The FF Dynasty - 5 Assets You NEED TO OVERPAY For ASAP! 2026 Dynasty Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
51 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 30, 2026
Published
Tue, June 30, 2026
6
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Brian Thomas Jr.Gunner OlszewskiJaylen WaddleMac JonesQuinshon JudkinsZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue21:00
The source recently sent a 2027 1st-round pick in a trade to acquire Brian Thomas Jr. in a championship-winning league (5 WR, 2 TE, 2-3 RB, superflex), indicating willingness to overpay for him despite having a loaded roster.
Insight pageGunner Olszewski
PositiveValue46:04
The source recommends overpaying for Olszewski as a tight end with significant opportunity in Tennessee; currently available in the 15th-16th round range despite ADP of 13-12 and RADP of 14-01, making him very cheap relative to upside. The source liked him coming out despite a poor 40-time and sees real opportunity in Tennessee if Cam Newton and the offense improve. The overpay tier for Olszewski is smaller than for higher-profile assets (e.g., two-thirds instead of one, or a third and fourth swap), making him an accessible target. The source is all in on him as a later-round grab with solid player quality and potentially fun opportunity.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue42:44
The source ranks Waddle significantly ahead of consensus and expects him to move way up in value next year in startup drafts, becoming more expensive. The Broncos' acquisition signals organizational belief in his talent as a speedster. Unlike his Miami tenure where Tyreek Hill dominated target share, Waddle is now positioned as a feature guy in Denver, which should unlock his ceiling. The source projects he could jump from round 7 to round 5 next year, and expects the market willingness and value to increase if he performs.
Insight pageMac Jones
PositiveValue48:08
The source recommends overpaying for Mac Jones as a backup QB with significant spike potential; currently available in the 14th round (1409 ADP) after his value has fallen, presenting a buying opportunity. The source's thesis is that if Brock Purdy gets injured, Mac Jones will be traded to an AFC contender team needing a QB, which will dramatically increase his value. The source expects Mac Jones to increase in value when he signs a deal somewhere next year, making the current discount a smash buy. The 49ers' leverage and Mac Jones' stated commitment to the team create a scenario where a desperate AFC team would overpay to acquire him mid-season.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
PositiveValue7:00
The source is willing to overpay for Judkins despite poor rookie surface stats (18th in attempts, 22nd in yards, 22nd in rushing yards per game, 58th in yards per carry, 63rd in success rate). The rationale centers on environmental factors: averaged just 0.4 yards before contact per rush (dead last among 250+ RBs with 150+ rushes from 2012-2025); faced 8-man+ box 45% of the time (2nd most); yet produced 356 yards against stacked boxes (4th overall, behind only Derek Henry 458, A-chan 357, James Cook 333). 62% of yards came after contact (3rd overall). The Cleveland Browns made significant offensive line investments in 2026: drafted Spencer Fano (OT, pick 9), Casey Concepcion (C, 1st/2nd round), Austin Barber (OT, 3rd), Parker Brailsford (C, 5th, 42 starts at Alabama), and two more tight ends (5th, 7th); traded for Titus Howard (RT); signed Elton Jenkins (G/C) and Zion Johnson (G) from the Chargers; added receivers Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin Jr. The source believes this is 'the best foundational process that they've had in a long time.' Last year Judkins had 50% snap share (32nd) but 66.1% attempt share (3rd), indicating the Browns wanted to use him heavily. Expected improved offensive line and quarterback play (Shador Sanders or Deshaun Watson) should unlock his talent. The source compares Judkins' situation to second-year breakout potential similar to Jamison Williams, noting that Judkins did not have a normal offseason in his rookie year and is recovering from injury; the source believes the second year 'like take a breath for players is so valuable' and expects 'the winds are changing in Cleveland.'
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue3:00
The source ranks Flowers as WR14 individually vs. consensus WR22, believes he will be more expensive next year, and is willing to overpay now. Targets have increased all three seasons (118 last year); 2.52 yards per route run (elite efficiency); 14 yards per reception; 19 explosive plays of 20+ yards; year-over-year growth from 2024 to 2025 with 152 additional receiving yards, 12 more receptions, and one more touchdown; yards per route run improved from 2.25 to 2.52; 10th in expected fantasy points per game at 14.7 last year. First in drops with 10 (indicates opportunity for regression and upside). First in juke rate for evaded tackles per reception, showing YAC ability. The biggest hurdle is whether new offensive coordinator Ken Doyle can execute the new system. If he can, the source believes 'you couldn't pay enough for Zay right now.' The new coordinator is a Sean Payton protege with Ben Johnson influence; Lamar Jackson has called it 'a mind blowing offense.' The source previously was anti-Zay Flowers in prior years but has shifted conviction, calling it 'the Zay Flowers year' and noting that the redraft market is pushing him higher while the dynasty market is moving slower, creating an opportunity.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:44What is good? We're back. And today we are going to overpay.
0:48So these are all players we would overpay for, right?
0:51And sometimes in life to get what you want, you gotta overpay.
0:55And look, if this is an intentional process driven move and we aren't just following the crowd, we're trusting our evaluation enough
1:02to reach ahead of the room and secure the talent we believe in.
1:06And we think that maybe consensus might be a little too low on them.
1:11Overpay, baby. Another way to look at this is just kind of saying over consensus, right?
1:16Jeremiah, how you doing? Hey, sometimes you have to reach around, Casey.
1:20That's right. And, you know, overpaying doesn't mean just being reckless and throwing your high-end picks into the wind and your high-end players to make a deal happen.
1:29And simply, this is just saying normally for a player in this range, you would pay this and I'm willing to pay a little bit more than that.
1:38Meaning, you know, you give up some extra picks or maybe you would do a pick swap or you normally wouldn't get
1:45this guy or you use some of your positional wide receiver two or running back twos or threes to get this deal done.
1:52Or you're throwing in bench players that are flex-worthy or have long-term upside.
1:56This is when I want to use those depth players that I've built up that have some upside to somebody else, right?
2:04And if we're talking like startup draft-wise, these are, again, players that we would just go a little bit above consensus on
2:11to make sure that they're on my roster. So just kind of making that clear of kind of the way we're viewing the overpay statement.
2:19So Jeremiah, why don't you kick us off? Give us a few players.
2:23Start with one at a time. Yeah. That you would overpay for here.
2:27And also, when people, essentially, if people are going to haggle, you're not going to see that as a hassle for yourself
2:34when you're trying to acquire these players. That extra second is going to grease the deal.
2:39You know, one of the best things to do to get a sale.
2:43If you ever worked in sales, you just say to the other person, what's it going to take to make this deal get done?
2:51What's it going to take? What do I got to do to put you in this car today?
2:57Absolutely. And just transparency. You may end up getting to a no, but you get to a no sooner.
3:03But that's just a little bit of something there.
3:06You can apply it in your trade negotiations. But let's talk about Zay Flowers, who I have above consensus.
3:12But looking in our master dashboard, Casey, all three of us, the dashboard has them at 64.
3:17But Chev has them at 39. I'm at 44.
3:20And you're at 57. So all three of us have Zay Flowers ranked higher.
3:25I have him as my wide receiver 14. And consensus markets will put him right about wide receiver 22.
3:31So I'm already baking in next year. Zay Flowers is going to be more expensive.
3:36He may even be more expensive, in my opinion, than the wide receiver 14 value.
3:40Right now I'm calling it from 22. It's going to go up.
3:44And I am happy to overpay. Wide receiver 7 last year in 2025.
3:48Some people think that that's fluky. I think that's just a trend in the right direction.
3:54Targets in all three seasons for Zay Flowers, Casey, have gone up.
3:57118 last year for him. Can we jump into that 130?
4:01140 range. That's what we're looking for. 2.52 yards per route run.
4:05So there's elite efficiency showing he wins consistently. Zay Flowers, 14 yards per reception last year.
4:1019 explosive plays of 20 or more yards. Okay.
4:13Year over year growth. Last year, 24 to 25.
4:16Another 152 receiving yards. An extra 12 receptions. Another touchdown.
4:19His yards per route run jumped from 2.25 to 2.52.
4:22So we're just seeing this drip campaign. If you look at his stats, each year they get better and better.
4:2910th in expected fancy points per game last year at 14.7.
4:32First in drops was Zay Flowers with 10. And that's, it sounds like a bearish stat.
4:37If you hone in on the fact that there's opportunity there.
4:41And a chance to regress. That's even more opportunity for Zay Flowers to get those numbers up.
4:46He was first in juke rate for evaded tackles per reception.
4:50In the PPR league, some yak ability. That's going to be out there.
4:54So I'm very much, I'm happy to overpay on Zay Flowers.
4:57I feel like the redraft market is pushing him higher.
5:01And for some reason, the dynasty market is moving just a little bit slower.
5:05But I think Casey, that's where we can take that opportunity and advantage.
5:09And trying to just throw everything you can at Zay Flowers.
5:13Yeah. I mean, some people would say, hey, they went and drafted a couple of players, wide receivers in the draft.
5:20So maybe they're signaling to you. And it's like, I don't, I don't think so, man.
5:25I think, you know, obviously we need the, the biggest hurdle we need to get over is Ken Declan Doyle do it.
5:32That's really my only question. And if he can, then I think, I think you couldn't pay enough for Zay right now,
5:39because I think we saw it a little bit from Roman to Munkin.
5:43And then now we've seen it a little bit, you know, for this offense.
5:48And now hopefully this Sean Payton protege with a little bit of Ben Johnson sprinkled in can kind of take Lamar and
5:55this, you know, offense to the next level. And you're already seeing Lamar saying, this is a mind blowing offense.
6:01So blow my mind, Zay. Well, hey, if you also have an aging Mark Andrews, you have that bullishness to the new system.
6:08People are used to being disappointed in the Ravens offense from a receiver perspective.
6:13And there is just that like old outdated thought of a Lamar Jackson can't necessarily support a high end fancy wide receiver.
6:20And I think you're going to see that change this year.
6:24I've been in the past, Chev and I too, we've been anti-Zay Flowers in prior years.
6:29And we've seen the shift. Okay. Better to be wrong and then right and then never right at all.
6:35Fortunately, we've been correct so far. And on this ship, we're changing direction.
6:39And I think we're going to be right again.
6:42So right now we've run pure on Zay Flowers.
6:45We're calling it right now. I'm calling it. It's going to be the Zay Flowers year and you're going to want him.
6:52So go and overpay. Casey, who are you thinking of overpaying for?
6:56Well, I'm so glad that you asked, Jeremiah. I love the Zay.
6:59Zay's been, you know, I know you haven't been on this podcast for long, but going back to Zay's rookie campaign coming in as a rookie.
7:08He was one of our favorites. Those are my those are the guys that always get my hearts is the Zay Flowers of the world.
7:16The the lads, the Luther burdens. Those are those are if I got a type.
7:21Those are those are it. So I really like really like Zay Flowers.
7:25I like that call mine. I'm going with Quinshawn Judkins.
7:28Shout out to Shev. Not here right now. But look, I'm still in the cement aisle.
7:33And if you weren't if you haven't been here and this is the first time we're tuning in, you know, that's what
7:40Shev says when he's when he's excited about a player.
7:43He's in the cement aisle. Right. Playing with power tools.
7:47So but I'm still in the cement aisle with Quinshawn Judkins.
7:50Right. And this look, this wasn't fast setting concrete.
7:53We used to pour the foundation with you want to keep that.
7:57You want to keep the concrete moist. A nice slow cure makes things way stronger.
8:02So, you know, some people say you could build after seven days.
8:06We're waiting the full 28 to start framing. All right.
8:09Quinshawn Judkins came out and you can look at his performance in black and white in them sheets and say pretty gross.
8:16Right. Eighteenth in attempts. Twenty second in yards. Twenty seconds in rushing yards per game.
8:21Fifty eighth in yards per carry. Sixty third in success rate.
8:24So just why would you want to overpay for Judkins and have anything to do with the Cleveland Browns?
8:30And while that is a damn good question, but if you start to look at some of the hows and whys and
8:37again, you could just say it's Cleveland. I'll pass.
8:40But there's a lot of factors in Cleveland of saying why this was a problem.
8:45But in twenty twenty five, a thing that had been somewhat of a strong suit in Cleveland throughout chunks of the tumultuous
8:52last few years, the offensive line was really deteriorating.
8:55Right. And this is it was a big problem for Cleveland last year.
8:59Yards per contact, yards before contact per rush. And this was a stat from Jacob Gibbs on Twitter.
9:05If you haven't followed him, make sure you go follow him.
9:08So rookie season for Quinshawn Judkins, he averaged just point four.
9:12Oh, yards before contact per rush. That was dead last out of two hundred and fifty running backs with one hundred and
9:19fifty plus rushes in the data set from twenty twelve to twenty twenty five.
9:24So that just kind of is setting up how bad it was for not even having an option of going anywhere.
9:30Gentry was also bad last year in that stat.
9:33But Quinshawn took the cake there. Now you start to look at the stack boxes.
9:38Judkins face an eight man plus box over forty five percent of the time ranking second.
9:43But but most yards against stack boxes, eight man or plus in there in twenty twenty five.
9:49You had Derek Henry at four hundred fifty eight.
9:51James Cook at three hundred and thirty three. A-chan at three hundred fifty seven.
9:56And then here's Quinshawn Judkins fourth on that list.
9:59Three hundred and fifty six. And then the other names on that list are Travion, Kenny Walker, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ramondre and Travis Etienne.
10:07If you notice that list, I just read off.
10:10Almost every single one of those other running backs are premier running backs in the league.
10:15Henry Cook, A-chan Walker. I mean, Walker just kind of got there.
10:19But Christian McCaffrey, Etienne. And then you might say some of those guys aren't premier, but they're they're fantasy relevant running backs.
10:26They get the job done and win you money.
10:29Right. Have you ever looked at someone else's rankings and strongly disagreed with them?
10:33But the tedious process of actually making your own personal rankings is just too daunting?
10:38Well, the FFDynasty.com has you covered. Head over to the site, create a free membership and start swiping.
10:44Each individual decision you make is not only helping to contribute to the overall crowdsource rankings, but it's also being logged in your own personal database.
10:52Put in enough swipes and unlock your very own personal dynasty rankings based on each individual swipe decision you've made.
10:59It's that simple. Head over to the FFDynasty.com and get your swipe on.
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11:34And we're live from the living room as Doug eyes up the match day spread.
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11:57It's poetry in motion. 62% of Judkins yards came after contact.
12:01I believe that was good for third overall. Right.
12:04So then, you know, you're saying, what do the Browns do?
12:07Well, they get in a lab with a pen and a pad and they get this damn label off.
12:13Right. Right. In the NFL draft, they go take Spencer Fano at eight or at nine rather offensive tackle.
12:19Then they draft Casey Concepcion in Boston first and second round.
12:23So they had an extra first and an extra second.
12:26They take Austin Barber out of Florida offensive tackle in the third.
12:30The fifth rounder. The fifth rounder. They go with another center.
12:34Parker Brailsford out of Alabama. He had 42 starts for the Crimson Tide.
12:38And then they take two more tight ends in the fifth and the seventh.
12:42Right. One primarily a blocking one that could have some blocking upside.
12:46Then in the offseason, they trade for Titus Howard, who will slide in at right tackle.
12:51Help sure up that spot coming over from the Texans.
12:54They signed Elton Jenkins, who played guard, but then had switched to center.
12:59So we'll see where he ends up on that offensive line as it kind of comes together over the summer.
13:05He could be their center. Kind of some people are alluding to that.
13:09But they also could use some help at the guard position.
13:13They signed Zion Johnson from the Chargers, which is pretty mad.
13:16But again, Jenkins could potentially slide over to that spot and maybe Brailsford or Luke Weibler will step up and camp and could play center for him.
13:25Right. So obviously, you know, there's still big questions, but then they also added in that whole list.
13:31They added Boston and Casey to go along with Fannin.
13:34And we have the holdover receivers of Bond Tillman and Judy just adding more potential firepower and offense.
13:40All of these things should potentially maybe help loosen up some boxes if we can get a little bit better protection.
13:46Right. Where we can see Judkins get from, because if you look at then go back and look at what Judkins was doing with that.
13:54Yeah, the numbers don't look great, but the film is actually very impressive from seeing what Judkins was doing with kind of what he was getting there.
14:03And look, if we could just stabilize this ship a little bit.
14:07And we've been trying to say that in Cleveland for a long time, but this seems to be like the best foundational
14:14process that they've had in a long time that I can remember.
14:18And look, we get a quarterback. That's right. Or, you know, hey, Shador or Deshaun, they might get through the season and
14:25it could just be mad enough to that. Judkins has a pretty good season, but we're playing dynasty here.
14:31Right. So I want to overpay for this guy.
14:34I could see the starts of maybe ascension for Cleveland here.
14:37And I want to buy in and overpay a little bit.
14:41I like Judkins as a prospect. I like what I saw from Judkins last year, even though some of the raw numbers were garbage.
14:49But we can kind of make rationale and reasons for that.
14:52We upgrade the line. We upgrade the firepower on offense.
14:55If Shador and Deshaun can just be fine, it's kind of like a Geno Smith scenario.
15:01Right. If we could just be fine, this offense is probably going to be fine.
15:05It's going to be awesome. But then we come in, we get another shot of the quarterback next year.
15:11They have two first round picks already in 2027.
15:14Right. Munkin, I think, is a fine enough coach.
15:17So I just think there's a lot of things pointing up.
15:21Look, last year he was at a 50% snap share, which was at 32nd, but a 66.1% attempt share, which was third.
15:28So they got him to use him. Right. And I just, I think that he's got all this, all the, all the
15:35juice, all the things that you want. You know, you can't point to a whole lot of indicator stats that this is
15:42going to be a great breakout outside of the evaluation of the talent of the player.
15:47And I think there is a little ascension. Look, you know, what was Tampa going to do after Brady Baker?
15:53You know, what was that going to go? How was that going to go?
15:58Jacksonville has been dead in the water. Nobody liked Trevor Lawrence until people still don't like Trevor Lawrence.
16:04Right. You know, Sam Darnold was, was dead and resurrected over there in, in Minnesota, help them out.
16:10You know, lots of different things can get like Matt Jones could be a Cleveland Brown next year.
16:15Right. And then things could be, you know, so for so long we sit around, I mean, the Redskins further, sorry, the commanders forever.
16:23We're just a hopeless or, you know, things do eventually sometimes change.
16:27I'm not saying Cleveland's going to do it, but I like Judkins.
16:31I don't mind overpaying me and me and big co have been on the prowl and FFPC is trying to make deals for Judkins all over the place.
16:40We did a deal for him and, you know, and traded away Garrett Wilson to get Judkins in a package.
16:46Right. So we're out there hustling, doing our thing, going after it.
16:50Right. You know, so, Hey, how do you feel about that?
16:53Is that, is that too much? I rambled for a while there and we can keep it moving.
16:59I love it. I blacked out in the cement aisle, as I would say, uh, Judkins though, he goes ahead of Cam
17:06Scadabo and you know, the market likes him. He's just behind.
17:10Okay. The clump of Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Christian McCaffrey.
17:13So the market is a little bit more to your point, Casey, and to what you were talking about.
17:19It's only crazy until it happens. So after the fact, people were like, Oh, could you imagine it any differently when the Browns get better?
17:27It people will be like, Oh crap. This does make sense.
17:31Harold Fannin jr. You mentioned conception, Denzel Boston, all the offensive line improvement.
17:35And of course the prospect profile of Quinchon Junkins.
17:38Uh, your point, Shador Sanders had near tops in the league time to throw.
17:42And of course we know his issue is holding the football, but that offensive line was a pass blocking unit.
17:49So now the reinforcements who can come in, let's get a little bit more attack on the run blocking.
17:55And then what's going to help right as rain literally and snow as the year wears on into November and December, we've
18:02had some dog water, fancy football games in Cleveland that get wrecked just because of winds and all that.
18:08Well, guess what running the football, putting the football in the belly of Quinchon Junkins is going to be beneficial.
18:14So I really like a lot of the salient points that you're making.
18:19Yeah. And we thought it was going to be up after that Miami dolphins game, three touchdowns, 26 fancy points.
18:25We were really excited. Week seven, another key indicator that people are forgetting.
18:29This is a little bit of the Jamison Williams corollary.
18:32Junkins did not have a normal off season on.
18:35And that was the last thing I was going to end with.
18:39Absolutely. Yeah. Go ahead. Yeah. And he, in the busiest off season is that rookie adjustment to the rookie season.
18:45It's the longest off season of having to be on having to get all your crap.
18:51Just right. That second year, like take a breath for players is so valuable.
18:55I guarantee you, if you ask Junkins, he would talk about all those things and confirm it.
19:01And he is ready. Of course, he's recovering from an injury too.
19:04I think all the things were stacked against him.
19:07Part of that, as you said, in Cleveland Brown, but the winds are changing in Cleveland.
19:12And I love your call on Junkins. Yeah. I got it.
19:16You got to, you got to make a, make a call or two here, but yes, no, absolutely.
19:22And you could say, Hey, maybe you'll start slow and you could buy them there and for lower, but I'm, I'm, I'm
19:29going in and I was just going to brought up the trade that me and Big Co made in a FFPC, FFPC 250.
19:36Now we are stacked at wide receiver. We've got guys like CD lamb and, and Puka and, and a bunch of high end wide receivers.
19:44So Garrett Wilson was like our fifth receiver in this situation.
19:48Uh, so we did trade Garrett Wilson for Juwan Johnson and it's tight end premium.
19:53And we needed a backup tight end. Um, and we, we, we, we've, we came in second.
19:58We've, we've, we've been in first, we've been in third.
20:01So we've been all up in the money and we're trying to stay in it.
20:06We need another running back on this team. We traded Garrett Wilson for Juwan Johnson, Quinchan Judkins, and Matthew golden.
20:12Now you could say, Hey, that's, that's too much.
20:15I wouldn't give up that for Garrett Wilson. You know, I w I would keep Garrett Wilson, but Hey, we wanted to
20:22overpay and get us some Quinchan Judkins. And that's just what we did.
20:27Right. That's a, that's a real big money league.
20:29I love that move. Who's to say that the outcome will be so much different between just one for one in a vacuum, Garrett Wilson and Quinchan Judkins.
20:38So I actually liked the fact that you squeezed off a couple other pieces there.
20:43Yeah. You could say Juwan Johnson is nothing, but Juwan Johnson scores fantasy points, man.
20:48You know, and, and, and, and, you know, golden is just somebody who could be a lottery.
20:54It could be nothing. It could be a cut by next year, but it could be a lottery ticket.
21:00Well, it opens up viability and this is liquidity of the player.
21:03You get two good weeks from Matthew golden. Let's say it's week four and five.
21:08Exactly. People are shitting bricks and saying, Oh, wait a second.
21:12Let me go get him. And if you don't believe in him, you still have an opportunity to offload him.
21:18So there's peaks and troughs to all of this.
21:21So I love that deal for you. And you were telling me over Pam, like crap, that that's a really good deal.
21:28For just Wilson. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Give me, give me your next overpay here.
21:33Jeremiah. It's going to be Brian Thomas jr. I recently did, you know, we were in a chat.
21:39What seemed to be like an overpay. I sent a 27 one and I was in the championship last year in this
21:46league and there, it starts five wide receivers. It's super flex two or three running backs.
21:51Sorry, two tight end five wide receivers. It's a ton of fun.
21:55And I've got a loaded roster and I was just like, you know what?
21:59Let me fire it away. That's going to be, I'm already looking at, it's a late 27 first and they countered and they wanted Antonio Williams.
22:08Guess what? I'll over, I'll overpay it. I'll throw it in.
22:11It doesn't matter to me that somebody else wins.
22:14If I win. Right. If they get a benefit, you know, too many people get, they miss out on deals because the other team benefited.
22:22Well, if the other team benefits to their point, maybe they're rebuild.
22:26Maybe they've got two 27 ones now and they get the year viability of waiting out Antonio Williams because we don't know
22:33what's going to happen with Stefan Diggs, maybe going to Washington.
22:37But I was happy to pay for some Brian Thomas jr.
22:40If you're going to squeeze counter me, fine. I'm not worried about, Hey, is it 60, 40?
22:46I wanted BTJ 2024, 1282 receiving yards, 87 receptions on.
22:49133 targets, 10 touchdowns, elite red zone threat. And he had very reliable hands last year.
22:54That was an issue with him. 2.44 yards per route run his rookie season.
22:58Brian Thomas jr. 14.75 yards per reception at 18 explosive plays over 20 yards or more.
23:04Remember he had like an 85 yard touchdown, which had a lot of yak to it last year.
23:09What are some bullish things for BTJ? 10th and unrealized air yards, 767.
23:13So imagine the connection improving. That's just actual evidence of there's yards to be had.
23:18We talk about in the industry how vacated targets aren't really a thing.
23:22You know, you're, they're earned. But unrealized air yards in a sense are something that's earned.
23:28Right. Just that you can attach it to the outcome.
23:31If that ball was more accurate. And then of course catching the ball.
23:35And we see improvement in players all the time.
23:387th and ADOT last year. So the deep threat, the deep target with the athleticism is so worth it.
23:44And BTJ was 8th and deep targets with 23.
23:47So again, you just ask that Socratic method question of if we get more of a connection, literally the ball being caught
23:54between the two points of Lawrence to BTJ, we're going to get improvement between that first year and that second year.
24:01I think there's a middle and I think that middle is actually closer to the rookie season version of BTJ.
24:07Yeah. I, I, I don't know what to do with this Jaguars offense.
24:11There's so many, there's so many, there's, there's, there's Parker Washington love in the streets.
24:16There's BTJ love coming back. There's strange love. But I don't mind paying for anybody in this offense is, but right now
24:23they're, they're priced at a spot where I'm okay with any of it.
24:27Right. And so I don't mind overpaying a little bit for, for either which one of them.
24:33Right. Because it's not like some, like you said, your first plus, you know, a second round rookie this year.
24:39Yeah. Some people could definitely say that's overpay. Some people will say, I'll pay that all day long.
24:45Right. But you know, I think that's about where we, like, I would have thought a 27 first would get you BTJ
24:52is because of where the 27 first are priced currently.
24:55Right. But Hey, I, I like it. I think even if we're somewhere in between what we got the first year and
25:02what we got the second year, that's probably a win.
25:05Right. And it's not just one year. Jacoby won't be around forever.
25:09BTJ morphs back into a one, one, a one B some weeks.
25:13That's a huge win. And on the other side of what I talked about earlier, if I'm saying to my trade partner,
25:20what's it going to take to make this deal happen?
25:23And they come through, you want to be a reasonable person.
25:27And they say, yeah, Antonio Williams on top. Yes.
25:30Okay. So you're, you're like already right there on the precipice of a deal.
25:34Did I get squeezed? I really don't think so.
25:37Did I overpay in the moment? I think so.
25:40Absolutely. But you got to make two sides for a good deal.
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27:40All right, my next guy up here. I'm going to go with Tyler Warren.
27:45I was going to go Fannin, but I felt like I couldn't justify two Browns.
27:50They also added two higher-end pass-catching assets. So it was like, eh.
27:54Meanwhile, Tyler Warren, the Colts subtracted one of their main targets in 2026 in Michael Pittman.
27:59Right? And if we go back to the rookie scenarios of 2025 and them streets of Colston Loveland versus Warren.
28:05Right? While both had good rookie seasons and Loveland has certainly been the preferred asset in year two here.
28:11And for good reason, the environment's a lot of fun.
28:14And a big part of it is, though, like how he finished the back half of the season, which was lovely.
28:21It was brilliant. It was a peach. I've been watching too much soccer.
28:25Sorry, guys. But we've also forgotten how good of the start of the season that Tyler Warren had.
28:31You know, and while we can look at Warren's overall season and say, man, that was one hell of a rookie season.
28:38He finishes a top five tight end and tight end premium.
28:42I mean, what else do you want from a rookie tight end outside of this emerging maple syrup conglomerate that is the Chicago Bears offense?
28:50They're fantastic. And, of course, you want a piece of it.
28:53And the last thing you remember is, of course, the best thing.
28:57And that was Colston Loveland. And I'm not not.
29:00This is no knock on Colston Loveland by any means.
29:03But as good as that season was, the first 10 games of Tyler Warren were so damn good, man.
29:09Like he was he had 64 targets. These are these are weeks one through 10.
29:14And I bring up one through 10 because you remember that run that the Colts went on.
29:20Right. They were they were so good. Eight and two, I think, through the first 10 games.
29:25The offense was outstanding. And then we started to see the wheels kind of fall off the boat there.
29:31Offensive line injuries, just, you know, things just kind of started to get a little wonky.
29:36And haywire. But I bring up those first 10 games just because we saw kind of where this offense can be and
29:43can go and what Tyler Warren can do, even as a rookie.
29:4764 targets, which was third. 50 receptions, which was third.
29:50617 yards, which was number one. Fifth in total team yard market share at 23 percent.
29:56His yards per route run 2.13 were sixth. His yak was 386.
29:59That was first overall, which, you know, you could say isn't necessarily the most coolative thing, but I'm a sucker for the yak.
30:07I like it. And I think that's what Tyler Warren does really, really well.
30:11Well, in first read target shares, 22.5 percent, that was fourth.
30:15Inside the 20, 11 targets, that was fourth. His target share just overall was fifth, 19.8.
30:20Air yard share, 13.7. That was only 15th, but the yak can make up for some of that, right?
30:26His route percentage, third overall targets per route run, ninth overall, first downs per route run, fifth overall.
30:32Like he's up there with all the guys. And then you're going through here and you're looking at if you're looking at
30:39season totals, then inside the 20 targets, 18 inside the 10 targets, nine for that.
30:44Both of those are fifth out of all the tight ends.
30:47Now, I think he only scored what? Four four touchdowns on the season.
30:51Five touchdowns on the season. I don't have the TDs.
30:55He had four right in front of me. But if we're looking at all those numbers like that, it was crazy that he didn't score more touchdowns.
31:03Right. So if you add a touchdown threshold, that's closer to 10 than four.
31:08I mean, Jesus, Tyler Warren and what he could do.
31:11And now there's no Michael Pittman there. Like this is somebody who I'm absolutely just I'm I'm laying it on the line.
31:18I'm just flopping it out there and I'm getting the Tyler Warren while everyone's looking over at Colson Loveland.
31:24And I'll gladly take Colson Loveland. But we've got like round like a round difference in between those guys and startups right now sometimes.
31:32And it's glorious. Now, we also are big Tucker Craft family around here.
31:36But I think Tyler Warren is it's hard to say he's being slept on because he's still being drafted very high.
31:43But like if his he had the great first half of the season, Loveland had the great back half of the season.
31:50And everybody loves Loveland, which is great. And I'm not again, not hating on Loveland at all, even a little bit.
31:57Both are great. But I think Tyler Warren is somebody that I absolutely want on every single possible squad that I could get.
32:04It's not mutually exclusive. It's like the whole Caleb and Jayden Daniels thing.
32:08I remember rookie season saying, I'm in on Jayden Daniels.
32:11He's going to be the guy. But it doesn't mean Caleb Williams is going to be much less.
32:17Right. And heading into year two, I was like, hey, both can be true.
32:22Both can be great. And then we've seen a flippening with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
32:27Granted, year three could tell a different story. Of course.
32:30Both can be true. You can love Loveland and love Tyler Warren.
32:34I think being able to delineate that is pretty critical.
32:37It's critical thinking. But you got me feeling emotional about this because I'm like, yes, this is everything I've been feeling.
32:44That first half of the season absolutely happened. Eight out of nine weeks to start from the jump as a rookie tight
32:51end was a tight end one, Tyler Warren. You laid out all the stats.
32:55I had some other stats on there that I was going to read, but you nailed it because he ends up being
33:02a tight end four amongst all the downfall of the back half of that season.
33:07And another thing that would happen with him, too, where you left feeling like there should have been more.
33:13I know this exact feeling. He would start off like the first quarter getting peppered in those first 15 scripted and then
33:20first half he would do really well. And then as the game wore on, it was like they didn't design enough around him.
33:28So I think there's going to be growth there.
33:31There's going to be even more. And it's one of those things where you watch him as an absolute baller in college.
33:38And you're like, yeah, this guy is going to kill it at the next level.
33:42And we saw that and we were just cut off at the knees from everything.
33:47Yeah. And you had mentioned something about Pittman being gone.
33:50Let's key in on the fact that, too, Alec Pierce may miss early into the season.
33:56And that's just going to be I know we're high on Josh Downs.
34:00He's a cheaper player. But my God, it's lining up for what do you want in an offense?
34:06Top one or two targets to be featured for your tight end.
34:09You mentioned Tucker Craft. All right. We love the Tucker Craft and the Christian Watson show.
34:15Well, how about the Tyler Warren? And then at least to start off the season, the Josh Downs show, and then we'll see where Pierce leads off.
34:23And then we're getting a healthy Daniel Jones. I love it, man.
34:27I love that call. Yeah. Me too, baby. Me too.
34:30Give me your last guy for the overpay living above consensus episode from the FF Dynasty.
34:35What do you got? It's going to be Carnell Tate.
34:39And I've moved him up, Casey, just before the show.
34:42I had him at wide receiver 13. I put him up to wide receiver nine behind Drake London, just ahead of Ted Arora McMillan.
34:50Woo! Woo! Yeah. That's spicy. Yeah. So we have to ask Shev because the funniest part about this whole thing is Shev
34:57was like patient one or patient zero on the train ride for Carnell Tate.
35:01And hey, man, Shev, I got to hear from you, buddy.
35:05You know, we got to talk about this. How high is too high for Carnell Tate?
35:10Because right now I'm pushing him to wide receiver nine, 130, 140 target path in an ascending.
35:15And this is a buy-in from Cam Ward. If it was some slapdick quarterback on the Tennessee Titans on a bad team, it'd be another thing.
35:24But this is Cam Ward who not many people who watch Cam Ward say bad things about him.
35:29When you hear analysis about heading into year two, it's a lot of people who are bullish on Ward, are bullish for
35:36the fact that they watch what he could do with what he was dealt.
35:41And now with Dayball coming in, Wanda Robinson, you got DK and A.O.
35:45Manor who, hey, look at our sleeper stash show.
35:48They're not nothing burgers. And Gunner Helm, I know, Casey, you might have a little bit to say about Gunner Helm.
35:55Gunner Helm is just built, man. He and JT Sanders, very similar.
35:59There's something that Texas has a type. And I know Sanders hasn't taken off, but both of them are just absolutely built.
36:06And Gunner Helm, you talk about not having a good offseason leading into his rookie season.
36:11He had that injury at the combine. I think he's taking a lot tutelage at the tight end university that's going on.
36:18But all this draws back again to Cardinal Tate.
36:21I'm absolutely overpaying in a startup. Absolutely going to reach around.
36:24Reach it around, baby. All right. I don't have a third guy, but what we're going to do here is we're going
36:31to end with kind of a little bit more rapid fire questions.
36:35We're going to talk about some rookies that we would overpay for, whether it's a rookie draft or a startup draft, like
36:42guys that we are a little above consensus on or we see kind of some value in where they're falling.
36:49And then just maybe like a mid to later round target of, you know, player that we would overpay on and live above consensus with.
36:57So, you know, rookie wise, who would be some, well, I can lead off since you just did the last one.
37:03And I could, I can, I can throw kind of two out there.
37:08One is, you know, I've been seeing Makai Lemon fall in some drafts and I'm, I'm willing to come up and overpay
37:15to get into the spot to grab Makai Lemon.
37:17If, if he falls back, like, I think we went from being him to be like the number one receiver in this
37:25league that people being like, for some reason he stinks now.
37:28And I've been talking about how, you know, I think this is a, an opportunity of these, these are the cheapest picks
37:35have been in a long time because people are either a just, they, they've just made this whole to do about how bad this class stinks.
37:43And I don't, I don't know that it necessarily stinks.
37:47It's just not as robust as maybe we've been with some of the great things and it's okay to not, everything doesn't
37:54need to be the best ever, but I still think there's a lot of good talent in here and things are really cheap.
38:01So I would throw Makai Lemon in there as somebody who I would, as a rookie, I'd be higher on.
38:08And then Antonio Williams would certainly be somebody that, you know, as this whole process is worn on I've been, I've been pretty bullish on grabbing him now.
38:17Hopefully Iook stays the hell out of Washington, but how about you, man?
38:21Well, one question with Makai Lemon, do you think going back to God, remember how many times we were like, well, you
38:28know, the Rams would be a great place for Makai Lemon?
38:31You remember all these teams we did a million times.
38:35Do you think Makai Lemon goes to the Rams?
38:37It's neck and neck with Tate and being tied to Stafford in the McVay offense.
38:42It's changed that much where there's a little bit of a gap.
38:46It seems like it. And I just, you know, I like Phil.
38:50I like Philadelphia. I think, I think it's a good team.
38:53I think they're going to be attacking over the middle a little more.
38:58They're signaling to us. That's what they want to do.
39:01I, you know, I just, I think they know what they're doing with players, right?
39:06They know how to, they're not drafting a guy to not know what to do with him, right?
39:11This is a good organization. So again, Makai Lemon's, you know, he'll fall into the seventh round in startups now where he
39:18was going in like the third and the fourth when we were doing these kind of pre-draft sometimes, you know, third, fourth,
39:26fifth, you were getting all those guys and, you know, all the rest of those rookies that we're talking about with, you
39:33know, Concepcion and all that other stuff, they, they, or rather Tyson and Tate, they all, they all go ahead of, of
39:40Lemon by, you know, a little bit there. So I find it very interesting that he's kind of, especially in startups been definitely the odd man out.
39:48So, so we, it's established you would reach around for Makai Lemon.
39:52Now with Makai Lemon, I think it's actually where you're ahead of consensus with Makai Lemon is for the fact that fantasy
39:59sentiment market is more bearish on Jalen Hurts feeding.
40:02It's a little bit of what's happened with AJ Brown.
40:05So I think that's where you have a little more faith in that happening.
40:10For me, that rookie, it's a truncation that I noticed in my ranks and we were talking pre-show.
40:16I was like, Hey, let me move Denzel Boston from the 13 up to the 109 in the rookie ranks.
40:22And that is a little bit more to, it's funny how water finds this level more to what happened pre NFL draft
40:29where we had Denzel Boston and you can get him right now in round 10.
40:34And I'm a huge Casey Concepcion fan who usually will go in about round seven.
40:39And I'm seeing how good in the off season things have gone many camps for Denzel Boston.
40:44And then you're sitting there. Well, between price point, a three round difference versus what you're paying for Boston and Concepcion.
40:51I'm moving them up closer so that you're going to get more.
40:55So I will reach around up for Denzel Boston.
40:58I'll overpay in the trade. I'm clicking a ton in best ball.
41:01I think it's like round 14. Maybe it's gone up to round 13.
41:06I've just clicked a shitload and it's very fun to go along with Shador Sanders and or Deshaun Watson.
41:12So my guy, it's actually going to be Denzel Boston.
41:15I'm pushing him back up his six, four frame.
41:18I kind of think it's not going to be a linear path immediately.
41:22I've thought that he could have a little bit of growing pains where it takes maybe into year two, year three, because
41:29it wasn't immediate for somebody like Drake London. It was not immediate last year for Ted Arora McMillan.
41:35But again, I don't want to just make that just a trope.
41:39Right. So based on what's happening right now, you want to be malleable in real time.
41:44What we're getting about Denzel Boston, I'm going to keep banging that price because it's so much lower.
41:50So why not pay up? I think it's kind of the similar thing that I was talking about with with Lemon there
41:57of like, I keep seeing him as somebody who just keeps sliding back in the first round, sometimes early second.
42:03And I'm just going to go like, hey, I could see that the value is already depressed, but I'll overpay to get
42:10back into that spot to grab Denzel Boston because there's no reason that he should be falling down.
42:16But for whatever reason, he is kind of like I see sometimes with Lemon.
42:20So I'm right there with you on the Boston.
42:23So let's wrap up with like a middle to lower tier veteran that you like, that you're kind of willing to overpay for.
42:31Jeremiah. Hey, ready for this shit. Jalen Waddell in our master ranks.
42:35It's 83. All right, Casey, you have him 80.
42:37Shev has him 89. I have him. Jalen Waddell 53.
42:4153. That is just one of the biggest differences, biggest changes.
42:44Jalen Waddell. Absolutely. I see him moving way up next year.
42:48He is going to be more expensive this time next year in startup drafts.
42:52So that's where the principle you reach another round or two for Waddell.
42:56And look, real NFL, the Denver Broncos paid. You know, this isn't like, hey, I'm going to send my 27 one and 27 third.
43:04Broncos took their actual real life first and third round pick.
43:08I know there was a fourth round pick swap and said, hey, we're going all in on Jalen Waddell.
43:14They absolutely believe in him. They're talking about how fast he is at real game speed, a speedster, something that they need.
43:21And this may be something where it's funny enough.
43:24There's two league mates who's going to overpay and make sure they splash and get all these players that we're talking about.
43:31Right, Casey? But the Bills are the ones who like held off.
43:35And then right now the Broncos are appearing like that team who's a little bit more aggressive in your league.
43:41And they're playing to win. And they're getting Jalen Waddell.
43:44And then sure enough, they meet in the playoffs last year.
43:48Doesn't work out for the Bills. Broncos move on.
43:51Well, the Broncos get stronger with their Jalen Waddell.
43:54And of course, the Bills are going to make their bet with DJ Moore.
43:58But all that goes back to seeing it. Unless you see a bearish season, bad season for Jalen Waddell.
44:04If it's going to be bullish, it's only going to go up for Jalen Waddell from here.
44:10Because what we have not had, shy of his rookie season, was just being that feature guy.
44:15Because Tyreek Hill has been the Tyreek Hill show.
44:18So, yeah, Jalen Waddell for me versus the consensus ranks, the master dashboard, what other people are clicking, what you and Shev have ranked.
44:26I'm way ahead. Yeah. I think the only thing I'd push back on is what he'll be like at 28.
44:32I think people will be more willing to trade for him next year.
44:36I don't know how much the value of it will go up.
44:40But the willingness and the market of him being around, at least staying the same next year, would be a huge win for his value.
44:48Actually, I think it will go up a little because I do think he's going to perform it.
44:54And there's a good thing that Shev is not on the show because he would never allow this.
45:00Jalen Waddell. Correct. There would be... Bro, Jalen Waddell.
45:02Yeah, there would be beeping and glitching. And the screen might be like 700.
45:07Remember back in the day when TV would just go away?
45:11It would just be like a rainbow screen and be like...
45:14We're done for the night. Yeah, yeah. We'll see you at about 6 a.m.
45:19when we pick back up. But right now, Jalen Waddell will go in round 7 in these super flex formats.
45:25Yeah. Why wouldn't he go... Look, this is just players who will just ascend in value.
45:30Why can't he go round 5 next year? Jump two rounds.
45:34Yeah. It isn't out of the realm. No, no.
45:37Not at all. I'll give Shev a shout out here.
45:40I know he's been a big QJ guy. I know he's got some knowledge he wants to drop on QJ.
45:46So I'll put words in his mouth and say that would be his veteran that he would take above consensus right now coming at the 11th round.
45:55You know, we've recently done shows. I've talked about Jaden Higgins and Isaiah Likely.
45:59They've been guys that I've been reaching above consensus in drafts that I really, really like.
46:04But, you know, I'm going to stick with another tight end here.
46:08And I'm going to go Gunner Helm that you were talking earlier of somebody who I want to be a little early on and don't mind buying.
46:17Now, the price tag is completely different, right? These overpays, they work in tiers, right?
46:22If you're buying Caleb Williams, the overpay has got to be a bigger overpay.
46:26The overpay for Gunner Helm is not that much, right?
46:29You might have to two-thirds instead of one or something.
46:33Or a three and a fourth or a third and another three-fourth swap or something, right?
46:38So, right now, he's at 13-12 and RADP, 14-01-ish.
46:41But, like, we're in the middle. I've just done two mocks here.
46:45And, like, he's been available 15th, 16th round, right?
46:47In both of those. So, he's somebody who's very cheap.
46:51And, really, this comes down to I liked the player coming out.
46:55I thought he was a little disrespected. Had a bad 40 or whatever.
46:59But I just think there's a lot of opportunity in Tennessee right now.
47:03For him. And it's just that I feel like it's a really good gamble to take.
47:08The player, I think, is solid. And the opportunity, I think, could be really fun and really good.
47:14If Cam Newton and this offense just take a little bit of a step forward, there's really nobody in his way.
47:20This is Bellinger. But, you know, we've seen Dayball have some success with the tight end a little bit here and there.
47:28I thought Theo Johnson was going to be somebody who would emerge after this year, but likely has now taken his place.
47:35And I'm all in on him. So, I'm going Gunnar Helm.
47:38Somebody like a later round target there to just kind of stamp and just overpay.
47:43Grab him now. He's super cheap. Hard to grab him when you got him in a lot of places.
47:49But... Oh, sick brag. Sick brag. Wipe me down.
47:52Hey, one last thing on that. If you had Titans players, I know namely Calvin Ridley was vocal about it.
47:58Talking about coaches not knowing rules and procedures. Doesn't it stand for games?
48:03Doesn't it stand to reason that maybe some of their training practices and actual practices, film study, any kind of tutelage could be a little bit off?
48:11So, then you're affording that to all these players who were just not in the best position.
48:17And who took the brunt of it? It's Cam Ward.
48:20But downflow of that, if there's just a better work environment, a better pipeline to success.
48:25Right. Seems like they're there. That's kind of reason.
48:28Yeah. It's right there for coming out. Yeah. And on the way out, I just was scrolling down.
48:34Like, I got to throw Mac Jones in there because he came in.
48:38He was so damn hot. And now it seems like, dude, you can catch him in the 14s at 1409 right now.
48:45Like, you might have to wait a year. Brock could get hurt.
48:49And we know that it was solid last year.
48:52But, like, he's going to go somewhere else and get a spike in value.
48:56Like, right now, it seems like it's so odd that, like, the bottom has just fallen out of Mac Jones again a little bit.
49:04Obviously, it was way down there before. But, like, still the value on him right now in startups, I think you could get him thrown in deals.
49:12Unless somebody has Brock, then it's probably a little harder.
49:16But, like, man, oh, man, is he somebody who you should go out and just overpay a little bit right now?
49:22Because what you're going to get back when he signs a deal somewhere next year, it's not even going to be close.
49:30All right. Put yourselves in the position of an AFC team.
49:33We almost don't want to speak it into existence because you don't want players to get hurt.
49:38But we know this is a game where they do.
49:42AFC team, contender, preseason. It looks brutal for a quarterback.
49:45They get hurt. Maybe they'll be back week 10 if they push it aggressively.
49:49But maybe it's more towards December. You don't want to lose the season.
49:54All of a sudden, picking up the phone in that conversation, which the 49ers with their electrical substation have kept leverage.
50:00That's one thing that they've had is, hey, we've got great leverage.
50:04And Mac Jones even just said something about, hey, my feet are here.
50:08You know, I'm grounded in with the 49ers. But there would be a team picking up, hey, oh, you were trying to squeeze us for that second?
50:17Or maybe it's a second and a third. Some kind of extra, right?
50:21But this whole show, the premise, too. But real life NFL, there could be an overpay out there to get Mac Jones.
50:28And then, of course, to what you just said, to our practice in the show, Mac Jones could increase in value.
50:35Will increase. Overpay. Take it to the bank. Overpay.
50:38All right. We're out of here. We'll see you next week.
50:41Shev will be back. Peace.
