Duval in the Family: Previewing the AFC South
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 5, 2026
Published
Wed, August 5, 2026
17
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Cam WardTrevor LawrenceAlec PierceBrenton StrangeBrian Thomas Jr.C.J. StroudCalvin RidleyCarnell TateDalton SchultzDaniel JonesJonathan TaylorMarlin KleinParker WashingtonTank Dell
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveRole46:08
Alec Pierce is viewed as a high-upside receiver who provides necessary 'gravity' to the Colts' offense, potentially offering a higher ceiling than Michael Pittman Jr. did. While currently dealing with an injury, he is expected to be a key component for opening up opportunities for teammates like Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageBrenton Strange
PositiveRole24:24
Brenton Strange is viewed as a high-upside, all-around tight end who was a key part of the run game early in the season. His health and potential for increased 12-personnel usage are expected to provide the Jaguars with necessary personnel flexibility.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeRole27:18
Brian Thomas Jr.'s role has become more concretized following the emergence of Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers. Early season struggles were attributed to communication issues and timing on deep routes between him and Trevor Lawrence, but these issues largely resolved in the second half of the season.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection5:08
Despite a poor playoff performance, Stroud was statistically strong during the regular season, ranking 11th in QBR and top-15 in most meaningful metrics. He showed improvement in time-to-throw and sack avoidance. Mina Kimes and Brett Coleman argue his late-season struggles were likely due to the cumulative effect of playing behind a poor offensive line, leading him to press and force plays in high-stakes situations.
Insight pageCalvin Ridley
NegativeRole104:51
Mina Kimes notes that with the additions of other receivers, there is no longer immense pressure on Calvin Ridley to be the sole "legit dude" in the receiving corps.
Insight pageCam Ward
PositiveProjection58:14
Despite high numbers of off-target incompletions and rookie struggles with pressure, Cam Ward is viewed as a high-upside quarterback who shows flashes of brilliance and consistent improvement. His ability to learn and improve throughout games and the season, combined with the coaching of Brian Daboll, suggests he could see a significant 'glow up' similar to other successful young quarterbacks.
Insight pagePositiveProjection104:24
Mina Kimes expresses optimism for Cam Ward's development, noting he deserves grace for poor circumstances last year; he was 9th in precision pass rate on 20+ yard throws despite poor receiver play.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout104:44
Mina Kimes notes that Carnell Tate solves the team's receiver problems with his ability to catch the football, provide gravity, and make big plays downfield, even if he isn't a elite separator against man coverage.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeRole14:54
Schultz is described as a reliable, middle-class tight end who serves as a solid pass catcher but lacks elite blocking ability, which contributed to the Texans' need to draft additional tight end depth.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury38:32
Despite skepticism regarding his recovery from an Achilles injury, reports from camp suggest Daniel Jones looks functional. However, there is concern about whether he can maintain the elite sack-avoidance and mobility he displayed in the first eight weeks of last season, which were critical to his high-level performance.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeUsage41:57
Jonathan Taylor was not the primary engine of the Colts' offense last season, as the team prioritized explosive plays on first down via the pass. Taylor's role was primarily focused on second down to keep the offense on track and third down to convert short-yardage situations.
Insight pageMarlin Klein
PositiveRole13:01
The Texans drafted Marlon Klein to address their need for a true 'Y' tight end who can block, as the team struggled to run the ball effectively without a tight end capable of holding up in the trenches.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout26:23
Parker Washington emerged as a key target in the second half of the season, ranking ninth league-wide in yards per route run from week 11 onward, ahead of elite receivers like A.J. Brown and George Pickens. His success is attributed to strong contact balance and contested catch ability, with a combined 64% contested catch rate alongside Jacoby Myers during that stretch.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveInjury12:55
Tank Dell is confirmed to be active and back from injury, which is a significant development for the Texans' receiving corps.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection21:23
Trevor Lawrence performed as a top-five quarterback in nearly every metric during the second half of the season, leading the Jaguars to high efficiency in EPA per pass and drop-back success rate.
Insight pagePositiveProjection22:10
Trevor Lawrence showed significant improvement in the second half of the season, ranking top five in every major metric including EPA per pass and dropback success rate. While some of this was due to better offensive line play and improved chemistry with receivers, the continuity of having the same head coach and offensive coordinator provides optimism for continued growth in year two of the current system.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
PositiveUsage104:32
Mina Kimes describes Wan'Dale Robinson as an "innings eater" who will catch a high volume of passes, projecting him to be a reliable target in the offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This message is brought to you by Apple Card, Shave Ice by the Beach, A Trip to the State Fair, and a Throwback Flick at the local drive-in.
0:09They're more than just items to check off the summer bucket list.
0:13There are also opportunities to earn 2% daily cash back when you use your AppleCard with ApplePay.
0:18Apply for AppleCard now and use InMinutes with ApplePay.
0:21Subject to credit approval, AppleCard is issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City branch.
0:26Terms and more at AppleCard.com Welcome back to the Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, only NFL Podcast.
0:31Where the host sounds like Vaisal Tootin when he eats garbage.
0:35That's Lenny. I'm Mina Kimes. He's Tootin. Vaisal Tootin plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team we're going to talk about today,
0:41because it's time to discuss, to preview the AFC South.
0:45Brett Coleman is my guest. He is a Texans affiliate.
0:48Did you grow up in Houston? Or what's your next story?
0:51Well, my dad worked in Houston when I was growing up and I didn't have any affection for any of the California
0:58teams because I lived in Orange County. And so rooting for anything like San Diego or LA didn't make sense.
1:04And I was like, well, my dad lives in Houston.
1:07So I'll root for the Texans. Then he moved to Chicago for work.
1:12So I was like, okay, I'm also going to take the Bears as an NFC team.
1:17And I've, I've resented him ever since. It's like, you couldn't move to Boston or somewhere else.
1:22But now it's an exciting time. Maybe we'll find out after our conversation today.
1:26The Houston Texans, I feel like they're like the sneaky hipster Super Bowl pick at the moment, which makes me a little bit nervous.
1:34Although we do have some optimism around them. I did.
1:37I told you before I went on Bill Simmons podcast, we're taped this morning and I ended up like on an impassioned
1:44defense of CJ Stroud after preparing for this podcast and going back and watching the Texans.
1:49We will get into that. We will get into my beloved Jags SVPs, beloved Jags.
1:54I don't know if you heard that. I had no idea.
1:57Cam Ward, very fun rewatch the Colts. Daniel Jones is alive.
2:00So this is a fun division. I'm really excited to get into it.
2:05Before we start, where can folks check out your work, Brett?
2:08Boy, you can find me all over this season, you know, on my own channel, as well as on the bootleg football podcast.
2:15We do two shows a week over there. Although right now we're doing four shows a week because we're doing 60 to
2:2290 minute previews of every individual team with their own episodes.
2:26Ironically, we're recording the AFC South this week as well.
2:29So I've done a lot of prep for this show.
2:32Okay, we are not gonna be doing six. This is not a four hour podcast.
2:37But we will do our best. If you're a fan of one of these four teams or just want to learn a little bit more about them.
2:45Let's start with the Texans. The favorites. The as I mentioned, hipster Super Bowl pick.
2:50I don't feel like we really have to spend much time talking about the Texas defense.
2:55We can talk about them for a little bit.
2:58But nobody really needs to hear us say over and over.
3:01They're awesome. We can get into it. But let's start with the offense because this is where this thing will sink or rise.
3:08Last memory is pretty tough. Very difficult playoff performance for CJ Stroud, statistically one of the worst all time.
3:14And it's a shame because when you actually go back and take a look at his stats and we'll get to the
3:21film in a second over the course of a season, he was actually quite good.
3:26I wouldn't say it wasn't his rookie year level, but he was 11th in QBR.
3:31He was when you splice it up top 10 to 15 in pretty much every meaningful quarterback stat.
3:36He was good on third down. He was good under pressure.
3:40He improved on some things over last year that I think are worth noting.
3:44His time to throw came down a little bit.
3:47He took way fewer sacks. That's relevant. Because I don't think the offensive line did him any favors.
3:53And Brett, that was kind of my number one takeaway going back and watching the regular, forget the postseason, which we can talk, we should talk about that.
4:01But watching the regular season, what struck me was how hamstrung the entire operation was by the fact that the offensive line was so bad.
4:09The passing game under Nick Cayley tried a bunch of stuff, but when you look at all their tendencies, it's all things
4:16that offensive coordinators do when they have to because the offensive line sucks.
4:20Max protect, putting an extra line in on the field.
4:23They were second in quick game rate behind Aaron Rodgers, of course.
4:2740% of the time he was outside the pocket.
4:30Like they were just constantly trying to find ways and answers to solve what was their biggest flaw, which was the offensive line.
4:37And to me, it, the biggest damage that line did to their own offense wasn't even pass pro.
4:43I thought they got better in pass pro as the year went on.
4:47Obviously started out disastrous, but their inability to block in the run game, like entirely completely sunk this.
4:52They were 30th in average yards before contact per attempt at 0.8.
4:56So you couldn't even get a yard before the running backs were getting hit.
5:01And when you package that together with, you know, the Sean McVay influence, which is, Hey, we're going to be, you know,
5:08leading the league in 11 personnel snaps and also being the highest first down run rate.
5:13Because they try to do the whole, you know, like, Oh, we have receivers that can be insert blockers on that kind of thing.
5:20They tried to do that except without having the personnel to be able to do it.
5:25They couldn't block. So that shocked me when I saw the first down run rate.
5:30Do you know how many yards per carry they average running on first down?
5:343.6. Yeah. If it was over three and a half, I was going to be surprised.
5:3931st in the NFL, in case anyone was wondering.
5:42Okay, please continue because I have so many, yes, notes on how awful the run game was.
5:47But there's the cascading effect, right? If you are hoping for second and seven, like if that's a successful first down by
5:54your standards is second and seven, you're already behind the eight ball.
5:58Right. We're going to talk about the Colts a little bit.
6:01And they treated first down as like their chance to get an explosive play.
6:06The Texans were like, Oh, we're going to, we're going to try to get four and a half yards here and get to second and medium.
6:14And that's just with their inability to block. They couldn't pull that off.
6:18They couldn't even get four and a half yards.
6:21Like you said, they barely got three and a half.
6:24And so if you're constantly turning every second down and then every third down into a must pass situation, because you can't
6:31get anything on first down, it's kind of a miracle that they were what 13th in scoring last year.
6:37Like I can't believe it. Despite the fact that they averaged negative 0.1 EPA per rush inside the red zone.
6:43How is that even possible? At that point, just sneak it, just sneak it.
6:48You're going to get more yards. Um, the S and then as far as like the run game being awful, I would
6:55posit that it was more about the offensive line than the backs that's substantiated by the data.
7:00Um, there were 30th in yards before contact for carry, but 14th and yards after, and they're actually 19th and rushing yards
7:07over expected, which tells you that the, the backs were not the primary villains in this story.
7:12Now they did upgrade their running back room. They went out and got David Montgomery.
7:17Um, and then perhaps more importantly, they made a lot of change in the offensive line.
7:22And I kind of think we got to start there, right?
7:25Like, yeah. So I was skeptical of the offensive line choices.
7:29They made weirdly last year. Like the, I'm not taking a victory lock here because like Ingram actually ended up being pretty good.
7:36So, you know, whatever, but, um, brought in some new players.
7:39Braden Smith on the right side, Wyatt Teller. I think that was better.
7:43Keelan Rucketledge might play, you know, uh, might start for them.
7:47He's kind of a guard slash center. I think they're hoping Ursary is their left tackle takes a step forward.
7:53I would argue he was better in this kind of line line, what you said, pass protection, then run blocking.
7:59Do you feel that this run game as a whole, given all the changes I just mentioned can be better?
8:06Because I think we agree that this was like, it sunk the entire offense at times.
8:11Could it be worse? Like, is it even possible to be worse?
8:15It's terrible. I will say even as questionable or rather with as many questions as we have about the offensive line, this
8:21is still the most talented, the talented group they probably had in close to a decade.
8:26Right. Cause Keelan Rutledge is a freak athlete. I actually interviewed him at the combine and he is, I'll say this.
8:33He is wired correctly to be an offensive lineman.
8:36Like that dude is a maniac. Wyatt Teller, obviously, you know, when he's been healthy, has played at a high level at Ingram look better last year.
8:44Braden Smith, um, you know, him and Ursary together.
8:47Like it's a functional tackle duo. Ursary, I thought also got better as the year went on.
8:52It's not a bad line. If they could be average, they'll be fine.
8:57Depths to Blake Fisher, Trent Brown. Yeah, I think average is the goal to aspire to.
9:02Um, because again, the run game was either the worst or close to it along with like the Raiders and if they can just be average.
9:10And it's so important for the reasons you described in terms of like how it just set them behind the eight ball on down to down basis.
9:18The way it impacted the entire offense spoke about that.
9:21Um, because, you know, I talked about how, like how they had to compensate for the offensive line in terms of calling the pass game.
9:29But the reason they had to do that is because they were in second and seven and not second and five.
9:36Right. Things like that. Knowing that they couldn't trust the offensive line to hold up for a long time, which brings us back to CJ Stroud.
9:44Okay. So, like I said, not as bad as the playoffs, but he was really bad in the playoffs.
9:50I posited a theory to Bill Simmons that I want to run by you.
9:54And I was talking about him and Justin Herbert, which is I sometimes feel who was also awful in the playoffs.
10:01I sometimes feel like quarterbacks, if they play in like really off behind awful offensive lines over the course of an entire
10:08season, it kind of adds up, adds up, adds up.
10:11And then just skims too much and they do too much or they start to emulate, make bad choices.
10:17That is probably the optimistic view of what happened with CJ Stroud.
10:21Are you, do you share that optimistic view or is that last memory of those two games burned in your mind and you're fearful of his long-term prospects?
10:29Over the course of four months, if you lose trust in your offensive line, which let's be honest, I'm not sure they
10:36even went into the year with trust in their offensive line.
10:40You get to the playoffs when it's win or go home.
10:43And your thought process, even if you try to fight against it, your thought process as the quarterback is, if I don't do something, we're going to lose.
10:52Right? Like I can't rely. No Dalton Schultz also.
10:55Right. And, and you start pressing. And when you press against a high level NFL defense, you're going to pay for it.
11:02And he paid for it over and over and over again, unfortunately.
11:06After like the third one, you hope he would have learned his lesson, but it is what it is.
11:12I will say this team had the third lowest average margin of defeat this season at 4.8 points.
11:17It started out 0-3. One of those was like a one point loss to the Bucs.
11:22But their average loss was 4.8. Miami's was almost 16 points.
11:26So even when they lost, they didn't get blown out.
11:29Their first multi-possession loss was the playoffs. So all he had to do was just be normal and they probably would have been okay.
11:36Why can't you be normal? Yeah, I know. Imagine watching that as a Texans fan, by the way.
11:42It was, it was brutal. I think my fear though with him is that like I, all off season, it's like, dude,
11:49all you had to do was just, you know, drive the car and not be crazy and hand the ball.
11:55Like, I mean, but it's not true though, because he couldn't hand the ball off.
12:00And I honestly don't think Nick Haley did him any favors like either, but that's me to hear another.
12:06I do one thing fear I do have is that it, it, he might be too conservative because of it.
12:12I don't want that to happen if I'm a Texans fan, because when I think about CJ Stroud and when he's at
12:19his best, it's ripping those in breakers over the middle of the field, right?
12:23It's making plays on the run. It's there's a level of aggression to his game.
12:28That is important. I think he's not a point guard quarterback.
12:32He is not a guy who, you know, you're merely asking to keep the train running on time.
12:37However, he does need to be more of, he did need to be more of that, especially because of the defense.
12:44The only fun, the final thing I'll mention about the offense, um, as far as the skill players goes, uh, there's our
12:51Jalen Knowles hurt, which is not great. Um, tank Dell is active, which is interesting.
12:55He is finally back. We'll see what that looks like.
12:59They drafted a tight end fairly early, Marlon Klein.
13:01I do wonder, Brett, if that means Nick Cayley, you know, this is a team that barely used, you know, really the
13:08part of the reason they use so much like jumbo is because they had to, they didn't have other options.
13:15Do you think that might signal a little bit of a change in philosophy from personnel perspective or what are you expecting from Nick Cayley this year?
13:23I mean, total number of tight ends drafted this year was what?
13:27Like 22, right? We'll get to the Jags. Which I understood why the Jags made that big.
13:32Again, we will get to them, but there's a reason why a lot of the tight ends that went early were also your big body.
13:40Why tight end types is because teams realize like, Hey, if we're going to run the ball, we need to have a tight end.
13:47They can actually block. We can't do this. Like Evan Ingram, Isaiah likely thing where we have a 240, 245 pound tight
13:54end that like sorta kinda is there, but not really effective because teams figured out that if we can just punish the
14:01tight end, we can basically shut down your run game.
14:04That's again, to your point, that's why they used a lot of six offensive linemen.
14:09It's like, we don't have a tight end that can block.
14:13You look at the bills two years ago, they led the league in six offensive linemen.
14:18Then they drafted Jackson Hawes, a tight end that can block.
14:21Magically, they stopped needing to do that. So I do think the Klein pick was very much it.
14:27We need an actual Y tight end and the league is starting to trend that way as you see teams upping 12
14:34and 13 personnel and then throwing out of it.
14:36But they feel like they can't actually threaten the run unless they have a tight end out there.
14:42That's actually worth something. Right? Like Schultz is, he's kind of like your classic middle-class tight end, maybe a little bit better than that.
14:50That's might be selling him a little bit short.
14:52He's kind of in that second tier of like, you know, he's like a reliable pass catcher, not a dominant blocker by any means.
15:00Brevin Jordan's like a move tight end. So yeah, it was a profile that they needed and it should hypothetically.
15:06You don't want to put too much on a rookie in terms of like, this is going to change everything for the Texans offense.
15:14But clearly there was a desire to get more physical and to improve the run game because they recognized and self-scouted how bad it was last season.
15:22And, you know, I think to put a pin on it, like I am skeptical that this is going to be an above average offensive line.
15:30But if it's even in that 15 to 25 range, I'll take it.
15:34If you can get the run game. You got to score 17 points.
15:39Closer there. Right. Okay. Well, that brings us to the defense.
15:42Oh, really quick though on Stroud. I am buying low.
15:45Did you see Sandoz quarterback tiers? Had him below Aaron Rodgers.
15:4942-year-old Aaron Rodgers. Yeah. Those are the tiers where Mike Sandoz surveys the league.
15:53I just feel like. I still think the league though, like they just, they remember what Aaron was five years ago.
16:00And I still think there's kind of a. And the playoff.
16:03From that. Yeah. Playoff drought. And yeah. Okay. The defense.
16:06So they were number one on my top 10 defenses pod.
16:10Talked about them at length. Texas fans. You can go check that out.
16:14Since then, they have signed Jadavion Clowney. Which they actually like, I joked about on Twitter.
16:19I was like, wow, they could really use him.
16:22But like, they could. They actually could use him.
16:24They could have. They needed depth. Right. And you know, I think I mentioned this when they drafted Kate and McDonald, which is a pick I loved.
16:33If there was one area where I thought, okay, this team could get a little bit better outside of adding another linebacker, which they didn't really.
16:41It was maybe like run defense, short yardage run defense.
16:44So. I don't know. I don't feel like there's any way to talk about the Texans defense other than to ask, are there any weaknesses?
16:52They're going to be expensive in a couple of years.
16:55Right. Like right now, as good as they are, they're 20.
16:59It's either 21st or 23rd in terms of how expensive they are.
17:02Right. They're cheaper than the Cardinals. They're 75. Yeah.
17:05Like they have a bunch of guys they're going to have to pay.
17:09Some of them, they already paid. But because of, you know, how fifth year option works and void years and everything, like
17:16the cap doesn't spike super early for it. I think their edge group is ninth in terms of how expensive they are.
17:23So yeah, it'll get expensive eventually. But the fact that they're still that good while being that cheap does give this team
17:30the flexibility to go out and pay a couple offensive linemen.
17:33Like the only reason they could do that is because they hit on these defensive picks.
17:38And also one one other note, they might be the only defense I've seen in recent memory that was 31st in blitz
17:45rate and still second in pressure rate. Like that's how good they are.
17:49You know, it's crazy. Your first EPA play when they got pressure.
17:53They were first EPA play when they didn't get pressure because the secondary is full of absolute freaks.
17:59I mean, it's crazy how good they are at all three levels.
18:03I guess linebacker that I won't say is a weakness so much as an area of thinness.
18:08Like if you take I'll shy ear out. Yeah, it gets scary pretty quick.
18:12Yeah, nowhere to go after. And EJ speed was heard.
18:15So, you know, they have Henry to a two and Martin Mapu.
18:19But that's the one. You know, like the Rams offensive tackle is there is that would be the one thing on the
18:26Houston's trying to pick knits, but I'm picking knits.
18:29They're fantastic. I mean, the secondary corner group is, if not the best, close to the best in the NFL.
18:35They added Reed Blankenship, which would have been their only area of like last year, like safety.
18:41Like, I think he's an awesome fit for what they do.
18:44I think he's going to get his hands on the football a decent amount.
18:48Yeah, man. Like I there's the one thing I found was, again, they could have been better in the red zone.
18:55But I do think that adding those run defenders helps as well.
18:59Do you think Caden McDonald will see the field much here, Juan?
19:03I think he will just because he's such a force multiplier on early downs, right?
19:07That gets them to third and long because teams are scared to death of having to throw against this team.
19:13So they're going to try to to establish the run on early downs and get to third and medium because the last
19:20place you want to be is third and eight in Houston.
19:24I'll tell you that much. So I think they brought him in because they knew if there was a way to neutralize,
19:31not even neutralize, if there was a way to lessen the impact of Anderson and of Daniil, it's to not let them get to favorable pass for situations.
19:40And so they shored that up immediately by bringing in Caden.
19:43Plus, they had lost some guys in free agency.
19:46And, you know, they were still trying to find like that absolute killer that they used to have and Malik Collins, who
19:53then went on to have a great year in Cleveland before he got injured.
19:57And so it was just kind of addressing a need before it became a need.
20:02And also, he's a great fit for the room.
20:05Like, he's an awesome dude. You know, they've they really needed that kind of ass kicking nose tackle.
20:10And, you know, the one thing that can make a semi thin linebacking core a lot better is not ever seeing them get blocked.
20:18So that helps. And this is a nickel defense.
20:21So, you know, they don't play that many linebackers.
20:23Yeah, I like McDonald, man. I liked his tape a lot.
20:27I think the divisive debate was whether or not he had upside as a pass rusher.
20:32There were games where I felt like I saw it and we'll see what he becomes in the NFL, but really couldn't
20:39ask for a better situation to Texas defense. They're awesome.
20:42I don't know what else to say. I sorry if Texans fans, if you want more talk about your defense, go check out the top 10 defenses pod.
20:51The offense is the question this season. All right, let's let's do the Jags next.
20:55And a team I'm also very high on a very balanced football team is how I would describe the Jacksonville Jaguars.
21:02I think that they have potential to have both the top 10 offense and a top 10 defense.
21:08I had them top 10 defenses. I wanted to squeeze them into my top 10 offenses and they were just outside Brett.
21:15So let's start here with a big kind of overarching picture question for you.
21:19In the second half of the season, this has been talked about much.
21:23The Texas Jaguars offense was fourth in EPA per pass, fifth in yards per pass, fourth in drop back success rate.
21:30Trevor Lawrence was top five, three every metric. Are you buying it?
21:33Or do you think second half of the season?
21:36I don't know. Let's not overreact to one half of a good Trevor Lawrence season.
21:41It's so easy with a team like the Jags to just pull on different data threads that'll take you to completely different destinations.
21:48And so you really have to zoom out and look at the macro.
21:52Right. And was it effective? Yes, it was effective.
21:55Were there areas of improvement that still need to be done?
21:59Yes, obviously. You know, we look at just Trevor's accuracy.
22:02First 10 weeks versus second half of the season.
22:04He was eighth best in terms of limiting off-targeting completions in that stretch run.
22:09He was 23rd in the first half of the season.
22:12Part of that was because, OK, the emergence of Parker Washington as arguably the guy.
22:17And then you got Jacoby Myers there. Like his numbers thrown to those two compared to when he was trying to force it to beat DJ early.
22:25Very different. At the same time, you also have to consider the offensive line.
22:30You know, Colvin Lannan didn't start getting starts until the second half of the year.
22:34And in the first half of the year, they were 29th in pressure rate allowed on true dropbacks.
22:40They were seventh from week 11 on. So that also helped a lot, too.
22:44So it's to me, I don't even look at it as, oh, Trevor played better.
22:49Like, yes, he did. But we have to contextualize it as to why.
22:53Right. He was thrown to receivers. They had a better connection with.
22:57And his offensive line found a left tackle out of nowhere that allowed less than a pressure and a half per game during their stretch run.
23:05That mattered a lot. So I think it was a full team effort.
23:09Liam Cohen also, you know, played a role in this.
23:12Yes. They had a really, really tough screen game in the first half of the season.
23:17They just stopped doing it in the second half of the season.
23:21The Liam Cohen part, too, is important because new offense, some complexity there.
23:25And it felt like in the first half of the season they were still figuring that out.
23:30Right. The timing of it. Receivers weren't always where they were supposed to be.
23:35The motions, very motion heavy, all that. And then the second half, it started to click.
23:40And that kind of would give me some optimism.
23:43It's like, okay, cool. Year two, right? With this offense, we get the same head coach.
23:48It's a great thing about having a head coach.
23:51This is your offensive coordinator. You ain't going to lose them.
23:54So I do think that gives me some cause for optimism.
23:57The receivers you mentioned, the offensive line, Van Linden has an injury.
24:01I think he's supposed to be good for week one.
24:04But the receivers are still there. They didn't trade BTJ.
24:08But Jacoby Myers at Parker Washington, who I'll talk about in a second, are still there.
24:13One weird thing. And the other thing also, but by the way, one more thing I'd like to add that makes me
24:19optimistic that they can keep building on that. I'm like a huge Bretton Strange fan.
24:24And he was hurt. And then he came back.
24:27But I think having him full season healthy is very important.
24:30We alluded to this. They drafted a blocking tight end, Nate Berkacher.
24:34I think that gives them some personnel flexibility that they were lacking in the second half of the season.
24:40The funny thing, Brett, is all the numbers went up, but the run game got dramatically worse.
24:45In fact, I mentioned all the great passing numbers.
24:48In the second half of the season, they were 31st in EPA per carry and 31st in success rate, which came to
24:55bite them in a big way in the playoffs against the Bills defense.
24:59And everybody was screaming, please run the damn ball on them.
25:03So I do wonder if that would be the one thing that gives me a little bit cause for concern.
25:09Because I don't want to say A-chan was great or a massive loss.
25:13But like, you know, Tootin, Chris Rodriguez, who has been familiar with Cohen.
25:17We couldn't Allen as a blocker. The offensive line is okay.
25:21I don't think they're 31st, but I do question.
25:23I think the best case scenario is maybe either Berkacher is a really good blocking tight end and that helps or the
25:30passing game actually forces defenses to, you know, sit back a little bit and create some room on the ground.
25:37I also I'm trying to remember the defenses they played in that stretch run when the run game fell apart.
25:43I'm pretty sure Denver was in there. I know Houston was in there.
25:47So they also did play against some really good defense.
25:50They faced a lot of base to randomly. Yes.
25:53Yes. Shocking to me. And that's what a lot of teams started doing was they were starting to play base into 11.
26:00Right. Because a lot of teams tried to run out of 11 and then throw out of 12.
26:05And so teams were like, okay, well, then we're just going to put big people against small.
26:11It was a whole meta game that happened throughout the season, which like we could dedicate a whole episode to that.
26:17So I was in the receiver group. Is this a good time to talk about my learn savior, Parker Washington?
26:24Oh, I've got a stat for you. This is crazy.
26:27I love him. Give me yours. So in the stretch run, right?
26:31They had 44 deep targets from week 11 on.
26:33They had 20 deep catches. BTJ had three of them, only three on 44 targets.
26:38Parker Washington tripled him. He was arguably the number one.
26:41He was absolutely the number one. He was ninth league wide in yards per route run versus that stretch ahead of A.J.
26:48Brown, George Pickens, Amarossi Brown, and Chris Lafayette. And here's the thing I want to emphasize.
26:53After going back and rewatching, it is not fluky.
26:56It is not like, you know, wide open just because of all the attention.
27:00Sure, he had some easier matchups because when BTJ was out there and whatnot.
27:05But like going back and watching the second half of the season, there's so many things about his game that stood out to me.
27:12Pardon me. The strength, I think, is the thing that I probably loved the most.
27:17Like he made some tight, like difficult catches. Hang.
27:20There's one versus Indianapolis, which is a great game.
27:23The Colts are playing like cover two man. His guy goes with him.
27:27Nick Cross recovers. Lays him the hell out. Like he does a full over the middle of the field, holds on to the football.
27:34It's incredible catch against Denver. Great defense. The yards after the catch, he was able to pick off just shedding guys on the ground.
27:42Unreal. Unreal. Like his contact balance is so special.
27:45I'm not saying he's a top, you know, elite 10 receiver in football, but I really think he is like a legit dude.
27:52He's important to them. Right. And so is Jacoby.
27:55Right. If you're looking at contested catch rate, like a top tier contested catch rate in football is 50 percent.
28:01Like we always say, oh, you got to come down with the 50 50s.
28:05Like there's actually not that many receivers that can do that.
28:09Their contested contested catch rate, Jacoby and Parker combined in that stretch run was 64 percent.
28:14Like Trevor was just saying, like, screw it. They're down there somewhere.
28:18And they were paying it off, which is what they needed because they were trying to do that with BTJ early.
28:24And they just could not get on the same page.
28:27I actually went back and I looked at every single BTJ target in the first 10 weeks.
28:33I was trying to figure out, like, what's what's the pattern here?
28:36What's going on? Like, is it a BTJ thing?
28:39Is it a Trevor thing? The answer, unfortunately, it was both right.
28:43The way if you go back to the Bengals game, like BTJ kind of slow played some releases on go routes, which
28:50Trevor was like, no, you got to go. I need to see like what position the corners in.
28:56So I need to know if I can put this back shoulder or leave it deep.
29:01And he was slow playing it. So Trevor had to guess, which then led to some batting completions.
29:06Then you have Trevor just flat out missing him deep down the field.
29:10There was a touchdown against the Titans where he was gone on a double move.
29:15And Trevor, like no pressure, just left it short, made him stop, you know, took six off the board.
29:21Like it was just both of them. If it wasn't one, it was the other.
29:26And then somehow week 11 onward, you get these two guys that just click with him and all the issues, all the communication problems just melted away.
29:34And we saw what this past game could be.
29:37It should clarify things too for BTJ. This, you know, I think just his role has become a little bit more concretized
29:44because of the emergence of those two receivers. And yeah, they have options, right?
29:48Like they want to do more 12 personnel with Strange.
29:51I think Strange is so good too. I'm such a fan of his guy.
29:56I think he's like a true all around tight end as well and can really help.
30:01And the first half of the season when they were running the football better, he was a big part of that.
30:07And I think if he can get back to that, that should help.
30:11So yeah, man, I'm really high on this offense.
30:14I'm still a little worried about the offensive line and I don't know if it's going to be like a dominant run
30:21game, but I think they'd also, by the way, I'm curious to see if yeah, if a pregnant and take the job
30:28from the car, the guard that they drafted at Oregon, um, defensively too, like this is, I had them six or seventh.
30:35I can't remember. I think they're really good. I like this is one of those defenses where you take a step back
30:42and you look at the death chart and Josh Hyde's Allen is maybe like an A to A minus, you know, whatever Hunter.
30:49We'll see what they got in him. It's just a lot of guys who were at least B plus players.
30:55And that sounds critical. So she coming off the heels of the Texans.
31:00But I mean, that as a compliment, like they have so many good players.
31:04I think there's a question about how many great players they have, but like Brett, they're, they're full of really talented players at all through it.
31:12Linebackers a little bit of weakness, but they're really solid everywhere else.
31:16The one area that I really have questions about still is interior defensive line.
31:20You know, this team was tied with the Bengals at 31st for among all interior defensive line rotations for pressure rate.
31:27They were not good at getting after the passer from the inside.
31:31That was actually a big reason why this team was also fourth in stunt rate is because they realized the only way
31:37they could make a quarterback uncomfortable up the middle was stunting one of their good edges inside and then getting them matched
31:44up on a guard or just trying to find a seam in there and just sending their defensive tackles off to go be like contain rushers.
31:53So like, you're not going to win. We're going to let the edges do all the heavy lifting.
31:58And they still kind of have that problem. Like Eric Armstead, you know, he dealt with an injury last year, but even
32:05before his injury, he was doing nothing as a pass rusher.
32:09So they still got to figure that out. You know, the linebacking core isn't bad, but it's not as good as it was.
32:16You know, when you're losing on exactly play a little bit last year.
32:20Yeah. And then there was the Tyson Campbell trade, which was very.
32:24An underrated fleecing, and I kind of understood why they did it, why they traded him to Cleveland, because he's a great man corner.
32:31And this is a defense that on first and second down, they're like 90 to 95 percent zone.
32:37Right. They didn't play man till third down. But then we wonder why they couldn't cover anybody on third down.
32:43It's like, well, you just traded away your best man corner and you actually play a lot of man coverage on third down.
32:50The guy they traded Tyson Campbell for isn't on the team anymore.
32:54Meanwhile, Tyson Campbell's going to thrive in Cleveland. So again, some of the personnel moves they've made on defense, I wasn't a huge fan of.
33:02But like, it's a good. I would argue they don't need either of them, though, because if Hunter is, you know, full
33:09second half against the Rams, the against Devontae Adams is the game that really sold me on him.
33:14I thought it was very tricky cover. I thought he was really good.
33:19I was talented. Yeah. Monteric Brown was great. I think maybe a little bit like, hey, was that one?
33:24You know, like how do you feel good about that?
33:28Continuing. I think Jordan Lewis is a really good slot.
33:31Antonio Johnson was awesome. Takes on a bigger role this year.
33:34So they had really good players. It's a team that got turned the ball over a lot to defense last year.
33:41There were third in turnovers tied with Seattle. But I'm not super worried about regression the way I am with like a
33:48Chicago, because when you take out turnovers for comparison sakes, Chicago was 30th in EPA per play, 32nd in success rate.
33:54Oh, that good. 30th in yards per play. When you take out turnovers for the Jags, they were 7th in EPA per
34:01play, 14th in success rate, 9th in yards per play.
34:04So they were a fundamentally solid team. And I think a lot of that, and this is where you do worry a
34:11little bit about the loss of Lloyd. But for me, a lot of that just starts with how good they were against the run.
34:19Totally agree with you about interior pressure. But that defensive line was stout, dude.
34:23That was something like the Bills game. I was thinking like, this is a Bills team that's just mashed everybody.
34:29And they're holding their own. Like teams were afraid to run the ball on this Jacksonville team.
34:35Really good tackling defense. So again, Lloyd is a tough loss in that regard because I think he was excellent against the run.
34:42But I do think there's some like stability there that'll continue, coupled with the fact that they have a defensive coordinator in
34:49Anthony Campanile, who, you know, I think is like one of the rising guys around the league.
34:54Then getting him back for year two was massive.
34:57Well, both are coordinators, right? Campanile and Udinski. They both were getting head coach looks and they lured both of them back.
35:04Now, can they do that again after this season?
35:07Remains to be seen. I'd be willing to bet they got two new coordinators in 2027.
35:12But in 2026, you know, the band's back together.
35:15They tried to minimize losses in the offseason as much as they could just because of their cap situation.
35:21You know, you lose ETN, you lose Lloyd. But they felt like they had replacements there.
35:26It's largely the same team coming back. And this is a 13 win team.
35:30And they didn't even really figure it out until week 11.
35:33So I can understand why Jags fans have high expectations for this year.
35:38I would, too. All right. Let's take a quick break and come back and talk about a team that I'm very glad
35:44I waited to talk about the Indianapolis Colts. If you've shopped online, chances are you've bought from a business powered by Shopify.
35:51You know that purple shop pay button you see at checkout?
35:55The one that makes buying so incredibly easy? That's Shopify.
35:58And there's a reason so many businesses sell with it.
36:01Because Shopify makes it incredibly easy to start and run your business.
36:05Shopify is the commerce platform behind 10% of all e-commerce in the U.S.
36:09From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started.
36:13Shopify gives you a leg up with hundreds of beautiful, ready-to-go templates to express your brand style and forget about the code.
36:20Tackle all those important tasks in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics and more.
36:25Spread your brand's word with built-in marketing and email tools to find and keep new customers.
36:30And did I mention that iconic purple shop pay button that's used by millions of businesses around the world?
36:36It's why Shopify has the best converting checkout on the planet.
36:39Your customers already love it. If you want to see less carts being abandoned, it's time for you to head over to Shopify.
36:46Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com slash network.
36:51Go to shopify.com slash network. Shopify.com slash network. Before the season even kicks off, everyone's making predictions.
36:57Who wins the division? Who makes the playoffs? Who's lifting the trophy at season's end?
37:01On CallShe, America's number one prediction market platform, you can trade those predictions in a live market.
37:07Will Pittsburgh qualify for the playoffs this season? Right now, they're trading at 40%, meaning a $100 trade would pay out over
37:14$250 if they clinch a playoff spot. On CallShe, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house.
37:20And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position.
37:25Trade the draft pick, the game, and more on CallShe.
37:28Download the CallShe app and use code TRADE25 to get up to $500 in bonus credits when you trade $25.
37:34K-A-L-S-H-I. CallShe. Trade on anything. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
37:38Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
37:42CallShe products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned.
37:48For more information, see CallShe.com slash regulatory. I like things my way.
37:52My coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo pre-filled syringe, which contains F-Gartigamide alpha and hyaluronidase QVFC.
38:00It's injected under your skin subcutaneously. It means I can inject in my space on my time.
38:06It's my treatment, my way. Visit VivgardMyWay.com. That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com.
38:09And talk to your doctor about Vivgard Hytrulo. Brought to you by Argenics.
38:13All right, we're back. It's time to talk about the Colts.
38:16And, Brett, I am so glad we are doing this now and not like four weeks ago because we got to start
38:23with the big elephant in the room. Well, there's kind of two because of Alec Pierce.
38:28We'll get to that in a second. But let's start with Daniel Jones.
38:32Listen, I have said this all offseason. I have been – the notion that Daniel Jones is going to come back week
38:39one, everything's fine, make a recover from his Achilles that is unprecedented, I was intensely skeptical.
38:44I mean, how could you not be? Every other – not just quarterback, but like really NFL player who's had this type
38:51of injury has a longer timeline or takes time to look comfortable.
38:55So I was skeptical of the contract. I was skeptical of his return.
38:59Everyone who's in Indianapolis says he looks fine. And it's not just like Colts people, right?
39:04Like so Solak was just there. First thing he told me, he was like, he looks fine.
39:09I was like, what? So I – I saw his report from camp and I was like, really?
39:15But he's not the only one, dude. I've been asking around.
39:18I'm like, is this for real? Like I was asking like, Stephen, are they putting him under center?
39:24Is he booting out? Like I want to know, right?
39:27And while I reserve the right like to wait until the season starts or really the season, week one against Baltimore, like
39:34I want to see this before I'm really comfortable saying he's going to be like he was last year.
39:40It does seem like he's going to give them functional quarterback play.
39:44So I think we have to start there, right?
39:47Like is that shocking to you? Are you a believer?
39:50Or do you fear that while he might look fine in August, the significance of his athleticism to his game is something
39:57to monitor and that he's going to be a different guy from who he was last season?
40:02I mean, it's shocking in the sense that, you know, Achilles injuries used to be like career threatening.
40:08And now it's a nine month, you know, jaunt through PT.
40:11But then you also consider, OK, his father-in-law is Dr.
40:14Neil Elitrash. He's one of the premier doctors. Do you like the like upgraded package that other guys don't?
40:20Like I'm so curious about that. Just shoving Kevlar into his leg.
40:24I don't know. What's happening? It's crazy. It's got to help, right?
40:28To have that kind of guy in your family text group where you'd be like, hey, what should I do about this?
40:35It feels sore. Like I just I've never seen a recovery like this other than like maybe 2012 Adrian Peterson when he came back from that.
40:43Yeah. Yeah. It's just unreal. All right. Well, so I do think, though, the importance of athleticism to his game does matter, right?
40:50Because let's talk about the Colts offense last year.
40:53Like, obviously, you want it to look like it did weeks one through eight.
40:57Notice I said weeks one through eight because while he continued playing weeks nine through 14, the wheels kind of came off the bus a little bit.
41:06Wheels one through eight. He's top three in every single quarterback metric.
41:10EPA per drop back first. Second in QBR. First in success rate.
41:13Third in pressure to sack rate. Weeks nine through 14.
41:16So the Steelers game to the Jags game. 2016 in paper drop back.
41:2024th in QBR. 22nd in success rate. And most notably, 28th in pressure to sack rate.
41:26That, to me, was the thing that struck me as the most unsustainable was that he was just like unsackable the first eight weeks of the season.
41:34And that's probably the one thing that I'm a little bit concerned about and that I want to see.
41:40Like, again, it's one thing for him to move in the open field and to throw from inside the pocket.
41:46But does he have the athleticism to avoid sacks the way he did those first eight weeks of the season?
41:52That's something I want to see. I'll give you some context to that.
41:57Right? So in the first, again, 10 to 11 weeks of the season, before his broken leg, which then led to the Achilles.
42:04People forget, like, he also broke his leg last year.
42:07He had multiple injuries. Yeah. It is extremely tough, which, you know, growing up in the Giants, you kind of have to be.
42:14This offense operated differently. And that's what led to a lot of the lack of sacks that you were talking about.
42:21First down was their go-get-an-explosive down. They were by far the most aggressive team on first down in the league.
42:27They were 31st in run rate. You compare that to the Texans we just talked about.
42:32They were, what, second in run rate? And 34...
42:35The Texans were so good at it. Oh, yeah.
42:38Yeah. It was going great for them. But specifically with those Colts first downs, almost 35% of their first downs were converted into another first down.
42:46Because that's when they were really throwing the ball and getting explosives.
42:50But they weren't doing it with, like, low percentage shots down the boundary to Alec Pierce.
42:55This was not an Eagles-type situation of, like, oh, we're going to trust A.J.
42:59Brown to go win. No. This was, like, we're throwing crossing routes.
43:03We're throwing digs. We're calling three-level flood concepts and trusting him to, like, layer the ball in between the safety and the
43:10corner when they're watching you throw it. And you're still going to make that throw to the sideline from the far hat.
43:17Like, he was doing it. And the fact that they were that successful meant that they really didn't need Jonathan Taylor to be the engine.
43:24Second down was the Jonathan Taylor down, right? Like, if they missed on first down, second down was their, okay, let's get back on track.
43:32And then third down, the reason why he didn't take many sacks on third down is because typically Jonathan Taylor could get you five yards.
43:40You get back to third and five. And they weren't really stretching the field.
43:45Again, they saved that for first down. It was hitches.
43:48It was slants. It was screens. Like, they got it with yards after the catch and quick throws.
43:53And then once they moved the chains, all right, we're going deep again.
43:57So it was kind of an inverted philosophy from a lot of, like, the traditional run-run-pass type teams that we've seen.
44:04And that's why they were so good at it.
44:07But then as the season went on and teams picked up on their run-pass rates and, you know, the type of concepts
44:14and formations they like to use on first down, teams were like, all right, we know what you're doing.
44:20Let's make you play real football here. And things started to slow down.
44:24Plus, he broke his leg. Then he tore his Achilles.
44:27It is a whole thing. But, you know, the first half of the season, when they were breaking every kind of offensive
44:34record, it's because they were really catching teams off guard with how aggressive they were on first down.
44:39They had a 56% play action rate on first down.
44:43Eventually, teams realized, like, oh, that's fake. Wait a second.
44:46They're not actually going to do it. Which is, by the way, easily first in the NFL.
44:51Like, that's an insane number. And the first down is when, you know, most teams use play action.
44:57I think the NFL average is, like, 40%. So it's always higher.
45:00But 56% is very high. So it's really well said to you to point out why guys were, like, really open and how explosive and effective they were.
45:09And I do – I'm interested from the perspective of, like, Shane Steichen, like, what's next?
45:14You know, because I thought he had a phenomenal season, obviously, with Jones.
45:18I think he's a really good play caller generally, and he's done a good job of, like, trying to find different tweaks
45:25to suit the strengths of his different quarterbacks. But this is a big year for him.
45:30Like, okay, you have Daniel Jones. Last year, things started to tail off a little bit.
45:35And as you described so well, what's next for you?
45:38If Jones shows any limitations, if he does show some discomfort moving, maybe he's not as comfortable under center, can you tweak the offense?
45:46Can you, you know, hit him with, like, flash play action?
45:49Is the RP – he's a very good RPO designer.
45:53Like, what's your RPO game like? Can we speak more pistol, like with Kirk Cousins when he was coming off the Achilles in Atlanta, right?
46:00It's a big one for him. I don't know.
46:03And then I think what's tricky is this receiving group is pretty dubious at the moment.
46:08So they let Pittman – they traded Pittman, and they decided to bet on Alec Pierce, which – it's funny.
46:15It is really similar. I was thinking about it because I'm doing them next week to – I actually think it's pretty
46:21– Pierce is maybe an upgraded version, but it is kind of similar to the Packers letting Romeo Dobbs walk and exciting
46:28Christian Watson, like the kind of – like thinking, like, this is a skill set we can replicate more than this one.
46:35I feel like that's what Indianapolis did. And Alec Pierce is awesome.
46:39Alec Pierce is not just a burner. He is big.
46:42He makes difficult catches. I think he has more levels to his game to be unlocked.
46:47Alec Pierce is not practicing. He's hurt. And that's concerning to me, Brett.
46:51I know they're saying he's probably going to be back week one.
46:55It is so wild to me that, like, this whole offseason I've been like, Daniel Jones, when's he going to play?
47:02Is he okay? It's almost like Alec Pierce kind of slipped under the injury radar a bit with a little cleanup surgery
47:08while everyone was focused on Daniel Jones. And now it's August.
47:12And I'm a little nervous about that. Am I wrong?
47:15Like, does that – because the rest of this receiving group, that Alec Pierce.
47:19I mean, they got Laquan Treadwell. They'll be fine.
47:22Laquan Treadwell? Still going. I did not know that.
47:25Yeah. It's Josh Downs, Ashton Doolin, Westbrook Kine. Tyler Warren, very good rookie tight end last year.
47:30Mowally Cox. Alex – I don't know. They definitely need Alec Pierce because Alec Pierce has gravity.
47:36That's the thing. Yeah. Is Pittman never had the gravity that Alec Pierce does?
47:40Even if Alec Pierce misses time, you know, there's the old saying that the best part of it about being at 90% is, you know, you're halfway there.
47:49And they feel like Alec Pierce gets them to 100%, whereas, you know, even if they got 17 games out of Pittman,
47:56they would never get above 90, whereas Alec Pierce can break that ceiling.
48:00And you have to be able to break that ceiling in order to go on a playoff run.
48:06Like, you can't – Yeah. You can't expect to get past the division round if you don't have somebody that can break
48:12the game like him, that has the gravitational pull like him, that opens up everything else for Tyler Warren and JT and, you know, Josh Downs.
48:21Like, you just – you can't do it. You just can't.
48:24It really is similar to Watson now that I think about it because, like, for the Packers, if they can just have
48:31Watson and Kraft on the field at the same time, they're so complimentary because of the gravity that Watson creates.
48:37Kraft gets you yards after the catch. He can run the football.
48:41Literally the same. Indianapolis, right? If you have Alec Pierce, defenses have to respect him.
48:46Yards after the catch opportunities for Warren and Downs and Taylor as a pass catcher.
48:50So, it all works if Alec Pierce is out there.
48:54And he may be fine. I just – I really wish – you know, I'd like to see him out there to
49:01feel good about his – this offense as a whole.
49:04The line, they did lose Brayden Smith, placing him with Jalen Travis.
49:07Otherwise – Freak of nature athlete, by the way.
49:10Jalen Travis. Are you – I was about to ask you.
49:14Hi on him. I know you're a draft guy.
49:17Oh, he's one of these, like, 10.0 RAS types.
49:19Like, absolute freak of nature. And they have a farm system going there with Colts offensive line.
49:25But, like, once upon a time, Bernhard Reiman was another one of these, like, okay, high upside athletes that we're going to take on day two.
49:33Jalen Travis was a day three pick, early day three, but he could have gone on day two.
49:38It's out of Iowa State. And, you know, you're looking at Gonsalves.
49:42You're looking at Bordellini. Obviously, Quentin Nelson. So, like, it's just athletes, athletes, athletes.
49:47So, they have a really, really good farm system there when it comes to offensive line development.
49:52And, at this point, I just kind of give them the benefit of the doubt.
49:57Yeah. I mean, Bernard Reiman was another one. People were really skeptical of him.
50:01I remember that draft. People were like, really? And he's been awesome.
50:05Bordellini was great last year. I remember talking about him with Jason Kelsey in the Monday Night Football truck.
50:11And he was so impressed by him. Left side you feel really good about, for sure.
50:16Right side, a little bit more questionable. This defense was pretty average last year.
50:20Like, no matter how you slice it, they were basically average.
50:24Some changes. Youth. Looks like the rookies are playing, are starting.
50:27C.J. Allen at linebacker. Zyra Franklin out. A.J. Halsey.
50:30Box safety next to Cam Bynum. Otherwise, it's largely the same.
50:33Obviously, you've got Sauce Gardner returning from injury. Oh, Kenny Moore's gone.
50:37So, I think Wally's going to play nickel for them.
50:40Yeah. I know. I think where I land is like, I just, I have a hard time figuring out, seeing them rise into the top 10.
50:48But I also, conversely, have a hard time seeing them.
50:52I don't think they're a bottom unit. I just think they're kind of going to end up in the middle again.
50:58Stylistically speaking, it's a very man-heavy defense. Right? They were eighth in man covers last year.
51:03And they might have been higher if Sauce played more than four games for them.
51:08It's actually kind of tragic last year. It's for a lot of trade.
51:12Yeah. It's like, let's play more man coverage. Let's do more crazy blisses.
51:16But as far as like man cover corner duos, how many would you take before Sauce and Charverius Ward?
51:22Maybe two? Maybe? Christian Sauce. Sorry, you weren't asking me.
51:25I mean, no, it's a real question. No, no, no.
51:28Yeah, yeah. Ward, if he can, he had a difficult season.
51:32He's had, I believe, concussions too, in addition to off the field.
51:36I mean, difficult circumstances for him. Yeah. Like if they're healthy, you feel good about it.
51:41I would feel better about it if I thought they got more pressure.
51:45Well, that's the crux of it, right? Yeah, that's the crux of it.
51:49And that's a good way to position this. Like what does it take for this defense to go from 15th to 10?
51:56I'll tell you right now, it's Laiutu Latu making the leap.
51:59He's like just outside. He's just been outside. If Brett, if you told me, if I tell you Laiutu Latu becomes a
52:0614 sack guy, then I'm like, all right, cool.
52:09This is a top 10 defense. Maybe even, and they might not even be 10, right?
52:14They might be higher than that. Because if you're looking at this pass rush last year, if you're looking at true four
52:21man rushes, like not a simulated pressure, like true drop back passes with a four man rush, go hunt.
52:27They were 21st in pressure rate on those. If you added a single rusher to that and made it a five man pressure, right?
52:34So call it a fire zone, call it a man, whatever you want to call it.
52:39Five rushers or more, they were 16th. So they became average only when they weren't just relying on their front four.
52:46That cannot continue. For a team that likes to be as man heavy as they are, like their ideal style here is
52:53we're going to play cover one whenever we want to.
52:56If we want to get them into a long down and distance, we know Lou and Arumbo likes to call like, you
53:03know, different variations of cover two and trick quarterbacks to making really risky throws into tight windows and, you know, get your
53:10hands on the ball, all that kind of stuff.
53:12But they can't, they can't play that much man coverage if they have to always send a fifth guy to help out the pass rush.
53:20And on top of that, I also kind of worry about their ability to do man coverage outside of those two corners
53:27because Akeem Davis Gaither, not a great coverage linebacker.
53:30CJ Allen, they drafted him in the second round.
53:33But quite frankly, I see some movement. What's the word?
53:36Restrictions? I don't think he's like a super fluid athlete in space.
53:40And so I don't know. Did not. I there's things that I really like about his game.
53:45So I, I think he can become a NFL starter for sure, like a quality starter, but he's not rangy.
53:51He, he is not. You're flying sideline to God had less.
53:55He's. I, I found him on tape to be very intelligent, but he didn't play super fast is how I would put it.
54:02So him versus facial toot in space. Who's winning?
54:05Yeah. I have hesitation there. I do like halcy a lot.
54:08I bet he's a fourth, fourth round. Like, but he is a fun player.
54:13But you know, the issue is if you're playing man coverage, everybody's in man.
54:17It's not just your corners. And so it's like, okay, cool.
54:21You have sauce. You have various. I'm going to pick on everybody else.
54:25Yeah. I mean, I don't know if we're else.
54:27Even the corners. Questionable. I don't know if they're healthy.
54:31Yeah. If they're healthy. Yeah. I, and then it's right.
54:34I mean, Buckner is still great, but another year and getting older.
54:38Coming off a back injury. Yeah. And again, opposite lot to who's getting that for the quarterback, man.
54:43They didn't get anything from Twimalu. They brought Arden key.
54:46Who's like always consistently decent, but. I just have trouble seeing how this unit makes sleep.
54:51So. There's a way for this to be excellent, but I'll, I'll ask a real question to you.
54:57If the Colts hit every single green light that we talked about, if the Jags hit every single green light that we
55:04talked about, if the Texans hit every single green light, which one do you actually feel best about?
55:10The Texans. Or the Jags. I'll decide between them at the end.
55:13But it's one of those two teams. Yeah. I mean, if you call me the Colts were the same defense they were
55:20or offense they were through the first eight weeks of the season, I'll say the Colts.
55:25But I just don't. Like that's so insane. Yeah.
55:28The reasons you laid out the first down numbers, the numbers under pressure.
55:32It was just so, doesn't feel sustainable. Life insurance is one of those things that's easy to put off because it doesn't feel urgent today.
55:40But it's not just another financial box to check.
55:43It's about having a plan in place. So if life throws something unexpected at your family, they're not left dealing with the financial side without support.
55:51Ethos makes getting life insurance fast and easy. It's 100% online so you can get a quote in seconds, apply in minutes, and get same-day coverage.
55:59There's no medical exam. You just answer a few simple health questions online.
56:03You can get up to $3 million in coverage.
56:06And some policies start as low as $30 a month.
56:09Ethos has also earned strong customer feedback with a 4.8 out of 5-star rating on Trustpilot based on more than 4,000 reviews.
56:16Take 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos.
56:20Get your free quote at ethos.com slash sports. That's E-T-H-O-S dot com slash sports.
56:24Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of June 1, 2025.
56:29Shohei Otani's interpreter was fired today. Ipe Mitsuhara ran up gambling debts to a Southern California bookmaking operation.
56:34The inside story of the biggest scandal in modern baseball.
56:37He was absolutely bananas, the amount of bets he was making.
56:41I've never seen him like it. From 30 for 30 podcasts, this is The Betrayal of Shohei Otani.
56:46Presented by Gusto. New episodes available now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
56:51Need parts fast? O'Reilly Auto Parts has fast. Need them now?
56:54We've got now. No matter what you need, we have thousands of professional parts people doing their part to make sure you have it.
57:02We're O'Reilly Fast. Just one part that makes O'Reilly stand apart.
57:05The professional parts people. O'Reilly Auto Parts. All right, let's wrap with the Titans.
57:09This was fun to revisit because I had to go back and watch Cam Ward, right?
57:14Mm-hmm. I watched three games this weekend. The Seahawks game.
57:18I posted. I felt bad because I ended up posting clips of Leonard Williams just demolishing Peter Skronsky.
57:23Who was, by the way, great. He was their best one.
57:27Clearly. But there's a clip. I posted it where Leonard hits him with the arm over.
57:32And it looks like the meme, like, I fell to my knees in a Walmart.
57:36That's what Peter Skronsky looks like in this clip.
57:39He's praying in a Walmart. Um, anyways, but the thing I want to bring that up to say, uh, Cam Ward was awesome in that game.
57:47Uh, despite facing, you know, the first or second best defense in the NFL, making plays, uh, like a really impressive performance to me.
57:55Uh, Kansas City, he was really impressive. San Francisco, a little bit less so.
57:59My general notes to him on him after we watching are the arm talent is obvious.
58:04He can throw from odd platforms. He can zip it into tight windows.
58:08He can sidearm it. He's sometimes ill-advised throws across his body.
58:12He can do it all. He is tough. He will hang in there versus pressure.
58:17Um, however, he misses some open opportunities. He, whether it's not seeing them or hunting for big plays, a lot of the
58:23Titans offensive struggles are on the receiving group in the scheme, which we will get to.
58:28But a lot of them were on Cam Ward as well.
58:32There are moments where he misses checkdowns, where he backs up against pressure versus pressure.
58:37Instead of stepping up in the pocket, doesn't hit guys on time.
58:40Rookie stuff. The conclusion I came to generally was watching him.
58:44And there's no stats we can get into that that are good.
58:48It felt like watching Caleb Williams his first year.
58:50Like that's not, I'm not saying they're the same quarterback, but I had the same.
58:55Those were a lot of similar notes to what I would have had about Caleb.
59:00Caleb got the Ben Jocelyn glow up. Do we think Cam Ward's getting a similar glow up or at least anything close to it?
59:07And so I realized I just hit you two things, which is what do you think of Ward and what do you think of this situation?
59:16Start with Ward and then we'll get to this year's situation.
59:19I mean, you brought up Caleb and I, it's such an interesting comp because he had the second most just flat out misses, right?
59:27Off target incompletions. He had the second most in the league last year at 81.
59:31Caleb was the only one who quote unquote beat that, which is not a good thing you want to beat somebody in.
59:38But 51 of those 81 off target incompletions were without pressure, right?
59:42He just flat out had accuracy issues. And then you add in 35 pass breakups on top of that that were due to kind of shaky ball placement.
59:51You have 116 pass attempts that could have been complete that weren't complete.
59:55How do you weigh that against the absolutely seismic moments of brilliance, which we saw arguably every single week?
60:01Like you see it with him. You know, there's some rookie quarterbacks where it's like, okay, yeah, there's bad numbers, but then you also don't see the highs.
60:09You see the highs with Cam Ward. It makes you believe.
60:13Like Brian Dable wouldn't have gone there if he didn't believe in the kid.
60:17Can I say one thing? I really, yeah, sorry.
60:20Don't know if you keep going. I'll tell you what you triggered a thought, but keep going.
60:26And so, you know, we talk about the Ben Johnson glow up.
60:29Is that possible for Cam Ward? I do because I believe in Brian Dable as a coach.
60:35I've seen him coach his ass off before, and I don't think he would have gone there if he didn't believe he
60:42could get the most out of him. You know, the offensive line, I still have major questions about tackle, but, you know,
60:48they were 19th in pressure rate allowed last year.
60:51It's not like they were the worst offensive line.
60:54They just had Dan Moore at left tackle, which wasn't great, but like, okay, we can fix that.
61:00We bring in new receivers. Ideally, the defense will be better.
61:03There's a lot of new blood there. Like, I can see a world where this is a stepping stone season where you
61:10just cut down on those misses a little bit and you substitute them with those moments of brilliance.
61:16Just a 5% swing in both directions. It's like Caleb.
61:19Yes, just like Caleb. Except, you know, there was such a huge glow up because of all the turnover there.
61:25Ben Johnson, and I know. The thing I wanted to say about Cam Moore, you triggered another thought in me that I
61:32felt watching him, particularly, you know, just watching those later games.
61:35Holy mental toughness, dude. I mean, some of the missed drops and Titans receiver, some of the stuff they were doing, I
61:42would have done war crimes back there. Like, I'm just saying.
61:46But like, I never once saw this dude blaming people.
61:49He could have. He could have. He actually got better as the season went along.
61:54He really did. I mean, those two performances I mentioned later in the season, you know, still took too many sacks, but
62:01you saw him cut down on it a little bit.
62:04And he would even get better in games. Like, there was a, I think it was a San Francisco game.
62:10I was watching where, like, he missed an out.
62:13He didn't throw it on time. Two plays later, he hits it.
62:17And I'm watching that thinking, like, this is, like, you can see him learning as these games are progressing, as the season is progressing.
62:24So, I would be optimistic based on that. I think there's one thing I've learned about covering quarterbacks, or one thing that
62:31I have learned is you want to bet on guys who consistently get better.
62:35Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or whatever. So, I thought that was incredibly impressive from him because the circumstances sure as hell didn't get better around him.
62:44There's parallel storylines that we're going to track this season, which is how much better is Cam Ward under Brian Dable?
62:50And then the other side of the Brian Dable coin is Jackson Dart, who now has Brian Callahan.
62:56And so, we're going to see the direct impact of this.
62:59It's my Brian's! Exactly. Who'd you rather have? I'd rather have Dable.
63:03I'd rather have Dable, too, especially because Callahan's the pass game coordinator.
63:07The offensive coordinator is Matt Nagy. And then the other, you know, two members that are going to be in charge with
63:14development of Jackson Dart are Greg Roman and John Harbaugh.
63:17Do you feel good about that Giants staff? I don't, you know, compared to the Titans staff.
63:22Yeah. The... Listen. Dable's not been perfect. And I don't think he's like a quarterback whisperer, per se, because of the Josh Allen.
63:29But he has... One thing I like about him...
63:32I think I said this when they made the hire.
63:35Not only has he actually found ways to improve quarterback play at his various thoughts, bots, he has called very different offenses
63:42for different quarterbacks and found things that they're good at.
63:45Now, maybe is that a little bit too much smash quarterback run?
63:49Perhaps. Perhaps. Although I will say, there were a lot of times watching Cam Ward where I was like, run, run!
63:56And he just wouldn't? Yeah, he was fourth in pressure dropbacks, but only 15th in scrambles.
64:01It's like, buddy, you could have run a lot more than you did.
64:05You left yards on the field. And he's an athlete.
64:08I'm like, it felt like he was trying too hard to like, I'm playing quarterback, I'm going to throw it in the field.
64:15But yeah, I do think Dable... And this is the most important thing.
64:19They really did add, you know, some difference makers at receiver.
64:23I can quibble with their build and the fact that they just brought in all giants and jets and we'll get to the defense and Salah and stuff.
64:32But like, Wana Robinson is an innings eater, as we call it.
64:35I mean, that dude will catch, you know, 100 passes, like a million passes.
64:40All for five yards apiece, yep. Hey, and Carnell Tate solves a lot of their problems.
64:45Gravity, explosive, catching the football really well, big plays downfield.
64:48And then suddenly it's like, okay, cool, we'll see if we get something out of Ridley.
64:53There's no longer pressure on A.U. Manor and Chimera Dike to be like legit dudes.
64:58So, I do feel a lot better about it.
65:00I mean, the receiving group was so bad last year.
65:04Hold on, I pulled a stat. Okay, I don't even know how this is possible.
65:08NGS has this thing called end zone catch rate.
65:11Basically, it's what it sounds like. The average is 37%.
65:14Do you know what the Titans catch rate was in the end zone?
65:18Judging by the cutups I've watched of Cam, something under 20.
65:2214%. How is that possible? They also have a stat catch rate over expected, which is basically really trying to, or yes, isolate like the receiver.
65:30Like, okay, is the ball on target? Where's the defender?
65:33Whatever. Dead last, negative 12%. That means Titans receivers caught nearly 13% fewer passes than they should have.
65:39Um, Cam Ward was actually ninth in precision pass rate on 20 yard plus passes.
65:43You wouldn't know it from the results. I'm sorry.
65:46Carmel Tate catches the ball. That's why they drafted him.
65:49Like, I don't think he's actually a great separator.
65:52Uh, and I, I, I didn't have him as like the fourth, anything close to the fourth best player in this class.
65:59He catches the ball. I'll give him that. He catches the ball.
66:03And, and by God, that's what they needed. And even though I don't think he's a great separator against man coverage, when
66:10the average man coverage you're going to face throughout an NFL season is like 25%, you need somebody who's going to be
66:17in the right place at the right time against zone coverage and just catch the ball.
66:22Like, I felt like Titans receivers just dipping their hands in Vaseline last year.
66:26Like at least he's going to do his job.
66:29I had no problem. I'm like, you know what?
66:32If you're going to pay a premium for a guy who catches the ball so that your young quarterback has some help, it's fine.
66:39I, I, I, I know folks are divided on him.
66:42Can he be a one? Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I, I, especially if you're watching this Titans office back, I'm like, please, thank you.
66:50Can we just start with getting a real two?
66:53Just, yeah. Um, but no, I do think the con the combination of him and Robinson, it makes sense, right?
66:59Like from a spatial perspective, I do worry about the offensive line.
67:03You alluded to this. It's never good when you see Volson's name.
67:07I thought they were going to bring back Zyler.
67:09Apparently that's not happening. So Austin Schlottman at center.
67:12Sure. Not great. Still not. Schlottman knows the system, right?
67:15That's why Brian did want him. Right. So he can call protections.
67:19Um, Pat Coogan is like a 40 year old in a 20 somethings body.
67:23Like I can't believe he doesn't have like three kids and a mortgage and a union job.
67:29Like he's, I talked to him at the combine.
67:32I was like, you're 20 something. It's, it's unreal.
67:34He's going to play forever, whether it's at center or a guard.
67:38Um, he's just, he's a pros pro already. I actually had him walk me through Indiana's, uh, prep schedule for a game.
67:45And like, he had it in his head in like 30 minute increments for an entire week laid out.
67:51Like he's going to be fine. Fingers crossed. Run game was not great last year.
67:56A lot of that was because of the offensive line.
67:59You know how bad the Niners run defense was.
68:02They made the Titans run game looked competent. That was one to take.
68:06I was watching them like, geez, they're ripping Pollard.
68:09They were just like, this is, oh my God, we're ripping off seven yard runs against this team.
68:14Um, anyways, yeah. So look, I, I am not like, obviously you need to see a leap from Ward, but I do
68:21think he deserves a lot of grace for how bad the circumstances were.
68:25And, you know, I think they legitimately have improved.
68:28Um, I also think this defense could be better.
68:31Uh, you know, I, I, a lot of it starts with Robert Sala, who has turned around defenses every time, man.
68:38Like he did it in San Francisco. He did, I mean, the greatest compliment I can give Robert Sala is, did you
68:44watch the Jets defense after he was fired? Oh, they were like terrible.
68:49That was. There's, there's decline and then there's falling off a cliff.
68:52Like that was pretty remarkable how much worse they got after he left.
68:56One of my favorite stats, uh, is like the post Quinn and Williams trade too, about how, uh, the Cowboys run defense,
69:03uh, success rate allowed went from like bottom three to top three.
69:07And the Jets went from top three to bottom three.
69:10Like Quinn and Quinn and was obviously amazing for the Jets, but even his impact was nothing compared to Rob Sala.
69:17Like I think they fired him what week four of that year and they were two and two and then immediately fell off a cliff once he left.
69:26And then he started going to consult for, I think, uh, green Bay and their defense got better once he got there.
69:32And then San Francisco, obviously massive injuries, but at least I know I just crapped all over them, but that wasn't about Robert Sala.
69:40Um, okay. So he joins the Titans defense that was statistically very bad last year, but very un, you know, traded away
69:47players had some injuries and they did the friends of Robert Sala and Brian Dable program as well on this side of the ball.
69:54Uh, they brought in the perpetually underrated Jonathan Franklin Myers to go up next to the perpetual superstar, Jeff Simmons, Jeff Simmons
70:01stats, by the way, first and pass rush win 64 pressures.
70:05He was, he was, so he was first and pass rush win.
70:09No other Titans defensive tackle ranked inside the top 50.
70:12Franklin Myers was 25th. So that's going to be nice.
70:15Uh, they added Jermaine Johnson. Uh, they drafted Keldrick Falk of Solomon Thomas, another former friend.
70:20Uh, you can talk about Falk in a second.
70:23I'm curious to hear your thoughts on him. Linebacker, uh, Cedric Gray solid against the run.
70:28Cody Barton. They drafted Anthony Hill, Jr. Cornerback completely remade the room part because they sent everyone away.
70:33So now you have a former friend Cordell Flott and then from the Saints, Alante Taylor.
70:38Uh, it looks like at safety, Kevin Winston, Jr.
70:41Kelvin Winston, Jr. is going to start next to a money hooker.
70:45Uh, let's start the pass rush. Cause this was, you know, a hot topic was like, should they draft Darval Reish?
70:52Should they draft one like Ruben Mayne Jr.? Oh no, we're going to help our young quarterback.
70:57Cool. Then we're going to wait. We're going to take Keldrick Falk.
71:01Do you feel like they've done enough to make this front competent?
71:04And do you think like Robert Sala, as many have been saying, could get, I don't even know how you can get
71:11another level out of Jeff Simmons from last year, but like, could he get another level out of Jeff Simmons?
71:18It would be hard to, but you know, Sal is coming from a defense of the 49ers where again, he did what
71:24he could, he was down to like linebacker six there and their whole defensive line was banged up.
71:30But the Niners defensive tackle rotation was one of five teams in the NFL, the chargers, the Jags, the lions, the Bengals,
71:37the Niners that were all outproduced by Jeff Simmons himself when it comes to interior pass rush.
71:42It's a whole new planet that he's on this year.
71:45Having that kind of guy. Did he? He's, he's ridiculous.
71:49Like I'm, I know the Titans don't have any primetime games this year.
71:53Just flip on a Titans game during the season to watch Jeff Simmons.
71:57He's unbelievable. And Franklin Myers next is pretty exciting too.
72:00Like getting to play next to like a real defensive lineman.
72:03Plus Jermaine Johnson and you know, Keldrick Falk. I actually liked Keldrick Falk a lot of the prospect.
72:09A lot of people were down on him because they, you know, they saw, um, you know, the pass rush win rate and everything like that.
72:17And it was, it was low production, uh, as far as pass rush goes, but like you see the talent, he's a great run stopper.
72:25He was good in the room at Auburn and they believe in their ability to develop him.
72:30Very similar to like a young Trayvon Walker with Jacksonville had a lot of similar concerns, even though he was even more
72:37of an athlete, uh, than folk was folks, a great athlete, but you're trusting in this guy, enormous, absolutely gigantic.
72:44But these are coaches that trust themselves to get the best out of somebody because they, they think that, okay, we're getting a 21 year old here.
72:52Is this the best he's ever going to be?
72:55Probably not, but we think we can get him to as close as, as the best as we can.
73:01Uh, and his best by the way, is probably a pro bowl password.
73:05Like, it's like Rashawn Gary coming out of Michigan, Rashawn Gary coming out of Michigan.
73:10Didn't really know what he was doing either, but a few years later, he was awesome.
73:15I look at this build and I think, okay, defensive tackle is the strength and you added to that, but that's a
73:21successful model in today's NFL where your tackles are your superstars and you just have depth and competent pass rushers.
73:28And you don't necessarily have, you know, like a miles, like obviously not as a mascara, but like a top 10 edge rusher.
73:35That's fine. If you have a, like two really, one amazing and one really good defensive tackle, that's enough.
73:41Like we see a lot of defenses Seattle where that's the build and it works.
73:46Um, but it has a city for a long time.
73:49Yeah. There's a lot of examples. You do need competent play on the backend.
73:53I think for that to work as well. And one thing that's interesting though, now that I think about it is like,
74:00this was like Jeff's like, are they going to play like a lot of light boxes because Jeff Simmons, like, are they,
74:07is he actually going to be able to get after it?
74:10Are they going to rotate him? I don't know.
74:13Some questions. But anyways, the secondary, I think took a big step towards competence.
74:18Flott and Taylor are NFL players. Um, I don't think either are like, yeah, like they're, I, you know, I, Taylor was, was quite good last year.
74:26Flott, you know, I, I there, but at minimum, I think you can get average cornerback play out of those two.
74:33Last year it was Daryl Baker, Jr., Jalen Armour Davis and Marcus Harris.
74:37What percentage of the audience at home knows who those people are?
74:41Is it single digits? Cause I, I would say so.
74:44And they, their play didn't warrant anybody really paying attention to the Titans secondary last year.
74:49They were terrible. They could not hold up in man coverage whatsoever.
74:52They played so much zone because they couldn't hold up in man coverage.
74:57And now they actually have real corners that gives them options that they can actually play man here.
75:02And, you know, as much as Sala loves quarters and quarter, quarter half and all that kind of stuff, even within Sala's
75:09zone coverage structures, there's usually one guy that has to play man on the backside.
75:14You know, so they can, you know, push all of their zone strength over to the other side.
75:19You have to have at least one guy that can do the man coverage duty within a zone coverage structure.
75:26They didn't have anybody that could do that last year.
75:29They were objectively one of the five worst corner groups in the NFL.
75:33And they probably weren't the fifth worst. It was probably even lower than that.
75:37So the fact that they upgraded that much, both at corner and in terms of pass rush, it's possible this defense goes
75:44from as bad as they were to what, like 15th, somewhere around there.
75:48I think average is realistic. I think there's still a year away from like, they need, I think another edge rusher linebacker.
75:55Let's see what Hill junior bring. I liked him a lot.
75:59Um, but year one, we'll see how much he plays, what he brings.
76:03I think Kevin Winston, Jr. Nickel safety, you know, there's still holes, but they plugged a lot of them from last season.
76:10I think average is completely realistic. Is average realistic for the offense or is that?
76:14I think it's more likely the defense is average than the offense.
76:18Totally agree. If the offense can be 20th and the defense is 15th, this team can win six games and at least
76:25feel good about it going into a loaded 20, 27 draft.
76:29The goal of the season is not to win the division.
76:32The goal is to get development out of cam word.
76:35I'm not going to say to evaluate cam word because I think it's way too early.
76:40Just imagine this scenario. They win six games. They're picking like 11th.
76:44Four quarterbacks go in, in the first four picks.
76:47They're in range for Jeremiah Smith. Like they could trade up for Jeremiah Smith.
76:51Reunite. I don't know. There's the dolphins, dude. You have to hope that the dolphins prioritize literally anything else.
76:57I asked him to name two dolphins receivers. And then I, and then I was like, you know what?
77:03Actually, let me pivot. If you went to any city outside of Miami.
77:07And then I was like, you know what? I'm pivoting again in the city of Miami.
77:12Can you find people who know two dolphins receivers?
77:15Billy Gill just texted me. I only had two at the top of my head.
77:20And one of them was to do. Oh, well, yeah, it's, I think in some for the Tennessee Titans, there is improvement on the roster.
77:28I think just the goal for the season is just like, let's just get cam.
77:32Let's get the defense closer to average. And let's see if we can develop cam word a little bit in better circumstances.
77:39All right. The time has come to rank these teams.
77:42Okay. So I have gone back and forth in the top two.
77:46I really like the Jags, man. I probably really wants to pull the trigger on Jacksonville because I'm such a believer in the coaching staff right now.
77:54And you made a point like that might not be the same coaching staff next year, but this year it is.
78:01And they're really good. And, you know, we alluded to Kaylee being hamstrung, but I'm not as sold on him.
78:07However, Houston does have the most dominant group of anything in football, maybe right now.
78:12And I am. I did CJ. They did defend CJ Stroud.
78:16So I'm going to have both the Jags and the Texans making the playoffs, but I'm going to go Texans, Jags, Colts,
78:22Titans, but I want to do the Jags, but I'm close on.
78:26I'm so optimistic about them. Just the Texans defense is too good.
78:30I'll go Texans at the top as well. Really?
78:33Yeah. I'll go Jags. Don't do it. Yeah. Come on.
78:36I'll go Jags number two, but I feel like Jags and Colts are going to be literally tied for the same record.
78:43It's going to come down to tiebreakers. So I'll go Texans winning the division barely by like a game.
78:49And then I'll go Jags, Colts, Titans. Yeah. The real question to me is do three teams make the playoffs?
78:55I don't think so. I got Texans, Jags. It's going to be a real fight.
79:00It's going to be a real fight. AFC is so stacked though, right?
79:04Like if you've got New England, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati.
79:07Question. That's four already out of two. Am I the weird one, by the way?
79:11For thinking the Bengals win the North? I got the Ravens.
79:15Well, spoiler alert, because that's the last team I'm doing.
79:18Oh, I mean. There's a lot of Bengals optimism.
79:21A lot of Bengals optimism on the old television.
79:24Broncos, Chargers. Chiefs, maybe. They're back from the dead.
79:26Maybe. Yeah. AFC is very, because I've been doing these power rankings pods.
79:31The NFC is super top heavy. And the AFC has a very large upper middle class, is the conclusion I came to.
79:37But then you take all the AFC teams and you throw them against the best NFC teams.
79:43And you're like, do any of them beat the best NFC teams?
79:47It's tough. Yeah. Yeah. All right. That was a ton of fun.
79:50I love this division. I'm excited about it. Week one, Texans-Bills.
79:54Let's freaking go. I'm so excited for that game.
79:57Oh, my God. Is that Sunday night football? That makes one of us.
80:01I'm nervous. Dude. Dude. I, it is such a great strength on strength.
80:05No, it's Sunday morning. I don't know why I thought that was Sunday night.
80:09Uh, such a great strength on strength matchup. Iron sharpens iron.
80:13Let's see it. I can't wait. Uh, Brett Coleman does amazing jobs.
80:16As you said, he's covering, he's doing previews on every single team that are an hour, which is incredible.
80:22You didn't, you did an hour on the, the Arizona Cardinals, brother.
80:26We got the Ravens coming out today. It's an hour and 40 minutes long.
80:30Well, you said you got the Cincinnati. Now you're making me nervous.
80:34I think I'm too high in the Ravens defense.
80:37I just think mentor is the truth. He's incredible.
80:40And you know, if they get anything out of Trey Hendrickson, there's no way their pass rush could be worse than it was.
80:47Matt, a week is back. Come on. All right.
80:50Well, I'm doing the NFC North next week. Oh, also programming note.
80:54Uh, power hours are done, but I am sticking with two times a week.
80:58Monday before the preseason starts Monday, uh, Ben and I are going to do awards predictions, MVP coach of the year, all of that.
81:06So check that out on a Monday. Then I will return with the NFC North, uh, for our next division.
81:12We have two division previews next. So stay tuned for that.
81:15AFC North is last because of the quarterback competition.
81:18Uh, that's a preview of yours. I'd like to check out an hour on the Browns quarterback competition.
81:24Um, thank you for everybody for tuning in. Uh, my other show with David and junior viewer discretion is back.
81:30If you want to listen to us talk about, uh, the odyssey, I am power ranking.
81:35Cause I just love power ranking all of the performances in the odyssey that comes out later this week.
81:41Uh, we are also recapping the show furious. Have you checked that out yet?
81:45It's on Hulu. Oh, I saw the preview. It looked really interesting.
81:49Really good. Uh, and then later we'll be back with lanterns as well, which I'm really excited about.
81:55So check that out. Check out Brett's YouTube. Thank you as always to everyone at Omaha productions who makes this pod.
82:01Kirsten Specky, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster. We're going to wrap.
82:05Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today.
82:10Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
82:16I got them delivered free from 1-800-CONTACTS. Oh my gosh, they're so fast.
82:20And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order.
82:26Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-CONTACTS.com today to save on your first order.
82:301-800-CONTACTS.
More episodes from The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny
Power Hour 5! Ranking All 32 Teams with SVP
Aug 3, 2026
Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview
Jul 22, 2026
Jadarian Price is Right? Previewing the NFC West
Jul 15, 2026
