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0:25St. Louis, Missouri. Yeah, yeah. Might want to download that Exxon Mobile Rewards Plus app.
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0:48Exxon. Trust the Tiger. For details, visit ExxonOffer.com. Who are the biggest fades for 2026?
0:53Let's talk about it. Back here on the Fancy Price Check, and we're talking about the biggest fades for 2026.
0:59I'm your host, Wyatt. With me today, Jeremiah. And he's up first, giving us our first fade of the day.
1:06Hey, we'll waste no time, Wyatt. Top five rounds, fades, and I'm sitting here looking at Kyron Williams, Josh Jacobs, and in
1:12my head, I'm like, oh yeah, it is a top five round fades.
1:17These are early picks for a reason. So these aren't one of those ones where it's like, oh, don't draft this player and they're a 10th round player.
1:25These are some chalkier players, some players that it may hurt your feelings to hear from us where we're saying, yeah, I'm fading.
1:33My first one is Kyron Williams, RB14 at 30 overall on NFFC.
1:36And I'm just ready for it. I know the retorts is every year he still pushes the fade away, but this year
1:43the fade is going to be real and I'm going to be right.
1:47I will concede and acknowledge that up to this point, we've been wrong about the Kyron Williams fade because he continually has favor from Sean McVay.
1:56So it's one of those things where you realize where you're not right yet, but you will be.
2:01So that's what I'm predicting. Kyron Williams, three straight years, his fantasy football points per game have gone down Wyatt 21 to 17, down to 15.
2:09And then last year, rushing attempts prior year was 316, down to 259.
2:14And Blake Corham is the direct handcuff. He went from 58 rush attempts his rookie season to 145 rushing attempts.
2:20So 7.2 fantasy points per game across 17 games played for Blake Corham.
2:24So he's eating into Kyron Williams ceiling. That's my issue.
2:27It's going to continue to grow for for Blake Corham at the detriment of Kyron Williams.
2:32And it's not a wish cast where I'm talking to you and we're saying, hey, this is Jonathan Brooks.
2:38He's going to just crush Chuba Hubbard. So it's not like it's going to be an entirety of Blake Corham steals it all from Kyron Williams.
2:46It's just going to be drip by drip a little bit, a piece here, a piece there.
2:52Like family guy. Oh, a piece of candy. Oh, a piece of candy.
2:56Oh, a carry here. Oh, a fumble dropped on the ground by Kyron Williams.
3:00Oh, no. Blake Corham is getting the series. Kyron's fumbles are an issue in the last three seasons.
3:06He's tied for the most lost fumbles in the last three years with seven and ten total.
3:11So he's had a lot of just lost fumbles or he fumbles in the green zone.
3:16It's not just the red zone. It's like the green zone inside the ten high leverage carries.
3:22It's an issue for Kyron Williams. So for that reason, I'm out on him and there's other players at ADP who I'm in favor of.
3:29And I see I think my main argument with this is we may get a floor of those 15 fancy points per
3:36game or we're not going to get that ceiling season, which three years prior was 21.3 fancy points per game.
3:43Yeah, I've been fading Kyron as well. You know, back half of the season, we've got basically it became a 60-40 split
3:50with all the rushing work between Kyron and Blake Corham.
3:53Kyron did still keep the majority of the pass catching work, although there's never been that much in the Rams offense.
3:59They're one of the teams that throws to the running backs at the lowest percentage year after year.
4:05And, you know, Blake Corham has looked locked in this offseason.
4:08That's one of those like, I don't know, training camp hype videos.
4:12I like watching him training like legitimately like it does get me a little excited.
4:17But, you know, he's just he's been showed to be a really explosive runner.
4:21And why can't he take a little bit more from Kyron?
4:25Like, would it surprise anybody? The point I think here is that and you kind of laid out the case is that
4:32Kyron Williams is a small hit big miss type of player.
4:35You draft him in his ADP. How much better can that ADP be?
4:39Can he be? I don't know how much more he can be.
4:43But if Blake Corham takes any more than what he was doing at the back half last season, we're talking about a big miss here.
4:51Yeah, I love it. And Wyatt, can you tell us who is your first fade?
4:56It's going to break some people's hearts in these top five rounds.
4:59Yes. Dare I say Josh Allen. I know he's my QB one.
5:03Don't worry, like everybody out there. He's still my QB one.
5:07This is a structure thing when it comes to these drafts right now.
5:11Josh Allen is just too far ahead of every other QB in drafts right now.
5:16On the NFFC, he's going early third round. He's two rounds ahead of anybody else.
5:20More than two rounds, actually. And the next up on NFFC is actually Joe Burrow, two and a half rounds later.
5:27And then we got Lamar Jackson. There are too many QBs like that where it's like these quarterbacks can all rival Josh Allen in any given season.
5:35Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Drake May, Jane Daniels. But they're two to three rounds cheaper than him.
5:41And then if you even want to talk like this year, like I think there's a lot of really good prices at QB further down drafts.
5:49Like Trevor Lawrence, you know, Matthew Stafford. I really like Kyler Murray there in the Vikings.
5:54And like you're not going to get Josh Allen production from them.
5:58I'm not saying you will. But if you're two to three points per game off of Josh Allen, that's pretty good at
6:05that price compared to who you're going to get in the third round compared to who you'd be drafting, you know, in
6:12a 10th round at a skilled position player. So it's a structure thing for me in best ball leagues.
6:18I'm getting some exposure to Josh Allen. Like you want to have access to a Josh Allen when there's any tournament best ball settings.
6:25But just in normal leagues, like I'm just not taking the first QB when he's that far in front of everybody else
6:32and has to beat them by so much. In the NFFC, Pete and I did a draft earlier this week.
6:38We got Josh Allen in round four, but we were not looking to press that button.
6:43What you just talked about, Wyatt, you summed up perfectly the concept of war value.
6:48And when you're just two or three points off at the other quarterback positions, but you pay two, three, four and five rounds difference in price cheaper.
6:57You get the skill benefit of the receivers and running backs who are there at the price of somebody like a Josh Allen who are parallel in ADP.
7:05So even on down to a quarterback seven is somebody like Justin Herbert, very high on him.
7:11And he goes several rounds later in one quarterback formats.
7:14If you want some of the rushing, if the league settings favor the rushing, Jalen Hurts is QB eight to Josh Allen on NFFC.
7:22And you always have Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, who can just throw for 4,000 to 4,500, hang 40 touchdown passes in a given season.
7:29And then you have the rushing upside of somebody like Jackson Dart, big wild card QB 12.
7:34And then QB 13 is Brock Purdy. We've had a show earlier in the off season on front fantasy price check where
7:41we talked about high end QB two. So the high end QB two market, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix on down.
7:48You can just talk yourself into so much for the quarterback position in your favor of not drafting at the height, at the top ceiling, Josh Allen.
7:57Yeah, it's the thing. Like I mentioned some QBs that I think have good prices.
8:02You mentioned more QBs that like I also think have good prices.
8:05You mentioned like Hurts, you know, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott.
8:08They're going six rounds after Josh Allen. Would it surprise you if any of them rivaled Josh Allen in scoring the season?
8:15No, wouldn't surprise me, you know. So it's just purely about structure in your drafts.
8:20If it's a one QB league, like I'm waiting at QB this year.
8:24Yeah. And with the rushing, if there's any kind of regression in rushing on the touchdowns on some of the yardage for
8:31Josh Allen and then, hey, a couple games banged up for injury, you're losing that positional advantage.
8:36Part of it reminds me of somebody like a Colson Loveland.
8:40We are very, people don't like to hear it, but we're very close to baking in the entire ceiling to somebody like a Colson Loveland.
8:48So I see that little parallel with somebody like a Josh Allen.
8:52Ironically, they're both onesie positions. I closed my ears a little bit when you started to say something bad about Colson Loveland,
8:59but you are bringing up some good points. We're going to take a quick second to hear about that NFFC.
9:05When we come back, we've got more players to fade.
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9:51But also, every time you sign up for a new contest, we give you codes to use to get discounts on those entry fees as well.
9:59Thank you to the NFFC. They make our podcast network what it is.
10:03This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra.
10:06Even if you're a pro or just in it for fun, the moment you play for Michelob Ultra, everything changes.
10:13The focus sharpens. The game gets real. Every point, every move suddenly means something more.
10:17Because a superior light beer is on the line.
10:20Superior is worth playing for. Michelob Ultra's superior light beer.
10:23Find it near you at MichelobUltra.com. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026.
10:26Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra light beer. St. Louis, Missouri. Yeah.
10:29Yeah. Might want to download that Exxon Mobile Rewards Plus app.
10:33Yeah. Are you the Exxon Tiger? I am. Yeah.
10:36You know, new users can earn $10 in points.
10:38Five bucks after your first purchase and five after your second.
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10:45Well, hey. You get on that download, buddy. I will.
10:48Loading. Download the Exxon Mobile Rewards Plus app and join today.
10:51Exxon. Trust the Tiger. For details, visit ExxonOffer.com. Welcome back to the Fantasy Price Check.
10:56If you haven't liked them, subscribe yet. Please do so.
10:59If you're listening on your favorite podcast platform, Raiders 5 Stars, leave us a comment everywhere.
11:04Let us know how we're doing. Let us know your biggest fade for the 2026 season.
11:09Speaking of fades, Jeremiah's got another one for us.
11:12Hey, we're going to go with Josh Jacobs, RB17 and 38th overall on NFFC.
11:16I have seen him go in round five, which is tremendous value.
11:20I think that's where you start to see the value with the possible impending or overhanging suspension that could be out there.
11:27We don't hear any word from the NFL, so we think that's a good thing.
11:32But Josh Allen, or sorry, Josh Jacobs. We were just talking about Josh Allen, two Joshes.
11:37Josh Jacobs, age 28. I think he's going to start to hit that cliff.
11:41He's got a lot of volume the last couple seasons, run pure in the touchdown department last two seasons, 16 and 14 respectively.
11:49My issue with him, the running backs that go around him, give me a more interesting Brees Hall, who's neck and neck with Javante Williams.
11:56And then give me somebody like Travis Etienne, who just lost Alvin Kamara.
12:01There's high upside there, especially in the PPR receiving game.
12:04The bag for Josh Jacobs is rushing and it's not receiving.
12:07And if you're not going to run as pure, if there's going to be regression in the touchdown department, he's a little
12:14bit older, he's got the suspension hanging over his head.
12:17There's going to be a shift in this offense too.
12:20Jordan Love, I really think it's going to funnel through he, Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft.
12:25And when we have 70% opportunity share for somebody like Josh Jacobs, Marshawn Lloyd finally being healthy.
12:31I think they're going to take a little bit away off the plate of somebody like a Josh Jacobs.
12:37So this isn't as hard of a fade as what's going on with Kyron Williams, but again, for the price point.
12:43And we never see on the front side, the cliff hitting for players.
12:47It could be Mike Evans this year. It could be Derek Henry, but on the backside, it all makes so much sense.
12:54This is a player, Josh Jacobs, where he's rewarded fancy gamers for years.
12:59I don't know if he's got another year in him.
13:02If he does, do you bet there's two years in them?
13:05So I'd rather be out a year early than late.
13:08Other players who go behind him, I would say David Montgomery is going to get just carry share, feature share on that Texans offense.
13:16And same thing. And he doesn't have to compete with the receivers.
13:20You know, it's Nico Collins. Dalton Schultz is going to get an influx of targets because we have Jaden Higgins, RIP, pour some out, torn ACL.
13:28You hate to see it, but we're not going to have that competition for David Montgomery with the pass catchers.
13:34So it's going to run through more David Montgomery, I think this year.
13:38Then Josh Jacobs, Travion Henderson presents more upside as RB 21 on the NFFC.
13:43So these are players that you can get later.
13:45I'm going to go for the ceiling in somebody like a Travion Henderson and Josh Jacobs last year, his efficiency, true yards
13:52per carry 48, 3.8, 4.5 yards per touch 39.
13:55And his explosive rating was 20th. That wasn't so bad, but yards created per touch 21st, 3.41.
14:01If we start seeing dents in the rushing share, rushing metrics for Josh Jacobs, I think we're on the precipice of him
14:07slowing down because there is no ceiling there in the receiving game.
14:11So I am fading. It's like Shark Tank. That is, and for that reason, I am out on Josh Jacobs.
14:18He's still going a little bit too high for me, all things considered.
14:22I think, you know, the suspension, it's looking like that's probably not going to happen at this point.
14:27There's still a little bit of a risk to a suspension to him, but also, as you mentioned, like the metric started
14:34falling off last year and that might have been like the little canary in the coal mine for us to let us
14:41know that he's on his way down. I mean, this is a player who has over 2,100 career touches in the NFL.
14:48Josh Jacobs, the moment he got on the field, he got, he got in there and was a workhorse and he's been
14:55handling a lot of touches year in and year out.
14:58We know that like, it's one of the things that's actually a skill for like being able to do that is a
15:05skill and it's one of Josh Jacobs' greatest skills, but that's a lot of touches at the, you know, over time.
15:12And I'm wondering if they are going to start to really catch up to him in 2026.
15:17And if the Packers decide to rely more on their pass game than they have been since they got Josh Jacobs, because,
15:24you know, the year before they got Josh Jacobs, they were a more pass heavy team.
15:29There was Jordan Love's first year. They really relied on his arm.
15:33They get Josh Jacobs and they turn into this really balanced team.
15:37One of the more balanced teams in the entire NFL.
15:40I'm wondering if they move back a little bit to Love's arm.
15:44And as you mentioned, Josh Jacobs is not the best pass catcher.
15:47I mean, he's fine and he can get in there, but Marshawn Lloyd's looking pretty healthy and he's a pretty good pass catcher himself too.
15:55So maybe if they're looking to get a little touches off of Josh Jacobs to keep him at a decent level, they
16:02give some of that to Marshawn Lloyd, help keep him a little bit fresher.
16:07But if you're a Josh Jacobs fantasy manager, it's not what you want to hear.
16:11And let's also think about tempo. I mentioned David Montgomery defenses and kicker or sorry defenses and running backs correlate.
16:18So, well, well, you're going to have a finite amount of plays with the Texans where you're going to be in kill clock mode for David Montgomery.
16:26He's going to get fed more Packers without Micah Parsons.
16:29You have to look to the opposite side of the ball.
16:33If the Packers are going to be scored on, not maybe at will, but better than having Micah Parsons, that could just
16:40relate some games where it's not going to be fully run through Josh Jacobs and the vessel of the offense will go
16:47more throw mode, as you mentioned, with Jordan Love and maybe more pass utility in the back.
16:52healthy this time, we hope in Marshawn Lloyd. So all that's to say, we've got some players who are starting to emerge in age.
16:59We have different fades for different reasons. You have a player for us, Wyatt.
17:04Devontae Adams. People may want to plug their ears, but nobody rings the bell at the top, Wyatt.
17:10Why should people be fading Devontae Adams? Yeah. Devontae Adams right now, wide receiver 25 at 50th overall on the NFFC.
17:16And he was kind of a revelation for a lot of fantasy managers in 2025, scoring 14 touchdowns.
17:22Was this was a goal line wide receiver for the Rams?
17:25Less than 800 receiving yards on the season. And you look underneath the hood a little bit.
17:31And so the metrics are to fall off. Like his yards per out run was down to 1.96.
17:36He was 24th among wide receivers. Like that is worse than what we're used to for Devontae Adams.
17:42And this is the kind of way that it works for the elite players is they're really good until they're not.
17:49You can barely see it actually coming. You actually have to look pretty deep to find that like one thing that lets
17:55you know, like, oh, the drop off is actually coming.
17:59These players don't gradually decline. It's more one day it's done.
18:02And I actually think the bigger sign for this for Devontae Adams is the Rams seem to want to move on from Devontae Adams this offseason.
18:10Or at least they seem to signal to us they're looking to move on.
18:15They were in on AJ Brown before they decided to pass on trading forum because of medical issues.
18:20They were linked to first round wide receivers before the NFL draft.
18:24Like this is a team that seems like they've been trying to make a move because they don't want to have to rely on Devontae Adams in 2026.
18:33So I don't want to have to rely on Devontae Adams in 2026.
18:37Like the Rams are one of the teams where when they're telling us something by the moves they're making, like I listen
18:44hard because they're right on so much of this stuff.
18:47They're such a well run organization like Kyron Williams, Pukunakua when it comes to drafting, when it comes to roster management.
18:54Like remember when they just let Cooper Cup go and people thought he still had something left going to Seattle.
19:00And it was like, no, do you remember? Like as soon as the season ended, they were like, who wants Cooper Cup?
19:07Like we're ready to move on from him. I trust them a lot when it comes to this.
19:13So I am scared about what Devontae Adams has left going into his age 34 season.
19:18If you do the Socratic method question of if there's one team, Wyatt, in the NFL who is a good self-scouter, who would it be?
19:26Or a handful, maybe five of them. Would one of those teams be the Rams?
19:30And I think if that answer is yes, you start to look into that and see that.
19:36So if there's self-scouting on that degree on that front, and you alluded to all the interests where it didn't seem so obvious.
19:43Every now and then, it seemed obvious that the Chiefs would be in on somebody like A.J.
19:48Brown, or there'd be whispering and murmuring about Stephon Diggs.
19:51Go back to the draft too. Mekhi Lemon was always getting mocked to the Rams.
19:56A few years ago, when it was Brock Bowers, we heard so much how the Rams were on Brock Bowers.
20:02So there's a lot of shape to this organization that Sean McVay and front office probably want that they haven't necessarily gotten.
20:09And just because you haven't gotten it right now doesn't mean it can't happen later.
20:14And, you know, it's like delayed, not denied. We may end up getting delayed from the move that the Rams want to
20:21make, but we may not see it here as well.
20:24So to your point, if things are kind of fickle too with possibly the contract extension with Pukunakua, it can be more
20:31precarious a lot quicker for the Rams than people see on the surface.
20:35It's the cliff for Devontae Adams, any legal trouble for Pukunakua.
20:39And then it stands to reason why the Rams would be after wide receiver.
20:43So in this league, you can never be too good.
20:46You always have to be retooling. Funny enough, they felt the need to do that at the quarterback position, but we weren't ready for them to do that.
20:55The Rams at the receiver position, but all the signal, everything you laid out about the interest through the off season shows
21:02that, and they may see that cliff. Here's some receivers on NFC that I would rather have than Devontae Adams, Mike Evans,
21:09and then give me Parker Washington, who goes as wide receiver 33 to Devontae Adams 25.
21:14I'm all about the elevator up and the ascendancy, the pop that's out there with Devontae Adams.
21:19When you see he's gone down in targets three straight years, 175 to 141 to 114 back-to-back seasons.
21:25Since the last two years, when he went down, he had 14 games played.
21:29So if you want to take away the 175 target season because he had three more games, sure, fine, do that.
21:36But in two back-to-back seasons, Wyatt, the last two years where he played Devontae Adams 14 games each, 141 down to 114.
21:43So then if we take away some of that red zone, you know, dialing in that one itis that's there, there's any
21:50dent in that can, that's going to blow the lid off of his productivity.
21:54And then here he is 33 and a half years old.
21:58All of a sudden it may not make sense on the front end, but on the back end, you're like, oh yeah, it does stand to reason.
22:06Devontae Adams finally did fade and you hate to say it, but those are our fades.
22:11Yes, they are everybody. I hope you enjoyed the show.
22:14If you have liked to subscribe yet, please do so.
22:18Also leave us a comment, please. We want to hear about your biggest fades.
22:22Let us know if you agree with our biggest fades.
22:25Until next time, we'll see you. You know, it's important to me that all of our media be free, but it is
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