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Fantasy Price Check - 4 Must-Draft Quarterbacks Outside the Elite Tier | 2026 Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

35 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 25, 2026
Published
Sat, July 25, 2026
48
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Patrick MahomesTrevor LawrenceBrock PurdyMike EvansChristian McCaffreyGeorge KittleJordan JamesRicky PearsallTravis KelceBaker MayfieldBo NixBrenton StrangeChris RodriguezChristian Kirk
Player analysis

Player insights

48

Baker Mayfield

PositiveValue22:25

The source prefers Baker Mayfield over Tyler Shuck, noting he had a great season last year before injury. The Buccaneers have resupplied the offense with Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst investment, maintaining a good offensive environment despite Mike Evans' departure.

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Bo Nix

PositiveValue22:25

The source prefers Bo Nix over Tyler Shuck, citing the best offensive line in football, Sean Payton as coach, and the addition of Jalen Waddle as reasons to favor him at his price point.

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Brenton Strange

PositiveRole13:41

In his last six games, Strange recorded 10 red zone targets, indicating significant touchdown equity. He averaged 6 yards per target, 19 yards per reception, and 11.7 yards per target overall, suggesting he is a viable red zone weapon for Trevor Lawrence in 2026.

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Brock Purdy

NegativeValue25:04

Brock Purdy is at an ADP of 101, sitting very close to Patrick Mahomes at 109. The source notes Purdy and Mahomes are probably the closest ADP comps among the quarterbacks discussed.

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PositiveProjection27:04

Purdy is projected at 19 points per game, the highest projection among the quarterbacks discussed; the source projects him for 28 passing touchdowns and 4,662 passing yards this year. Last year he averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game. He sits at ADP 101 and has a good ceiling, though the source notes Trevor Lawrence has a higher ceiling despite similar last-year performance (Lawrence 20.6 ppg vs. Purdy 20.8 ppg). The source expects the offense to remain very good and notes Mike Evans' addition adds more ceiling.

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PositiveProjection28:08

Projected for 4,662 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 8.4 yards per passing attempt; 30 pass attempts per game; 263 rushing attempts with 2 rushing touchdowns. The source notes this passing yard projection is among the highest in the NFL and represents a safe, consistent performer when healthy with strong offensive weapons.

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PositiveRole28:08

The 49ers offense is described as very good and arguably better than last year with the addition of Mike Evans. The offense features strong weapons including Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle (returning), Ricky Pearsall (if healthy), Christian Kirk, and Deebo Samuel. The source emphasizes this is a safe, consistent offense with known production patterns regardless of age concerns.

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PositiveValue29:58

Priced at ADP 101 in redraft and QB 13 in dynasty/NFFC, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes (QB 14), representing Round 7 ADP. The source calls him a phenomenal pick at this price point, comparing him to Jared Goff as a safe, consistent performer who doesn't generate sexy rushing upside but reliably produces when healthy with his weapons intact.

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PositiveValue31:43

Source loves Brock Purdy as a great pick; Kyle Shanahan's offensive design and the way everything is lining up correctly for the 49ers makes him a strong value quarterback outside the elite tier; can be drafted at a discount compared to top-tier options.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeRole10:22

Identified as one of the Jaguars' red zone running backs who will compete for carries inside the red zone, limiting Trevor Lawrence's rushing touchdown upside in 2026.

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Christian Kirk

NegativeRole30:25

Added to the 49ers offense as depth. The source notes Kirk 'doesn't move the needle' but provides some depth layering to the 49ers offense, suggesting limited fantasy impact despite his presence on the roster.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveRole30:25

Described as an older (implied 31+ years old) but still elite performer in the 49ers offense. The source emphasizes that despite age concerns, McCaffrey will continue to dominate and produce at a high level, with the market not properly accounting for his sustained elite production at an advanced age.

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PositiveValue32:32

Round one pick; source notes he is affordable in both dynasty and redraft formats; can be paired with Brock Purdy as part of a value-oriented team-building strategy that allows flexibility to wait on quarterback and other positions.

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Christian Watson

NegativeInjury23:43

The source uses Christian Watson as an example of a player the fantasy community loves but involves 'wish casting' regarding health; Watson's proven production when healthy is known, but durability over a full season remains uncertain.

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Cyrus Allen

NegativeRole6:09

Has become somewhat of a target that people have talked about this year; the source mentions him as an interesting option but expresses overall concern that the Chiefs didn't add enough depth to the receiving room.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveRole28:08

Part of the 49ers receiving corps alongside Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall, and Christian Kirk. Included in the source's assessment that the 49ers offense is very good and arguably better than last year with strong weapons.

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George Kittle

PositiveRole29:08

Returning from injury to the 49ers offense. The source notes that Kittle doesn't need to be the primary receiver; he can function as a dominant blocker while working his way back and still be very effective for the offense, reducing pressure on his immediate production.

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PositiveValue32:00

Ranks 2-6 at tight end in fantasy points per game when healthy; described as a great value play right now at a discount; perpetually delivers elite fantasy points per game year in and year out despite injury concerns; source notes he can get back on the field despite durability questions.

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Jared Goff

PositiveValue22:45

The source highlights Jared Goff as a quarterback one who nobody wants to touch but has a phenomenal schedule this year, making him a preferable option to Tyler Shuck at his price.

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Jordan James

NegativeRole30:34

The source states Jordan James will be 'irrelevant' in the 49ers offense unless Christian McCaffrey is injured, indicating he has minimal fantasy value as a backup running back.

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NegativeProjection31:34

Will be irrelevant in fantasy unless Christian McCaffrey is injured; limited standalone value as a backup.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeRole4:30

Added to the Chiefs to bolster the run game; the source notes that with Eric Biennemi back, the team is expected to run the football more than in prior years, which will impact Mahomes' volume.

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Mike Evans

NegativeDepth Chart24:06

Mike Evans is gone from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the source notes the team has resupplied the receiver position with Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst investments to maintain offensive environment quality.

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NegativeRole30:25

Added to the 49ers offense in 2026, Evans is expected to be a dominant force alongside Christian McCaffrey. The source emphasizes that despite the 49ers' older roster (average age 30 for starting skill position players), Evans at age 31 will still produce at an elite level and is not being accounted for by the market as a potential downside risk.

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NegativeRole31:26

Opposite Ricky Pearsall in the 49ers offense; mentioned as part of the receiving corps where Pearsall is a wild card.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveValue2:24

Mahomes is being disrespected price-wise despite elite consistency; drafted in round 8 in NFFC redraft as a back-end QB1 to early QB2 in Dynasty. Seven seasons with 4,000+ passing yards (two at 5K), six seasons with 300+ rushing yards, only five games missed to injury. Last year's 3,528 passing yards was a career low but attributable to missing three games; full season would add another 4K-yard season to his resume. Recently threw at OTAs in offseason after tearing ACL at end of 2025, with recovery trajectory comparable to Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.

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PositiveProjection3:21

Projected at 18 fantasy points per game, placing him in the low QB1 area, possibly creeping into mid-QB1 range; the source notes he was at 21.2 fantasy points per game last year and expects him to be back Week 1 after his ACL injury, citing his mentality similar to Joe Burrow and Tom Brady's recovery trajectory.

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NegativeInjury3:21

Tore his ACL at the end of 2025; the source expects him to return Week 1 against Denver, citing his mentality and recovery trajectory similar to Joe Burrow and Tom Brady, noting he's been throwing at OTAs during the offseason.

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PositiveValue4:00

Positioned as a strong fallback option if you miss on elite early-tier quarterbacks like Josh Allen; the source emphasizes that with Andy Reid, Eric Biennemi, and Mahomes together, he's one of the better options past the elite tier in both dynasty and redraft formats.

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NegativeProjection4:30

Volume expected to decline due to Eric Biennemi's return and the addition of Kenneth Walker; the source projects 28 passing touchdowns and expects his rushing numbers and pass volume to come down compared to prior years, with Kansas City projected at 42 total offensive touchdowns (middle of the pack, creeping toward top 12).

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PositiveValue6:41

At QB 14 ADP in single-quarterback formats, Mahomes offers value relative to his projection; the source expects him to return to elite form with Eric Bieniemy back and Kenneth Walker in the run game, though notes the Chiefs didn't add enough receiving talent around him. Projected to average 18 points per game with upside to reach 20 PPG and top-five quarterback status.

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PositiveValue21:33

The source prefers paying a bit more for Mahomes over Tyler Shuck because of his safe floor; while his ceiling and weapons aren't ideal, Mahomes has the ability to 'pull a rabbit out of his hat' and create production despite limitations.

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NegativeProjection25:04

Mahomes sits at ADP 109 and is a close comp to Brock Purdy (ADP 101). Last year he posted 208 pass attempts, 2,167 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game.

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NegativeValue29:58

Priced at QB 14 in dynasty/NFFC, just behind Brock Purdy (QB 13) in the quarterback rankings. This positioning suggests Purdy is being valued ahead of Mahomes in the current market.

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PositiveValue33:12

One of four must-draft quarterbacks outside the elite tier; source highlights him as part of a value-oriented quarterback strategy where you don't pay through the nose; can be paired with Rashad Rice to create synergy in team construction.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeRole6:09

Coming off injury and legal issues (jail time), the source expresses concern that he came out rusty and didn't add much to the Chiefs' receiving room, contributing to overall concerns about offensive depth.

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Ricky Pearsall

NegativeRole29:08

Described as a huge wild card in the 49ers offense. Health is a major concern (source notes 'if Ricky Pearsall can stay healthy, which is a big if'). If healthy, Pearsall is expected to step up as a key receiver opposite Mike Evans, filling the void left by Brandon Aiyuk's departure.

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NegativeRole31:26

Opposite Mike Evans in the 49ers offense; described as a huge wild card with upside if he can put it together, but contingent on his ability to develop alongside Evans.

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Travis Kelce

NegativeRole6:09

The source expresses concern about Kelce getting older and questions whether the Chiefs added enough offensive weapons around him; this is cited as a reason for caution on Mahomes' ceiling despite his talent.

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NegativeProjection6:41

The source projects a 'dead cat bounce season' for Kelce, indicating expected regression from recent performance despite Mahomes' return; this reflects concern about his aging trajectory and the Chiefs' failure to add receiving talent around the quarterback.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection8:48

In year two of Liam Cohen's offense, Lawrence posted his best NFL season: 560 pass attempts, 4,000 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 9 rushing touchdowns, 20.6 fantasy points per game. The source projects even better performance in year two, with Jacksonville's offense projected for 43.4 total offensive touchdowns (more than Kansas City) and Lawrence at 29 passing touchdowns. Rushing touchdown projection adjusted to 3 (down from 9 last year), though source acknowledges argument for 5.

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PositiveProjection10:07

Projected at 18.5 fantasy points per game, ahead of Patrick Mahomes in the source's rankings. Last year he scored 20.6 fantasy points per game (top five in NFL), and the source believes the ceiling remains there given the Jaguars' offensive weapons and favorable divisional weather setup (two dome teams, warm climate year-round).

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NegativeProjection10:07

Projected at 325 rushing yards and 69 rushing attempts (approximately 4.5 attempts per game) in 2026, down from nine rushing touchdowns last year to three projected rushing touchdowns. The source attributes the touchdown decline to red zone competition from Chris Rodriguez and Bashal Tootin, and believes offensive coordinator Liam Cohen may pull back on rushing inside the red zone after reviewing the season.

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NegativeValue10:31

Going off the board at ADP 86 overall, making him the most expensive quarterback discussed in this segment. Ranked QB9 in NFFC scoring, described as a back-end QB1, though the source notes he could fall in drafts. In NFFC, he goes in round six.

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PositiveUsage13:12

The Jaguars have 260 vacated carries and 126 vacated targets from last year. The source is curious whether the vacated carries will flow to the pass game in 2026, particularly with tight end Brenton Strange now on the roster, which could open up the middle of the field for Lawrence and convert some rushing opportunities into passing plays.

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PositiveProjection27:03

Lawrence is the source's favorite quarterback among those discussed today. He averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game last year and has a higher ceiling than Brock Purdy, though the source notes points-per-game projection doesn't always capture ceiling. The source acknowledges uncertainty around his second year in the offense but sees upside.

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PositiveValue33:12

One of four must-draft quarterbacks outside the elite tier; source highlights him as part of a value-oriented quarterback strategy where you don't pay through the nose and can still build the scaffold of your team while maintaining optionality.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeRole6:09

Has not shown what was expected; the source notes he's shown what he can do and it's not matching expectations, contributing to concerns about the depth of the Chiefs' receiving corps.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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1:36The quarterback landscape has shifted this offseason. In 2026, less quarterbacks are being drafted at the top of the board in fantasy football drafts.
1:43Today, Jeremiah and myself are going to go over four quarterbacks being drafted rounds 7 to 10 that we think you should
1:51be targeting in fantasy football right here on Player Profiler.
1:54What is going on, folks? This year, only one quarterback going inside the top 36.
1:59It is Josh Allen. You had a lot of quarterbacks, Jeremiah, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels.
2:04You know, these are all guys that were drafted high last year that missed time and were not inside the top five
2:11when it comes to points for fantasy football. So, you know, people have kind of adjusted their strategy, their process.
2:18You seem to be, and myself as well, two guys that are not drafting quarterbacks high because we do see a lot of value.
2:26So, who's the number one quarterback for you that you feel like is at a really good price that you're looking to
2:33draft if you're not taking one of those elite quarterbacks?
2:36Well, it's funny. The barbell strategy with tight end where you go early or late with quarterback is compressing to the middle, Pete.
2:44And one of those quarterbacks for me is Patrick Mahomes in the Dynasty Streets.
2:48He'll be a back end QB1 to early QB2.
2:51In NFFC, as we're approaching redraft, Pete, single quarterback round eight.
2:55Patrick Mahomes, he sounds like he should be chalked, but he's getting disrespected price-wise.
2:59Not quite in the elite tier of quarterbacks. Seven seasons with 4,000 passing yards.
3:04Two where Mahomes hit 5K. He was below his career low, had been 3,928 passing yards.
3:09Last year he had 3,528, which was a low, but that's because he missed three games.
3:14You get another three games for Patrick Mahomes and we're adding another tally to his 4,000 passing yard seasons.
3:21Six rushing seasons of 300 rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes.
3:24He's only missed five games due to injury. He's been throwing at the OTAs all in the offseason.
3:30He tours ACL at the end of 2025. The two players that come to mind, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady for recovery.
3:37It's something that can happen. And with Burrow and Brady, those are two players that you have to drag off the field.
3:44That mentality applies to Patrick Mahomes. I expect him to be out there.
3:48Week 1 versus your Denver Broncos. And it's just an advantageous opportunity being reunited with Eric Biennemi.
3:54I think that's not being discussed enough. And whatever we feel about the cast of characters and the depth of fantasy players
4:01beyond Travis Kelsey, Rashi Rice, Kenneth Walker, we don't think there's much depth with the Chiefs.
4:06This still is Andy Reid, Eric Biennemi, and Patrick Mahomes utilizing this.
4:10So I think he's one of those better options as you get past the early elite players.
4:15Like if you miss on a Josh Allen, you can go and get a Patrick Mahomes.
4:21So both in the dynasty and the redraft streets, that's what I'm seeing, Pete.
4:25What do you think of that? Yeah. Yeah. Kansas City, this is an interesting team.
4:30I have them at a 55% pass rate, which is lower than what they've seen, what we've seen over the last few years.
4:38And I think a big part of that is you mentioned, Eric Biennemi's back.
4:42They did bring in Kenneth Walker. I do think they're going to want to run the football more than what we saw in years prior.
4:50I do think we see more efficiency. I do think the volume comes down though, right?
4:56We're not going to see as many passes. I don't think, you know, I think it's a combination of the injury plus,
5:03you know, the more balanced attack than years past, I think will mean Mahomes' rushing numbers come down a little bit, as
5:10well as his amount of passes that he throws and the volume comes down as well.
5:15You know, I have this team projected, you know, sitting at, let's see, a total of 42 offensive touchdowns this year, which
5:22places them kind of like middle of the package, like creeping up on top 12, but not there.
5:28I think that's pretty fair, pretty reasonable. I have them for 16 rushing touchdowns though, too.
5:33I have Mahomes throwing for 28 touchdowns this year.
5:36I do think he's going to be back week one, just like you said.
5:41I have Mahomes projected at 18 fantasy points per game.
5:44That kind of brings him into that low quarterback one area, but possibly getting close to that mid QB one area as well.
5:52With Mahomes, we know that the ability is there to pop off, right?
5:56He was great last year when you look at his stats, 21.2 fantasy points per game, right?
6:01He was on a tear to have pretty much one of his best seasons in fantasy football that he's had in a few years.
6:09So that was encouraging to see. But my concern and curiosity is another year, Travis Kelsey getting older.
6:15Xavier Worthy still has not really shown what he can do, or I guess has shown us what he can do.
6:22And it's not what it was expected to be.
6:25Then you have Rashi Rice who coming off that injury, spent time in jail because he come out rusty.
6:31It just really didn't add much to this room.
6:34Now you do have Cyrus Allen, who has become somewhat of a target that people have talked about this year.
6:41He's kind of interesting. I just worry that they didn't add enough to this room, Jeremiah.
6:46And they also added to the run game, right?
6:49With Eric B. Enemi coming back and Walker. So I don't have him projected like, hey, he has QB one upside.
6:56But I do think top five is possible. You know, and at his 18 points per game, you know, that's kind of
7:03a, you know, you know that there's also wiggle room for that to get close to that 20 points per game.
7:10And if he gets there, you're talking top five quarterback status.
7:13So that's where I have my homes. Do you have any pushback on any of that?
7:18Or is that kind of similar to how you see the situation for him as well?
7:24Well, it's agreeable and accurate to his ADP with being the QB 14 off the board in single quarterback formats.
7:30You're getting that price for paying that price with the projections that you laid out.
7:35And you astutely pointed out that Kenneth Walker is going to demand.
7:39So if we see more of the vessel of this offense through the run game, we will see some regression.
7:45But I'm betting on one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes coming back and not just picking up where he left off with Eric the enemy.
7:55I see a dead cat bounce season for Travis Kelsey.
7:58The one spot where it is very lean is the receiving positions, the depth scaffolded.
8:03You mentioned Cyrus Allen. That is not enough. And maybe we'll see.
8:07There was interest in A.J. Brown. Maybe it could be a Stefan Diggs.
8:11But they have not done enough to give more talent to Patrick Mahomes, which is kind of funny because we've always talked about it for Josh Allen.
8:20And no one's going to cry for Patrick Mahomes not having enough support around him.
8:25But I do think there's a degree of resting on their laurels where the Chiefs could have done a lot more to acquire.
8:32So I agree and understand the sentiment on the pushback there.
8:36But based on the price at QB 14, I think you're going to get value back with Patrick Mahomes.
8:42Now, Pete, who's your first quarterback that you're trying to eye at value?
8:46Yeah, for me, it's Trevor Lawrence. And I've talked about Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars offense a good amount.
8:52And there's some concern with the offense, right? I mean, people are hesitant on who to draft, who's worth their price with the wide receivers, the running backs.
9:01And one thing I can say that I feel extremely confident about is Trevor Lawrence, right?
9:07I mean, you know, you can push back and argue about which wide receiver to take.
9:12Is Bachel Tutank ranked? Is he going high enough?
9:15Is Brenton Strange going, you know, too low? But one thing I can say is year two in Liam Cohen's offense, we
9:22saw the best version of Trevor Lawrence that we've ever seen when he's gotten to the NFL.
9:28Just look at some of his stats last year.
9:31560 pass attempts, 4,000 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 9 rushing touchdowns, 20.6 fantasy points per game.
9:36It was the best fantasy season that we've seen, best NFL season we've seen.
9:40And I expect year two in this offense for him to be even better.
9:45When I just look at, you know, my projections so far for this offense for Jacksonville, I have been projected for 43.4
9:52total offensive touchdowns, which is more than Kansas City, 29 passing touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence, 14.2 total rushing touchdowns for the entire offense.
10:00And when I look at Trevor Lawrence and I look at some of his numbers, right, last year he ran for nine touchdowns.
10:07I don't have him running in nine touchdowns again.
10:10I have him at three touchdowns rushing. Could absolutely see if someone wants to make the argument and say, hey, it should be closer to five.
10:18Let's meet in the middle since he had nine last year.
10:22But I put him at three. I think Chris Rodriguez, Bashal Tootin, those guys are good enough down at the red zone
10:29that they will get looks down there. And I don't know that Liam Cohen's going to want to – I think he's
10:36going to look back at the season and say, okay, I know who I have.
10:41I know what I've got with Trevor Lawrence now.
10:44You know, we had a season in my offense.
10:47Let's kind of pull back a little bit on that rushing inside the red zone.
10:52So I still think the rushing is going to be there, though, for Trevor Lawrence.
10:57I have him at 325 rushing yards on the year.
11:00And, Jeremiah, I have met 69 rushing attempts this year, which brings him close to four and a half rushing attempts a
11:07game, which I think is pretty solid. That's kind of what you want for a guy that's like not that Jaden Daniels,
11:15Lamar Jackson, but he's rushing four, maybe five times a game and giving you a floor of an extra point or two
11:22just off of the rushing upside alone. And when you look at him, I have him projected at 18.5 fantasy points per game.
11:29He's going off the board at 86 right now.
11:32He's the most expensive guy that we're going to talk about today.
11:36But even at 86, I mean, this is a quarterback when you looked at him last year, 20.6 fantasy points per game.
11:43That was top five in the NFL for fantasy football.
11:47And so I definitely see the possibility of the ceiling being there for Trevor Lawrence.
11:51It's an offense that plays in a division that has two teams that play in domes as well as Tennessee Titans who play in good weather.
12:00And then you have the Jacksonville Jaguars, which outside of the mugginess, the swampiness of that area, it's pretty warm year round
12:07there, at least for the NFL season. So I'm excited for Trevor Lawrence.
12:11I think he's on track to continue and build off what he did last year.
12:16Again, 18.5. I have him ahead of Mahomes in my projections.
12:20I just think the weapons are there. The setup is there for Lawrence to build on what he did last year.
12:27Well, hopefully, Pete, we can get him beyond just the four, four and a half carries per game and into the five and six carry range.
12:35Funny enough, when I look at Tyler Shuck, who, you know, teaser I'll talk about a little bit later, with three rushes
12:42per game, my mentality and thought was, can Tyler Shuck go up to five and six?
12:48Can he double that, essentially? And we've already seen the trend where Trevor Lawrence kind of follows that.
12:53If Shuck can follow that rushing output for Trevor Lawrence, that'll be an ascension that we like.
12:59Back to your point, though, being one of the most expensive.
13:03QB 9 right now, somewhat of a back end QB 1, especially if he falls in drafts.
13:08But that's over at NFFC in round six for Trevor Lawrence.
13:12Something to note, 260 vacated carries last year for the Jaguars and 126 vacated targets.
13:17So I'm very curious, Pete, if you see the vacated carries flowing over to the pass game.
13:22And one note and bookmark that question while I break off.
13:26We've been talking about Parker Washington ascending. But I do wonder, and I am curious, if having Brenton Strange is going to
13:33be a lot more middle of the field open for Trevor Lawrence, where those carries that are vacated become a lot more passes in 2026.
13:41Last six games, 10 red zone targets. So we're talking about touchdown equity for Strange.
13:46Six in yards per target. 19 yards per reception at 11.7 was Strange.
13:5018 yards per route run at 1.81. This is like a very discounted version of Tucker Craft and Colson Loveland that I think has been buried.
13:59So curious, Pete, what's your thoughts on that ascension for the diversion of, hey, we've lost Travis Etienne, Ron and Chris Rodriguez.
14:06You see the passing game ascending a little bit more in that benefiting, of course, fantasy points wise, Trevor Lawrence.
14:12Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, pass attempts wise, he averaged 32.9 per game last year.
14:18I have him set for 32 again this year.
14:21He's actually six in the NFL for total pass attempts.
14:24That's not pass attempts per game, though. That's just overall total passing attempts.
14:28I could see it going up a little bit for him.
14:32The one thing I'm curious to see is the play action rate.
14:3628th in the NFL last year for Trevor Lawrence.
14:39Do they try to, you know, maybe establish to run even more, which is kind of the flip side of what you're saying.
14:46But it also equals out to being more efficiency because of that play action.
14:51And honestly, sometimes they've even said like play action teams that don't even aren't even good at running the football.
14:57Play action still, you know, provides a boost to the offense, even for teams that are not that great at running the football.
15:05So I'd like to see that this year. But yeah, I mean, it's definitely a good question to ask.
15:11I think we stay pretty much similar to what we saw last year.
15:1532 games is pretty decent. It's pretty fair. I could see it maybe going up a little bit or down a little
15:22bit, but not enough to really swing my thoughts on him or swing my projection or points per game difference for him.
15:30Let's go ahead and move over to your next quarterback, your final quarterback.
15:34And it's going to be Tyler Shuck. Tyler Shuck of the Saints rookie last year coming in.
15:39Why do you have Tyler Shuck here? He's ADP is 126 on NFC.
15:44He's the lowest guy that we're going to talk about today.
15:47Yeah, going off as QB 18 P is Tyler Shuck.
15:51So I went with a chalk player and a not so chalk player, somebody who I see rising and ascending.
15:57It's a mid-level price QB two over on NFFC, especially if you've developed your whole team and you're pushing quarterback down.
16:04And hey, I miss Trevor Lawrence. I miss Brock Purdy.
16:07I miss Patrick Mahomes. There is a firewall ability with somebody like Tyler Shuck.
16:12From offensive perspective, Spencer Rattler and Chris Alave, a plus 63 EPA for show versus a mere plus 2.8 EPA for Rattler involving the Saints offense.
16:20So this is great for Chris Alave. It's great for middle of the field open Jordan Tyson.
16:26Coaches are talking about the utility that Jordan Tyson offers over the middle of the field for Tyler Shuck.
16:32So when we start to see intermediate, short and deep passes being somewhat of a strength for Tyler Shuck, I think that's
16:39just going to be layered to the effect of the talent that surrounds him.
16:44Kind of like Bo Nix is buoyed up by Sean Payton's system and the talent that surrounded Bo Nix has helped Bo Nix.
16:51I see that affording because it's not like Tyler Shuck was some elite prospect.
16:56I think the scaffolding, the environment for Tyler Shuck is also what helps him.
17:00You're bringing in, just as we talked about Trevor Lawrence, you're bringing in Travis Etienne in addition.
17:06Okay. You're able to get Bryce Lance in round four.
17:09Not enough people are talking about the speed that's there.
17:12So there's plenty of forwarded Oscar Delt, more two tight end looks with Juwan Johnson.
17:17I'm very excited about Tyler Shuck. He had a 103 passer rating on third downs, 67% accuracy.
17:23So God knows who gets busted for completion percentage all the time and is one of the top elite quarterbacks in the
17:30NFL that we're all projecting in fantasy. Caleb Williams.
17:33Tyler Shuck doesn't have that problem. Ten full games played last year.
17:37I know it says 11, but real significant snap share.
17:40Five games out of 10, a QB1 in fantasy football.
17:43You had seen on the graphic 14.9 fancy points per game.
17:47I think that's going to go into the higher teams.
17:50And the neat thing, 238 passing yards per game last year.
17:54Extrabulate 10 to 17. Again, this is projecting help.
17:57You have yourself a sneaky Pete 4,000 yard passing season by Tyler Shuck.
18:01And three touchdowns, rushing, can that double in the 17 game sample?
18:05Can we get four games, as I mentioned before, to turn into six?
18:09Four carries a game to six. Get those rushing numbers up.
18:1318.6 rushing yards per game. Again, extrapolate that out to 17 and it's 316 rushing yards.
18:18So the path and the layout is there, both by the surrounding talent.
18:22And the beauty is you're paying quarterback 18 price in a single quarterback league.
18:27And in these high stakes or in your redraft, you get Chris Alave.
18:31What a stacking pairing partner with Tyler Shuck. And not to mention Jordan Tyson, who everything about his hamstring, going back, it
18:38was like scheduled load management maintenance when he was sitting out in mini camps.
18:43And it's come out that he's fully healthy right now.
18:46You're not going to want to miss out on Jordan Tyson, this entire Saints offense.
18:51That includes, topical to what we're talking about, Pete, Tyler Shuck.
18:55Yeah, and Tyler Shuck is an interesting one. When you just look at their projections on the season, this is an offense that is affordable, right?
19:03I think that's the best way to put it in some way, shape, or form, right?
19:08You have Chris Alave is the most expensive piece in the offense.
19:12I think he's worth his cost. Then you have Travis Etienne, who's starting to kind of dip a little bit in price
19:19because the Kamara news that he's staying, which I think most people that were plugged into that situation knew he was going to stay.
19:27So I'm surprised the market has reacted as much as it has to Etienne's price dropping because of it.
19:33Then you have Jordan Tyson. And then you have Tyler Shuck, right?
19:37Shuck's the fourth most expensive player in this offense.
19:40And he goes well beyond pick 100 at pick 126.
19:43This is a fair price for a guy that we think is in an offense that can ascend, right?
19:50I think, of course, there's some concern where maybe sophomore slump and maybe it was just a flash in the pan for
19:57Shuck last year where he came in and looked really good and people were surprised.
20:02But it doesn't seem like the Saints were that surprised, right?
20:05They took him pretty decently high in the draft and then they kind of doubled down by supporting him by bringing in
20:12Travis Etienne, by bringing in Bryce Lance, by bringing in Jordan Tyson, Oscar Delprey, all these weapons to pretty much say, hey,
20:20we trust and we believe in this guy and we want to give him every opportunity to succeed before we decide, hey,
20:27maybe next year they go out and they draft a quarterback if things kind of fall off this year.
20:33So I think the risk is definitely worth the reward with the rushing upside, with the legs, playing in a division that doesn't have very good defenses.
20:42You have the Buccaneers, you have the Panthers, you know, you have the Falcons.
20:46Falcons defense is going to be better this year.
20:49I think Saints defense is going to be better.
20:52Bucs defense is kind of trending up a little bit and so are the Panthers, but these are still defenses that I
20:59don't expect any of them to be in the top 10.
21:03A lot of dome games, good weather. So all that to say that this is an offense that is definitely one of
21:10the lower tier offenses when you just factor in what their total output for the season is going to be.
21:17I have met 37.1 fantasy total offense touchdowns. I have Shuck throwing just 22 touchdowns, but the rushing upside is there.
21:24It can kind of make up for the lack of touchdowns and we have seen him use his legs.
21:30So I expect to see that again going forward this season.
21:33So yeah, I think at this price, at this cost, I like Shuck.
21:38I prefer some guys a little bit ahead of him.
21:41I'd rather just probably pay a little bit more of an expensive cost for like a Mahomes because we know that the floor is going to be safe.
21:50And while the ceiling and the weapons aren't nearly what we want them to be, we also know Mahomes can maybe pull
21:57a rabbit out of his hat and still kind of make lemonade with limes.
22:02Chicken salad, add a chicken, you know what. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
22:05Well, how about the names that you were talking about, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, would you take those three quarterbacks over Tyler Shuck?
22:13I would. I would. Now, it's all relative to what's on the board though, right?
22:18I mean, in some situations you might be sitting there and say, man, you know, I need one of these, like Rashad
22:26White sitting there at his ADP in the early hundreds and you need running back help and you like him this year.
22:33And maybe you say, you know what, I'm going to take him.
22:37I don't think Shuck is going to be that far off from maybe these other guys.
22:42So that could be the angle that you take.
22:45I still probably prefer Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield just because I like the weapons in the offense more.
22:51I also just like the team better, the situation better.
22:54Bo Nix with best offensive line in football with Sean Payton just getting Waddle.
22:59Baker, we saw him have a great season and then obviously he hurt himself.
23:03So this is all not to poo-poo on Tyler Shock.
23:07I think if you are taking, you know, I think it's more to just highlight the fact that you can wait this
23:14late on a quarterback and still get really, really nice value.
23:17I just would maybe prefer, you know, those guys going around him.
23:21Even Jared Goff, who's been a quarterback one, but nobody wants to touch him and has a phenomenal schedule this year.
23:28Hey, say Jared Goff 10 times very fast. With Tyler Shuck, it's still wish casting at this point.
23:34As much as I love him, there is a degree.
23:37We have to admit in fantasy football, there's players that we like and love, be it Christian Watson.
23:43We're still wish casting that he's going to be healthy for an entire season.
23:48We know what he can do within an entire season.
23:51So with Tyler Shuck, we are projecting. And to your point with those players, we've proven and there's better infrastructure from a
23:58coaching lens, although it's catching up New Orleans to Denver.
24:01But as you mentioned, Jalen Waddle, the hype and excitement is all there.
24:06And then Baker Mayfield, what's not to love about, hey, Mike Evans is gone, but guess what?
24:11You got Jalen McMillan and we're going to go out and draft Ted Hurst.
24:16We're going to invest in the receiver position. Of course, you had the round one investment in the Mecca of Bucca last year.
24:23So they're fine to circle the wagons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to keep resupplying a good offensive environment.
24:29Ironically, the Buccaneers, Saints are in the same division.
24:32So yeah, that's Tyler Shuck there. But tell us, Pete, Brock Purdy, why should drafters come away with him?
24:38What's his value? What do you love about him?
24:41Yeah. And keeping in mind, right, like this is a show where, yeah, we're going to have some disagreements, right?
24:48I mean, we have the ability to choose any of these guys, right?
24:52And you jumped on the opportunity to draft Shuck, right?
24:55And you jumped on it with Mahomes. We actually didn't even argue too much, which tells us that we see some things a little bit different here, right?
25:04Purdy and Mahomes are probably the closest comps because Purdy is at an ADP of 101 right now, while Mahomes sits at 109.
25:12You look at some of what he did last year, 208 pass attempts, 2,167 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, 20.8 fantasy points per game.
25:21I want to get into it, but I do need to take a quick pause because we don't want to miss out that.
25:28We do need to take a quick break to pay the bills and we'll come right back.
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26:57So as we were talking about Brock Purdy, you know, going off the board of ADP 101, Purdy is interesting because as
27:04I'm sitting here, I'm looking at my points per game projection for Purdy.
27:08I actually have Purdy projected at 19 points per game, which would actually be the highest projection I have for all these quarterbacks.
27:16Even Trevor Lawrence, who I talked about how he is my favorite quarterback out of all these guys that we talked about today.
27:23The points per game is not always going to, you know, from a projection standpoint.
27:28It also doesn't always bake in what the ceiling is.
27:31And I do think Trevor Lawrence has a higher ceiling than Purdy, but Purdy still has a good ceiling, right?
27:3820.8 fantasy points per game. You look at Lawrence, 20.6 fantasy points per game.
27:42So we saw the ceilings for both of these guys somewhat last year.
27:47I just think with Lawrence, we haven't seen him in a second year in this offense where with Purdy, we have seen,
27:54we know what to expect in this offense. Mike Evans is coming too.
27:58So that adds a little bit more ceiling there, but we don't know what kills.
28:03So there's some, there's some things there, some question marks, obviously in both sides, both rooms.
28:08But when I talk about Purdy, I look at him.
28:11I haven't projected for 28 passing touchdowns this year.
28:14I expect this offense to still be very good.
28:174,662 passing yards is what I have Purdy projected this year, which honestly is, is going to be up there with, with the highest in the NFL.
28:26I don't think that's that far out of the question.
28:29I do have him projected at 15 interceptions. So there's a possibility that, you know, that he doesn't throw that many and,
28:36and that points per game can go even a little bit higher, but I have him for 8.4 yards per passing attempt.
28:44I am throwing 30 times per game. I'm running a decent amount here, Jeremiah 58.8 times.
28:49So total of 263 rushing attempts. I haven't going into the end zone two times this season, but looking at this offense, Mike Evans coming in.
28:57I'm excited about it. I think arguably the receivers this year, the offense this year, Jeremiah, I mean, it's better than it was probably last year.
29:06If Ricky Pearsall can stay healthy, which is a big if, right?
29:10If George Kittle can come back. And I think the thing with Kittle too, Jeremiah, is he doesn't have to be the receiver.
29:17He can be a dominant blocker while he kind of works his way back.
29:22Um, and still be very effective for this offense.
29:25Um, and then obviously you have McCaffrey, but, uh, you also have Christian Kirk.
29:29You have Stribbling who some are saying best wide receiver in this draft class.
29:34I don't necessarily know about that one, but, um, I'm excited for Brock Purdy.
29:38I'm excited for the offense. Um, we know what to expect with this offense.
29:43It feels like a very safe pick. And Purdy is very Jared Gauth-esque, uh, Jeremiah, not a sexy player, not a hot pick.
29:50No one's like dying to go get this guy because the rushing upside doesn't feel like it's there, but he's just a
29:58guy that consistently does it when he's healthy and he's got, got his weapons around him.
30:03So, um, yeah, I think Purdy is a phenomenal pick right now at his ADP of 101.
30:08Well, Brock Purdy perpetually priced in dynasty and in the redraft streets at QB 13, NFFC QB 13, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes, who was QB 14.
30:17Round seven ADP for Brock Purdy. You'd love to see it for him.
30:21And the thing about the 49ers, they're old, they're fragile.
30:25Our signature trend on our draft kit, the average age of the starting skill position players for the 49ers when the season
30:32kicks off is going to be 30. You mentioned it.
30:35Mike Evans comes to town. We've got an older Christian McCaffrey, but they're still hoopers and they're still ballers.
30:41And depending on the week, it's week one, five, 10.
30:45You just put yourself on your couch, cracking a beer, watching the game.
30:49If Mike Evans is lacing him up, Christian McCaffrey is lacing them up.
30:53Nobody's accounting for, Oh, you know what? Hey man, you, since you're 31 years of age, it's not going to work out on this route.
31:01No, it's going to be Mike Evans and Christian McCaffrey domination.
31:05You have a little bit of influx underneath with Christian Kirk, even though that doesn't move the needle.
31:11I think it just gives some depth layered to this 49ers offense.
31:15They attack stripping in round two, whether they should or shouldn't have.
31:19It's another seat in the chair that they have for them.
31:22You mentioned Ricky Pearsall, a huge wild card and all this.
31:26We know Brandon and I use days are over.
31:29So you really do hope opposite Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall can really put it together.
31:34Kalen black goes in round three. He'll be irrelevant.
31:37Everyone. Jordan James will be irrelevant, shy of getting out of the way Christian McCaffrey from something like an injury.
31:43I love Brock Purdy. I think he's a great pick for you and Kyle Shanahan, the way they designed this offense, everything
31:50is lining up correctly for the 49ers. George Kittle.
31:53Yes. Do you want to call him George brittle?
31:56Cause he's hurt often. He can get back on the field.
32:00He's always been fancy points per game. You know, you mentioned maybe needing more blocking, but Pete.
32:05From rank two to six at tight end and fancy points per game perpetually year in, year out when he's healthy, George
32:12Kittle, just a great value play right now. So I like where your head's at a little bit of a discount because
32:20of the fact that you can get these players a little bit cheaper.
32:24Granted, Christian McCaffrey is a round one pick, but the rest of the different spots, all very affordable in both dynasty and in redraft.
32:32So great picks today, Pete. I really like how you have Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes for me and Tyler Shuck.
32:39The cool theme is it's that compressing and we're not paying through the nose on these players.
32:44We can still build the scaffold of our teams.
32:47And then you have optionality. You had mentioned it.
32:50Hey, depending on maybe you need Rashad White here, you wait and then get a quarterback later.
32:56Well, part of it might be you have Christian McCaffrey and you want to pair him with Brock Purdy.
33:02You have a Rashi Rice and you want to go get Mahomes.
33:06You built and clicked on Olave or Tyson and you go and get Tyler Shuck.
33:11All those things can factor and play into the bills that you have.
33:15And Pete, I gotta say, these are four good quarterbacks that our listeners are equipped with.
33:20So please like subscribe, give the five star on the podcast and leave good comments.
33:25Let us know what you think. What quarterbacks are you valuing in that pocket?
33:30Late round, late quarterback one, early quarterback two. Who do you have?
33:34From the podfather to you, I deeply appreciate you tuning in.
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