0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. I've now done 50 paid drafts so far this summer. So, I
0:05figured it'd be a great time look at who I've drafted most often at each position. I've drafted every player in this video at least twice as often as
0:13average. And I'll let you know which ones I've drafted three times more, four times more uh than you'd naturally get just going based off ADP. Going to be a
0:20really long one. So, sit back, hit the like button. We'll start things off with the running back position because that's what you guys like hearing about most.
0:28Uh, my most drafted running back so far this season is Bree Hall on 22% of my teams. That does mean I don't have a
0:34single running back 3x the field or more. I think a big part of that is also because I do like locking up the running
0:42back position a little bit earlier on.
0:44Uh, you're a little bit more likely to be like very overweight players in the later rounds, right? It's just much easier to land a late round option that
0:52you really like because there's a lot more variance in those ADPs. uh you're much less likely to have like a round
0:58one player 30% of the time unless you're reaching a little bit further ahead will get to the one round one player that I
1:05am pretty far ahead on uh and why that might be coming down. Uh but yeah, as you move later and later into draft it's
1:10more likely. So pretty impressive that I have Paw as my top uh drafted player right now. I just think he's a really
1:16really good pick in drafts because it also doesn't matter how you start out he's going to be a good pick. He is a
1:22fantastic pick. I think like the best scenario for you if you're targeting Bree Hall is when you start off with like Jamar Chase or Puka and you know
1:29have you that top four pick meaning you're going to get that early third rounder where uh Bree Hall is going to
1:34go and you start off wide receiver and you say okay we need running back right like this season the running back drop
1:40off is significant you don't really want to be starting with like an RB zero build this year so if you take Chase you
1:45take Puka you're looking for running back at this like two three turn and he's just a great option a lot of the
1:51times there for you in round But I've even taken him in some like three running back builds and say I'm going to
1:56start off with three running backs here.
1:58I've got like um I don't know Gibbs or Bejon and then you get like Love and Bree Hall and you just say I'm going to
2:07just forego this position for a very long time. Locked it up. We'll go tight end. We'll go quarterback. We'll go with
2:13wide receivers in these middle rounds.
2:14Um I basically hope that you just don't even have to draft another running back to later rounds. I mean, he just turned
2:1925 years old, so very much still in the prime of his career. I feel like he's younger than a lot of people uh think.
2:25He's got three consecutive seasons of over 1350 yards. He'll remain highly involved in the passing game. Should be more involved than last season given who
2:34the quarterback is now. Uh the Jets should should be a much better offense this season. We say that a lot and that
2:42it doesn't happen. But this season compared to last year, I mean, let's be honest, all they had last season was Bruce Hall and Garrett Wilson. And then
2:48Garrett Wilson got hurt. So they only had Bree Hall. Uh, you know, you get Garrett Wilson back healthy, you bring in Sadique, you bring in Omar Cooper,
2:56you get a full off season for Adnai Mitchell, you bring in Gino Smith. If you're worse than last season, then I
3:02don't even know how that occurred. Um, also, uh, people for negative, they're like, "Okay, I get it. Obviously, all that stands out, but then they say like
3:10Brilan Allen, Isaiah Davis, there's like, you know, a little bit of coach speak about getting them more involved this season. I'd be concerned about that
3:16if they didn't say the exact same thing last season only for Bree Hall to have 215 more touches than the next closest
3:23player. So, Bree Hall had 279 touches last season. Isaiah Davis was next at 64. Then it was Mason Taylor at
3:3344. So, Bree Hall was the entire offense last year. And again, they're making the exact same comments as last year about,
3:41oh, we'll get our other backs involved.
3:43No, Brace Hall is going to be a feature running back this season. Uh, and defenses actually have to worry a little
3:47bit about the other skilled players. So sure, uh maybe he doesn't have the same touch ceiling theoretically on a share basis, but if the offense isn't
3:56absolutely dreadful, then the efficiency should go up because defenses are scared of other players and also the offense will score more touchdowns. It'll be on
4:04the field more, running more plays, and so it's still a benefit having a better offense. Uh so I just love taking him
4:10anytime in round three. Like even at the turn on, anytime you get into round three, I'm good taking Bree Hall this
4:16season. Uh, second most drafted running back is Katon Mitchell at 20%. Uh, I'm just all in on the Chargers this season.
4:23You will see that a lot throughout this video. Um, I think people forgot or have forgotten how the offensive line fell
4:30apart last season. Like remember watching those games last year and us talking about it being like, "Yeah, these are really good players, but when
4:37there's pressure one second into a drop back, it's very difficult to even call a play that targets deep downfield. you got to just, you know, drop back and get
4:45the ball out instantly. And that's not an offense that's going to be highly successful, right? Um, this season, the offensive line should be healthy. So,
4:52you have that upgrade. Um, you also have Mike McDaniel join the team. That's an upgrade as well. Uh, I'm just I'm
4:59willing to die on a hill saying draft Chargers player. So, I don't even really care which one it is. Obviously, I would
5:05prefer Amaran Hampton to Katon Mitchell.
5:07Obviously, I prefer Lad and Quinton Johnson to Trey Harris, who we'll talk about. But at at what cost, right? Like Katon Mitchell is available so late in
5:16drafts. Usually in reddraft leagues, that's like your last running back. Why not attach yourself to this offense, get some contingent upside, get some
5:23potential for weekly upside? I just think like Justin Herbert could win MVP this season. I want to be taking pieces of this offense. And so if they're
5:30available really late, I'll do that. Uh third most drafted running back uh is also 20%, so he gets tied for second.
5:36Uh, and that's Quinchan Judkins. I was a little surprised to see this one because I don't want to say I've been up and
5:42down on Judkins this off seasonason, but I haven't been like all in the way I've been all in on Bree Hall, all in on
5:48Katon Mitchell. There have been times where I'm like, he's a good pick, but not like an elite pick. So, I'm a little
5:53surprised. Um, it does fit the format.
5:56So, all these drafts are half PPR. Um, I've mentioned also that full PPR. It's a much lower ceiling because while I
6:03think he's, you know, not a zero in the receiving game, we know that Dylan Samson's going to be highly involved in
6:08the receiving game. We know that Judkins is not a prolific pass catcher. So, when you transition to full PPR, I'm definitely much less excited about him.
6:15Uh, but really excited in full PPR or in a half PPR. Uh, no play caller has created explosive runs at a higher rate
6:22than Todd Monkin over the last 25 years.
6:25Uh, Cleveland really easy schedule this season. Uh, and they don't get to play themselves, right? So, it's it's fun having these bad teams because Cleveland
6:33is still a bad team. Um, have the easy schedule because usually it's reserved to like the good teams. Um, sounds weird, but it's like a good team can't
6:41play themselves. And a bad team can't play themselves. So, if you're the worst team in the league, guess who you don't
6:45get to play? The worst team in the league. So, you have to play all the other teams. Best team in the league,
6:49guess who? You don't have to play yourself, right? So, you're playing all the other teams. uh whenever you see a really bad team like top five in
6:56schedule, you know, their schedule is like consistently very very solid because they're not getting the free win uh against themselves. But anyways, uh
7:02yeah, easy schedule this season. Uh he seems to be fully good to go off the foot injury. I really wouldn't be
7:06concerned about that. Uh looks totally fine in like otaas.
7:10He's going to have training camp. He's going to have the preseason. He's have all this stuff to ramp up for week one.
7:15He already looks good, so I really wouldn't be worried about that. uh 256 touches in just 14 games last season as
7:22a rookie, missing a chunk of camp. Like, let's not forget the leadup to last year, he wasn't really out there in camp
7:28as much. Um, and he didn't play a full season. Soon as he's out there, they just absolutely feed him the football.
7:36Uh, give him a full off season. Clearly, they're early down back. He's just a great safe option in the middle of the
7:42fifth round. Uh, and he kind of goes to range where we're closing out the running backs I feel good about, right?
7:47Uh, usually Montgomery's off the board, Swift's off the board. I'll take them first. Uh, once they're gone and then Judkinson's gone, you really fall off
7:55into that range. Like I like Tony Pard.
7:57I think Bashel Tudin has upside, but there's definitely a drop off in certainty uh going into those running backs. We have certainty about Tony
8:04Pard, but not certainty about the offense itself in Tennessee. Um, so he's just like a really nice range where it's like I draft him, uh, I'm like, "Okay,
8:13round six, it's time for quarterback, right?" Um, and so it's it's a very natural thing to say, grab the running back I need, grab quarterback, we'll
8:20figure things out in round seven. Uh, fourth most drafted, the running back I alluded to before, uh, Jonathan Taylor at 18%. Um, I do again think this is
8:29going to drop because uh, after making this video, I have this written down in the notes. I'm moving Christian McCaffrey over Jonathan Taylor in half
8:36PPR and I think he's already over in full PPR, but obviously he will be uh, if he's not already. Um, but I've been
8:43taking JT at five and a lot of times he falls to six, falls to seven, falls to eight. I think I got him at nine one
8:48time. And so that's how you rack up a higher percentage in round one is again, like I said before, having that player,
8:53you know, a lot higher than ADP, but a lot higher ADP in round one is literally like two spots. So, been taking him
9:00every time it gets there. Um, I don't want to say I'm fading JSN this season, but I have a slight fade just because I
9:06would prefer McCaffrey, prefer Jonathan Taylor, then I think it's JSN. And a lot of times if you have that sort of stance
9:13because JSN goes at five and so if I'm not willing to take him until at least pick seven, I just don't end up with him
9:19as often. It's it's more often people take him and I end up with McAffrey or Jonathan T. Yeah, this is going to fall.
9:24It's probably going to be around 12% we'll say by the end because I'll still go McCaffrey than JT. Um but again, I
9:32say that because like it's going to drop, but I still love Jonathan Taylor, right? I have him at sixth overall. uh
9:38he a lot of times goes against seventh, eight or ninth overall. I think people just kind of forget how good this
9:43offense was before Daniel Jones got hurt last season. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Jonathan Taylor was averaging a seasonl long pace of 2,378
9:54yards and 29 touchdowns. That's not like a three, four, five game sample. That is through the first 10 weeks of the season, first
10:0310 games of the season because they go by in week 11. um his production cratered week 12 on. He had 17
10:11touchdowns through week 10, three over the final seven weeks. Uh he also had at least 86 yards in nine of the first 10
10:19games and then only two of the final seven. Again, when you have your quarterback get injured, when you go to um just very mediocre backups, they had
10:29Philip Rivers out there. Are you kidding me? Like, of course, the offense isn't going to be that good. Honestly, Rivers played better than we expected, but
10:35still it was Philip Rivers. He was not that good. Uh defenses were not exactly scared of the ball traveling more than
10:40five yards downfield. Uh in terms of fantasy, he was first in points per game with 25.9 half PPR points per game through week 10
10:50last season. 4 and a half more points per game than Christian McCaffrey for second. He was far and away the MVP of
10:58fantasy last season. Then Daniel Jones goes down and then running back 24 in points per game over the final seven weeks. Obviously, it's inflated by
11:08touchdowns, but they were like the best team in football. Remember that, too. In power rankings, they were like ranked number one. I think we forget because of
11:15how steep the drop off was when Daniel Jones left the lineup. But they were the best team in football. He was the best
11:22running back in football. He was scoring three touchdowns every single week. And now people don't want to take him until like pick six, seven, eight, nine. Are
11:30you kidding me? Like I don't know. I mean, this is someone who was averaging 26 halfp points per game. Doesn't need
11:35to repeat that if you're getting the third or fourth running back uh off the board. So, uh still 27 right in his
11:42prime. Daniel Jones should be good for the start of the season. Maybe he's not as mobile, but also who cares, right? We
11:48don't want him to be mobile for our running backs. JT has, you know, multiple 20 touchdown season. Has that upside. should have at least 15
11:56touchdowns if he and Daniel Jones stay healthy. Could have scored 30 touchdowns last season. If he scored 30 touchdowns last season, you wouldn't be getting the
12:04fourth running back off the board. Uh but yeah, still going to move McCaffrey over him because even saying all that, I
12:10mean, McAffrey is just a stud. Like it's just if McAffrey stays healthy, he's probably going to be the number one running back. Uh so I'll have him at
12:16three now. Then finally, uh at least running backs, obviously we're going to talk about 25 players today. We're only on number five. Uh, fifth running back
12:24is uh, can he gain well? 18% so just under there. Um, just think he's a really, really solid pick. You know what
12:31you're getting with him. You're not going to get a ton of touchdowns. You're not going to get a ton of early down
12:35work. That's why he's not going super early in drafts, but at the 910 turn, like that general range, uh, you're getting, you know, really locked in
12:43receptions. You'll still get early down carries because he's going to play on passing downs, two-minute drill, four-minute drill, uh, when they fall
12:50behind. Like there's a lot of different scenarios where they're going to play fast and have Kenny Gainwell out there as their number one running back and
12:56they will still run the ball. They'll still run the ball sometimes in passing situations. They'll still run the ball sometimes in the four-minute drill.
13:02Still run the ball sometimes when they're trailing. So he'll get those rush attempts. He'll be on the field in the red zone because there going to be
13:07design packages to get him the ball in the receiving game there. But then the receptions, he's going to rack up a lot
13:11of those. And so um just a really reasonable price tag. you're not drafting him to be, you know, a running back two, even a running back three, but
13:19as that running back four, maybe that running back five if you went pretty heavy at the position. You could like close off the running back position on
13:26your team by just drafting him as like your fourth or fifth running back, saying, "Okay, there's really no reason to go beyond this. I attack the position
13:34early. I got a safe option that can rotate in and out of running back, flex spot, for buys, injuries, things like
13:39that, underperforming players." Uh, and he's just it's just so safe. He's a good running back. The role is there. The offense is good. Like I don't know. And
13:49then the contingent upside if Bucky gets hurt. Of course they're going to use Shawn Tucker more and Sean Tucker would gain a lot of value. But Kenny Gainwell
13:56would be probably a running back too every single week if Bucky got injured.
14:00And he could honestly I think potentially be using the flex spot, especially in full PPR, but talking about half PPR in this video. I think
14:06he's like probably a running back three most weeks. Um, even if Bucky got or stayed healthy, it's just a really good
14:13p pick to make in the 910 term.
14:15Quarterback. Uh, surprisingly, Josh Allen is my most drafted quarterback on 24% of my teams. That is just under 3x the field. Um, I basically like taking
14:27him anytime he falls into the late third round. Again, no round two quarterback, early third, mid third. There's still some running backs left, some wide
14:36receivers I think still have more upside. But after you get into that range of like uh T Higgins, Lad, Ibuka, Neighbors, Tet, Garrett Wilson, a lot of
14:46these wide receivers that you know I have a ranking among them and I I have ones I prefer. You know, you guys know I
14:52prefer Higgins, Latuka, and Neighbors.
14:55I'm falling a little bit off of Tet, a little bit off of Garrett Wilson, but like I I wouldn't lie and say that
15:00there's like a huge difference between any of those of those wide receivers. So when you get to the late third round and
15:06you know in round four at worst you can lock up one of them or uh Coulson Loveland it's like well why not just
15:14take Josh Allen. He just feels like a luxury pick at the late third round. I don't necessarily need Lad and Ibuka at
15:20that point. I can just say give me Josh Allen. I'll take one of those two in the next round. If I don't get them, it's
15:25because Coulson Level is still on the board and I'll take him and I'll start off with um kind of like a core pillars
15:30we talked about last season, uh strategy where it's like I've got that elite quarterback, I've got that elite tight end, running back, wide receiver. I
15:37could lock up a number one at four positions there and then fill out the rest after that. Uh and understand that
15:43I don't really need to be drafting quarterback. Don't need to be drafting uh tight end in the next coming rounds.
15:47It's really just attack, running back, and wide receiver in the middle. Um, I'll do that sometimes, but even if I haven't taken a wide receiver yet, just
15:54knowing with a 100% certainty, there's going to be a rockolid round four wide receiver if I really needed to attack that position, it just feels so safe.
16:03Six straight seasons he's been a top two quarterback, right? Maybe he wouldn't be doing this if like he pulled a Lamar and
16:10it's like, oh, he's number one, number three, number 10, and he kind of just has these falloffs, more injury concerns. That's why Lamar goes further.
16:17Even though if you guaranteed a full 17week season for both of them, the projection might be somewhat similar.
16:23Lamar just always misses time. It just doesn't happen with Josh Allen. You don't score top two at the quarterback position six consecutive seasons and
16:33then get a wide receiver upgrade like he's probably going to be number one or number two this year. only hesitation is
16:41that um that second range of quarterback as we'll get into with all these other quarterbacks I'll talk about comes a discount. So I I prefer that range um
16:50and you can get them like three rounds later they also have very significant upside this season. Uh so my plan entering a draft is basically okay if I
16:58get into that late third range and I'm not necessarily in love. Sometimes you know Laduka are already off the board and I'm like man I don't really want to
17:05take T. I don't really want to take Garrett Wilson here. I'll just take Josh Allen and say, "Okay, give me a top two
17:10quarterback and then uh I, you know, miss out on that opportunity to take that next range of quarterback, but it's also not guaranteed that I'll get it.
17:19It's likely I can take that, you know, next range of quarterback in round six, but it's not a guarantee. And since I
17:24really want that to be happening, if I get into a spot in the late third round where Josh's clearly the best player,
17:30I'll just take him and say, you know what, maybe I miss out on that range."
17:32But I wasn't guaranteed to get him.
17:34Anyways, I'll also say this. I really don't like the back half of quarterback this season. I think there are great options. I just think you're overpaying
17:41for them. Like I think Malik Willis has upside. I think Shuck has upside. I think uh Goff has upside this season,
17:48but they're like realistically not going that much later than your Drake May, Jaylen Herz, Jane Daniels, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, uh Joe Burrow,
17:58like that general range. They're not going that much later than that range.
18:03and they're way worse options. Like you cannot sit there and tell me that Malik Willis with wide receivers 22 Atwell at
18:10like number one uh Jaylen Tolbert, Malik Washington, you cannot tell me that even with his mobility, you would feel good about him versus like a Jaden Daniels or
18:20Drake May. Like there's such a significant difference this season, but we're it's really a lot more expensive than it has been in previous years
18:27taking that range. And so I just like guaranteeing myself that early one. Um, and then obviously in a reddraft league, I would not draft another one, right? If
18:36you draft Josh Allen or any of these next quarterbacks, don't draft a second.
18:40On underdog, there are times where I'll take Josh Allen and then I'll still go for an elite quarterback in round six,
18:46uh, because everyone wants to draft three. Everyone wants to draft him early. And I'm just saying, "Okay, give me Allen at a discount because usually
18:52takes an early third round pick to get him. He's at a discount this season.
18:55give me a second discount on someone who used to be going in round four in round six and everyone else can overpay for
19:01like three different late round quarterbacks just overpay overpay overpay whereas I'm underpaying what I have been historically. I don't know. I
19:08think it's still a good strategy even though um if you look back at like past data for underdog uh you're going to see
19:15oh taking those two quarterbacks early doesn't work out well yeah but they haven't been at the discount they have been this season so I don't think you
19:20can just look one to one at the data for that one. Um, but yeah, basically you shouldn't be surprised to say that Caleb
19:26Williams, Drake May, and uh Jaylen Herz are my next most drafted quarterbacks, all in the 18 to 20 range. Uh, I'm also
19:35trying to get Justin Herbert a little bit higher right now. He's at 12%. I'm going to bump his projection as well,
19:40just to make sure he's into that range as well. Uh, but yeah, again, quarterback strategy is very clear to me this season. Get a top eight quarterback
19:48and I'm finally taking Josh Allen in the late third. Um, it's just it's just pretty obvious this season. Like the the
19:54value is just there. Outside of that grouping, the next fifth most drafted quarterback is actually Fernando Mendoza. I was surprised to see this in
20:02a way, but then when I thought about it, I wasn't that surprised anymore. Uh, because I draft so much Brock Bowers, as
20:08you'll see, Brock Bowers is my number one drafted tight end. If I'm getting hit a ton, it means I'm getting Mendoza
20:13a decent amount. Uh, but just think about the Raiders this season. It's an improved offensive line. Brock Bowers is healthy. Genty is still a stud. You get
20:21improved coaching with Kubak in town. Uh just a lot of factors moving in his direction. Uh he's been cratering on underdog I think because people are
20:29scared. Everyone just loves their usable weeks, right? They're really scared. Oh, what if he misses half the season because Kurt Cousins is starting. I feel
20:37like people are getting a little bit overconfident in Kurt Cousins right now.
20:40Like Cousins is cooked. I even if Cousins is out there in week one, he won't be out there by week four. You
20:46won't be losing that many weeks having Mendoza. And I've seen Mendoza go like pick 190, pick 200. That just doesn't make any sense to me. Like people are
20:53underrating Mendoza as a prospect.
20:55They're underrating how good of a spot this is. Maybe the wide receivers aren't that good. But like Tucker's not horrible and is not horrible. And
21:02realistically, they're going to run a lot of one and two wide receiver sets.
21:06They're not going to have three wide receivers out there. They're going to have Mayor and Bowowers. And that combination is a very good combination
21:11at tight end. They're going to have Genty. He's a great running back. If you're just a little bit worse at wide
21:15receiver than General, that's fine.
21:17they're going to scheme most of this offense around the running backs and tight ends. Wide receivers are just going to kind of be the cherry on top at
21:23times. Um, so basically, if I find myself going with these elite quarterbacks and having Brock Bowers on my team, I'm like, "Okay, I need these
21:31middle rounds kind of early late rounds to draft wide receiver and running back, but I need another quarterback. I'll go out and draft Mendoza." Again, this is
21:38for underdog drafting the two. Uh, but I don't mind Mendoza on like a two late quarterback build. So, for those you in
21:44reddraft leagues, if you were unable to get a top eight quarterback and you want to wait until the later rounds, you want
21:49to draft someone like we talked about, Shuck or Malik Willis, well, you probably should double dip at quarterback at that point. U just take
21:55two shots late. I think it's totally fine to draft uh one of them and then draft Mendoza. Uh because again, I just
22:02I don't see it with Cousins. He averaged 172 passing yards per game last season.
22:066.4 yards per pass attempt. He set career lows in literally everything.
22:11passing yards per game, yards per pass attempt, touchdown rate, completion percentage, like you name it, he set a career low and for most of them by a
22:18significant margin. Uh Mendoza is either going to start week one or very soon thereafter. Uh so he's just great to target as that second quarterback uh if
22:27you don't get one of the top eight and you want to double dip later on or as that third quarterback underdog or
22:32second uh quarterback if you took like an Allen or an elite quarterback because he's also really easy to pair with Tucker. If it's trending towards you're
22:39getting Mendoza, take Tucker. And then if you don't get anyone, you still go Mendoza and then Michael Mayer in round 17 and 18. So, uh, but most of the time
22:47I'm stacking him with Bowers. A wide receiver. Um, by far my most drafted wide receiver is Travis Hunter at 36%.
22:56So, that is over 4x the field. Uh, he is my most drafted player on underdog. Uh, listen, this is another hill I'm
23:03prepared to die on. Uh there is zero buzz right now because he's not out there, right? Players don't get buzz if
23:09they're not there in OTAAS. They're not out there in 11on11s. Um but he'll be out there to start camps. Um I just I
23:17just don't see what people aren't getting here. Like I understand that he's going to play some corner. Uh but he's like people are acting as if like
23:26he's an amazing cornerback and a horrible wide receiver. He was an unbelievable just like wide receiver prospect in college. Fully green route
23:36tree. So every single route he ran an above average success rate. Cleared the 92nd percentile versus man, zone, and press. And then he comes out as a
23:45rookie, clears the 80th percentile among NFL wide receivers versus man and press.
23:50And was league average versus zone. Like as a rookie, that's a great profile coming off a great profile in college.
23:56And he can play all three positions.
23:58He's not even like locked into the slot, locked into XZ. Like he can play all three wide seater positions at a highly
24:04successful rate. He's one of the most athletic players in the NFL, period.
24:07Like just across all positions. Again, I know he's going to play corner. But this is one of the most athletic players
24:15we've seen. One of the most exciting players we've ever seen on an elite offense. He's not on the Jets. He's not
24:21on the Browns. He's on the Jaguars who have fantastic offense. and you can get him in round 12 on underdog as your like
24:28sixth wide receiver, round 17 in reddraft as your last skill player pick.
24:33I don't know. I mean, I would get it if like the wide receivers going around him were like, I don't know, uh Quinton
24:40Johnston, uh Josh DS, you know, players who have some concerns but some upside as well.
24:46The wide receivers going around uh Travis Hunter right now are Omar Cooper, the wide receiver three on the Jets. Uh Jaylen McMillan, who I like a little
24:54bit, but still, you know, not exactly a locked in prospect there. Uh Jaylen Naylor, effectively the wide receiver three on the Raiders when you count
25:01Bowowers, and Jawan Jennings, wide receiver three on a low volume passing offense behind two alphas. Like that's who his competition is. His competition
25:08is not, you know, these mid round wide receivers. His competition is Omar Cooper, Jaylen McMillan, Jaylen Naylor, and Jawan Jennings. Okay, so he doesn't
25:17have to do that much at that ranking to overperform. Um, I think once camp's open and people see, wait a minute, he's
25:25taking a ton of reps at wide receiver and he's looking great, why is he going around 17 in reddraft? I think that's
25:33going to bump up. And that's basically the play here. I'm trying to get someone who's highly athletic, has huge spiked tweak potential on a great offense,
25:42great contingent upside, one injury, and he goes into close to a full-time role at wide receiver. Um it just makes too
25:49much sense to be going that late in drafts. Uh second most drafted is Tankell. And this one is a much lower
25:55confidence bet. I'm totally fine if you want to completely fade Tankell this season. But round 17 an underdog, round 25 in a reddraft league. This is
26:03basically like if you are in a 16 team league in uh reddraft, you could still potentially get him as like your last
26:10wide receiver. And why not take the upside shot at that point? If he's out there in day one of camps, his ADP
26:15instantly rises three rounds. And I'm basically just trying to get closing line value here. I'm trying to like draft a player in round 17 as the 78th
26:23wide receiver off boards, hope that he goes out there, does well in camp, people are excited, and then all of a
26:28sudden he's going as a wide receiver 5560 and I basically just don't draft him anymore after that. That's the play here. Next up, uh we've got my third
26:37most drafted wide receiver, Jordan Tyson. Um I honestly didn't realize I was getting as much of him as I am, but
26:44I think it's just that I like the Saints. uh we get into this general range there where um you know all the
26:49elite running backs are gone. We've missed out or gotten uh the elite quarterbacks. I'm not really looking tight end. And so it's a natural range
26:56for me to go with wide receiver. And if I like the Saints, I think they're going to finish top three in pace if they're
27:01going to get a ton of dome games. They have a good schedule. Um he's just the locked in wide receiver, too. He's got a
27:07great role starting in week one. You've got amazing contingent upside if misses time, which he seems to do in a lot of
27:13seasons. Um, it's just it's it's a lot of paths to success, very few paths to failure for round six. If he has hype in
27:24camp, and I think Tyson is a player who could start to see hype and he starts to creep into round five, I'm going to like
27:29him a little bit less. I think he's a really good round six pick. If he goes in five, you'll see my um exposure start
27:35to drop. when we do this video again when I have 100 drafts. Um maybe you see it lower because his ADP has risen. Uh
27:43because he is an exciting uh player that I do think could rise once camp's open, but camp's not open right now. And
27:48honestly, I bet if you're doing like a hometown reddraft league right now, you could probably get him in round seven.
27:52Um just really solid. And again, the upside is there because Olive, you have the blood clots earlier this season or this year. Um you've got the concussion
28:01history. like there's concerns there that most players don't even have to contend with. And there's already concerns being in the NFL being a number
28:09one wide receiver, getting as many routes and targets as he has. There's just regular injury risk, which he suffered before. But when you add in the
28:16concussions, he suffers one concussion, he's out for at least a month. Uh the blood clots, like there are reasons to be concerned with a player like this
28:23naturally. You add on these other factors, and of course, the chances of Tyson hitting that contingent upside are much higher. Uh, fourth most drafted
28:30wide receiver is Nico Collins. I've taken him on 20% of my teams. I just really like starting off whenever I have
28:36that like one-two pick. If I can go, you know, Gibbs, Nico Hall, Bejon, Nico Hall, some sort of combination like that, I just really like starting off
28:46that way. Um, he's a stud. Like whether you want to look at yards of route run, uh, first downs per route run, basically
28:53two of the most predictive metrics for wide receivers. He's just like consistently a top five wide receiver.
28:58in the NFL over a multi-year stretch.
29:00Like each of the last three years, he's been phenomenal in these metrics. Um his biggest issue is honestly, I've mentioned per route route numbers is
29:07that he misses time, right? He's missed three games, seven games, two games, five games, two games over his fiveyear career. Uh you have the last three years
29:15with Shout. Shout missed five games. And so it's like you either have Shout out or you have Nico out. And it's like he
29:20goes through the stretch where like there's a month of really good production and then it's like he gets hurt or Stroud gets hurt. and it's like
29:25he can never like put it together fully.
29:28Um but impossible to predict injuries in the NFL. Uh he's still 27 years old.
29:33They play in a dome. Um he's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And so it's another very good range where all
29:42of that first tier of running back is gone. So next up will be like your Bree Hall and your Jeremiah Love, but you can
29:47get them the third round anyways. And usually Bowowers is gone. I would taking Bowowers over him. And so if I'm not
29:53going running back, I'm not going receiver, we know we don't take quarterback in round two. He just happens to be that next best wide
29:59receiver because basically people are done taking Jefferson, they're done taking Lamb. Um they're kind of deciding between like Nico, uh London, Pickkins,
30:09uh T. Higgins, and I just think Nico Collins is such a locked in player, so talented, has that upside potential.
30:17We've seen it in flashes. We've seen it on a per route basis. And if he can put together a fully healthy season and run
30:23all these routes, my goodness, he is going to absolutely dominate in fantasy.
30:26He's someone that if he puts together fully healthy season, you see him in the mid to late first round next season. Uh
30:33I don't necessarily think that's the case or some of the other wide receivers going around him. Uh so I just really
30:38liked again taking him when I start off with like a uh I start off with like a bean or Gibbs. I don't love it as much
30:44if I start off with like Jamar Chase because then I go chase Nico and I really have to start attacking running
30:49back and if I don't get running back, you're falling off very quickly. Uh but if you start off Gibbs or Bejon, love
30:54taking Nico at that next one. Uh next up, fifth most rostered wide receiver is Trey Harris. Um don't necessarily need to go through that one again. Exact same
31:02take as before. I think the Chargers go off this season, so just give me their single cheapest wide receiver by a
31:09significant margin. someone who's going to play way more than people are expecting. There's a lot of routes on the table now uh with Keenan Allen gone.
31:18Uh and Trey Harris as a rookie last season who didn't even necessarily break out was out there in some two and even
31:23one wide receiver sets because he's great at blocking. And so he's going to be out there a lot. Um huge snap
31:30increase, very talented player, needs developing still. He's not like some superstar. Even if Quinton Johnston got hurt or lad, he'd obviously be someone
31:38we're probably starting in fantasy. Um, but he wouldn't go out there and be like a wide receiver one. But maybe he did
31:43make progress over the offseason. Maybe we will have some reports in training camp that like he's dominating. He looks competitive. He's pushing Quinton
31:51Johnson for snaps. They're going to maybe rotate this season. That's a theoretical possibility. Will it happen?
31:56I don't know. It doesn't need to happen because even if he's just number three on this offense, he's well worth the
32:00pick as late as he goes. And finally, tight end. Uh, as I said, Brock Bowers is my most drafted uh tight end by a
32:08significant margin. Uh, someone on the analytics team uh recently tweeted out the Raiders analytics team last season recently tweeted out that their plan was
32:17for Bowers to break the single season receptions record last season, but then unfortunately he gets hurt uh in the third quarter against New England. Uh
32:24but he had over a 100red yards through three quarters. Like it really was they were going to force feed him the
32:29football. He was going to be dropping like eight for 120 in a score like most weeks, but then he was just never
32:34healthy after that. And that was last season. That was no Mendoza. That was no Kubiaak. I mean, as I've said before,
32:41Brock Bowers has JSN level upside, but you get to play him at the tight end position. I'll take him every time in
32:48the midsec round once Squan Hampton, Ken Walker, and Chase Brown are off the board. So, they're all gone. Jefferson is gone. Lamb is gone. I'm not going to
32:58that next range of running back. I will take Bowers over Derrick Henry, over Devon Achan, over Nico Collins, over uh Drake London. I'll take him over them.
33:06He's right after that range of running back and I just get him a significant amount of time and then, you know, sky's
33:11the limit. Like, if he actually has a JSN level season at tight end, it almost doesn't matter what else you do with the
33:18rest of your draft. Uh you can play it super safe. You don't even have to shoot for upside because if he hits, that's
33:23going to catapult you right into the playoffs. It's going to advance you on underdog. Um, it's just my strategy this season. If I'm in that range, I'm taking
33:29Bowers. If I don't get Brock Bowers, I am trying my absolute hardest to get Coloulston Loand in round four. I genuinely think that Loveland is the guy
33:40that Ben Johnson is going to center the offense around this season. He is an absolute nightmare matchup for defenses.
33:48And last season with Brock Bowers, teams were like, "Okay, um, well, quarterback play is bad and you have no wide receiver, so we're just going to put our
33:56top corner on Brock Bowers." And that makes him more difficult when he also has a knee injury, right? So, it made it
34:01really difficult for him last year. Uh, the Bears, you can't do that against Bears. I mean, they have a Dunay, they
34:07have Luther Burden, there's no one taking their top corner and putting it on Coulson Lovelin. He's basically going to be their number one wide receiver
34:14going against like slot corners and linebackers. And if they actually center the offense around him, oh my goodness, the upside. He could be the number one
34:23tight end. So, I want Bowowers to start.
34:25And if I don't get him, I am taking Coulson Loveland. That's why they're number one and two in the uh my
34:31ownership right now. Also, uh I mentioned this very early in the year.
34:35Uh Chicago has a brutal schedule this season. They play a lot of really good teams and their defense is not that
34:40good. Uh so we could get a ton of shootouts in Chicago. Um I hate that they have so many outdoor games,
34:48especially later on in the season, but uh it's just there's so much upside.
34:53Again, if because I I don't see Ben Johnson centering the offense around Adun. Adun is not really a player you do
35:00that for. The efficiency is going to be just far too low. And then Luther Burden was highly efficient. So you see, okay,
35:06center around him, but we don't yet know if he's someone that can like just destroy you on routes, right? Like he
35:13was very efficient because he was getting a lot of schemed looks. They'll they'll up those looks. He'll get a lot more routes. But do they center the
35:19offense around him or is it more, you know, design plays to Adun, design plays to Luther Burden, but then Loveland is
35:27the player where he's getting significant volume. He's used as a mismatch, used in the red zone, just used all across the field to where plays
35:34are designed to go to him more than these other two. And I don't want to call Luther Burn more of a gadget
35:39player, but you're utilizing him on a highly efficient basis and not necessarily trying to force feed him a ton of targets. I still think he's a
35:45good pick because he could get forcefed a lot of looks but I think Luther Burden uh and and Adun are almost two and three
35:53and that Lovelin is number one and it's the same thing with uh you know Brock Powers. If you're getting you know wide
35:58receiver one production from a tight end I mean you're just smashing people on that positional advantage every week. Uh if you don't land them I'm waiting. I'm
36:08not taking that mid-range. And my third most roster tight end is George KD at 20%. I know he tore Achilles last
36:15season, but if any human on this planet can return from a torn Achilles, an injury like that quickly [snorts] ahead of schedule, it is George KD. Like
36:25look at how this man trains. Look at his work work ethic. He is going to get on the field. Also, uh I'm no doctor, so
36:32you know I'm not like looking at this and being like, "Oh, I think this like many doctors have come out and said
36:38because of where the injury was higher up the Achilles, it's a better timeline." Had it been, you know, more in the middle, lower down, it would have
36:45been a much longer potential timeline for him. Again, I'm not a doctor, but I'm going to trust it when like literally every single doctor out there
36:52is saying, "Yes, higher up the Achilles, better injury timeline." In round 10, give me a tight end on one of the best
37:00offenses football, one of the most elite offenses in football, uh, with massive weekly upside. And who since 2018 has been the tight end three, two, three,
37:10four, two, six, one, and two in adjusted points per game. Eight straight seasons as a top six tight end in adjusted
37:19points per game. He's been first and second over the last two years. And you can get him in round 10. Sounds good to
37:26me. I take him plenty. If I already took Bowowers or Lovelin on underdog, take one of those two. Take KD, call it a
37:32day. Everyone wants to take three late tight ends this season just because it worked out last season. And again, it's the same thing with quarterback, right?
37:40If something worked out last year, everyone wants to do it this year. And they make it more expensive to do so.
37:45Not only is there no guarantee that even if we were looking at last year's prices and you took three late quarterbacks,
37:51there's no guarantee it works this year.
37:52There's no guarantee that three late tight ends works this year, but you also have to pay an elevated price tag to do
37:57both of them. And yet, everyone wants to do it. No. uh give me the early guys at a discount. Uh I think we're looking at
38:05lots of league winners at quarterback, at tight end. I want to be drafting them early because I look at my teams and I'm
38:10still totally fine with my running backs and receivers. I start off running back heavy. I can tra take one of Love
38:16Bowers. I can take these quarterbacks early. I can still attack a lot of wide receivers in middle rounds and your team
38:20turns out totally fine. Uh my fourth and fifth most drafted tight ends, the guys I like to attack if I don't end up with
38:27these top three are the Chargers tight ends. Aronda Cadston and David and Jooku. Again, continuing that trend of every single Chargers player I want to
38:37have rostered at an above average rate.
38:38I did not mention Hampton. I did not mention um I kind of mentioned Herbert.
38:42He's at like 12%. I said um getting that a little bit higher, but I'm above weight on Hampton, on Lad, on Quinton
38:49Johnston. They're just not my most drafted players. I want to have every single Chargers player at an above average rate this season. Um, I honestly
38:56don't know what the plan is here for Gadston and Injoku. But that's why especially I like Injoku. I just don't know how much he's going to be involved,
39:03but he's still a talented player. I don't think the drop off has been that significant. Um, I don't know. I'm just
39:10taking shots late. Like I think both of them have significant upside. If Enjoku I don't take them on the same team. Uh,
39:15but if Injoku doesn't hit, it's probably because Gatson's having an amazing season. If Gaton doesn't hit, it's probably because Enjoku is having a
39:23really solid season scoring touchdowns.
39:25And so if I need a late tight end and I don't get Gadston, I'll take Injoku. If I took Gadston, I won't take Djoku. Um I
39:32just think with either one of them, they can be your second. Um really, I would say Injoku should be your third tight
39:36end underdog. But even a reddraft league, right? If you want to go with like Ferguson, Dallas Godd, Isaiah likely, three really solid late round
39:45tight ends, but you don't necessarily want one. Like if you waited that long, you can definitely double dip. you have the draft capital invested at other
39:52positions to where it's totally fine to be taking two tight ends later on. Take a Ferguson, a Gdder, a likely pair them
39:59with one of Gadston or David and Jooku.
40:02Uh but in reddraft, I would say you could probably just do Gadston because, you know, I'm taking Injoku in like round 18 for free on underdog. You know,
40:09if your last pick on in a reraft league is like round 14, Gadston is the pick.
40:13You don't have to wait for David Andoku.
40:14Uh so, uh that is a massive breakdown of where I'm at through 50 drafts. Again, I will do this again when I get to 100
40:21drafts, 150 drafts, uh, all paid. These are not mock drafts. I spent at least $25 on all these drafts. Uh, if you
40:28want, uh, to end up with similar exposures to me, you want these players at a high rate, you can get my rankings
40:34for free this season, all you got to do is sign up for your first underdog account today using promo code FFA and
40:40join at least one draft. That is it.
40:42I'll email you login info for my rankings within 24 48 hours of you doing that draft. Um feel really really good
40:51about the rankings right now, but also camps are opening up soon and you know I'm going to be grinding the news. I'll
40:56be making sure they're always up todate the rankings are uh for the latest info out of camp. So you can either sign up
41:02through the underdog promo or you can just go to my website the fantasyfootadvice.com.
41:07All right, that'll do it for this one.
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41:13That's the end of this one and thank you all for watching.
