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0:40TNCs apply. In-app only. All right, welcome everybody to the very first episode of the Dominator Podcast.
0:46I'm your host and your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson.
0:48You can find me on X at OverhypedSleeper. Just dropped the final E from Sleeper.
0:53And I just wanted to kind of give you a little bit of a history of the show.
0:59This was a show that's been around Player Profiler for a while.
1:03Billy Muzio started it, I believe. And Josh Clarky has also been running the show and now it's my turn.
1:09So what I decided to do, I talked to Matt a few weeks back about starting another podcast.
1:14I wanted something that was a little bit more like the old goat district for those of you who remember that.
1:21That was a fun show. We had weekly guests who really, I thought, represented the very best of fantasy football.
1:27We had the best analysts, the best high stakes players, best high volume players.
1:32And we also, from time to time, brought on some newer voices that we felt like deserved a wider audience.
1:38So it was a lot of fun. Our goal, though, is to really help you dominate.
1:43Whether you're talking about bringing home a six or seven figure contest prize, whether you're talking about playing high stakes games for
1:50profit, or just winning your home or office league, that's what we're here to do is to help you out and make
1:57it possible for you to have an easier time winning those leagues.
2:00And so over the course of episodes, we might talk dynasty.
2:04We might talk best ball. We might talk redraft managed leagues.
2:07We'll definitely talk contest leagues. So no matter what your format is, we're going to have something for you.
2:13We want to make this show a lot of fun.
2:16And for those of you who are familiar with the Fantasy Empire, don't worry.
2:21That show is going to continue on as a separate entity with me still hosting and all the guys with me as well.
2:28So that's going to be a lot of fun.
2:31We'll probably be starting that up in about a month or so.
2:34But right now, running a guest-based show is something I've always wanted to get back to since the goat district kind of dissolved.
2:42And so we're doing it. And speaking of the goat district, I felt it was only fitting that my first guest traces his roots back to that show.
2:50And I tell you, it didn't take me long to realize we had found ourselves a real diamond in the rough.
2:57You know, he has gone on to much bigger and better things.
3:01But without further introduction, I'm bringing you the man who needs no introduction.
3:05Welcome, Theo. Yeah, thanks for having me on, Dan.
3:08I figured we should get on the mic and talk fantasy since we talk fantasy every single day this time of year.
3:15And I'm really stoked to see that you're running this podcast feed.
3:18Billy crushed it. Josh Larky did a great job with it.
3:22I know you're going to take it to even bigger and better heights.
3:26So yeah, man, stoked to chop it up with you today.
3:29We're in a main event. So we're talking like every couple of hours, kind of looking at this board, doing this nice slow FFPC main event.
3:37So yeah, anybody who doesn't know, Dan and I, we split teams every single year.
3:42We get together in Vegas every single year. Shout out to Andrew Schellenberg as well.
3:47And yeah, I got my podcasting start with Dan and JD in the goat district.
3:51So this sort of comes all full circle. Yeah, I love it.
3:55Love it. And, you know, there was no doubt in my mind when I decided, OK, I'm going to run this podcast.
4:02I was like, OK, Theo's got to be the first guest.
4:05You know, JD is going to make it on here as well.
4:09But he's just kind of in the middle of a move to Portugal.
4:13So wishing him good luck. And, you know, that's a it's a big, big change.
4:18But he's he's still excited about fantasy football as well.
4:21And what do you what do you say, Theo?
4:24Is it going to be Nixon five here? I mean, what a game last night, huh?
4:29It's over. It's Nixon five. Anybody watched it's it's going to be hard for a young team like San Antonio to bounce back after a meltdown like that.
4:38It was pandemonium in my house. My nine year old stayed up till the bitter end.
4:43His brother was seven, fell asleep and my daughter fell asleep.
4:46But my wife and my nine year old and I, we were just going nuts at the end.
4:52So it was it was it was it was quiet?
4:55Was it the quiet sort of nuts because you had two sleeping kids?
4:59No, like, yeah, you know, no, not not quite.
5:02Not quiet at all with him. They slept through it, though.
5:05He didn't wake them up, thankfully. But I mean, we weren't the only ones.
5:10It was it was if you're a Knicks fan, this was incredible.
5:13If you're a Spurs fan, it's about as bad as it gets.
5:17But the game itself, you don't usually see that.
5:20It's sort of the NBA equivalent to New England, Atlanta Super Bowl.
5:24I guess we could call that. But an all time comeback in sports.
5:28It was absolutely electric. So, yeah, it's over. It's over, Dan.
5:31Yeah, it certainly seems like it. And I mean, you know, Wimbaniya, he's got he's got one more flagrant to give and he's he's out for a game.
5:40That's that's going to be. Yeah, that's going to make it really hard on him.
5:45But it's a tough one. It's tough. Yeah, for sure.
5:48So let's talk a little bit about minicamp. And I found it kind of funny because Theo's show this morning, he he was talking all about minicamp.
5:56It's like, wow, that's that's cool because that's exactly what we're doing here.
6:00So Theo should be well practiced for this and I'll do my best to keep up with him.
6:06But, you know, right now, minicamp is kind of the thing that's going on.
6:10And this is sort of the last hurrah for a little while.
6:14Once minicamps are over, it's a little bit of a fantasy news desert for a while because everything sort of shuts down.
6:21Players kind of take those last vacations, you know, to wherever it is that they want to go or do whatever rehab they need to do.
6:29And we don't really start getting a lot of hard news again until training camp.
6:34So, you know, unless they're making the police blotter or something, we're just not going to hear a lot from from players or about players.
6:42It'll mostly just be fluff pieces that we can sort of safely ignore that, you know, they're not going to be worth a whole lot.
6:49But let's deal. Let's let's drive into some of the more interesting situations and just kind of we'll go through it and
6:56start talking about a few different teams. I want to start out with Baltimore, you know, how how are you feeling about the team in Baltimore?
7:04I mean, obviously, Zay Flowers is somebody that everybody seems to be on right now.
7:09But do you see Mark Andrews as being a value pick as tight end 14?
7:14It's interesting because I think that we talk ourselves into to Mandrews because of the history with Lamar Jackson.
7:20Maybe it's the you know, sort of the Tony Pollard corollary where it's going to be slow for him to come back.
7:27And now you're going to see him a little bit healthier than we saw last year.
7:32I can get into Mark Andrews as a value pick.
7:35I don't think he's a guy who's going to wreck leagues, but I believe it's tight end 14 right now in places like FFPC and NFFC.
7:43I think he'll be about that and a chance to beat that ADP with touchdowns.
7:47I think touchdown scoring is going to be sort of the driver for Mandrews at this at this day and age.
7:54But I do think there's been some promising talk about what Declan Doyle wants to do in terms of making them into a really fast paced offense.
8:02And Dan, we've talked about this like a lot of it was a flowers is Baltimore has been like bottom of the barrel in terms of pass attempts.
8:11Maybe with Declan Doyle, they're slightly more balanced, even being like the 20th ranked in terms of pass volume or 25th in
8:18terms of pass volume adds extra opportunities for Lamar Jackson and for Zay Flowers.
8:23So I think we'll see that. And I have this like kind of vibe with Declan Doyle that this is like a
8:29smartest man in the room type vibe where he gets this coordinator job at like 29, 30 years old.
8:35He seems like he's fast tracked for being an NFL head coach.
8:39And I think that Baltimore offense bounces back in a major way.
8:43So I think Mandrews, I would say I'm I'm neutral on.
8:46I'm definitely open minded to drafting him. I think I believe you took him in the the hard way draft that we drafted against each other.
8:54Was that your Mandrews team? No, no, I didn't get Mandrews there.
8:58I did a Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard. Yeah. And Arande Gadsden.
9:02I did. I was at the turn and took those two basically back to back.
9:06But yeah, I'm with you on on Mandrews. I think that he's you know, he's probably got to be an answer here.
9:13And if he's not, I mean, if you if you can't talk yourself into Mandrews, then I think you need to ask
9:20yourself, what other receiver on this team can you talk yourself into?
9:24Because you're probably going to need to. You know, it's not going to be just Zay Flowers and nobody else.
9:30It's, you know, do you need to look at Rashad Bateman?
9:33Do you need to be looking at one of the rookies?
9:37You know, I think that somebody else is going to step up here.
9:41I think Mark Andrews is the most likely possibility.
9:44And so, yeah, I see a decent bounce back.
9:47I think he can finish, you know, inside the top 10 at tight end.
9:51I don't expect him to be, you know, top five or six or anything like that.
9:56But I'm with you. I think he's you know, you got to have him or you got to find somebody else.
10:03What about in Buffalo? Let's let's stick with the tight ends here.
10:06What are we doing with Dalton Kincaid? Who's going off at tight end 12?
10:11You think he's a better and best ball pick or can you can you get behind him in managed leagues too?
10:17Well, Kincaid's been saying, you know, how healthy he feels.
10:20This is the healthiest he's felt since he was in the NFL.
10:24He's been a player that I think there's a lot of like scorn drafters with.
10:29So you're going to get that. I'm not drafting Dalton Kincaid again.
10:33I've heard this story type every year. It's been two really disappointing years in a row in terms of him returning value at ADP.
10:40But you look back at what he was able to do in terms of like being a target earner his rookie year.
10:47I think we get back to those sort of numbers.
10:50I think a lot of it with Kincaid is how much do we are we into DJ more if we think DJ
10:57more is like this screaming value and he's going to crush his ADP and he's going to be this massive target earner.
11:04And maybe DJ more is like a 25 26 percent target share guy.
11:08Then I could see sort of fading Kincaid. But if you're on the DJ more is like a 21 percent target share
11:15type and probably is does just enough but doesn't really crush it.
11:19Then I think I'm open minded to Kincaid. I do see the better in best ball argument because you're Josh Allen's like
11:25in his own little mini tier, but it's not like cost prohibitive to taking some Josh Allen exposure.
11:31So you're looking to get correlation with him. Do you cram in a DJ more early or do you wait and add a Kincaid?
11:39I think I'm maybe a little more open minded adding Kincaid.
11:42That being said, I think if you're stuck in a redraft league, I know like we considered Kincaid in our main event.
11:49We pivoted to it in another direction. But when you're getting down into like the ninth round, tenth round in FFPC leagues,
11:56it sort of makes sense to mix in, you know, a player with that sort of pedigree experience in the offense.
12:02And it feels like he's a little bit of like a kind of a post type sleeper type where everybody's just sort
12:09of viewing him as a structural pick. But I think he's got a better pathway to get a ceiling outcome than like a guy like a Mark Andrews.
12:18Yeah, I totally agree with that because, I mean, when they've used him, he has been a strong performer for the team.
12:25You know, the problem is he's bounced around the, you know, 35, 45 percent route rate.
12:30And that's even with that, you know, when he's been up over 40 percent on routes, he's had some really, really good games.
12:37You know, you can just only imagine if they had him up, you know, 60, 70 percent of routes, what kind of games he might be capable of.
12:46But the way that they run their offense, I don't think he's ever going to get to a huge, you know, like
12:53he's not going to be a top tight end as far as routes run or anything like that.
12:58He's going to be a guy that they put in there.
13:02But when they put him in there, there's a very good chance that he's, you know, a first read target.
13:08And so I think that with Kincaid, if you can bet on that his knee is in better shape, then I think
13:15he's a decent bet to make because of the fact that they'll probably have him out there running more in that 40
13:22to 50 to 60 percent route range instead of down in the 20 to 30 percent route range when which he's had
13:29on those times where he suited up, but clearly hasn't been totally healthy.
13:33What do you what do you think about him in Dynasty, Theo?
13:36I have a Dalton Kincaid exposure in Dynasty. Again, I think he's a guy that is a cheap source of a long
13:43term starting tight end who's attached to Josh Allen.
13:46Would I like him if he ends up going to about half the teams in the NFL as much as I like him attached to Josh Allen?
13:55Probably not as much. But I do think that when you see these guys who have this sort of draft capital pedigree,
14:01they sort of stay relevant in the NFL for years and years.
14:05So even if he did have to move on, I think there'd be a number of teams interested in adding Kincaid.
14:12This is a big year for him for sure.
14:15But I think he's got some insulation. He's not a guy that you need to like steam up in the Dynasty rankings,
14:21but I think sort of makes sense about where he's at.
14:25I'd say his redraft and his Dynasty value is somewhat similar, probably in the high end tight end two, low end tight end one range.
14:33If you're bullish, right around tight end 12. If you're bearish, probably around tight end 15.
14:38But you really can't justify pushing Kincaid lower than that.
14:41Yeah, I think that's fair to say. And it sounds to me like you're maybe a little bit lukewarm on Moore there as well.
14:48Do you DJ more? Do you see him? I get the I get the appeal of DJ more, and I certainly think
14:55this is a bounce back season for him. But I was just a little bit surprised.
15:00Like it's more of like an opportunity cost of like the guys he's going around where I feel like Dan, we would
15:07have been maybe more people would have punished him more for the season that he had last year.
15:13If we were drafting a couple years ago. But people are like more willing to kind of forget what just happened and chase the upside outcome.
15:21So I get it. DJ Moore was a wide receiver one in 2024.
15:25It's not like too long ago. But last year we saw really some troubling signs.
15:30He's a little bit older. And I would be way more open to drafting him if we were able to get him inside of like the sixth round.
15:38But the problem is you're seeing him like living inside of round five in FFPC leagues.
15:43And when you're looking at the guys going right next to him, I'd prefer Terry McLaurin.
15:48I'd prefer Jalen Waddle. So I'm already liking the two wide receivers going directly next to him.
15:54And then he's in that like range where there's some kind of dead zone running backs that might make sense.
16:00So it's just for me, it's just been a hard click.
16:03And it's even higher opportunity cost to draft him.
16:06Like in DraftKings best ball where I've been playing mostly underdog.
16:10But I think I'm going to get some exposure in DraftKings.
16:13He's been going in the fourth round. So you're using a fourth round pick on him.
16:18So like I don't hate DJ Moore, but I hate the ADP cost that I have to pay right now.
16:24Yeah, I'm with you. I'm having a hard time clicking his name because it seems like there's always somebody more appealing that's available.
16:32So, you know, just to get, you know, a little bit more exposure, I'm probably going to need to start clicking that
16:38name at least a couple of times. But yeah, it's just not a fun click for me.
16:44Anybody else in this passing offense that you have any interest in?
16:48Khalil Shakir? Or is that just pretty much like, you know, high floor or low ceiling?
16:53Not interested? I think if you're in a deep dynasty format, I have interest in some Skylar Bell.
16:58But it has to be a pretty deep dynasty format.
17:01I mean, I really think it's probably going to be pretty consolidated offense like it usually is.
17:07There's going to be weeks where guys like Khalil Shakir will deliver.
17:10But good luck trying to figure out which ones they are.
17:14And it's really a Josh Allen, James Cook. That's kind of the way I want to get exposure to Buffalo.
17:20I think both of them are priced right. James Cook, you have to pay a first round pick for.
17:26I think if the Alvin Kamara does get traded to Buffalo, like there's some rumblings about, maybe we'll start seeing James Cook
17:33at like the 201, 202 a little more. You've seen that in some of these main events.
17:38But we've also seen him go at like the 107, 108.
17:42So I think James Cook is appropriately priced. We've gotten this great discount on him for two years in a row.
17:48And now there's this like huge price correction. So I don't know.
17:52I think Buffalo, we know they're going to score a lot of points.
17:56But if you want like the cleanest outcome, guys, it's just take Josh Allen, take James Cook.
18:01And then if your league fades DJ Moore a little bit, maybe he goes a little later by the time.
18:08I don't see how he's going to go later, Dan.
18:11It feels like he's kind of his ADP is pretty much stuck.
18:14But if he does fall, I guess I'd be open-minded to it, at least having some DJ Moore, Josh Allen correlation.
18:21I actually have a good amount of DJ Moore in Dynasty.
18:24The Dynasty price tag for him is cheaper. The redraft cost is just so high.
18:29So I guess if he has a great year, I'll profit off of it in Dynasty.
18:34But redraft, I don't think he's going to kill me.
18:37That's the way it's done. You've got to have that exposure across different formats.
18:42So that, you know, like if you're totally out in one format, you might be in another and you can profit there.
18:49Love how you're doing that, Theo. All right, we're going to take a quick break.
18:53We will be right back. You may draft a great team in fantasy football, but if those players get hurt, you're toast.
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20:12So, Theo, let's move on to Carolina. I think kind of an interesting passing offense.
20:17Sort of low volume here. So, I'm curious. How do you feel about Tech McMillan in this offense?
20:22Are you taking him at ADP? Are you concerned about his pass volume?
20:26It sounds like his injury might be a non-factor.
20:29He was practicing today. So, you know, maybe that's not a big deal.
20:33But what do you think about Tech McMillan in that offense?
20:37I mean, the two of us were kind of all over Tech McMillan as a talent.
20:42I know last year we both were kind of bullish on him coming to Carolina.
20:46I think that he's like an alpha wide receiver in a situation where he might fail to deliver.
20:52Tight end 16 overall in FFPC main events. And I understand it because it's like the unknown upside outcome.
20:58It's a really good profile. It's a guy with top 10 NFL draft capital.
21:02And he's the clear-cut wide receiver one on his team.
21:06And it would usually be like the kind of profile that I would gravitate towards.
21:10And like chase that unknown upside. Chase wide receiver heavy builds.
21:14But I don't know. I haven't been clicking the button.
21:17Again, it's a very expensive price tag. And when I look at, I can draft Emeka Egbuka right there next to Tederoa McMillan.
21:24I'm going Egbuka every single time. And then I'm able to get guys like Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers behind Tederoa McMillan.
21:31I actually think that the upside outcome for Zay Flowers might be higher than McMillan this year.
21:36And I don't have concerns about that offense scoring points.
21:39And I don't have quarterback concerns. So for me, it's sort of an anti-Brice Young take.
21:44I believe in Dave Canales. I think they're going to try to run things through McMillan.
21:49But the chances that he crushes that wide receiver 16 price tag.
21:53Like I think there's a chance that Egbuka could be a wide receiver 15 in ADP and be like wide receiver 6 on the year.
22:01I think Zay Flowers could be a top 6, 7 wide receiver on the year.
22:05I don't see a scenario where McMillan just absolutely crushes it and rises tides and is like wide receiver 5 this year.
22:12And you regret passing on him. So it's another situation where it's a I love the talent, love the player, don't like the ADP.
22:20It is interesting the weight gain where it sounds like McMillan last year tried to be really light and was kind of
22:26uncomfortable playing at such a light weight. He says he put on 17 pounds of muscle.
22:31The guy looks incredibly rocked up. You worry about that maybe a little bit.
22:36But I'm sort of open-minded to that. That really has nothing to do with the fade.
22:41I just thought it was an interesting kind of thing we've learned early in the mandatory minicamps.
22:46Yeah, I was kind of surprised to see that as well.
22:50That seems like for a guy his size, that's a huge amount of weight to gain.
22:55And it looks good on him. There's no question about that.
22:58But I'm with you. I think if McMillan was going about a round later, if he was going around where Devontae Adams is going, Jalen Waddell, T.
23:07Higgins, kind of in that range, I would be much more able to be clicking that button.
23:12But I'm having a really hard time. Because the guys you mentioned, I think they definitely, I'm taking any of them before McMillan.
23:19I'm taking Terry McLaurin before him. And so by the time I'm starting to look at him, he's long gone in my drafts.
23:26Yeah, I'm with you. How about Chicago? You concerned about Odunze's foot?
23:30I was always sort of off of Roma-Dunze this year at cost.
23:34I think we'll be interested to see if the gap between him and Burden continues to grow and grow and grow.
23:40I might be open-minded to Odunze if the ADP comes down a little bit more.
23:45But I think that, for me, Colston Loveland is the guy that I think both of us have been extremely bullish on.
23:52We just drafted him in the main event that we're doing in the second round.
23:57I drafted him in a 350 that I did with Scott Barrett in the second round over at FFPC.
24:02And then I just drafted him in a triflex startup with Scott Barrett in the second round.
24:08So I'm all over Loveland. I think Loveland has a chance to lead this team in targets.
24:13So, like, that's one. Like, Odunze, there's a chance he's the number three target earner in this offense.
24:19Number three target earners are a bad bet to make.
24:22If he ends up leading the team in targets, he could end up being a real value where I think he's going to fall to.
24:30But I don't love hearing about foot problems this time of the year.
24:34I know Allen Robinson talked about how he had similar issues to this.
24:38And this was when you saw, like, a quick downfall of Allen Robinson's career with that foot problem.
24:43So I don't love it. There's been other doctors who say that kind of Odunze's comments were sort of misconstrued.
24:50And he's right. And it won't really cause any performance issue.
24:53But it's just a comfort level with kind of dealing with the foot after it.
24:58So I think there's a lot of mixed messages out there.
25:01But end of the day, my bet would be heavy on Loveland.
25:05Want to have some exposure to Burden. He feels like a guy who you don't want to be without.
25:11And then probably Odunze for me is the number three guy on the pecking order.
25:16If he falls into a range that's really fun, then I'll mix some in for sure.
25:21And right now you're seeing him still at, like, that 5-6 turn.
25:24I wonder if we start seeing, like, late 6th, early 7th round exposure if the gap grows a little bit.
25:31But I think probably not. I think he probably settles into the middle of the 6th round.
25:36Yeah, I'm with you there. You know, and JD and I in the Hardway Dynasty League, we made a big move to get Odunze before the rookie draft.
25:45And, you know, I felt pretty good about it at the time.
25:49I got a little bit more queasy when that comment about, you know, he's having to figure out a new normal.
25:55You know, that gives me just sort of that little feeling that you don't love in the pit of your stomach.
26:02So we'll see how that goes. I am with you.
26:05I think that Burden is probably the better chance.
26:08But I don't think it's necessarily cut and dried.
26:10I mean, I could see the situation being where it's like Loveland is sort of continuously getting fed most weeks.
26:17And then it could flip-flop back and forth between, you know, Burden and Odunze on a game-by-game basis.
26:22That's what really scares me is if it's one of those situations where you just can't tell going into the game.
26:29Is this going to be a Burden game or is this going to be an Odunze game?
26:34You know, totally fine for best ball, obviously. But when we're talking about managed leagues and having to put a player in
26:41your starting lineup that you're probably going to be counting on, that's going to be a little bit tougher.
26:47So I think we'll be interested to see how that one develops over the course of training camp and everything.
26:53How about in Cleveland? Some news out of Cleveland.
26:56It seems like there might be a little bit more of a quarterback controversy than we thought originally.
27:02Shador Sanders and Deshaun Watson battling it out a little bit.
27:05But then I think even more interesting, we've got Concepcion, Boston, and Fannin all kind of gunning for targets.
27:11And Jerry Judy sitting out today. What's your read on the Cleveland receiver room?
27:15And are you backing any horses there? It's an interesting one.
27:19I think that there is an argument to make in best ball right now.
27:23If you're a best ball drafter to double-tap Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston, Boston's one of the biggest ADP risers we've seen.
27:30He was like wide receiver 80. Now he's wide receiver 65.
27:34And I feel like he's going to come up into the wide receiver 50 range.
27:38Because the vibes out of Cleveland, there's a lot of beat reporters who are saying he looks like the best scope position player in OTAs.
27:46And now they're saying the same thing again about mandatory minicamp.
27:50Boston was sort of the forgotten man because Casey Concepcion went in the first round.
27:54And I had Casey Concepcion ahead of Denzel Boston.
27:57But I had Denzel Boston projected to be a first round pick in the NFL draft.
28:02It was one of the only first round picks I got wrong there, Dan, this year when I ran pure.
28:08You nailed it. Yeah, nailed it this year. But Denzel Boston, he was an alpha.
28:13He had 20 touchdown grabs the last two years at Washington.
28:16He was like a 25% target share guy. He's an absolute unit.
28:20He's like Drake London size. He's like 6'4", 2'12".
28:23And he's making big plays downfield. Not a burner.
28:26More of a big athletic sort of agile player than like a guy who's going to be a Chris Brazel type and just get behind the defense.
28:34But Boston could end up being a problem. Casey Concepcion, I think, is uber talented.
28:39He also had a big play where I think it was Mary Kay Cabot.
28:43She posted this video and they called offensive pass interference.
28:46But Concepcion looked unbelievable on this play. Just go check it out.
28:50So it's and I think that Cleveland has been drafting incredibly well the last two years.
28:55So I think that they've figured it out. Last year they hit on Judkins.
29:00They hit on Fannin. They hit on several defensive players that look like long-term guys for them.
29:05It seems like this front office knows what they're doing.
29:08And I think that they're going to hit this year again on both of the wide receivers as well as Spencer Fanno.
29:15So I believe in this offense. I think if you're a dynasty manager, get access to all of these guys.
29:21Redraft, it's a more interesting conversation when you're talking about Fannin.
29:25But I do think there's something to be said where Fannin, you know, we're trying to put mental gymnastics on it.
29:31And certainly he was a loser after the NFL draft.
29:34But this guy came into the league and nuked David Njoku like right away.
29:39And David Njoku was super successful for us in fantasy for multiple years.
29:43And Fannin did this as a 21-year-old coming out of the MAAC, where there's usually a ramp-up period.
29:48Even for like all-timers who come out of the MAAC, like Antonio Brown.
29:52Like they usually need a little time to get it going in the NFL.
29:57Fannin did it right away. Led his team in catches.
30:00Led his team in targets. He has incredible yak ability.
30:03He's got a great wingspan. And so I get it.
30:06The pathway for Fannin to become the tight end one overall is probably not there.
30:11But I do think if he starts falling a little bit in ADP because of the love of the rookie wide receivers,
30:18then he makes for a great structural pick. And if you're picking your formats, like FFPC, it might be the hardest decision with Fannin.
30:25But NFFC, underdog, draft kings, I think you can mix in your exposure as sort of like a bet on talent.
30:32And I would say that even with those rookie wide receivers flashing and looking like they're ahead of schedule, Fannin would still
30:39be probably the best bet to lead this team in terms of target share.
30:43I wonder what you think on that one, Dan.
30:46Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting. I think it's going to kind of come down to Fannin and Concepcion are eating off the same plate.
30:54I think Boston is eating off kind of a different plate entirely.
30:58And I love a big X receiver who can just go up and play bully ball.
31:03And that's what Boston looks like. So I think he's a really, really fun pick, especially since he's the cheapest.
31:09But I think in managed leagues, you can probably take Fannin and then take Concepcion several rounds later and just kind of
31:16hedge your bet for a little while and see which one of them turns out to be dominant.
31:22Because the odds are one of them will come out looking pretty good.
31:26I think with Cleveland, it's just going to be a matter of how quickly does this offensive line gel together.
31:32So we might have to be patient with any players from Cleveland that we draft.
31:37You know, we're talking about, you know, either Deshaun Watson coming off a long layoff or Shadur Sanders still being green, a new offensive line.
31:44You know, we got a new head coach, new offense.
31:47You know, there's a lot of newness going on there.
31:51And I agree with you. I think they're on the right track.
31:54I think they've done some incredible drafting. And I think we'll probably see it start to come together as we get through, you know, four, five, six weeks.
32:03I think we'll start seeing what this offense can really look like.
32:07Let's move on to Green Bay. I mean, both of us are buying in on Christian Watson.
32:12But what are you doing with Josh Jacobs after, you know, the arrest and everything else?
32:17I mean, it seems like that's still kind of hanging over him.
32:21You know, we haven't really heard anything more. Are you worried about it?
32:25Are you taking the discount right now? And who do you think his backup is?
32:30I think the backup is Marshawn Lloyd. We heard some positivity coming out about Marshawn Lloyd.
32:35I think if he's healthy, he's the guy there.
32:38They haven't made any, like, big aggressive moves to add additional backs.
32:41So I think maybe there's a little bit of internal optimism that this is something that maybe would affect him in 2027 more so than 2026.
32:49You do worry about, like, the commissioner's exemption list.
32:52I talked about Josh Jacobs as well as, like, Rashi Rice, Malik Nabors, a couple of these guys from a dynasty lens.
32:59Guys who are, like, kind of dangerous players to roster in dynasty based on potential circumstances.
33:04And Josh Jacobs, I made one trade in dynasty where I pivoted off of him for Ramondre Stevenson and a second.
33:11I think that's about the value you can get for him now.
33:14I get the appeal of clicking on that button in redraft, but I'm not seeing him fall to a range where I'm like, I need to take him.
33:23This is the player that's going to win me my league.
33:27I mean, we're seeing now FFPC main event data.
33:29He's what, like the 312 now? So he's come down a full round, but it's not like this massive gap.
33:36He's, like, running back 17. I think the low in main events is probably the 4-8, according to Fantasy Mojo.
33:42So, like, I don't know, Dan. It feels like it's going to be a source of predictable volume.
33:48But Green Bay, I think, is going to be a little bit more pass-happy than I think some people realize.
33:54And I think it's a self-scouting thing where Green Bay lost in really, I would say, demoralizing fashion this year to, like,
34:01their rival, the Chicago Bears in the playoffs, a game that could have gone either way.
34:06And then two seasons ago, they get woodshedded by Philadelphia.
34:09So they've had this Josh Jacobs-centric offense that's been fantastic in the regular season, but has got them literally nowhere in the postseason.
34:16They just gave a fortune to Christian Watson. Last year, they drafted Matthew Golden in round one.
34:21They extended Jaden Reed. And I think we're going to get a little bit more.
34:26And certainly, Tucker Craft, there's a ton of optimism with his injury and him coming back to the field.
34:32So I think you're going to see them lean a little bit more into Jordan Love.
34:37They talked about how they fixed Jordan Love's footwork this offseason.
34:40That was, like, something that they were stressing internally was the footwork for him as a passer.
34:46So it sounds like Jordan Love put in a ton of work this offseason, and I think we're going to see that.
34:53So with Jacobs, you're talking about a 28-year-old back who's had a ton of volume over the years.
34:58And when we say 28 for Jacobs, I believe Jacobs was, like, 20 when he came in the NFL.
35:04He's always been a high-volume guy. So you wonder about the volume catching up with him.
35:09Now you've got the off-the-field stuff. I don't feel he's a guy that I need.
35:14Now, if you're drafting 100 teams and you want to mix in some fourth-round Josh Jacobs, I totally get it.
35:20Unfortunately, pre-NFL draft, I took a good amount of him on an underdog best ball's pre-NFL draft.
35:25So I'm topped out here. I don't feel like I need to double down on this one, Dan.
35:31Yeah, that's sometimes the way it goes. Yeah, I was also in on him on early best ball drafts as well because,
35:38you know, I was looking at the situation. And weirdly enough, I kind of comped him a little bit to James Cook
35:45in that, you know, if Green Bay has a really good offense, which I think they've got a chance to do, and,
35:52you know, Love can distribute the ball and keep the chains moving, all that kind of stuff, you know, I don't know
35:59why Josh Jacobs couldn't do pretty much the same thing that James Cook is doing.
36:03You know, get a bunch of volume on the ground, not as many passes as we'd like.
36:09You know, we'd love to see the target. But, you know, those touchdowns, if he can be up in the, you know,
36:1514 touchdown range, something like that, you know, I think he's definitely going to pay off at his price.
36:21So, you know, he's one that doesn't scare me other than I think, you know, obviously we've got the, you know, the legal situation, which could happen.
36:30You know, I'm not a liar. I'm not going to speculate too much on that.
36:35But I will take the discount when he's there, when he's falling.
36:38You know, if he's getting into the mid to late fourth, he definitely becomes appealing for me.
36:44You know, he was one that I was looking at on our main event.
36:48But we really, we had T. Higgins available, and that was an easy one for me, T.
36:53Higgins over Josh Jacobs. But, you know, if T.
36:56hadn't have been there, I might have been starting to stump a little bit for Josh Jacobs.
37:01And I probably would have had to push you a little bit, it sounds like.
37:06I mean, you could have broken me on that one.
37:09It's always, that fourth round's weird. A lot of guys get dried up.
37:13And then you're looking at, like, Jacobs. You're looking at Malik Nabors with the injury.
37:18There's a lot of, like, guys who are so appealing, but you feel like maybe have a lot of downside risk.
37:25So, we went T. Higgins. We're not too worried about it.
37:28Yeah, exactly. You know, I feel like once you get, like, two, three, four players into the fourth round, it gets a little bit ugly for a while.
37:37You know, they're just players I don't have a lot of confidence in.
37:41You know, not as much as I do the first three rounds.
37:45Like, last year, round three was, you know, what I thought a pretty bad round, even the last half of round two.
37:51This year, I really start feeling squeamish, you know, once we start getting into round four.
37:56Yeah. All right. Man, Jacksonville, there's been a ton of words and ink and everything else spilled on the Jaguars.
38:03You know, I think the takeaways from the mini camps is Trevor Lawrence looks fantastic, and that's probably the best way to
38:10play this offense is just, you know, by Trevor Lawrence.
38:13But we also have, you know, we have Rodriguez, Chris Rodriguez sitting out, and Bashal Tootin has been looking really, really good.
38:20Brian Thomas Jr., it sounds like, has been looking great, and they've really been working on getting the deep ball chemistry between him and Lawrence.
38:27But then you've got Parker Washington, who sits right in, you know, Lawrence's sweet spot.
38:32This is where he prefers to throw the ball.
38:35So, how are you unscrambling the spaghetti bowl here?
38:38I'm open-minded to all four of those guys at cost.
38:41I think that there's a scenario where Trevor Lawrence is an easy click for us.
38:46We actually took him on our main event team.
38:48He came to us in round 10, and we considered him in round 9.
38:53It just sort of speaks volumes to the values you're seeing at the quarterback position, where people don't know where to start quarterback.
39:00It's kind of like, you're always going to have appealing quarterbacks in FFPC, in these drafts, in the 8th round, 9th round, 10th round.
39:07And then there's going to be a couple of good ones in the 11th as well.
39:12But Lawrence, I think, took a big step forward last year.
39:16I think we're going to continue to see that maturation with Liam Cohen.
39:20Liam Cohen did a great job with Baker Mayfield in Tampa, continued to do it with Trevor Lawrence, and I think we'll see it this year.
39:28So, I agree that Trevor Lawrence is the cheapest and maybe the easiest to click on.
39:33But I'm very open-minded to drafting Brian Thomas Jr.
39:36and Parker Washington. I'm open to double-tapping them there, where I think they both can beat their ADP.
39:42On underdog right now, it's wide receiver 32 for BTJ, wide receiver 34 for Parker Washington.
39:47And I put something out on X, where I was speaking positively about Brian Thomas Jr.
39:52The vibes feel great. And I know I had our friend Bradley Stouder, who I think is really sharp with his projections.
39:58You know, he said, you know, the guy's wide receiver 34 in ADP.
40:02I'm projecting him for wide receiver 31. And I think there's going to be a lot of smart people that do projections
40:09who are going to have him right around wide receiver 30, wide receiver 31.
40:14He's not the sort of player that you associate with Trevor Lawrence, like historically.
40:18You think about, like, the Evan Ingrams, the Christian Kirks, those kind of guys.
40:23Parker Washington last year. Guys who can operate in the slot, operate in, like, intermediate routes and around the line of scrimmage.
40:29But BTJ, I think, has a real pathway to beat these projectors by, like, 15%.
40:34And I think maybe 20%. We look at what he did as a rookie.
40:38BTJ's not, like, a theoretical fantasy football asset. He's a player that we already saw have a nearly 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown catch season as a rookie.
40:46First-round pick out of LSU. So there's a lot to like there.
40:50And, Dan, it's like, it's so funny where we talk about guys like DJ Moore, guys like Lad McConkie.
40:56It's like, last year totally didn't matter. We're just going to put you here in ADP.
41:01And with BTJ, there were drafters last year who were talking BTJ versus Amon Ross St.
41:06Brown at the 1-2 turn. And now they don't want to click that button at the 6-7 turn.
41:12So I don't get it. I think mixing in some BTJ makes a lot of sense.
41:17I also think Parker Washington last year, five out of his last seven games, including the NFL playoffs, scored 18 points or more.
41:24He looks locked in. And I think he's going to get a big contract.
41:28So I'm open-minded to both of those guys. And then Basial Tootin inside of round five, I mean, I get the downside arguments.
41:35I get that they wanted a little bit more Chris Rodriguez.
41:39But, I mean, Tootin, the situation reminds me a little bit of Chase Brown, where Chase Brown year two is kind of like Basial Tootin year two.
41:47It was Zach Moss and Chase Brown. It's Chris Rodriguez and Basial Tootin.
41:51And gravitating towards the younger player with a lot more speed and the ability to affect the game in the passing game,
41:58where Chris Rodriguez is sort of a zero there.
42:01Basial Tootin has a ton of outs where he could deliver.
42:04If he's the screen guy in this offense, he's the design target guy, then I think he's going to be really good.
42:11And I think he's also a chance to thrive around the goal line.
42:15And we know he's got the home run hitting ability.
42:19The guy said he's faster now, too, Dan. He said, I've improved on my 40-yard dash time.
42:24So I'm not sure how you do that. But I guess Basial Tootin is like a 4-2-5 now.
42:29So I get it. I mean, the cost is not prohibitive to taking Tootin in the fifth, one of the wide receivers
42:36in the sixth or the seventh, and then taking T-Law inside of round 10 and getting a really well-priced correlation slash stack
42:43to the team, and a team that I think can be top 10 in scoring once again.
42:49Yeah, I'm with you. This is a team that we definitely want pieces of.
42:53And I love the corollary that you pulled between them and the Bengals with Chase Brown and Zach Moss.
42:59I think that's a great one. That's about the perfect example right there.
43:03You know, I just can't really draft Chris Rodriguez because, you know, I'm drafting him at what, you know, running back 45 or something like that.
43:11I'm not even sure what it is. You know, but, and yeah, he could beat that ADP, but what is he going to beat it to?
43:19Is he going to get, you know, oh, he's going to turn into be, what, running back 35?
43:25You know, how much is that helping my team?
43:28Whereas Basial Tootin, if he hits, now we're talking, you know.
43:31So, is there a chance that he does fail, you know, that maybe Rodriguez gets too much work and Basial Tootin ends
43:38up as, you know, running back 30 instead of running back 22?
43:42I think that's possible. But I also think that Basial Tootin could end up, you know, being running back 13, 14, something like that pretty easily.
43:50So, I'm going to take my chances and take my swings on somebody who can give me a really high variance outcome
43:57that can help my teams rather than somebody who gets, if they get their high variance outcome, they're really not helping my team that much.
44:05Yeah, I feel like it's almost, it's funny because I feel like LaQuint Allen might be the more annoying back for Tootin.
44:11Where if Allen is mixed in in the passing game, is that going to be like, why are they giving targets to Allen?
44:19Those four receptions should have gone to Basial Tootin.
44:21But I don't think there's a scenario where we're like, oh man, Chris Rodriguez had 12 rushing touchdowns this year.
44:28I really could have grabbed him everywhere. I feel like he's just this kind of purgatory pick.
44:33I think he makes a little bit of sense to mix in some in best ball, but in redraft, it's a tough click.
44:40Yeah, definitely, definitely. And I'm for sure taking some of Brian Thomas Jr.
44:44and some Parker Washington as well. I mean, you know, Brian Thomas Jr., I think the reason why he's getting punished by
44:51drafters is every, you know, it's very well known that his best stretch of ball came with Mac Jones at quarterback.
44:58And, you know, that's all anybody talks about. Well, that's the only time to play good ball.
45:03But the thing is, you know, I don't think it's that Trevor Lawrence isn't capable of it.
45:08They just haven't done it yet. And last year, Thomas was hurt and that became a problem.
45:14You know, it was like, well, we're just going to go a different way because the offense isn't working going through him.
45:21So they just moved to a different way. So we haven't seen it yet.
45:25And that's why drafters are punishing him. But he's that guy who can give you, you know, I think, you know, a
45:3230 point plus week from time to time if he and Trevor Lawrence have a good connection.
45:37So that's that's what I'm looking for there. Parker Washington is more like, you know, hey, I want to try to get
45:44my, you know, 13 to 18 points, something like that.
45:47And I want to try to do that most weeks.
45:50And and that's very helpful. So it kind of depends on, you know, how my team build is going as to which
45:57one of those I'm more interested in. And they're both going off about the same spot in the in the draft.
46:04So a lot of times, you know, if you're if you're at the right place, you might have your pick of them
46:11and you can pick whichever one fits your build the best.
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47:13Let's move. Oh, for sure. We got we got to talk Cam Scadabo.
47:17Scadabo, actually. You know, with that amazing graphic that we got for the show this week.
47:22I love the Terminator Scadabo mashup there. It was that was a lot of fun.
47:27But what do you what do you think about Scadabo?
47:30I mean, I got to admit, Theo, I was totally off him going into the offseason here.
47:35I was just like, man, that that injury looked bad.
47:38You know, we've seen what happens to running backs who get the tightrope surgery.
47:43He had the tightrope surgery. Plus, you know, he it was a lot more than that.
47:48I was like, I just don't see how this guy can perform, you know, but yet we see him out there sneaking
47:55in reps in 11 on 11s when he's really not supposed to be there.
47:59And, you know, now he's out there with the 11 on 11s and the coaches are happy about it.
48:05He's you know, he's pulling backflips while playing softball, all that kind of stuff.
48:09So what do you what do you what do you see on Scadabo and throw in a little neighbors as well?
48:16Where where's the point where you're you're willing to hit the button on neighbors?
48:20I think neighbors is pretty easy. I think it's probably going to have to get into like Rashi Rice last year range
48:27where I think he's headed in that direction where there's a ton of pessimism on him injury wise.
48:33Will he fall into a range where you're like, OK, I can draft Malik neighbors in the sixth round and I can still put a great team together.
48:42But when you have to sort of click the button in round four, you're really forced to draft more wide receivers structurally.
48:48So you have like fewer outs in terms of like your build.
48:52So Malik neighbors has been one where I think right now be very, very cautious because I think if you want exposure
48:59to neighbors, you should backload your drafts and draft more in like the August 1st area than like the July 1st area
49:06when he becomes a little bit cheaper. Scadabo is is the story is awesome.
49:10And I think, Dan, it's like you usually are like injury pessimistic.
49:14And I think it's probably made you a lot of money money over the years.
49:19But I think that guys are you've seen in the NBA level where there's guys that have been able to bounce back
49:26a lot quicker than maybe they would. We would have thought Jason Tatum this year for the Boston Celtics is a great
49:33example where guys get these huge injuries and then are able to bounce back like five, six months ahead of schedule.
49:39It's absolutely crazy. And I think modern medicine recovery, they're just the advancements we can't even comprehend at this point.
49:45And I think you're seeing it with Scadabo where the guy looks awesome running routes.
49:50He's at mandatory minicamp. The clips are getting out there.
49:53The vibes are fantastic. And I think that his cost is fine.
49:57He's at running back 19. So it's a range where he's in the prototypical like dead zone.
50:02So you're obviously, you know, you're in a range where running backs can sort of bring a great deal of risk.
50:09But with Scadabo, we know that last year he averaged 16 and a half points per game, which was more than Ashton
50:16Gentty, more than Travion Henderson, more than Judkins, more than Hampton, led all rookies in points per game.
50:21Average showed the ability as a pass catcher and was super effective as a runner.
50:26And then you look at New York this year, neighbors slow out the gate.
50:30So there's a chance that Scadabo is the offensive focal point from game one.
50:35And then you look at the improvements that New York made where you have Francis Maui Noah.
50:40They're going to park him inside a guard. Tenth overall pick.
50:44Arguably the best run blocker out of this entire draft class.
50:47I had a huge pedigree player. Then you look at Pat Ricard, the 300-pound fullback who was so effective in Baltimore with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
50:55And then you look at the wide receiver position.
50:58And with no neighbors, they're going to have Malachi Fields like in the slot.
51:03So you're effectively using a three-tight end set. You're going heavy without going heavy.
51:07We're going to have Theo Johnson, Isaiah Likely, and Malachi Fields.
51:10I was in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, and Malachi Fields is bigger than a bunch of these tight ends we're getting excited about.
51:18You put Malachi Fields side-by-side with Justin Jolie, it's not even close.
51:22Malachi Fields is massive. So I think the run game in New York is going to be very effective.
51:28The mobility of Jackson Dart, we've already seen these two play well next to each other.
51:33And if you draft Cam Skadaboo, you understand that you might lose him again.
51:37But for the weeks he's out there, the scoring might be 15 points per game, and you're able to extract that inside of round five.
51:45So I think he's very appealing right now. Love it.
51:48Yeah. And I think with Skadaboo also, you've just got the possibility that you can take, especially in managed league, you can take Tyrone Tracy later.
51:56And the cost on Tracy is not prohibitive at all.
51:59So I'm not a handcuffed guy if you're talking about, hey, I'm going to have to take Bucky Irving and then take
52:06Kenny Gainwell just a couple of rounds later. I don't want to do that.
52:10But if I could take Skadaboo in the late third or the early fourth or something like that, and I can get
52:17Tyrone Tracy in the late 10th, 11th, 12th, something like that, I have no problem at all with that.
52:23I think that's a perfectly acceptable way to build.
52:26And a little note from our friend Big Steve, Fantasy Sopranos.
52:30In the NFFC, Neighbors has been dropping into the fourth on a few recent drafts.
52:34So I know with as yellow sticker crazy as they are at the NFFC, when you see him dropping into the fourth, that definitely means something.
52:42He's been going in the middle eight fourth, I think, on FFPC.
52:46So he's definitely continuing to drop. All right. There's for sure one other team that I want to hit here.
52:52Before we let you go, the Philadelphia Eagles. I was doing a show last night with Bradley.
52:58We taped Stack Hunters. And we were talking about players we felt like that were mispriced or that people were hedging too much on.
53:05And I brought up Makai Lemon. And I said, I think he's definitely somebody that could definitely outperform his ADP.
53:11And Bradley was pushing back. He's like, I don't think the pie is big enough for him to really outperform ADP.
53:18And we had a pretty good discussion on it.
53:21But I'm curious on your thoughts here, Theo. Do you think the passing pie is big enough to support anybody past Devontae and Godert?
53:28Or can Devontae even hold up to Alpha Roll at his size?
53:32What are the pathways for Lemon here to break his ADP?
53:36I think that you brought up a number of them.
53:39I think that if you look at what they're doing where they draft Makai Lemon and then they draft Eli Stowers in the first and second round.
53:47And they have Sean Mannion as their OC. It's sort of a signal that they want to do things very differently.
53:54And I think having a big disappointing follow-up to the Super Bowl win will do that to you as a franchise.
54:00So they're changing things up here. Makai Lemon is a target earner.
54:04And he's got an unbelievable amount of toughness. And I know that there's like, you know, it's hard to find NFL players
54:11who are not tough that can stick in the NFL.
54:14But Makai Lemon has that Steve Smith to him where he's just a...
54:18It's the kind of guy that NFL coaches gravitate towards because he puts his body on the line.
54:24There's been the comparisons to guys like Cooper Cup, to Amon Ross St.
54:28Brown, to Jackson Smith and Jigba. It's sort of the eye of the beholder guy with Makai Lemon when you watch him on film.
54:35But he just relentlessly goes after the football, will take on defenders.
54:39And he's the kind of player that I think his teammates and coaches will gravitate towards.
54:44So I bet on Makai Lemon as well. Then you look at the cost, Dan, where we love drafting rookie wide receivers.
54:51They've been an edge for us in fantasy football.
54:54And I think we're back to that because drafters were burned so hard two seasons ago on Marvin Harrison Jr.
55:00Where I feel like chasing the upside has burned them a little bit.
55:04And they're like maybe a little more apprehensive. So this year might be really ripe where guys like Carnell Tate, guys like
55:11Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon could all really deliver value.
55:14But with Lemon, we're getting him inside around eight in FFPC.
55:17He's going to be a full-time wide receiver there.
55:20And I understand a little like Bradley I think is very sharp.
55:24But when you look at it, Dallas Goddard's always been sort of a capped ceiling target guy who got there with touchdowns last year.
55:32Obviously a very talented player. But it's hard to see Goddard as a guy who's going to all of a sudden be like 110 target guy.
55:40Then you look at Devonta Smith where I think we're both on Devonta Smith at cost this year.
55:45But he's never averaged more than 15 points per game in any season of his NFL career.
55:51If he steps into the full-on A.J. Brown role in terms of target share, air yard share, first read targets.
55:57Then I think Devonta Smith can go up. But it's probably like a 17 point per game season.
56:02So I start looking at it. And I think Makai Lemon is the best bet to be the number two target on this team.
56:10And if Devonta Smith cannot deliver in that role and we're disappointed by Smith, then it probably means Makai Lemon really crushes his ADP.
56:17So I'm very open-minded to drafting him. I think he's a fun click.
56:22And he's also at a point where if you're wrong on Makai Lemon, it's not going to ruin your draft.
56:28If you were wrong on your eighth round pick, that's not the reason you lost this year.
56:33You lost this year because of other stuff, not because of your bad pick in round eight.
56:38Right. Yeah, I think he makes an ideal, you know, like if he's your fourth wide receiver, you know, then that's the
56:45kind of pick you want to be making. You want to be making a pick that's all upside, you know, that you can feel really, really good about.
56:54And if it doesn't happen, oh, well, no big deal.
56:57You know, if you've been drafting, you know, running back heavy or whatever, and he's your wide receiver, too, I would be very, very nervous about that.
57:06So, you know, I think it just kind of comes to how you're building your teams.
57:11I think he definitely fits into some of those team builds for sure.
57:15I thought an interesting nugget today was, and this is probably just a coach being, you know, throwing out a little bit
57:22of a smoke screen, but how do you feel about, you know, is Zach Charbonnet, could he really come back?
57:28You know, Mike McDonald didn't exactly shut down the idea that Charbonnet could be back week one of the season, but he didn't exactly say he would either.
57:37So what are you thinking about the running back situation there in Seattle?
57:41Jadarian Price at running back 25, is that a value?
57:44Are you even drafting any Charbonnet? Where are you at?
57:47I've been higher on Price than I know you have been kind of throughout the process here, and I still think running back 25 is fine.
57:55It sounds like they have multiple plans for Zach Charbonnet.
57:58This is the Super Bowl champion, so if they're able to sort of backload Charbonnet's return and get him at full health,
58:05I don't think we see him coming back unless he's sort of near full health.
58:10They're not going to, like, rush him there. I don't think he's the edge they need to win NFL games.
58:16I think they can win NFL games with Jadarian Price.
58:19But I think you have to start mixing in a little bit of Charbonnet if you've been fading him, because if he
58:26does come back, it's probably going to be Price in the Walker role and Charbonnet in the Charbonnet role.
58:32And depending on how Jadarian Price does at the beginning of the season, is that a Walker role minus 10% of the touches?
58:39It could be. So Charbonnet could actually pick up some value as a pass catcher out of the backfield if he's fully healthy this year.
58:47We know he's effective around the goal line. We know they trust him as a pass blocker.
58:52But I think regarding Jadarian Price, the fact that George Helani is his biggest competition and not Emmanuel Wilson speaks volumes for Jadarian Price's value.
59:00Like, people want to kind of talk themselves into Helani.
59:03Helani had 22 carries last year. And Jadarian Price, they took in the first round.
59:08This is not – we're not doing rocket science here, Dan.
59:11We're doing fantasy football. Like, you want that first-round guy who can run really fast ahead of the guy that they trust as a pass blocker.
59:19So I think more likely than not, it's Price.
59:22And Price is probably running as, like, a top 18 running back scorer for the first 8 to 10 weeks of the year.
59:29And then if Charbonnet comes back, that number is going to regress.
59:33And it's going to probably be a little bit frustrating.
59:36So I'm open-minded to Charbonnet, especially in best ball formats, but also in managed where – the one annoying thing I'll say
59:43is, and if you're an FFPC, NFFC drafter, you know this one.
59:47If you're active on the waiver wire, it's very annoying to carry injured players for this many weeks.
59:53When you run into the bye weeks, you are going to pull your hair out, potentially, if it's Charbonnet.
59:59Like, if there's scenarios where we think Charbonnet comes back week 6, and then that number keeps getting pushed back and pushed
60:05back and pushed back, and all of a sudden you're holding them until week 10, do you miss out on adding other running backs from the waiver wire?
60:14That's something that matters if you're a high-volume drafter.
60:17So all those things kind of jump into mind, but do I want exposure to this running game?
60:23Absolutely. I think this offense is going to score a lot of points this year.
60:27They had some youth on the offensive line that's a year older.
60:31It's Darnold year two. I know we lose Clint Kubiak, but I don't think the ship is going to sink here in Seattle.
60:38I think that they're still going to be a very, very good football team.
60:43Yeah, I'm right there with you on a lot of that.
60:46I think Price is developmental as a weapon in the passing game, both in his blocking and as being a receiver.
60:53So I do see where the Holani people are coming from, but I'm just not sure that Holani is that guy.
60:59I think that might be Emmanuel Wilson. And it's a little bit of, hey, Holani's been with the team.
61:05We're going to give him the deference. We're going to let him take the first reps here, and we're going to let
61:12Emmanuel Wilson kind of earn his way up the depth chart.
61:15I think it's way too early to be making any sort of pronouncements about what's happening between Holani and Wilson.
61:22It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
61:25And, you know, as far as Theo, when we're talking about Zach Charbonnet, if I'm talking a managed league where I have
61:32access to waivers, I'm probably not drafting Charbonnet, just because I feel like there's a pretty good chance of exactly what you're talking about happens.
61:40And, you know, whichever team has him starts getting in a jam on waivers, and eventually there's going to come a point
61:46where they're like, I just can't hold this guy, you know.
61:50And then he gets dropped, and now I've got my shot at him if I want him, and I haven't had to pay that holding cost.
61:58Somebody else did that for, you know, four, five, six, seven weeks.
62:02So I'm just not sure that Charbonnet can give me enough to make it worth holding him all that time.
62:08Now, if we were talking about, you know, this was, you know, a Saquon Barkley or somebody like that, you know, that would be a completely different story.
62:17I'd, you know, I'd hold Barkley through thick and thin.
62:20But Charbonnet, don't know if I can do that.
62:23Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. So one last one here.
62:26What do you think about the Tennessee Titans? I think they're kind of a fascinating offense.
62:31I think they might be poised to improve a lot.
62:34I know you're in on Carnell Tate at cost.
62:37You'd probably be in on Carnell Tate two rounds earlier than what he's going.
62:41And you are, as far as I know, one of the bigger Carnell Tate stands out there.
62:46And I'm definitely hopping on board as well. I was a little bit slower to get on the bus.
62:52But I've gotten there, Theo. I've gotten there. Yeah, it's hard to, it's hard to, there's room on the bus if you're not there.
63:00Carnell Tate was such an easy click for a long portion of like early drafts.
63:05But Dan, you're starting to see like, I know there was a draft that, there was the live FFPC main event.
63:11I went on with those guys this past Sunday.
63:14And Cardinal Tate went at like the 408. And then I know our friend Andrew Schellenberg also shared his slow main event draft board.
63:22And I think Tate went somewhere in that 408 to 4010 range.
63:25So you're starting to see drafters saying, I'm going to draft him.
63:29I don't care if I have to reach. Where it was a lot easier click when he was going inside of round six.
63:36And you were getting him at like the 5-6 turn.
63:39So it's a significant ADP breakthrough for him. But I think you get, you look at sort of the track record with
63:46Brian Dable fast tracking these high pedigree wide receivers that are on their first year with the team.
63:52You saw with Malik Neighbors. And Malik Neighbors was a better prospect than Carnell Tate.
63:57But draft capital wise, almost identical. So we saw with Malik Neighbors, his rookie year finishes as a wide receiver one.
64:03Outstanding in every metric, target share, air yard share, first read rate.
64:07Then you look at what he did with Stephon Diggs back in Buffalo.
64:11Where Diggs was a sixth round pick in NFFC.
64:14Was one of the best values you could have had in NFFC.
64:17Like maybe the last 10 years of the wide receiver position.
64:21Besides like the Cooper Cup year, the Debo Samuel year.
64:24But Diggs was like a sixth round pick that finished as the wide receiver three overall.
64:29Or wide receiver two that year. Challenge for wide receiver one overall numbers.
64:33So Dables fast track guys and featured them in multiple years.
64:37And why can't it be Carnell Tate? The vibes are there.
64:40Cam Ward has said all the right things about him.
64:43And you're hearing the beat reporters saying this guy kind of looks flawless.
64:47Best wide receiver we've had since A.J. Brown. I think if you don't believe in Carnell Tate, then Wandel becomes interesting.
64:54Because he's a target earner. And he's got the ability to sort of, can he give you wide receiver three in flex weeks?
65:01He's had 140 targets in back-to-back years. I think that number goes down.
65:05The only way that number sort of stays at 140 is if Tate is not as good as we think he is.
65:12But I'm with you. This offense is a source of value.
65:15And then you look at sort of Pollard's had four straight years with 1,000 rushing yards.
65:20And he just sort of sits there at a value in every single draft.
65:25No one's excited about drafting him. I know like Nicholas Singleton and him were side-by-side in like Dynasty startups.
65:31But I think Pollard, if you're looking for like an innings eater, a source of like super cheap running back two or
65:38flex value, he'll give you that for the beginning of the year.
65:41And even guys like Gunnar Helm are kind of interesting.
65:44I think this offense, it's so cheap to get pieces of that there's a chance that they could all sort of deliver.
65:51Yeah, I really like that take. And Steve G., Fantasy Sispranos, points out Cam Ward.
65:56You know, also it's on the upside this year.
65:59You know, if you're buying into all those other pieces, you probably want to be buying into Ward as well.
66:05I have a ton of Ward on Underdog where Ward was like the cheap, you can build three quarterback builds in best
66:12ball with Cam Ward as like your QB2 or QB3.
66:15So you could have taken a high-profile quarterback, just sat there, and then took Cam Ward and Daniel Jones over and over
66:22and over again, or Malik Willis before the ADP rise.
66:25It was like a very cheap source. I do think Ward will kind of tick up a little bit throughout the summer in best ball value.
66:33But yeah, I'm with Steve on that one. Ward, I mean, the tape coming out of Miami was just awesome.
66:39And he was in a horrible situation last year that got a lot better, not only with the play caller, but look
66:46at what they've done the last year. It's like Chim D.K., they'll mix him in as a weapon.
66:52Elik Iamaner had like 90 targets last year. However, Calvin Ridley's healthy.
66:56And then they go and they sign one of the most expensive free agent-wide receivers they could in Wandel.
67:02And then they double down with Carnell Tate. But really, it's getting Dable.
67:06We saw what Dable was able to do with Daniel Jones.
67:09Certainly Cam Ward is not Josh Allen. That's sort of a poor comparison.
67:13I think I could be the offensive coordinator for Josh Allen and get a ton of fantasy scoring out of him.
67:20But Dable certainly maximized Daniel Jones. That was Daniel Jones was like down in the dumps.
67:25And then Daniel Jones delivered like a top eight scoring season.
67:28So you wonder about Cam Ward. Is he more of an opportunistic scrambler where he's not unathletic, but he's never a guy who's put up big rushing yards?
67:37But does Dable sort of untap that? I think if Steve is right, I think it's Cam Ward has to run a
67:44little bit to kind of justify that top 12 prediction.
67:47Yeah, I think Ward is starting to learn that he needs to use his legs a little bit more.
67:53I think he was starting to pick up on that at the end of last year.
67:58And it sounds like Dable is going to lean into that.
68:01And Cam Ward's offseason conditioning, he was taking that into account as well that he wanted to be able to run a
68:08little bit more, be able to take a little bit more punishment if need be.
68:13So, you know, I think that it really wheels up for him there.
68:17And I think with all these parts of the offense, you know, we're talking about, hey, we're bullish on this, you know, and everything's really cheap.
68:25You know, I go back to Tony Pollard. I think he's just way too cheap because I think he's clearly the best running back on this team.
68:34I mean, I think Spears is, you know, he's a good running back, but he's a little bit injury prone.
68:40Singleton, we don't know that much about. I don't think they're going to be, you know, looking to rush him into the lineup.
68:47I think they've probably got him as a little bit more of a developmental player.
68:52And I really think Tony Pollard, you know, if this offense can sustain drives better, you know, he's going to be on the field more often.
69:00He's going to get more touches. I think everything's going to work together.
69:04You know, he's going off, you know, in the low 30s, you know, like running back 30, 31, 32, something like that.
69:11And just a real value to me. So love that pick there.
69:15All right. Well, we are even just a little bit over an hour.
69:19So I think we'll probably cut it off here.
69:21I was hoping we might be able to get a chance to go through our main event, but we're only halfway through that.
69:29Let's run it back, Dan. Let's do a main event review.
69:32I'm down to do it. But yeah, let's do it either on my show or your show.
69:37So I can't wait to do that one. Hopefully we keep running pure in round 11 and round 12 and we still want to talk about it.
69:46Yes, exactly. If this show never happens, you know things went sideways real fast.
69:50That's right. That's right. I don't see that happening, though.
69:53But anyway, we appreciate everybody coming along here. That's going to do it for this week's episode of The Dominator.
70:00Please don't forget to hit the like button on YouTube.
70:03Subscribe on the Player Profiler channel if you haven't already.
70:06And next week I'm going to be coming in hot with a guy who's been around on Twitter for a while, hasn't
70:13really been in the podcasting world too much, best ball maven Sean Mitchell.
70:17If you're on X, it's hard to miss him.
70:20So I wanted to get him on for a deeper dive into his best ball strategies and just kind of give him
70:26a chance to express himself in a little bit more than 140 to 180 characters.
70:31So we appreciate you all coming on and hanging with us today.
70:35We'll see you next week. Until then, go dominate your drafts.
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