Risers & Fallers - ADP Is Lying To You

Up 1.1 in ADP; best comparable is Christian McCaffrey. Lead back in a committee and primary receiving back; excellent receiver and efficient runner. With Kyler Murray as an upgrade, the offensive environment takes a huge step forward. Projects as a weekly RB2 with flex floor. Concerns include age potential cliff and soft tissue injury history, but solid value at ADP with little concern about productivity when healthy.

Derek Carr prefers Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville over Brian Thomas Jr., stating he's taking Lawrence and not drafting anybody else in managed leagues. Carr wants the facilitator (Lawrence) rather than betting on multiple receivers in a crowded Jacksonville offense; when choosing between BTJ and Christian Watson, he takes Watson.

Brock Bowers is down 0.4 spots and remains tight end one, but the speaker questions the price tag. While Bowers is the offensive centerpiece with massive target share and weekly tight end over-one upside, the speaker doesn't see turning profit with him unless he's averaging close to 18 points per game. There are other guys going in the second round who can still put up 300-point seasons at multiple positions. Additionally, Clint Kubiak's arrival may not spell great tight end production; Kirk Cousins was historically not a great tight end producer, and rookie quarterbacks like Fernando Mendoza aren't great for tight ends either. Bowers has probably the highest floor of anybody in fantasy, but there's not a lot of room for profit at his ADP.

Up half a draft spot with best comparable Alec Pierce. The streets are saying he's 'the biggest value on the board at wide receiver' and Derek Carr finds it hard to argue against that. Packers' preferred outside receiver and primary deep threat locked into two-wide-receiver sets; elite size-speed combo and metrics darling with outstanding yards per route run and incredible fantasy efficiency. Fits Jordan Love's aggressive style perfectly. Target tree consolidated with Wicks gone, Bo Melton playing cornerback, and Jaden Reed's role uncertain, which concentrates opportunity. Projects weekly WR1 upside and weekly WR1.5 floor. Durability concerns exist but Carr believes they won't create volatility with Love and LaFleur. Main draft decision is choosing between Watson and Tucker Kraft.

Denzel Boston is a prototypical X wide receiver turning heads in camp with an ADP of wide receiver 63, making him primo value. He's expected to be available on waivers at some point, so there's no need to invest early if you're looking for late-round tight end or quarterback help.

Tight end 7 in current ADP; undervalued because the Browns offense is perceived as 'uninvestable' by the market. Fannin is the receiving tight end expanding his role with Todd Monken and projects as a 'future star.' High target share potential given rookie receiver competition (Concepcion, Boston). Should be available in the seventh or eighth round for strong return on investment.

Down 0.9 in ADP; best comparable is Damian Harris. Described as 'another big faller' with market consensus that Rashad White will 'eat his lunch.' Good, explosive runner but 'a nothing in the passing game.' Expected backfield split mirrors Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker, with Krosky-Merritt in the Kenneth Walker role (early-down back) and White in the Zach Charbonnet role (receiving back). Limited upside unless he gets the lion's share of the backfield.

Jadarian Price was drafted to be a situational running back in Seattle, just as he was at Notre Dame, except he doesn't have Jeremiah Love in front of him stealing hype this time. His ADP is RB 26, which is palatable for a rookie with first-round capital. However, the speaker is a little bit off-type for this pick and would feel better if his ADP keeps falling. The Seahawks were 29th in EPA per rush last year, behind the Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and barely above the Texans. Charbonnet is expected to miss a lot of time early in the season, which creates opportunity for Price to see the lead role. Price is basically a zero in the passing game and it wasn't a huge part of his utility belt at Notre Dame, which is a real concern given his current limitations.

Derek Carr questions how often Jaden Reed will be on the field in the Packers offense, noting uncertainty about his role in the consolidated target tree with Wicks gone and Christian Watson locked in as the primary outside receiver.

Currently WR24; best comparable is Steve Smith. Derek Carr notes the streets are saying it's a Sean Payton offense and the Dolphins traded a first for him, positioning Waddle as the featured wide receiver and primary yak threat—a big offensive playmaker. Carr finds it hard to argue against the value given the trade capital and Payton's system fit.

The speaker notes that Jordan Mason will probably handle meaningful early-down rushing carries in the Vikings backfield, positioning him as a complementary back to Aaron Jones.

Josh Jacobs is down 0.08 in ADP but the market is too down on him. He's the clear feature back and three-down runner for Green Bay with primary goal line duties. He's been completely missed on ADP every year; he probably should have gone in the first round last year and would have produced at a first-round clip, but now slides into the second round and some leagues in the fourth round, which is crazy. He's projected an insane workload with high-value opportunities locked in. Matt LaFleur will run the ball regardless of who's in the lineup, and if Jacobs plays, he'll give double-digit touchdown upside and high weekly floor.

Down 0.8 in ADP; best comparable is Michael Crabtree. Starting outside receiver in a Pukunuku role with strong real-life value translating to on-field opportunity. Only receiver to score against Derek Stingley last year and 'mossed his ass.' Elite athlete with breakout already happened; projects as top-two in targets while winning in the end zone. Preferred over Marvin Harrison Jr. due to Harrison's uncertainty and prior injury history (concussions, appendicitis).

Described as the 'biggest riser' and a 'smash' pick. Starting outside receiver and primary vertical threat; elite athlete with outstanding size and speed. Justin Herbert already showed he knows how to take advantage of him. The speaker believes if the Mike McDaniel scheme can do more heavy lifting, it's a 'perfect match made in heaven.' Projects weekly wide receiver one upside on a smash, though route running still needs developing and he has a lower weekly floor than Ladd.

Shaheed is being weaponized more like he was used in New Orleans under Clint Kubiak, who just arrived in Las Vegas. He's an explosive player with an expanded route tree positioned to benefit if JSN comes back down to earth. Before his season-ending meniscus tear, Shaheed averaged 13 points per game over 73 yards in four of five games with Derek Carr, hovering around top 20 in advanced metrics with 17.5 yards per reception; he dropped to 11 yards per reception last year but is expected to regain efficiency with the new scheme. His ADP is wide receiver 58 in the 12th round, making him a fantastic flyer and strong value at that price point.

Trevion Henderson is RB 21 and falling 0.4 in ADP with a Reggie Bush comparable. The speaker dislikes drafting him in the fourth round due to contingent upside tied to Ramondre Stevenson's role. Last year Henderson was a league winner when he played but a 'nothing burger in the playoffs' when sharing time, making him a risky fourth-round investment.

Derek Carr is taking Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville and not drafting other Jacksonville receivers in managed leagues, preferring the quarterback to the wide receivers in that offense. Describes Lawrence as 'the facilitator' and 'the big dog on a big dog offense,' making him the preferred Jacksonville stack target over receivers like Brian Thomas Jr.

Dominates targets in the Cardinals offense but not viewed as a concern for Michael Wilson's upside; neither player is expected to lead the team in targets. Wilson can be top-two in targets and win in the end zone alongside McBride's target volume.