0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here.
0:01Back with another video. You guys seem to like the structure of last week's video, so going to stick with that again
0:06this week. I'll go over some underperforming players and talk about whether I'd rather be a buyer or a seller given their general market cost.
0:13First up, I want to talk about Eagles players. The market has Devonta as a low-end wide receiver two, Saquon as more of a mid-range running back two,
0:21and then Dallas Goedert as the tight end 12 with like the, you know, low-end one to high-end tight end two. Honestly, I
0:28would say I'm more on the hold to buy side of all three of them. I don't think anyone is like going out of their way to
0:36buy high on these three.
0:38The end of the day, uh Jalen Hurts had 186 passing yards per game. So, basically, if you look at the market
0:47right now, they're like, "Well, this is bad. They just lost their starting quarterback. The team is tanking. It just like seems like everything is down
0:54in that situation." So, nobody is pumped to go after Dallas Goedert, pumped to go after uh Saquon Barkley. Like, no one
1:02really, really wants to do that. But in reality, again, 186 passing yards a game for Jalen Hurts, like, yeah, it's Tanner
1:10McKee is obviously a worse quarterback, but they are going to throw the ball a lot more. Jalen Hurts has played in 108
1:17games in his career. He's exceeded 45 pass attempts one time in those 108 games. Tanner McKee just threw the ball 45 times in his third career start. His
1:26other two starts, 40 and 41 pass attempts. So, they let him drop back at a super high rate. He doesn't scramble.
1:33He doesn't steal like rushing touchdowns at the goal line. The Eagles might throw the ball 10 more times per game moving
1:40forward, and that is a benefit for everyone, uh even if the efficiency does drop off a little bit. Um and at these prices, I just don't really
1:49feel like you're going to be all that disappointed. Like, what are the odds that, you know, with Saquon specifically, right?
1:56If you're super generous right now, there are like 30 running backs you trust even a little bit this season.
2:01Realistically, that number's probably like 25 that you actually would start each week and be like, "Okay, this isn't great, but at least I'm going to get
2:08something out there." Right? It's probably like 25 running backs. And so, as the running back 18, how much more can he really disappoint from that point
2:18when we also know a huge issue with Saquon has been the goal line touchdowns. Every time they get inside the 5-yard line, they're just going to
2:26touch push Jalen Hurts, and he's going to take the touchdown from Saquon. Well, that's not going to happen anymore. Now, it's probably more likely they'll even
2:32run heavy near the goal line, so he's not going to be vulture. He's actually going to have some touchdowns. And again, the passing volume was so
2:40incredibly low before, maybe he actually does catch a couple dump offs that would have been scrambles before. So, I don't think any of these three are like
2:48massive targets for me, right? I'm not signing up for for Saquon on every single team. I'm not paying, you know, high-end running back two price tag for
2:56Saquon. But if the market is scared for these three, if someone, you know, that has them is like actively seeking out a
3:02trade because they just don't want them on their team, I do think it's an okay time to buy. I'd be more on the buy
3:08side.
3:09Cam Akers got a boo up next. Uh got benched last week because of the fumbles. Although, it's quote unquote bench, right? They said he wasn't, but
3:15he had zero rush attempts. So, let's be honest. Um had a key fumble lost in week five that basically cost them the game.
3:22Um and then even though that was only his first lost fumble in the season, in weeks one, two, and three, he fumbled
3:29the ball in all three of those games. He just got lucky that they did recover them. But at the end of the day, he's
3:34like fumbled the ball four times now in five games, and then didn't get a touch in the sixth game. So, market now has
3:41him down as the running back 27. We just said being generous, there's like 30 running backs we feel even okay about. I
3:48would again be a little bit more on the buy side, but I would say like a hesitant buy and more so like if you're
3:54looking for I don't say home run cuz Cam can't really turn into a home run at this point, but if you're looking for
4:00that gamble where it's like, you know what?
4:03I can't afford someone who's clearly, you know, a reliable running back two.
4:07Maybe you just don't have the personnel on your team to do a trade for that.
4:11Like, Cam could still turn into a top 15 running back rest of season. That's like in his range of outcomes and he's not
4:17going to cost you even nearly close to that. So, if you're looking for something like that where it's like, I'm willing to make that bet with the
4:25downside that like he straight up is a backup running back at this point. If that's kind of what you're looking for,
4:30I think Cam is perfect for that. Um it's basically all backup running backs that are currently ranked behind Cam Akers rest of season. Rest of
4:38season. So, the market itself does not clearly view him as a starter right now.
4:42So, when asked this week basically about benching Cam, Harbaugh did lie and he said that he wasn't benched. Uh he basically was like, you know what? We
4:49wanted to rotate the running backs to start. Um we wanted to see if anyone could get hot and in the second half, um
4:55you know, they fell behind by so much they needed to use the third down running back more. It's like, you can
5:00half buy that because of the quotes he said later like, which we'll get into, uh basically being like he wants to figure out if one of these
5:07running backs can take over. But he didn't rotate backs to start the game.
5:10Cam Akers was not in the rotation, right? So, it's like he was benched. You you don't have a running back that's
5:15averaging like, I don't know what he's averaging, but in that 17 to 20 touch range every single week and then gets
5:20zero. He was benched, okay? So, like they weren't giving him touches because of the fumble, but I do think the other
5:25quotes are just a little bit more telling or like useful to us moving forward. It's not that um Harbaugh is like
5:33against using one running back, right?
5:35It's not like he feels like he needs to use a running back by committee. He's basically just like, "Listen, like none
5:40of these dudes are stepping up. Like if someone steps up and earns that, you know, featured role or like semi-featured role, then they will give
5:48it to them. They're not against doing that. The problem is no one is stepping up. They also did cut Najee Harris, so
5:54it is down to Singletary, Tyron Tracy Jr., and Cam Akers. I genuinely do believe it's going to be like a wide-open competition moving forward,
6:03and that just opens up a huge range of outcomes. It is possible that one of these three running backs wins the job,
6:09is consistently viable as a running back two week over week, but it's also possible that someone does that game, but then starts off slow the next game
6:18and someone else takes over, and that would make none of them a consistent running back two moving forward. So, again, it's a gamble, right? If you
6:25think that Akers is clearly the best running back on this team, then he is a pretty good trade target right now because the sentiment is way
6:32down. He had zero touches last week. If you think he's the best running back and that they're willing to give the best
6:37running back a lot of touches cuz there's a lot of touches available on this team, then he'd be a weekly running back two. But,
6:44I also think that like, you know what?
6:45If if Tracy Jr., if Singletary are out there on free agency, they're not bad options to roster on your bench because
6:52they also are going to be given an opportunity, and if one of them takes advantage of that, they will lean with
6:58that running back over Akers. So, it's a gamble, but on teams that are struggling, on teams that just need to figure something out running back two,
7:05but don't have an ability to spend high at it, Akers is not a bad option. So, it really just comes down to your
7:10situation, how you view Akers. Again, if I had to pick one for some reason, I guess I would lean more towards buy
7:19because I don't know how much he can really underperform as a running back 27 by the market. Worst case, he's probably
7:26in like the mid-30s, and you'll lose the trade, but you were probably not giving up that much to get him. But, yeah,
7:32obviously, it's a gamble. Garrett Wilson after him. I would be more on the sell side for Garrett Wilson. My worry is the
7:39target ceiling. So, in his entire career, we talk about this every single season, right? Ton of targets. I mean, he's literally like always like top five
7:46in targets, but doesn't produce that amazing in fantasy, so he needs the heavy volume. Better this season, I think the efficiency is just looking a
7:54little bit better. Um Gino's a competent quarterback. We know at times uh Garrett Wilson's played with absolute trash at quarterback. My worry is that like he's
8:03had some of this production when we've had injuries, right? Cedrick has missed time. Mason Taylor has missed time.
8:09Elijah Mitchell has missed a huge chunk of the season. Omar Cooper's been out for a while. And slowly those guys are
8:14all getting healthy. Uh Breece Hall has missed a chunk of the season. He's a better passing back passing down back than uh Bralon Allen.
8:21But like Breece is returning soon. And Elijah is returning soon. And both tight ends are now healthy. And Omar is back.
8:28And it's like I just feel like as the team gets healthier and healthier, it's less and less and less likely that we
8:33see these like 10 to 12 target games from Garrett Wilson. And again, he just he needs that. Even if he's going to be
8:39a little bit more efficient this season, he does need that heavy volume to hit in fantasy. And so, I'm just worried that
8:47as they get healthier, as Omar honestly breaks out, like I feel like he's just better than I thought he was. It's a
8:53small sample size, but on the small sample size we have, he's a pretty darn good wide receiver that deserves to get
8:59a decent amount of targets.
9:01But it's like you can say the same thing about like a lot of these players.
9:04Breece Hall deserves a lot of touches in this offense, but Bralon Allen is also having a great season, honestly. So, running backs are going to still get
9:11usage. These tight ends are athletic and decent pass catchers. They'll get usage.
9:15Elijah was having a great camp great start to the season. It's like he used to be surrounded by garbage, Garrett Wilson. And now he's not. And he still
9:23does have Gino at quarterback who is like competent, but he's not, you know, Patrick Mahomes out there, right? So, I'm worried a little bit. I don't think
9:30he's going to be bad, but the market has him as the wide receiver 16 right now.
9:34That's like a mid to the end wide receiver two. I think it's relatively unlikely that he like really outperforms that, finishes as a top 10 wide
9:41receiver. And so, I would rather just sell, convert it into something else, maybe a running back if you need that.
9:48Um Maybe target a team that like is kind of thin at wide receiver cuz I think the market like still likes Garrett Wilson,
9:54still thinks he's going to be solid. Uh maybe a two-for-one trade for an upgrade, something like that uh to where I don't know. I I think it's much more
10:00likely he underperforms wide receiver 18 on the season than over performs it. Uh Someone in the same general range that I
10:06think is a buy, so you could flip, you know, Garrett Wilson for A.J. Brown that we'll talk about here. Personally, I
10:14hate those trades. So, I just want to have a little take here on that one. I don't like the flip trade. So, like if
10:19you're like, "Oh, I think Garrett Wilson is the wide receiver 18 rest of season and A.J. Brown's wide receiver 16.
10:24Should I trade, you know, uh Garrett Wilson for A.J. Brown?"
10:28I mean, I guess, but that also feels like like gambling basically. Like it it's not a gamble when you say, "I need
10:35running back. You need receiver. Let's flip. Let's make a deal where it benefits both of us." That that right there is like a good thing to do because
10:42even if you look back and you're like, "Oh, that player kind of did better."
10:46Well, you had a need in another position, so it still helped you out long term. It's just so much easier to
10:51win those trades long term. If you're flipping players that are really really close, you're basically just making like a 53-47 bet and you're going to be wrong about
11:02half the time on those. Also, you're just opening up to like if one of these guys just twists their ankle, which we
11:07can't even possibly know, being like, "Oh, wow, I just kind of converted." And I don't know, it's just the value is
11:12similar. I just I just don't like doing it. I don't like doing one-for-one trades for like two receivers or two running backs unless you're very very
11:19confident in the flip, I wouldn't do it.
11:20But, uh someone that I view in the same general range as more of a buy than a sell is A.J. Brown. Uh market does have
11:27him as the wide receiver 18. I think it's far more likely that he over performs that than under-performs it. In week one, he had uh three receptions, 26
11:36yards on four targets, then gets hurt just after halftime, um misses weeks two through five, returns last week in week six, commands 10 targets. That was a 33%
11:47target share. That was the highest target share of any player on the Patriots this season. Um he ran a route on 91% of dropbacks. He had 18 expected
11:56fantasy points. That's awesome, right?
11:57In his return. But he was very inefficient, only caught three of the 10 targets, 30 uh for uh 27 yards. No
12:04touchdown. Has the I don't want to say easy touchdown he should have converted, but like for AJ Brown, he should have
12:09caught that touchdown pass. So, um I think he was just a little bit rusty. He had a lot of time off. This is only his
12:15second game. He's played like one and a half games with Drake May. That connection will continue to grow. He's going to have much better games. He's
12:22going to be used a lot in the red zone.
12:24Again, I'd be surprised if rest of season from like week seven on, he finished below the running back 18. And if he does, it's barely going to be
12:31below. So, I just feel like at that market cost, you're kind of buying at not a floor. Anyone could get hurt. He
12:37could still under-perform. But assuming health, assuming an average outcome here, that's pretty close to what his floor should be. I think it's
12:44more likely he finishes in that like wide receiver nine to 13 sort of range.
12:49So, I definitely would look to buy low on AJ Brown this week.
12:53Jacobs up next. Uh market has him as the running back 20 rest of season. I would be more of a seller at that cost. I
13:00don't think you need to do it this week, which is what we get to. Uh but I'd be more of a seller. Um
13:06it's just risky, right? I mean, like he could be suspended at any moment. Like at any moment in time, you could look at
13:12your phone after it buzzes and be like, "Oh, well, Jacobs is done for the season, right?" Cuz the tape came out.
13:16So, it's just like the the fact that that's always looming is just a little bit of a concern. But you also have a
13:21concern with the situation. That offensive line is horrendous, right? It is so bad. Jacobs has never been like a highly efficient running back. Uh he's
13:30never going to go out there and average like 5 yd per carry, especially at this point of his career. I would say on
13:35average under like an average offensive line, he's probably like 4 yd per carry.
13:39That's like what he is at this point.
13:40Behind this offensive line, that might be 3 and 1/2, 3.6 yd per carry. And that's going to open up some pretty
13:46disgusting weeks if he has like even like 17 rush attempts and he's got like 40 total yd on that. It's just like this
13:53ground game probably just not going to produce anything this season. They can't block and it's just not like Jacobs is going to burst through the hole and rip
14:02off a ton of long games. So, I think there's going to be a lot of games where they just cannot get going. He's going
14:07to have to do most of his production through touchdowns and the receiving game. And he can do that, but I don't
14:12know. I just feel like the hope is basically over these next 2 weeks. Hope that he can do something pretty decent
14:20and you can flip him for like mid to high-end running back two value. Cuz at at low-end running back two, running
14:24back two in our season, I feel like that's probably in general correct. He's probably just going to get enough touches where that's where he should be
14:30ranked. The hope is someone views him higher than that. Uh next 2 weeks they face the Lions and the Panthers. Those
14:37are two good match-ups. He's got a good chance of scoring a touchdown, a good chance of having like 70 or 80 total yd.
14:43And if he can do that like back-to-back weeks of like, you know, 70, 80 yd, maybe one touchdown total, maybe two
14:48touchdowns, a touchdown each game. If that happens, I think it's absolutely then you sell cuz after that it's Patriots, Vikings, bye, Rams. I don't
14:58believe he's going to do anything in like those 3 weeks and then the bye. And that's going to be a huge chunk of the
15:03season that's like super important in fantasy. Like you're going to have uh you know, tons of teams on bye, injuries are still piling up. You're just going
15:11to need your guys to produce and that's the heart of the season where he's probably not going to do that much. So,
15:17uh two takes here basically is that number one, I'd start looking to sell now cuz if you find someone who values him as a
15:23mid to high end running back two, I'd take it. Uh but start that process now so people kind of know he's for sale. Uh
15:30and then if he has those two good performances or at least like one good performance this week, something like that, maybe it'll be easier to get a
15:36deal done. But the second take is that like if he doesn't look good over these next two weeks, which is possible
15:43because he's had so much time off, uh very concerned because of the upcoming schedule after that. So if he goes out
15:50there this week and does nothing, he goes out there next week and does nothing. And then he's got Patriots, Vikings, bye, Rams on deck, the cost is
15:58going to be, you know, lower. Like he's going to have less value than he has right now. So, um tough to know kind of what to do, but I
16:05would be on the side of see what you can get done this week. Uh see if you can get mid to high end running back two
16:10value. If not, it's okay. Maybe he performs well, can sell for higher next week or the week after.
16:16Chig. Final player we'll talk about. And Chig is not, um he doesn't really fit this video as much cuz he's not someone
16:22that like, you know, is is underperforming. He's doing fine. But I wanted to talk about him because we don't talk about tight
16:27ends all that much. We especially don't talk about the low range of tight end.
16:32If you are struggling at tight end still, but you look on free agency and there's nothing and you look at the
16:37trade market and you're like, is there any sort of buy low opportunity at all for someone who could do something? I
16:42think the answer is Chig Okonkwo. Like no one's going to be selling Chig Okonkwo for a lot. He's probably a backup tight end to a lot of people. But
16:49Terry McLaurin's done for the season.
16:51Could Chig be their number two pass catcher rest of season? Maybe. I mean, he got hurt early in the season, but 70
16:57plus percent of snaps in back-to-back weeks now. He had four for 60 and then seven for 69 last week. So, two pretty
17:05solid uh weeks in a row for tight end.
17:07Didn't score, but like he's being involved in this offense. It's really tough to trade for a tight end, but again, if you're struggling and you want
17:15someone who's probably valued, I would say is like a mid to low end tight end two that could be a high end tight end
17:21two could be a low end tight end one rest of season. You know, it's not a lock that he goes off but they kind of
17:25need someone to step up, right? I mean when you have McLaurin done for the season, you've got Diggs who I mean I
17:31like Diggs but like pretty old not someone who's going to command you know 15 targets like there's a lot of targets available now that
17:38Terry McLaurin is gone. They need a reliable pass catcher.
17:42Diggs also doesn't really operate down field so it's like yeah, sure we've got Diggs for the shallow area of the field
17:47but what do we got down field? You know, it's Traylin Burks. He's been a bust in the NFL thus far. It's Antonio Williams
17:54like I like the potential of these two.
17:56I think they should be rostered but there's no guarantee that these guys step up and command eight or nine targets every week. If Chig can be in
18:02that like six to eight target range, get some schemed looks, there's an opportunity here for him to be a low end
18:08tight end one rest of season and they did pay him a lot this off season $17 million guaranteed so I don't know. There's
18:15opportunity there. I don't think it's going to cost you that much so I'd take a shot on him. See if you can buy low at
18:20all. So that's my take on kind of the trade market this week. Let me know your thoughts on the video in the comment
18:26section down below. If you're still here, please leave a like and if you're new, please subscribe to the channel.
18:31I've got the big rankings video tomorrow. Highly recommend being subscribed so you don't miss out on that one but that's it for this one and thank
18:37you all for watching.