The FF Dynasty - 6 BREAKOUTS That Will Win You Your League!
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
43 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 7, 2026
Published
Sun, June 7, 2026
27
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonIsaiah LikelyParker WashingtonTyler ShoughBrian Thomas Jr.Bryce LanceC.J. StroudChris RodriguezChristian KirkJayden HigginsJonah ColemanJordyn TysonLuther BurdenNico Collins
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveRole0:11
Jeremiah questions whether Brian Thomas Jr. will maintain his role given that new GM James Gladstone and coach Liam Cohen were not the ones who drafted him, and notes his breakout came in garbage time with Mac Jones rather than under pressure like Parker Washington's.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveRole0:21
The Saints sneakily brought in Bryce Lance as part of their receiving corps additions, though his role remains unclear.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection0:35
Author expresses hope that C.J. Stroud can return to rookie-year form post-concussion with upgraded offensive line and improved offensive coordinator play, which would unlock Jaden Higgins' breakout potential.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
PositiveBreakout0:25
Author takes contrarian stance on Chris Rodriguez over Bejel Tootin, citing his 19 missed tackles forced on 85 carries (weeks 9-18), 6% explosive run rate, and potential for goal-line/early-down work in a high-octane Jaguars offense, available in 14th-16th rounds.
Insight pageChristian Kirk
PositiveDepth Chart0:33
Author notes Christian Kirk is no longer with the Texans, opening up targets for Jaden Higgins and Nico Collins.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout0:02
Jeremiah projects Watson to get 22-25% target share in the Packers offense with 15 healthy games, up from historical 13-19% range, positioning him as a perfect firewall WR2 in startups with elite athleticism (98th percentile burst, 97th percentile catch radius).
Insight pagePositiveRole0:04
In two-receiver sets with Love, Watson will benefit from a narrowed target tree focused on him and Tucker Craft, allowing multiple rounds of arbitrage value.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:05
Watson demonstrated a mini breakout at the end of last season and is expected to have linear growth in 2026 with consolidation of targets in the Packers offense.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveBreakout0:12
Casey projects Isaiah Likely as a tight end breakout with the Giants at FFD ADP 10.04, expecting 90-110 targets given Nagy and Roman's historical tight end emphasis and Likely's 53.8% slot rate with Baltimore.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:14
Isaiah Likely signed a 3-year, $40 million deal with the Giants and will function as the WR2 in the offense, with Nagy and Roman's track record of heavy tight end targeting (Travis Kelsey had 121-133 targets under Nagy).
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:17
The Giants' slot receiver group is soft with Odell Beckham, Juju Smith-Schuster, Braxton Berrios, and Calvin Austin, allowing Likely to step in and absorb targets as a mismatch threat.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
PositiveBreakout0:33
Author projects Jaden Higgins as a breakout candidate at 105 ADP, citing impressive performance when given opportunities (13.8 PPR vs Buffalo, 15.2 vs Jacksonville, 15.5 vs Tennessee), potential for increased slot usage, and upgraded Texans offensive line.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveProjection0:21
Jeremiah has 52% best ball ownership in Jonah Coleman with the Saints, indicating strong confidence in his breakout potential in the backfield.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveRole0:21
Jordan Tyson was drafted in the first round by the Saints and is part of a strong receiving corps supporting the offense's upside.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout0:40
Author highlights Luther Burden's efficiency metrics including yards per target and yards per route run, positioning him as a breakout candidate alongside other emerging receivers.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveRole0:33
Author expects Nico Collins to remain the primary receiver with Jaden Higgins as the number-two threat in the Texans offense, with both potentially playing some slot.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveRole0:21
Oscar Dell from Tennessee can show in the Saints receiving game out of the backfield, with 35-39 receptions in three seasons at Tennessee and a standout year with 58 receptions.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout0:07
Shev has repented on Parker Washington after weeks 12-18 showed him averaging 16 fantasy points per game with 58% slot alignment (vs. 42% earlier), second in missed tackles forced among WRs, and highest passer rating among Jags pass catchers.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:09
Parker Washington is ranked just inside the top 100 in FFD expert rankings and Shev hopes to acquire him in the ninth round of startups, representing significant value before his price becomes cemented.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:28
Author highlights Parker Washington as available near the 10th round in drafts, representing good value as part of a high-octane Jaguars offense.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveDepth Chart0:33
Author acknowledges Tank Dell could return and impact the Texans receiving corps, but does not expect this to significantly limit Jaden Higgins' breakout potential.
Insight pageTheo Johnson
PositiveRole0:15
Theo Johnson could get opportunity in the Giants offense with Nagy and Roman, though Isaiah Likely's signing and contract suggest he will be the primary tight end target.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveUsage0:27
Author notes Travis Etienne had only one season with 58 receptions (under Doug Peterson) and was at 36 receptions last year, indicating the Jaguars offense does not heavily target running backs.
Insight pageTyler Shough
PositiveBreakout0:21
Jeremiah projects Tyler Shough as a backend QB1 breakout with the Saints, with his best ball ownership climbing to nearly 40% post-NFL draft, backed by a strong receiving corps and improved offensive scheme.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:22
Tyler Shough was QB1 in 5 of 10 games last year and ranked 9th in completion percentage versus zone, with Kellen Moore and Doug Nussmeyer expected to design concepts that exploit his strengths.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:22
Jeremiah expects Tyler Shough's design rush carries to increase from 1-2 per game to 4-5 per game, and overall carries to rise from 4 to 6-7 per game, adding rushing upside to his QB1 projection.
Insight pageXavier Hutchinson
PositiveRole0:39
Author notes Xavier Hutchinson was re-signed and will continue to receive targets, but expects Jaden Higgins to absorb some of his target share.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is what everyone's talking about. Everything's on the table.
0:03This is what champions come to take. This is what everyone came to see.
0:08No do-overs. No second chances. No more Mr. Nice Guy.
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0:35Whatever your summer plans, Fred Meyer makes it easy to enjoy high quality fresh food at affordable prices.
0:41Fred Meyer, fresh for everyone. What is good? We're back.
0:44And today we've got some breakouts for your pleasure.
0:47Now, some of these guys might just be straight up.
0:51We're breaking out this year or some of these guys might have had a little mini breakout, but we're ready to crown them as full time.
0:59These guys stamp it. Either we're climbing an ADP or these guys are about to be full time guys that everybody's in
1:06on and debating on whether or not you should trade them for a first round pick or something.
1:12So we got the gang here. We got a full tripod for your pleasure.
1:17We're going to talk about some breakouts and go through them.
1:21We got two a piece. So, Jeremiah, Shev, how we doing today boys?
1:25Shev, Shev, Shev, how we doing? I'm going to start with you first.
1:29I'm calling on you. Yeah, you big guy. You talking to me?
1:33Okay. Listen, first of all, Power Temple of the Fingers is present tonight.
1:38I'm ready to drop knowledge on this side of the dirt.
1:41So, I hope you're ready. Jeremiah, Punz, how are you?
1:44Hey, this always makes me think of here's a church.
1:48Here's a steeple. Open the doors. See all the people.
1:51So, I'm ready. Yeah, we're about to start calling you Coach Punz.
1:55All right, let's go. All right. So, Jeremiah, why don't you start us off with the breakouts?
2:01What do you got for us? All right. So, this is one.
2:05It's a little bit of a delayed one. This is going to be a non-mainstream.
2:10I've got another one later who is very mainstream.
2:13But this one for a breakout is going to be Christian Watson.
2:17You can call it post hype, whatever you want.
2:20Everything hasn't come to fruition how you want on Christian Watson.
2:23In four seasons, he's been injury riddled. I'm going to predict that he gets 22% to 25% target share in the Packers offense, which we've known.
2:32It's been a peanut butter spread. Everybody gets 15% and nobody ends up happy.
2:36And he's going to play 15 healthy games. Target share the last four seasons.
2:4119%, 13%. We're going all the way back. 17%, then 15%.
2:45He's going to really clip into that 22% to 25%.
2:48And he's missed 26 regular season games out of 65.
2:51One playoff game. He missed multiple hamstring injuries. And of course, an ACL remiss seven games recovering into 20, 25, 17 yards per catch in his career.
3:00He's had ranges of 15 to 21 and a half per reception in all four seasons.
3:05So an excellent vertical threat. Shev might call him, I know Shev likes to call him a nuanced route runner, but you
3:13know, we'll talk about that another time. Watson is the perfect firewall wide receiver two that I want in startups where I go heavy at other positions.
3:22You know, I've gone Chase Brown, Brees Hall, and in the first two rounds gone May and Dart.
3:28And then I'm sitting there, I go T Higgins.
3:31He's my firewall wide receiver one. Well, a firewall wide receiver two, which allows me to push down the receiver position is
3:38being able to come away with a guy like Christian Watson in the here and the now.
3:43At 27 years old, he's the perfect firewall receiver.
3:46As I mentioned, early wide receiver thirties in the dynasty market goes near guys like Jordan Addison, Michael Wilson, Romeo Dubs, Dontavian Wicks.
3:54They're gone. The Josh Jacobs workload is going to vary.
3:57And there's various reasons for that. I'm expecting Watson to be there.
4:01Christian Watson in two wide receiver sets. Love is going to funnel narrow target tree season.
4:07Tucker craft. Shev will love that. And Christian Watson.
4:10So the beauty is you get multiple rounds arbitrage on Tucker craft.
4:14Should you miss him, which I know Shev, you and I were talking, you missed on some Tucker craft in the startup.
4:21And I know you're not one too happy about that.
4:24You can select Christian Watson to get some of that pie that Casey always talks about.
4:29And let's remember four, three, six speed speed score, 98 percentile burst score, 94th catch radius, 97th percentile six or receiver.
4:36Big target for Jordan love. He's going to hit.
4:39He's going to break out in a big way.
4:42So this one was a fun one to come up with because he's been in the league for a while.
4:49We've had our ups and downs. We're going to get an elevator ride.
4:53It's going to be linear in 2026 for Christian Watson.
4:57Yeah, I mean, I was showing some stats there.
4:59You could see at the end of the season got back on the field.
5:04There was a little mini breakout there. Some some good stuff from Christian Watson.
5:09He's one of those players that just has been ebb and flow throughout the whole career.
5:14There's been points where people are really into him points for the public hates him.
5:19He's been kind of a player than big D on the patron always says this.
5:24You buy him when he's down and you sell him when he's up.
5:28And that's just kind of been how he is.
5:31But like you said, there's there's some addition by subtraction there.
5:35I was going to bring Jaden Reed here onto the show because I personally like him.
5:40But Christian Watson's probably as good a shot as any.
5:43Like, I think there is going to be a lot more distribution to less players in this offense come this year.
5:50So I like picking a packer here. I think that's as good a bet as any of throwing a packer.
5:57And we've seen Christian Watson kind of demonstrate that.
6:00So I don't mind that I don't hate it.
6:03To your point to your point, Jeremiah, the the thing with Christian Watson, too, is that with the consolidation of targets, I
6:10think it gets even more condensed in the red zone where he's thrived traditionally.
6:15And it's just it's him and Tucker craft or Josh Jacobs runs the ball if he's not incarcerated.
6:21So, you know, that's that's that was my that was when you when you said this, I was like, ah.
6:27I like that. Yeah. I mean, we've been I got left holding the bag with Christian Watson during his worst season in
6:35twenty twenty four when he was actually before he tore his ACL.
6:39And so I've just been kind of sitting back in the shadows like, what do I what do I do with Christian Watson?
6:46But now now this is the time this is the time to take action.
6:51I feel like he's the perfect and with where you can acquire him.
6:55You can you know, he's the perfect wide receiver three that adds a seat takes your team to a ceiling that, you
7:02know, you're a lot of teams as a contender wouldn't be able to get to.
7:07Yeah. All right, chef hit me with your first breakout player and I, you know, priced around where Christian Watson is literally
7:15one spot behind Christian Watson in our expert rankings.
7:18Parker Washington. All right, walk with me now, because going back to the beginning of the offseason, going back to the beginning
7:25of the offseason where we were where we talked about it.
7:29And we're like, hey, man, I think this is fool's goal.
7:32Well, I've been doing some soul searching, Casey, and I must say that I have to repent.
7:38Open the church. Here's JC. Here's all chef here to repent about Parker Washington, because I have come and seen the light.
7:45And I can't stop thinking about how aggressive this could be with Parker Washington.
7:50So first and foremost, weeks one through nine, they ran the Parker Washington experiment.
7:54Basically had 29 catchable targets, caught 25 of them, 297 yards, nothing spectacular.
7:59And then they kind of they really unleashed him from weeks 12 to 18.
8:03And that resulted in him being about 16 fantasy points a game.
8:07He was second in missed tackles forced amongst wide receivers.
8:11He was fifth in contested catches and had the highest passer rating amongst all Jags wide receivers.
8:16That includes the one they call Travis Hunter, the unicorn that includes.
8:20Well, I mean, Travis Hunter was done by then.
8:23But in this stretch, Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas, Jr., Brenton Strange, all of Jags pass catchers.
8:28He had a higher passer rating when targeted than all of them.
8:32And he bumped up from like a 42 percent alignment rate.
8:36Good Lord, I can't get that out to a 58 percent alignment rate in the slot, which is akin to Chris Godwin
8:43in 2024 with Liam Cohen, where he was basically second in fantasy points and second and fourth in fantasy points per game.
8:51So all of this bullish signal to me is just, hey, we're trying to figure it out with this Jags offense.
8:58We think it's going to be a really good offense.
9:01Is it going to be is it going to be Bachel Tutton?
9:05Is he a Fugazi? Is he Fugazi? Is a Woozi?
9:08Is a Wazi? Is it Brian Thomas, Jr.? Does he want to football real good again?
9:13Is it Jacoby Myers who they paid? I'm going to take a bet.
9:18I mean, Jacoby Myers is obviously the cheapest, but I'm going to take a bet on the guy that when they needed
9:25to win football games, he delivered for them. When they said, hey, we need you to win a ball.
9:31He won in contested catch situations. So for me, Parker Washington represents an opportunity to get a role in Liam Cohen's offense that is extremely valuable.
9:40And he's just inside the top 100 of our rankings.
9:43Like I'm in a startup right now and I'm hoping and praying I can get to him in like the ninth round.
9:50Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's a that's certainly a possibility.
9:55We can see where where he is in the ADP right now.
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10:53Terms apply. 9-11. There you go. Bang. 9-11. And the brand new ADP, FFD ADP.
10:58Make sure you check that out. So 9-11. Yeah.
11:00That's just kind of right around there. All right.
11:03Hey, I like the Parker Washington call. Little mini breakout at the end of last season.
11:09Looked awesome doing it. I don't know, man. If Parker Washington breaks out, what's that say for Brian Thomas?
11:15Question mark? I'm Ron Burgundy. If Brian Thomas wants to football good, then all of this is moot.
11:21And it's going to just kind of hinder. It's going to hinder the breakout for Parker Washington and make Jacoby Myers just
11:28the least expensive wide receiver three that you can acquire.
11:32So, but the question is, does Brian Thomas Jr.
11:35want a football good? James Gladstone is not the GM that selected Brian Thomas Jr., nor is Liam Cohen, the coaching staff,
11:42that was married to Brian Thomas Jr. with a first-round pick.
11:45So that's kind of what I'm wrestling with. Obviously, I'm a huge Brian Thomas Jr.
11:50guy. But, like, I can't ignore. There's two things.
11:53When we saw the breakout with Brian Thomas, it was them in garbage time just piling up stats with Mac Jones.
12:00With this, it was them fighting for the division, getting hot at the right time, riding the hot hand.
12:07And I don't think that when teams find a winning formula, when they find a player that performs under immense expectations and
12:14pressure, that they're just going to walk away from that and be like, hey, guess we got to go figure it out again.
12:21They might have found a dude, and I think that dude is Parker Washington.
12:26I like it. I like it. Just a note, GM James Gladstone, as you had mentioned, Shev, he's talked about Parker Washington being part of the team's plans.
12:35He's already stated that preliminary contract talks are underway.
12:38So you might want to get some, you know, as a buy as well, some Parker Washington before he's much more difficult
12:46and cemented in price where people are going to have diamond hands on him.
12:50Yeah. For my breakout, I'm going with a tight end on this one because, you know, I like them tight ends.
12:57Like I'm real tight. All right. I'm going Isaiah Likely.
13:00Obviously, free agent just signed with the Giants, right?
13:03But he's coming in right now at FFD tight end premium super flex ADP at 10.04.
13:09So I like that price point a good bit.
13:12And that's what's driving some of this for sure.
13:15Crowdsource rankings back to 529, which was not that long ago.
13:18He was down. He was 122, which I really like that price point.
13:23But he's up 16 spots right now at 102.
13:26Well, he just dropped to 106. So up a couple, you know, not quite 12.
13:31And that's why we need to show this on the screen right now.
13:35So he's at 106. Some good movement here from him.
13:38As we've seen over the last couple of days here, we can see the good movement on the graph here.
13:45But the reason why I'm pegging Isaiah Likely here in as tight as a tight end breakout.
13:50Well, that's good. Yeah. Is we've. All right. So we have a lot of questions about neighbors.
13:56People tell us all, you know, a lot of comments of whether neighbors is done.
14:01Neighbors is this. Well, if neighbors is done, then this is an excellent pick.
14:06I don't think that. But like if half the Internet thinks that, then I think this has got to be a good pick.
14:13And even if he isn't like who is their wide receiver to.
14:17I think it's Isaiah Likely. And when you go look around like the two guys calling the plays, you can not like Nagy if you want.
14:26And Greg Roman is there. Both of those guys throughout their career have been tight end, heavily targeted.
14:32Now, Nagy obviously had Travis Kelsey, which through from 23 to 25 alone.
14:36And we'll call it the back nine of Travis Kelsey's career.
14:40One hundred and twenty one targets in 23, one hundred and thirty three targets in 24 and one hundred and eight and twenty five.
14:48And oh, by the way, Noah Gray had thirty nine, forty and sixty five targets throughout that time.
14:54Right. In Kansas City with Nagy, the one calling some plays over there.
14:58Right. So some opportunity. Theo Johnson could even get opportunity in this situation.
15:02I like Theo a lot. He was somebody who I had as a breakout in January when me and she did this
15:09a while ago because I thought, hey, this position is one of emphasis for New York moving forward.
15:15And it just so happens they got an upgrade of that position, in my opinion here with with Isaiah Likely.
15:22Right. Throughout his career, he's been somebody has been at like fifty nine point two percent slot snap share.
15:28Right. And, you know, fell off a little bit way more slot snaps actually in twenty five, but generally fell off a little bit in twenty five.
15:37Zay Flowers emerged as somebody who Munkin was getting the ball to tight ends weren't a huge part of the game plan for Baltimore in twenty twenty five.
15:46But twenty twenty three twenty twenty four. Like Andrews and Likely had eleven and seven touchdowns.
15:52That's that's one for tight ends was Andrews with eleven and six was likely with seven.
15:57And at that point, Andrews had about a sixty percent snap share or slot share rather.
16:02Right. So and I'm bringing up the slot share because I think that's where Isaiah Likely is going to do most of his damage.
16:10That's what he does. That's where he's the mismatch.
16:13And just where we're going with the tight end position and how they get mismatches and all the personnel changes across the
16:20NFL, like regardless of whether neighbors is healthy or not healthy to start the season or the entire season.
16:27I think Isaiah Likely has a ginormous role on this team.
16:30I think a breakout's coming. I think, you know, at this Travis Kelsey, one hundred and eight and twenty five.
16:37I think that's I'm believing in the breakout because I think there is a 90 target to a 110 target threshold for Isaiah Likely coming here.
16:46And if that happens, then I think this is a full on breakout.
16:50And it's one of the best values right now in tight end premium in the 10th round.
16:56You look at who that receiving today. They signed Odell Beckham, Juju Smith-Schuster, like Braxton Berrios.
17:01Their slot receivers are Calvin Austin. Shout out to him.
17:04I had too much disrespect on his name last year, but, you know, the other Juju might be their other slot.
17:11Berrios is there. They just signed those guys like that's a super soft slot if I did if I've seen one.
17:18Right. Right. So Likely can kind of step right in here, absorb a bunch of targets, be the WR2.
17:24He's a mismatch. There's speed there. He's a nightmare for a safety or a linebacker to cover because he's that tweener kind of situation.
17:32And I think both of these coordinators, obviously, Nagy's the offensive coordinator, but Roman's in that room as well.
17:38Um, that they're going to be focused on figuring out how to get the tight end in this mismatch and somebody who
17:46they brought in to pay money targets. And so I'm going with my breakout as, uh, Malik or the M leak neighbors,
17:53uh, Isaiah likely you got man hurts who they re-signed, right?
17:57He's going to be their blocking tight end when they need him.
18:01So that's, that's not what Isaiah likely is there to do.
18:04He's there to catch passes and create mismatches. There's no, he's only had two drops over the last two years.
18:11Right. Um, and so like you see the inline numbers, uh, with, with likely it's 31%, 40%, 18%, 14.5%.
18:17So he's not going to be that guy. All the things point to, Hey, how can we get this guy in the slot?
18:25How can we get the mismatches? That's why I like him as a, as a breakout, uh, in New York this year.
18:32And this offensive line also should be improved, uh, helping Jackson dark kind of from year one to year two.
18:39So I think all of those things go together.
18:42You get some play action. You get our boy CTE scat pack out there, running the ball play action of the tight end of the mismatch.
18:50I just feel like this is seems like a hand glove fit and almost too good to be true.
18:56Could be completely wrong here, of course, but I think a breakout, the official breakout for Isaiah likely is coming this season.
19:04Man. I love that. I, you know, you, you hit the nail on the head.
19:09I just wanted to go and see, I wanted to go and see what exactly his slot rate was with the Ravens.
19:16So it's 53.8%, which you hit on in 2024.
19:19And it was all the way up to almost 75% in 2025.
19:23Second only in the NFL to Mike Gusecki, who is a noted slot demon as a tight end.
19:29So yeah, I I'm coming around to this. The more that I see, the more the news about Malik neighbors makes me real sad.
19:37I just didn't want to, I didn't want to give up on Theo Johnson, but we got to follow Jeremiah.
19:43What do you always say? We got to, we got to trust GMs.
19:48They don't lie about, they don't lie about contracts and draft capital.
19:52Right. So they just paid, they paid Isaiah likely a huge sum of money.
19:56I feel like he could function as the number two in that offense.
20:01So this is, this is an outstanding call. Yeah.
20:04Three years, $40 million. And you don't want to fall in the, the banana in the tailpipe for let's say a Malachi
20:11fields where it's all one for one. It's going to be neighbors go after fields.
20:16It could end up being somebody like Darnell Mooney.
20:19And instead of thinking of a receiver position, who would be that next feature player?
20:24I think it's very savvy Casey that you're, Hey, you know what?
20:28Why not? I say likely who they invested in and they have the coach lineage, uh, right there as well.
20:34Roman knows him. Harbaugh knows him. They they're bringing in a player that they're familiar with.
20:40I think, I just feel like there's a lot of good, there's a lot of good, uh, different paints to paint and
20:47illustrate a picture on my easel with Isaiah likely.
20:50So, uh, there's a lot of synergy. That's a lot of, a lot of synergy.
20:55All right, Jeremiah, hit us with your next breakout here.
20:58All right. This one's going to be mainstream, but I feel like it's correct.
21:03It's something that we're going to cook up. And I think there's some good consensus here.
21:08There's a lot of steam building up and we're not talking about Cleveland.
21:12It is for Tyler shock saints quarterback. You can get him right now as a mid quarterback too in the dynasty streets, but he's soaring up.
21:21Uh, where I think people are starting to believe that he can be a backend QB one.
21:27I have 20% in super flex, best ball post NFL draft best balls.
21:31I'm almost at 40%. So I have a shitload of Tyler shock money mouth.
21:36I'm there. Bags are packed. Baby also have 52% Jonah Coleman, but that's another story for another day.
21:41Uh, I'm bullish on the offense for the saints.
21:44All right. You got Chris. Allave borderline wide receiver.
21:47One in dynasty. You got Jordan Tyson drafted in round one.
21:51They sneakily brought in Bryce Lance. So we talked about in another show at Jawan Johnson, Oscar Dell at TN out of the backfield.
21:59He can show in the receiving game three seasons at TN receptions, 35, 36, 39.
22:04Also had a standout year with 58 receptions. Tyler shock effectively played 10 real games.
22:09He's listed for 11, but there was a game where it really wasn't cumulative enough for stats.
22:15Uh, five of 10 games though. Half of his games.
22:18He was a QB one last year, ninth in completion percentage versus zone.
22:22So Kellen Moore, Doug Nussmeyer, they're going to be able to draw up concepts first zone to go for shock strength.
22:29I'm going to look for design rushes to increase.
22:32Can we get four to five a game versus one to two each game?
22:37Four carries per game. Can we get that up to six or seven?
22:41All right. Six, seven shout out. 186 rushing yards last year, three rushing touchdowns.
22:46So we extrapolate though. 18.6 rushing yards per game.
22:49A 17 game pace would have been 316 rushing yards that duplicates most years.
22:53What's somebody like Patrick Mahomes does on the ground last year?
22:57Can show your shock live in this territory? Anywhere from 359 rushing yards to 382.
23:02That's Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield who were ninth and 10th respectively.
23:06Baker Mayfield, one rushing touchdown. Trevor Lawrence, nine. Can we live somewhere in the middle and get five for Tyler Shuck?
23:13So these are all just painting a picture. Things that we can have out there for Tyler Shuck.
23:19The production premium was plus 10.9. Second, fourth and team pass plays per game were the Saints last year.
23:25238 passing yards per game. You extrapolate that out for Tyler Shuck and he'd be in the 4,000 passing yard mark.
23:32That being the line of somebody like Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix range.
23:3767% completion percentage. So he's already there. You know how we talk about accuracy for quarterbacks?
23:42Hey, if they could just improve just a little bit.
23:46He's already there. That's why I'm very high on Tyler Shuck breaking out.
23:50So we saw in some of those stats and some of the things you mentioned, there was a little mini breakout.
23:57But you think he's going to achieve like, hey, by this time next year, we're going to be talking about him in
24:04the third, fourth round of startups, essentially. Yep. And Pay Now, look, if you're not early, you're late in fantasy football.
24:11This is one of those players, especially in Dynasty, you need to be early and out ahead of people.
24:17Otherwise, you're going to be late and you're going to have to pay full freight, which will be fine.
24:24But the price of the brick is about to go up for Tyler Shuck.
24:28You can see him at 605 and Super Flexite and Premium May rankings for the FFD over here.
24:34So we're thinking going to be more in this Dak or Trevor range next year when the full breakout comes to town.
24:42So I like that. I like that. Shuck with some rushing, some TD rushing upside and a little bit more targets to work with.
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25:52Chev, why don't you hit me with your second breakout here?
25:56OK, we went way off the beaten path here.
25:59I know that it is, you know, rooting, tooting, booty, scooting, basil tooting in Jacksonville that everybody that's the new hotness.
26:06But I'm going to take a contrarian take here and I'm going to go with Chris Rodriguez because of this.
26:12OK, so Jacksonville basically was at the bottom of the league in terms of running back targets.
26:18All right. 30th and back backfield target share that 22 rushing touchdowns.
26:22There were six in there were six in inside the five attempts in the entire NFL.
26:27OK, but they were 20th in explosive run rate.
26:30So they brought in they gave him the money.
26:33He has his most efficient college season with Liam Cohen going back to University of Kentucky in 2021.
26:39They sought him out in free agency. And I think that this is something that to me, I don't I I want
26:46to pay attention to that because everybody's crowned basil tooting because, you know, the GM said that they Ellen, the GM said
26:54that they were really, really excited about, you know, his his potential.
26:57And they thought he was going to be a day two guy and they got him in.
27:03But then again, they went out and they paid Chris Rodriguez.
27:07So 19 missed tackles forced on 80, 85 carries from weeks nine to 18 in 2025.
27:12And no other running back who had that many missed tackles forced had less than 100 carries.
27:18So on top of that, his explosive run rate and his versatility and gap and zone schemes was outstanding.
27:24And he was at four, six to carry last year.
27:27And people think of him as just kind of a plotter.
27:31He's not going to catch passes, but they don't throw a lot of passes.
27:35As Jeremiah just alluded to with Travis Etienne, he's got one season of 58 receptions.
27:40That was with, I believe, Doug Peterson. Right. And the rest of the time he's been around like last year, he was at what, 36 receptions.
27:49So they're not targeting the running back as a function in this offense that much anyway.
27:54So that's a limited upside role. So if he's going to control potential early down work and the goal line work, and
28:02we're just kind of using Bajal Tootin as a satellite back, then this is a gross misprice.
28:07Like Casey, you've got him at 156 in the rankings.
28:11I had to bump him up from like 230 something to 183.
28:15And I think I need to go higher than that.
28:18So I think that with Chris Rodriguez and the fact that we're talking about this being a high octane offense, we think
28:25it's going to be one of the best offenses in the league.
28:29We think they're going to kind of pick up.
28:32I want as many pieces of this offense as possible.
28:35And being able to get these guys in the double digit rounds, like Parker Washington is damn near a 10th round pick.
28:43I mean, not Bajal Tootin, but Chris Rodriguez is going to be in the 14th or 15th or maybe even later than that.
28:50So I'm really excited about this, if you can't tell, because he's going to have some sort of a role.
28:57And just assuming that everything goes to Bajal Tootin doesn't make any sort of sense whatsoever.
29:02Yeah, I tend to agree. I like the cheapness of Rodriguez.
29:06And I think, you know, Cohen having some familiarity with him, you know, I think he's just going to end up being a thorn in the side.
29:15And, you know, I think Tootin could just make it undeniable where you have to just be him, be the guy.
29:22But I think a lot of the times it's going to be probably closer to a 60-40 split or something along those lines.
29:29And, you know, you're going to be mad that he vultured some short yardage or some TDs, you know, week on week.
29:36And maybe Tootin makes up for it with some catches.
29:40But maybe LaQuinn Allen just comes in and neutralizes a decent amount of the catches because of some third down work, some
29:47good pass protection that we see from him. But, man, I'm just consistently getting somebody like Chris Rodriguez fairly late in drafts.
29:54Yeah, like right here we got him in the 14th round.
29:5814-06. 14-06 right there. And, you know, some of these we're seeing him in 15 and the 16th round, right?
30:05So depending on the room, he can be somebody who you can get, you know, way deep in this thing.
30:11And just he could have an awesome role. It could be nothing.
30:15But I agree. I think there's a decent chance for a little breakout from Chris Rodriguez, especially from, you know, there's different levels of breaking out.
30:24If you're breaking out from the dungeon, you just got to get to the regular floor with the regular people.
30:30And it's a breakout. Wow. Yeah. You know? I mean, he was basically seven fantasy points a game.
30:36I think we could comfortably enter into, you know, double digits, 11, 12 points a game.
30:42He's available in the 14th round. Like, that's an unequivocal win.
30:45And the more that I think about it, the more I'm like, okay, well, he kind of fits all the things that people said Travis Etienne couldn't do.
30:54And we've seen him function as the goal linebacker in Washington.
30:58So, why do I not want a running back on a good offense that could function like, you know, he could function
31:05like Jamal Williams did with the Lions, you know, where he spiked the touchdowns.
31:10Or how David Montgomery has. Now, he's not as good as David Montgomery.
31:14Don't hear what I'm not saying. But the role, like, you could have Bejel Tootin being the space back, the satellite back,
31:22and Chris Rodriguez being kind of the cleanup guy who's going to come in short yardage or early downs or the four-minute drill and kill the clock.
31:31And he's still going to – he can generate explosive runs.
31:34He's not a burner by any stretch of the imagination.
31:37But he generated, like, 6% explosive runs last year.
31:40So, all of that leads me to believe that this is – I'm mispriced here.
31:45And I need to get right so I don't have to be wrong.
31:50This reminds me of a roller coaster where you can go on the way up and cash in this year.
31:56And then, of course, you'll have to see if there's any fall the next.
32:01And, hey, am I going to pay at the top?
32:04This reminds me a lot as, Shev, as you're discussing it, Chuba Hubbard a couple years ago.
32:10Get him in those teen rounds. And then he paid off massively a couple seasons ago.
32:15And just the little pop of the balloon for Bachel Tootin, it can be a real precipitous fall when you account for,
32:22like you said, Casey with LaQuinn Allen. And, of course, how you're talking about Chris Rodriguez, Shev.
32:28There's a lot of paths where it can pay off, especially at that price point for Chris Rodriguez.
32:34So, I like that. Yeah, or we should have just put Tootin on the list and he's going to break out to
32:41a third-round startup pick next year because he's awesome.
32:44But I tend to think that they're going to make it have to have Tootin do that, like ascend to that height, not just give it to him.
32:54That's why I'm with – I like this. I like this breakout.
32:57All right. Last one for me here. This one's Jaden Higgins.
33:01And I don't have a bunch of crazy stats.
33:04I don't have a bunch of crazy things to put because, like, look, he played some last year.
33:10We saw him, and what I saw from him when he was given some opportunity was really nice.
33:16And what we're seeing right now, we're seeing him at 106, I believe, in the crowdsource.
33:21No, that's likely 105. So, one spot ahead of my guy, likely.
33:25He's at 1008 in the Superflex ADP tight end premium ADP.
33:29So, I'm liking a bunch of guys in this range right now.
33:33But, yeah, I mean, at the 105, I think the price point's really good.
33:37Christian Kirk is out of there. Now, maybe Tankdale comes back, and maybe Noel emerges.
33:42But I think with the two guys that you're going to put on the outside, and, you know, obviously, Nico and Higgins
33:50are going to play some slot here and there.
33:53And I would prefer to see, actually, Higgins in the slot a little bit more than we saw him last year.
34:00Because I think he's a nice mismatch in there as kind of that power slot, quote-unquote player.
34:05It was kind of where I liked him. But from what we saw, and I just went back and watched, you know, every target this year.
34:14And, man, it was just impressive whenever you got to see him get an opportunity.
34:19And I think what I'm basing this off of is just year one to year two growth as a wide receiver and role in the offense.
34:27I think what could hold him back is just the O.C.'s just not any good.
34:32He just, this was his first year calling plays this year.
34:36Let's see how he does in his second year.
34:39And, you know, maybe there's some good hope for him.
34:42Or maybe they go a different way on the O.C.
34:46sort of next year. I think that would be the biggest thing that holds him back.
34:51But we've seen an upgraded offensive line in Houston, which was a big bugaboo last year, right?
34:56They drafted Ursary the year prior. And they fixed that left tackle position.
35:01They brought in Wyatt Teller to play left guard.
35:04So the left side of that line feels good.
35:07Their first round pick was Rutledge from Georgia Tech, right, at the 26th spot.
35:11They have Ingram at the right guard spot. But they also drafted a fourth rounder there to compete potentially with him.
35:18And then they brought in Braden Smith. So they've done a good job of kind of putting that line back together like Humpty Dumpty.
35:26It's not a crazily expensive line. They dumped some draft capital into it.
35:31They jumped some free agency money into it. And that's where they needed to focus.
35:35I thought they did a really good job there.
35:38Can the O.C. get them over the hump and get C.J.
35:42Stroud back to what we saw closer to the rookie year than what we saw post-concussion last year?
35:48I hope so. And I hope this line does that.
35:51And if that's what happens, then there is not a doubt in my mind that Jaden Higgins is one of the bigger breakouts in the 2026 season.
36:00You preaching now, son. We didn't open the church doors up twice.
36:04I didn't even bring my collection plate today because I wasn't expecting this.
36:09But here's to add some numbers to what we're talking about here.
36:13So with Jaden Higgins, weeks eight through, I want to say 13.
36:16Yeah, 13 here looking at his game log. So wide receiver 25, 13 points.
36:21Then we got a down week against Denver. Who has an up week against Denver?
36:26Okay. Then Jacksonville, 15.2 points. Tennessee, 9.5 points. Important to note here that he's ruled out on the one-yard line.
36:33So we're looking at a stretch where, because I mean, I'm a Titans fan.
36:37So I remember watching this vividly and I love Jaden Higgins.
36:41So I was like, oh, I was, well, I knew we were going to lose.
36:46So I was like, I can score Jaden Higgins, please.
36:49So, you know, I, we're looking, I mean, that's, that's 15.5 points.
36:53So 13.8 points against Buffalo and 11 and a half points against Indy.
36:57And all of that leads me, he's shown you that he can play football.
37:02Now, do we, can we predict any sort of ceiling outcome for him?
37:06No, absolutely not. Nico's there. Nick Kaley sucks. That's the offensive coordinator.
37:10Got to see how CJ Stroud bounces back when it's, you know, it's time to get paid.
37:16So, but I absolutely, I think that you can't, you've seen him be good at football.
37:21He just wasn't featured for whatever reason. So I think this is, this price point is where you want to get in.
37:29Like Jeremiah said, rollercoaster, using my hands again, rollercoaster.
37:32But you won't want to sell the top with this guy because he's really good at football.
37:37And this is, this could be, if they had a competent play caller, this could be the version of what I think
37:44New Orleans is going to be this year with Jordan Tyson and, and Chris Alave.
37:49We could get a cheaper version of that because Chris Alave is more expensive than Nico right now.
37:55And Jordan Tyson's much more expensive than Jaden Higgins.
37:58So. Yeah, this is, and maybe, maybe it's a little bit of a breakout and we plateau again into next season with Jaden Higgins.
38:06But if, if all things go correct over there, I think it is a straight up line, but I could see this
38:13being another little mini breakout and we just raised the floor a little bit on him.
38:19And the price point goes up a little bit, but I, I love what I saw from him just on the field.
38:26And I know that's just as simply put, but all the, all the parts and pieces to the game that you liked
38:33coming out of college, you saw transition and the coaches couldn't be any more complimentary on like how much this guy works and how much he prepares.
38:42You know, from season one to season two, they're super stoked about where he is right now.
38:48So I, I just, I think this is a really, really fun player on an offense that like we saw what we
38:55thought might be the emergence of the second coming of Joe Burrow and CJ Stroud is rookie year.
39:01Can we just get back to like some of that?
39:04And then Higgins is, is easily somebody that could be facilitated in, into this offense.
39:09And I think he's easily their number two threat.
39:12Like, look, they've been a Xavier Hutchins team. They, they, they re-signed him and brought him back in and he's been around.
39:20He's going to get some targets, but I think he'll soak up some of those Xavier Hutchinson targets that we saw last year.
39:27Like I said, maybe Noel emerges, maybe tank Dell comes back or whatever, but like Christian Kirk is now out of there.
39:34I think this is now going to be the Nico and Higgins show.
39:39And, and Schultz always is in there in the, in the mix, picking up the easy stuff, just being fucking annoying.
39:46Right. You know, but, and he'll be there. And, and they like him, but I think, I think Higgins is going to
39:53turn into a part of the being the, the one B in this, in this offense this year.
39:59So breakout Jaden Higgins. Anybody want to throw a couple of lightning round things before we exit tonight?
40:05Hey, it's a, I know there's consensus here in the room.
40:09Rhonda Gadsden had a month of tight in one week stretch.
40:12Listen to our charger show. Okay. Call back to that.
40:15And then Luther burden. Right. But who doesn't know about Luther burden, but Hey, add into the pile.
40:21Look at all his efficiency, his yards per target, all those metrics yards per route run.
40:27Yeah. Yeah. Luther burden. Yeah. I like it. I like it.
40:30Shev. We good. Yeah. I mean, I just, what's ironically enough, the, the person ahead of Parker Washington and all those categories, miss tackles forced.
40:39All right. All that good stuff was Luther burden.
40:42Yeah. All right. Well, let's wrap up today's show.
40:45We got breakouts for your pleasure. Keep it locked and loaded five-star review.
40:49If you're listening on the podcast and you haven't, I'm not really sure why it's super easy.
40:54Go ahead and help your boys out. It's, it's one of the best things you could do for us.
41:01If you're listening on the pod comment below of who you think should break out or why you think any of these breakouts are dumb.
41:09I'm sure you already will. So, you know, go do your thing in the comments.
41:14Be awesome. We appreciate you guys and we'll catch you next week.
41:18Peace. Hey, I want to thank you for being part of this broadcast.
41:22If you have any thoughts on it, leave a comment.
41:26If you enjoyed it, make sure you leave a like.
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