Week 4 Gillcast
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
45 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 5, 2026
Published
Mon, October 5, 2026
22
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Kenneth Walker IIIT.J. HockensonAaron JonesBrock PurdyChase BrownChristian McCaffreyDontayvion WicksGeorge KittleJa'Marr ChaseJeremiyah LoveJordan AddisonJosh AllenJustin JeffersonKyler Murray
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeBust0:20
Aaron Jones is described as a poor chalk play who failed to break the slate. The source notes the Vikings' offense does not prioritize running backs in the red zone or passing game, limiting his upside despite his high ownership.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveRole41:50
The source notes that the 49ers have shifted their offensive philosophy to rely more on Brock Purdy, who is playing at a high level. The team is now building their game plan around Purdy's ability to execute, which has contributed to the team's undefeated start.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeBust0:13
The source argues Chase Brown was not an optimal play despite his high reception count, labeling him the 'most Dario Ugunbowale running back of all time' and noting his production was heavily dependent on Jamar Chase leaving the game.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage40:19
The source suggests that Christian McCaffrey is no longer the focal point of the 49ers' offense, comparing his current fantasy outlook to Javante Williams. While he may still have high-scoring games, the team is no longer building their game plan around him, and he lacks the 'juice' compared to other running backs like Kenneth Walker.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
NegativeBust42:36
The source expresses strong regret for playing Dontayvion Wicks, labeling him a 'bad play' and 'dog shit' despite his low price point. The source notes that while Wicks was considered a necessary play due to the absence of Devonta Smith, he failed to deliver value in a struggling Eagles offense.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeBust29:02
George Kittle is described as a 'straight up bust' for most of the game until he caught a 60-yard touchdown pass, saving his fantasy performance.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeInjury43:18
The source notes that Ja'Marr Chase suffered an injury which negatively impacted the performance of lineups he was included in.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeInjury15:44
Jeremiah Love was a highly owned running back who failed to deliver because he suffered a knee hyperextension in the second quarter, forcing him out of the game.
Insight pageJordan Addison
NegativeBust0:23
The source labels Jordan Addison as the 'definition of the worst chalk play of all time,' criticizing the decision to heavily roster him as Kyler Murray's top receiver.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveValue10:25
The source notes that spending up for Josh Allen was a winning strategy on this slate, as the pricing allowed for a 'spend-up' approach at quarterback while still fitting other high-priced studs.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeUsage1:49
The source notes that Justin Jefferson's absence created a vacuum for targets, which the market incorrectly assumed would automatically translate to massive volume for T.J. Hockenson.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage0:00
The source highlights Kenneth Walker as a 'goat' and a smash play, noting he delivered a massive performance with 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns, despite being only 7-8% owned in major GPP contests.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout40:30
The source identifies Kenneth Walker as a 'ball-knowing' play with significant upside, noting that he possesses more 'juice' than Christian McCaffrey. The source claims that computer models are currently failing to catch up to Walker's true value, making him a must-have player in best ball formats.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeBust63:50
The source expresses a negative outlook on Kyler Murray, stating that he 'sucks' and that the 'Kyler Murray derangement syndrome' should be over. The source notes that Murray's performance has been consistently poor, and his physical limitations, specifically his height, hinder his ability to see the field effectively.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeUsage48:46
The source discusses Parker Washington's high ownership, noting that while he received significant volume, his performance was underwhelming. The source suggests that his high ownership was a fair topic of debate but ultimately views his performance as a standard variance event rather than a signal to change future strategy.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveUsage26:38
Puka Nacua is described as a unique alpha receiver with high targets per route run. The source notes that despite lower route participation (70-75% when healthy), he remains a cash-game staple when confirmed to have no restrictions.
Insight pageSam Darnold
PositiveValue44:20
The source mentions that Sam Darnold stacks were appearing in lineups that were simulating well in their models, though the speaker personally struggled to commit to playing them.
Insight pageT.J. Hockenson
NegativeBust0:46
Despite a high-reception game, the source remains highly critical of T.J. Hockenson, calling him 'dusty' and 'stinky,' and arguing that his volume was an outlier event that will not be repeated.
Insight pagePositiveValue35:27
The source highlights T.J. Hockenson as the best value-adjusted play on the slate, noting that he was the highest-owned tight end despite many players fading him. The source argues that fantasy managers should trust the computer projections for volume and targets, as Hockenson's role provides consistent upside regardless of perceived talent level.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
NegativeValue5:40
Trevor Lawrence was highly owned (70%) due to his affordability and a favorable matchup, but the source argues his fantasy production has been merely average, making the high ownership questionable.
Insight pageTyler Higbee
PositiveValue18:48
The source defends playing Tyler Higbee over T.J. Hockenson, noting he ran all the routes and was second on the Rams in targets, making him a sharp, value-based play.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
PositiveSleeper7:13
Tyson Bagent is highlighted as a sharp, system-based play due to the Ben Johnson offensive scheme. The source regrets not playing him, noting his rushing upside and the favorable matchup against the Jets.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00enough people are respecting my goat, Kenneth Walker, play of the day.
0:04Frankly, it was a chalkpocalypse today. A bunch of the high-priced guys got absolutely sunned.
0:09All of the good smash receivers were not owned in cash games or in GPPs.
0:13You might think, oh, Chase Brown had a billion receptions today.
0:17Surely he was optimal. Nope. No, he was not.
0:20Not even close to optimal. Aaron Jones, not close to optimal.
0:23Jordan Addison. Jordan Addison's got to be the definition of the worst chalk play of all time.
0:29Is there a worse thing to ape into than Kyler Murray's top receiver as absolutely stone chalk in fantasy football?
0:35That's got to be as bad as it gets, dude.
0:38I can't really imagine. I mean, ugh. And the thing I'm tilting about, I had a great day, so I'm not really that mad.
0:46But TJ Hawkinson racking up like an NFL record of receptions, enough already.
0:50I send that shit back, dude. I'm sending that shit.
0:53Nate, I know you're going to tell me like, oh, the Whopper and whatever.
0:58No, dude. Hawkinson, I'm not having it. I'm sending that shit back.
1:02Yeah, it's really tough. I mean, football is so high variance.
1:05You never know who these targets are going to go to.
1:09And when someone like Justin Jefferson's out, how could we possibly know that TJ Hawkinson is going to get incredible volume at
1:16his price tag and going to be a smash play in cash games?
1:20If only 70% of the field would have known.
1:23Oh, wait, they did because it was obvious that this was going to happen and this was the most predictable outcome of all time.
1:30No, no, it was not. It most certainly was not the most predictable outcome because TJ Hawkinson absolutely blows, dude.
1:37He blows. This will never happen again. This guy stinks, dude.
1:40No. He's dusty. He's so dusty. Like, it is unbelievable.
1:43We've seen it time and time again where it's like, oh, the number one receiver's out.
1:49Obviously, this guy's going to get the vacated targets and it doesn't work out like that.
1:54And you sunran. How many? 13 receptions? Is that what he got?
1:57I did not sunrun. Do you realize he was 43% owned in cash games?
2:02He was by far the most high owned tight end of like the slate.
2:06The optos spit it out. Yeah. Because the optos are aware of how to build projections.
2:12And when you don't have Justin Jefferson in the lineup.
2:15The optos made, the optos had a huge, huge, huge, huge, huge, huge mistake today, which we are, we are most certainly going to get into.
2:23This chat of he's had four targets last week.
2:26Justin Jefferson was, this is, this is. Justin Jefferson played five snaps last week.
2:30No, Nate. No. He had the whole week of game planning.
2:34They knew Justin Jefferson was going to be out.
2:37He had the whole week of game planning. Yes.
2:40TJ Hawkinson, like this was predictable. That's why he was 50% owned in cash games.
2:44This was not a 2% outcome. This was a predictable outcome.
2:48No, TJ Hawkinson having double digit receptions. How many times do you think in his life, TJ Hawkinson has had double digit receptions a game?
2:56I'm willing to bet. It was a career high.
2:59It was a career high for sure. It's got to be, it's got to be less than, it's got to be, he's done it in his career.
3:07TJ Hawkinson, double digit receptions. This is only the four.
3:11This is only the fifth time he's ever done it.
3:14Yeah. If only, how could we have known after Dalton Schultz week two or other, you know, all these, all of a
3:21sudden when, when the high volume wide receivers are out, these tight ends get these dump offs.
3:26Anyway, I played, I played tight end correctly because I'm smart and I know more about football than the TJ Hawkinson mouth
3:33breathers, which we most certainly are going to, to get to.
3:37Uh, I, here's actually where I want to start.
3:40I want to start with why did everyone decide that Trevor Lawrence just like had to be played?
3:45Like, why did, well, I played Trevor Lawrence, but why, like, why did we, why did we do this?
3:51What Trevor Lawrence is a totally cromulent fantasy football option, but why was Trevor Lawrence 70% owned?
3:57I think this was bad. I think, I think Trevor Lawrence.
4:00Cause he was, cause he was affordable. Cause he was affordable.
4:04He was playing a really shit defense in a game that project.
4:08And he's been playing out of his fucking skull for like the last 10 weeks or so going back to last year.
4:15So I thought it made a lot of sense.
4:18I didn't play him. He's been playing, he's been playing fine.
4:21He's been playing fine, but his fantasy numbers, I mean, his fantasy numbers have been average.
4:26Like, it's not like, it's not like he is, is totally killing it.
4:30I tell you who I wanted to play Nate.
4:33I wanted to play secret pageant. I really, really did.
4:36I couldn't, I couldn't justify it in the end, but I really did want to play pageant at the end of the day.
4:44I was like, he's 4,800. He's going to run a little bit.
4:48Now in the end, he ended up not getting any touchdowns.
4:51So it was no good. But if you tell me that the bear, like, if you would have told me before the
4:58slate, the bears have more first downs than the jets have plays.
5:02I'm, I'm jamming Baygent in cash. Absolutely jamming. Yeah.
5:05I mean, yeah, he had like eight yards in his hands.
5:08Like it was, it was a good play. I think.
5:12Yeah. The, the, the Baygent thing. I mean, after what he's done in preseason, after just watching what Ben Johnson did with
5:19case Keenum, like, yes, we should have, we should have played because it's not a talent play.
5:24It's like a, it's a Ben Johnson. It's an offense.
5:27It's a system play. It's a system play. And it's like, I do feel dumb that I didn't consider him more.
5:34I don't think Lawrence was bad. I don't think Lawrence was bad, but I just like, you know, that we, they're like, this is always what happens.
5:42Whoever the quarterback is in the train team is like a billion percent owned, but I did not play the train team.
5:50I should have been more of a free thinker.
5:52And I was not, I was not, I was just like, I got to just play Lawrence, dude.
5:58I got to just do Lawrence. And I feel like it, it, it ultimately is fine, but I do.
6:04I think Baygent was almost in fairness. In fairness, I was a free thinker.
6:09I played Tyson Baygent, like a true, we're going to get, we're going to get to what you did, buddy.
6:15We're going to get, we're going to get the blade.
6:18So yeah. Um, all right. So whatever, uh, we, we can get to, we can get, well, Nate, you, I mean, I
6:25don't know what, I don't want to go through your whole lineup yet, but I will just, I will just spoil the
6:32fact that you played Josh Allen in cash. I mean this Nate just showing up with these, the all the way spend
6:39up at quarterback or the all the way spend up at defense is it's my favorite thing.
6:45It's my, my absolute favorite is when Nate just shows up and he's just like, yeah, dude, I spent $8,000 on Josh Allen.
6:52I frankly, Nate, I'm surprised you didn't show up with the $4,000 Vikings defense in this spot.
6:57Honestly, all week I was like, did, did draft Kings give me a bonus?
7:02Do I have more salary than everybody else? I was able to build lineups this week.
7:07And I'm like, this is, I'm getting Jamar chase.
7:10I'm getting Christian McCaffrey. I'm getting George Kittle. I'm getting Josh Allen.
7:14I'm getting Chase Brown. I like, I'm getting, I was like building these teams and I'm like, I feel like I have more dollars available.
7:22This was the softest week four slate. I can remember pricing wise.
7:26You could do anything. You could do anything. I mean, look, you, you could, you could do anything.
7:31I actually, frankly, and I think in my lineup, I ended up leaving $500 of salary in my lineup.
7:37Cause it was just like, I couldn't spend all of it with the guys I ended up wanting to play.
7:44I never considered playing Josh Allen. I did. Um, so the thing, the thing that I considered trying to spend more money
7:51on was on, uh, wide receiver three. I was trying to get Puka Nakua, Parker Washington, and Garrett Wilson, all at wide
7:58receiver, which just ended up, um, not working. So I, I guess the other thing that we should talk about in terms
8:05of chalk that everyone knew was a terrible, uh, as it was happening was Aaron Jones.
8:10I mean, Aaron Jones, what did, what did he get me in?
8:14Aaron Jones ends up with 16 draft Kings points, which is like, so that, that to me, Aaron Jones hitting 90, like 16 points.
8:21Doesn't that feel about like his 92nd percentile outcome?
8:24Like he, he projected so good. He projected for a million points.
8:28And I'm like, we all know Aaron Jones is not breaking the slate.
8:32The Vikings don't throw to the running back. They don't run in the red zone.
8:37And guess what? Aaron Jones doesn't get any receiving work.
8:40He has four, I guess he does have four receptions for 34 yards, got no touches inside the 10, 16 points, no
8:47bonus, no touchdown is great because that's always what Aaron Jones is going to do.
8:52He's never going to get the bonus and he's never going to score.
8:56It's like, normally I would say like, Oh, you just play the 90% on running back or whatever.
9:02You just do it in cash. But there are, there are so, there were so many plays at running back.
9:08There were like, just looking at the, at the running back.
9:12Like I thought about playing McCaffrey. I thought about playing Walker.
9:15I thought about playing Henry. I thought about playing chase Brown.
9:19I thought about playing love. I thought about playing Swift.
9:22I thought about playing Javante. Like there were like so many passable plays at running back that I mean, in the, in
9:29the massive 25, actually, you know what? This is shocking.
9:32What do you think he was owned in the, in the massive $25?
9:36I don't know. 30, 40, dude, 34%. I thought it would be way higher.
9:41You know, who was the most owned running back?
9:44Fucking Jeremiah love Jeremiah love. Yeah. There must've been one site that projected Jeremiah Love above Jones.
9:49Cause Jeremiah Love was like, he was jammed everywhere.
9:52He was jammed in tournaments. He was jammed everywhere.
9:55So, um, he, he was projected really good, but also all the content and the shows were on Jeremiah love.
10:01I will say it's very tempting to, to sneer and laugh at the Jeremiah love players.
10:06He, he basically got injured. He got injured in the second quarter.
10:10And that's why out here, uh, played for, for most of the game.
10:14He, he, I think there was a thread explaining that he like hyper extended his knee basically.
10:20And that's why out gear played for most of the second half.
10:24Um, I played, I played Jeremiah love and frankly, I played Jeremiah love instead of chase Brown.
10:29And after watching that game, I feel like I was right.
10:33I feel like I was, I feel like I was right.
10:36Chase Brown sucks, dude. He, he, he, he, chase Brown is the most, um, what is, what is like, he's the most
10:43Dario Ugunbowale running back one of, of all time.
10:46Like that is like the only way chase Brown can get there.
10:50What, what was his stat line in the end?
10:53Um, chase Brown, 71 receiving yards on 11 receptions is what is what chase Brown did.
10:58No, no, Todd you're on mute, Nate. He only got that because chase was out.
11:03If chase played the whole game, he wouldn't have that at all.
11:06Yeah. Totally unforeseeable, you know, totally. It was Jamar chase got out.
11:10I mean, it's totally different to have the top receiver go out mid game than it is to have game planning all
11:17week long and know that they're going to get dump offs free to like, all right, well, let's talk about, let's talk
11:24about what, uh, what actually happened, um, in, in these contests.
11:28So I played, uh, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Jones, Jeremiah love Puka Nakua, Parker, Washington, Don Tavian Wicks, Tyler Higbee, instead of Hawkinson,
11:35Ken Walker, the third and the Los Angeles Rams defense.
11:38Um, I mean, Higbee frankly is an all time insane ball.
11:42No, our play, no Colby Parkinson, um, no Terrence Ferguson.
11:45He ran all the routes. He was second on the Los Angeles Rams and targets in a just world in a, in
11:52a world where in a world where you are paid off based on how sharp you are.
11:57I'm getting paid a million dollars for playing Tyler Higbee.
12:00This was so clearly good to play Tyler Higbee five for 67 instead of TJ Hawkinson.
12:06But you know what, Nate, we don't live in a just world.
12:09So instead of that, uh, TJ Hawkinson just absolutely gives me the blade with his fifth double digit reception, uh, game of his career.
12:17I, the Higbee thing, Higbee over Hawkinson, I think is completely, completely defendable.
12:21I really do. I don't, I think you're not, you're not taking into account.
12:26You're not taking into account. This is Puka's back.
12:28Uh, you also played Puka. So you're assuming Puka is getting the volume that Puka gets.
12:34Yeah. I played Puka back. Cause I'm sharp as a fucking nail, dude.
12:38I'm sharp as a, as, as a goddamn samurai sword, which, which means they don't need to have the Higbee dump offs that they need to.
12:46So like, they're going to game plan for Puka.
12:49Uh, Stafford is not the Stafford of old. He is legitimately old.
12:53Now his back is clearly bothering him. He's not as he's, he's not the guy he was last year in the years past.
13:00And I think that like with Puka back, I don't think that the Higbee was like these, the super, the super sharp play.
13:07He's fine. I don't think he was bad, but I don't think he was the sharpest play in the world.
13:14Yeah. I would like to, I would like to cash in my, my Higbee's Klanski box.
13:19Uh, but the, the thing that I did that was clearly that yeah, go ahead, Sammy.
13:24But look, look, I know my reception's bad. My audio shit, but look, Stafford is not playing nearly as well as he
13:31did last year, but he's still King making. He King made parents Ferguson in week two.
13:36He King made Devante Adams for two weeks. He King made Puka Nakua again.
13:41Um, I, I, I agree with this. I think he was mega sharp.
13:45Um, the way to play it though, Davis was obviously just to take all his overs on his picks or underdogs.
13:51His receiving was 3.5 receptions and 30.5 receiving yards.
13:54Took a lot of it. Um, mega sharp play.
13:57Good for you. That, that, that is what I did.
14:00It was one of my, it was one of my only dubs today slid Higbee up to 44 and a half receiving
14:07yards, uh, burden, whatever that was, uh, that was one of the, uh, that was one of the dubs today.
14:14However, I mean, Nate, I feel like allowing me to snatch your chain of taking Puka at 7,500 and playing him in cash.
14:21I feel like that's innate play. I feel like I was surprised.
14:25I mean, we can talk about what you did.
14:28Um, which I actually, I was ready to shit on your lineup.
14:32Uh, I mean, not having Parker Washington is completely insane, but I do think the doing Jamar chase doing Puka Nakua doing
14:39JSN, like whatever it is instead of doing Garrett Wilson.
14:42Cause I think we all have enough experience with Garrett Wilson to know $6,800 massive insane shot.
14:47Garrett Wilson, like, didn't you just kind of have a pit in your stomach about that play?
14:53I know. I know I did. I know I had, I was spending all morning trying to find a way to not play Garrett Wilson.
15:01As obviously my whole deal this morning was, man, I just really don't want it.
15:06Cause what everyone did that the chalk, the chalk lineup or the, the train lineup was Trevor Lawrence, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones,
15:13Jeremiah love Parker, Washington, Garrett Wilson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hawkinson, and the Rams defense.
15:17That was the, so that's three Vikings players and $6,800 Garrett Wilson.
15:21And you know, look, Christian McCaffrey is trying to stave off the bank examiner, but I didn't really want to play Christian McCaffrey either.
15:29Um, like, I think he's, I think he's fine, but I'm not rushing to jam CMC in any of my lineups these days.
15:36Yeah. I mean the, the news about Evans and stuff that came out today and made it look like it was, he was even like worse than expected.
15:45I don't know. I felt good about CMC Kittle.
15:48I thought it was like, that's a great way to get exposure to the San Francisco, like just lock up the touchdown exposure.
15:55But, um, but yeah, here's the thing about Puka.
15:58So Puka is, is a unique alpha receiver in that his route participation is not actually very high.
16:04Uh, so like most 5% and that's when he's fully healthy.
16:07So like fully healthy Puka only runs 70 to 75% of the routes and has an insane targets per route run on
16:14those high on those like low, low route participation already.
16:17And so the news of like, Hey, we're going to let him play as much as his stamina allows.
16:23And it's like, okay, if you already are 75% when you're fully healthy, if you bring that route participation down to like 40, 50%, it's really hard.
16:32You would have to have a target per route run rate of like 60% to get to like a Jamar chase who's
16:39running a hundred percent of the routes. And so I was just like, not knowing with Puka and knowing Jamar chase was
16:46like fully, it was just, I felt fine about the Jamar chase thing.
16:50If chase wasn't on the slate, I probably would have played Puka, but like, I just, I didn't play Puka.
16:57I, and I, I don't know the chase thing, obviously it's like, I'm really happy for you that like you at least
17:04came close to me this week and all it takes you, you fucking sucking out.
17:08I'm actually, I'm actually insanely for you to get close to me is for me to pay up and get Jamar chase three snaps.
17:16No, no, you fucking, and you still can't beat me.
17:19You still can't beat me. Even when I run bad and you run hot, you know, you suck it out with TJ Hawkinson career game is actually insane.
17:28It's actually crazy. I was beating you guys by a million.
17:32I was laughing the field with you guys. My lineup is the nuts.
17:36I'm winning every head to head. And then Nate gets like five receptions from TJ Hawkinson in the fifth quarter.
17:42And then a 60 yard George Kittle touchdown Kittle Kittle is like a straight up bust until that play.
17:48And I'm not Kittle. I actually think was fine.
17:51I was trying to get Kittle. What I was trying to do in my lineup, Nate was I was trying to play Baygent at quarterback.
17:59And I was trying to find Kittle over Higby slash Hawkinson with Walker in the flex.
18:04And it just like, there was no way to make it work.
18:08I would have had to, well, God forbid, I would have had to have fade Parker Washington.
18:14God forbid, you find a way to not get Parker Washington, one reception, seven yards, three rushing yards in your lineup.
18:20Oh, I mean the, the suck out that Nate had to outscore me by what's at one point, 1.37 points or whatever.
18:27I mean, I gave you 27 points at receiver.
18:30It's not a sucker. No, no. You didn't give me 27 points.
18:34I played the right play and got paid for making the right play when they said that Puka was facing no restrictions.
18:41Like Schefter tweeted, like he's just a hundred percent playing.
18:44I don't know how you don't like Puka. We were playing Puka in cash last year at 9,000 draft Kings.
18:51You realize that Hawk ran out at the one yard line.
18:54He took a knee. He could have scored. He did.
18:57He did. He legitimately could have scored. He kneeled.
19:00And then, and then Jones didn't get the score.
19:03I mean, literally I, there was points left on the field.
19:07I beat you with like room. Well, I had, I had Aaron Jones also with three snaps of Jamar chase.
19:13Like it was like you, like you ran hot.
19:16You ran hot versus me. No, I did not.
19:19No, I did not run hot. I am the goat.
19:22Kenneth Walker had 200 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
19:25You ran hot. Yeah, I'm the goat. I played Kenneth Walker instead of Christian McCaffrey.
19:30Look at all the, look at all these people in the, in the $50 double up.
19:35I got to pull the, I got to pull the, the double up ownership's up.
19:39Cause it's absolutely hilarious. People 7% own Ken Walker in the, this is the, this is the massive 25.
19:45This is the, this is the biggest one. 7%.
19:48You got it. You got it, dude. 8% Puka, 7% Walker.
19:52You got to give it to me, dude. You absolutely have got to give it to me.
19:57That is putting it on the table and saying, I know ball and being rewarded for knowing ball.
20:03You got, you have to hand it to me.
20:06Yeah. But if Puka runs 15 routes this game, are you thinking you ran bad?
20:11Yeah. So like, but that's not running bad. That's like, that's a legitimate, like, you don't know how many routes he's going to run.
20:18So like you did take a, getting injured mid game is different than coming into a game questionable and not knowing how many routes they're going to run.
20:27Like, I don't know. I just think like injuries.
20:30I would not have played Puka. I would not have played Puka without the Schefter tweet saying no restrictions.
20:36I would not have played him. I would have, I would have played the same chalk donkey lineup that everyone played.
20:43I would have played the Garrett Wilson, Jordan Addison one.
20:46I would have, I would McCaffrey. And I would, I assume that lineup lost.
20:51Oh, it had to have. Yeah. It had to have.
20:54Yeah. So I would have played, I would have played that lineup.
20:58I was actually trying to get to, um, I think this is what Wiggins played, but I was trying to get to, um, what is it?
21:06Uh, Lawrence McCaffrey, Chase Brown, Puka, Pwash, Addison, Hawkinson, Kittle, Rams, um, would have been too tight.
21:11And the two tight end thing was the move.
21:14There's no doubt in my mind that too tight end was the right way to play on this slate.
21:20I think that both Hawkinson, both Kittle, um, and Higby, uh, those three at their price was like some of the best
21:27value adjusted, like workload expectation on the slate. So I think getting those two tight, getting two tight ends, I think, however
21:34you built was going to get you more expected draft Kings points than any other fucking playing Josh Allen, Nate losing his
21:41mind and playing Josh Allen and just like easily getting there is crazy.
21:45It's cause he got, he got 45 draft Kings points out of eight grand in salary from two tight ends.
21:52Like, you know, I hate to say it, but Nate is just windmill dunking these tight ends on us day after day, week after week.
22:00It is max fucking pain. I should have, I should have taken, I should have taken every when I knew I wasn't playing Hawkinson.
22:08I should have just taken every slider 10. Like what would, what would this have paid on underdog?
22:13This would have paid a hundred to one. This would have been an insane payout on, on DK or on underdog or
22:20whatever you, you could have Nate, whatever you made today in DFS, you could have quintupled if you would have just done the TJ Hawkinson mega all overs.
22:29Yeah. I mean, I just think you guys are like, you're acting like I played like a 4% on tight end.
22:36He was the highest to own tight end of the slate.
22:39No, I know he was. And I just, this was not like a, this was not a one-off play.
22:45This was like a, the guy who projected going into the slate as the best value adjusted play of the slate, you
22:53guys faded and then are shocked that it dunked on you.
22:56I'm not, I'm not, I'm not shocked. I just thought Higby was easily going to outscore him.
23:01And frankly, when he had, what do you have five for 67?
23:05I was like, okay, well I'm going to, I'm going to give the blade.
23:10I thought this was the most four for 44 game for Hawkinson of all time.
23:15Yeah. Obviously like same. Yeah. Yeah. But I just think that, yeah, we got to move on, but I think go to Sammy's lineup.
23:22Sammy. We got to talk about what Sammy did.
23:25I was hoping we skipped this part. John, Sammy.
23:28Dude, playing, playing Bajan and not getting to an 8k wide receiver.
23:32I, where did your money go? Where did the money go?
23:35I think, I think DraftKings gave me 2,000 extra.
23:38I got to an 8k receiver at the end for 6,900.
23:42That's what I did. I played big cock Brock Bowers.
23:45No, that was a great play. I, I'm, I, you know, I just got mogged by TJ Hawkinson.
23:51Like Hawkinson goes four for 44 and Bowers matches and I just win and it didn't work out that way.
23:57I will say, I will say this. I, I actually, I, I truly think, I think the Bowers play was dog shit.
24:04I think if you played Bajan, you should have done, I think Bajan, I actually think before the slate, during the slate,
24:11after the slate, I think the Bajan people played the best, but using Bajan to get to Bowers and, and, use, like McCaffrey is the spend.
24:19I think we, we're a month into the season.
24:22I think we can officially say the, the, the McCaffrey is no longer the guy.
24:27Like the bank examiner is coming for McCaffrey, dude.
24:30He's, he's fine. He's a good play. I will take the L here because Ken Walker is a ball knowing play.
24:37Ken Walker has the juice and Christian McCaffrey does not have the juice.
24:41And at some point you want running back that has the juice and, you know, McCaffrey just doesn't have it.
24:47And you know, you know, McCaffrey is now, but McCaffrey is, he is Javante Williams.
24:52Like he's still going to have some really good games where he scores like three touchdowns or whatever, but the, the team
24:59is not going into the game being like, yeah, dude, we really got to build the plane out of, out of Christian McCaffrey, Javante Williams.
25:07Frankly, I think they're, Brock Bowers is the man now.
25:10I, well, I think, I think now I was going to say they're building the plane at a party now.
25:16I think, I think Shanahan goes into a game being like, I'm going to let, I'm going to let Purdy do his thing.
25:24And it's, I mean, it's clearly working, right? I mean, Purdy is playing awesome.
25:28The 49ers are undefeated, right? Yes. Yeah. So I, I, I think I'm shocked that legitimately adds up to 5,000, 50,000 is so good.
25:36God damn it. Yeah. I mean, I guess the other thing we should say.
25:40I think DraftKings stole money from Sammy and gave it to me.
25:44I think I was able to build, how did I get Josh Allen and Jamar Chase and Christian?
25:50Sammy, what did you do? Ooh, it's that it's that the cheapest guy in his lineup is Wicks, which by the way,
25:57last thing I said in our group chat before, before lock, this is literally the last thing is I said, I don't want to play Wicks.
26:05The Eagles are going to score zero points, which I mean, they did somehow actually generate points.
26:11It's just that Darius Cooper had three for 20 and two touchdowns, but I think we all know Wicks was dog shit.
26:18I mean, I, did you guys, did you guys play Wicks in a single tournament lineup?
26:23Cause I did not. I don't think I did.
26:26Yeah. I, and we, I mean, we all played him in cash, but I, did you guys consider playing Kalief Raymond?
26:32Did you, did you consider playing Raymond in cash?
26:35For sure. For sure. Um, I did not, I did not.
26:39I just, I, so I, I also almost played Makai Lemon as well instead of, instead of Wicks.
26:45I just, I, we all knew Wicks was a bad play.
26:48He was like never going to be a good play.
26:51Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I, I, I still don't know what to do with this Eagles offense.
26:57Like, I don't know who Jalen Hurts is. I don't know.
27:01They're, they're bad. I mean, they're bad. Hurts. Lemon is definitely more talented.
27:05Lemon is definitely more talented, but like hurts is hurts is brutal.
27:09And I just was hoping he was going to throw some, like if hurts was decent, I do think lemon would have been a better play.
27:17Wicks is the better, like bad ball, just like throw it up there and expect garbage.
27:22And that's kind of what I was hoping for.
27:25But I would say like, yeah, in a straight up, like legitimately functioning offense, lemon is the much better route runner overall player upside.
27:33But yeah, I don't know 4,300, I 40, whatever he was 4,300 with no Devonta.
27:38I felt like you had to play Wicks. Yeah.
27:40Um, all right. I will pull up. Well, if I can, I think, uh, Oh, the slate just transitioned to, uh, to complete it here.
27:48I'll pull up my, uh, I'll pull up my spy team.
27:52The run, the Sims has a post contest sim page up, but I don't know how to use it yet.
27:58So I'll pull up my spy team. I, I think this did this min cash.
28:03No, it did not min cash. Uh, I played, Tyson Baygent 4% King Henry 14%.
28:08I thought, I thought he would actually be way more owned than that.
28:12Jeremiah love who clearly was a dog shit play at 39% Pukanuku at 12% P wash 31%.
28:17Uh, Luther burdened the third 6.7 Tyler Higby 6.5 Emmanuel Wilson, 4,800 fricking 7.5% on 27 points.
28:23Vikings defense, 8 points. Uh, obviously the issue here is I didn't just play Ken Walker.
28:28Why did I not play Ken Walker? But I thought the Puka spot was so good.
28:33And I did Nate, I really did think the Bayesian spot was, was good.
28:38And I couldn't get, I don't know about, I don't know what you guys were doing this morning.
28:43I couldn't get anything. I liked to Simwell. I couldn't get Dak Seedy to Simwell.
28:48I couldn't get, um, Joe Burrow, T Higgins with P wash to Simwell.
28:52I couldn't, I couldn't get anything that I thought was reasonable to Simwell at all.
28:57And I'm realizing now that part of it was one, because I didn't put Hawkinson in any of them.
29:03Right. So I had, I had zero Hawkinson in any of my tournament lineups.
29:08And then also the Puka projection that I was using, like, I think run the Sims had him for like 17 points
29:15met like his Puka, the Puka projection was degraded.
29:17It wasn't, I should have altered the Puka projection and then started doing the, uh, the Sims fricking Parker Washington, dude, get to, I'm so tilted about this.
29:26Yeah. The Parker Washington thing was tough. I mean, cause I do think the Jaguars were in a great spot.
29:33Like I do think Lawrence was a good play.
29:36Washington obviously gets the volume. Um, I think this just happens.
29:39I don't think there's much to read into the Washington thing.
29:43I think Washington was fine. No, it just, it, it is.
29:46It's just one of those things that happened. How about, how about I played shooting in the red?
29:52He's just not a true alpha. Like we thought he was.
29:55Yeah. No. How do you, how do you show up in this spot in this game and not, and not get anything
30:02like maybe not a true alpha because, because this was just honestly the, the Bengals Jags game.
30:08It really was one of those games by shell.
30:11Tootin had, um, about a billion fantasy points called back by penalty.
30:15He had a 45 yard touchdown run called back by penalty.
30:18And then like, uh, and then like a five yard touchdown run, like the most like ridiculous holding call of all time.
30:25It was so, it was so stupid. Um, this is fair though.
30:29Uh, I think we, we probably should have a convo of whether $6,500 Parker Washington should be the highest owned wide receiver of slate.
30:37I mean, I think that, I think that's probably a fair conversation, uh, to have, I don't know.
30:42I thought, I thought Higby at 6.5% was good.
30:45I mean, Nate, I, I, I, this lineup, I think that I got this lineup to like 3% SIM ROI on run
30:52the Sims that that was like, that was like as good as like, Oh, and I also played the Vikings defense at 15%, which is crazy.
31:01I guess everyone did have insane salary. If the $4,000 defense was 15% on.
31:05Yeah. Um, yeah, I, I, I don't mind this.
31:08I think, um, I'm trying to think through the Bayesian thing a little bit more of like, what should you have gone through Loveland instead of Higby?
31:17Um, but cause what was, what was Loveland's price?
31:19Loveland was so expensive. He was, he was 4,700.
31:22I just thought there was no way. Yeah. He was 4,700.
31:26Like, I, I mean, I, I played a little bit.
31:29The Wilson play is sharp. The Wilson play is definitely sharp.
31:32Yeah. I, I honestly like sometimes like, if you're not going to get, if you're not going to get first place, sometimes
31:39it's really nice to have a fancy play like that.
31:43That just absolutely smashes like, man, I'm so good.
31:46Can you imagine if, uh, you know, burden, I mean, burden, burden keeps having these games, like four receptions for 63 yards
31:53is like a totally fine game, but he just like, he's not found a mega smash yet.
31:58And then Washington sucking is how about Henry in a 24 point win where the team was never contested.
32:04How does Henry only get 15 points? How did, how did Derek Henry not have 40 points in this game?
32:10That's absurd. I mean, I was touched down on the first drive and Lamar went out.
32:16It's like, dude, just beat the big dog against his revenge game.
32:19I mean, I don't know how he didn't get there.
32:23No, it, it, it was, it was completely, it was completely insane.
32:26I actually was tilting that, um, pretty hard. I mean, and then Jeremiah love had 43 yards in the first quarter and then, and then got hurt.
32:35I don't know. You know what? I'd, I'd actually play this team again.
32:39It didn't, it didn't get there, but like, I would, I would play this team again, I think.
32:45I mean, it doesn't have, it doesn't have Ken Walker on it, so it couldn't have been that good.
32:51What team, what team won this by? Let's see.
32:54I mean, obviously it's going to have CD lamb on it.
32:57Stroud, McCaffrey, Swift, lamb neighbors was a totally unexpected smash.
33:01I hand up on that one. I was like, I was ready to like write the obituary for the New York giants.
33:08Um, dubs, Romeo dubs at a huge smash game.
33:10TJ Hawkinson only at 16%. Okay. All right. You know what Nate dunce cap dunce cap for me?
33:16TJ Hawkinson at 16% with his projection is actually a huge smash.
33:20And then Kyron, I actually, nobody actually believed in him.
33:23Nobody was actually like, Oh, Hawkinson has the upside.
33:26He got spit out in optos and people were like, Oh, he'll get his like five for 48 and it'll be enough.
33:33Cause I can do the rest of my lineup, but nobody actually believed that Hawkinson would do well.
33:39That's the proof of the goddamn twinning. Yeah. I mean, we should talk about Kyron.
33:44So I played Kyron in the red zone. I thought he was, I thought he was an awesome play, but I, I
33:51couldn't get, I couldn't get Puka Higby Kyron and the Rams defense altogether to sim that well.
33:56I couldn't, I couldn't get the four of them together to sit in that well.
34:01Um, so I just, I just like, and because I guess it was because the thing that cost me today was being stubborn about Higby.
34:09I mean, ultimately, or ultimately at the end of the day, that the, the reason why I played bad today was because
34:16I was stubborn about playing Higby instead of Hawkinson that, that is, that is the moral of the story is that I
34:23could have had a good day, but I was too, I was too fucking stubborn, but Hawkinson, no, the problem was that
34:30I didn't, the problem was that I did IKB.
34:33If I would have just listened to the computer about Hawkinson, I would have had a bunch of good teams, but I,
34:40I was too, I was too fucking stubborn. You're on mute, Nate.
34:44Right. That's the whole thing with tournaments is people continue to IKB these projections because they look at them and they're like, Hawkinson isn't good.
34:52This isn't right. But it's like targets are still targets.
34:55Volume is still volume teams. They're going to throw pass plays.
34:58These guys are going to run routes. Like, I don't care how bad you are.
35:03Like there's upside there. So sometimes you should just listen to the computer.
35:07Uh, I mean, I think probably a lot of the time you should, you should just listen to the computer and Hawkinson
35:14is a, it's a pretty good example. So this is Sammy's team, Stroud, Derek Henry, Emmanuel Wilson, Nico Pickens, Addison, Kittle, Wicks and the bears.
35:22What, uh, what tournament was this in Sammy? It was in the spy.
35:26There you go. Also, also in the spy. Good for, good for, uh, for a min cash.
35:32You know what? I should be windmilling the Isaiah Williams touchdown this week.
35:36These fucking non ball knowers telling me I'm so bad.
35:39You got two catches this week. Oh, wow. Yeah.
35:42Great. No, dude, I was dude. Two catches. You know what?
35:46This is all, this is all coalescing. This is all coalescing for me just to continue.
35:51I mean, the Walker, the Walker stuff is so good for me.
35:55Like I'm, I'm advancing so many teams in best ball right now.
35:58Cause Walker is like the absolute nutted. You had to have them guy.
36:03And, and you know what? The, the Sims, the computers are not catching up to the Kenneth Walker stuff.
36:09Every, every, uh, outlet had McCaffrey for more points than Walker today.
36:12It's not going to be, it's not going to be that way next week.
36:17I don't think, I think with another week of a poor CMC efficiency, I think we are going to get there.
36:24Uh, Sammy, I hate Don Tavian Wicks and the flex on this team.
36:28Absolutely hate it. It's not, it's not great. I don't know how to defend myself.
36:33I thought Wicks would like legitimately have a good game.
36:36Um, yeah, I just, I, I just, I just duffed it, man.
36:40You know, but the way, the way I wanted to build this lineup is I wanted to get, you know, the, the Dallas and Texans game.
36:48And so getting Nico Collins, I thought he'd be like severely under owned because, you know, it's his first game back.
36:55And so I wanted to get that going on.
36:57Uh, but I didn't run it back with CD.
37:00I ran it back with Pickens cause it was like, Oh, you know, CD has been mogging Pickens all year.
37:07I think they're probably closer than that, even though I think CD is better, but he was obviously like, you know, way, way more expensive as well.
37:15So, you know, when, when, when with Pickens in the spot and it just, you know, just didn't quite get there.
37:22Proud of the Emmanuel Wilson, proud of myself. Uh, we got some money in this lineup, but God damn it.
37:28Yeah. I, the Wicks was bad and I knew it was bad.
37:32And I was just like, well, I really liked the rest, you know?
37:36And when Wicks goes six for 58, it'll be fine.
37:40And it wasn't fine. Could have just, could have just, could have just easily played TJ Hawkinson.
37:45Could have easily played the Rams defense and then got from Pickens to lamb and Ben and Ben rich.
37:51Yep. Yep. I don't, I don't like, I don't like money.
37:55It's all good. Yeah. Uh, all right, Nate, what team do you want me to run?
38:00Uh, let's see, let's do my, uh, I had a small field touchdown team that I liked.
38:05Um, so this field is like 500. No, it's 111.
38:08It's the $200. $200. All right. $200 touchdown. Okay.
38:11What Uh, Joe Burrow, uh, Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown, Jamar Chase, Parker Washington, T Higgins, Brenton strange, TJ Hawkinson dolphins.
38:18Burrow, Washington. You know, the, the sharpest thing about this lineup is playing a defense against Kyler Murray.
38:23You know, I'm proud of you. Yeah. When it, when it came to cash, dude, I did not want to play.
38:30I did not want to play three Vikings. I was just like, bro, like Kyler sucks.
38:35That's been my take all year. He continues to suck.
38:38I know, I know these guys got there. Um, but God, I don't want, I don't want any part of the Vikings offense.
38:46Uh, I mean, I think we all knew that.
38:48I think we, like, we can all like, we can all be done with the Kyler Murray, uh, derangement syndrome of which I was a part.
38:57You know, I, I was, I drafted Kyler in best ball.
39:00Like I, but all I needed was I needed the scales, uh, taken from my eyes last week.
39:06Right. And, uh, that was it. That was all I needed to see.
39:10I got, I got four quarters of Kyler Murray last week.
39:14He was awful. He couldn't do anything. I, it felt like the exact same as the Kyler Murray, Arizona experience.
39:20The Vikings had two really easy games against the Buccaneers and the Dolphins.
39:24Now they play at the saints. Uh, they play home to the Colts.
39:28They play at the lions and they play home to the bills.
39:32We are, we are a lot of people who were very comfortable playing TJ Hawkinson this week are going to have to
39:39look themselves in the mirror and say, all right, I got away with one.
39:44I got away with one that time because the Kyler Murray experience of which look, dude, I got the Oklahoma helmet behind me.
39:51Like I love Kyler, but it's, it's over. Here you go.
39:55Uh, you know, the real, the real good take for Hawkinson would have been that Kyler is too small to see anything.
40:02So he's just gonna like dump it to Hawkinson a bunch cause Hawkinson's tall and can sit right in the flat.
40:08And, uh, you know, that's, that, that's the ball more, nor take that got you to Hawkinson should have been.
40:15I mean, that was that, that, that is exactly what did happen was like every Hawkinson reception was just a, like, it
40:22was all Kyler bailing out of whatever else was, was designed.
40:25Uh, 8%. Yeah. This is what I wanted to see because all of these players project for really high ownership.
40:32Yeah. All of them. There is really not anybody here.
40:35That's not chalk. Um, the dolphins D was the only one that's not chalk, but all of them came in at relatively
40:42high ownership, but the combination was very unique. Nobody actually stacked burrow Brown chase and Higgins and then, and then T and brought it back with strange.
40:50Uh, because if they had strange, they had, uh, Lawrence.
40:54And so this was like a, it's one of those things where I, I don't know why, but like sometimes these fall
41:01through the cracks of the Sims where it's like the ownership is high, but it doesn't seem like, I don't know.
41:07I don't know if this is sharp. Maybe I'd ask for other like post-contest Sims to look at it, but like it,
41:14it feels like one of those things that like, when you look at it, it's like, Oh, this looks too chalky, too
41:21high projected, but it actually seems like it falls in these cracks of these ownership things where it's like, Oh no, nobody's actually playing all of these combinations.
41:30Yeah. I think it's, I think it's good. I think this is a sharp one up Nate.
41:36I think it's sharp. I think you're on the right track and you've been doing this all year where it's like, look,
41:43you're, you're doing good projections, but combinatorically, it's just going to be very unique.
41:47And, uh, yeah, I, I think it was very sharp.
41:50And maybe it was the smaller field specifically that I was like, Oh, I just in a bigger field, obviously I wouldn't
41:57play something like this, but 111 and it, yeah, but yeah.
42:01And, and, and to kind of unpack that, like the theory is that, you know, these, these big onslaughts are going to
42:08do better in smaller fields in larger fields. You kind of like need to like hit the nuts, but in smaller fields,
42:15like if you have one game that goes off and people don't have those combos, like you can easily get to the top.
42:22So I think it was very well thought out, honestly.
42:26I agree. I, I, I think these types of teams in the smaller, um, in these smaller contests are quite good.
42:32I was, I was much more hesitant about the Cincinnati Jacksonville game than the field because both these teams are super low pace of play.
42:40They're both bottom five in seconds per play and seconds to snap.
42:44So I was just like, I knew obviously like some pieces would get there, which is what did happen.
42:50T mega got there, uh, strange mega got there for the Jags.
42:54I was just worried that it was going to be like, yeah, there would be three really great individual performances, but this
43:01isn't going to be like a lions game where they run like 92 plays each or whatever.
43:06So I, I would, I went way lower on all these pieces and all my stuff.
43:11I just know that the bangles are going to have one of these games where like when Burrow gets it together, whatever
43:19week he does, it's always like week five, six, like they, they take the first couple of weeks off every year.
43:25It feels like, and then they finally get there, but yeah, but yeah, I don't know.
43:30It didn't sit out well pre lock, but I was looking at it and I was like, I, I think there's something
43:37in this that, yeah, but obviously Jamar Chase got hurt, so it didn't do anything, but it still had a high score overall.
43:45Yeah. And frankly, I would just, I would just say my experience was that I couldn't get, I could not get anything
43:52that I built to sim better than 10% sim ROI this morning.
43:56I built like 20 different lineups with like guys.
43:58I liked some, like I literally was just like sorting by like highest projected points, just like trying to get something to sim.
44:06Well, like all the stuff that I did, like when I just did the regular sim runner, when I just ran like
44:135,000 teams or whatever, the stuff that was simming well, I was like, yeah, man, if I guess like if I was
44:20a different type of person, I would play that, but it was like, you know, Sam Darnold doubles.
44:26And, and I just, I was like, I can't, I can't get, I can't get to any of this stuff.
44:32Um, so I passed it. Uh, all right guys.
44:35So today football is starting. Sammy has to go cry about his San Diego Padres.
44:40We will be back with you guys next week.
44:42I'll be back with you guys tomorrow for the bag check.
44:46Uh, make sure you like the video, make sure you're subscribed to the channel and I'll be back with you guys tomorrow.
