0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron and it's been crunch time in fantasy football. I hope all of your teams have done well over
0:08the weekend because this was the last week of the regular season. Teams are scratching and clawing for playoff spots. Bye-weeks are getting secured.
0:16Playoff seating is getting set. A lot happened over the weekend and we are here to break it all down with my top 10
0:22lessons learned from week 14 as we look forward to week 15 of the fantasy football season. And this is where I
0:28give you all of the important stats, data, usage, trends, the rookie receiver report, the world famous rookie receiver report, I mean the rookie running back
0:37carousel. Essentially everything you need to know to save you the hours of scrolling Twitter threads and articles and box scores to give you a one-stop
0:45shop of everything you need to win your league, get a leg up on your league mates, everything across the board to
0:52win your league. As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and of course, our first lesson learned is going to be the rookie
1:00receiver report. Again, the world famous rookie receiver report sponsored by Underdog. When you play $5 and you use promo code Ron, you will get $75 in
1:12bonus entries on the app along with gimme pickums in the Pickham lobby for all new customers. That is, we're going to go higher or lower on players yards,
1:21touchdowns, carries, anything. across the board. They of course have NBA stuff, NHL, they have the drafts. I've been ripping the playoff drafts myself
1:29which are a very fun format where you are drafting playoff teams where like yesterday the Colts kind of died, the Chiefs kind of died and it's a fun game
1:37theory game on there. Of course, all of that will be available on Underdog. In the description and the comment section down below, I will have a link where you
1:46can use promo code Ron when you sign up on Underdog. Now, of course, the rookie receiver report is every rookie wide
1:53receiver and tight end with 100 or more routes. I have their route percentage over the last three weeks, so we can see
1:59how much playing time they're getting over the last three weeks. Anything over 80% of the routes is a strong number.
2:04That means they're about a starter in their passing offense. I did add their PPR points just to give you an overall
2:10look of what's their seasonl long production looking like. Not points per game, not this or that, just a raw number, right? We already have enough
2:18per route and adjusted stuff just their seasonl long production. I think that that's a good thing to add here. Targets per out run is just your volume on a per
2:26route basis. Anything over 20% is very strong. Uh yards per out run, your efficiency in terms of gaining yards on a per basis. Anything over two is an
2:33elite number. Uh first downs per out run. Are you not only being efficient and commanding volume and producing, but are you moving the chains and helping
2:41your offense? Anything over 8% is a strong number. And then PFF grade. You look good on film to the PFF scouts. In
2:48the past, anything over 80 has been a hit in the NFL. And we are going to start with the man of the hour, Harold
2:55Fann. And my first note here is that this is a love letter to Harold Fannon.
3:00He had his best game as a pro with Shador Sanders against the Titans here.
3:04He puts up 11 targets, eight catches, 114 yards, a touchdown, and that touchdown was a grown man touchdown. He mossed the corner in the back of the end
3:12zone. He has just looked so good. And I'm not saying this to push down Tyler Warren. I'm just kind of comparing. Like
3:20I'm not even saying that Fannon is better than Warren. I just think it's very impressive that he's even pacing with Warren. He is in the same uh tier
3:28as Warren to me at least where Tyler Warren his situation is going to change from here on out. But over the entire season,
3:36his offense, the Colts offense has been top 10 in passing efficiency. The Browns in terms of passing efficiency have been 32nd. So just in terms of kind of the
3:46penthouse and basement that we're dealing with here in terms of like passing yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, first downs, Tyler Warren has been
3:56afforded a lot more of those opportunities. Now, of course, we can start to nitpick of, well, he has Pitman, he has Ali Pierce. I'm just
4:01saying these offenses are not equal in terms of gaining yards, first downs, fantasy points, and Harold Fannon here, 23.2% and 2% targets per out run. Such a crazy
4:12number. Tyler Warren at 20.4%. His yards per out run is within 06 of Tyler Warren. His first downs per out run is
4:19within a percentage uh like 1% a little bit more than that. Uh and then PF grade, he actually has a better PFF
4:26grade. So again, it's not to say that Fenon is better. It's just the fact that through the for first what like six
4:31weeks it was like oh my god is Tyler Warren the next Brock Bower, Sam Laorter and he actually has been like he is
4:36valued there in dynasty. He should be.
4:38We'll talk about later what things look like moving forward without Daniel Jones, but to this point, Fannon is pacing with the guy that has been hyped
4:46up all year for good reason. Again, I'm not trying to tear down Tyler Warren.
4:50It's really just more so, don't look now, but like Harold Fannon's per out numbers are starting to catch up to Tyler Warren. And that's very impressive
4:57from Harold Fannon, a third round pick, undersized, didn't do well at the combine, and he has just been an absolute monster. And this is me,
5:04honestly. I I hate to start the video off like this with a victory lap, but uh I love Harold Fannon. If you guys saw
5:09over the summer, we drafted so much of him all the way back to Dynasty. This is from 7 months ago saying my favorite
5:15picks in every round of your Dynasty rookie draft. Harold Fannon was a big highlight in that video. Uh on top of
5:21that, in my last video, if you want to check that out, I did get a ton of questions, honestly, over the last month or so of
5:28Ron, you drafted all these teams in the summer. How are they all doing? I gave you guys a complete breakdown of how
5:32they're all doing. And shout out to Harold Fannon man because I had two main event championship games. Yes, they do the championship games in week 14. It's
5:42the nature of the business. They're tournaments. It's like a whole other explanation you can see in that video.
5:46But Herold Phantom because it's a Titan Premium League pretty much single-handedly won me two of my most expensive leagues. These buyins are
5:52$2,000. We streamed them to you guys and it looks like we're going to win both.
5:56Uh this one isn't the automatic one.
5:59This is actually the automatic one where both of us kind of put up stinkers. We put up 128.5 to his 116.45.
6:05Harold Fann's 29.4 Titan premium points did a huge number for us. And then on the other final where if you saw the
6:13video I posted on Saturday, I was scared that we were going to go 0 and2 in these championships and I was going to be
6:18upset. I think Harold Fannon is going to drag me to going 2-0 in these main event championship games. And that is going to
6:24honestly we win both of these which looks like it's going to. We won one of them. This one here, we have a 34 point
6:31lead with it's essentially 34 plus Amarian Hampton vers Keenan Allen.
6:36Something would have to go horribly wrong for us to lose this game. If we go 2 and 0, everything else that happens
6:40rest of uh the fantasy playoffs is honestly just kind of uh gravy. Like this is really all I need uh to come out
6:48like profitable and feel good about everything. So really, really cool.
6:51Shout out Harold Fannon. We drafted him on so many of those tight end premium leagues. We drafted him so much on
6:55Dynasty. I shouted him out as a sleeper here and there, but I will say he was tough to justify drafting uh outside of
7:03uh what am I trying to say? Outside of these deep leagues like the high stakes streams, but we still, you know,
7:09recommended him as Waverwire ad um and everything else. Harold Fannon, shout out to him. Uh and just speaking of Tyler Warren, we just touched on him.
7:16Again, we're going to go into Daniel Jones a little bit more moving forward, but I think in re you feel about Tyler
7:22Warren similar to Harold Fannon, right?
7:24where these are going to be, you know, even though I know Shadore went crazy with the perfect timing, uh, both of these passing offenses will be
7:33bottom 10 the rest of the season. So, Tyler Warren now becomes kind of similar to Harold Fannon, which is going to be
7:39backend, tight end one, uh, where you're just hoping that they individually do well attached to a bad passing game.
7:46Tyler Warren's now going to have like Riley Leonard here who's also banged up.
7:49Anthony Richardson is on IR. So, a lot of things going against him right now.
7:53But I think it's important to note that through this point in the season, he's looked great. He's been everything that he's been promised. And in terms of
8:00dynasty, in terms of where I'm going to rank Tyler Warren in 2026, I have not moved off the fact that he has been the
8:06best rookie tight end so far. So, I I will say give Tyler Warren some grace this uh last stretch of the season. He
8:13had six targets in this game, but only two catches for 15 yards, which is to be expected when you get a quarterback
8:18downgrade the way that he did. Uh, then we have Mecha Ibuka. This one has been so tough to come back to you guys on the
8:23podium for because Ibuka has been one of the more frustrating fantasy players I've ever dealt with because we were super convicted on draft a ton of Ibuka.
8:32And through five weeks, we were laughing to the bank.
8:37And then since then, it has been a nightmare. Now, for where you drafted him, he's still been a net positive for
8:44your team. But what looked like a, oh my god, this guy is going to win fantasy leagues is now more of like a, you know,
8:50you hit a single or a double where you drafted him and you're hoping that down the stretch he can find something here.
8:55But it's crazy. I still feel great about him over, you know, his entire career. I love him in Dynasty. 24.2% targets per
9:03out run is the highest among all receivers. And it's I keep coming back here and saying the same thing, but Ibuka is so crazy because weeks one
9:09through five we had an issue of he's not commanding enough targets on a per out basis, but he's super efficient. He's
9:14scoring touchdowns. Things are going to balance out. Well, it's all happened in the opposite direction where he's now had eight or more targets in every week
9:21since week seven. That's too much volume. Like I've gotten that question of like, are we going to sit IA now?
9:27Eight targets a game every week is too good of volume to sit. Like you just can't sit I can't sit here and recommend
9:34to you in any league where you can start four more receivers, right? So two wide receivers and two flex spots. Ibuka is
9:39going in your lineup, right? I I can't sit here and hop on the mic and tell you to start uh like you could have gotten
9:45too cute and like maybe you started like Adonai Mitchell over him or like tried to get crazy.
9:50Maybe it could have paid off if you went in a crazy direction, but it's just really tough to recommend when I continues to get
9:58this kind of volume. But he got nine targets in this game. Two catches, 15 yards. I will say it was a rain game.
10:05Chris Olive also had a dud, but it's also like, oh my, there's only so many of these games that we can keep on
10:10seeing before it's like not frustrating.
10:12That's really all I can say is that it's frustrating. I think that Baker hasn't been himself. I had some drop issues. He
10:17dropped a wideopen touchdown.
10:20I don't think that he's forgotten how to play football. Like, he's still the guy that we saw weeks one through five. I
10:24think that he even knows that things are going poorly. So, I don't know. But Mike Evans probably comes back this week. I
10:30still think he's a backend wide receiver too rest of the way. Uh it's just been a really frustrating experience with Ibuka. That's really all I can say. Uh
10:37over through his first five games, he had four of his first five games 10 or more yards per targets. That's just like
10:43a kind of a yards per run, but 10 or more yards per target in four of his first five games. Since then, he hasn't
10:49hit 10 or more yards per target once.
10:51It's just been an absolute crazy roller coaster ride here for Ibuka. Uh, you could talk me into the idea that like
10:57maybe Mike Evans comes back and brings some cover drop off of Ibuka and he he plays better, but I don't know that it's
11:02a I don't know if it's it's as simple as that. Like I just think there's a lot of things at play between Ibuka kind of
11:08being in a slump, Baker being in a slump. Like it's not like he was draped in coverage when he dropped the
11:13touchdown. It's just been weird. Fluky drops, Baker not playing as well as he did through the first five weeks. Rain being a factor in this game. Just a lot
11:21going on here. Um, for the Ibuka thing, we can talk about the Bears without Roman Dunes here. Uh, we can touch on
11:29Coloulston Leland first. Uh, sadly his routes didn't budge. I saw this take on Twitter which I was shocked by. Cole KT
11:37is like that's why I didn't rank Leland that high in my rankings because Cole KT is the one holding Coloulston Leland
11:43back, not Roman Dunce. Like the routes ceiling on Loveland is KT. So his route still stayed around 60%. You hate to see
11:51that. Uh, I think he's a fine boom bust option moving forward. Lovelin, but I will say like his perout metrics continue to get better and better. Uh,
11:59which I think or no, he scores a touchdown in this game close to 11. So, my bad kind of painting a picture like
12:04he wasn't that good. 12.9 PBR points.
12:07That's what he's been is just kind of like a boom bust tight end where he's not going to run as many routes as you'd
12:12like to, but when he's out there, he's getting targeted. He's making big plays.
12:15He has the highest PFF grade uh on this entire list right now. His 18.6% 6% targets per hour run is pretty strong.
12:22He's he's like, you know, mildly efficient, mildly getting first downs.
12:26He looks great. Like those are all really good tight end numbers, especially given how slow he started the year and getting banged up at one point.
12:33This is all really strong stuff for Coloulston Lovel. Uh so for me moving forward, he's like a boom bust tight end
12:38that you can play every week and then next week or next year, we'll be high on him for 2026. We'll be high on him in
12:43Dynasty. He's a good player. Uh then we have Luther Burton. He sets a season high 69% route share. still not where we
12:50needed to be. We need like 80% plus here, but I think we're getting there.
12:54Uh, and that's very exciting. Now, I will say about Luther Burton, it looks like he's going to be a better and best
12:57ball guy because fantasy playoffs start next week. Uh, I can't recommend starting him with full confidence until we see the route share we need first.
13:05But even on these low route shares, he's still finding a way to put up production. He had six targets, four catches, 67 yards in this. So, 10 plus
13:13PPR points in your flex isn't terrible.
13:15Uh he led all Bears wide receivers in target share, first read share, receiving first downs, yards per out run, uh yards. He was their best
13:24receiving threat. And I think the most important part about Luther Burton here is he's not just a gadget. That was part
13:31of the concern coming out of school is that he would just be a low A dot mist tackles forced uh Cadarius Tony Leisca
13:38Chenalt style tweener gadget. I've at least seen enough that I don't believe that that's the case. He has an 8.3 yard
13:45ADOT in this game. That's still low, but it's not Wandell Robinson style, you know, vintage Wel Robinson style usage.
13:53And he had four first downs on six targets in this game. All of his catches were for first downs. He's moving the
13:58chains. He is playing as a true wide receiver.
14:03And I think that that is super encouraging. Now, again, what we need to happen now is we need these routes to
14:09climb. Uh his numbers look amazing, right? uh 20% plus targets per sprout run, two plus yards per out run. He's the only rookie receiver that can say
14:16he's hit both of those thresholds. 9% first downs sprout run, meaning again, he's not just getting fluky gadget touches. 9% first downs per sprout run
14:24is behind only Tedo McMillan among all rookie receivers. So that's a really strong number. His PFF grade is really strong. We just need the routes. And I
14:32think we're getting there. I think that we're falling out of favor with DJ Moore in Chicago. Roman Dunes is banged up. I
14:38think we're getting there, but it's going to take a leap of faith where you're going to have to probably start him before you see it. Uh, in fantasy,
14:45then we can kind of talk about the Texans rookie receivers. This one was brutal. Uh, where we saw Higgins routes come down in this game from 60% the last
14:53two weeks to 54%. Nolles actually comes up from 42% to 49%, but still both around 50%. Higgins has been the better
15:00per route player.
15:04They win this game, so it's like, okay, whatever. But uh you had 17 routes for Hutchinson, 15 routes for Christian Kirk. Both of them combined for four
15:14targets, one catch, six yards. Why they are running routes over the rookies, I don't know. I guess like a veteran presence. Maybe they run the they block
15:22a little better. I will say I'm more upset about the Higgins usage. I get the null stuff. Maybe he's more of like a
15:26gadget. Uh I think he took an end round and got floored. I can't remember who the player was, but he got like picked
15:33up. Welcome to the NFL hit stick kind of hit there. So, I get with null, but Higgins is this big receiver. He can
15:37block. He can do everything. I don't know why he's running uh 54% of the routes here, but it is what it is. Maybe
15:42he got banged up and I missed it, but I I I really don't think so. Uh then we have some random notes. We'll just jump
15:47around here. Both the Texans receivers uh catch a touchdown. That's really kind of it. Uh Isaac Tesla ran 83% of the
15:54routes despite a healthy Aman Rosane Brown. His issue is I don't know, the pro out stuff is just so bad. Uh he has 13 targets on the
16:04entire year. Eight catches, 120 yards, and four touchdowns. So, eight catches for four touchdowns is really the only reason that he's showed any life in the
16:12box score. If he wasn't scoring touchdowns, he would be absolutely nothing. Uh Jack B showed some showed some life this week. 11% to 50% to 79%
16:20of the routes. Dante Thornton had a concussion this week. Kenny Pickicket's the quarterback. There's really nothing to cling on to for the Raiders, but Jack
16:28Bash is at least showing life. Six catches, 50 yards, two first downs, 1.61 yards per out run. Again, nothing crazy, but he's showing life is what I'll say
16:37about Jack Besh. Uh Pat Bryan's route percentage fell in this game from 77% to 67%, but he ran more routes than Troy Franklin
16:45and Marvin Nims for the second straight week, which is a big deal. I will say Shawn Payne's unpredictable. 67% of the
16:50routes isn't enough to start him consistently, but he is kind of making his mark in that depth chart. Uh we have
16:56Mason Taylor, who drew a ton of targets in this game. He's now up to 17.6% targets per out run. When Brady Cook's
17:02your quarterback, there's really nothing to be said here. Uh he definitely made some catches. Jets Twitter got on him because I think that he dropped a couple
17:08passes as well. Eight targets, five catches, 51 yards. That's fine for Mason Taylor, but that's about all you can get. Um and then I wish I could find
17:16something positive to say about Matthew Golden. Uh but there really isn't. He played 15% of the routes. He made like one catch. He's getting passed on the
17:24depth chart by like Bo Melon. Uh it's not it's not looking good for Matthew Golden. um at this point. Now, our
17:30second takeaway is actually going to be an expansion of the Harold Fannon talk, which is I wrote down perfect timing because I just want to talk about Shador
17:38Sanders where uh Shador has been uh great for Harold Fannon where over three games with Fannon from Heath Cummings here, uh he's been the tight end two in
17:48target share, the Titan 7 in targets per outr run, the Titan four in yards per out run, the tight end four in fantasy
17:53points per game on an 854, 1100 and then 11 touchdown pound pace for Harold Fannon with Shador Sanders.
18:02Shador Sanders throwing it all over the yard here on the NFL nextG stats uh passing chart here where you got uh you
18:11know passes down field all the touchdowns to his left but he's actually airing it out a little bit and I think
18:15Josh Norris kind of breaks it down uh in a good way here where where Dylan Gabriel was like such a statue check it
18:21down quarterback where as Shador Sanders has five completed passes over 20 plus air yards on 125 drop backs Dylan Gabriel had just two on almost double
18:31the amount of drop back. So, Shador Sanders is pushing the ball downfield, which is at least a good thing for fantasy. Now, I will say, I wouldn't go
18:39crazy, you know, like I don't know that Shador is their quarterback in 2026. I will say if they miss out on Mendoza, maybe he
18:47is. Uh, but still over the entire season, like he's still in this bottom left of quarterback efficiency. I will say that prior to this week, he was like
18:55in the bottom left, like in like the basement by himself. He's now at least gotten to a spot where he is on par with
19:01like your, you know, Dylan Gabriel and JJ McCarthy and Cam Wards of the world, which is, I think, a big improvement for
19:06him. Uh, and I have some like glass half full, half empty stuff here. He's still f 41st of 44 in PFF passing grade. He
19:14has the longest time to throw of that group, but he only has a 12.9% pressure to sack rate, which is strong. That's a
19:20top 10 number and very impressive given how long he holds on to the ball. So, he's at least good at avoiding st sacks.
19:27And then his complete percentage is down, but he's pushing the ball so far downfield that his 7.5 yards per attempt is ninth best among 44 quarterbacks. So,
19:35there's some stuff to take away here where he's at le he's avoiding sacks and he's pushing the ball downfield. You kind of for a day three guy like you
19:42take that. He's at least showing some signs of life here. He just has to get rid of the ball quicker. is kind of get
19:48rid of the ball quicker, play within structure, get the completion percentage up, and he's looking decent, but he's very much I'm not sure what he is at the
19:56NFL level just yet. Uh, our third takeaway is, let's do some rookie running back carousel talk here. Very similar to the world famous rookie
20:05receiver report. We have the rookie running back carousel sponsored just by me. Subscribe, leave a like.
20:13That's all I got all I got to say here.
20:15But we have uh the rookie running backs sorted by their week 14 snap share uh their points per game. So just their
20:20production, PPR per touch, their efficiency, and then PF grade, how do they look on film? Headlined by Woody Mars, who plays 89% of the snaps here.
20:28Nick Chub does get hurt against a good Chiefs defense. So it wasn't the most efficient game. He had 26 carries, Woody
20:34Marks, for 68 rushing yards. But two catches, eight yards, a touchdown. You take that all day. He's going to get plenty of volume the rest of the way
20:43with Nick Chub banged up and you're just kind of hoping he falls into the end zone here or there as kind of a backend
20:48RB2 high-end RB3. Then you have Deon Neil and this is hand up. My bad. Uh I said that he was fool's gold on the
20:56waiver wire. He hasn't been like fantastic, but he's been enough. He is a guy you can put in your RB2 spot and
21:01expect production from. Uh he had a ton of carries in this game. I want to say he had like 19 carries against the
21:07Buccaneers in this game. It was definitely raining. Yeah, he had 19 carries, 70 rushing yards, one touchdown, only one catch for 14 yards.
21:14And that was my concern with Deon Neil is that even Camaro wasn't involved in the passing game. But he's kind of like
21:19earning a bigger role where I think I saw a stat out there, shout out to Ryan Heath, that Deon Neil had the only
21:26running back inside the five carries since Kamar has been hurt. Everything else has gone to Tyler Shuck and Taesm Hill. This time at least went to Deon
21:34Neil. He scores the touchdown. Uh Jacon here touches on how he improved his role. Uh his running back rush share went up from 74% to 83%. He also ran a
21:42route in 75% of New Orleans drop backs.
21:44A route share hit by Alvin Kamara just once this year, but it only turned into one target for him. Uh his PF career is
21:51still laughably bad. I don't know that he's a good player. I think that he's a fine player with a ton of volume. And
21:56that is really all you need for fantasy football. Then you have Genty.
22:00Gino goes down.
22:03This team's a mess. Uh he had 10 carries, 30 yards. He had four targets, his lowest since week seven. I wish I
22:10had something more positive for Genty, but it was against the Denver defense. I I think that he'll have better days ahead, but this playoff schedule is
22:16pretty brutal. He has Philadelphia next week, which I I know the Bears ran all over Philadelphia, but go back and look
22:21at what the Lions did against the Eagles. They couldn't run on them. Then they got Houston in week 16 and then a
22:27lighter match up against the Giants in week 17. Something to watch for Genty.
22:30Uh then we can talk about RJ Harvey.
22:32Thank God he now looks good. Uh it was his first time over four yards per carry since week eight in this game. Uh he
22:38plays 68% of the snaps, which is a really high number for R.J. Harvey coming off of 46% the week before. Uh he
22:45had 17 carries, 75 yards, a touchdown.
22:47He had a season high six targets and six catches for 25 yards. We love to see it.
22:52Uh easily over 20 opportunities. Looking kind of like a bellcow here. Uh he ran well. His PF grade took a huge bump in
23:01this game up to 72.4. He's been at 17.1 points per game since JK Dobbins got hurt. Could RJ Harvey be a league
23:08winner? It's looking like maybe potentially, but he does have some tough Yeah, he's got Green Bay, Jacksonville, KC as his next three match ups. That's
23:15going to be really tough. Then we have Judkins.
23:18Tough game. 1.86 yards per carry against a pretty good Tennessee Titans defensive line with like Jeffrey Simmons, I guess you could say. But he did have one catch
23:27for 58 yards that kind of saved his day in terms of fantasy. I will say as well, uh, I'll show it here. Dylan Samson kind
23:34of started to eat into his role. Now, was it because of game script or not?
23:37It's tough to say because it was back and forth the entire time. The Browns were kind of in catch-up mode for the
23:42entire game, but 39% of the snaps for Dylan Samson definitely ate into Quinn Shawn Judkins. Samson did okay in this game. Just kind of enough to take
23:51touches away from Judkins. He had five catches for 64 yards here. Dylan Samson.
23:56Maybe this is a sign that he is going to earn more volume over Jerome Ford and maybe even a little bit overwin Judkins.
24:02Then we have Kyle Manungai here that I wanted to touch on as well. 41% of the snaps kind the lowest over the last few weeks,
24:12but still 16 opportunities against a good defense. The Packers defense is tough even in a game script like this.
24:1816 opportunities for the RB2 I think is a player that you can start uh in your RB2 spot in a pinch or even flex with
24:24Manungai. Uh tough one for Ali Gordon where he ends up getting edged out by Jaylen Wright. Jaylen Wright is probably going to be a guy we talk about on the
24:32Waverwire show as the pickup preferred option here. He has a better utilization score over on fantasylife.com here in terms of snaps.
24:41He beats him out in pretty much every category across the board. Ollie Gordon does score a touchdown, but right is the
24:48guy to own. And then we can also touch on Basil Tutin. Really tough game from him. Only a 3% snap share here. Uh and
24:56above you have from Ryan Heath. He touches on it here. Basil 2 and lost a fumble. He got benched. And then from that point on, Travis Tien
25:06took 13 of 14 backfield opportunities.
25:12Not good for Tutin. Uh he's still just a handcuff. He's maybe even droppable moving forward. We'll see if he kind of
25:17gets out of the doghouse next week. Uh then number four, we have Messi backfields here. Our fourth takeaway. Uh Tony Pard had a big game, but I saw on
25:27Twitter, this is Ryan Heath again on Twitter kind of pointing out that Pard's blowup game was really more so it being
25:35a really cold game, the Browns playing for nothing, and then their team just like not wanting to make a tackle in the cold. is kind of
25:43what it came down to. And I kind of believe him. Like you look at his game log here on the utilization report.
25:47Nothing different happens here, right?
25:49His he still had under 60% of the snaps, still around 70% of the rush attempts.
25:53Like his his role didn't change at all, so I wouldn't go crazy with Pard. Uh we can talk about the Cororum. Kirn split.
25:59Uh I wouldn't go nuts saying that like Kiren's dead. Kirn's like a fine high-end RB2. Like we've been saying, Cororm did have uh just one fewer carry
26:08and was involved throughout. He out carried Kairen Williams in the first quarter and saw the same number as him in the third. So don't go saying that
26:14yes, it was a garbage time game. Did they kill their opponent? Sure. Uh they murdered the Cardinals, but Corm was still involved all the way throughout.
26:22And Cororm looked really good. He is probably like the handcuffed to own right now in fantasy football. 12 carries, 128 yards, and two touchdowns.
26:30Last week he had seven carries, 81 yards, and a touchdown vers. Really, really impressive stuff from Cororm. Uh we can talk about Jaylen Warren. It's
26:38just it's just tough. Like Gainwell got the better role this week. He he outruns I'm trying to think of who it was. He
26:43outran he outran like a DB to the edge. Um scored a touchdown. He looked really good. He puts up 16 PBR points in this
26:51game over. He's now hit 16 or more PPR points in three of his last four.
26:55Kenneth Gainwell whereas Jaylen Warren's been okay. They're both like probably startable. Similar vibe to Swift Manungi but in a worse offense for Warren and
27:03Gainwell. Uh, we can touch on the Chase Brown per split as well after talking about it last week. Chase Brown's still
27:09in a worse role, but the Bengals offense is rolling in a way that doesn't really matter. Chase Brown still uh, honestly
27:16could have had a monster day. He had the uh, wheel route in the end zone that I wouldn't call it a drop. It was just a
27:21tough catch. He didn't come down with it. But now at 18 plus PPR or no, now at 15 plus PPR points in one, two, three, four, five,
27:30six in his last six games. Uh Chase Brown might be a playoff hammer. Uh we can talk about Kenneth Walker. This
27:38one's tough. Maybe you can sell yourself that the Seahawks have been uh they've had big leads in the last two weeks just
27:45absolutely killing their opponents here.
27:47Uh but his usage has gone down in week 13 and 14. His snap share has gone down, his rush time share has gone down. Uh
27:54and he just hasn't been playing well.
27:55We'll see in more competitive games if things change, but it's tough to say.
27:59Uh, and then this isn't a backfield, but a situation I wanted to touch on here where uh, Darren Waller, it seemed like
28:05he was kind of trending up here. He gets to 59% of the routes. Dol gets to 59% of the routes and Dol kind of puts a
28:12ceiling on Waller where now I don't think you can start Waller if Dol is going to get this kind of usage. Now,
28:17they did kill the Jets. Maybe they just didn't really want to play Waller all that much. He's an old guy. Maybe, you
28:21know, kind of a part-timer, but Dol might be a real thorn in his side. All right. Now, my fifth takeaway is, is
28:28Lamar Jackson back? I said sort of. He's sort of back. We can look at Lamar Jackson's game logs here.
28:37It's his best game since week nine against Miami in terms of just points scored. His one, two, three, four, his fifth 20 plus point game of the season.
28:46He did have I think the biggest thing to take away is that it was his best rushing week since week one. Seven
28:53carries, 43 yards, a rushing touchdown.
28:56He looked good in the second half. He's had some weird things happen where of course he had the OPI last week to
29:01Flowers. He had the Isaiah Likely fumble through the back of the end zone last week. This past week he had Isaiah
29:07likely essentially catch a touchdown pass and then they ruled it not at the catch. Uh kind of got like knocked out
29:13as he was trying to secure it. That's a whole other argument. Uh I will say as well the advanced numbers liked his
29:20performance here as well. Uh 71.4 QBR in this game. It was his best since week nine. It was his first time above a 50
29:28QBR since then. So maybe Lamar's back on track.
29:34I think he gets Cincinnati again next week. The Ravens are kind of faltering here though. We kind of needed them to
29:40win this to sort of stay in it. But uh next week versus the Bengals should be good for all of their pieces. Uh my
29:46sixth takeaway, life without Daniel Jones.
29:49This is brutal. Um and it's not really to rub in anyone's face. This is just the reality of the situation is the
29:54Colts after being the one seed in the AFC at one point in time is now 8 and5 with a 30% chance to make the playoffs
30:02by the Athletic. And I'm not sure if that's even factoring in the fact that like there's no more Daniel Jones. Like
30:08I don't know if it's now I assume it is.
30:10I assume it is taking into account the like win percentage now post Daniel Jones in all of their games moving forward. But I'm also not sure on top of
30:19being a team that is now on the outside looking in for the playoffs, they are also in terms of like fantasy football,
30:25they are 28th in terms of implied points by Vegas this upcoming week. Yes, they're playing the Seahawks. So that's kind of a positive of like maybe they're
30:33not this bad, but when we're talking about the Colts offense moving forward, they are around names like the Raiders, the Jets, the Titans, the Browns. The
30:41Cardinals are a little better. The Saints are a little better. the Falcons.
30:44I I wish I could say something good about the Falcons, but that's just where they're at. Life kind of comes at you
30:50fast. Uh we do have this Ryan Heath tweet here of kind of like what to expect. I just wouldn't expect much.
30:57We're going to like the touchdowns are going to go down in this offense and the the production across the board is
31:03just going to be bad. Uh Michael Pman was Riley Leonard's favorite target here. If you wanted to take that from this game, maybe Michael Pman kind of
31:11gets saved, but everybody gets downgraded. It's a really rough situation all around here. Uh and we look at the RB1s over the entire season.
31:18I think JT kind of gets relegated to that Devon Han, Bejian, James Cook, Josh Jacobs area, and now it is a twoman race
31:26for the RB1 overall this year. It's Christian McAffrey. It's Jir Gibbs. And maybe you want to say that uh like it's
31:34a little unfair to JT, but I just think it is what it is. Like that's why Bejon has kind of dropped out of the RB1 races
31:39because he lost his quarterback in Penn.
31:40I think it's going to be even worse for JT. We can see here since Dan Campbell took over play calling, Gibbs has just
31:47lapped the field tier with 32.4 points per game. Over that span, Bejian has been 19.1. Again, I suspect JT JT to
31:56kind of drop down into that area and we'll just see kind of a two-man race between Gibbs and McCaffrey. Uh I will
32:03say Han get gets banged up in this game against the Jets. I think he's going to be fine. It seemed like it was just
32:07precautionary because of his ribs. Uh, and then also on the other side of this Colts game, we can talk about the
32:12Jaguars frustrations. I I got, again, I always ask the Patreon, what do you want to hear me talk about? I was surprised
32:19by how much Brian Thomas stuff there was because he at least gave you a good, and when I say good, like he gave you a fine
32:25outing, uh, if you had the balls to start him, 11.7 PPR points. I think at this point with Brian Thomas, you take
32:31that and run to the bank. Six targets, three catches, 87 yards. He had one really cool splash play with a one-handed catch. Um, but it's been the
32:40Jacobe Myers show. It's crazy. You can see here from Datarama on the bottom, uh, in their first two games together, Jacobe Myers and Brian Thomas, target
32:48share, Jacobe targets, Pout, Jacobe, first read share, Jacobe Meyers. Now, I made a comment, the Travis Hunter stuff is so funny because it's very simple. If
32:58you like Travis Hunter, you agree with me. If you don't like Travis Hunter, you're going to say I'm an idiot and
33:02Myers is a better player than Travis Hunter. But when I see Jacobe Myers have three carries in a game when that's not
33:08his archetype at all. Um, and we look at these numbers and you can see from JJ Zachares, he's had a 20% plus target
33:14share in his last four games, 10 plus PPR points in those four games. I can't help but think Travis Hunter had an
33:21amazing game versus the Rams overseas.
33:23He's coming off a by-week. This should be Travis Hunter, but it's not. But in an alternate reality, Travis Hunter is balling out. And if you're like me and
33:32you had a lot of Travis Hunter, maybe you can take some solace in that. I don't know. Maybe you can uh, you know,
33:38cuddle up against the fire with that.
33:41Uh, then we can talk about Tyler Shuck.
33:43Man, Tyler Shuck is interesting. Now, I'm not going to sit here and say like that like my prospect model or anything
33:49thought that Chuck was anything crazy.
33:51uh we just liked him in Dynasty and I drafted him on some reddraft teams solely for the fact that he was going to start games for the
33:58Saints and quarterbacks are so all over the board that like what if he's good and I don't think that it's confirmed
34:03that he's good at this point but he's been a fun quarterback and he's like he's looked good on the margins and even
34:09in a tough offensive environment with like a bad offensive line and they trade away Shahed and he's throwing balls like Devon Vele and Mason Tipton in this
34:18offense if it's not Chris Olive and Jawan Johnson looks decent. Like did he I mean in the rain here. Okay, so he goes 13 for 20,
34:26144 yards, a passing touchdown. He gives you seven carries, 55 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and he's in he's not anything crazy, but he's in that range
34:36of quarterback efficiency with like Flacco and Gino Smith and Justin Fields and Russell Wilson and Jake Browning and Tyrod Taylor and Bryce Young and Jayen
34:44Daniels. It's a it's a mixed bag, right?
34:46I just think that it's a good sign that he's not in the basement with J.J.
34:49McCarthy and Cam Ward, you know, he's showing some life in a rough spot. Uh he came out as like a project quarterback.
34:56He's a 65% completion percentage. He's 17th in PFF pass grade. He has the eighth lowest turnover worthy percentage. Uh I will say the biggest
35:03concern for him is taking sacks. He has the fourth highest pressure to sack rate. Uh that's not good. Now, in terms
35:09of where he's pacing, I brought up this list of quarterbacks not drafted in the first round, but drafted. So rounds two through seven
35:19quarterbacks since 2000 in their first five starts as a rookie sorted by PPR points. I think the no doubter area is
35:27Herzy Dak Prescott. But then Tyler Shuck's in an interesting range of again we're not looking at first rounders just second rounders or worse. You know Mshu
35:36Beth Shuck Gino Smith Mike Lennon got paid once upon a time. Derek Carr ended up being a good quarterback. Andy Dalton
35:42Nick Fos Dylan Gabriel's up there. He's in a mixed bag, right? like he could be anywhere from like, you know, the next
35:50Derek Carr or he could just be kind of like a Gardner Mchu uh as like a fun backup in a few years. I don't really
35:57know, but he's at least showing life.
35:59And I think that that's fun. Uh our eighth takeaway is just Michael Wilson.
36:03I I I don't really I wish I had uh something to say that wasn't just like this is inexplicable. Like best fantasy
36:10players of the season from Chris O'Brien. 30.8 points per game from Michael Wilson in three games without Marvin Harrison Jr. ahead of all the
36:16other top scorers in fantasy this year.
36:20Uh over this three-game span from Dwayne McFarland, uh 84% route share, 30 plus points per game, 34% target share, 195 air yards per game. Absurd usage. Looks
36:31like Marvin Harrison Jr. might be out longer than expected as well. Michael Wilson could be a legitimate league winner down the stretch here. If he's on
36:37your fantasy team, I would feel really good. Uh and I know that we had one game with Marvin Harrison back in the mix.
36:43Michael Wilson wasn't even startable. I do think even if Marvin Harrison returns that Michael Wilson is still a fine flex play, but without him, he's like
36:50genuinely a guy you have to think about ranking in your top 12 in fantasy. And also, it does help that uh they've been
36:57kind of like garbage time merchants where they get down big to these teams and they don't lay down. They are throwing the ball, you know, 50 plus
37:03times where Brassette broke the record for most completions a few weeks back.
37:08They are like living and dying by this uptempo drop back a ton style offense.
37:13Uh then we can talk about some returns for our ninth takeaway here. Uh we had Don Concincaid back in the mix. He
37:19scores 14.1 PPR points scoring a touchdown here. Nothing crazy in terms of yardage, but I also just found it funny. These are all of the tight ends
37:26to score 10 or more PPR points against the Cincinnati Bengals. It's Fannon, Hawinson, Leaporta, Craft, John Smith, Prior Muth, Taylor Lovelin, Darno
37:35Washington, Hunter Henry, Isaiah Lifely, Dalton Concade, Dawson Knox, just insane uh player tight ends against the Bengals. They have been brutal, but
37:43Dolan Concincade is somebody you can start moving forward. Uh Jaden Reed also back in the mix. Uh here are your Packers route shares and target shares
37:51from Fantasy Life's utilization report.
37:54Essentially, if you start anybody, it's Christian Watson. Romeo Dobs is now somebody you cannot flex moving forward.
38:00His route shares come all the way down to 73%. He's not a focal point in this offense at all. Uh Jaden Reed 65% of the
38:06routes in his first game back. Maybe that climbs back up. And when I say backup, it's really not backup, but maybe that climbs up as he, you know,
38:14gets healthier, finds his groove if he can get to 80% plus. Jaden Reed is going to be on the menu as a flex play. Uh,
38:19and then again, Matthew Golden, less routes than Bo Melton coming off an injury in this one, so maybe it's like a
38:24banged up thing, but uh really, really rough rookie season for Matthew Golden.
38:29I did also want to just touch on uh Christian Watson. Just an insane year. I will say one of the things I wish I was
38:36more like I I I don't think I drafted Christian Watson on a single best baseball team this summer. I just assumed he tore ACL last January. I
38:43didn't think he'd be a factor at all this season and instead he's someone who could be like a late season league
38:48winner here uh where he just continues to put up monster scores uh that you probably got for free in your flex spot
38:54and just been a really really strong player here uh with 18 or more PPR points in three of his last four games
39:01here. Uh he has an 89 PFF grade and a 2.47 yards per out run this season. Both of those numbers would be a careerhigh
39:09for Christian Watson. Just really really impressive from him. Uh moving forward again like league winner type stuff uh moving forward. Uh JJ McCarthy returns
39:19here. Uh sadly it doesn't like he had a good game. It just didn't end up doing anything for the Vikings pieces because
39:26he threw two touchdowns to Josh Oliver.
39:28That's kind of what took away any touchdowns from Addison or Justin Jefferson here. I think he threw another one to TJ Hawinson. But on the bright
39:36side, maybe this is he's making strides here. I will say Washington's defense isn't great. But here, uh, sets a, you know, sets highs in adjusted net yards
39:46per attempt, accurate throw percentage, completion percentage, uh, lowest turnover worthy throws, 2.35 second time to throw. That's great. So maybe we're
39:56kind of trending towards him being a NFL quarterback. We'll see. I'm still pretty skeptical, but he's stepping in the right direction. Uh we also have Rasheed
40:05Shahed.
40:07He doesn't like return return, but he kind of returns to our lives here. Uh scores a kickoff return touchdown from Datarama here. He had five first read
40:15targets. His previous high was two.
40:1716.7% target share a season high for him on the Seahawks. 21% targets per out run. I will say he still ran less routes
40:24in the Cooper Cup, but it was a blowout.
40:26Maybe we'll see him get involved more moving forward. And then my last takeaway, something we'll talk about in the Waverwire show tomorrow once we get
40:32more news about CD Lamb and his concussion. But Ryan Florenoi is a guy to watch. Uh he now has two games this
40:39year with over 100 receiving yards. In the Thursday night game against the Lions, he had 13 targets, nine catches, 115 yards, and a touchdown. He is a good
40:46player among 88 wide receivers with 100 195 or more routes. He is tied for f 13th in first downs per out run. Uh tied
40:54for 32nd in yards per out run and 38th in targets per out run. He is a flex play in any game that CD Lamb misses.
41:01Now that is going to do it for us today.
41:03That is my top 10 lessons learned from week 14 as we look forward to week 15.
41:08And all I ask at this point in the season is just leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys
41:12in the next one.
41:18This sounds like froze
41:32around my body like I'm frozen.
