0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to
0:02the basement. I'm Ron and we are in the
0:05thick of it. There are injuries by
0:08weeks. We are scrambling to fill our
0:10flex spots and set competent lineups
0:13week by week. So, I am here to help you
0:15with that and I am going to give you my
0:17seven sneaky starts and stats for week
0:19eight of the fantasy football season.
0:21And this is where I'm going to go
0:22dumpster diving and find some players
0:25you can grab off of waiverss, throw in
0:27your lineup if you're down bad, and then
0:29also some stats to give you some
0:31confidence on some low-end wide receiver
0:34twos that I really like this week for
0:36fantasy football. You can use this to
0:37set your lineups, to play DFS, to make
0:40some bets. All of that across the board
0:43will be useful for this video. Of
0:45course, if you enjoy, leave a like,
0:47subscribe if you're new. And before we
0:48get into our first sneaky start in stat,
0:50let's talk about our results so far. In
0:53week six, we did decent. We didn't do
0:54amazing, but we did pretty dang well
0:57over on underdog. Of course, we put in a
0:59pick entry. We came up just short
1:00because of Khalif Raymond's I was going
1:02to say bum ass, but bum ass. Minus 26 on
1:06the consensus wide receiver 48. He did
1:08nothing for us. Everyone else came
1:10through though. We called Rashad White
1:12consensus RB33. He finishes as the RB10.
1:14Xavier Worthy inside the top 24. Kendra
1:17Miller was decent. Tyler Huntley
1:19consensus QB15. He finishes at the QB
1:2117. Not great. Higgby and Cle Raymond
1:23were the clear misses. Again, not bad,
1:25not amazing. We are dumpster diving
1:27here. Now, I will say our first couple
1:31aren't super desperate, but I want to
1:33give you the confidence to play Michael
1:34Wilson this week. I know since the
1:36Marvin Harrison trade, he has been
1:38brutal. He has been borderline
1:39unplayable.
1:41And the way this video goes is we're
1:43going to have a graphic here. It's going
1:45to have a stat on the graphic. Michael
1:46Wilson is my wide receiver, 18 this week
1:49on the road against Dallas. I'm not even
1:51that much higher than consensus, but
1:52again, I just want to give you guys an
1:53extra little nudge because when I was
1:55looking at at the stats,
1:58some things really popped for Michael
2:00Wilson. Now, of course, you'll see it
2:01says wide receiver 18th for Michael
2:03Wilson. If you want my entire rankings
2:05for week eight, that'll be over on the
2:07Patreon, patreon.com/rron
2:10Stewart. You can find in the description
2:11and the comments section below. Now,
2:12with Michael Wilson, here's the stat. He
2:16has a 2.16 yards per out run versus
2:18single high looks. That leads the
2:21Cardinals. Dallas play single high at
2:24the third highest rate in the NFL 60.6%
2:27of the time. A lot of these stats are
2:28from fantasy points uh data suite, which
2:31is an awesome awesome tool for research
2:34like this. So, essentially, I was just
2:35looking at
2:37who is playing the most single high. So,
2:38that's just one safety up. And that's
2:40because Dallas's run defense is so bad.
2:42They can only play with one safety in
2:44the middle of the field. And that really
2:45opens things up for Michael Wilson
2:47because I also was looking at what has
2:48been the difference for Michael Wilson.
2:50And the splits are pretty crazy. 2.16
2:52yards per out run for him versus single
2:54high looks.
2:56That climbs all the way down to 89 yards
2:59per out run versus two high.
3:01Essentially, if they go too high, the
3:02ball is going to Trey McBride. If they
3:04go one high, it's going to Michael
3:06Wilson, who has a 30% target share
3:07against single high safety looks down to
3:1015.4%. 4% when it is too high. That's
3:14pretty nuts. Now, he's going to be in a
3:16spot here where Dallas is going to play
3:18a lot of single high safety looks. He's
3:19going to be in a much better environment
3:22to score fantasy points. Of course,
3:23Dallas allows the seventh most fantasy
3:25points to opposing wide receivers. And
3:27then also, we have some environmental
3:28stuff. Shout out to Pat Thorman snaps
3:30and pace article over on established the
3:31run. Cardinals contest averaged nearly
3:33the same number of plays as when they
3:35led the league a year ago at 126.4 four
3:38and they have an identical 50 total
3:40points in those contests, eighth in the
3:43NFL. And then of course the Cowboys rank
3:45seventh in neutral pace over expected.
3:47First neutral play clock seconds in
3:48their contest are top 10 in both
3:51combined snaps and total points. So when
3:53the Cardinals and the Cowboys play
3:54football, there's a lot of points snaps
3:58up in tempo. This is one of the best
4:00game environments of the week. It is
4:02tied with the Bills and the Ravens for
4:04the highest overunder. I think this is
4:06where Michael Wilson gets back on track.
4:08Also, a decent, you know, if you want to
4:10buy Michael Wilson low, this would be
4:12the week to do it, unless his owner is
4:15watching this video. Now, I promise
4:17we're going to get deeper than this, but
4:18here are two kind of like luxury sneaky
4:20starts. Really, this is more the stats
4:22part of the video. Just when I was doing
4:23research, some guys that stuck out. DK
4:25Metaf,
4:27I'm only two spots higher than
4:29Consensus, but it's tough to be much
4:30higher than Consensus on the wide
4:32receiver 20. I don't want to put him up
4:33so you're starting him over guys like
4:34Garrett Wilson and stuff, but wide
4:36receiver 20 for DK Metaf is as good as
4:39it gets. The stat here is that he
4:40averages 2.19 yards per out run versus
4:43cover one. He leads the Steelers and the
4:46Cleveland Browns run cover one at the
4:47NFL's highest rate 43.6%
4:50of the time. Against every other
4:52coverage that isn't cover one, which by
4:55the way leaguewide, cover one is run
4:58about like 10 to 15% of the time. So the
5:00fact that against all other other
5:02coverages, he has a 0.98 yards per out
5:05run. DK Mechaf has essentially struggled
5:07against every coverage besides cover one
5:10and the way that this makes sense that
5:11the Browns are going to play a lot of
5:13cover one. Jeremy Bernard is actually on
5:14the other side of that where his yards
5:16per run plummets to 1.16 against cover
5:18one. So while I was tempted to say, oh
5:20maybe this will be a Jeremy Bernard
5:22game. No, cover one in this Brown
5:24secondary uniquely benefits DK Metaf. He
5:28has two career games against the Browns
5:29as a Steeler. So far, he has put up five
5:32catches for 115 yards and then four
5:33catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. He
5:35always plays well against these guys.
5:37Uh, I am a big fan of putting DK Mechaf
5:40in your lineup this week. Now, we're
5:43going to plug our nose and go dumpster
5:45diving here.
5:47Justice Hill, if you guys remember, we
5:49called this last year. He had a 28.7 PPR
5:52point game against the Kansas City
5:53Chiefs. We called that on this exact
5:56video a year ago.
5:59Is there a 100% chance he's going to hit
6:00a 20 plus PPR point game in this one?
6:03No. But I do really like Justice Hill.
6:05He's my RB37. I am eight spots ahead of
6:08consensus. He's going to be on the road
6:09against the Bills. Here's why I like
6:11this play this week. First of all,
6:13Buffalo is allowing the third most
6:15receiving points per game to opposing
6:17running backs. So that is your
6:18receptions, yards, receiving touchdowns.
6:20So just fantasy points through the air,
6:22third most in the NFL. We have the
6:24highest overunder of the weekend tied
6:26with the Cowboys and the Cardinals 54.5.
6:28The Ravens are underdog. So, they're
6:30going to be trailing against the Bills
6:32potentially and having to come from
6:34behind. And when that happens, that's
6:36when we see the Justice Hill 40%
6:38snapshare game and racks up like 50% of
6:40the routes. That would be huge for him.
6:43It just feels like the yearly Justice
6:45Hill game. And then on top of that, you
6:46have Lamar Jackson who is coming off of
6:48an injury. He's going to be less likely
6:50to take off and scramble and more likely
6:52to use his checkdowns and throw the ball
6:54to Justice Hill. I love Justice Hill to
6:56catch
6:58three or four balls, maybe get an
7:00explosive play, maybe find his way into
7:01the end zone and be a serviceable
7:04desperation RB2. That's always a good uh
7:07disclaimer here. Do not do not take out
7:10a Jonah Coleman or a Quinn Sean Judkins
7:12or a real RB2 for Justice Hill. But if
7:16you are looking around and you are
7:18debating like I don't know the George
7:19Hanis of the world or like a Sam per
7:22throw Justice Hill in your RB2 spot.
7:24There are worse things you can do. Now
7:26our fourth sneaky start is Mai Lemon.
7:29Keep it rolling with Mleman. He's my
7:30wide receiver for 29 this week. He's on
7:32the road against Washington. I am plus
7:35three ahead of consensus here and I
7:37really like what he offers to the
7:39Eagles. He had a 29% targets sprout run
7:42versus verse the blitz last week that
7:44led all Eagles and Washington blitzes at
7:46the second highest rate in the NFL. So
7:48he's kind of this perfect security
7:49blanket where Washington's going to
7:51blitz. Mailman will be the first look on
7:53those. And then on top of that,
7:54Washington runs two high safety looks at
7:56the second highest rate in the NFL,
7:58allowing the fourth most fantasy points
7:59per drop back on those plays. Mailman
8:02last week led the Eagles in yards
8:03against two high safety looks with 26
8:06yards. That was low, but that was also
8:07because Dallas runs uh the third lowest
8:11rate of
8:14two high looks like we talked about with
8:16the Cardinals. So, a lot of single high
8:18safety looks for Mai Lemon last week.
8:20Now, it's going to be too high. There's
8:21going to be a lot of uh like space
8:23underneath for Mai Lemon to operate. He
8:25led the Eagles in first read targets
8:27last week with seven. He scored 19.7 PPR
8:29points. I think we could see a nice
8:32little kind of like keep the breakout
8:34vibes rolling for Mai Lemon this week.
8:37Then we have a a stinky one. We have
8:40Travis Hunter. And here's what I'll say
8:42again. Do not do not bench real wide
8:46receiver options for Travis Hunter. He
8:48is my wide receiver 55. But we're 10
8:51spots higher than Consensus. He's at
8:52home versus the Colts. And this is
8:54essentially a talent bet. This is a
8:56quick hitter. I'm kind of labeling this
8:57as I didn't have the time to find a real
9:00stat for this. There really isn't a
9:01sample size for Travis Hunter to say,
9:03"Oh, he's better versus man coverage or
9:04zone coverage or against the Blitz,
9:06whatever." It's essentially a talent
9:07bet. When you look at like wide receiver
9:0950 and beyond by consensus, you're
9:11talking about Quentyn Johnston,
9:12Courtland Sutton, Jan Dodson, Canada
9:14Mumfield.
9:16With Travis Hunter, I am confident he is
9:19a better player than all of those wide
9:21receivers at this point.
9:24I like the idea that Travis Hunter,
9:26especially with Jacobe Myers. The big
9:27issue is Jacobe Myers off of the by-week
9:30logged two limited practices and then
9:32did not practice on Friday. There's a
9:33chance that Jacobe Myers misses this
9:36game on Sunday and Travis Hunter could
9:38be thrusted into a bigger role. Even
9:40like 10 to 20 routes for Travis Hunter,
9:42I just think when you look at all right,
9:43Travis Hunter versus Jan Dodson who's
9:45like the wide receiver 53, who's more
9:47likely to score 20 PPR points? To me,
9:49it's Travis Hunter where he could just
9:51come out there, even if the routes are
9:53low, they use him when he's out there.
9:55Uh, he could score a touchdown. I just
9:58think that once you get to a certain
10:00point and you're just hoping and
10:02praying, uh, why not bet on a superior
10:04talent to all the options in this range
10:07with a Travis Hunter, again, I'm not
10:09saying that you have to start him. I am
10:11just saying that if we are dumpster
10:12diving to the point where you are
10:13debating Konata Mumfield, why not just
10:16take a guy who I think is a much better
10:17player than Konado Mumfield in Travis
10:20Hunter? But of course, the floor is
10:21literally zero, but it's zero with
10:23pretty much all of the guys in this
10:24range. Then we have our streamers this
10:26week, AJ Barner, my Titan 16 at home
10:32verse Chicago. My streamer of the week,
10:34he is at a 79% route share this year.
10:36Last year, his biggest issue was he
10:38didn't run enough routes. to that 69%
10:39last year. That is now climbing up. The
10:42stat here is he has a 1.92 yards per out
10:44run versus the Blitz since 2025. And the
10:47Bears blitz at the sixth highest rate in
10:49the NFL. When teams don't blitz, that
10:521.92 yards per run and a 21% targets per
10:56run goes down to 1.13 yards per run and
10:58a 16% targets per run. So, he is very
11:00much a low A dot dump off guy against
11:04the Blitz and the Bears are going to be
11:05blitzing a ton, which means AJ Barner
11:08should be able to get some PPR scam
11:10action going underneath. Of course,
11:13teams also like to throw against the
11:14Bears with a 2.9% pass rate over
11:16expectation. I think we could see AJ
11:19Barner get a nice little 10 PPR point
11:21game here. Maybe sneak into the end zone
11:23as well. Something to remember with AJ
11:25Barner, we haven't seen it a ton yet,
11:27but he is the tush push guy. There's
11:29always a chance that the Seahawks find
11:30themselves on like the half yard line
11:32and they give it to AJ Barner on a tush
11:34push. That is always in the range of
11:36outcomes. Then our quarterback streamer
11:38this week, Gino Smith. Uh this one is
11:42ugly, right? You never want to start
11:44Gino Smith in your lineup, but he's my
11:46QB18 this week. He's at home verse the
11:49Raiders. The Raiders are allowing the
11:50fifth most fantasy points to
11:51quarterbacks. We're coming off a three
11:53touchdown game for Gino Smith. I think
11:55we see a Garrett Wilson sneaky wheel or
11:57squeaky wheel game as well where he's
11:59complaining to the media and he's
12:00complaining to the coaches on the
12:01sideline. They're going to get Garrett
12:03Wilson like 10 plus targets in this
12:04game. They're going to throw the ball a
12:06ton. It looks like Bree Hall won't play
12:08in this game. So, I think they're going
12:09to throw the ball even more because of
12:10that. It's all there. Gino Smith should
12:12be like a 16point guy this week would be
12:14my guess. Uh but Gino Smith, you got to
12:17plug your nose and throw him in your QB1
12:20spot if you are looking for a streamer.
12:23And then we take up all of these. We get
12:25a pick them entry going over on
12:27Underdog. Of course, make sure you check
12:28out Underdog. I have a promo code Ron
12:31with a link in the description.
12:33Let's actually move this over. You get a
12:35$10 bonus entry for 10 days over there.
12:37We of course used our boost builder
12:40here. Michael Wilson higher than 59 and
12:42a half receiving yards. DK Metaf 55
12:44receiving yards. Justice Hill two
12:46receptions. Gino Smith 225 passing
12:49yards. Can we for the first time this
12:51year in week eight finally get a W on
12:54one of these? I hope so. Um, of course
12:57follow that responsibly. Uh, just
12:59something fun to ride and sweat out. I
13:02also made it so these are also they wrap
13:04up before the prime time game. That's
13:06why I didn't have like AJ Barner uh or
13:08any of the other guys that play in prime
13:10time. I'm trying to think of who else
13:11plays in prime. I think it's literally
13:12just AJ Barner uh now that I'm looking
13:15at it. But oh uh Mai Lemon of course
13:17plays in prime time as well. But that's
13:19going to do it for us today. Our seven
13:21sneaky starts and stats for week eight.
13:24Trying to think if I have anything else
13:25on top of the dome. I I will say go out
13:28and stash Travis Hunter. Even if you're
13:30not going to play him, is there any
13:32other stashes I've been looking at?
13:35Uh I'd say also if Jonathan Brooks is
13:37out there and you have an IR spot, grab
13:39Jonathan Brooks. Uh, and then yeah, I
13:42and I will say if Travis Hunter's not
13:44available, grab Josh Cameron, too. Josh
13:46Cameron, the rookie we've been following
13:47on the rookie receiver report. He's also
13:48a guy who could kind of break out here
13:51for the Jaguars. So, just something to
13:54think about. Just thinking if there's
13:55any other stashes I like as well because
13:59it is always good to get ahead of the
14:01market. Someone that I actually stashed
14:02in Yuri League, a superflex league. If
14:04you're downbat at quarterback, like I
14:05lost Jaylen Herz and in a superflex
14:08reddraft league, it's impossible to
14:09acquire quarterback. So, I just said
14:10screw it.
14:12I'm going to grab Carson Beck. Uh, there
14:14is a chance, I know that we did just
14:15talk about Michael Wilson, but there is
14:17a chance that Jacobe Brassette, if he
14:19can't light it up against Dallas, uh,
14:21that he gets benched for Carson Beck
14:22because Carson Beck had an issue last
14:23week where he had back spasms and then
14:26he got held out of practice. And I don't
14:27think that he was active for the game,
14:28but Carson Beck got a full practice in
14:31on Friday. I believe he's no longer on
14:32the injury report. So, Carson Beck is
14:34available. I'm not saying that Jacobe
14:36Brassette's going to get benched. I'm
14:37just saying Carson Beck could be
14:39starting sooner than later for the
14:42Cardinals. But that's going to do it for
14:43us today. Appreciate you guys watching
14:46and I'll see y'all in the next one.
15:04Ice cold
15:07ice around my body.
