0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and this is my favorite video we do every single football season. These are my top 10
0:08fantasy football takeaways and lessons learned from week one. As we look ahead to week two, we are going to cover all
0:15of the news and notes from around the league along with the usage, data, trends, the rookie receiver report, the world famous rookie running back
0:22carousel, give you everything you need to know to dominate in fantasy football week in and week out. First up, the headliner here is going to be the Rookie
0:33Receiver report. And what I will say is that if you come to this channel for the Rookie Receiver report, know that I
0:37enjoy it just as much as you do. But also know that we are bringing this heat every single week. Make sure you are
0:44subscribed. Make sure you leave a like on the video. If you are here for the Rookie Receiver Report, and of course,
0:48the Rookie Receiver Report is sponsored by Underdog. When you sign up and use promo code Ron, you will get a 50%
0:56deposit match and you have the keep your million promo. Essentially, there are a ton of promos running for the NFL. There
1:03are drafts in plenty of states. You have the highs or lowers. You have everything you could possibly need to have some fun
1:08this football season. Make sure you check it out. Underdog. Use promo code Ron. I have a link in the description and the comment section below. Now, you
1:15might ask yourself, and I do understand there's going to be some people here that come to the Ron Stewart channel and
1:20are like, "What the hell is the Rookie Receiver report?" And here is what it is. First of all, I want to give you the
1:25why before I give you the what. We like the rookie receiver report because every single year, rookies end up being league
1:31winners down the stretch of a fantasy football season. Even last year, the late season league winners, you had Trevian Henderson, you had Ashton Genty.
1:38Not that Ashen Genty was a league winner, but really more RJ Harvey, Coloulston Lovelin was on this list.
1:42Harold Fannon was on this list last year. Kyle Madungai as well. And you go into previous years, guys who had 16
1:48plus points per game from weeks nine on at wide receiver. In specific here, you have Juju Smith Schustster, Tank Dell, Elijah Moore, guys who weren't even
1:58studs that came out of nowhere. Jayen Reed, Christian Watson in his year as well. Chase Clayool in his year. all of
2:04these guys. Rashi Rice was a guy that we actually were talking about and saying, "Please let this guy run more routes. Run more
2:12routes." And then down the stretch, he was a league winner. So, that is what this video is for. We have every rookie
2:18wide receiver and tight end here that ran 10 or more routes this week. We have them sorted by route percentage. So,
2:25that is on a percentage basis. If a team has a pass play, are you running a route? Essentially, anything over like
2:3190% means you are a starting wide receiver for your team. Points per game, that's easy. Your PPR output, targets per game or targets per out run, we want
2:39volume. Essentially, these are three route run metrics. Targets per out run, yards per run, first downs per out run.
2:46And what we are trying to do is on a per routeout basis, how are you doing in terms of earning target volume,
2:53producing efficiency, and then moving the chains within your offense? Anything over a 20% targets per out run is super strong. Anything over a two yards per
3:01run is strong. Anything over a 10% first downs per run is strong. And then PFF grade, this is historic, and I know I
3:07know people have their opinions on PFF, but historically for rookie wide receivers, PFF grade has had a very strong correlation to finding the next
3:15studs. Guys who had 80 plus PF grades in years past. Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Ave, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, even all the way
3:23back to Tyreek Hill and all of these players. Puka Nakua of course that were studs as rookies. and it just kind of
3:29stamps them. If you can get to an 80 plus PFF grade, you are stamped. But of course, it's very early. And that is
3:34definitely a disclaimer here is that it is week one. There are not sweeping conclusions we can make here with the rookie receivers. But this is where we
3:41can start to kind of cast our lines if we're fishing. Put out some lines and see if there's any biters. Right? We
3:48have we have some signal. We have some players we're interested in, but it's not no week one box score for a rookie
3:54is going to be, "Oh my god, this is the next Rashi Rice." It's just these are a couple of guys who could be pretty
3:59sweet. So, let's kind of jump around here and even talk about guys because you have to remember there are a lot of
4:03guys on this list that we might have drafted in the fifth or sixth or seventh or eighth round. And as much as we're
4:10looking for waiverwire guys, we're also looking to keep tabs on the players that we drafted. Right, speaking of, let's start with the Cleveland Browns
4:18receivers. We have Denzel Boston and we have Casey Conpsion. I have them both highlighted here. And let's start with Denzel Boston. He is the starting wide
4:26receiver one for the Browns. Now, of course, what that really means that he is a big-bodied ex receiver playing on the perimeter, and he is going to be the
4:32main guy in two wide receiver sets, in one wide receiver sets, even he is the guy on the perimeter. He made one really
4:41awesome play. Uh it was a deep ball from Deshun Watson, but outside of that, there wasn't much to show here. That's
4:47going to that one big play is going to boost his points per game. It's going to boost his yards per run. It's a very
4:54strong sample. Outside of that, he wasn't a big target earner. I actually came away more impressed with Casey Conpsion, which is a little bit funky,
5:02right? Because we're talking about a player here where with Denzel Boston and Casey Conpsion, one of them scored a touchdown. One of them played 97% of the
5:10routes. Why am I more impressed with Conpsion? Well, he in his role of 65% of the routes. He hit all of
5:19the thresholds we're looking for. I just listed them out. He hit a 20% target per run, two plus yards per route run, and a
5:2410% plus first downs per run. Yes. Was it on a limited sample? Sure. But we know with rookies, the route shares are
5:30going to grow. So, I think that he's in a spot here where if he can get to our 85% 90% plus route share. I think
5:36Conpsion can be a guy you can start on a week- toeek basis, whereas Denzel Boston for now is more of a perimeter receiver
5:43that caught one deep ball, which is great. It's great to see him produce score a touchdown, but week to week, it's going to be a little bit more
5:49tricky. He had just two catches on the day, one of them being the long touchdown, whereas Conpsion had a little bit more usage on a per basis. He had
5:58four catches total for 43 yards, which again on 65% of the routes, we will absolutely take it. Now, moving on from
6:04that, we will talk about a player that I was kind of alluding to, a player we drafted in the sixth round this year,
6:11Carnell Tate, as an interesting spot here. And it's less about Carnell Tate than it is just this offense is terrible. Uh, I mean, maybe it'll look
6:20better, but it was against the Jets. I mean, I I I'm a Jets fan, but I'm not going to sit here and tell you this is a
6:24good defense by any stretch. Uh, their corners, especially after trading away S Garner, losing DJ Reed to the Lions a couple years ago. It's really nothing. I
6:31mean, Ma Fitzpatrick is a nickel guy.
6:33They draft D'Angelo Ponds, who is a nickel guy. On the perimeter, it's like AZ Thomas.
6:40That's kind of it. It's like AZ Thomas.
6:42There's Quant Stiggers is out. There's maybe like one guy I'm missing, but it's not a good defense really. Uh, and I
6:49mean I'm sort of talking about the perimeter corners here, but I guess the D line's all you can really point to,
6:54but this was supposed to be one of the defenses where it's like, okay, the Titans should be decent here. The offense was bad. There was fumbles. Cam
7:00Ward looked bad. Uh, so Carnell Tate, I mean, he's a full-time receiver. The per out efficiency stuff is really bad, but
7:06again, it's a oneame sample, but it's tough to say Carninal Tate looks that much different than like Denzel Boston, a perimeter receiver
7:14that's not really earning targets at a high rate. He put up six targets, four catches, 38 yards, and a bad offense,
7:19similar to Denzel Boston. I'm not giving up on Carninal Tate just yet. His 22% target share was tied with Juan Del
7:25Robinson for the team lead. But at home against the Jets, this team just was flat. I think that they were trailing
7:30for like 97% of the game. Uh I will say if you want something to hang your hat on or to just cling on to in terms of
7:38hope, it's that the Jets really sat on the ball. They had a they had one drive where they they held the ball for 15
7:43minutes and then kicked a field goal.
7:45Uh, so there wasn't a lot of play volume in this one, but kind of tape for now is a stash and not a guy that I'm looking
7:51to start by any means. Then we will talk about some exciting players here. The Miami Dolphins wide receivers. We have Caleb Douglas, we have Chris Bell, and
8:00we have Kevin Coleman. I'll be straight up, Kevin Coleman is kind of a zero. Uh, no production, 38% route share. It's
8:07like nothing really happened for him.
8:08He's not somebody I'm really thinking about. Caleb Douglas, though, is absolutely going to be on tomorrow's Waverwire show. So he runs 86% of the
8:15routes behind only Boston and Carnell Tate 14 points and then he shows target earning with 18%. He shows yards per run
8:24efficiency with 2.94 9.4% first downs per run just under our 10% plus barrier and then a 75 PF grade. That is strong.
8:32This is a full-time wide receiver. He crushed everything on a per out basis.
8:35He had seven targets, five catches, 94 yards, a 24% target share, two missed tackles forced on his five receptions here. The only limiting factor is Malik
8:44Willis. Only 15 completions on 27 attempts, 220 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception. It's really tough to carve out a meaningful
8:53role when your quarterback is going to be bottom five in pretty much all passing categories, but I am a little bit excited about Caleb Douglas. I
9:00wouldn't go overboard. I wouldn't go crazy about Caleb Douglas, but he's showing something is what I'll say. He's a round three pick. Very interesting
9:06player. Uh then we can talk about Chris Bell coming off the ACL. I I wouldn't read too much into this. Yes, it wasn't
9:12good on a per out basis. I'm still stashing him. I think the 54% route share will climb. I think a lot of these
9:17metrics will climb as well. It was his first game off an ACL tear. You know, yes, he showed some promise in preseason
9:24games, but I think it's still going to be a bumpy road for Chris Bell. And then again, Kevin Coleman, I am all set
9:30there. Then we'll talk about again, similar to Tate, you know, these three Dolphins guys are all more waver fodder.
9:35We have Mai Lemon here. Mai Lemon is a really tricky one to wrestle with.
9:41First of all, 85% of the routes is a massive W. If you if you told me before the season that Mai Lemon was going to
9:47run 85% of the routes in week one, I probably would have bumped him up a round or two in my rankings. But
9:53actually, no, let's stay with the good stuff for a second. He ran just four routes less than Dvonte Smith. He had
9:58just one less target than Devonte Smith.
9:59Now, of course, Devonte Smith didn't play that well, but to have four targets, 85% of the routes in your rookie debut, remember this was a guy
10:08that was a slot only rookie, so could have been squeezed in a similar fashion to what we've been dealing with Jaden
10:13Reed or Josh DS in years past. And then also a guy who missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury.
10:22Right away, he is out there on 85% of the pass plays. That's a huge deal. But then we have a situation here where his
10:28A dot was minus.3. To put in perspective, Devon Achan's A dot this week was 2.3. So Mai Lemon was purely a
10:35running back like gadget style play here. He wasn't efficient on these targets, which gives me some it's almost better that he was so inefficient on
10:44these gadgety targets because I think that they're going to let him play receiver and not give him minus.3 a dot targets with uh minus.17 yards per run
10:54is just ridiculous. I wouldn't go crazy burying Mai Lemon. I think it's a positive that he played as much as he
10:59did and that he earned as many targets as he did. But of course, like these gadget targets are not good for fantasy
11:07football. He's essentially he's essentially rookie Wondale Robinson. So, we'll see where that goes from there.
11:14And then we'll talk about the other number one waiverwire ad of this week.
11:18For me, the number one waiverwire ads are, or at least when it comes to the rookie receiver report, I, you know, of
11:23course, we're going to talk about Jaylen Coker and Caitlin Black and all those guys, but we talk about the guys that
11:27are for deeper leagues, it's Caleb Douglas, and then it's going to be Antonio Williams. Antonio Williams all the way down here at the bottom. Only
11:3429% of the routes, but he really started to flash down the stretch of this game as Washington started to try and mount
11:40this comeback. It coincided as well with Okonquo getting hurt. He comes in, Antonio Williams, and is just absolutely nailless. He turns just 11 routes, which
11:48is crazy. He turns 11 routes into four catches, 64 yards, a touchdown. On those four catches, all four of them were
11:56first downs. And he had a perfect passer rating when targeted. Now, of course, we're talking about 11 routes. But being able to turn 11 routes into a real four
12:05for 64, a touchdown, moving the chains, like being a real steel wide receiver is a really big deal to me. Now, I'm not
12:12going to get crazy about these. I mean, he's the leading scorer at on the rookie receiver report this week. That should
12:16be a big deal. But, you know, none of these parametrics are going to hold. He gets a crazy good PFF grade. But, again,
12:22it's all small sample stuff, but it's enough of a of a flash here that I'm very interested. And there is room for
12:27his route share to grow here. He showed flashes here. And this is the whole idea of the rookie receiver report that you
12:32show flashes and then every week, right, we go to week two route share, we go to week three route share, we go to week
12:37four, and these things climb. Antonio Williams has room to climb. Stfan Digs is doing the same thing he did last year
12:44where he is a part-time receiver. He only ran 66% of the routes yesterday despite having the touchdown and producing. We're not going to get to the
12:52Washington Commander much in this video.
12:54So that's kind of a takeaway there is that Diggs is still a part-time player.
12:57McLaren is the one with a 90% plus route share. And then in third is Diami Brown with 61% of the routes. So Dame Brown
13:04not not a very good receiver. Okonquo banged up. The rest of these Washington receivers aren't very good. And then Diggs is a part-time player. There is
13:12absolutely a world by week seven, week eight, week nine where Antonio Williams actually leaps to fawn Diggs and starts delivering like a 75% plus route share
13:21and takes away all of the Diami Brown stuff. That's what you're hoping for with Antonio Williams, I think it's in his range. I actually, for as much as
13:27Washington struggled against Philly, I think Philly is just a really good team.
13:30I think they actually showed some flashes. They looked decent. Jaden Daniels looked good in this game as well. So, if Antonio Williams can find
13:35his way as a legit option in this offense, I think he has some real upside here. Then, we'll cover the rest of
13:41these players. Nothing that crazy here.
13:43You have Malachi Fields on prime time.
13:46Didn't really do much. Part-time player at 62% of the routes, but he did earn a 19% targets per out run. I think that's
13:52all solid. There is plenty of room here where he's competing with, I guess, Darnell Mooney and Odo Beckham Jr. for perimeter wide receiver routes. I think
14:00that that can absolutely grow. But to what extent it is good though that he is commanding targets unlike the other two
14:07perimeter wide receivers and Ted Hurst and Bryce Lance uh both at 70% of the route so they are real players in their
14:12offenses but really doing more of cardio when we talk about 10% or less targets per out run. These are guys that I'm not
14:18super interested in. I think that Ted Hurst's usage will come down once Jaylen McMillan comes back and then Bryce Lance's usage will come down once Jordan
14:27Tyson is back. Then you have Jacobe Lane. This one really sucks. 18% targets per out run, had a touchdown that got
14:33called back, and then he fractures his wrist. I really don't have any info as of right now on how long this is going
14:40to be an issue for him, but it is not good. Uh, then we have Kenyan Sadik.
14:44This is actually a positive one for Kenyan Sadi. Uh, he goes out here 46% of the routes. Uh, highest for any tight
14:51end on the week. That's pretty solid.
14:53And then on top of that, 11.4 points.
14:55Now, of course, it's because he scored a touchdown, but he scored a touchdown on a handoff where he hit 20 plus miles per
15:01hour, which is absurd. And it's also just a really good sign that they want the ball in Kenyan Sadi's hands. So much
15:09so that they gave it to him inside the 10 yard line on like a end round carry where they let him get up to 20 miles
15:15per hour and beat the whole defense to the edge. 25% targets per out run. He showed efficiency with 1.75 yards per or
15:21yeah, yards per run. And remember, these two numbers aren't affected by his touchdown carry because that's a rush.
15:27So, this is somebody that was hurt during the offseason ramping his way up.
15:32And right away, they want him to be a part of the offense. And someone we're not going to talk about here cuz he
15:36didn't run 10 or more routes is Omar Cooper. He actually made a big play where he made like two people miss and
15:41looked pretty good. He gets banged up with an ankle injury. And now that opens Kenyan Sadi to get to 70% plus of the
15:49routes and be a real tight end in fantasy football. Of course, the bar for production at tight end is much lower.
15:54So, even being on the Jets who might not be the best offense in the world. We saw with Fannon last year and we saw it with
15:59Tyler Warren. Well, I guess Tyler Warren, the Colts were awesome, but really more down the stretch of you can find ways to be relevant even if you're
16:06in a bad offense when it comes to playing tight end. Uh, and then we have Eli Rarin and Nate Borers. I I screw
16:14that up every time. Nothing to see here.
16:17Uh Rarin scores a touchdown, but 24% of the routes behind Hunter Henry is not going to get it done. Uh 10% targets per
16:23run, not going to get it done. Same thing with uh the Jaguars tight end Bor Kerser. Uh 10% targets per out run. It's
16:31the Brett Strange show there. And it's the Hunter Henry show in New England.
16:35Now that we got the rookie receiver report out of the way, felt good to finally get that done for week one. Uh,
16:45we have our takeaways. So, this is just the rest of this video is kind of just me going around the league and talking
16:51about what stuck out as key takeaways, nuggets, stats, all of the good stuff you could possibly want for fantasy football. And our second takeaway here,
17:02the first takeaway being the rookie receiver report. And I will be honest, it's week one, so I I usually try and
17:06keep it to like around 10 takeaways or lessons learned or whatever notes.
17:12We went way over. It's week one. and I want to talk about everything I want to talk about. So, we are going to talk
17:16about first, relax. All right, relax.
17:20Don't go crazy if you lost your week one matchup. Don't go crazy if your Jamar Chase put up three points. This is a
17:27really good tweet that I always try and show from Adam Harstad to me, one of the OGs of fantasy football over on Football
17:33Guys. He has done a study essentially every year and what he found is that ADP right Cooper Adams on the bottom
17:41here for what it's worth. when I did a study on it two years ago, I found that reddraft ADP is more predictive of rest
17:45of season scoring than current season scoring up until after week four. So, weeks one through three until until I come to you guys after week four. So,
17:53that'll be my week five lessons learned and takeaways.
17:57ADP is stronger than the production happening right now, which means just take a breath. If your first round pick didn't do what you wanted them to do, or
18:04if your team didn't score how you wanted it to score, there is a lot of ball left. This is a good tweet from Matt
18:10Harmon as well showing that there is a lot of ball left. Last year, Justin Fields was a was the QB1. Aaron Jones
18:15and Bill were top 12 running backs. Keon was the wide receiver four. Calvin Austin and Maris Brown were great. Noah Fant was great. There's a lot of ball.
18:22There's a lot of things that are going to happen in this game. Relax, stay the course. Nothing is sticky until after
18:29week four. And then, of course, the one situation everyone is kind of freaking out about is the Bears passing game. You
18:36have Colston Loveland, you have Luther Burden, you have Roman Dunes, all not really doing much. Uh, I will say as well, other teams that take a breath on,
18:44the Bengals, they're going to be fine.
18:45They always start out slow. Uh, the Bears receivers, I feel good about the Rams still. I feel good about the Eagles
18:50still. I feel good about the Bucks still. Uh, just sort of running through offenses that had high expectations that didn't really do all that well. I would
18:57throw Washington in there as well, playing against a really tough Eagles team. Now, with the Bears in particular, and this is still essentially under the
19:05umbrella of my second takeaway being, let's relax and talk about some of these underperformers and why I wouldn't freak out. Uh, here we have Zay Denady kind of
19:13walking us through it where Coloulston Lovelin 92% route share, amazing 13.5 AOT. He's going to be absolutely fine. Coloulston Lovelin is
19:23the biggest boow candidate of all time.
19:26Luther Burton 71% route share, 6.8 A dot. That's not great. He did have a two plus yards per run. His targets per run
19:33only of 18.5%.
19:35Burton wasn't a super positive day, but what I'll say is is that if this Bears offense is going to be this good, there
19:41is also a chance Luther Burton uh is a guy that's getting eased in off of the offseason groin injury and maybe that
19:47was part of the case here. I think very simply, this Khalif Raymond 50% route share, 35% target share isn't going to
19:55hold. And then Roman Dun came into this game banged up, so I wouldn't hold that against him. And then you have Jack
19:59Miller on the bottom here. Just kind of showing again this usage for Lovelin is really, really strong. I wouldn't get too bogged down
20:08in the details of how this thing splits out on a week- toeek basis. I think when we talk about this Bears offense, we're
20:14going to score so many points that we're going to get to a a spot here where every single week it's going to be
20:21somebody's turn to have the uh DeAndre Swift explosion, the Kyle Manungai explosion, the Caleb Williams explosion.
20:28it it's just going to be like a game of whackable and I know it sucks right now to be on the outside looking in after
20:32week one but I think everyone is going to get their fair share. Maybe there's one guy that is going to be the odd man
20:38out. My guess would be it's going to be Luther Burton or Roma Dunay. U but I think that it's an offense you want
20:45pieces of. Then we'll talk about as the last pillar of our relax takeaway is some regression candidates. So guys that maybe left some points on the field.
20:56This is when looking at expected points per game. So volume uh in terms of like your carries, your inside the five
21:02carries, your targets, how much points per game you should be putting up. And then anybody who underperformed that by three or more is on this list. Anybody
21:09who's expected to put up 12 or more points per game and then came under that by three or more points. I will say,
21:16we'll talk about Matthew Golden in a second, but Matthew Golden blew the doors off of everybody. He doesn't really count. ETN doesn't really count
21:22either, but Puka, he should have had 16 plus points per game or 16 plus points in week one. He of course didn't.
21:28Leaporta and Jameson Williams should have had much better days. Uh Tyler Alier should have probably had a touchdown at some point in that game.
21:35Malik Washington was actually a full-time receiver for the Dolphins. So, as much as we talked about the rookies, I'm not as into Malik Washington. I'd
21:40rather bet on the unknown of the rookies, but he's interesting. Uh I think better days are ahead for Metaf, who had minus 7.4 fantasy points over
21:47expected. And same deal with Jaden Reed, who also performed way below his expectation. But the issue with Jaden Reed is that he finds himself in a
21:56receiver room with Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Now, this is going to be our third takeaway, which are some wide receiver rotations I was really
22:05eager to see in week one. First up with the Packers, it is 80% of the routes or more for Golden Watson. Reed is on the
22:13outside looking in. 63% of the routes is not going to cut it. He is a boom bust flex play at best. Now, he still did
22:19have enough volume here with an 18% target share that he should have had more than five PPR points, but it's going to be really tough to bet on him
22:30week in and week out. Now, there might be a change to the equation here. A lot of the Jaden Reed routes and targets
22:36actually went to Janu Smith, which is really upsetting. And maybe as Craft gets healthier, they decide to go away from the John Smith stuff. But John
22:44Smith is going to be a real issue for Jaden Reed here. So I would say with Jayen Reed as someone that drafted a lot
22:48of him, not feeling the best here. But Matthew Golden on the other side, he is the biggest winner here. I think him and
22:55Christian Watson, of course, Christian Watson 30 plus bomb. Someone that we loved as a breakout candidate. He looked really good. I will say 16 yard ADOT, we
23:03really want that to start coming down a little bit, but still big play threat.
23:07as long as he's healthy, he is someone who's going to be in the mix as a high-end wide receiver, too, with like
23:11monster monster upside. But then Matthew Golden, these are things I have never in my life seen Matthew Golden do. A 30% plus
23:20target share. I don't know. I mean, I don't have the stats off hand, but I would be shocked if he ever had a game
23:25in college with a 30% plus target share.
23:28Uh 12.2 yard ADOT. That's actually kind of the area of the field I was hoping for Christian Watson to get to. So, I
23:35think Matthew Golden has a really solid role. He's a full-time receiver on what I think is going to be a more pass heavy
23:41Green Bay Packers. This was a Packers team who threw the ball 42 times, the second highest pass attempt total of the
23:46week. Obviously, that's not going to stick, but they were 24th in pass attempts per game last year. If that could creep up to top 10, top 15, I
23:54think that's a very big deal for the pass catchers on this team. Then we have the Jaguars wide receivers here. uh
24:01where this one was another one where if you could tell me pre-season a rotation between wide receivers, this would be one, right? Like if I had one
24:12genie wish of like what the hell is going to happen in this season, it would be how do the Jaguars receivers shake
24:17out? Does Parker Washington actually carry on his momentum? Does I mean, what is even the next thing?
24:24Travis Hunter, is Travis Hunter actually going to be a thing? There's just a lot of things happening for the Jaguars here. And really what it came down to is
24:32Parker Washington supremacy. He is the wide receiver one. He is the alpha. He had a 29% target share. He had the same
24:38amount of targets as Jacobe Myers and Brian Thomas combined. It is Parker Washington and then it's everyone else.
24:43Brian Thomas runs only 56% of the routes. I will say he did leave this game with a shoulder injury. So don't
24:48get too crazy about Brian Thomas.
24:51But still, him and Jacobe Myers are just like boom bust flex players. They're going to run somewhere in the range of
24:5570 to 80% plus of the routes. Sometimes they'll cut a touchdown like Jacobe Myers did. Sometimes they'll leave the game early and not really amount to
25:03anything like Brian Thomas did. But 21% targets per run for Brian Thomas is good, but him already being banged up is
25:09bad. Uh I will say Parker Washington, his 17g game pace over his last 10 games played, that's including the playoffs and last
25:1710 games played is a really big sample.
25:1985 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 10 receiving touchdowns, 16.4 points per game, which would have been the wide receiver seven last year. I think at
25:27this point he is a fringe wide receiver one moving forward in a set and forget wide receiver Parker Washington. Then the third receiver rotation and final
25:36receiver rotation that I was eager to see in week one was the Colts.
25:42We have been begging and pleading similar to Jaden Reed. Can we finally get Josh DS to run the amount of routes
25:48we are looking for and he does but then he doesn't earn the target. A guy who on a per route basis has been a monster at
25:56target earning and efficiency and instead he does the opposite yesterday.
26:01He has a 94% route share. Now I will say all of these tables are from myfantylife.com. That is going to be
26:08Matthew Barry's website. Uh I do just want to shout them out. We have a great tool kind of powered by Dwayne McFarland
26:14over there. Josh DS 94% route share.
26:17That was his first time over a 90% route share since week 16 of his rookie year three years ago.
26:25Huge W, fulltime receiver, 9% targets per out run was one of just three times since his rookie year where he failed to hit a 10% or better targets
26:37per run. The only takeaway I really have here is better days are ahead. We got the route share we hoped for with Josh
26:44DS. The usage just wasn't there. He was spammed on the first drive and then they just went away from him for whatever
26:48reason. I think that's going to bounce back here. Keenan Allen wasn't much of a issue here in terms of route share. Yes,
26:56did he command targets, but I assume that Josh DS will as well. Josh Downs is somebody that is going to command
27:01targets at all times. If he's going to run 90% plus of the routes, I think that is a huge deal. And I think Alec Pierce
27:07is going to work his way up to being a full-time wide receiver as well. And then we're going to get less of those
27:12Laquan Treadwell routes. On top of that, now we have my fourth takeaway, which is let's talk about some tight ends here.
27:20We have two guys that I think are going to be moving themselves into the conversation for potentially top five tight ends rest of season. Of course,
27:30it's McBride and then it's Leland. And I love Lovelin, but something's going to have to happen very soon in terms of him
27:38scoring points. And then when it comes to like tight end three, I mean, you have Bowowers coming off injury. Tyler Warren looked fine. Uh, we didn't touch
27:45on with the Denzel Boston stuff, but as the routes climb for Casey Conpsion, I think Harold Fannon is going to be a
27:50little bit spooky there at tight end.
27:51Uh, Tucker Craft is going to ramp up. KD will ramp up. I'm not really worried about them.
27:56But Isaiah Likely and Don Concincaid are squarely in the mix for top six tight ends rest of season. And if we were
28:04reddrafting today, I would have them in that tier of, you know, your essentially during the draft season it was Leaporta, Craft, Pitts, Fannon in any order you
28:13wanted. Um, I now think that you can kind of relegate Pitts until quarterback play is better. You can probably bump down Fannon a half tier. Like honestly,
28:21all those guys as craft is ramping up. I think likely and concaid should kind of be leaprogging them and taking their
28:27place. Likely here last night, we'll talk about the uh prime time game a little bit here where likely here's the thing about likely and conceded. The
28:34reason why I have the red box around route share is we need these guys to run routes. In a perfect world, it's like
28:39McBride. McBride running 87% of the routes is awesome. That is amazing tight end usage. Of course, with Trey McBride, that's how how it's going to work. But
28:48you can see with Likely and Concade, especially as these tweener tight ends, right? McBride's get a lot of love, but he can block really well. Him, KD,
28:56Craft, that's why you're going to get a lot of routes with those guys. With Likely and Concaid, you have to kind of make up for
29:03lost time. They can't play every down to down as the main tight end, especially both of them have like Isaiah likely has
29:10uh Theo Johnson next to him. You have with Don Kade, you have Jackson Hall, one of the best blocking tight ends in
29:16the NFL. Dassa Knox as well. So you're going to get a lot of rotation here. But if they can make an impact when they're
29:20on the field, right, with a 35% targets per run for Isaiah likely, 27% targets per run for Don Concincaid and then 18
29:27PPR points for Concaid, 25.8 for Likely.
29:30Likely scores a touchdown or two. I think that he had all of the end zone targets for his team this week. Just
29:35awesome usage. He looked amazing. Now Likely does have a history of having the smash game in week one and then reverting back, but he no longer has
29:43Mark Andrews competing with targets. He was already playing with Malik Neighbors in this game. Neighbors is going to ramp up here, right? Neighbors only had a 71%
29:51route share, but he did have a 32% target share. So, he still made his impact felt. I just think that when we
29:57talk about tight ends and every year we have an emphasis on being a top two target earner on your offense after
30:03neighbors, it's likely and I think that he's going to be really much involved on a week- toeek basis as an awesome pick.
30:08If you took likely in your draft, you should feel awesome about your tight end spot. I will say kind of piggybacking on
30:14the prime time game, I came away really impressed with Jackson Dart, which is why I'm also into Isaiah likely even more that I think
30:22Dart read the entire field, took his time in the pocket, took his checkdowns here and there. Like he pretty much took
30:28his checkdowns all the way into a Devin Singleary uh catch the ball in the flat touchdown. Dart really impressed me throwing over the middle of the field,
30:36kind of checking out of things. There was one play where the defense thinks that this is just going to be kind of a
30:41and honestly as someone that is a elementary baller from a film perspective they come out in something heavy and then they split out Scatabo.
30:50They might even split out like I don't know if her card was out there but they come out in something a little bit
30:54heavier like sort of bunched up. They spread everything out. The defense instantly says it's a draw, right?
30:58Quarterback draw right away. both of the linebackers are ready for it and instead who knows if Dart checked out of this or
31:04kind of what it was between him or uh you know I will say Matt Nai and Greg Robin actually looked pretty damn good
31:08last night so give them their flowers the offensive line held up so as much as this is likely it's also stock up on the
31:14Giants like the Giants look like a functional NFL offense which is really exciting I think Dart neighbors likely is a perfectly fine passing game with
31:23the marriage of this roll out Pat Ricard and two tight ends and scatterbo behind them and play like this smashmouth football with play action and under
31:31center.
31:33I was impressed watching that game last night. Uh so I like Dart, I likely, I like Neighbors to ramp up here. Scatterbo got no
31:41catches in this game. You had a Devin Singleary touchdown, but with these guys coming back from injury, I'm kind of giving all of them some leeway.
31:47Scatterbo gets 18 carries in this one, 81 yards and a touchdown. That'll do, but we do need this receiving role to
31:53creep back here. Uh and then with Concaid, we'll talk about some of the uh Bills things that happened because we already talked about Concaid uh 68% of
32:01the routes. He never ran 65% or more of the routes in a single game last year.
32:05So, this is new usage for Don Concincaid. And then we also have Joe Brady. Now, yes, Joe Brady has been the
32:12OC for a while here, but him getting promoted to head coach, I believe that now that he has his fingerprints on the
32:17game plan. When you have Shawn McDermott, a defensive head coach, I think that he's going to tell Brady, "Hey, I know you like to do this, but I
32:25want to run the ball, possess the ball, play defense, and win in this way." And I think the Bills kind of came out here
32:30against the Texans and said, "No, we're going to win in this way. We're going to pass the ball. We're going to be
32:34aggressive." Uh, and we're going to win 36 to 30 on the back of our quarterback.
32:39Uh, and that kind of showed in some of these stats here. If we look at my bottom tweet here, Bill's pass rate over
32:45expectation was plus 3.7% this week. All of last year, they were minus 2.9%.
32:51That's a 5% swing in the direction of passing the ball more. Now, of course, it's one week. It's a oneame sample. The
32:57Texans could be a passing game funnel.
32:59Though, I think that they're just a really damn good defense all around.
33:02It's a start. Now, I will also talk talk about James Cook here. I just swallowed my words here. 56% of the routes. That's
33:10solid. He only did that three times last year and then he also had a 15% target share. Would have beat any game last
33:16year. Now, he only ends up with like two or three catches for really not much. He has a down game. James Cook though is
33:22somebody I wouldn't get all the way spooked on just yet. I think that there is some upside here for James Cook. I
33:27still feel good about him. He was playing against the Texans who are really tough defense and the passing game role is potentially there, right?
33:33We're going to get more pass attempts from Josh Allen and Joe Brady.
33:37And then the receiving role has kind of it's shown some upside here. We'll see how this looks next week. Uh but I will
33:43say Tai Johnson coming back could shut the door on the receiving role. Now I will say the receiving role is how he
33:47becomes like a legendary 20 plus point per game running back. He could still be a very solid 17 plus point per game
33:53running back without the entire receiving role we were looking for. Just something to keep an eye on. We don't have an answer yet. And then DJ Moore
34:00looks awesome. He popped for us in the legendary wide receiver research video.
34:02I wish I was more aggressive drafting him because of that. Same thing with Jace Brown in the legendary running back video. Uh, our research looks really
34:10good. It's only one week, but it looks really good. Uh, then we'll talk about some other tight ends. My fifth takeaway
34:15is the Chargers tight ends because I also want to talk about the Chargers on top of that. But, uh, something that was
34:20also on the top of my mind was how is the this tight end room in Los Angeles shake out?
34:28Not very good. Uh, none of them are startable. You can drop all of them. Uh, Injoku and Gadston are like my two ones
34:35I'd be looking at, but I just think it's kind of a mess. And then also, I'm not really touching any of the non-Lad
34:41Makoni receivers. Like, Injoku is brutal. Gadston is brutal. Uh, even Quentyn Johnston, who Quentyn Johnson had kind of a rotating role with Trey
34:49Harris, and then Darius Davis got routes, and Brennan Thompson got routes.
34:53Uh, and Quentyn Johnson wasn't really made a focal point of this offense. So, he's not someone I'm really looking to start anytime soon. Trey Harris, I'm not
35:00looking to start anytime soon. And it's really Lad Makoni or the running backs in this offense. And I do want to say
35:05we're singling out Lad Makoni. And I I'll give a little bit of an excuse as to why the Chargers lose, I believe, at home as massive favorites
35:14to the Cardinals. I I think a lot of survivor pools probably got crushed because of this game. Uh but with Vladimony, they were a top six offense
35:20by all these metrics according to John Dagel. [cough] And then they were outside of the top 28 when it came to or outside of the top 27
35:28when it came to playing without Vlad Makonkey. Now, it's small sample. It's it's splitting up data, but it goes to show that Lad Makanki is definitely the
35:36heartbeat of this offense, which is good. He just needs to come back healthy and then sustain a healthy stretch. Uh then we can talk about the backfield
35:43tier. Hampton is probably the guy, if you were to give me a pressure test on all of the first and second round running backs, I think
35:52Hampton's probably the one I'm worried about the most. I would say Hampton and Achan of all of the top 12 running
35:57backs, Hampton and Achan are probably the two that I feel the shakiest about.
35:59This is from Hayden Winks. He always has really good charts. Make sure you follow Hayden Winks on Twitter. Uh, a really
36:06big takeaway outside of Hampton is that Kamani Vidal didn't register a single snap in this game. This is all Amari and
36:12Hampton and all Katon Mitchell. Kamani Vidal can be dropped and Katon Mitchell becomes one of the most high value handcuffs in the entire landscape of
36:20fantasy football if Hampton was to ever go down. Hampton in this game is inefficient with minus 42% rush yards over expected. He had a fumble in the
36:29second quarter. No targets. Just not great at all from Hampton. There are going to be better days ahead, but it does look pretty spooky if you took
36:37Hampton over Dererick Henry, you took Hampton uh over Genty. There is certainly some nerves here with Hampton, but we'll see. This could become them
36:46getting better. Now, I will say on the other side of this game, I do want to talk about Mike Laflur's debut. Now, of
36:51course, as a Jets fan, and I hate to say those words, as a exfan, but with the Jets, we had Mike Laflur. He was with
36:58Zack Wilson. He was scapegoed as the problem. gets banished away to the Rams for like three or four years and now he
37:04comes out in game one as the Cardinals head coach and beats the Chargers outright on the road as a massive underdog and I was just blown away. I
37:14think that he is amazing. I was looking into it. I don't quite and this is why this show is always tricky. I don't have
37:18all the data I want to get to, but I did look up the most targets for a receiver when there was motion on the play. And
37:25why that matters is that Trey McBride had eight targets where there was motion on the play uh which was up there with
37:32like Aman Ross Stain Brown as like the most. Essentially what that says to me is on passing plays or just in general
37:40you're seeing a lot of motion in this offense. This is a really highlevel offense from the floor. There's motion there's concepts from the Rams and then
37:46on top of that it's not like his brother where his brother does all these things but keeps it very slow. Now, not in week
37:52one, but historically his brother Matt Laflur would keep it very slow paced, runheavy, and instead Laflur was doing all of the efficiency juicers, but he
38:03was also passing the ball at a high rate in a game that he led for a long time.
38:09This is a tweet from Pete Nova here quoting Colin McMin.
38:14Toby Ret remains a high volume passer, 40.4 passes per start in 2025.
38:19last yesterday. I was going to say last night, yesterday on Sunday, 37 pass attempts in that game. Really, really strong. I was expecting a more runheavy
38:28approach as well. And instead, he airs it out against the Chargers. And that is a really, really positive sign. This is
38:34somebody where the offense was eighth best in EPA per play. And I do know that it didn't really show up in the box
38:41score for Marvin Harrison Jr. Michael Wilson had a fine game. I highly doubt the Kendrick Bourne stuff sticks.
38:48Kendrick Bourne had, I think, the team lead in like targets and yards among the receivers. I think we're going to see a
38:54lot of that usage flow back to Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson. I actually came away, as much as it kind of
38:58probably sucked to start Marvin Harrison, I came away impressed that yes, this sucks, but you're in a spot now where this offense,
39:09we came into this season when we look at the implied totals from Vegas or whatever and it said Cardinals are dead
39:15last. They have the worst offense in the league. I don't think so. So, I think they're going to be in the top 20 for
39:19EPA per play. And a lot of these guys are going to pay off. One of them being Jeremiah Love, which brings us to the
39:25world famous rookie running back carousel. Very close to the rookie receiver report. This time, sponsored by the channel. Again, if you enjoy the
39:34rookie report stuff on this channel, I pretty much sprit to get all this data in, compile it all, make this video,
39:39turn it around for you guys as fast as I can. All I ask in return, leave a like and subscribe if you're new. And we'll
39:44talk about Jeremiah Love off the rip because we were just talking about the Cardinals. I think this was a very strong debut for Jeremiah Love. He
39:52scores a touchdown on an inside the 10 carry. He puts up 13 points in this game in a part-time role. He had 37% of the
40:00rushes. He had 44% of the snaps.
40:02Essentially a almost near 50-50 split with Tyler Alier. 44% of the snaps where Alier had 56%. This is game one off a
40:10preseason ankle injury. I think his ro his role is only going to grow from here. 11% target share on just a 38%
40:16route share is really strong. Meaning when he was out there, he was getting targeted. The passing role is awesome.
40:22And again, if this offense is going to actually be a good offense, remember last year I I the number one comment I
40:27would get is, well, what if what if Jeremiah Love is Ashen Genty? Well, first of all, we actually did that research in the legendary running back
40:33video. If you got Ashen Genty's point per game output in the third round where you drafted Jeremiah Love, he would be a
40:39fine pick. He wouldn't be a smash, but he would pay off at where you took him.
40:42Unlike Genty where you took him at the one-tw turn, that's a whole other conversation. But thing about Genty, he was on a terrible, terrible team. If
40:51this Cardinals offense is not going to be bottom five and they're actually instead going to be top 20 and fun and
40:56pass the ball when Jeremiah Love's path to upside is really his reception upside, things getting really spooky. I think Jeremiah Love is a great by low. uh
41:06part-time role, scores a touchdown, but doesn't like crush it crush it. If this Cardinals offense is better than we thought, he becomes a smash this year.
41:14Uh now, I didn't really explain what this rookie running back carousel is.
41:17It's every rookie running back with a registered touch. um their week one snap share, so how much are they on the
41:24field? Their production in points per game, their volume and expected points per game, their FPOE per game, so fantasy points over expected, their
41:30efficiency, their rush share, so what's the percentage of running back rush attempts are they taking up, their route share, what percentage of plays are they
41:39running a route on, and then target share, how often are they getting targeted? Essentially, we want rushes, we want targets, and we want a big share
41:45of the pie when it comes to both of those. Uh the next running back we'll talk about is Jadarian Price. We'll skip
41:50over Kaylin Black for now. Jaren Price, Jeremiah Love's teammate. We didn't get to talk about him after the Thursday night game or no, Wednesday night game.
41:58He's a really tough one. Uh we certainly knew what we signed up for. He is a archetype I will go swinging. I will go
42:04down swinging on every single time.
42:06Rookie running back with the juice on a good team, but it's certainly more complicated than that because we do have George Helani. We have Emanuel Wilson.
42:13We have Charbanet waiting in the wings.
42:15This is a team that did the running back by committee approach to keep Kenneth Walker fresh through the playoffs and then they unleash Kenneth
42:22Walker and they win a Super Bowl. So their strategy is confirmed by the results. I don't agree with it, but they
42:28have a Super Bowl ring. And now we go into Wednesday night. They do the exact same thing where Jarian Price rips off a
42:34long run and then if it's second and two, they say you go off Emanuel Wilson come in and you're going to get the
42:39short yardage run. I think that is insane because who the hell is It's one thing if it's Charbanet. It's one thing
42:44if it's Charbanet, but who the hell is Emanuel Wilson to be taking the short yardage runs? Uh, and then they again win on Wednesday,
42:53confirming their strategy of keeping the Bellcow fresh. The hope is that Jaren Price is just so electric that uh, and then also these other running backs are
43:03just ineffective in short yardage or George Trani on passing downs that Jadarian Price gets the workhorse role between the tackles and is someone you
43:11can start on a weekly basis. for now.
43:13Uh, he is somebody that's probably a high-end RB3 moving forward with upside down the stretch of the season. We'll see how things go. I will say as well
43:20with these videos, like I always keep it real with you guys, I'm not here to defend my takes. And I'm not saying that
43:24I'm wrong on Jarian Price. I am just saying that the split that was forecasted to us has happened here. It's frustrating and where most of the time
43:33like Jeremiah Love, I feel very good about I I I one I really trust the floor. I am very impressed with the
43:37floor. This offense is going to be strong. I think that his role is going to grow. there is a chance that Jaren
43:42Price's role expansion is capped because of this team's mo and how much it continues to get confirmed in the outcome of these games. And then on top
43:52of that, you have the Sam Darnold injury and honestly, the idea that we were told all offseason that this was going to be
43:58a top 12 offense by Vegas implied totals. I'm a little spooked on that.
44:02I'm a little spooked. I don't know like Sam Darnold getting hurt and then this defense is so good. Are we going to get
44:05a bunch of games that are similar to Wednesday night where it's like 10 to 13 and nothing's really going on? That's
44:10all going on in my head about Jarien Price. Uh, but every running back you took in Jerry Rice's Jadariian Price's range of Price and uh, Basil Tutin and
44:22Dowel and all of these guys or Jaylen Warren, I mean, and Jonathan Brooks, they were priced where they were priced because they were committee backs and
44:31this is now what we have to deal with.
44:32Then you have Kaylin Black, a guy that I didn't think would be in a committee, ends up kind of in a committee here.
44:38sort of similar role to Blake Cororm on the Rams where he's going to get nothing in the receiving game. 3% target share,
44:4433% route share, but he gets half of the carries in this game, puts up eight PPR points. I don't know that I'm ever
44:50confident enough to start Kaylin Black, but he is due for one of the essentially what Manungai did yesterday to the uh
44:57Panthers where if you're going to get 10 rush attempts against a bad team in a garbage time game script and you rip one
45:03for a long touchdown, that's going to look good in the box score. But week to week, it'll be tough to trust. He had 14
45:08carries in this one, 65 yards, a catch for five yards as well on top of that, amounting to eight PPR points. He's a
45:14good player, day two pick, and probably the most valuable handcuff in all of fantasy football at this point. But I I
45:20wouldn't I wouldn't get crazy. They were in Australia. I don't think that this usage is going to hold up one for one
45:26exactly here uh over an entire season.
45:29Uh, then we have some of these other rookie running backs. First, Seth McGawan and Mike Washington. Purely the backups for Ashen Genty and then
45:37Jonathan Taylor. And I think both of them being below a 20% snap share, signaling to us that this is an 8020
45:43split in favor of Genty and in favor of JT tells us that those two guys are undisputed bellcows. Like monster bellcows, JT and Genty. If you have
45:51either of those guys, you should feel awesome about them. Uh, then you have Kron Allen. Really crazy. He comes in and like his only snaps and touches came
46:00after the Bill Crosky Merritt fumble. I don't think Katron Allen ends up on this list without the Bill Crosky Merritt fumble. You hate to see that new play
46:08caller David Blau is one of these guys that is going to maybe send you to the doghouse or fumbling a football. Uh
46:13nothing there's not really much to take away from Kron Allen's debut here, but he's certainly in the mix and could get
46:19called on when David Blau or maybe uh you know, anybody here gets upset and fed up. Uh Dan Quinn is the name that I was
46:31blanking on there. Maybe that's a a Dan Quinn thing, but he could get yanked at any time and then Kron Allen becomes
46:37somebody interesting. But I think Kron Allen needs like maybe two injuries to be somebody who start on a weekly basis.
46:42CJ Donaldson is one of the thorns in ETN's side. And that's really it. Now, moving on from that, after talking about
46:49the Cardinals offense at the top here of like this, we're getting jumbled all around. Essentially, these are my scattered thoughts, me emptying my brain
46:55about week one. Uh, I want to talk about some dumpster fire offenses. We talked about Arizona with Jeremiah Love. We talked about the Titans with Carnell
47:02Tate up top. Now, let's talk about the Dolphins.
47:06They were bottom five in EPA per play and success rate. Uh, I'll actually show this graphic. which which is what um or
47:13no not this graphic. This is what started this conversation for me. We'll talk about the Eagles in a second. Here you can see this is the bottom teams by
47:21success rate and EPA per play.
47:23Essentially per play efficiency and then downto down success like more of like a steady moving of the chains here with the Dolphins. They were bottom five in
47:32e- paper play, bottom five in success rate against a bottom 10 defense in the Raiders. Malik Willis was the QB12.
47:40He'll be streamable all year in pretty garbage game scripts. But this is what we were concerned about with Devon Achan. 10.6 PPR points against a team
47:49that is supposed to be a softball matchup.
47:53He gives you nothing. Four catches, 30 yards. That's at least a some of the receiving role we wanted, right? Malik Willis. The biggest issue with Malik
48:00Willis is will Malik Willis cap his receiving upside? Well, his receiving upside actually wasn't that bad. It was 11 carries for 36 yards again against
48:09the Raiders. I know they have Max Crosby, but this shouldn't be a team that holds you to 11 carries for 36
48:14yards. So, I am officially spooked on Achan. I will say though, uh, Bejian Robinson, he's a monster. He had like seven plus targets. I think he had
48:23almost a 50% target share in this game.
48:25You can't really say much about the Falcons. You know, Drake, Kyle Pittz, whoever. Bejon is still going to be a top five running back no matter what.
48:32everyone else. I think that you wait for Penn before you get concerned, but you do have the uh right to be concerned if
48:42Pennix is out for a long time, right?
48:44Like if we're going to have to deal with five games of Cooper Rush, that's a big deal. Or I guess you're kind of hoping
48:48for Tua to come back after seeing Cooper Rush yesterday. Uh the Steelers end up on this list with the worst success rate
48:53in the league. I do think that the Falcons just kind of dragged them into deep water of like a really ugly game.
49:00I'll give the Steelers a little bit of leeway here. First game with Mike McCarthy and then on top of that, uh, I
49:05will say they led the league yesterday in pass rate over expectation. So, they are going to pass the ball a bunch. That
49:11is at least a strong sign. Then we have the Eagles here a little bit spooked.
49:15They ended up in a really weird spot.
49:17You can see they're the only team with a positive EPA per play on this list. And it's because they created so many
49:21explosive plays, but on a downto- basis, they couldn't convert.
49:26These Eagles start slow at times. We saw with the Kell Moore era where they started slow and then became awesome. I
49:31wouldn't go crazy on the Eagles.
49:32Something it's just something to monitor. The offensive line was concerning as well. Uh Saquon Barkley's from Brandon Lee Goutton gained 78 of
49:39his 83 rushing yards after contact. That is not good at all. Uh and then I'm a little bit concerned about the receiving
49:45role. I thought that he would get more in the passing game with the absence of AJ Brown with the addition of a new play
49:50caller instead. 35% route share in week one. He exceeded a 35% route share in all but one game last season. I wouldn't
49:58panic just yet on Saquon, but I'd also probably put Saquon in the same bucket as Devon Achan and Amarian Hampton as
50:04top 12 running backs where you're looking around and you're a little bit jealous of the guys who got Genty, uh, JT,
50:11Derk Henry, um, all of these studs up top. I'm probably forgetting one more as well. Uh, then you have the Browns. You
50:18had the Deshun Watson pass to Denzel Boston, but that was really it. Uh, if you drafted Quinn Shawn Judkins, I don't
50:23think you feel good about it at all.
50:24Even with Dylan Samson getting hurt from Ryan Heath here, Quinn Sean Judkins still gets outtargeted three to2 by Raheem Sanders. Shout out Rocket
50:32Sanders. One of my favorite players ever uh coming out of college and just didn't really pan out for him. Uh but we talked
50:38about in the uh the offseason. I don't know why I'm struggling here to put together sentences, but I'm about to say
50:43like the offse or the preseason. Uh what we ended up saying was another tweet from Ryan Heath essentially showing that Todd Monkin has really specific roles
50:51for his running backs. He has one running back that is going to be your between the tackles grinder and then one
50:55running back who is your receiving back.
50:57That's Justice Hill and Dererick Henry.
50:58Now, of course, Dererick Henry is like, "Okay, he's never going to really catch passes." But you can even go all the way
51:02back to his Doug Martin days with Doug Martin and Charles Sims. You can go back to the Kareem Hunt, Nick Chub split. And
51:07even here, Samson leaves a much inferior player to Samson, Rocket Sanders, still then out targets Quinn Sean Judkins. So, you're going to get a bad team with
51:17garbage time. And then Judkins is just your between the tackles grinder for a team that's not going to score a lot of
51:21touchdowns. That was the concern coming into the year. He was one of the least efficient runners this week. Now of course like bad offensive line, bad
51:29team. I don't know how much I can put on the talent of Quinchan Judkins, but he is coming off his own ankle injury as
51:34well. Uh Quinchan Judkins a really tough play moving forward. Now I will say on the other side of things, similar to the
51:41Cardinals, a team that I was expecting to be a dumpster fire really just based off the Vegas implied totals was the
51:46Raiders. And then the Raiders came out here and looked awesome. And I'm kind of ready to anoint Kubak. As much as I'm
51:50mad at Kubak for not warning us at all about this Brock Bowers injury here.
51:59He is an offensive line whisperer. Now, it's one week of data vers the Miami Dolphins, but it's still worth noting that Colton Miller and a guy named DJ
52:07Glaze. I don't even know. DJ Glaze sounds like a shitty DJ who would show up to like DJs down the Jersey Shore on
52:16like a Tuesday night. DJ Glaze.
52:21I have never in my life heard of this player, but he got two offensive tackles to be top five in pass block win rate.
52:27Now, that's just a fancy stat by ESPN, but just a good stat to look at. The Raiders offensive line held up despite
52:33not being strong, especially at the tackle positions. Colton Miller's pretty solid. DJ Glaze is not. It's Tyler Lindenbomb. Jackson Powers Johnson has
52:40had an up and down career since getting drafted out of Oregon. But this is a team that ended up 19th in EPA per play.
52:46Both tackles ended up top five in pass block win rate. Not perfect, but Kubak's calling card is maximizing his offensive lines, and that's what he's done so far
52:55here. You can also about Michael Mayer.
52:57Uh he's a Titan 17 on the week with 19.2 PPR points, but he did have the ninth highest route share among tight ends. He
53:03had plenty of targets. He had a 13.7 expected points per game. So just based on his volume, what should he have put
53:08up? Uh I think better days are ahead for Michael Mayer as well as long as Brock Bowers isn't there. But there's a chance
53:14that even with Brock Bowers, they pay Michael Mayer all this money and Bowowers plays more of a slot wide receiver role and Michael Mayer is out
53:20there as the inline tight end. Uh because again, I trust Kubak to maximize his offense's output. Now with the Raiders, we of course have Ashton Genty,
53:32which is a eighth takeaway here called my legendary running back watch, which is just kind of the watch list for legendary RBs. Here to me is the key
53:40four. If you drafted one of these four running backs, I would feel really good about your odds of getting a legendary
53:45running back this year. It is Bejon, it is Genty, it is Gibbs, it is JT. Now, Bejian and Gibbs went one and two in
53:50your draft for a reason. They are awesome, awesome players. Now you have Genty and Taylor. Taylor goes first round, so not like as big of a hit, but
54:00was somebody that you could have taken over Christian McCaffrey, you could have taken over JSN or any of the receivers or Buuka Nakua or Jamar Chase. It was a
54:08guy you kind of had had to have conviction to take. But with JT, the receiving role is so encouraging that it
54:16stuck from last year. 62% of the routes, 14% target share for Jonathan Taylor is absurd. He ran more routes than Jir
54:23Gibbs.
54:25Pretty nuts. Then you have Ashen Genty.
54:28Ashen Genty through the air in this game. Had six catches, 45 yards, and two touchdowns just receiving. Crazy. 30 plus PPR points. Ashton Genty looked
54:38awesome. We'll see what this looks like against a real defense, but Genty is a very, very strong play moving forward.
54:44He did not look hampered by his injury at all. Um, I like all these guys. Now, Derrick Henry misses the cut because I
54:48do have this sorted by the utilization score on Fantasy Life, which takes into account all of these things. snapshare, rush attempt share, route share, and
54:56puts out a score. Dererick Henry's score isn't great, but he did have 35 PPR points as the RB1 this week. And a story
55:03that we had been watching over the season or the offseason was that Derrick Henry would get involved in the screen game even more this season. And it seems
55:11like that is going to come true. He had a screen go for 19 yards this week. I think in a more competitive game script,
55:16we'll see even more screens here down the stretch. And I bring it up because it was an explosive 19 yard play that
55:21could have been a touchdown. And last year he had just two screens total for eight yards total over the entire season. So this is just a big juice on
55:30top juicing his upside for Derrick Henry if you can really mix in these explosive play screens on a game-to-ame basis. Now
55:38after Derrick Henry let's talk about some non-leendary RBs, some dead zone RBs that could crush me. My ninth takeaway and again I am here to be
55:47honest. I am not here to protect my takes.
55:51three dead zone running backs that we faded that could crush me. It is Javvante, it is David Montgomery, and it
56:00is Kiran Williams. Now, I did have All right, this is what I was looking for.
56:05The utilization report comparison tool with Javvante, David Montgomery, Kairen Williams, the three dead zone running backs that could crush me. Now, the one
56:12that I am most worried about, Javvante Williams, 90% plus usage rating here or 90 plus score. He had only done that
56:20once last year. He also had a 16% plus target share. He only had a 15% plus target share last year once. So these
56:28are as strong as he's ever seen in terms of usage. He could lead the NFL in touchdowns. He could flirt with 18 plus
56:35points per game and really crush even from his third round position. Now we can talk about David Montgomery here.
56:40Three touchdown stings, but the usage wasn't wasn't amazing. 50-50 split in terms of snaps between him and Woody Marks. 33% of the routes. 79 yards on 23
56:50touches against a Bills defense that allowed the sixth most fantasy points to running backs last year as one of the worst run defense units in the NFL.
57:00David Montgomery was fine, got there on touchdowns. I think that he'll end up being a solid pick this year. We'll see how things go.
57:09Uh but I'm not scared that he can truly crush me. I would say Javante Williams is probably the one that I am most
57:15concerned about. Kairen I'm not really concerned about at all. Uh 6040 split with Blake Cororm. He scored a touchdown and it's probably going to be like a 14
57:24point per game running back moving forward. That's absolutely fine. Uh I'm not concerned there. I would say especially given where you drafted Kiran
57:31like in the early third mid third that's not a crazy outcome. It's really more Dvonte. If Dvonte can hit 18 plus points
57:37per game as a third round pick he's going to crush. If David Montgomery can hit like 16 plus points per game as a
57:44fourth fifth round pick he can crush as well. So, I will give those guys their flowers, but it is still a long season.
57:49Then, we'll talk about our 10th takeaway here. Some murky backfields I wanted to touch on. We of course have the Panthers
57:57backfield up top. Now, shout out to Jared Smlet as well. Essentially just bookmarked a ton of his tweets. Make sure you check out his stuff over on
58:06Draft Shark. Uh, you have Panthers running back opportunities in week one.
58:10It was the Chuba Hubard show. I will say only 13 opportunities for Chuba Hubard, but he turned 10 carries into 49 yards
58:17in a touchdown. He turned three catches into 38 yards in a touchdown. He scored the touchdowns. He had the goal line
58:21roll. Uh he is the RB1 on this team moving forward. Brooks is purely a stash moving forward. Bill Crosky Merritt ran
58:29really well. 16 carries, one target. Of course, he fumbles at the end. As Jared Muller points out, the final three carries for Kron Allen came after Bill's
58:38fourth quarter fumble. I think until the fumble, I'd feel really good about Bill.
58:42He was by far and away, even against this Eagles defense, the most efficient runner on this team. He had 16 carries,
58:4963 yards, almost four yards per carry.
58:52And I say almost because against this Eagles defense, that is not bad at all.
58:57I want to say the rest of the offense didn't really run that well uh from a yards per carry basis on this offense.
59:05In terms of yards per carry, it was 3.9 for Bill. It was 3.1 for Rashad White.
59:09And then I guess Kron Allen. Four carries, 16 yards, four yards per carry on his rushes. Then we have the Vikings.
59:1615 for Jordan Mason, 12 for Aaron Jones.
59:19Aaron Jones had the funny uh he like fell down and then kept going and then it didn't really amount to anything. Uh
59:25Aaron Jones, one target isn't really what you're hoping for. Uh Jordan Mason has the long play, gets stopped short of the
59:35touchdown. Uh, I do want to see the box score here as it pertains to Jordan Mason. Aaron Jones, of course, has a
59:43touchdown. Jordan Mason, I remember, had the long run down the sideline and he scored a touchdown of his own. The issue
59:49is that both of these guys scored touchdowns and both of them only finished with around 10 PPR points. So, honestly, like a true split here between
59:56the two running backs, then the Steelers in a dead even split. 16 opportunities to 13 opportunities for Rico Dattle.
60:05Neither of them really get home, but again, I'm kind of still I'm having some patience with the Steelers offense here.
60:10Uh, then you have the Saints week one opportunities. This one was weird.
60:13Kendra matches ETN in carries. ETN gets nine targets, which is absurd. I will say the the game this game was so wonky.
60:20It had uh more plays than really any other game this week. I I want to say the top two in terms of
60:28plays ran was the Saints and the Lions in this OT kind of thriller in a dome. I don't think ETN's going to get nine
60:36targets moving forward, but I also don't think that he's going to split carries perfectly 50/50 with Kre Miller. I would say I'm about lukewarm on ETN moving
60:43forward. Then you have the Packers.
60:45Lloyd was the lead back, but it's a really tough Vikings defense with Flores calling plays. I wouldn't get spooked on Lloyd just yet. Uh but he is a low-end
60:54RB1 uh or no, low-end RB2, sorry, at best. Uh then we can talk about the Jaguars here. Tuan had 16 opportunities.
61:05He doesn't score a touchdown. All the touchdowns go through the air for the Jaguars here. It goes to I think Josh
61:10Cameron was his name. Parker Washington, Jacobe Myers, and Bretton Strange. Uh but I do think Basil 2 in here not terrible. 15
61:19carries, 66 yards. You'd like a little bit more for him in the receiving game, but 22 yards in the receiving game is
61:24strong on his one reception here. I do want to pull up the fantasy life uh usage stuff because I do want to see or
61:30I guess we could actually do that here.
61:31And I don't even really I don't have a plug with these guys. Uh but I think that this is a great product. Uh again,
61:36not that I'm really promoting their stuff here. But if we do Toutin and we do Chris Rodriguez, we can pull up their
61:43comparison. Neither had really strong games in terms of usage. I really wanted to see. So we didn't even get to see the
61:48inside the five short yardage lean to Chris Rodriguez, but both of them got that. Uh yeah, so just a really weird
61:55game script. 40% of the routs for Chris Rodriguez is probably the most concerning part. Oh, damn. You guys can't even see this. Uh 40% of the
62:02routes for Chris Rodriguez is the most concerning part. Uh we didn't have any inside the five. We didn't have any two-minute drill stuff. Uh Chris
62:09Rodriguez running more routes than two is probably the biggest issue here. But also, I wouldn't panic in what was a pretty weird game for this team. Uh then
62:19we will talk about the Jaylen Coker game. Now, we'll talk about him of course a lot more once we get to the
62:25waiverwire video tomorrow, but Jaylen Coker is a real guy. He's a real boy. We talked about him in his draft class and
62:32I'm just so stoked uh that he's doing well. Now, I I don't know that you can count on him to put up 130 plus
62:39receiving yards or 28% target for every week, but as Hayden outlines here, since week 12 of last season, he is the wide receiver 11 on
62:48wide receiver 27 usage. He is going to be a full-on wide receiver three if this sticks. I also wouldn't get crazy about
62:55Tedo McMillan. Tedo McMillan still had a 20% plus target share. I think there's going to be points to go around, but
63:00I'll also step back and say this Bears defense is going to be a fantasy gold mine. It's going to be very similar to
63:05what the Bengals have been in the past where they just kind of lull you into a shootout. I think that's how the Bears
63:10defense is going to be. Uh they just gave up 30 plus to the Panthers and couldn't stop a nosebleleed. Uh then we
63:15get to our 12th takeaway here, and this is where we get just get to our bonus area. We'll talk about the Jets
63:21offense in general. They were up and to the right. Really encouraging sign, but I I I've seen this in week one plenty of
63:26times. They did it last year with Justin Fields versus the Steelers, whatever.
63:29But it is a strong thing to see. Uh then you have Bree Hall, who is a tough one to kind of wrestle with. He he had a I
63:36would say overall a W, 20 plus touches.
63:39Uh he scores a touchdown. He ends up as the RB12 this week.
63:43The nitpick though is that he did seed some short yard stuff to Brilan Allen that won't show up in a graphic like
63:51this because one of them got blown dead.
63:52I think another one uh had like the clock run out uh on a short yardage situation and just weird things happened
63:58for like two short yardage carries for Brillin Allen in this game and then also Brilen Allen ran as many routes as Bree
64:04Hall. Now I think that that has a little bit to do with variance and this weird game script where they just beat up on
64:07the Titans the entire time. So for now we're cautiously optimistic on Bree Hall. We're optimistic on the passing game as well. Gino Smith ends up up and
64:15to the right in terms of completion over expected and then also EPA per play. So passing efficiency and then accuracy adjusted for AOT. Uh really really
64:25strong there. And then you can also talk yourself into the offensive line where the O line had the fourth best pass
64:32blocking grade by PFF. Now say whatever you want about PFF, but fourth best in pass blocking, seventh best in run blocking. The right side of the
64:39offensive line, Joe Tipman, uh young guard, they just extended. And then Membu, the franchise right tackle, allowed no pressures. uh really really
64:49strong from this offensive line. Uh and then just a macro take here to end it off is the state of the league right
64:56now. Uh we just had a monster monster scoring season or scoring week one last year from Pat Thorman. Here you can see
65:04uh last year we were at I think like a 45.8 points per game in 2024 and then we're around 40.7 in 2025 in terms of week one
65:15points per game. This week we are averaging 50 points per game which is huge. We're getting more points. We're getting more under center from Sam uh
65:24Brook House here on the bottom. It's awesome. More under center, more real football, more explosive plays, more points in general. I'm sure a lot of
65:31your fantasy matchups were decided in uh like shootouts and fun fashion. It wasn't like the last two week ones where I came here uh hat in hand of like, man,
65:40I don't know if offenses are going to score like they usually have. But uh we feel good. That is it for today. That is
65:46again going to be our, you know, I say 10 lessons learned, but it's really just whatever whatever takeaways I want to
65:52talk about is what I do. It's just like the fantasy takeaways that you need to know heading into week two. As always, I
65:58appreciate you guys watching. Leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys in the next one.
66:14>> [music and singing] >> Leave me as stones like this.
66:20Ice cold ice around my body.