Content Kings - Trey McBride immunity idol

AJ Brown is acquired at the one-two turn in best-ball while available in the fifth round in dynasty, representing classic best-ball dynasty arbitrage; Alex Dunlap drafted Brown as the foundation of a post-apex veteran team designed to win.

Aaron Rodgers is part of Alex Dunlap's post-apex veteran core in a startup dynasty best-ball team; Rodgers represents the type of aging, unsexy quarterback that Dunlap now targets as part of his winning team construction philosophy.

AJ Barker is positioned as a value in the Seahawks' consolidated target distribution; Alex Dunlap considers Barker a value pick alongside JSN and Rashid Shaheed in Seattle's offense.

Alfred Morris averaged 5.0 yards per carry with RG3 due to the rushing quarterback's ability to freeze linebackers and create running lanes. This production boost from a rushing quarterback is called the Alfred Morris corollary and demonstrates how quarterback rushing ability indirectly elevates running back efficiency.

Bucky Irving is presented as a "falling knife" alternative to Trey McBride at the 2–3 turn. His availability at a later ADP allows drafters to avoid the McBride grenade and instead target Irving, who offers better value and roster construction upside than reaching for McBride in round 2.

Cade Otton will lose target share to Kenneth Gainwell, the satellite back brought in by the Buccaneers to expand their passing game; Gainwell's targets will come directly from Otton and Rachaad White.

The cold take that Carson Beck is better than Jacoby Brissett is dismissed as "not true at all." This suggests the quarterback situation in Arizona is not a major differentiator, and neither QB is expected to significantly elevate the passing game or target distribution.

Chris Godwin consolidates target share in the Buccaneers' pass-first offense; Alex Dunlap is bullish on Godwin despite limited time remaining on the roster, expecting target consolidation around Godwin and Egbuka as the primary receivers.

Christian McCaffrey is a must-target player in the 49ers' consolidated, high-efficiency offense; the offense is so consolidated around McCaffrey that Alex Dunlap will draft him but not other receivers like Ricky Pearsall.

Colston Loveland is presented as a value alternative to Trey McBride, going two to three rounds later than McBride. His later ADP allows drafters to avoid the opportunity cost of the McBride pick at the 2nd-round turn and instead target higher-impact players like D'Andre Swift or Bucky Irving at the 2–3 turn.

D'Andre Swift is cited as a higher-impact 2–3 turn target compared to Trey McBride. By avoiding the McBride grenade at picks 21–22, drafters can instead allocate that pick to Swift, improving overall roster construction.

David Montgomery is the most obvious example of organizational focus in the Texans' run-first offense; Alex Dunlap is bullish on Montgomery despite his lack of sex appeal, noting he can fall to the fifth round in some drafts and represents a core unsexy player in his winning basket of post-apex veterans.

Drake Maye belongs in the elite rushing quarterback tier alongside Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes based on EPA metrics and on-field performance. The rushing quarterback archetype—where the threat of the run extends drives and creates scoring opportunities—is the easiest top-five quarterback list to construct once players are established in the league.

Drake Maye is mentioned as an example of a player who could be inserted into rankings in place of Lamar Jackson if one chooses to drop Jackson 2-4 spots due to age and reduced rushing, though the speaker does not endorse this approach.

George Kittle is a must-target player in the 49ers' consolidated, high-efficiency offense; the offense is so consolidated around Kittle and McCaffrey that Alex Dunlap will draft both but not other receivers.

JK Dobbins is part of Alex Dunlap's basket of unsexy post-apex players that he targets in drafts; despite not being sexy, Dobbins represents the type of value-oriented, non-aspirational player that Dunlap credits with winning fantasy leagues, contrasting with his earlier strategy of drafting only high-upside players.

Jacoby Brissett's brief stint as Cardinals starter produced elite receiver output, particularly for Michael Wilson (18–19 PPR per game). This suggests Brissett is a more efficient passer for the Cardinals' receivers than Kyler Murray, though organizational commitment to other quarterbacks limits his role.

Jalen Hurts is part of the Eagles offense, which Alex Dunlap classifies as a sub-25 implied team total offense where he can make a good argument for targeting one aspect over another, rather than drafting all players.

Jaden Daniels remains a top-five EPA quarterback candidate based on metrics and on-field tape. The rushing quarterback archetype is the easiest to evaluate once established, and Daniels fits the profile of elite EPA producers alongside Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes.

Jeremiah Love is expected to receive significant volume in the Cardinals' running game, which is shifting toward more ground-game focus. The offense is moving away from pass-heavy schemes, creating opportunity for Love as the featured back.

Arizona's offensive shift includes increased focus on the running game with Jeremiah Love, signaling a move away from pass-heavy volume. This is cited as a headwind for pass catchers like McBride and Wilson, but Love's elevated role suggests he is a beneficiary of the team's strategic pivot.

Josh Allen is a top-five EPA quarterback based on the rushing quarterback archetype. The elite EPA list for established quarterbacks is straightforward: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jaden Daniels, and Patrick Mahomes.

Kenneth Gainwell is a satellite back brought in by the Buccaneers to command extra target share in their pass-first offense; Gainwell will cannibalize targets from Rob Gronkowski, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White, not from Jalen Egbuka.

NFL players poll ranked Lamar Jackson 69th overall, down from 2nd the prior year, despite his status as a perennial top-five EPA quarterback. The collapse reflects recency bias from his down rushing year (340 rushing yards vs. typical 800–850 range), coach worship following John Harbaugh's departure, and a desire for provocative content rather than sound evaluation. Metrics and on-field performance clearly support top-five status.

Lamar Jackson's aggregate ranking of 69 overall is viewed as artificially depressed due to recency bias and forgetfulness among rankers; despite being older and likely to run less, his continuity with Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Derek Henry, plus an upgraded offensive coordinator, should support a drop of only 2-4 spots from his prior ranking, not the current market consensus.

Mark Andrews is cited as part of Lamar Jackson's continuity in the Ravens offense, maintaining the core of the offense alongside Zay Flowers and Derek Henry.

Marvin Harrison Jr. remains the Cardinals' alpha receiver with organizational commitment, but faces headwinds from increased running game focus (Jeremiah Love), potential quarterback uncertainty (Carson Beck), and Michael Wilson's demonstrated elite production when given volume. The offense is expected to be lower-volume in the passing game overall.

The cold take that Marvin Harrison Jr. is the "clear alpha" is dismissed as not true at all. His return to Arizona is cited as one of the headwinds affecting the team's passing volume and target distribution, but no specific projection or role change is detailed beyond his presence reducing overall passing volume.

Matthew Stafford is part of Alex Dunlap's post-apex veteran core in a startup dynasty best-ball team; Stafford represents the type of unsexy, aging quarterback that Dunlap now targets after shifting away from pure upside-focused drafting.

Michael Wilson is undervalued in fantasy despite strong production splits. When Jacoby Brissett started, Wilson averaged 18–19 PPR points per game, tripling his fantasy output compared to periods with Kyler Murray. Even after Marvin Harrison Jr. returned, Wilson's production remained elite, suggesting organizational commitment to both receivers. Fantasy analysts unfairly dismiss Wilson as worthless, while NFL scouts view him as a solid player. The Cardinals' focus on the running game with Jeremiah Love and potential quarterback uncertainty (Carson Beck) create headwinds, but Wilson's demonstrated production warrants consideration.

The consensus take that Michael Wilson is "worthless" is dismissed as a cold take, but Alex Dunlap argues the real issue is that Wilson only produced for half a season last year, making him vulnerable to a target squeeze as McBride remains the primary recipient. Despite the breakout, Wilson's one-season sample and the team's shift toward the running game with Jeremiah Love create downside risk that justifies avoiding him at any ADP.

Mike Evans consolidates target share in the Buccaneers' pass-first offense; Alex Dunlap drafted Evans in a startup dynasty best-ball arbitrage league, pairing him with Chris Godwin as part of a post-apex veteran core designed to win.

Alex Dunlap warns against being overweight on Nico Collins given the Texans' acquisition of David Montgomery, which signals organizational commitment to the running game and contradicts bullish receiver positioning; being out ahead on Collins goes against the team's public offseason messaging.

Patrick Mahomes exemplifies the rushing quarterback archetype that produces elite EPA. Though not known primarily as a runner, Mahomes' ability to extend plays outside the pocket—sometimes throwing, sometimes running—creates first downs and scoring opportunities. The threat of the run is nearly as important as the run itself, a principle called the Alfred Morris corollary.

Rachaad White will lose target share to Kenneth Gainwell, the satellite back brought in by the Buccaneers; Gainwell's targets will cannibalize from White and Cade Otton as the team shifts to a pass-first identity.

Rashid Shaheed is a buy based on four key dynamics: positive buzz around route tree expansion, historical efficiency as a receiver, consolidated target distribution in Seattle's offense with limited route-running competition, and organizational commitment evidenced by significant contract investment; Alex Dunlap notes Shaheed has received positive buzz but hasn't been fully accounted for in his cheat sheet.

Ricky Pearsall is the one San Francisco receiver that Alex Dunlap will not draft in the 49ers' consolidated, high-efficiency offense; Pearsall is excluded from Dunlap's target list due to the team's focus on McCaffrey and Kittle.

Trey McBride is immune to Cardinals offensive headwinds (lower passing volume, Jeremiah Love focus, quarterback uncertainty with Carson Beck) because of his multi-year track record of production and organizational commitment. Despite all these headwinds, McBride should be drafted as the tight end to target.

Despite Arizona's systemic headwinds—lower passing volume, increased running game focus with Jeremiah Love, Michael Wilson's breakout, and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s return—McBride is being drafted as the tight end to target. However, Alex Dunlap argues this is a "grenade" pick at the 2nd-round turn (picks 21–22), where opportunity cost is "giant." McBride could finish outside the top five tight ends in this offense, making him a bust risk at his ADP despite his multi-season track record of production.

Alex Dunlap has minimal exposure to Trey McBride in his draft strategy, positioning him as significantly less valuable than Zay Flowers; recommends quadruple exposure to Zay Flowers relative to McBride, indicating McBride is not a priority target.

Tyler Warren is positioned as a superior alternative to Trey McBride at tight end. He is available in the sixth round of home leagues and is described as "about to get peppered," suggesting high target volume upside. His late-round availability makes him a better value than McBride at the 2nd-round turn, avoiding the opportunity cost of reaching for McBride.

Alex Dunlap highlights Xavier Worthy as a breakout candidate worth promoting, particularly leveraging the Texas player connection to reach college football audiences transitioning to fantasy.

Zay Flowers is a strong target in 2025 given Ravens offensive improvements. The Ravens ranked second-to-last in pass rate over expectation (PROE) last year and third-worst in seconds per play (30.6 vs. 27.1 under Kellen Moore). New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, a Sean Payton understudy hired by Ben Johnson, is expected to increase tempo and pace, benefiting Flowers' volume and efficiency. This represents a significant offensive upgrade.

Zay Flowers is positioned as a contrasting success story to Trey McBride's grenade status. While McBride is a bust risk despite his track record, Flowers is framed as a winner deserving of recognition, suggesting he is a preferred target at his ADP or a breakout candidate relative to expectations.

After comprehensive analysis of Zay Flowers' role in the Ravens offense, Alex Dunlap concludes that consuming all available information positions fantasy players to be ahead on Zay Flowers for the rest of the offseason, indicating strong conviction in his fantasy outlook.

Alex Dunlap projects Zay Flowers at 15.6 PPR points in version 2.2 of his cheat sheet, nearly double the 8.25% exposure a player would normally receive in a 12-team league; recommends quadruple exposure to Zay Flowers relative to Trey McBride, positioning him as a standout value target for the summer.