First Class Fantasy - DO NOT Draft These Players in the First 3 Rounds | 2026 Fantasy Football
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42 min
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Jul 28, 2026
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Tue, July 28, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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1:18Every off season, fantasy analysts are going to tell you who you should be drafting in the first few rounds.
1:24Today, we're going to talk about the players you need to avoid in the first three rounds of fantasy football drafts right here on Player Profiler.
1:32What is going on, folks? Pete Nova here. This is the First Class Fantasy Podcast.
1:37Today, I am joined by Fantasy Nerd Boy. You can find him over on Twitter.
1:41You've probably seen all his dynasty takes. He also has been here on the Player Profiler channel many a times.
1:48Just, you know, why don't you tell everybody where they can find you, your X handle, what kind of work you've got
1:54going out there right now before the season starts.
1:57Yeah, Pete, thanks for having me on, man. I appreciate coming back on the channel.
2:02You know, nothing but good things over at Player Profiler.
2:05But yeah, I'm actually over at Dynasty Rewind. So I do all my content, all the pod work over there.
2:11You can catch me doing content for Dynatize as well, which is a new app that is essentially, you know, kind of
2:18taking over when it comes to values and different tools and analytics and all that good stuff.
2:23So a lot of that is through Twitter. So you can find me at Nerd Boy Takes on Twitter.
2:29There's a lot of content, man. Favorite time of the year.
2:32Obviously, camp starting up and, you know, it's a perfect storm where you get all these videos, you get people coming in
2:39with takes and really, you know, it's a good way to exploit and find edges, as I like to say, at Dynasty.
2:46Yeah, I love that. And I have seen, you know, Dynatize is awesome.
2:50Dynasty Rewind is a staple, right? I mean, they've been around for a very long time.
2:55Good dudes over there, too. So glad to see that things are going well with them over there.
3:01But let's kick things off. One of we'll start with one of your guys here.
3:05And it's going to be Jonathan Taylor, right? Jonathan Taylor of the Colts had an amazing start to the season.
3:11First half of the season finishes the running back for on the year in total points and finishes the RB for in total points per game with 21.3.
3:20This guy had 20 total touchdowns last year, and he even caught the ball 46 times, which, I mean, was kind of an anomaly for Jonathan Taylor.
3:28We don't really look at him as a player that catches a ton of passes.
3:33But last year, he kind of had the most receptions he's had since, you know, his actually in his entire career.
3:40But he's touched 40 catches one other time, and that was back in 2021.
3:44Talk to us about Jonathan Taylor, though. Why is he a player that is in a void for you?
3:50For those who don't know, Jonathan Taylor right now, ninth overall going on NFFC high stakes drafts right now in ADP.
3:56So he's a back end first round pick. But talk to us about Taylor and why you think he's a major avoid.
4:03Yeah, you know, it's Taylor. Taylor feels like he's been in the top three rounds for almost the last five years, I believe.
4:10You know, there wasn't necessarily a dip in his value in Dynasty or in the drafts.
4:15He's always been in that top echelon of player.
4:18And it's really nice. And I got to say that I've always enjoyed having Taylor on my team.
4:23And this year, it just feels a little different.
4:26You know, we saw almost an overachieving team, obviously, with the Colts.
4:30We saw Daniel Jones play out of his mind for up until that major injury.
4:35Obviously, he just was playing into a new contract.
4:37And the fact that they went all in and traded their first round picks, you know, they viewed this team as a pure contender.
4:45I just think that that was an overachievement. I think that, you know, Daniel Jones as a whole is a hard player to trust long term.
4:53I do know that he looked good in that system, but I've seen him look good before.
4:58I've seen him look day ball and then turn around and just fall apart in that sense.
5:03So ultimately, I don't have a lot of trust in the system.
5:07I don't have a lot of trust in, you know, the Colts repeating the success that they had.
5:13I think there'll still be a decent team. That defense is the real deal.
5:17But ultimately, I don't think the offensive efficiency is going to exist year two of the system.
5:22I think that they're still going to have, you know, struggles when it comes to moving the ball.
5:28And then, you know, you want to take that into consideration.
5:31But then also think about Taylor, his usage. You know, overall, I think that there is a big trend when it comes
5:38to players that have the most carries of the year.
5:41And the following year, it's just a really hard thing to repeat.
5:45It's really hard value to just say I'm coming in as a 27-year-old, 27-and-a-half-year-old.
5:49Obviously, he had 332 carries, almost 200 all-purpose yards, 2,000, excuse me, purpose yards last year.
5:54And you look at it. You know, I think that I plugged something the other day where it's, you know, of the
6:01past 12 years, 45% of running backs finish top 12 after a top-two season.
6:05And then if you cut that down and you add the age to it, you know, it drops by almost 25%.
6:12So you're looking at a 20% hit rate. And really, the only guy that's made that hit rate so successful is Derrick Henry because he's an alien.
6:20And he does this every year. And it is what it is.
6:24But, you know, if I want to look at the past five or six years, Josh Jacobs, 340 carries, finish RB3.
6:30Next year, RB28. CMC, two years. You know, 287 carries, RB1, finish, RB59 next year.
6:35CMC, 272 carries, RB1, finish, RB50. And you can look at most recently with Barkley, you know, 344 carries, RB1.
6:41The next year, RB14. I'm not saying that Jonathan Taylor isn't going to be successful.
6:46I'm not going to say that he doesn't find really good games.
6:49And the reality is I think that he'll still be finishing in the top 10, top 12 of running backs.
6:56But there's a James Cook in that range that's going below him that I'd rather take.
7:00There is Omarian Hampton. Also, Chase Brown. There's a lot of guys in that range that I think could marry his production
7:07and also carry it over the next year. If you're looking at Dynasty, I just think that there's too much juice to squeeze behind Jonathan Taylor.
7:15In this year, in this range, his ADP is a little too high for me.
7:20Yeah, I think that's fair. And I'm going to pull up the – just to give the folks an idea of the
7:27running backs and kind of where they're being drafted currently.
7:30Right? You have Taylor as the RB4. You have Ashton Gentty just behind him.
7:34James Cook, Devon H. And Amar in Hampton. Chase Brown is somebody who I've really, really fallen in love with this offseason.
7:41And he's a player that I actually have not very far off from projections to Jonathan Taylor.
7:46And I think that when you start to look at the running back position and you start to kind of dig in for what's most important.
7:54I dropped an article a couple days ago. And it talks more about opportunity versus talent, what's more important.
8:00And it's really a lot about the weighted opportunity.
8:03And Jonathan Taylor did exceed expectations last year, 20 total touchdowns.
8:06This offense in general was just on fire. And I think there are some concerns.
8:11You have Alec Pierce who is on the pup list right now.
8:15Is he going to return week one? We don't know.
8:18They don't have Michael Pittman now either. So they've almost subtracted two big-time wide receivers that they had on this team.
8:24And you're hoping Josh Towns and Warren take steps forward.
8:27And we still don't really know what's going to happen with Pierce.
8:31If he's going to start and miss the first four games or is he going to come back for week one?
8:38Maybe he starts off slow. But the truth is we saw what this offense looked like when teams stacked the boxes when
8:44Daniel Jones was out because they had bad quarterback play.
8:47What does the offense look like with Alec Pierce maybe out for a few weeks or no Michael Pittman?
8:53And now it's relying a lot on Alec Pierce clearing things out and defenses maybe being allowed to have some more stacked
9:00boxes against this offense, especially if they're not nearly as explosive, which is what they were a ton last year.
9:06So totally, totally understand you having Jonathan Taylor out there.
9:09He's somebody that after we talked pre-show and looking into it, he's definitely somebody I'll have my eye on.
9:15My early projections for Taylor was somewhere on 300 carries.
9:18I had him back at 43 receptions. I think it's a good tell that I think he'll be involved in the receiving game similar to last year.
9:27But I think it's really about those touchdowns, right?
9:30And those dropping, right? I haven't projected around 18 fantasy points per game, which obviously isn't 23.
9:35But it's really about, you know, how does he get back to that 23?
9:39And I think a lot of it hinges on this offense being explosive again.
9:43Daniel Jones having to repeat what he did last year and then also really Taylor just having this touchdown, you know, bounce back or just repeatability.
9:51And I don't know that I see it. I do have him for 12 rushing and two and two and a half receiving.
9:59Does that kind of line up with where you would expect him?
10:02And what do you think about this backfield with these other running backs, right?
10:07I mean, you have Seth McGowan, who was drafted this year, was a really highly talented prospect coming out of high school,
10:13obviously had some legal issues and it kind of slowed his college career down.
10:18But you have him and then you have DJ Giddens.
10:21There was some talk from coaches that, you know, they want to keep Taylor a little bit more healthy this year.
10:27Do you have concern that those guys are going to eat into his workload a little bit?
10:33Or is it really just more about, you know, just taking a step back in regression for the offense as a whole?
10:39Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I have general concerns for the guys behind him.
10:44I think that, you know, I had high hopes for Giddens.
10:48I do like Seth McGowan to a degree. I think that he is an NFL.
10:52He just does things the right way. I think that he is going to do the little things that a coaching staff would actually really appreciate.
11:00But I don't know if that's enough to get him on the field to actually take some some carries away from Jonathan Taylor.
11:08But I don't think it's such a bad idea if you're looking at a team that, like I said before, doesn't have
11:14its first round pick really is probably trying to conserve their talent and trying to look at it from a perspective of,
11:21you know, do we want this guy to be fresh and healthy for the stretch run?
11:26And I think that that could be a real possibility.
11:29But it's also more about just, you know, Daniel Jones, the major injury.
11:33Is he going to be as efficient? That offense was extremely efficient last year.
11:38You know, just kind of, like I said, overachieved to the degree where, you know, the red zone touches, everything was juiced up.
11:45I don't think that it's going to have that same pull.
11:48I don't think that they're going to have the same kind of success.
11:52They won a lot of close games last year.
11:55And if you look at their splits from the success and their wins and the losses, I mean, Jonathan Taylor drops dramatically.
12:02You know, when looking at the splits with Daniel Jones, he was RB2.
12:06And then, you know, without him, he was RB17.
12:08And we saw the regression even after Daniel Jones went down.
12:12He was just not efficient. So if this injury becomes a bigger deal than it is, I think that we have to
12:19be really concerned about Jonathan Taylor delivering on that ADP.
12:22Yeah, I think that's totally fair. We're going to take a quick break, pay the bills, and then we'll be right back with CD Lam.
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13:47All right, folks. We are back here. First Class Fantasy on Player Profiler.
13:51And we're going to kick it over to CeeDee Lamb.
13:54CeeDee Lamb is a player that I am avoiding in the first round.
13:58Oh, gosh. That is a terrible picture of CeeDee Lamb.
14:01I apologize for that. I probably should do a little bit more quality control there, but no worries.
14:07Hey, we know who it is. Yeah. So, CeeDee Lamb, we're talking about him.
14:11And CeeDee Lamb ADP-wise, this is another player in the first round.
14:15He's going at pick 12. So, in sharp drafts ADP in NFFC, 11.76 is the average draft position.
14:20I'm assuming, or I believe, that in regular your home leagues, CeeDee Lamb is going to go a little bit higher than pick 12.
14:28I think he's probably going to settle in somewhere around pick 10.
14:31I have some concerns about CeeDee Lamb, though. I love the player.
14:35I just worry a little bit about what we saw last season, right?
14:39And I'm going to dig into it right here in a second.
14:43When it comes to Lamb, right, you look at a player, wide receiver 22 last year.
14:48And Lamb is a guy who we've kind of seen slightly regress.
14:51And he's also kind of been a little bit overinflated, which is really hard to say because I love the player.
14:58But when you look at CeeDee Lamb, right, he was 11th in points per game this past year, 14.4.
15:04But he's had just one top six finish in points per game.
15:07And that was three years ago in 2023 when he was first in total fantasy points.
15:12But when we take a look at CeeDee Lamb and you take a look at where he has finished in years prior,
15:19right, it's been seven in 2024, seven in 2022, and then 18 and 33 in his first two seasons.
15:25And then obviously this year he finished at 11.
15:28So you sit there and say to yourself, can he get back to wide receiver one?
15:33If I'm drafting a player in round one, I want this player to have wide receiver one upside.
15:38And I don't see that with CeeDee Lamb, unfortunately, when you factor in George Pickens is right there.
15:44Now, I do have CeeDee Lamb ending up with more targets than George Pickens this year.
15:49But when you just pace out CeeDee Lamb last year on a 17-game pace, he was going to get 142 targets.
15:55That would have also been the lowest finish in his total targets since 2021.
16:00And it's no surprise that that comes with George Pickens next to him in the offense.
16:05When you look back early on in CeeDee Lamb's career, he was competing against Amari Cooper for targets, right?
16:11And he's kind of had the ability to really be a dominant player where there haven't been other focal points on the
16:17offense at the position that are heavy target earners.
16:20George Pickens is on a contract year right now, right?
16:23George Pickens is looking to get paid. And I don't know.
16:27Maybe he gets paid before the season. Maybe something works out.
16:30They get it done before training camp. Or maybe he plays on the tag, right?
16:35But this is a guy who in Pickens that I can't imagine is going to be playing pissed off this year who
16:41really wasn't that far off when you look at what he did versus CeeDee Lamb last year.
16:47In terms of my total points per game projection for both of these players, I have George Pickens at 16.4 fantasy points per game.
16:54I have CeeDee Lamb at 17.2. The difference is George Pickens is a 2-3 turn pick right now in fantasy drafts.
17:01And CeeDee Lamb is probably going to be around 10 to 12 in your home league drafts.
17:06It's a lot of risk for a guy that I don't have projected to finish a full point ahead of his counterpart
17:13in CeeDee Lamb, I mean, in George Pickens. And the truth is, when I look at these targets, right, I have Pickens at 136.
17:20I have Lamb at 148. 99 receptions for Lamb, 91 for Pickens, right?
17:24I think Lamb's going to get the easier targets, right?
17:27But Pickens is still slotted for more yards for me.
17:30He's got 1,400 in his projections. Lamb for 13.15.
17:33And Lamb I have projected for two more touchdowns.
17:36But I could easily see a world where CeeDee Lamb scores eight touchdowns and George Pickens scores 10 this year.
17:42Like, there is a world where that happens. And unless you're Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins when you have two absolute dogs
17:49on your team, and you're just Jamar Chase who's just flat out better than Tee Higgins, I can't say at this point
17:56that CeeDee Lamb is flat out better than George Pickens at this point in his career.
18:01And there's a lot of risk taking a guy who, as I mentioned, has only finished inside the top six in fantasy
18:07points per game one time over his entire career.
18:10And that was three years ago when he wasn't battling this kind of target competition.
18:15So I have concerns on CeeDee Lamb. I am out on him at cost.
18:19If he slips in some drafts to the second round, I'll absolutely take some exposure, take some shots on him.
18:25But as a first-round pick, I'm looking for upside.
18:28And I just don't see it for him this season.
18:31What are your thoughts? Yeah, I think I'm with you on that.
18:35I think that that's a good comparison where you're looking at CeeDee Lamb and then Jamar Chase, where you obviously know who the alpha is.
18:43You understand. And I think that the team breakdown and the chemistry within the team itself is fully operable.
18:49But when you have two guys of similar skill set, I just don't know.
18:53I know that they coexisted last year. But the reality is I don't think CeeDee Lamb is going to have a good
19:00time letting go of that Batman role and being a Robin to Pickens.
19:04I think that there could be some volatility there.
19:06Obviously, if you want lazy analysis, you can look at the splits between even year and odd year Dak Prescott.
19:13And you can go into that a little bit.
19:15But there is some concern in the sense that we saw Ferguson really break out.
19:20I know that he's existed and he's done well.
19:23But the reality is we haven't seen all of these guys on the field consistently.
19:27You know, they've been working with Dak almost singularly in the sense that, you know, they're getting this chemistry going when one of the guys is out.
19:36And then they're kind of cooking a little bit and they're doing this when the other guy's out.
19:41But they haven't really been on the field for a consistent amount of time together.
19:46And I think that that is something that we're going to watch this year.
19:50But like you said, where he's going, he's going to be wide receiver six currently.
19:55And I think that even in A.J. Brown, when he's over at the Patriots with Drake May is an easier click for me.
20:02When I'm talking about just for this year, I think that that's something, you know, when they're similarly at the same age
20:09and we're talking about a pure alpha. You want a pure alpha in this stage.
20:14You know, I'm looking at it. You've got JSN.
20:16You've got Puka, Justin Jefferson, and then CeeDee Lamb's right there.
20:20You know, you can't say that he's a pure alpha at that click.
20:24And that's what you need at that range right there.
20:27I would much rather wait and take an A.J.
20:30Brown or you're right, even a George Pickens, knowing that you're going to get a guy that is at least, you know,
20:36in this range, demanding the targets without spending like the extreme price of the first round pick that you're going to have to take for CeeDee Lamb.
20:45Yeah, I'm with you there. And these are all valid things.
20:48And it's the classic caveat or cop out for analysts, right, where it's love the player, don't like the price, right?
20:55It's always an easy way to say, hey, I'm not really in love with this guy, but, you know, I just don't love his price.
21:02But, you know, realistically, I don't love either, right?
21:05I don't like the setup. I don't like the situation.
21:08It's not even totally about the price. If you told me, yeah, if you told me CeeDee Lamb was going, you know,
21:15in the mid-second round, you know, I would think that's a fair price for him.
21:20But I look at some other players and you look at Drake London, you look at George Pickens.
21:25If you told me George Pickens finishes a top five wide receiver, I wouldn't be necessarily surprised.
21:31You know, and before we move on, because I just want to take a look at this real quick.
21:36George Pickens finishes wide receiver five last year. George Pickens finished fifth in points per game.
21:41George Pickens' season last year was better than every single year that CeeDee Lamb has had outside of one where he finishes
21:48a wide receiver one in points per game. And this is the first year George Pickens had a real quarterback.
21:54So, you know, that's pretty telling that I don't think it's a blip on the radar for Pickens.
22:00I do think he's going to be heavily involved.
22:03It's going to be interesting to see how this offense shakes out.
22:06But let's go ahead and move over to your next guy.
22:10And it really hurts me to see this player, but it's going to be Chris Olave.
22:15Chris Olave coming over from the Saints. Tyler Shuck in year two.
22:18Olave looked phenomenal his last season. Wide receiver six.
22:21If you drafted Chris Olave, you profited heavily last year.
22:24His ADP in many such cases was going in like the 70s last year.
22:29It was pretty crazy. You got a ton of return on investment.
22:32But you seem to think that you're not going to have that return on investment given his price.
22:38His price point right now is currently getting picked at that wide receiver or that pick 26 range on NFFC.
22:44And you seem to think that that's a mistake.
22:47Tell the viewers and listeners why exactly Chris Olave is a trap pick at his current cost.
22:52Yeah, you know, Chris Olave to me kind of mirrors the Brian Thomas Jr.
22:56year when a sense that you looked at a player that probably overachieved and really succeeded in a situation where nobody necessarily saw they were going to succeed.
23:05You know, Mac Jones with with Brian Thomas Jr.
23:08was kind of viewed as like a dead year, you know.
23:11And obviously, nobody really viewed him, especially with his ADP and rookie drafts said he's going to be a league winner.
23:18That's not really what reflected in people's minds at the time.
23:21But, you know, ultimately, we're seeing Chris Olave really do extraordinary things in a year with Tyler Shuck, who I think by
23:28the by the community and as a whole in the NFL and in fantasy was a little overdrafted.
23:34But obviously, they knew what they were doing and taking Tyler Shuck.
23:37And I think that, you know, it's a really good fit over there.
23:41And I think the entire team is a great fit.
23:44But we're looking at just like over there, a new offensive coordinator.
23:48We're looking at a lot of change. We're also looking at the fact that they just took a highly drafted first round
23:55wide receiver to be next to Olave when Olave was essentially sharing targets with Jawan Johnson last year.
24:00So, I mean, we haven't seen Olave. Obviously, we saw what he could do in a juiced, you know, field over at Ohio State.
24:08But in the NFL, it's really been the Olave show for the most part on the Saints by himself.
24:14I think that it's going to be interesting to say, all right, we're going to add another first round wide receiver and
24:21we're going to see how this splits. And I think, you know, adding another running back into the mix and just a
24:27more balanced attack is in place because we're talking about somebody that got 156 targets last year.
24:33I don't think he gets 156 targets this year.
24:35And of those 156 targets, he got 100 receptions.
24:38And he only really equated that to 1150 yards.
24:41So I think that we're looking at a probably a decrease in receptions and then also probably a decrease in yards.
24:47I think that maybe the efficiency goes up, but I don't necessarily think that he's going to repeat that usage of PPR formats.
24:55And then you have to add in the fact that, you know, there are concussion histories and the fact that he does have four concussions.
25:02I'm not going to say that's a knock on his ADP.
25:06I'm not going to say that I'm going to just, you know, fade him for that.
25:11But it's also something you have to consider. I'm not going to be blind to the fact that he does have that history.
25:18And then you add in blood clots and blood clots are scary things.
25:22You know, they can come back. They can be recurrent.
25:25You can have a blood clot that you don't even know you have.
25:29And I think that once you have a history of blood clots, we saw in 2024, the name is slipping me right now.
25:36But, you know, guys suddenly retire from blood clots now.
25:39And it is the reality of it. They can get scary and it can affect your heart health, your brain health.
25:46Everything. So, you know, there are a couple of things that obviously have to do with health there.
25:51But I think there's a lot of worry attached to this team breakdown.
25:55There's a lot of change. Nussmeyer is a brand new offensive coordinator.
25:59He's never even been an offensive coordinator before. I know that he's got a big background in football, obviously.
26:05And I'm excited to see what he can bring to this team.
26:08But there's some concern there that it might not work out.
26:12And then, you know, there's obviously the whole transition of adding somebody else into the target chair.
26:17I just think that at that ADP, there are guys that I'd much prefer to happen.
26:22Yeah. Chris Olave is interesting. I'm not fully there fading him at his current cost.
26:27But you do bring up some fair points. I mean, obviously, the concussion and health is always going to be a concern.
26:34The blood clots are something that we started to kind of hear about in the middle of this offseason.
26:39That was kind of a scare when we started to hear about it.
26:43And when you look at Olave, right, I mean, he was number one in air yards last year, 1,840.
26:49I don't know that that stays the same, right?
26:52Air yards is one of the bigger predictors in success for wide receivers going into the following year.
26:58One thing I would also notice is red zone targets, right?
27:0115. That was 13th in the NFL. Red zone target area, 31.9%, which was good enough for fifth in the NFL.
27:08On one hand, I do expect this offense to be in the red zone, actually, more this year than last year, right?
27:14They add Travis Etienne. That run game should be better.
27:17And this is a pretty easy schedule for them.
27:20You know, depending on who you follow, which strength of schedule.
27:24I use Justin Boone over at Yahoo. I trust a lot of his process and his projections.
27:29And he's got Olave and the wide receivers for the Saints, 8th easiest strength to schedule, quarterback-wise, 10th easiest, and running back
27:36at 3rd easiest, and tight ends at 15. So it is a really good schedule for Chris Olave.
27:41So I'm not totally fading him at his cost, but I can totally respect that, you know, you have some concerns there.
27:48I think Jordan Tyson's really the big wild card here, right?
27:51Is he going to step up year one and be a guy that's going to command a ton of targets?
27:58I have Jordan Tyson, you know, projected for an 18% target share, 100 targets in year one.
28:03I think that's pretty fair. Or it's a matter of, is he going to ding Olave to the point where Olave's targets drop a little bit, right?
28:11I think Tyson should be better than Rashid Shahid.
28:14What we saw last year in him, maybe it takes him a little bit of time to get going, but overall, much better talent.
28:21And he's also going to be a weapon in the red zone, right?
28:25Does Chris Olave see that same target share in the red zone?
28:29That is something I definitely see him regressing in and I see his air yards coming down a little bit.
28:35He finished last year as, you know, the wide receiver six.
28:39I don't think that that's in the cards again, but you know what?
28:43I think it's also not extremely crazy when you just factor in how easy the schedule is.
28:48They play in a dome, they play against some really bad defenses, but overall, I'm totally, totally okay.
28:54If you sat there and told me, Hey, I'm really high on Devonta Smith this year.
28:59I'm really high on the Malik Neighbors dip, right?
29:01Neighbors is going one spot behind Chris Olave. You know, there's possibility.
29:05Neighbors get some good steam here in camp, starts getting some good coach speak and Neighbors starts going ahead of Olave too.
29:12If Neighbors is ready to go week one, right?
29:15I'm definitely taking him over Olave. You have Rashi Rice that's going ahead.
29:19So there are some players in his area that I would definitely prefer.
29:23I don't think Olave is going to bust this year, but I definitely understand where your point is.
29:28The price has gotten to a point where you would think he would probably be valued more towards that Zay Flowers area,
29:35maybe towards that T Higgins, Devonta Smith area, and he's going about 10 picks ahead.
29:40So I do agree that I think the market's a little too far out ahead of him.
29:45And just given where his price is, I would probably avoid taking him in that spot as well.
29:50Do you have any pushback on that before we move on to the next guy?
29:55No pushback. I think just echoing the fact that, you know, I think maybe this is my own bias, but I do
30:02like a Zay Flowers with a Declan Doyle. And, you know, ideally there's not going to be an addition, a Stefan Diggs added to that team.
30:10You are going to get somebody that, you know, was wide receiver seven last year.
30:15Are you talking about wide receiver six, wide receiver seven?
30:18With really no additions. I know that they took a couple of guys later in the draft, but I don't see them
30:24taking away from where he works in the middle of the field.
30:28And then, you know, I think that Devonta Smith, AJ Brown is something that you really have to raise your eyebrows about a little bit.
30:36At least year one where Makai Lemon is still getting adjusted.
30:39I think that, you know, there's a good chance that Devonta Smith has that resurgent, that jump up year.
30:45And that's what we really looked for with Olave last year.
30:49I think that the idea is to kind of get the value in these drafts and try to grab these guys that
30:55could be the Olave this year and avoiding the ones that are already valued as the Olave currently.
31:01Because I can't tap that. And really, you know, I think that you made some good points and I think that we're
31:08almost simpatico in the sense that, you know, it's just a little too rich for us.
31:13Yeah. Last thing I would say is just the touchdowns, right?
31:16We saw it with Olave at least. That's probably why Zay Flowers' cost isn't up there.
31:21Olave with nine touchdowns, just the target share and the usage in the red zone.
31:26Declan Doyle is going to be really interesting to see if he ups that usage for Zay Flowers in the red zone as well this year.
31:34Let's go ahead and move over to our final player.
31:37And it's going to be my player. And it's going to be Nico Collins.
31:41You know, I've been pretty vocal about Nico Collins this offseason.
31:45I mean, don't get me wrong. Like if you're talking Nico Collins, I drafted a ton of him in Dynasty, profited in
31:51many such ways because, you know, this was a player that, you know, coming out of college, third round pick, you know,
31:58didn't do too much in his first two seasons, didn't touch 500 receiving yards.
32:02And now he's gone back to back to back three seasons in a row, you know, with over a thousand receiving yards.
32:09But I just look at Nico and I do have some concerns here with Nico Collins with his current cost.
32:15Right now, Nico Collins is pretty, pretty expensive, right?
32:18You're talking wide receiver 22 on NFFC, you know, ADP right now.
32:22And Nico Collins last year, wide receiver eight in points per in total points, wide receiver nine in points per game with 15.1.
32:29I think the Nico Collins finish last year is a little bit misleading though, right?
32:3415.1 points per game is really not a lot for the wide receiver nine in points per game.
32:39If you look at the last two years before that in 2024 and 2023, that would be good enough for wide receiver 18, right?
32:47We saw a decrease in wide receiver usage last year.
32:50We saw points down for the wide receiver position last year.
32:53I'm not, you might sit here and say, Pete, what if that's the norm?
32:58What if we see that again this year? Right?
33:00So does it really matter if it's relative to, you know, the other, you know, positions or, or, you know, if it's
33:07relative to, you know, the other players at the position, because if it's still down this year, what does it matter?
33:14Right? He's still maybe a top 10 wide receiver.
33:16I just look at players in that range. I look at running backs in that range that I would much rather take swings on, right?
33:24Derek Henry, maybe, right? Maybe you're taking a chance on him, or maybe you're taking a chance on a Kenneth Walker, right?
33:31There are some running backs in that area, or maybe you're somebody who, who, who really wants to take Brock Bowers, right?
33:38I'm not a tight end high drafter, right? But there are cases where if you told me, Hey, it's Nico Collins or
33:45Brock Bowers, I'm probably taking Brock Bowers of those two players.
33:48So digging into Nico Collins, just a little bit on, on some of my concerns with him.
33:53You look at Nico Collins and you look at what's going on in this offense, right?
33:58This is a slow paced offense who has, is looking to have a strong run game, right?
34:0313th in rushing attempts last year, despite them having a putrid run game behind Woody Marks and, and what is left of
34:10Nick Chubb at this point, you have to Nico Ryan's who watched his quarterback kind of melt down in the playoffs as
34:17well as kind of get beat up a ton over the last couple of seasons.
34:22And he's been at, he's been somewhat ineffective, right?
34:24And a lot of it has to do with just being punch drunk, not having maybe the best scheme and just a
34:31combination of that plus the offensive line. And you just look at it.
34:35They still wanted to run the football last year.
34:38They've improved the offensive line a little bit this year.
34:41They've improved the, proved the run game. I mean, I love David Montgomery.
34:45I don't know. David Montgomery is still the same guy from the lions, but still one of my favorite running backs to watch play in the NFL.
34:53They want to run the football. They want to play good defense and they invested heavily in the wide receivers in this room.
35:01You still have Jalen Noel who struggled with the, with the playbook last year.
35:05You still have Jaden Higgins who looked like he belonged in the NFL.
35:09He might not have been a major fantasy asset, but he still looked like he belonged in the NFL.
35:15And then you have tank Dell who there's some solid reports going out there.
35:19He looks pretty decent in some of these workout videos.
35:22Obviously I'm not going to get too hyped about it, but the reports seem pretty positive about tank Dell.
35:28Well, it's just there, there becomes a decent amount of enough talent in an offense that I think is going to be run heavy that I worry about.
35:37Nico also 10th in red zone target share. I think that could regress.
35:41I also think he's also struggled with some injuries.
35:44He struggled with staying healthy. He's missed two games every single season of his career.
35:48And he has two seasons where he's missed four games.
35:51Right. And then David Montgomery in the red zone.
35:54I think he'll also be a guy that's going to score and vulture some touchdowns where they may have had to throw
36:01the football more than they would have liked down in the red zone.
36:05Now they have a guy that can go punch it in and go score touchdowns for them.
36:10So that's the case for me with Nico Collins.
36:13What are your thoughts on Nico? Is he a guy that you're fading right now?
36:18Or do you think his price is pretty, is it's pretty fair given, given the talent?
36:23Yeah. I wish it was some pushback in this episode, honestly, but it's really hard when you're picking all the guys that I, I dislike ADP wise.
36:31Nico Collins to me was probably a really big, my guy, you know, coming out as you pointed, he was really undervalued.
36:38And I don't think that there were a lot of people that were saying, you know, Nico Collins breakout is coming and
36:44it took, you know, Stroud coming in really hot to, to really show what Nico Collins ceiling was.
36:50And I don't think that we're going to get that hot Stroud maybe ever again.
36:55I mean, I'm, I'm not sure. Stroud seems a little broken at this point.
36:59You know, if you, if you watch the way that he finished last year, I think that there's a lot of mental
37:06stuff going on and I, I'm not sure if we're going to see somebody come back from that.
37:11Um, at least for the short term of this year, I don't see a lot of, you know, signs point to Stroud
37:18being the long-term answer over the Texans, unless he, you know, finds a way to just really reel it back in and
37:25go back to his, you know, rookie year where, you know, I think that everything fell really perfectly for him.
37:31So you're looking at a guy that is being taken highly in draft, but doesn't have the volume, doesn't have the high
37:38volume and the high, because obviously he has 15.7 yards per catch, a hundred percent catch rate.
37:43I mean, his efficiency is elite by, by all means, he just doesn't have the hyper target that you want.
37:49You know, he's not getting the plus targets like the JSMs and the Pukas and really, you know, the ADP there, that's what you're, you're drafting for.
37:58You're drafting him, you know, in this range where you like, where you could get your, your hammer running back or that,
38:05you know, and for even talking way off of this ADP, but if you're looking at it from a dynasty perspective too,
38:11I know that that's not necessarily what we're looking at in a lens, but like he's going ahead of some of these
38:18very good quarterbacks, these great running backs, you know, um, his ADP right now is in the third round of dynasty startups.
38:25And I just can't, I just can't get behind that.
38:28You know, he's an older, um, wide receiver that is essentially going to write out this contract.
38:33And I'm not sure if he's going to get extended.
38:36I'm not sure if he's going to be on there and maybe that's a good thing for him.
38:42Um, but ultimately I think there's a ton of upside and a ton of guys that I think are set and forget
38:49it as far as the value goes and the players that you can get later in ADP that are going to match and mirror his production.
38:57And it's not necessarily Nico Collins problem. It's more of a, um, a CJ Stroud problem for me.
39:02Yeah, I think it's, it's scheme, it's situation it's coaching.
39:05Um, it's not really a talent. It's really just more of a situation.
39:09And, and that's why a lot of things for me on a year to year, maybe not dynasty purposes, but from a
39:16redraft standpoint, it's really role versus talent a lot of times for me.
39:20And then, and when it's a tiebreaker, then it goes to talent.
39:24But, um, just taking a look here really quick before we get out of here, uh, just to show, you know, where
39:31Nico Collins goes, he's going at 23. Um, I don't really love Jeremiah love here either in this spot.
39:37Um, I would much rather George Pickens. I'd much rather AJ Brown, those two players.
39:41Um, I would prefer over, uh, Nico Collins, Derek Henry, if he slipped back there, I would take him as well.
39:48Um, I think if I'm being honest, I think Nico should probably be really going towards this, like Malik and Tet area
39:55right down here, pick 32 to 34. Um, I think he's probably about, you know, close to 10 spots ahead of his,
40:01ahead of where he should be going as well.
40:04And like you mentioned, it's, it's the ceiling. Like what is that ceiling?
40:08He's going to have to be hyper, hyper efficient and score a lot of touchdowns, right.
40:13In order for him to really pay off at that price.
40:17And I, I play to win, man. I play to win, especially if I'm in high stakes, if I'm in home links, doesn't really matter.
40:24Like I'm not going for floor in the first three rounds.
40:28I can make up floor. I can find a lot of depth players.
40:32You can target the Josh downs, you know, kinds of guys in the eighties and nineties area, the Ricky Pearsalls.
40:38If you want to take chances on them, if you want floor, you know, with maybe not as high of a ceiling, like I can find those guys.
40:47What I can't find is those guys that are going to be top five potential.
40:51And I don't see it with Nico Collins. Um, but that's going to do it for us guys.
40:57Thank you so much for watching my man. Why don't you plug what you got going on, where your work is located.
41:04And then we'll hit the, we'll hit the, we'll hit the, the end button.
41:08I was going to say the pause button, but you get what I'm saying.
41:12I get what you're saying. And yeah, um, you know, obviously, as I mentioned before, I'm a nerd boy takes on Twitter.
41:19Dias Rewind is where our pods are going. Um, you can find a lot of my analytics side at Dynatize over there
41:26using their app and plugging in all the values and, um, player rankings are all going to be public over there very, very soon.
41:33Um, so just really cooking a lot of stuff, having some fun and Pete, man, I appreciate you having me on today.
41:40From the pod father to you. I deeply appreciate you tuning in and many ask, what can I do?
41:46What can I do to help support the host, the research they do, the production costs go to playerprofiler.com dynasty locks, world
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