The Dominator - ADP Bargains with Jim Coventry
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 7, 2026
Published
Tue, July 7, 2026
13
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Alvin KamaraBrian Thomas Jr.Chase BrownCourtland SuttonDavid MontgomeryJaylen WaddleJustin JeffersonOmarion HamptonOscar DelpParker WashingtonTerry McLaurinTravis EtienneWoody Marks
Player analysis
Player insights
Alvin Kamara
NegativeRole21:00
Dan Williamson describes Alvin Kamara as washed, indicating he is no longer a threat to Travis Etienne's volume in New Orleans. Kamara is Etienne's main competition for carries, but his decline makes Etienne the clear lead back.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveRole39:18
Jim Coventry notes that Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence have been working on their chemistry, but Thomas is not a stylistic fit with Lawrence. Lawrence is very good in the middle of the field but not good to the perimeter, where Thomas operates. This is why Parker Washington, who excels in Lawrence's bread-and-butter zone, is the preferred target.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue8:43
Dan Williamson highlights Chase Brown as a running back nine ADP bargain. Brown's yards per rush, explosive play rate, and success rate all increase on plays under center versus shotgun, and Cincinnati wants to run more under center (they ranked 29th in under-center usage last year). Eric All's return as a fullback/tight end blocker will support the run game. Brown's elite receiving floor (88 targets in 2024, including a three-touchdown receiving game) provides PPR value even if Samaj P. Ryan continues to take 40% of snaps. Jim Coventry emphasizes Brown gets free yards due to defenses' need to respect Burrow and Higgins, forcing them to play back.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeRole32:00
Jim Coventry notes that Cortland Sutton remains on the outside and will command some attention in Denver, but the Broncos' acquisition of Jalen Waddle signals they want to feature a catch-and-run receiver in the middle of the field. Sutton is good at what he does, but what he does is not necessarily the best fit for Sean Payton's offense. Payton was even considering trading Sutton a couple years ago, indicating he was not the best fit.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue4:03
Jim Coventry identifies Montgomery as an ADP bargain for Houston despite Woody Marks being slated as the receiving back. Coventry argues Montgomery's pass-blocking and receiving ability make him the primary option, especially in a scheme that will employ heavy personnel (12 personnel with multiple tight ends). Houston's elite defense and low-scoring games will create leads in the second half, positioning Montgomery for high-volume rushing opportunities. The Texans upgraded their offensive line (first-round pick Kalen Rutledge at center, Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith) and will load the box with blockers. Montgomery's broken tackle rate and narrow-jitter contact remained strong in 2024 despite Detroit's poor interior line; Coventry projects double-digit touchdowns as a floor outcome.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue33:24
Jim Coventry calls Jalen Waddle at WR23 ADP a steal. Injury concerns are overblown; he's barely missed any time in his career, only a couple games. In Miami, he was getting creamed on catch-and-run concepts because Tua Tagovailoa has a weak arm and defenses compressed everything in. In Denver, he'll be in a healthy situation: elite offensive line, strong run game (Dobbins/Jonah Coleman), and Cortland Sutton commanding attention on the outside. Bo Nix can throw short and intermediate. Broncos sent first, third, and fourth-round picks to bring Waddle in for the role tried with Troy Franklin—nine targets per game with designed catch-and-run opportunities. Franklin failed the experiment with poor YAC (19, 27, 40, 80, 80 yards in five games), but Waddle is the perfect player for that role. Defenses cannot compress the field against Denver the way they did against Miami, so Waddle won't take the same beating. Waddle should get WR15 numbers at WR23 ADP.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeValue27:00
Jim Coventry calls Justin Jefferson an undervalued receiver at end of first/early second round, saying the fantasy football community has unjustly punished him. Last year's poor performance (1,000 yards, 2 TDs) was not his fault; J.J. McCarthy was the problem, not Jefferson. Kyler Murray is at least as good as Sam Darnold, who had 35 TDs and 4,300 yards in this offense two years ago. Jefferson is an established 1,600-yard receiver (his four-year average before last season). Kevin O'Connell schemes him open within half a second regardless of coverage. Jefferson's floor is WR5, ceiling could easily be WR1. Durability is not a concern—he has missed time only once in his career (seven games two years ago to hamstring) and otherwise has never missed a game.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveProjection12:42
Jim Coventry is extremely aggressive on O'Marion Hampton, ranking him running back eight in ADP but projecting him to finish as running back three. Hampton is a natural outside-zone runner who fits perfectly with Mike McDaniel's system. McDaniel struggled the past two years because Tua Tagovailoa's weak arm forced defenses to pack the middle, neutering the offense. With Justin Herbert's arm talent, defenses cannot sleep, and Hampton will thrive. Miami upgraded the offensive line (Rayshon Slater and Joe Walt returning, interior line addressed) and will employ heavy personnel (22 personnel with two running backs and two tight ends, plus three-tight-end looks with Alec Ingle, Charlie Kohler, and Njoku). Hampton broke his ankle but still averaged 15.9 PPR points per game upon return.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveBreakout23:03
Saints drafted Oscar Delp as a wide tight end who is fast and a good blocker. Adding him creates uncertainty for defenses because they won't know what's coming out of 12 personnel; sometimes teams in 12 personnel signal run, but Saints should be able to hide whether they're running or passing. Fun pick with upside.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveSleeper39:18
Jim Coventry identifies Parker Washington at WR35 ADP as a sleeper. He excels in the areas where Trevor Lawrence already likes to throw the ball—the bread and butter zone for Lawrence. From week 9 onwards, Washington averaged 15 PPR points per week over a nine-game sample (half a season). In the playoffs versus Buffalo, he had 7 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Washington is a third-year breakout; offensive coordinator Liam Cohen needed half a season to figure out his quarterback. Brian Thomas Jr. is not a stylistic fit with Lawrence, who is very good in the middle of the field but not good to the perimeter. When Cohen realized what Lawrence could and couldn't do, he changed the offense to fit Lawrence halfway through the season, which is why Parker Washington exploded. Jacoby Myers was brought in midseason and hasn't had a training camp until this year, but Washington will be the guy because of the offensive fit. Getting a discount because he was a slot receiver not considered a fantasy crush before his breakout. Jaguars are pumping him up, and it's a contract year for him.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue30:30
Jim Coventry rates Terry McLaurin at WR25 ADP as a value play. When Jaden Daniels and McLaurin were both healthy in 2024, McLaurin was WR7 with 15-plus PPR points in 13 of 17 weeks. Even when Daniels was out in late 2024, McLaurin averaged 63 yards per game with backup quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota), which is over 1,000-yard pace. New offensive coordinator David Blau has stated he wants to feature McLaurin and move him around the formation, which Cliff Kingsbury did not do. Both players coming into 2025 totally healthy. That consistency and high value at WR25 is a steal.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveValue20:00
Dan Williamson highlights Travis Etienne as running back 18 ADP bargain. New Orleans paid Etienne $12 million per year, placing him in the top 10 average annual value at running back, signaling team commitment. Barring injury, Etienne has never failed to reach 200 PPR points and finished RB3 in 2023 and RB10 in 2024. His 2024 season was plagued by nagging injuries and should be discounted. Etienne moves to a Saints team under Kellen Moore (offensive guru and head coach) that wants to play fast. Moore knows how to design a run game. Etienne's main competition is a washed Alvin Kamara and replacement-level running backs. Jim Coventry emphasizes volume is king and expects Etienne to get 65–70% of running back work; at RB2 prices, he could easily end as an RB1.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeRole4:48
Jim Coventry notes that Woody Marks is slated to be Houston's receiving back but expresses skepticism about his fit. Despite being a converted college receiver, Marks cannot block effectively and lacks rushing ability compared to Montgomery. Coventry expects Marks to spell Montgomery occasionally and potentially appear on third downs when the offense wants to pass, but Montgomery will remain the primary option. Dan Williamson agrees, noting Marks is not in the realm of Montgomery as a rusher.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:50Welcome to The Dominator! I'm your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson, the overhyped sweeper.
0:54You can find me on x at overhyped sweeper.
0:57Just drop that final e from sweeper. And joining me today is one of my favorite guests from the old goat district.
1:04Ah, man, every time I hear him talk, I feel like I'm ready to run through a brick wall.
1:10He's a master of the fantasy game and he is a prime purveyor of positivity.
1:15Jim Coventry is on the show today, ready to talk ADP bargains.
1:18And that means it's time for us to dominate.
1:21All right, welcome, Jim. It's great to finally get a chance to talk with you again.
1:26It's really been too long. And so I'm wondering what in the world is new with Jim Coventry and where can we find your stuff?
1:34Man, I tell you what, it is just a crazy time because of AI.
1:38I can edit my own videos. Nobody wants to see my face.
1:42But it used to be like we had video editors and they get through like one or two a day with multiple people working.
1:50Now, we can do a couple of videos a day and it's crazy the amount of volume we can put out with a little extra help.
1:58Everything's over on the X at Jim Coventry NFL.
2:00A couple threads a day, stat cards every day, videos every day.
2:04And of course, we're doing it all for RotoWire.
2:07And man, we're trying to build something good at RotoWire.
2:10And like I always say, articles are behind the panel.
2:13My rankings are there. You want 15% off? Use the code Jim at RotoWire.
2:18We're all set. Awesome. That's great. And then you're also on Sirius XM too, right?
2:22Wow. All the madness. I forgot what I just did an hour ago.
2:26Yeah. So this summer, July and August, I'll be off Tuesday and Wednesday.
2:30But every other day, Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Channel 87, 2 to 4 Eastern.
2:35We're going to go blast this summer, Dan. Oh, man.
2:38It's fantastic. I just love listening to you anytime you're on.
2:42I'm in the car. Flip it over. And, you know, it's just great football content.
2:46So love what you're doing. And you guys over at RotoWire have definitely had some big news lately, though, haven't you?
2:53Yeah. We got some great ones, man. Theo Grimminger, the OG.
2:56Remember him from over here back in a short, wild day ago.
3:00And, yeah, having Theo along. Oh, my gosh. What a winner right there.
3:04And then Ian Harditz. I know Ian casually. But, man, I know Ian just knows a ton.
3:09And he was at Fantasy Life. So, yeah, RotoWire making some big moves.
3:13Wow, we're excited. We are really excited for a big season.
3:17Yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, you are definitely a content king over there.
3:21I mean, just everything that you're pumping out. And then now you've got Theo and Ian, a couple more content kings, jumping in there.
3:29It's going to be, you know, just getting better and better and better.
3:33So excited about what you guys are doing there.
3:36That's fantastic stuff. All right. So we're here for a reason, though.
3:39And all the pleasantries and everything else aside, we should dive into the meat of the show, don't you think, Jim?
3:46That's a great idea. Let's do it. All right.
3:49So we're looking at NFFC ADPs when we go through our players.
3:52We're going to be giving you our favorite bargains.
3:55We'll each have a couple running backs, three wide receivers, and a tight end.
4:00And we're just going to be talking about, you know, we're going to give you the NFFC ADP because I think they have very sharp drafters.
4:08They don't have a tight end premium. So I think it kind of gives you the best of both worlds.
4:14You know, this isn't like your home league where, you know, you can get this player five rounds later than you can
4:21get them, you know, in any sort of a sharp league.
4:24This is going to be sharp league ADP, and you don't have to deal with that screwy tight end premium that kind
4:31of messes up values, no super flex, anything like that.
4:34You know, so it's just it's good straight ADP value.
4:37I love using the NFFC ADP. And Jim, why don't you lead us off with your first ADP bargain?
4:43Yeah, definitely. David Montgomery, and for a lot of people, this sounds like low-hanging fruit.
4:48And I didn't like the news I read this weekend where, like, Woody Marks is going to be the receiving back.
4:54I still don't know how that pans out. Montgomery is a very good pass protector and a very good receiver.
5:01And Woody Marks last year, and I know he was a converted college receiver, but that dude can't block at all.
5:07And CJ Stroud, he got some concussion issues last year.
5:10So we'll see how long that lasts, but the beauty of Montgomery is this.
5:15You could see what Houston wants to do. They are an elite defensive team.
5:19They are going to have a good share of low-scoring games.
5:22They know their quarterback has some issues. They're going to want to run the ball and play defense, and they're going to
5:29have leads in the second half of games with some frequency.
5:33Now, you'll say offensive line, and I will say, yes, I get it.
5:37I will give the Houston Texans some credit. Last year, Ariante Urshu was a first-round pick.
5:42Did okay second year. We're hoping for a bump.
5:45But then they had Dress Wright tackle, Braden Smith, free agent.
5:48He's a very good tackle. They spend a first-round pick on Kalen Rutledge at center.
5:53They bring in Wyatt Teller, a little on the old side.
5:56But the line could be functional. And if the line is functional, and remember, and I don't want you to forget this,
6:03Dan, this is a really important part. The league is changing.
6:06We're going to be seeing more tight ends on the field.
6:10The numbers are going up last year. The teams that were running one tight end were running two.
6:15You had the Rams running three. They draft Marlon Klein, blocker, high traffic.
6:19I believe second round, maybe third. And they got Schultz.
6:22They brought in Foster Moreau, which tells you they want to get some blocking.
6:27So this team, when they play with those leads, they're going to be loading up the personnel.
6:32And Monty can still run. Monty had an issue in Detroit last year.
6:36The interior line was so bad, he couldn't get going.
6:39But if you're going to put seven men out blocking, he's got a real shot to have a massive volume ceiling, Dan.
6:46So I think his floor is going to be great.
6:49Definitely double-digit touchdowns are firmly in the good range of outcomes.
6:53I'm excited for Monty. Yeah, I am too. I think that's a great call.
6:57One of the things I like about him is just the fact that he is such a good receiver too.
7:03And I do think that they're probably going to be using him a good amount of time as a receiver when they
7:10don't want to give a tell to the defense about what's going on.
7:14Because, you know, Woody Marks, in addition to not being a very good pass blocker, he's also not the greatest rusher in the world.
7:22Certainly not in the realm of David Montgomery. And, you know, Houston's in the business of trying to win some games here.
7:28So they're going to be using their bell cow, I think.
7:32And I see, you know, I do see Woody Marks spelling him from time to time.
7:37I do see Woody Marks maybe being in there on those third downs where they know for sure they're going to pass
7:44and they're going to have the running back out in a pattern.
7:47But if they decide they don't want to have a running back out in a pattern, maybe they want him to chip
7:54and then go out or just stay into block.
7:57It's going to be Monty. So, you know, I think there's going to be plenty of volume there.
8:03Really love what this offense is starting to look like.
8:06And you're dead on with the 12 personnel too.
8:09That, I think, is going to be a big part of what Houston does.
8:13So, fun, fun pick. Anything else on Monty before we move on?
8:17No, I just, again, say he has not declined.
8:19His broken tackle rate and narrow-jitter contact were good enough last year.
8:23It's just that that interior line was so bad.
8:26And I told people preseason it was going to be a specific Monty issue.
8:30And it was, this isn't as bad. They've addressed the line.
8:34I just want everybody to be comforted knowing this is not a Swiss cheese line.
8:38Yep, yep, definitely. All right. Well, I'm going to bring out my first running back.
8:43And that is Chase Brown, who is going at running back number nine.
8:47I just love the ADP here. He started off pretty bad last year.
8:51But once he got going, he really got things on the right path.
8:55And one of the things I really like that's kind of sneaky is that Eric All is slated to return.
9:01And he's a hammer in the run game. He's a guy who can go out there and be a fullback.
9:08He can go out there and steal the edge as a tight end.
9:12And another thing I really like is the offense wants to go under center more, which really feeds right into Chase Brown's strengths.
9:19His yards per rush, his explosive play rate, his success rate, all increase on plays under center versus the shotgun.
9:25So it's an elite offense. And there's plenty of scoring opportunities.
9:29If they can get under center more often, which they say they want to try to do.
9:34I mean, I know. I know. Every team is always talking about all the things they want to do.
9:40And then we'll find out if they were telling the truth or not come September.
9:44But if they can do a little bit more under center, it's only going to help them.
9:50So, and he was plenty good even without very much under center at all.
9:54They were under center like 29th out of 32 teams in the NFL.
9:58So, not very much at all. So, any kind of increase there would help.
10:02And if the defense and run game are any better at all, and then we do think they might have at least a somewhat better defense.
10:11And if the run game, you know, with being under center and with Eric All, those are better.
10:16We could see Chase Brown as a closing hammer a lot more often.
10:20That's kind of the one role he really hasn't been able to be in.
10:25He's, you know, he has picked up some extra receptions, which we like to see.
10:29But, you know, sometimes when you get that other opposing defense tired and you're just hammering away at them, you know, for
10:36four yards, five yards, four yards, five yards, ten yards, fifteen yards, you know, it's just perfect situation for a running back.
10:43What do you think? You know, and I love Chase Brown.
10:46What's crazy, Dan, is if you remember 2024, he like wasn't much in the mix until like second half of the season, and he gets 229 carries.
10:55But he was playing like 90% of the snaps in 2024.
10:58Last year, he's losing 40% of the snaps to Samaj AP Ryan.
11:02I'm like, are you kidding me? I got him on my fantasy team's Chase Brown.
11:07I'm like, get him off the field. And they didn't.
11:10But so Brown only had three more carries last year than he had in that partial 2024.
11:15I know he played 16 games, but again, he wasn't a factor.
11:19But here's the thing. And I said, this is why you draft Chase Brown last year.
11:24And this is why you draft him this year.
11:27Any defense that plays Cincinnati, their first, second, and third choice are stop the big play.
11:31You got Chase, you got Higgins, and you got Burrow.
11:35That defense has to play back. They don't have an option because the minute you start sneaking people down, you can't do that.
11:42Chase and Higgins will torch you. So I've been saying Chase Brown gets free yards on every play because of the way defenses must approach them.
11:50And Joe Burrow, he realizes when the defense really like they drop eight.
11:54Oh, that's easy. I'm checking down to Chase Brown.
11:5788 targets last year for Chase Brown. There was a three touchdown receiving game.
12:01So even if he still loses 40% of the snaps, that bothers me.
12:05I hope P. Ryan's going to decline more. So I hope it's only 20% of the snaps that P.
12:11Ryan's on instead of 40 because that boosts Chase Brown's ceiling even higher.
12:15But the floor is insane. The talent is outrageous.
12:18Loved him coming out of Illinois. But yes, this is a player you want on your fantasy football team, especially in those PPR leagues.
12:25Yep, definitely. All right. Well, you got another running back for us, Jim?
12:29Oh, man, I talk too much. Man, I just went on that long diatribe and here we go again.
12:35Again, this is going to sound to some low-hanging fruit, but I'm going to tell you how aggressive I am on O'Marion Hampton.
12:42He's the running back eight in ADP. I will not draft him where I have him ranked because I don't have to.
12:49But I think he's going to finish the year as the running back three.
12:54The three. That's how crazy Jim Coventry is. It's crazy.
12:57But why? All right. Mike McDaniel's in town. And a lot of people forgot how good Mike McDaniel is.
13:03Mike McDaniel didn't have a good last two years.
13:05Why? Because Tua Tungo-Vailoa had a pop gun for an arm and every defense in the league figured it out.
13:12He can't drive the ball to the perimeter, so defense has moved everybody into the middle more.
13:17All right. Make him beat us there. They realize, oh, yeah, you can throw it about seven years, but it's a lollipop.
13:24So, fine. Have at it. So, we're not going to put everybody in.
13:28Now we're going to pack them down. So, when Tyreek was healthy, Jalen Waddell, there were so many bodies in the close area of the field.
13:36The offense was neuter. Yet, Devon Achan still crushed it in the outside zone.
13:40And don't think for a minute Miami had a good offensive line because they didn't.
13:45Now, I talked about Miami for five minutes, but I haven't talked about Hampton.
13:49Hampton's a player. Hampton broke his ankle and he was still, when he came back, he was still getting 15.9 PPR points a game.
13:57He's that good. But he's a natural outside zone runner.
14:00And guess what Mike McDaniel is the master of?
14:03The outside zone. Rayshon Slater missed all last year.
14:06He's back. Joe Walt missed half the season. He's back.
14:09One of the best tackle duos in the league.
14:11They addressed the interior line as well. One tackle spot I'm not thrilled about, but the line's been upgraded.
14:17But here's the beauty. You know McDaniel's running heavy personnel.
14:20He brought Alec Ingle, the fullback, over. They're going to have – they brought Charlie Kohler in, tight end.
14:26They – oh, I'm going to miss a second.
14:29They brought in Njoku. They've already got Gadsden. They're going to have two running backs, two tight ends, so 22 personnel.
14:36They're going to have some three tight end looks.
14:39They are going to have so many heavy bodies on the field.
14:42And they got Justin Herbert. So defenses can't go to sleep because Justin Herbert can kill you with his arm.
14:48Hampton is going to go nuts this year. You could draft him in the early second round.
14:54So if you were picking at the end of the first, you could take a great player first and then come back with Hampton.
15:01But I'm telling you, and again, anybody can miss time.
15:04But if Hampton plays in that offense with that coach, with that team, he's the running back three.
15:10You know, I can't even deny any of that.
15:13I mean, I think Hampton and, you know, he and McDaniel go together like peanut butter and jelly.
15:18I mean, it's just – you know, it's a combo made in heaven.
15:22You know, you get – it's like having a young Raheem Mostert having the backfield mostly to himself.
15:28You know, something like that. I mean, you know, and a much bigger Raheem Mostert as well.
15:33You know, because Hampton's got that speed. He can – you know, once he gets out there, he can really move and tacklers start bouncing off him.
15:42I mean, and I just love the setup. You said it perfectly.
15:45You know, we've got the whole – we've got, you know, 12, 22, 13 personnel.
15:50All this kind of stuff happening. You know, and you know what?
15:54He's still good running out of 11 personnel too.
15:57So it's all good. You know, it's a perfect situation.
16:00I'm really surprised that people are letting, you know, like Keaton Mitchell or Kamani Vidal talk them out of Omari and Hampton.
16:07I mean, you know, I love Keaton Mitchell. I think he's a great baseball pick.
16:11Yeah, he is. Because, you know, he's somebody who's going to get probably five to eight touches a game, something like that, if he stays healthy.
16:19And he can really do some damage with some of those touches.
16:23He's going late enough that you don't need him to do a ton to pay off.
16:28But, you know, to think that that's going to get in the way of Omari and Hampton.
16:33Right. Absolutely rocking out. I just don't see it.
16:36Nope. Not at all. Awesome. All right. We're going to pay the bills here real quick.
16:41We're going to do a quick word, and we'll be right back.
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19:48All right. There we have it. Dominate. Where have I heard that before?
19:52Hmm. Hmm. All right. Well, we are back and let's fire away with one more running back.
19:57I'm going to put Travis Etienne up. He is a running back 18.
20:01And, you know, paying running back seems to be kind of back in style, Jim.
20:06The Saints just paid Etienne 12 million per year.
20:08Puts him in the top 10 average annual value at running back.
20:12So we like to see that. I mean, you know, getting paid isn't everything.
20:17He's still got to perform. But it's a nice start because it means the team is bought in.
20:22And that's what we want to see. And, you know what?
20:26With Etienne, barring an injury average 2024, he has never failed the top 200 PPR points.
20:31And he's finished running back three and running back 10 in 2023 and 2025.
20:35So you do have to kind of throw out that 2024 season where he was dealing with all sorts of nagging injuries.
20:42And some people just seem unwilling to do that.
20:45You know, it's like he's I think he's one of those players that some fantasy gamers got really burned on.
20:51And then now they're mad because they missed out on him last year because they got burned in 2024.
20:57And so, you know, they're like, I'm not going to draft that guy anymore because I never get him right.
21:03So, you know, it's kind of funny how that works.
21:06But he's moving to a Saints team that wants to play fast.
21:10And they've got a hot offensive guru and Kellen Moore is the head coach.
21:14Kellen Moore knows how to design a run game.
21:17No doubt about it. And really, his main competition is a washed Alvin Kamara and a bunch of replacement level running backs.
21:24Some of whom have a hard time staying healthy even.
21:27And, you know, it's just it's hard to imagine how Etienne is not going to get a significant share of the work there.
21:34I mean, I think he's probably going to get 70 percent, which is about, you know, 65, 70 percent is about as
21:41much as we can hope for on almost any running back, except for a very few.
21:46Certainly a guy you're getting running back 18. If you can get 60 to 70 percent of the running back work, that's good.
21:53So the Saints look to be an offense on the rise.
21:56Etienne can run and catch the ball effectively. I mean, it's just everything's kind of fitting together really nicely here.
22:03And I think he's got a lot less competition than what he had in Jacksonville last year.
22:08What do you think, Jim? Yeah, Etienne volume is king in fantasy football.
22:12And the only possible worry is if Kamara stays there and if he's not, he won't be featured clearly.
22:18But if they say, oh, well, let's put you in a receiving role.
22:22And if Kamara is lightly used and he's just doing receiving work, the only worry is that he gets 40 catches.
22:28And that that scrapes off a line on Etienne.
22:31I don't know that that'll happen, but it's something to keep in the back of your mind because I'd like to see Kamara released or traded.
22:39Not sure nobody's going to trade for him. But that's the only.
22:43But other than that, they invested in left guard David Edwards from Buffalo.
22:47Very good because the line is terrible last year.
22:50And he had some injuries. And then left tackle Kelvin Banks was decent.
22:54He could improve. But I think this team is another team that could use more heavy personnel.
22:59So they had Juwan Johnson. And we don't think much of Noah Fant, but they brought him in.
23:05They drafted Oscar Delp. Last year they drafted blocking specialist Maliki Matavo.
23:09So they potentially have a room with Matavo being a blocker, which I don't know how that's going to factor in.
23:15But they could get some extra bodies to help that line and work Kellen Moore's game system off of that.
23:21But that said, I do like your call on Etienne because it seems more likely than not that he is going to get that volume.
23:29And at the cost of RB2 prices, it would be a very, very easy connection to say he ends as an RB1.
23:36Yep, absolutely. So I think he's going to kind of be right at that RB1, RB2 borderline a little bit.
23:42But I really like, I love the Oscar Delp track pick because this is a guy that they can put at the wide tight end.
23:50And, you know, he is fast and he's also a good blocker.
23:54So we love to see those two things. And what that adds is that that adds an element of uncertainty to the
24:01defense because they don't really know what's coming out of that 12 personnel.
24:05Sometimes when teams get into 12 personnel, you can kind of tell, eh, it's probably going to be a run here.
24:11But I think the Saints are good enough to be able to pull that off and really hide whether they're going to be running or passing.
24:19So I think it's a fun pick. I do not mind at all taking Travis Etienne.
24:24Everybody else seems to be a little bit hesitant.
24:27But, hey, I'm in. So let's move on to wide receivers.
24:30You got one of my favorites coming up here.
24:33I do. Before then, I want to add a little value for your audience real quick here.
24:39We're talking about this two tight end and this three tight end thing.
24:43And I'm going to take a minute. I'll get this out quick.
24:46You are going to hear a lot of people this summer use the number 30.1%.
24:51And they're going to say that in the context, the Rams use 30.1% three tight ends, 13 personnel.
24:57And that, I'm telling you, is lazy analysis. Why?
24:59Why? The Rams never started using that until they're buying, I believe, week eight.
25:04And then they had to stop using it in week 15 because they had tight end injuries.
25:09But once they installed it, 46% to 50% of the time, they were using three tight ends.
25:14For your audience, what that means is on those plays, one wide receiver is on the field.
25:20Not two. So I want your audience just to think this through.
25:23I've already broken out all 30 teams like what I think how many teams can use it.
25:29A lot can't. They don't have personnel to do it.
25:32But be careful because the league is changing fast.
25:35And if you're on the back end of this, where Dan and I are talking two tight end, three ends, this is all on this upswing.
25:43This is changing offense in the league. I'll shut up, but I want everybody to be aware of that.
25:49This is going to be a massive trend. Now I'll get to my point.
25:53That is a great point. Dan, anything on that?
25:56All right. Anything you want to add to that?
25:59Yeah. Just that, you know, and the other thing that that really leads to is the fact that you're going to see
26:05fewer wide receivers on the field, which means that sometimes it's going to be a little bit harder to get that value
26:12out of those wide receivers who are further down in the pecking order.
26:16That number one wide receiver has a lot more value.
26:19And so while everybody's going RB heavy, you know, in the early rounds, we all want to be robust RB, but I
26:26don't know getting a couple of three of those, no doubt about it.
26:30Number one wide receivers who we know are going to be on the field and 22 personnel or 13 personnel that's got value.
26:37If you didn't notice, Dan, the slot receiver alone, they're dying a fast death.
26:42He wasn't much, but to Mario Douglas was like relegated out last year.
26:46Even Khalil Shakira had a decent season. He used to see 76% of the snaps.
26:50He was down to 50. The slot receiver is dying a fast death.
26:55They're going to be obsolete. The ones that are thriving are your hybrids.
26:59Your I'm on Russ St. Brown, who used to be a slot halftime outside halftime inside.
27:04Anyway, leagues change and I'll shut up my sleeper running.
27:07You can't call a sleeper. My undervalued receiver, Justin Jefferson.
27:10How in the world are we getting him at the end of the first early second fantasy football community?
27:16You have unjustly punished Justin Jefferson. I made a mistake last year.
27:19I said he was quarterback proof. I had no idea he wasn't J.J.
27:23McCarthy proof. J.J. McCarthy might not make it to CFL.
27:27So I'm sorry I got that wrong, but I'm telling you, Kyler Murray may not be good.
27:32But Sam Darnold ran this offense two years ago.
27:35And I'm telling you, Sam Darnold is not a good quarterback.
27:38He won a Super Bowl. God bless him. Sam Darnold had 35 touchdowns and 4,300 yards in this offense.
27:44Kyler Murray may not be good, but he is at least as good as Sam Darnold.
27:49And Justin Jefferson, he had 1,000 yards last year, two touchdowns.
27:52Terrible. Not his fault. Once in his career did he miss time.
27:56He missed seven games two years ago to hamstring.
27:59Otherwise, he's never missed a game. In this offense, Kevin O'Connell schemes him open within a half a second.
28:05Open, open. Regardless of the coverage on him. Kyler Murray can make those throws without issue.
28:10Justin Jefferson is an established 1,600-yard receiver. Those are his averages for the four years before.
28:15And the injury you extrapolate because you can't extrapolate because he's been at that level.
28:19He's a 1,600-yard receiver. That is his floor in a regular situation.
28:23It's higher than St. Brown ceiling. It's better than Smith and Jigba.
28:27And it borders with Puka. Justin Jefferson could easily be the wide receiver one.
28:31And it would not be a stretch of any magnitude.
28:34But with any quarterback, his floor, in my mind, floor is wide receiver five.
28:39Yeah. Could not agree more. I mean, obviously, for those who know me, I am a Vikings fan.
28:44So, I love to see the Justin Jefferson love here.
28:48But, you know what? I was right there with you, Jim.
28:51I was drinking the Kool-Aid on J.J. McCarthy. Because, you know what?
28:55Kevin O'Connell was throwing it out there. And I was like, you know what?
28:59He seems really positive about it. If Kevin O'Connell is positive about this guy, I'm going to be positive about him, too.
29:06And it turns out that, you know, Kevin O'Connell, coaches do lie.
29:10And Kevin O'Connell was apparently quite capable of it.
29:12Woo! So, that one was on me. But, yeah.
29:15I mean, it was just last year we were debating, you know, is it Justin Jefferson or is it Jamar Chase?
29:22Who's the best wide receiver in football? Who's the best wide receiver in fantasy football?
29:26Same debate, you know? So, you know, now we're punishing Justin Jefferson by a full round for a quarterback who's almost certainly not going to be playing anymore.
29:35To be honest, I like the fact that they've got Carson Wentz in there as another quarterback.
29:40Because, you know what? If Kyler Murray, if something happens to him and J.J.
29:45McCarthy ain't it, Carson Wentz, he actually would have been pretty good last year if he hadn't been playing with that bum shoulder.
29:52And that was a tough deal for him. He actually looked pretty decent for a couple games.
29:57And then all of a sudden the shoulder issue started and he was no good anymore.
30:02And they just left him out there against the Chargers to just kind of get him through a game.
30:08And it was a tough deal. But, you know what?
30:11He came back. He signed again. I think Kevin O'Connell really likes him.
30:15So, I think that's possibly your backup quarterback if anything happens to Kyler Murray.
30:20And having a good backup quarterback for Justin Jefferson is exactly what we want to see.
30:25So, love it. I think that's a great call.
30:27And I'm going to go with... I'm diving a little bit deeper on some wide receivers just for fun.
30:33I'm going with Terry McLaurin at wide receiver 25.
30:36And granted, this one probably hinges as much on the health of Jaden Daniels as it does on McLaurin.
30:42So, I'm going to give you that. But in this range of drafts, we're looking for players who can smash their ADP.
30:49And to me, that's F1. You know, you want the McLaurin working for you.
30:53With David Blau as the offensive coordinator, he has stated that he wants to feature McLaurin.
30:58And he wants to move him around the formation.
31:01We did not see that much out of Cliff Kingsbury.
31:04He just basically lined him up the same place all the time and let him go.
31:09And, you know, while McLaurin can handle that, if he can actually move around the formation, that's going to allow him to
31:16get off of some of the tougher cornerbacks and, you know, put him in some easier situations.
31:21And when Daniels and McLaurin were both healthy in 2024, McLaurin was the wide receiver 7.
31:26And he had an incredible 13 weeks with 15-plus PPR points.
31:30Now, that's consistency and that's high value, too. I mean, that's just amazing.
31:34If I know at wide receiver 25, I got a shot at getting 15-plus PPR points, 13 weeks out of 17, I'm all over that.
31:41And that's definitely in the range of outcomes for 2026.
31:45We just need to see the health from Daniels.
31:47We just need to see the health from McLaurin.
31:50Both of them are coming into the season totally healthy.
31:53So, let's go. I think it's wheels up for the F1.
31:57What do you think? Yeah, there's no doubt. And, look, a lot of people are saying, well, Brandon Ayuk, he hasn't played in two years.
32:04And they're talking about Stephon Diggs. And he obviously had 1,000 yards last year, so he still can play.
32:10But the whole thing is the offensive install is already going in.
32:14And McLaurin's already the guy. So, yeah, will somebody else contribute?
32:18Yes, every team has two receivers that contribute, whoever it is.
32:21And I like Antonio Williams, at least when they drafted him.
32:24You know, a good catch-and-run guy that might fit in there.
32:28But McLaurin is so far the alpha on this team.
32:31And they paid him last year. And I know last year the contract strike probably led to conditioning issues, which is why he missed time.
32:39Yeah, there's no way you avoid him. You said it.
32:42The connection with quarterback Jaden Daniels is incredible. But even this, Dan, down the stretch last season when McLaurin finally was on
32:49the field but Daniels wasn't, McLaurin was still averaging 63 yards a game with backup quarterbacks, which is over 1,000-yard pace, which with those quarterbacks.
32:56So, it doesn't even matter. He'll still get you numbers if Daniels misses so it doesn't, like, tank the whole thing.
33:03That makes it even a better pick. Yeah, that's a good point, Jim.
33:07Because Marcus Mariota is still there, and he's still a pretty solid backup.
33:11He's one of the better backups in the game.
33:14So, that gives you a level of professionalism that a lot of teams just aren't going to see if the backup quarterback has to go in.
33:22So, I like that. And, yeah, just, you know, McLaurin, he is one of – I'm not worried at all about Diggs.
33:29I'm not worried about Ayuk, any of those guys.
33:32Because if they come in, they're just going to be the wide receiver, too.
33:36They're not going to say, okay, well, Terry McLaurin, you're now our wide receiver, too, after we paid you last year and
33:43after you've been here for the entire offensive install this year.
33:46We're just going to push somebody ahead of you.
33:49That's not happening. And, you know what? If he's got a quality wide receiver opposite, it's only going to help.
33:55So, no issues there at all. All right. What do you got for us next, Jim?
34:00Who's your next guy? Wide receiver 23 and ADP is Jalen Waddell, and that is a mistake.
34:06The first thing I hear, oh, he can never stay healthy.
34:09Well, guess what? He's barely missed any time in his career.
34:12He missed, like, a couple games, and that's it.
34:15Jalen Waddell's on the field. Now, I know he's on the sideline.
34:19He gets dinged up here and there. But he is not the injury.
34:23But here's the problem. Here is why I believe he got nicked up.
34:27I mentioned this earlier in the show. Tua Tungvalu has got a pop gun for an arm.
34:32I told you this earlier in the show. Defense just compressed everything in.
34:36So, all the catch and run concepts that were designed for Waddell, he was getting creamed as soon as he caught the ball because defenders weren't even back.
34:45So, Waddell never had a chance. He was taking a beating.
34:49Well, it'll be way different in Denver. A, they have an elite offensive line.
34:53They have a run game, whether it's going to be Dobbins or when he gets hurt, Jonah Coleman, because Harvey can catch the ball, but he can't run.
35:02But they're going to be fine there. But we also know Cortland Sutton's on the outside, and he is going to command some attention as well.
35:10So, Waddell's in a really healthy situation. Bo Nix, the quarterback, don't trust his footwork, but he can throw short and intermediate.
35:17Now, here is the litmus test. Here is exactly why I can prove that Jalen Waddell is going to have a great season.
35:24I call it the Troy Franklin experiment. Last year, it was very clear that Sean Payton had a vision for his offense that he wanted to try.
35:32So, this is what Payton did. Weeks 7 through 11, a complete five-straight-week sample.
35:36Cortland Sutton was the number two receiver. His fantasy points went from 16 a game to 10.
35:42This is what Troy Franklin was given. Targets 10, 8, 10, 9, and 8.
35:46Nine targets a game. Every game, he had more targets than Sutton.
35:50What was the rest of the experiment? Payton wanted a catch-and-run receiver.
35:54Well, Troy Franklin in those five games and all those targets, he had games with 19 yards, 27 yards, 40.
36:00He had a pair of 80s. He failed the experiment.
36:03And it was shelved. At that point, Pat Bryant started playing a little more.
36:07Sutton became the number one again. Sutton ended up being fine.
36:11So, the Broncos send first, third, and fourth-round picks to bring Waddell in.
36:15It's very clear why they brought him in. He is taking the role that was tried with Franklin, which is nine targets a game with designed after-to-catch opportunity.
36:23Jalen Waddell is a perfect player for that role.
36:26That is why you're drafting him as a steal at wide receiver 23, because he is getting you wide receiver 15 numbers.
36:33And why is he not going to get hurt as much?
36:36Because, again, defenses cannot compress the field the same way they did against Miami.
36:41Beautiful. I love it. And I got to tell you this, Jim.
36:45As soon as that trade was made, I started going out there and trying to get some Jalen Waddell shares in Dynasty.
36:51Yes, sir. Yes. Because I was seeing the same thing.
36:55I was like, they're on to something. They have a particular type of receiver that they want to feature, and it's not Courtland Sutton.
37:02I mean, there's nothing wrong with Courtland Sutton. He's good at what he does.
37:06But what he does is not necessarily what fits into that offense the best.
37:11I mean, you remember a couple years ago, they were even talking about possibly trading Courtland Sutton.
37:16Correct. So that tells you that he was not the best fit for this offense.
37:21But, of course, Sean Payton, being the guy that he is and the offensive genius that he is, he can make anything work.
37:28But he wanted to try, you know, doing something else with Troy Franklin.
37:32Okay, maybe he can't make everything work, but he can make almost anything work.
37:36I certainly think he can make Jalen Waddell work.
37:39So, love the pick there. That one's one of my favorites.
37:42And like I say, in Dynasty, I've been going out there and quietly acquiring him.
37:47I traded Rasheed Rice share for Jalen Waddell because, you know what?
37:51I think Waddell can do everything that Rice can do.
37:54And Jalen Waddell isn't going to go to jail as far as I know.
37:58It's a benefit. It's always a plus. Yeah. Not going to jail.
38:02Check. No doubt about it. And the nice thing is, you know, Rasheed Rice has had his injury problems too.
38:08So, I felt like, you know, even if Waddell's injury nicks and all that, you know, managed to come up again, I'm not getting any worse there.
38:17And I'm getting, you know, a great player, somebody who's proven that they can do this for a long time.
38:23You know, I don't know what's going to happen with Rasheed Rice once he, you know, gets through the season in Kansas City.
38:30Are they going to really want to resign him with all the problems he's caused?
38:35He's been a big headache. And he's had a hard time staying on the field.
38:39So, I don't know. I think, you know, the Rasheed Rice rope could be getting a little bit short here.
38:46And I want to make sure I was... It depends how many yards.
38:50Dan, it depends how many yards he gets. I call it the BS factor in football.
38:55It depends how much trouble you cause but how good you are on the field.
38:59If you're not very good, they don't put up much.
39:02But man, if you could produce 1,200 yards, guess what?
39:06We don't really mind those problems so much. Exactly.
39:08But I figured, you know what? I'm going to get out of the Rasheed Rice business a year too early if I
39:15have to just to make sure that I don't get out a year too late.
39:20Smart. Yep. What we got to do for sure.
39:23All right. My next one. And I'm going to go into a dangerous area here because I'm going to be looking at
39:30a player who has spent a lot of time in the slot.
39:33But they don't spend all their time in the slot.
39:36Parker Washington, wide receiver 35. We've all heard about how Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr.
39:41have been working on their chemistry. I'm happy for them.
39:44That's great. They should. They needed to. But the player who excels in the areas where T-Law already likes to throw the ball is Parker Washington.
39:53That's the bread and butter zone for Lawrence. And from week nine onwards, Washington averaged 15 PPR points per week over a nine-game sample.
40:00So I know a lot of people say, well, it was a small sample size.
40:05Well, nine games is, you know, that's half a season.
40:08And they could say, well, yeah, but, you know, Travis Hunter was hurt.
40:12And, you know, he was the only thing in the offense that was working.
40:16And I get all that. But at wide receiver 35, I'm getting, you know, I've got some room to be wrong here.
40:23But I don't think I am. Because in the playoffs versus Buffalo, Parker Washington, seven for 110 and a touchdown on 10 targets.
40:30I mean, they just love using him. And we're getting that discount because he was a slot wide receiver that was not a fantasy crush before his breakout.
40:39And you know what? If you're one of those guys that everybody wasn't all over their jockstrap before the season started, everybody
40:46says, ah, he's just kind of a flash in the pan.
40:49He's not really anything. We're going to find out the hard way.
40:53Well, the Jaguars are pumping him up. And this is a contract year for him.
40:58If the Jags can't sign him beforehand, he gets out of this year, he's going to be looking for a new deal.
41:04So I'm wheels up on Parker Washington. What do you think, Jim?
41:08It's a really interesting story because there are a lot of layers to this.
41:13But the layers come up with Washington out on top.
41:16I believed all along that Liam Cohen, he needed a half a season to figure out who his quarterback was.
41:22I've talked about it on my shows how Brian Thomas is not a stylistic fit with Trevor Lawrence.
41:27Trevor Lawrence is not good to the perimeter. He's very good in the middle of the field.
41:33That's why they brought in Jacoby Myers. But in the meantime, when they brought in Myers, which did help, it was a third-year breakout for Parker Washington.
41:41Remember that used to be a thing, third-year breakout?
41:44This is a player that wasn't getting a lot of opportunities.
41:47But what happened was, in my opinion, when Cohen realized what his quarterback could and couldn't do, he changed the offense to fit Lawrence.
41:55But it was halfway through the season. That is why Parker Washington exploded.
41:59Now, Jacoby Myers hasn't had a training camp until this year because he was traded for midseason.
42:04And so there's a case that Myers would be better.
42:07But here's why Washington is going to be the guy.
42:10Myers is not explosive. Myers is a very good possession receiver, and he runs to the middle of the field.
42:17But Parker Washington gives him a dynamic, explosive element from the middle.
42:20And even though Thomas doesn't have a good connection with his quarterback, he still occupies the safety because of the threat.
42:27It gives more space for Parker Washington. Now, the people who get nervous will say, well, wait a minute.
42:33They drafted Nate Borker, or probably reached for him in the second round.
42:37They drafted Tanner Kozio, another tight end. And they got Brenton Strange.
42:41So they got three tight ends. So is this a team that wants to go two and three tight ends?
42:47I just say this is my final choice on this.
42:50I say they're going to do it situationally. If they're playing with a lead late, I think they're going to go three tight ends.
42:57I believe he'll do that. If there's a certain game script.
43:01Outside of that, there's a three receiver offense. It has to be because they're a quarterback.
43:06So I believe fundamentally they have to go three receivers.
43:09And Parker Washington is in that equation. So with you, completely in on them.
43:13Love it. Love it. Yeah. And I think that's a great point.
43:17You know, the way this offense has succeeded is running 11 personnel.
43:21And I think that's how they're going to have to get out there and get leads.
43:26If they try to do too much 12 personnel and get cute, I think they're going to suffer offensively.
43:32It's just not going to be the same. It's going to constrict them.
43:36And so, you know, but having the opportunity to do that, you know, they can go back and forth.
43:42They can spend more time at 11, but they can do 12 when they need to or want to.
43:48So it just gives them more optionality. But I think Parker Washington, whatever happens, is going to be a big part of the offense.
43:55So love it. All right. And who's your last wide receiver?
43:58DJ Moore. Look, those who follow me, you know I can't get off of DJ Moore.
44:03It's a fatal flaw of mine. I still, to this day, say that DJ Moore has never had a good situation.
44:10He was in Carolina with all those bad quarterbacks.
44:13He had a 1,300-yard season with Justin Fields. And then Caleb Williams, he's a good quarterback, but Ben Johnson didn't like DJ Moore's body language.
44:21And he said that. And I laughed. I go, there's no way that's going to be a thing.
44:26It was the thing. He got 85 targets. But DJ Moore, they had to get him the ball in games in the second half of the season.
44:35DJ Moore, including the NFL playoffs, had six games at at least 17 PPR points.
44:39And that is a good benchmark. Those are good, productive games.
44:43And of those six games, four of them were over 20 PPR points.
44:47So he, when he got the ball, he's the same DJ Moore.
44:50He could catch the ball short, intermediate, deep. He is still a beast with the ball in his hands.
44:56But here's the bigger story. In each of the last two seasons, I told people Buffalo Bills are not going to get
45:03deep into the playoffs because they don't have an outside receiver.
45:07They, at the end of the day in the NFL playoffs, teams know when you have a weakness and they will force that weakness to break you.
45:15Josh Allen could run. He had Shakir. He had Kincaid.
45:18But he had nobody on the outside. Two years running.
45:21DJ Moore's acquisition is huge. Because this is another team that very possibly could buy into the three tenets.
45:27We know they love to use two already. Kincaid, though, right now they're saying he's healthy.
45:32It was a concern at first. He has PCL issues with his knee.
45:36Now he has to be healthy. Dawson Knox will be out there.
45:40He can block and he can do enough catching.
45:43Jackson Hawes. They love him. If Kincaid stays healthy, he's going to be a three tight end offense.
45:48That would mean one player on the field at receiver and that's DJ Moore all day long.
45:54But even if they only go with two, maybe because of injuries, they do.
45:58So, DJ Moore is that player that Josh Allen needs to have.
46:02And I know they got rid of Stephon Diggs because he wanted the ball too much.
46:07But DJ Moore has never been that guy that's cried for the ball more.
46:11He's never done that. So, he's not like a diva like that.
46:15And so, ultimately, what does Josh Allen do best?
46:18Extends plays, right? He gets the ball, runs around for seven seconds.
46:21DJ Moore has always been a phenomenal improvisational receiver.
46:24And if you think about that, when Allen's moving around, you think about the lesser receivers he's found, DJ Moore is going to be streaking after the catch.
46:33So, DJ Moore at wide receiver 29. All right.
46:36Worst case scenario, wide receiver 20. Worst case scenario in my mind.
46:39And I know they only throw 480 times there.
46:42I know. But how many receivers are on the field?
46:45He's getting targets. I'm done. This is exactly what we were talking about, Jim, with the 13 personnel.
46:51Okay. Now you're down to one wide receiver. Who is it going to be?
46:55It's going to be DJ Moore. And they're going to, you know, the defense is going to be occupied with these tight ends and everything.
47:03Sure, they're going to be putting a good cornerback on DJ Moore.
47:07But you know what? DJ Moore is a good enough receiver to get off of that.
47:12And the targets get concentrated to that wide receiver when there's only one wide receiver on the field.
47:17So, you've got to love the situation there without a doubt.
47:21I mean, you know, DJ Moore has had the worst quarterback luck of anybody.
47:25When you can say that his best season came with Justin Fields.
47:29You know. Say no more. Say no more. We get you.
47:32You know, the poor guy has been snakebit at quarterback the entire time.
47:36I mean, you know, Caleb Williams, okay. He was a good quarterback.
47:40At least fantasy-wise. But, you know, at that point he appeared to have, as you said, worn out his welcome with Ben Johnson.
47:47So, I'm happy to see him in a new environment.
47:50I think he's going to be looking to show what he can do.
47:54I think this could be the best season we see out of DJ Moore for his career.
48:00All right. And I've got one more wide receiver.
48:02And we're going to go with, this is another guy who's down there a ways.
48:07I'm going with Ricky Pearsall. Wide receiver 42. Okay.
48:10Is it a risky pick? You bet it is.
48:13But you're not getting wide receivers this deep in a draft without some level of risk.
48:18And Pearsall, he's had injury issues for sure, but not always his fault.
48:22So, we're, you know, there's risk here. But, you know what?
48:25We've got Mike Evans and George Kittle who are plenty injury prone.
48:29You know. They've had their problems. And they're both older players as well.
48:33Christian McCaffrey just touched the ball 450 times last year, Jim, including the playoffs.
48:37450 times. Let that sink in for a minute.
48:40I mean, you know. So, I think if any one of those players gets hurt, the value of the others increases.
48:47And especially of Pearsall. Because, you know what? We've got Dejon Stribbling, which, you know, there's a player to like because of the situation that he's in.
48:55And you know what? If we can like Dejon Stribbling's situation, we sure should be liking Ricky Pearsall.
49:01He's looked good when he's healthy. He's been one of those players that, you know, he's had a chance to play and he's been healthy.
49:08He has done well. And, you know, if you look at what Kyle Shanahan has been saying about him, he expects Ricky
49:15Pearsall to be a major piece of the offense.
49:18Right? And he's not concerned about his hamstring. I know he tweaked it during OTAs.
49:23But, you know, Shanahan didn't seem concerned about it at all.
49:26He talked about his professionalism, how he arrived in excellent condition for the offseason program.
49:31Been pleased with his approach. I mean, this is like the anti-Brandon Ayuk, right?
49:35So, the coaching staff views him as being a really established starter.
49:39And he's in a situation where if anything happens with Evans or Kittle or McCaffrey, boom.
49:44It's wheels up for Pearsall. And I think Pearsall is going to get plenty to pay off his wide receiver 42, even if all those guys stay healthy.
49:53But he's definitely going to be a win at ADP.
49:56And he could smash at ADP. Do you think I'm wrong, Jim?
49:59Here's the thing. And I'm going to start with a different player.
50:03We talk about Christian Watson. He's going as a wide receiver 24.
50:07Never had 620 yards. Never played a full season.
50:10There's no injury discount. Ricky Pearsall, you are getting a full injury discount.
50:14And people, I think, are making another mistake. Not just, all right, so he was hurt last year.
50:19Yeah, he had an knee injury. And he missed half the season.
50:23But people are looking at his season log, and they're saying, well, rookie year, he missed time.
50:28He got shot. That's not an injury concern. So to say he missed six games as a rookie, I guess you're right.
50:35But you can't hang a two-year, like, you know, injury tag on him.
50:39So first of all, give him a little latitude there.
50:42So the injury discount's massive. Now, to start last season, before Pearsall dealt the injuries, he played two games at Mac Jones and two games at Brock Purdy.
50:51The Purdy games, four for a buck eight and four for 46.
50:55But Purdy got hurt in that game. So that said.
50:58And the two games at Mac Jones, four for 56 and eight for a buck 17.
51:03So with both quarterbacks, he had about a 50-yard game and he had about a 100-yard game.
51:08That tells you he's kind of quarterback proof for the two quarterbacks they have.
51:13So he's not dependent on Purdy because they still have Mac Jones.
51:16He's the young one there. Mike Evans missed 12 games the last two years.
51:21He's 33. He said Kittle coming off an ACL in January.
51:24He's 33. So Pearsall at that injury discount, because that's what it is.
51:28It's an injury discount. But legitimately, the numbers that you saw, those are strong wide receiver two numbers.
51:34And you're getting him as a wide receiver four?
51:36Yeah. Why wouldn't you take that discount, Dan? Love it.
51:40Love it. All right. Let's move on, Jim. You got a fun tight end here.
51:44Let's hear about him. Yeah. If you're in those two tight end leagues where you really, really punt the position.
51:51And I know everybody, I've had some really, I think, fun takes today.
51:55And you're going to hear his name and you're going to deflate like a bad balloon.
52:00But Mark Andrews, ADP tight end 16. Why in the world would I be on Mark Andrews?
52:05Because it sounds like the dumbest thing in human history coming off the season he had.
52:10But hear me out. So, first of all, who do they have at receiver?
52:14Rashad Bateman had that one good year. They got Devontae's walker, Jacoby Lane, which, look, they draft him a third round.
52:21Seriously, I don't see that happening. Elijah Surratt, fine.
52:23He was a fourth round pick. Good luck with that.
52:27At the end of the day, this team let go of Isaiah Likely.
52:31They let go of Charlie Kohler. But last year, they added three years on a Mark Andrews contract.
52:36So, as a fantasy world, you might think Andrews is done.
52:40Baltimore didn't think that. They gave a 30-year-old player a three-year deal.
52:43Tight ends don't age like receivers. So, they don't think he's done.
52:47And now what's his competition? Well, Durham Spice, a blocker, and he's going to be on the field.
52:53They will have two tight ends out there. With that receiver room, they definitely play two tight ends.
52:58They also drafted Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas. So, this is another team.
53:02It's not out of the realm to see them putting three tight ends on the field with some frequency.
53:08I'm not saying they're doing it a ton. But they're going to go with two, and there are plays they're going to have three.
53:16Because that receiver room, Zay Flowers is great, but there's not much else.
53:20And that connection that Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews have, that thing is so real.
53:24And without likely stealing 60 targets or whatever it was, Andrews is getting targets this year.
53:29He is the number two option in this offense.
53:32And that quarterback, Jackson, loves him. Andrews is going to be a steal a tight end six team.
53:38I think he gets you enough touchdowns. He's a big touchdown guy when things are rolling.
53:43And Jackson's injuries, look, he had a hamstring and then three compensatory injuries that just ruined the season.
53:48Andrews is a beautiful tight end, too. Love it.
53:51Love it. Yeah. Everybody's sleeping on Mark Andrews. He's another guy.
53:55He can play in the slot. He can slide up and play Y.
53:59So he can be blocking and then chip a player and then release off the line into the flat.
54:05Or just go streaking down the middle of the field.
54:08And there's just all kinds of things he can do with Mark Andrews.
54:12So it's no surprise to me that they paid him.
54:15Because you know what? But Isaiah Likely, for all the splash plays that he made, he just didn't earn that many targets ever.
54:22And, you know, he's a – and Likely was a slow player as well.
54:26So he was one of those guys that, you know, teams just didn't have to worry about that much.
54:32So I love the fact that they kept Andrews.
54:35I think that shows that the team was really sharp.
54:38They knew what they were doing. And I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in that offense.
54:44Because, you know what? It's a whole different offense when Lamar Jackson is healthy.
54:49And I think with Declan Doyle and their offensive coordinator, they're going to have some new wrinkles.
54:54So I think it's going to be a fun offense.
54:57I think we're going to see some new things.
55:00I'm excited to see what Andrews does. I've got him in a couple dynasty leagues.
55:04And I've been taking him here and there as well in my redraft leagues.
55:09Because he's a player that's worth having on your roster.
55:12All right. But, Jim, I'm going to do you one better.
55:15Oh! Greg Dolson chime! You went boring. I'm going double boring.
55:19It's Greg Dolson chime! No, no, no. Not even Greg Dolson.
55:22I'm going even more boring than Greg Dolson. Greg Dolson has shot up past this tight end.
55:27So we're talking... I live in the bottom of the dumpster for tight ends sometimes.
55:32Because, you know, I'm used to playing on FFPC where you've got to have a couple extra tight ends around.
55:38I'm, you know... I know how to scout what a tight end needs to be doing to earn a lot of targets.
55:45And Dalton Schultz at tight end 23. That's a boring pick.
55:49No doubt about it. But it's a place where the draft where boring is good as long as the player is a good kind of boring.
55:57And Schultz is the good kind of boring. He's finished tight end 10 in three of the past four years, Jim.
56:03Tight end 10. That is the very definition of boring.
56:06But it's also the very definition of playable. And here's how you use Schultz in your lineup.
56:12When you can get that production in the last round or two of your draft, it's worthwhile.
56:17Because of the fact that you can now be shooting for the moon everywhere else.
56:22And you know that you've got... It's like if you jump out of an airplane and you pull the brook cord and
56:28your chute doesn't open, you better hope you have that emergency chute.
56:32Dalton Schultz is your emergency chute for tight ends.
56:35Right? I love it. I love it. So he's that guy that you want to get.
56:40Because you know what? You can get him in the last round or two.
56:44After his week six bye last year, Schultz was a tight end one in eight out of 12 weeks.
56:50That's consistency. We're looking for that. He's a constant...
56:53Andrew Cooper was on last week. He talks about the yin and the yang tight ends.
56:58I'm sure you're familiar with that. And the yin tight end, that's that guy who could just bust and go totally, you
57:05know, tight end two, tight end three, tight end four.
57:08Or he could go tight end 30. We don't know.
57:11But the yang tight end, that's the key to it.
57:14Because you've got to have a guy who, you know, while you're scouting around on your roster for that tight end who
57:21can go nuclear, you've got to have that guy that you can stick in your lineup right away.
57:27And you can be confident that they're going to get you some points.
57:31And that's what Dalton Schultz gives you. Once again, he's going to be a major cog in the Houston offense.
57:37Last year, he had 105 targets. That was second most on the offense.
57:41And I know, you know, Jaden Higgins has taken a step forward.
57:45We're going to have Jalen Noel taking a step forward probably.
57:48Tank Dell might be back. I don't know what to expect out of him.
57:52But you know what? They're going to be running a lot of 12 personnel.
57:57We already talked about this in Houston. They're going to be running a lot of 12 personnel.
58:02And Dalton Schultz is going to be out there for it.
58:06And he's going to be the receiving tight end.
58:08I mean, if you're talking about Martin Klein, that's it.
58:11If you're talking Martin Klein or Dalton Schultz, it's going to be Dalton Schultz who's getting the targets.
58:17So you can go swing for upside the entire rest of your draft.
58:21And then you come back, draft boring old Dalton Schultz in the last round, and you're set at tight end.
58:27Yeah, and the other thing I mentioned earlier too, they do with Foster Morrow, they have the ability to run three tight ends.
58:34They might do it 10% of the time. But again, Schultz is a clear receiver in that group.
58:40So volume is king in fantasy football. I said that earlier, but Schultz is getting volume.
58:45And he is going to often be the second receiver on the field because they're not going to have a ton of them out there.
58:53So definitely on that, boring is good in fantasy football.
58:56Yes, yes, it definitely can be. All right, real quick before we get you out of here.
59:01We talked a lot about ADPs, but I'm curious, are there any late-round rookies that intrigue you, Jim?
59:07Anybody that you got your eye on? Yeah, DeJuan Stribling.
59:10Second round, first pick of the NFL draft. 49ers selected him.
59:13He is the perfect Kyle Shanahan catch-and-run guy. Big enough body.
59:17And I just defer to this. I said this earlier, Mike Evans missed 12 games in the last two years.
59:23Age and injuries, to me, they are directly correlated.
59:26George Kittle back from an Achilles injury. Christian Kirk's on the roster.
59:30Good luck. He never is healthy as it is.
59:32And as much as we love Pearsall, there is a chance that he misses time.
59:37Stribling does not need many of those dominoes to fall for him to be a real component in a Shanahan offense that
59:44we know can make you a star fast. So we'll see what happens.
59:48But that's wide receiver 85. So you have to be in a 20-plus round draft to be looking at him.
59:54But we're in those drafts, so I'm looking at him.
59:57Yep, yep, exactly. And, you know, he's kind of a perfect complement.
60:01If you take a Pearsall or you take a Mike Evans, you know, you can come back really late and grab Stribling.
60:08And you kind of, you know, it's almost like handcuffing a running back.
60:12You know, especially if you're in a standalone league, you know, sometimes that late handcuff can pay off a little bit more.
60:19You know, I understand when you're in a contest, you know, and you're going for, you know, six- and seven-figure prizes.
60:25You know, handcuffing is kind of the, it's maybe not ideal.
60:29But, you know, for most standalone leagues, definitely ideal.
60:31For sure, even in smaller leagues, he's just, you know, you're not going to draft him in a smaller league, you know,
60:38where you're going 16 rounds or something like that.
60:41But he's a guy you should have on your speed dial for sure.
60:45And mine is, I've got a guy I've been looking at, Denzel Boston.
60:49He has been tearing it up for Cleveland during minicamp.
60:52And he is a guy who can, he can play at all levels of the field.
60:57And he gives them a deep threat like they haven't really had in a while, you know, that can really play bully ball.
61:04He's a big target. I think he's going to be a solid part of this.
61:09You know, we've got Casey Concepcion who went in the first round, but they were talking about Boston.
61:15They would have taken him as a first round pick.
61:18They were thinking about taking him where they took Concepcion.
61:21But since Concepcion was there, they decided to roll the dice.
61:24We'll take Concepcion now and we'll get Boston later.
61:27And you know what? Denzel Boston might be the guy who ends up scoring more in fantasy than Concepcion.
61:33I know it's the Browns. I get it. But you know what?
61:37Sometimes when teams are way behind, they get to throw a lot.
61:41And the other team sort of loses interest in doing anything other than preventing the score.
61:46But they'll let them kind of slowly march down the field as long as they stay inbounds.
61:51So he can pick up a lot of garbage time as well.
61:55So that's one of my favorite players. All right.
61:57Well, Jim, we're coming up on an hour here.
62:00And I promised you I'd get you out of here in an hour.
62:04And we're going to do that. So thank you for joining me today.
62:08It was a fun show. And, you know, as I said before, I might just log off and run through that brick wall.
62:15I'm so excited after talking to you for an hour.
62:19Man, the wall always wins. Be careful, Dan. Yeah, I know.
62:22Especially at my age. Me too. I'm 61. So yeah, I'm feeling it, man.
62:26Oh, yeah. You and I are the same age.
62:29So there we go. We're twins on that. Yep.
62:32All right. So remind again, the people, what you got coming up and where to find you real quick.
62:38Yeah. If you have SiriusXM Fantasy Channel 87, I am on every day except Tuesday and Wednesday from 2 to 4 Eastern.
62:45No, 1 to 3 Eastern. I'm sorry. 1 to 3 Eastern.
62:48And then on the socials at Jim Coventry NFL.
62:51Tons of content every single day for you. Awesome.
62:54Awesome. And for my audience, thank you for watching or listening.
62:57Make sure you're hitting the like button. It's free.
63:00It's easy to do. Just do it. And if you can, leave a review wherever you're consuming this show.
63:06If you liked what you saw, say something on X and keep tuning in.
63:10Thursday afternoon, I'm going to have with me one of the newest and hottest analysts to grace my timeline, Zane Dahani, to
63:17talk about why you might just be focused on the wrong things when you're thinking about drafting your wide receivers.
63:23So I'm really looking forward to that conversation. And the hits just keep on coming.
63:28Next week, I'll be talking to Jared Smola. And there are plenty more of great guests along the way.
63:34So I'm working to bring you the best and the brightest of the fantasy football world.
63:39And that's why we got Jim on here. So make sure you're subscribed to the Player Profiler Network on YouTube and your podcast provider.
63:46You don't want to miss a single show. So we're going to do it for today.
63:51Until next week, get out there and dominate your drafts.
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