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Thinking About NFL DFS (Week 4)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 24 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 2, 2026
Published
Fri, October 2, 2026
48
Player insights
42
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingGeorge PickensJalon DanielsJeremiyah LoveKenneth GainwellNico CollinsAaron JonesBlake CorumBraelon AllenCeeDee LambChase BrownChristian McCaffreyColby ParkinsonD.J. Moore
Player analysis

Player insights

48

Aaron Jones

NegativeValue89:12

Aaron Jones is considered the worst DFS play among similarly priced running backs like Chase Brown and Jeremiah Love due to high projected ownership and age concerns.

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Blake Corum

NegativeValue28:28

Drake May's expresses skepticism regarding Blake Corum's fantasy value, noting that his standalone role is not meaningfully better than other backups and he is only a 'smash' play if Kyren Williams is injured.

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Braelon Allen

PositiveUsage79:03

With Breece Hall out, Braylon Allen is expected to start and is considered a very good DFS play at $5,200. He benefits from a favorable matchup against a Bears defense playing a backup quarterback.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeInjury21:13

Bucky Irving was limited in practice on Wednesday, but the expectation is that he will play in the upcoming game.

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NegativeUsage33:53

Bucky Irving is a potential play, though the Buccaneers' offense is generally considered an avoid. He was limited in practice, but expected to play.

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CeeDee Lamb

NegativeMatchup41:53

CeeDee Lamb remains a fine play despite a difficult matchup, with expectations that the defense will use safety help to contain him.

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Chase Brown

NegativeValue25:35

Chase Brown is viewed as a worse play than Jeremiah Love, despite his lower $6,100 price tag. He faces the league's best run defense, and his receiving role has been inconsistent, making him a fade candidate compared to other options.

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Christian McCaffrey

NegativeValue67:36

Christian McCaffrey remains a high-owned, elite-priced running back, but Drake May's suggests he is not as strong a play as Kenneth Walker given the matchup and current workload.

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Colby Parkinson

NegativeRole12:36

Colby Parkinson is viewed primarily as a blocking tight end, functioning more like a sixth offensive lineman than a pass-catching threat in the Rams' offense.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeUsage1:49

DJ Moore returned to the lineup with a 33% target share, which Drake May's views as a potential 'make-a-wish' effort by the organization to justify their investment in him, potentially impacting Dalton Kincaid's role.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveRole1:56

Despite a slow week and DJ Moore's return, Dalton Kincaid remains a central part of the Bills' offense. He has shown high productivity when playing alongside Moore, and Drake May's maintains a high rest-of-season outlook for him.

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Dalton Schultz

NegativeValue73:28

Dalton Schultz is off the table for DFS because his price is inflated from the weeks he played without Nico Collins, making him a poor value play.

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Davante Adams

PositiveValue31:56

Davante Adams is an interesting DFS play at low projected ownership (around 5%) with Puka Nacua returning, though his target volume is expected to decrease.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveValue67:36

Deebo Samuel is an interesting DFS play because he is expected to have lower ownership compared to other 49ers stars, especially if Mike Evans is sidelined.

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Drake Maye

NegativeInjury0:00

Drake Maye's shoulder is fine according to the team, and he was not added to the practice report with an injury; the concern is dismissed as unfounded.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveProjection82:09

Geno Smith's improved play for the Jets makes Garrett Wilson a strong DFS option, with Drake May's feeling great about his outlook.

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George Kittle

PositiveValue67:48

George Kittle is expected to see high ownership in DFS this week due to a lack of obvious cheap tight end alternatives on the slate.

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George Pickens

NegativeMatchup41:53

George Pickens is a fine play, likely to be shadowed by Derek Stingley Jr. due to his static alignment on the field.

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PositiveBreakout73:53

George Pickens is a strong DFS target at $6,300 with projected ownership around 8-10%. He is expected to have an 'explosion game' soon, and the Texans' secondary has shown vulnerability to big plays.

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J.K. Dobbins

NegativeRole64:08

J.K. Dobbins is currently serving in the primary role for the Chargers, but Drake May's compares his situation to being on a bad team, noting he is essentially playing the role that was expected of others.

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Jacob Cowing

NegativeSleeper67:22

Jacob Cowling is a potential deep-league or DFS punt option if the 49ers are forced to play him due to injuries, though he is physically undersized.

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Jadarian Price

NegativeBust99:01

Jadarian Price is no longer a recommended DFS play as his usage has failed to materialize and he has committed costly errors.

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Jalon Daniels

NegativeProjection22:12

Jalen Daniels is expected to struggle with turnovers and interceptions, which could negatively impact his fantasy performance despite his fun playstyle.

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NegativeProjection33:31

Jalen Daniels is a $4,400 DFS option for his first start. While he was a fun college player, Drake May's does not expect him to lead a highly efficient NFL offense as a UDFA rookie.

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James Cook

PositiveValue6:54

James Cook is a strong DFS play in the Bills' high-powered offense. While he lacks 'bunnies' (one-yard touchdowns) due to Josh Allen's goal-line usage, he is a top-tier runner who provides value through yardage and long-run potential.

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Jaylen Wright

NegativeUsage93:48

Jalen Wright is not considered DFS viable due to an expected backfield split with Ollie Gordon and a lack of price adjustment by DFS sites.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveValue24:05

Jeremiah Love is considered the best running back play on the slate and a potential lock button play if ownership remains under 25%. He has seen a significant role increase, including 28 touches last week, and his previous limited usage was due to recovering from a high ankle sprain.

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PositiveValue90:10

Jeremiah Love is preferred over Aaron Jones for DFS lineups due to better value and lower expected ownership.

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Jordan Addison

NegativeValue87:39

Jordan Addison is a potential chalk play if Justin Jefferson misses time, but Drake May's is generally wary of playing chalky mid-tier wide receivers in DFS.

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Kalif Raymond

PositiveProjection77:13

Khalif Raymond is objectively a great DFS play, projecting as the best points-per-dollar wide receiver on the slate, despite personal distaste for the player.

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Keaton Mitchell

NegativeUsage64:03

Keaton Mitchell is currently in the RJ Harvey role within the Chargers backfield, making him only a borderline DFS play in specific favorable matchups.

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Kenneth Gainwell

NegativeUsage21:18

Kenny Gainwell is a fade candidate at his $4,700 price point, especially with Jalen Daniels at quarterback, due to concerns over low play volume and uncertainty regarding his role increase versus Sean Tucker's involvement.

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NegativeBust35:43

Drake May's advises fading Kenny Gainwell if he becomes highly owned, citing concerns over low play volume and uncertainty regarding his role split with Sean Tucker.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection64:38

Kenneth Walker is considered one of the top two or three players in fantasy football and is a high-priority target for DFS lineups this week due to his elite volume and role.

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Kenyon Sadiq

PositiveUsage82:13

Kenyon Sadiq is a recommended DFS play following a 55% route rate last week. He is expected to see a 65-70% route share this week and is considered a viable stack option with Geno Smith.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveUsage25:01

Kyren Williams is a strong DFS play at $5,900. He maintains a superior role to Blake Corum, handling pass-down work and two-minute drills, and remains the clear starter for managed leagues.

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeUsage100:42

Ladd McConkey is considered the clear wide receiver one for the Chargers, but he is only borderline DFS playable due to the team's overall offensive struggles.

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Luther Burden

PositiveUsage77:00

Luther Burden is considered an objectively great DFS play, having recorded 11 targets last week. He remains a preferred target regardless of whether Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum starts at quarterback.

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Nico Collins

PositiveInjury41:29

Nico Collins is expected to play this week, which should improve the Houston Texans' offense in a good matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

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PositiveProjection72:00

Nico Collins is considered a clear-cut top-10 wide receiver and the best player on the Texans offense. The team's offensive performance significantly declines without him, and he is the only Houston player recommended for DFS lineups this week.

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Ollie Gordon

NegativeUsage93:48

Ollie Gordon is not considered DFS viable due to an expected backfield split with Jalen Wright and a lack of price adjustment by DFS sites.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection64:44

Patrick Mahomes is a strong DFS play at $6,500, though his ceiling may be capped by the Chiefs' tendency to play conservatively in the second half of games.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeInjury11:50

Puka Nacua is expected to play, but his history of leaving games for the locker room creates volatility. He is priced at $7,500, and there is uncertainty regarding his role in 13 personnel packages if he is load-managed.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeUsage65:13

Rashee Rice's fantasy value is negatively impacted by the Chiefs' elimination of RPO plays, which were previously a major source of his production.

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeProjection0:37

Rhamondre Stevenson is considered unplayable for DFS this week due to the expectation that the Patriots will be blown out by the Buffalo Bills.

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Tyler Higbee

PositiveSleeper12:22

Tyler Higbee is an interesting large-field MME play at $3,100. While his role is unclear due to the Rams' tight end rotation, he has shown 11-target upside in the past.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeUsage65:36

Xavier Worthy is struggling to find a consistent role, as the Chiefs have shifted short-area screen work to Rashee Rice, leaving Worthy without a clear path to high-volume production.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage33:17

Zay Flowers is a strong play at $6,900 with a smash matchup, and he can be played alongside Derek Henry in lineups.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

965
0:00Stop asking about Drake May's shoulder. It's fine. It's fine.
0:03There's nothing wrong with Drake May's shoulder. Vrabel says it's fine.
0:07I mean, it's certainly nothing that he was added to the practice report with a shoulder injury.
0:12I mean, certainly that wasn't a decision made, you know, after the fact, after Drake May keeps complaining about the shoulder.
0:18I am so down, Jacob, on the New England Patriots that my most bidded on defense this week and high stakes fantasy
0:25football waivers was the Buffalo Bills defense. I mean, I just like I just I just think this is where we're at with the New England Patriots.
0:34It's like we don't frankly this week. You know what?
0:37We don't we can actually skip the Ramondre Stevenson, Trevion Henderson discussion because it doesn't fucking matter.
0:42They're going to get they're going to get blown out by the Buffalo Bills.
0:47Yeah, I mean, that that's that feels quite correct.
0:49I saw like an NFL Network power rankings this morning that put the Patriots at 31 behind the Miami Dolphins, which is
0:56like, obviously incorrect, but is really funny nonetheless. And yeah, it's pretty bleak right now in in Patriots world.
1:02So I don't think we even need to talk about this team.
1:06I don't think any of them are remotely playable.
1:09No, the interesting thing for DFS this week is DJ more returns to the lineup last week has a 33% target share
1:16clearly came at the expense of our boy Dalton Kincaid, who I think you and I both like rest of season rankings wise are pretty high on.
1:24Honestly, in a way I did not anticipate like to me, the DJ more stuff is very make a wish power of
1:31friendship like Josh Allen being like man, I got to make sure to get this guy's numbers because you know, we went
1:38out really as an organization and stuck our necks out for this guy.
1:42Whereas Kincaid looks like he's playing, you know, basically the best football of his career right now.
1:47I would really like to play some Kincaid lineups this week because it looks like ownership at tight end is going to be very, very consolidated.
1:56But if DJ more is going to step back in and have this role, then I'm thinking I'm thinking probably no.
2:02I'm not that worried about Kincaid like he had like more had a really nice role in week one and Kincaid still had a really nice role.
2:11And then I think people have kind of ignored like the second game because more left injured, but he played almost the whole first half.
2:18I think he left that game with only a couple minutes left in the first half and he got injured on his first target of that game.
2:27Kincaid was already having a really nice start to the game before more got hurt.
2:32So I like we've seen Kincaid be quite productive for six quarters playing next to DJ more and then he just had a slow game this week.
2:40Yeah, I mean he doesn't like he doesn't play as much as a Brock Bowers or a Trey McBride.
2:46He plays a lot more than he played previously.
2:49But I do think that that like some of that role limitation kind of meant that like weeks like this last week,
2:56I feel like we're always part of the range of outcomes like it.
3:00We kind of felt like through two weeks it was like, oh my God, is this guy just going to score, you know, 20 points every single week?
3:09It's like probably not. Leone, who was really high on Kincaid coming into the season, kind of said last week, like, I
3:15still think there's a floor here that we just haven't seen yet.
3:19And I'm a little bit afraid that we'll see it this week.
3:23So shout out to him on that call. But anyways, I don't it didn't like drastically change how I viewed Kincaid.
3:30The fact that he has that floor game potential, like I definitely think he should be projected below more straight up each week.
3:37But I definitely still think Kincaid like remains a very central part of the offense, especially because it's not like any of
3:44the other secondary options particularly produced last week. So I think it's it's more in Kincaid are the two guys here.
3:50And then in any given week, Shakir or Coleman, you know, or whatever could have like a kind of a random pop off game.
3:58But it seems like on the aggregate of the time that they've played the season, it's clear there's a top two.
4:04But I don't think that it necessarily will always be all more and no Kincaid or all Kincaid and no more like it was in week two.
4:13Right. So you're I mean, you're like the only James Cook correspondent.
4:17I know other than other than Chess Liam. I mean, do you view this as a cook spot?
4:22I would I would think probably no. I wouldn't say I'm a James Cook correspondent.
4:27Like I was pretty low on him in like seasonal rankings.
4:30I was not one of these FFPC boomers taking him at like the 105 and the 106.
4:36I just played a lot of him in DFS last week.
4:39Because like, yeah, I mean, it just felt like coming into last week.
4:43You know, it was like two weeks into the season.
4:46The Bills look like the best offense in the NFL.
4:49And all of a sudden, no one had any interest in playing James Cook anymore because Josh Allen stole his touchdowns.
4:56And it was like he's 6900 and like he's going to be like virtually unplayed in a game that everyone thinks we're going to win a blowout.
5:04Like that seems kind of wild. And he did outscore Ken Walker last week.
5:09So that that worked. I had I finished fifth actually in that contest that I was sweating last week.
5:15And I was so ticked at myself because I had that lineup until about 15 minutes before lock.
5:20I had it with Michael Wilson and Titans D.
5:23And then I had I had I don't put four lineups last week and two of them had Michael Wilson in it.
5:30And I decided to swap off Michael Wilson in that one.
5:34And I went with Xavier Worthy and Vikings D instead.
5:37That was the difference between fifth and second. So it's pretty, pretty tilting to watch Michael Wilson go for like 26 points.
5:44As my as my lineup fell from first to fifth.
5:47But anyways, the James Cook play last week was good.
5:50But unfortunately, the lab play that I paired it with didn't really do quite as much.
5:55I think he's fine this week. I think he's fine like every single week.
5:59He will have a chance to score touchdowns. It does seem like last year it felt like it was about 50 50
6:06whether they would give it to James Cook or Josh Allen from the one.
6:11That does not feel does not feel 50 50 this year.
6:14No, like James Cook's touchdown was what from the four to five last week.
6:18That's where he's going to need to score his touchdowns.
6:21So he's he's basically in like 2024 Saquon Barkley range right now.
6:25I think which is yeah, he's he's one of the best runners in the NFL.
6:30He's in the best offense in the NFL. He is not going to get very many targets though, and he is never going to score one yard touchdown.
6:39So you are your degree to which he is going to pay off for you is pretty dependent on can he rush
6:46for over 100 yards and like can he hit a long run and can he him can he get touchdowns from the three or beyond.
6:53Yeah, yeah, he will not be getting he will not be getting any bunnies.
6:58I mean this game honestly, it should be a good game, but it's just not going to be a good game at
7:05all due to whatever is going on with Drake May the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles.
7:10This game is interesting for a couple reasons. The first being sounds like Puka is going to play.
7:16He is priced down at 7500. He is 15 $1,500 less on draft kings than Jackson Smith and Jake, but I would
7:23assume Puka playing means he is a full go.
7:26I don't think I mean our experience with Puka in the past has been he will leave and go to the locker room three times in a game.
7:34But when he is, you know active and on the sideline, he is playing every single snap.
7:40Then the secondary interesting thing is that Higby would have projected as massive chalk with no Ferguson and no Puka.
7:46But now we are having to do the mental gymnastics up.
7:49Well, what does the tight end rotation look like with Puka back but no Ferguson and Parkinson might play Parkinson?
7:56I think probably will play but he's going to play the same way he played last week where I frankly I think
8:03Colby Parkinson is just he's like a sixth offensive lineman.
8:06Now I think the way my my read of what they did with the tight end room in the offseason and maybe
8:13you would disagree with this is they reconfigured the tight end room around Ferguson's position instead of Parkinson's position.
8:19And Parkinson is now the Davis Allen he he is not he is not the one in there to draw targets he's
8:25the one in there to block like I would I would imagine if we pulled up the next gen stats stuff or
8:32the true media stuff Parkinson probably has not moved before the snap once yet like he's not been in motion he's not gone across the formation.
8:41Whereas Higby Higby and Ferguson like every snap they're moving before before the ball is snapped.
8:46So in week one. We saw like Higby had almost no role.
8:49He played a little bit while Parkinson was at Parkinson's no Davis Allen was the one who got banged up at some point.
8:57But they're they're starting 13 personnel package in that game was Allen Parkinson and Ferguson.
9:01And then like I definitely think in the 13 personnel package Ferguson is the primary pass catching tight end.
9:07That's that's clearly the case if when he's healthy.
9:10Right. Right. And then in that game one. When they went to 11 personnel.
9:14It was either Ferguson or Parkinson who was staying on as the pass catching tight end and they kind of rotated.
9:21And then in week two. I I actually I don't recall like fully seeing the row rates but I'm I'm I'm let
9:28me pull it up because I'm pretty sure it was the same.
9:32Um and then what happened in week three was that like after both Parkinson and Ferguson got hurt then Higby sort of became that pass catching guy.
9:40But I'm not totally sure that he would even be ahead of Parkinson in that role.
9:45Maybe he would be so like okay so so week three.
9:48Yeah week two Ferguson ran 23 routes. So he is separated from Parkinson as the kind of like 11 personnel route running
9:55tight end although I barely played any 11 personnel in that.
9:59That's the thing is and I don't think they're going to play very much 11 and then either.
10:04Parkinson ran 10 routes. Davis Allen ran five. He ran only four routes in week two.
10:09I thought 33. Higby I think this is my projection.
10:13Higby I think is Ferguson's backup. That's that's my reading of the situation is that Higby is like Parkinson because you know
10:20we're used to talking about tight ends in terms of like okay you have your blocking tight end.
10:25You have your move tight end right but that's not the way the Rams offense works.
10:30The way the Rams offense works is like you've got our move tight end.
10:35We've got our blocking tight end and then we kind of have this third tight end.
10:40I wouldn't even know what to call this third tight end role but you have like the Ferguson role the Davis Allen
10:46Parkinson role and then the reserve tight end role that basically is kind of out there for these Devontae Adams 13 personnel snaps.
10:54I guess now Pukin Akua 13 personnel snaps and my read is the three tight ends in base personnel would be Parkinson
11:01Ferguson Davis Allen with Higby as the reserve. And then I guess another wrench to be thrown is Claire will be active
11:07for this game and probably will write his first probably will get his.
11:11Yeah, I don't think he'll be a big part of the he'll be active I think but the Rams just like they love to slow play a rookie.
11:20I think I think Claire will see his role increase in 2027.
11:24Like I I'm sure he'll play some snaps, but I don't I don't think he's a major threat.
11:30I mean this is very this is very inside baseball like probably too much honestly for this show, but Ferguson's when not
11:37his first active week, but his first spike in playing time was the game that Puka missed in the London game last year.
11:44He caught a touchdown in that game and I wonder if Ferguson now missing then provides that spike in playing time for Claire.
11:51I don't think so. I don't think so, but it's another reason to be unclear about Higby.
11:56Yeah, I think he'll play like a few snaps would be my expectation for Claire.
12:01I just think that it's really I mean Parkinson might not play so it may not matter, but I don't think it's
12:08as clear cut that he'd be would be ahead of Parkinson as a pass catcher.
12:13He wasn't in the first two weeks. I just think like really I think what it comes down to is is who
12:19is the pass catching tight end and or who plays in 11?
12:23Because I guess that's the other thing is that if if Puka is back this week, I think we will see a lot less 13.
12:31We're still going to see a lot of 13 that they love running 13, but I don't think we'll see quite as
12:38much of it with Devante and Puka because they're going to want to play those two together plenty.
12:44Right. And then who is the who is the tight end in 11?
12:48Because for the first two weeks, it was Parkinson on early downs and Ferguson on passing downs for the most part.
12:54And it was never Higby. And then it was Higby in week three, but Parkinson came in questionable and then he got
13:01hurt and maybe he misses this game and then it's clearly Higby.
13:05But I think there's a lot of moving parts.
13:08The other moving part is who is the wide receiver in 13 personnel, because in a lot of 2025, it was Devante Adams.
13:15And then late in the season and into the playoffs, they swapped that role to Puka.
13:20And in week one, it was Puka. But like now Puka is dealing with an injury.
13:25Adams has looked fantastic for the last two weeks.
13:28I'm guessing it's going to be Adams and Puka will be load managed.
13:32Um, but that's a huge, like input volatility spot because that could totally go either way.
13:37It could be Adams. It could be Puka. It could be split.
13:41It could be. Yeah, I would, I would guess, honestly, I would actually guess Puka will not get load managed that much.
13:47Truly. Like that, that really is my guess. I think if he plays, he's playing.
13:52They, they just, there, there's not that many examples of Puka being load managed.
13:57Like if anything, if anything, he has a higher risk of re-injury in this game that I would actually buy.
14:03I mean, we've seen this with Puka a ton where he gets banged up in games.
14:08Uh, I remember, I believe it was week one or week two.
14:12We were doing the ship cast last year and we had Puka's receiving overs and he literally left the game three times.
14:18Um, yeah, just, just completely, completely insane. I mean, that's a long way of saying I really would like to play Tyler Higbee at 3,100, but I think.
14:27I don't, I certainly don't think you could do it in like cash or anything.
14:32I do think he's, it's like pretty interesting in large field MME.
14:36Cause I, he's not going to end up projecting that well, but I do think he does have, I mean, 11 target upside or whatever, whenever he had.
14:44Two other things from this game. Uh, I mean, Puka himself, depending on what the projected ownership will be, I'm going to guess.
14:52It ends up not being that high. Like he'll get owned, but he will not get owned.
14:57Like if he had a full projection, which makes him very interesting.
15:01And frankly, Jacob, I know you are loathe to admit this, but Kyron Williams at 5,900.
15:06I mean, he just is a very, he's just a very good play.
15:10He is getting, he is getting, um, like he's getting work like at the beginning of last season before Corum had started
15:17to really, uh, dig into his overall usage. Yeah.
15:20Yeah. Last week was a bit of a departure from the usual rotation.
15:24They, what they've typically done since the middle of last season is that it's basically a drive by drive rotation, but Kyron
15:31gets the pass down work and like two minute drill stuff.
15:34Yep. And then like in games, like they completely control, like week two, the snaps are relatively even.
15:40Um, and they, they were in that case. And then in games where they fall behind, like in week one, then Kyron gets all the comeback mode stuff.
15:48And so he gets, he plays a lot more snaps.
15:51Um, it gives Kyron a really nice floor because like either they get, either they get ahead, which means the snaps are
15:58pretty even, but probably Kyron has scored a touchdown.
16:01Um, as part of how they get so far ahead, or they're in a really tight game or coming from behind, in
16:08which case Kyron's just going to play more snaps.
16:11And then he's going to get us for that way last week, Kyron was just getting more snaps.
16:17And I think because that's like the best game of football, Kyron Williams ever played.
16:21Um, I was like consistently impressed by Kyron Williams.
16:24And I think that they rode the hot hand a bit there.
16:28I, I think that if they were to win this game quite convincingly, um, it's more likely than not, we would just
16:35see the rotation we saw in week two. Like, I think that was kind of a one game thing.
16:41I don't know that we're just going to see 70, 30 split for the rest of the season.
16:46I still think they really like quorum, but like Kyron is the much better play.
16:51It's a lot of 50, 50 committee. His roles is definitively better.
16:55He's the one that you start in managed leagues.
16:58Um, and, uh, yeah, I think he's a totally fine play 5,900.
17:01I would say that like, I'm not really a Kyron truther, but I've been so radicalized by like not understanding the quorum
17:08thesis all off season that I've like almost become a Kyron truther.
17:12Um, because I wasn't really drafting that much of either of them, but I, I was so perplexed by the quorum price
17:19that I'm probably less offended by, by like the existence of Kyron Williams than I usually am.
17:24I've been a Kyron Williams truther against my will.
17:27Like having to be in on Kyron Williams, like a, a fricking four RAS guy who like actively isn't even good, but
17:34having to draft this guy and be above market on this guy has been very annoying to me.
17:40Like he, but he's just like the lead running back of like one of the five best offenses in football and people have become enamored by this backup.
17:48Who's not even good. Like generally speaking, a quorum type that people love is like a nine and a half RAS guy who caught passes in college.
17:57And like, you know, generally like a small school guy, generally not a big school guy.
18:02You know, it's like, I mean, Pollard obviously is the best example of this Ben Tate.
18:07The more, uh, if you're a millennial like me, you remember the Ben Tate, but like quorum to be like, well, what was his closing ADP and BBM?
18:16Like the running back 34 or something like round seven.
18:19I, I, I just didn't really understand this at all.
18:22I, I actually got it a little bit more in best ball because at least with quorum, the case you, you could
18:29make for him, if he has a lead contingent value, but he has like a best ball, best ball viable standalone role that other backups don't have.
18:37I didn't get his redraft price at all because I'm like, you're never starting this guy.
18:42I don't think with Kyron active and in redraft, his standalone role is like not meaningfully more valuable than.
18:48C rod like Emmett Johnson's or like anyone's like, it's like, right.
18:52Like the difference between a player who projects for seven points per week versus.
18:56Yeah. And, and, and four points is completely meaningless and managed.
19:00It's, it's meaningful in best ball because you know, of that seven, there'll be weeks that are 11 or weeks that are 12.
19:07But yeah, I never understood the case in, in managed.
19:10Of course, if Kyron Williams does go down, quorum will be a complete smash, but I think he requires that.
19:16Are you into playing? I mean, Adams will not get owned this week with Puka back.
19:21So I think you can honestly do one of two things like, and this is a good spot to do it because
19:28the Rams passing stuff is so condensed, but like Adams is going to be like 5% owned this week, honestly.
19:34Um, so I think that's, uh, I think that's kind of an interesting spot, although his target volume is going to decrease a ton.
19:42Yeah. I'm, I'm, I would be more. Hmm. Yeah.
19:45I'm going to have to think about playing those Rams wide receivers.
19:49Like, I don't know that we're going to get reporting on who's going to play in 13 personnel.
19:54That's just, doesn't feel like the kind of thing that we're usually going to get like beat reporting on.
20:00But my inclination would be that it's Adams. So I think I would be more likely to play him than Puka.
20:07Yeah. All right. Uh, give me the green Bay Packers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
20:11Jalen Daniels will be starting this game. He is 4,400.
20:15So your classic, uh, puke start. I mean, frankly, uh, we can probably get through this game very quickly because there's one
20:21guy I want to play in this game. His name is Matthew golden.
20:26Uh, that's it for me. No crap, no Lloyd.
20:28Uh, no Bucky really. Even for me, you could, you could talk me into Bucky Irving.
20:33Um, love doubles. I think you could get away with, I mean, are the Buccaneers going to be able to do anything offensively in this game?
20:42Like honestly, the Packers defense has been quite bad.
20:44Um, so maybe they're able to run. What, what's your read here?
20:48Yeah, I think the bucks are probably just an avoid.
20:51I think they're going to, you're going to see like the Malik Willis experience, but probably with a worse quarterback.
20:57I kind of like Jalen Daniels. I thought he was fun in college.
21:02I think it was the 2023 season. Very fun.
21:04That he was like on the fringes of Heisman contention through five weeks.
21:08I think Kansas started five or five and over six and over that year.
21:13Things really unraveled for them. And then, uh, Daniels got hurt kind of early-ish in that season.
21:18And anyways, but, um, I don't expect him to lead like a highly efficient NFL offense as a UDFA rookie in his first start.
21:26I would be thrilled if he did, but that can't be the base case, obviously.
21:30Um, if somehow Bucky doesn't play, which I think he will, he was limited in practice on Wednesday.
21:36So I'm guessing he's going to play. If he somehow didn't, I'm really interested to see how the field would play Kenny Gainwell.
21:43That would be like a spot where I would really love to fade if he came in owned just based on the potential low play volume.
21:51Um, yeah, and I would love to fade that.
21:54Like if we could get a really owned running back on a team starting a UDFA quarterback, where there's also some uncertainty
22:01about how much Kenny Gainwell's role would increase and how much Sean Tucker would factor in.
22:06Like I would just really love to fade an owned Kenny Gainwell.
22:10I hope that's not the case because I hope Bucky Irving plays for like my managed teams, but I just want to
22:17flag that I would not be in on $4,700 Kenny Gainwell with Jalen Daniels, a quarterback.
22:22But, um, yeah, Packers wise, I would be, I'll be definitely playing Golden and I'll, I'll be very open to playing Watson
22:29and I'd be pretty open to like playing Jordan Love with either or both of those.
22:34I don't think I would be playing any other Packer.
22:37Yeah. Uh, yeah, that, that marks my theory. I mean, Golden, I don't even think we need to give him the honorific of gold star play.
22:45He just is like an absolute jam. Um, this dude, this dude is wide receiver to in expected fantasy points this year and fantasy football.
22:53Like he just is having an unbelievable usage. Um, and I don't think the usage is going to change at all.
22:59I mean, I guess actually an interesting thing about this game is the, is the Packers defense at 3,200 against jail Daniels.
23:06Like, I don't know how many pass attempts we're going to see, but Daniels ate a ton of sacks in college.
23:13Um, if you're looking for a reason to play jail and Daniels, I will say this, his backup, literally his backup at
23:20KU, uh, was the Colts backup quarterback. Yeah. Was, was the Colts backup quarterback for a stretch, uh, last year and as better good UFL quarterback.
23:28So like, I don't know. I mean, if you want to say that jail Daniels is better than that guy, uh, which
23:35he is, he, I would encourage you before you make your decision, just go watch like five minutes of jail and Daniels, like just bombs or whatever.
23:43He is pretty fun, but he's going to, he's going to turn the ball over.
23:48He's going to have like one interception. It'll just completely melt, uh, your brain in this one.
23:53All right. The Arizona Cardinals traveling to play at the New York giants, uh, the giants.
23:58How are the giant season going? They're home dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.
24:02That's how the New York giant season is going.
24:05Uh, Jeremiah love. I don't think it's going to end up being mega chalk based off the stuff that I'm looking at.
24:12I want to play the shit out of Jeremiah.
24:15I'm going to be mega chalk. I think he's going to be, I think he's going to be owned, but I don't
24:22think he is going to be like one of the three most owned.
24:26Players on the slate. Yeah. Based off. I looked at, I looked at rotor grinders ownership.
24:31I looked at ETR ownership. I looked at our ownership.
24:34I don't see him as like we are algorithmic ownership.
24:37Doesn't have them that owns. Um, he's 16% on ETR and he's 14% on rotor grinder.
24:42So not like mega, mega chalk. Well then he will be in 100% of my lineups.
24:47Yeah, I completely agree. He's going to score like 27 points here.
24:51Yeah. Yeah. I, I think he is like pretty decisively the best play on the slate.
24:56He, I mean, it's actually, it's actually, okay. So, so like I, this is, this is, I mean, I wonder if this
25:03is something where like the algorithmic ownership has to shift towards the actual public over the course of the week.
25:09And, you know, it's Thursday. So I haven't heard of like everything the public is doing, but like, like the, the algorithmic
25:16ownership seems to be favoring, um, like Aaron Jones over Jeremiah love.
25:20And like, absolutely not. Yeah. Like that's the way in the world in which that's what I'm doing with my life.
25:26That's the way all, every, every site that I just checked has Aaron Jones projected for more ownership.
25:32Right. Yeah. Also like chase Brown, but like, okay.
25:35Okay. So I understand that like the preseason expectations, chase Brown was going higher, um, than Jeremiah love.
25:40No one thinks that chase Brown's better at football than Jeremiah love.
25:44Like chase Brown doesn't even think that chase Brown's mom doesn't even think that.
25:48No, no one thinks that. Um, and now they basically have the same role, right?
25:53Like they, they each are getting all of the touches and they share their backfield with a, a guy who plays like
26:00some third downs and like occasionally mixes in on early downs.
26:03Like Tyler Algiers role this last week is not meaningfully different than some JP runs role.
26:08Um, and then they, yeah. Okay. Chase Brown obviously plays the Bengals.
26:12That's better than playing on the Cardinals, but they play the best run defense in the league this week.
26:18And chase Brown plays the giants who are very much not that like I would way rather play.
26:24I would much rather have Jeremiah love for the rest of the season than chase Brown.
26:29And I would much rather have Jeremiah love this week than chase Brown.
26:33The only reason why Jeremiah love wasn't a first round redraft pick was that we knew we were going to have to
26:40deal with some Tyler Algier bullshit for. And we thought the Cardinals were going to be worse than this also.
26:46Right. And we thought the Cardinals were going to suck.
26:49The Cardinals are fine. And the Tyler Algier bullshit lasted two weeks.
26:53Like it's, it's kind of, it's kind of bizarre that we haven't reacted more.
26:57I mean, I thought Jeremiah loves price was kind of crazy to begin with.
27:02I thought the people who were fighting him after two weeks were like a bunch of clowns that had never watched an NFL season before.
27:10And that don't understand this is what happens with rookies.
27:13Um, like I, I had him in my top 12 rest of season before this last week, but it's kind of crazy if people aren't acting on this.
27:21Anyways, maybe this will be all for not. And he's going to come in 30% owned because people are going to look at the algorithms.
27:29They're going to piss on them over the course of the next three days.
27:34I don't know, but I like him a lot.
27:36I like him a lot more than Scadaboo on the other side too, who I also kind of like is his role improved last week.
27:44But love like would be a lock button play if he's less than like 25% owned.
27:49Yeah. Which, and frankly, I think he's probably a lock button, even if he does end up being the most on running back.
27:57Like I, I don't, I don't actually really care.
27:59I just think this is sort of like, to me, this is like, um, we got a couple of weeks like this
28:06last year where you and I locked button Ashton Gentry.
28:09Like just like, if it's a good spot for him, you got to just do it.
28:14And this is the spot, this is the spot where, um, he's a, he's going to be able to, I mean, what'd he get last week?
28:2328 touches. I think last week, uh, I would assume something like that.
28:27And if you're looking for a reason why they would have stopped pushing the Algier button and started using love, it's very easy to forget.
28:34This dude had a high ankle sprain six weeks ago.
28:38They were easing him back in. I assume his ankle probably feels better.
28:42Um, yeah, I'm, I'm completely all in. And he's, he's, he is the best running back play this late.
28:48I'm, I'm completely with you on that. I would, Jacob, I would love right now to be like, yeah, dude, this is the neighbor spot.
28:55I'm, I'm worried. I'm worried. It's not happening, man.
28:58I'm worried that all my, my neighbor's closing line value is actually worth zero fucking dollars.
29:03Uh, yeah, I'm very worried about that. And I'm, I'm also regretting.
29:07I can't think of a play. I, I can think of plenty play, plenty of plays that I was in on all year that I wish I wasn't.
29:16And plenty of plays that I was out on all year that I wish I was in on.
29:21All of the plays that I was out on for 75% of the summer and got in on at the very end seem like things that I regret.
29:30Like I, I, I very much regret going from a 0% neighbors person to, to hitting him hard at the end of August.
29:37I very much regret being a price fader and getting in on that being a Hampton fader and getting in on that.
29:44Uh, yeah, it's, it's looking bleak. I, I'm maybe Jameis figures it out here.
29:49I don't know. It's a, it'll be nice for him to not be in the nor'easter, but he's looked dreadful for the last couple of weeks.
29:57I think that the, the betting line seems to agree that Jameis Winston has looked completely dreadful.
30:02For sure. 6k neighbors is tempting. I wouldn't, I wouldn't say he's out of my player pool, but I don't, I don't
30:09know that that's where I'm going to end up.
30:12Probably not. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I don't know.
30:15I mean, I've been playing a little bit less teams this year.
30:18Like normally I do like 10 or so I've been doing like five this year.
30:23So I have a little bit less for, I mean, frankly, the biggest thing that I'm doing differently this year and other
30:30years is I'm playing like way less fancy. Like I really, like, I don't think I've played a lineup that is more
30:37than like five points off, like the top projected optimal on run the Sims all year.
30:42And my results have been a little bit better, both in terms of like SIM ROI and real ROI.
30:48Shocking how, how, uh, how that works. And neighbors is just not even going to get close to these optimal lineups the
30:55way that stuff is, is coming out this year.
30:58So I really do think it probably is just Jeremiah love for this game.
31:02You want to know a reason why Jeremiah love is not going to end up being 50% owned.
31:08It's because lineups are going to come preloaded with $8,400 Derek Henry against his old team, the Tennessee Titans.
31:14And frankly, Mr. Flowers at 6,900 as well. I mean, Jacob, $8,400 Henry, but what, what is your, okay.
31:19How much, what odds would you have to be given to be a market maker for Derek Henry, not to score a touchdown in this game?
31:28Like, like one to 10 or something like, isn't, isn't he just literally starting the game with a rush, with a rushing touchdown?
31:35Yes. Yes, he is. He starts with one. And the question is whether he gets two or three or four.
31:41Yeah. Yeah. He's, he's in a great spot here.
31:44He's, he's, I mean, he's obviously played the Titans since he got to Baltimore, right?
31:49This isn't like the first. First time. Yeah. Correct.
31:51Yeah. It's, uh, it's like a, it's like a big, he, he talked about it yesterday.
31:56Uh, there was like a viral clip going around of like, eh, the Titans, they said they didn't really want me, you know, which is, uh, yeah.
32:05But he has not played them yet. Wow. Okay.
32:08Then he's going to get four touchdowns. He's going to get four touchdowns.
32:12I have never played. I, frankly, I like, I've never, I've never really been a Henry guy anyways, which actually makes no sense.
32:19Cause he is like a, like a 19 Rast.
32:22Yeah. It doesn't make any sense. I really should be a Henry guy.
32:26I've never been a chalk Henry guy. I've never played him at 8,000.
32:30I certainly have never played him at 8,000 draft Kings dollars before.
32:34I've certainly never played him at 8,400. I, I, I, he's just going to stick it to the Titans this week.
32:40It's going to be unbelievable how many points he's going to score.
32:44I've been a Henry guy. I'm usually like a Henry when he's not that owned guy.
32:49I usually don't play him when he is owned and he'll be owned this week, but I'm, I'm tempted by the Titans narrative for sure.
32:57Yeah. Even though I should say, like typically the Titans are past funnel.
33:01You typically want to play, um, quarterbacks and receivers against them, not running backs.
33:05But I mean, I do think that they're going to find a way to get, get the big dog involved.
33:12Zay flowers, uh, will be owned at 16, a hundred quite owned at 16, a hundred.
33:17Um, that's fine. Smash matchup. Um, he is currently averaging over nine yards for a run.
33:22Would you play? I have no problem with that.
33:24I don't think I would. I would be open to playing them together.
33:29I'll, I'll say that. I'm not like going to commit to that ahead of the fact.
33:34And I don't, I don't put, like I said, I played four lineups last week.
33:38That's kind of what I've been playing this week is like a handful or this year is like a handful of lineups
33:45at like the mid to higher dollar range. Um, so I'm open to it.
33:50I would, I would bet that I have one of them in most of my lineups.
33:55I think that is. I'll definitely have some Henry lineups.
33:58Lineups that I don't have Henry probably will have Zay.
34:01Yeah. I mean, obviously the concern here is like the Titans are just going to do zero pushing like Ken Ward socks.
34:08They will do Ken Ward can't play. He's getting worse.
34:11Like Ward, Ward is getting worse. There was a quote this week that, um, Dave Dable had, which is, uh, or, or was it?
34:18It wasn't Dable. It was, uh, Robert Sala of saying he's getting PTSD.
34:22Like, cause he's just getting hammered in the pocket.
34:25I mean, there was a clip going around. Um, there's a clip going around of him, like literally just standing, just standing in the pocket.
34:33And it's just like, I don't know, man. They're in there, like not targeting Carnal Tate down the field at all, which
34:40is like the thing he was good at at Ohio state.
34:43I don't know. It's just, it's all a mess.
34:46The Titans stuff is a, is a huge, huge, huge mess.
34:50I'm, I'm out. I'm out. I, I'm not feeling good, uh, about this at all.
34:54Uh, all right. The Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to play at the Cincinnati Bengals 51 and a half point total here.
35:01Chase Burrow, Lawrence, Chase Brown, P-Wash. I mean, P-Wash brother.
35:04It's all, it's always Parker Washington. There's always money in the Parker Washington stand.
35:08Yeah. I'm super into P-Wash. Um, and then I think the interesting thing about this game is that we're going to see
35:15a lot of projected ownership on Chase Brown. Um, and I'm interested to see how much he actually gets played.
35:21The receiving role has been worse this year, but I don't know if it's worse, like in a systemic fashion.
35:28It feels like it's worse in a, this is what can happen in a three game sample fashion.
35:33Although I guess the one reason why it might be systemic is that typically if you do go under center more, which
35:40they've been trying to emphasize, you're going to throw the running back less usually than if you're playing at a shotgun.
35:47So that, that might be an issue. Um, but he, he was like a borderline first round redraft pick who is now all the way down to 6,100.
35:55And so he's going to get a ton of play.
35:59I mean, it's not a good matchup. You, you really don't want to start running backs against the Jaguars.
36:04I prefer love over him decisively. So I'm probably going to be mostly fading Chase Brown this week.
36:10And then I'm really excited to play the other Bengals.
36:13Um, I mean, they're going to be owned too.
36:16Like there's, there's nowhere to hide this week at all with the Cincinnati Bengals, but like it's more interesting.
36:22At least I think to play a very heavily owned T or chase, if at least doing so is leveraging off of their very heavily owned teammate.
36:30Um, so I'm, I'm probably open-minded to playing the Bengals receivers this week for sure.
36:35And then I'm, I'm, yeah, I'm, I'm really into the Jags.
36:39And then I guess the, the best leverage playoff of Chase Brown and who would be my gold star play this week would be Basel Tootin.
36:47He saw 21. Wow. Oh, I love it. He saw 21 of the team's first 28 snaps last week.
36:53Ended up with a under 50% snap share because he didn't play the two minute drill, which is a real issue.
36:59Um, and then he got those, we were sweating it on ship cast.
37:03He got the first two touches of the second half drive.
37:07He sat the rest of that drive. That drive was 13 plays.
37:11Um, and he sat the rest of that drive probably due to a minor injury that the broadcast had noted or kind
37:17of looked at him on the sideline. And then he came back, he played, he was healthy.
37:23And then he also set the last drive when Amir Abdul was just running out the clock at a 29 point game.
37:30So his overall snap rate appears not to have progressed, but in the first half, his role was very, very meaningfully improved from previous weeks.
37:38Um, I'm buying if that's the role we're getting this week.
37:41I think we're going to see 65 to 70% snaps for Basial Tootin.
37:45Um, he saw in that first half stretch, he saw 21 of 26 non third down two minute drill snaps.
37:51Abdullah and Chris Rodriguez were barely playing. I expect him to basically have that role this week.
37:57And he looks like a budding superstar to me on film.
38:00Um, he gets the better matchup than Chase Brown.
38:03He's a lower cost of Chase Brown. He's going to be way less owned than Chase Brown in this game.
38:09I think he's a great play. So I'll, I'll play a lot of Tootin this week and I'm happy to eat some
38:16of the ownership coming back with either Higgins or Chase.
38:19I love it. I've been looking for a reason to move Tootin up more in, in my stuff.
38:25I mean, the big deal with Tootin right now that is frustrating is they're playing four running backs.
38:30My guess is in more serious games, the Amir Abdullah stuff is going to be cut out.
38:36I also think in more serious games, we are going to see Chris Rodriguez's role, uh, diminish a little bit like in
38:43games that the Jaguars really want to win. Uh, we'll, we'll see if that is true or not.
38:48One thing to note about Chase Brown as Uber chalk here, the Jaguars run defense is no joke.
38:54It is like a, like top tier A1, some of the best pass funnel tiles type stuff like we've ever seen.
39:01It really is that good, which is bad for most running backs.
39:04Maybe not that bad for Chase Brown though. Chase Brown historically like a kind of CMC-esque.
39:09His best usage has been as a pass catching guy.
39:12The deal with Chase Brown is he just had this miserable schedule to start the year.
39:17Uh, this is more of a miserable schedule. Like this is, is tough for him.
39:22Although, I mean, I do think we all know the deal with Chase Brown, which is that he can, you know, Joe
39:29Burrow can just get him two touchdowns. And, and, uh, although P Ryan does continue getting some of the green zone touches,
39:36which has always been a sort of frustrating thing.
39:39If you've been a Chase Brown guy, I agree with you that I am a Jeremiah love over Chase Brown guy.
39:45So that is going to leave me a little bit, uh, exposed to the, uh, to the field there.
39:51And, and Chase, weirdly enough, I actually don't think Chase will end up being that owned because my sense is that the field wants to play JSN.
40:00I actually think, I think, and, and Puka being eligible is also going to siphon off.
40:05He's $600 on draft games, more expensive than Puka.
40:08I bet Chase ends up more like 15% than 22% projected on.
40:11That would be, that would be my guess. Yeah.
40:14How old is Higgins going to be? I think he might be a decent.
40:18Higgins will Higgins. He wound up being the, the, like the, the, the lineup that builds itself is Trevor Lawrence, Parker, Washington, T Higgins bring back.
40:27That's the, that ends up being the chalk, uh, in this game instead of Jamar Chase.
40:32I think he actually winds up more on the chase.
40:35Yeah. I, I, I think Chase, I think it'll go Chase Brown, then T Higgins, then Jamar Chase in terms of Bengals ownership.
40:42And I would say my desire to play the Bengals goes T Higgins, then Jamar Chase, then Chase Brown.
40:48Um, I, I mean, I think Chase Brown's totally fine play.
40:51Obviously I'm not saying like you can't play him against the Bengals.
40:55Like he's going to be a bust. It's just like, he's going to be so, I think he's going to be so much more owned than Jeremiah Love.
41:04And I think he's just a straight up worse play than Jeremiah Love.
41:08And I also have one of my favorite plays in that price range is the running back who kind of leverages directly off of him.
41:16So I, I'm, I'm pretty pumped about kind of the opportunities presented to not play Chase Brown, but he's obviously a totally fine play.
41:23Yes. Yeah. Uh, I agree. All right. The Dallas Cowboys traveling to play at the Houston Texans.
41:29Uh, Nico Collins sounds like he is going to play this week.
41:32Good matchup for him against the Dallas Cowboys. Probably I've been playing Javante, um, in, in these spots.
41:38Like, uh, I just don't think you have to do it this week.
41:42I think his price has risen to the point where he seems like a marginal play.
41:47Uh, definitely not into David Montgomery, but curious your thoughts on Lamb and Pickens in a difficult matchup in a spot where
41:54they probably will not get played too much. Yeah.
41:57I'm, I'm fine with playing Lamb or Pickens. Um, I think probably like, I don't know.
42:02I'll have to listen to people who like watch defensive matchups more closely than I do.
42:07But my kind of outside observer guess is that Stingley will actually play more on Pickens just because he's like the less moved around wide receiver.
42:15And I think he's kind of the easier one to shadow just from how you orient your defense.
42:21And then they'll probably like place kind of safety help and stuff over Lamb.
42:25But I don't know. Maybe they'll, maybe they'll try Lasseter on Pickens since he's a little bit more physical.
42:31And then they'll use Stingley over Lamb since he has more athletic ability.
42:35I think Stingley versus Pickens just feels like the right way to do it.
42:39That just feels like what I would do if I was a defensive coordinator.
42:44Um, doesn't, doesn't mean that's what they'll do, but that's my guess.
42:48Right. That's, that's kind of what I would do.
42:50I would, I would say like dedicate safety help to Lamb as much as possible.
42:55And then you isolate Stingley on, on Pickens. Like that's kind of how I would make the most sense to me, but I'm interested.
43:03Um, I think regardless, these guys are going to have opportunities and I'm, I think that they're always fine plays.
43:09And like both of them are guys where I don't really do the, aren't you worried?
43:14Like I'm, I'm open to playing them. And if there's reasons why their ownership would be depressed, I'm fine with that.
43:20Especially indoor game. Um, I think that Houston's offense is going to look a lot better with Nico Collins.
43:26Um, he's to me, like a very clear cut top 10 wide receiver in the league.
43:31He's very clearly the best player on this offense and they have horrendous pass catchers around him.
43:37Um, I don't think that it's that surprising that they went from looking like a very competent offense in week one against
43:44Buffalo, where they put up 31 points to looking completely unable to move the ball.
43:48When you take Nico Collins out of the equation, I expect a much better Texans attack this week.
43:54Um, so I'm, I'm definitely into playing Nico. Um, for sure.
43:57I, I, I don't know. I don't know if I would get to Stroud, but I don't even think he'd be like a crazy play.
44:05I think he's actually played pretty decently individually this year.
44:08Um, and then like Schultz, you can't play. I mean, he's a fine managed play even with Collins back, but his price
44:15is so inflated from the weeks that he played without Collins that he's off the table.
44:20So I think it's Collins is the only play on Houston.
44:24You definitely can't play the running backs. And then Dallas, like the three main guys are all fine.
44:29I don't know. Probably my favorite play in this game is Collins.
44:33Man, I think Pickens at 6,300. I, first off, I don't think he'll get to 10%.
44:38I think he'll be more like 8%. I mean, like he, like we know there will be a Pickens explosion game coming.
44:45Like I haven't looked at the, uh, by Leone model or whatever it this week, but I'm going to guess George Pickens
44:52is coming close to being on the by Leone model.
44:55And when the Pickens explosion comes, I mean, you want to be on the Pickens at 8%, not at, uh, not at 27% or whatever.
45:03I, I, that might be one of my IKB plays this week where I'm just like, man, you just don't get these
45:10spots on George Pickens all that much. And, and the, the Texans defense for as vaunted as they have been, I mean,
45:17not, not good results for them through, through three weeks.
45:20I mean, they've been fine, but it has, this has not been playing like the steel curtain or whatever.
45:26Right. That's, that's, that's very true. Yeah. They still get pressure.
45:29I mean, they were wrecking the game last week, but obviously it's not like the Colts or the Dallas Cowboys.
45:35Um, and their secondary has not been like bad imposing.
45:39They've given up big plays. All right. The, a game that's actually very important to figure out the New York Jets traveling to play at the Chicago bears.
45:47So we don't have Brees Hall in this game.
45:50It's going to be Braylon Allen starting at running back.
45:53Uh, Isaiah Davis was active last week, did not get a snap on offense.
45:58That was, I, I assumed it was like an Ollie Gordon jail and right situation where he just was not playing last
46:05week because we've seen this situation in the past where Brees has missed Braylon Allen has been chalk.
46:10And then Isaiah Davis Kool-Aid man, the situation, maybe Isaiah Davis fell out of favor at some point over the course of
46:17this off season with this coaching staff. I don't know.
46:20Then we also got Luther Burden 11 targets with case Keenum at quarterback last week, including a very close.
46:26Cool designed play where he scored a touchdown. And, um, I mean the most unfortunate thing I'm going to have to say
46:33to you of all time, which is that Khalif Raymond is projecting as the best points per dollar wide receiver, um, on the slate.
46:41I don't know, man. I don't, you, you gotta, I gotta go pee.
46:45So you have, you have 45 seconds. Oh no.
46:47About Khalif Raymond. Khalif Raymond. Uh, can I just sit here in silence?
46:52Um, I have nothing to say about Khalif Raymond.
46:54He disgusts me. Uh, if you want to play him, be my guest.
46:58You probably should. He projects great. You should probably play Khalif Raymond.
47:02I'll probably be stubborn and refuse to play Khalif Raymond, but he, he objectively is a great play.
47:08Uh, Luther Burden, I think is also objectively a great play.
47:11He's probably the only one of the, the three real players on the bears that we all drafted this year that I actually have any interest in playing.
47:20Um, um, um, DeAndre Swift. I certainly have interest in playing.
47:24It would be Swift and burden. And I guess Raymond is obviously fine.
47:28Then on the jet side, I'm expecting 80 Mitchell to miss.
47:31Um, I see he's projected in, but he was referred to as week to week.
47:36So I'm expecting it to be the same group of pass catchers as last week, but with Braylon Allen in place of Brees Hall.
47:43Um, and Braylon Allen, probably, probably a pretty good play this week.
47:47He has his whole life ahead of him. Let's say you, you've always been the Braylon Allen guy.
47:53Um, 5,200 here in a good matchup, but there are a lot of running backs in the like 6k range, kind of
48:00a tier above him that are going to draw ownership off of him.
48:04How excited are you to play Braylon Allen? Insanely excited.
48:07This is the matchup you want, right? You want a close, you want a close game, a bad defense.
48:13The bears playing their backup quarterback. If Caleb was starting this game, I'd probably be a little bit less hesitant because I
48:20think they could like legitimately get blown out if Caleb was starting in this game.
48:24But with agent starting, I think, I mean, that's obviously the reason why the spread is so close.
48:30Also. I mean, we got to just say like our, I believe this is a belief that you and I held in
48:37the off season that many people were laughing at, but we, we retained the Gino trutherism.
48:42We said, Hey man, that Raiders situation, that was untenable for anyone.
48:46Anyone would have looked bad back there. And Gino is, I mean, you even see this in games where he plays well.
48:52He's just so sensitive to pressure that sometimes in these third down spots, he's dead.
48:57There's just nothing he can do. And like the jets are going to punt and it is what it is.
49:03Um, but Gino has the, the, the jets offense.
49:06I mean, I wouldn't say cooking. He has them.
49:09He has them on a low simmer, you know, when you've like, okay, like I diced my onions, I'm caramelizing them.
49:16Like you're cooking. You can leave, you know, you can go, you can look at your phone for a little bit.
49:22You can let the onions sit there and caramelize like Gino is caramelizing the onions for, uh, for the New York jets.
49:29So I feel great about Garrett Wilson. I feel great about Braylon Allen.
49:33I feel great about Kenyon Sadiq because I think Sadiq was so good last week that not even Frank Reich and Eric
49:40Glenn can put that genie back in the bottle.
49:43I, he had a 55% route rate last week.
49:46He did leave after he scored the touchdown for an injury check.
49:49So he missed a drive, but he's fine. Uh, he was listed on Wednesday as limited practice, but I would imagine he
49:56gets a 65, 70% route share this week, uh, for, for the jets.
50:00And I mean, he, he did get priced way up, but Gino doubles were, I mean, uh, instrumental for winning money last week at DFS.
50:08And I think you can run them back this week as well.
50:12Uh, yeah, I completely agree with that. I, I do think the Gino indoors outdoor splits are maybe something to, to take into consideration.
50:20One of the reasons I was just hammering him.
50:22I put him in, in literally every lineup last week was, was the, was the indoor Gino narrative.
50:28Um, but I, I'm still a little into him this week.
50:31I don't know if I'll do as much like every single lineup has Gino Smith in it this week.
50:37I was probably a little bit of a one one off for me, but I'll probably play at least one Gino lineup.
50:44I'll definitely play a Garrett lineup. I'll definitely play a Braylon lineup.
50:48I'll definitely play a Sadiq lineup. Um, and so maybe I'll do one full jet stack.
50:53We'll see. Um, this game is like actually really fun for, uh, for, for, for a game that's being played between Case Keenum and Gino Smith.
51:01Like there's a lot of plays in this game.
51:04I, I can see at least six skill players that I want to play.
51:08It is going to be, it is going to be Bajan, I think.
51:12Right. Everyone still has Keenum projected, but I do think Bajan is going to start.
51:17That would be crazy. I think that's, I mean, I, it's not been confirmed.
51:22That's my guess though. Cause wow. Ben, Ben Johnson.
51:24Bajan, I'm much less into the bears. Okay. Bajan or, uh, uh, Ben Johnson said something after the game, like, you know,
51:31Case played well or whatever, but there's a region.
51:34And Bajan is the number two quarterback. Um, we'll see, you know, I mean, there's, there's a lot of time for the
51:41team to change their mind or whatever. My interest in burden and Raymond would decline with, with Tyson Bajan.
51:47My, I think my, my interest in burden would remain the same because Bajan is, he is a point.
51:53I mean, he he's, I mean, probably worse than case can, but he's a point and clicker.
51:58I mean, Bajan is a point and clicker. That's why, that's why bears fans liked him so much in contrast to Justin Fields.
52:05His fields is like the least point and clicker of all time, but Bajan is a great point.
52:11I mean, he's a fine point and clicker. Um, I probably better at pointing and clicking than Caleb Williams.
52:17Although, I mean, this is such tired discourse, but everyone knows the reason why the offense looks different when Caleb Williams is
52:24in there versus his backups is you. The reason the thing that makes Caleb so special is what he does off script.
52:31And that's the thing that Ben Johnson doesn't have control of.
52:34And it's why you're going to win more games with Caleb Williams, but it's also why the offense is going to be less predictable.
52:42And in some ways, a little bit less fantasy friendly when Caleb Williams is playing quarterback.
52:47Yeah. I'm, I'm in on burden regardless though, both, both ways.
52:50Uh, I am in on, uh, I'm in on Luther burden.
52:54Um, and then let's go ahead and move to the Miami dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings.
52:59I mean, if Justin Jefferson doesn't play, you got to figure out what you're doing with chalk Jordan Addison.
53:05I mean, would you have interest in $5,300? Jordan Addison would know Justin Jefferson and Kyler Murray playing as his quarterback.
53:11I make it a point to not, um, have a ton of interest in like shock mid tier wide receivers.
53:17Yeah. Um, that's like, like obviously it'd be a great play, but.
53:21I feel like you're usually. Not on the right side of history.
53:25If you're getting on like really chalky mid tier wide receivers.
53:28Um, like usually it's like one thing to get on the chalk puka, you know, like if he's in like a particularly great spot.
53:36And it's another thing, if the cost is so low that you don't need that high of a threshold that I would
53:43probably find other ways to do that. I guess it would depend how high the ownership gets.
53:48I'm not sure. Like if we're talking Megan, mega shock, probably out on that.
53:52Um, definitely out on Aaron Jones. Um, he's going to come with a ton of ownership.
53:58He should, I get it. Got a great role, but like talking about like 32 year old Aaron Jones at the exact
54:04same price range as round one, two turn redraft prick Chase Brown and third overall pick Jeremiah Love.
54:10And they're all in like comparable price range, comparable spot.
54:13Jones is the best matchup, but like if they have comparable ownership and I don't even think they will, I think Jones
54:20might actually be the most owned of them. Him or Brown.
54:23Like Jones just seems like obviously the worst play of those three to be.
54:28Obviously the worst play. And, and I think Devin Neal is going to be active for this game.
54:34I think so. I'm, I'm fascinated to see what the ownership comes in on because algorithmically it's being projected right now.
54:40Jones and Brown ahead of love. And I think that is not so.
54:44So yeah, I'll be out on that. Um, I'll be playing love ahead of Jones, the dolphins guys.
54:50I think we should talk about, but I don't really think that they're DFS viable.
54:55I think it's more of a redraft conversation. I think Malik, I think Malik Washington is, is a little viable actually at 4,400.
55:02He's fine. He got three snaps as just straight up a running back.
55:06I don't think he's going to get those this week.
55:09Those, those will just go to jail. Right. I don't know, man.
55:13I don't know. I'm kind of, I, I gotta, I gotta say one of my weird, uh, dynasty, like fascinations has kind of always been Malik Washington.
55:21I think he's a horrible structural fit with Malik Willis, but I think this is kind of an interesting spot.
55:27This is also just a, a game that people are going to spend all week thinking about because it's like the survivor
55:34game of like, what do you do? Can Kyler Murray blow this game?
55:38He absolutely can, uh, against the Miami dolphins, but the dolphins are so bad.
55:43You know, another interesting thing in this game is that Jawan Jennings has been God awful as a member of the Minnesota
55:50Vikings, but as leverage off of $3,600 Khalif Raymond in a nut matchup with probably no Justin Jefferson.
55:55I am a smidgen smidgen interested. A guy I have zero interest in is TJ Hawkinson.
56:00I'm not doing it. I, I, I won't, I refuse.
56:03I refuse. He, he projected well last week. I said, I'm not doing it.
56:08Uh, I'd rather play Kenya on Sadiq. I'm doing it.
56:11I, and I would rather play, I'd rather play Higby, um, than, than Hawkinson.
56:15I think given the, even, even with all the questions about Higby's usage this week.
56:20Yeah, I won't be, I won't be playing TJ Hawkinson probably.
56:23Let's talk about the dolphins backfield though. What are, what are kind of your expectations?
56:28Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright, Jerk has Hunter. What do you think this is going to look like?
56:33So I don't think that, like I said, I don't look at this, a DFS question.
56:38I think it's a managed league question. Um, because I don't think any of them are in play for DFS, but first,
56:45the first notable thing is it sounds like Jalen Wright's going to play.
56:49So it sounds like they're, you're going to see both these guys this week.
56:54Um, my, I think it's legitimately 50, 50 in terms of like, who is the lead back?
56:59And the answer might be no one. Jalen Wright was winning the RB two job in camp.
57:04Like he played ahead of Ollie Gordon and both preseason games.
57:08He entered the first game first, although they both ended up playing four snaps.
57:12Ollie Gordon entered the second game first, but then Jalen Wright entered on the same drive and then Jalen Wright got hurt.
57:19And then it was all Gordon in week three.
57:22So like in terms of if you're tracking, you know, who has been ahead of whom throughout the course of the season,
57:29Jalen Wright has been ahead of Ollie Gordon more that Ollie Gordon has been ahead of Jalen Wright.
57:35Um, did Ollie Gordon do anything last week to change that?
57:38Like maybe I thought he looked fine, but he still averaged like 2.4 yards per carry.
57:43So I don't, I don't know if it was like some incredible performance.
57:47The reason I've preferred Ollie likes between the two for managed leagues is that I think if Jalen Wright is the lead,
57:54it still has to be a split because he's just never really carried the load.
57:59He's like a speed back. Um, he split with Dylan Sampson at Tennessee.
58:03He is not an obvious passing downs back and he's not an obvious goal line back.
58:08Whereas Ollie Gordon, like it has more of the high value touch profile.
58:12He's better receiving back than Jalen Wright and he's a better power back at the goal line than Jalen Wright.
58:18And so I think there's at least some world in which Ollie Gordon is getting all the touches because he has that
58:25touch consolidating workhorse profile dating back to college. And then if it's a split, I think he's getting the high value touches,
58:32even if Jalen Wright gets more touches. But like from a DFS perspective, I'm expecting a split.
58:37I expect it to be highly uncertain. And I can't imagine getting in on these guys, especially when you can just play
58:44like Braylon Allen, who's going to have his whole backfield ahead of him.
58:48His whole backfield ahead of him. I agree. And like Peter made this point on the Swolecast, which is DraftKings and FanDuel should have done a better job.
58:57These guys should be minimum salary. Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright should be dead minimum salary at the running back position.
59:03Make us think about it. Make us debate. Do I want to play Tyler Higbee or do I want to play Ollie Gordon?
59:11Who has a better chance of scoring a touchdown?
59:14Who has a better chance of catching four passes?
59:16You know, but there's there's absolutely no discussion with them at these prices.
59:20Like they're just they're completely they're completely unplayable at this spot.
59:24I'm with you on the Aaron Jones stuff. I prefer Jeremiah Love to him.
59:28So I just am going to have less Aaron Jones than the field.
59:32I imagine the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to play at the Seattle Seahawks.
59:36JSN is nine thousand one hundred DraftKings dollars coming in at around 13 percent projected ownership.
59:41I this will probably be the first week that I don't try and psyop myself into Jadarian Price.
59:47He he can't get out of his own way.
59:50He can't he can't get out of his own way.
59:53Every time there's been an opportunity for him, he just has done a terrible error.
59:58Charbonnet's practice window. I think it's going to open soon.
60:01It's done. It's over. I was wrong about Jadarian Price.
60:04I actually don't think I was wrong about how good he is, but it's definitely just going to not happen in in the usage.
60:11It's just not going to happen. So I apologize, everyone.
60:15It's not happening for Jadarian Price. I'm not 100 percent sure that it's not happening this year, but I already have like
60:21my preferred hipster indie band running back of the week in Bajal Tootin.
60:26So I don't need to do the Jadarian Price thing this week.
60:29Who would I play in this game? I would play Jackson Smith and Jigba.
60:34I would play AJ Barner. That would be my point.
60:37I wouldn't even play AJ Barner, man. Oh, I would I would go back to the Ladwell.
60:42I'm willing to do that. I'm fine. I'm happy to go back to the Ladwell.
60:47Would you? Yeah, I'm in on that. His role is so good.
60:51Yeah, his role is really his role is so good.
60:54Week one. I know that I like I made him a gold star play last week and he didn't do that much,
61:01but I do still think he is there pretty clear wide receiver one.
61:05I'm willing to go back to that one again.
61:08I think I got I don't know. He's he's he doesn't actually project that well at all.
61:13He'll be a guy that based on kind of what I saw week one, I'm probably just going to like bump him
61:20a point in projections each week and then see if he comes up.
61:24But I do think he's still in play. Yeah, he's in play.
61:28I would just say basically. The Chargers to me are in the they're in like the the no go zone.
61:34They're just they're just a joke. They're they're a joke, man.
61:37They're they're they can't block. They can't run. Herbert is making like, you know, I mean, it's so funny that Stephen Ruiz
61:44sent that tweet out of being like, can someone just like give me some visual evidence of Herbert playing bad?
61:50And then he tosses two of the biggest meatball on hoagie subs of all.
61:55I mean, just like the second interception was just like that's a that's a freaking backup quarterback interception, brother.
62:01That is a that is a case. Keenum comes into the game cold down 10 points and has to try and make something happen interception like it.
62:09It's really, really bad. And, you know, of course, Harbaugh is like doing bits at the press conferences being like I thought everyone did great.
62:17I thought everyone, you know, maximalized their full existences.
62:20I thought the interior running game was it's just like shut up.
62:24Shut up. Shut up. All of you shut up.
62:26McDaniel, get your capris off, dude. Can you can we can we engineer a solution to get four and a half yards per play on offense?
62:35Because apparently the answer is no. Your boy Trey Harris is kind of happening, though.
62:39How about that? That's the thing. It's very tilting because I I wrote about this in Dynasty Corner this week.
62:46But basically, I was like. I moved Quentin Johnston down, which gave me great pleasure, but I was like, it's unfortunate that
62:52I could only have victory lap this take, which is the Quentin Johnston sucks.
62:57But I can't do the full victory lap, which would be if Quentin Johnston was unstartable.
63:02But Trey Harris was an every week starter because like the assumption by the market was was wrong in two ways.
63:08Right. The assumption was a that Quentin Johnston is good at football, but also that there would be two Chargers pass catchers
63:15worth drafting in the first seven rounds. And that is completely incorrect.
63:19So even though even though I do appear to have been correct in terms of which Charger was the second best Charger
63:26pass catcher, it does not matter because Lab Wiconki is the only Charger pass catcher that is borderline startable.
63:32And he's not even really that startable. So it's it's just a well, no, he's definitely startable.
63:37I guess he's borderline DFS playable. But yeah, it's just it's really rough for for the Los Angeles Chargers.
63:43I like tried to think about. Making a case for the Chargers lead running back at forty three hundred dollars, but I think that that's too cute.
63:52Like again, if he was if I could maybe see it in a better matchup, like if they were playing the Raiders
63:59or something or if they were playing like whenever.
64:01I don't know if the Chargers play the Dolphins.
64:04I assume they do at some point because the Chiefs played the Dolphins.
64:08Sure. Then you could play Keaton that week. I would I would I certainly would not be tempted to play a Marion Hampton in in any format.
64:17I mean, I have a Marion Hampton in the spite main and I am thinking about potentially benching him for Pat Fryer.
64:24Yeah, it's it is Jover. It's like actually Jover.
64:26I have two different teams in the main event that have a running back room of Reese Hall and a Marion Hampton.
64:33That was just like getting shot and then getting stabbed over the course of the day.
64:38It's like, wow, how did this get so much worse?
64:41I don't I don't like as someone who was lower than Hampton on consensus, both as a prospect and in best ball.
64:48I didn't ever imagine it getting bad like this.
64:51I thought I thought the bad would be OK.
64:54Like he's basically David Montgomery, but on a good team.
64:57I didn't think he was going to be. I didn't I didn't think he was going to be David Montgomery on a
65:04bad team with with with the role of Woody Marks being played by a really, really good version of Woody Marks.
65:11Right. I mean, the. The reason why I was never fully out on Hampton, despite never really believing in his talent, I
65:17was like, I still feel like the worst case is he's going to like be Melvin Gordon or Joe Mixon.
65:24Melvin Gordon. He's going to be a running back that we all kind of agree is bad, but he's going to like
65:31grind his way to being a low end RB one.
65:34This was not in the cards for me. I'm I'm pretty stunned by it.
65:38I wrote this week that basically the roles in the Chargers backfield are the same as the roles in the Denver backfield.
65:45So like Keaton Mitchell is in the RJ Harvey role.
65:48Marian Hampton is in the JK Dobbins role. And Kamani Vidal is in the Tyler Bidet role.
65:53And like you didn't you didn't think you're drafting JK Dobbins on a bad team.
65:58He's in round two. But he is literally JK Dobbins.
66:01He's literally JK Dobbins. Yeah, he's literally JK Dobbins.
66:04Oh, so, so bad. I mean, speaking of I guess we'll get to that game.
66:09The Kansas City Chiefs traveling to play the loss of I guess our eighters.
66:13I mean, just your weekly Kenneth Walker is like the second or third best player in fantasy football.
66:19He'll be chalky it this week. I will be playing a lot of Kenneth Walker this week.
66:24The interesting thing is is Emma Holmes 6500. We did see the haters in some way being correct last week wherein the team just shut it down.
66:33They didn't throw the ball at all really in the second half.
66:36They did a Kelsey touchdown, but they kind of just dicked around in the second half.
66:41Kelsey at 60 or my homes at 6500 projects pretty good.
66:45But does he not have the same mega ceiling of like a Purdy or an Allen or a Burrow or a Lawrence
66:52just because the team does seem pretty comfortable to just chill in the second half of games?
66:57Although the three and a loss I guess Raiders.
67:00Maybe the Raiders push them and we do get 45 dropbacks from homes here.
67:04Potentially. Yeah, I think it's possible. The pass rate has definitely gone up.
67:08It was interesting this week too. They actually did pass more to Rishi Rice specifically.
67:13And I think if you're a Rice believer, the best narrative for that is that they played two very man heavy defenses in the first two weeks.
67:21They got a zone heavy defense last week. And then Rice, you know, who of course much better against zone than man
67:28ends up getting targeted a lot more. Do you like have offhand the Raiders zone man splits?
67:34I haven't gotten a chance to look this up yet in the week.
67:38It's Thursday morning. I don't. What I would say is that I don't think Kansas City themselves cares that much about that.
67:45Like I think they're happy to. I'll say the biggest difference for Rice and Worthy and Kelsey is they're not doing the RPO stuff anymore.
67:52The RPO stuff was what Rice was actually eating off of.
67:56I actually saw a pretty good Twitter thread about this basically just being like maybe Bohm's just is bad at RPO.
68:03Maybe he's maybe he's just like his brain doesn't do it right.
68:06He obviously didn't do very much of it in college.
68:09Maybe he just doesn't like it. And that's the big that's been the biggest change from the enemy.
68:15And Nagy is just like almost a total elimination of the actually you saw them fuck it up in week one.
68:22Or was that the Colts game? They had an RPO and they fucked it up.
68:26So like I just think I just think they're they're just not really doing it anymore, which is pretty bad for for Rashi.
68:34I don't know the zone versus man stuff. I mean, frankly, Worthy is just going to do the same thing every week.
68:40He's going to have about he's going to have about six targets and maybe he'll score a touchdown or maybe he won't.
68:47Well, the big the big plus on Rice and the negative on Worthy, I think, from last week was that they stopped using Worthy on the screens.
68:56Like on the short area stuff, they gave that to Rice, which makes sense.
69:00Like I've been hard on Rice, but he's way better at that stuff than Xavier Worthy is.
69:05And I'm guessing the first two weeks were kind of like we're working Rice off the knee.
69:11Let's give Worthy a chance to do some of this stuff.
69:14And he fell right on his face. And so then they gave Rice a chance and he did well on that stuff.
69:21So I think that that that probably is going to hold.
69:25I'm still not very interested in playing Rice. He's going to be owned this week.
69:29I guess like I I guess for a lot of people, it's like their priors was more of what we saw last week.
69:36And then we eventually saw it. And so they're kind of projecting that forward.
69:41I'm still of the mindset that I was not expecting a whole lot from him this year.
69:46I'm kind of still viewing the first three weeks in concert.
69:50And I'm not like waiting the third week that much higher than the average of the whole.
69:55So I'm probably not very interested in playing a $6,400 Rishi Rice like at actual ownership.
70:00I would be definitely happy to play Patrick Mahomes.
70:03And I'm like, especially in like the smaller dollar stuff, I'm completely content to just play like Mahomes and Walker.
70:09And not have to even guess the distribution between Rice and Kelsey and Worthy.
70:13Like I'm happy to just do that. And I'll let other people decide where the touchdowns go between Rice and Kelsey and Worthy.
70:21Because like what we saw last week, now I guess Mahomes wasn't a smash last week because they scored only 24 points.
70:28But like I think there will be a lot of weeks where one of Rice or Kelsey gets the bulk of the volume.
70:35But the other one gets the touchdown. And then Worthy gets a random big play or Thornton gets a random big play.
70:42Or like the touchdown goes to Jalen Royals like it did in the Colts game.
70:46Like I don't I don't I think it's completely possible that Mahomes has a good game and Walker has a good game.
70:53But you don't need any of the Chiefs pass catchers.
70:56I think that'll happen a lot this year. This is historically like if you go back and look.
71:02I mean obviously Tyreek and Kelsey were different versions of the sums then.
71:06But this would happen all the time where Mahomes would have these crazy games.
71:10And Sammy Watkins would score one. Hardman would score one.
71:14Noah Gray would score one. You know like the distributions of the touchdowns would kind of just be random.
71:20So I think it's I think it's totally fine to play Mahomes Walker and then just leave it there.
71:25You know and Rashi could even have like a 16 point game and not even come close to being optimal in the
71:32context of this week because he's 6,400. The one who would matter more if he got to 16 points would be worthy because he's 4,600.
71:40But even then you know I mean I don't know Isaiah Williams could maybe match Xavier Worthy his performance or whatever.
71:47Can I just thought Xavier. I mean I'm not going to play him this week because he cost me like $2,000 last week directly.
71:54So like I'm just going to make an emotional call there.
71:58But I would like Xavier Worthy to just be priced higher so that I stop hearing the siren song.
72:04I like I. This. Xavier Worthy's costing more money I think than any player in the NFL.
72:09Hey. Handshake. Handshake on that one brother. You know the issue the issue with Worthy is that he doesn't really have a
72:16calling card because he's not good enough down the field to be a deep threat.
72:21That's Thornton. Rice is kind of like your zone beater short area spam guy.
72:25He's also not really good enough at changing direction to be your screen guy.
72:29Like he can't be like Khalif Raymond or whatever.
72:32He just doesn't. So the way they're using him now is just as like a normal wide receiver one.
72:38Like they're just like hey Xavier Worthy can you just go be Jamar Chase and like obviously no he can't.
72:44You know like he's unfit to do that. I you know I.
72:48This is obviously one of my most toxic trades.
72:51I still kind of believe there's a player in there somewhere and I just don't I don't know how to access it.
72:58I don't know and I don't think the Chiefs know how to access it either.
73:03Maybe he'll be a second contract guy. You know like he'll go sign a second contract with some other team and they'll
73:09figure out how to unlock the skills. Yeah, he'll be there.
73:13Taequann Thornton. He'll be there. He'll be there. Taequann Thornton.
73:16All right. Final game of this late. The Denver Broncos traveling to play at the San Francisco 49ers.
73:22I don't think Mike Evans is going to play in this game.
73:25That would be my guess. He got carted off with a rib injury, which means that the 49ers wide receivers are down
73:32to Debo Samuel, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowling, Daryl Hodge and let's go.
73:36Jacob, let's learn a name right now. Who do we think the fifth wide receiver is going to be for?
73:42You've already named Hodge and Watkins, right? I've already named Hodge and Watkins.
73:46They're their practice squad. Isn't Cowling the fifth guy?
73:49I named Cowling there. Oh, this is so good, man.
73:52Oh, right. Oh, yeah. Debo. Debo, Cowling, Hodge, Watkins.
73:55They have four wide receivers on the practice squad.
73:58Didn't they just sign? They signed Dante Pettis. And Brandon Cooks.
74:01They also have Will Pauling, who I actually did kind of like.
74:05Oh, yeah. He was a Wisconsin guy, and then he went to Notre Dame.
74:10Yeah. And then Wesley Grimes. So one of those guys.
74:13This is what separates us from the rest of the ship chasing cast is like the ability to name the colleges that
74:20the worst receivers in the NFL went to. Correct.
74:22So historically, the way that the Shanahan offenses has worked is when one star goes out, the ball just goes even more to the other stars.
74:31However, every once in a while, Christian McCaffrey, even harder.
74:34Every once in a while, you do get a Richie James game, Kendrick Bourne game, frankly, a Dante Pettis game.
74:40I mean, Dante Pettis had had that run. It's actually bring back Marquise Goodwin.
74:44Yeah. It's so funny to bring back Dante Pettis, a guy that Kyle Shanahan literally hated, like literally like get this guy.
74:51We just drafted him in the first round or maybe the second round.
74:55He was awesome for four games and then we just cut him like hated this guy, but is in such dire straits.
75:02They have to bring him back. I mean, Debo is 5600.
75:06Kittle is 5100. McCaffrey is 7700. One of those three guys has a slate breaker in them.
75:11And Debo is the one that is not going to come with very much ownership, which makes him pretty interesting to me.
75:18Yeah, he is definitely very interesting to me. And then McCaffrey is going to be the one that comes with a ton
75:25of ownership and a major reason for that being that there's no Gibbs on the slate.
75:30There's no Bijon on the slate and there's no Taylor on the slate.
75:34So it really does like narrow the group of the top running back plays at that elite price point to him and Walker.
75:41And most people I think are going to have one of those guys in their lineups.
75:46So that's kind of like McCaffrey has been a guy I've really liked the last two weeks because his ownership has been shielded by those other big names.
75:55Now he's kind of on his own. He's in a big spot.
75:59He's going to be super owned. I still quite like him as a play.
76:03I like Walker more. And then Kittle is going to be owned a lot, too.
76:08And that one's a bit interesting because Bowers and McBride are both on the slate.
76:12And there's kind of some other spend down stuff.
76:15But like there's there's that less obvious, you know, Dalton Schultz without Nico Collins, Mark Andrews without Dave Flowers, Michael Mayer without Brock Bowers.
76:23Like most of the early season, there's been very, very obvious cheap tight ends in a way that there isn't this week.
76:30So I think we'll see a lot more Kittle.
76:32I agree. If anyone gets squeezed, it's Debo relative to the other two.
76:36And then he probably becomes the most interesting to me.
76:40But I mean, every every every San Fran guy is a really strong play here.
76:44I'm curious. If you have any other thoughts on like how how you would rank McCaffrey relative to my my my gut
76:51is that I might just want to play more of the expensive wide receivers on the slate because there's going to be so much.
76:59There's so many of the top running backs are off the slate that it's going to push so much of the ownership
77:06onto just the two that are left. But I think I would rather play more like tootin and Jeremiah love and Braylon
77:12Allen and then play more into the expensive wide receivers because they're mostly other than Amon raw all on the slate.
77:19Like we get chase and we get CD and we get JSN.
77:23And so I think you'll get like a little bit better ownership and Puka on those guys and you can get on
77:30CMC and Walker where there's nowhere to hide. I just don't think CMC is honestly that good of a play.
77:36It's like a pretty it's like a pretty brutal matchup.
77:39They have been giving him like like the workload is good, but not 2024 2025 levels.
77:44Walker is just clearly a better play. Henry given the context of the matchup is like maybe for the first time in my life.
77:52I prefer Derek Henry to McCaffrey and you're not getting that much of an ownership discount.
77:57Now, if we get to Sunday and his ownership is more like 15% and his optimal rate is I mean, no way
78:04is his optimal rate 40.2% is optimal rate. It'll be more like 30%, but he might end up just being like a stone stone smash.
78:11Then I will go that direction. I mean, the thing I want to think through a little bit more as we get
78:18closer to Sunday is can I play Cowling Watkins or Hodge if Evans doesn't play because I really, really do not want to play any Kali Freeman.
78:27I mean, it just goes against everything that I believe in.
78:30And also after last week, I'm not that interested in the artist known as Isaiah Williams.
78:3542 routes, three targets, one catch for Isaiah Williams last week.
78:39Like I just I would really, really like to play one of Cowling Watkins or Hodge.
78:44I mean, Hodge and Watkins probably like literally can't earn a target in the National Football League to save their lives.
78:50Cowling is maybe sort of like vaguely the shape of interesting.
78:54He was a very productive college player. He also weighs about 147 pounds soaking wet.
78:58He is from the Xavier Worthy school of like nutritional dependence.
79:02So maybe not maybe not great there. But I mean, dude, if you could get the random Richie James game at 3100,
79:09it would be would be really nice. Totally. All right.
79:12And then, I mean, do you want to do you want to play Jalen Waddle?
79:16Are you in? Are you going back to your kind of do?
79:20Yeah, I kind of do. You would. Yeah. OK.
79:23All right. Let's let's build a team. Facial tune.
79:26Put him in the lineup. All right. Gold star play.
79:29Facial tune. I mean, frankly, I guess. Is is Braylon Allen going to be non owned enough that I can give him or you know what?
79:37I'll just I'll just give it for love. I'll just give it for love.
79:42Love is not going to be chalk enough that that I think that that is going to be disqualifying.
79:48And I don't think actually I don't think Braylon and love will get played together too much.
79:53I think the Henry Walker ownership will be high enough that you'll get those two not together.
79:58Yeah, I think you'll get a ton of I think the the most typical lineup this week, I think will be a three running back lineup.
80:06And it'll either be like two of Walker McCaffrey and Henry with one of Chase Brown or Aaron Jones.
80:12Or it'll be both of Chase Brown and Aaron Jones with one of Walker McCaffrey and Henry.
80:18I think that's what a lot of people will try to do.
80:21I think I'm going to do a lot of lineups with three lower priced running backs and try to spend up elsewhere this week.
80:29So you've already got probably my favorite two here in tootin and love.
80:33I will also add Braylon Allen to the lineup here in the flex.
80:37Wow. All right. We are having we are having a great time.
80:41I'm going to put in Luther Burden the third at fifty two hundred dollars and hopefully alleviate the need to even mention
80:48the name Kaleem Freeman one more time forever from this this program.
80:51All right. Well, part of the fun of the three cheap running backs play is we get to spend up.
80:58So I will go ahead and select Mr. Jamar Chase.
81:01All right. I love that. We'll do Jamar Chase.
81:04I will save us a smidgen of money at tight end.
81:07And you know what? I am just going to I am going to pull the Higby button.
81:12I'm going to be here because I don't think I think if if Parkinson misses Higby is just a really, really good play.
81:20If Ferguson and Parkinson are out, I think Higby is just like a really strong play.
81:25All right. I'm pretty sure we can readjust this after, but I'm kind of reading the cards.
81:30I think we have more than enough salary to do this.
81:33What I was hoping to do is with the three cheap running backs, we get to play Chase and Jackson Smith and Jigba.
81:41All right. And then let's see what we have.
81:43Let's check defenses. I'm actually fine playing the Jets against Bayjent.
81:47Oh, the Cardinal, the Cardinals. Yeah. So 5400. That leaves us Kyler, Gino.
81:51See, do we have anything we can stack off of?
81:54We can always change it if if we want to go more expensive quarterback.
81:58We can take Jamar. We can take JSN out.
82:01We can do... What if we went... We could do the Super Chalk.
82:05We could do Burrow T. Burrow T? What's... Or what if we do this?
82:10What if we do Puka? And then we do...
82:13Right. And then we do Chase. Chase. Chase Burrow.
82:15And then we do... Yeah. I like this. That works for me.
82:19Burrow? Yeah. I'll do versions of this. Like, I'll obviously mess around with it, but I'll have a lot of versions of this where it's...
82:27Two expensive receivers. Either Chase and JSN, Chase and Lamb, Chase and Puka, something like that.
82:32Yeah. Building through this lineup does... It does really lead me to think that Love and Braylon will be a smidgen under-owned.
82:39And certainly JSN. JSN is going to be like the number one Sim Bro play of the week because he's more expensive than Walker.
82:46He's more expensive than Henry, but projects significantly better than them.
82:50And is not going to get... Is not going to get played.
82:54All right, man. What is coming up on Thinking About Thinking?
82:57Dynasty Corner. Sunday 5. What else? What else do we have?
83:00Yeah. We're kind of in the cycle right now.
83:03So it's basically five posts per week. Three of them are articles.
83:07So the Hitchhiker's Guide comes out midday Tuesday. I do like a little waiver ranking post after that.
83:13We do Dynasty Corner. I kind of do like a summary of my Dynasty rankings changes along with the posted update on Wednesday.
83:20So all that's out. And then, yeah. No running today.
83:23No running tomorrow. I'll have the Sunday 5 up on Saturday.
83:26Just kind of like random musings. I'm planning to write a little bit about hockey in it this week, honestly.
83:33And then, yeah. We'll have the long view. We'll record right after this show as we always do.
83:38So that'll be up at some point today. Very likely.
83:41Or tomorrow morning at the absolute latest. All right.
83:44There you go, everyone. Make sure to like the video.
83:47Make sure to subscribe to the channel. Comment down below.
83:51If Jacob and I end up winning the Millionaire Maker, you'll want to be in there to win $10,000.
83:56And I'll be back with you guys tomorrow.

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