0:00Welcome to a new era of baseball's great spectacle.
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0:10Raw power meets star power. Big swagger meets bigger slams.
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0:16Watch the T-Mobile Home Run Derby live on Netflix this Monday, July 13th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific.
0:22Are all batteries the same? That's like asking if all soccer players are the same.
0:27Take Messi, the most decorated player ever. Is there any other player who has achieved that?
0:32No, just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with power boost ingredients inside?
0:37No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different.
0:40And Messi only trusts Duracell. Welcome to the Dominator.
0:43I'm your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson, the overhyped sleeper.
0:46You can find me on X at overhyped sleeper.
0:49Just drop that final E from sleeper. And today I have a guest who is really making a name for himself on X.
0:56He's a fantastic aggregator of all the news and rumors that matter to us fantasy gamers.
1:01But more importantly, he's been digging into the stats and producing analysis that can really make anybody a sharper drafter.
1:07Zane Danani is with me today. So let's get right to it.
1:11It is time to dominate. All right. Welcome, Zane.
1:13How are you doing? What's going on? I'm ready to be dominated.
1:17Yeah, yeah, there you go. So just just to start with, you know, tell me tell me a little bit about yourself.
1:24Tell our audience a little bit about yourself. How you got started playing fantasy?
1:28How long you've been doing it? Favorite formats, you know, just whatever you want to go into.
1:33Yeah, fantasy has been a part of my life since I was 10 years old.
1:38So that was probably 25 years ago. So I'm 35.
1:41Now that everybody knows that I can run for president next cycle.
1:45But yeah, I've been playing for 25 years, started out on Yahoo, just like friends, league, stuff like that.
1:51Joining Yahoo public leagues. You know, there used to be message boards where you could join a league.
1:56Someone would be like, hey, come into this one.
1:59Like and it was all free at the time.
2:02And then got deep in the weeds with like a home league that we started back then and then just kept that
2:09continuity going about five to five or six years ago.
2:12Decided, you know what? Like I'm so I'm so into this.
2:15I read all the news. I do all the analysis.
2:18And what I'd really love to do is get into like high stakes drafts.
2:23So I started doing the FFPC main event about five years ago.
2:26Won the first one my league the first year that I joined.
2:30And then I started adding more leagues to it.
2:33And then I got into underdog basketball as well and got really deep in the weeds on that.
2:38And I actually won the gauntlet, which is their flagship like playoff tournament.
2:42And then I've been maxing out basketball mania for the past five years.
2:46So, you know, it's just an amalgamation of being a fantasy nut and paying attention to all the news and analytics.
2:53And then it just transpired to where, you know what?
2:56But now I'm going to go out there. I'm going to put my at Danani Zane Twitter handle to work and provide
3:03some news and analytics to everybody else. Love it.
3:06Yeah, it's been like I say, it's been some great stuff that you've provided.
3:10And, you know, I saw you started writing on fantasy points a little bit last year.
3:15And then you're carrying it through this year as well.
3:18Yeah. So it really started. They had a charter job available where you literally like chart the different games and plays and all sorts of stuff.
3:26And I hope Brett Whitefield doesn't mind me mentioning this.
3:29But when I went through that process, he told me that I scored higher than anybody else has ever scored on any of his tests, including himself.
3:37And Brett Whitefield is a like NFL consultant, like kind of guy.
3:41So it really comes down to like viewing the film, understanding like the concepts of what's going on out there.
3:47And I think that's the reason why my content is able to potentially stand out from others is that I have that ability.
3:55And then I have the analytics background. Plus, I read literally everything that's out there.
3:59And I'm just kind of pushing that all together.
4:02I wrote a couple articles last year breaking down the Jaguars offense from a schematic standpoint, like with a bunch of film review as well.
4:10And then merging that with analytics. And then I did the same thing with the Seahawks before everyone was talking about the whole like heavy personnel passing stuff.
4:18And now translating that into this route depth type of work that I ended up doing this past summer so far a
4:25couple weeks ago and outputting that as something that, you know, I don't think has really been explored.
4:31It's like what routes people are actually running, how deep they're running, and how that translates into fantasy value.
4:37Yeah, I think it's a great piece, and I think it's just kind of a really nice way to look at the
4:43wide receivers in a different sort of light. Because, you know, there's just been a lot of, you know, well, you know,
4:50he goes deep, so he's a great late round shot in a best ball league.
4:55And, you know, while that might or might not be true, you know, you want to look and see are there any
5:02better players that I could be drafting instead of this guy who's just sort of a deep merchant.
5:07So why don't we just kind of dive right into that article?
5:11I found it really intriguing, and I'll put my screen up here.
5:15Yeah, I think the applications to this are wide too.
5:18So it's not just kind of like, I think you can apply a lot of this back to both Redraft, Dynasty, and Basketball, PFS.
5:25Like, I think this applies to every single format, really, that's out there.
5:29Because the way that it's constructed is thinking through the season-long value that the players have, but then also thinking about the
5:36individual weeks that people have when it comes to, like, spike weeks and stuff, too.
5:41And I think this analysis can really help people through all of those different aspects.
5:45So really what I tried to understand through all of this process, but my initial take here was when I was looking
5:52at the data and trying to understand what's going on with Brian Thomas from last year, I realized that he started running a lot more deep routes.
6:00They turned him into a deep threat once they got Jacoby Myers.
6:04And so that was my initial, like, thesis behind, obviously he had an injury, but also my initial thesis behind, well, is
6:11he in a favorable fantasy role in general? Like, what are they doing with him?
6:16How are they using the player? And then after that, I started digging into the data more and understood that, you know,
6:22there's these different, like, route depths that people are running.
6:25And what it actually ends up translating into is differential in fantasy value from an average perspective and then spike week perspective as well.
6:33So when I'm explaining this, there's short routes, and those short routes are going to be nine yards or less.
6:39And then there's intermediate routes that are 10 to 19 yards.
6:42And then there's deep routes that are 20-plus yards down the field, right?
6:47And so if you think about it, if someone had three total routes and they ran one of each, they would have 33% of each.
6:54And it's not that common that people run, like, a 40% or something deep, deep roll.
6:59Most people run shorter often because that's just, like, the time that people have to throw the ball.
7:05But on any individual play, you could think about it as there's usually, like, five eligible route participation players.
7:11And there's probably one guy that's running deep, two guys that are running intermediate, and two guys that are going short, right?
7:17And so your average, if you're kind of just, like, rotating within those five, like, route concepts or depths, is going to
7:24be, you know, one-fifth or one-fifth, right? And when I started breaking down the data, thinking through, like, okay, what is, like,
7:31too much when it comes to running deep? And what I found was roughly, like, 20% to 25% is where you start
7:38getting into the point where these players are running deeper, and it's not necessarily translating into as much fantasy value.
7:44And the inverse of that is true as well, right?
7:47So if they're running deep, and so those are, like, the big impacts that end up happening.
7:52Shorter passes are easier to complete, which is why that matters, right?
7:56So, like, on a completion percentage basis for quarterbacks, one, they're more accurate throwing shorter.
8:01And then the completion percentage on, like, a nine-yard pass versus a 20-yard pass is going to be, like, 70% versus, like, 30%.
8:08So if you're running more of those deep ones, you're unlikely to get the ball as often.
8:13So if you're running more of those types of target test, you're likely to be able to get further deep, you know,
8:20a 20% for duration, when you're running longer, you're always running more of those hunting times.
8:25So if you're running more of those комментар Lords, you're going to be able to get the ball out, you're going to
8:32be able to get the ball out. And then, like, the road ones, you're going to get the ball out, right?
8:38but your opportunity is really not just the targets.
8:41It's being on the field and running a route.
8:44So I always think about it that way and saying like, all right, well, we care about route share.
8:50Why don't we care about the depth that they're running in as well?
8:54So that's kind of like the breakdown of what I was kind of like thinking through throughout the process of making sure
9:00like this all kind of made sense for fantasy and then translating it back into like which players I like based off of all this analysis.
9:09Yep. Totally makes sense. Okay. And you found. Then if we go down to like the average.
9:14Yep. No, you go for it. Okay. Yeah. I was just going to say then that that brings us into this average depth of route sweet spot.
9:22Tell us a little bit about that. Yeah. So the interesting thing that I found here is that if we're looking at
9:29like the top, you know, five ish wide receivers every single year in fantasy, they're usually sitting between an average depth of
9:36route between like eight and 11 yards. So that means that they get enough easy button things.
9:41They get enough deep things and enough intermediate things that keep them like relevant on a game by game basis.
9:47Right. And, and some of that has to do with like, Hey, you're a focal point in the offense.
9:53So we're going to do things like give you screens.
9:56We're going to do things like have you just run like a quick drag route and then you're dynamic.
10:02You're going to go like make a, make a big play.
10:05Um, but it also has to do with the fact that they use them in sporadic ways to send them deep.
10:12And when they do that, a guy like JSN last year who ran deep, maybe like, you know, 15 to 17% of the time.
10:19I mean, think about all the times that he ended up scoring deep touchdowns last year.
10:24It's because they were able to mix it in more than just saying like, Hey, this is your role and you're going
10:31every single time, like down the field. Um, so that like sweet spot is kind of where you see the biggest like fantasy game.
10:39Uh, but it's more valuable to be less than if you're going to be, if you're going to go up on the
10:45scale, like above the 12, it's less valuable. And if you're below the eight, that's still valuable.
10:51It's just, um, there's just like a more like nuanced role.
10:54We see guys like Debo Samuel sitting in that, like, you know, seven to eight yard depth of route.
11:00Um, and then I wrote about this in the article too.
11:03Khalil Shakir is kind of a mixed bag when it comes to this, because he has like two of the historically like
11:10smallest, like average depth of route, uh, roles that he's done in the past two years.
11:15So I think there could be like a theoretical drop-off point and his has been like five to six yards, which I
11:22think is maybe just like too short to be a guy that spikes.
11:26But, you know, if you're looking for just a guy that's going to like get, you know, something like seven, eight to
11:3310 points, like he could get you that. And then I'm looking at like the, the deep routes here.
11:39You can see some of the names that I pointed out in this article.
11:43Um, Alec Pierce, who's been in this like more deep zone of 12 to 16 yards average depth of route.
11:49Um, he's been in that zone pretty much his entire career.
11:52Uh, and his, I think his eight out last year was like 19 something, um, which was by far the most.
11:59And guess who the second most was, uh, if I make some season splits, it was Brian Thomas Jr.
12:05Um, so you can kind of tell where I'm going with this when it comes to like roles and how they matter for fantasy.
12:12Um, even when you break down the data for Alec Pierce, uh, it's not that his fantasy, like he, we think about
12:19it as like, Hey, this guy got a thousand yards, scored like six or seven touchdowns.
12:24Um, his spike weeks were maybe like two or three weeks out of the season in general.
12:29And like, you think when you're drafting him, you're actually getting a guy that's going to spike like four or five or
12:36something times, but it's not the case. It's, it's the, it's the guys that are kind of sitting in this like short to intermediate zone.
12:44Yep. Totally makes sense. And, um, so as you, as you're doing all this research, um, this was all half PPR.
12:50Is that correct? Yeah. So I was looking at this from a half PPR perspective, mainly because I know that people are
12:57right now, people are drafting on underdog and then the same concepts apply back to PPR because, um, you know, that reception is worth more.
13:05So the short depth guys get more receptions. Um, the, the sporadicness of this and the, uh, the variance that you would
13:12see in this next chart that we're going through would actually be bigger when you look at it from a full, uh, PPR lens.
13:19If you took away the PPR, it would still lean toward the short, uh, depth players, but you know, that would like
13:26shorten the, the, uh, variance between the two. Yeah, totally makes sense.
13:30So yeah, the more, the more points per reception you're getting, uh, the, the more it kind of skews things towards those,
13:36those players who are picking up a lot of receptions, you know, which tend to be the short and intermediate stuff versus
13:43the, the deep reception or the deep, uh, ball players who are, you know, as he, as we go back to this,
13:50um, you know, receptions per route run, uh, you know, the, the short is 20%, uh, intermediate nine and the deep, you know, 0.05.
13:57So you're looking at basically four times as many receptions per route on the short as you are at the deep.
14:04So all of that, you know, if you're putting a half point on, that's, you know, that's one thing, but when you
14:11put one point on, uh, it just multiplies the effect of it.
14:14So, uh, that's, that's one of the things I really, uh, took out of it is you, you know, you've just got
14:21to be able to get those numbers of receptions.
14:24If you're playing in a full PPR format, um, you know, we, we always talk about PPR scam players, but, um, you
14:31know, they're, they're a real thing and, and, and it is something that you can rely on.
14:36Everybody likes to just say, oh, it's a PPR scam and they just want to, you know, kind of sweep it under
14:43the rug is that's not really relevant, um, to, you know, like a normal wide receiver, but it really is.
14:49Yeah. And then when I was looking at it from like a, kind of like a more DFS angle or spike week
14:56angle for, uh, best ball, since that's what I'm, I'm deep in the weeds on.
15:01Um, and this was my original intent for this entire article was literally thinking about this from a Brian Thomas perspective.
15:07Um, it just came back to the fact that, you know what, I want to see like what the smash weeks look
15:14like the boom weeks, the spike weeks, like the useful and bust weeks and see like what, what this like mix looks like.
15:21And then I also want to take out like even the top, like, you know, the top, the people that go in
15:28the top two rounds and see if this all makes sense.
15:31Right. And so every time I like paired back the data and said, Hey, I'm going to take out, um, your Pukas
15:38and your JSNs and whoever else that sits in that, like first and second round, um, this same like pattern existed.
15:45And, and you would, you can see it like the smash weeks are 5.8% from a short route depth player versus 2.8%
15:51for a smash, uh, smash for a deep route player.
15:54And so like, while that is only a 3% difference, it is double.
15:58Um, and that really, really does matter when you're looking at your DFS lineups because you're looking for that increased edge, um,
16:05in any way that you can, right? Like smash 25 plus point week is huge for DFS.
16:10It's huge for best ball. Um, and then you look at the boom weeks and it's also double.
16:16And then you look at the spike weeks and it's close to double.
16:20And then, you know, even the bus and the, the, the distribution of all of this ends up being where you start
16:27seeing patterns where, Hey, this guy's going to hit my lineup.
16:30People are worried about zeros in, um, in best ball.
16:33And these short depth guys are going to be more useful and they're also going to boom more.
16:39And that's like the biggest takeaway that I ended up having.
16:42Yeah. I think that's a, that's a super important takeaway.
16:45Cause one thing that I really started thinking about it.
16:49And after I read this article is, you know, really what it is, is we're, when you get a reception, you know,
16:55for however many yards, maybe it's got a touchdown, maybe it doesn't, but you've got basically from the line of scrimmage to
17:02where that player gets tackled or until they get to the end zone, that's what's available to you for the points.
17:09That that player can score. But it's just so much easier to, you know, if you, if you can catch that ball
17:1510 yards past the line of scrimmage and then you run another 50 and get the touchdown, you know, I don't know
17:22if that's easier or harder, but you're gonna, you're gonna get, even if you get tackled, you're still getting that, that point for the reception.
17:30You're getting the 10 points for the, or the one point for the 10 yards.
17:35So you're getting two points out of it no matter what.
17:38Whereas the guy who's going deep, he might eventually get that 60 yard touchdown, but how many throws is it going to take?
17:45How many throws are actually going to be receptions?
17:48You know? So you, you basically, what you're doing is you're adding up all those single points for the reception and a
17:55PPR or half points per reception and a PPR that gets you on down towards the end of the field, but it's
18:02not like, you know, if you, you only throw the ball 10 yards, it doesn't stop the receiver from going the rest of the way on his own.
18:10If that makes sense. No, it does. And, and see, like, that's why kind of this like, um, concept of getting the
18:17ball within like five, six, seven yards, the line of scrimmage, um, like Rasheed Rice, super valuable.
18:22He's not even a great separator when, when I look at our fantasy points metrics or anything like that, but just sits in holes.
18:30And the, the offense is basically PPR scamming him.
18:32And what he's good at is he's good at creating yards after catch and you get more yards after catch when you
18:39do these short routes because the defense is naturally dropping back a little bit.
18:44Um, but he's got a little bit more wiggle than even your like average player.
18:48Um, so he can turn some of those, you know, five yard receptions into 15 yard receptions.
18:54Um, and they, they use him a lot in the red zone too.
18:58And I think it's a skill, right? Uh, when guys are getting open short and they do that so often, that means
19:04that they can do that in the red zone as well, where they're sitting five yards underneath and they're finding little holes
19:11and creases, uh, in the red zone. And these deep guys aren't used to having to do that.
19:17And so you get even more touchdowns out of these short route depth players as well.
19:22And that's, that's kind of like the Rasheed Rice type of thing.
19:25And even like Amin Ross St. Brown sits into that same like kind of realm where it's like, Hey, one possession, he
19:32can get five receptions in one possession where that get him 50 yards where like an 80 Mitchell type, which I, I'm, I'm still into 80 Mitchell.
19:41Don't worry guys. Um, 80 Mitchell type who's just running deep, uh, would do that on one play.
19:46But when you're looking at PPR, you want the five for 50, like instead of the one for 50.
19:52So I think it's, it's all relative and valuable.
19:55Yeah. Yeah. That totally makes sense. Um, all right.
19:58We got to take a quick break for a commercial.
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21:54All right. And we're back. So, so Zane, I thought that was an interesting point you made just before the break, you
22:01know, about like a Rasheed Rice and how he can get open in short areas.
22:05And, you know, I think that's, that is really a skill and that's, that's why I hadn't really thought about it.
22:12In, in how they, you know, these short area players do get more valuable because, you know, a lot of, a lot
22:19of times the, you know, the deep route specialists, they tend to be the ones who are like, you know, if they're
22:25going to get the ball in the end zone, it's sort of a high point situation or, you know, dragging across the
22:32back of the end zone or something like that.
22:35Whereas those pay, those players who can work open right at the goal line or just, you know, just behind the goal
22:42line or just in front of it, you know, open up a whole different area of the field for the quarterback to throw to.
22:49So it makes a lot of sense to me.
22:52Yeah. You play in that more like specialist type of role where you're getting the short, short routes.
22:58And, and then you're used to creating the yards after catch.
23:01If you catch it at the five yard line and you're a short route guy, you're more likely because we see this
23:08with the yak distribution to the guys that actually are deep threats.
23:12I didn't put this in the article. Guys that are the deep threats are worse at yak to even on the short
23:18routes because they don't get that opportunity as often.
23:21And so when you're, when you catch the ball up the five yard line, a guy like Rasheed Rice is more likely
23:28to score the touchdown when he catches up the five yard line versus a guy like in the neutral just because of
23:35their skillset when it comes to breaking tackles and yak.
23:38Yeah, totally makes sense. You know, cause you know, the deeper balls, the quarterback, you know, it, a lot of times they
23:45look even a little bit more accurate than they are because some of their accuracy is just the wide receiver down the field adjusting to the ball.
23:53And, you know, when you're, when you're having to do a lot of adjustment to the ball, it kind of ruins your momentum.
24:00You know, as far as being able to, you know, make yards after the catch.
24:05Whereas when you're on these short and intermediate routes, especially if you're moving, you know, across the formation, which is why I
24:12really like players who do a lot of end breaking routes because they're, they're continuing to move and they're at such a
24:18spot where the quarterback can hopefully lead them, you know, where they don't really have to break stride or else they just
24:25have to break stride a little bit to catch that ball and they can keep right on moving.
24:31So, you know, all these things kind of explain why our short area and intermediate area wide receivers, I think are, are
24:38the better choices when you, when you have the option.
24:41Yeah, exactly. And, you know, I tried to look at it by ADP too.
24:45So I talked about this already where I said, I stripped out like the top two round guys just to like see how this methodology plays out.
24:53So, you know, you don't, I think some of it is priced into ADP where the deeper, deeper route players are somewhat cheaper in fantasy.
25:01But you start seeing them show up more in this like round four through like, and then beyond area.
25:07Whereas the, some of like the premier short route guys are, are still like in the first three rounds, but there's still
25:14a mix of players that are short rep route guys in the round four through whatever range.
25:19And then there's also, so that's where you start doing the comparison and trade-offs, right?
25:24Where you start thinking through like, okay, I'm at my draft seat right now.
25:28So if I'm looking at it, if I'm staring in down the barrel and seeing a Brian Thomas, who's for all intents
25:35and purposes going to be a deep threat again this year, based off of all reports that I've put out there and
25:42his metrics from last year, what they did with him once they got to Kobe Myers.
25:47You're sitting there and you're thinking about, okay, I've got Brian Thomas on the board.
25:51And then there's another guy that's on the board that comes a little, like a little bit later in like Josh Downs,
25:58who's more of a short area guy and that I expect to actually be more of a full-time player this year.
26:04And you think about the trade-offs and you're like, well, I can just take Josh Downs and like two rounds and take
26:11a running back here or take one of the elite quarterbacks or something like that.
26:16Right. So that's like the, the methodology that I'm starting to play out in my drafts right now, when I'm thinking about
26:23how to like make this effective for myself and then, you know, for all the listeners.
26:28Yeah, that totally makes sense. So, so I'm curious when you were looking at this average depth of route, I assume that's
26:34basically the same thing as average depth of target, right?
26:38No. So the target average, average depth of target is on the place where you actually get targeted.
26:43Average depth of route is every single route that you run.
26:47So if you're running a split and you don't get targeted, if you're running a go route and you don't get targeted,
26:53those are factored into that as well. It's a, it's a, it's a little bit of a more like new metric, something
27:00that I'm able to create through my fantasy points contribution.
27:03But I think it's something that, that if, that we're going to be exposing and talking through for the rest of the
27:10season to make sure that people are, are able to understand which players roles, if, if at all switching roles.
27:16And then, and how that, that's going to apply for the rest of the season.
27:21If there's guys that you may want to drop or guys that you want to pick up because of the role changes that we end up seeing.
27:29Okay. Yeah, that's, that's great. That's an interesting thing.
27:32So is average depth of the route, is that something that's available right now on fantasy points data?
27:38Or is it something that you have to kind of work towards?
27:41It will be exposed a little bit more soon.
27:44There are different ways to get it. You'd have to pull like multiple reports.
27:48I think what we're trying to accomplish is just making that kind of like a one report, one stop shop type of thing.
27:56Um, you know, there's going to be updates to the fantasy points data suite that's going to happen, uh, later this, later this month, uh, or early August.
28:04And, uh, and, and that's going to give people access to being able to like explore this type of analysis a little
28:11bit more and, and, uh, more on top of that as well.
28:15Nice. Nice. So how sticky is average depth throughout year over year?
28:18Have you done any looking into that? Yeah. Yeah.
28:21So I was looking into that because I wanted to understand like, okay, guys change teams, right?
28:26We've got Jalen Waddle who's going from, uh, his role in Miami, uh, to his role in Denver.
28:32Um, and what happens when players change teams? Now we have less players that are like worth a lot in fantasy that change teams.
28:39Um, so it's a smaller sample, but generally the route depth sticks with a player, regardless if they change teams or stay
28:46on the same team, or if they have a coordinator change or whatever ends up happening.
28:51Um, it's kind of like, this is your specialty role.
28:54You are this type of player and that kind of sticks with you.
28:58The times that it happens a little bit less often, even it stays, it usually stays with the player throughout their career,
29:05but the times that it happens a little bit less often is, uh, people that are really early in their career.
29:12Right. So like year one, you know, there's a guy, there's players that end up doing like, Hey, I've got, I just
29:18got to fill the X receiver role for the season.
29:22Uh, but then they develop into a different type of player, uh, the next year.
29:26Um, you can almost think of like, they ascends actually a decent example.
29:30He wasn't a deep threat necessarily his first year, but he wasn't getting all these like easy button targets underneath.
29:36And then, um, you know, they get, they get rid of, uh, some of their other players with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
29:44And, uh, and now he's kind of like the focal point in the offense.
29:48They try to design like short area stuff for him.
29:51Um, so that, that's, that's one example. I think you could see like even a Mecca, Imbuca is like a decent example.
29:58He had to step into an X receiver role last year, um, when Mike Evans went down.
30:03And so that changes his route depth, um, instead of being more of the Z or slot receiver where you're going to
30:10get this short to intermediate stuff more often. Um, so, and this year he's expected to be more of the Z receiver,
30:17um, maybe spelling, uh, Chris Godwin in the slot when, if Godwin were to go down or, uh, if Godwin's taking like a breather too.
30:24So those are kind of like the situations that I'm, I'm thinking through for, for these players, like early, early career guys,
30:31you know, you got to kind of think through like, uh, what's happening.
30:35And then I was also thinking about it for guys that have like big departures or if there's overlapping skill sets in
30:42a team, like has two guys that kind of play a similar type of role.
30:47So I actually tweeted this out, um, maybe yesterday or two days ago, I was thinking about this for Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, right?
30:54They didn't play that often together. They weren't on the field that much together, um, running routes.
31:00They had about a 52 route sample together. And when they did, Christian Watson was the deep threat and Matthew Golden was the more like intermediate threat.
31:08Um, whereas when Matthew Golden wasn't on the field, Watson was doing a little bit more of the intermediate.
31:14He was still a deep threat, but he was like less of a deep threat than he was.
31:19So I'm trying to translate that back into like what's going to happen for this year.
31:24And I'm struggling because I didn't write about him in this article as a fade because I'm having a tough time actually
31:31wanting to fade him knowing that I, I still think that he's like a really good player.
31:36Um, and has like capabilities beyond what he's been asked to do.
31:40Uh, so what I did was I stuck to the guys that I really felt were the guys that I want to
31:47fade in the article because I'm confident that their role is going to stay constant.
31:52I'm confident that, uh, that their situation isn't going to play out in the way that I actually want it to play out for them.
31:59Um, and then there's like fringe guys that I was, I was like a little bit nervous to write about that.
32:06I, if I wanted to be super bold, I would have put them in the article, but I, I didn't want to
32:13be as bold as I probably should have. Yeah.
32:15I don't know. I mean, I think it's, I think it's good to kind of go at it from the direction when you did it.
32:23Well, these are the players I'm confident about. And, you know, we, we can play the wait and see game with some
32:30of these, pardon me, with some of these other players and see how they turn out.
32:35Um, you know, since this is a relatively new concept that you're looking at, uh, you know, a little bit more data,
32:42a little bit more nuance, um, is only going to help us figure out how to use it better because, you know,
32:49with, like with anything, uh, context is king and every player has a lot of different context around them.
32:54So, um, and, and also I too. The interesting thing about it too.
32:58Um, I was just going to say the interesting thing about it too, is that, um, you know, the charted data from
33:05fantasy points is from 2021 to 2025, right? So that's like five seasons worth of data.
33:10Um, the issue with that is that this too high, like Vic Fangio type of offense or sorry, defense, um, that is
33:17basically designed to keep people from blowing the top off of the defense is pretty much the era that we've operated in since the charting data was available.
33:26And so you kind of have to put that into context too.
33:29Are things changing with the NFL meta? That's going to make this like less relevant that deep threats might, might, might actually
33:36like come, come back into play as like true big spike week players or, or something like a Randy Moss, or I'm
33:43thinking about, about him and how like this guy would have, you know, five cat.
33:48If I remember correctly, it was three catches versus the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in 1998 for 164 yards and two, and two touchdowns.
33:55Like that kind of thing existed. And now it does not as often.
33:59And so what I'm trying to understand is whether that's going to change.
34:03And I actually think defenses are leaning heavier into this Vic Fangio style of the two high shells and making it a
34:10little bit more confusing, making quarterbacks need to get the ball out quicker to these short route route guys.
34:15So that's like the other application that I've been thinking through with, with all of this too.
34:21Should we talk about the targets and fades a little bit?
34:24Yeah, let's, let's definitely do that. You know, cause I, I I'm with you.
34:28I had a hard time, you know, looking at this data.
34:32One of the first players I thought about was Christian Watson.
34:35I was like, I don't really want to fade that guy.
34:39So, but what I can mention a couple of players that I didn't put in the article that I think might fit
34:45these profiles of people want like a, Hey, this guy might be in here, but I just didn't want to put them on paper.
34:53So you guys can check out the article and read more about the individual players.
34:58And we'll, we'll talk about all of them here, but the guys that fit into this bucket that I wasn't certain on
35:04from a deep perspective that I would potentially fade.
35:07Amos and Williams, a deep threat. But, um, and notably like the first half of the season last year, he played that
35:14role more and then Sam Laporta got injured. And then Dan Campbell took on play calling.
35:19And then like his role changed a little bit, um, and became more of a focal point in the offense.
35:25So that's why I kind of left him out was they have a coordinator change with Drew Petsing.
35:31Um, not exactly sure how they're going to deploy him versus, um, Sam Laporta.
35:35I mean, he's probably still going to be the deep threat, but at the same time, like maybe Isaac Tesla, since he's
35:42the, the, um, going to be like the X receiver, uh, maybe he, he does more of the deep stuff.
35:48And then Jamison Williams does a little bit more intermediate that keeps him more relevant and focused in the offense.
35:54So I didn't necessarily write him in. Um, and then the other part about him is that you can get burned by,
36:01by fading him because we saw what happens when Sam Laporta gets injured.
36:05We saw what could happen if Amon Ra were to miss time.
36:09Um, and then you're sitting in a situation where like this guy ends up being a round three value the weeks that those guys are out.
36:17And you're just kind of scared to like end up being in that position.
36:21So it's hard to fade a guy that's going to be on an offense that throws for 4,500 yards.
36:27Um, those offenses are fewer and far between these days.
36:30Yeah. And especially with a guy like, uh, like Jamison, who's got that skillset that is, you know, very malleable and he can, he can be used intermediate.
36:39He can be used deep. He can even be used shallow.
36:42Yeah. And then the other guy that kind of fits into this, um, that I'm somewhat now, now I feel like his
36:49ADP is, has moved up enough to where I I'm probably comfortable putting him in the fade category.
36:54Um, but it's Quentin Johnston. So at the original time when I started writing this, I think his ADP was in the
37:01nineties and now he's in like the seventies on underdog or something.
37:05Uh, and it's all because some of these news reports that have come out that are saying like, Hey, he's going to
37:12be in a yak friendly, like role. Um, so we're going to do some more like short area stuff and whatnot.
37:18And they want to get the ball out in 2.5 seconds.
37:22Um, uh, the chargers do. And so like thinking about him, he's been a deep threat his entire career, but the, like
37:29you listen to Matt Harmon, you listen to even guys from fantasy points that are like doing some of the separation, like charting and stuff like that.
37:37They miscast him in like this, this X receiver role where he should be running down the field and just like kind
37:44of trying to get open on like a, on a go route instead of, Hey, we're going to throw this guy like
37:50a drag route or a screen or a slant and get him really involved in this offense so he can break tackles and take, take his distance.
37:59Um, coming out, his profile is more of like a Debo Samuel type rather than like where they've deployed him.
38:05And so I'm a, that's why I like, I'm a little bit worried about, cause this is one of those situations where
38:12a coordinator change, um, and all the coach speak that's coming out about them doing like these, um, yak heavy, get the
38:19ball out in 2.5 seconds type of stuff turns into maybe he's not a deep threat this year.
38:24Maybe they, they put Trey Harris into that role whenever they go in 11 personnel and they try to keep him in
38:31lad kind of like short and intermediate instead. And so that, that was, that's my main concern with him.
38:37Um, I don't think he's a great pick right now because he's moved up to too close to other guys that I just like taking.
38:45Um, but back when he was going to the nineties, I felt like, man, this, this guy could, could actually do a lot.
38:52And then it was, it was good to like stack him up with, uh, Justin Herbert too, which you could take Herbert
38:59first and then take, um, Quentin Johnston right after that.
39:02Yeah, that definitely made a lot of sense. Um, and I've been off of, uh, Quentin Johnson for the same reasons as
39:08you basically, um, since he's moved up so far, you know, where he was going was, was pretty acceptable.
39:14But at this point, it's like, it's, it's pretty hard to click that button with some of the other names around him.
39:21Um, curious. So, so, um, we're avoiding Brian Thomas Jr.
39:24Pretty much assuming that he keeps that deep role.
39:27Does that mean we should be all in on Parker Washington?
39:30Or do you think that there's going to be just too many wide receivers involved here?
39:35This is the million dollar question that everybody keeps asking.
39:38Um, and the interesting thing is that Parker Washington doesn't have the short role either.
39:43He doesn't have the deep role, but he's more of like the intermediate target.
39:47Jacoby is the short guy. Parker Washington is both short and intermediate with a little bit of deep.
39:53He kind of operates at all three levels, but not enough as a deep threat.
39:58Um, and then Jacoby does more so just short and intermediate.
40:01Um, and then Bretton Strange is short and intermediate too, uh, for the most part.
40:06Um, I, this is one where I, I moved my take to, yes, I would rather invest in Parker Washington.
40:12Um, but the reason why is not because of his depth.
40:15It's because of the role in the offense where he's pretty much guaranteed to be the slot receiver and Liam Cohen's offense,
40:22which has produced players that have put up elite fantasy, um, numbers in that specific slot role.
40:27And, you know, a lot of people are wondering, like they drafted a tight end, um, in the second round.
40:34Uh, and then they got cozy old two and round, like, I think it was five.
40:38Um, are they going to do more like 12 and 13 personnel?
40:42And my take on that is that everything that I'm reading doesn't point to them doing it enough more for it to really matter.
40:50I think they did it like 20% of the time last year.
40:53Maybe that kicks up like three, 4%. And that's just going to be, that might be like one route per a player, you know, uh, in a game.
41:02And so I'm not, I'm not really that worried about it.
41:05Um, I think those are more like long-term investments, especially as these receivers potentially, um, leave the team over time.
41:12And I, I think Parker Washington is going to get an extension.
41:15So I think he's going to be here for a while.
41:19Um, he's a guy that's going to be turning 30 at some point soon.
41:23And then they could potentially think about that. Um, if they want to get Travis Hunter more involved in the offense, um,
41:30they have the opportunity to do that by potentially, you know, there's been a lot of chatter about trading Brian Thomas.
41:36Um, if he's able to put up some good weeks, maybe they do something like that.
41:41They, they actually did explore it this off season.
41:44So it's not like too far fetched for that to, to actually end up happening.
41:49Um, so I think the 12 and 13 personnel is something that will potentially happen, but it'll just be, um, something that
41:55could be like a 20, 27, like more uptick, uh, that, that I'm, I'd be more concerned about.
42:01And then people are also probably wondering like with Parker Washington, is he going to play outside ever?
42:07Is he going to play in, in two wide receivers sets?
42:10Liam Cohen literally talked about this. He said he called him an out, a good player on the outside and on the inside.
42:17Um, and that wasn't talking about like his, his drive and his grit, like his heart.
42:22I was talking about him on the spot and, uh, and on the outside, like as a, as an outside receiver.
42:29I mean, if you look at the metrics, I think I broke this down on X too, but he actually had a
42:35higher targets per route run as an outside receiver, um, and yards per route run.
42:40It was pretty close to being the same. Uh, but it just proves that, um, you know, and he played equally outside
42:47and, and, uh, in the slot last year that he has that capability.
42:51Um, so I think once his contract extension comes into play, which I think will happen near training camp, uh, and they're
42:58saying it'll be close to the Jane Reed deal where it's like 16 or once that happens, I think his price is
43:04going to go up even more because that, that will show the long-term commitment, um, and monetary value that people are going
43:11to say, well, crap, this guy is like a big part of their plans.
43:16Um, so yeah, I would invest in him now.
43:18Yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense.
43:21And, you know, the, the wide receiver I'm least interested in investing in probably, um, is Jacoby Myers just because he doesn't
43:28have the same sort of dynamism, dynamism that, uh, Parker Washington does after the catch.
43:33I mean, uh, you know, I, I, I think Parker Washington has proven to be a much better player than, uh, what fantasy gamers expected him to be.
43:41Uh, you know, certainly over the last 10 weeks of last year, but I know a lot of them are just considering
43:48that, well, I'm, you know, that, that was just a short-term thing.
43:52It was because, uh, Travis Hunter was injured or whatever.
43:55And, you know, I just don't see it that way at all.
43:59Um, and I'm with you on the 12 personnel.
44:01I think they probably did that more to improve the running game.
44:05And I think that's where it's going to show up more often for Jacksonville.
44:09Um, especially if they can get a lead late, you know, going a lot more towards 12 personnel and being able to close out the game.
44:17But I think the main thing it did was it just allowed them to, you know, if they've got, uh, uh, you
44:24know, a, a much better Y tight end, then they can shift, uh, strange out to the F tight end and they've got superior blocking ability.
44:32And also they've got a guy in strange that can be a threat in the passing game.
44:38So, you know, defenses can't play it as straight run either.
44:41So I think that's what they were probably looking to do.
44:44Yeah. I think, I think I mentioned this. I think I mentioned this a little bit in our pre-chairs.
44:50So I did like data charting last year for, um, fantasy points.
44:54A lot of this comes back to like my film background and just being able to like analyze and see what's going on.
45:01And I, that was one of the reasons why I decided to do it.
45:05Um, and I did a lot of the Jaguars games actually wrote a big article on breaking down their film last year.
45:12And one of the things that I noticed was, I mean, when they did do this, like just thinking through, like they
45:19had Quentin Morris, I believe lined up in that like blocking role.
45:23Um, which that guy, you know, has no athletic bones in his body, doesn't present any sort of like receiving threat, um, for the offense.
45:31And so what I think they wanted to do is like, let's, what if we changed Quentin Morris to a guy that
45:37if we like leaked him out a couple of times, like Nate Bowricker is a good athlete.
45:43He didn't have great like receiving stats, but he's a good athlete.
45:46So they, they can theoretically like at least leak them out on some play action plays and like get some, you know,
45:53get something out of that spot instead of like nobody paying attention to Quentin Morris.
45:58And I think that's like kind of the situation that they're trying to put them in.
46:03Makes sense. Makes sense. Hey, it's Bill from the Bill Simmons podcast, FIFA World Cup 26 fans.
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46:57So what do you think about just moving on to some other teams?
47:01How about the Panthers? Ted McMillan versus Jalen Coker or even throw in Xavier Leguette if you want.
47:07Yeah, so I'm not even certain that, based on reports, I'm not even sure that Xavier Leguette will be their wide receiver
47:14three, at least for the entire season. And notice I said wide receiver three, which means that Jalen Coker is their guaranteed wide receiver two.
47:22When they go into wide receiver sets, it'll always be Jalen Coker.
47:25I believe last year they were in pre-wide receiver sets on pass plays for like 79% of the time.
47:31So they're not even going to do a two wide receiver set that often anyway.
47:36But if they do, Jalen Coker will be on the field.
47:39He's pretty much going to be an every down player for them.
47:43And so will Ted McMillan. The difference between the two is obviously that Ted McMillan had 1,000 yards last year.
47:49He did it in a big sample size throughout the season last year.
47:53And he has the draft capital and Jalen Coker doesn't.
47:56Jalen Coker has the contract that they just gave him.
47:59They operate kind of in a different way, different spaces.
48:02Ted does go a little bit deeper sometimes. Not always.
48:06He's not a deep threat. He operates at all three levels of the field.
48:10And Coker kind of stays more like short and intermediate, which to me is more obviously a little bit more valuable.
48:16And then we ended up seeing kind of how it played out in the playoff game where Jalen Coker was, he was,
48:23obviously they were using him as the secondary receiver, but the Rams decided we're going to commit all of our resources to stopping Ted McMillan.
48:31And it's very possible that we see defenses do that.
48:34So their stats, their stats actually might end up being more closely aligned than most people would like to think because of
48:41the way that defenses will shift things a lot towards Ted McMillan this year.
48:45The problem is that I don't foresee the Panthers being this like dynamic passing offense that gets more than even like 3,600 passing yards this season.
48:53I think last year Bryce Young had roughly like 3,200 off the top of my head, something like that, which makes it
49:00really tough to support too many weapons in that offense.
49:03The good thing is that they don't really have any tight ends or anybody else that's going to eat into it too much.
49:10So you're basically talking about two guys consolidating a lot of that, a lot of that offense in general.
49:16Projection wise for Jalen Coker, I would say you can expect something between 600 to 800 yards.
49:21That's a wide range, but that's where I would kind of see him fitting in.
49:26And then Ted has obviously the higher ceiling because he is the better talent.
49:30I'll just, you know, nobody, that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
49:34But he's also dealing with a little bit of a foot injury and he was dealing with that at OTAs.
49:40And he's had a history of a foot injury that dates back to college that I don't know everybody knows about that.
49:47I'm a little bit concerned about because it seems like it's more of like a stress reaction type of thing.
49:53Um, and so I'm a, I'm a little bit scared where he sits right now.
49:58Um, uh, at like a third round ADP or, or like early fourth round where whoever he's falling to at this point in time.
50:05Um, that he's just a, like, I don't see the ceiling of him getting to 1400 yards where you're trying to, when
50:12you're taking a guy in that third, fourth round range, you're hoping that he could be a second or first rounder.
50:19I just don't see it happening for him this year, even though he has the talent that mostly comes down to like
50:25pass yards and what that offense can do. But I can see a way that Jalen Coker like pays off his ADP,
50:32um, by getting like, you know, if you got 800 yards out of 120 or 130 ADP, that's, that's pretty good.
50:39Yeah, definitely. And Coker is also a good, uh, weapon in the red zone as is Tep McMillan.
50:44Um, you know, both of them are, I think kind of the path for Coker is it really needs to be pretty
50:51heavily consolidated, uh, between the two wide receivers, not a tight end of consequence, not a third receiver of consequence.
50:57You know, we're looking for Chris Brazil to be playing, you know, kind of sacrificial Alex, um, Leggett to just not really be that much of a factor.
51:06And if, if that happens, I think it works for Coker because, you know, teams will be shading their coverage more towards Tett.
51:13Um, you know, and, and I'm right with you on Tett.
51:16I just, I don't see how I can see him paying off his ADP, but not, you know, becoming a smash pick or anything like that.
51:24Uh, you know, and in that range, I'd just rather take this, the players that I feel like can be smash picks.
51:31Um, how about the, um, one of the trade-offs, one of the trade-offs I actually have in my article is Tett versus, um, Garrett Wilson.
51:39As I wrote about Garrett Wilson, um, where he's kind of sat in this, that ADOR, the average depth of route sweet
51:46spot every single year of his career and has been a short area guy for every single season of his career.
51:52Um, so that, that mix for me, like, I know, you know, you could say almost similar things about Gino in some
51:59ways, like his floor of getting to 3,200 yards is definitely possible.
52:03Um, especially with Frank Reich, like nobody knows how this is going to end up playing out.
52:08Um, but the way I see it is that one, I think that Garrett Wilson is a more polished player at this
52:15point in time in his career than Tett McMillan.
52:18Two, he runs a more friendly, like, route distribution tree in terms of depth and then what he actually runs, like slants and stuff like that.
52:26Um, and so my thought process on him is, you know, there was a lot of people that have put out, like, O-line rankings recently.
52:33Um, I think only one place had the Jets ranked pretty low.
52:37Uh, but, but Gino Smith is notably way better when he's not under pressure.
52:41Um, and last year he was under pressure all the time.
52:45Their offensive line was quite literally one of the worst, uh, offensive lines that you've seen, um, in the past, like five years.
52:52And so I think with a little bit more time to throw, you're going to see, um, a guy like Garrett Wilson really stand out this year.
53:00I'm not worried about all the weapons that they added in the first round.
53:05I think those are, those guys are good players that could like support your, could support the team this season, but they still need some development.
53:13Like Sadiq isn't a guy that's going to go out there and get a thousand yards his first year.
53:19He's not a Loveland style type of guy. Um, and same with Omar Cooper.
53:23He's not like a, a, this is like a rookie that's going to go out there and get a thousand yards immediately type of player either.
53:31Like these are two guys that need maybe a year of development before they're able to be a thousand yard type of players.
53:38So I think this is the year to buy in on Garrett Wilson, given like the environment as a whole for him.
53:45Yeah, I think that definitely makes sense. Uh, we've got a question from, uh, one of the viewers, uh, asking how about the commanders wide receiver room?
53:53Do you have any thoughts on that Zane? Yeah, uh, it's a part.
53:57So right now I think I watch a lot, like, so I read a lot of news and then I also watch
54:04a lot of fantasy content to keep myself like abreast of what, what the market is feeling, what people are thinking.
54:11Um, if you look at rankings across so many different websites, people have Terry McLaurin ranked higher than, um, his ADP pretty much across the board.
54:19And most fantasy analysts will tell you that he's a really good pick right now.
54:23And at the moment, I kind of agree, but he goes around guys that I really, really like.
54:29And then I also think that they're super live to add a difference maker, veteran wide receiver, like Stefan Diggs.
54:35Um, from all reports that I've read from the athletic to ESPN, um, they're doing wide receiver two by committee at the moment.
54:42But every time you read an article, it brings up Brandon Ayuk, who now I think is not going to be in the mix.
54:50And then it brings up Stefan Diggs and Stefan Diggs is in this article too, as somebody that I think is still
54:56a really dynamic weapon, uh, someone that can take away from a guy like Terry McLaurin because he is that good still.
55:03Um, so I'm a little bit scared at his cost right now, because if they do sign Stefan Diggs, he's going to drop in, in ADP.
55:11Um, and he goes right next to a guy that I wrote about in this article too, Jalen Waddle that I really, really like.
55:19Um, and so that's why I'm, I'm still a little bit scared to take Terry McLaurin at this moment in time compared to where, what his cost is.
55:27If you were to fall like past DJ Moore, so maybe like five, six picks, like half a round, I'm still, I'm good with taking him.
55:35Cause I think that's probably around where he might end up going if, um, if they do sign Diggs.
55:41Um, but right now it's just, it's not the area that I want to be drafting in.
55:46And if you're talking about the other receivers in the receiver room, um, Antonio Williams, uh, Traylon Burks, uh, those other guys
55:53that are out there, I think they have Deami Brown.
55:56Um, it's, it's a mix of, it's just a mixed bag at the moment.
56:01Um, I do expect them to be in 12 personnel more often.
56:04And so what that does is take away that slot role.
56:08Um, and by all accounts, it sounds like Antonio Williams is more of like that slot role right now.
56:14Uh, so that means that that's going to take away from Antonio, uh, Antonio Williams, uh, route share.
56:19Um, so that means that you're going to get more Bensonat, uh, along with Chigo Conquo.
56:24Um, and so my, my actual favorite pick of all of these commanders, uh, weapons, uh, if you include the tight ends, um, is Chig.
56:32Because I think he's going to set a career high on his route participation.
56:36Um, if I had to guess, so I think his career rate is roughly like 55%.
56:41If I had to guess, I think he'll be north of 70, which is really, really strong for a tight end, especially
56:48for a tight end that's going later on. Um, now I'm not saying this is a guy that can get a thousand yards.
56:55Like that is very few tight ends, but it's, could he in a really strong situation, um, end up with 800 yards?
57:02Yes. I think that's, he's totally live to get 800 yards this season.
57:06And that would be a really strong payoff at his cost.
57:09I think he's going at like 140, 145. Yeah.
57:12Yeah. Something like that. So it, it, it definitely makes him intriguing, uh, you know, and plus if he's getting anywhere close
57:19to a hundred targets, which would likely be the case if they don't add anybody to the wide receiver room, you know,
57:26I, I think, you know, the, the digs thesis probably has more effect on Chig than it has on, uh, McLaurin.
57:32But, you know, I think it's fair to say, uh, you know, McLaurin will definitely go a little bit cheaper.
57:38And for that reason, um, I've also been kind of, you know, not, I'm, I'm still taking him some, but I'm not
57:45taking him unless he drops just a little bit from where he normally goes.
57:50So, uh, but Chig is the one that I've been kind of just taking if he falls a little bit and he's
57:56somebody that if I see they don't add a digs or somebody like that, then I'm going to start jumping into a lot more.
58:04And just, uh, from that, have you taken a look at the tight end position through the this lens at all?
58:10Or is that anything that you're thinking about doing at any point?
58:14The tight ends don't run deep as often. Um, but if you do think about it from a tight end perspective, there's
58:21guys like Kyle Pitts in 2023, um, who they effectively put in a deep route role.
58:26Um, and the biggest comparison that I have for him is Terrence Ferguson from last year.
58:31And Terrence Ferguson was a, um, you know, not a full-time player last year, but he had basically like a 35% route participation in 2025.
58:38Um, all reports about him are that they're kind of viewing him as their wide receiver three in this offense at the
58:45moment, if they don't sign like a veteran free agent.
58:48Um, and so him being a wide receiver three for them, he's going to, the way that they're thinking about deploying him
58:55is kind of similar to how Tutu Atwell was deployed, which we know is more of like the deep route, like sacrificial somewhat type of role.
59:03Um, and so Terrence Ferguson kind of fits more of the Kyle Pitts profile of what happened in 2023, where Kyle Pitts ran a lot of routes.
59:12Um, he was on the field a lot for, for the, for the team, but he was a big fantasy disappointment for
59:18everybody because he only got like 600 yards. Um, now 600 yards for a, if you're looking at best ball specifically, and
59:25you're thinking about Terrence Ferguson in round 18, that's a great pick from a tight end.
59:30But if you're thinking about like redraft, uh, is this guy going to be on my lineup?
59:35Am I going to be able to count on a week to week?
59:39No, it's going to be super volatile. Um, and he's going to bust more often than not.
59:45Maybe he'll have one or two spike weeks this entire season.
59:48Um, and that's worth it as an 18th round best ball pick, but it's so much of a headache for managing.
59:55Yeah. So if you do, there's, there aren't too many like deep threat wide tight ends that end up coming into play.
60:01But if there are some, um, the one that, that stands out right now is Terrence Curtis.
60:07Makes sense. All right. Um, let's circle back around to the rookie.
60:10Somebody was asking about Makai Lemon, uh, earlier in the show.
60:14Um, does your research lead you towards drafting any of the rookie wide receivers where they're going in drafts or are you
60:21just waiting to see what happens on them? Uh, so, you know, I've, I'm maybe famously somewhat fading Carnell Tate.
60:27Um, but I will say this, my perspective on fades aren't that I'm not going to take this guy like ever.
60:33I'm building a portfolio. When I draft, I'm building a portfolio.
60:37If I had one draft, I would not take Carnell Tate.
60:40Um, I think the talent is immense. Uh, I think the situation is, is not good for fantasy currently.
60:46Um, if anyone's following me, you can, you can tell based off of some of my Titans tweets, uh, that one, I
60:53believe that he's going to be in more of that X receiver role.
60:57I would, I wouldn't say that he's going to be a 25% plus deep threat player.
61:02Um, but in college he was really good at the deep plays.
61:05Like that, that's one of the traits that were really attractive about him.
61:09That doesn't mean he can't do the intermediate and short stuff too.
61:13Um, but when you look at like the players around him, it kind of shows you what the different players might end up doing.
61:21Right. So they added Wondell Robinson to a sizable contract in the off season.
61:25Um, Wondell Robinson is normally a shorter, uh, average depth of route and average depth of target player.
61:30Um, so he's going to operate in more of that short and intermediate role.
61:35And then if you look at the O-line rankings that every single person has, um, and if you just read the tea
61:42leaves of, Hey, they've got like three interior lineman positions.
61:45Um, that are kind of up in the air.
61:47Uh, you should be scared about that offensive line for the Titans.
61:51And when it, when you have poor offensive line play, especially from on the interior, you end up seeing quick pressure and
61:58quick pressure usually means getting the ball out play.
62:01Right. You look at players that have a 2.5 second, like, uh, passes within 2.5 seconds.
62:06Um, that's when you start to see guys basically lean into this like short play role.
62:11Um, and that's what you're going to get Wondell Robinson.
62:14If projection wise, if you're just like thinking about it, stratifying it in my head right now, um, I think Wondell and
62:21Carnell Tate basically will get the same amount of yards.
62:24And it just depends on, and I don't want to be a hot take artist, but I actually think that they will
62:31get roughly the same amount of yards. You're talking about a guy that goes, you know, at pick one 20 or something
62:37or one 15 versus a guy that's going at like 65 or 66 or something like that.
62:43So that's the one where I'm like, these two things just kind of don't, don't match up for me as well.
62:49Uh, I don't know if you have a question on that though.
62:53Cause like, I know the guy asked about McKay Lemon.
62:56I'll get to him too. But, um, if you have something to say on Carnell Tate versus Wondell, I'm open to it.
63:03No, I think that, I think you're looking at it the right way.
63:07And, um, you know, the way I look at it is Wondell, you know, if they get to the same number of
63:14yards and it's going to be a smash for Wondell because he's going to get so many more receptions on the way.
63:20Unless, uh, Colonel Tate just happens to be, you know, a huge touchdown monster somehow.
63:25Um, so I'm, I'm with you there. Um, yeah.
63:28What about, uh, McKay Lemon, uh, Jordan Tyson, any of those guys?
63:31Yeah. So with McKay Lemon one, I think this, this could be a little bit of a hot take to people too,
63:38but I think he's their primary slot player. Um, so, uh, what does that mean from a fantasy angle?
63:44Uh, I'm not a hundred percent sure that he will be on the field in every single situation.
63:50Now they spent a first round pick on him.
63:52Does that mean that they're guaranteed to give him like, uh, you know, every single down, every single route roll.
63:59I actually did an analysis on this, this off season.
64:02Um, and for the most part, these guys end up getting 70% route shares at some point in the season.
64:08Um, it's these like, like 20th, like 19th, 20th round 20th, like area picks, like, uh, like a McKay Lemon.
64:14A lot of it still starts out early where they're doing like 60% route shares, um, and then eventually getting to 70 ish.
64:21The problem is, is that, um, I think that this team wants to be in two tight end sets sometimes too.
64:28Uh, they added, they changed coordinators to Sean Mannion.
64:31Um, Sean Mannion is coming from the Mike, uh, the, uh, Matt LeCleur, uh, offense where they do a lot of tight, two tight end sets.
64:39They added Eli Stowers, who I think is going to be more of a like very short time player, but they'll probably
64:45try to find specialized situations for them to get him into the game.
64:49And he'll probably end up being in like that slot role.
64:53So he's going to share the slot a little bit with Eli Stowers.
64:57And then I think Dontavian Wicks is the outside receiver.
65:00Um, uh, and so that, that like scares me when it comes to a playing time perspective, like there's fewer and fewer receivers.
65:07Someone asked this in the chat too earlier, I saw it.
65:10Is it true that wide receiver two is dead?
65:13I wouldn't say always, but there's fewer and fewer receivers that are getting to 70 plus percent route share every single year.
65:20Um, we're seeing teams deploy rotations, uh, people putting people in specialized skill sets.
65:24Um, and so I'm worried about it. The good thing is, is that I do expect him to be in the short role, right?
65:32Uh, comparative to Dontavian Wicks, um, and others. The only problem that I have with that is that the, the fit with,
65:39um, Jalen Hurts, um, attacking the middle of the field.
65:42Jalen Hurts is notably like way better when it comes to targeting the outside, like beyond the hash mark, like receivers, mainly deep throws.
65:49He's one of the guys that you're like, well, maybe I want to lean into the deep threat a little bit more.
65:56Um, and so that, that's what scares me off of, uh, uh, off of McKay Lemon.
66:01Um, again, I said this earlier, but I want to caveat some of these things that I ended up saying that my
66:08general thesis around this is that you can't, if you're doing a portfolio, you can't feed every single player.
66:14Um, that's early round picks because you never know when you need a guy like McKay Lemon, who let's say Tavonta Smith
66:20is out and they just have to put them in at like a Z receiver type of role.
66:26Um, and he's doing a bunch of different nuanced things.
66:29You don't fade that because you're going to end up, if you get 2% of him, like that team could still end
66:36up winning because of the role that he ends up having when it matters in, you know, week 15, 16, 17.
66:42But for the most part, when I'm building a portfolio, what's the most likely thing to happen?
66:48That's when I'm starting to like fade guys a little bit more.
66:51Um, and McKay Lemon would, would fit into that profile a little bit for me.
66:56Yeah, that makes sense here. You know, I think when the season starts, it just basically is, you know, like a, a
67:03giant 50 car pileup on the freeway. You know, you just don't know exactly what's going to happen once the season starts.
67:10And there's so much chaos going on that, you know, you know, we think we have everything solved, um, you know, in
67:16July and August and early September, and then all the season, the season starts and we see guys in different roles than
67:23what we expected or injuries changing the way that teams go about, um, attacking, you know, the defense.
67:29There's just so many different things that can happen.
67:32And if you, if you go into it, I think with, um, with your mind made up too much and that I'm
67:38going to hard fade, you know, a whole lot of players and I'm going to really be super heavy on, uh, a
67:45few players, uh, that can end, that will probably end up burning you unless you just happen to be incredibly lucky.
67:52Yeah, I completely agree. Um, the other thing with, with Makai Lemon is that, uh, you know, I actually noticed this before
67:58even the beat writers noticed this, but I saw a clip of him with a sleeve on his leg and I knew
68:05that I did not see him with a sleeve on his leg in previous practices.
68:10And it turns out he was missing practice that day with the hamstring issue.
68:14And I speculated that, uh, before anyone else got to it.
68:18And I don't like seeing rookies start, start off with any sort of soft tissue things.
68:23He's going to be fine for training camp for the start of training camp.
68:27But, but now you just know that there's like some twinge there.
68:31Um, and this next guy that we're talking about too, Jordan Tyson also has the same issue.
68:36Um, and that's my scare with him. I think that he's, he's actually the rookie that I would target out of any
68:43of these guys, um, that we're talking about between him, Makai Lemon and Carnell Tate.
68:47I think he has the chance to do, uh, have the biggest like role, biggest like effect in fantasy, uh, could be
68:54a smash, all that kind of stuff. The only concern with, uh, for me with, with, uh, Jordan Tyson is whether he can stay healthy.
69:02Um, and I do think that he would more so take on that intermediate, um, and short role than a Chris Olave.
69:09Chris Olave is like a premier, uh, somewhat deep threat.
69:12They, they've allowed him to do like the intermediate and short a little bit more than like your typical deep threat.
69:18But he's a really good, deep, deep wide receiver.
69:21Um, and now that they have like an actual, um, useful wide receiver too at play that doesn't, doesn't necessarily do it the same way he does.
69:29Like they had Rashid Shahid with him before. And so like, even him had similar talents where you're kind of saying like,
69:36Hey, we're going to send you on a, on a go ball.
69:40Um, and now you've got Jordan Tyson who can operate in like tighter spaces and do kind of like the short area stuff, a true like slant God.
69:49Um, I can see Chris Olave working deeper or often this year with Jordan Tyson, taking more of the short intermediate stuff
69:55on slants and different things like that. And so I, I really liked Jordan Tyson.
70:00I think he could be a really good pick.
70:03We just need him to be healthy. Um, and we don't know if that's going to be the case, but.
70:09I like hearing that though, because I've been very strong on Jordan Tyson this entire off season.
70:14And the only thing that's been stopping me from hitting the button even more often is that the hammies and, uh, just
70:21worried about the, you know, the possibility of injury.
70:24Uh, one, one more quick one before we get you out of here, but, um, any interest in either of the Cleveland rookie wide receivers?
70:32Yeah. So the, the, the reports out of camp have been really interesting.
70:36Um, I actually think both are really good talents.
70:38I think Casey conception was probably drafted five to 10 picks too late in the real draft.
70:44I think that he is a really good, strong, really good receiver.
70:47I'm less, um, from a talent evaluation standpoint, I put way less value on being able to catch the football than most other people would.
70:55Um, because I think that's a really like, um, there's only a few players that you're like, this guy drops the ball way too much.
71:03Um, and even like, if you look at drops year over year, uh, they don't always translate to the same players.
71:09There are players that we think about like Dontavian Wicks and A.D.
71:13Mitchell where we're like, these guys can't catch the ball.
71:16But for the most part, guys that drop the ball, like are usually okay, catch the ball in most situations.
71:22Um, so I'm not as worried about that with him.
71:25And then Denzel Boston, I also thought was a first round talent, um, this year, uh, was a little bit surprised that
71:32he fell because the importance that people, the premium that people put on, uh, first round wide receivers, um, or that people
71:39put on receivers in general in the NFL. And the contracts that we're seeing for even a guy like Alec Pierce, who
71:46truly does run like wind sprints a lot in the game.
71:49Um, and so I thought that Denzel Boston would have, would have been a first round pick.
71:54So I think both of those guys are really good talents.
71:58Now, when we go to the reports of what happened at a training camp, um, they, they really liked Denzel Boston as an outside receiver.
72:06Um, and so I think that, and I do think that this team is live to do some, you know, 12 personnel type of stuff.
72:13Uh, with Todd Monk and, uh, at the helm.
72:16So I think that if you're targeting one of them, he is going to run more routes than Casey Conception this year.
72:23That's for the full season. Now, if you're looking at it, when you're talking about like mid to late season, do we
72:30think that Jerry Judy eventually kind of goes away by the wayside?
72:33Definitely by end of season. I think that's, what's going to end up happening for Jerry Judy.
72:39Uh, because I don't think this team is going to be competing for anything significant.
72:43Um, and so when you get close to the end of the season, you start seeing these veterans kind of like, all right, I've got a little bruise.
72:52I'm sitting for, for this week. Um, so I think Casey Conception might be like the, the guy, the guy you want for the playoffs.
73:00But if you're looking for who's going to get like a 75% plus route share, like right out of the gate, it's going to be Denzel Boston.
73:08If I had to, if I had to guess right now.
73:12Yeah, that's, that's interesting. I find myself, uh, definitely taking some Denzel Boston.
73:16I've been getting some, uh, Casey in there, um, when he drops and Jerry Judy, for the most part, I haven't been
73:22interested in, in him unless he really drops. Because I think the only way he's going to really be relevant past the
73:29first few weeks of the year is if they end up trading him to a different team.
73:34Um, I just don't see it otherwise. I think they've got to focus more on their future and I just don't see
73:41Judy as part of the Browns future. I completely agree.
73:44And I've, I'm also probably the only guy out here.
73:47I'm not a, I'm not a Shador Sanders fan by any means.
73:51Uh, but I do think that he raises the, um, floor for these receivers if he is the quarterback, because he is
73:58not afraid to just throw the ball up into like triple coverage and make tight window throws.
74:03And just like YOLO balls is exactly what he does.
74:06Um, and I think that that can translate to random spikes.
74:10Like you think that, do I think that Deshaun Watson is going to get 350 passing yards in a game?
74:16I don't. Do I think that Shador Sanders will probably not, but I actually think that he has a stronger chance of
74:23doing it because he's not afraid to just launch it and put it into like really poor situations.
74:28Terrible, um, NFL quarterback. Could be something that's worth something for fantasy.
74:32It's like, it's, it's like a Jameis Winston light situation where you're like, all right, Jameis through like 27 interceptions one season with like 28 touchdowns or something.
74:41I don't remember the exact numbers, but I could see a situation where in one game, Shador has three touchdowns and three interceptions.
74:48And that's just what ends up happening. And, and, and that's what we want to see for fantasy.
74:53We want guys that are going to put things in, uh, in traffic and let their players like make plays and, and
75:00be unafraid to just get rid of it. Yeah.
75:03Jameis is the dream fantasy quarterback because he's a one man fantasy carnival.
75:07He's, he's just making points for everybody, making points for the defense, making points for his own team.
75:12Uh, we, we love to see it. So, all right.
75:16Well, Zane, uh, I appreciate you joining me today.
75:18Um, we'll go ahead and get you out of here.
75:21Normally we try to keep the show down to about 60 minutes or so, but we're, we're going long because it's been so good.
75:29So we appreciate that. Remind us again where we can listen to you and find your work.
75:34Yeah. So I've got two things. Um, my written content you can find on fantasy points.com.
75:39Uh, most of my articles will end up being free.
75:42I am going to release something that I've been tracking through camp along with stats that go and support or don't support those, uh, those news blurbs.
75:51And then, um, I do have my own, uh, YouTube channel.
75:54Um, the cut up show is what you can find.
75:57Um, yeah, where I'm streaming it from the, from there right now as well.
76:01Uh, and then you can find me on Twitter at Danani Zane also.
76:05Awesome. Awesome. And for my audience, uh, thank you for watching or listening.
76:09Uh, make sure that you're hitting the like button.
76:12Uh, it's free. It's easy. And if you can leave a review wherever you happen to be consuming this show, uh, make sure you're tuning in too.
76:21Next Thursday, I'm going to be talking to Jared Smola.
76:24He's another great data analyst and a very sharp drafter.
76:27Uh, so looking forward to that as well. My goal is always to bring you to the best and brightest of the fantasy football world.
76:34So make sure you subscribe to the player profiler network on YouTube and your podcast provider.
76:39You don't want to miss a single show. That's it for this week.
76:43So until next week, get out there and dominate your drafts.
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