the first round.

100:11>> Yeah, he he had a weird uh if you go back to his 2024 season, he turned 37 targets with 36 catches for 341 yards.

100:18He had 10.1 yak per reception and a 2.16 yards per out run which is not it's not girly but it's like small sample like

100:26you know for David Montgomery that's as good as that gets. So he can kind of marry the uh out of the backfield stuff

100:32and then if he gets some of these wheels I think that Montgomery could have some like fun spike weeks and be a fine pick.

100:37But that is going to do it for us today.

100:40Uh I want to thank you for hopping on here talking about airards for a while.

100:43This was a fun show where I said like this is kind of the the Josh Hermsmeire unrealized area something that I think I

100:49was just searching like Ben Gretch area.

100:51There's like an article from 2019 uh that you have talking about this. So I I think that sometimes we get too in the

100:57weeds on stuff like don't me wrong it's all good data. All data is fun or whatever. we start, you know, uh empty

101:03boxes, horizontal routes, and like the fourth quarter taking away garbage time.

101:07And it's like, all right, like how big are these samples that we are like really finally tooththing or uh finally tooth combing through them all. Uh so

101:16this was fun. Thank you for your time.

101:18Uh let people know where they can find you, what you got going on this summer, everything you want to plug uh and have

101:23going on because I'll I'll make sure I link Substack everything you got uh in the description in the comment section down below.

101:29>> Yeah, I appreciate that. Uh Substack newsletter is a premium newsletter uh behind a payw wall. Just always like to make that clear. But

101:36bengretch.substack.com I'll be writing a ton through August ranks all the good stuff that you need strategy articles and then in season the

101:47weekly stealing signals article on Mondays and Tuesdays that recaps everything. I watch all the games one by one and then recap it all and say what's

101:54signal, what's noise, what the key things were that I saw. Um, people seem to like it. Uh, Stealing Bananas podcast with Sean Seagull that we talked about

102:03on the show. The new Long View podcast with Jacob Sanders. Uh, just launched that one this week. Super excited about it. So, go, you know, subscribe to that

102:12and and listen to to me chat over there.

102:15>> I love it. I'll make sure it's all linked. I will say I'm not a big uh honestly like one of the reasons I

102:20started on YouTube is because I felt like starting from scratch as a writer, no one was reading my stuff. I'm also

102:24not the same level of writer as you or Jacob. But I think Jacob, you know, breaking through in this era, uh, as a

102:30writer, super impressive. I will say you and Jacob are like, you and Jacob are the only two substacks that I read

102:36routinely. They're both worth subscribing to. Uh, and then any article that Seagull puts out over on Roto Viz, I'll check out as well. Um, but thank

102:45you for everyone out there that has made it this far, that has watched this video, subscribe if you're new, leave a

102:50like, and I'll see you guys in the next one.

102:56This sounds [singing] right.

103:10I body like I'm frozen.

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