0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here back in that video. Time to release my pre-training camp running back rankings.
0:04These are obviously going to change a ton as we work our way through the summer, but we'll take a look at how I
0:09have things ranked today. Going to be a long one, so sit back, hit the like button, get things started off with tier
0:14one, Gibbs, Bejon, CMC, JT. If you felt like making many tiers here, I just didn't want to make like 50 tiers,
0:23right? Uh if you want to do Gibbs and Bejon in tier one, CMC and JT in tier two, go ahead. I wanted to try and
0:30include a couple more players into different tiers, but um yeah, that's how I have that ranked for Gibbs. It's just pretty obvious. David Montgomery is
0:38gone. Pacheco is obviously there.
0:40Obviously going to get some touches, but is obviously also worse than Dave Montgomery by, I would say, a relatively significant margin. Uh 1,800 plus yards,
0:5018 plus touchdowns in back-to-back season for Gibbs. And again, that's with David Montgomery there. The Lions have the easiest schedule in the NFL this
0:59season. Uh, and if you want a differentiator, you say, um, when we go over Bjon, Nick, Gibbs, Bejon, they're so close. Both exceptional ceilings,
1:08great floors. What do we always default to? Team. What team are they on? I trust the Lions offense more than I trust the
1:15Falcons. So, I would say Gibbs, easy 101 in all formats this season. Locked in receptions, touchdowns, and rushing. He hits in all three areas. He has upside
1:26in all three areas. I trust the offense.
1:28They play in a dome, easy schedule. It's just kind of easy to take him 101. And then I would say Bejon is the 102 in all
1:34formats. Um, also a great pick. Also has crazy high upside. It's just that do you trust the Falcons? It's going to be some
1:42combination of Tua and Michael Penn Jr.
1:46Um, we don't 100% know if either one of them's going to be all that good, but uh, it's not like he's had amazing
1:52quarterback play thus far and he's been exceptional. 1887 yards in 2024, 2,298 yards last season, 15 and 11 touchdowns,
2:03though. So, we talked about 18 plus touchdowns. I think it was 18 and 20 touchdowns for gives backto-back seasons. Uh 15 and 11 for Bejon. So, a
2:12little bit of a lower touchdown ceiling because he's on the Falcons, not the Lions. Uh but still the easy 102 in all
2:19formats. He's never missed a game in his career. I always mention that people like, "No, there was that one time." No,
2:23he played one snap in that game uh where he had like a migraine or something like that. I don't know why they pulled him
2:29onto the field in the fourth quarter.
2:30Maybe to say he played in the game. Uh but yeah, he he has not missed a game in his career besides that one game where
2:36he played one snap. Um and going back to the touchdowns, we don't know like maybe Alier is just like I mean we know Alier
2:44is not an amazing running back, right?
2:46But maybe he's like pretty good. Uh, and the team just really liked him and the loss of Algier replacing him with Brian
2:54uh Robinson. Maybe because Alier was taking meaningful work in the red zone especially, maybe that does unlock a little bit of a higher touchdown ceiling
3:02for uh Bjun Robinson. Um, again panics to a not ideal, but if you're going to get 350 plus touches, you're going to be
3:10game script proof. You can score from anywhere in the field. You get a ton of receptions, touchdown potential, and rushing. Hitting all three areas. It
3:17just makes sense. Very, very safe. Both these two easily in their prime, highly athletic. They're going to be amazing this season if they stay healthy. After
3:27them, number three, CMC coming off a career-high 413 touches last season, was the second oldest player ever to have that many touches. Uh, turned 30 in
3:37June. Ultimately, we know what CMC is. If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy and plays a full 17 weeks, he's the most likely player to
3:48finish as the number one scoring running back. He's also the most likely running back among these top backs to get injured in miss significant time. Um
3:56theoretically, you have that risk of yeah, he's turned 30 now, he's got a ton more touches, he's coming off a 400
4:03touch season. Um that leads to potential for regression in efficiency. The thing that I'll say to that is he has a 100
4:11reception ceiling. So when you have that in your range of outcomes, efficiency starts to matter a lot less. If we were
4:19worried about the touches, if we were worried about the touchdowns, now all of a sudden it's like, okay, he needs to
4:23average, you know, at least four and a half, 4.6 yards per carry. He needs to be somewhat efficient in the receiving
4:28game. He would have been the running back 20 or the wide receiver 11 if you only counted his receiving work last
4:36season. It's only like the receptions, yards, touchdowns. If you gave him zero rush attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, he has he's the running back 20. So
4:46again, doesn't really matter if you say, "Nick, I really think he's going to be less efficient on the ground this season. Yards per carry going to drop.
4:55Um maybe you're worried about Mike Evans scoring extra touchdowns in the red zone." Those are concerns, but you should only be so concerned because if
5:03he had zero rush attempts last season, he'd have been the running back 20.
5:08Even in half PPR, I just think like you're taking him after. I think it's after uh Chase Brown or Chase um Jamar
5:16Chase and Puka. I think you go Gibbs, Bejon, Jamar Chase, Puka, McAffrey. Um I just think you got to take McAffrey once
5:24they're off the board for that ceiling.
5:26He's not going to have zero rush attempts even if he averages like 3.8. 8 yards per carry. He's going to be the
5:30lead back on this team. He's going to score touchdowns. Even if Mike Evans, who I do think is going to have a huge
5:35role in the red zone. Even if he does come in, have that huge role, takes touchdowns away. McCaffrey is just the
5:41other player they're going to look at, the team's still going to score plenty of touchdowns. So, he's very, very safe from a when he goes out there, he's
5:47probably going to project as a top running back every single week. You're going to get a ton of points. Even in
5:50half PPR, uh, in full PPR, he's going to smash, but even in half PR, you're going a ton of points. Um, you're basically
5:55fading an injury, and we can't predict it. just don't know if it's going to happen. Uh but throw it for me. Then JT
6:01finishing out this tier uh over the first 10 weeks last season on pace for 2,378 yards and 29 touchdowns. He had 17
6:12touchdowns scored through week 10. Um Bejan only scored 11 times in 17 weeks last season. So I understand that people look at it and say, "Oh, that's just
6:22touchdown variance, right?" But there's only so many players who are capable of scoring 17 touchdowns over the first 10 weeks of the NFL season. Very, very few
6:31are capable of it through 17 weeks. So to do it through 10 is absolutely crazy.
6:37I really think people just forget how good the Colts were when Daniel Jones was healthy. But then everyone's production just cratered when they had
6:46to go to Philip Rivers. Was it Riley Leonard? Something like that. um terrible backup quarterback play, right?
6:53Offense cratered. They were literally first in the NFL power rankings and then don't even make the playoffs after he goes down. Uh and then you see uh
7:03Jonathan Taylor 24th in points per game in the final seven weeks. So 17 touchdowns over the first 10 weeks. By far the number one player, by far the
7:13most valuable player in all of fantasy through the first 10 games. Uh and then he's 24th among running backs in points
7:19per game over the final seven seven weeks. So um reason you don't have him first is the systemic risk, right?
7:25Daniel Jones coming off the torn ACL or Tony Achilles um they lose Pitman and they don't really replace him with anyone and so there's just like some
7:33risk with this offense that well maybe Daniel Jones is a little bit worse than last season coming off of the Achilles
7:38injury, maybe losing Pitman and you know maybe they bring in Diggs or Keenan but whoever they have is going to be worse
7:45than Pitman. Maybe having those two factors does kind of regress the offense and then maybe there's just natural regression as well because it was so
7:51good over the first 10 weeks last season. Uh that the offense just simply isn't as good. But even saying that he's
7:57still 27, he has multiple 20 touchdown seasons in his career. Uh they can talk all they want in July about limiting his
8:04workload, but these coaches jobs are on the line when they go out there and need to win games and Jonathan Taylor's on
8:09the field and then they look at these backups and they're like, "Oh my gosh, like this is a huge drop off. he's going
8:14to be getting the touches. He's not going to go out there and be like, "Oh, we got to keep it fresh. Give him 15
8:17touches a game." No. When they're winning these games, he's gonna have 25 27 touches. Um what McCaffrey does as a receiver still puts him over Jonathan
8:26Taylor. Uh and there's just less systemic risk in the offense for San Francisco than there is Indianapolis.
8:33But I mean, you get into that mid uh first round. I still want JT. Like even when you look at these wide receivers,
8:39like you look at like JSN, Ammonra, they're great, but why not just lock up Jonathan Taylor, someone capable, literally capable of 30 touchdowns. Uh
8:49crazy high upset on the ground as well.
8:50Still enough receptions. Look at work in the receiving game. I don't know. I feel you just take him after McAffrey. Tier
8:56two, Genty, James Cook, Saquon, Ken Walker, Chase Brown, Hampton, Henry, and Han. Uh we did a video going over this
9:06stuff. I Genty and James Cook weren't in the video, but I talked about them in the video saying that's why or saying
9:12why I have that rank. So, there's like a 25 minute video going over just this tier. So, we'll try and go a little bit
9:18faster. I always say that and then we never do. Uh, but I'll try to go a little bit faster in this year because
9:23again, you can watch a detailed video about this exact tier. Uh Asha Genty, I get being hesitant after a very disappointing rookie season, but also he
9:33had 1321 yards and 10 touchdowns and 55 receptions. So, it wasn't like he went out there and had 900 yards and 10
9:39receptions and like wasn't viable in fantasy, right? He still had a pretty darn good season as a rookie and a good
9:45season when you consider the offense fell apart around him, right? He's going to have improved quarterback play this season. Bowowers being back is massive.
9:52Genty was the only player on the field that defenses were even somewhat concerned about. When you improve quarterback play, when you improve
10:00coaching, when you bring Bowowers just back onto the field, defense is like, "Okay, there's another superstar out there we have to worry about. We can't
10:08just load everything into stopping Ashen Genty. We have to worry a little bit more about the quarterback play." Uh, and then just like even uh, you know,
10:16that's from an efficiency efficiency standpoint, even not thinking about it that way. Well, if they just score more points and they're just on the field
10:24sustaining drives longer, that's also going to really help Genty. But when they're going out there in the three and out, three and out, three and out, and
10:32then they're scoring 10 points, well, if he didn't have the touchdown, it's like he can have 20 touches, but like if
10:38everyone's focusing on you and you can't get spiked plays and there's no touchdowns to go around, that's a really difficult environment for a running
10:46back. Uh the role is massive. Um the situation truly just cannot get any worse. They're going to run a ton of
10:52heavy personnel sets. That's a positive for him. Uh he's still a 23-year-old featured running back in today's NFL. He has the upside for 350 plus touches, 15
11:00touchdowns, 60 plus receptions, probably 65 plus receptions. Um easily could next season be in the conversation for a top three pick in all fantasy. Um I get
11:12people thinking that there's a lot of risk here. I truly believe he's definitely worth taking uh in kind of that like mid to late first round range.
11:20I'm confident enough to definitely take him once um McAffrey and JT are off the board, but I would take like JSN over
11:28him. James Cook uh the safe pick. So basically, if you're in that late first round range and you want that running
11:35back and gent on the board, if you are someone who internally just needs to avoid all levels of risk in the first
11:42like three to four rounds and just say everyone's good. I just don't want to screw this up. You take Cook over Genty.
11:49I'm going to take Genty over Cook because I am someone who leans towards that ceiling, leans into that uncertainty and says, "Well, if Genty
11:56works out, he blows past James Cook and Fantasy, but if you want the safety, go with Cook. He's coming off over 1,900
12:02yards, 14 touchdowns. He scored 18 touchdowns two years ago. Remember when we were talking about James Cook and we were like, he is great, but he can't
12:10score touchdowns, right? Well, he's got a lot of touchdowns in the last two seasons. 32 touchdowns over the last two years. Um, he's more on par with JT in
12:19the receiving game than I think people realize. He has 32 and 33 receptions over the last two years. And so that's
12:26just going to have um it's going to cap his ceiling somewhat in fantasy, you know, at least compared to because you
12:33know, compared to the running backs going after him. No, but compared to Gibbs, Bejon, uh McCaffrey, Genty, some of those backs that um have that just
12:42crazy high reception ceiling, they can reach a level that Cook just can't get to. Like unless he has 2,000 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns, if you're
12:50going to be at, you know, 32, 33 receptions, and someone else is capable of 100 receptions, you just can't make up that difference with the yards and
13:00touchdowns. Um, but the thing is, again, there's no systemic risk, like zero. We know Buffalo is going to score a ton of
13:05touchdowns. We know that Cook is going to have multiple blowup games. He's a little boom bust. And so, from a seasonl
13:12long perspective, there's no risk and we know he's going to be great. from a week- to-eek basis, uh, he's basically going to go off in wins and he's going
13:18to have a little bit of lower floor in losses because of the receiving game role. Um, we look historically, not even
13:23last season, just throughout his career, much worse in losses than wins. Of course, that's many running backs, but it's not every running back, right? It's
13:30not McAffrey, it's not Gibbs, it's um, not Bejian. Like, these backs don't have huge swings in their production. James Cook is like a high-end running back,
13:40one uh at times the most valuable running back in all fantasy in wins, in losses. He's just simply not as good uh
13:47in in fantasy. Um opening schedule of the season at the Texans verse the Lions vers Chargers versus the Patriots at the
13:56Rams. That is a brutal opening schedule.
13:59Those are all games where we're going to actually question if they're going to win. They're not going to go 0 and5. My
14:05guess is they win at least three of those, but those are some brutal defenses. Some really good offenses the other side. And so there's a chance that
14:14you like James Cook, but that realistically if we kind of transported oursel into week three, week four, maybe you're better off trading for him. So I
14:22think he's going to be in the trade video uh for a B low running back because the opening schedule is so
14:28brutal and he does underperform more in those games. Uh, so personally, I think he's a little bit more of an avoid, but
14:35I'd still take him over Saquon. Uh, Saquon up next. Um, just I understand last season was brutal, right? I drafted him in one of my teams last season and
14:45it was not very fun, but uh Philly easiest schedule in the league uh weeks 1 through 14. Hardest schedule in the
14:53league 15 through 17. And I'm having a tough time kind of balancing that in my mind. um he'll help you get into the
15:00playoffs and so weeks one through 14 if they have an easy schedule and Kevin Patulo being gone opens up this offense
15:06Shawn Manion in unknown but there's a lot of optimis optimism surrounding him if this offense you know takes that big leap from what we saw last year and this
15:15defense as good as it's probably going to be it's going to be a very good defense easily top three and their
15:20schedule's easy like you combine all of that there's going to be a lot of really positive game scripts weeks one through
15:2414 you're probably if you draft him going to make the playoffs at a high rate just based off that one decision.
15:29Like he's going to be really good 1 through 14. Technically, all that matters though is weeks 15 through 17, like the playoff weeks. But it's I I
15:37just don't know. I don't know what the correct way of viewing that is. Do you want to take him and just elevate your
15:43chances of getting the playoffs because then anything can happen in the playoffs? Or are you scared because yes, he'll be great for 1 through 14, but the
15:49playoffs are all that technically matter. You still got to win and he'll have tougher matchups there. I don't know what the answer is. Uh personally
15:56though, I really like taking him at that one two turn. Um he's not going to go back to his like, you know, 2,300 yard
16:02uh performance from 2024. Um but the game scripts are going to be really really good. I think he's just awesome in multiple builds. Whether you want to
16:11double dip at running back, if you go like Genti Saquon, that's awesome. Uh but also if you really like CD Lamb, you
16:17really like Justin Jefferson, taking one of them at the end of round one to pair with uh Saquon Barkley, that also
16:24unlocks a great ceiling. So, I think he's just great in multiple builds. Uh, really like him at the turn. Uh, Ken
16:29Walker after him. Zero zero competition for touches on early downs and at the goal line. So, he carries legitimate 300 rush attempt, 15 touchdown upside. Uh,
16:41the only question is will they feature him? Um, but I think given the ADP, given the ranking here, you don't need
16:47that. So, you just need him to be like somewhat used in the receiving game, which he will be. He's going to have
16:52screen passes. he'll have receptions on early downs. So, that's not a huge concern. It's more like, you know, are we talking about him as like a first
17:00round pick next season? Because if he has even 40 receptions and they use him in the passing game, then I mean, he's
17:07going to be a league winner, right?
17:08Because he's going to get all that goal line work, all that early down work, and you add in receptions, that ceiling is
17:13going to be awesome. Also, because I think they're going to lean on him a lot. Obviously, like they don't want Mahomes scrambling coming off the torn
17:19ACL, so that's good for dumpoffs. They don't want him dropping back 45 times a game. That's good for the rush attempts
17:25for Ken Walker. Um, we know that running back has been an issue for Kansas City for a couple years now. They just really
17:32haven't been able to figure out the position, but they paid him a ton of money, so he's a guy they want to lean
17:35on. Um, so a lot of factors in his way or and ahead of him. I would say one thing to like pause concern for is he's
17:44never had more than 255 touches in a season despite at times being very clearly the best running back. Is that Seattle saying we don't think he can
17:53handle this full workload? We would love it if he was featured, but we think he'll break down because he has broken
17:58down at times. I don't know. So, there's some risk with that. There's some risk in that. We just don't know the role as
18:03well because he's changing teams. Uh there's some risk that like if they do decide to limit his workload in any way.
18:08All the backups are pass catchers. And so, the easiest way to limit that workload is to throw the pass catchers onto the field in passing situations.
18:16And we still want him out there for that upside uh in those situations. So, some risk uh but he's still just a great pick
18:23this season. Uh Chase Brown after him uh much less early down upside than Ken Walker. Very unlikely to hit even 250
18:31rush attempts whereas again Ken Walker could hit 300. Um so that basically I think that's the differentiator as to why uh we also think about the touchdown
18:40upside. I think he absolutely could blow past um Ken Walker, but I think you'd need an unlucky season for Ken Walker.
18:46Like every time they get close to the end zone for Ken Walker and they run the ball, it's going to be Ken Walker.
18:52Technically, when they get in close in Cincinnati, I mean, they're throwing it to Chase. They're throwing it to Higgins. Like, they're they're not an
18:59offense that needs to run the ball when they get in close. So, there's a little bit more risk. Um, even though the
19:04Bengals going to be amazing, just slightly more risk uh that that Chase Brown can't hit that like 15 touchdown ceiling if everyone stays healthy
19:11though. We just don't really know uh in this team because they always suffer injuries. It's always either Higgins or or uh Jamar Chase seems to always be
19:19injured or quarterback play. Um Chase Brown's actually been the the consistent guy. So, I still like Ken Walker because if the receptions come with him, that
19:27ceiling is so much higher because you can just blow past him on early downs.
19:31Um but I mean, I have Chase Brown here because he's also an exceptional pick and he's very safe. So, this is kind of
19:37another one. Ken Walker is a little bit more risky if you want to avoid that risk. We know what Chase Brown is. We
19:41know what this offense is. We know what his role is. We know the reception is going to be there. But we know
19:44Cincinnati is going to score a ton of points. Like he's not going to run for 1500 plus yards like some of the many of
19:50the running backs ahead of him can. Uh and he can only have so many receptions when you play with Jamar Chase and T.
19:56Higgins, but because he hits in every area and because I know he's going to have production in all those areas, very
20:03very safe pick near that turn into round two. Uh Amaran Hampton after him. League winning upside if we are wrong about
20:10Katon Mitchell. I just don't think we are wrong about Katon Mitchell as we'll get to at the end of this video. Uh Mike
20:16McDaniel hung wanted posters for Katon Mitchell and Alec Engold in the GM's office. Like he clearly envisions a role
20:25for Katon Mitchell. Um Katon has many of the same traits as Devon Achan. Again, we'll get to Katon Mitchell. Um but the
20:35upside's still crazy. I mean truly, even if Katon gets eight to 10 touches per week, even he gets like 12 touches per
20:41week, this run game could have so much production that there's still plenty of touchdowns, plenty of rushing yards, and plenty of receptions to go around. I
20:49think that's another thing people overlook. They kind of view Hampton, they're like, "Oh, he's not really a pass catcher." Well, Greg Roman offense
20:54is never throw to running backs, and so their target share for the running back position is going to go way up. Uh the
21:01offensive line is also going to be healthier. Um, I just I don't want my love for Katon Mitchell to distract from
21:07the fact that Hampton is still a rock solid pick if you can get him in kind of like the middle of round two. I don't
21:12love him as much at the turn, the one-two turn, but he's a great pick in the middle of the second round. Um, I
21:18think he goes behind these guys because I am worried Katon's going to steal touches and I'm just not worried about any of the running backs ahead of him
21:24stealing touches. But even if that happens, you could see, you know, Katon have a ton of touches and Hampton still finishes like a top five running back
21:31because this offense is so productive.
21:32Uh, the offensive line has improved, the coaching has improved, like everything has improved. And Hayden's a great running back. Like, don't overlook the
21:38fact that he is a freak of nature. Uh, speaking of freaking natures, Derek Henry up next, 11th in points per game
21:45uh, before his week 17 nuke last season.
21:47I think some people have viewed my ranking on him as low, but I'm ranking him literally what he did last year
21:53before dropping the nuke in week 17. Uh, he turns 33 in January. He now has over 3,000 career touches including the
22:01playoffs. Um like the the receptions are I would say the biggest concern for uh Derk Henry and the touch. I I'd say two. It's the
22:12touches, the age, which go together, the correlated obviously, and the receptions. I don't want to bet against Derrick Henry, which is basically why I
22:19have him, what he did last season.
22:22But you have to wonder, right? reception is going from 33 to 28 to 19 to 15. And it's not injury related, like not miss
22:30games related. He's just straight up being less involved in receiving game.
22:33You have to think, they look at him, they say, "Okay, you're turning 33 over 3,000 career touches. You're still amazing, but we want to use you on early
22:40downs. We don't need to use you in the passing game. They continue to scale that back. Does he have 10 receptions
22:45through 17 weeks this season in order to like keep him fresh? Makes complete sense they'd want to do that, right?
22:52keep using him a ton of the ground at the goal line, just don't use him in passing situations. Um, I think that is
22:58going to happen. That's why I also think that um, Justice Hill's a really strong pick on underdog in like round 18. Um,
23:06so it's just it's one concern when you have Derrick Henry is a floor of 12 touchdowns, a ceiling of 250 and four
23:13every time he steps onto the field. But if we're going to project like 0.7 receptions every week and you know that's just going to like somewhat cap
23:23what he can do um and somewhat just like limit um basically increase the risk every week. He could go out there and
23:30have 15 carries for 100 yards but in a full PPR format that's 10 points if he has one target for zero receptions. And
23:36he literally over the final month last season had one target. He didn't have a catch over the last month last year. And
23:43so if we go into this year, what if we look at his game logs and we're like, my gosh, you have eight receptions this
23:48year. Like that's a possibility. And if he doesn't have that 250 and four game, we can see the the fantasy production
23:55slide even if the early on production is still good. Uh then Devon Chan finishing out this tier. Um it's just the risk
24:02with him. Ben, awesome. So thousand yards, 11 touchdowns as a rookie, 1500 yards, 12 touchdowns year two, 1,800 yards, 12 touchdowns in year three, 78
24:13and 67 receptions over the last two seasons. Uh my only worry with him is this offense is going to be horrible.
24:20Also, Tua is just the checkown king and so they designed the entire offense around keeping him healthy, getting the ball out quickly. That is not how this
24:29offense is going to look this year.
24:31Malik Willis is going to look deeper downfield. He's going to scramble a ton.
24:35That's really going to limit how much he throws to the running back position. All the data tells us hyper mobile quarterbacks don't throw to running
24:41backs at nearly the same rate as pocket passers. And you had the ultimate pocket passer, the ultimate checkdown guy in Tua. Now you go to someone who's not
24:49going to throw to running backs that much. And uh I'm worried that they will be tanking. So um Miami is very live for
24:56the 101 this coming year. uh final five weeks of the season at Broncos verse the Bears at the Packers verse the Chargers
25:05and verse the Bills if Achan has a hangail over this last you know month plus he's going to get shut down like
25:13they're easily going to lose all those five and so if you have the 101 you're going to lose these games why would they
25:19like feature him why would they give him a ton of touches risk him getting injured break him down like why would
25:25they do that makes absolutely no sense for an organization do and if he has any sort of minor injury, they're just going
25:31to shut him down. And those are the most important weeks in fantasy. So, that worries me mixed with the receptions um
25:36being a little bit of a lower ceiling than I think people are expecting.
25:38That's why he's at the end of this tier.
25:40I don't really draft him this season.
25:42Tier three, Bree Hall, Jeremiah Love, Jon Williams, Kron Williams. Um really strong tier. It's just a really strong like round three. Like just get
25:51these guys in round three if you need a running back. Uh Bree Hall, awesome round three pick at the beginning at
25:57that round uh two-3 turn. Uh improved quarterback play going from Fields, Ty God, Brady Cook, like it was gross last
26:05season to Gino Smith. Um Garrett Wilson should also play more than seven games.
26:11It's the same thing as like Genty when we talk about those two. When you get that other superstar just onto the field
26:17and playing, the defense, you know, has another person to worry about, but it's sustaining drives. It's adding touchdowns to the offense. That's a
26:25positive for everyone, but especially for the running back. And it's not just getting uh Garrett Wilson back. It's adding Omar Cooper, adding Sadi, getting
26:34an off season with Adnai Mitchell. This offense is just going to be better than it was last year. Just the whole
26:39offensive environment is going to improved. And he's still a 25year-old running back has over 1350 yards three straight seasons. He's super involved in
26:48the receiving game. He has 300 touch upside. 50 plus of those could come in the receiving game. I think he's going
26:54to be league winner in round three.
26:56Jeremiah Love, uh, drafted third overall to the Cardinals, 99th percentile speed at 6'2.
27:04Uh, he's still only 21 years old, 96 percentile college dominator rating. He showed elite receiving skills in college. Like, he's just an amazing
27:12running back, but Arizona is going to stink. And, uh, Brousette, you know, isn't a a bad quarterback. and you know, McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael
27:21Wilson, that's a really strong supporting cast. Um, Arizona is just I don't know. I feel like they're going to like kind of start okay and then kind of
27:31fizzle out as the season goes along, especially if they move to Carson Beck.
27:35Um, they're going to have some good offensive weeks. It's just somewhat concerning that they have the second hardest schedule in the NFL overall. The
27:43hardest schedule by a mile through week 14. They have the lowest implied point per game total of any team. And so
27:50that's the one thing I kind of look at and I'm like, okay, people look at this offense, they're like, wait, that's not
27:56that bad. Again, I listed off their players. McBride, Marv, Michael Wilson, Brassette's not terrible. Love, you're like, that's not bad on offense, but
28:04they are projected to score the fewest points per game in the NFL this season.
28:09So, something has to give. They also gave Algier two years, $12.25 million, 8 million fully guaranteed. Remember we were talking about Bejon and we're like,
28:18you know, Alier was really a thorn in his side because he would step onto the field every time they got into the red
28:23zone. We're like, what are they doing?
28:24Like, why is Alier trotting onto the field inside the five yard line, but they would do that? I mean, that's not
28:29backup money. So, they have a clear role intended for Alier. Now, they paid him that before they knew they're going to
28:34draft Love, but also they had the number three pick, so they they should have known they were going to be drafting
28:39Jeremiah Love. I don't know. I mean, there there's some risk here. Uh he typically goes before um Bruce Hall. I still prefer Bruce Hall over him. Uh
28:49great great great talent. It's just it's a little bit concerning that they're projected for the fewest points in the NFL and they paid their backup running
28:55back a ton of money. I don't understand what this organization is doing. Like what are you doing being this terrible team live for the 101 uh and then you're
29:03paying a backup running back a ton of money. You're paying Love the most money among all running backs in the NFL
29:08taking him third overall. I don't know.
29:10I don't know what this team's doing, but uh I don't like it. Uh Javvante Williams next up coming off over 1300 yards, 13
29:17touchdowns last year. Another safe pick.
29:20The rush attempts and the touchdowns are not in danger. Nothing is going to happen with these backups to where anyone is challenging him for early down
29:27workload and touchdowns. The passing down work is more up in the air. Um and it's really just can Jaden Blue figure
29:33himself out. The team wants Blue to be a thing this year. they want him to mix in as a change of pace back uh in passing
29:41situations. Um I just still don't know if the team knows if that's really going to happen. It's really up to Jaden Blue.
29:47Can he figure himself out? Uh but yeah, Javvante is just a really safe pick. Um definitely a lower ceiling than Bree
29:54than Love just because there's really no outcome where the receptions are there.
29:58Um everything went perfect for Javant Williams last season and he was still 13th in points per game. So, the role can't really expand from what it was
30:06last year. It's probably going to be reduced, but uh still great offense. The touchdowns will be there. Early down workload will be there. So, very safe
30:12pick in round three. Kron Williams up next. Uh man, do I go back and forth on Kiran Williams a lot. 1300 plus yards,
30:2013 plus touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. Still just turning 26 in August. Rams projected to be the number one scoring team in the NFL. They might
30:30also have the best defense in the NFL.
30:32The only risk is Cororum. Um, but Cororum was there last season. He was still really good in fantasy. Um, basically the risk here is could it be
30:4250/50? People are kind of talking about it being a 50-50 split on early downs this week. And since we know the early
30:47downs have translated to red zone roles.
30:49So whatever the split is on early downs, that's been the split in the red zone.
30:53And we saw the, you know, split in the red zone decrease or I guess the split was much more in favor of Kiran last
31:01year because the early downs also tilted in that direction. And so that's the risk. If it goes to 50/50 and you have
31:07the red zone roll split and the early down roll split and it's not like they're going to throw the running backs
31:12all that much on this offense. No team is going to throw the running backs at a lower rate than the Rams. It's like,
31:18okay, well, if you're taking him in round three and it's basically a split, why aren't you just waiting like six rounds and taking Cororum much later.
31:25Um, but at the end of the day, like, if the Rams going to score 27 points per game, even if they split, he's going to
31:32score a ton of touchdowns. They really like him, so he's going to still have have probably the lead. Like, even if
31:38people think it's going be 5050, I feel like 6040 still feels like what it's going to be at worst case. Uh, and if
31:43that happens, you're getting a really strong pick in round three. So, I go back and forth. um until we actually see
31:50in camp they're like, "No, this is a split or Cororum is taking over something like that, I just feel like he's got league winning upside even if
31:57there's no injury and the contingent upside is crazy." Like he could be a top four running back if we actually saw
32:02Cororm get injured. Um lot of upside.
32:05He's a strong pick in this range. I feel like that's kind of where I've landed at. Uh tier four, Scataboo, ETN, Monty,
32:12Jacobs, Swift, Judkins, and Travon. So, starting off with Cam Scataboo, um, clearest path to featured upside in this tier. He was featured before getting
32:22injured last season. Um, he was averaging 19 and a half touches per game. He was running back seven in adjusted points per game. And the Giants
32:31were only two and four over that stretch, including games against Kansas City, the Chargers, the Eagles, the Broncos. Like, this wasn't just like bad
32:38teams, bad defenses. So, uh, he is someone that has featured upside. He's someone that can be used in the passing game and at the goal line. Um it's just
32:49really easy for someone with that profile to hit in fantasy because even if they're inefficient in different areas and if he is inefficient coming
32:56off the injury, it doesn't matter that much because when you add in all the production, who cares? If he averages 3.7 yards per carry, as long as they're
33:03giving him the carries, giving him the goal line work, giving him receptions, it really doesn't matter how efficient he is. You're getting that many touches,
33:11you're going to be good in fantasy. Uh ETN used to be higher, so he was a career clear round three pick uh before
33:18we knew about this Kamar situation, but Kamar restructuring to stay in New Orleans $6 million this year. That's going to crater ETN's value. Um they
33:27clearly love ETN uh and they want him to be the guy, but Kamara is going to be used in passing situations. He's
33:36probably going to be used in two-minute drill, four-minute drill offense as well. Um, we kind of needed that for ETN to pay off a third round ADP. The Saints
33:44do have the second easiest schedule this season. Uh, they still do play a ton of dome games. This team is going to run a
33:50lot of plays. Um, so I still think E10's a good pick. We'll just kind of have to see where does his like ADP fall because
33:58it's been falling ever since Kamar restructured that deal. Um, and the Saints honestly, they're not projected to score like that few points, right?
34:06They're 23rd in points per game, but one point per game behind the Broncos, one point per game behind the Vikings, I
34:13feel like people view those offenses as way better. The Saints have some upside this season. Um, I think more upside than people are envisioning. You know,
34:22not a guarantee that Kamar is what he used to be. So, definitely upside here.
34:28Uh, but yeah, he just can't be viewed in a tier ahead anymore. Uh, Dave Montgomery after him. Love Monty the season ultimate safe pick. So again,
34:36when you're in this range and you're like, I want to avoid all risk. David Montgomery is just clearly the pick in
34:41my eyes. Uh Texans have an amazing defense. They have a good enough offense to where they're going to want to win
34:46games with the ground game, with the defense, and just being basically efficient in the passing attack. Uh Monty's in line for a ton of carries.
34:54Woody Marks is not going to threaten his role on early downs at the goal line. Um honestly, I think even Monty is going to
35:02be out there in some passing situations.
35:03He has a career 6.6 6 yards per target.
35:05That's not bad. 36 and 24 targets over the last two years. And that's playing alongside uh Jir Gibbs. Uh you know,
35:15Woody Mars is not Jir Gibbs. Like I'm just I'm not that concerned about Woody Marks. I really think that Dave Montgomery is going to get a ton of
35:21touches. Very safe pick. Only path to failure is getting injured, but he stayed very healthy throughout his career. A if you can land him in round
35:29five, that's amazing. probably goes closer to the four five turn, but he's just such a good pick this year. Uh Jacobs after him. It's really just the
35:37suspension. Like if we knew he wasn't getting suspended, I would bump him in uh to the the tier three running backs,
35:43those round three running backs. My guess is that he's suspended for four weeks. But it's so difficult because we have absolutely no idea. So it's tough
35:50drafting him right now because you just don't don't know. Is it going to be four weeks, going be eight weeks? Like we
35:54have no clue how long he's going to be suspended or if he even is going to get suspended. Uh the efficiency did drop
36:00last season, but he's locked into so many touches um so much touchdown upside that, you know, even if he's inefficient, he hits in all three areas
36:08and so he's going to be good in fantasy.
36:10And really, he only has Marshon Lloyd behind him. Um maybe I saw Damen Martinez. Um little bit of hype there as
36:17a potential. Um I wouldn't hate Damen Martinez if like Lloyd suffers his injury again. Martinez actually was a prospect that like he went super late in
36:26the draft. um didn't obviously do anything last season. Uh couldn't even like make the team, but he was a prospect that I was like, you looked at
36:34the underlying data, you're like, wait, why do teams not like him? So there there's something there with him. Uh but again, odds are Jacobs, if he's not
36:41suspended, is going to pay off a third round ADP. Uh I just kind of have to drop him down because we don't know. He
36:47misses half the season. You can't be taking him in round three. uh DeAndre Swift after him three straight seasons of at least 250 touches, career-high
36:551386 yards, 10 touchdowns last year. And there's room for the receiving work to increase from what he saw last season.
37:02Manungai seventh round pick. I know people hate uh when I kind of bring up these seventh round picks and even with
37:07Damen Martinez, it's like I'm excited, but he's a seventh round pick and people are like, oh well round doesn't matter when you see how good they are. No, it
37:13does because if he played like that on second round draft capital, the leash is very long, the role expands like and
37:19they're just like more known with that underlying talent. Whenever we have these seventh round picks have a decent season
37:29almost always, like 99% of the time they fall off. Like it just it's unfortunate, but go look at the list of seventh round
37:36running backs having a decent season and then see what they did after that. It's terrible. like they just never do anything after it. Maybe Mungai uh kind
37:46of breaks that mold. I hope he does. I have him in Dynasty. I think he's a good player. Uh but it's unlikely he has, you
37:52know, this huge breakout from what we saw last year. More likely he actually regresses from what we saw last season.
37:58Chicago also has a brutal schedule that hurts Mungai. Helps Swift a little bit more. There's going to just be more games where it's more competitive or
38:06they're trailing when they're not expected to as often cuz we view Chicago as this great offense. But if they're always playing really good teams,
38:13they're going to fall behind more than you typically would expect from a really good offense. Also, it's the second year in this Ben Johnson system. That's a
38:20positive for everyone. Um, I just I like with Monty, whenever he falls into this range, Swift and Monty, like those are
38:29just the two guys that I'm really looking at. Uh, I don't think there's very much systemic risk here. The role is very strong. Uh, you'll have
38:36receptions, early down work, red zone role. like I just I want Swift, I want Monty in this range. Uh after Swift,
38:44it's uh Judkins, lots of systemic risk.
38:48So, if we talk about some players who it's like, oh, there's not really that much risk around them. Well, he plays on
38:51the Browns. And even though they have the fourth easiest schedule, it's the Browns. Their quarterback play is not going to be good. Uh the offensive line
38:58is going to be really bad. Um the lack of a receiving game role is going to hurt. They don't really trust them a ton
39:04of pass protection. But I'll say last season as a rookie who missed a ton of time in camp. In 14 games he had 256
39:13touches with 26 of those being receptions. So if he plays a fully healthy season, he's got a very clear path to 300 touches, 35 receptions, like
39:22and if that happens, you know, I think people when they say the receiving upside isn't there, he's not a good pass
39:27catcher, they're viewing him and saying, "Oh, his upside is like 17 to 20 receptions." No, he could have 35 receptions. It's just that, you know, if
39:35he was prolific in the receiving game, he'd be a second round pick. So, you're getting that discount. Um, it's just that, you know, if the receptions don't
39:43improve and if this offense is as terrible as it's probably going to be, uh, there's just probably going to be a
39:48lot of games where it's more of a like Dylan Samson game. And you never really want that in this range, right? There's
39:54not going to be a ton of games where like Monty and Swift are like game scripted out of it, but Judkins can be
40:00game scripted out of it. So, that kind of hurts. Uh, the one thing I keep clean to is the coaching change. Um, talked
40:06about this in a different video, but no coach has created explosive runs at a higher rate than Todd Monkin over the
40:11last 25 years. Judkins 91st percentile speed um, and 94th percentile burst turns 23 in October. Um, like he's a
40:23highly explosive player playing for a coach that creates explosive runs.
40:26That's basically the upside here. But if the line is bad and the team is bad and the quarterback's play is bad, if
40:31everything around him is bad, it is tougher for him to hit uh his his ceiling and lowest implied team total of
40:37any team in the fantasy playoffs. Third lowest overall. Again, the environment is really tough there. Uh Henderson, well, does he improve? Like that's
40:48basically what we're talking about with Trayvon is Raandre is the lead guy. Like until we see something different happen, Ramandre Stevenson's the lead running
40:55back on this team. Um I basically when you're drafting him this high, which I don't typically do, um you're assuming that he takes that
41:05step forward in the really the receiving game, but also like the blocking game as well. Like they didn't bench him because
41:10he's a bad pass catcher. They benched him last season because he was missing blocks. Like blitzes were coming in, he just wasn't picking them up. And you
41:18can't do that, especially with a bad offensive line because team's going to blitz a lot. They're going to gain pressure at a higher rate than normal
41:22even when they're not blitzing. You need your running back to be able to pick up the blitz. Now, the offensive line
41:26improved. Um, the pass catchers improved. Like, this offense is going to be very good. So, that's going to make up for the fact that they had a very
41:32easy schedule last season. So, they're going to win a decent amount of games, going to score a lot of points. And it
41:37was a disaster last year for Trayvon.
41:39But, he also had,00 yards and 10 touchdowns and 35 receptions, and he was 25th in adjusted points per game. So, having him 23rd here isn't exactly
41:47crazy. You don't need him to be that much better than he was last year. And I do think the odds are he's going to
41:52improve from what we saw last season. uh the team is just going to be better. I know they made it to the Super Bowl last
41:58season, but you know, that was more of the the scheduling. Um offense is going to be improved this year if he can get
42:04out there. Like they want him to be on the field because that's the thing, like they love his speed because he can
42:10stretch defenses and they love that, you know, even from lining up in the back field, he could threaten a safety deep
42:15downfield. That just creates things on offense. So, they want him to be a thing. It's can he be can he earn that
42:21role in camp tier five Tutin Bucky Irving Tony Pard Stevenson and Jenarian Price uh Bashaw Tuton leading this off.
42:29Um I can see an argument for putting him at the end of tier four. Um I might move him up but it's going to depend on camp
42:36reports. I need to see those clear camp reports that he's the guy. He's got featured potential this season. Um remember this video is static. You could
42:45look in a week on the website and he has moved up because if we get those reports from camp I am going to change things.
42:51Um that's basically the one we're looking at is does uh Crod have any early down role? Does Laquent Allen come in on passing situations? Is this like
43:00some sort of three running back committee in Jacksonville? If not, I think Tutin is awesome. Don't let the yards per carry fool you from last
43:08season. He was used a lot in short yardage situations in year one because he's really good in those situations.
43:14But um that's going to tank your yards per carry. It's going to tank your uh missed tackles forced per attempt. Even
43:19if you're a good running back if you're in short yardage. You're not making people miss that much. You're just trying to get that first down and your
43:24yards per carry going to be capped. He's a better running back than you think. Uh this offense is really good. Clearly
43:29winning upside if he can get that roll.
43:32Tony Pard after him. Another running back I drafted a ton in this range.
43:35Running back 28 in points per game last season. Almost impossible for the offense to be worse than it was last year. Uh, Titans are actually projected
43:44for 20.7 points per game, which is tied with the Panthers. It's only half a point per game behind the um the Falcons
43:50this season. I feel like that's a lot higher than a lot of people are expecting. Uh Nick Singleton, Nick Singleton is not a threat to Pard's
43:58workload. He's really not even a threat to Spears' workload. Um, I think there's a decent chance that Brian Dball, who historically has been someone who when
44:06he likes his guy, and when he sees his best player, features them, just gives a lot of production to him. There's a
44:11chance that he just decides that Tony Pard is the best running back on this team, he decides to feature him like he
44:16did Cam Scataboo last season. And even if he doesn't, Pard's going to be the lead back. He's going to get a ton of
44:21touches. He really is a good pick. Even if the Titans don't take that next step, he's still a great pick this season. Uh
44:27Roandre Stevenson. Uh as far as things stand right now, like I said, he is still the lead running back in New
44:33England. Um when all the chips were down on the table last season in the playoffs, uh he played at least 61% of
44:39the snaps in all four playoff games. He had touchs 13, 20, 25, and 12. So all the chips are down. Not that many months
44:47ago. He's the guy. Unless Trayvon Henderson steps it up in camp, it's probably going to be a repeat of last season. Uh New England improved their
44:56offensive line. They improved their wide receiver room. Like he's a really good discount. Uh but I will concede that like, you know, the team wants Tayvon to
45:06be the guy. Like they want that to happen. That's not ideal for your running back. They want the other guy to
45:11be the lead. Uh but also high contingent upside. You see an injury either one of these two, the other one's going to
45:16skyrocket in value. Uh and then finally, Jiren Price. Um I just really worry about the passing game role. I think Zachary had a really really good stat
45:24where he highlighted the concern.
45:27Everyone likes to say, well, he's playing behind Jeremiah Love. Of course, he didn't. Okay, but that has been the case for other running backs. We have
45:33used that excuse before for other running backs. Jarian Price's best season college reception share was 2.8%.
45:42That is super low. In Zachar's database since 2011, 48 running backs have had 5% or lower. How many of them do you think
45:52hit 10 points per game? 10 full PPR points per game in any of their first three seasons. That is not a high bar.
45:59That is like a mid-range running back three. So among 48 running backs with below a 5% best season college reception chair.
46:09One only one of them hit 10 full PPR points per game over the first three years of their career in just one of
46:16those years. And it was Derrick Henry.
46:18So unless we think Jarian Price is Derk Henry, it's not looking good. Again, we have used that excuse before. He's not a
46:27good pass catcher. It's unlikely he's used in the receiving game. Odds are it's going to be a committee and then odds are it's a committee. Then they add
46:34in Charbanet once he's healthy enough to play and Charban is the leadback. I almost never draft Price. I just don't see it this season. Tier six, Warren,
46:44Chuba, Harvey, Manungai, and Rico Dael.
46:47Uh, we're starting to get into a lot more concerns, but I will say I think I'm moving Jaylen Warren up because I
46:51was prepping for this video and I'm like, man, I like Warren. Like, I feel like he's just a really good pick this
46:56season. I prefer Warren over Rico just because the receiving role. Um, I don't know who's going to win early downs. I
47:01do think Rico is probably set up better uh because also, you know, they bring him in free agency. They clearly saw
47:06something they like. And the easiest way to use him is to have him be the lead running back on um early downs to say,
47:13"Okay, you know, Warren, you're going to be in this role we keep having you in of you're a change of pace back. You mix in
47:19uh for carries, but then you're using the red zone, you're used for receptions." Even if that's the case, uh look at all of the receptions he had.
47:26Like he was backing up Naji Harris for the first three years, still racks up 127 receptions through his first three seasons. Then Gainwell breaks out last
47:34year, but Warren still caught 40 balls on 45 targets. Um, we look at who the quarterback is, who the offensive system
47:42is centered around. Well, it's someone who's going to check down a ton, right?
47:46Pittsburgh dumped to running backs 132 times last season. San Francisco was the only team last season, not only in terms of like per play target shared
47:57running backs, uh, but total targets to the running back position, only team to surpass Pittsburgh. So, ton of dump offs available here. Warren has legitimate
48:06like 70 75 reception upside. It's not going to matter all that much how he projects on early downs at that point.
48:14And that's assuming Rico does lock up lock up that top job. What if we see uh Warren win that job or be in like a
48:21split in early downs and have 75 receptions? Lot of upside going this late. Uh people going to look at Eli Heiden Reich, but I mean I highly doubt
48:30he's going to have a role. It's Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers wants someone out there he trusts, has a long history of
48:35success. It's not going to be Eli out there. Um, Chuba Hubard after this, I don't draft Chuba that much. Um, if
48:40Brooks gets hurt again, then Chuba's probably going to pay off his ADP by a decent margin. Um, but, uh, if Brooks
48:47stays healthy, then Chuba is going to be unusable at times. And so, risk there.
48:52Uh, but you basically need Chuba to be featured because he's just not an efficient runner and the offense isn't that great. Um, he's not a player I
48:59draft that much. Personally, um I think the team wants Brooks to be that lead back and so I think they slowly ramp him
49:06up as the season goes on. That's not ideal for Trouer to be losing value over time because you're not starting him in
49:12week one. You don't draft him to be a starter. And so if he's going to lose value as the season goes on, that's not
49:16great. But we've said that before and then Brooks has torn his ACL. So if he tears his ACL a third time, uh then of
49:22course Trouba is going to be a decent pick. Uh but also Carolina has the hardest strength of schedule of any team
49:26this season. That's brutal for running backs unless you're prolific in the receiving game and Chuba is not. He's a career 5.1 yards per target. That is
49:34terrible. RJ Harvey after him. Dobbins is going to remain the lead back on early downs. Um, also just concerns me a
49:42little bit that the team viewed Harvey as the featured back last season, right?
49:46They watched it happen like the viewed as in like saw with their eyes. Um, because Dobbins goes down. And so we get
49:53all these games where Harvey's the guy.
49:55Uh, and then what do they do in the offseason? They're like, "Okay, uh, we need Dobbins back. Uh, and we need to
50:00draft Jonah Coleman round four." If they were watching Harvey in that role and were like, like what we saw, would they
50:06have done that? I don't know. And Jonah Coleman, 5'8", 220 pounds, good in the receiving game. I mean, he could be used
50:12in the red zone, he could be used as a pass catcher. All of a sudden, you're like, wait, where are the roles here?
50:16Dobbins is definitely the early down guy. We think Dobbins is passing downs.
50:21who think he's like, you know, red zone, but Coleman's good enough to do that as well. So, a little bit concerning. I
50:27think this is a huge one where we got to just know in camp. Um, but yeah, I I just don't trust it. They spread the
50:34ball around a lot as well. Shawn Payeyton's totally fine having multiple running backs. Um, I don't know. There's a lot of risk here. Um, his ADP is
50:42cratering, but it probably needs to fall a little bit more for me to get him. uh Kungai after I mentioned before uh
50:49there's risk here being a seventh round running back the unfortunate reality is the track record of successful seventh round running backs in the rookie season
50:59is really really bad beyond that uh maybe Mongai breaks the mold uh but you're kind of betting on it in these
51:06single-digit rounds like we're still in the single-digit rounds right now uh for reddraft leagues um I hope he hits uh but it's just every time a seventh round
51:15rookie running back has done something, they've fallen off after that. I do genuinely think he's good. Um I think the contingent upside is also awesome.
51:22We saw him go off when Swift was out uh for week last season. Um I still draft him sometimes in this range when I need
51:28a running back because the consent upside is so significant. Um but I I hate the fact that it was a seventh
51:35round pick. Uh the fact that the schedule is just so brutal. I mean that hurts him more than it hurts DeAndre
51:41Swift as I said before. Um, and just like while Swift is healthy, how much are you really going to play him? Like
51:47even if you were looking at him as like a by-week fill in, I mean, the odds are he's not getting that many touches. He's
51:52not going to go out there and have like five and a half yards per carry. There's plenty of other guys that can score
51:56touchdowns. So, the upside is Swift getting hurt and he does get drafted a little bit earlier than handcuffs. Uh, then finally this year, Rico Dowel. Um,
52:05I like Warren a lot more than Rico just because of those receptions. Uh to be fair to Rico though, over 1300 yards in
52:11back-to-back seasons on different teams.
52:13That's very difficult. Changing teams again though, so it's going to keep being difficult for Rico. Um he did straight up outplay Trouba Hubard last
52:20season and replaced him. Uh this will be a big battle to watch. If Rico goes out there and looks awesome in camp, I will
52:26move him up the rankings, but that will need to happen. Uh then finally, tier seven, Brooks, Gainwell, Dobbins, Cororm, White, Mason, and Katon
52:35Mitchell. Uh, for Jonathan Brooks, super boom bust, right? He legit has 12 touches in his career coming off back-to-back torn ACLs. The team seems
52:43confident, right? They let Rico walk.
52:45They didn't sign or draft anyone. He turns 23 the day I'm recording this. So, happy birthday, Jonathan Brooks. Um, as I said before, I think the team wants
52:53him to be the lead back. He's more explosive. He's better in the receiving game. Like, Chuba is not good. 49 running backs last season had at least
53:00100 rush attempts. Trier ranked last in explosive run rate, last in missed tackles forced per attempt, second to last in touchdown rate, third to last in
53:07yards after contact per attempt. His longest run was 14 yards on 134 carries.
53:12Like he's not that good. They want Brooks to be the guy. Can he stay healthy? No clue. Uh Kenny Gainwell after that racked up over a thousand
53:19yards, eight touchdowns last year, including 73 receptions. Of course, that was what we talked about. Pittsburgh threw running backs a ton. Not going to
53:27happen as high a rate in Tampa Bay. Um, I also just think it's it's a committee.
53:31Like truly, Buckyy's a good running back. Sean Tucker's probably the best third running back in the NFL, uh, it's just going to be a huge committee, but
53:37everyone has contingent upside. So, if you saw Bucky get injured again, well, now Gainwell is awesome. You saw Gainwell get injured, now Bucky is
53:45awesome. If you see Shan Tucker get injured, well, now both of these two are a little bit more viable as a fill in.
53:50Like, it's just when no one's injured, I don't know how much we're going to trust these guys. Uh, but Gainwell proved to
53:56be a really good running back last season. I like drafting him in this general range for that upside. Better than full PPR though. These rankings for
54:02the half PPR. Uh JK Dobbins after this.
54:05Uh more of a floor pick. So better in baseball. Uh as a guy where it's like you just need that baseline production.
54:12Maybe you um skip the position for a while. You just need that floor. And it's that floor from a seasonl long
54:18perspective. I know what's going to happen for Dobbitz. He's going to win the early down job and get some touchdowns, but not of receptions.
54:24There's no risk in that. We know that's going to happen. uh but he doesn't have the ceiling. So in a reddraft league,
54:30there's really no world where Dobbins has receptions, is someone that you're trusting every week as a locked in, loving it, running back, too. Um his
54:39floor is going to be annoyingly low. So we get into a reddraft league, it's not as good. Um you would need probably both
54:44Harvey and Jonah Coleman to get injured for him to rack up receptions, but it's nice that the team loves him, the
54:50coaches love him. Uh he's many of the coaches like favorite player, so he's getting the ball. It's just, you know, more of like a standard lead pick,
54:56honestly. Uh Blake Cororm, what I talked about with Kyrie, basically repeat that here. If they're headed for a 50-50 split, and even if Kairen barely remains
55:06the lead in passing situations, if the Rams are projected for the most points in the NFL and they have a great
55:11defense, the contingent upside is also crazy high. He's probably a running back one if Kyron gets injured, he's a pretty good pick going this late. Uh the
55:19problem is if there's not that injury, Cormma has 15 receptions in 34 career games and they're inefficient. So when you look at someone, I'm not going to
55:27compare him to Derrick Henry here, but someone like Derrick Henry who doesn't have receptions. Derrick Henry is also super efficient on his receptions.
55:34Somehow uh Blake Cororm is hyperly inefficient on the very limited receptions. He does get 4.3 yards per target, absurdly low. He needs that 5050
55:45split. He needs a lot more touches to be actually someone you're trusting in fantasy. Uh but again, great offense and contingent upside is awesome. Rashad
55:52White up next. Obvious passing down running back for the Commanders.
55:56Unfortunately, you don't want the passing down running back for the Commanders. No team threw to running backs at a lower rate than the Rams, but
56:02no team through to running backs fewer times in total than the Commanders. 56 running back targets last year for the Commanders. Uh they're bottom seven in
56:112024 as well. Um, don't really know what to make of this backfield too. Is JCM gonna be a thing? Is Kron Allen going to
56:18be a thing? Mostly in a void. Probably a three running back committee with very limited targets going to the running back position. Uh, Jordan Mason up next.
56:26Reports are he'll be the clear lead running back, but we kind of need to confirm that in training camp. Kevin Oonnell is being underrated this season
56:33after McCarthy tanked the offense last year. What if the Vikings offense is actually good under Kyler Murray? They still have a great defense. They play in
56:41a dome. Jordan Mason has a career 5.1 yards per carry. There was truly nothing he could do at times last season. He was
56:47being efficient. He was doing great as a running back, but when the offense falls apart around you, I don't know. I think
56:53people are just kind of overlooking the team in general. Like all of their players, Jefferson's a great pick.
56:58Addison, Kyler, Mason, they're all really good picks this season because Kevin Oonnell is a really good coordinator, head coach, but obviously
57:07he's doing the play calling and all those things, designing the plays. This offense has a ton of upside on average.
57:13Maybe some of these guys fail, but the ceiling case here is exceptional, especially when you add in the defense for Mason. Um, not going to have many
57:21receptions. Aaron Jones is still there, but they plan on limiting Jones somewhat this season to keep him fresher and healthier. He was like career lows last
57:29season in efficiency. I think that, you know, his touches go down. Uh, Deont Clayborn's not going to be a thing. I
57:36really think a ton of touches are coming for Jordan Mason. If this offense improves, there's a lot of upside here.
57:42Then finally, Katon Mitchell. Um, I'm all in on the Chargers this season. As I said before, uh, Mike McDaniel, when you
57:48when your, uh, offensive coordinator is printing off wanted posters for you, maybe draft that player in fantasy when they're going as like your last running
57:57back pick. Um, lot of similarities between him and Devon Chan in terms of the explosiveness, the speed, the body build, uh, the, um, touches in college.
58:07Like, a lot of that stuff is the same.
58:09We just haven't seen it yet for um Katon staying healthy in the NFL. But look at the GPS tracking. I mean, if you guys
58:14want to really know how fast this kid is, he hit 20 plus miles per hour seven times last year. That was the most of
58:20any player in the NFL. And it was on 59 carries. Think about that for a seven.
58:2559 touches. 59 touches for Katon Mitchell. Seven times he hit 20 plus miles per hour, the most of any player in the league. That's crazy. He had 196
58:36touches in college. He had 228 touches.
58:38is another year in college. Like he has stayed healthy in the past. He has gotten touches in the past and he
58:42doesn't need 300 touches, right? He's like your last running back pick. Highly explosive player, great offense. He's potentially going to be in this Devon
58:50Han role. I pick him every single time in this range. So, if you want to see my exact ranking on every player as it also
58:59changes because this is the last running back rankings video this season as it changes throughout the summer. I update it every single day to keep up to date
59:05with the latest news. See that my website the fantasyfootadvice.com.
59:10Thank you all for watching. Please leave a like if you are still here. Please subscribe to the channel on YouTube and
59:15Spotify if you are new. But I'll catch you all on the next one.