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The Dominator - Are You Drafting the Wrong Wide Receivers?

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 11, 2026
Published
Sat, July 11, 2026
40
Player insights
33
Players mentioned
Topics
Jordyn TysonAmon-Ra St. BrownBrian Thomas Jr.Denzel BostonJerry JeudyRashee RiceAlec PierceBrenton StrangeCarnell TateChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian WatsonD.J. MooreDeebo Samuel
Player analysis

Player insights

40

Alec Pierce

NegativeRole0:11

Alec Pierce has been in the deep zone of 12-16 yards average depth of route his entire career, limiting his spike weeks to only 2-3 per season despite accumulating significant yardage and touchdowns.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveRole0:19

Amon-Ra St. Brown operates in the short route depth realm, capable of accumulating 5 receptions for 50 yards in a single possession, which is more valuable in PPR formats than deep-route specialists.

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PositiveRole0:36

If he misses time, Jamison Williams could see a significant role increase and become a round-three value, making him difficult to fade despite his deep-threat profile.

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Brenton Strange

PositiveRole0:40

Short and intermediate route specialist in the Colts offense, similar to Jacoby Cowing's role profile.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeRole0:05

After the Jaguars acquired Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas Jr. was turned into a deep threat, running significantly more deep routes, which negatively impacts his fantasy value compared to his earlier role.

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NegativeRole0:25

Expected to remain a deep-threat receiver this year based on reports and metrics from last season, which limits his short-area scoring upside compared to intermediate/short-route specialists.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveProjection17:36

If Carnell Tate and Wondell Robinson Jr. reach the same yardage total, Robinson would be a smash play because he'll accumulate significantly more receptions, unless Tate becomes a huge touchdown monster.

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Chris Godwin

PositiveRole0:30

May see reduced snaps with Mecole Hardman potentially spelling him in the slot, though his role remains relevant in Tampa Bay's offense.

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Chris Olave

PositiveRole17:11

Chris Olave is a premier deep threat who may work deeper more often this season with Jordan Tyson taking over the short intermediate routes, allowing Olave to focus on his strength.

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Christian Watson

PositiveRole0:30

Deep-threat receiver who operated as the primary deep target when on field with Matthew Golden; may see increased intermediate route opportunities if Golden departs, though analyst is hesitant to fade him due to his overall talent and capabilities.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveRole0:19

DJ Moore is mentioned as a player who sits in the optimal short-to-intermediate route depth zone, making him valuable in PPR formats.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveRole0:10

Debo Samuel sits in the optimal 7-8 yard average depth of route range, which is within the sweet spot for top fantasy wide receivers.

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Denzel Boston

PositiveUsage16:52

Denzel Boston is expected to run more routes than Casey Conception for the full season and will likely get 75%+ route share right out of the gate as the outside receiver.

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PositiveValue17:05

Denzel Boston was a first-round talent who fell in the draft, and the analyst was surprised given the premium placed on first-round wide receivers and receiver contracts in the NFL.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveRole0:29

Departure from Seattle created offensive opportunity for other receivers to develop different route specializations within the offense.

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Eli Stowers

PositiveRole17:19

Eli Stowers is a short-time player who will share the slot role with McKay Lemon and be used in specialized situations.

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Isaac TeSlaa

PositiveRole0:35

Expected to be the X receiver in the Lions offense, potentially taking on more deep-route opportunities if Jamison Williams shifts to intermediate routes.

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Jacob Cowing

PositiveRole0:39

Short and intermediate route specialist in the Colts offense; operates at different depth levels than Parker Washington, who is more versatile across all three route depths.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveRole0:35

Versatile receiver who can be deployed at short, intermediate, and deep levels; coordinator change with Drew Petzing may shift him more toward intermediate routes, increasing his fantasy relevance despite being a deep threat last year.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveRole0:28

Route depth profile tends to stick with players regardless of team changes; Waddle's role is being studied as an example of how player specialization carries over when changing teams from Miami to Denver.

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Jerry Jeudy

NegativeProjection16:52

Jerry Judy is unlikely to be relevant past the first few weeks unless traded, as the Browns should focus on their future and Judy doesn't appear to be part of their long-term plans.

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NegativeRole16:52

Jerry Judy will likely fade by the end of the season as the Browns won't be competing for anything significant, and veterans typically sit out with minor injuries late in non-competitive seasons.

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Jordyn Tyson

PositiveBreakout17:11

Jordan Tyson is the rookie the analyst would target over McKay Lemon and Carnell Tate because he has the biggest potential role and fantasy impact, with the ability to be a smash play.

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PositiveRole17:11

Jordan Tyson will operate in intermediate and short areas with slants and tight-space routes, allowing Chris Olave to work deeper downfield, creating a complementary role that benefits both receivers.

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NegativeInjury17:11

Jordan Tyson has a hamstring issue similar to McKay Lemon, which is the main concern preventing the analyst from being even more bullish on him.

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Josh Downs

PositiveRole0:25

Short-area receiver expected to be a full-time player this year, offering better value than deep-threat alternatives like Brian Thomas when considering draft capital and positional scarcity.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveMatchup0:38

When Quentin Johnston was going in the 90s ADP range, stacking him with Justin Herbert was an attractive strategy, though Johnston's ADP rise has made this pairing less appealing.

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Khalil Shakir

PositiveRole0:11

Khalil Shakir has run two of the historically smallest average depth of route roles in the past two years at 5-6 yards, which may be too short to generate spike weeks but could provide consistent 7-10 point performances.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveRole0:30

Intermediate-threat receiver who operated alongside Christian Watson; when Watson was off the field, Golden took on more intermediate routes, suggesting role flexibility.

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Mecole Hardman

PositiveRole0:29

Expected to return to Z receiver role this season after playing X receiver last year when Mike Evans was injured; may spell Chris Godwin in the slot, which should restore his intermediate route specialization.

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Mike Evans

PositiveInjury0:29

Injury last season forced Mecole Hardman into an X receiver role, temporarily changing his route depth profile from his natural Z/slot position.

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Parker Washington

PositiveRole0:40

Guaranteed slot receiver in Liam Cohen's offense, which has a track record of producing elite fantasy numbers from that position; analyst prefers him over Brian Thomas Jr. due to role security despite not being a deep threat.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeValue0:36

ADP has risen from the 90s to the 70s due to reports of a more YAC-friendly role, but analyst is concerned this represents a miscast—Johnston is a deep-threat receiver being forced into short-area routes, similar to a Debo Samuel profile rather than his actual skillset.

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Rashee Rice

PositiveRole0:18

Rasheed Rice is valuable despite not being a great separator because he sits in holes at 5-6 yards depth, gets PPR-friendly receptions, excels at yards after catch, and is frequently used in the red zone.

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PositiveRole0:22

Short-area specialist who is more likely to score touchdowns when catching the ball near the goal line compared to deep-threat receivers, due to superior yards-after-catch ability and tackle-breaking skills.

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveRole0:35

Injury last season led to Jamison Williams taking on a larger offensive role; coordinator change with Drew Petzing may affect how both players are deployed this season.

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Shedeur Sanders

PositiveMatchup17:27

Shedeur Sanders raises the floor for Browns receivers because he's not afraid to throw into triple coverage and make tight window throws, creating random spike games that benefit fantasy receivers.

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Travis Hunter

PositiveRole0:41

Potential long-term investment for the Colts; could see increased offensive involvement if Brian Thomas Jr. is traded, though this is a future consideration rather than immediate impact.

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Tre Harris

PositiveRole0:38

May take on the deep-threat role in 11 personnel sets if Quentin Johnston is moved to short/intermediate routes, creating potential role competition.

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Tyler Lockett

PositiveRole0:29

Departure from Seattle created offensive opportunity for other receivers to develop different route specializations within the offense.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

856
0:00Welcome to a new era of baseball's great spectacle.
0:03The T-Mobile Home Run Derby, live on Netflix. The biggest sluggers in baseball put their talents to the test on All-Star Weekend.
0:10Raw power meets star power. Big swagger meets bigger slams.
0:13And you don't swing to make contact. You swing to make history.
0:16Watch the T-Mobile Home Run Derby live on Netflix this Monday, July 13th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific.
0:22Are all batteries the same? That's like asking if all soccer players are the same.
0:27Take Messi, the most decorated player ever. Is there any other player who has achieved that?
0:32No, just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with power boost ingredients inside?
0:37No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different.
0:40And Messi only trusts Duracell. Welcome to the Dominator.
0:43I'm your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson, the overhyped sleeper.
0:46You can find me on X at overhyped sleeper.
0:49Just drop that final E from sleeper. And today I have a guest who is really making a name for himself on X.
0:56He's a fantastic aggregator of all the news and rumors that matter to us fantasy gamers.
1:01But more importantly, he's been digging into the stats and producing analysis that can really make anybody a sharper drafter.
1:07Zane Danani is with me today. So let's get right to it.
1:11It is time to dominate. All right. Welcome, Zane.
1:13How are you doing? What's going on? I'm ready to be dominated.
1:17Yeah, yeah, there you go. So just just to start with, you know, tell me tell me a little bit about yourself.
1:24Tell our audience a little bit about yourself. How you got started playing fantasy?
1:28How long you've been doing it? Favorite formats, you know, just whatever you want to go into.
1:33Yeah, fantasy has been a part of my life since I was 10 years old.
1:38So that was probably 25 years ago. So I'm 35.
1:41Now that everybody knows that I can run for president next cycle.
1:45But yeah, I've been playing for 25 years, started out on Yahoo, just like friends, league, stuff like that.
1:51Joining Yahoo public leagues. You know, there used to be message boards where you could join a league.
1:56Someone would be like, hey, come into this one.
1:59Like and it was all free at the time.
2:02And then got deep in the weeds with like a home league that we started back then and then just kept that
2:09continuity going about five to five or six years ago.
2:12Decided, you know what? Like I'm so I'm so into this.
2:15I read all the news. I do all the analysis.
2:18And what I'd really love to do is get into like high stakes drafts.
2:23So I started doing the FFPC main event about five years ago.
2:26Won the first one my league the first year that I joined.
2:30And then I started adding more leagues to it.
2:33And then I got into underdog basketball as well and got really deep in the weeds on that.
2:38And I actually won the gauntlet, which is their flagship like playoff tournament.
2:42And then I've been maxing out basketball mania for the past five years.
2:46So, you know, it's just an amalgamation of being a fantasy nut and paying attention to all the news and analytics.
2:53And then it just transpired to where, you know what?
2:56But now I'm going to go out there. I'm going to put my at Danani Zane Twitter handle to work and provide
3:03some news and analytics to everybody else. Love it.
3:06Yeah, it's been like I say, it's been some great stuff that you've provided.
3:10And, you know, I saw you started writing on fantasy points a little bit last year.
3:15And then you're carrying it through this year as well.
3:18Yeah. So it really started. They had a charter job available where you literally like chart the different games and plays and all sorts of stuff.
3:26And I hope Brett Whitefield doesn't mind me mentioning this.
3:29But when I went through that process, he told me that I scored higher than anybody else has ever scored on any of his tests, including himself.
3:37And Brett Whitefield is a like NFL consultant, like kind of guy.
3:41So it really comes down to like viewing the film, understanding like the concepts of what's going on out there.
3:47And I think that's the reason why my content is able to potentially stand out from others is that I have that ability.
3:55And then I have the analytics background. Plus, I read literally everything that's out there.
3:59And I'm just kind of pushing that all together.
4:02I wrote a couple articles last year breaking down the Jaguars offense from a schematic standpoint, like with a bunch of film review as well.
4:10And then merging that with analytics. And then I did the same thing with the Seahawks before everyone was talking about the whole like heavy personnel passing stuff.
4:18And now translating that into this route depth type of work that I ended up doing this past summer so far a
4:25couple weeks ago and outputting that as something that, you know, I don't think has really been explored.
4:31It's like what routes people are actually running, how deep they're running, and how that translates into fantasy value.
4:37Yeah, I think it's a great piece, and I think it's just kind of a really nice way to look at the
4:43wide receivers in a different sort of light. Because, you know, there's just been a lot of, you know, well, you know,
4:50he goes deep, so he's a great late round shot in a best ball league.
4:55And, you know, while that might or might not be true, you know, you want to look and see are there any
5:02better players that I could be drafting instead of this guy who's just sort of a deep merchant.
5:07So why don't we just kind of dive right into that article?
5:11I found it really intriguing, and I'll put my screen up here.
5:15Yeah, I think the applications to this are wide too.
5:18So it's not just kind of like, I think you can apply a lot of this back to both Redraft, Dynasty, and Basketball, PFS.
5:25Like, I think this applies to every single format, really, that's out there.
5:29Because the way that it's constructed is thinking through the season-long value that the players have, but then also thinking about the
5:36individual weeks that people have when it comes to, like, spike weeks and stuff, too.
5:41And I think this analysis can really help people through all of those different aspects.
5:45So really what I tried to understand through all of this process, but my initial take here was when I was looking
5:52at the data and trying to understand what's going on with Brian Thomas from last year, I realized that he started running a lot more deep routes.
6:00They turned him into a deep threat once they got Jacoby Myers.
6:04And so that was my initial, like, thesis behind, obviously he had an injury, but also my initial thesis behind, well, is
6:11he in a favorable fantasy role in general? Like, what are they doing with him?
6:16How are they using the player? And then after that, I started digging into the data more and understood that, you know,
6:22there's these different, like, route depths that people are running.
6:25And what it actually ends up translating into is differential in fantasy value from an average perspective and then spike week perspective as well.
6:33So when I'm explaining this, there's short routes, and those short routes are going to be nine yards or less.
6:39And then there's intermediate routes that are 10 to 19 yards.
6:42And then there's deep routes that are 20-plus yards down the field, right?
6:47And so if you think about it, if someone had three total routes and they ran one of each, they would have 33% of each.
6:54And it's not that common that people run, like, a 40% or something deep, deep roll.
6:59Most people run shorter often because that's just, like, the time that people have to throw the ball.
7:05But on any individual play, you could think about it as there's usually, like, five eligible route participation players.
7:11And there's probably one guy that's running deep, two guys that are running intermediate, and two guys that are going short, right?
7:17And so your average, if you're kind of just, like, rotating within those five, like, route concepts or depths, is going to
7:24be, you know, one-fifth or one-fifth, right? And when I started breaking down the data, thinking through, like, okay, what is, like,
7:31too much when it comes to running deep? And what I found was roughly, like, 20% to 25% is where you start
7:38getting into the point where these players are running deeper, and it's not necessarily translating into as much fantasy value.
7:44And the inverse of that is true as well, right?
7:47So if they're running deep, and so those are, like, the big impacts that end up happening.
7:52Shorter passes are easier to complete, which is why that matters, right?
7:56So, like, on a completion percentage basis for quarterbacks, one, they're more accurate throwing shorter.
8:01And then the completion percentage on, like, a nine-yard pass versus a 20-yard pass is going to be, like, 70% versus, like, 30%.
8:08So if you're running more of those deep ones, you're unlikely to get the ball as often.
8:13So if you're running more of those types of target test, you're likely to be able to get further deep, you know,
8:20a 20% for duration, when you're running longer, you're always running more of those hunting times.
8:25So if you're running more of those комментар Lords, you're going to be able to get the ball out, you're going to
8:32be able to get the ball out. And then, like, the road ones, you're going to get the ball out, right?
8:38but your opportunity is really not just the targets.
8:41It's being on the field and running a route.
8:44So I always think about it that way and saying like, all right, well, we care about route share.
8:50Why don't we care about the depth that they're running in as well?
8:54So that's kind of like the breakdown of what I was kind of like thinking through throughout the process of making sure
9:00like this all kind of made sense for fantasy and then translating it back into like which players I like based off of all this analysis.
9:09Yep. Totally makes sense. Okay. And you found. Then if we go down to like the average.
9:14Yep. No, you go for it. Okay. Yeah. I was just going to say then that that brings us into this average depth of route sweet spot.
9:22Tell us a little bit about that. Yeah. So the interesting thing that I found here is that if we're looking at
9:29like the top, you know, five ish wide receivers every single year in fantasy, they're usually sitting between an average depth of
9:36route between like eight and 11 yards. So that means that they get enough easy button things.
9:41They get enough deep things and enough intermediate things that keep them like relevant on a game by game basis.
9:47Right. And, and some of that has to do with like, Hey, you're a focal point in the offense.
9:53So we're going to do things like give you screens.
9:56We're going to do things like have you just run like a quick drag route and then you're dynamic.
10:02You're going to go like make a, make a big play.
10:05Um, but it also has to do with the fact that they use them in sporadic ways to send them deep.
10:12And when they do that, a guy like JSN last year who ran deep, maybe like, you know, 15 to 17% of the time.
10:19I mean, think about all the times that he ended up scoring deep touchdowns last year.
10:24It's because they were able to mix it in more than just saying like, Hey, this is your role and you're going
10:31every single time, like down the field. Um, so that like sweet spot is kind of where you see the biggest like fantasy game.
10:39Uh, but it's more valuable to be less than if you're going to be, if you're going to go up on the
10:45scale, like above the 12, it's less valuable. And if you're below the eight, that's still valuable.
10:51It's just, um, there's just like a more like nuanced role.
10:54We see guys like Debo Samuel sitting in that, like, you know, seven to eight yard depth of route.
11:00Um, and then I wrote about this in the article too.
11:03Khalil Shakir is kind of a mixed bag when it comes to this, because he has like two of the historically like
11:10smallest, like average depth of route, uh, roles that he's done in the past two years.
11:15So I think there could be like a theoretical drop-off point and his has been like five to six yards, which I
11:22think is maybe just like too short to be a guy that spikes.
11:26But, you know, if you're looking for just a guy that's going to like get, you know, something like seven, eight to
11:3310 points, like he could get you that. And then I'm looking at like the, the deep routes here.
11:39You can see some of the names that I pointed out in this article.
11:43Um, Alec Pierce, who's been in this like more deep zone of 12 to 16 yards average depth of route.
11:49Um, he's been in that zone pretty much his entire career.
11:52Uh, and his, I think his eight out last year was like 19 something, um, which was by far the most.
11:59And guess who the second most was, uh, if I make some season splits, it was Brian Thomas Jr.
12:05Um, so you can kind of tell where I'm going with this when it comes to like roles and how they matter for fantasy.
12:12Um, even when you break down the data for Alec Pierce, uh, it's not that his fantasy, like he, we think about
12:19it as like, Hey, this guy got a thousand yards, scored like six or seven touchdowns.
12:24Um, his spike weeks were maybe like two or three weeks out of the season in general.
12:29And like, you think when you're drafting him, you're actually getting a guy that's going to spike like four or five or
12:36something times, but it's not the case. It's, it's the, it's the guys that are kind of sitting in this like short to intermediate zone.
12:44Yep. Totally makes sense. And, um, so as you, as you're doing all this research, um, this was all half PPR.
12:50Is that correct? Yeah. So I was looking at this from a half PPR perspective, mainly because I know that people are
12:57right now, people are drafting on underdog and then the same concepts apply back to PPR because, um, you know, that reception is worth more.
13:05So the short depth guys get more receptions. Um, the, the sporadicness of this and the, uh, the variance that you would
13:12see in this next chart that we're going through would actually be bigger when you look at it from a full, uh, PPR lens.
13:19If you took away the PPR, it would still lean toward the short, uh, depth players, but you know, that would like
13:26shorten the, the, uh, variance between the two. Yeah, totally makes sense.
13:30So yeah, the more, the more points per reception you're getting, uh, the, the more it kind of skews things towards those,
13:36those players who are picking up a lot of receptions, you know, which tend to be the short and intermediate stuff versus
13:43the, the deep reception or the deep, uh, ball players who are, you know, as he, as we go back to this,
13:50um, you know, receptions per route run, uh, you know, the, the short is 20%, uh, intermediate nine and the deep, you know, 0.05.
13:57So you're looking at basically four times as many receptions per route on the short as you are at the deep.
14:04So all of that, you know, if you're putting a half point on, that's, you know, that's one thing, but when you
14:11put one point on, uh, it just multiplies the effect of it.
14:14So, uh, that's, that's one of the things I really, uh, took out of it is you, you know, you've just got
14:21to be able to get those numbers of receptions.
14:24If you're playing in a full PPR format, um, you know, we, we always talk about PPR scam players, but, um, you
14:31know, they're, they're a real thing and, and, and it is something that you can rely on.
14:36Everybody likes to just say, oh, it's a PPR scam and they just want to, you know, kind of sweep it under
14:43the rug is that's not really relevant, um, to, you know, like a normal wide receiver, but it really is.
14:49Yeah. And then when I was looking at it from like a, kind of like a more DFS angle or spike week
14:56angle for, uh, best ball, since that's what I'm, I'm deep in the weeds on.
15:01Um, and this was my original intent for this entire article was literally thinking about this from a Brian Thomas perspective.
15:07Um, it just came back to the fact that, you know what, I want to see like what the smash weeks look
15:14like the boom weeks, the spike weeks, like the useful and bust weeks and see like what, what this like mix looks like.
15:21And then I also want to take out like even the top, like, you know, the top, the people that go in
15:28the top two rounds and see if this all makes sense.
15:31Right. And so every time I like paired back the data and said, Hey, I'm going to take out, um, your Pukas
15:38and your JSNs and whoever else that sits in that, like first and second round, um, this same like pattern existed.
15:45And, and you would, you can see it like the smash weeks are 5.8% from a short route depth player versus 2.8%
15:51for a smash, uh, smash for a deep route player.
15:54And so like, while that is only a 3% difference, it is double.
15:58Um, and that really, really does matter when you're looking at your DFS lineups because you're looking for that increased edge, um,
16:05in any way that you can, right? Like smash 25 plus point week is huge for DFS.
16:10It's huge for best ball. Um, and then you look at the boom weeks and it's also double.
16:16And then you look at the spike weeks and it's close to double.
16:20And then, you know, even the bus and the, the, the distribution of all of this ends up being where you start
16:27seeing patterns where, Hey, this guy's going to hit my lineup.
16:30People are worried about zeros in, um, in best ball.
16:33And these short depth guys are going to be more useful and they're also going to boom more.
16:39And that's like the biggest takeaway that I ended up having.
16:42Yeah. I think that's a, that's a super important takeaway.
16:45Cause one thing that I really started thinking about it.
16:49And after I read this article is, you know, really what it is, is we're, when you get a reception, you know,
16:55for however many yards, maybe it's got a touchdown, maybe it doesn't, but you've got basically from the line of scrimmage to
17:02where that player gets tackled or until they get to the end zone, that's what's available to you for the points.
17:09That that player can score. But it's just so much easier to, you know, if you, if you can catch that ball
17:1510 yards past the line of scrimmage and then you run another 50 and get the touchdown, you know, I don't know
17:22if that's easier or harder, but you're gonna, you're gonna get, even if you get tackled, you're still getting that, that point for the reception.
17:30You're getting the 10 points for the, or the one point for the 10 yards.
17:35So you're getting two points out of it no matter what.
17:38Whereas the guy who's going deep, he might eventually get that 60 yard touchdown, but how many throws is it going to take?
17:45How many throws are actually going to be receptions?
17:48You know? So you, you basically, what you're doing is you're adding up all those single points for the reception and a
17:55PPR or half points per reception and a PPR that gets you on down towards the end of the field, but it's
18:02not like, you know, if you, you only throw the ball 10 yards, it doesn't stop the receiver from going the rest of the way on his own.
18:10If that makes sense. No, it does. And, and see, like, that's why kind of this like, um, concept of getting the
18:17ball within like five, six, seven yards, the line of scrimmage, um, like Rasheed Rice, super valuable.
18:22He's not even a great separator when, when I look at our fantasy points metrics or anything like that, but just sits in holes.
18:30And the, the offense is basically PPR scamming him.
18:32And what he's good at is he's good at creating yards after catch and you get more yards after catch when you
18:39do these short routes because the defense is naturally dropping back a little bit.
18:44Um, but he's got a little bit more wiggle than even your like average player.
18:48Um, so he can turn some of those, you know, five yard receptions into 15 yard receptions.
18:54Um, and they, they use him a lot in the red zone too.
18:58And I think it's a skill, right? Uh, when guys are getting open short and they do that so often, that means
19:04that they can do that in the red zone as well, where they're sitting five yards underneath and they're finding little holes
19:11and creases, uh, in the red zone. And these deep guys aren't used to having to do that.
19:17And so you get even more touchdowns out of these short route depth players as well.
19:22And that's, that's kind of like the Rasheed Rice type of thing.
19:25And even like Amin Ross St. Brown sits into that same like kind of realm where it's like, Hey, one possession, he
19:32can get five receptions in one possession where that get him 50 yards where like an 80 Mitchell type, which I, I'm, I'm still into 80 Mitchell.
19:41Don't worry guys. Um, 80 Mitchell type who's just running deep, uh, would do that on one play.
19:46But when you're looking at PPR, you want the five for 50, like instead of the one for 50.
19:52So I think it's, it's all relative and valuable.
19:55Yeah. Yeah. That totally makes sense. Um, all right.
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21:54All right. And we're back. So, so Zane, I thought that was an interesting point you made just before the break, you
22:01know, about like a Rasheed Rice and how he can get open in short areas.
22:05And, you know, I think that's, that is really a skill and that's, that's why I hadn't really thought about it.
22:12In, in how they, you know, these short area players do get more valuable because, you know, a lot of, a lot
22:19of times the, you know, the deep route specialists, they tend to be the ones who are like, you know, if they're
22:25going to get the ball in the end zone, it's sort of a high point situation or, you know, dragging across the
22:32back of the end zone or something like that.
22:35Whereas those pay, those players who can work open right at the goal line or just, you know, just behind the goal
22:42line or just in front of it, you know, open up a whole different area of the field for the quarterback to throw to.
22:49So it makes a lot of sense to me.
22:52Yeah. You play in that more like specialist type of role where you're getting the short, short routes.
22:58And, and then you're used to creating the yards after catch.
23:01If you catch it at the five yard line and you're a short route guy, you're more likely because we see this
23:08with the yak distribution to the guys that actually are deep threats.
23:12I didn't put this in the article. Guys that are the deep threats are worse at yak to even on the short
23:18routes because they don't get that opportunity as often.
23:21And so when you're, when you catch the ball up the five yard line, a guy like Rasheed Rice is more likely
23:28to score the touchdown when he catches up the five yard line versus a guy like in the neutral just because of
23:35their skillset when it comes to breaking tackles and yak.
23:38Yeah, totally makes sense. You know, cause you know, the deeper balls, the quarterback, you know, it, a lot of times they
23:45look even a little bit more accurate than they are because some of their accuracy is just the wide receiver down the field adjusting to the ball.
23:53And, you know, when you're, when you're having to do a lot of adjustment to the ball, it kind of ruins your momentum.
24:00You know, as far as being able to, you know, make yards after the catch.
24:05Whereas when you're on these short and intermediate routes, especially if you're moving, you know, across the formation, which is why I
24:12really like players who do a lot of end breaking routes because they're, they're continuing to move and they're at such a
24:18spot where the quarterback can hopefully lead them, you know, where they don't really have to break stride or else they just
24:25have to break stride a little bit to catch that ball and they can keep right on moving.
24:31So, you know, all these things kind of explain why our short area and intermediate area wide receivers, I think are, are
24:38the better choices when you, when you have the option.
24:41Yeah, exactly. And, you know, I tried to look at it by ADP too.
24:45So I talked about this already where I said, I stripped out like the top two round guys just to like see how this methodology plays out.
24:53So, you know, you don't, I think some of it is priced into ADP where the deeper, deeper route players are somewhat cheaper in fantasy.
25:01But you start seeing them show up more in this like round four through like, and then beyond area.
25:07Whereas the, some of like the premier short route guys are, are still like in the first three rounds, but there's still
25:14a mix of players that are short rep route guys in the round four through whatever range.
25:19And then there's also, so that's where you start doing the comparison and trade-offs, right?
25:24Where you start thinking through like, okay, I'm at my draft seat right now.
25:28So if I'm looking at it, if I'm staring in down the barrel and seeing a Brian Thomas, who's for all intents
25:35and purposes going to be a deep threat again this year, based off of all reports that I've put out there and
25:42his metrics from last year, what they did with him once they got to Kobe Myers.
25:47You're sitting there and you're thinking about, okay, I've got Brian Thomas on the board.
25:51And then there's another guy that's on the board that comes a little, like a little bit later in like Josh Downs,
25:58who's more of a short area guy and that I expect to actually be more of a full-time player this year.
26:04And you think about the trade-offs and you're like, well, I can just take Josh Downs and like two rounds and take
26:11a running back here or take one of the elite quarterbacks or something like that.
26:16Right. So that's like the, the methodology that I'm starting to play out in my drafts right now, when I'm thinking about
26:23how to like make this effective for myself and then, you know, for all the listeners.
26:28Yeah, that totally makes sense. So, so I'm curious when you were looking at this average depth of route, I assume that's
26:34basically the same thing as average depth of target, right?
26:38No. So the target average, average depth of target is on the place where you actually get targeted.
26:43Average depth of route is every single route that you run.
26:47So if you're running a split and you don't get targeted, if you're running a go route and you don't get targeted,
26:53those are factored into that as well. It's a, it's a, it's a little bit of a more like new metric, something
27:00that I'm able to create through my fantasy points contribution.
27:03But I think it's something that, that if, that we're going to be exposing and talking through for the rest of the
27:10season to make sure that people are, are able to understand which players roles, if, if at all switching roles.
27:16And then, and how that, that's going to apply for the rest of the season.
27:21If there's guys that you may want to drop or guys that you want to pick up because of the role changes that we end up seeing.
27:29Okay. Yeah, that's, that's great. That's an interesting thing.
27:32So is average depth of the route, is that something that's available right now on fantasy points data?
27:38Or is it something that you have to kind of work towards?
27:41It will be exposed a little bit more soon.
27:44There are different ways to get it. You'd have to pull like multiple reports.
27:48I think what we're trying to accomplish is just making that kind of like a one report, one stop shop type of thing.
27:56Um, you know, there's going to be updates to the fantasy points data suite that's going to happen, uh, later this, later this month, uh, or early August.
28:04And, uh, and, and that's going to give people access to being able to like explore this type of analysis a little
28:11bit more and, and, uh, more on top of that as well.
28:15Nice. Nice. So how sticky is average depth throughout year over year?
28:18Have you done any looking into that? Yeah. Yeah.
28:21So I was looking into that because I wanted to understand like, okay, guys change teams, right?
28:26We've got Jalen Waddle who's going from, uh, his role in Miami, uh, to his role in Denver.
28:32Um, and what happens when players change teams? Now we have less players that are like worth a lot in fantasy that change teams.
28:39Um, so it's a smaller sample, but generally the route depth sticks with a player, regardless if they change teams or stay
28:46on the same team, or if they have a coordinator change or whatever ends up happening.
28:51Um, it's kind of like, this is your specialty role.
28:54You are this type of player and that kind of sticks with you.
28:58The times that it happens a little bit less often, even it stays, it usually stays with the player throughout their career,
29:05but the times that it happens a little bit less often is, uh, people that are really early in their career.
29:12Right. So like year one, you know, there's a guy, there's players that end up doing like, Hey, I've got, I just
29:18got to fill the X receiver role for the season.
29:22Uh, but then they develop into a different type of player, uh, the next year.
29:26Um, you can almost think of like, they ascends actually a decent example.
29:30He wasn't a deep threat necessarily his first year, but he wasn't getting all these like easy button targets underneath.
29:36And then, um, you know, they get, they get rid of, uh, some of their other players with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
29:44And, uh, and now he's kind of like the focal point in the offense.
29:48They try to design like short area stuff for him.
29:51Um, so that, that's, that's one example. I think you could see like even a Mecca, Imbuca is like a decent example.
29:58He had to step into an X receiver role last year, um, when Mike Evans went down.
30:03And so that changes his route depth, um, instead of being more of the Z or slot receiver where you're going to
30:10get this short to intermediate stuff more often. Um, so, and this year he's expected to be more of the Z receiver,
30:17um, maybe spelling, uh, Chris Godwin in the slot when, if Godwin were to go down or, uh, if Godwin's taking like a breather too.
30:24So those are kind of like the situations that I'm, I'm thinking through for, for these players, like early, early career guys,
30:31you know, you got to kind of think through like, uh, what's happening.
30:35And then I was also thinking about it for guys that have like big departures or if there's overlapping skill sets in
30:42a team, like has two guys that kind of play a similar type of role.
30:47So I actually tweeted this out, um, maybe yesterday or two days ago, I was thinking about this for Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, right?
30:54They didn't play that often together. They weren't on the field that much together, um, running routes.
31:00They had about a 52 route sample together. And when they did, Christian Watson was the deep threat and Matthew Golden was the more like intermediate threat.
31:08Um, whereas when Matthew Golden wasn't on the field, Watson was doing a little bit more of the intermediate.
31:14He was still a deep threat, but he was like less of a deep threat than he was.
31:19So I'm trying to translate that back into like what's going to happen for this year.
31:24And I'm struggling because I didn't write about him in this article as a fade because I'm having a tough time actually
31:31wanting to fade him knowing that I, I still think that he's like a really good player.
31:36Um, and has like capabilities beyond what he's been asked to do.
31:40Uh, so what I did was I stuck to the guys that I really felt were the guys that I want to
31:47fade in the article because I'm confident that their role is going to stay constant.
31:52I'm confident that, uh, that their situation isn't going to play out in the way that I actually want it to play out for them.
31:59Um, and then there's like fringe guys that I was, I was like a little bit nervous to write about that.
32:06I, if I wanted to be super bold, I would have put them in the article, but I, I didn't want to
32:13be as bold as I probably should have. Yeah.
32:15I don't know. I mean, I think it's, I think it's good to kind of go at it from the direction when you did it.
32:23Well, these are the players I'm confident about. And, you know, we, we can play the wait and see game with some
32:30of these, pardon me, with some of these other players and see how they turn out.
32:35Um, you know, since this is a relatively new concept that you're looking at, uh, you know, a little bit more data,
32:42a little bit more nuance, um, is only going to help us figure out how to use it better because, you know,
32:49with, like with anything, uh, context is king and every player has a lot of different context around them.
32:54So, um, and, and also I too. The interesting thing about it too.
32:58Um, I was just going to say the interesting thing about it too, is that, um, you know, the charted data from
33:05fantasy points is from 2021 to 2025, right? So that's like five seasons worth of data.
33:10Um, the issue with that is that this too high, like Vic Fangio type of offense or sorry, defense, um, that is
33:17basically designed to keep people from blowing the top off of the defense is pretty much the era that we've operated in since the charting data was available.
33:26And so you kind of have to put that into context too.
33:29Are things changing with the NFL meta? That's going to make this like less relevant that deep threats might, might, might actually
33:36like come, come back into play as like true big spike week players or, or something like a Randy Moss, or I'm
33:43thinking about, about him and how like this guy would have, you know, five cat.
33:48If I remember correctly, it was three catches versus the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in 1998 for 164 yards and two, and two touchdowns.
33:55Like that kind of thing existed. And now it does not as often.
33:59And so what I'm trying to understand is whether that's going to change.
34:03And I actually think defenses are leaning heavier into this Vic Fangio style of the two high shells and making it a
34:10little bit more confusing, making quarterbacks need to get the ball out quicker to these short route route guys.
34:15So that's like the other application that I've been thinking through with, with all of this too.
34:21Should we talk about the targets and fades a little bit?
34:24Yeah, let's, let's definitely do that. You know, cause I, I I'm with you.
34:28I had a hard time, you know, looking at this data.
34:32One of the first players I thought about was Christian Watson.
34:35I was like, I don't really want to fade that guy.
34:39So, but what I can mention a couple of players that I didn't put in the article that I think might fit
34:45these profiles of people want like a, Hey, this guy might be in here, but I just didn't want to put them on paper.
34:53So you guys can check out the article and read more about the individual players.
34:58And we'll, we'll talk about all of them here, but the guys that fit into this bucket that I wasn't certain on
35:04from a deep perspective that I would potentially fade.
35:07Amos and Williams, a deep threat. But, um, and notably like the first half of the season last year, he played that
35:14role more and then Sam Laporta got injured. And then Dan Campbell took on play calling.
35:19And then like his role changed a little bit, um, and became more of a focal point in the offense.
35:25So that's why I kind of left him out was they have a coordinator change with Drew Petsing.
35:31Um, not exactly sure how they're going to deploy him versus, um, Sam Laporta.
35:35I mean, he's probably still going to be the deep threat, but at the same time, like maybe Isaac Tesla, since he's
35:42the, the, um, going to be like the X receiver, uh, maybe he, he does more of the deep stuff.
35:48And then Jamison Williams does a little bit more intermediate that keeps him more relevant and focused in the offense.
35:54So I didn't necessarily write him in. Um, and then the other part about him is that you can get burned by,
36:01by fading him because we saw what happens when Sam Laporta gets injured.
36:05We saw what could happen if Amon Ra were to miss time.
36:09Um, and then you're sitting in a situation where like this guy ends up being a round three value the weeks that those guys are out.
36:17And you're just kind of scared to like end up being in that position.
36:21So it's hard to fade a guy that's going to be on an offense that throws for 4,500 yards.
36:27Um, those offenses are fewer and far between these days.
36:30Yeah. And especially with a guy like, uh, like Jamison, who's got that skillset that is, you know, very malleable and he can, he can be used intermediate.
36:39He can be used deep. He can even be used shallow.
36:42Yeah. And then the other guy that kind of fits into this, um, that I'm somewhat now, now I feel like his
36:49ADP is, has moved up enough to where I I'm probably comfortable putting him in the fade category.
36:54Um, but it's Quentin Johnston. So at the original time when I started writing this, I think his ADP was in the
37:01nineties and now he's in like the seventies on underdog or something.
37:05Uh, and it's all because some of these news reports that have come out that are saying like, Hey, he's going to
37:12be in a yak friendly, like role. Um, so we're going to do some more like short area stuff and whatnot.
37:18And they want to get the ball out in 2.5 seconds.
37:22Um, uh, the chargers do. And so like thinking about him, he's been a deep threat his entire career, but the, like
37:29you listen to Matt Harmon, you listen to even guys from fantasy points that are like doing some of the separation, like charting and stuff like that.
37:37They miscast him in like this, this X receiver role where he should be running down the field and just like kind
37:44of trying to get open on like a, on a go route instead of, Hey, we're going to throw this guy like
37:50a drag route or a screen or a slant and get him really involved in this offense so he can break tackles and take, take his distance.
37:59Um, coming out, his profile is more of like a Debo Samuel type rather than like where they've deployed him.
38:05And so I'm a, that's why I like, I'm a little bit worried about, cause this is one of those situations where
38:12a coordinator change, um, and all the coach speak that's coming out about them doing like these, um, yak heavy, get the
38:19ball out in 2.5 seconds type of stuff turns into maybe he's not a deep threat this year.
38:24Maybe they, they put Trey Harris into that role whenever they go in 11 personnel and they try to keep him in
38:31lad kind of like short and intermediate instead. And so that, that was, that's my main concern with him.
38:37Um, I don't think he's a great pick right now because he's moved up to too close to other guys that I just like taking.
38:45Um, but back when he was going to the nineties, I felt like, man, this, this guy could, could actually do a lot.
38:52And then it was, it was good to like stack him up with, uh, Justin Herbert too, which you could take Herbert
38:59first and then take, um, Quentin Johnston right after that.
39:02Yeah, that definitely made a lot of sense. Um, and I've been off of, uh, Quentin Johnson for the same reasons as
39:08you basically, um, since he's moved up so far, you know, where he was going was, was pretty acceptable.
39:14But at this point, it's like, it's, it's pretty hard to click that button with some of the other names around him.
39:21Um, curious. So, so, um, we're avoiding Brian Thomas Jr.
39:24Pretty much assuming that he keeps that deep role.
39:27Does that mean we should be all in on Parker Washington?
39:30Or do you think that there's going to be just too many wide receivers involved here?
39:35This is the million dollar question that everybody keeps asking.
39:38Um, and the interesting thing is that Parker Washington doesn't have the short role either.
39:43He doesn't have the deep role, but he's more of like the intermediate target.
39:47Jacoby is the short guy. Parker Washington is both short and intermediate with a little bit of deep.
39:53He kind of operates at all three levels, but not enough as a deep threat.
39:58Um, and then Jacoby does more so just short and intermediate.
40:01Um, and then Bretton Strange is short and intermediate too, uh, for the most part.
40:06Um, I, this is one where I, I moved my take to, yes, I would rather invest in Parker Washington.
40:12Um, but the reason why is not because of his depth.
40:15It's because of the role in the offense where he's pretty much guaranteed to be the slot receiver and Liam Cohen's offense,
40:22which has produced players that have put up elite fantasy, um, numbers in that specific slot role.
40:27And, you know, a lot of people are wondering, like they drafted a tight end, um, in the second round.
40:34Uh, and then they got cozy old two and round, like, I think it was five.
40:38Um, are they going to do more like 12 and 13 personnel?
40:42And my take on that is that everything that I'm reading doesn't point to them doing it enough more for it to really matter.
40:50I think they did it like 20% of the time last year.
40:53Maybe that kicks up like three, 4%. And that's just going to be, that might be like one route per a player, you know, uh, in a game.
41:02And so I'm not, I'm not really that worried about it.
41:05Um, I think those are more like long-term investments, especially as these receivers potentially, um, leave the team over time.
41:12And I, I think Parker Washington is going to get an extension.
41:15So I think he's going to be here for a while.
41:19Um, he's a guy that's going to be turning 30 at some point soon.
41:23And then they could potentially think about that. Um, if they want to get Travis Hunter more involved in the offense, um,
41:30they have the opportunity to do that by potentially, you know, there's been a lot of chatter about trading Brian Thomas.
41:36Um, if he's able to put up some good weeks, maybe they do something like that.
41:41They, they actually did explore it this off season.
41:44So it's not like too far fetched for that to, to actually end up happening.
41:49Um, so I think the 12 and 13 personnel is something that will potentially happen, but it'll just be, um, something that
41:55could be like a 20, 27, like more uptick, uh, that, that I'm, I'd be more concerned about.
42:01And then people are also probably wondering like with Parker Washington, is he going to play outside ever?
42:07Is he going to play in, in two wide receivers sets?
42:10Liam Cohen literally talked about this. He said he called him an out, a good player on the outside and on the inside.
42:17Um, and that wasn't talking about like his, his drive and his grit, like his heart.
42:22I was talking about him on the spot and, uh, and on the outside, like as a, as an outside receiver.
42:29I mean, if you look at the metrics, I think I broke this down on X too, but he actually had a
42:35higher targets per route run as an outside receiver, um, and yards per route run.
42:40It was pretty close to being the same. Uh, but it just proves that, um, you know, and he played equally outside
42:47and, and, uh, in the slot last year that he has that capability.
42:51Um, so I think once his contract extension comes into play, which I think will happen near training camp, uh, and they're
42:58saying it'll be close to the Jane Reed deal where it's like 16 or once that happens, I think his price is
43:04going to go up even more because that, that will show the long-term commitment, um, and monetary value that people are going
43:11to say, well, crap, this guy is like a big part of their plans.
43:16Um, so yeah, I would invest in him now.
43:18Yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense.
43:21And, you know, the, the wide receiver I'm least interested in investing in probably, um, is Jacoby Myers just because he doesn't
43:28have the same sort of dynamism, dynamism that, uh, Parker Washington does after the catch.
43:33I mean, uh, you know, I, I, I think Parker Washington has proven to be a much better player than, uh, what fantasy gamers expected him to be.
43:41Uh, you know, certainly over the last 10 weeks of last year, but I know a lot of them are just considering
43:48that, well, I'm, you know, that, that was just a short-term thing.
43:52It was because, uh, Travis Hunter was injured or whatever.
43:55And, you know, I just don't see it that way at all.
43:59Um, and I'm with you on the 12 personnel.
44:01I think they probably did that more to improve the running game.
44:05And I think that's where it's going to show up more often for Jacksonville.
44:09Um, especially if they can get a lead late, you know, going a lot more towards 12 personnel and being able to close out the game.
44:17But I think the main thing it did was it just allowed them to, you know, if they've got, uh, uh, you
44:24know, a, a much better Y tight end, then they can shift, uh, strange out to the F tight end and they've got superior blocking ability.
44:32And also they've got a guy in strange that can be a threat in the passing game.
44:38So, you know, defenses can't play it as straight run either.
44:41So I think that's what they were probably looking to do.
44:44Yeah. I think, I think I mentioned this. I think I mentioned this a little bit in our pre-chairs.
44:50So I did like data charting last year for, um, fantasy points.
44:54A lot of this comes back to like my film background and just being able to like analyze and see what's going on.
45:01And I, that was one of the reasons why I decided to do it.
45:05Um, and I did a lot of the Jaguars games actually wrote a big article on breaking down their film last year.
45:12And one of the things that I noticed was, I mean, when they did do this, like just thinking through, like they
45:19had Quentin Morris, I believe lined up in that like blocking role.
45:23Um, which that guy, you know, has no athletic bones in his body, doesn't present any sort of like receiving threat, um, for the offense.
45:31And so what I think they wanted to do is like, let's, what if we changed Quentin Morris to a guy that
45:37if we like leaked him out a couple of times, like Nate Bowricker is a good athlete.
45:43He didn't have great like receiving stats, but he's a good athlete.
45:46So they, they can theoretically like at least leak them out on some play action plays and like get some, you know,
45:53get something out of that spot instead of like nobody paying attention to Quentin Morris.
45:58And I think that's like kind of the situation that they're trying to put them in.
46:03Makes sense. Makes sense. Hey, it's Bill from the Bill Simmons podcast, FIFA World Cup 26 fans.
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46:57So what do you think about just moving on to some other teams?
47:01How about the Panthers? Ted McMillan versus Jalen Coker or even throw in Xavier Leguette if you want.
47:07Yeah, so I'm not even certain that, based on reports, I'm not even sure that Xavier Leguette will be their wide receiver
47:14three, at least for the entire season. And notice I said wide receiver three, which means that Jalen Coker is their guaranteed wide receiver two.
47:22When they go into wide receiver sets, it'll always be Jalen Coker.
47:25I believe last year they were in pre-wide receiver sets on pass plays for like 79% of the time.
47:31So they're not even going to do a two wide receiver set that often anyway.
47:36But if they do, Jalen Coker will be on the field.
47:39He's pretty much going to be an every down player for them.
47:43And so will Ted McMillan. The difference between the two is obviously that Ted McMillan had 1,000 yards last year.
47:49He did it in a big sample size throughout the season last year.
47:53And he has the draft capital and Jalen Coker doesn't.
47:56Jalen Coker has the contract that they just gave him.
47:59They operate kind of in a different way, different spaces.
48:02Ted does go a little bit deeper sometimes. Not always.
48:06He's not a deep threat. He operates at all three levels of the field.
48:10And Coker kind of stays more like short and intermediate, which to me is more obviously a little bit more valuable.
48:16And then we ended up seeing kind of how it played out in the playoff game where Jalen Coker was, he was,
48:23obviously they were using him as the secondary receiver, but the Rams decided we're going to commit all of our resources to stopping Ted McMillan.
48:31And it's very possible that we see defenses do that.
48:34So their stats, their stats actually might end up being more closely aligned than most people would like to think because of
48:41the way that defenses will shift things a lot towards Ted McMillan this year.
48:45The problem is that I don't foresee the Panthers being this like dynamic passing offense that gets more than even like 3,600 passing yards this season.
48:53I think last year Bryce Young had roughly like 3,200 off the top of my head, something like that, which makes it
49:00really tough to support too many weapons in that offense.
49:03The good thing is that they don't really have any tight ends or anybody else that's going to eat into it too much.
49:10So you're basically talking about two guys consolidating a lot of that, a lot of that offense in general.
49:16Projection wise for Jalen Coker, I would say you can expect something between 600 to 800 yards.
49:21That's a wide range, but that's where I would kind of see him fitting in.
49:26And then Ted has obviously the higher ceiling because he is the better talent.
49:30I'll just, you know, nobody, that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
49:34But he's also dealing with a little bit of a foot injury and he was dealing with that at OTAs.
49:40And he's had a history of a foot injury that dates back to college that I don't know everybody knows about that.
49:47I'm a little bit concerned about because it seems like it's more of like a stress reaction type of thing.
49:53Um, and so I'm a, I'm a little bit scared where he sits right now.
49:58Um, uh, at like a third round ADP or, or like early fourth round where whoever he's falling to at this point in time.
50:05Um, that he's just a, like, I don't see the ceiling of him getting to 1400 yards where you're trying to, when
50:12you're taking a guy in that third, fourth round range, you're hoping that he could be a second or first rounder.
50:19I just don't see it happening for him this year, even though he has the talent that mostly comes down to like
50:25pass yards and what that offense can do. But I can see a way that Jalen Coker like pays off his ADP,
50:32um, by getting like, you know, if you got 800 yards out of 120 or 130 ADP, that's, that's pretty good.
50:39Yeah, definitely. And Coker is also a good, uh, weapon in the red zone as is Tep McMillan.
50:44Um, you know, both of them are, I think kind of the path for Coker is it really needs to be pretty
50:51heavily consolidated, uh, between the two wide receivers, not a tight end of consequence, not a third receiver of consequence.
50:57You know, we're looking for Chris Brazil to be playing, you know, kind of sacrificial Alex, um, Leggett to just not really be that much of a factor.
51:06And if, if that happens, I think it works for Coker because, you know, teams will be shading their coverage more towards Tett.
51:13Um, you know, and, and I'm right with you on Tett.
51:16I just, I don't see how I can see him paying off his ADP, but not, you know, becoming a smash pick or anything like that.
51:24Uh, you know, and in that range, I'd just rather take this, the players that I feel like can be smash picks.
51:31Um, how about the, um, one of the trade-offs, one of the trade-offs I actually have in my article is Tett versus, um, Garrett Wilson.
51:39As I wrote about Garrett Wilson, um, where he's kind of sat in this, that ADOR, the average depth of route sweet
51:46spot every single year of his career and has been a short area guy for every single season of his career.
51:52Um, so that, that mix for me, like, I know, you know, you could say almost similar things about Gino in some
51:59ways, like his floor of getting to 3,200 yards is definitely possible.
52:03Um, especially with Frank Reich, like nobody knows how this is going to end up playing out.
52:08Um, but the way I see it is that one, I think that Garrett Wilson is a more polished player at this
52:15point in time in his career than Tett McMillan.
52:18Two, he runs a more friendly, like, route distribution tree in terms of depth and then what he actually runs, like slants and stuff like that.
52:26Um, and so my thought process on him is, you know, there was a lot of people that have put out, like, O-line rankings recently.
52:33Um, I think only one place had the Jets ranked pretty low.
52:37Uh, but, but Gino Smith is notably way better when he's not under pressure.
52:41Um, and last year he was under pressure all the time.
52:45Their offensive line was quite literally one of the worst, uh, offensive lines that you've seen, um, in the past, like five years.
52:52And so I think with a little bit more time to throw, you're going to see, um, a guy like Garrett Wilson really stand out this year.
53:00I'm not worried about all the weapons that they added in the first round.
53:05I think those are, those guys are good players that could like support your, could support the team this season, but they still need some development.
53:13Like Sadiq isn't a guy that's going to go out there and get a thousand yards his first year.
53:19He's not a Loveland style type of guy. Um, and same with Omar Cooper.
53:23He's not like a, a, this is like a rookie that's going to go out there and get a thousand yards immediately type of player either.
53:31Like these are two guys that need maybe a year of development before they're able to be a thousand yard type of players.
53:38So I think this is the year to buy in on Garrett Wilson, given like the environment as a whole for him.
53:45Yeah, I think that definitely makes sense. Uh, we've got a question from, uh, one of the viewers, uh, asking how about the commanders wide receiver room?
53:53Do you have any thoughts on that Zane? Yeah, uh, it's a part.
53:57So right now I think I watch a lot, like, so I read a lot of news and then I also watch
54:04a lot of fantasy content to keep myself like abreast of what, what the market is feeling, what people are thinking.
54:11Um, if you look at rankings across so many different websites, people have Terry McLaurin ranked higher than, um, his ADP pretty much across the board.
54:19And most fantasy analysts will tell you that he's a really good pick right now.
54:23And at the moment, I kind of agree, but he goes around guys that I really, really like.
54:29And then I also think that they're super live to add a difference maker, veteran wide receiver, like Stefan Diggs.
54:35Um, from all reports that I've read from the athletic to ESPN, um, they're doing wide receiver two by committee at the moment.
54:42But every time you read an article, it brings up Brandon Ayuk, who now I think is not going to be in the mix.
54:50And then it brings up Stefan Diggs and Stefan Diggs is in this article too, as somebody that I think is still
54:56a really dynamic weapon, uh, someone that can take away from a guy like Terry McLaurin because he is that good still.
55:03Um, so I'm a little bit scared at his cost right now, because if they do sign Stefan Diggs, he's going to drop in, in ADP.
55:11Um, and he goes right next to a guy that I wrote about in this article too, Jalen Waddle that I really, really like.
55:19Um, and so that's why I'm, I'm still a little bit scared to take Terry McLaurin at this moment in time compared to where, what his cost is.
55:27If you were to fall like past DJ Moore, so maybe like five, six picks, like half a round, I'm still, I'm good with taking him.
55:35Cause I think that's probably around where he might end up going if, um, if they do sign Diggs.
55:41Um, but right now it's just, it's not the area that I want to be drafting in.
55:46And if you're talking about the other receivers in the receiver room, um, Antonio Williams, uh, Traylon Burks, uh, those other guys
55:53that are out there, I think they have Deami Brown.
55:56Um, it's, it's a mix of, it's just a mixed bag at the moment.
56:01Um, I do expect them to be in 12 personnel more often.
56:04And so what that does is take away that slot role.
56:08Um, and by all accounts, it sounds like Antonio Williams is more of like that slot role right now.
56:14Uh, so that means that that's going to take away from Antonio, uh, Antonio Williams, uh, route share.
56:19Um, so that means that you're going to get more Bensonat, uh, along with Chigo Conquo.
56:24Um, and so my, my actual favorite pick of all of these commanders, uh, weapons, uh, if you include the tight ends, um, is Chig.
56:32Because I think he's going to set a career high on his route participation.
56:36Um, if I had to guess, so I think his career rate is roughly like 55%.
56:41If I had to guess, I think he'll be north of 70, which is really, really strong for a tight end, especially
56:48for a tight end that's going later on. Um, now I'm not saying this is a guy that can get a thousand yards.
56:55Like that is very few tight ends, but it's, could he in a really strong situation, um, end up with 800 yards?
57:02Yes. I think that's, he's totally live to get 800 yards this season.
57:06And that would be a really strong payoff at his cost.
57:09I think he's going at like 140, 145. Yeah.
57:12Yeah. Something like that. So it, it, it definitely makes him intriguing, uh, you know, and plus if he's getting anywhere close
57:19to a hundred targets, which would likely be the case if they don't add anybody to the wide receiver room, you know,
57:26I, I think, you know, the, the digs thesis probably has more effect on Chig than it has on, uh, McLaurin.
57:32But, you know, I think it's fair to say, uh, you know, McLaurin will definitely go a little bit cheaper.
57:38And for that reason, um, I've also been kind of, you know, not, I'm, I'm still taking him some, but I'm not
57:45taking him unless he drops just a little bit from where he normally goes.
57:50So, uh, but Chig is the one that I've been kind of just taking if he falls a little bit and he's
57:56somebody that if I see they don't add a digs or somebody like that, then I'm going to start jumping into a lot more.
58:04And just, uh, from that, have you taken a look at the tight end position through the this lens at all?
58:10Or is that anything that you're thinking about doing at any point?
58:14The tight ends don't run deep as often. Um, but if you do think about it from a tight end perspective, there's
58:21guys like Kyle Pitts in 2023, um, who they effectively put in a deep route role.
58:26Um, and the biggest comparison that I have for him is Terrence Ferguson from last year.
58:31And Terrence Ferguson was a, um, you know, not a full-time player last year, but he had basically like a 35% route participation in 2025.
58:38Um, all reports about him are that they're kind of viewing him as their wide receiver three in this offense at the
58:45moment, if they don't sign like a veteran free agent.
58:48Um, and so him being a wide receiver three for them, he's going to, the way that they're thinking about deploying him
58:55is kind of similar to how Tutu Atwell was deployed, which we know is more of like the deep route, like sacrificial somewhat type of role.
59:03Um, and so Terrence Ferguson kind of fits more of the Kyle Pitts profile of what happened in 2023, where Kyle Pitts ran a lot of routes.
59:12Um, he was on the field a lot for, for the, for the team, but he was a big fantasy disappointment for
59:18everybody because he only got like 600 yards. Um, now 600 yards for a, if you're looking at best ball specifically, and
59:25you're thinking about Terrence Ferguson in round 18, that's a great pick from a tight end.
59:30But if you're thinking about like redraft, uh, is this guy going to be on my lineup?
59:35Am I going to be able to count on a week to week?
59:39No, it's going to be super volatile. Um, and he's going to bust more often than not.
59:45Maybe he'll have one or two spike weeks this entire season.
59:48Um, and that's worth it as an 18th round best ball pick, but it's so much of a headache for managing.
59:55Yeah. So if you do, there's, there aren't too many like deep threat wide tight ends that end up coming into play.
60:01But if there are some, um, the one that, that stands out right now is Terrence Curtis.
60:07Makes sense. All right. Um, let's circle back around to the rookie.
60:10Somebody was asking about Makai Lemon, uh, earlier in the show.
60:14Um, does your research lead you towards drafting any of the rookie wide receivers where they're going in drafts or are you
60:21just waiting to see what happens on them? Uh, so, you know, I've, I'm maybe famously somewhat fading Carnell Tate.
60:27Um, but I will say this, my perspective on fades aren't that I'm not going to take this guy like ever.
60:33I'm building a portfolio. When I draft, I'm building a portfolio.
60:37If I had one draft, I would not take Carnell Tate.
60:40Um, I think the talent is immense. Uh, I think the situation is, is not good for fantasy currently.
60:46Um, if anyone's following me, you can, you can tell based off of some of my Titans tweets, uh, that one, I
60:53believe that he's going to be in more of that X receiver role.
60:57I would, I wouldn't say that he's going to be a 25% plus deep threat player.
61:02Um, but in college he was really good at the deep plays.
61:05Like that, that's one of the traits that were really attractive about him.
61:09That doesn't mean he can't do the intermediate and short stuff too.
61:13Um, but when you look at like the players around him, it kind of shows you what the different players might end up doing.
61:21Right. So they added Wondell Robinson to a sizable contract in the off season.
61:25Um, Wondell Robinson is normally a shorter, uh, average depth of route and average depth of target player.
61:30Um, so he's going to operate in more of that short and intermediate role.
61:35And then if you look at the O-line rankings that every single person has, um, and if you just read the tea
61:42leaves of, Hey, they've got like three interior lineman positions.
61:45Um, that are kind of up in the air.
61:47Uh, you should be scared about that offensive line for the Titans.
61:51And when it, when you have poor offensive line play, especially from on the interior, you end up seeing quick pressure and
61:58quick pressure usually means getting the ball out play.
62:01Right. You look at players that have a 2.5 second, like, uh, passes within 2.5 seconds.
62:06Um, that's when you start to see guys basically lean into this like short play role.
62:11Um, and that's what you're going to get Wondell Robinson.
62:14If projection wise, if you're just like thinking about it, stratifying it in my head right now, um, I think Wondell and
62:21Carnell Tate basically will get the same amount of yards.
62:24And it just depends on, and I don't want to be a hot take artist, but I actually think that they will
62:31get roughly the same amount of yards. You're talking about a guy that goes, you know, at pick one 20 or something
62:37or one 15 versus a guy that's going at like 65 or 66 or something like that.
62:43So that's the one where I'm like, these two things just kind of don't, don't match up for me as well.
62:49Uh, I don't know if you have a question on that though.
62:53Cause like, I know the guy asked about McKay Lemon.
62:56I'll get to him too. But, um, if you have something to say on Carnell Tate versus Wondell, I'm open to it.
63:03No, I think that, I think you're looking at it the right way.
63:07And, um, you know, the way I look at it is Wondell, you know, if they get to the same number of
63:14yards and it's going to be a smash for Wondell because he's going to get so many more receptions on the way.
63:20Unless, uh, Colonel Tate just happens to be, you know, a huge touchdown monster somehow.
63:25Um, so I'm, I'm with you there. Um, yeah.
63:28What about, uh, McKay Lemon, uh, Jordan Tyson, any of those guys?
63:31Yeah. So with McKay Lemon one, I think this, this could be a little bit of a hot take to people too,
63:38but I think he's their primary slot player. Um, so, uh, what does that mean from a fantasy angle?
63:44Uh, I'm not a hundred percent sure that he will be on the field in every single situation.
63:50Now they spent a first round pick on him.
63:52Does that mean that they're guaranteed to give him like, uh, you know, every single down, every single route roll.
63:59I actually did an analysis on this, this off season.
64:02Um, and for the most part, these guys end up getting 70% route shares at some point in the season.
64:08Um, it's these like, like 20th, like 19th, 20th round 20th, like area picks, like, uh, like a McKay Lemon.
64:14A lot of it still starts out early where they're doing like 60% route shares, um, and then eventually getting to 70 ish.
64:21The problem is, is that, um, I think that this team wants to be in two tight end sets sometimes too.
64:28Uh, they added, they changed coordinators to Sean Mannion.
64:31Um, Sean Mannion is coming from the Mike, uh, the, uh, Matt LeCleur, uh, offense where they do a lot of tight, two tight end sets.
64:39They added Eli Stowers, who I think is going to be more of a like very short time player, but they'll probably
64:45try to find specialized situations for them to get him into the game.
64:49And he'll probably end up being in like that slot role.
64:53So he's going to share the slot a little bit with Eli Stowers.
64:57And then I think Dontavian Wicks is the outside receiver.
65:00Um, uh, and so that, that like scares me when it comes to a playing time perspective, like there's fewer and fewer receivers.
65:07Someone asked this in the chat too earlier, I saw it.
65:10Is it true that wide receiver two is dead?
65:13I wouldn't say always, but there's fewer and fewer receivers that are getting to 70 plus percent route share every single year.
65:20Um, we're seeing teams deploy rotations, uh, people putting people in specialized skill sets.
65:24Um, and so I'm worried about it. The good thing is, is that I do expect him to be in the short role, right?
65:32Uh, comparative to Dontavian Wicks, um, and others. The only problem that I have with that is that the, the fit with,
65:39um, Jalen Hurts, um, attacking the middle of the field.
65:42Jalen Hurts is notably like way better when it comes to targeting the outside, like beyond the hash mark, like receivers, mainly deep throws.
65:49He's one of the guys that you're like, well, maybe I want to lean into the deep threat a little bit more.
65:56Um, and so that, that's what scares me off of, uh, uh, off of McKay Lemon.
66:01Um, again, I said this earlier, but I want to caveat some of these things that I ended up saying that my
66:08general thesis around this is that you can't, if you're doing a portfolio, you can't feed every single player.
66:14Um, that's early round picks because you never know when you need a guy like McKay Lemon, who let's say Tavonta Smith
66:20is out and they just have to put them in at like a Z receiver type of role.
66:26Um, and he's doing a bunch of different nuanced things.
66:29You don't fade that because you're going to end up, if you get 2% of him, like that team could still end
66:36up winning because of the role that he ends up having when it matters in, you know, week 15, 16, 17.
66:42But for the most part, when I'm building a portfolio, what's the most likely thing to happen?
66:48That's when I'm starting to like fade guys a little bit more.
66:51Um, and McKay Lemon would, would fit into that profile a little bit for me.
66:56Yeah, that makes sense here. You know, I think when the season starts, it just basically is, you know, like a, a
67:03giant 50 car pileup on the freeway. You know, you just don't know exactly what's going to happen once the season starts.
67:10And there's so much chaos going on that, you know, you know, we think we have everything solved, um, you know, in
67:16July and August and early September, and then all the season, the season starts and we see guys in different roles than
67:23what we expected or injuries changing the way that teams go about, um, attacking, you know, the defense.
67:29There's just so many different things that can happen.
67:32And if you, if you go into it, I think with, um, with your mind made up too much and that I'm
67:38going to hard fade, you know, a whole lot of players and I'm going to really be super heavy on, uh, a
67:45few players, uh, that can end, that will probably end up burning you unless you just happen to be incredibly lucky.
67:52Yeah, I completely agree. Um, the other thing with, with Makai Lemon is that, uh, you know, I actually noticed this before
67:58even the beat writers noticed this, but I saw a clip of him with a sleeve on his leg and I knew
68:05that I did not see him with a sleeve on his leg in previous practices.
68:10And it turns out he was missing practice that day with the hamstring issue.
68:14And I speculated that, uh, before anyone else got to it.
68:18And I don't like seeing rookies start, start off with any sort of soft tissue things.
68:23He's going to be fine for training camp for the start of training camp.
68:27But, but now you just know that there's like some twinge there.
68:31Um, and this next guy that we're talking about too, Jordan Tyson also has the same issue.
68:36Um, and that's my scare with him. I think that he's, he's actually the rookie that I would target out of any
68:43of these guys, um, that we're talking about between him, Makai Lemon and Carnell Tate.
68:47I think he has the chance to do, uh, have the biggest like role, biggest like effect in fantasy, uh, could be
68:54a smash, all that kind of stuff. The only concern with, uh, for me with, with, uh, Jordan Tyson is whether he can stay healthy.
69:02Um, and I do think that he would more so take on that intermediate, um, and short role than a Chris Olave.
69:09Chris Olave is like a premier, uh, somewhat deep threat.
69:12They, they've allowed him to do like the intermediate and short a little bit more than like your typical deep threat.
69:18But he's a really good, deep, deep wide receiver.
69:21Um, and now that they have like an actual, um, useful wide receiver too at play that doesn't, doesn't necessarily do it the same way he does.
69:29Like they had Rashid Shahid with him before. And so like, even him had similar talents where you're kind of saying like,
69:36Hey, we're going to send you on a, on a go ball.
69:40Um, and now you've got Jordan Tyson who can operate in like tighter spaces and do kind of like the short area stuff, a true like slant God.
69:49Um, I can see Chris Olave working deeper or often this year with Jordan Tyson, taking more of the short intermediate stuff
69:55on slants and different things like that. And so I, I really liked Jordan Tyson.
70:00I think he could be a really good pick.
70:03We just need him to be healthy. Um, and we don't know if that's going to be the case, but.
70:09I like hearing that though, because I've been very strong on Jordan Tyson this entire off season.
70:14And the only thing that's been stopping me from hitting the button even more often is that the hammies and, uh, just
70:21worried about the, you know, the possibility of injury.
70:24Uh, one, one more quick one before we get you out of here, but, um, any interest in either of the Cleveland rookie wide receivers?
70:32Yeah. So the, the, the reports out of camp have been really interesting.
70:36Um, I actually think both are really good talents.
70:38I think Casey conception was probably drafted five to 10 picks too late in the real draft.
70:44I think that he is a really good, strong, really good receiver.
70:47I'm less, um, from a talent evaluation standpoint, I put way less value on being able to catch the football than most other people would.
70:55Um, because I think that's a really like, um, there's only a few players that you're like, this guy drops the ball way too much.
71:03Um, and even like, if you look at drops year over year, uh, they don't always translate to the same players.
71:09There are players that we think about like Dontavian Wicks and A.D.
71:13Mitchell where we're like, these guys can't catch the ball.
71:16But for the most part, guys that drop the ball, like are usually okay, catch the ball in most situations.
71:22Um, so I'm not as worried about that with him.
71:25And then Denzel Boston, I also thought was a first round talent, um, this year, uh, was a little bit surprised that
71:32he fell because the importance that people, the premium that people put on, uh, first round wide receivers, um, or that people
71:39put on receivers in general in the NFL. And the contracts that we're seeing for even a guy like Alec Pierce, who
71:46truly does run like wind sprints a lot in the game.
71:49Um, and so I thought that Denzel Boston would have, would have been a first round pick.
71:54So I think both of those guys are really good talents.
71:58Now, when we go to the reports of what happened at a training camp, um, they, they really liked Denzel Boston as an outside receiver.
72:06Um, and so I think that, and I do think that this team is live to do some, you know, 12 personnel type of stuff.
72:13Uh, with Todd Monk and, uh, at the helm.
72:16So I think that if you're targeting one of them, he is going to run more routes than Casey Conception this year.
72:23That's for the full season. Now, if you're looking at it, when you're talking about like mid to late season, do we
72:30think that Jerry Judy eventually kind of goes away by the wayside?
72:33Definitely by end of season. I think that's, what's going to end up happening for Jerry Judy.
72:39Uh, because I don't think this team is going to be competing for anything significant.
72:43Um, and so when you get close to the end of the season, you start seeing these veterans kind of like, all right, I've got a little bruise.
72:52I'm sitting for, for this week. Um, so I think Casey Conception might be like the, the guy, the guy you want for the playoffs.
73:00But if you're looking for who's going to get like a 75% plus route share, like right out of the gate, it's going to be Denzel Boston.
73:08If I had to, if I had to guess right now.
73:12Yeah, that's, that's interesting. I find myself, uh, definitely taking some Denzel Boston.
73:16I've been getting some, uh, Casey in there, um, when he drops and Jerry Judy, for the most part, I haven't been
73:22interested in, in him unless he really drops. Because I think the only way he's going to really be relevant past the
73:29first few weeks of the year is if they end up trading him to a different team.
73:34Um, I just don't see it otherwise. I think they've got to focus more on their future and I just don't see
73:41Judy as part of the Browns future. I completely agree.
73:44And I've, I'm also probably the only guy out here.
73:47I'm not a, I'm not a Shador Sanders fan by any means.
73:51Uh, but I do think that he raises the, um, floor for these receivers if he is the quarterback, because he is
73:58not afraid to just throw the ball up into like triple coverage and make tight window throws.
74:03And just like YOLO balls is exactly what he does.
74:06Um, and I think that that can translate to random spikes.
74:10Like you think that, do I think that Deshaun Watson is going to get 350 passing yards in a game?
74:16I don't. Do I think that Shador Sanders will probably not, but I actually think that he has a stronger chance of
74:23doing it because he's not afraid to just launch it and put it into like really poor situations.
74:28Terrible, um, NFL quarterback. Could be something that's worth something for fantasy.
74:32It's like, it's, it's like a Jameis Winston light situation where you're like, all right, Jameis through like 27 interceptions one season with like 28 touchdowns or something.
74:41I don't remember the exact numbers, but I could see a situation where in one game, Shador has three touchdowns and three interceptions.
74:48And that's just what ends up happening. And, and, and that's what we want to see for fantasy.
74:53We want guys that are going to put things in, uh, in traffic and let their players like make plays and, and
75:00be unafraid to just get rid of it. Yeah.
75:03Jameis is the dream fantasy quarterback because he's a one man fantasy carnival.
75:07He's, he's just making points for everybody, making points for the defense, making points for his own team.
75:12Uh, we, we love to see it. So, all right.
75:16Well, Zane, uh, I appreciate you joining me today.
75:18Um, we'll go ahead and get you out of here.
75:21Normally we try to keep the show down to about 60 minutes or so, but we're, we're going long because it's been so good.
75:29So we appreciate that. Remind us again where we can listen to you and find your work.
75:34Yeah. So I've got two things. Um, my written content you can find on fantasy points.com.
75:39Uh, most of my articles will end up being free.
75:42I am going to release something that I've been tracking through camp along with stats that go and support or don't support those, uh, those news blurbs.
75:51And then, um, I do have my own, uh, YouTube channel.
75:54Um, the cut up show is what you can find.
75:57Um, yeah, where I'm streaming it from the, from there right now as well.
76:01Uh, and then you can find me on Twitter at Danani Zane also.
76:05Awesome. Awesome. And for my audience, uh, thank you for watching or listening.
76:09Uh, make sure that you're hitting the like button.
76:12Uh, it's free. It's easy. And if you can leave a review wherever you happen to be consuming this show, uh, make sure you're tuning in too.
76:21Next Thursday, I'm going to be talking to Jared Smola.
76:24He's another great data analyst and a very sharp drafter.
76:27Uh, so looking forward to that as well. My goal is always to bring you to the best and brightest of the fantasy football world.
76:34So make sure you subscribe to the player profiler network on YouTube and your podcast provider.
76:39You don't want to miss a single show. That's it for this week.
76:43So until next week, get out there and dominate your drafts.
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