KTC vs. PlayerProfiler: Welcome to Dynasty Trade Season
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
2 hr 41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 11, 2026
Published
Sun, October 11, 2026
21
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Bryce YoungLamar JacksonBaker MayfieldJayden DanielsMarvin Harrison Jr.Austin EkelerBrock PurdyCarnell TateChuba HubbardDe'Von AchaneMichael WilsonNico CollinsOllie Gordon II
Player analysis
Player insights
Austin Ekeler
PositiveUsage13:44
Austin Ekeler is noted for looking like a superior running back compared to his teammates Rashad White, Ja'Cory Merritt, and K-Tron Allen when he gets on the field, despite his off-field activities.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection51:31
Baker Mayfield serves as the primary career comp for Bryce Young, with the source noting that Mayfield's breakout occurred after years of bouncing between teams and finding stability in a system that maximized his efficiency.
Insight pagePositiveProjection102:58
The source highlights Baker Mayfield's 2023 season as a turning point where he took a step toward positivity, followed by further growth in 2024, ultimately finishing as a top-four fantasy quarterback in 2023 under coach Dave Canales.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue17:11
Brock Purdy is highlighted as a player who suffers from a lack of high draft capital, which slows his rise in dynasty valuations despite consistent elite performance. He has maintained one of the best EPA per play marks for a quarterback over the last decade, yet it takes him years to earn the same respect that high-draft-capital players like Bryce Young receive after only four games.
Insight pageBryce Young
PositiveProjection8:56
Bryce Young has taken significant steps forward in year three under Dave Canales, showing top-10 efficiency and productivity metrics. Despite a depleted offensive line, he is producing at a high level, including a 330-yard, 70% completion game against Detroit. While he has moved up 7-8 QB spots in dynasty rankings, he still has room to grow as the offense continues to develop.
Insight pageNegativeValue10:20
The source argues that Bryce Young is currently overvalued on crowdsourced platforms like Keep Trade Cut, where he is ranked as QB10. This ranking is seen as an overreaction to a small sample size of four games, placing him ahead of proven performers like Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert. The source notes that Player Profiler remains more conservative, ranking him at QB18.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout44:24
The source suggests Bryce Young is a potential breakout candidate, comparing his career trajectory to Baker Mayfield's path of needing time to marinate before finding success in the right system.
Insight pageNegativeProjection103:21
The source suggests that Bryce Young's development is tied to the presence of coach Dave Canales, drawing a parallel to Baker Mayfield's success under the same coach, though the market's valuation of Young remains volatile.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue60:34
The source identifies Carnell Tate as a priority dynasty trade target, citing a significant disparity between PlayerProfiler's rankings and the consensus market (KeepTradeCut). The source notes Tate is on a historic pace regarding target share.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveValue105:19
The source argues that Chuba Hubbard is undervalued at RB22 in public consensus rankings. He has emerged as a true bell-cow back at age 27, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game over a recent four-week stretch, and is a preferred roster target over De'Von Achane for the next two to three years.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue109:27
The source identifies De'Von Achane as a sell-low candidate due to his season-ending injury, an uncertain future offensive situation in Miami, and a high 'uncertainty quotient' regarding his health and role, despite his high public valuation.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeValue11:56
Jaden Daniels is currently ranked as QB4 by Player Profiler, reflecting a more metrics-based approach compared to the public's aggressive valuation. The source notes that while Daniels and Bryce Young are adjacent in Keep Trade Cut rankings, there are significant concerns regarding the Washington offense, including a defensive-minded coaching staff and an aging wide receiver corps.
Insight pagePositiveValue51:00
Jayden Daniels is ranked significantly higher than Lamar Jackson by the source due to his younger age, making him a preferred asset in dynasty trades.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeValue43:31
The source views Lamar Jackson as a 'raging sell' in dynasty formats, citing his declining rushing volume—which has been cut in half compared to his career apex—and the lack of a viable trade market in superflex leagues where contending teams already possess elite quarterbacks.
Insight pagePositiveProjection67:29
The source notes that Lamar Jackson has achieved career highs in yards per attempt and completion percentage, showing improved efficiency as a passer, even as his rushing volume has decreased.
Insight pageNegativeValue110:34
The source views Lamar Jackson as a major sell-low candidate in superflex dynasty leagues, noting that his market is illiquid and he has consistently leaked value. The source recommends taking a 2027 first-round pick or creative packages to move on from him.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeDepth Chart18:09
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been traded by the Arizona Cardinals in his third season. The source compares his rapid departure to other high-draft-pick busts like Trey Lance and Mike Williams, noting that his long-standing player profile comparison has been Devontae Parker.
Insight pageNegativeBust34:15
The source asserts that Marvin Harrison Jr.'s time in Arizona is effectively over, with the team planning to trade him. The source compares his career trajectory to Trey Lance and Mike Williams, noting that his NFL production has been disappointing relative to expectations. The source suggests he is a 'washed up has been' and advises against trading for him, as he is expected to collapse in dynasty rankings.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveBreakout50:34
The source highlights Michael Wilson as a success story, noting that he earned his role through hard work as a third-round pick. The source suggests Wilson has 'won' his situation in Arizona, contrasting his meritocratic rise with the struggles of higher-drafted players.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue48:38
The source strongly defends Nico Collins' dynasty value, stating that anyone who lowers his valuation due to the potential arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. in Houston is an 'idiot.' Collins is described as an 'old school alpha' who has earned his status through meritocracy.
Insight pageOllie Gordon II
NegativeDepth Chart111:12
The source clarifies that De'Von Achane is preferred over Ollie Gordon in dynasty rankings, despite some analysts ranking Gordon highly in the Miami backfield.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Justin Herbert with the Sonic Truth Dynasty Podcast.
0:03And so we have a lot of changes now up and down the Dynasty rankings.
0:08We're essentially breaking news about where players are going in Dynasty today on the Sonic Truth Dynasty Podcast.
0:14And Cody, we start with the Panthers. The Panthers are the big movers and the reason why the Panthers are moving and
0:21we're going to look at keep trade cut today.
0:24We're going to look at where guys are in the consensus, where the public has these players rated when the public has
0:31a choice of do you want Bryce Young or do you want Justin Herbert?
0:35In Dynasty, in Superflex Dynasty. That's the most important.
0:38This is Superflex. We are assuming this is Superflex.
0:41The vast majority of my leagues are Superflex. The vast majority of Cody's leagues I know are Superflex.
0:47So that is the assumption. And okay, at this point, there's a perception built in the last four weeks about who these players are.
0:54There's also a perception that's been built for a lot of these players over time, the last two, three, four, five years, what these players are.
1:03And now four weeks in the results from 2026 are really driving lifetime values.
1:07They're driving perceptions, but there's huge inefficiencies right now.
1:10In terms of a trade window in Dynasty, this is one of the best times to trade because certain people are processing information one way.
1:18Others in your league might be processing it in a different way.
1:22There's a wide variety of opinions. And there's a wide variety of Dynasty ranking services and player valuation services.
1:28And we're going to break down how we at Player Profiler assign lifetime values to these players and compare it to how
1:35the public can assign values to players. When you're crowdsourcing player values, it can create great opportunity for a service like Player
1:42Profiler service like Roster Watch coming in and saying, well, we've rated these players based on our process a certain way.
1:49And there might be certain players, particular players we're going to talk about today, where there's a wide variance between where the
1:56public is and where we are, where Player Profiler is, where Roster Watch is.
2:00And you go to Player Profiler is, Dynasty Rankings, you can see where we have these players.
2:06You go to Roster Watch, you see their Dynasty Rankings, see where Cody and Trashman and Alex have these guys rated in Dynasty.
2:13And then you can make some strategic decisions. We're going to lay out who some of those players are today, where there's
2:20exploitable value on the table right now, uniquely available to you at this point in the season.
2:26You start with Carolina when you're having this conversation, because Carolina is the team where their total pass volume has grossly exceeded all expectations.
2:33Where this was projected to be a bottom five or bottom 10 offense, just in terms of play volume, run heavy, hide the quarterback.
2:41That was the assumption coming into the year for Carolina.
2:44That was the assumption. You look at the Vegas lines, you look at everybody's rankings across all of fantasy football.
2:51That was the consensus. We're raising our hands. I certainly thought Carolina would be at least a bottom half of the league in terms of total plays run.
3:00Not the case. Carolina is actually now top 10.
3:02And when you project it for the full season, if you start to factor in, at this point, we're factoring about 25%
3:09what that team was coming into the season. But now because four games, you start to have a significant sample.
3:1675% of our projection is based on what these teams have been doing this year, especially volume.
3:21Opportunity is king. How many plays are they running?
3:24How many pass plays are they running? How many running plays vis-a-vis the rest of the league?
3:30And in terms of rush attempts, Carolina is actually trending a little bit below where we had them projected.
3:36When you project their rush attempts, they're 22nd. When you project their pass attempts, where they're going to finish this season, total pass attempts, they're 8th.
3:44They're 8th. So if you go from something like 28th to 8th, there is necessarily going to be a massive shift in the perception of those players.
3:53And what's interesting to me is the biggest shift of all has not been around the wide receivers.
3:58If you go to the crowdsource data on keep trade cut, tight end, wide receiver, running back, there's some anchoring of this year to previous years.
4:07There's certainly a friction there where these players can only move so much because they came into the season with a particular perception.
4:14And most people that are evaluating these players are heavily influenced still by this perception that was built up from seasons past.
4:21That makes sense. That makes sense. Except, strangely, the quarterback position.
4:25Quarterback position, what you'll see on keep trade cut, is the position where the valuations have been shifting the most dramatically, which is the opposite of player profiler.
4:34Because with these quarterbacks, we have more data. If you're going to anchor any position, it's got to be the quarterback.
4:40We know with more certainty than any other position which quarterbacks are good and which quarterbacks are bad.
4:46And yet, on a crowdsource platform like keep trade cut, the quarterbacks are the position that is oscillating wildly.
4:52It's shifting dramatically from 2025 values to 2026 values.
4:55It's fascinating. And the place to start is Carolina because it's every position, whether it's quarterback, running back, wide receiver, there's something
5:02to talk about in Carolina where there's big movements.
5:05And whether or not what we're seeing through four weeks is real in Carolina is what's going to determine whether or not
5:12there's just this gross overvaluation of Panthers players now.
5:15Or that potentially there are services that are too far behind where Carolina is obviously going.
5:20And that's where I want to start. I think asking the question if the Panthers offense is real in 2026 is a
5:27great place to start and a great question. And I'll start it with this.
5:32This is my exact thoughts. Yes, but it hasn't hit its ceiling yet.
5:36And I say that because, again, you can pull a player profile right now.
5:40You can see everything on Bryce Young's page, it feels like, is top 10, if not top 5, in passing productivity, efficiency, passing opportunity.
5:48Like, the offense has taken a clear not one but two steps forward.
5:52And that's not considering the fact that they botched an early pick at wide receiver in Xavier Leggett.
5:58They botched an early pick in the last regime with Jonathan Mingo.
6:02And they've continued to press and go get Ted Rowe-McMillan.
6:05And that's obviously worked. They continued to believe in Jalen Coker.
6:08And he's just a difference maker for the situation he came from at Holy Cross.
6:13The point is that you thought this offense was going to be a lot more run heavy to protect the quarterback.
6:20And this offensive line coming into the season is what scared me away a little bit from any type of belief of,
6:27like, what I did have was, like, saying, okay, year three of Bryce Young with Dave Canales.
6:32We can see this thing take a step forward.
6:35We saw it in Seattle with Geno Smith with Dave Canales.
6:39We saw it in Tampa with Baker Mayfield and Dave Canales.
6:42And now in year three in Carolina, you're seeing Bryce Young get back to being.
6:47So he just had game 50 last week, career game number 50 against Detroit, right?
6:52And 70% passing, 330 yards against a defense that you should be doing that against.
6:57It's one of the bottom 10 back ends, bottom five back ends in the sport right now in Detroit.
7:03But here's the thing that really gets me, and when I say they haven't hit their ceiling yet, is that they came
7:10into the season, again, on the offensive side of the football.
7:13You're down, you're starting left tackle with Kim Oguanu.
7:16You're down, you're starting right tackle in Taylor Moten.
7:19You're down another interior offensive lineman in Brady Christensen.
7:22Like, your offensive line is depleted. You also went out and drafted a stretch flanker in Chris Brazel from Tennessee who you're
7:29like, all right, we got depth here. Okay, we also, you know, think Jonathan Brooks is going to be a big part of this offense.
7:37Like, they're down a lot of pieces on this offense, and they're still producing to this level.
7:43And on the defensive side of the ball, you got injuries as well.
7:47I mean, we don't need to talk about that because this is fantasy, but it's edge, it's corner, it's everywhere.
7:53And they're still producing. And as good as Atlanta has looked in the last two weeks, Carolina beat the snot out of them three weeks ago.
8:01And what it has the makings of is a NFC West offense in an NFC South division that we haven't seen produce
8:08an offense like this in five, six years. It feels like back to maybe Brady when Brady was in Tampa.
8:15It feels like the last time, I think, from the NFC South perspective that we had an offense that could produce at this high of a level.
8:23And Bryce is 25. Again, when you talk about it from a dynasty perspective, he's jumped up, what, seven or eight QB
8:31spots in the last month and a half. And I don't know if he'll ever get really up another grouping or another
8:38tier in dynasty, but I feel like he's in a really good spot where he's at.
8:43And this offense still has a ton of room to grow.
8:46The Panthers right now are the skeleton key of NFL projections.
8:50Our perception of the Bears defense was that they were awful.
8:53They can't play because they gave up all these points to the Panthers in week one and the Falcons.
8:59Our perception of the Falcons defense was tainted by that losing 34 to three.
9:04And then you look up and the Panthers are just rolling over teams.
9:08And the defenses that they had rolled over are then rising back up in the subsequent weeks.
9:13And it turns out, oh, no, the Falcons defense actually is not bad at all.
9:18Wait, what? So the Panthers did the Panthers did.
9:21So that is like transitive property squared. They beat these guys.
9:25They must be better than these guys because they beat these guys.
9:28But then these guys beat these guys. So then they're better than these guys.
9:33But then these guys lost to these guys. They can't be better than these.
9:37Wait a second. And if you can figure out what the Panthers are, if we knew what the Panthers are with 100
9:44percent certainty, we could solve a lot of these dilemmas because it's that they have been the greatest surprise across the board.
9:51Right. Their defense is not as good as we thought it would be.
9:56Their offensive line is not as good as we thought it would be.
10:00Their passing game is so much better than we thought it would be.
10:04They are breaking every assumption that we had about them.
10:07However, I'm not ready to say this is definitely the new Bryce Young.
10:11This is Bryce Young 2.0. This is first overall pick Bryce Young.
10:15When you go to keep trade cut, that is clearly the public perception of Bryce Young.
10:20Bryce Young on keep trade cut is now QB 10.
10:24QB 10. He is a he isn't the same.
10:26I can't with a straight face. I can't. I can't.
10:30He's he's ahead of Tyler shock, who is another player and another team we're going to be talking about in terms of exceeding expectations.
10:37The past attempts per game for the Saints is dwarfing every other team in the NFL, which is just great for us.
10:44So wherever Carolina is going, if you assume that the trend line for the Saints should hold the same trajectory, you know, based on the first four weeks.
10:53Well, then the Saints are going even higher. Right.
10:56If the Panthers are going to the stratosphere, the Saints are going to the moon.
11:01And yet somehow on keep trade cut, Young is ahead of shock and he's blown past all these players that are proven
11:08MVPs, 20 plus fantasy points per game. Jalen hurts deck Prescott.
11:12Justin Herbert. It's just bye bye. Everybody. I'm gone.
11:14Right. You have a quarterback in Jared Goff who was basically running the current Panthers offense the last three years.
11:21So we have three years of Jared Goff. We have four games of Bryce Young running the same offense and Bryce Young
11:28blows Pat is blowing past Jared Goff. And I just found that stunning.
11:32That was that was the stunning data point that I wanted to open the show with because the Panthers are, excuse me,
11:39were a great source of banking dynasty value this summer.
11:42We now know that we didn't know that a few weeks ago.
11:46We know that now because look where Bryce Young is.
11:49He is adjacent to Jaden Daniels. I and that adjacency is the best illustration of the difference between a service that's crowdsourced
11:56like keep trade cut and a service that is metrics based like player profiler where we have Jaden Daniels at QB four
12:03and we have Bryce Young at QB 18. So we're much slower to adjust these players, especially the quarterbacks than the crowdsourced services or the quote unquote public.
12:12And I find this imminently fascinating. I feel like it's very interesting because I think like you've said, like you look at
12:19the running back position, the running back position feels like the one that should be, you know, much more volatile.
12:26But the quarterback position, I mean, historically the last five years, I mean, we can go back and CJ Stroud's in the same conversation.
12:33He's at QB 20 right now overall. And it keeps trade cut.
12:37I remember a day, right? You probably remember this day as well when CJ Stroud hit QB one, right?
12:43Oh yeah. And Drake may the art of the quarterback position.
12:47You can look at a ton of these dudes and I don't, I don't think Bryce can get there.
12:53Like, I'm not saying he can, I'm not saying he's going to be some elite world beater, but I do think that
13:00the, the, the Jaden Daniels conversation that you bring up, because again, on keep trade cut, he's back to back with him.
13:07They're similar ages. I think you look at these two offenses.
13:11I can't, I can't. Both offenses, both offensive lines are in hellscape right now, but one of them at least has a
13:18group of younger bodies coming back, getting healthier. And you have a forward thinking, offensive minded coach in Carolina with intention and
13:25an, you know, a newer front office. Whereas like, I think Washington can be in the same ballpark, but I think it's more defensive minded.
13:33And I love Antonio Williams. And I think that Terry McLaurin's great, but he's over 30 and Stefan Diggs is now hurt, but he's over 30.
13:41And there's not all in the running back room.
13:44Like when Austin Eckler comes off the couch, he's doing podcasts and then he gets up, gets on the football field on Sunday.
13:51And he looks like a better running back than Rashad white and Ja'Cory McCroskey, Merritt and K-Tron Allen.
13:57And he relegates K-Tron Allen to getting cut. Like there's problems in an offense like that.
14:02So, and again, I'm not trying to push down Jaden Daniels, just saying like, I think there's a lot more problems, not
14:09even considering the injury factor with Jaden Daniels. Now that also come into that conversation that make it interesting.
14:15But again, I just, as much as I just talked to Bryce Young, I don't think I could even get to, again,
14:22you're talking, I don't think I'm getting to Daniels.
14:25I don't think I'm getting to, I don't think, obviously I'm not getting to May.
14:30I'm not getting to. What are we, what are we?
14:33This is a crazy conversation. And the fact that he's blown through like the, the Knicks hurts dart tier.
14:39No, no, no. The Knicks hurt dart tier. Hurts has been struggling.
14:43Darts hurt again. Bo Knicks might stink. Like that grouping, at least like you have the Konami factor in all those guys.
14:50You have the 225 pound, you have the competent franchise thing built in.
14:54Now I would consider the giants now with Harbaugh there.
14:57I think you have those three, those three programs like that.
15:01And the fact that he just blew through that thing, like nothing in just a couple of weeks of, of really good output, but not like elite level.
15:10It's not like he's, it's not like he's, it's not like he's scoring 35 points a game.
15:15It's not like he's got, he's got, you know, Jameer Gibbs and Jamison and Amon Ra and Laporta on his offense.
15:22So you can write it off and you can say, yeah, look at this.
15:27Or you can say, look at this offensive line.
15:29Like Detroit has had in the last couple of years until now that's like, oh, boom, you know, all pro pro bowl, all pro like across the board.
15:38You know what I'm saying? Like, so I do think there's a little bit of consensus got a little head on Bryce
15:45Young, but well, I don't think it's terrible. Well, half of their games have been prolific shootouts against Caleb Williams and the Detroit offense, which makes sense.
15:54You're either going to be in comeback mode like they were against the bears, or it's just going to be a back
16:01and forth sprint to the finish against the track meet, if you will, against the lions.
16:06So that's, that's half their games. Half their games are track meet style games.
16:11Most games in the NFL are not track meet style like that.
16:15So the first four weeks already with the schedule, certainly helping to propel Bryce Young.
16:19Why are the no breaks on his perception? The biggest reason by far.
16:24And this is something that we talked about at the beginning of this show, the inception of this show many, many years ago with Nate Liss.
16:32And this was one of our original arguments was how important is draft capital?
16:36Right. How important is draft capital to the equation?
16:39How important, how sticky is draft capital with player valuations?
16:42And the bottom line is Bryce Young was the one-on-one.
16:46So when Bryce Young is exceeding expectations, because he was the first pick in the draft, there's an assumption that the NFL
16:53is an efficient evaluator of talent, which we know they're not, but that one-on-one carries a lot of weight.
16:59And so everyone that is heavily influenced by draft capital with their player evaluation system, which is waiting for a reason with
17:06Bryce Young, where a guy like Brock Purdy, he's climbing, but it takes him years.
17:11He does what Bryce Young has been doing for years, having one of the best EPAs per play for a quarterback this season in the last decade.
17:19Again, like this is what he does. He is near the top of the league in EPA per play for multiple seasons.
17:26But because he wasn't the one-on-one, he was the inverse of the one-on-one.
17:30He was the last pick in the draft, not the first pick in the draft.
17:35He was Mr. Irrelevant. It takes him years to earn it, whereas Bryce Young can get to a similar place, one tier
17:42down on keep trade cut from Brock Purdy at this point with just four games.
17:47And so there is this draft capital bias. The reason I call it a bias is because there is an over-weighting of
17:54draft capital that has happened for the last 10 years in Dynasty.
17:58When we started this show, not quite 10 years ago, but almost, this was a great source of value in Dynasty was
18:05the over-weighting of draft capital and player valuations with Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:09being the best example. There's a lot of rumors that everyone in the chat basically wants to talk Marv.
18:15I was going to say, you might want to hit the breaking news sound effect if you want at some point.
18:22Did he get traded? He's officially been traded. Wow!
18:25Let's, this happened live? But it says, it says, it says, this is, again, this is kind of funny.
18:31I don't know if I've seen this before. Adam Schefter breaks the Arizona Cardinals are finalizing a deal to trade Marvin Harrison.
18:38Sources tell me and rap sheet. No team listed yet, but they're saying it's done per rap sheet and Schefter.
18:44That was, I don't know, Chiefs, Jets. I think it's Jets.
18:48You think it's Jets? Why do you think it's Jets?
18:51I think he needs to go somewhere where there's some comfortability and somebody that he's been with before and knows, and Garrett Wilson is no better.
18:59I mean, they have Adni Mitchell there, who's kind of that same position, but Adni Mitchell's a little expendable.
19:05They traded for him a year and a half ago.
19:08I could see them bringing in Marv, getting Marv right next to Garrett Wilson.
19:13That'd be a very interesting duo to have. But then you can also bring up the Chiefs.
19:18The Chiefs need wide receiver help pretty damn bad.
19:21What's a good comp for Marv? Is he the Josh Rosen of wide receivers?
19:26Oh, God. Top 10 pick. Top 10 pick, and the team moves on about as fast as you can possibly move on.
19:33It's hard to move on from a top 10 wide receiver this fast.
19:37Was Tavon Austin traded this fast? Oh, I gotta think.
19:40What was Devontae Parker? What is his comp? What was Devontae Parker?
19:44Wasn't he traded? Dude, dude, this player profiler. That has been his comp.
19:48This is not new. His comp has been Devontae Parker for as long as I can remember.
19:54And I take so much pride in. This is one of the things I take some of the most pride in.
20:00If someone saw me at the grocery store or restaurant, came up to me, the greatest compliment that you can give, because
20:07it's certainly the greatest compliment that I've received on email or anytime.
20:11Anytime. You just need to enjoy it. The Devontae Parker comp.
20:15It just said, bye-bye. Right? He was a dolphin.
20:18He was drafted by the Dolphins. I guarantee that Devontae Parker stuck with the Dolphins longer than Marvin Harrison Jr.
20:24stuck with the Cardinals. Devontae did last longer. So here is what history tells us right here.
20:29Mike Williams, the 2005 Detroit Lion, the only wide receiver comp, traded to Oakland in year three for a fourth rounder after never cracking the starting lineup.
20:38Trent Richardson at running back. Obviously, Browns to Colts in year two.
20:42That's it. Josh Rosen, Cardinals to Dolphins in year two.
20:45And Trey Lance, 49ers to Cowboys in year three for a fourth.
20:49Other ones outside the window. Oh, no, no, no.
20:52So he's exactly Trey Lance. This is year three.
20:55He was a top five pick and he was traded in year three.
20:59So no, the comp is not Josh Rosen. I apologize to Marvin Harrison Jr.
21:03That was too harsh of a comp. I went straight to the fastest traded player in the top 10 in skill position history.
21:11I apologize to Marvin Harrison Jr. And especially I apologize to his family.
21:15I want to make sure I apologize to his family.
21:18That is not an accurate comp. He is not the Josh Rosen of wide receivers.
21:23He is, in fact, with deadly accuracy. Just like this Devontae Parker comp.
21:27What just an unbelievable guy. I mean, size, athletic profile, history of production of the NFL.
21:32It's just it's crazy, crazy. He was also Devontae Parker.
21:35Very productive when he played at Louisville, by the way.
21:39Just like Marvin Harrison Jr. Was very productive. We should all be reminded.
21:43He was very productive at Ohio State. But one for one, Marvin Harrison Jr.
21:47Is the Trey Lance of wide receivers. That is what he is.
21:51Let me give you one more. So the Shefter just tweeted back, by the way.
21:56Oh, hold on. Hold on. The one certainty is that Marvin Harrison's time in Arizona is done.
22:01Arizona feels comfortable enough to know it can and will trade Harrison, which is why he will be inactive on Sunday.
22:08But no Harrison trade will be completed until after Sunday's games are played, which means that's just documentation wise.
22:14I'm sure they'll continue to talk through the day.
22:17But and then the other thought here is the only other player that you could conceivably comp him to at the wide
22:24receiver position is a guy that was rather prolific in college and was a top five pick.
22:29Right. Right. Because Marv was for this other player was number four exactly 10 years prior.
22:35They both went forth overall 10 years apart. Ready for this one?
22:38Yeah. This player in his first three NFL seasons, 2,400 yards, 17 touchdowns.
22:43Marvin Harrison, 1,500 yards, 13 touchdowns. Sammy Watkins. He's not the Sammy Watkins of modern day receivers.
22:48I would say he is absolutely if we because he's not in the database, we don't have I don't think we have Lions Mike Williams in the database.
22:57Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. His closest comp historically is Mike Williams.
23:00He is Mike Williams. I mean, he's been more productive in the NFL than Mike Williams.
23:06But if you're comparing him to strictly wide receivers and wide receiver career arcs, his closest comp is actually Mike Williams.
23:12As good as the Devante Parker comp is, Mike Williams might be an even better comp for him.
23:18And if you had to comp him to any skill position player, it would be Trey Lance.
23:24Wow. This is great. This is so crazy. But again, this was draft capital driving the valuation instead of the scouting report,
23:31instead of the metrics, especially after year one, man.
23:33After year one in the NFL, data was coming in that this guy is no Malik neighbors.
23:39Just put it that way. Dude, we can get off of this topic, but man, remember those conversations.
23:45People are like, you can't put neighbors ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
23:48I'm saying that because I remember it so vividly.
23:51That makes me smile so much. Yeah, because it wasn't even that many weeks into the season.
23:57The rookie, it's just the same conversation we're having now or similar conversation we're having now.
24:02We're like, hey, we have four weeks of data.
24:05Yeah. Malik neighbors is elite. Marvin Harrison Jr. Is in trouble.
24:08No one wants to hear that. Four weeks in, no one wants to hear that.
24:13But it's like, okay, you shouldn't. If you want to anchor yourself to draft capital that strongly, then you're going to set
24:20yourself up for this kind of fall where you're holding a Marvin Harrison Jr.
24:25And it's as apparent as it's ever been to everyone that he's going down, that it's never going to happen.
24:31Like if you didn't know before today, you certainly know today because the team that's closest to him that sees him every
24:38day has just completely pulled the ripcord. They're out.
24:41One potential avenue. If you were going to pull one parachute to safety for Marvin Harrison Jr.
24:46And I know we're doing this live. It's kind of derailing our show right now.
24:51But Schefter just tweeted again that one team that has talked is Houston.
24:55And then a source he has in Houston says, in quote, I can't confirm or deny at this time.
25:01And of course, if you'd link it to Houston, the quarterback in 2022 for the Ohio State Buckeyes was CJ Stroud.
25:08The leading wide receiver was sophomore wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who outproduced a Mechak Buka, JSN.
25:14Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to the Houston Texans.
25:17Damn. That's where he's going. As soon as you say, I cannot confirm nor deny.
25:21That's a lock. I mean, what? That's like straight out of the CIA playbook.
25:26We can neither confirm nor deny tonight, but U.S.
25:29forces are involved in the uprising in the country of Guatemala.
25:32It's like he's going to the Texans. As soon as you use that phrase, it's over.
25:37Holy cow. Well, again, more evidence that he's gone.
25:40It's over. He's going to zero. I mean, he can't compete with Nico Collins in that offense.
25:46Somebody somewhere in Houston doesn't know what they're doing and thinks that they can resurrect this guy's career.
25:51And we saw this actually very recently on Hard Knocks where John Schneider pulls the players that played at Alabama.
25:58Hey, this Terran Arnold, is he a good guy or a bad guy?
26:02Right. And he's a good guy. He's a nice guy.
26:05You know, I do nothing wrong with him. Hey, we got along just fine.
26:10See, didn't have a problem. Didn't have a problem with him.
26:13No problems. He's like, OK, well, I guess we'll we'll sign him.
26:17No problem. Right. So that clearly the Texans reportedly don't respect C.J.
26:21Stroud at all, have no interest in giving him any money, but they're going to listen to him when they're evaluating Marvin Harrison Jr.
26:29And that makes sense. Like he had firsthand knowledge of Marvin Harrison Jr.
26:33at the peak of his powers in college. You would go to the source and say, hey, what was it like to play with him?
26:41How good is he? He's on the market. They don't want a lot for him.
26:45Should we take a chance on him? Is he wired the right way?
26:50C.J. Stroud's opinion matters. That's probably the only time they think his opinion matters in Houston.
26:55Otherwise, like anything else you have to say, C.J.?
26:58Actually, you know what? Never mind. Get out of here.
27:01Like we just needed that one little bit of info.
27:04You know, just leave where our team is. What are the Texans?
27:08What's their record? Sources are saying they're own for.
27:11There's a team that just did not expect would be owned for the Houston Texans with that defense.
27:17I just didn't see those weapons. If anyone saw that coming, congratulations.
27:20I didn't. Certainly, we know following Houston media because Cody and I listened to Houston Sports Talk Radio.
27:26They didn't see it coming. They're clearly surprised and very, very, very frustrated and disappointed in Houston.
27:32Specifically in C.J. Stroud. And getting Marvin Harrison Jr.
27:34is not going to wallpaper over this thing. It's not going to.
27:38It's like a thin coat of paint. It's no effect.
27:41Marvin Harrison Jr. Well, at least he could sit behind Nico Collins.
27:45Sit behind Kayshawn Booty. I'd rather have Kayshawn Booty.
27:48Kayshawn Booty actually is similar to Marvin Harrison Jr., but with draft capital.
27:52Kayshawn Booty was incredibly well regarded. In fact, at one point, they were similarly rated prospects.
27:58If you go back to high school, it was Booty's going to LSU and Ohio State's getting Marv.
28:03And then Booty flamed out in college and fell to the sixth round.
28:07At least Marvin Harrison Jr. was able to keep it together throughout his college career and get the big first round paycheck.
28:14Booty never got that because he couldn't keep it together in college.
28:18They aren't that dissimilar. Their play styles are similar.
28:21It's just that Kayshawn Booty is 5'11", 195, but he plays the game as an ex-receiver.
28:26Marvin Harrison Jr. is like 6'5", 220, and plays the game like a 5'11", 195-pound wide receiver.
28:32So Booty plays the game as if Marvin Harrison Jr.
28:35should. And Marvin Harrison Jr. plays the game as Kayshawn Booty, really.
28:39Kayshawn Booty actually is impressive. When you watch him play, you can't believe that he's only 5'11", 195.
28:45He plays bigger than his frame. Marvin Harrison Jr.
28:47plays much smaller than his frame. And again, these two guys were like the premium high school recruits at the same time
28:54and had these wayward careers where they crossed paths and then they diverged.
28:59One was a premium NFL pick. One was an afterthought.
29:02Now they've reconverged and they're back together again in Houston as bottom betas of a passing game.
29:07That's where they found themselves. It's basically like a flushing sound you can hear with Booty and Marvin Harrison Jr.
29:14going down together in Houston. One question. Do you think the shower narrative hurts Nico Collins in Dynasty?
29:19Age 27 at the apex. Top 12 wide receiver in Dynasty right now.
29:24When he gets healthy, he looks like an Adonis.
29:26He looks like an alpha. An old school alpha with CJ Stroud.
29:30Now you got the shower narrative brought in here.
29:33Does CJ Stroud forcing six to eight targets a game to Marv?
29:37Even maybe though he shouldn't. It has to impact a little bit on Nico.
29:42Let me say this very clearly to you and to the entire Sonic Truth audience.
29:46And by the way, what a treat to have everybody live with us.
29:50It's early Saturday morning. We have 700 live viewers.
29:53Hello, everybody. And they're asking some great questions. We barely got into these comments because this Marvin Harrison Jr.
29:59News drops live while we're talking about Bryce Young.
30:02If for whatever reason you change your opinion of Nico Collins and his Dynasty value because of Marvin Harrison Jr.'s arrival in
30:09Houston, imminent arrival in Houston, you're an idiot. I just want to say that very clearly.
30:14I don't want to contort my words in any way.
30:18I want to make sure this is crystal clear to everyone in this audience.
30:22If you change your assessment of the valuation of Nico Collins and Dynasty League at all because of the likely arrival of
30:29Marvin Harrison Jr., you are an idiot. Just like if the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr.
30:34made you think, oh, it was never going to happen with Michael Wilson.
30:38I am smiling ear to ear knowing that R.C.
30:41Fisher is smiling ear to ear knowing that Michael Wilson is smiling ear to ear.
30:46Michael Wilson won. And guess what Michael Wilson and Nico Collins have in common?
30:51Third round picks that had to earn it. That's the difference, right?
30:55Michael Wilson and Nico Collins spent two years in the NFL toiling away as third round picks trying to earn snaps and
31:02the ability to run routes and catch footballs. And they did it.
31:05Took them a couple of years, but they both got there.
31:09And this is why we love this game. This game is unique in that players like Michael Wilson and players like Nico
31:16Collins can square off against a Marvin Harrison Jr.
31:19In practice after practice, putting it down on tape, putting it down on tape, putting it down on tape.
31:25And eventually they become undeniable. One guy gets the contract extension.
31:28One guy gets kicked out of town. Even though the media, the fans, the public were all in on this guy and
31:35didn't give a shit about Michael Wilson when he landed in Arizona.
31:39Didn't give a shit about Nico Collins when he landed in Houston.
31:43But this is one of the great meritocracies in our society.
31:47That's one of the reasons why we're so compelled by it.
31:50Why we love it so much? Because these things can happen because Adam Thielen can happen because Jalen Coker can happen.
31:57And because a Devante Parker and a Marvin Harrison Jr.
32:00get exactly what they deserve out of this game, except the rookie contract.
32:04They can't take the rookie contract away from these guys.
32:07They do get the millions from the rookie contract.
32:10That is the one. That is the one exception is the rookie contract is okay.
32:15Okay, that's your ticket into the game. And then the meritocracy takes over.
32:19But okay, you do get to bank that ticket for whatever you got to the show.
32:24Thielen and Coker start at zero. Marvin Parker get to start at a high level.
32:29And we get to watch them squandered away. And I'm not sorry about that.
32:34I don't feel bad at all. Because especially with a Marvin Harrison Jr., everything was there for him.
32:39He had the college production. He had coaches on top of coaches helping him, assisting him, I'm sure, in whatever he needed.
32:47There was someone always standing there ready to caddy for him, playbooks, any help he needed, training, anything, nutrition, anything along the way.
32:54It was all there for him, a resource for him.
32:57Instead of having to earn a job living out of his car, find some college somewhere that would let him play football like a Rashad White, right?
33:06Just a different. That's why you respect guys like that.
33:09And when they have success in this league, it's just very cool to see.
33:13And it kind of gives me goosebumps. And it's why I'm always going to be an NFL fan.
33:19They're never going to get me off this sport for that reason.
33:23This, today, what has happened with Marvin Harrison Jr.
33:26is why I love this sport. That's all I got.
33:29I don't, I'm not going to add a bunch to Marvin Harrison.
33:33I think we've, uh, we've beaten this thing in.
33:36He's, uh, probably not even worth us talking about at this point because he's not going to do anything, at least for the next couple of weeks.
33:44He's not going to do anything ever again. And if anyone thinks this is some kind of lifeline and it is thinking
33:52about trading for him, don't, this is bad. He is going to collapse in our dynasty ranking.
33:57He went from a starting wide receiver with a locked in role in a team that ostensibly believed in him to being
34:04a washed up has been wide receiver with one transaction.
34:07NFL teams lie to us every day. They can't lie when they sign players, when they draft players and when they trade players.
34:15So this is very important information. And as fast as Marvin Harrison Jr.
34:19has been falling down our dynasty rankings, he didn't, he wasn't, he didn't even start at the same level as others.
34:25We had, we were more, we were more modulated at the very beginning with him.
34:30And then quickly we moved him to a place that we got criticized for how, how quickly we, we dropped him down
34:37into a tier with, let's see, where, where, where do we have him right now?
34:42Let's, let's just take a quick look. DK Metcalf.
34:45We put him in the DK Metcalf tier very quickly.
34:48And that was, there was objections to that. He's going to fall below that.
34:53As of, as of today, he's, he's no longer in the same tier as DK Metcalf.
34:58I mean, that, that was yesterday. Check the dynasty rankings, go to player profiler, subscribe.
35:03If you have a desire to win dynasty leagues, your first priority should be subscribing to dynasty deluxe.
35:08And then you're going to be able to see, you're going to be able to see how far he's fallen, where he is.
35:16Quinton Johnston, Michael Pittman, Chris bell, Cortland Sutton. No, Chris bell.
35:19I, it would take multiple Marvin Harrison juniors to get Chris bell off me.
35:24Are you kidding me? Chris bell is in a completely different tier, much higher.
35:28Chris bell has real potential to be something in this league.
35:32I was going to list off like four names, but that was where I started and I was going to go South,
35:39but yes, we are going to get the show back on track.
35:43I think the last show we did was two and a half hours.
35:47And because I had a late night by the fire last night, I thought I wasn't able to do another two and a half hour show.
35:55This has definitely fired me up and we have an, an aggressive agenda before we turn our attention back to the Panthers.
36:02We didn't even finish that conversation. One player that I want to make sure that we highlight who's currently adjacent to Marvin Harrison jr.
36:10Who is about to be, you know, have double the lifetime value of Marvin Harrison jr.
36:15After what we learned today that I want to make sure you're trading for in dynasty.
36:20There's two wide receivers that I want very, very badly in dynasty.
36:24You must trade for two. Okay. They're very different.
36:27One guy is playing well and he's currently on a historic pace, specifically looking at a metric target share and that's Carnell tape.
36:34So we're going to talk about him later, but I just want to make sure that we just in case, just in
36:41case we more news breaks, we can't get back to it.
36:45Just want to make sure everyone has on their agenda trade for Carnell Tate.
36:49Now trade for Carnell Tate yesterday. There is a incredible disparity between Carnell Tate's ranking on player profilers dynasty rankings and where
36:56he is on keep trade cut the consensus. And you might say, oh, well, well, that's because that's crowdsourced.
37:02What about the trade sourced? Oh no, no. Whether you look at trades that are happening, whether you look at crowdsourced, it's the same.
37:10There's like a 10 spot disparity, which is incredibly meaningful when you're talking about wide receiver eight versus wide receiver 18 between where we are and the consensus.
37:19And so that would be the number one exploit right now in dynasty is Carnell Tate.
37:24Another one that is very interesting that you won't hear anyone talking about right now because this guy is off the radar.
37:31He's on IR, but he is now officially moved ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
37:36In the dynasty rankings. And that's why I want to mention him is Jacoby lane.
37:40Jacoby lane, the clock is ticking for him to come off IR and Lamar will be back.
37:46And eventually we're going to look up and in Baltimore, it's going to be the Zay Flowers and Jacoby lane show.
37:53He is truly talented. He has had to work for it.
37:56At no point was this guy putting up video game numbers in college.
38:00And yet he shows up in the meritocracy that we call the NFL and the Ravens are calling him the greatest camp player in the history of Ravens.
38:09Rookies had the greatest camp of any Ravens rookie ever.
38:12According to people inside the building in Baltimore, he's been stashed on IR to start the season.
38:18No one's thinking about him. Everyone's talking about Marvin Harrison Jr.
38:21Right now. There's no one in our chat mentioning Jacoby lane.
38:25Everyone started the show even before the Schefter tweet dropped.
38:28Wanted us talking about Marvin Harrison Jr. when they should be talking about, if you're talking about wide receivers outside the top
38:3525, you want to talk about a wide receiver.
38:38That'll give you actual edge in dynasty. That's very attainable right now.
38:42That is Jacoby lane. Here's my, here, here's what I'll give you on Jacoby lane.
38:47Why, why I like him. One is he's not developed yet.
38:50He's not physically developed yet to be what he will end up being.
38:54Um, my full belief coming out of the draft this last year was he should have went back to school.
39:01Um, USC has a ton of young white, true freshmen, wide receivers.
39:05I think they got three of them right now in that offense.
39:08Um, alongside Tendrick Hines is a sophomore and Jacoby lane would have been a guy that came back and could have easily
39:15went for a thousand, 1400, somewhere in their double digit touchdowns again.
39:19Like he did his sophomore season and would have been a first round conversation type of a guy.
39:25Not obviously in the Jeremiah Smith conversation, but like Charlie Becker, Reed Harris, these two bigger bodies, six, four wide receivers that
39:32are coming out this year from Indiana and Arizona state respectively.
39:36Jacoby lane would have been in that conversation. Um, but he decided to declare early, which was questionable because his season regressed.
39:43And he obviously played with the Blitnikoff award winner, Makai lemon, his comp, we comped him to Nico Collins coming out and the athleticism.
39:50Um, like it's one of those things that like, yes, obviously you can watch it on tape.
39:56You can watch it in the games, but when you see him in person, it's one of those guys that just like
40:03looks different, but you can tell that he's not quite ready yet.
40:07And when he does get ready, if he fulfills the prophecy of getting there, he's going to be a problem.
40:13And that was like when Nico came out of Michigan, Nico was physically matured, physically ready to go.
40:19Like his body kind of reminds you of like a Jaden Higgins was a, a bigger guy that was a little bit
40:26leaner through the torso and like leaner through his entire body.
40:29And like, that's kind of what Jacoby was, but even more like he kind of like, think about like a, think about
40:36how, like how much of a rail Jerome Simpson was, but Jerome Simpson was only like six, one.
40:42This guy's like six, four, six, five, right? Not many comps on not many comps on him and the upside and the
40:49ability for a team like this with Lamar Jackson, whose efficiency has, I would say gotten better from a completion percentage standpoint.
40:56I think he's got a career high and completion percentage is up 12 points in his career.
41:02Lamar Jackson is, and his rushing is doing this in the, in the exact opposite direction, right?
41:07He's got career highs in yards per attempt, career highs in completion percentage, career highs in protecting the football, but he's running less.
41:14And when you have like a Zay Flowers who leads the, leads the fricking league and yak and Mark Andrews kind of hasn't done a lot.
41:23And obviously nobody else in that room. Like, I think that leaves a wide open door if we're going to get again,
41:30cause I think this is a huge question of how much longer do we have Lamar for a guy like Jacoby Myers
41:37could unlock another three years for Lamar. Jacoby lane, Jacoby lane.
41:40Sorry. If they get Jacoby Myers, that, that wouldn't be bad, right?
41:44They need depth. It's currently it's Rashad Bateman in the wide receiver two spot until Jacoby lane returns because Jacoby lane isn't as girthy as Nico Collins.
41:53And it was just a different player in college.
41:56It there's, there's a wide range of comps for neat, for Jacoby lane, including, I think even closer comp just based on
42:03his college resume and his body type and his athleticism.
42:06And this just goes to show of players can go either direction, right?
42:10Terrence Marshall, Terrence Marshall, right? So you don't know the guys land in the league.
42:15It depends on how they're wired, right? If you just look at their production and athleticism and physical profile, it's like Jaden
42:22Higgins, Nico Collins, Justin Hunter, it's Terrence Marshall. Gosh, man, the Terrence Marshall one.
42:27It's not good. It's when you see it, you can't unsee it.
42:30And his job from now on is to make us unsee it.
42:34Yeah. Is to, is to, is to craft himself into Nico Collins to earn the Nico Collins comp.
42:40And he will, as soon as he starts producing in a way that Terrence Marshall couldn't, he's going to immediately earn that
42:47Nico Collins comp because he's not that far away.
42:50There's like, it's like a, it's like a spatter of potential options to comp him to currently based on the data we
42:57have, because, uh, what the Ravens are saying about his camp is not factoring into the comp.
43:02He could easily go. And it's, it's actually, it's a, it's a straight line actually, right?
43:07When you, when you would just look at the array of data, it's a straight line where you just show, show a
43:15potential to be wired the right way along. If you can demonstrate that as soon as you start to demonstrate that boom, you immediately flip that comp.
43:23And now you're Nico and you're no longer Terrence Marshall.
43:26It's very, it's the Ravens are a fascinating team as well because of this Lamar dilemma.
43:31I don't have a Lamar dilemma. I've come to terms with what Lamar is, but I can tell there's a dilemma based
43:39on the reactions that I get when I trade Lamar.
43:42Cause I take over 20 orphans in 20 days as a stunt on this show.
43:47And I have a bunch of Lamar on these teams.
43:50Why? Because Lamar melted down last year and those teams get orphaned.
43:54Like he played well enough. So this teams didn't get the one-on-one, but didn't make the playoffs.
43:59And so those teams naturally get orphaned. That's why I open up a team.
44:03I'm like, I probably have Lamar Jackson on this team when I take over an orphan.
44:09And I'm like, what am I, what am I going to do with this guy?
44:13And I put them on the block. Typically, if, if, if this is not a win now team, put them on the
44:20block, even if it is a win now team, because there's just pretty dramatic disparity, like the two biggest disparities in the
44:27player profiler dynasty rankings at quarterback and the public consensus on keep trade cut.
44:32It's Lamar Jackson and Bryce young where Lamar Jackson is QB three.
44:36The public still has Lamar Jackson as if it's 2022, right?
44:39It's like, this is not four years ago. I remember where I was, what I was doing in 2022.
44:45It ain't 2022 anymore. Cody is 2026. I don't understand this.
44:49It doesn't make any sense. 13th player overall in startups.
44:52Excuse me. Oh, it's a super flex startup. He's super flex, shmooper flex.
44:56What are you, what Lamar? Do you know how old he is?
45:00Do you know where he's trending? What are we even doing?
45:04I'll tell you player profiler. I'd be curious where roster watch has him.
45:08Like just like, I'm curious where roster watch has Bryce young.
45:11We have Lamar Jackson at QB 10. And when I do deals with these orphans, I am at most talking to two
45:18teams that might need a quarterback and be in the market for Lamar.
45:23But more often than not, it's one team. It's one team that's in win now mode and needs a quarterback because most
45:30of the teams that are in win now mode, guess what?
45:33They already have quarterbacks. So there's this fallacy. This market fallacy marketplace fallacy around Lamar Jackson as if you can just dangle
45:40Lamar Jackson and super flex and get multiple 20, 27 firsts that doesn't exist because the win now teams don't have multiple 20, 27 firsts.
45:48You can't split Lamar Jackson up into a derivative, right?
45:51There's no index where I can just put Lamar Jackson on an index and just get back a 1.76, 20, 27 first round picks.
45:59That's not how it works. You need a market.
46:02You only have 11 others in your league that can potentially be your market.
46:06And you look around and then quickly that market is reduced to one or two people at most.
46:12I'm in leagues where there is no market for Lamar Jackson.
46:16I believe it. Where the teams at the top have quarterbacks.
46:19And that's one of the reasons they're in the top.
46:22They're at the top because they already have Josh Allen.
46:26They're at the top of the league because they have a better version of Lamar Jackson.
46:31So why the hell they even want Lamar Jackson?
46:34They're fine. They got Purdy and Josh Allen. Why the hell would that team want to trade for Lamar Jackson?
46:40And a lot of those teams have already traded their 20, 27 pick also.
46:44So they don't even have the firepower to get Lamar Jackson.
46:48If they even wanted Lamar Jackson. And then the teams that are rebuilding don't want Lamar Jackson because they see what we
46:55see, which is a player that scores a lot of his fantasy points with his legs.
47:00And those legs are betraying him. And he is quickly becoming a pocket passer.
47:05What if Lamar Jackson ran at the same rate, rushed at the same rate as Jared Goff?
47:10Where would he be in fantasy football? Because the legs have a time clock.
47:15Well, I mean, they've already hit. The clock has already hit.
47:18He's like last year. If you would have played a full season, he missed four games.
47:23If he plays a full season, his numbers are completely cut in half from what they were in 2023.
47:29Like he had 148 carries in 2023. Last year ended up with 67.
47:33He probably hit 75. So he's cut in half this year.
47:37He's on pace for 80. He's not going to play this weekend.
47:41So he's probably going to not quite hit 80 carries.
47:44Like that's completely cut in half from what you saw earlier in his career.
47:48176, 159, 148, 140. Like, and even some of those, some of those, like he had 133 in a season.
47:55He didn't even play. He played 12 games. So got a smash trade right here in the chat.
48:01High class scumbag. Nice. Nice. That's a great team name.
48:04Look at his avatar. Well done. His avatar is a, a skeleton wearing an 1876 tuxedo with a top hat drinking whiskey.
48:11What an incredible aesthetic. This is the greatest aesthetic in the history of the Sonic Truth live viewing audience.
48:17We're on YouTube player profiler. Now sold Lamar to a rebuilder, to a rebuilder, someone rebuilding that.
48:22Okay. If you're rebuilding. Idiot. Pro tip. One of the last players you should ever seek out.
48:28It's a 30 old Konami. Is Lamar effing Jackson.
48:31Well, it depends. It depends. If, if you have the body of Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, you can be a Konami QB out to age 35.
48:39Ben Roethlisberger was running around for the vast majority of his career.
48:43Then he turned like 37 and suddenly he looked like he was running around in two feet of water.
48:49Right. Famously. I don't remember where I heard this.
48:52Ben Roethlisberger runs like a skyscraper. That's a good, that's a good one.
48:56When he, yeah. What's his running style? Skyscraper is his running style.
49:00How, if you were to move a skyscraper, that's, that's how Ben Roethlisberger moves on the football field.
49:06I thought that was genius. High class scumbag dumps Lamar gets back young Lamar, Jaden Daniels, right?
49:11All the same problems, all the same skills, five years younger, Jaden Daniels, four years younger.
49:17Actually, he also got a 20, 28 second rounder.
49:19Why not? Always just ask for a second rounder.
49:22You can't get a 20, 27 second rounder anymore because people are treating them like they treated 20, 26 first rounders.
49:29Get 28. Don't care. Just get the 20, 28 second.
49:32Just ask for whatever you can ask for. Get a 20, get something, some pick.
49:37People hate this comment, but 20, 28 is going to be just as good as 20, 27.
49:42Oh, we know this be the case. We've had a well-regarded classes that leaked talent, leaked prospect value because those players ended
49:49up getting hurt and coming out the next year, going back to school, coming out the next year.
49:55So it's almost like the exhaust from the class or like pieces like of a, you know, when you see, when you
50:02see the space shuttle going up in the air or a rocket going up there, you see all this debris coming off
50:09the rocket, that talent debris coming off the 20, 27 class, the rocket ship that is a 20, 27 class is then
50:16is going to find itself in the 20, 28 class.
50:20It's going to be a great class just because of that.
50:23Just the exhaust from the 20, 27 class will make the 20, 28 class good.
50:28So that 20, 28 second is like chef's kiss.
50:31Just put the cherry on top of the deal.
50:34Just ask for that little bit of sugar chaser.
50:37Just wait. I think we have a deal, but just, I hate giving up Lamar.
50:41If I think I need a 20, 28 second just to make the deal happen.
50:46I really want to give him to you. You deserve him.
50:50You should have him. You should take Lamar and, and I guess rebuild.
50:54Normally I would say you should go in the league, but rebuild.
50:58And that's not it though. He got the, he got the 20, 28 as the sugar on top, the always with the
51:05second or third rounder as a sugar on top in every negotiation and dynasty.
51:09Plus the throw in the sleeper throw in. Can you guess the player that high class fantasy high class scumbag?
51:16Guess the player that he was able to get thrown into this deal.
51:20It's pretty good job. The irony here is rich.
51:23The, because it is Lamar Jackson's weapon. Future number two.
51:26If you're, especially if you're rebuilding, wouldn't you want to get the young rising star wide receiver tethered to the quarterback you're trading for?
51:34What on earth are you doing? High class scumbag sold Lamar to get Jaden Daniels, a 20, 28 second and Jacoby lane.
51:41Amazing. That ties it all together. That's a bow on top right there.
51:45That's he just tidy little bow. We have Jaden Daniels much higher than Lamar Jackson.
51:50Why? Because age matters and dynasty. You take a similar profile.
51:53One guy's 25. You want guys 29. I'll take the 25 year old, I think, but no, no.
51:59You look at where the public has Lamar. It's as if he's 26.
52:03I don't understand it. This is the, this is the definition of an inefficient marketplace where you have Lamar at the QB
52:10three and you have Bryce young at QB 10.
52:13Can I ask you a question with the Lamar thing here?
52:16Yeah. So as you've been talking through it, I've been trying to look up like some historical career arcs for Lamar Jackson,
52:23majority of guys that saw their, like, you know, that high had pretty high output rushing in the early part of their
52:30career are bigger dudes like Dante, Cam Newton, Steve McNair.
52:34So not really great comps. Donovan McNabb even comes in a little bit here, but the one that like best case scenario for Lamar Jackson, right?
52:42Where you had the early career rushing, you have the athleticism, but you also have a more slender body.
52:48You could potentially be walking into an opportunity with more weaponry, not quite to this level, but, um, Randall Cunningham, Randall Cunningham.
52:55Again, his, his output, like it was, he was obviously in Philadelphia at injuries, missed seasons here and there retired actually at
53:02age 33 came back at age 34 to Minnesota, had that one big year in Minnesota, but his rushing was completely neutered.
53:09Um, at the point where like, so age 29 season, which is where Lamar's at right now, the last three, this is
53:16again, a different era of the sport. So the numbers are going to sound wildly different.
53:21But again, this is like Randall Cunningham Cunningham's like, Oh gee of this style.
53:26We don't care about the raw numbers. We just care about the percentage decrease year over year.
53:31So the thought process here is this like 93 carries 104, 118, 87.
53:35And then his next full season, he drops down to 65.
53:39And then that prolific season in Minnesota 32. So you're talking about literally cut in 25%.
53:44And if you bring that up to the conversation with Lamar Jackson right now, what's 25% of like his apex, which is
53:51about one 50 was his average 25% of one 50 is about 45 to 55 carries a year.
53:57And we're already talking about him in the conversation of like, he's probably not going to hit 80 this year.
54:03And so the question is, can he, again, you look at Randall Cunningham in that season in Minnesota just happened to have Randy Moss, right?
54:11Just happened to have Chris Carter, Joe, uh, not Jake Reed.
54:15Like there was talent there and that definitely helped him.
54:18But can Lamar translate to being more of that?
54:21You know, that year Randall Cunningham had 34 touchdowns, 10 picks, almost 4,000 passing yards.
54:26And he had the weaponry on him. Can he translate to that?
54:30And can he, can he change? That's a massive, that has to be like, that's exactly what has to happen though.
54:36Otherwise like what, what happens with Lamar, right? We've seen the completion percentage jump all the way up again.
54:42Like I said, 12 points from his first year in the league.
54:46I think he was a 58% completion percentage. And now he's at 70% this year through four games.
54:52But like before that, his career high has been 67%.
54:55That was the year he won the MVP back in 2020.
54:59What is it? 2023. Like my question is just this.
55:02Yeah. We bring up Jacoby lane. Obviously you got Zay flowers.
55:05Zay flowers look like he's coming into his own finally, which is something we've been wishing for.
55:11Mark Andrews looks like he's probably still got a couple of years left in and they're not great, but they're good enough.
55:18How long has the big dog got left? They trade for a center.
55:22They're down to the third center right now. Like I, there's an Avenue.
55:26I'm trying to talk myself through this. Like there's an Avenue for success for Lamar Jackson, but the idea again, that you
55:33would go out and trade for him and not trade him away, especially in a dynasty format.
55:39Like if you're trading for Lamar, you're wish casting the fact that he's going to turn into like a Randall Cunningham and
55:46have one of these seasons that can finish as a top eight quarterback, no rushing or limited rushing or 25% of apex
55:53rushing for Lamar Jackson isn't QB six. It's QB 12, 10.
55:56We have McEwby 10. That's where he belongs. I will put our lifetime value ratings up against anybody.
56:02And I also am an expert on Randall Cunningham because when I was a kid, as you can see, my mom dropped
56:09off these hats that she found in a box in my bedroom.
56:13This is a, the brand is apex. And this is, if anyone knows early nineties sports gear, here we go.
56:19Here's another one. Look at this one. Check that hat out.
56:23That's clean. That's clean. This is, this is actually very cool hat.
56:27This is a very, this is a very cool hat.
56:30This hat might be actually worth some money. So anyway, I cheated on the Patriots for this is, you know what kids in middle school, they do this.
56:39They will cheat on sports teams all the time.
56:42Like I know kids where they grew up Liverpool fans.
56:45And then all of a sudden, because of the world cup and everything, all of a sudden they're, they're wearing an Allen Jersey.
56:52And it's a man cities, this disgraced team. And they don't care because why he's the best striker in the world.
56:59And he's captivated their imaginations. And they're a fan and they're a kid.
57:03And that's what being a kid is all about.
57:06I cheated on the Patriots with the Eagles. Why?
57:09Randall Cunningham. That's why I did that. And, you know, my, my, my, my grandfather was like confused.
57:15He's like, why are you wearing a starter jacket?
57:18That's not the Patriots. Right. And I was like, I don't know.
57:21I like this. Fred Barnett, everybody, Reggie White. I love the team.
57:25Randall Cunningham was a very different quarterback than Lamar Jackson.
57:28Randall Cunningham could run, but the starting point with Randall Cunningham was a giant cannon of an arm.
57:34Yeah. Which Lamar has an arm. He has an arm for sure, but you could argue that Randall Cunningham is closer to
57:41Josh Allen than he is Lamar Jackson. And that of course, if he ages out of being a Konami QB, he has
57:48this big arm and he can be this prolific, you know, quarterback.
57:52That's like the NFC version of Jeff George. That's what he ended up turning into because he had that in his range
57:59of outcomes because he had, he was one of the most skilled quarterbacks in the history of the sport.
58:05He was doing things that you see routinely like hurtling guys, you know, doing like a high jump over guys and landing
58:12on his back in the end zone. He was one of the first players to start doing that kind of stuff.
58:19Now it becomes, it's routine now, but it wasn't routine back then.
58:23I mean, he was flying through the air. He was throwing bombs across the field, doing stuff like you see Caleb Williams and all the in my homes.
58:32They do this stuff. It's second nature. You turn on red zone channel.
58:36You expect to see these kinds of throws back in the late eighties, the early nineties, Randall Cunningham was it.
58:42That was where you had to tune in. You had to tune into an Eagles game to see that kind of play.
58:49And so, I mean, good luck to Lamar trying to follow that.
58:53I mean, we'll see, we'll see what happens, but I mean, he is a raging cell.
58:58I'm not as confident in Bryce young being a raging cell because Bryce young was the one on one.
59:04Bryce young is breaking out. It's sometimes it, it, it happens over time.
59:09It just, it takes years for some of these quarterbacks to marinate.
59:12Look at Jared Goff. Now I mentioned Jared Goff.
59:15And I know there's, there's protesting in the chat, me comping Lamar Jackson to Jared Goff.
59:20That was just a thought experiment. What if Lamar Jackson could only win with his arm was only productive and fantasy with his arm?
59:28What would that look like? That was not saying he's ever good.
59:32He's always going to be, he's always going to be a playmaking quarterback up to the day he retires.
59:38He's never going to be a straight up pocket passer.
59:41That's never going to be who Lamar is. So there's no, there's no Jared Goff in his range of outcomes.
59:48Okay. And when I think about one-on-ones, there is a similarity to a bunch of these career arcs and their profiles more,
59:55which is very different than a lot of one-oh-twos, one-oh-threes, one-oh-fours, one-oh-fives at the quarterback position.
60:00Whereas at one-oh-three, one-oh-four, one-oh-five, one-oh-six, you've got Josh Allen's, you've got Trey Lance's, you've got a wide variety of Anthony Richardson's and shots taken on upside.
60:09But you would never trust the one-oh-one to a guy with that kind of raw skillset.
60:14And you're rolling the dice to see, do I end up with an Anthony Richardson or do I end up with a Josh Allen?
60:21We'll see how these guys are wired and how they develop.
60:25The one-oh-one is very different. The one-oh-one is much more of a safe pick oftentimes.
60:30Right. I think back to the Goff-Wentz debate where Goff was seen as the sure thing.
60:35Wentz was the kid from the small school with the big arm where it's captivating your imagination.
60:40I mean, the best example of all time, of course, is Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf of this conversation where Peyton Manning was the safe play.
60:49And there was all this push to maybe go for the upside play in Ryan Leaf.
60:54But when you have the one-oh-one at the end of the day, you can be as compelled as you can imagine.
61:00You're ultimately, we've seen this time and time and time and time again, going to fall back to, we can't blow this pick.
61:08We just have to, we have to, we have to go high floor over high ceiling with a one-oh-one.
61:14And so when you go back through time, you're looking at a lot of prolific quarterbacks that are not necessarily physically impressive.
61:21Jared Goff is not physically impressive. He was not as physically impressive as even Carson Wentz.
61:26Go back, Baker Mayfield, very similar career arc. Baker Mayfield is the comp for Bryce Young.
61:31Baker Mayfield flamed out similarly to Bryce Young. The difference was that Baker Mayfield had more injuries, lower body injuries, shoulder injuries,
61:38elbow injuries for Baker Mayfield, where Bryce Young has been able to keep himself upright and healthy in a way that Baker Mayfield has not.
61:46But when you think about the Baker Mayfield career, he has that one year.
61:51Baker Mayfield has that one year a couple of years ago where everything lined up.
61:55The team turned up the dials on the pass volume.
61:59He was efficient. And you look up and you're like, wait, Baker Mayfield, a guy that you could write down in ink, 16.5 fantasy points per game.
62:07Baker Mayfield. That's who he is. And then inexplicably, a 23.5 fantasy points per game season for Baker Mayfield.
62:13This is the danger. This is the danger with Bryce Young that we're looking at a 2024 Baker Mayfield season.
62:20But what's the connection? Talk to me, Goose. The connection between that Baker Mayfield comp and Bryce Young is that Baker Mayfield
62:27in 2023 had Dave Canalis as his offensive coordinator, and he found it in 2023.
62:32It took a next step in 2024 when, I mean, Canales had left at that point and goes to Carolina.
62:38He gets Liam Cohen. So here's another voice. And then they take a step up.
62:43I can't remember what the correlation was, the difference between 2023 and 2024 season.
62:47If there was any player differences, they added Bucky.
62:50I think Bucky was the only addition year over year from 23 to 24.
62:55So, I mean, yeah, that could be your math there.
62:58It's like literally 2023 was the first time we saw Baker Mayfield take a step towards positivity, right?
63:04He jumped from, you know, bouncing around from the, was it the, he was a Panther to a Ram to a, you
63:11know, it was Brown, Panther, Ram, then Tampa. Yeah.
63:142023, we see what he can be. 2024, he takes the next step forward.
63:18So it's like, now we're seeing what Bryce Young is.
63:21Do they, you know, I don't know. The correlation would be this.
63:25They still have Canalis. You're talking about year four.
63:28Maybe you add a running back. That's a little more versatile than maybe what Chuba is.
63:33Cause Chuba has no versatility. And that could be another thing that could continue to unlock this offense.
63:39And then you of course have that's Baker being QB four and fantasy football that year.
63:44Like that, that's, and here's the deal. Like you're not going to lose Dave Canales in that math for Bryce Young.
63:51Like that's the coach. It's not like an offensive coordinator is going to go leave and go do something else.
63:57Like you have Canales there for the foreseeable future, as long as you're successful.
64:02So that's a great comp. And it's kind of working that way under Canales.
64:06I'll admit it. And I can hear the audience working through this in their head and I'm just going to say it before anyone else can.
64:14Oh boy. It's super convenient with me that whenever a coach narrative supports my argument, I'm nodding along, right?
64:20It's super convenient. Isn't that convenient? Isn't that convenient?
64:23Isn't that convenient? Podfather. Isn't that convenient? You're oh, you just burn down the coach narratives.
64:28Oh, but he's supporting my art. Oh, well, in that case, yes.
64:32Talk to me more about Dave Canales, Cody. No, I don't want to interrupt you at all.
64:38Please. By all means, the floor is yours. I know it.
64:41I know it. I get it. And I'm not pushing back because I'm in with that's the beauty of the coach narratives, man.
64:49That's the beauty of it. They're all it's just it's it's whenever you need it.
64:53Whenever you need the answer to the question, the coach narrative will come in and fill the gap in the understanding.
65:00It'll it'll smooth it out. It'll make you feel like, OK, I get it now.
65:05All right. I get it. Yeah, we're right. Yeah, we're on the right track.
65:09OK, yeah, I get it. Yeah, yeah. The coach connection.
65:13That's right. Yeah, yeah. The coach. Oh, that's right.
65:15Yeah, I feel good. I feel confident. Chuba is interesting.
65:19When you look at Chuba, you would think, right, if we're being consistent after these four weeks of data come in and
65:26suddenly Carolina is this prolific offense that the public consensus would be running the best case scenario on Bryce Young, which they
65:33already have that that those that's that's done. Those horses have left the barn, but it's not consistent.
65:38Like if there was a player where I would be comfortable pushing my chips in based on what I'm seeing in a
65:46four game sample and the trend for the rest of the season with a particular team, it would be the running back because running back is so disposable.
65:55Their careers are shorter. And when you're running back is cooking in fantasy, you need to take advantage, right?
66:01When you when the flames are hot, you need to put as much meat on the grill as possible and get that
66:08cooked up and get those fantasy wins, right? Bank those W's.
66:11And yet when you look up at Chuba Hubbard, RB 22, RB 22, he's barely moved.
66:16It's like we're here to immediately reflexively autocorrect Bryce Young's valuation, but not Chuba.
66:21No, Chuba, you know, he's stuck at RB. And you want to know where we have Chuba Hubbard?
66:27Can you guess? Can you guess, Cody? Can you guess where we have Chuba Hubbard on the player profile or dynasty rankings?
66:34Again, keep trade caught. Public consensus. Yeah. RB 22.
66:36Where do you think we have him? 16. RB 22.
66:40Oh, shit. No, it's exactly right. It's exactly right.
66:43Is it though? I think it's I think it's perfectly fine and reasonable to have a 27 year old back who is the newly minted bell cow.
66:51He was not a bell cow in the league until age 27.
66:55Becomes a bell cow for the first time. A true bell cow.
66:59They bell cowed him two years ago. He was a primary back.
67:03I make a distinction between a primary back and a bell cow getting like an 80% opportunity.
67:08Okay. It's happening. He's a true bell cow back.
67:11I mean, this is a rarefied air, but it's age 27.
67:15Right. And so he has been just like Bryce Young, probably more than Bryce Young, actually climbing the rankings as we are adjusting for the play volume.
67:23The offensive play volume in Carolina greatly impacts Chuba Hubbard's output.
67:27He's now up to 19.8 fantasy points per game.
67:30Just in the last four weeks, he has more than doubled his lifetime value rating because it was all this uncertainty around
67:37who's going to get the touches and what touches.
67:39And you have two competing backs. One is hurt, right?
67:43Actually, there was a period of time in camp where Chuba was less healthy than Jonathan Brooks, which is like a riddle.
67:50How is that even possible? But it was true for a while.
67:54Chuba wasn't practicing for weeks. He was week to week.
67:57It was actually week to week in camp and Brooks was practicing.
68:01And he was 27 and no one was excited to draft Chuba Hubbard.
68:05In fact, I argued with coach on the trade God show where I'm in a startup and you were probably in the startup with me.
68:13I drafted Chuba Hubbard because I inadvertently was not intentional.
68:16Went zero RB just because I was tight in premium and I was captivated by the tight end values.
68:22I drafted Bowers. I drafted Tyler Warren. And then it was super flex.
68:26So I had to draft some quarterbacks, Mahomes. Next thing I know, I look up and I don't have a running back.
68:33And the only one left that's a primary back that I have any confidence in whatsoever was Chuba Hubbard.
68:39So I ended up with a bunch of Chuba Hubbard in startups this year, not necessarily intentionally and not like out over my skis with our valuation.
68:48Like I said, we didn't have him in the top 25 at all.
68:52But now you look up and we have him ahead of Saquon Barkley.
68:56We have him ahead of Jedarian Price. We have him ahead of premium prospects like Jedarian Price and ahead of proven studs from the past like Saquon Barkley.
69:05I think that's perfectly fair, fine and reasonable to have him right there.
69:09That's where he belongs. And when you go to the crowdsourced rankings, I have less objection to the valuations around running back than I do around quarterback.
69:18Because the running back, there's a few that I think are weird.
69:22The weirdest one to me is the lack of correction on the valuation of Devon Achan.
69:27I like Devon Achan, but the guy's out for the year.
69:31He's not going to produce it all. He's only valuable now to rebuilding teams.
69:35So now there's only a subset of teams and leagues that would even ever consider trading for him, offers no value this
69:42year, and then is going to come back to a completely uncertain, unknown situation.
69:47We don't know what the offensive line is going to look like.
69:50We don't know what the quarterback is going to look like.
69:54We have no idea what this offense is going to look like.
69:58So there's a huge, we don't know how healthy his knee is going to look like.
70:03So if there's a player with a, we have an uncertainty quotient, we apply to these lifetime value ratings.
70:09The uncertainty quotient on Achan is necessarily very high, but that is clearly not reflected in the crowdsource data on Keep Trade Cut.
70:16The public does not have the same concerns about Achan that we do.
70:20So that was a singular player that I found curious.
70:24But when you go to the quarterback valuations, the quarterback valuations are all over the place where I'm strongly objecting to where
70:31they have Lamar Jackson, where the public has Bryce Young.
70:34And so I actually see more buying opportunities, more market inefficiency exploits at the quarterback position than any other.
70:40And that certainly helped me. I'm sitting here with these orphans and I got Lamar Jackson burning a hole in my pocket.
70:47I'm going to deal. I'm going to deal. The problem is I post these deals in our discord.
70:53So you go to player profiler, sign up for our discord.
70:56I post the dynasty trades in there that I'm doing.
71:00I post them on Twitter X as well sometimes, but always in the discord.
71:04And you should have got more. It's Lamar Jackson.
71:07And I'm like, well, first of all, just because he's quarterback three on keep trade cut doesn't mean you're going to get
71:14quarterback three valuation and trade for all the reasons we talked about.
71:18The limited marketplaces is not a liquid market. It's the it's the when you talk about trading Lamar Jackson, it is as
71:25far away from a liquid market as it gets.
71:28And so when I can get a 2027 first for Lamar Jackson in super flex, I am taking it.
71:34And this idea that I needed to get multiple firsts.
71:37These are people that aren't actually in leagues. I'm so happy that I'm in so many more leagues now that I'm actively
71:44doing these trades all the time with different players, different situations and different setups and different team strategies from rebuild over here and a win now over there.
71:53I finally, for the first time that it took me having like 30, 30 teams and 30 leagues at this point, all
72:00these startups and all these orphans for me to really understand the market for a lot of these players and, and to
72:07be able to defend certain trades that I see, but also criticize certain trades that I see.
72:13And when I post a trade like that, you could tell the people that are criticizing it have no idea what they're
72:20talking about, have never had to trade Lamar in a dynasty league in real life.
72:24It's not real life. So you see these criticisms that are clearly not real life versus you talk to people like coach and yourself.
72:32It were actually in leagues understanding what it actually takes to do an actual deal in real life.
72:38Can I ask you, uh, cause when you're talking about Chuba, I wanted to bring up Asian.
72:43You brought up HN naturally. They're obviously in different tiers, uh, different age groups, different situations.
72:48Who would you rather be rostering right now in dynasty?
72:52Would you rather be rostering 27 year old Chuba Hubbard with, uh, this year plus two years left on his contract.
72:58And a guy that came into the league at 208 pounds now weighs 216 to 220 put on good weight Yvonne HN
73:05who's five, nine hundred 85 pounds, you know, has in the last, uh, 2020 and over the last 22 games, he's had
73:12toe ribs, shoulder rib again, knee injury. Now, like this was the one thing that we worried about with him.
73:19He does have a brand new contract for your 64 million, which I do think is a massive part of why the
73:26dynasty ethos hasn't done anything with him as far as moving him down.
73:30Um, and the last three years, like he's given you output, but how long does that last?
73:35Would you rather roster a Chuba Hubbard in the Panthers offense and being used?
73:40Like, I mean, we saw him be used two years ago and they don't anticipate Jonathan Brooks having much to say in this offense, um, going forward.
73:49Unfortunately, unfortunately, but if they do with what they did Chuba two years ago, plus like, I know he's up there.
73:55He's at 27 years old. I'm not trying to like, I was trying to look up like older dudes.
74:01Like I was trying to find like Matt Forte later career, DeMarco Murray later career.
74:06Like I was kind of having trouble, um, around that.
74:09So he's the same size now as Adrian Peterson was and Adrian Peterson had some seasons up there, but, uh, obviously petered out at the end.
74:18If this offense continues to be prolific enough and Chuba again, he's been at, he's been RB one every week this year, heading into their buy.
74:26Like, I feel like I'd obviously now you can say this because the injuries here, but I feel like I'd rather roster
74:33Chuba because I'll know I'll get some gas with him in comparison to having Devon HN on my roster where he's at
74:40age 25 and people, you can say he's walking into the age apex, but, and Chuba's at Chuba's post apex right now.
74:47But for what HN is, you could argue he's at apex too.
74:51Like the only thing that's been carrying his weight is the pass catching work.
74:55And there's no weaponry in Miami right now. And I can totally understand the theory of they're going to go draft a
75:02quarterback next year and, or probably going to add a wide receiver or two in probably three in free agency in the draft.
75:10There's going to be more weaponry in the outside.
75:13You're going to have a young quarterback who should in theory target you out of the back field more when you get healthy next year.
75:21Um, we'll see. So I can, I can do the math there and I can understand how this Miami team could be competent in 2028.
75:29But at that point you're 27 years old near Devon HN.
75:32Right. And, and I think that there's, there's a rub here in a question where I ask, who would you rather roster
75:39for the next two to three years in dynasty?
75:42I think the answer, even though the rankings are very far apart, I think the answer to, for me is Chuba.
75:49Again, you look at the last three years, Chuba Hubbard, 20 plus fantasy point games in PPR 10 Devon HN 20 plus fantasy point games in PPR 12.
75:58It's not that big of a difference. Yes. You've had some HN ones where it's 41 or 50, but, and those are awesome.
76:05Those are, you know, those will make your week.
76:08But as far as the consistency goes, they're, they're kind of the same.
76:12And Chuba hasn't been used in the same vein that HN has in Miami.
76:17Again, we have Chuba Hubbard at RB 22. Keep trade cut has Chuba Hubbard at RB 22.
76:22And I had so much fun. I think you saw me DMing you messages and you saw me send you the show sheet.
76:30And it was like Wednesday night at 1 AM.
76:32I was up late. I was compelled. I was in it.
76:36My wife was like, when are you going to go to bed?
76:40Are you not in bed? And I'm like, or when did you go to bed?
76:45And I was like, I didn't go to bed until like two o'clock in the morning.
76:50It's like, what the fuck were you doing? I was like, I was on, I was on keep trade cut.
76:56I had keep trade cut over here and I had player profile over here and I was preparing for the show.
77:03I wanted to start getting my, my wheels turning for the show we're doing on Saturday with Cody, the Sonic truth.
77:10And I was just mesmerized. I was mesmerized. I was like, this is so crazy.
77:14It's exactly the same with Chuba Hubbard, but it couldn't be a bigger disparity with D-Von HN.
77:20Why is this? Why is this man? Like, it was like, I was taking dynasty drugs.
77:25I wasn't, I didn't have any drugs, right? It was no pot, no shrooms, no nothing.
77:30But it was like, I was on drugs. I was like, this is so crazy, man.
77:35Why is this man? This is crazy. Oh, this is so, oh wow.
77:39What a coincidence. This is the exact same. Why is this one so different, man?
77:44So I was just, I was, I was just in it, man.
77:48I was so in it. And HN, fascinating. He is so much higher because you're right.
77:53They're not in the same tier, but on player profiler, they're one tier away.
77:58They are close. And that's where we have a lifetime value rating.
78:01That is a raw number as well as a ranking.
78:05So if you look at the rankings, you look at where we have HN and we have HN at RB 17.
78:11That's a huge disparity, right? Between where we have them and keep trade cut.
78:16Okay. The difference between RB nine and RB 17 is that's, that's as big of a gap, big as disparity you're going to see.
78:23You're not going to see a bigger disparity than that.
78:27And the lifetime value rating between those players is actually tiny.
78:30Even though the ranking, there seems to be, you know, from RB 17 to RB 22.
78:35That sounds like there could be it. It's hard to know how much more valuable is the RB 17 versus the RB 22.
78:43Well, actually we do know we have the exact valuation.
78:46The lifetime value rating system, Diva on HN has a 122.04 valuation Hubbard, 100.39.
78:50So we should put this up on the screen.
78:53I'm going to put this up on the screen right now.
78:57So you can all see this. You see, this is why it's so important to have something that goes beyond just rankings,
79:04because when you are calculating a trade, you need to have an exact valuation.
79:08Some system that actually values each player. It's an arbitrary range of numbers as all ranges of numbers in a situation like this.
79:16When you're attaching a particular number to a particular player, it's ultimately the starting point or the range of values is arbitrary.
79:23And then these players will then slot in at some point in that range.
79:27Like in Superflex, some range between Josh Allen and the bottom player, like the last player we rank, Xavier Leggett, who knows, right?
79:35I just wanted to pick a guy that was like a first round pick recently.
79:39That's now gone to zero. But here it is.
79:42They're quite close. They are quite close. So it's just shocking to see where he is in consensus.
79:48And you should be trading him. If you have HN, given the cloud of uncertainty around him, absolutely consider dealing him.
79:55I kind of want to tell you something, but I kind of don't.
79:59This is the, you know, this dynasty rankings. I share them with trash man, right?
80:04They all go into this equation that spits out our overall dynasty rankings.
80:08Something was off with this Devon HN ranking. So I sort it and I'm like, all right, what's going on here?
80:15I pull up trash man's rankings. Listen to this.
80:17Ready? Devon HN running back 27. Oh, Chuba Hubbard running back 29.
80:21Oh man. See, that's the thing with trash man.
80:24Trash man is a great character and a great guy to have on your team because he has these insights that are shockingly correct, accurate, inspired, insightful.
80:33And then immediately we'll follow it up with some kind of cockamamie foobard ranking.
80:37I mean, you're like, if he had just had Hubbard at RB 20, it would have been gold.
80:43But of course, prescient on HN and then way behind on Hubbard.
80:47Like, oh, come on, man. Just that's the thing.
80:50Trash man is like, he's like a tantalizing talent, but he can't quite put it all together.
80:55Still loves Caleb Johnson. Still has Caleb Johnson, RB 30.
80:58Stop it. Stop it. This is what I deal with.
81:02Stop it. He's an inspired talent, but it just, it doesn't quite ever come together.
81:06And by the way, Bortle, Bortle is. Ollie Gordon's the highest ranked running back in the Miami backfield.
81:12According to trash man. For the record, we would rather have a chance than Ollie Gordon.
81:17Just want to make sure that's clear to everybody.
81:20That is where we have now. So Bortle, who is chatting with us from Twitch.
81:25We are on Twitch. We are like at podfather 5000, something like that on Twitch.
81:30And Bortle comes in. Love anyone named Bortle or Bortles.
81:33I appreciate that very much. Has the Homer Simpson brain scan as his avatar.
81:37Some incredible avatars in our audience. He's in a 16 team league super flex.
81:42A rebuilder with Lamar Jackson has been trying to trade him on the trade block for two years and no one is willing to pay.
81:50And he could have just eaten the sunk cost.
81:53Taken the market value. Quote unquote sell low. This is why we sell low.
81:57There are sell low players and we talk a lot about sell low.
82:01We talk as much about sell low as sell high.
82:05And this is why. This dynasty manager was able to simply absorb the sunk cost and move on two years ago.
82:11Would have potentially acquired multiple good players. And in the meantime, Lamar Jackson has only leaked value.
82:17So now he's not going to get even what might have been on the table two years ago for Lamar Jackson.
82:24That's why with Lamar Jackson in particular of all the players in the league, there is no player right now that's more
82:31sell low run and hide than Lamar Jackson and super flex.
82:34And I recently did a deal where I did get a 2027 first and I would challenge anyone to do that.
82:41Now I had to I had to also have other players involved.
82:45Like I got Basial Tootin in the deal. I got Jackson Dart in the deal.
82:49I also included McCaffrey. So it wasn't just a Lamar Jackson specific deal.
82:54It wasn't one for one Lamar for a pick.
82:56I had to get creative. And I actually think I came out even further ahead than if it was just a one
83:04for one because we have Jackson Dart ahead of Lamar Jackson.
83:07That's the better Jackson. I'm not even the biggest Jackson Dart fan.
83:11But if I'm a rebuilding orphan, one of the players I'm targeting way before I'd be targeting a guy like A-chan is Jackson Dart.
83:19And that is one of the best players to target for a rebuilding team.
83:23I mean, that's if I'm rebuilding and I have any need at quarterback and super flex, I'm going around my league, every
83:30league trying to get Jackson, get Jackson Dart. Because I was skeptical and then he proved us wrong early in the season.
83:37He's like, I'm going to do it as a rookie and then I'm going to do it again.
83:43Small sample, a couple of games, but I'm going to do it again.
83:47It's like, oh man, you got to do it again with a different offseason, different personnel, far from 100% Malik neighbors.
83:54And you're going to be that same guy we saw, the peak of his powers the previous year.
84:00I'm much more in now than I was even a couple weeks ago on Jackson Dart and he's injured.
84:06And I'm just, it's like, I have the history of quarterbacks having their careers derailed by injury.
84:11It's lower than running backs. We have examples like Matthew Stafford.
84:15There was a narrative around Matthew Stafford that his bones were like a lower density than a normal human.
84:21That he had like osteoporosis of the shoulders. That I heard that.
84:25That was a thing. They were taught, Cody, there was a narrative that Matthew Stafford had osteoporosis of the shoulders because he
84:32had suffered two straight broken clavicles in a row.
84:34Broke his collarbone one year, broke it again the next year.
84:38They're like, okay, well this guy, it was a random event that was overanalyzed.
84:42And they imbued reasoning, right? Cause and effect onto this, the shoulder injury that didn't exist.
84:48It was just randomness. And that's what often happens.
84:50Like we think there's some underlying reason for why events play out.
84:54No, actually it's just a player hit him at a certain angle at a certain time and in the space time continuum and it happened again.
85:03And it won't happen to these other quarterbacks for their whole lives, but it happened to Matthew Stafford twice in successive seasons.
85:10And that's just random chance. So it's very rare, even him.
85:13Like he is the example of a quarterback that was supposed to have his career derailed by injury in his first few years.
85:21I are stint. I are stint. I are stint.
85:23And now you look up and he's 38 and he's an NFL MVP.
85:28So yeah, I'm buying Jackson dart. Don't care as much about the injury as I would a guy like a Chan or a running back.
85:36I think that's a great, I think that's a great one because I was trying to think through that.
85:42This is my first instinct was like, well, you're not in, you're not worried about the just bang, bang, like two years of injuries.
85:49And then you bring that up. I think of Drew Brees, I think even Penix right now, like Penix.
85:55Oh my God. Drew Brees is another one. Remember Drew Brees.
85:59Yeah. Had a shoulder that was permanently disabled. That basically Drew Brees was going to go on workers comp and never play again.
86:06Yeah. His shoulder was turned into hamburger meat. His shoulder was inoperable.
86:10He couldn't throw anymore. He couldn't lift it and it'll never work again.
86:14And he'll never work again. I was told that.
86:17Did Nick Saban pass on him because of that?
86:20And then they ended up bringing in Culpepper who was coming off an ACL himself.
86:25That's right. And this is the thing, like, this is what, you know, Dart has.
86:30It's a meniscus MCL PCL. He didn't even have the ACL.
86:33I don't think. Right. He had the MCL back in 2021.
86:37He's had concussions, but like Tua, Tua's had concussions.
86:40He's had freaking everything. And I know he hasn't played a ton and I'm not trying to say he's making it through,
86:47but he's, I think at one point, 2023, 2024, we would have thought that that dude might retire or be in a coma.
86:54And he's still playing. Michael Penix has had three ACLs and he's playing the best football he's played.
87:00In a long time. I think historically you can think about like Deshaun Watson had an ACL in 2017.
87:06He went on to have the 2020 season. Baker, Baker, torn labrum.
87:10Baker's been a ragdoll. He's been the NFL's ragdoll.
87:13Like he's just been thrown around. They grab him by the arm and he's banging on the turf until something pops or falls off with Baker Mayfield.
87:21This is a good theory. I hadn't really thought through because I think I usually get to the quarterbacks.
87:27I'm just like, man, especially with Dart. Dart really has me like, cause, because that's a big part of his game is the running and stuff.
87:36But. Oh, I'm in. I'm in now. I'm in now.
87:39Like I've never been on Dart. And yeah, but that's the thing.
87:43Dart fell more and keep trade cut than a Chan.
87:46And it should be reversed. A lot of the movement I'm seeing at quarterback, I think is super reactionary.
87:52And there's not nearly the same level of movement, not the same velocity of rankings change happening at the running back position.
87:59And that's where I think the velocity should go up.
88:02If anything at the running back position, in terms of just consensus rankings on keep trade cut, they're either the public and player profiler and myself and yourself.
88:11We're all pretty much in line and lockstep like a Chuba Hubbard, or they're too slow to adjust some of these running backs.
88:18But in general, I would say more accurate than the quarterback position with a quarterback position.
88:24It's wildly reactionary to a, that makes my head spin where I'm like, what is happening?
88:29I'm like, I'm moving all around. Like it's, I'd be like, it's just a whipsaw.
88:34I don't get it. Like this is the quarterback position.
88:37Like, just like you said, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford were supposed to be done.
88:42Their careers were over. They can't stay healthy. They can't play anymore.
88:45And it was both shoulder related. The shoulder area.
88:48They were just like, well, it's a shoulder and they're going into a prove it year.
88:53If it doesn't happen this year, they're done. They're busts.
88:57And it's like, oh no, actually these are hall of famers.
89:00These are now hall of famers. And that's, that's how it goes.
89:04Even to the, you even went as far as you possibly could go to Deshaun Watson, where he got kicked out of society.
89:11He wasn't just kicked out of the league. He was kicked out of society.
89:16He was, he was gone. Our society wanted to put Deshaun Watson in a rocket ship and just send him to outer space.
89:23And yet even he comes back from all of the scandal and injuries to all.
89:28All these different body parts, arm injury, leg injuries comes back.
89:31And you look up and it's like, oh, I think I'm starting Deshaun Watson this week.
89:37I think there's a Deshaun Watson conversation. That's going to have to be had here.
89:41Maybe not this show, but maybe the next show.
89:44If this thing continues to go the way it's going, I will put it in a, in the show sheet for next time.
89:52Yeah. So you all can have confidence. Well, actually, no, they can't have any, they don't have any com.
89:58I can't believe they can have, I can't believe I'm telling people have confidence in the topics we discussed.
90:04Okay. You could have the slightest, most minuscule amount of confidence that is possible that we may or may not talk about Deshaun Watson.
90:11But as of this moment, I am promising you that maybe potentially we might talk about him and I'm at least going to make a note about it.
90:20I do want to talk about him. It's the best football he's been playing since 2020.
90:26It's the best football he's ever played as a Brown.
90:29He's moving up. He's moving up the rankings. It's true.
90:32I'm seeing a green arrow. If you go, if you go to the player profile or dynasty rankings, there is a green arrow.
90:39He has overtaken a bunch of players. He's over, I think Daniel Jones in his rear view, Aaron Rogers in his rear view.
90:47Nobody at the quarterback position on keep trade cut has risen more in the last 30 days at the quarterback position than Deshaun Watson.
90:54The quarterback position, highly reactionary. The public is for whatever reason, very highly reactionary.
90:59That one though, sometimes it makes sense. Sometimes, sometimes there's a particular player in a particular scenario where it does make sense even at the quarterback position.
91:07Because this is a, the quarterback position is a, is a large sample position.
91:12Yeah. So we, we don't need to be reactionary with quarterback.
91:15It makes no sense. It would be the, well, it's not that it makes no sense.
91:21It's, it's not possible for us given our model, how we value players, our lifetime value engine.
91:26It's just not possible for a quarterback to rise dramatically or fall dramatically because it's a big sample position.
91:32And if you look at just on a percentage rise, the biggest percentage rise among quarterbacks, or at least one of the biggest is absolutely Deshaun Watson.
91:41I mean, I'm looking through them to try to see if anyone else is, has, has moved as much as Deshaun Watson.
91:48Yes, there is one. No, there is one. And this is very sad to say, but Deshaun Watson, who Deshaun Watson has risen by percentage.
91:56Oh boy. As much as Justin Herbert has fallen.
91:59Oh my gosh. Yep. As Justin Herbert has fallen.
92:02But guess what? We are not nearly as bearish on Justin Herbert.
92:05I mean, we are like, we are Justin Herbert apologists.
92:09Yeah. When you compare where we have them versus the consensus.
92:12Do you think it's the girl or do you think it's the offensive coordinator?
92:17Or do you think it's just, I don't know.
92:20I don't, I, again, we don't, we don't have data on the why and that doesn't factor in to the, the, the ultimate lifetime value rating.
92:28It's just what they do on the field and weaponry to go from 22.4 fantasy points per game to 12.4 fantasy points per game.
92:36And there just is no visibility into this improving.
92:38All we're seeing are pieces falling out of the equation.
92:42We're seeing Rashawn Slater hurt. We're seeing Joe all missing time.
92:45We're seeing Lad McConkie trending towards out. We're seeing even Quinton Johnson isn't playing.
92:50Brennan Thompson isn't playing. And this is the other team.
92:53I will say there's two teams and this is the other team in the NFL, other than the 49ers that practices next to an electric substation.
93:01I think they just, I think that they were honestly one of the rare situations shouldn't say rare because it happens, but
93:08where a team completely overvalued what they had from a talent perspective, like completely just, you know, looked at Lad McConkie in
93:15a light that he isn't potentially putting him in a Jalen Waddell, Tyreek Hill situation in this, in this offense.
93:22You can't do that. Never could. Even though he's a four, three guy and he's one of the best route runners in the league.
93:29That's not his route. His role completely overvalued what Quinton Johnston could be.
93:33Again, we've all known this since TCU. They were going to trade him.
93:38He was on the trade block and they decided, no, we're doubling down.
93:42We believe in Q. We're going to keep him.
93:45We're going to work with him. We're going to develop him.
93:48They should have sold out and sold low on Quinton Johnston when they had an opportunity, just like the Cardinals did.
93:55And they didn't take it, which is again, it's bad player personnel valuation and evaluation.
94:00Yeah. And it's also bad tactics, bad tactics. When you have that personnel where it's perfectly designed, their offense is perfectly designed for 11 personnel in Los Angeles.
94:09They have basically every player check every box for what you need to run 12 personnel, including two elite tackles to run 11 personnel.
94:16That's what you need. And what did they decide to do?
94:20They decided to chase the current league trend. They went in vogue player personnel trend over how do we optimize the play
94:27calling for our particular talent on our particular team, especially our quarterback and our offensive line, which is the core where most
94:34of the value on the offense is. They went out and acquired Charlie Kohler and David Njoku and willingly, inexplicably made the
94:41choice to run the most inefficient offense given their personnel.
94:44So on, on several levels, it's both the front office and the coaching staff that have been revealed to be incompetent.
94:51Well, this is an interesting connection you can make to the Baltimore Ravens is Joe Hortiz.
94:56What have the Baltimore Ravens struggled to do in the last decade?
95:00Draft a wide receiver of competence. They, right. They, they finally hit one with Zay Flowers and you could argue lad could
95:07be there's a flowers, but lad is a, is a mildly different receiver with less dynamism from that perspective.
95:13But again, you're, again, you're overvaluing guys. You shouldn't, they, they still continue to value Rashad Bateman in Baltimore.
95:19The reason I bring this up is because Hortiz was in Baltimore from 1998 to 2023.
95:24He's been in Baltimore learning everything from day one, right?
95:27Up until under DaCosta, leaving, leaving DaCosta in 2023 to take that job.
95:32And I'm not trying to, to, to, to shit on Hortiz here.
95:35Cause I think Hortiz is one of the better GMs in the league, but the bringing in Mike McDaniel and probably a
95:42little more laissez-faire from a aggression perspective in making moves like this, how Harbaugh is, I think has put you in a
95:49spot now where you, you have a third round Trey Harris, right?
95:53That isn't good. You have a Quentin Johnston who's a bust.
95:57And now you're like, okay, now we have to lean into, you know, Marquez Valdez, Scantling's on our roster and Darius Davis.
96:04And we're going to go draft these speedsters that aren't good wide receivers.
96:08They're just, they're just wind sprinters. And that is a, that's incompetence.
96:12That's incompetence because you're overlooking. You're like, oh, we need to go get a Keaton Mitchell because we're going to have this piece of our offense.
96:20We're going to go make sure we go get a second and a third tight end for this.
96:26We got to make sure we fix that center position.
96:29Remember all you heard all off season when they did, I don't even think it was, was it the off season hard
96:36knocks or they had something where they had cameras there.
96:39And all you heard was like how important the center position was.
96:43I think they went out and got Tyler Biotish from doubt.
96:47Was he in the frick? Where is he at Dallas or something?
96:51They bring him in. They're like, that's our piece.
96:53That's our final piece. Put Biotish at center and we're cooking.
96:57We got Keaton Mitchell, special weapon. We're cooking. Mike McDaniels on the football field talking to Quentin Johnson.
97:03He goes, Hey Quentin, man, if you can maintain that speed at this break, the league's not going to be able to handle you.
97:10Anybody remember that clip this off season, like July?
97:13Quentin, if you do this, this league's not going to be able to handle you.
97:18They can't. Dude, this is a completely incompetent offense at this point.
97:22I don't really know who to blame it on.
97:25I don't think it's Justin Herbert. I honestly believe it's an incompetence from a player personnel perspective and some incompetence of maybe
97:32even being strapped a little bit from a Mike McDaniel perspective.
97:35I don't even think it's really all on him either.
97:39And the thing is, he'll probably be the one that eats it and probably gets fired and it costs him a couple
97:46of years where he has to go back and be some kind of analyst or co-OC with the Niners.
97:52Go back and work with the Shanahan's. Go back and bake for another couple of years before he gets a real opportunity.
97:59But I think in reality, it's pure incompetence from a personnel perspective.
98:03And I think Justin Herbert's safe for that. So what I'm saying is, buy Justin Herbert.
98:08You mentioned Mike McDaniel. Recognize his sunglasses? I do.
98:11The Mike McDaniel sunglasses. They come on anytime his name is mentioned, they come on.
98:15We, I thought, were reacting aggressively, moving him down, but fairly.
98:19And then I was heartened to know that, yes, on Keep Trade Cut, he fell even further.
98:24Like he was completely and utterly buried. Because I was like, okay, I think, I think this, this makes sense where we
98:31have Justin Herbert and we have Justin Herbert among quarterbacks still ahead of Bryce Young, which I think because it's dynasty.
98:38We've seen this guy full seasons with 22 plus fantasy points per game and has the talent profile that Bryce Young will never have.
98:46And we have him at QB 13. I think that's where he belongs.
98:50QB 13, QB 12 through 15 is where he belongs.
98:53Burying him down at QB 18 is just reactionary.
98:56Again, the public is very reactionary with quarterback. And with a guy like Lad McConkie, again, I thought that there was not enough reaction to Lad McConkie.
99:05So if you go to Lad McConkie and Keep Trade Cut, he's at wide receiver 23.
99:10And that, that's not reactionary enough. We have him at wide receiver 28.
99:14Lad McConkie's kind of done. It's hard to find a path for Lad McConkie to ever become a wide receiver one in this league.
99:22This idea that he is in the same tier of guys like Zay Flowers.
99:26I mean, that, that is long gone. Why even hold on?
99:30Why even try to hold him into the top 24?
99:33Let it go, man. You gotta let it go.
99:36A team like the Chargers becomes a scrap heap team that you start to pick pieces off at value.
99:42Like you peck, peck, peck value pieces off the carcass after it's dead.
99:46Now is the time to start going in and start pecking around at Justin Herbert and Dynasty.
99:51It's not the time. I'm not ready for Lad McConkie yet.
99:55I think now you can start to see where people are at.
99:59I'm trying to do like a heat check on a Marion Hampton.
100:03Where, where is the public at? Where are my league mates at with a Marion Hampton?
100:08Going around to some teams, finding some Marion Hampton, trying to get a sense for how, how these particular Dynasty managers value him.
100:15It's time to start dabbling on acquiring some Hampton.
100:18It's time to start dabbling on acquiring some Justin Herbert.
100:21And I'm, I'm, I'm bullish on Trey Harris. Trey Harris is.
100:25Tell me. A true number one receiver in a way that Lad McConkie is not and never will be.
100:31And Quinton Johnson is not. Quinton Johnson is not and never will be.
100:35At least Trey Harris is a baseline, bare minimum alpha.
100:38He's not an exciting alpha. He's not a guy that's ever going to be like a top 10 receiver, but he was productive in the SEC.
100:46He has the outside wide receiver body. He has demonstrated at the NFL level that he can run clean routes and squeeze the football and traffic.
100:55So he's done enough. He's done enough. This is potentially eight weeks from now, end of the season viewed by the majority
101:02as the, the new number one in Los Angeles.
101:05That could absolutely happen. But I can also tell you what's going to happen.
101:09They're drafting a receiver. I was just going to say like, this is their draft and a receiver, dude.
101:15That's, that's the problem. That's why you can't get two out over your skis on a guy like Trey Harris.
101:22Even if you're out on McConkie, they're bringing someone in next year.
101:26They're bringing someone in. This is suddenly one of the shallowest, most talent deficient wide receiver cores where we thought, like we
101:33said, they've got the pieces of an optimal 11 personnel grouping here.
101:36As long as you consider Quentin Johnston, the wide receiver three, the guy that you rotate in, in specific situations.
101:43And you also can bring in a Brendan Thompson and other situations.
101:47That's where they, they, they had, they technically had the personnel, the field stretchers, the outside playmakers.
101:52They had the right mix of slot receivers and a two-way tight end that they could run 11 personnel successfully.
101:59And now they're down to Trey Harris and Rondae Gadsden as the only guys that are going to be able to catch passes in this offense.
102:07You're right. There is a true incompetence here. It's coaching.
102:10It's front office. It's all the blame. Coaches can do more damage than they can assistance.
102:15A bad coach will damage a team more than a good coach will help it.
102:20And we're seeing that example this year in Los Angeles.
102:23We saw it last year in Las Vegas. The Raiders could only go up.
102:28Everyone on the Raiders with a value could only go up.
102:31Why? Because it couldn't get any worse. And that's what's going to happen with the Chargers.
102:36That's why these guys are all going to be values this year.
102:40You could just try to peck away at Chargers in Dynasty this season because it could only go up.
102:46It's only going to get better. Justin Herbert's not going anywhere.
102:50And he's not a bad quarterback. And they're eventually going to get new coaches, new management in there.
102:55And it's Dynasty. That's the thing. You have these guys for their careers.
103:00You think Justin Herbert's going to be a 12.5 fantasy points per game quarterback for the rest of his career?
103:06Of course not. But that's where the public rushes to that conclusion on a platform like Keep Trade Cut.
103:12At the quarterback position, a big sample position, it is the fascinating insight for me this season was seeing this all play
103:19out when I was comparing the two, player profiler and Keep Trade Cut.
103:23I was like, this is so fascinating how quickly fantasy gamers jump to conclusions at the quarterback position of all positions.
103:30If this phenomenon was happening at running back, I'd be here for it.
103:34Because to me, running back is a week-to-week position.
103:37That's the one position that should be. Yeah. It's flimsy as hell.
103:41Everybody's running back projections are super flimsy, super speculative.
103:44They're volume dependent, highly randomized TD equity, everything. It's just get your points at running back when you can get them where you can get them.
103:52That's how I feel. That's why I'm bidding up on a guy like Will Shipley.
103:57I'm like, can we get some fantasy points this week at running back?
104:01I'm in. If I saw highly reactionary running back movement, that would make so much more sense than this highly reactionary quarterback
104:08movement that we're seeing among the public. I'm trying to just wrap my head around what to expect out of Trey Harris.
104:15Have you gotten ahead of consensus on him? Yes.
104:18They got him a wide receiver 68, bordering on a top 150 player in super flex right now.
104:24On Keep Trade Cut, he's wide receiver 68. Yeah.
104:27And we're very comfortable with this. This is another interesting element.
104:30We talk about the wide receiver position. We are very comfortable getting out ahead on wide receivers that have alpha profiles that were not first round picks.
104:39This is something that no one is more comfortable doing this than we are.
104:43Look no further than Jalen Coker. Look no further than Michael Wilson.
104:47No one has a better track record on players like this than we do.
104:52We have Trey Harris at wide receiver 40, where the consensus has him outside the top 65 wide receivers.
104:58And I couldn't be more comfortable having him in the same tier as DJ Moore and Chris Bell and Jordan Addison and
105:05Antonio Williams and players that, again, we've been way out ahead on like Devon Veilet.
105:10I wouldn't necessarily consider Devon Veilet to have an alpha profile, but we've been way out ahead on him.
105:16Like before this news came out, Cody, we had Devon Veilet ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
105:21That would be blasphemous on another podcast. He's wide receiver 16 this year.
105:25I know. I know. This is the thing at the wide receiver position in particular, it is highly inelastic among the public.
105:32When you look at consensus rankings, wide receiver moves as slowly as any position, the slowest of the positions.
105:38When you look at crowdsource data, look at Carnell Tate.
105:41We opened the show talking about Carnell Tate. Want to make sure that we were able to talk Carnell Tate.
105:48I didn't know we would be getting back around to Carnell Tate, but we are finally.
105:53We're here talking about Carnell Tate two hours in.
105:56I was worried we wouldn't get here because when we started the show, I was feeling tired.
106:01Now keep talking about these players. Marvin Harrison Jr.
106:04Gets traded. I'm super fired up. And the public is just simply asleep.
106:08And again, I'm looking at trade sourced and crowdsource asleep with Carnell Tate asleep with Trey Harris just behind.
106:14And you're seeing it. We have real trades posted in our chat.
106:18I was able to get Jacoby Lane as a throw-in basically for nothing.
106:22In fact, it was like a thumb in the eye of my trade partner because I was giving him Lamar and he
106:29was sending me back Lamar's stacking partner. That's how little the other manager in the deal valued Jacoby Lane.
106:35And we're sitting here going, we have Jacoby Lane ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
106:40We have Devon Bailey ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
106:43But the value anchoring at the wide receiver position was also stunning to me.
106:47The public is the best at valuing running back.
106:50They're over anchored at running back. I would consider the public over anchored at running back, but it's still the position they
106:57value the best when you crowdsource the data. These other positions, man, way off.
107:02Way off. I take it back. I take it back.
107:05I take it back. I take it back. Running back and tight end.
107:09I would say running back and tight end. Tight end, maybe even slightly.
107:13Tight end's not hard though. I know, but I want to make sure.
107:17Excuse me, all the tight end aficionados. Excuse me.
107:20I forgot tight end. I can't forget tight end.
107:23Tight end is probably where the values are the closest to parity between player profiler and keep trade cut.
107:29Then running back, then wide receiver, then quarterback. The quarterback is just the wackiest one.
107:34But wide receiver is also pretty damn wacky. Public is wacky, man.
107:38Passing games, public is wacky. Super anchored. Super obsessed with draft capital.
107:42Draft capital matters the most at running back. If you're a running back and you're drafted early, you're going to get fed and you're going to produce.
107:50Who was the running back comp to Marvin Harrison Jr.
107:53that they came up with? Trent. Trent Richardson. And what?
107:57And historical. He is one of the players. I mean, it's probably the best.
108:01It's probably the best overall comp, to be honest with you.
108:05Yeah. But also informs like our breakout finder app, the breakout finder in the app store.
108:10And how people that fully understand probabilities, like what it really means to be like an 80% chance of breaking out or a 70% chance of breaking out.
108:19Like how high that actually, that's a very, that's an incredibly high number.
108:23We're talking about reaching a level of super high output in a cohort where you're in an upper, upper percentile of producers
108:30to be considered a breakout in the NFL. We're talking about a thousand yard season.
108:35We're talking about like 200 fantasy points. That's rare air for any, any player that gets the league.
108:41And yet, if you were a first round running back, you're almost guaranteed to get there.
108:46Even Trent Richardson, according to the breakout finder, because he was a top 20 running back as a rookie, broke out.
108:52He broke out all over the place. The guy was a smash success in his rookie year.
108:58And then he was never heard from again. So that's the reason why that's not the closest comp because Marvin Harrison Jr.
109:05never broke out. But he got close. He had 800 and what?
109:09840? 830? 820? Something like this his rookie year?
109:12Like he didn't hit it, but. No, no. It is the closest of the running back comps.
109:17My larger point is you're going to find a bunch of good wide receiver comps before you'll run into a good running
109:24back comp for Trent Richardson because it's for Marvin Harrison Jr.
109:28Because it's just so hard for a first round running back to bust.
109:32The league will basically force them to break out and be productive in fantasy for an extended period of time.
109:38Trent Richardson was just, it's such an outlier that he couldn't do it for more than one year.
109:44It's funny. Where do you have Carnell Tate? Let's talk more Carnell Tate.
109:48I can't talk enough about Carnell Tate. I did a walk and talk for social media.
109:53You know, one of these like I'm walking, I'm walking around my backyard talking about Carnell Tate.
109:59The wind's blowing in LA. Carnell Tate, get him.
110:02Buy, buy, buy. Crazy value right now. So by windows about to close.
110:06Can we have Carnell Tate a wide receiver eight?
110:09Proudly. Proudly. The guy is in rare air to start the season with a 30% target share.
110:14He's in a class with Malik Neighbors, Puka Nakua and Drake London.
110:18And he's more versatile than Drake London. He is as I think I can see some comparisons between himself and Drake London.
110:25They're athletic profiles. He's a smaller version, but he's he's better outside than Drake London.
110:30A little more versatile than Drake London and much younger, 21 years old.
110:34Through four weeks, he has proven that he is a massive target earner.
110:38And he was already a top five pick. So if you come into the league as a top five pick, just like
110:45Malik Neighbors, we're like, OK, just show us that you can maintain what you were doing in college and the pros.
110:52And we're in and it won't take long for us to be all in on you.
110:57Didn't take us long to be all in on Malik Neighbors.
111:00And now he's showing us a few weeks. Hey, I'm the same guy I was in college.
111:06OK, you're same guy in college. We're in Marvin Harrison Jr.
111:09Couldn't do it. Like his target share was cut in it.
111:13Imagine the Carnell Tate target share cut in half.
111:16That was that was where we're like, OK, whoa, this is not what we saw in college.
111:21You got to show us. And he never did.
111:24Carnell Tate already did. So just get it over with.
111:27He's 21. Quarterback position is only going to get better.
111:30Situation is only going to get better. This is dynasty.
111:34This is not what he is at this moment in the situation he's in at this moment.
111:39Same with Justin Herbert and Marion Hampton. It's dynasty.
111:42This is going to change. This is why if you draft players like best example of all time, Clyde Edwards Hilaire, based
111:49on the situation that they're finding themselves in, as opposed to the player that they are, their profile, you're doing it wrong.
111:56In dynasty, you're doing it wrong. Carnell Tate is checking all these boxes.
112:00And if you're not getting him or you're letting him go, if you're trading him because you don't like the situation in Tennessee, then go play redraft.
112:09Go play best ball. If you have that mindset, you're never going to be anything in dynasty.
112:14If you're not out there aggressively pursuing Carnell Tate right now, quit.
112:18Quit. Quit. If you want to come in the chat and argue with me, by all means, I don't have any Carnell Tate.
112:26I'm not interested in Carnell Tate. Someone offered me Carnell Tate.
112:29I countered and took Carnell Tate out of the deal.
112:32I don't want Carnell Tate. Put it in the chat.
112:35Go ahead. Let's go at it. Talk to me.
112:38Anyone out there? Because I don't even... No matter what you say, I have only one response.
112:44Quit. Stop playing. You don't know what you're doing.
112:47Go play redraft. Go play DFS. Certainly shouldn't be listening to this show.
112:51If you're not trading for Carnell Tate, go find literally every other show about every other topic in the whole wide world
112:58is going to be a better use of your time than this show.
113:02And we haven't even talked about the other player, right?
113:05We haven't even talked about him just because I can't even talk about him, Cody.
113:10I'd rather talk about Vele, Coker, Michael Wilson. I mean, I almost like tear up just because, you know, R.C.
113:16Fisher has been through hell in the last couple of years.
113:20Anyone that knows his story, I'm not going to get into it.
113:24It's private, but he's had some challenges. And I actually get emotional thinking about, especially the Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
113:31thing. I always think about R.C., man. I know exactly what I was doing when you guys had that conversation.
113:37I know exactly where I was on this planet when you guys had that conversation about Michael Wilson and Marvin.
113:43I get him. I can feel it in my cheeks, in my nose.
113:47I can feel I don't want to go there because I got to keep my composure.
113:53But there's another level of player that is such a victory lap at this point before this Parker Washington.
113:59And it's like time and time and time and time again, sixth round pick, not the most impressive athlete, but wired the right way.
114:06The anti Marvin Harrison Jr. And yet the anchoring you see in the dynasty consensus reflected perfectly one for one with the crowdsource data on keep trade cut.
114:15You see the buying opportunity with these particular wide receiver profiles.
114:19Even now. Even now. I struggle with Parker. I know he was one of R.C.'s guys as well.
114:25But Parker's like Parker's I fought Alex for years for Parker Washington, like going on to shows and getting the him playing
114:32the the ooh, that smell like how because it's a bad take that Parker Washington like I've been I've been down to
114:39Jacksonville multiple times to watch him in training camp play behind the 19 million dollar man Christian Kirk and outperform him in
114:46practice day after day after day after day after day.
114:49And now I go. So two weeks ago, I drove down to Tampa to go to the the Buccaneer Viking game.
114:56And I drove through you get Jacksonville radio for like 50% of the drive from South Carolina to Tampa.
115:02And he's like the not only like they have Trevor Lawrence, like a clear, easy face of the franchise, but they treat
115:09Parker Washington like the face of the franchise. Like they they talk about him like he's this is going to sound crazy,
115:16but like they talk about him like he's like, I don't even know.
115:20Like they talk about him like he's like Malik neighbors.
115:23They talk about him like he's a trying to think of a historical guy that was like a face of a franchise
115:30like a like an Antonio Brown, like an Odell Beckham.
115:33Like they they speak of him like that is what I'm trying to say.
115:38It's not like, oh, yeah, part, you know, Trevor Lawrence is that in third.
115:42He's going to get the ball to the Jacoby Myers this week and Brent Strange.
115:47You make sure you get the run game going.
115:50It's it's like Parker Washington. Like who can who can stop Parker Washington?
115:54How are we going to get Parker Washington the ball?
115:57Parker Washington, this great guy, all this, that and the third.
116:01And now you're starting to really see obviously this year they still haven't paid him.
116:06And like now you're starting to see those levels in the dynasty side in the fantasy football side.
116:12And it doesn't even feel like he's he's even gotten that respect yet.
116:16Like even he has a down game two weeks ago and it's like, well, came back to under earth.
116:22You hear people talking about it. It's like this is a guy that should be consensus talked about as a top 13, 12, 13 wide receiver and dynasty.
116:31And like this off, like you look at the Jacksonville offense.
116:34I know Jacksonville historically has not been one. Like I know they've had a year here and a year there, but the
116:41last 14 games of Trevor Lawrence has been rather prolific.
116:44If we're just going to call a spade a spade here, they're 12 and two in the last 14 games.
116:51And Trevor Lawrence has been playing as good as any quarterback in the NFL.
116:55The last 14 games that came off the heels of, I think it was a loss against, I think it was the Rams.
117:03They got boat raced at home against the Rams in that game last year.
117:07And then they came back. And since then, again, they've went 12 and two.
117:12He's had something like, I want to say it's like 27 or 24 touchdown passes and like six picks.
117:18And it changed the whole momentum of this football team.
117:21They've had one loss since, uh, since Thanksgiving last year.
117:24And that was in week two to Denver. Their only two losses have been to Denver and Houston, two of the consensus best defenses in the sport.
117:33The last year that Houston loss obviously was last year, not this year.
117:37Um, but, and you put Parker Washington in the middle of that he's relegated Brian Thomas jr.
117:42To the fricking trade market. He he's, they bring in Jacoby Myers late last year and Jacoby Myers was great in the,
117:49you know, in the last eight weeks of the season.
117:53And they paid him what three years, 60 million.
117:56They paid Jacoby Myers, Jacoby fricking Myers, who nobody wanted.
117:59Right. And, and they haven't paid Parker yet. And, and the question all off season was what Matt it was.
118:05Okay. So it's say we got Parker, we got Jacoby and we got Brian Thomas.
118:10And if you knew, you knew, but there was overwhelming consensus of like all off season.
118:15You can go back to the spring to the summer to the fall.
118:19Okay. Well, like, you know, where's this guy going?
118:22Parker Washington should have been probably going in like the third, fourth round, you know, like redraft conversations.
118:28I know this is dynasty, but like the question was like, where was the pecking order?
118:33Pretty clear to me what the pecking order is pretty clear to everybody that knows anything about Jacksonville or anything around the
118:40ethos, what the pecking order is and who the leader is and what the future is.
118:45It's Trevor Lawrence and it's Parker Washington. And he should be looked at in the same vein that a Garrett Wilson gets
118:52looked at in New York, that a Malik neighbors gets looked at in New York, in New York, that a CD lamb
118:59gets looked at like a Justin Jefferson. That's what Parker Washington should be viewed as right now, especially in the dynasty.
119:06He's 24 and a half years old. So he's technically, you know, he's a year older than Malik neighbors.
119:12He's three years younger than Justin Jefferson. Like he's, he's better than a Mecca Gbuka.
119:17And I love a Mecca Gbuka and you know that.
119:20Well, that's what we have him adjacent to. We have him adjacent to a Mecca Gbuka in the rankings.
119:26You can see where we have him. We have him similar to where keep trade cut has him.
119:32Keep trade cut is almost where, where they need to be on him.
119:36Uh, they, they, they do have Carnell Tate behind him.
119:39Uh, so I wouldn't put him up with Carnell Tate quite yet, but that's where he's approaching Carnell Tate, Tett McMillan, a
119:46guy like Tett McMillan and one of the big risers, because this offense, this Carolina offense is a pass funnel offense.
119:53It was supposed to be a run funnel coming in.
119:56Now the data has come that the data has come in, that it's actually a pass funnel.
120:02That's why Bryce Young is the biggest mover in the, in the public crowdsourced rankings.
120:06Makes sense. You, you understand how it happens. We're not going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe on a potential
120:13Baker Mayfield 2024 season, but I can see how the public can fall for it with a Parker Washington.
120:20There is one governor on his rise and that is the Jacksonville offense.
120:24So one of the things that had me up late had been up late all week was recalibrating everything.
120:30Now that we have the four weeks of data, we have four weeks is the, the number that we've identified.
120:36It's, it's the first four weeks of the NFL season.
120:39There's no bi-weeks. Soon as the bi-weeks start kicking in, right?
120:43Then, then that's a different phase of the season.
120:46We look at the first month, the first four weeks as a phase of the season.
120:51And after those four weeks are a wrap, you can recalibrate your volume projections for these offenses based largely on the first
120:58four weeks through two weeks through three weeks. It's just not quite enough data through four weeks.
121:03Okay. Now the vast majority of, of the underpinnings of our volume projections comes from what you're seeing on the ground this
121:10year with these teams, what we're seeing on the ground in Jacksonville, the one governor on the lifetime value rating of both
121:17Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington is the volume. This is not a pass first team anymore.
121:23This is very much a run first team. And they were not signaling this to us that they brought in like Chris Rodriguez.
121:30That's not enough firepower. Fourth round pick facial tootin.
121:33Like that's not enough organizational investment to make you think they want to be a running team, but the defense is so good.
121:40And the offensive line is good that everything is falling into place where they are just naturally sitting on leads in the second half.
121:48And that means that Trevor Lawrence doesn't need to drop back.
121:51We have the Jaguars projected to finish number 26 in past attempts this year.
121:56That is what is holding down Trevor Lawrence because your lifetime value rating is more heavily weighted towards your production this season than it is the following season.
122:05Even the following season, this trend is likely to continue.
122:08This is not like the Jaguars are suddenly going to, everything's going to fall apart next year.
122:14I don't believe they practice next to an electric substation.
122:17So as long until they, unless they're going to build an electric substation next to the press practice facility, I can pretty
122:24much assume this team is going to be largely intact and trending in the same direction.
122:29It took the Philadelphia Eagles multiple years to collapse, right?
122:32It's been a process. It's been a multi-year process for the Eagles to become what they've become.
122:38We thought the Eagles were going to be a running team because it's Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and they let go of AJ Brown.
122:46So of course, this is going to be a run first team.
122:49But if their offensive line is bad enough, just like it is in Green Bay, running the ball is not an option.
122:56And this is another one of those teams where the correction has been dramatic.
123:01Now it's hidden by the fact that Saquon Barkley got hurt and he's 29 years old.
123:06So when you see how far Saquon Barkley has fallen on the player profiler dynasty rankings, you can't detangle what those forces are that are suppressing him.
123:15It's injury, it's age, but it's also the fact that they're projected to have less than 400 rush attempts this year, Cody.
123:22I just, it would be more interesting if there was a running back in his prime underperforming in Philadelphia.
123:28And we could point to this as the reason, but no one is getting behind any of these Philadelphia running backs anymore.
123:35I mean, I don't know what you could add.
123:38Let us know. I'll ask the chat. What could you possibly get for Saquon Barkley in trade in dynasty right now?
123:44Gosh, anything. I mean, I have him on some teams.
123:48I think I have him on at least two teams.
123:51I think they're both win now teams and it never occurred to me to try to put him on the block because
123:58I can't imagine one of my fellow win now competitors would want him.
124:02And I know a rebuilder is not going to want him.
124:06So this is a running back at age 29 in this particular situation where he's on a team that doesn't run the
124:13ball, can't run the ball, and he himself isn't healthy.
124:16It is the definition. Saquon Barkley right now is the definition of a frozen market in dynasty.
124:21Oh, these are ugly. You can't move him. And he's too good to sell now.
124:26The situation can only get better. Of course, they're going to somehow, some way improve the offensive line.
124:32It can't get any worse. But I don't know if they can do it fast enough.
124:37And he's not a bad player. It's different when you're talking about Marvin Harrison Jr.
124:42When you're talking about Quinton Johnston, these are bad players that the teams and dynasty managers should have been selling low on.
124:49Saquon Barkley is not bad. It's just that he's having a very difficult time staying healthy.
124:54And at age 29, that's kind of a wrap on your career if you're at that point.
124:59You need to be hardened to the NFL experience by the time you reach 29, which is happening with Christian McCaffrey against all odds, which I love seeing.
125:08That's what we're seeing with a guy like Derrick Henry.
125:11With Saquon, he's much more similar to like a Chris Godwin, to a player that's had lower body injuries that relies on explosiveness.
125:19When you lose that, like he's basically an older version.
125:22You could argue he's becoming an older version of like a J.K.
125:26Dobbins, where the wheels have just been run down.
125:29The tread is worn off. The suspension's gone. And just the undercarriage of the machine doesn't work anymore.
125:35He's becoming a lot more rigid, too, in his style.
125:38There's obviously, like you said, there's no more shocks.
125:41There's no more elusiveness in what he brings. And he's still north of 200.
125:45He looks like he's 235, 240 pounds, which he's not fat.
125:49But that's not easy to maintain unless you're 6'4", like Derrick Henry.
125:52But yeah, groin, knee, back issues last year, neck this year, now a hamstring.
125:57Like going to turn 30 years old in February.
126:00Like the Saquon Barkley experience, even though he's averaging five yards per carry, the receptions have come down.
126:06There's a world where he's cooked, you know. A world?
126:09There's a world where he's cooked. And there's also a world where this is the beginning of the rear end.
126:15You know, think of Adrian Peterson when he went from, you know, Washington to tennis.
126:20Tennis, what the hell was it? Arizona and Tennessee, like that whole thing.
126:24And like those seasons, I think he might have had a 500-yard season in there.
126:29And again, that's a prolific athlete that came off of an ACL in the middle of his career and burned the world down.
126:36Had a season at age 30, AP did, earned for 1,400 yards.
126:40But then after that, it was like New Orleans, Arizona, Washington, Detroit, Tennessee, Seattle.
126:45And he had a 1,000-yard season with Washington at age 33.
126:48But his style was that if Philadelphia is in offload, which again, it'd be very interesting.
126:53This division is still gettable. If Philadelphia is in offload territory offensively, which it seems like they might be, if you trade
127:00Saquon Barkley, let's say you trade him to whatever, name a team.
127:04I don't really care. Minnesota could be interesting. But again, then you're splitting the opportunities, right?
127:09Houston, he's not a running back that can go into a traditional offense like you think of what can make Adrian Peterson last longer.
127:17Well, Adrian Peterson was a traditional running back that you put an eye and you ran him downhill 25 times a game.
127:24That's not how Barkley is going to succeed. He's a modern day, much more comfortable in shotgun.
127:29And your body, your body as Derek Henry and Adrian Peterson is built to go north and south.
127:35That's not Saquon's game is what I'm trying to say.
127:38So even though he has the athleticism, the generational ability, the generational strength, power, talent to last like Adrian Peterson did.
127:45Stylistically, I don't think that that's in his record.
127:48I don't think he's going to last to 35, 36 years old.
127:52And the injuries are already stacking up. So I'm really, really, really worried about the Saquon Barkley thing.
127:58There's a lot of places he could go and make an impressive real world impact and suck in fantasy and suck in fantasy.
128:05That's probably his, the, the, the end game for him.
128:08The places he could, there's precious few places he could go and be the primary back and all those places.
128:15You don't want him in Miami. Like you don't want, you want my, you want Saquon Barkley in a Miami Jersey.
128:21That's just gross. I know teams do this inexplicably that are, should be tanking for the one-on-one and suddenly they're trading for Saquon Barkley.
128:29Like, why are you doing this Miami? Miami's not going to do this.
128:33It would be cool to see him on a team that actually really needs running back depth.
128:39Like there are a handful of teams. You go down, you go down the board.
128:43If they, if their primary back gets hurt, they're in trouble.
128:47Think about the lions. Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit. Dude, look at Detroit.
128:51Green Bay, it's irrelevant. He's going to be the same situation he's in now.
128:55That that's a mirror image running game. He'd have no space.
128:59He'd have no room to operate. He'd get no vision yards, no yards before contact.
129:04Green Bay's a doomed scenario. It's a doomed scenario for any running back.
129:08But when you're talking about, you have a special teamer in Vahki as your RB2 and Jacob Saylor as your RB3, you need Gibbs insurance.
129:16If you're going to be a competitive team, if you're going for the playoff berth and making a run this year, you
129:23need depth at the running back position. You can't afford to have an injury to Gibbs.
129:28It would be running back doesn't matter much, but it matters enough that an injury to Gibbs would be a debilitating problem.
129:35So the best place for him to go would be one of those teams that has a super strong RB1, all-purpose RB1, and very little depth behind him.
129:44I'm thinking of Cincinnati, and I'm thinking of Detroit.
129:47He'd be a massive upgrade on Samaj AP Ryan.
129:50But you have to start thinking differently about Saquon, and Saquon and the people around him, they need to start thinking differently.
129:57And they need to start pitching ideas for Philadelphia to get out of this, divest themselves of Saquon, and let him land
130:04comfortably somewhere that could use him where he can go win.
130:07Detroit would be the best possible situation. I think their Super Bowl window is closed, but that's here nor there.
130:14What about Seattle? Seattle's like the—they need backs. Charbonnet's not going to be— I mean, Charbonnet, he might be 100% by Halloween.
130:21Seattle makes a ton of sense because that's also a wheeler-dealer GM.
130:25There's another team, Dallas. I don't think they go in division like that, though, do they?
130:30That's the thing. They're not going to go in division.
130:33So there's reasons why I was thinking more like the Bengals, because that's AFC.
130:37Yeah. Right? And this is a team where you'd be a massive upgrade on Samaj AP Ryan.
130:43Yeah, the Lions. Yes, they're probably not a playoff team because their defense just isn't good enough.
130:48Well, they're a playoff team, but they're not a Super Bowl contender.
130:52Where are they right now in the standings? Who'd you say again?
130:56Detroit. No, they're 2-2. Oh, yeah. They have a negative point differential.
131:00So, yeah. Their defense is not— Yeah, they're not a—wow, they're not a playoff team.
131:05I thought maybe they'd be like a bounce in the first round type team, but they're trending towards not being a playoff team.
131:12So, all right. So winning wouldn't necessarily be in his range of outcomes there.
131:16You look at a team—to get back to the larger theme of what we've been talking about—are the teams that are most
131:23over or underperforming their volume projections either in the passing game or the running game.
131:28Yeah. The teams that are—most change their identity from preseason to week five of the NFL season.
131:34And that's Carolina. Yeah. Carolina went from a run-first team that was trying to protect their quarterback to this prolific offense.
131:40That's jarring. The Eagles went from a running team to a team that can't run the ball at all, projected to finish 30th in total rush attempts.
131:49The biggest changes that we've talked about—Jacksonville. Jacksonville was supposed to be a team that had much more invested, particularly Trevor Lawrence, in the passing game.
131:57This was a pass-first team that is now a run-first team.
132:01We'll talk about the Saints in a moment because the Saints, we knew would be pass-first, but we didn't think they would be this pass-first.
132:09I think we'll close our conversation out with the Saints because there's some real changes happening in the dynasty rankings with Saints players.
132:16But the other team, the other team where there's been a major shift, a major identity shift, and a major change from
132:23week one to week five in the volume projections for pass attempts and rush attempts, Chicago.
132:28Chicago was supposed to be a pass-first team, and they were week one with Caleb Williams.
132:33You could argue this is temporary, that they're a run-first team only because Caleb Williams is out.
132:39So we have manipulated the Chicago Bears pass-to-run ratio projections that are based strictly on the first four weeks of the season.
132:46Had to go in and recalibrate those based on the fact that Caleb Williams has not played in most of those games.
132:53And there's no way the pass-to-run ratio would be the same if it were Caleb Williams under center.
132:59Regardless, that all said, it's stunning to see the Bears way out ahead.
133:03There's two teams that are way out ahead in projected pass volume and projected run volume.
133:08The Saints way out ahead in projected pass volume.
133:11We'll talk about them in a minute. And the Bears way out ahead in projected rush volume.
133:16Even after recalibrating for Caleb Williams' return, we're projecting the Bears to have more than 500 rush attempts this year.
133:23They are a running team. If there was a team that really could use and get the most out of Saquon Barkley, it is the Bears.
133:31The Bears would be a great location for Saquon Barkley.
133:34That would be a maniacal three-headed monster. Not that they can all stay healthy, but...
133:39It would be great. It would be great. And that's one of those examples where when you look at the consensus rankings
133:46on a Kyle Manungay, it's like a different planet.
133:49When we look at Kyle Manungay, we look at Kyle Manungay and his talent profile.
133:54And we're like, this is a grinder back who's not explosive.
133:57But he is going to give you yards when called upon, yards that are blocked, and he will run hard.
134:04He will break some tackles. And he's going to score a bunch of touchdowns in the context of a prolific high-scoring offense.
134:11Yeah. That doesn't mean he's a top running back talent.
134:14That doesn't mean he should be in the upper tier of running backs in Dynasty.
134:19What are we talking about? What? I'm looking at Kyle Manungay.
134:22He is ahead of Jalen Warren on Keep Trade Cut.
134:26He's adjacent to Chuba Hubbard and Jadarian Price and DeAndre Swift and Travis Etienne Achan.
134:30And that's just not the tier he belongs in.
134:33That's not him. He is a 24-year-old back who is going to give you a game here, a game there, where Swift doesn't play or Swift is hurt.
134:42And Chicago is a running team. Again, the projections are wild on how run-heavy they are and will likely continue to be when Caleb Williams comes back.
134:51They've had success. With this game plan. And I don't think they're going to change it.
134:56They're going to change it some because Caleb Williams is going to get back there.
135:01He's going to call the plays he wants to call in certain situations, especially in the hurry up offense.
135:07But this is going to continue to be a running team.
135:10They're 3-1. The point differential is incredible. They have a plus 47 point differential.
135:15If you're the coach, you're not going to let Caleb Williams come back and just air it out when you've had such
135:22success with your backup quarterbacks in a run first offense.
135:25That was part of our recalibration was like, we're not going to see week one bears after the proof of concept of the bears being a running team.
135:34The last three weeks. I think the Mononga thing is a product of age, number one.
135:39And number two, kind of like the Tyler Algier corollary.
135:42But people see the new age thing and it's like, oh, this guy's contract is going to be up in two years.
135:49He's going to get an opportunity to be the number one somewhere.
135:53What? This is the problem. This is that it's just an uninformed people that don't have player profiler.
135:59That's vintage dynasty mindset. And like, oh, like look at DeAndre.
136:03Like, I don't even know. I'm fine with that mindset, Cody.
136:06I don't even mind that mindset. If it's a player that actually has an all-purpose skill set, Mononga does not.
136:12Yeah. There's a fundamental misunderstanding of who this player is and what he's capable of in the future.
136:18He's Tyler Algier. At best. He's a poor man's Tyler Algier.
136:22Tyler Algier is a better receiver than Mononga. And they are equivalent as runners.
136:26And in every other way, they are equivalent. It's just that Algier is a better receiver.
136:31When you look at our dynasty rankings, he is in the Algier tier of running backs.
136:36He's not in the Jalen Warren tier. These are two totally different running backs.
136:41Jalen Warren has real like 20 points per game upside.
136:44And he's been showing that he's been showing that he's been unlucky with touchdowns the last few weeks, but he's been getting the 20 plus touches.
136:52And he's been showing the dynamism in all phases that a 20 fantasy points per game running back can deliver.
136:59Mononga cannot. In fact, he is exactly Cody, exactly positioned in that Tyler Algier, Ramadre Stevenson tier.
137:04Blake Corum, they are a similar age that Corum is one year older.
137:08Corum plays the exact same role on a team that isn't, again, running the ball like the Bears did.
137:15But the Rams running game was similar to the Bears running game not too long ago.
137:20And so these are all players that belong in the same tier.
137:23And then so when I see a player that belongs in a particular tier based on his profile get vaulted, it's just
137:31like a it's like a red dot in a sea of white dots.
137:35And it's a fun discussion. It's like, well, how does that happen?
137:39Like, how does a player get mis-evaluated like that?
137:41Are these tape grinders on podcasts that are spouting some propaganda about a player that and where does it come from?
137:48He said, what do you have a game this year?
137:51He had a game where he scored a couple of touchdowns and put up a bunch of fantasy points.
137:57Kyle Monagai is good. No, I know he's good.
138:00He's had more 100-yard rushing games in two years, in a year and a half, I should say, in a year and a quarter.
138:08He's more 100-yard rushing games in his first 20 career games than Alzier's had in five seasons.
138:13He is number seven on player profiler in explosive plays.
138:17It's a small sample, but he is an explosive runner.
138:20And he's given you enough in fantasy to, like last year, running back seven, running back 15, running back eight, running back three, running back 12.
138:28Like there's enough weeks in there to where it's not like, who's our running back that Sean Tucker, Sean Tucker, right?
138:35One game in 2024, boom, RB1, right? One game in 2025, boom, RB1.
138:39And like in a standalone situation, a guy like that can get you there.
138:43And Tyler Algier on a long extended period of time has proven to say, I can give you a thousand-yard rushing season.
138:51Granted, it's not going to be something that's going to be enjoyable, but it's going to be a thousand-yard rushing season averaging
138:58four yards a carry on a bad football team.
139:00That's cool. That's impressive. Kyle Monagai has proven that he can be an asset to a starting offense and take on 30
139:08carries in a football game like he did last week and now has multiple 100-yard rushing games.
139:13And also proven that alongside a DeAndre Swift, again, this is also a seventh round pick from last year.
139:19This isn't like year four, right? And in just a couple of games this year, he's already been RB4 and RB11 with
139:26DeAndre Swift existing on this football team and playing in those games.
139:30Like even with DeAndre Swift finishing his RB5 in week one, he was RB11.
139:34He even took opportunities in week four. I know Swift got a little banged up, but so did Monagai.
139:40He has a toe and a thumb or something right now.
139:44Monagai has like a broken thumb and turf toe.
139:47Badass dude. Come on. And still finishes RB4? I'm saying he's better than Tyler Algier.
139:52I understand. Of course he's going to be RB4.
139:55Eight red zone attempts. I don't agree with the Jalen Warren thing.
139:58I agree with you. I think Jalen Warren should be viewed as higher, but I understand being 40.
140:04Four years younger. Why the consensus would put Monagai?
140:07I could understand if they put Monagai up in the top 75 at this point.
140:12Monagai is a classic dead zone back. But that's fine.
140:15He is a dead zone back. Again, as a runner, he is outperforming his athleticism on the NFL field.
140:21He has a number seven ranked EPX explosive play rating on playerprofiler.com.
140:25This offensive line is setting him up to deliver explosive plays.
140:28This offense is setting him up to deliver explosive plays.
140:32He is a product of his environment right now.
140:35But this is Dynasty and we have these guys for their careers.
140:38He is being temporarily juiced up in Dynasty because the situation he finds himself on a team.
140:44I don't think most Dynasty leaguers understand just how run heavy the Bears have been this year.
140:49If you don't factor in the Caleb Williams return will lead to more pass attempts and a higher pass to run ratio.
140:56If you don't factor that in, it's Chicago. It's going to snow and rain and cold like they're going to run the ball.
141:04If you don't recalibrate for the return of Caleb Williams, if you don't, then you would project the Bears to run more than 550 times this year.
141:12This is a moment in time running back who is getting steamed up and finds himself out of his element.
141:19He is out of his depth. He is a running back with a Blake Corum, Tyler Algier profile that is suddenly finding himself in with elite company.
141:27Elite all-purpose backs that can catch passes out of the backfield and can get there no matter what team they're on.
141:34That's never going to be Kyle Monungay. And that's a fragile Dynasty asset that is the quintessential sell high.
141:40After that performance last week, 28 points against the Jets on eight red zone carries.
141:45That is the definition of a sell high. Everything moon stars aligning for a guy that's 24 years old who is outperforming
141:52every aspect of his profile because of the situation he finds himself in.
141:56And if you didn't sell high, you missed the window because now he's got turf toe and he's week to week.
142:03And that's just how flimsy and fleeting running back values are.
142:06You got to cash in when you can. I'm going to bring this back.
142:11We've talked about coaches three or four times on this show.
142:14Wrong. Situationally, wrong. Because of David Montgomery. Because of David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs with Ben Johnson in Detroit for multiple seasons.
142:21It's a proven fact with Ben Johnson in this style of offense being run.
142:26And now even more in Chicago. I think what you've done in talking about the projection of rushing output for Chicago, which
142:33will end up leading the sport this year in rushing, even if it comes back down to earth a little bit.
142:40Because again, it's winter in Chicago. This has been the one problem with Chicago for the last decade and a half is
142:47they haven't been able to establish run in the winter.
142:50And it hasn't been able to continue for the whole season.
142:53They haven't had it. And now Ben Johnson has clearly his two back set with Swift and Mononguy.
142:59Where even if you go back to 2023 and 2024, when the Detroit Lions Super Bowl window was open, right?
143:06And you had Montgomery with 220 carries and Gibbs with 180 carries.
143:09And Gibbs obviously had three times the receptions that year.
143:13And then you had 2024 when you had Gibbs with 250 carries and Montgomery with 185.
143:18And Gibbs doubled up his receptions. Like that's clearly Swift is the Gibbs guy in this whole math here.
143:24But also Mononguy is not 27 like Montgomery was.
143:27Mononguy is more explosive than Montgomery was. I understand wholeheartedly where you're coming from in the quorum, Algier, dead zone theory.
143:33But in this situation, I think with the writing you just put on the wall and explaining this offense to a tee
143:41of what I believe will continue to happen in 2026 and maybe 2027, most likely 2027 and maybe 2028.
143:47Because of how young this offense is as a weaponry, Caleb and Rome and Luther and Colston Loveland.
143:52And they finally get this offensive line to turn the corner.
143:56And these two backs under contract for the next three years, I can safely say, and I will safely argue with you
144:03that for the next three years, we will get the same Kyle Mononguy and it's not going to disappear.
144:09I understand it. Like I understand it. And I'll take three years.
144:13That's why we do this exercise. That's why it's so important that the base, the foundation of any analysis, especially right now
144:20heading into week five, has to be the context of these offenses.
144:24These players are operating in is what is going to drive their fantasy points.
144:28And that's why it's such an important thing to do to project volume based on what we've seen the last four weeks,
144:35not necessarily to steam players up in dynasty, not just to like dramatically shift the rankings.
144:40Like we're seeing with quarterback on KTC, for example, the point of the exercise is not to do that.
144:46Certainly make adjustments. Guys that are moving up. For example, Tett McMillan.
144:50Tett McMillan is now on a pass first team quarterback.
144:54That's been efficient where there's very little other weapons.
144:56Tett McMillan's been one of the biggest risers in the dynasty rankings.
145:00And the volume is aligning with his profile as a true alpha.
145:04So there, that's jet fuel for a dynasty ranking where you have the right guy in the right position finding himself now finally on the right offense.
145:13That's the jet fuel type player where, yeah, he is being dramatically helped by this change in offensive philosophy and offensive performance and play calling tendencies.
145:21The offense has changed. He hasn't changed. He's still the elite prospect that he was.
145:26And when called upon, boom, 16 targets, 200 yards, multiple touchdowns.
145:29That's him. That's what that's Tett McMillan. What you're seeing from Kyle Mononguy is not as much him as it is.
145:36The production you're getting from Tett McMillan. Mononguy is much more of a system dependent player.
145:41An even more important takeaway from this exercise of getting all these projections right is to understand where the inefficiencies are in
145:48the perceptions of players and the valuations in the dynasty trade market.
145:52Where it's in the chat. People are talking about how Kyle Mononguy is an explosive player.
145:57He's fast. He's not. That's eye test nonsense. Player profiler exists.
146:01So, you know, as a matter of fact, Kyle Mononguy is not fast.
146:05That's the reason we built player profiler. And yet still, eye test nonsense driving player values.
146:10Why does he look fast? Because that offensive line is so good.
146:14He has runway to get up to full speed on a lot of these plays.
146:19And a lot of these plays happen to be in the red zone because that's where they're operating.
146:24And that is fleeting. That is a time to sell.
146:28And it's already too late. It's already too late because now he has turf toe.
146:32And we're going to start to see this week, maybe for the first time, eyes opened for a player that we love, Cody.
146:40We can't close this show out. Now, again, this is a dynasty show.
146:44People are going to be listening to this well after week five.
146:48But Mononguy is out. I'm trying to get this right.
146:51I've called him Mononguy for many years. I know it's Mononguy.
146:54I've been trying my best. Hopefully, I think my Mononguy rate has been higher on this show than it has in previous shows.
147:02I'm proud of my Mononguy rate. But still, I'm not 100% getting it right.
147:06We might see some Roshan. Oh, God. We might see some Roshan.
147:10And then all of a sudden, it's like, wait a second.
147:14Is this actually? Why is Roshan doing similar stuff to Mononguy?
147:17Oh, is that because the offensive line is awesome?
147:20I don't think he will. I don't think he will.
147:23Is that because the play calling and the offensive line has something?
147:27Yes, actually. So it's very possible we get to see the first glimpses of what Roshan Johnson could be in the right situation.
147:34The final thing I want to talk about, because I want to make sure I give you your flowers.
147:41I can't get you out of here without giving you your flowers on Tyler Shuck.
147:45No one was more out in front on Tyler Shuck.
147:49Tyler Shuck has delivered. And I will say, a big part of his production is the absolutely insane pass volume.
147:55But that was part of your thesis. Part of your thesis was, this is going to be a passing team.
148:01They are on pace for 600 pass attempts. And I'm here for it.
148:06I'm so here for it because I'm so heavily invested in Vele and I have a bunch of Alave and a bunch of Jawan Johnson.
148:14I'm so here for it. In these startups, I remember all these teams getting Jawan Johnson.
148:19Even when I missed on Shuck and I stacked Shuck and Alave in another startup.
148:23It was just a fun season. And I was so here for it.
148:28I just needed you to give me that reassurance that this player is a good quarterback.
148:33And we know it's going to be a prolific.
148:36We just didn't know it was going to be this prolific.
148:39So the Bears are more shocking because we did not know they would be a run first team.
148:45And they're just dominating every other team in terms of rush attempts per game.
148:49Did not see that coming at all. The Saints, we knew they could lead the league and pass attempts per game.
148:56We just didn't know it would be by such a wide margin.
149:00It's absolutely sick what they're doing. And you just need to play Saints.
149:04Jawan Johnson and Vele in particular. A lot of us have these start-sit decisions with these two players.
149:10And when you're making week-to-week decisions, that's when the volume projections matter most and will drive your decisions.
149:16So you take the volume projection and you make that be the number one driver of your weekly what's-in-front-of-you short-term decisions.
149:22And then what you do is in Dynasty Leagues, the reason I love Dynasty Leagues is because you make all these decisions.
149:29You make weekly decisions. You make season-long decisions. And then you make Dynasty lifetime decisions.
149:34That's the beauty of this game that we play called Dynasty League Football.
149:38You can then use the volume projections against your opponents in trades in Dynasty.
149:43You can use that data that we have on Player Profile, the weekly rankings, the season rankings, and the Dynasty rankings.
149:50Use that to your advantage to win this year and win your matchup this week.
149:54But then you can also build a super team for the future by using that data against your opponents in trade where
150:01you're getting players that are undervalued based on a lack of volume or a bad situation.
150:07And you know it can only get better. Or you sell it at the absolute zenith high point.
150:12And there is no better example of a zenith high point than Kyle Monunguy week four.
150:17Like that is the definition forever. We're going to use this.
150:21We have all these plaques on the wall that we point to.
150:25Certain players, certain situations. Again, Clyde Edward Solaire being the number one.
150:29It's just shorthand for getting it wrong based on situation instead of talent profile.
150:33Clyde Edward Solaire over Jonathan Taylor. Selling high on Kyle Monunguy after week four, 2026.
150:38That's going to be another one of our shorthands.
150:41As much as I've said I love Kyle Monunguy.
150:44Monunguy. Monunguy. Well, you're doing it too. Monunguy. Monunguy.
150:47It's Monunguy. Monunguy. As much as I have explained my defense, I will trade him for Devon Achan.
150:52That has happened. That has happened. Of course. Of course.
150:56Again, these are different tiers. One guy's an elite talent.
150:59The other guy's definitely not. One guy's a guy.
151:02A literal Monunguy. He's got guy in his name.
151:04He's in the right situation. Algier. Might be another shorthand for us.
151:08Where for years and years. We'll be referencing back the Tyler Shuck 2026 season.
151:13Where they were throwing the ball four times more per game than the next team.
151:18The Rams. Tyler Shuck has to be good enough to carry that offense on his shoulders as the quarterback.
151:24Otherwise, they're not calling all these pass plays if they don't think he can deliver the ball.
151:29To Olave deep. To Jawan Johnson over the middle.
151:32Valey on the sideline. Kamara in the flat. He's just a good player.
151:36The irony of him working with Valey is so beautiful.
151:39That he is the Valey of quarterback. Like a guy that was thought to be model breakingly old.
151:45It's not possible. How is it even possible that Valey can produce in the NFL?
151:50He didn't break out in college until age 24.
151:53We don't even have a comp for that. Same thing with Shuck.
151:57Doesn't break out in college like age 25. We don't have a comp for this.
152:01Remember he was comped. The only cop I can find.
152:05He's Brandon Whedon. Yeah. Brandon Whedon's the only comp I can find.
152:08Right? And I don't have a comp for Valey.
152:11Doesn't exist. And it's like, well, what if we put them together and let them showcase their skills?
152:17I mean, Valey's had as many highlight reel catches as anyone this year.
152:21Dude, that touchdown last week at the corner of the end zone was nasty.
152:26Dude, this guy's amazing. Getting that foot down was, that was some art.
152:30He's dirty. I love seeing finally the correction over time on like the Cokers and the Vales where, oh, hi, hi, hi, public.
152:37Hi, consensus. Hi, crowdsource data. Good to see you.
152:40Welcome to the club. Welcome to the party. With Devon Valey.
152:44With Michael Wilson. With Jalen Coker. With Parker Washington.
152:47And then eventually they're going to get here with Jacoby Lane.
152:50They'll get here at some point. I don't know when, but they'll get here.
152:55I apologize. I take it back. They're not there on Valey yet.
152:58I said all these other, they're there. They're all the way there with Parker.
153:03They're getting there with Wilson. They're getting there with Coker.
153:06They're getting there, man. They're not even close to there with Valey.
153:10They still have him behind Dontavian Wicks and Pat Bryant, Keon Coleman, Romeo Dobbs.
153:14Shameful. Public, you should be a shame. If you're a member of the public, shame on you having him behind Keon Coleman.
153:21Pat Bryant's on IR. Pat Bryant was never anything, never going to be anything.
153:26Get out of here. I feel like the Saints traded the pick that became Pat Bryant for Valey.
153:32I think you're right. I think you're right. That's a great recall.
153:36Let's see here. Pat Bryant. Valey draft pick trade.
153:38There is one quarterback, I will say, that we in the consensus at KTC are in lockstep on his slide, and that is Bo Nix.
153:46There's not a lot that can support Bo Nix in Dynasty right now.
153:51Not me. I'm not supporting him. Bo Nix did not have this elite NFL resume to fall back on like a Justin Herbert.
153:58So the Bo Nix projection was always small sample fragile.
154:01And so when he starts to fail, he drops very quickly.
154:05And yet he still hasn't dropped fast enough. He's dropping a lot right now in the consensus, but we have him dropping even faster, even further.
154:13If there was one player where I think Greenlight to be reactionary and very concerned and sell low at the quarterback position, it would be Bo Nix.
154:22Really? Even with Sean Payton? Sean Payton's getting the play calls.
154:25Yeah, we're out. We have Bo Nix at QB 19 now.
154:29We're out. Am I that? Let me look here.
154:32No, I'm not that low yet. We're out. And by the way, Tyler Shuck, QB 14 and rising.
154:37Marching up the rankings every week, Tyler Shuck, baby.
154:40Oh, you got me beat. Damn. You have him behind Bryce?
154:44Ahead of Bryce. Oh, no. Tyler Shuck's the real deal, man.
154:47That's the thing. That's 100% draft capital bias to have Bryce Young over Tyler Shuck.
154:52What is that? What even is that? Where does that even come from?
154:56I don't even understand that. We talked about Carolina.
154:59I think I look at the weaponry. I think I look at the talent perspective.
155:04You also have the age quotient, which you still got two years on Bryce.
155:08I think when you look at New Orleans, as much as they've done a solid job rebuilding that offensive line, they haven't
155:15exactly been awesome in the weaponry department. And Chris Olave has some volatility built in with the concussion stuff historically.
155:22And they go get Jordan Tyson, who I think helps him, obviously, but has his own problems.
155:27The running back room sucks somehow with ETN and obviously Kamara's on his last legs.
155:32But it's a piss poor run game. So there's not a lot of support there.
155:37The only thing that you can say with Tyler Shuck is that you could potentially tell yourself a narrative that they have
155:44the Detroit South narrative, which is their defense is just not good enough.
155:48And what they've proven the first four weeks of the season, I think why their passing volume has been so high is
155:55because they've gotten behind in so many of these games.
155:58And it's like the Jamison Winston thing where you're down by 20, don't care, still going to throw the football 200 times.
156:05Like, it's just, I don't think they're quite that great of a football team.
156:10They're building, they're still two years away from being a decent to good football team.
156:15Whereas like, I think Carolina is a good football team.
156:18Bryce Young put up, it was a fireworks display in the sky in week one because they were down 40.
156:24Okay. It's the same thing. Yeah. It's the same exact thing.
156:28It's just that when you look at the profile, I trust Tyler Shuck to be an NFL quarterback for the next five,
156:3510 years and not be Baker Mayfield. There's much less banana in the tailpipe risk with Shuck than there is with Bryce Young, man.
156:42I got to see more from Bryce Young. I am not sorry.
156:46I couldn't be less sorry to be slow rolling Bryce Young and out ahead on Tyler Shuck.
156:52I'm cool with that, I guess. Can I tell you something?
156:55I almost went out. I just want to tell you this.
156:59I was about to go out. I was, I was, my finger was hovering over the button to take us out.
157:06But I had an instinct that you had something else to say.
157:09I don't know how I knew that. You knew it because it's, it's, it's just a feeling.
157:15So we came into the show talking about, I don't know if I got two and a half in me.
157:21You're like, I don't got two and a half in me.
157:25No. Can't go two and a half today. Won't do it.
157:28I'm too tired. When we hit the, when we hit the three hour mark.
157:33What? We hit the three hour mark. Three hours.
157:36I, I, uh, I decided to do some research and I might've hired somebody to do some research for me.
157:42Do you know how many, you know how many episodes are a ballpark?
157:46How many episodes you've done on the songs with nasty podcast, right?
157:50Ballpark. 150. Reportedly two 21. Whoa. Since July of 2016.
157:53Okay. Okay. Do you know what the longest episode all time is?
157:57Uh, the Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards, Hilaire episode. That's the second longest all time, two hours and 26 minutes.
158:03The longest episode all time was from 2018 labeled the best of Sonic truth pod, which isn't even a full pod.
158:10It's just the best of, but that's the longest list at all time.
158:14That's three hours and three hours flat 34 seconds.
158:17So yes, technically Jonathan Taylor is the longest full form podcast.
158:20We've almost got to be by an entire hour for the longest Sonic truth nasty podcast of all time.
158:26I just looked up. We're over three hours. Yeah.
158:29I mean, we're going to mix the podcast down.
158:32So the podcast audience will probably get us at, you know, in the, at least two and a half hours live audience
158:39getting us at three hours, 20 minutes live streaming on a Saturday.
158:43My friend, we are signing off. I appreciate you very much.
158:47I really enjoy podcasting with you. This has been a great experience.
158:50Thank you to the audience. We're now well North of a thousand concurrent viewers.
158:55So they are rewarding us in the time we're spending with their attention.
158:59And I appreciate that very much. And, uh, let's, let's go, let's go build some super teams in dynasty.
159:05My friend. Transitive property square. They beat these guys.
159:08They must be better than these guys because they beat these guys, but then these guys beat these guys.
159:14So then they're better than these guys, but then these guys lost to these guys.
159:19They can't be better than these. Wait a second.
159:22Bo Nix might stink that we can neither confirm nor deny tonight, but U S forces are involved in the uprising and country of Guatemala.
159:30I cheated on the Patriots with the Eagles. Why?
159:33Randall Cunningham. Yvonne HN running back 27. Still loves Caleb Johnson.
159:36Still has Caleb Johnson, RB 30. He wasn't just kicked out of the league.
159:41He was kicked out of society. He was, he was gone.
159:44I can't believe they can have, I can't believe I'm telling people to have confidence in the topics we discussed.
159:51Okay. You could have the slightest, most minuscule amount of confidence that is possible that we may or may not talk about Deshaun Watson.
159:58But as of this moment, I am promising you that maybe potentially we might talk about him and I'm at least going to make a note about it.
160:07A bad coach will damage a team more than a good coach will help it.
160:12Go play redraft. Go play best ball. If you have that mindset, you're never going to be anything in Dynasty.
160:19If you're not out there aggressively pursuing Carnell Tate right now, one guy's a guy.
160:23A literal manung guy. Brandon Whedon's the only comp I can find.
160:27I don't have a comp for Vele. Doesn't exist.
160:30I think you're right. I think you're right. That's a great, that's a great recall.
160:35Hi, hi, hi public. Hi consensus. Hi crowdsource data.
160:38If you're a member of the public, shame on you.
160:41We've almost got a beat by an entire hour for the longest Sonics Week Dynasty podcast of all time.
