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The Dominator - Minicamp Movers: Players Making Their Mark

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 13 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 11, 2026
Published
Thu, June 11, 2026
45
Player insights
27
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh JacobsCam WardCarnell TateD.J. MooreDalton KincaidZay FlowersBrian Thomas Jr.Denzel BostonMark AndrewsRome OdunzeTony PollardCalvin RidleyChris RodriguezCole Kmet
Player analysis

Player insights

45

Brian Thomas Jr.

PositiveProjection0:39

BTJ is projected as a wide receiver 30-31 by sharp projectors despite being wide receiver 32 in ADP; he has a real pathway to beat projections by 15-20% given his rookie 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown season.

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PositiveValue0:40

BTJ is being undervalued relative to his rookie production; drafters who debated him versus Amon Ross St. Brown at the 1-2 turn last year now won't click the button at the 6-7 turn.

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Calvin Ridley

PositiveRole17:32

Calvin Ridley is healthy and will be featured in the Cardinals offense alongside Wandale Robinson and Carnell Tate, representing a significant addition to the receiving corps.

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Cam Ward

PositiveProjection17:13

Cam Ward's tape from Miami was excellent, and he's in a much better situation now with Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, though his fantasy upside depends on him running more to justify a top-12 QB projection.

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PositiveRole17:27

Cam Ward is learning to use his legs more and is conditioning his body to handle increased rushing opportunities under Brian Daboll, who maximized Daniel Jones' fantasy scoring despite Jones being 'down in the dumps' before.

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PositiveValue17:31

Cam Ward is available at a cheap price in best ball formats, allowing drafters to build multiple QB builds with Ward as a QB2 or QB3 alongside high-profile quarterbacks, though his ADP will likely tick up throughout the summer.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveValue17:11

Carnell Tate's ADP has risen significantly from inside round six to the 408-410 range, with drafters willing to reach for him. This represents a major ADP breakthrough as his draft capital is nearly identical to Malik Nabers, who finished as a WR1 in his rookie year.

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PositiveRole17:20

Carnell Tate is receiving strong endorsements from Cam Ward and beat reporters, with one reporter calling him 'flawless' and 'the best wide receiver we've had since A.J. Brown,' suggesting he will be featured prominently in the Cardinals offense.

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PositiveBreakout17:26

Carnell Tate has the potential to break out under Brian Daboll, who has a track record of fast-tracking high-pedigree wide receivers in their first year with the team, as evidenced by Malik Nabers' WR1 rookie season and Stephon Diggs' elite production in Buffalo.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeRole0:38

Rodriguez is sitting out minicamp and is a zero in the passing game, making him less attractive than Bashful Tootin in the Jacksonville backfield.

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Cole Kmet

PositiveRole0:25

Kmet is a guy the analyst wants exposure to and doesn't want to be without in the Bears offense.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection0:23

Loveland has a chance to lead the Bears in targets and is being drafted in the second round across multiple formats, indicating strong conviction.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeValue0:14

DJ Moore's ADP cost is prohibitive at round five in FFPC leagues, with better alternatives available like Terry McLaurin and Jalen Waddle going directly next to him, making him a hard click despite his 2024 WR1 finish.

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NegativeProjection0:15

Moore showed troubling signs last year and is a little bit older, with the analyst preferring to get him inside round six rather than round five where he's currently being drafted.

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PositiveValue0:18

Moore has significant Dynasty exposure at a cheaper price tag than his redraft cost, allowing for profit if he has a great year in Dynasty while avoiding the expensive redraft ADP.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveInjury0:10

Kincaid has been saying he feels the healthiest since entering the NFL, though he has a history of disappointing returns at ADP over two consecutive years.

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PositiveSleeper0:11

Kincaid is a post-hype sleeper with a better pathway to ceiling outcomes than Mark Andrews, with strong target-earning pedigree from his rookie year and potential for increased route participation if healthy.

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PositiveProjection0:13

In Dynasty, Kincaid is a cheap source of a long-term starting tight end attached to Josh Allen, with redraft and Dynasty value in the high-end tight end two to low-end tight end one range (tight end 12-15).

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Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection18:27

Daniel Jones delivered a top-8 scoring season under Brian Daboll after being 'down in the dumps,' demonstrating Daboll's ability to maximize quarterback fantasy production despite Jones not being Josh Allen.

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Denzel Boston

PositiveBreakout0:27

Boston is one of the biggest ADP risers, moving from wide receiver 80 to 65 and likely heading to the wide receiver 50 range; beat reporters say he looks like the best scope position player at OTAs and minicamp.

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PositiveProjection0:27

Boston was projected as a first-round NFL draft pick and is an alpha receiver with 20 touchdown grabs over the last two years at Washington, 25% target share, and elite size at 6'4", 212 lbs.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveRole17:26

D.K. Metcalf will be mixed in as a weapon in the Cardinals offense, though his exact role remains to be determined with the addition of multiple high-profile receivers.

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Emeka Egbuka

PositiveValue0:21

Egbuka is preferred over Tee McMillan at similar ADP, with potential to be a wide receiver 15 in ADP and finish as a top-6 receiver on the year.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveValue0:21

Wilson is available behind Tee McMillan in draft order, making him a more appealing option than McMillan at his current ADP.

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Gunnar Helm

PositiveValue17:21

Gunnar Helm is an interesting piece of the Cardinals offense at a cheap price, with the potential to deliver value given how inexpensive it is to acquire pieces of this offense.

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James Cook

PositiveValue0:17

Cook is appropriately priced at first round ADP after receiving a great discount for two years in a row, with potential for further discount if Alvin Kamara is traded to Buffalo.

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Josh Allen

PositiveValue0:17

Allen is priced right as the cleanest way to get Buffalo offensive exposure, with both he and James Cook being appropriately valued.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeInjury0:32

Jacobs faces off-the-field legal concerns that could affect his 2026 availability, with potential commissioner's exemption list implications.

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PositiveValue0:33

Jacobs is not a must-have at his current ADP; while he's come down a full round to running back 17, the discount isn't large enough to warrant a strong take.

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NegativeProjection0:33

Green Bay is likely to be more pass-happy this year, reducing Jacobs' volume; the team has invested heavily in passing weapons (Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, Tucker Craft) and fixed Jordan Love's footwork.

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NegativeProjection0:34

At 28 years old with a long history of high volume, Jacobs' age and mileage are catching up with him, raising durability concerns.

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Malik Nabers

PositiveProjection17:26

Malik Nabers finished as a WR1 in his rookie year under Brian Daboll, excelling in every metric including target share, air yard share, and first read rate, establishing a template for Carnell Tate's potential.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveValue0:07

Andrews is a value pick at tight end 14 in FFPC/NFFC, with a chance to beat ADP with touchdown scoring as the primary driver in a potentially more balanced offense under new coordinator Declan Doyle.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Andrews could finish inside the top 10 at tight end, with a decent bounce back expected as the most likely receiver to step up alongside Zay Flowers in Baltimore's offense.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveProjection0:32

Lloyd is the likely backup to Josh Jacobs in Green Bay if healthy, with positive reports coming out of the team.

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Parker Washington

PositiveProjection0:41

Washington scored 18+ points in 5 of his last 7 games including the playoffs last year and looks locked in; he's expected to get a big contract.

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Rome Odunze

PositiveValue0:23

Odunze is off the board at current cost; he's likely to be a number three target earner in the offense, which is a bad bet, though he could be a value if ADP drops.

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NegativeInjury0:23

Odunze has a foot issue that is concerning; the analyst doesn't love hearing about foot problems at this time of year, citing Allen Robinson's similar injury as a cautionary tale.

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Tony Pollard

PositiveValue16:55

Tony Pollard is significantly undervalued in drafts despite four consecutive 1,000-rushing-yard seasons, sitting at RB30-32 ADP and offering cheap RB2/flex value as an 'innings eater' at the beginning of the season.

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PositiveRole17:05

Tony Pollard is clearly the best running back on the Cardinals roster and should see increased touches and field time if the offense sustains drives better, making him a real value at RB30-32 ADP.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection0:38

Lawrence looks fantastic at minicamp and is the best way to play the Jacksonville offense; he was taken in round 10 of the main event and is a cheap, easy click at his current ADP.

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Wan'Dale Robinson

PositiveRole17:27

Wandale Robinson is a target earner with the ability to deliver WR3 value in flex weeks, having accumulated 140 targets in back-to-back years, though that number may decline with Carnell Tate's emergence.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveRole0:08

Flowers is expected to see extra opportunities in a potentially more balanced offense under new coordinator Declan Doyle, who may increase pass volume from Baltimore's historically bottom-of-the-barrel pass attempt rate.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Flowers could finish as a top 6-7 wide receiver on the year, with upside outcome potentially higher than Tederoa McMillan.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Flowers has higher upside potential than Tee McMillan this year, with a realistic path to finish as a top-6 or top-7 wide receiver.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

840
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0:3821 plus only. Must be physically located in Virginia.
0:40TNCs apply. In-app only. All right, welcome everybody to the very first episode of the Dominator Podcast.
0:46I'm your host and your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson.
0:48You can find me on X at OverhypedSleeper. Just dropped the final E from Sleeper.
0:53And I just wanted to kind of give you a little bit of a history of the show.
0:59This was a show that's been around Player Profiler for a while.
1:03Billy Muzio started it, I believe. And Josh Clarky has also been running the show and now it's my turn.
1:09So what I decided to do, I talked to Matt a few weeks back about starting another podcast.
1:14I wanted something that was a little bit more like the old goat district for those of you who remember that.
1:21That was a fun show. We had weekly guests who really, I thought, represented the very best of fantasy football.
1:27We had the best analysts, the best high stakes players, best high volume players.
1:32And we also, from time to time, brought on some newer voices that we felt like deserved a wider audience.
1:38So it was a lot of fun. Our goal, though, is to really help you dominate.
1:43Whether you're talking about bringing home a six or seven figure contest prize, whether you're talking about playing high stakes games for
1:50profit, or just winning your home or office league, that's what we're here to do is to help you out and make
1:57it possible for you to have an easier time winning those leagues.
2:00And so over the course of episodes, we might talk dynasty.
2:04We might talk best ball. We might talk redraft managed leagues.
2:07We'll definitely talk contest leagues. So no matter what your format is, we're going to have something for you.
2:13We want to make this show a lot of fun.
2:16And for those of you who are familiar with the Fantasy Empire, don't worry.
2:21That show is going to continue on as a separate entity with me still hosting and all the guys with me as well.
2:28So that's going to be a lot of fun.
2:31We'll probably be starting that up in about a month or so.
2:34But right now, running a guest-based show is something I've always wanted to get back to since the goat district kind of dissolved.
2:42And so we're doing it. And speaking of the goat district, I felt it was only fitting that my first guest traces his roots back to that show.
2:50And I tell you, it didn't take me long to realize we had found ourselves a real diamond in the rough.
2:57You know, he has gone on to much bigger and better things.
3:01But without further introduction, I'm bringing you the man who needs no introduction.
3:05Welcome, Theo. Yeah, thanks for having me on, Dan.
3:08I figured we should get on the mic and talk fantasy since we talk fantasy every single day this time of year.
3:15And I'm really stoked to see that you're running this podcast feed.
3:18Billy crushed it. Josh Larky did a great job with it.
3:22I know you're going to take it to even bigger and better heights.
3:26So yeah, man, stoked to chop it up with you today.
3:29We're in a main event. So we're talking like every couple of hours, kind of looking at this board, doing this nice slow FFPC main event.
3:37So yeah, anybody who doesn't know, Dan and I, we split teams every single year.
3:42We get together in Vegas every single year. Shout out to Andrew Schellenberg as well.
3:47And yeah, I got my podcasting start with Dan and JD in the goat district.
3:51So this sort of comes all full circle. Yeah, I love it.
3:55Love it. And, you know, there was no doubt in my mind when I decided, OK, I'm going to run this podcast.
4:02I was like, OK, Theo's got to be the first guest.
4:05You know, JD is going to make it on here as well.
4:09But he's just kind of in the middle of a move to Portugal.
4:13So wishing him good luck. And, you know, that's a it's a big, big change.
4:18But he's he's still excited about fantasy football as well.
4:21And what do you what do you say, Theo?
4:24Is it going to be Nixon five here? I mean, what a game last night, huh?
4:29It's over. It's Nixon five. Anybody watched it's it's going to be hard for a young team like San Antonio to bounce back after a meltdown like that.
4:38It was pandemonium in my house. My nine year old stayed up till the bitter end.
4:43His brother was seven, fell asleep and my daughter fell asleep.
4:46But my wife and my nine year old and I, we were just going nuts at the end.
4:52So it was it was it was it was quiet?
4:55Was it the quiet sort of nuts because you had two sleeping kids?
4:59No, like, yeah, you know, no, not not quite.
5:02Not quiet at all with him. They slept through it, though.
5:05He didn't wake them up, thankfully. But I mean, we weren't the only ones.
5:10It was it was if you're a Knicks fan, this was incredible.
5:13If you're a Spurs fan, it's about as bad as it gets.
5:17But the game itself, you don't usually see that.
5:20It's sort of the NBA equivalent to New England, Atlanta Super Bowl.
5:24I guess we could call that. But an all time comeback in sports.
5:28It was absolutely electric. So, yeah, it's over. It's over, Dan.
5:31Yeah, it certainly seems like it. And I mean, you know, Wimbaniya, he's got he's got one more flagrant to give and he's he's out for a game.
5:40That's that's going to be. Yeah, that's going to make it really hard on him.
5:45But it's a tough one. It's tough. Yeah, for sure.
5:48So let's talk a little bit about minicamp. And I found it kind of funny because Theo's show this morning, he he was talking all about minicamp.
5:56It's like, wow, that's that's cool because that's exactly what we're doing here.
6:00So Theo should be well practiced for this and I'll do my best to keep up with him.
6:06But, you know, right now, minicamp is kind of the thing that's going on.
6:10And this is sort of the last hurrah for a little while.
6:14Once minicamps are over, it's a little bit of a fantasy news desert for a while because everything sort of shuts down.
6:21Players kind of take those last vacations, you know, to wherever it is that they want to go or do whatever rehab they need to do.
6:29And we don't really start getting a lot of hard news again until training camp.
6:34So, you know, unless they're making the police blotter or something, we're just not going to hear a lot from from players or about players.
6:42It'll mostly just be fluff pieces that we can sort of safely ignore that, you know, they're not going to be worth a whole lot.
6:49But let's deal. Let's let's drive into some of the more interesting situations and just kind of we'll go through it and
6:56start talking about a few different teams. I want to start out with Baltimore, you know, how how are you feeling about the team in Baltimore?
7:04I mean, obviously, Zay Flowers is somebody that everybody seems to be on right now.
7:09But do you see Mark Andrews as being a value pick as tight end 14?
7:14It's interesting because I think that we talk ourselves into to Mandrews because of the history with Lamar Jackson.
7:20Maybe it's the you know, sort of the Tony Pollard corollary where it's going to be slow for him to come back.
7:27And now you're going to see him a little bit healthier than we saw last year.
7:32I can get into Mark Andrews as a value pick.
7:35I don't think he's a guy who's going to wreck leagues, but I believe it's tight end 14 right now in places like FFPC and NFFC.
7:43I think he'll be about that and a chance to beat that ADP with touchdowns.
7:47I think touchdown scoring is going to be sort of the driver for Mandrews at this at this day and age.
7:54But I do think there's been some promising talk about what Declan Doyle wants to do in terms of making them into a really fast paced offense.
8:02And Dan, we've talked about this like a lot of it was a flowers is Baltimore has been like bottom of the barrel in terms of pass attempts.
8:11Maybe with Declan Doyle, they're slightly more balanced, even being like the 20th ranked in terms of pass volume or 25th in
8:18terms of pass volume adds extra opportunities for Lamar Jackson and for Zay Flowers.
8:23So I think we'll see that. And I have this like kind of vibe with Declan Doyle that this is like a
8:29smartest man in the room type vibe where he gets this coordinator job at like 29, 30 years old.
8:35He seems like he's fast tracked for being an NFL head coach.
8:39And I think that Baltimore offense bounces back in a major way.
8:43So I think Mandrews, I would say I'm I'm neutral on.
8:46I'm definitely open minded to drafting him. I think I believe you took him in the the hard way draft that we drafted against each other.
8:54Was that your Mandrews team? No, no, I didn't get Mandrews there.
8:58I did a Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard. Yeah. And Arande Gadsden.
9:02I did. I was at the turn and took those two basically back to back.
9:06But yeah, I'm with you on on Mandrews. I think that he's you know, he's probably got to be an answer here.
9:13And if he's not, I mean, if you if you can't talk yourself into Mandrews, then I think you need to ask
9:20yourself, what other receiver on this team can you talk yourself into?
9:24Because you're probably going to need to. You know, it's not going to be just Zay Flowers and nobody else.
9:30It's, you know, do you need to look at Rashad Bateman?
9:33Do you need to be looking at one of the rookies?
9:37You know, I think that somebody else is going to step up here.
9:41I think Mark Andrews is the most likely possibility.
9:44And so, yeah, I see a decent bounce back.
9:47I think he can finish, you know, inside the top 10 at tight end.
9:51I don't expect him to be, you know, top five or six or anything like that.
9:56But I'm with you. I think he's you know, you got to have him or you got to find somebody else.
10:03What about in Buffalo? Let's let's stick with the tight ends here.
10:06What are we doing with Dalton Kincaid? Who's going off at tight end 12?
10:11You think he's a better and best ball pick or can you can you get behind him in managed leagues too?
10:17Well, Kincaid's been saying, you know, how healthy he feels.
10:20This is the healthiest he's felt since he was in the NFL.
10:24He's been a player that I think there's a lot of like scorn drafters with.
10:29So you're going to get that. I'm not drafting Dalton Kincaid again.
10:33I've heard this story type every year. It's been two really disappointing years in a row in terms of him returning value at ADP.
10:40But you look back at what he was able to do in terms of like being a target earner his rookie year.
10:47I think we get back to those sort of numbers.
10:50I think a lot of it with Kincaid is how much do we are we into DJ more if we think DJ
10:57more is like this screaming value and he's going to crush his ADP and he's going to be this massive target earner.
11:04And maybe DJ more is like a 25 26 percent target share guy.
11:08Then I could see sort of fading Kincaid. But if you're on the DJ more is like a 21 percent target share
11:15type and probably is does just enough but doesn't really crush it.
11:19Then I think I'm open minded to Kincaid. I do see the better in best ball argument because you're Josh Allen's like
11:25in his own little mini tier, but it's not like cost prohibitive to taking some Josh Allen exposure.
11:31So you're looking to get correlation with him. Do you cram in a DJ more early or do you wait and add a Kincaid?
11:39I think I'm maybe a little more open minded adding Kincaid.
11:42That being said, I think if you're stuck in a redraft league, I know like we considered Kincaid in our main event.
11:49We pivoted to it in another direction. But when you're getting down into like the ninth round, tenth round in FFPC leagues,
11:56it sort of makes sense to mix in, you know, a player with that sort of pedigree experience in the offense.
12:02And it feels like he's a little bit of like a kind of a post type sleeper type where everybody's just sort
12:09of viewing him as a structural pick. But I think he's got a better pathway to get a ceiling outcome than like a guy like a Mark Andrews.
12:18Yeah, I totally agree with that because, I mean, when they've used him, he has been a strong performer for the team.
12:25You know, the problem is he's bounced around the, you know, 35, 45 percent route rate.
12:30And that's even with that, you know, when he's been up over 40 percent on routes, he's had some really, really good games.
12:37You know, you can just only imagine if they had him up, you know, 60, 70 percent of routes, what kind of games he might be capable of.
12:46But the way that they run their offense, I don't think he's ever going to get to a huge, you know, like
12:53he's not going to be a top tight end as far as routes run or anything like that.
12:58He's going to be a guy that they put in there.
13:02But when they put him in there, there's a very good chance that he's, you know, a first read target.
13:08And so I think that with Kincaid, if you can bet on that his knee is in better shape, then I think
13:15he's a decent bet to make because of the fact that they'll probably have him out there running more in that 40
13:22to 50 to 60 percent route range instead of down in the 20 to 30 percent route range when which he's had
13:29on those times where he suited up, but clearly hasn't been totally healthy.
13:33What do you what do you think about him in Dynasty, Theo?
13:36I have a Dalton Kincaid exposure in Dynasty. Again, I think he's a guy that is a cheap source of a long
13:43term starting tight end who's attached to Josh Allen.
13:46Would I like him if he ends up going to about half the teams in the NFL as much as I like him attached to Josh Allen?
13:55Probably not as much. But I do think that when you see these guys who have this sort of draft capital pedigree,
14:01they sort of stay relevant in the NFL for years and years.
14:05So even if he did have to move on, I think there'd be a number of teams interested in adding Kincaid.
14:12This is a big year for him for sure.
14:15But I think he's got some insulation. He's not a guy that you need to like steam up in the Dynasty rankings,
14:21but I think sort of makes sense about where he's at.
14:25I'd say his redraft and his Dynasty value is somewhat similar, probably in the high end tight end two, low end tight end one range.
14:33If you're bullish, right around tight end 12. If you're bearish, probably around tight end 15.
14:38But you really can't justify pushing Kincaid lower than that.
14:41Yeah, I think that's fair to say. And it sounds to me like you're maybe a little bit lukewarm on Moore there as well.
14:48Do you DJ more? Do you see him? I get the I get the appeal of DJ more, and I certainly think
14:55this is a bounce back season for him. But I was just a little bit surprised.
15:00Like it's more of like an opportunity cost of like the guys he's going around where I feel like Dan, we would
15:07have been maybe more people would have punished him more for the season that he had last year.
15:13If we were drafting a couple years ago. But people are like more willing to kind of forget what just happened and chase the upside outcome.
15:21So I get it. DJ Moore was a wide receiver one in 2024.
15:25It's not like too long ago. But last year we saw really some troubling signs.
15:30He's a little bit older. And I would be way more open to drafting him if we were able to get him inside of like the sixth round.
15:38But the problem is you're seeing him like living inside of round five in FFPC leagues.
15:43And when you're looking at the guys going right next to him, I'd prefer Terry McLaurin.
15:48I'd prefer Jalen Waddle. So I'm already liking the two wide receivers going directly next to him.
15:54And then he's in that like range where there's some kind of dead zone running backs that might make sense.
16:00So it's just for me, it's just been a hard click.
16:03And it's even higher opportunity cost to draft him.
16:06Like in DraftKings best ball where I've been playing mostly underdog.
16:10But I think I'm going to get some exposure in DraftKings.
16:13He's been going in the fourth round. So you're using a fourth round pick on him.
16:18So like I don't hate DJ Moore, but I hate the ADP cost that I have to pay right now.
16:24Yeah, I'm with you. I'm having a hard time clicking his name because it seems like there's always somebody more appealing that's available.
16:32So, you know, just to get, you know, a little bit more exposure, I'm probably going to need to start clicking that
16:38name at least a couple of times. But yeah, it's just not a fun click for me.
16:44Anybody else in this passing offense that you have any interest in?
16:48Khalil Shakir? Or is that just pretty much like, you know, high floor or low ceiling?
16:53Not interested? I think if you're in a deep dynasty format, I have interest in some Skylar Bell.
16:58But it has to be a pretty deep dynasty format.
17:01I mean, I really think it's probably going to be pretty consolidated offense like it usually is.
17:07There's going to be weeks where guys like Khalil Shakir will deliver.
17:10But good luck trying to figure out which ones they are.
17:14And it's really a Josh Allen, James Cook. That's kind of the way I want to get exposure to Buffalo.
17:20I think both of them are priced right. James Cook, you have to pay a first round pick for.
17:26I think if the Alvin Kamara does get traded to Buffalo, like there's some rumblings about, maybe we'll start seeing James Cook
17:33at like the 201, 202 a little more. You've seen that in some of these main events.
17:38But we've also seen him go at like the 107, 108.
17:42So I think James Cook is appropriately priced. We've gotten this great discount on him for two years in a row.
17:48And now there's this like huge price correction. So I don't know.
17:52I think Buffalo, we know they're going to score a lot of points.
17:56But if you want like the cleanest outcome, guys, it's just take Josh Allen, take James Cook.
18:01And then if your league fades DJ Moore a little bit, maybe he goes a little later by the time.
18:08I don't see how he's going to go later, Dan.
18:11It feels like he's kind of his ADP is pretty much stuck.
18:14But if he does fall, I guess I'd be open-minded to it, at least having some DJ Moore, Josh Allen correlation.
18:21I actually have a good amount of DJ Moore in Dynasty.
18:24The Dynasty price tag for him is cheaper. The redraft cost is just so high.
18:29So I guess if he has a great year, I'll profit off of it in Dynasty.
18:34But redraft, I don't think he's going to kill me.
18:37That's the way it's done. You've got to have that exposure across different formats.
18:42So that, you know, like if you're totally out in one format, you might be in another and you can profit there.
18:49Love how you're doing that, Theo. All right, we're going to take a quick break.
18:53We will be right back. You may draft a great team in fantasy football, but if those players get hurt, you're toast.
19:00So let's put my glasses on here. And we're going to talk about injury probability because we have the data.
19:06And now we have an app called the Injury Finder where you can look up if a player is more likely than
19:13another player to get hurt and miss significant time for your fantasy team this year.
19:18Running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends. We have all of their precise injury probabilities.
19:23It is in the App Store right now. It is five bucks for the 2026 injury probabilities.
19:28Check it out. It's InjuryFinder.com, App Store, Google Play, five bucks.
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20:08From athletic to athletic-ish, Sierra's got it. All right, and we're back.
20:12So, Theo, let's move on to Carolina. I think kind of an interesting passing offense.
20:17Sort of low volume here. So, I'm curious. How do you feel about Tech McMillan in this offense?
20:22Are you taking him at ADP? Are you concerned about his pass volume?
20:26It sounds like his injury might be a non-factor.
20:29He was practicing today. So, you know, maybe that's not a big deal.
20:33But what do you think about Tech McMillan in that offense?
20:37I mean, the two of us were kind of all over Tech McMillan as a talent.
20:42I know last year we both were kind of bullish on him coming to Carolina.
20:46I think that he's like an alpha wide receiver in a situation where he might fail to deliver.
20:52Tight end 16 overall in FFPC main events. And I understand it because it's like the unknown upside outcome.
20:58It's a really good profile. It's a guy with top 10 NFL draft capital.
21:02And he's the clear-cut wide receiver one on his team.
21:06And it would usually be like the kind of profile that I would gravitate towards.
21:10And like chase that unknown upside. Chase wide receiver heavy builds.
21:14But I don't know. I haven't been clicking the button.
21:17Again, it's a very expensive price tag. And when I look at, I can draft Emeka Egbuka right there next to Tederoa McMillan.
21:24I'm going Egbuka every single time. And then I'm able to get guys like Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers behind Tederoa McMillan.
21:31I actually think that the upside outcome for Zay Flowers might be higher than McMillan this year.
21:36And I don't have concerns about that offense scoring points.
21:39And I don't have quarterback concerns. So for me, it's sort of an anti-Brice Young take.
21:44I believe in Dave Canales. I think they're going to try to run things through McMillan.
21:49But the chances that he crushes that wide receiver 16 price tag.
21:53Like I think there's a chance that Egbuka could be a wide receiver 15 in ADP and be like wide receiver 6 on the year.
22:01I think Zay Flowers could be a top 6, 7 wide receiver on the year.
22:05I don't see a scenario where McMillan just absolutely crushes it and rises tides and is like wide receiver 5 this year.
22:12And you regret passing on him. So it's another situation where it's a I love the talent, love the player, don't like the ADP.
22:20It is interesting the weight gain where it sounds like McMillan last year tried to be really light and was kind of
22:26uncomfortable playing at such a light weight. He says he put on 17 pounds of muscle.
22:31The guy looks incredibly rocked up. You worry about that maybe a little bit.
22:36But I'm sort of open-minded to that. That really has nothing to do with the fade.
22:41I just thought it was an interesting kind of thing we've learned early in the mandatory minicamps.
22:46Yeah, I was kind of surprised to see that as well.
22:50That seems like for a guy his size, that's a huge amount of weight to gain.
22:55And it looks good on him. There's no question about that.
22:58But I'm with you. I think if McMillan was going about a round later, if he was going around where Devontae Adams is going, Jalen Waddell, T.
23:07Higgins, kind of in that range, I would be much more able to be clicking that button.
23:12But I'm having a really hard time. Because the guys you mentioned, I think they definitely, I'm taking any of them before McMillan.
23:19I'm taking Terry McLaurin before him. And so by the time I'm starting to look at him, he's long gone in my drafts.
23:26Yeah, I'm with you. How about Chicago? You concerned about Odunze's foot?
23:30I was always sort of off of Roma-Dunze this year at cost.
23:34I think we'll be interested to see if the gap between him and Burden continues to grow and grow and grow.
23:40I might be open-minded to Odunze if the ADP comes down a little bit more.
23:45But I think that, for me, Colston Loveland is the guy that I think both of us have been extremely bullish on.
23:52We just drafted him in the main event that we're doing in the second round.
23:57I drafted him in a 350 that I did with Scott Barrett in the second round over at FFPC.
24:02And then I just drafted him in a triflex startup with Scott Barrett in the second round.
24:08So I'm all over Loveland. I think Loveland has a chance to lead this team in targets.
24:13So, like, that's one. Like, Odunze, there's a chance he's the number three target earner in this offense.
24:19Number three target earners are a bad bet to make.
24:22If he ends up leading the team in targets, he could end up being a real value where I think he's going to fall to.
24:30But I don't love hearing about foot problems this time of the year.
24:34I know Allen Robinson talked about how he had similar issues to this.
24:38And this was when you saw, like, a quick downfall of Allen Robinson's career with that foot problem.
24:43So I don't love it. There's been other doctors who say that kind of Odunze's comments were sort of misconstrued.
24:50And he's right. And it won't really cause any performance issue.
24:53But it's just a comfort level with kind of dealing with the foot after it.
24:58So I think there's a lot of mixed messages out there.
25:01But end of the day, my bet would be heavy on Loveland.
25:05Want to have some exposure to Burden. He feels like a guy who you don't want to be without.
25:11And then probably Odunze for me is the number three guy on the pecking order.
25:16If he falls into a range that's really fun, then I'll mix some in for sure.
25:21And right now you're seeing him still at, like, that 5-6 turn.
25:24I wonder if we start seeing, like, late 6th, early 7th round exposure if the gap grows a little bit.
25:31But I think probably not. I think he probably settles into the middle of the 6th round.
25:36Yeah, I'm with you there. You know, and JD and I in the Hardway Dynasty League, we made a big move to get Odunze before the rookie draft.
25:45And, you know, I felt pretty good about it at the time.
25:49I got a little bit more queasy when that comment about, you know, he's having to figure out a new normal.
25:55You know, that gives me just sort of that little feeling that you don't love in the pit of your stomach.
26:02So we'll see how that goes. I am with you.
26:05I think that Burden is probably the better chance.
26:08But I don't think it's necessarily cut and dried.
26:10I mean, I could see the situation being where it's like Loveland is sort of continuously getting fed most weeks.
26:17And then it could flip-flop back and forth between, you know, Burden and Odunze on a game-by-game basis.
26:22That's what really scares me is if it's one of those situations where you just can't tell going into the game.
26:29Is this going to be a Burden game or is this going to be an Odunze game?
26:34You know, totally fine for best ball, obviously. But when we're talking about managed leagues and having to put a player in
26:41your starting lineup that you're probably going to be counting on, that's going to be a little bit tougher.
26:47So I think we'll be interested to see how that one develops over the course of training camp and everything.
26:53How about in Cleveland? Some news out of Cleveland.
26:56It seems like there might be a little bit more of a quarterback controversy than we thought originally.
27:02Shador Sanders and Deshaun Watson battling it out a little bit.
27:05But then I think even more interesting, we've got Concepcion, Boston, and Fannin all kind of gunning for targets.
27:11And Jerry Judy sitting out today. What's your read on the Cleveland receiver room?
27:15And are you backing any horses there? It's an interesting one.
27:19I think that there is an argument to make in best ball right now.
27:23If you're a best ball drafter to double-tap Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston, Boston's one of the biggest ADP risers we've seen.
27:30He was like wide receiver 80. Now he's wide receiver 65.
27:34And I feel like he's going to come up into the wide receiver 50 range.
27:38Because the vibes out of Cleveland, there's a lot of beat reporters who are saying he looks like the best scope position player in OTAs.
27:46And now they're saying the same thing again about mandatory minicamp.
27:50Boston was sort of the forgotten man because Casey Concepcion went in the first round.
27:54And I had Casey Concepcion ahead of Denzel Boston.
27:57But I had Denzel Boston projected to be a first round pick in the NFL draft.
28:02It was one of the only first round picks I got wrong there, Dan, this year when I ran pure.
28:08You nailed it. Yeah, nailed it this year. But Denzel Boston, he was an alpha.
28:13He had 20 touchdown grabs the last two years at Washington.
28:16He was like a 25% target share guy. He's an absolute unit.
28:20He's like Drake London size. He's like 6'4", 2'12".
28:23And he's making big plays downfield. Not a burner.
28:26More of a big athletic sort of agile player than like a guy who's going to be a Chris Brazel type and just get behind the defense.
28:34But Boston could end up being a problem. Casey Concepcion, I think, is uber talented.
28:39He also had a big play where I think it was Mary Kay Cabot.
28:43She posted this video and they called offensive pass interference.
28:46But Concepcion looked unbelievable on this play. Just go check it out.
28:50So it's and I think that Cleveland has been drafting incredibly well the last two years.
28:55So I think that they've figured it out. Last year they hit on Judkins.
29:00They hit on Fannin. They hit on several defensive players that look like long-term guys for them.
29:05It seems like this front office knows what they're doing.
29:08And I think that they're going to hit this year again on both of the wide receivers as well as Spencer Fanno.
29:15So I believe in this offense. I think if you're a dynasty manager, get access to all of these guys.
29:21Redraft, it's a more interesting conversation when you're talking about Fannin.
29:25But I do think there's something to be said where Fannin, you know, we're trying to put mental gymnastics on it.
29:31And certainly he was a loser after the NFL draft.
29:34But this guy came into the league and nuked David Njoku like right away.
29:39And David Njoku was super successful for us in fantasy for multiple years.
29:43And Fannin did this as a 21-year-old coming out of the MAAC, where there's usually a ramp-up period.
29:48Even for like all-timers who come out of the MAAC, like Antonio Brown.
29:52Like they usually need a little time to get it going in the NFL.
29:57Fannin did it right away. Led his team in catches.
30:00Led his team in targets. He has incredible yak ability.
30:03He's got a great wingspan. And so I get it.
30:06The pathway for Fannin to become the tight end one overall is probably not there.
30:11But I do think if he starts falling a little bit in ADP because of the love of the rookie wide receivers,
30:18then he makes for a great structural pick. And if you're picking your formats, like FFPC, it might be the hardest decision with Fannin.
30:25But NFFC, underdog, draft kings, I think you can mix in your exposure as sort of like a bet on talent.
30:32And I would say that even with those rookie wide receivers flashing and looking like they're ahead of schedule, Fannin would still
30:39be probably the best bet to lead this team in terms of target share.
30:43I wonder what you think on that one, Dan.
30:46Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting. I think it's going to kind of come down to Fannin and Concepcion are eating off the same plate.
30:54I think Boston is eating off kind of a different plate entirely.
30:58And I love a big X receiver who can just go up and play bully ball.
31:03And that's what Boston looks like. So I think he's a really, really fun pick, especially since he's the cheapest.
31:09But I think in managed leagues, you can probably take Fannin and then take Concepcion several rounds later and just kind of
31:16hedge your bet for a little while and see which one of them turns out to be dominant.
31:22Because the odds are one of them will come out looking pretty good.
31:26I think with Cleveland, it's just going to be a matter of how quickly does this offensive line gel together.
31:32So we might have to be patient with any players from Cleveland that we draft.
31:37You know, we're talking about, you know, either Deshaun Watson coming off a long layoff or Shadur Sanders still being green, a new offensive line.
31:44You know, we got a new head coach, new offense.
31:47You know, there's a lot of newness going on there.
31:51And I agree with you. I think they're on the right track.
31:54I think they've done some incredible drafting. And I think we'll probably see it start to come together as we get through, you know, four, five, six weeks.
32:03I think we'll start seeing what this offense can really look like.
32:07Let's move on to Green Bay. I mean, both of us are buying in on Christian Watson.
32:12But what are you doing with Josh Jacobs after, you know, the arrest and everything else?
32:17I mean, it seems like that's still kind of hanging over him.
32:21You know, we haven't really heard anything more. Are you worried about it?
32:25Are you taking the discount right now? And who do you think his backup is?
32:30I think the backup is Marshawn Lloyd. We heard some positivity coming out about Marshawn Lloyd.
32:35I think if he's healthy, he's the guy there.
32:38They haven't made any, like, big aggressive moves to add additional backs.
32:41So I think maybe there's a little bit of internal optimism that this is something that maybe would affect him in 2027 more so than 2026.
32:49You do worry about, like, the commissioner's exemption list.
32:52I talked about Josh Jacobs as well as, like, Rashi Rice, Malik Nabors, a couple of these guys from a dynasty lens.
32:59Guys who are, like, kind of dangerous players to roster in dynasty based on potential circumstances.
33:04And Josh Jacobs, I made one trade in dynasty where I pivoted off of him for Ramondre Stevenson and a second.
33:11I think that's about the value you can get for him now.
33:14I get the appeal of clicking on that button in redraft, but I'm not seeing him fall to a range where I'm like, I need to take him.
33:23This is the player that's going to win me my league.
33:27I mean, we're seeing now FFPC main event data.
33:29He's what, like the 312 now? So he's come down a full round, but it's not like this massive gap.
33:36He's, like, running back 17. I think the low in main events is probably the 4-8, according to Fantasy Mojo.
33:42So, like, I don't know, Dan. It feels like it's going to be a source of predictable volume.
33:48But Green Bay, I think, is going to be a little bit more pass-happy than I think some people realize.
33:54And I think it's a self-scouting thing where Green Bay lost in really, I would say, demoralizing fashion this year to, like,
34:01their rival, the Chicago Bears in the playoffs, a game that could have gone either way.
34:06And then two seasons ago, they get woodshedded by Philadelphia.
34:09So they've had this Josh Jacobs-centric offense that's been fantastic in the regular season, but has got them literally nowhere in the postseason.
34:16They just gave a fortune to Christian Watson. Last year, they drafted Matthew Golden in round one.
34:21They extended Jaden Reed. And I think we're going to get a little bit more.
34:26And certainly, Tucker Craft, there's a ton of optimism with his injury and him coming back to the field.
34:32So I think you're going to see them lean a little bit more into Jordan Love.
34:37They talked about how they fixed Jordan Love's footwork this offseason.
34:40That was, like, something that they were stressing internally was the footwork for him as a passer.
34:46So it sounds like Jordan Love put in a ton of work this offseason, and I think we're going to see that.
34:53So with Jacobs, you're talking about a 28-year-old back who's had a ton of volume over the years.
34:58And when we say 28 for Jacobs, I believe Jacobs was, like, 20 when he came in the NFL.
35:04He's always been a high-volume guy. So you wonder about the volume catching up with him.
35:09Now you've got the off-the-field stuff. I don't feel he's a guy that I need.
35:14Now, if you're drafting 100 teams and you want to mix in some fourth-round Josh Jacobs, I totally get it.
35:20Unfortunately, pre-NFL draft, I took a good amount of him on an underdog best ball's pre-NFL draft.
35:25So I'm topped out here. I don't feel like I need to double down on this one, Dan.
35:31Yeah, that's sometimes the way it goes. Yeah, I was also in on him on early best ball drafts as well because,
35:38you know, I was looking at the situation. And weirdly enough, I kind of comped him a little bit to James Cook
35:45in that, you know, if Green Bay has a really good offense, which I think they've got a chance to do, and,
35:52you know, Love can distribute the ball and keep the chains moving, all that kind of stuff, you know, I don't know
35:59why Josh Jacobs couldn't do pretty much the same thing that James Cook is doing.
36:03You know, get a bunch of volume on the ground, not as many passes as we'd like.
36:09You know, we'd love to see the target. But, you know, those touchdowns, if he can be up in the, you know,
36:1514 touchdown range, something like that, you know, I think he's definitely going to pay off at his price.
36:21So, you know, he's one that doesn't scare me other than I think, you know, obviously we've got the, you know, the legal situation, which could happen.
36:30You know, I'm not a liar. I'm not going to speculate too much on that.
36:35But I will take the discount when he's there, when he's falling.
36:38You know, if he's getting into the mid to late fourth, he definitely becomes appealing for me.
36:44You know, he was one that I was looking at on our main event.
36:48But we really, we had T. Higgins available, and that was an easy one for me, T.
36:53Higgins over Josh Jacobs. But, you know, if T.
36:56hadn't have been there, I might have been starting to stump a little bit for Josh Jacobs.
37:01And I probably would have had to push you a little bit, it sounds like.
37:06I mean, you could have broken me on that one.
37:09It's always, that fourth round's weird. A lot of guys get dried up.
37:13And then you're looking at, like, Jacobs. You're looking at Malik Nabors with the injury.
37:18There's a lot of, like, guys who are so appealing, but you feel like maybe have a lot of downside risk.
37:25So, we went T. Higgins. We're not too worried about it.
37:28Yeah, exactly. You know, I feel like once you get, like, two, three, four players into the fourth round, it gets a little bit ugly for a while.
37:37You know, they're just players I don't have a lot of confidence in.
37:41You know, not as much as I do the first three rounds.
37:45Like, last year, round three was, you know, what I thought a pretty bad round, even the last half of round two.
37:51This year, I really start feeling squeamish, you know, once we start getting into round four.
37:56Yeah. All right. Man, Jacksonville, there's been a ton of words and ink and everything else spilled on the Jaguars.
38:03You know, I think the takeaways from the mini camps is Trevor Lawrence looks fantastic, and that's probably the best way to
38:10play this offense is just, you know, by Trevor Lawrence.
38:13But we also have, you know, we have Rodriguez, Chris Rodriguez sitting out, and Bashal Tootin has been looking really, really good.
38:20Brian Thomas Jr., it sounds like, has been looking great, and they've really been working on getting the deep ball chemistry between him and Lawrence.
38:27But then you've got Parker Washington, who sits right in, you know, Lawrence's sweet spot.
38:32This is where he prefers to throw the ball.
38:35So, how are you unscrambling the spaghetti bowl here?
38:38I'm open-minded to all four of those guys at cost.
38:41I think that there's a scenario where Trevor Lawrence is an easy click for us.
38:46We actually took him on our main event team.
38:48He came to us in round 10, and we considered him in round 9.
38:53It just sort of speaks volumes to the values you're seeing at the quarterback position, where people don't know where to start quarterback.
39:00It's kind of like, you're always going to have appealing quarterbacks in FFPC, in these drafts, in the 8th round, 9th round, 10th round.
39:07And then there's going to be a couple of good ones in the 11th as well.
39:12But Lawrence, I think, took a big step forward last year.
39:16I think we're going to continue to see that maturation with Liam Cohen.
39:20Liam Cohen did a great job with Baker Mayfield in Tampa, continued to do it with Trevor Lawrence, and I think we'll see it this year.
39:28So, I agree that Trevor Lawrence is the cheapest and maybe the easiest to click on.
39:33But I'm very open-minded to drafting Brian Thomas Jr.
39:36and Parker Washington. I'm open to double-tapping them there, where I think they both can beat their ADP.
39:42On underdog right now, it's wide receiver 32 for BTJ, wide receiver 34 for Parker Washington.
39:47And I put something out on X, where I was speaking positively about Brian Thomas Jr.
39:52The vibes feel great. And I know I had our friend Bradley Stouder, who I think is really sharp with his projections.
39:58You know, he said, you know, the guy's wide receiver 34 in ADP.
40:02I'm projecting him for wide receiver 31. And I think there's going to be a lot of smart people that do projections
40:09who are going to have him right around wide receiver 30, wide receiver 31.
40:14He's not the sort of player that you associate with Trevor Lawrence, like historically.
40:18You think about, like, the Evan Ingrams, the Christian Kirks, those kind of guys.
40:23Parker Washington last year. Guys who can operate in the slot, operate in, like, intermediate routes and around the line of scrimmage.
40:29But BTJ, I think, has a real pathway to beat these projectors by, like, 15%.
40:34And I think maybe 20%. We look at what he did as a rookie.
40:38BTJ's not, like, a theoretical fantasy football asset. He's a player that we already saw have a nearly 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown catch season as a rookie.
40:46First-round pick out of LSU. So there's a lot to like there.
40:50And, Dan, it's like, it's so funny where we talk about guys like DJ Moore, guys like Lad McConkie.
40:56It's like, last year totally didn't matter. We're just going to put you here in ADP.
41:01And with BTJ, there were drafters last year who were talking BTJ versus Amon Ross St.
41:06Brown at the 1-2 turn. And now they don't want to click that button at the 6-7 turn.
41:12So I don't get it. I think mixing in some BTJ makes a lot of sense.
41:17I also think Parker Washington last year, five out of his last seven games, including the NFL playoffs, scored 18 points or more.
41:24He looks locked in. And I think he's going to get a big contract.
41:28So I'm open-minded to both of those guys. And then Basial Tootin inside of round five, I mean, I get the downside arguments.
41:35I get that they wanted a little bit more Chris Rodriguez.
41:39But, I mean, Tootin, the situation reminds me a little bit of Chase Brown, where Chase Brown year two is kind of like Basial Tootin year two.
41:47It was Zach Moss and Chase Brown. It's Chris Rodriguez and Basial Tootin.
41:51And gravitating towards the younger player with a lot more speed and the ability to affect the game in the passing game,
41:58where Chris Rodriguez is sort of a zero there.
42:01Basial Tootin has a ton of outs where he could deliver.
42:04If he's the screen guy in this offense, he's the design target guy, then I think he's going to be really good.
42:11And I think he's also a chance to thrive around the goal line.
42:15And we know he's got the home run hitting ability.
42:19The guy said he's faster now, too, Dan. He said, I've improved on my 40-yard dash time.
42:24So I'm not sure how you do that. But I guess Basial Tootin is like a 4-2-5 now.
42:29So I get it. I mean, the cost is not prohibitive to taking Tootin in the fifth, one of the wide receivers
42:36in the sixth or the seventh, and then taking T-Law inside of round 10 and getting a really well-priced correlation slash stack
42:43to the team, and a team that I think can be top 10 in scoring once again.
42:49Yeah, I'm with you. This is a team that we definitely want pieces of.
42:53And I love the corollary that you pulled between them and the Bengals with Chase Brown and Zach Moss.
42:59I think that's a great one. That's about the perfect example right there.
43:03You know, I just can't really draft Chris Rodriguez because, you know, I'm drafting him at what, you know, running back 45 or something like that.
43:11I'm not even sure what it is. You know, but, and yeah, he could beat that ADP, but what is he going to beat it to?
43:19Is he going to get, you know, oh, he's going to turn into be, what, running back 35?
43:25You know, how much is that helping my team?
43:28Whereas Basial Tootin, if he hits, now we're talking, you know.
43:31So, is there a chance that he does fail, you know, that maybe Rodriguez gets too much work and Basial Tootin ends
43:38up as, you know, running back 30 instead of running back 22?
43:42I think that's possible. But I also think that Basial Tootin could end up, you know, being running back 13, 14, something like that pretty easily.
43:50So, I'm going to take my chances and take my swings on somebody who can give me a really high variance outcome
43:57that can help my teams rather than somebody who gets, if they get their high variance outcome, they're really not helping my team that much.
44:05Yeah, I feel like it's almost, it's funny because I feel like LaQuint Allen might be the more annoying back for Tootin.
44:11Where if Allen is mixed in in the passing game, is that going to be like, why are they giving targets to Allen?
44:19Those four receptions should have gone to Basial Tootin.
44:21But I don't think there's a scenario where we're like, oh man, Chris Rodriguez had 12 rushing touchdowns this year.
44:28I really could have grabbed him everywhere. I feel like he's just this kind of purgatory pick.
44:33I think he makes a little bit of sense to mix in some in best ball, but in redraft, it's a tough click.
44:40Yeah, definitely, definitely. And I'm for sure taking some of Brian Thomas Jr.
44:44and some Parker Washington as well. I mean, you know, Brian Thomas Jr., I think the reason why he's getting punished by
44:51drafters is every, you know, it's very well known that his best stretch of ball came with Mac Jones at quarterback.
44:58And, you know, that's all anybody talks about. Well, that's the only time to play good ball.
45:03But the thing is, you know, I don't think it's that Trevor Lawrence isn't capable of it.
45:08They just haven't done it yet. And last year, Thomas was hurt and that became a problem.
45:14You know, it was like, well, we're just going to go a different way because the offense isn't working going through him.
45:21So they just moved to a different way. So we haven't seen it yet.
45:25And that's why drafters are punishing him. But he's that guy who can give you, you know, I think, you know, a
45:3230 point plus week from time to time if he and Trevor Lawrence have a good connection.
45:37So that's that's what I'm looking for there. Parker Washington is more like, you know, hey, I want to try to get
45:44my, you know, 13 to 18 points, something like that.
45:47And I want to try to do that most weeks.
45:50And and that's very helpful. So it kind of depends on, you know, how my team build is going as to which
45:57one of those I'm more interested in. And they're both going off about the same spot in the in the draft.
46:04So a lot of times, you know, if you're if you're at the right place, you might have your pick of them
46:11and you can pick whichever one fits your build the best.
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47:13Let's move. Oh, for sure. We got we got to talk Cam Scadabo.
47:17Scadabo, actually. You know, with that amazing graphic that we got for the show this week.
47:22I love the Terminator Scadabo mashup there. It was that was a lot of fun.
47:27But what do you what do you think about Scadabo?
47:30I mean, I got to admit, Theo, I was totally off him going into the offseason here.
47:35I was just like, man, that that injury looked bad.
47:38You know, we've seen what happens to running backs who get the tightrope surgery.
47:43He had the tightrope surgery. Plus, you know, he it was a lot more than that.
47:48I was like, I just don't see how this guy can perform, you know, but yet we see him out there sneaking
47:55in reps in 11 on 11s when he's really not supposed to be there.
47:59And, you know, now he's out there with the 11 on 11s and the coaches are happy about it.
48:05He's you know, he's pulling backflips while playing softball, all that kind of stuff.
48:09So what do you what do you what do you see on Scadabo and throw in a little neighbors as well?
48:16Where where's the point where you're you're willing to hit the button on neighbors?
48:20I think neighbors is pretty easy. I think it's probably going to have to get into like Rashi Rice last year range
48:27where I think he's headed in that direction where there's a ton of pessimism on him injury wise.
48:33Will he fall into a range where you're like, OK, I can draft Malik neighbors in the sixth round and I can still put a great team together.
48:42But when you have to sort of click the button in round four, you're really forced to draft more wide receivers structurally.
48:48So you have like fewer outs in terms of like your build.
48:52So Malik neighbors has been one where I think right now be very, very cautious because I think if you want exposure
48:59to neighbors, you should backload your drafts and draft more in like the August 1st area than like the July 1st area
49:06when he becomes a little bit cheaper. Scadabo is is the story is awesome.
49:10And I think, Dan, it's like you usually are like injury pessimistic.
49:14And I think it's probably made you a lot of money money over the years.
49:19But I think that guys are you've seen in the NBA level where there's guys that have been able to bounce back
49:26a lot quicker than maybe they would. We would have thought Jason Tatum this year for the Boston Celtics is a great
49:33example where guys get these huge injuries and then are able to bounce back like five, six months ahead of schedule.
49:39It's absolutely crazy. And I think modern medicine recovery, they're just the advancements we can't even comprehend at this point.
49:45And I think you're seeing it with Scadabo where the guy looks awesome running routes.
49:50He's at mandatory minicamp. The clips are getting out there.
49:53The vibes are fantastic. And I think that his cost is fine.
49:57He's at running back 19. So it's a range where he's in the prototypical like dead zone.
50:02So you're obviously, you know, you're in a range where running backs can sort of bring a great deal of risk.
50:09But with Scadabo, we know that last year he averaged 16 and a half points per game, which was more than Ashton
50:16Gentty, more than Travion Henderson, more than Judkins, more than Hampton, led all rookies in points per game.
50:21Average showed the ability as a pass catcher and was super effective as a runner.
50:26And then you look at New York this year, neighbors slow out the gate.
50:30So there's a chance that Scadabo is the offensive focal point from game one.
50:35And then you look at the improvements that New York made where you have Francis Maui Noah.
50:40They're going to park him inside a guard. Tenth overall pick.
50:44Arguably the best run blocker out of this entire draft class.
50:47I had a huge pedigree player. Then you look at Pat Ricard, the 300-pound fullback who was so effective in Baltimore with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
50:55And then you look at the wide receiver position.
50:58And with no neighbors, they're going to have Malachi Fields like in the slot.
51:03So you're effectively using a three-tight end set. You're going heavy without going heavy.
51:07We're going to have Theo Johnson, Isaiah Likely, and Malachi Fields.
51:10I was in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, and Malachi Fields is bigger than a bunch of these tight ends we're getting excited about.
51:18You put Malachi Fields side-by-side with Justin Jolie, it's not even close.
51:22Malachi Fields is massive. So I think the run game in New York is going to be very effective.
51:28The mobility of Jackson Dart, we've already seen these two play well next to each other.
51:33And if you draft Cam Skadaboo, you understand that you might lose him again.
51:37But for the weeks he's out there, the scoring might be 15 points per game, and you're able to extract that inside of round five.
51:45So I think he's very appealing right now. Love it.
51:48Yeah. And I think with Skadaboo also, you've just got the possibility that you can take, especially in managed league, you can take Tyrone Tracy later.
51:56And the cost on Tracy is not prohibitive at all.
51:59So I'm not a handcuffed guy if you're talking about, hey, I'm going to have to take Bucky Irving and then take
52:06Kenny Gainwell just a couple of rounds later. I don't want to do that.
52:10But if I could take Skadaboo in the late third or the early fourth or something like that, and I can get
52:17Tyrone Tracy in the late 10th, 11th, 12th, something like that, I have no problem at all with that.
52:23I think that's a perfectly acceptable way to build.
52:26And a little note from our friend Big Steve, Fantasy Sopranos.
52:30In the NFFC, Neighbors has been dropping into the fourth on a few recent drafts.
52:34So I know with as yellow sticker crazy as they are at the NFFC, when you see him dropping into the fourth, that definitely means something.
52:42He's been going in the middle eight fourth, I think, on FFPC.
52:46So he's definitely continuing to drop. All right. There's for sure one other team that I want to hit here.
52:52Before we let you go, the Philadelphia Eagles. I was doing a show last night with Bradley.
52:58We taped Stack Hunters. And we were talking about players we felt like that were mispriced or that people were hedging too much on.
53:05And I brought up Makai Lemon. And I said, I think he's definitely somebody that could definitely outperform his ADP.
53:11And Bradley was pushing back. He's like, I don't think the pie is big enough for him to really outperform ADP.
53:18And we had a pretty good discussion on it.
53:21But I'm curious on your thoughts here, Theo. Do you think the passing pie is big enough to support anybody past Devontae and Godert?
53:28Or can Devontae even hold up to Alpha Roll at his size?
53:32What are the pathways for Lemon here to break his ADP?
53:36I think that you brought up a number of them.
53:39I think that if you look at what they're doing where they draft Makai Lemon and then they draft Eli Stowers in the first and second round.
53:47And they have Sean Mannion as their OC. It's sort of a signal that they want to do things very differently.
53:54And I think having a big disappointing follow-up to the Super Bowl win will do that to you as a franchise.
54:00So they're changing things up here. Makai Lemon is a target earner.
54:04And he's got an unbelievable amount of toughness. And I know that there's like, you know, it's hard to find NFL players
54:11who are not tough that can stick in the NFL.
54:14But Makai Lemon has that Steve Smith to him where he's just a...
54:18It's the kind of guy that NFL coaches gravitate towards because he puts his body on the line.
54:24There's been the comparisons to guys like Cooper Cup, to Amon Ross St.
54:28Brown, to Jackson Smith and Jigba. It's sort of the eye of the beholder guy with Makai Lemon when you watch him on film.
54:35But he just relentlessly goes after the football, will take on defenders.
54:39And he's the kind of player that I think his teammates and coaches will gravitate towards.
54:44So I bet on Makai Lemon as well. Then you look at the cost, Dan, where we love drafting rookie wide receivers.
54:51They've been an edge for us in fantasy football.
54:54And I think we're back to that because drafters were burned so hard two seasons ago on Marvin Harrison Jr.
55:00Where I feel like chasing the upside has burned them a little bit.
55:04And they're like maybe a little more apprehensive. So this year might be really ripe where guys like Carnell Tate, guys like
55:11Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon could all really deliver value.
55:14But with Lemon, we're getting him inside around eight in FFPC.
55:17He's going to be a full-time wide receiver there.
55:20And I understand a little like Bradley I think is very sharp.
55:24But when you look at it, Dallas Goddard's always been sort of a capped ceiling target guy who got there with touchdowns last year.
55:32Obviously a very talented player. But it's hard to see Goddard as a guy who's going to all of a sudden be like 110 target guy.
55:40Then you look at Devonta Smith where I think we're both on Devonta Smith at cost this year.
55:45But he's never averaged more than 15 points per game in any season of his NFL career.
55:51If he steps into the full-on A.J. Brown role in terms of target share, air yard share, first read targets.
55:57Then I think Devonta Smith can go up. But it's probably like a 17 point per game season.
56:02So I start looking at it. And I think Makai Lemon is the best bet to be the number two target on this team.
56:10And if Devonta Smith cannot deliver in that role and we're disappointed by Smith, then it probably means Makai Lemon really crushes his ADP.
56:17So I'm very open-minded to drafting him. I think he's a fun click.
56:22And he's also at a point where if you're wrong on Makai Lemon, it's not going to ruin your draft.
56:28If you were wrong on your eighth round pick, that's not the reason you lost this year.
56:33You lost this year because of other stuff, not because of your bad pick in round eight.
56:38Right. Yeah, I think he makes an ideal, you know, like if he's your fourth wide receiver, you know, then that's the
56:45kind of pick you want to be making. You want to be making a pick that's all upside, you know, that you can feel really, really good about.
56:54And if it doesn't happen, oh, well, no big deal.
56:57You know, if you've been drafting, you know, running back heavy or whatever, and he's your wide receiver, too, I would be very, very nervous about that.
57:06So, you know, I think it just kind of comes to how you're building your teams.
57:11I think he definitely fits into some of those team builds for sure.
57:15I thought an interesting nugget today was, and this is probably just a coach being, you know, throwing out a little bit
57:22of a smoke screen, but how do you feel about, you know, is Zach Charbonnet, could he really come back?
57:28You know, Mike McDonald didn't exactly shut down the idea that Charbonnet could be back week one of the season, but he didn't exactly say he would either.
57:37So what are you thinking about the running back situation there in Seattle?
57:41Jadarian Price at running back 25, is that a value?
57:44Are you even drafting any Charbonnet? Where are you at?
57:47I've been higher on Price than I know you have been kind of throughout the process here, and I still think running back 25 is fine.
57:55It sounds like they have multiple plans for Zach Charbonnet.
57:58This is the Super Bowl champion, so if they're able to sort of backload Charbonnet's return and get him at full health,
58:05I don't think we see him coming back unless he's sort of near full health.
58:10They're not going to, like, rush him there. I don't think he's the edge they need to win NFL games.
58:16I think they can win NFL games with Jadarian Price.
58:19But I think you have to start mixing in a little bit of Charbonnet if you've been fading him, because if he
58:26does come back, it's probably going to be Price in the Walker role and Charbonnet in the Charbonnet role.
58:32And depending on how Jadarian Price does at the beginning of the season, is that a Walker role minus 10% of the touches?
58:39It could be. So Charbonnet could actually pick up some value as a pass catcher out of the backfield if he's fully healthy this year.
58:47We know he's effective around the goal line. We know they trust him as a pass blocker.
58:52But I think regarding Jadarian Price, the fact that George Helani is his biggest competition and not Emmanuel Wilson speaks volumes for Jadarian Price's value.
59:00Like, people want to kind of talk themselves into Helani.
59:03Helani had 22 carries last year. And Jadarian Price, they took in the first round.
59:08This is not – we're not doing rocket science here, Dan.
59:11We're doing fantasy football. Like, you want that first-round guy who can run really fast ahead of the guy that they trust as a pass blocker.
59:19So I think more likely than not, it's Price.
59:22And Price is probably running as, like, a top 18 running back scorer for the first 8 to 10 weeks of the year.
59:29And then if Charbonnet comes back, that number is going to regress.
59:33And it's going to probably be a little bit frustrating.
59:36So I'm open-minded to Charbonnet, especially in best ball formats, but also in managed where – the one annoying thing I'll say
59:43is, and if you're an FFPC, NFFC drafter, you know this one.
59:47If you're active on the waiver wire, it's very annoying to carry injured players for this many weeks.
59:53When you run into the bye weeks, you are going to pull your hair out, potentially, if it's Charbonnet.
59:59Like, if there's scenarios where we think Charbonnet comes back week 6, and then that number keeps getting pushed back and pushed
60:05back and pushed back, and all of a sudden you're holding them until week 10, do you miss out on adding other running backs from the waiver wire?
60:14That's something that matters if you're a high-volume drafter.
60:17So all those things kind of jump into mind, but do I want exposure to this running game?
60:23Absolutely. I think this offense is going to score a lot of points this year.
60:27They had some youth on the offensive line that's a year older.
60:31It's Darnold year two. I know we lose Clint Kubiak, but I don't think the ship is going to sink here in Seattle.
60:38I think that they're still going to be a very, very good football team.
60:43Yeah, I'm right there with you on a lot of that.
60:46I think Price is developmental as a weapon in the passing game, both in his blocking and as being a receiver.
60:53So I do see where the Holani people are coming from, but I'm just not sure that Holani is that guy.
60:59I think that might be Emmanuel Wilson. And it's a little bit of, hey, Holani's been with the team.
61:05We're going to give him the deference. We're going to let him take the first reps here, and we're going to let
61:12Emmanuel Wilson kind of earn his way up the depth chart.
61:15I think it's way too early to be making any sort of pronouncements about what's happening between Holani and Wilson.
61:22It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
61:25And, you know, as far as Theo, when we're talking about Zach Charbonnet, if I'm talking a managed league where I have
61:32access to waivers, I'm probably not drafting Charbonnet, just because I feel like there's a pretty good chance of exactly what you're talking about happens.
61:40And, you know, whichever team has him starts getting in a jam on waivers, and eventually there's going to come a point
61:46where they're like, I just can't hold this guy, you know.
61:50And then he gets dropped, and now I've got my shot at him if I want him, and I haven't had to pay that holding cost.
61:58Somebody else did that for, you know, four, five, six, seven weeks.
62:02So I'm just not sure that Charbonnet can give me enough to make it worth holding him all that time.
62:08Now, if we were talking about, you know, this was, you know, a Saquon Barkley or somebody like that, you know, that would be a completely different story.
62:17I'd, you know, I'd hold Barkley through thick and thin.
62:20But Charbonnet, don't know if I can do that.
62:23Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. So one last one here.
62:26What do you think about the Tennessee Titans? I think they're kind of a fascinating offense.
62:31I think they might be poised to improve a lot.
62:34I know you're in on Carnell Tate at cost.
62:37You'd probably be in on Carnell Tate two rounds earlier than what he's going.
62:41And you are, as far as I know, one of the bigger Carnell Tate stands out there.
62:46And I'm definitely hopping on board as well. I was a little bit slower to get on the bus.
62:52But I've gotten there, Theo. I've gotten there. Yeah, it's hard to, it's hard to, there's room on the bus if you're not there.
63:00Carnell Tate was such an easy click for a long portion of like early drafts.
63:05But Dan, you're starting to see like, I know there was a draft that, there was the live FFPC main event.
63:11I went on with those guys this past Sunday.
63:14And Cardinal Tate went at like the 408. And then I know our friend Andrew Schellenberg also shared his slow main event draft board.
63:22And I think Tate went somewhere in that 408 to 4010 range.
63:25So you're starting to see drafters saying, I'm going to draft him.
63:29I don't care if I have to reach. Where it was a lot easier click when he was going inside of round six.
63:36And you were getting him at like the 5-6 turn.
63:39So it's a significant ADP breakthrough for him. But I think you get, you look at sort of the track record with
63:46Brian Dable fast tracking these high pedigree wide receivers that are on their first year with the team.
63:52You saw with Malik Neighbors. And Malik Neighbors was a better prospect than Carnell Tate.
63:57But draft capital wise, almost identical. So we saw with Malik Neighbors, his rookie year finishes as a wide receiver one.
64:03Outstanding in every metric, target share, air yard share, first read rate.
64:07Then you look at what he did with Stephon Diggs back in Buffalo.
64:11Where Diggs was a sixth round pick in NFFC.
64:14Was one of the best values you could have had in NFFC.
64:17Like maybe the last 10 years of the wide receiver position.
64:21Besides like the Cooper Cup year, the Debo Samuel year.
64:24But Diggs was like a sixth round pick that finished as the wide receiver three overall.
64:29Or wide receiver two that year. Challenge for wide receiver one overall numbers.
64:33So Dables fast track guys and featured them in multiple years.
64:37And why can't it be Carnell Tate? The vibes are there.
64:40Cam Ward has said all the right things about him.
64:43And you're hearing the beat reporters saying this guy kind of looks flawless.
64:47Best wide receiver we've had since A.J. Brown. I think if you don't believe in Carnell Tate, then Wandel becomes interesting.
64:54Because he's a target earner. And he's got the ability to sort of, can he give you wide receiver three in flex weeks?
65:01He's had 140 targets in back-to-back years. I think that number goes down.
65:05The only way that number sort of stays at 140 is if Tate is not as good as we think he is.
65:12But I'm with you. This offense is a source of value.
65:15And then you look at sort of Pollard's had four straight years with 1,000 rushing yards.
65:20And he just sort of sits there at a value in every single draft.
65:25No one's excited about drafting him. I know like Nicholas Singleton and him were side-by-side in like Dynasty startups.
65:31But I think Pollard, if you're looking for like an innings eater, a source of like super cheap running back two or
65:38flex value, he'll give you that for the beginning of the year.
65:41And even guys like Gunnar Helm are kind of interesting.
65:44I think this offense, it's so cheap to get pieces of that there's a chance that they could all sort of deliver.
65:51Yeah, I really like that take. And Steve G., Fantasy Sispranos, points out Cam Ward.
65:56You know, also it's on the upside this year.
65:59You know, if you're buying into all those other pieces, you probably want to be buying into Ward as well.
66:05I have a ton of Ward on Underdog where Ward was like the cheap, you can build three quarterback builds in best
66:12ball with Cam Ward as like your QB2 or QB3.
66:15So you could have taken a high-profile quarterback, just sat there, and then took Cam Ward and Daniel Jones over and over
66:22and over again, or Malik Willis before the ADP rise.
66:25It was like a very cheap source. I do think Ward will kind of tick up a little bit throughout the summer in best ball value.
66:33But yeah, I'm with Steve on that one. Ward, I mean, the tape coming out of Miami was just awesome.
66:39And he was in a horrible situation last year that got a lot better, not only with the play caller, but look
66:46at what they've done the last year. It's like Chim D.K., they'll mix him in as a weapon.
66:52Elik Iamaner had like 90 targets last year. However, Calvin Ridley's healthy.
66:56And then they go and they sign one of the most expensive free agent-wide receivers they could in Wandel.
67:02And then they double down with Carnell Tate. But really, it's getting Dable.
67:06We saw what Dable was able to do with Daniel Jones.
67:09Certainly Cam Ward is not Josh Allen. That's sort of a poor comparison.
67:13I think I could be the offensive coordinator for Josh Allen and get a ton of fantasy scoring out of him.
67:20But Dable certainly maximized Daniel Jones. That was Daniel Jones was like down in the dumps.
67:25And then Daniel Jones delivered like a top eight scoring season.
67:28So you wonder about Cam Ward. Is he more of an opportunistic scrambler where he's not unathletic, but he's never a guy who's put up big rushing yards?
67:37But does Dable sort of untap that? I think if Steve is right, I think it's Cam Ward has to run a
67:44little bit to kind of justify that top 12 prediction.
67:47Yeah, I think Ward is starting to learn that he needs to use his legs a little bit more.
67:53I think he was starting to pick up on that at the end of last year.
67:58And it sounds like Dable is going to lean into that.
68:01And Cam Ward's offseason conditioning, he was taking that into account as well that he wanted to be able to run a
68:08little bit more, be able to take a little bit more punishment if need be.
68:13So, you know, I think that it really wheels up for him there.
68:17And I think with all these parts of the offense, you know, we're talking about, hey, we're bullish on this, you know, and everything's really cheap.
68:25You know, I go back to Tony Pollard. I think he's just way too cheap because I think he's clearly the best running back on this team.
68:34I mean, I think Spears is, you know, he's a good running back, but he's a little bit injury prone.
68:40Singleton, we don't know that much about. I don't think they're going to be, you know, looking to rush him into the lineup.
68:47I think they've probably got him as a little bit more of a developmental player.
68:52And I really think Tony Pollard, you know, if this offense can sustain drives better, you know, he's going to be on the field more often.
69:00He's going to get more touches. I think everything's going to work together.
69:04You know, he's going off, you know, in the low 30s, you know, like running back 30, 31, 32, something like that.
69:11And just a real value to me. So love that pick there.
69:15All right. Well, we are even just a little bit over an hour.
69:19So I think we'll probably cut it off here.
69:21I was hoping we might be able to get a chance to go through our main event, but we're only halfway through that.
69:29Let's run it back, Dan. Let's do a main event review.
69:32I'm down to do it. But yeah, let's do it either on my show or your show.
69:37So I can't wait to do that one. Hopefully we keep running pure in round 11 and round 12 and we still want to talk about it.
69:46Yes, exactly. If this show never happens, you know things went sideways real fast.
69:50That's right. That's right. I don't see that happening, though.
69:53But anyway, we appreciate everybody coming along here. That's going to do it for this week's episode of The Dominator.
70:00Please don't forget to hit the like button on YouTube.
70:03Subscribe on the Player Profiler channel if you haven't already.
70:06And next week I'm going to be coming in hot with a guy who's been around on Twitter for a while, hasn't
70:13really been in the podcasting world too much, best ball maven Sean Mitchell.
70:17If you're on X, it's hard to miss him.
70:20So I wanted to get him on for a deeper dive into his best ball strategies and just kind of give him
70:26a chance to express himself in a little bit more than 140 to 180 characters.
70:31So we appreciate you all coming on and hanging with us today.
70:35We'll see you next week. Until then, go dominate your drafts.
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71:49That's how your information lands in the hands of scammers, spammers, even stalkers.
71:53It's why you get endless robocalls and why ads seem to follow you everywhere.
71:58That's where Aura comes in. Aura actively removes your data from broker sites and keeps it off.
72:03They also instantly alert you if your information shows up in a breach or on the dark web.
72:09But Aura goes beyond data protection. With one app, you get a VPN, antivirus, password manager, spam call protection, dark web monitoring,
72:16and even up to $5 million in identity theft insurance, all backed by 24-7 U.S.-based fraud support.
72:21Other companies might sell just credit monitoring or just a VPN.
72:24Again, Aura gives you all of it, together, at the same price competitors charge for just one service.
72:30Start your free trial today at aura.com slash remove.
72:33Protect yourself now at aura.com slash remove.

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