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Top 40 Running Back Rankings & Tiers - 2026 Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

59 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 22, 2026
Published
Wed, July 22, 2026
20
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
D'Andre SwiftAshton JeantyBreece HallBucky IrvingChase BrownChristian McCaffreyDavid MontgomeryElijah MooreJames CookJavonte WilliamsJeremiyah LoveJoe WilliamsJonathan TaylorJosh Jacobs
Player analysis

Player insights

20

Ashton Jeanty

PositiveProjection9:03

Despite a disappointing rookie season narrative, Jeanty posted 1,321 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 55 receptions—a solid fantasy season. Speaker emphasizes the offense collapsed around him and that improved QB play, Bowers' return, and better coaching will reduce defensive focus on Jeanty alone. He projects 350+ touches, 15 TDs, 60+ receptions (likely 65+) and could be in the conversation for a top-3 pick next season. Speaker rates him as a mid-to-late first-round target, confident to take him after McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor, though would take Josh Jacobs Smith-Njigba over him. The role is massive; situation cannot get worse.

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Breece Hall

PositiveValue25:42

Tier 3 RB ranked as an awesome round 3 pick at the 2-3 turn. Improved offensive environment with Gino Smith replacing Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor/Brady Cook (described as 'gross last season'); Garrett Wilson returning to play more than 7 games; additions of Omar Cooper and Sadi; full offseason with Adonai Mitchell. 25-year-old with 1,350+ yards in three straight seasons, super involved in receiving game with 300-touch upside and 50+ receptions potential. Projected as league winner in round 3.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeValue41:58

Irving is placed in tier five of the running back rankings.

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Chase Brown

PositiveProjection18:18

Ranked 2nd among RBs discussed. Chase Brown has much less early-down upside than Kenneth Walker with rush-attempt ceiling around 250 (vs. Walker's 300+). TD upside capped at ~15 due to Bengals' pass-heavy red-zone approach with Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins; unlikely to hit 1,500+ rushing yards. However, he offers an exceptional safety profile with guaranteed reception volume and consistent role, making him a very safe pick near the round-two turn despite lower ceiling than Walker.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection3:18

Ranked 1.03 overall RB. Coming off career-high 413 touches last season; turned 30 in June. Most likely player to finish as #1 scoring RB if healthy for full 17 weeks, but also most likely among top backs to miss significant time due to age and touch volume. Has 100-reception ceiling; receiving work alone would have ranked him RB20 or WR11 last season. Even with potential rushing efficiency regression, receiving upside makes touch concerns less critical. Should be drafted after Jamar Chase and Puka Nacua but before other tier-two backs. Will be the lead back with guaranteed rushing attempts and touchdown opportunities even if averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and will project as a top running back weekly with ton of points in both half and full PPR formats; even with Mike Evans taking red zone touchdowns, the 49ers will score plenty of touchdowns and McCaffrey remains very safe.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeProjection36:47

Three straight seasons of at least 250 touches with career-high 1386 yards and 10 touchdowns last year; room for receiving work to increase from last season. Very strong role with receptions, early down work, and red zone role. Minimal systemic risk in this tier range. Second year in Ben Johnson system is a positive for everyone. Chicago's brutal schedule actually helps Swift more than Jaylen Mungai because they'll be trailing more often in competitive games, creating more passing opportunities. Monty and Swift are the two guys to target in this range.

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NegativeRole38:06

David Montgomery prefers Swift in this tier range with strong role assessment; he will have receptions, early down work, and red zone role with minimal systemic risk.

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David Montgomery

NegativeValue34:13

Ultimate safe pick in tier four for risk-averse drafters. Texans have amazing defense and will win games via ground game and efficiency, putting Monty in line for ton of carries with no early-down or goal-line threat from Woody Marks. Career 6.6 yards per target with 36 and 24 targets over last two years while playing alongside Jir Gibbs (more talented backup than Marks). Expected to get touches in passing situations. Very healthy throughout career, minimizing injury risk. If landed in round five, that's amazing value; probably goes closer to four-five turn.

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Elijah Moore

NegativeRole33:31

Alvin Kamara restructuring to stay with Saints at $6M this year will crater ETN's value. Kamara will be used in passing situations and two-minute/four-minute drill offense—roles ETN needed to hit at round-three ADP. Saints projected 23rd in PPG (only 1 PPG behind Broncos and Vikings), limiting upside despite second-easiest schedule and dome games.

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James Cook

NegativeProjection11:31

Positioned as the safe alternative to Ashton Jeanty in late first round. Cook posted 1,900+ yards and 14 TDs last season, with 18 TDs two years ago; 32 TDs and 32–33 receptions over the last two years. However, his reception ceiling (32–33 per year) caps his upside compared to backs like Gibbs, Barkley, McCaffrey, and Jeanty who can reach 100+ receptions. Cook is boom-bust week-to-week: historically much worse in losses than wins due to limited receiving role, though no systemic risk exists. Buffalo will score heavily and Cook will have multiple blowup games. Opening schedule (Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots, Rams) is brutal and may create early-season volatility. David Montgomery views him as a slight avoid at current ADP despite ranking him above Saquon Barkley.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveValue29:17

Coming off 1300+ yards and 13 touchdowns last season; another safe round 3 pick. Rush attempts and touchdowns secure with no backup threat to early-down workload. Passing-down work uncertain pending Jaden Blue's development; team wants Blue as change-of-pace back in passing situations but unclear if it materializes. Lower ceiling than Bree Hall or Jeremiah Love because receptions unlikely to expand. Finished 13th in PPG last season despite everything going perfect; role unlikely to expand and may reduce. Still benefits from great offense with guaranteed early-down workload and touchdowns.

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Jeremiyah Love

NegativeValue27:04

Drafted 3rd overall to Cardinals; 99th percentile speed at 6'2"; only 21 years old with 96th percentile college dominator rating and elite receiving skills. However, Arizona is projected to score the fewest points per game in the NFL; second-hardest schedule overall and hardest schedule through week 14; lowest implied PPG of any team. Cardinals paid backup RB Algier $12.25M ($8M guaranteed), indicating a clear role for the backup in the red zone. Despite strong supporting cast (McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), team dysfunction and backup investment create significant risk. David Montgomery prefers Breece Hall over Love despite Love typically going before Hall in ADP.

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Joe Williams

PositiveValue25:42

Tier 3 ranking in a really strong round 3 tier; core group of RBs to target in round 3 if you need a running back.

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Jonathan Taylor

NegativeProjection0:00

Ranked in tier one alongside Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey, though speaker notes tier one could be split with Gibbs and Robinson in tier one and Taylor and McCaffrey in tier two. Taylor finished the first 10 weeks of last season on pace for 2,378 yards and 29 touchdowns with 17 actual touchdowns through week 10, making him the number one and most valuable player in fantasy through the first 10 games; however, he ranked 24th in points per game in the final seven weeks due to systemic risk from Daniel Jones' torn ACL recovery, loss of Pitman, and natural regression. Still ranked second in tier after McCaffrey due to less systemic risk in San Francisco's offense, but Taylor remains capable of 30 touchdowns with high upside on the ground and sufficient receiving work.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeProjection35:37

Locked into so many touches and so much touchdown upside that he hits in all three areas and will be good in fantasy even if inefficient; only has Marshon Lloyd behind him as backup competition. Suspension uncertainty is the primary concern—likely four weeks but could be longer or not happen at all, making draft timing difficult. If not suspended, would be tier three (round three) running back. Efficiency did drop last season but volume upside remains. If not suspended, will pay off third round ADP; however, suspension risk forces downward tier adjustment.

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Justice Hill

PositiveValue22:18

Strong handcuff pick to Derek Henry in round 18 on Underdog, offering significant upside if Henry's workload is managed due to age and touch concerns. With Henry's receptions declining and the Ravens potentially scaling back his passing-game involvement, Justice Hill represents a high-value late-round flier for handcuff upside.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection16:24

Ranked 1st among RBs discussed. Walker has zero competition for touches on early downs and at the goal line, carrying legitimate 300+ rush attempt and 15 touchdown upside. Kansas City's run-heavy offense after years of positional struggles means every red-zone carry will go to Walker. Patrick Mahomes' torn ACL recovery means the team will lean on rushing and dumpoffs rather than scrambles, benefiting Walker's touch volume. If he receives 40+ receptions while maintaining goal-line and early-down work, he becomes a league winner. However, he's never exceeded 255 touches in a season despite being the clear best RB at times, suggesting potential workload management due to durability concerns or unknown role in new system.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveProjection14:28

David Montgomery likes Barkley at the 1-2 turn. Philadelphia has the easiest schedule in the league weeks 1-14, which will generate positive game scripts and high playoff probability, making him great for securing playoff entry despite the hardest schedule weeks 15-17. Kevin Patulo's departure opens up the offense, and there's optimism surrounding potential offensive improvement. Barkley won't repeat his 2,300-yard 2024 performance, but works well in multiple draft builds, including pairing with elite WRs like CD Lamb or Justin Jefferson.

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Stefon Diggs

NegativeMatchup13:20

Diggs' presence in the Buffalo offense supports the expectation that Buffalo will score a ton of touchdowns, which benefits James Cook's floor and creates multiple blowup-game opportunities for Cook despite his boom-bust profile.

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Tony Pollard

NegativeValue41:58

Pollard is placed in tier five of the running back rankings.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

539
0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here back in that video. Time to release my pre-training camp running back rankings.
0:04These are obviously going to change a ton as we work our way through the summer, but we'll take a look at how I
0:09have things ranked today. Going to be a long one, so sit back, hit the like button, get things started off with tier
0:14one, Gibbs, Bejon, CMC, JT. If you felt like making many tiers here, I just didn't want to make like 50 tiers,
0:23right? Uh if you want to do Gibbs and Bejon in tier one, CMC and JT in tier two, go ahead. I wanted to try and
0:30include a couple more players into different tiers, but um yeah, that's how I have that ranked for Gibbs. It's just pretty obvious. David Montgomery is
0:38gone. Pacheco is obviously there.
0:40Obviously going to get some touches, but is obviously also worse than Dave Montgomery by, I would say, a relatively significant margin. Uh 1,800 plus yards,
0:5018 plus touchdowns in back-to-back season for Gibbs. And again, that's with David Montgomery there. The Lions have the easiest schedule in the NFL this
0:59season. Uh, and if you want a differentiator, you say, um, when we go over Bjon, Nick, Gibbs, Bejon, they're so close. Both exceptional ceilings,
1:08great floors. What do we always default to? Team. What team are they on? I trust the Lions offense more than I trust the
1:15Falcons. So, I would say Gibbs, easy 101 in all formats this season. Locked in receptions, touchdowns, and rushing. He hits in all three areas. He has upside
1:26in all three areas. I trust the offense.
1:28They play in a dome, easy schedule. It's just kind of easy to take him 101. And then I would say Bejon is the 102 in all
1:34formats. Um, also a great pick. Also has crazy high upside. It's just that do you trust the Falcons? It's going to be some
1:42combination of Tua and Michael Penn Jr.
1:46Um, we don't 100% know if either one of them's going to be all that good, but uh, it's not like he's had amazing
1:52quarterback play thus far and he's been exceptional. 1887 yards in 2024, 2,298 yards last season, 15 and 11 touchdowns,
2:03though. So, we talked about 18 plus touchdowns. I think it was 18 and 20 touchdowns for gives backto-back seasons. Uh 15 and 11 for Bejon. So, a
2:12little bit of a lower touchdown ceiling because he's on the Falcons, not the Lions. Uh but still the easy 102 in all
2:19formats. He's never missed a game in his career. I always mention that people like, "No, there was that one time." No,
2:23he played one snap in that game uh where he had like a migraine or something like that. I don't know why they pulled him
2:29onto the field in the fourth quarter.
2:30Maybe to say he played in the game. Uh but yeah, he he has not missed a game in his career besides that one game where
2:36he played one snap. Um and going back to the touchdowns, we don't know like maybe Alier is just like I mean we know Alier
2:44is not an amazing running back, right?
2:46But maybe he's like pretty good. Uh, and the team just really liked him and the loss of Algier replacing him with Brian
2:54uh Robinson. Maybe because Alier was taking meaningful work in the red zone especially, maybe that does unlock a little bit of a higher touchdown ceiling
3:02for uh Bjun Robinson. Um, again panics to a not ideal, but if you're going to get 350 plus touches, you're going to be
3:10game script proof. You can score from anywhere in the field. You get a ton of receptions, touchdown potential, and rushing. Hitting all three areas. It
3:17just makes sense. Very, very safe. Both these two easily in their prime, highly athletic. They're going to be amazing this season if they stay healthy. After
3:27them, number three, CMC coming off a career-high 413 touches last season, was the second oldest player ever to have that many touches. Uh, turned 30 in
3:37June. Ultimately, we know what CMC is. If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy and plays a full 17 weeks, he's the most likely player to
3:48finish as the number one scoring running back. He's also the most likely running back among these top backs to get injured in miss significant time. Um
3:56theoretically, you have that risk of yeah, he's turned 30 now, he's got a ton more touches, he's coming off a 400
4:03touch season. Um that leads to potential for regression in efficiency. The thing that I'll say to that is he has a 100
4:11reception ceiling. So when you have that in your range of outcomes, efficiency starts to matter a lot less. If we were
4:19worried about the touches, if we were worried about the touchdowns, now all of a sudden it's like, okay, he needs to
4:23average, you know, at least four and a half, 4.6 yards per carry. He needs to be somewhat efficient in the receiving
4:28game. He would have been the running back 20 or the wide receiver 11 if you only counted his receiving work last
4:36season. It's only like the receptions, yards, touchdowns. If you gave him zero rush attempts, zero rushing touchdowns, he has he's the running back 20. So
4:46again, doesn't really matter if you say, "Nick, I really think he's going to be less efficient on the ground this season. Yards per carry going to drop.
4:55Um maybe you're worried about Mike Evans scoring extra touchdowns in the red zone." Those are concerns, but you should only be so concerned because if
5:03he had zero rush attempts last season, he'd have been the running back 20.
5:08Even in half PPR, I just think like you're taking him after. I think it's after uh Chase Brown or Chase um Jamar
5:16Chase and Puka. I think you go Gibbs, Bejon, Jamar Chase, Puka, McAffrey. Um I just think you got to take McAffrey once
5:24they're off the board for that ceiling.
5:26He's not going to have zero rush attempts even if he averages like 3.8. 8 yards per carry. He's going to be the
5:30lead back on this team. He's going to score touchdowns. Even if Mike Evans, who I do think is going to have a huge
5:35role in the red zone. Even if he does come in, have that huge role, takes touchdowns away. McCaffrey is just the
5:41other player they're going to look at, the team's still going to score plenty of touchdowns. So, he's very, very safe from a when he goes out there, he's
5:47probably going to project as a top running back every single week. You're going to get a ton of points. Even in
5:50half PPR, uh, in full PPR, he's going to smash, but even in half PR, you're going a ton of points. Um, you're basically
5:55fading an injury, and we can't predict it. just don't know if it's going to happen. Uh but throw it for me. Then JT
6:01finishing out this tier uh over the first 10 weeks last season on pace for 2,378 yards and 29 touchdowns. He had 17
6:12touchdowns scored through week 10. Um Bejan only scored 11 times in 17 weeks last season. So I understand that people look at it and say, "Oh, that's just
6:22touchdown variance, right?" But there's only so many players who are capable of scoring 17 touchdowns over the first 10 weeks of the NFL season. Very, very few
6:31are capable of it through 17 weeks. So to do it through 10 is absolutely crazy.
6:37I really think people just forget how good the Colts were when Daniel Jones was healthy. But then everyone's production just cratered when they had
6:46to go to Philip Rivers. Was it Riley Leonard? Something like that. um terrible backup quarterback play, right?
6:53Offense cratered. They were literally first in the NFL power rankings and then don't even make the playoffs after he goes down. Uh and then you see uh
7:03Jonathan Taylor 24th in points per game in the final seven weeks. So 17 touchdowns over the first 10 weeks. By far the number one player, by far the
7:13most valuable player in all of fantasy through the first 10 games. Uh and then he's 24th among running backs in points
7:19per game over the final seven seven weeks. So um reason you don't have him first is the systemic risk, right?
7:25Daniel Jones coming off the torn ACL or Tony Achilles um they lose Pitman and they don't really replace him with anyone and so there's just like some
7:33risk with this offense that well maybe Daniel Jones is a little bit worse than last season coming off of the Achilles
7:38injury, maybe losing Pitman and you know maybe they bring in Diggs or Keenan but whoever they have is going to be worse
7:45than Pitman. Maybe having those two factors does kind of regress the offense and then maybe there's just natural regression as well because it was so
7:51good over the first 10 weeks last season. Uh that the offense just simply isn't as good. But even saying that he's
7:57still 27, he has multiple 20 touchdown seasons in his career. Uh they can talk all they want in July about limiting his
8:04workload, but these coaches jobs are on the line when they go out there and need to win games and Jonathan Taylor's on
8:09the field and then they look at these backups and they're like, "Oh my gosh, like this is a huge drop off. he's going
8:14to be getting the touches. He's not going to go out there and be like, "Oh, we got to keep it fresh. Give him 15
8:17touches a game." No. When they're winning these games, he's gonna have 25 27 touches. Um what McCaffrey does as a receiver still puts him over Jonathan
8:26Taylor. Uh and there's just less systemic risk in the offense for San Francisco than there is Indianapolis.
8:33But I mean, you get into that mid uh first round. I still want JT. Like even when you look at these wide receivers,
8:39like you look at like JSN, Ammonra, they're great, but why not just lock up Jonathan Taylor, someone capable, literally capable of 30 touchdowns. Uh
8:49crazy high upset on the ground as well.
8:50Still enough receptions. Look at work in the receiving game. I don't know. I feel you just take him after McAffrey. Tier
8:56two, Genty, James Cook, Saquon, Ken Walker, Chase Brown, Hampton, Henry, and Han. Uh we did a video going over this
9:06stuff. I Genty and James Cook weren't in the video, but I talked about them in the video saying that's why or saying
9:12why I have that rank. So, there's like a 25 minute video going over just this tier. So, we'll try and go a little bit
9:18faster. I always say that and then we never do. Uh, but I'll try to go a little bit faster in this year because
9:23again, you can watch a detailed video about this exact tier. Uh Asha Genty, I get being hesitant after a very disappointing rookie season, but also he
9:33had 1321 yards and 10 touchdowns and 55 receptions. So, it wasn't like he went out there and had 900 yards and 10
9:39receptions and like wasn't viable in fantasy, right? He still had a pretty darn good season as a rookie and a good
9:45season when you consider the offense fell apart around him, right? He's going to have improved quarterback play this season. Bowowers being back is massive.
9:52Genty was the only player on the field that defenses were even somewhat concerned about. When you improve quarterback play, when you improve
10:00coaching, when you bring Bowowers just back onto the field, defense is like, "Okay, there's another superstar out there we have to worry about. We can't
10:08just load everything into stopping Ashen Genty. We have to worry a little bit more about the quarterback play." Uh, and then just like even uh, you know,
10:16that's from an efficiency efficiency standpoint, even not thinking about it that way. Well, if they just score more points and they're just on the field
10:24sustaining drives longer, that's also going to really help Genty. But when they're going out there in the three and out, three and out, three and out, and
10:32then they're scoring 10 points, well, if he didn't have the touchdown, it's like he can have 20 touches, but like if
10:38everyone's focusing on you and you can't get spiked plays and there's no touchdowns to go around, that's a really difficult environment for a running
10:46back. Uh the role is massive. Um the situation truly just cannot get any worse. They're going to run a ton of
10:52heavy personnel sets. That's a positive for him. Uh he's still a 23-year-old featured running back in today's NFL. He has the upside for 350 plus touches, 15
11:00touchdowns, 60 plus receptions, probably 65 plus receptions. Um easily could next season be in the conversation for a top three pick in all fantasy. Um I get
11:12people thinking that there's a lot of risk here. I truly believe he's definitely worth taking uh in kind of that like mid to late first round range.
11:20I'm confident enough to definitely take him once um McAffrey and JT are off the board, but I would take like JSN over
11:28him. James Cook uh the safe pick. So basically, if you're in that late first round range and you want that running
11:35back and gent on the board, if you are someone who internally just needs to avoid all levels of risk in the first
11:42like three to four rounds and just say everyone's good. I just don't want to screw this up. You take Cook over Genty.
11:49I'm going to take Genty over Cook because I am someone who leans towards that ceiling, leans into that uncertainty and says, "Well, if Genty
11:56works out, he blows past James Cook and Fantasy, but if you want the safety, go with Cook. He's coming off over 1,900
12:02yards, 14 touchdowns. He scored 18 touchdowns two years ago. Remember when we were talking about James Cook and we were like, he is great, but he can't
12:10score touchdowns, right? Well, he's got a lot of touchdowns in the last two seasons. 32 touchdowns over the last two years. Um, he's more on par with JT in
12:19the receiving game than I think people realize. He has 32 and 33 receptions over the last two years. And so that's
12:26just going to have um it's going to cap his ceiling somewhat in fantasy, you know, at least compared to because you
12:33know, compared to the running backs going after him. No, but compared to Gibbs, Bejon, uh McCaffrey, Genty, some of those backs that um have that just
12:42crazy high reception ceiling, they can reach a level that Cook just can't get to. Like unless he has 2,000 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns, if you're
12:50going to be at, you know, 32, 33 receptions, and someone else is capable of 100 receptions, you just can't make up that difference with the yards and
13:00touchdowns. Um, but the thing is, again, there's no systemic risk, like zero. We know Buffalo is going to score a ton of
13:05touchdowns. We know that Cook is going to have multiple blowup games. He's a little boom bust. And so, from a seasonl
13:12long perspective, there's no risk and we know he's going to be great. from a week- to-eek basis, uh, he's basically going to go off in wins and he's going
13:18to have a little bit of lower floor in losses because of the receiving game role. Um, we look historically, not even
13:23last season, just throughout his career, much worse in losses than wins. Of course, that's many running backs, but it's not every running back, right? It's
13:30not McAffrey, it's not Gibbs, it's um, not Bejian. Like, these backs don't have huge swings in their production. James Cook is like a high-end running back,
13:40one uh at times the most valuable running back in all fantasy in wins, in losses. He's just simply not as good uh
13:47in in fantasy. Um opening schedule of the season at the Texans verse the Lions vers Chargers versus the Patriots at the
13:56Rams. That is a brutal opening schedule.
13:59Those are all games where we're going to actually question if they're going to win. They're not going to go 0 and5. My
14:05guess is they win at least three of those, but those are some brutal defenses. Some really good offenses the other side. And so there's a chance that
14:14you like James Cook, but that realistically if we kind of transported oursel into week three, week four, maybe you're better off trading for him. So I
14:22think he's going to be in the trade video uh for a B low running back because the opening schedule is so
14:28brutal and he does underperform more in those games. Uh, so personally, I think he's a little bit more of an avoid, but
14:35I'd still take him over Saquon. Uh, Saquon up next. Um, just I understand last season was brutal, right? I drafted him in one of my teams last season and
14:45it was not very fun, but uh Philly easiest schedule in the league uh weeks 1 through 14. Hardest schedule in the
14:53league 15 through 17. And I'm having a tough time kind of balancing that in my mind. um he'll help you get into the
15:00playoffs and so weeks one through 14 if they have an easy schedule and Kevin Patulo being gone opens up this offense
15:06Shawn Manion in unknown but there's a lot of optimis optimism surrounding him if this offense you know takes that big leap from what we saw last year and this
15:15defense as good as it's probably going to be it's going to be a very good defense easily top three and their
15:20schedule's easy like you combine all of that there's going to be a lot of really positive game scripts weeks one through
15:2414 you're probably if you draft him going to make the playoffs at a high rate just based off that one decision.
15:29Like he's going to be really good 1 through 14. Technically, all that matters though is weeks 15 through 17, like the playoff weeks. But it's I I
15:37just don't know. I don't know what the correct way of viewing that is. Do you want to take him and just elevate your
15:43chances of getting the playoffs because then anything can happen in the playoffs? Or are you scared because yes, he'll be great for 1 through 14, but the
15:49playoffs are all that technically matter. You still got to win and he'll have tougher matchups there. I don't know what the answer is. Uh personally
15:56though, I really like taking him at that one two turn. Um he's not going to go back to his like, you know, 2,300 yard
16:02uh performance from 2024. Um but the game scripts are going to be really really good. I think he's just awesome in multiple builds. Whether you want to
16:11double dip at running back, if you go like Genti Saquon, that's awesome. Uh but also if you really like CD Lamb, you
16:17really like Justin Jefferson, taking one of them at the end of round one to pair with uh Saquon Barkley, that also
16:24unlocks a great ceiling. So, I think he's just great in multiple builds. Uh, really like him at the turn. Uh, Ken
16:29Walker after him. Zero zero competition for touches on early downs and at the goal line. So, he carries legitimate 300 rush attempt, 15 touchdown upside. Uh,
16:41the only question is will they feature him? Um, but I think given the ADP, given the ranking here, you don't need
16:47that. So, you just need him to be like somewhat used in the receiving game, which he will be. He's going to have
16:52screen passes. he'll have receptions on early downs. So, that's not a huge concern. It's more like, you know, are we talking about him as like a first
17:00round pick next season? Because if he has even 40 receptions and they use him in the passing game, then I mean, he's
17:07going to be a league winner, right?
17:08Because he's going to get all that goal line work, all that early down work, and you add in receptions, that ceiling is
17:13going to be awesome. Also, because I think they're going to lean on him a lot. Obviously, like they don't want Mahomes scrambling coming off the torn
17:19ACL, so that's good for dumpoffs. They don't want him dropping back 45 times a game. That's good for the rush attempts
17:25for Ken Walker. Um, we know that running back has been an issue for Kansas City for a couple years now. They just really
17:32haven't been able to figure out the position, but they paid him a ton of money, so he's a guy they want to lean
17:35on. Um, so a lot of factors in his way or and ahead of him. I would say one thing to like pause concern for is he's
17:44never had more than 255 touches in a season despite at times being very clearly the best running back. Is that Seattle saying we don't think he can
17:53handle this full workload? We would love it if he was featured, but we think he'll break down because he has broken
17:58down at times. I don't know. So, there's some risk with that. There's some risk in that. We just don't know the role as
18:03well because he's changing teams. Uh there's some risk that like if they do decide to limit his workload in any way.
18:08All the backups are pass catchers. And so, the easiest way to limit that workload is to throw the pass catchers onto the field in passing situations.
18:16And we still want him out there for that upside uh in those situations. So, some risk uh but he's still just a great pick
18:23this season. Uh Chase Brown after him uh much less early down upside than Ken Walker. Very unlikely to hit even 250
18:31rush attempts whereas again Ken Walker could hit 300. Um so that basically I think that's the differentiator as to why uh we also think about the touchdown
18:40upside. I think he absolutely could blow past um Ken Walker, but I think you'd need an unlucky season for Ken Walker.
18:46Like every time they get close to the end zone for Ken Walker and they run the ball, it's going to be Ken Walker.
18:52Technically, when they get in close in Cincinnati, I mean, they're throwing it to Chase. They're throwing it to Higgins. Like, they're they're not an
18:59offense that needs to run the ball when they get in close. So, there's a little bit more risk. Um, even though the
19:04Bengals going to be amazing, just slightly more risk uh that that Chase Brown can't hit that like 15 touchdown ceiling if everyone stays healthy
19:11though. We just don't really know uh in this team because they always suffer injuries. It's always either Higgins or or uh Jamar Chase seems to always be
19:19injured or quarterback play. Um Chase Brown's actually been the the consistent guy. So, I still like Ken Walker because if the receptions come with him, that
19:27ceiling is so much higher because you can just blow past him on early downs.
19:31Um but I mean, I have Chase Brown here because he's also an exceptional pick and he's very safe. So, this is kind of
19:37another one. Ken Walker is a little bit more risky if you want to avoid that risk. We know what Chase Brown is. We
19:41know what this offense is. We know what his role is. We know the reception is going to be there. But we know
19:44Cincinnati is going to score a ton of points. Like he's not going to run for 1500 plus yards like some of the many of
19:50the running backs ahead of him can. Uh and he can only have so many receptions when you play with Jamar Chase and T.
19:56Higgins, but because he hits in every area and because I know he's going to have production in all those areas, very
20:03very safe pick near that turn into round two. Uh Amaran Hampton after him. League winning upside if we are wrong about
20:10Katon Mitchell. I just don't think we are wrong about Katon Mitchell as we'll get to at the end of this video. Uh Mike
20:16McDaniel hung wanted posters for Katon Mitchell and Alec Engold in the GM's office. Like he clearly envisions a role
20:25for Katon Mitchell. Um Katon has many of the same traits as Devon Achan. Again, we'll get to Katon Mitchell. Um but the
20:35upside's still crazy. I mean truly, even if Katon gets eight to 10 touches per week, even he gets like 12 touches per
20:41week, this run game could have so much production that there's still plenty of touchdowns, plenty of rushing yards, and plenty of receptions to go around. I
20:49think that's another thing people overlook. They kind of view Hampton, they're like, "Oh, he's not really a pass catcher." Well, Greg Roman offense
20:54is never throw to running backs, and so their target share for the running back position is going to go way up. Uh the
21:01offensive line is also going to be healthier. Um, I just I don't want my love for Katon Mitchell to distract from
21:07the fact that Hampton is still a rock solid pick if you can get him in kind of like the middle of round two. I don't
21:12love him as much at the turn, the one-two turn, but he's a great pick in the middle of the second round. Um, I
21:18think he goes behind these guys because I am worried Katon's going to steal touches and I'm just not worried about any of the running backs ahead of him
21:24stealing touches. But even if that happens, you could see, you know, Katon have a ton of touches and Hampton still finishes like a top five running back
21:31because this offense is so productive.
21:32Uh, the offensive line has improved, the coaching has improved, like everything has improved. And Hayden's a great running back. Like, don't overlook the
21:38fact that he is a freak of nature. Uh, speaking of freaking natures, Derek Henry up next, 11th in points per game
21:45uh, before his week 17 nuke last season.
21:47I think some people have viewed my ranking on him as low, but I'm ranking him literally what he did last year
21:53before dropping the nuke in week 17. Uh, he turns 33 in January. He now has over 3,000 career touches including the
22:01playoffs. Um like the the receptions are I would say the biggest concern for uh Derk Henry and the touch. I I'd say two. It's the
22:12touches, the age, which go together, the correlated obviously, and the receptions. I don't want to bet against Derrick Henry, which is basically why I
22:19have him, what he did last season.
22:22But you have to wonder, right? reception is going from 33 to 28 to 19 to 15. And it's not injury related, like not miss
22:30games related. He's just straight up being less involved in receiving game.
22:33You have to think, they look at him, they say, "Okay, you're turning 33 over 3,000 career touches. You're still amazing, but we want to use you on early
22:40downs. We don't need to use you in the passing game. They continue to scale that back. Does he have 10 receptions
22:45through 17 weeks this season in order to like keep him fresh? Makes complete sense they'd want to do that, right?
22:52keep using him a ton of the ground at the goal line, just don't use him in passing situations. Um, I think that is
22:58going to happen. That's why I also think that um, Justice Hill's a really strong pick on underdog in like round 18. Um,
23:06so it's just it's one concern when you have Derrick Henry is a floor of 12 touchdowns, a ceiling of 250 and four
23:13every time he steps onto the field. But if we're going to project like 0.7 receptions every week and you know that's just going to like somewhat cap
23:23what he can do um and somewhat just like limit um basically increase the risk every week. He could go out there and
23:30have 15 carries for 100 yards but in a full PPR format that's 10 points if he has one target for zero receptions. And
23:36he literally over the final month last season had one target. He didn't have a catch over the last month last year. And
23:43so if we go into this year, what if we look at his game logs and we're like, my gosh, you have eight receptions this
23:48year. Like that's a possibility. And if he doesn't have that 250 and four game, we can see the the fantasy production
23:55slide even if the early on production is still good. Uh then Devon Chan finishing out this tier. Um it's just the risk
24:02with him. Ben, awesome. So thousand yards, 11 touchdowns as a rookie, 1500 yards, 12 touchdowns year two, 1,800 yards, 12 touchdowns in year three, 78
24:13and 67 receptions over the last two seasons. Uh my only worry with him is this offense is going to be horrible.
24:20Also, Tua is just the checkown king and so they designed the entire offense around keeping him healthy, getting the ball out quickly. That is not how this
24:29offense is going to look this year.
24:31Malik Willis is going to look deeper downfield. He's going to scramble a ton.
24:35That's really going to limit how much he throws to the running back position. All the data tells us hyper mobile quarterbacks don't throw to running
24:41backs at nearly the same rate as pocket passers. And you had the ultimate pocket passer, the ultimate checkdown guy in Tua. Now you go to someone who's not
24:49going to throw to running backs that much. And uh I'm worried that they will be tanking. So um Miami is very live for
24:56the 101 this coming year. uh final five weeks of the season at Broncos verse the Bears at the Packers verse the Chargers
25:05and verse the Bills if Achan has a hangail over this last you know month plus he's going to get shut down like
25:13they're easily going to lose all those five and so if you have the 101 you're going to lose these games why would they
25:19like feature him why would they give him a ton of touches risk him getting injured break him down like why would
25:25they do that makes absolutely no sense for an organization do and if he has any sort of minor injury, they're just going
25:31to shut him down. And those are the most important weeks in fantasy. So, that worries me mixed with the receptions um
25:36being a little bit of a lower ceiling than I think people are expecting.
25:38That's why he's at the end of this tier.
25:40I don't really draft him this season.
25:42Tier three, Bree Hall, Jeremiah Love, Jon Williams, Kron Williams. Um really strong tier. It's just a really strong like round three. Like just get
25:51these guys in round three if you need a running back. Uh Bree Hall, awesome round three pick at the beginning at
25:57that round uh two-3 turn. Uh improved quarterback play going from Fields, Ty God, Brady Cook, like it was gross last
26:05season to Gino Smith. Um Garrett Wilson should also play more than seven games.
26:11It's the same thing as like Genty when we talk about those two. When you get that other superstar just onto the field
26:17and playing, the defense, you know, has another person to worry about, but it's sustaining drives. It's adding touchdowns to the offense. That's a
26:25positive for everyone, but especially for the running back. And it's not just getting uh Garrett Wilson back. It's adding Omar Cooper, adding Sadi, getting
26:34an off season with Adnai Mitchell. This offense is just going to be better than it was last year. Just the whole
26:39offensive environment is going to improved. And he's still a 25year-old running back has over 1350 yards three straight seasons. He's super involved in
26:48the receiving game. He has 300 touch upside. 50 plus of those could come in the receiving game. I think he's going
26:54to be league winner in round three.
26:56Jeremiah Love, uh, drafted third overall to the Cardinals, 99th percentile speed at 6'2.
27:04Uh, he's still only 21 years old, 96 percentile college dominator rating. He showed elite receiving skills in college. Like, he's just an amazing
27:12running back, but Arizona is going to stink. And, uh, Brousette, you know, isn't a a bad quarterback. and you know, McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael
27:21Wilson, that's a really strong supporting cast. Um, Arizona is just I don't know. I feel like they're going to like kind of start okay and then kind of
27:31fizzle out as the season goes along, especially if they move to Carson Beck.
27:35Um, they're going to have some good offensive weeks. It's just somewhat concerning that they have the second hardest schedule in the NFL overall. The
27:43hardest schedule by a mile through week 14. They have the lowest implied point per game total of any team. And so
27:50that's the one thing I kind of look at and I'm like, okay, people look at this offense, they're like, wait, that's not
27:56that bad. Again, I listed off their players. McBride, Marv, Michael Wilson, Brassette's not terrible. Love, you're like, that's not bad on offense, but
28:04they are projected to score the fewest points per game in the NFL this season.
28:09So, something has to give. They also gave Algier two years, $12.25 million, 8 million fully guaranteed. Remember we were talking about Bejon and we're like,
28:18you know, Alier was really a thorn in his side because he would step onto the field every time they got into the red
28:23zone. We're like, what are they doing?
28:24Like, why is Alier trotting onto the field inside the five yard line, but they would do that? I mean, that's not
28:29backup money. So, they have a clear role intended for Alier. Now, they paid him that before they knew they're going to
28:34draft Love, but also they had the number three pick, so they they should have known they were going to be drafting
28:39Jeremiah Love. I don't know. I mean, there there's some risk here. Uh he typically goes before um Bruce Hall. I still prefer Bruce Hall over him. Uh
28:49great great great talent. It's just it's a little bit concerning that they're projected for the fewest points in the NFL and they paid their backup running
28:55back a ton of money. I don't understand what this organization is doing. Like what are you doing being this terrible team live for the 101 uh and then you're
29:03paying a backup running back a ton of money. You're paying Love the most money among all running backs in the NFL
29:08taking him third overall. I don't know.
29:10I don't know what this team's doing, but uh I don't like it. Uh Javvante Williams next up coming off over 1300 yards, 13
29:17touchdowns last year. Another safe pick.
29:20The rush attempts and the touchdowns are not in danger. Nothing is going to happen with these backups to where anyone is challenging him for early down
29:27workload and touchdowns. The passing down work is more up in the air. Um and it's really just can Jaden Blue figure
29:33himself out. The team wants Blue to be a thing this year. they want him to mix in as a change of pace back uh in passing
29:41situations. Um I just still don't know if the team knows if that's really going to happen. It's really up to Jaden Blue.
29:47Can he figure himself out? Uh but yeah, Javvante is just a really safe pick. Um definitely a lower ceiling than Bree
29:54than Love just because there's really no outcome where the receptions are there.
29:58Um everything went perfect for Javant Williams last season and he was still 13th in points per game. So, the role can't really expand from what it was
30:06last year. It's probably going to be reduced, but uh still great offense. The touchdowns will be there. Early down workload will be there. So, very safe
30:12pick in round three. Kron Williams up next. Uh man, do I go back and forth on Kiran Williams a lot. 1300 plus yards,
30:2013 plus touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. Still just turning 26 in August. Rams projected to be the number one scoring team in the NFL. They might
30:30also have the best defense in the NFL.
30:32The only risk is Cororum. Um, but Cororum was there last season. He was still really good in fantasy. Um, basically the risk here is could it be
30:4250/50? People are kind of talking about it being a 50-50 split on early downs this week. And since we know the early
30:47downs have translated to red zone roles.
30:49So whatever the split is on early downs, that's been the split in the red zone.
30:53And we saw the, you know, split in the red zone decrease or I guess the split was much more in favor of Kiran last
31:01year because the early downs also tilted in that direction. And so that's the risk. If it goes to 50/50 and you have
31:07the red zone roll split and the early down roll split and it's not like they're going to throw the running backs
31:12all that much on this offense. No team is going to throw the running backs at a lower rate than the Rams. It's like,
31:18okay, well, if you're taking him in round three and it's basically a split, why aren't you just waiting like six rounds and taking Cororum much later.
31:25Um, but at the end of the day, like, if the Rams going to score 27 points per game, even if they split, he's going to
31:32score a ton of touchdowns. They really like him, so he's going to still have have probably the lead. Like, even if
31:38people think it's going be 5050, I feel like 6040 still feels like what it's going to be at worst case. Uh, and if
31:43that happens, you're getting a really strong pick in round three. So, I go back and forth. um until we actually see
31:50in camp they're like, "No, this is a split or Cororum is taking over something like that, I just feel like he's got league winning upside even if
31:57there's no injury and the contingent upside is crazy." Like he could be a top four running back if we actually saw
32:02Cororm get injured. Um lot of upside.
32:05He's a strong pick in this range. I feel like that's kind of where I've landed at. Uh tier four, Scataboo, ETN, Monty,
32:12Jacobs, Swift, Judkins, and Travon. So, starting off with Cam Scataboo, um, clearest path to featured upside in this tier. He was featured before getting
32:22injured last season. Um, he was averaging 19 and a half touches per game. He was running back seven in adjusted points per game. And the Giants
32:31were only two and four over that stretch, including games against Kansas City, the Chargers, the Eagles, the Broncos. Like, this wasn't just like bad
32:38teams, bad defenses. So, uh, he is someone that has featured upside. He's someone that can be used in the passing game and at the goal line. Um it's just
32:49really easy for someone with that profile to hit in fantasy because even if they're inefficient in different areas and if he is inefficient coming
32:56off the injury, it doesn't matter that much because when you add in all the production, who cares? If he averages 3.7 yards per carry, as long as they're
33:03giving him the carries, giving him the goal line work, giving him receptions, it really doesn't matter how efficient he is. You're getting that many touches,
33:11you're going to be good in fantasy. Uh ETN used to be higher, so he was a career clear round three pick uh before
33:18we knew about this Kamar situation, but Kamar restructuring to stay in New Orleans $6 million this year. That's going to crater ETN's value. Um they
33:27clearly love ETN uh and they want him to be the guy, but Kamara is going to be used in passing situations. He's
33:36probably going to be used in two-minute drill, four-minute drill offense as well. Um, we kind of needed that for ETN to pay off a third round ADP. The Saints
33:44do have the second easiest schedule this season. Uh, they still do play a ton of dome games. This team is going to run a
33:50lot of plays. Um, so I still think E10's a good pick. We'll just kind of have to see where does his like ADP fall because
33:58it's been falling ever since Kamar restructured that deal. Um, and the Saints honestly, they're not projected to score like that few points, right?
34:06They're 23rd in points per game, but one point per game behind the Broncos, one point per game behind the Vikings, I
34:13feel like people view those offenses as way better. The Saints have some upside this season. Um, I think more upside than people are envisioning. You know,
34:22not a guarantee that Kamar is what he used to be. So, definitely upside here.
34:28Uh, but yeah, he just can't be viewed in a tier ahead anymore. Uh, Dave Montgomery after him. Love Monty the season ultimate safe pick. So again,
34:36when you're in this range and you're like, I want to avoid all risk. David Montgomery is just clearly the pick in
34:41my eyes. Uh Texans have an amazing defense. They have a good enough offense to where they're going to want to win
34:46games with the ground game, with the defense, and just being basically efficient in the passing attack. Uh Monty's in line for a ton of carries.
34:54Woody Marks is not going to threaten his role on early downs at the goal line. Um honestly, I think even Monty is going to
35:02be out there in some passing situations.
35:03He has a career 6.6 6 yards per target.
35:05That's not bad. 36 and 24 targets over the last two years. And that's playing alongside uh Jir Gibbs. Uh you know,
35:15Woody Mars is not Jir Gibbs. Like I'm just I'm not that concerned about Woody Marks. I really think that Dave Montgomery is going to get a ton of
35:21touches. Very safe pick. Only path to failure is getting injured, but he stayed very healthy throughout his career. A if you can land him in round
35:29five, that's amazing. probably goes closer to the four five turn, but he's just such a good pick this year. Uh Jacobs after him. It's really just the
35:37suspension. Like if we knew he wasn't getting suspended, I would bump him in uh to the the tier three running backs,
35:43those round three running backs. My guess is that he's suspended for four weeks. But it's so difficult because we have absolutely no idea. So it's tough
35:50drafting him right now because you just don't don't know. Is it going to be four weeks, going be eight weeks? Like we
35:54have no clue how long he's going to be suspended or if he even is going to get suspended. Uh the efficiency did drop
36:00last season, but he's locked into so many touches um so much touchdown upside that, you know, even if he's inefficient, he hits in all three areas
36:08and so he's going to be good in fantasy.
36:10And really, he only has Marshon Lloyd behind him. Um maybe I saw Damen Martinez. Um little bit of hype there as
36:17a potential. Um I wouldn't hate Damen Martinez if like Lloyd suffers his injury again. Martinez actually was a prospect that like he went super late in
36:26the draft. um didn't obviously do anything last season. Uh couldn't even like make the team, but he was a prospect that I was like, you looked at
36:34the underlying data, you're like, wait, why do teams not like him? So there there's something there with him. Uh but again, odds are Jacobs, if he's not
36:41suspended, is going to pay off a third round ADP. Uh I just kind of have to drop him down because we don't know. He
36:47misses half the season. You can't be taking him in round three. uh DeAndre Swift after him three straight seasons of at least 250 touches, career-high
36:551386 yards, 10 touchdowns last year. And there's room for the receiving work to increase from what he saw last season.
37:02Manungai seventh round pick. I know people hate uh when I kind of bring up these seventh round picks and even with
37:07Damen Martinez, it's like I'm excited, but he's a seventh round pick and people are like, oh well round doesn't matter when you see how good they are. No, it
37:13does because if he played like that on second round draft capital, the leash is very long, the role expands like and
37:19they're just like more known with that underlying talent. Whenever we have these seventh round picks have a decent season
37:29almost always, like 99% of the time they fall off. Like it just it's unfortunate, but go look at the list of seventh round
37:36running backs having a decent season and then see what they did after that. It's terrible. like they just never do anything after it. Maybe Mungai uh kind
37:46of breaks that mold. I hope he does. I have him in Dynasty. I think he's a good player. Uh but it's unlikely he has, you
37:52know, this huge breakout from what we saw last year. More likely he actually regresses from what we saw last season.
37:58Chicago also has a brutal schedule that hurts Mungai. Helps Swift a little bit more. There's going to just be more games where it's more competitive or
38:06they're trailing when they're not expected to as often cuz we view Chicago as this great offense. But if they're always playing really good teams,
38:13they're going to fall behind more than you typically would expect from a really good offense. Also, it's the second year in this Ben Johnson system. That's a
38:20positive for everyone. Um, I just I like with Monty, whenever he falls into this range, Swift and Monty, like those are
38:29just the two guys that I'm really looking at. Uh, I don't think there's very much systemic risk here. The role is very strong. Uh, you'll have
38:36receptions, early down work, red zone role. like I just I want Swift, I want Monty in this range. Uh after Swift,
38:44it's uh Judkins, lots of systemic risk.
38:48So, if we talk about some players who it's like, oh, there's not really that much risk around them. Well, he plays on
38:51the Browns. And even though they have the fourth easiest schedule, it's the Browns. Their quarterback play is not going to be good. Uh the offensive line
38:58is going to be really bad. Um the lack of a receiving game role is going to hurt. They don't really trust them a ton
39:04of pass protection. But I'll say last season as a rookie who missed a ton of time in camp. In 14 games he had 256
39:13touches with 26 of those being receptions. So if he plays a fully healthy season, he's got a very clear path to 300 touches, 35 receptions, like
39:22and if that happens, you know, I think people when they say the receiving upside isn't there, he's not a good pass
39:27catcher, they're viewing him and saying, "Oh, his upside is like 17 to 20 receptions." No, he could have 35 receptions. It's just that, you know, if
39:35he was prolific in the receiving game, he'd be a second round pick. So, you're getting that discount. Um, it's just that, you know, if the receptions don't
39:43improve and if this offense is as terrible as it's probably going to be, uh, there's just probably going to be a
39:48lot of games where it's more of a like Dylan Samson game. And you never really want that in this range, right? There's
39:54not going to be a ton of games where like Monty and Swift are like game scripted out of it, but Judkins can be
40:00game scripted out of it. So, that kind of hurts. Uh, the one thing I keep clean to is the coaching change. Um, talked
40:06about this in a different video, but no coach has created explosive runs at a higher rate than Todd Monkin over the
40:11last 25 years. Judkins 91st percentile speed um, and 94th percentile burst turns 23 in October. Um, like he's a
40:23highly explosive player playing for a coach that creates explosive runs.
40:26That's basically the upside here. But if the line is bad and the team is bad and the quarterback's play is bad, if
40:31everything around him is bad, it is tougher for him to hit uh his his ceiling and lowest implied team total of
40:37any team in the fantasy playoffs. Third lowest overall. Again, the environment is really tough there. Uh Henderson, well, does he improve? Like that's
40:48basically what we're talking about with Trayvon is Raandre is the lead guy. Like until we see something different happen, Ramandre Stevenson's the lead running
40:55back on this team. Um I basically when you're drafting him this high, which I don't typically do, um you're assuming that he takes that
41:05step forward in the really the receiving game, but also like the blocking game as well. Like they didn't bench him because
41:10he's a bad pass catcher. They benched him last season because he was missing blocks. Like blitzes were coming in, he just wasn't picking them up. And you
41:18can't do that, especially with a bad offensive line because team's going to blitz a lot. They're going to gain pressure at a higher rate than normal
41:22even when they're not blitzing. You need your running back to be able to pick up the blitz. Now, the offensive line
41:26improved. Um, the pass catchers improved. Like, this offense is going to be very good. So, that's going to make up for the fact that they had a very
41:32easy schedule last season. So, they're going to win a decent amount of games, going to score a lot of points. And it
41:37was a disaster last year for Trayvon.
41:39But, he also had,00 yards and 10 touchdowns and 35 receptions, and he was 25th in adjusted points per game. So, having him 23rd here isn't exactly
41:47crazy. You don't need him to be that much better than he was last year. And I do think the odds are he's going to
41:52improve from what we saw last season. uh the team is just going to be better. I know they made it to the Super Bowl last
41:58season, but you know, that was more of the the scheduling. Um offense is going to be improved this year if he can get
42:04out there. Like they want him to be on the field because that's the thing, like they love his speed because he can
42:10stretch defenses and they love that, you know, even from lining up in the back field, he could threaten a safety deep
42:15downfield. That just creates things on offense. So, they want him to be a thing. It's can he be can he earn that
42:21role in camp tier five Tutin Bucky Irving Tony Pard Stevenson and Jenarian Price uh Bashaw Tuton leading this off.
42:29Um I can see an argument for putting him at the end of tier four. Um I might move him up but it's going to depend on camp
42:36reports. I need to see those clear camp reports that he's the guy. He's got featured potential this season. Um remember this video is static. You could
42:45look in a week on the website and he has moved up because if we get those reports from camp I am going to change things.
42:51Um that's basically the one we're looking at is does uh Crod have any early down role? Does Laquent Allen come in on passing situations? Is this like
43:00some sort of three running back committee in Jacksonville? If not, I think Tutin is awesome. Don't let the yards per carry fool you from last
43:08season. He was used a lot in short yardage situations in year one because he's really good in those situations.
43:14But um that's going to tank your yards per carry. It's going to tank your uh missed tackles forced per attempt. Even
43:19if you're a good running back if you're in short yardage. You're not making people miss that much. You're just trying to get that first down and your
43:24yards per carry going to be capped. He's a better running back than you think. Uh this offense is really good. Clearly
43:29winning upside if he can get that roll.
43:32Tony Pard after him. Another running back I drafted a ton in this range.
43:35Running back 28 in points per game last season. Almost impossible for the offense to be worse than it was last year. Uh, Titans are actually projected
43:44for 20.7 points per game, which is tied with the Panthers. It's only half a point per game behind the um the Falcons
43:50this season. I feel like that's a lot higher than a lot of people are expecting. Uh Nick Singleton, Nick Singleton is not a threat to Pard's
43:58workload. He's really not even a threat to Spears' workload. Um, I think there's a decent chance that Brian Dball, who historically has been someone who when
44:06he likes his guy, and when he sees his best player, features them, just gives a lot of production to him. There's a
44:11chance that he just decides that Tony Pard is the best running back on this team, he decides to feature him like he
44:16did Cam Scataboo last season. And even if he doesn't, Pard's going to be the lead back. He's going to get a ton of
44:21touches. He really is a good pick. Even if the Titans don't take that next step, he's still a great pick this season. Uh
44:27Roandre Stevenson. Uh as far as things stand right now, like I said, he is still the lead running back in New
44:33England. Um when all the chips were down on the table last season in the playoffs, uh he played at least 61% of
44:39the snaps in all four playoff games. He had touchs 13, 20, 25, and 12. So all the chips are down. Not that many months
44:47ago. He's the guy. Unless Trayvon Henderson steps it up in camp, it's probably going to be a repeat of last season. Uh New England improved their
44:56offensive line. They improved their wide receiver room. Like he's a really good discount. Uh but I will concede that like, you know, the team wants Tayvon to
45:06be the guy. Like they want that to happen. That's not ideal for your running back. They want the other guy to
45:11be the lead. Uh but also high contingent upside. You see an injury either one of these two, the other one's going to
45:16skyrocket in value. Uh and then finally, Jiren Price. Um I just really worry about the passing game role. I think Zachary had a really really good stat
45:24where he highlighted the concern.
45:27Everyone likes to say, well, he's playing behind Jeremiah Love. Of course, he didn't. Okay, but that has been the case for other running backs. We have
45:33used that excuse before for other running backs. Jarian Price's best season college reception share was 2.8%.
45:42That is super low. In Zachar's database since 2011, 48 running backs have had 5% or lower. How many of them do you think
45:52hit 10 points per game? 10 full PPR points per game in any of their first three seasons. That is not a high bar.
45:59That is like a mid-range running back three. So among 48 running backs with below a 5% best season college reception chair.
46:09One only one of them hit 10 full PPR points per game over the first three years of their career in just one of
46:16those years. And it was Derrick Henry.
46:18So unless we think Jarian Price is Derk Henry, it's not looking good. Again, we have used that excuse before. He's not a
46:27good pass catcher. It's unlikely he's used in the receiving game. Odds are it's going to be a committee and then odds are it's a committee. Then they add
46:34in Charbanet once he's healthy enough to play and Charban is the leadback. I almost never draft Price. I just don't see it this season. Tier six, Warren,
46:44Chuba, Harvey, Manungai, and Rico Dael.
46:47Uh, we're starting to get into a lot more concerns, but I will say I think I'm moving Jaylen Warren up because I
46:51was prepping for this video and I'm like, man, I like Warren. Like, I feel like he's just a really good pick this
46:56season. I prefer Warren over Rico just because the receiving role. Um, I don't know who's going to win early downs. I
47:01do think Rico is probably set up better uh because also, you know, they bring him in free agency. They clearly saw
47:06something they like. And the easiest way to use him is to have him be the lead running back on um early downs to say,
47:13"Okay, you know, Warren, you're going to be in this role we keep having you in of you're a change of pace back. You mix in
47:19uh for carries, but then you're using the red zone, you're used for receptions." Even if that's the case, uh look at all of the receptions he had.
47:26Like he was backing up Naji Harris for the first three years, still racks up 127 receptions through his first three seasons. Then Gainwell breaks out last
47:34year, but Warren still caught 40 balls on 45 targets. Um, we look at who the quarterback is, who the offensive system
47:42is centered around. Well, it's someone who's going to check down a ton, right?
47:46Pittsburgh dumped to running backs 132 times last season. San Francisco was the only team last season, not only in terms of like per play target shared
47:57running backs, uh, but total targets to the running back position, only team to surpass Pittsburgh. So, ton of dump offs available here. Warren has legitimate
48:06like 70 75 reception upside. It's not going to matter all that much how he projects on early downs at that point.
48:14And that's assuming Rico does lock up lock up that top job. What if we see uh Warren win that job or be in like a
48:21split in early downs and have 75 receptions? Lot of upside going this late. Uh people going to look at Eli Heiden Reich, but I mean I highly doubt
48:30he's going to have a role. It's Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers wants someone out there he trusts, has a long history of
48:35success. It's not going to be Eli out there. Um, Chuba Hubard after this, I don't draft Chuba that much. Um, if
48:40Brooks gets hurt again, then Chuba's probably going to pay off his ADP by a decent margin. Um, but, uh, if Brooks
48:47stays healthy, then Chuba is going to be unusable at times. And so, risk there.
48:52Uh, but you basically need Chuba to be featured because he's just not an efficient runner and the offense isn't that great. Um, he's not a player I
48:59draft that much. Personally, um I think the team wants Brooks to be that lead back and so I think they slowly ramp him
49:06up as the season goes on. That's not ideal for Trouer to be losing value over time because you're not starting him in
49:12week one. You don't draft him to be a starter. And so if he's going to lose value as the season goes on, that's not
49:16great. But we've said that before and then Brooks has torn his ACL. So if he tears his ACL a third time, uh then of
49:22course Trouba is going to be a decent pick. Uh but also Carolina has the hardest strength of schedule of any team
49:26this season. That's brutal for running backs unless you're prolific in the receiving game and Chuba is not. He's a career 5.1 yards per target. That is
49:34terrible. RJ Harvey after him. Dobbins is going to remain the lead back on early downs. Um, also just concerns me a
49:42little bit that the team viewed Harvey as the featured back last season, right?
49:46They watched it happen like the viewed as in like saw with their eyes. Um, because Dobbins goes down. And so we get
49:53all these games where Harvey's the guy.
49:55Uh, and then what do they do in the offseason? They're like, "Okay, uh, we need Dobbins back. Uh, and we need to
50:00draft Jonah Coleman round four." If they were watching Harvey in that role and were like, like what we saw, would they
50:06have done that? I don't know. And Jonah Coleman, 5'8", 220 pounds, good in the receiving game. I mean, he could be used
50:12in the red zone, he could be used as a pass catcher. All of a sudden, you're like, wait, where are the roles here?
50:16Dobbins is definitely the early down guy. We think Dobbins is passing downs.
50:21who think he's like, you know, red zone, but Coleman's good enough to do that as well. So, a little bit concerning. I
50:27think this is a huge one where we got to just know in camp. Um, but yeah, I I just don't trust it. They spread the
50:34ball around a lot as well. Shawn Payeyton's totally fine having multiple running backs. Um, I don't know. There's a lot of risk here. Um, his ADP is
50:42cratering, but it probably needs to fall a little bit more for me to get him. uh Kungai after I mentioned before uh
50:49there's risk here being a seventh round running back the unfortunate reality is the track record of successful seventh round running backs in the rookie season
50:59is really really bad beyond that uh maybe Mongai breaks the mold uh but you're kind of betting on it in these
51:06single-digit rounds like we're still in the single-digit rounds right now uh for reddraft leagues um I hope he hits uh but it's just every time a seventh round
51:15rookie running back has done something, they've fallen off after that. I do genuinely think he's good. Um I think the contingent upside is also awesome.
51:22We saw him go off when Swift was out uh for week last season. Um I still draft him sometimes in this range when I need
51:28a running back because the consent upside is so significant. Um but I I hate the fact that it was a seventh
51:35round pick. Uh the fact that the schedule is just so brutal. I mean that hurts him more than it hurts DeAndre
51:41Swift as I said before. Um, and just like while Swift is healthy, how much are you really going to play him? Like
51:47even if you were looking at him as like a by-week fill in, I mean, the odds are he's not getting that many touches. He's
51:52not going to go out there and have like five and a half yards per carry. There's plenty of other guys that can score
51:56touchdowns. So, the upside is Swift getting hurt and he does get drafted a little bit earlier than handcuffs. Uh, then finally this year, Rico Dowel. Um,
52:05I like Warren a lot more than Rico just because of those receptions. Uh to be fair to Rico though, over 1300 yards in
52:11back-to-back seasons on different teams.
52:13That's very difficult. Changing teams again though, so it's going to keep being difficult for Rico. Um he did straight up outplay Trouba Hubard last
52:20season and replaced him. Uh this will be a big battle to watch. If Rico goes out there and looks awesome in camp, I will
52:26move him up the rankings, but that will need to happen. Uh then finally, tier seven, Brooks, Gainwell, Dobbins, Cororm, White, Mason, and Katon
52:35Mitchell. Uh, for Jonathan Brooks, super boom bust, right? He legit has 12 touches in his career coming off back-to-back torn ACLs. The team seems
52:43confident, right? They let Rico walk.
52:45They didn't sign or draft anyone. He turns 23 the day I'm recording this. So, happy birthday, Jonathan Brooks. Um, as I said before, I think the team wants
52:53him to be the lead back. He's more explosive. He's better in the receiving game. Like, Chuba is not good. 49 running backs last season had at least
53:00100 rush attempts. Trier ranked last in explosive run rate, last in missed tackles forced per attempt, second to last in touchdown rate, third to last in
53:07yards after contact per attempt. His longest run was 14 yards on 134 carries.
53:12Like he's not that good. They want Brooks to be the guy. Can he stay healthy? No clue. Uh Kenny Gainwell after that racked up over a thousand
53:19yards, eight touchdowns last year, including 73 receptions. Of course, that was what we talked about. Pittsburgh threw running backs a ton. Not going to
53:27happen as high a rate in Tampa Bay. Um, I also just think it's it's a committee.
53:31Like truly, Buckyy's a good running back. Sean Tucker's probably the best third running back in the NFL, uh, it's just going to be a huge committee, but
53:37everyone has contingent upside. So, if you saw Bucky get injured again, well, now Gainwell is awesome. You saw Gainwell get injured, now Bucky is
53:45awesome. If you see Shan Tucker get injured, well, now both of these two are a little bit more viable as a fill in.
53:50Like, it's just when no one's injured, I don't know how much we're going to trust these guys. Uh, but Gainwell proved to
53:56be a really good running back last season. I like drafting him in this general range for that upside. Better than full PPR though. These rankings for
54:02the half PPR. Uh JK Dobbins after this.
54:05Uh more of a floor pick. So better in baseball. Uh as a guy where it's like you just need that baseline production.
54:12Maybe you um skip the position for a while. You just need that floor. And it's that floor from a seasonl long
54:18perspective. I know what's going to happen for Dobbitz. He's going to win the early down job and get some touchdowns, but not of receptions.
54:24There's no risk in that. We know that's going to happen. uh but he doesn't have the ceiling. So in a reddraft league,
54:30there's really no world where Dobbins has receptions, is someone that you're trusting every week as a locked in, loving it, running back, too. Um his
54:39floor is going to be annoyingly low. So we get into a reddraft league, it's not as good. Um you would need probably both
54:44Harvey and Jonah Coleman to get injured for him to rack up receptions, but it's nice that the team loves him, the
54:50coaches love him. Uh he's many of the coaches like favorite player, so he's getting the ball. It's just, you know, more of like a standard lead pick,
54:56honestly. Uh Blake Cororm, what I talked about with Kyrie, basically repeat that here. If they're headed for a 50-50 split, and even if Kairen barely remains
55:06the lead in passing situations, if the Rams are projected for the most points in the NFL and they have a great
55:11defense, the contingent upside is also crazy high. He's probably a running back one if Kyron gets injured, he's a pretty good pick going this late. Uh the
55:19problem is if there's not that injury, Cormma has 15 receptions in 34 career games and they're inefficient. So when you look at someone, I'm not going to
55:27compare him to Derrick Henry here, but someone like Derrick Henry who doesn't have receptions. Derrick Henry is also super efficient on his receptions.
55:34Somehow uh Blake Cororm is hyperly inefficient on the very limited receptions. He does get 4.3 yards per target, absurdly low. He needs that 5050
55:45split. He needs a lot more touches to be actually someone you're trusting in fantasy. Uh but again, great offense and contingent upside is awesome. Rashad
55:52White up next. Obvious passing down running back for the Commanders.
55:56Unfortunately, you don't want the passing down running back for the Commanders. No team threw to running backs at a lower rate than the Rams, but
56:02no team through to running backs fewer times in total than the Commanders. 56 running back targets last year for the Commanders. Uh they're bottom seven in
56:112024 as well. Um, don't really know what to make of this backfield too. Is JCM gonna be a thing? Is Kron Allen going to
56:18be a thing? Mostly in a void. Probably a three running back committee with very limited targets going to the running back position. Uh, Jordan Mason up next.
56:26Reports are he'll be the clear lead running back, but we kind of need to confirm that in training camp. Kevin Oonnell is being underrated this season
56:33after McCarthy tanked the offense last year. What if the Vikings offense is actually good under Kyler Murray? They still have a great defense. They play in
56:41a dome. Jordan Mason has a career 5.1 yards per carry. There was truly nothing he could do at times last season. He was
56:47being efficient. He was doing great as a running back, but when the offense falls apart around you, I don't know. I think
56:53people are just kind of overlooking the team in general. Like all of their players, Jefferson's a great pick.
56:58Addison, Kyler, Mason, they're all really good picks this season because Kevin Oonnell is a really good coordinator, head coach, but obviously
57:07he's doing the play calling and all those things, designing the plays. This offense has a ton of upside on average.
57:13Maybe some of these guys fail, but the ceiling case here is exceptional, especially when you add in the defense for Mason. Um, not going to have many
57:21receptions. Aaron Jones is still there, but they plan on limiting Jones somewhat this season to keep him fresher and healthier. He was like career lows last
57:29season in efficiency. I think that, you know, his touches go down. Uh, Deont Clayborn's not going to be a thing. I
57:36really think a ton of touches are coming for Jordan Mason. If this offense improves, there's a lot of upside here.
57:42Then finally, Katon Mitchell. Um, I'm all in on the Chargers this season. As I said before, uh, Mike McDaniel, when you
57:48when your, uh, offensive coordinator is printing off wanted posters for you, maybe draft that player in fantasy when they're going as like your last running
57:57back pick. Um, lot of similarities between him and Devon Chan in terms of the explosiveness, the speed, the body build, uh, the, um, touches in college.
58:07Like, a lot of that stuff is the same.
58:09We just haven't seen it yet for um Katon staying healthy in the NFL. But look at the GPS tracking. I mean, if you guys
58:14want to really know how fast this kid is, he hit 20 plus miles per hour seven times last year. That was the most of
58:20any player in the NFL. And it was on 59 carries. Think about that for a seven.
58:2559 touches. 59 touches for Katon Mitchell. Seven times he hit 20 plus miles per hour, the most of any player in the league. That's crazy. He had 196
58:36touches in college. He had 228 touches.
58:38is another year in college. Like he has stayed healthy in the past. He has gotten touches in the past and he
58:42doesn't need 300 touches, right? He's like your last running back pick. Highly explosive player, great offense. He's potentially going to be in this Devon
58:50Han role. I pick him every single time in this range. So, if you want to see my exact ranking on every player as it also
58:59changes because this is the last running back rankings video this season as it changes throughout the summer. I update it every single day to keep up to date
59:05with the latest news. See that my website the fantasyfootadvice.com.
59:10Thank you all for watching. Please leave a like if you are still here. Please subscribe to the channel on YouTube and
59:15Spotify if you are new. But I'll catch you all on the next one.

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