0:00Good afternoon, ladies and ladies. Happy to have you here on Risers and Fallers, the number one podcast for guys that think
0:06under the right circumstances they'd have a shot with Dua Lipa.
0:10We love delusion around here. We love red flags.
0:12We love all the good stuff. And we're going to talk about a lot of that today.
0:17Let's see what's on the docket. We're looking at ADPs in Freefall.
0:21And you know us on this show, we love to skew negative.
0:24So let's take a look at some of these ADPs.
0:27ADPs that have fallen the most since May. Let's talk about why that is, if it makes sense.
0:32And if we're all maybe just struggling with depression or not.
0:36We've got, oh, look at this. The first chat is the deepest.
0:39What's up, my guy? Happy to have you. Hope you guys are having a nice little week here as we get.
0:45I mean, it's so funny. I'm doing a podcast.
0:48Doing a podcast about Miles Garrett was traded this week.
0:51AJ Brown was traded this week. Russell Wilson retired.
0:53Darnell Washington, all six, eight, 275 pounds of him.
0:56Resigned with the Steelers. And today we're going to talk about ADPs that are falling.
1:00That's how you know you're a sick freak. You're going to get into some sick stuff here.
1:05So what do we got? We got a few early round guys that I thought would be good.
1:11You know, I don't think anybody's really interested on hearing my take on Juwan Jennings and why he may or not have been falling.
1:18We're gonna do a few early round guys and then a few mid round guys as well.
1:23It's always cool to hear you too. I'm happy to hear that, especially because you emphasize the hear portion of it.
1:29You know, just like any natural, normal human being.
1:31Anytime I hear myself on audio or hear myself on radio, I want to put on a heavy coat, walk all the way out into the ocean.
1:39Not when you say things like that. So that does make me feel pretty good.
1:44So let's get to our first ADP here. And then you guys can tear me into shreds.
1:49Guess who's falling? Would anybody have guessed this? Not me.
1:51Where are you? Get on here. I'm going to do some podcasting magic here.
1:56And how about Mr. Trey McBride? Would you believe that?
1:58Trey McBride down 3.6 spots. This is like the Paul Rudd meme for me.
2:03Like, hey, look at us. Who would have thought, huh?
2:05Not me. How the mighty have fallen down to the tight end to 26 overall kind of going at the late second,
2:12early third has the shame that this show has generated and really my entire Twitter profile overall.
2:17Has it started to make an impact on people?
2:20Is this podcast changing lives enough to impact boards?
2:22Is she sleeping with him? I don't know. These are questions.
2:25I don't currently have the answer to, but we'll get there.
2:29There's been no development with the Cardinals since the draft other than the Brissette holdout.
2:33We have the most hilarious quotes coming out from Michael floor with Michael Wilson playing the Puka Nikula role and Devante Adam or Marvin Harrison Jr.
2:41Playing the Devante Adams role, which is just my favorite thing ever.
2:44I'll never forget. My favorite one was Trey Burton in the Travis Kelsey role back in 2018.
2:49Never, ever fails to disappoint, but boy, do I love it.
2:52So yeah, let's get back to the quarterback thing here.
2:55So I'm not really too concerned about Brissette holding out considering the fact that Kyler Murray took most of the first team
3:02reps with the offense last offseason and Brissette just slid in and all the magic was made.
3:06The concern I have is the same as it's always been is that McBride it's twofold, right?
3:11McBride just can't replicate the historic top three season that he just had.
3:15And even if he the only way I would draft him at ADP is if I knew that he could and I don't know that he can.
3:23That doesn't even factor in the idea that we could see Gardner Minshew and Carson back at certain points this season, which
3:30rookie quarterbacks are awful for tight ends, even the great ones.
3:33The history of the tight end one in ADP combined with the history of a historic tight end season replicating itself is
3:39about as full of much success as the US men's soccer team.
3:43So as to as to say, zip. So I truly think the earliest I would take McBride is if he managed to fall to the fourth round.
3:51And that's just not happening because you guys are all weak and you're all easily tempted.
3:55And it's a shame because you scroll down the page here and you just you're just in constant awe.
4:01You know, he's just just a wonderful guy. He was a wonderful third round pick last year because he was a mid
4:07to late third round pick, maybe even fourth, depending on your league.
4:11And he broke the hell out. I loved it.
4:13He was an excellent, excellent addition to many of my lineups.
4:17The thing is, I just don't think that season's happening again.
4:20All these ones that we're seeing here, he's already the tight end to a lot of people think this is going to
4:26be what Brock Bowers page look like next year.
4:29But, you know, the team drafts Jeremiah Love, they bring in a new coach.
4:33I think there's going to be a little bit more emphasis on running the ball, getting the running backs used more, getting
4:39the wide receivers used more, even though they were used decently down the stretch.
4:43You know, but it's Rob Gronkowski did not replicate seasons like McBride just had.
4:47Kelsey did not replicate seasons like McBride just had.
4:50He had very good ones. But as we always talk around around the show, the guys that you're passing up for Trey
4:57McBride, if he were to drop from 18 points per game to even 15 points per game, 14 points per game, the
5:03guys that you're passing up in that second round for him, they're just scoring so many more points.
5:08And I like my guys to score so many more points.
5:11All right, let's get to our next guy here, because like I said, I got a few for you here.
5:17And the next one is going to hurt me.
5:20It's going to hurt me more than it's going to hurt you guys.
5:24And it's Bucky Irving, who just cannot have a single person in the fantasy and NFL space say anything nice about Bucky.
5:30Say something nice about him. His name, he plays for the Buccaneers, and his name is Bucky.
5:35And you guys want to tear him down. I think that's bullshit.
5:39He is the RB23 right now, going 48th overall and falling.
5:42And we know why, right? The shoulder injury from last year is lingering, it sounds like, or at least he hasn't fully
5:48recovered from it, which was a big problem, not just for getting him on the field, but once he was on the
5:55field, Sean Tucker vulturing goal line opportunities, Rashad White vulturing goal line opportunities, wasn't getting the same passing work that he had
6:01in the previous part of the season. And then the second half of that is that everyone is wish casting Genneth Gainwell
6:07to be the best bet of any running back handcuff that's going to, or not just handcuff, you know, two or one
6:14B, depending on how you look at it, to eat the starter's lunch.
6:18And I'm look, I'm not here to totally say you can write that off.
6:22I mean, he did that to Jalen Warren. I think Jalen Warren's an excellent running back.
6:26I guess, you know, I just wonder if actually, before we get away from that, that was happening in the Arthur Smith
6:33scheme and Arthur Smith did that to be John Robinson.
6:36So if he's capable of doing that to be John Robinson, it doesn't surprise me that he's capable of doing that to Jalen Warren.
6:43Now we get into, you know, a whole different scheme down here in Tampa Bay.
6:47And so, you know, there's a little this and that I can come about it, but here's what I want to talk about when it comes to Bucky.
6:55When I look back at how much volume Bucky generated, even after coming back from injury, 113 touches from week 13 through 18, that's almost 19 per game.
7:03That was fifth most at the entire position behind an offensive line that was brutally banged up.
7:08They had got, I don't think they, I think they were one of the only teams last year, if not the only
7:15team that I don't think they had their entire starting five play a single game together.
7:20At the same time with a quarterback who was brutally banged up with a play caller who would not get a job.
7:26Even if his dad's last name was Shanahan, it was just a horrible, horrible combinations of thing.
7:31And he still handled that much volume. What if game well just absorbs white's role and maybe some of Sean Tucker's role.
7:37Cause Sean Tucker is just kind of fancy as a mere white.
7:41Could Bucky still get those 19 touches per game and RB 23.
7:44Is anyone else around him projected to do anything close to that on an offense that could be projecting top 10 again?
7:51I think let's look at them. Deandre Swift. Not if Kyle Minungai is going to be the, you know, this next coming
7:57of David Montgomery, Trevion Henderson, fuck off. Uh, Quinn Sean Jenkins.
8:00I could see him getting 18 per game purely through rushing.
8:04Uh, but first of all, it's on the Browns offense, which is where, uh, which is where these guys go to die at some point.
8:11David Montgomery is probably the most likely in this range to get that many touches per game.
8:16But what's that ceiling like on a Texans offense, not writing him off.
8:20I think I'll probably be drafting a decent, if not a lot, not a lot, a decent amount of David Montgomery this
8:26year, just because, um, you know, I actually do think the Texans offense could bounce back year two in this scheme.
8:32But, uh, I think that we're seeing a ceiling for David Montgomery.
8:36That's not there. I don't think he has RB one potential, like a couple of these other guys, if it breaks right
8:42might, unless he scores a bunch of touchdowns. Um, so yeah, so Bucky, Bucky was averaging five receptions per game prior to
8:49his injury in the early part of the season.
8:51He's got the same quarterback. Mike Evans is gone.
8:54Offensive line should be rocking and rolling. Zach Robinson comes in from Atlanta where Bijon had 175 targets over the last two years.
9:01I know, and I probably agree that Gainwell is expected to take some from this, you know, this passing attack.
9:06But what we know about this Bucks offense, there will probably be room for multiple pass catching running backs.
9:12So be nice to Bucky. He deserves it. Chuck Bass is in the house.
9:16Jamie, as always, you know, I like to give you a little bit cheersies.
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10:13Terms apply. See site for details. Hope everybody's nice and caffeinated on this wonderful Thursday.
10:18I'm heading on a babymoon tomorrow, so this will be my last podcast as a pre-babymoon guy.
10:23Looking forward to having number two this year. But let's get to a guy who wears number one.
10:28And he's a guy who, very much like Bucky, there's just been no positive press about it in a very long time.
10:34Malik Neighbors, who is down 3.2 spots to wide receiver 13, 27th overall, and he is falling.
10:39Which is so funny because you look up here on the player profiler, best comparable.
10:44And his best comp is Jamar Chase. You're just not going to see that.
10:48And that's going to color how we talk about Malik Neighbors here briefly for a few minutes.
10:53So what's the story? Obviously, all the concern here, if not the only concern, really is the knee.
10:58And what his short-term future looks like. The video of him running at the baseball game was very bad, not good.
11:04But let's just try and calibrate the floor and the ceiling.
11:07Because I think, obviously, his health is a major concern.
11:10But there just hasn't been a lot of talk about what does a healthy Malik Neighbors and a healthy Jackson Dart on this offense look like.
11:18Right now, you're seeing him Neighbors go as a wide receiver 13.
11:21And I think that unless we start seeing some positive camp videos, a medical report that sounds nice.
11:26I don't know. Whatever straws we can grasp at.
11:29I think you'll probably see a lot of drafters pass on him for Devonta Smith.
11:33Now that the A.J. Brown trade has gone through, T.
11:36Higgins, Garrett Wilson. So the floor, for that being the case, the floor is probably relatively low, right?
11:42He's either playing at 75% or he's not playing at all.
11:45And it's hard to stomach when you're drafting him around other guys at that turn that could potentially put up 300 PPR points.
11:52And I do think there's a fair amount of them that have that ceiling.
11:56Neighbors ceiling is top three. This is a guy that could easily get there if he's back to peak health.
12:01And I just don't know if as the team stands, if there's even another target earner on the roster.
12:07They're just target donors. Jackson Dart will be donating targets to these guys.
12:11He will not. They will not be earning them.
12:13Mooney is a nice space guy. Likely is a little bit more sizzled than steak.
12:18Scadaboo is out here doing backflips, which, you know, painkillers will allow you to do that.
12:22What happens when that wears off? The team re-signed OBJ, which I think is a huge boost of confidence for everyone else on the roster.
12:30It's like a running back room signing Alexander Madison.
12:32It's like, okay, good. Good for everybody else. Your job is safe.
12:36I'd say at the very least, Neighbors is in the same target earning situation he was in 2024 when he broke the rookie record.
12:43And I think it's still like a top 40 season all time for targets.
12:47All right. Well, what else would you be concerned about then, right?
12:50Would you be concerned about Dart? Sure, that's a fair thing to be concerned about.
12:55He plays like a madman, which is fun. And he runs like a madman, which is fun for fantasy.
13:00But if you're concerned about like, you know, like Jaden Daniels, right?
13:04Like what if something happens to my quarterback and I'm in a Terry McLaurin situation or a Garrett Wilson situation, right?
13:10Well, this team probably has the number. This is the only team in the league where if the starter got hurt, I
13:16would raise the wide receivers rankings amongst everybody else.
13:19Because Jameis Winston is on the bench ready to go.
13:22I mean, he got Pete. Jameis got people drafting Jerry Judy in the sixth round last year.
13:27I honestly, even at this moment, if Jackson Dart got, I don't know, he got assassinated for introducing Trump at a rally
13:33and Jameis had to be the next man up.
13:36Like I'm pretty sure that there would be zero change in my Malik neighbors ranking.
13:40It might even shoot up a little bit. So I'll close out with this.
13:44I actually think if neighbors falls into the late third or even the early fourth rounds drafts, you want to take a
13:51big fat swing on him because I'm not discounting the seriousness of the injury.
13:55And that even makes me hesitant to take him at ADP right now.
13:59If he's on ice until late October or even playing himself into form, you've got guys in the late middle rounds, though,
14:05that I think it can supplement some of that production.
14:08You've got Michael Wilson, Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison, Ricky Pearsall, all guys going in around seven through nine where you traditionally want to hit on running back.
14:16But running back is so top, so top heavy this year.
14:19It really makes like it's it makes Sidney Sweeney look like a Chinese Olympic gymnast.
14:24It is the guys at the top and then a bunch of dudes.
14:27I don't want one second of a wide receiver, you know, because of, you know, talent, because of pass heavy teams, because
14:34of just the way the cards shake. Sometimes wide receiver is actually relatively deep in that middle class.
14:39So I like a little bit about there. And that would make me less worried about taking a swing on neighbors, knowing
14:45what we currently know right now on June 4th.
14:48So that's how I feel about that old boy.
14:51Let's take a little ad break here. And when we come back, we'll talk about some middle round guys that are taking a tumble.
14:58You know, I get asked, is AI ruining fantasy sports?
15:01And the answer is absolutely not. We've had consensus rankings available for a long time.
15:05But people subscribe to the player rankings at playerprofiler.com for super flex, tight end premium, best ball, even offensive line rankings.
15:11Of course, your rookie rankings, your dynasty rankings are all available in the ranking service for playerprofiler.com.
15:16Password protected so the bots can't get to it and you can maintain your edge and use code podfather for five dollars off.
15:23Woo. It's a good deal. Who is out here not looking to maintain their edge?
15:27What more could you want? What more could you guys ask for?
15:31All right. DJ Moore. We said mid rounds. DJ Moore.
15:34He's a mid round guy right now. Wide receiver 24, 54th overall.
15:37Going behind Jalen Waddell, Jamison Williams. Going ahead of Christian Watson and Mike Evans.
15:41When I look at DJ Moore and his situation here, best comparable player right there, Pierre Garcon.
15:46That's how I feel about this. This is like the Ghostbusters reboot, right?
15:50Like you loved Bill Murray. So what? Who is Stefan Diggs?
15:53Now you love yourself some Melissa McCarthy who is DJ Moore.
15:56But the magic comes from the player, not the script.
15:59And I just don't think we're getting a script that says quality is the original here.
16:04I was really high on DJ Moore after the trade because I think I was just really high on that day in general.
16:11But I've cooled off a little bit. And now look, if he's your flex play, I think I probably have no problem with it.
16:18If you want to take a swing around like the 5-6 turn, once you start getting into, you start losing guys who
16:24have a chance to lead their team in targets and you start getting the like high fun upside guys.
16:30But if you're one of those guys also who takes a swing at tight end or quarterback early or hell, even both
16:36if you're an insane madman and you've got more as an anchor player, this is one of like your first three or
16:43four picks and he's going to be like holding down your lineup for the season.
16:47I think you're going to be sorely regretting that pick for most of the year.
16:51I don't like it when a fourth banana becomes a first banana and he was the fourth banana on the team last year.
16:58Look, there's no way around it. On a team that didn't even pass for 4,000 yards and that's not a shade on
17:04anybody else or anything in the organization. I just I would have liked him coming off of a little bit of a hotter season with momentum.
17:12I guess there's a little bit of like nobody believes in me, which could be fun.
17:17And this is a team that, you know, a team that needs to build some momentum because as good of the as
17:23good as the bills have been, it does feel like they're in a rut.
17:27Now a rut for them is, you know, making it to the final eight every year, sometimes final four and then, you know, dropping the ball.
17:35Sure, that is what it is. But this offense, it's just not really primed for him to just step in and fill some sort of need.
17:42Stefan Diggs had 160 targets in his last bill season and he was 29, which is the same age that DJ Moore is now.
17:49But I just don't think that he more is near the route artist that Diggs was at that time.
17:55Last year alone, we're looking at 40th and target separation, 74th in first downs per route run, 72nd in yards per route run, 74th in EPA.
18:02And that was like I said, that was on an offense that was the toast of the town last year.
18:08Nobody, nobody could get enough of Ben Johnson and what this team was doing.
18:12And now you look into it a little bit and Caleb might have been a reason a lot of these metrics are
18:19a little bit inconsistent because he's an inconsistent passer.
18:21But we're trying to just focus on what more can bring to Buffalo.
18:25And that's a tricky spot. He gets comped to Debo a lot, which I think is dumb, maybe because of the stupid ass.
18:32We're going to use him in the Debo Samuel role.
18:35There it is again. The role strikes again. He's a much better route runner and he's got better hands.
18:40I just think this year, the production that he's going to be providing your fantasy lineups is going to be closer to
18:47Quentin Johnston, which is not a bad thing. I think Quentin Johnston could have a nice year.
18:52Then guys going around him, like I said, like Christian Watson, like Jamison Williams, like Mike Evans, even who I think is
18:58going to be really nice in San Francisco. Hell, even Roma Dunze, if this foot thing can chill.
19:03But this is a Bills team. They were the second most run heavy team in the league last year and they spread the ball out like crazy.
19:11So I guess I just wonder, you know, like how much not only how much better is he going to be than
19:18Khalil Shakir, but what does this offense actually need from DJ Moore that Josh Allen wasn't manufacturing on his own at certain points?
19:24Now, I know why they traded for him. He certainly is better than Joshua Palmer, better than Gabe Davis brings an upgrade there.
19:31But enough to be going in the fifth round, enough to be going ahead of some of the guys I just named.
19:38I'm not sure. And let's end this so that I can save my ass a little bit.
19:43I can certainly envision a scenario where he's like the wide receiver 12 through 15.
19:47Allen is that good. He crushes some deep balls.
19:50He's excellent in space. And he just he scratches that itch that they've been missing since Diggs left.
19:55Because, you know, Shakir is Shakir. And Kincaid, we don't even know if he's going to play a full complement of snaps.
20:01That's another guy who there's been a lot of negative press about.
20:05But what I don't want for you guys is I don't want you to confuse a New York strip from a cow
20:11that was factory raised in Nebraska for Japanese A5 wagon.
20:14I would just like you to be careful. I do.
20:17I do think that Josh Allen spreads the ball out too much.
20:21And I think that's a good thing. You know, Dak used to be like this before they got him a couple guys
20:27that you just you have to pass the ball to.
20:30And, you know, that's part of Allen's game, right, is his ability.
20:33You know, it is very Caleb Moore or Caleb Moore.
20:36You know, Caleb Williams, a lot of escapability, a lot of scrambling to buy time and throw the ball.
20:42And that's something that Josh Allen has gotten better at every year.
20:45So is Moore's athleticism, as you guys can see in the charts there, it's very high in all those categories.
20:51It's his ability to, you know, make magic after the play breaks down.
20:55Is that going to mesh well with Allen? It certainly could.
20:58It also could not. And, you know, I just I get sometimes I get a little nervous about guys moving teams, although
21:05who's moved teams in the last five years via trades.
21:08Right. DeAndre Hopkins, smash Hollywood Brown, he was a smash early.
21:11He was AJ Brown. He was a smash. Stefan Diggs.
21:14He was a smash. Most of these guys smash.
21:16So it's like, you know, what foot do I want to dip my what what pool do I want to dip my toe into?
21:23I don't know. The other part of this is that I don't know if the team building aspect of the bills buys a lot of fidelity from me.
21:31I don't know if they get the benefit of the doubt, because I think they've made a lot of really poor choices.
21:38And I think this team has just been lifted up by Allen in a very good offensive line.
21:43And I like James Cook as well. So more stay tuned, I guess.
21:47You know, well, all is it going to take is one slow motion camp highlight where DJ Moore catches like a one
21:53handed ball in the end zone for me to be like, OK, yeah, I see the vision.
21:58Maybe. I don't know. Are they getting breakfast together?
22:01Do guys still do that anymore? Is that trope and retired?
22:04I can't tell you. But we shall see. We shall see.
22:07All right, let's get to our last one here, because I just don't get it.
22:12Harold Fannin Jr. is down 9.1 spots from May 1st.
22:15Still the tight end six, but he's dropped from 85th to 96 overall.
22:18I mean, I guess people really believe in Casey Concepcion, who I like.
22:22But year one on this offense, I'm not sure.
22:25Denzel Boston, give me a break. Are these guys that much bigger of a threat to Fannin than Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman were at the time?
22:33Now, long term, obviously, I think both of these players are going to be better.
22:37But last year, is who Casey Concepcion is going to be in 2026 that much better than whatever combination of Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman?
22:44It probably is, now that I'm saying it out loud because they were so bad.
22:49But enough to drop Fannin. Have we forgotten how historic his season was?
22:53Najoku's gone. I mean, he wasn't even that big of a factor towards the end of the year last year.
22:58Have we forgotten how much tight end production is generated from a Todd Monk in offense?
23:03Have we forgotten that the U.S. government knew and might have perpetuated 9-11?
23:07You guys tell me. Now, look, here's the interesting thing about Fannin.
23:10Look at that smile. Usually, when somebody has a season like he does, he gets the super boost in draft boards.
23:17Usually, he's going up near where Colston Loveland is going, right?
23:20That fourth, fifth round. But because of the team he plays for and because of the justice system in Houston, he's going
23:26in the eighth round, which I think is insane.
23:29You know, that's like ex-girlfriend keying your car on the day of your wedding.
23:33Insane. Like, it's just weird for me. And the strange thing about this, like maybe why this is also so hard for
23:39me in particular is that I view that like tier three group of tight ends, which I think is Kraft, Fannin, Laporta,
23:46and Pitts, you know, on a really, really, really long bender.
23:49I could maybe squeeze Warren in there if I want to get concerned about the Colts passing attack with an injured Daniel
23:55Jones coming off Achilles, all that stuff. I just want one of those guys.
23:59But really, only one of them, I think, if you get Warren out of that group, I think Fannin is the only
24:06one I know for a fact is going to lead this team in targets.
24:10So for him to, you know, be towards, you know, going in the eighth round, sometimes ninth on some of these drafts,
24:16it just makes drafting a tight end early feel really, really, really foolish.
24:20And we don't like to feel foolish around here.
24:23So go get you some Fannin. All right. That was easy.
24:26I like these little 20-minute pods are banging out.
24:29We're just talking about ADP. We're talking about guys going around them.
24:32We're talking about 40-yard dashes and mix a few little this and that's in there.
24:36Hope you guys have a good weekend. This one was short and sweet per use, but, you know, I'm a short and sweet guy.
24:43So let's get back so I can end pro style so we can get Miss Pelosi in the shot.
24:49We can get Groot in the shot. Lovely. All right.
24:52You guys have a great weekend. We'll be doing some more drafts here coming up.
24:56We'll be having some guests on the program and really just talking ball.
25:00All right. Cheers.
