Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview

Mina Kimes expects Alec Ingold to see significant volume in the Chargers offense under McDaniel; she emphasizes 'get ready to see so much goddamn Alec Ingold' as part of McDaniel's strategy to add big bodies and leverage the run game.

Bo Nix showed improvement in year two and is expected to improve further in year three, though an ankle injury is a concern; he ranks first in screen attempts over the last two seasons, which pairs well with Waddle's skillset; he has underrated arm strength with the longest completed pass in the NFL the last two years at 58 air yards; however, he struggles throwing over the middle of the field (fifth-lowest percentage between the numbers, 31st in CPOE, 30th in first-down rate, 28th in on-target rate when throwing between the numbers), an area where Waddle excels and can help his development; he avoids negative plays well due to sack evasion and low interception rate, though some risk aversion is present.

Courtland Sutton remains a reliable X receiver for the Broncos, consistently beating top corners in the league and providing a strong red-zone option alongside Jalen Waddle.

Mina Kimes references Joku as a 'diet Andrews' in the Ravens tight end trio, implying Joku is a secondary option compared to the primary tight end role, similar to how Waller was positioned relative to Andrews in Baltimore.

Davis Webb is now the play caller for the Broncos, though there is uncertainty about how long he will retain the role before John Payton potentially takes over if things go south; the speaker is not particularly knowledgeable about Webb but believes the quality of the roster and offensive line make it difficult to fail.

Evan Ingram was expected to be the joker/utility player in the Broncos offense but did not produce; the speaker did multiple NFL Live segments trying to promote Ingram's potential, but he failed to deliver, partly due to Bo Nix's reluctance to throw over the middle of the field.

Mendoza expected to play approximately half the season, likely starting around week 8 after Kirk Cousins gets early opportunities; early schedule is brutal (Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets in weeks 5-8, followed by Niners, Seahawks, Broncos), limiting early-season fantasy relevance and creating uncertainty about when he'll actually take over the starting role.

Gabe Nabers is expected to benefit from the Chargers' run-game emphasis and McDaniel's scheme; the stretch runs created by McDaniel's motions and run-game design will open up opportunities for skill players.

In Mina Kimes' comparison of Ravens tight ends, Likely is positioned as playing the primary role in a trio with Kolar and Gadsden, suggesting he retains the lead tight end role despite the presence of other pass-catchers.

Tight end on Mina Kimes' dynasty team; holding onto a tiny prayer he could become something; the Chiefs did not add a blocking tight end in the draft despite the emphasis on improving the run game, which is a notable omission.

Jalen Waddle joining the Broncos is textbook elite receiver addition; he had 104 catches as a rookie and remained WR1 in EPA per target from 2022 through last season despite playing with Tyreek Hill; when Hill was on field, Waddle still ranked WR5 in yards per route; he excels in screen game and yards after catch, with second-best yards after catch on throws over 10 yards behind only Justin Jefferson; he is the perfect between-the-numbers player combining speed and strength to create yards after catch that makes him quarterback-friendly.

Jonah Coleman was drafted by the Broncos as a short-yardage and early-down back to spell Jakobi Dobbins; the speaker compares his role to the Pierre Thomas role, suggesting around 25% of snaps in a three-back committee with Dobbins and RJ Harvey.

Herbert showed top-10 quarterback performance when throwing under 2.5 seconds (7th in success rate, 10th in EPA), indicating the Chargers' offensive line issues—not Herbert's ability—were the primary problem last year. With new offensive line help and scheme adjustments including changed footwork in OTAs/mini camp, Herbert has significant upside in the Shanahan system, especially given the historical trend that Shanahan-tree play callers with legit quarterbacks throw for ~45 touchdowns per year (Burrow, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Baker Mayfield examples).

McDaniel's offensive scheme is designed to keep Herbert out of obvious drop-back situations and win on early downs through an emphasis on run game and pass protection improvements; the addition of a center and retention of good tackles supports this approach.

Keaton Mitchell is a priority target for McDaniel in the Chargers backfield; McDaniel hung a 'wanted poster' of Mitchell on the GM's wall with the message 'I need myself some Keaton Mitchell,' signaling his importance to the run-game scheme.

Borderline first-round fantasy pick with expected career highs across the board; Chiefs' interior offensive line is strong (Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, Josh Simmons ranked 11th in pressure rate allowed), and Kenneth Walker was fifth in yards per carry when not hit behind the line since 2022, compared to Chiefs running backs ranking 46th and 51st in that same metric; Andy Reid has a historic track record with elite running backs (LeSean McCoy averaged 1,800+ scrimmage yards in his final three seasons with Reid), and the Seahawks' offensive line was weaker than the Chiefs' on paper, suggesting Walker's efficiency could improve significantly.

Expected to receive a significant workload increase from his Seattle role; while he was part of a rotation with fresh legs in the second half of last season, the ascent had more to do with defensive adjustments (teams stacking the box early, then Jason Moore Jr. opening things up) than fresh legs alone; the Chiefs' situation is better positioned for a full-time role.

Mina Kimes compares the Ravens tight end trio of Kolar, Gadsden, and Joku to a budget version of the Andrews/Likely pairing, with Joku playing a diet Andrews role; this suggests reduced target share and role clarity for Andrews in a crowded Ravens tight end room.

Nate Adkins is used by the Broncos in heavier groupings as part of their run game, though the overall rushing attack has been disappointing relative to the quality of their offensive line.

Chiefs finished 6-11 but had a Pythagorean win expectation of 9.5 wins based on point differential (per FTN Football Almanac); they were 1-9 in one-score games and had only one miss on opponent field goals, both historically bad outcomes unlikely to repeat; positive regression case suggests Mahomes and the offense should improve significantly from last year's performance.

May see reduced pass attempts and increased under-center usage with Kenneth Walker's arrival; Mahomes led the NFL in pass attempts and nearly doubled his rushing yards per game last year due to offensive necessity; with a functional run game, the Chiefs may evolve the scheme with Eric Biennemi (who ran outside-zone, under-center concepts in Chicago) to take pressure off Mahomes and allow more play-action and deep shots; training camp clips show increased under-center looks.

Yards per target versus man coverage ranks 115th out of 122 wide receivers over the last two seasons; only one contested catch against man coverage in that span; extremely limited against man coverage but fantastic against zone coverage with strong yards-after-catch ability and tackle-breaking potential; one-dimensional player who is not reliable enough as a true number-one receiver despite skill set.

RJ Harvey is inconsistent and explosive but faces trust issues from the Broncos coaching staff; next-gen stats show he has the second-highest time spent behind the line of scrimmage, indicating indecisiveness; despite his speed, the team drafted Jonah Coleman and pursued other backs like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall, suggesting they don't trust Harvey enough to give him the Darren Sproles-type joker role they may have envisioned.

Mina Kimes expresses concern about a receiver (likely Hampton) being drafted at 14th overall versus Saquon Barkley at that price tag, suggesting she views Barkley as better value at that draft position.

Average target share continues to decline year over year; was the only Chiefs receiver who ranked inside the top 60 in yards per route run versus man coverage, making him a 'battleship' at this point—a reliable but limited option; both Kelce and Rasheed Rice are zone-coverage answers, creating some redundancy in the passing attack rather than complementary skill sets.

Suffered shoulder injury on the second play of the season last year (third play overall); Andy Reid subsequently reworked his role to emphasize screens and crossers, but the team ultimately decided he couldn't survive those play types and instead ran him on vertical routes down the field; did not look like the fastest player in the NFL when reviewed, which makes sense given multiple ankle injuries during the season and the shoulder injury limiting his explosiveness.

Year three is when he should take the leap, but the pressure is on him to step up for the Chiefs' passing game to improve; if the Chiefs are going to take a big step up in the passing game this year, Xavier Worthy needs to be a first-round pick caliber player; the Chiefs haven't hit a home run on first-round receivers in a while, and Worthy represents their best chance at that breakthrough.