PPR Mock Draft - When Are We Taking QB This Year?

Alec Pierce's health status is uncertain heading into training camp and the season, creating hesitation around his draft value in this range.

Availability status remains uncertain heading into the draft. Aiyuk believes he will be available, but the source notes the team's situation is unclear and his presence in the offense is not guaranteed. If signed by Washington, would require projection drop for Terry McLaurin, as his addition would impact McLaurin's target share. Mental health status is a consideration for the 2024 season.

Brian Thomas is one of multiple elite playmakers in Trevor Lawrence's Jacksonville offense, part of a deep receiver corps that provides Lawrence with consistent target opportunities regardless of individual injuries; the depth of weapons means injuries to any single receiver won't impact the offense's ability to find targets.

Brock Purdy is recommended as a safe floor option to pair with a risky upside QB if you miss the mid-range tier (Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert). The source suggests pairing a safe option like Purdy with a more volatile play like Kyler Murray or Malik Willis as a streaming strategy when the premium mid-tier QBs are gone.

Included in the tier of QBs expected to go consecutively once Lamar Jackson is selected; available in rounds five through seven this season, representing a discount on historical ADP for this tier of quarterback.

The source recommends Chase Brown as the top running back at pick 21 in round two, citing strong fundamentals: the Bengals offense is unchanged with the same QB, receivers, and running back room; Chase Brown is a confirmed starter with high reception volume; he was very productive when Burrow was healthy last season and scored many touchdowns. The source states 'Chase Brown was awesome... he's going to be awesome again this season. So we take Chase Brown and Puka right there,' indicating high conviction on his value at this draft position. Projections currently favor him, and the source feels good about him as part of a solid running back group.

Chuba Hubbard is noted as going off the board in the running back tier during this mock draft, indicating he is being selected in the range discussed (around rounds 6-8). The source mentions Hubbard coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

The source loves Loveland as a player but advises against taking him in round three, even in full PPR. He states 'I would not take him in round three even in full PPR. I think he's a round four pick,' indicating his ADP is too aggressive for the round.

Much better in half-PPR format than full PPR; not recommended at this draft stage given existing running back depth.

DJ Moore is assessed as a strong value in the current draft environment. The source identifies him as the top projected wide receiver option and recommends taking the top projected player at the position; if projections are leaning toward Moore over DeAndre Swift, Moore should be the pick, suggesting he has better projected upside in the Bears offense.

Set up phenomenally in full PPR format, where his receiving volume capitalizes on games with six, seven, eight receptions. Source is bullish on his season setup and would prioritize Swift over taking a quarterback at this juncture. However, Swift carries some risk in the Bears offense because both Caleb Williams and Roschon Johnson run for touchdowns, and bad weather games or tough matchups can result in both top-end players hitting negative. Source considers this acceptable late in drafts but would prefer DJ Moore if projections lean that direction.

In full PPR format, Swift is positioned as phenomenally set up for fantasy success; the source projects he could have a top-10 running back season based on the Bears' strong offensive setup, his high reception volume, and the format's fit for his skill set. The source personally prefers Swift over McLaurin due to the massive drop-off at running back after the elite tier. Swift is a great option in round five as the source considers him or Zay Flowers as the play at this juncture, a viable alternative to wide receiver selection given existing running back depth (Chase Brown, Ken Walker). However, the source notes Swift carries some risk in the Bears offense because Caleb Williams and Roschon Johnson both run for touchdowns, and bad weather games or tough matchups can result in both top-end players hitting negative; the source considers this acceptable late in drafts but would prefer DJ Moore if projections lean that direction.

The source loves Dak Prescott as a quarterback option in the range discussed, though Trevor Lawrence is still available and the source prefers waiting one more round to see if they can get one of the next tier of quarterbacks. Dak Prescott is identified as one of the three premium mid-tier QB options alongside Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. The source groups him as a target in round 8 if available, but does not express strong conviction about him relative to Lawrence, instead emphasizing that if you miss the mid-range tier entirely, you should pair a risky upside QB like Kyler Murray or Malik Willis with a safer floor option.

Historically gone in round three; now available in rounds five through seven this season, representing a discount on historical ADP. Included in the tier of QBs expected to go consecutively once Lamar Jackson is selected.

The source explicitly recommends against taking Devontae Smith in round two at pick 21, grouping him with other WRs to avoid: 'Also, there are no wide receivers. I mean, Olive, Rice, uh, Devontto Smith, Garrett Wilson, none of these guys are players we really want to be taking in round two here at pick 21.' The source prefers running backs at this juncture.

Mobile quarterback who finished second in rushing last season; historically gone in round three but available in rounds five through seven this season. Source is bullish on season setup: improved offensive weapons (AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs), offensive line improvement in year two (Trayvon Mullen), and better supporting cast than last season (previously had limited options). Source recommends taking him in round five if available and preferred over other positional needs.

The source explicitly recommends against taking Garrett Wilson in round two at pick 21, grouping him with other WRs to avoid: 'Also, there are no wide receivers. I mean, Olive, Rice, uh, Devontto Smith, Garrett Wilson, none of these guys are players we really want to be taking in round two here at pick 21.' The source prefers running backs at this juncture.

The source targets Isaiah Pacheco as a late-round running back option, grouped with Katon Mitchell and Tai Spears as preferred late-round targets in a draft strategy that prioritizes receivers and tight ends early before circling back to running backs.

The source prefers Jamar Chase over Puka Nakua as the third overall pick in full PPR, stating 'It's going to be Jamar Chase usually after that. Some people like Puka. I prefer Jamar Chase.' This indicates the source views Chase as the safer elite WR option despite Puka's PPR appeal.

Historically gone in round three; now available in rounds five through seven this season, representing a discount on historical ADP. Included in the tier of QBs expected to go consecutively once Lamar Jackson is selected.

Too early to draft at round five; not recommended given existing running back depth with Chase Brown and Ken Walker.

Jared Goff is recommended as a safe floor option to pair with a risky upside QB if you miss the mid-range tier. The source suggests pairing a safe option like Goff with a more volatile play like Kyler Murray or Malik Willis as a streaming strategy when the premium mid-tier QBs are gone.

Great pick if healthy all season. Would not take ahead of Zay Flowers or Luther Burden in full PPR format. Washington's game plan is to get him the ball as much as possible, positioning him as a strong selection despite the format preference for receivers in this range.

Jaylen Warren is noted as going off the board in the running back tier during this mock draft, indicating he is being selected in the range discussed (around rounds 6-8). The source mentions Warren coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

Historically gone in round three at times; now available in rounds five through seven this season, representing discount on historical ADP. Mid-sixth round acquisition characterized as 'a really strong value' by source, representing optimal quarterback timing when drop-off at running back and receiver begins.

The source likes Tyson as a wide receiver prospect with great upside this season in a fast-paced, dome offense. If the top receiver (Azeez Ojora) ever gets injured, Tyson could step into the number one role and perform extraordinarily well. However, the source still prefers taking Stevenson at running back over Tyson at this draft spot.

The source does not recommend taking Josh Allen in round three despite him being QB1, citing poor value relative to mid-range quarterbacks. The source states 'I don't think I'm taking Josh Allen this season... I just think round three still has so many really good players that to take Josh Allen when you know the quarterbacks you can get in the mid-range are really really strong as well. I don't think that's the best value pick.' Quarterbacks available 3–4 rounds later (like Jalen Hurts) are strong enough to justify the savings.

Josh Downs is being moved up over Jaylen Addison in this draft range due to superior ADP value; he plays on the outside for Dallas and can rack up 5–7 receptions in many weeks, outperforming his ADP. The source prefers Downs over Addison because Addison plays behind Justin Jefferson with shaky quarterback play creating more uncertainty.

One of three premium mid-tier QB options alongside Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence, all available in round 8. Not a primary target for early-round QB selection; however, if he falls three rounds past ADP, he becomes a potential late-round value option worth considering, as taking QB early closes the door on such late-round bargains. The source does not express a strong preference for Herbert over Lawrence in this range.

Katon Mitchell is a late-round running back target attached to a good offense; the source projects he can get 10 opportunities per week, making him a viable late-round value play in a two-tight-end strategy.

Kyler Murray is identified as a risky upside option to pair with a safe floor QB like Brock Purdy or Jared Goff if you miss the mid-range tier. The source notes uncertainty about his starter status but acknowledges he could be great this season, making him a high-variance pairing play for streaming strategies.

Next-tier starting quarterback after elite tier; historically gone in round three but available in rounds five through seven this season, representing significant discount on historical ADP. Expected to trigger a run on QBs once selected, with source predicting five to six QBs (May, Daniels, Burrow, Caleb, Hurts) could go consecutively after Lamar is taken.

Offers upside as a wide receiver option in round five. Better in half-PPR format than full PPR. Source would be fine with selection if player wants to play at risk for upside, but Zay Flowers is preferred in full PPR. Presented as alternative wide receiver with upside consideration in this draft round; source explicitly endorses taking him if upside appeal is preferred over Zay Flowers.

Malik Willis is identified as a risky upside option to pair with a safe floor QB like Brock Purdy or Jared Goff if you miss the mid-range tier. The source notes he could run for a thousand yards but expresses uncertainty about his passing volume, making him a high-variance pairing play for streaming strategies.

The source mentions Harrison coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

The source identifies Matthew Golden as his favorite wide receiver option in the late-round draft strategy that prioritizes receivers early before circling back to running backs and tight ends.

Source expresses strong conviction in Evans' season, stating 'I love Mike Evans this season.' Much better in half-PPR than full PPR; projection relies heavily on touchdown opportunity with potential for 12-15 touchdowns this season. Won't accumulate 100 receptions; format-dependent value. Positioned as a preferred wide receiver target alongside McLaurin, though the source acknowledges other solid wide receiver options will be available.

Parker Washington is one of multiple elite playmakers in Trevor Lawrence's Jacksonville offense, part of a deep receiver corps that provides Lawrence with consistent target opportunities regardless of individual injuries; the source notes that if any of Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, Jacobe Meyers, or Parker Washington get injured, it literally doesn't matter to the offense.

In full PPR, the source recommends taking Puka Nakua at pick 4 in a 12-team mock draft, stating 'in full PPR, you know, take Puka. I had pick number four... we'll just take Puka Nakua.' The source prefers Jamar Chase as the third overall pick but acknowledges that some prefer Puka in PPR scoring formats where his high target volume and reception upside are maximized.

The source calls Stevenson a great pick at this draft stage and contrasts him favorably with Trayvon Henry. While Henry should probably go earlier in drafts due to explosiveness, the source hasn't been drafting him much because the fears entering last season came true: Henry has vision issues, runs into blockers, and wasn't as good at pass protection as expected, causing him to ride the bench more. His role is limited to explosive plays when the team is down big. Stevenson, by contrast, is more reliable; he follows blockers, makes the right reads, and gets tough yards consistently. The source would be fine if Stevenson is the last running back taken alongside Chase Brown, Ken Walker, and DeAndre Swift.

The source mentions Pearsall coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

Rico Dowdle is noted as going off the board in the running back tier during this mock draft, indicating he is being selected in the range discussed (around rounds 6-8). The source mentions Dowdle coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

RJ Harvey is noted as going off the board in the running back tier during this mock draft, indicating he is being selected in the range discussed (around rounds 6-8). The source mentions Harvey coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

The source identifies Johnson as one of two top-end Bears players (alongside DeAndre Swift) who can both hit negative in games where the Bears face bad weather or tough teams, limiting Swift's upside.

The source expresses willingness to take a shot on Tank Bigsby in later rounds as a speculative late-round running back option, indicating he's acceptable as an alternative to primary targets like Katon Mitchell, Tai Spears, and Isaiah Pacheco.

Great pick despite Washington's overall rankings adjustment downward due to reduced no-huddle approach. Washington's game plan is to get him the ball as much as possible; could be one of his most targeted seasons. Source maintains his projection despite overall Washington downgrade and explicitly states 'I love Terry McLuren this season.' Won't get 10 targets every game but remains strong selection.

Tony Pollard is noted as going off the board in the running back tier during this mock draft, indicating he is being selected in the range discussed (around rounds 6-8). The source mentions Pollard coming off the board in the draft range discussed, indicating he was selected in this portion of the mock draft.

Travis Hunter is one of multiple elite playmakers in Trevor Lawrence's Jacksonville offense, part of a deep receiver corps that provides Lawrence with consistent target opportunities regardless of individual injuries; the source notes that if any of Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, Jacobe Meyers, or Parker Washington get injured, it literally doesn't matter to the offense.

The source identifies Trevor Lawrence as the quarterback to target in round 8, noting a significant 16-point gap in ranking between him (79th overall) and the next tier (95th overall). The source believes now is the time to take Lawrence, as the drop-off after him is steep and the next range becomes much more of a streamer situation. Lawrence is one of three premium mid-tier QB options alongside Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert, all available in round 8. He has a very good offense featuring numerous playmakers (Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington); the depth of weapons means injuries to any single receiver won't impact his ability to find targets. He also has underrated rushing mobility that adds value. If he falls three rounds past ADP, he becomes a potential late-round value option worth considering, as taking QB early closes the door on such late-round bargains.

The source explicitly avoids drafting Trey McBride in main leagues this season, stating 'I'm not on McBride this season. Uh, if I was drafting, you know, a main league, I'll get a little bit of underdog, but in main league, I would not draft Trey McBride this year.' This represents a clear fade on the tight end despite his prior draft capital.

Tyler Shough is identified as a risky upside option to pair with a safe floor QB like Brock Purdy or Jared Goff if you miss the mid-range tier. The source groups him with Kyler Murray and Malik Willis as high-variance plays for streaming strategies.

Top wide receiver in full PPR format. Capitalizes on games with six, seven, eight receptions where lack of touchdowns matters less. Preferred over Luther Burden in full PPR despite Burden's upside. Data supports wide receiver selection at this draft juncture. Selected in mock draft as preferred wide receiver pick in this round; source trusts overall rankings data indicating wide receiver is the best positional move at this draft juncture.