The Lineup Show - 5 BUSTS That Will DESTROY Your 2026 Fantasy Football Season
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
32 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 4, 2026
Published
Sat, July 4, 2026
9
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceChase BrownDaniel JonesDe'Von AchaneJosh DownsKeaton MitchellKimani VidalSam LaPortaTyler Warren
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeBust13:30
Alec Pierce is a bust pick at WR32 ADP in redraft. Despite being talented as a real-life receiver, Pierce is a field stretcher who relies on deep bombs; he had only 47 receptions in 2025 (his career high through four years in the league) and has never had a 50-catch season. The source is skeptical that a player can go four straight years without 50 catches and finish as a top-32 WR. Four of Pierce's six touchdowns and his two best weekly finishes came after Daniel Jones was injured, meaning Pierce performed better without a healthy Jones. Now Jones is returning from a torn Achilles, which the source does not want to bet on for consistent deep ball production. The nail in the coffin is Pierce's ankle injury and offseason surgery; he has not participated in OTAs or minicamp, and the Colts have been cryptic about his return timeline. For a player who relies on elite speed and explosiveness, ankle problems are a major red flag.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeBust9:00
Chase Brown is a bust pick at RB8 ADP. The source has shifted from a buy to a hold to a sell on Brown as his price has risen throughout the offseason. Brown ranked 30th in yards per carry (just behind Hampton at 32nd) and 22nd in PFF rushing grade among RBs with 50+ carries; he was six spots behind teammate Samajay P. Ryan in yards per carry. He ranked 37th in rushing success rate while facing the sixth-least average defenders in the box. The Bengals face the third-most difficult schedule for RBs in 2026. Early in 2025, Brown was poor when Joe Burrow was healthy, only excelling late in the season when Burrow was injured and he received goal-line work. The source does not believe in his talent level and views him as a bet solely on the Bengals offense, not on Brown's ability.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury15:15
Daniel Jones is returning from a torn Achilles injury, which is a concern for Alec Pierce's deep-ball production. Pierce performed better without a healthy Jones (four of six TDs and two best weekly finishes came after Jones was injured), so betting on consistent bomb production with Jones coming off a torn Achilles is risky.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust24:31
Devon Achane is ranked running back 6 or 7 in PPR redraft and RB5 in Dynasty, but the source has grown increasingly bearish on him this offseason despite acknowledging his elite talent and efficiency. The primary concern is situational: loss of Mike McDaniel (who built the offense around Achane and previously elevated Raheem Mostert to RB2 overall in 2023 and Elijah Mitchell to RB20 in PPR points per game in 2021) and the departure of Tua Tagovailoa for Malik Willis. Tua ranked 5th in check-down rate among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2024, creating a perfect environment for Achane's passing-game success. Achane ranked 3rd in target share among all NFL running backs in 2024 and 2nd the prior year. Malik Willis is a run-first QB with the #1 scramble rate in the NFL last season and the 4th highest eight-odd of any QB with 50+ snaps—both metrics unfavorable for receiving volume. The Dolphins are projected to win 4.5 games (FanDuel), creating negative game scripts and poor field position. Achane accumulated 139.8 PPR points last year (RB5), with the passing work being the primary driver of his elite finish. The source projects that if passing work is cut by 30-50%, Achane will not justify his late first/early second round ADP. The source's conclusion: too much systemic risk at his current cost, despite his talent and efficiency.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveRole13:30
Josh Downs is the preferred target in the Colts offense over Alec Pierce. Downs is performing well in OTAs and is identified as a guy the speakers are high on in the Colts offense. With Michael Pittman out of town, Downs is positioned to benefit from increased target share.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveRole2:30
Keaton Mitchell is positioned to benefit from Mike McDaniel's aggressive pursuit and elite efficiency metrics. McDaniel actively campaigned to sign Mitchell as a free agent, even hanging wanted posters in the Chargers facility, signaling the coach's clear desire to add an explosive pass-catching back. Mitchell ranked #1 in yards per carry and #3 in explosive run rate among RBs with 50+ carries in 2025, outperforming teammate Amari Hampton on both metrics. These elite efficiency numbers suggest Mitchell will be heavily involved in the Chargers offense under McDaniel's system.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
NegativeUsage3:12
Kamani Vidal represents additional competition for Hampton's workload. Vidal was heavily used last year and had four top-eight fantasy finishes. In the playoff game against the Patriots, Vidal played 93% of snaps compared to Hampton's 3%, despite Hampton being active for his fifth consecutive game. While the speaker does not expect Vidal to be ahead of Hampton on the depth chart, Vidal is unlikely to disappear entirely and will likely retain some role in the offense.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeBust19:15
Sam Laporta is ranked tight end 6 in redraft and tight end 7 in Dynasty, but the source identifies him as a bust pick due to limited opportunity in the Detroit Lions offense despite his talent. His touchdown rate has declined sharply from 10 in his rookie season to 7 in year two and 3 last year (9 games). The offense has evolved with growing roles for Jameer Gibbs, Jameson Williams (91 targets in year two, 102 last year), and Isaac Tesla carving out red zone work. The source argues there's a sharp decline in tight end tiers after Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, with Colston Loveland and Warren in a second tier of upside guys, and Laporta right at the top of that sharp decline. The source believes Isaiah Likely has a better chance to finish as a top-3 tight end than Laporta. The redraft price is the primary concern; at his ADP, the opportunity cost is not worth it if he finishes as tight end 6, since the difference between tight end 6 and tight end 16 is negligible most years.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveRole16:30
Tyler Warren is positioned to benefit from Michael Pittman's departure from the Colts. The source notes they are at price on Warren, who will soak up a lot of the targets that Pittman left on the table, making him a preferred target in the Colts offense over Alec Pierce.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:49Free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. Welcome into the live fantasy football show.
0:53I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And Mello, these guys are never fun to talk about.
0:58Let's break down five players with some red flags that leave them vulnerable to being a potential bust in fantasy football for
1:042026, including the one guy that we are not going near in any drafts at ADP.
1:09So stick around for that. But Mello, as always, we're not going to waste anybody's time.
1:14Give us your first bust of the 2026 NFL season.
1:16You know, Mitch, I was thinking to myself, it's been quite some time since we talked about Amari and Hampton on this show.
1:23And I figured it's due time. I'm going to do it again.
1:26I haven't in months, I don't think. I was really out on him early offseason.
1:31I started to warm up a bit. But you know what?
1:34I still am out. I still view him as a bust in 2026.
1:38And I will admit... Relative to ADP is my point here.
1:41Relative to ADP. Thank you. Because I feel like a hypocrite knowing that he's on this Chargers offense, which I've been so bullish on.
1:48I have been more in on this Chargers offense than maybe anyone.
1:51And now I'm saying I don't want their running back.
1:54I have. And I don't want their running back in this Mike McDaniel offense.
1:58But it's exactly what you said. I don't want him at cost.
2:02He is going as the ninth running back off the board ahead of guys like Saquon Barkley, Ken Walker, Jeremiah Love, Derek
2:08Henry, all of which I'm taking over Hampton. All of which I like much more than Hampton.
2:13Because despite the great opportunity that Hampton does have, I have problems.
2:16And one of those problems is the opportunity itself.
2:19Because I don't know that it'll be exactly what people are expecting in terms of total usage.
2:24Yeah, I think this is the best point. I love this.
2:27I don't think he's going to be the bell cow.
2:30He did catch the ball quite a bit last year out of honestly more than anything necessity.
2:35Justin Herbert was dumping it down before being pummeled in like half a second every single play.
2:40But pass catching, running routes, that's not Hampton's biggest strength as a player.
2:43That's not his forte. So I think he could lose some of that work.
2:48You look at what this team did this offseason.
2:50Mike McDaniel was hardcore campaigning, literally hanging up wanted posters in the Chargers facility for Keaton Mitchell when he was a free agent.
2:57And they went out and they got him. McDaniel has the keys to this offense.
3:01He clearly wanted an explosive pass catching back to utilize.
3:04And they got him. They got Keaton Mitchell who will clearly be involved in some capacity.
3:09And then, and this is the one that like nobody is talking about.
3:12People are so quick to forget Kamani Vidal was heavily used last year.
3:16Heavily used. It was actually pretty good. He had four top eight finishes last year in fantasy.
3:21And when things mattered the most in the playoffs, he played 93% of snaps in that playoff game against the Patriots compared
3:27to Hampton who only played 3% of snaps despite being active for his fifth consecutive game when the starters played.
3:33I know he was banged up and the injuries were the main reason he didn't play a ton.
3:38But it wasn't like it was his first game back from injury.
3:42He had been active five consecutive weeks if you exclude the week 18 games that none of the starters dressed.
3:47So with that said, I'm not saying Vidal will be ahead of Hampton on the depth chart.
3:52I'm not saying he's going to be more heavily used than Hampton.
3:56I'm just saying I'm not sure that Vidal is going to go away entirely.
4:00In fact, I don't think he will. I think he'll have some sort of role on this offense, even if it's a small one.
4:07So that's my real concern for Hampton is just the usage, the involvement, the other running backs cutting into his workload.
4:13But it's not my only concern. And this is where I'm going to get absolutely fried and people are going to get so pissed at me.
4:20I have more that I don't think it's going to end well for either of us.
4:25It's not well for us, but like I'm just not convinced that Amari and Hampton's that good.
4:30I'm really not convinced. I know he was banged up last year.
4:33I know that played a role in the lack of production and the lack of the film looking great.
4:39But he didn't pass the eye test for me, even when he was healthy.
4:43I mean, even if you want to take it back to the preseason, I was not overly impressed.
4:48You're going to bring up that run that he had where he got shoestring tackle that he got caught up to.
4:54That was what got everyone so scared. I was like, what the hell is that?
4:58It was such an ick. I know that's like one play, but it wasn't just that play.
5:03Like he didn't really have a lot of plays that stood out to me as a rookie.
5:08And there are metrics to support my eyes as well.
5:11It's not just my eyes. Despite being this big bodied, supposedly physical running back, he ranked 32nd in yards after contact per
5:17carry among all running backs with at least 50 carries.
5:20Similarly, he ranked 32nd in fantasy points per rush among running backs with at least 50 carries.
5:25And I'll admit I'm probably being a little harsh because I absolutely see the upside.
5:30Like I'm a big enough man to see the other side, to understand where other people are coming from.
5:35And for what it's worth, I have him as my running back 13 in redraft.
5:39So like that's where, you know, that's, that's pretty high.
5:42Like I still see the upside and I'm willing to take a shot at him as the running back 13.
5:48But we're with where he's going as a running back nine, four running back spots higher that early in a draft, which is pretty substantial.
5:55I'm just fading him. I think he is going to disappoint a lot of people at cost.
6:00Well, that's the important thing about talking busts. It's like we're not guaranteeing that a guy you're drafting in the top 10
6:06or top 20, you know, at their position is going to do bad.
6:10It's that there's a risk here that I don't think enough people are addressing.
6:14And, you know, like you said, we could be idiots.
6:17We are idiots. And maybe we're wrong about this.
6:20But something very interesting to me, ranking 29th among running backs with 50 or more carries last year in yards per carry.
6:26Do you know who ranked number one? I don't, but I can't wait to hear it.
6:31It's Keaton Mitchell. Do you know who ranked number three in explosive run rate?
6:35Keaton Mitchell? It's Keaton Mitchell. You know who ranked number 25?
6:38I'm going to guess Amari and Hampton. Wow, mellow.
6:40Very astute observation. So I don't say that to be like, boom, Keaton Mitchell is a better running back.
6:46But for all of the people that are just like so insistent upon the fact that like Keaton Mitchell isn't going to be part of this offense.
6:54Like you said, Mike McDaniel came in. There were so many reports that the first thing he said was, I want Keaton Mitchell.
7:00And then you look at the underlying metrics and Keaton Mitchell was more impressive than Amari and Hampton last year.
7:06And I know, I know he was hurt and he was banged up.
7:10And I get that point. But I just think we're discounting all of these things because of like the promise of what Amari and Hampton could be.
7:18And that's why we have him as the running back six in dynasty, the running back nine in redraft.
7:23And I agree with you. I think there's more of a risk here that he falls.
7:28And when you think about that dynasty price, you're saying that I love bringing up is like, I think he's a lot
7:34closer to the ceiling than his floor. Or like if he has a great season, is he moving up that much higher than running back six?
7:42Probably not. Is he jumping like Ashton Gentry? And I mean, maybe Jeremiah Love.
7:46I guess we'll see how the rookie season goes.
7:48But to me, this guy, there's just so much risk here that I think isn't being talked about.
7:53But if I'm going to go back, I'm going to talk about the upside that you mentioned.
7:58He had an extremely high target share last year.
8:01And that's great. And like you look at Mike McDaniel and what he did with Devon HN, like, OK, maybe there is a path there.
8:08I just have a hard time feeling very confident that he's going to pay off at his price.
8:13Yeah, same. And 100% the target share. Like he showed he can catch passes last year, which is why there's upside, which
8:20is why even I am like, OK, there's a path.
8:23But what we talked about, like especially with Keaton Mitchell, I'm like, how much usage is there going to be?
8:28I think also part of it, too, is we talk about like this obsession with year two receivers.
8:33It exists with running backs, too. Oftentimes it's warranted, but oftentimes it's not like we've seen in recent years guys like Cam
8:40Akers and Miles Sanders and like even Antonio Gibson, who's a guy I loved early on in his career.
8:45Patriots legend. Yeah, Patriots legend, Antonio Gibson. Like they have solid rookie years, but nothing like crazy.
8:50And then we pump them up to first and second round picks in year two when it's like, is that hype or is that real?
8:57You know, a thousand percent. I don't know if we've ever spent that much time talking about first player on the show, but you're right.
9:05It had been way too long since we talked to Samwise and I got passionate.
9:09We love talking to Mario. I got like so fired up there.
9:12I had to remind the audience that I am a little bit of an idiot if you feel comfortable in fading me.
9:19But let's talk about another running back, a guy that I actually truly hate bringing up his name right now because he
9:25felt like he was going to be a value.
9:28And his price has skyrocketed this offseason. And I've jumped all the way from a buy to a hold to a sell on Chase Brown, 26 years old.
9:36We've continually seen his price keep going up and up and up this offseason, factoring in an extension, which I know he's motivated to sign.
9:43But when money comes into the picture, nothing's a sure thing.
9:46And we'll see how much they're actually willing to offer him with how much other money is tied up in this offense.
9:52That's neither here nor there, though. I want to talk about his 2026 outlook and why he could be a potential bust at his price.
10:00We've talked about how maybe, maybe we've been too low on Chase Brown.
10:03I think our issue with him is that despite it being an awesome situation, neither one of us particularly believes in the talent.
10:10And I do have some numbers to back that up.
10:13Among running backs with 50 or more carries in 2025, he ranked 30th in yards per carry right behind Amari and Hampton,
10:19six spots behind his teammates, Samajay P. Ryan. And in that same measure of 50 or more carries, he was 22nd in
10:26the NFL and PFF's rushing grade, 37th in rushing success rate.
10:29All of this while facing the sixth least average defenders in the box on any given run in 2025.
10:34According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Bengals have the third most difficult schedule for running backs in the NFL in 2026.
10:40The thing I'll give him, and it's almost the exact same argument with Hampton, he does tack on the receiving work, which is very helpful.
10:48He had 69 receptions, nice, for 437 yards and five touchdowns.
10:51But that's not enough for me to justify this price.
10:54I think there's a lot of guys I'd much rather have going in this area.
10:58We've talked about taking a swing on a guy like Ken Walker who's going as the RB10 or drop down a little
11:04more to the RB12 and you've got a guy in Derrick Henry that we're so high on.
11:09And so I just, I think he's almost become this guy that is like a sneaky safe guy, if that makes sense.
11:16Like people think they've got the secret guy who's like safe and is going to give them a really solid floor.
11:22I don't, I don't know if that floor exists.
11:24And I actually feel very confident that the ceiling doesn't exist.
11:27It's solely a bet on the fact that he plays in the Spengals offense.
11:31Like that's really all you're betting on because you're right.
11:34I think even most people, maybe not everyone, I think most people that like Chase Brown will even admit like he's probably
11:41not like the best real life NFL running back.
11:43Yeah, you put him on another team and it's like, where are we drafting him?
11:48Exactly. But it's just, you know, he's in this situation and in Cincinnati and it's like down the stretch last year, he was great in fantasy.
11:55He was getting the goal line work and he was catching a lot of passes.
11:59People forget early on though, people were cursing his name like it was a bust.
12:04And I know a lot of that was Joe Burrow being hurt and he was playing in like Jake Browning and Joe Flacco offenses.
12:11Even the first couple of weeks though, before Joe Burrow got hurt, Chase Brown wasn't very good.
12:15Yeah. So are we really rolling the dice that we're going to get what we got for stretches late last year?
12:22Or are we going to get what we got in early 2025?
12:25At a running back eight price tag, I'm like, I don't know that I want to take that bet, especially if it's
12:31a guy who I don't think is that good.
12:34Now with that said, similar to what we talked about with Hampton, there is a path.
12:39Because if, if this Bengals offense is what they were last year, if Brown is what he was last year, if he's
12:45catching passes, if he's getting goal line work, he could, he could have a top five finish for all we know.
12:51But there's really not many guys going around him that are even close to his talent level.
12:56And I mean that in a derogatory way, not a good way.
12:59I, I'm with you, man. I, the one thing I hate about bust episode, I hate being negative about guys, but I
13:06think this is just one about a guy in a situation I was really excited for that.
13:11I think we've blown up in the rankings a little bit too much, but I'm actually interested when more of like the
13:17casuals come in, in like August, how we see his price start shaking out.
13:21Cause I could see it dropping down and him becoming a little bit safer by then.
13:26All right. Well enough negativity about guys' talents. I'm going to talk about a guy I actually do think is talented, uh,
13:32at least more so than some of the other guys we've talked about relative to their public perception.
13:37And that is Alec Pierce as a Josh Downstruger, which I know we both are.
13:41I kind of feel obligated to be anti-Alec Pierce.
13:44You kind of have to like pick one or the other.
13:47There's really, there's no middle ground. It's a zero sum game in the Alec Pierce, Josh Downs.
13:52Yeah. You got to pick a side. No being a coward.
13:55You got to take a stance here. And I do think like admittedly, he's a good real life receiver.
14:01Like I mentioned, he does really good real life things, but I just don't want him in fantasy.
14:06I think it'd be a little bit rude and disingenuous for me to call him a one trick pony, but he's a
14:12pony who does one trick really fricking well. And then, and maybe has a couple of other tricks that he doesn't.
14:18He does like a, it's a pony that does like a three 60 Ollie on a half pipe.
14:24Yeah. That's Alec Pierce. I need someone to somehow animate that for me.
14:27Um, and he is, you know, he could do a couple of other tricks, but not nearly as well.
14:33Not nearly as effective. Yeah. Because what he is, is a field stretcher.
14:36Like, let's be honest with ourselves here. He keeps defenses honest and now and then he catches a bomb and it's really
14:43cool when he catches that 50 yard bomb. It's awesome.
14:46But last year, which was his best career year in just about every metric, including receptions.
14:50He had 47. That was his career high. 47 catches through four years in the league.
14:55His highest reception count was 47. And we're drafting as the wide receiver 32 and redraft despite never having a 50 catch season through four years.
15:02I don't have the data in terms of how often guys go for straight years without 50 catches and then have a top 32 finish.
15:10I imagine it's extraordinarily rare. I imagine it does not happen.
15:13And yes, I know he catches those bombs like we talked about and he gets a ton of yards and some touchdowns,
15:19which make up for the lack of receptions. But do we really want to bet on those bombs coming consistently with Daniel Jones coming off at torn Achilles?
15:27For me, the answer is no. I don't want to bet on that.
15:31In fact, four of Alec Pierce's six touchdowns last year and his two best weekly finishes last year came after Daniel Jones got hurt.
15:38Meaning Pierce was better without Daniel Jones. He was not at his best with a healthy Daniel Jones.
15:43And now he's going into next year with Daniel Jones coming off at torn Achilles.
15:47All of that I don't like, but I could maybe overlook it when you look at the contract he got and Michael Pittman's out of town.
15:55I'm like, okay, I could talk myself into it.
15:57Until the nail on the coffin, which is the ankle injury.
16:01That did it for me. He had surgery this offseason.
16:04He has not participated in OTAs or minicamp at all.
16:06The Colts have been very cryptic about his timetable to return.
16:10Meanwhile, Josh Downs is like the second coming of Christ in OTAs.
16:13And Pierce isn't participating and he's hurt. And you look at this player who relies on elite speed and explosiveness and he's got ankle problems.
16:20Which is not what you want to hear for a guy who relies on elite speed and explosiveness.
16:25So for me, it's a very hard feat in his current ADP.
16:29Yeah, I've been taking him in like best ball when he drops like 10 spots.
16:33But I'm with you. I think we're already not super high on this Colts offense.
16:38This year, Josh Downs is the one guy we've identified that we're pretty high on.
16:42And obviously, I think we're both pretty much at price on Tyler Warren, who is going to soak up a lot of
16:48those targets that Michael Pittman left on the table.
16:51And then obviously, Jonathan Taylor is somewhat going to get his.
16:54And I just think there's a level of efficiency that Alec Pierce would need to maintain on this few targets to make
17:00him like actually worthwhile as a fancy starter. Because like you don't want to be in a situation where you're starting a
17:07guy and like, sure, he might net out the season as like the wide receiver 30.
17:11And that feels like you like got out of it unscathed.
17:14But like he puts up weeks where he scores like six points.
17:18And that's what scares me about Alec Pierce. Yeah, I like it more in best ball.
17:23Like you said, where you're targeting him. Like there, I'm more okay with it, even though I think his price is probably a little high.
17:30But yeah, like a home league, like I don't want to end up in Denny's or whatever degenerate punishment like your buddy's made up.
17:37Like I don't want to have that headache from Alec Pierce.
17:40I completely agree. I actually have to. We pitched a punishment idea today that everyone in the league on their birthday, you
17:46have to send a video of you singing them happy birthday and eat an entire cake for the whole year after you lose.
17:53And I think that's like the best fancy punishment idea.
17:56I have a big back confession. I read that and was like, that actually sounds great.
18:00Sounds like a great excuse to eat 11 cakes.
18:03Yeah, I want to be like the kid in Matilda just eating disgusting amounts of cake.
18:08And people can't be like, you're disgusting. Oh no, I had to do it.
18:12My bad. Yeah. My bad. I accidentally took Brian Robinson into the B.
18:15John Robinson in the first round. Whoops. Oh, so it's cool when someone has 24 pancakes, but I can't have 11 regular cakes.
18:22Yeah. What is that? This is America. Total bullshit.
18:25All right. Let's jump into our fourth guy. Before we do, if you're listening to this on the player profiler feed, make
18:31sure to go check out our main feed and our YouTube, the lineup fantasy football show.
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19:20No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different.
19:23And Messi only trusts Duracell. But let's talk some Sam Laporta.
19:27This is a guy that I think he's talented.
19:29I think this is kind of similar to Alec Pierce in the sense that I just don't know how much opportunity he's truly going to get moving forward.
19:37He's 25 years old. He's the tight end six in redraft, the tight end seven in Dynasty.
19:42I think the redraft price is what bothers me more.
19:45But looking at the 2026 season, I'm not necessarily fired up about the Dynasty price either because if it's a bad year, he's going to fall there too.
19:53We rank so heavily on what we saw the year prior.
19:56And so I think this pick to me is a commentary both on his role in the Detroit Lions offense, but also
20:03a commentary on like the landscape of tight ends in fantasy football.
20:06We throw the word tear around a lot. And like to me, there's too many tears inside of the real tear at the top.
20:13I feel like I'm like, what's his name from Knives Out?
20:16He's like, it's a donut hole inside of a donut.
20:19Le Blanc or something? No, no. Le Blanc. Yeah, no.
20:22Le Blanc. No, that's... Blanc. Just Blanc. Benoit Blanc.
20:24I feel like we're trying to learn French right now and it's just not working for me.
20:29It's... I feel like Benoit Blanc right now. But anyway, the two mini tears inside the real tear is Brock Bowers and Trey McBride at the mountaintop.
20:37And then that kind of craft Loveland and Warren in that other one, which is like the guys I love grabbing because the upside is so real.
20:45But then I just think there's this sharp decline after them.
20:48And who's the guy right at the top of that sharp decline?
20:52Sam Laporta. And so before everyone grabs their pitchforks and comes after me for not putting Sam Laporta in the upside tier
20:58after he was a tight end one in his rookie season, I want to acknowledge that I understand what he did in that year.
21:05And I have my reasons for thinking that it won't repeat.
21:08And one of the first reasons is that I don't think it's sustainable, the touchdown rate that he had that rookie season.
21:1410 touchdowns his rookie year, down to 7 in his second season, and then 3 last year.
21:19But that obviously came because he was only in 9 games.
21:22A huge change though in this offense has come with the growing roles of Jameer Gibbs and Jameson Williams over the past two years.
21:29Jameson doesn't really provide that same threat to the red zone work as Gibbs does, but after earning only 42 targets in
21:36Laporta's rookie season, we've seen J-Mo get out of the doghouse a bit and he builds up to 91 targets and then 102.
21:42And then if you do want to talk about red zone threats, now we've got Isaac Tesla carving out a role in this offense.
21:49And we've talked about how efficient he's been as a target in the end zone for Jared Goff.
21:54And so for me, I think there's a situational issue here.
21:58There being a lot of mouths to feed. I haven't even mentioned Amin Ross St.
22:02Brown, who will be the wide receiver three in fantasy football this year.
22:06But to me, it's damn right. It's just a far more limited ceiling and path here in regards to meaningful volume than
22:12there is for those top five guys. Or honestly, in terms of ceiling, there is for some of those later picks.
22:18Like we just talked about Isaiah Likely last episode.
22:21And like people are going to want to pull the pitchforks on me.
22:24I think there's a better chance Isaiah Likely finishes as a top three tight end than Sam Laporta.
22:30And that's going to get clipped to the moon.
22:32But that's my personal feeling. Reddit, YouTube, Instagram, everywhere people are going to be forming an army against you for that one.
22:39Yeah. I don't know if I agree with it, but I don't think it's crazy.
22:43Like I don't think that's a crazy take. But I like the way you framed everything there because I actually don't have
22:49a problem with where Sam Laporta is being ranked in terms of tight ends.
22:53I think that's correct. I think the market has it right.
22:56Like wherever you look, I don't think, oh, well, these three guys below him should be above him.
23:02Yeah. He's appropriately ranked. It's a philosophical stance that where he's going, you should just punt tight end.
23:07Wait for those upside guys late. That's fair. Or whoever else you like.
23:11Because like, honestly, even some guys going ahead of them.
23:13Like I do like Sam Laporta a lot. Like I probably would take him over Harold Fenn, which is maybe a little hot takey.
23:20I think most people would probably prefer Fenn in.
23:23But I'll take Pitts. Even with that said, yeah, you'll take Pitts.
23:26I would rather quit Fantasy Forever before taking Kyle Pitts.
23:29But regardless, like all these guys are talking about Pitts like Fenn in Laporta.
23:33It's almost pointless to even talk about who I'd prefer because I'm not taking any of them.
23:38That range of tight ends, I'm fading altogether. And with that said, even if Laporta does finish where he's getting drafted, he might as well be a bust.
23:46Because if you're not getting the high level output from tight end, it doesn't matter.
23:51It doesn't make a difference. It's almost like this entire argument could have just been instead of Sam Laporta, we're naming tight ends 6 through like 10.
23:58Yeah, they're all busts. Like once you get past that top 5, I think you're better off streaming.
24:04I fully agree with that. The opportunity cost of taking Sam Laporta at ADP is not worth it if you get a tight end 6 finish.
24:11No, because a tight end 6 finish might as well be a tight end 16 finish.
24:16Most years, like there's, the difference is negligible. The difference between Trey McBride and the tight end 2 Kyle Pitts was the
24:22same as Kyle Pitts and the tight end 27 Sam Laporta.
24:25Yeah, exactly. And that's usually how it goes every single year.
24:28Mitch, you ready for the saddest one of this list?
24:31The one that hurts me? This one hurts my soul and I...
24:35We're idiots. I hope we're wrong. I hope I am wrong too.
24:38And I am an idiot. I don't need to be wrong to know I'm an idiot.
24:43But I think we might be right here. I have a sneaky suspicion we got one right here.
24:48Devon A-Chan. He's so good. Put on the sad music.
24:51Yeah, sad music. People are going to be mad too.
24:54We're sad. Our audience is mad that we uttered his name in a bust episode.
24:58He's great. I have nothing bad to say about A-Chan in terms of his talent.
25:02I've soured on him tremendously over this offseason. I was all the way in back in February when I was the sicko
25:09locked in my little fantasy dungeon preparing for next season.
25:12But I've just gone lower and lower this whole offseason as I think you have as well, Mitch.
25:17Yeah. But it has nothing to do with talent.
25:19I can't emphasize it enough. It's strictly situation. So let's start off by talking about the loss of Mike McDaniel we talked about earlier.
25:26Although A-Chan obviously deserves a ton of credit for his own success because he is so talented, it is fair to point
25:33out that Mike McDaniel built the offense around him and at least was partially responsible for A-Chan's success.
25:38I think McDaniel contributed significantly to it. We've seen McDaniel contribute to other running back success in fantasies.
25:43On this very team, Raheem Mostert was the running back 2 overall in half-point PPR in 2023.
25:48Raheem freaking Mostert. Which, that feels like a fever dream that that even happened.
25:52Yeah, it does. It was just crazy. And even going back to his San Francisco days, Elijah Mitchell as a relatively unknown
25:58rookie ended up being the running back 20 in points per game in 2021.
26:02That same year, Deebo Samuel was a wide receiver too, which it was his wide back season where he lined up at running back a ton.
26:10They got creative with how they used him, similar to what we've seen with A-Chan recently.
26:14So it is fair to be concerned with Mike McDaniel leaving town.
26:18And on top of that, you lose Tua, who I know isn't very good.
26:22By no means a Tua apologist. I don't think Tua is very good.
26:26But he was good for A-Chan. And that is undisputable.
26:29Because A-Chan ranked third in target share among all NFL running backs in 2024.
26:33Second in that same metric last year. In 2024, which was Tua's last full season as a starter, he ranked fifth in
26:39check down rate among all quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks.
26:42So it was the perfect environment for A-Chan to thrive in the passing game.
26:46And now all of a sudden enter Malik Willis, who is a run first quarterback.
26:51When the pocket collapses, he's more likely to take off and run himself than check it down to a running back.
26:57It's the same reason we don't see running backs who play with guys like Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels or Justin Fields catch the ball very much.
27:04Those quarterbacks are just quicker to run the ball themselves than check it down to the running back.
27:10And now on top of all of that, the Dolphins just stink.
27:13They're just a horrible team. And I don't want a running back on a horrible team.
27:18FanDuel has their total win line at four and a half right now, which is like disgustingly low in a 17 game season.
27:24Dolphins are going to have a ton of negative game scripts.
27:27They're going to be struggling to stay on the field.
27:30They're not going to have good field position. So in essence, it's just a bad team with a running back that will
27:37almost certainly see his passing volume decrease substantially. And A-Chan was so dependent on that passing volume to be an elite fantasy asset.
27:43He's still talented enough. He'll be relevant. He'll still be startable.
27:46He's too damn good to like ride your bench all season, but he's going as the seventh running back off the boarding PPR.
27:53That at that cost, I just can't do it.
27:56I just, I feel like he'll be a bust at that cost.
27:59Yeah, I, it's tough because he was incredibly efficient last year.
28:02And that's, I think why I'm having such a hard time with this bust pick.
28:07But like you said, like I'm seeing also, I've occasionally seen running back six in a lot of rankings too.
28:12He's flipping between six, seven. We're not going to make the joke, but also the RV five in dynasty.
28:18What you brought to the table with Mike McDaniel is honestly, I mean, it's obviously a plus for Maureen Hampton, but that
28:24scares me with the efficiency numbers for Devon A-Chan.
28:27But then more importantly is Tua's departure and bringing in Malik Willis.
28:30And like you said it fifth and check down rate for Tua.
28:34Meanwhile, Malik Willis, like he boasted the number one scramble rate in the NFL last season, not to mention the fourth highest
28:40eight odd of any quarterback who played 50 or more snaps, both of those not boating well for A-Chan.
28:46So, I mean, a lot of this also for dynasty depends on like how long you actually think Malik Willis will be the starter here.
28:53You know, if they end up moving on from Malik Willis, like, you know, hold A-Chan and just hope that you get brighter pastures ahead of you.
29:01But even so, if this is a really down year, his price is going to fall even in a more long-term format.
29:07And so we talked a lot about some of these running backs outside of the top five with high upside.
29:13Again, Kenneth Walker, Derek Henry, Jeremiah Love. And it's not to say that A-Chan doesn't have that upside, but you said it.
29:19The passing work is where he did so much of his damage in the PPR game to the tune of 139.8 PPR
29:25points that got him to the running back five.
29:28And so we have such serious concerns with this passing work.
29:31Obviously, like you don't erase 140 points, but like what if his passing work gets cut in half?
29:36That's what it took to get to the RB5 last year.
29:39We're drafting him at the RB6 or 7. You take away half of that passing work, even 30%.
29:45You're absolutely not paying off that price. And I think there's just so much systemic risk here that a guy that I
29:51think is efficient and awesome and electric and will be fun to have on your roster just isn't going to pay off
29:57what you need for one of those guys you're taking in the late first round, early second.
30:02Yeah, that is so disappointing because I want him.
30:05He's just fun. He's so fun. He is so fun.
30:08If you don't care about any of this, if you're like, fuck numbers, like I just want to have fun, fucking take
30:14Devon A-Chan because I'm not going to blame you for doing it.
30:18Yeah. But if you're like me and you lose because on Monday Night Football, actually Dolphins aren't playing in primetime.
30:23What am I talking about? If you're watching the Uzbekistan game that Roger Goodell approved at 430 in the morning, A-Chan's losing you your week.
30:31Yeah. And if you're like me and you're going to cry yourself to sleep at night, then I would fade him.
30:37Yeah. I think that's very good advice. It depends on how you feel about fantasy football.
30:41If you're a psycho like me, then don't take him.
30:44Those are our five players with some of our highest chances to bust in the 2026 fantasy football season.
30:50If you disagree with any of these, let us know.
30:52What are we missing on some of these guys?
30:55And also if somebody didn't make this list that needs to be on it, let us know down below and give us your whole take on it.
31:03We'd love to chop it up with you in the comments.
31:06Mello, before we get out of here, we miss anything?
31:09Think we got it all? All right. We'll catch you guys next episode.
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