Mind of Mansion - Josh Downs and Jayden Reed: Upside WR2s
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 40 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 4, 2026
Published
Thu, June 4, 2026
34
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonDak PrescottJalen HurtsParker WashingtonA.J. BrownBaker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersC.J. StroudCarnell TateCeeDee LambChris OlaveDrake MayeEli Stowers
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection0:36
AJ Brown is now a Patriot and should be drafted in the middle of the second round as a wide receiver eight, comparable to Nico Collins in terms of draft positioning.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection0:15
Baker Mayfield is in a similar conversation with Dak Prescott in dynasty, though the analyst believes there is a genuine tier gap between Dak and Baker.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeValue0:23
Brian Thomas Jr. went two full rounds earlier than Parker Washington in a startup draft, representing a reach given the uncertainty around his snap share in two-receiver sets and the Jaguars' shift toward more tight-end usage.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue0:09
In a tight end premium league (2X PPR for tight ends), the analyst took Brock Bowers at 1.04, viewing him as one of the great sources of value in dynasty. Last year was described as pathetic with an incompetent offensive line and no receivers, but this year presents significant upside.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection0:15
CJ Stroud was selected after Dak Prescott in the startup draft and is mentioned as part of the tier of elite quarterbacks that belong in dynasty.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue0:11
Carnell Tate went ahead of Spencer Mendoza in three straight startup drafts, which the analyst finds interesting and attributes to psychological draft dynamics where people play chicken with the quarterback position.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection0:30
CeeDee Lamb doesn't have the same defensive investment concerns as Puka Nakua because the Cowboys have the worst defense and will be dialing up 600 pass attempts, making him a more attractive option than Puka Nakua at a similar position.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection0:38
Chris Olave is viewed as a surefire top 12 wide receiver and is similar in profile to Devante Smith, though Devante Smith is undervalued relative to Olave.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection0:16
Christian Watson is a top 20 wide receiver or better if healthy, with astounding upside based on his cost in both dynasty and redraft. Last year he put up 17.5 yards per reception, nearly 1,000 air yards in only 10 games while recovering from an ACL tear, with 13.2 fantasy points per game on just 55 targets.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:21
Christian Watson is available around round seven in dynasty drafts, representing value at the wide receiver position.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection0:15
Despite being selected late in the startup draft, Dak Prescott is viewed as a slam dunk smash in dynasty. The analyst believes he will play until age 38 similar to Matthew Stafford and is likely to have a great 2026 season before signing another big extension.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Dak Prescott is expected to have a great 2026 season and will likely secure another big extension from Dallas, making him a valuable late-round dynasty pick at round six in super flex despite being 32 years old.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:36
Drake May remains at quarterback two in both redraft and dynasty following the AJ Brown trade, as the move doesn't significantly change his projection.
Insight pageEli Stowers
PositiveBreakout0:39
Eli Stowers is an elite athletic prospect with a 147.1 burst score (highest ever recorded) and is ranked as the rookie tight end one in dynasty, ahead of Kenyon Sadiq despite lower draft capital, due to superior route-running ability.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeRole0:05
The analyst believes people are overstating the excitement for Isaiah Likely in the Giants offense, noting that the coach had him in a timeshare for his entire career and Theo Johnson was one of Jackson Dart's best targets last year.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection0:16
Jalen Hurts is mentioned as one of the quarterbacks that went off the board in the startup draft before the value tier dropped significantly.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:37
Jalen Hurts is slightly hurt by the AJ Brown trade due to existing concerns about his longevity in Philadelphia and efficiency in passing the ball.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveRole0:17
Jordan Love has an excellent rapport with Christian Watson that is better than anyone else on the team. Love has the arm and confidence to hit Watson regularly over the middle and on play action rollouts.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveRole0:39
Jordan Tyson is mentioned as one of several receivers competing for targets in the Eagles offense alongside Devante Smith.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection0:31
Justin Jefferson is in for a massive bounce back with Kyler Murray at quarterback, and is ranked ahead of Puka Nakua in wide receiver rankings due to being in a passing offense.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
NegativeValue0:41
Kenyon Sadiq is ranked behind Eli Stowers in dynasty rookie tight end rankings despite going in the first round, as Stowers is viewed as a better route runner.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveProjection0:37
Makai Lemon is ranked as wide receiver 34 and benefits from the AJ Brown trade, gaining more opportunity in the Eagles offense.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury0:03
Nabers had to go back in for a cleanup procedure on his leg injury, which means less time for him to strengthen it and get flexibility back. The analyst does not expect Nabers to produce at a confident fantasy level until November.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue0:37
Nico Collins is ranked alongside AJ Brown as a player who needs to be drafted early in redraft, indicating strong value at the wide receiver position.
Insight pageOscar Delp
PositiveRole0:39
Oscar Delp is mentioned as one of several receivers competing for targets in the Eagles offense alongside Devante Smith.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue0:19
Parker Washington is expected to receive a contract extension soon, similar to how Dak Prescott's value will increase once he signs his next deal. Once the extension is announced, everyone will recognize him as the Seahawks' wide receiver one.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:21
Parker Washington's fantasy production ceiling may have already been hit due to the Jaguars adding multiple tight ends (Nate Borkutcher, Tanner Koziel) and potentially shifting to more two-tight-end sets, which could reduce his snap share and target opportunities.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeProjection0:29
Puka Nakua's projection should be dialed back slightly due to the Rams investing heavily in defense (signing Miles Garrett), which may lead to fewer pass attempts, and he doesn't play in 13 personnel where the Rams have been most efficient.
Insight pageRicky Pearsall
PositiveSleeper0:25
Ricky Pearsall is a preferred upside play over Parker Washington, though both carry similar usage uncertainties and Pearsall has injury durability concerns.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
NegativeBust0:36
Romeo Dobbs should be viewed as a wide receiver five on fantasy rosters, not a viable fantasy option.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveRole0:39
Travis Etienne is mentioned as one of several receivers competing for targets in the Eagles offense alongside Devante Smith.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
NegativeRole0:23
Travis Hunter's role in the Jaguars offense remains uncertain, but the easiest place to deploy him is in the slot, which could further compress Parker Washington's snap share and ceiling.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveRole0:17
Tucker Kraft is mentioned as a good target for Jordan Love in the Packers offense, though the analyst's primary focus is on Christian Watson's upside.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
PositiveValue0:05
Tyrone Tracy is the only player the analyst is interested in from the Giants offense, calling him an awesome handcuff with standalone value as a pass catcher. He's described as one of the best one-for-one true handcuffs in the NFL.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:57This, this is the Mind of Mansion podcast. I'm here today with Alfredo Brown from Pretend GM, one of the most popular
1:04new podcasts that exists for fantasy football. We have a lot to talk about.
1:08AJ Brown is now officially a Patriot. Odell Beckham is officially a Giant again.
1:12Miles Garrett is a Ram and that could matter for fantasy football.
1:16We'll talk about that. And I'm seeing Luther Burden go higher and higher and higher and the question is how soon before
1:23Luther Burden is being drafted ahead of Roma Dunes A.
1:26I'm going to ask my man, Mr. Alfredo Brown, all these questions and many more on the Mind of Mansion program.
1:33We could kick it off anywhere. I can't believe it.
1:36It's June 1, June 2, June 3, June 4.
1:39This is the time when every fantasy gamer is taking vacation.
1:42And yet here goes the NFL giving us something to talk about.
1:46Thank you very much. Bombshell trade news, bombshell news in the free agent market.
1:50Odell Beckham Jr. Odell Beckham Jr. is a Giant.
1:53We should, let's start there. Let's just start there.
1:56Not, not where I thought you were going when you're like bombshell.
2:00Uh, yeah. I mean, he and the rest of the retirement home or guys that should probably be there.
2:06The Giants are so weird, man. Like they already have a crowded and bad wide receiver room and they're like, you know
2:13what we need is more of that exact same thing.
2:16And that's crazy to say it was like Odell Beckham Jr.
2:19and Juju Smith-Schuster who like at some point were each their dynasty wide receiver one in their respective years.
2:25And now you're just like, we kind of need to know when it's over.
2:30Odell Beckham Jr. hasn't played meaningful football in a couple of years.
2:34I, I don't understand these signings or what they're doing, but I think it's all just a little more breadcrumbing towards Malik neighbors.
2:41Malik neighbors is, uh, at risk. His production this year is very much at risk and every signing of every dusty receiver
2:48sends that signal loud and clear that Malik neighbors is not a hundred percent.
2:52And that the team, because it's New York and it's not Cincinnati and it's not Carolina, it's New York.
2:58There is an expectation that they put an entertaining product on the field.
3:02It's a little bit harder to tank in New York than it is somewhere else.
3:07And so they're just throwing bodies at the problem, but there is a problem, right?
3:12When you throw bodies at a problem, the underlying truth is that there's a problem.
3:16The problem in New York is their offense might stink.
3:20So like their offensive line is, is, is one of these, uh, high end elite offensive lines.
3:25They've actually run through a bunch of, uh, a bunch of options there and they've had some bust left tackles, which is
3:32always a setback for an offensive line. And now we have no idea when Malik neighbors is going to be ready.
3:38He had to go back in for a cleanup procedure.
3:42That's just more time where that leg is immobilized less time for him to strengthen it and get the flexibility back.
3:48And just to get back into football shape period.
3:51I'm not expecting to see Malik neighbors that we have known and loved until November.
3:56I think he's going to be on the field before that, but he's not going to be producing at a level that,
4:03you know, we're going to feel confident about in fantasy football.
4:06And then the question is, is there anything to salvage from this giants offense or is this a complete fade?
4:12I don't love the giants offense. And I spent the last week charting Jackson dart for reception perception, because that's what I'm
4:19doing now is charting and writing up the profiles for the quarterbacks with Matt Harmon and James Coe and company over there.
4:26And boy, the giants just gross to watch hours and hours of football of the offensive line.
4:32They're actually not that bad anymore. I don't know if it's, it's because they've been so, so bad in the past, but
4:39the past blocking Jackson dart has all kinds of time to throw.
4:42And then the happy feet just get the best of him and he'll leave the pocket when he doesn't have to, and
4:49then be terrified to throw over the middle of the field.
4:53Despite having this cannon of an army, just doesn't know how to use it properly.
4:57Uh, I I'm not excited about any of these players in the giants.
5:02I mean, camp scad was coming off injury. Millie neighbors coming off injury.
5:06Uh, you got Jackson dart. Who's still working through things.
5:09We've got a brand new offense in there. You've got a crowded wide receiver and tight end room.
5:14I think a lot of people are kind of overstating the excitement for Isaiah likely here.
5:19Theo Johnson was one of Jackson darts best targets last year.
5:23And this is the same coach that had Isaiah likely in a timeshare for his entire career.
5:28I don't see how one of these guys really comes out as the big target earner.
5:33In fact, the only guy that I'm even interested in from the giants offense is Tyrone Tracy, because I think he's just an awesome handcuff to have here.
5:42If camp scad was not able to maintain himself for the full season, he's a pass catcher.
5:47Jackson dart was throwing passes to the flats, a lot to the running backs.
5:52Uh, and also Tyrone Tracy just wins these one-on-one battles, man.
5:55Like he's a former wide receiver playing running back.
5:58It's it's the cheapest, easiest pick I can make.
6:01If I have to pick someone from the giants offense, Tyrone Tracy is the answer.
6:06I mean, you, you, you nailed it. I mean, you really, we, we're, we're mind melding already.
6:11We didn't talk about this. Everybody did not talk about this before the show.
6:16We did not talk about the giants before the show at all.
6:19This is exactly, exactly. My position is I just want Tyrone Tracy.
6:23Now I also like cam scadaboo and dynasty. Sure.
6:26I think cam scadaboo is a workhorse back and he's going to be there for years.
6:31It's just that this particular, I don't see him as a value.
6:35Tyrone Tracy is one of the best one for one true handcuffs.
6:38There's not that many. It used to be Tyler Algier.
6:42Now it's Tyler Algier and James Connor in Arizona.
6:44We're never sure who is going to get the full lion's share of the workload across most of the backfields in the NFL.
6:52This is one of those backfields where you know, it's going to be the Tyrone Tracy show.
6:57And he does have some standalone value, especially early in the year as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
7:03So I, I'm very much with you that there's never a team that you're fading 100%.
7:08You can almost always find something, but when it's the backup running back, that's as close to a full fade as a team.
7:16You're going to find Tyrone Tracy is it. That's who we care about.
7:20I can't believe we're saying that this is true.
7:23This is absolutely true and where I'm seeing Jackson dart go in drafts, especially in dynasty startups.
7:28I'm in three startups right now and every time dart gets selected.
7:32I scratch my head dart was selected at the end of the second round of a super flex startup draft.
7:38The first one that I, that I, that I kicked off this year and he went before Bo Nix.
7:44He went before Patrick Mahomes. He went before Brock Purdy and Mendoza and shock.
7:48And most importantly, he went well, well, well before Dak Prescott.
7:52In fact, we should pull this draft up. I think we can pull this draft up right now because in this draft, I'm actually on the clock.
8:00So I think that's kind of fun that we can actually do a draft right now.
8:05You and me will select a player. So here is the draft board.
8:09It's up on the screen right now. As you can see, Josh Allen, B.
8:14John, Drake may went all the way out to me at the one 10.
8:18And I started with a gente and love back to back.
8:22And then, so I'm going young, you know, one edge you can get in startups is that most people are trying to be balanced or win this year.
8:31If you're circling a particular year on the calendar, you might be the only team that's trying to win in that specific year.
8:38And I circled the year 2027. I said, 2027, I want to, I want to destroy this league.
8:43So in a 12 team super flex start, I think it's, it's, I think it's a pretty basic, nothing, nothing crazy.
8:50I'll pull up the exact rules just so that we, we have everything dialed in to have this conversation.
8:56So you're, you're like all in on the Raiders then for year two of the Fernando Mendoza regime.
9:02Oh, big time. Oh, big time. Yes, yes, yes.
9:05And there's another draft I did, which was tight end super premium where it's two X PPR for tight ends.
9:11I took brow Bowers at the one Oh four.
9:14Okay. So Bowers, I would have taken Bowers over any wide receiver and arguably over any non quarterback, you know, Allen and may.
9:21Okay. You know, it's, it's, it's super flex or it's too cool.
9:25It's too QB. Okay. I'm in, I'm doing that.
9:28But otherwise it's hard. It's hard to get me off of Brock Bowers.
9:32It doesn't get worse than last year. Last year was an incompetent offensive line, no receivers Bowers on one leg.
9:38It was truly pathetic this year. One of the great sources of value, especially for dynasty leagues is the loss of Vegas Raiders.
9:45If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That sounds right.
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11:00Louis, Missouri. Must be 21 plus to order alcohol.
11:03Alcohol available only in select markets. So this is actually Superflex half PPR.
11:07So one of the reasons why I was incentivized to go running back early was half PPR.
11:12Ended up starting Gentilove, as I mentioned. Third round at 310, Carnell Tate.
11:16This is yet another draft. Three straight drafts that I've been in where Carnell Tate goes ahead of Mendoza in the startup, which I find interesting.
11:25When you think about it and how people psychologically select players in startups, it makes a lot of sense.
11:31There's a lot of playing chicken with the quarterback position.
11:34And then once the startup is over and once these teams are out in the wild, there's a sudden realization about most
11:41of the teams need quarterback help and it's not available.
11:44And so suddenly the quarterback prices, they all go up instantly after the startup because most people, they are trying to create a roster.
11:51They're trying to build this balanced roster. They're trying to fill the gaps and they're drafting based on need instead of best player available, most valuable player available.
12:00And so sometimes I'm the only one in the draft that seems to be drafting best, most valuable player available where everyone
12:07else is just trying to fill the empty spots on their roster.
12:11And that's a great source of leverage in a dynasty startup.
12:14Are you in any dynasty startups at all? Not at the moment.
12:18I had to back off, man. Like I had to wean myself off because I was in too many dynasty leagues.
12:25And those are actually easy when you get into the regular season because for the most part, you know your roster.
12:31But I was in like, and this may sound like child's play to you, but I was in like 21 leagues.
12:38And I was just, I can't do this, man.
12:41Like it's just such a nightmare every Sunday or Thursday night to try to set your lineup.
12:46So I needed to back off a little bit.
12:49So no, no dynasty startups for me at the moment.
12:52Okay. 403 ended up with Mendoza. So I was basically rookie drafting for a couple of picks right there.
12:58Started Tate Mendoza instead of Mendoza. And that just illustrates the inefficiency of the startup.
13:03The rookie draft is actually more efficient, a more efficient one for one measurement of the value of these players.
13:09Where, like I said, in the startup, it gets really weird in that there's just the psychological mind game with punting on tight end.
13:17I've seen that, especially in Superflex tight end premium.
13:19I've seen a lot of playing chicken with tight end, where once the league is underway, getting any kind of productive tight
13:26end and tight end premium is incredibly difficult. Just like acquiring a quarterback in Superflex and 2QB is incredibly difficult.
13:33Much easier to get those players in the actual startup.
13:36So that's what I recommend doing. Knowing that they're so valuable, just get them in the startup.
13:41When everyone else is drafting Ricky Pearsall and DK Metcalf, you can swoop in and double, triple tap quarterback and tight end.
13:48Make sure you soak up that value there. So it's kind of like buying land.
13:53Like you may not live there, but you now own the commodity and it could be the most valuable commodity in your entire league.
14:00So you might as well buy up all the land.
14:04So when people need a place to live or a tight end to start, they're going to you.
14:09Yeah, I'm the land man. There should be a whole show.
14:13There should be a show called Land Man. We should we should do a television show called Land Man.
14:19What do you think of that? Yeah, maybe it's in Texas.
14:22I don't know. Maybe. Yeah, we could do a show.
14:25Right. We could do a show. So so triple tapped the triple tap, the quarterback position there.
14:31Mendoza, then Shuck, then Prescott. OK, so right there, I actually disagreed with what I did.
14:36Prescott is more valuable than Shuck. But my team was being engineered for 2027 and beyond.
14:41I wanted youth and upside. And if Shuck can seize and win this job for the long run, they start talking about,
14:48you know, him earning an extension the following year.
14:50You'd be like, OK, here we go. This is all happening because this is a this is an offense that you want pieces of.
14:58This is an exciting ascending offense in New Orleans.
15:01And then it went Jadarian Price, Luke McConkie, Zay Flowers, Brian Thomas.
15:05And Dak Prescott is there and he should have been long gone.
15:08And I was like, technically, this doesn't necessarily fit perfectly with my build, because one of the reasons why you want Dak
15:15Prescott is his 2026 season with Lamb and Pickens.
15:18This is a big draw for Dak Prescott. But it's still a dynasty league.
15:23And Dak Prescott is the type of quarterback that is going to play out until age 38.
15:28Matthew Stafford just won the MVP. And so if Dak Prescott can simply play as many years as Matthew Stafford at a
15:35similar level as Matthew Stafford without Matthew Stafford's chronic back problems, then this is an absolute slam dunk smash.
15:41The next quarterback to go after Prescott was CJ Stroud, then Mayfield, then Goff.
15:45I mean, which of these guys doesn't belong, man?
15:48It's Dak Prescott. Yeah, I mean, I get it.
15:51I think Dak's in a Dak is sort of I think I think Baker is probably in that same conversation with Dak.
15:58I don't think it's just far and away Dak, but I think there is a genuine tier gap between Dak and Baker.
16:05Other than to Stroud, Goff, Bryce Young, Darnold, Kyler, some of these other guys that went off.
16:10I think you kind of hit that last edge before everything pushed over, you know, the mountain there and quarterback value dropped off.
16:17You got one of the last guys that people are going to care about in that league.
16:23That's right. That's right. And you notice what happened.
16:25It was suddenly because I sort of pierced the veil, but I broke the trust of the draft by taking that third quarterback.
16:33Suddenly everyone's like, wait a second. The math doesn't add up anymore.
16:37I'm not just going to end up with whatever quarterback I want as my QB two or QB three.
16:42Wait a second. Everything's tilting against me. Now, all of a sudden, Goff and Murray go before my next pick.
16:49So with my next pick, I took Christian Watson.
16:52Love it. How do you feel about Christian Watson this year?
16:55Honestly, as long as he can stay healthy, which is the biggest asterisk in fantasy football, he's a really good wide receiver.
17:02He's a top 20 guy or even better if he could just be healthy, especially given the Packers offensive situation, not having Dobbs, not having wicks.
17:10We don't know the Josh Jacobs scenario here, but I also just charted Jordan Love and his rapport with Christian Watson, I
17:17think is better than anyone else in this team.
17:20I mean, I love Tucker Craft as well. Don't get me wrong.
17:24But the upside here for Christian Watson based on his cost, whether it's dynasty or redraft, I think is just astounding to me.
17:31Like he has such a big boom potential based on his cost.
17:35I mean, look at last year, 17.5 yards per reception, almost a thousand to air yards in only 10 games.
17:41And he was not 100%. Talk about Malik neighbors.
17:44A year from now, we'll be talking about grading Malik neighbors 2026 season on a curve, right?
17:49Probably. Probably. Probably. Yeah. So whatever we get from Malik neighbors, you know, we'll be celebrating.
17:54And so the fact that we got 600 plus yards close to a thousand air yards, six touchdowns and a top 15
18:01points per game year from Christian Watson, just off an ACL tear and recovery is incredibly impressive.
18:07He put up 13.2 fantasy points per game with just 55 targets that season.
18:11Yet he did it with incredible efficiency. What I love is when a player translates their athleticism into on field production runs
18:18the four, three, five, one 33.5 burst score, 94th percentile on player profile.
18:22And then he takes that and he puts up the big yards per reception and air yards numbers that you would expect
18:29from a wide receiver with these workout metrics. But so often wide receivers underperform their athleticism.
18:34Yeah. I think the thing is with the Packers is that they're using him in the right ways.
18:40They're not trying to get him into small spaces.
18:42They're using him over the top and not just on these deep routes where he's some sort of sacrificial X.
18:49They've got him running overs. They've got Jordan Love coming and play action and rolling out and being able to hit Christian Watson over the middle.
18:57If he's in a one-on-one man scenario, he's going to win that every time.
19:01But I think where he's been most valuable is when he's crossing over the top of the field and splitting the safeties.
19:08And that's something that Jordan Love has the arm and the confidence to hit those regularly.
19:13And that's something that I was noticing on film.
19:16If defenses are going to pay attention to Jaden Reed and Tucker Craft and all these other guys underneath because they're worried about that.
19:24Well, you end up getting Christian Watson going one-on-one with someone.
19:27Every time until the defense finally adjusts. And Christian Watson's going to have those big plays there at least once or twice
19:34a game, along with some just regular volume that he can hit over the middle.
19:39And that's been a big adjustment for Watson over his career is being able to win over the middle of the field.
19:46So, okay, so let's, let's pull this back up.
19:49The startup draft ended up with Christian Watson at the 710 came back around Parker, Washington, Parker, Washington, similar to Dak Prescott
19:55in that as soon as the next contract comes in, everyone's going to feel a lot better about Parker, Washington, because the extension is hanging out there.
20:04They've been talking about it. Been multiple, multiple news reports just in the last say 30 days about a Parker, Washington extension.
20:11So it is happening. As soon as they start talking about it, just like they talk about Odell Beckham landing in New York, it's going to happen, right?
20:20You might as well just scoop them off the waiver wire and deep dynasty leagues and just make sure you have him because it's going to happen.
20:28They're going to be extending Parker, Washington. But then the moment they extend Parker, Washington, suddenly everything clicks with everyone.
20:34Wait a second. Is he their wide receiver one now?
20:38Wait, what does this mean? He's making the most money.
20:41He's the one they're all talking about. Coaches are talking about.
20:44Players are talking about. Huh? Interesting. Interesting. Same with Dak Prescott.
20:48Dak Prescott. He's not going to play out his contract.
20:51He's going to be, he is going to have a great 2026 season.
20:55He's going to put in for another big extension and Dallas is going to give it to him.
21:01And then anyone that drafted him in dynasty when he was 32 years old is going to feel like there's no difference
21:08between taking it, taking a Dak Prescott at 32 and, you know, a Justin Herbert at say 29.
21:13What's the difference? They're going to play for five plus years at a high level.
21:18So you take the guy that's less expensive. It just so happens that Dak Prescott can be had many, many rounds later.
21:25We're talking about round six in super flex for Dak Prescott.
21:28We're talking about round seven for Christian Watson, round eight for Parker Washington.
21:32What do you think about Parker Washington? I mean, I've always liked him as a, as a player.
21:38I think he's a good player. I think we still have a little bit more to see on him as to what his role is going to be.
21:47Last year, what worked out so well in his favor was guys being out, Brian Thomas Jr.
21:52being out of the lineup, Travis Hunter being out of the lineup.
21:56And then they go and they trade for Jacoby Myers, who I still think is the wide receiver one on this team.
22:03Oddly enough, like I think he's genuinely going to be the lead target earner for this team because of the way Liam Cohen runs this offense.
22:11And what worked out so well for the Jags and specifically Parker Washington last year was that the team did not use
22:18a lot of multiple tight end sets. They actually ran 11 personnel at one of the highest rates in the league last
22:25year, which allowed for three wide receivers to be on the field all the time.
22:30However, this year, this off, this off season going into the draft, they go and they, they draft Nate Borkutcher, a blocking tight end in the second round.
22:38They draft Tanner Koziel in the fifth round. They add that to Brenton strange and everything else they've gotten the lineup.
22:45I think we might see them start to use a two tight end set a little bit more.
22:51Does it make Parker Washington a bad player or not usable in fans?
22:55It's fantasy. Not at all. He's still going to be very valuable to them.
22:59I just wonder if we may have already hit that fantasy production ceiling, even if they give them the contract extension, even
23:06if they keep them there long-term, you've got Jacoby Myers, you've got Brian Thomas Jr.
23:11You've got a team that's likely going to be using more tight ends.
23:15And then lost in all this shuffle is that Travis Hunter still exists as they're figuring out what they're going to do
23:22with him and how they're going to utilize him.
23:25They keep saying, we're still going to use him on offense.
23:28And the easiest place to put Travis Hunter is in the slot.
23:32So now you've got to ask yourself if Parker Washington is going to get moved outside in two wide receiver sets.
23:39He can do that. I just wonder how much each of these little things start to eat away at the ceiling that's there for Washington.
23:46Yeah. Basically everything you mentioned is also a cautionary tale for Brian Thomas.
23:51Brian Thomas went a full two rounds earlier in this startup.
23:54And there's no guarantee that Brian Thomas is going to get all the two receiver set snaps and run all those routes.
24:01That's a really Smith to me in this draft.
24:04I'm looking at that draft board. That's, that's nuts.
24:07I don't, I don't understand that at all. Yeah.
24:09I think there was a reach on Brian Thomas for sure.
24:13And so yeah, Parker Washington value looking a lot better there.
24:16I think there's going to be plenty of, of sets where Parker Washington is, is in, in place of Jacoby Myers.
24:23Jacoby Myers has never been sure a, a, Hey, I'm an every down player.
24:27He's been a slot receiver primarily. And so it could be that you have Parker Washington actually, even in say 13 personnel,
24:34it's Parker Washington out there, not Brian Thomas or Jacoby Myers.
24:38It's one of, I think the top five observations that I'm looking forward to making in week one is the Jacksonville wide receiver snap shares.
24:46That is going to be, it's a huge unknown hanging over all of this, this season.
24:51And, and look at, look at how this draft played out.
24:54You notice that, okay, I'm playing for 2027 primarily, right?
24:57Well, that means I want wide receivers that are age 24, 25.
25:01There is an incredible scarcity of those wide receiver profiles that you either go young or you go old.
25:07You don't Christian Watson's already 27. Can you believe it?
25:10Gosh, it's, it's, it's crazy. It's weird. Look at the receivers that went after Parker Washington, Ricky Pearsall.
25:16Who would you rather have Pearsall or Washington? You don't want to ask me that.
25:21You don't want to ask me that. I'm a Pearsall guy.
25:24You're Pearsall, but there's very similar uncertainties around Pearsall and his usage.
25:28Oh, absolutely. He can't, he can't stay healthy. He hasn't proven that in his career.
25:33Yeah. These are both upside plays. Yeah. Yeah. These are the guys I was considering.
25:37I was considering Washington. I was considering Pearsall. And then after that, look at the guys that went Metcalf, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans.
25:45And then if I want to go young, look at the receivers that are going.
25:50It's Jordan Addison. No, thank you. Jaden Higgins. Well, that's even more speculative.
25:54Omar Cooper, even more speculative. So this is why I went Parker.
25:58Why now the Parker Washington pick after Alec Pierce, after Casey Concepcion, after these guys are off the board made a lot
26:05more sense, I'm actually on the clock right now.
26:07So the last four picks were Jaden Higgins, Omar Cooper, Tony Pollard, Isaiah Likely.
26:12Now we have to make a pick. We have to make a pick.
26:16And my cue at the top of my cue is Michael Wilson.
26:20I also have a Rondé Gadsden. And if you look over here at best players available, it's Devontae Adams.
26:26So this is an interesting place to be where the guy you want this year is absolutely Devontae Adams.
26:32Devontae Adams being available at the 9-10 in any draft, in any format is ridiculous.
26:36This is the guy that we know starts, is on the field for 13 personnel.
26:41And everyone is expecting Los Angeles and every team in the NFL, based on the success that Matthew Stafford had in 13
26:48personnel last year, like five touchdowns, zero interceptions inside the five-yard line.
26:52Everyone's going to this formation. And Devontae Adams is that lone receiver that plays in that formation for Los Angeles.
26:58And he's still available, literally 30 ADP slots after he typically goes.
27:02For whatever reason, no one is drafting him. If I select him, suddenly I'm competing for this year.
27:08Now, based on my roster, you know my roster is Gentilove, Tate, Mendoza, Shuck, Prescott, Watson, Washington.
27:13Because I took Watson in his prime and Prescott, this team could conceivably compete.
27:17So I'm tempted. I am tempted to go Devontae Adams here.
27:21Yeah. I mean, I think it, I'm always of the mindset that I want to compete every year, unless my team is
27:28just so impossibly bad that I know I can't.
27:31But if you're in a startup and you have the ability to choose your team here, I kind of like leaning into Devontae Adams here.
27:38My only worry is knowing that the Rams were reportedly where they were in on the AJ Brown sweepstakes.
27:44So it's kind of like if you are getting Devontae Adams, you're really committing to him for just this year.
27:51He's not like, you almost have to draft him with the idea that he may not be a part of your team
27:58or the Rams next year because he may even retire.
28:01Like we don't, we don't know what the situation is there.
28:04So I like the mix though, because I think that you can, obviously you can put them into your starting lineup day one here.
28:12You become competitive this year because you've already got a good mix of good running backs with starting quarterbacks that can get you there.
28:19So I like it, especially from where it's at.
28:22It's a value. It's a good player that you can start immediately.
28:26And I'll be honest, I like him way more than Michael Wilson.
28:30So yeah. So yeah, this is, this is the, I mean, I didn't think he was going to be available.
28:36I didn't even put him in my queue. Why would I put Devontae Adams in my queue?
28:41Right? What do I do? Why? Well, he's not going to be there.
28:45He is there. It's crazy. And in Los Angeles, they signed Miles Garrett.
28:50So this also tells me that they're going to be going heavy personnel.
28:54We know that. And they want to play elite defense.
28:57They want to be the best defensive team in the league.
29:00It's an arms race between Los Angeles and Seattle.
29:03It's like blow for blow. Now the Rams have to be the favorite to win the Superbowl, not Seattle, but, but it's between those two.
29:11It's just too bad. They're in the same conference.
29:14Are you at all concerned? Should we dial back the projection even slightly on say a Puka Nakua, given that he doesn't
29:21play in 13 personnel, given that they're investing in the defense and that they're likely good means a lower total pass attempts.
29:28If they're going to be playing this kind of defense and there's not going to be a reason to be throwing the ball.
29:35If you're up 20, if you're leading 17, three, even why even bother throwing?
29:39And then how does Puka get there? Yeah. I mean, I think you have to make a slight adjustment.
29:45I don't think it's anything that like drops these guys drastically in the rankings.
29:50I think they pretty much still go where they're going, whether it's redraft or dynasty.
29:54The Rams have the MVP quarterback. I, even though they add, you know, miles Garrett, I don't think they go, well, we're a running team now.
30:03They're going to continue to let Matt Stafford be the straw that stirs the drink for their offense.
30:08So I don't see it as a massive game changer for them.
30:12If we're talking maybe a handful of, of like a handful, sorry, a few less pass attempts per game.
30:18Sure. That's going to adjust the projections a little bit, but not nothing where I'm saying like, I just want to avoid
30:25these guys, especially this kind of cost where you get into Devante Adams, where he is.
30:30Well, Devante Adams smash right here. That's for sure.
30:33But let's say you're in a best ball draft, right?
30:36CeeDee Lamb doesn't have this problem. CeeDee Lamb is playing the Puka Nakua position for the Cowboys and they have the worst defense.
30:43They're a team that, you know, is going to be dialing up 600 pass attempts.
30:48So you don't have this concern with CeeDee Lamb that you have with Puka Nakua.
30:53I think it makes it more of a conversation.
30:55Just those two in particular, that dichotomy is interesting where these are.
30:59Players that are playing a similar position at a similar level, but the teams are very different.
31:05The offense is pass first and the other offense is balanced.
31:08Yeah. I've got Puka Nakua actually a few spots lower.
31:11And you're talking, well, you're talking best ball, but to kind of bring that around to redraft, I've got him a few
31:18spots lower at the wide receiver position. I'm going to probably catch something for this, but I've got him behind.
31:24JSN, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb. There it is. This is what, thank you.
31:29I just, we're talking, we do this a lot in fantasy where we chase what happened the previous year.
31:35Guy has big touchdowns. We think he's going to do it again.
31:38Or Matt Stafford's an MVP quarterback. We think he's going to do it again.
31:43I, listen, the fact that the Rams are adding more tight ends, looking for other wide receivers tells me that they want
31:50to spread the ball around a bit more. Jackson Smith and Jim was still the top wide receiver in Seattle, and it
31:57is very much going to be a passing offense by all means.
32:00Still, like, I don't think they're just going to give Jadarian Price 30 touches a game.
32:05It's going to be JSN's offense. Justin Jefferson, I think is in for a massive bounce back with Kyler Murray there.
32:12Not that he's some phenomenal quarterback, but he's actually a quarterback.
32:15So there's just guys that I'd rather have here over Puka Nakua, especially given the injury concerns he's had year over year too.
32:23So are we doing this? Are we drafting Devontae Adams?
32:26This is a thing that's happening right now. I'm going to be competing this year.
32:31This is kind of a fun realization. I was trying to come into this total deference to my other league mates.
32:37Like, hey, you guys go kill it in 2026.
32:40I'll be a factor in 2027. Now I'm suddenly ready to throw my hat in the ring and be like, not so fast.
32:47Are we going to do a not so fast?
32:50Can we do it? Let's do it. Let's do it.
32:53Not so fast. Not so fast, my friend. Yeah, I'm with it, man.
32:57I'm with it. I think Devontae Adams is a good pick here.
33:01It keeps you competitive for this year. And hey, if he comes back, it's kind of like found money in the pocket of your laundry.
33:09You know, you pull the jeans out the dryer.
33:12You're like, oh, cool. 20 bucks. Devontae Adams is back for 2027.
33:16Let's run it back. I'm old enough to remember when we thought Steve Smith was done, right?
33:21Ruptures the Achilles. It's over, right? And then Steve Smith, suddenly he's back and productive for the Ravens.
33:27And it's like, oh, you know, okay. That was a great season.
33:30Great job, Steve. Happy retirement. No, he's back for another season.
33:34Okay. Right? Yeah. All we need is for Devontae Adams to play one more year.
33:39Just one more year. If he does play at a high level, just because he just happens to be that much.
33:45If he is one of these offseason psychos, it's very possible.
33:49It's very possible. And there's also a possibility where if I'm not competing in 2026, I have a team that is in
33:56contention, but I just don't feel like I can get over the top.
34:00Maybe there's been a couple of super teams that have consolidated assets.
34:03And I'm like, you know what? I'm not going to win this year by, say, Halloween, early November.
34:09I can always put Devontae Adams on the block.
34:12I can always dangle Devontae Adams out there and be like, hey, contenders, this will put you over the top.
34:18And then I could potentially bank like a late 2027 first.
34:22I mean, this is that might be a bit of a stretch, but I could at least bank a 2027 second and
34:29some young players in exchange for Devontae Adams. He's also a current Steve.
34:33You're the land man now. You're the land man.
34:35This is me being the land man again. This is a very you're right.
34:40This is a land man move where I'm going to run this fucking league, dude.
34:45This is what everyone's talking about. Everything's on the table.
34:48This is what champions come to take. This is what everyone came to see.
34:52And the slam! No do-overs. No second chances. No more Mr.
34:56Nice Guy. This is winner take all. The NBA Finals continue on ABC and the ESPN app.
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35:15American Express Business Platinum. There's nothing like it. Terms apply.
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35:22Learn more at AmericanExpress.com slash business dash platinum. We're taking Devontae Adams and we're going to run the league in three, two, one.
35:29Got him! We got Devontae Adams! Yeah! That felt good, man.
35:33That felt good. That was like, everyone's like, well, I can wait.
35:37Devontae Adams will come back around to me. You know, the podfather, he's playing for 2027.
35:42He's not going to pick him. Not so fast, league mates.
35:45Not so fast. Absolutely love it. Oh my God.
35:48That felt good, man. I haven't felt that good about a pick in a long time.
35:53You feel alive? Feel rejuvenated? Thank you, Alfredo. You were here with me.
35:57We were locking arms. We did this together. It felt so good.
36:01All right. So we should talk about AJ Brown.
36:04Yep. He is a Patriot. And how are you evaluating the Patriots offense, the Eagles offense?
36:09How does this change your projections? Drake May, Jalen Hurts.
36:12We talked about Devontae Smith earlier, that he went too late in this particular startup.
36:17Let's talk. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think for the most part, for a lot of the guys that we, I think
36:23for the players we were going to care about in fantasy, we care about them even more.
36:29And then the guys who were kind of on the outskirts of this whole thing, we can just stop kidding ourselves.
36:35Like, we don't have to be excited about Keishon Booty this year.
36:39Like, we can just banish him to wide receiver 82 shadow realm.
36:43You know? Romeo Dobbs. I know people have been waiting for that to happen.
36:47He is exactly Romeo Dobbs. He should be a wide receiver five on your fantasy roster every single time.
36:53For Drake May, this keeps him right at quarterback two for me.
36:57I'm talking in redraft and in Dynasty. But like, he stays exactly where he was.
37:02Jalen Hurts. I think this, ironically, pardon the wordplay, hurts him a little bit.
37:06Um, I think there's already enough worries going on there about what his longevity is like in Philly and how long he's
37:13going to be there and how can he get back to passing the ball a little bit more efficiently.
37:19But for all the receivers, AJ Brown, Devante Smith, Makai Lemon, they all went up in my rankings.
37:25I think this is a great move. This is a Michael Scott win, win, win scenario.
37:30All three of these players win. Fantasy managers win.
37:33Makai Lemon is my wide receiver 34 now. Devante Smith is my wide receiver 12.
37:37I'm going to be very high on Devante Smith.
37:40And then AJ Brown is my wide receiver eight.
37:43I think he should be going in the middle of the second rounds.
37:47Like I've got him right there with Nico Collins as a guy who he needs to be getting drafted early in redraft.
37:54Everybody knows and has known for months. AJ Brown is going to the Patriots, right?
37:59This was a done deal. There's all the sides aren't close.
38:02They were close. Come on now. Right. They had months to figure this out.
38:07And yet again, in this startup, Devante Smith went after AJ Brown, which was weird to me.
38:12Yeah. We talked about he went after Brian Thomas.
38:15Like, okay, not sure. Okay. I love Devante Smith.
38:18He doesn't profile as an alpha. The problem is if Devante Smith were two inches taller, 20 pounds heavier, then it would be different.
38:25He'd be viewed as an alpha. But he's being punished just because he doesn't look the part.
38:31That's pretty much it. Otherwise, he'd go like a full round or two earlier.
38:35Look where Nico Collins goes. Yeah. I mean, I don't understand it because to me, Devante Smith and Chris Olave are such similar players.
38:43And I really like Chris Olave. So you're going to tell me that like 10 pounds of difference is like really what
38:50changes how you're going to view a player. I don't even think it's that much.
38:54I just don't have their weights in front of me at the moment.
38:58But everyone's drafting Chris Olave. Like he's a surefire top 12 wide receiver, which kind of throws me off.
39:04I love Chris Olave. But yeah, Jordan Tyson in there.
39:07You add Oscar Delp. You add Travis Etienne. You have more and more guys that are going to be catching passes.
39:14Devante Smith is now the guy in this offense.
39:17Like you've got the rotting husk of Dallas Goddard.
39:20You've got hopeful Makai Lemon that can be a good underneath receiver.
39:23But you've got an entire field for Devante Smith to run around in.
39:28He's a sure-handed receiver, a great route runner. I'm all in on Devante Smith this year.
39:33This also helps another tight end, not Dallas Goddard.
39:35His name's Eli Stowers. Oh, my baby boy. Okay.
39:38Eli Stowers is very interesting to me. He is, by some measures, the most athletic tight end in the history of the pre-draft process.
39:46We're talking about a 147.1 burst score, which was the highest ever recorded.
39:50Runs a 4.5. Flat, essentially, was dominant as a producer at Vanderbilt.
39:54And yeah, he's only 240 pounds. He really does need to break out of that tweener archetype and get to like 245, 250, which he will.
40:02He's just turned 23. Give him a couple years in the league.
40:06He'll be up to 245, 250, no problem. So to me, this is a great guy to pick.
40:11This is a team that has wanted to go 12 personnel for the last decade, going back to Ertz and Goddard.
40:18They were the original 12 personnel team, and they want to get right back at it.
40:23That was one of the reasons they brought in Eli Stowers, to be the move tight end, because Dallas Goddard can play
40:30as a blocking tight end or a move tight end.
40:33So, I mean, when you talk about all-time athleticism score at the tight end position, he's 7th all-time out of 559 tight ends.
40:40And the only reason he isn't number one is because it's weight and size adjusted.
40:45At 239, he was 7th all-time. I want this guy.
40:48And I just got my first Stowers in a tight end premium rookie draft.
40:53I did the thing I rarely do, which is I traded back up into the first round.
40:58I'm always paying attention to the chat, guys wanting to trade up.
41:02And a lot of times they say, hey, I want to trade up.
41:06I want to trade down. Usually trade down, right?
41:09Trade down, trade down. And I'm like, okay, well, I'm not trading up.
41:13So good luck with that. In this case, I looked and it was like, it was at the 111.
41:19I needed a tight end. This guy wants to trade down.
41:22And I'm like, okay, I think we can actually do some business here, right?
41:27I have Kyron Williams on a rebuilding team, which is like a radioactive asset on a rebuilding team.
41:32We can figure out how to put a deal together.
41:35We include a 2027 second. We can get this done.
41:39So yeah, I'm in very much. I love Eli Stowers.
41:42I've got him ahead of Kenyon Sadiq in my dynasty rankings.
41:45I had him ahead of Kenyon Sadiq in dynasty rookie rankings.
41:49He was my rookie tight end one. I know draft capital people are going to be like, but wait, Kenyon Sadiq went first round and Eli Stowers didn't.
41:57I don't care. Eli Stowers from everything I've watched on film is just he's a better route runner.
42:03He is a better catcher of the football. He's actually better after the catch.
42:07The only thing he just doesn't do well is block.
42:11And in this offense with the Eagles, I don't know that he's really going to have to do that all that often.
42:18Dallas Goddard's barely in there blocking. Dallas Goddard's out there catching a lot of screens.
42:22Dallas Goddard's also not always very healthy. So if Eli Stowers gets to hop into that role or even just play the
42:29big slot and they move Makai Lemon outside, all of a sudden we're talking about a guy who's productive in his rookie year.
42:36And then look at the top of dynasty rankings right now for tight ends.
42:41Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin, all rookies, all guys that came in into a shared, let's call it receiver room between the receivers and tight ends.
42:49And now look at where they're at. If we want to talk about getting a positive value on a player, Eli Stowers
42:56is one of those guys that I think could be doing a Harold Fannin thing by this time next year where we're
43:03talking about him as a top six, top five tight end in dynasty.
43:07We only need him to give us Gadsden level production.
43:10Yeah. That's all we need. I can't believe I left out Gadsden too.
43:15Yeah. Well, Gadsden level production is like a month.
43:17One good month from Stowers and the projection is on.
43:21Yeah. Like the extrapolation is on. Goddard's going to be 32 and, you know, he is not the type of tight end
43:27that's going to be playing and producing for fantasy up to 35.
43:31That's not Dallas Goddard. He is dusty already. So it's already happening.
43:35So like Stowers and Lemon, man, like now all of a sudden this helps to put Lemon squarely as the like the
43:42fifth player off the board and super flex and two QB leagues.
43:46And for those that love Lemon and might've been picking him ahead of Jordan Tyson, that's not me, but that it's certainly
43:53when you look at the depth chart now in Philly and you kind of imagine how this is all going to play out much more defensible.
44:01Yeah. A hundred percent. I mean, I'm still, I'm right there with you for dynasty.
44:06I'm going Tate Tyson Lemon still in that order.
44:08But I think now if we're looking at redraft, I think McKay Lemon is probably and should be going ahead of Jordan
44:15Tyson in, in redraft leagues and probably a bit closer to Carnell Tate.
44:19Like I said before, he's a wide receiver three in my eyes.
44:23And I think Carnell Tate's right on that wide receiver two, three borderline.
44:27We're way out ahead on Carnell Tate. I just want to let you know, Carnell Tate, because of the, look who his teammate was at Ohio state, right?
44:36Just imagine if he went to any other school, what kind of production Carnell Tate would have had.
44:42I think there's, there's hidden value in a guy that went top five in the NFL draft, which is crazy.
44:48Like that's not a thing, but somehow there seems to be right now value with Carnell Tate where I want, I'm already
44:55projecting Carnell Tate to be a more valuable dynasty asset than Tett McMillan, right?
44:59Because essentially Tett McMillan was a top 10 pick and put up 12 and a half fantasy points per game.
45:06Well, that's what Carnell Tate's going to do this year.
45:09And Carnell Tate's two years younger. So what are we even talking about here?
45:13And Carnell Tate is a better long-term quarterback solution than Tett McMillan.
45:17So for me, it's like, just get out ahead of it on Carnell Tate.
45:21Like this guy's a superstar. He's not quite Jeremiah Smith.
45:25Okay. Nobody is, but he's going to be a top 10 receiver for the foreseeable future.
45:30That guy is hyper valuable. And so I think that the gap between Tate and, and lemon and Tyson is, is pretty wide.
45:37And I think that coming in before these guys landed on teams, it was, it was, there were, there was debate between these three players.
45:45And now I think there's been a stratification that's happened.
45:48And if you look down the board, the receiver that you could argue has a chance, right?
45:53At least has an opportunity and has the profile to break into that big three would be Chris Bell.
45:59Chris Bell, if healthy, Chris Bell, if he can translate and kind of do what he did in college, in the NFL,
46:06Chris Bell has the alpha profile that we're looking for, but he's going in the second round.
46:11Have you done, did you chart Chris Bell at all in college?
46:15I mean, I wrote up a full scouting report on him, so I didn't chart his exact routes, but Chris Bell's got to learn a route tree, man.
46:24I'm a Dolphins fan saying this. He's got to learn a route tree.
46:28He's got basically three routes in his bag right now.
46:31A go route, curls, and slants, that's about it.
46:34And maybe he doesn't need more than that as a rookie, and maybe Malik Willis can't throw more than that this year
46:41as a Dolphins offense just kind of tries to take shape.
46:44Chris Bell's got the size, he's got the athleticism, and I think we kind of step on this rake every year.
46:51We really like these guys who have the A.J.
46:54Brown physicality, but they're not quite there yet, right, in terms of their technique and the way that they run routes.
47:01And for me, if you can't run routes before getting to the NFL, you typically don't learn how to do it once you get there.
47:08NFL coaches aren't teaching you how to run routes.
47:11They're worried about you knowing the playbook. They need to get you on the field so that you bring some sort of value.
47:18That's what worries me about Chris Bell. It's like one of my direct comps for him was Xavier Leggett, a guy who's
47:25big, fast, hands are a little inconsistent. Man, he can make some beautiful plays.
47:30I don't know that he's a true receiver. I think he's a really cool weapon X that you can sort of use, right?
47:37Like another Debo Samuel type of player, not saying he's the next Debo.
47:41I know, but I think that's how an offense is going to try to use him.
47:46Let's get him some quick shots in the screen game.
47:49Let's get him some drags and some overs in the middle, and then let's try to take the top off.
47:56Him coming off the knee injury worries me a little bit.
47:59Structurally, it made perfect sense for me to draft him a lot.
48:03In the second round, a lot of the orphans I took over.
48:07So I took over 20 orphans in 20 days.
48:09It was a big dynasty stunt that I did.
48:12You're like Batman. Look at you. Yeah. Yeah. And so, yeah, most of these teams were horrible.
48:18And the most common pick that I had was the 102 because basically these were teams that were gunning for the 101, missed it, and then quit.
48:26Okay. Those are a lot of the orphans I ended up taking over.
48:30So I have a lot of Fernando Mendoza, a lot of Carnell Tate.
48:34And I love it. Right? I love it. I'm very happy.
48:38These guys are one guy's on the cover of GQ, and I just got done talking about it.
48:43One guy's already a top 10 dynasty receiver, according to the player profile of Dynasty Deluxe Rankings.
48:49So I'm happy. But then when it comes back around in the early second round, you know, the big debate is Singleton versus Chris Bell.
48:57And with some of these teams, you're both are great picks when you're aiming for a year from now and seeing if they can accrue value.
49:05How can they accrue value? Well, there's a bunch of ways that Chris Bell accrues value.
49:10He gets healthy. He flashes big plays. And then they have to go draft a receiver next year, but they're not going
49:17to be drafting a receiver in the first round next year.
49:20They're drafting a quarterback in the first round, Alfredo.
49:23So they're probably drafting a quarterback in the first round, which means they're less likely to draft a receiver in the first
49:30round next year, which means that you're going to have that 2027 season where Chris Bell could be by himself as the alpha in that passing game.
49:39And so that was the structural reason why I was pushing the button on Chris Bell, even though in a vacuum, I
49:45think Ted Hurst is a better player. I think Ted Hurst is a better all around receiver.
49:51But he goes many picks later. And in some of these drafts, I had multiple picks and I could get Chris Bell and Ted Hurst.
49:59But I'm like all the teams where I have a pick that is in the second half of the second round.
50:05I'm going Ted Hurst and all those teams anyway.
50:08So I'm already super overexposed to Ted Hurst. So it's basically like I have a ton of Ted Hurst.
50:14And then in the second round, I'm getting some Singleton and some Chris Bell.
50:18So those are my three highest, most rostered players from Dynasty rookie drafts are those three guys.
50:24And it really just depends on the team, depends on the trajectory of the roster, whether I'm pushing the button on Bell
50:31or I'm pushing the button on Singleton. How do you feel about Nicholas Singleton?
50:35He is very OK. I think he's got a lot.
50:38He's got some upside there where you can see him make the big plays.
50:43I don't like that we sort of saw him regress as his career went on.
50:47He has the size, the speed, the pass catching ability to be a three down back.
50:52You just don't typically see guys that got drafted where Singleton did and become workhorse backs in the NFL.
50:58They just simply don't. And even being on the Titans, who I'm very high on the Titans offense going into this next
51:05year, I think they're going to make a big leap.
51:09I just finished charting Cam Ward for reception perception.
51:11I'm really excited about that. Did you chart the game in Seattle?
51:15Yes, I did. How impressive. Yeah. Right. Knowing what you know now about Seattle.
51:20It's crazy. I actually charted Cam Ward against some of the toughest opponents, the Seattle, the Rams, the Patriots, like he was going up against some tough defenses.
51:28And this poor guy was just playing hero ball every every second that he had to in last year's games.
51:35It was nuts. Taking care of the football. Yeah.
51:38I mean, for the most part. Yeah. He's a little bit of a psychopath.
51:42The way the dude runs around back there felt like I was watching a Fran Tarkenton highlight the way he just kind
51:49of runs around for 30 yards and then he'll throw it back across the field.
51:54He does that same play once every couple of weeks.
51:57I swear I had the same play in three different games clipped.
52:00But the thing with this offense is Taji Spears is still going to have a role, whether he's three down back or not.
52:08He's a really good pass blocker and he's a really good pass catcher.
52:12And Tony Paula is the RB one. So I don't know that we're going to see much from Singleton in year one.
52:19We kind of have to hope that something comes of it in year two.
52:23And then by then you're saying, OK, well, this is a I can't remember right now.
52:28Is he a fourth round pick Singleton? Fifth round.
52:31Fifth round. So now we're saying, OK, if the fifth round running back didn't break out as a rookie, are we giving
52:38him a starting job or are we going to keep grabbing a bunch of running backs and do a committee thing here?
52:45So we kind of have to hope he breaks out this year.
52:49Does a camp scataboo thing where like other guys get hurt.
52:52He fills in and just looks great. If it does.
52:55Awesome. But that's kind of how this rookie class was.
52:58Everyone in the second round kind of stinks and you're just hoping one of them pops off.
53:04So you might as well take a chance with one of these guys.
53:08And he's in a good spot with an ascending offense and a good long term answer quarterback.
53:13So it's it's not a terrible pick at all.
53:16That's not. It's it's fine. I mean, it's it's you're leveraging players that fell in the draft because of injury.
53:22That's it. Right. Both their black box prospects. It's like Parker Washington.
53:26Parker Washington didn't test. No idea if Parker Washington is super athlete or not.
53:30Singleton. What we do know ran a four four six in high school and, you know, was a freak in the gym.
53:37So that's really good. And we know what we've seen from from Chris Bell, a freak with the ball in his hands.
53:44So there's at least some things to get excited about with Ted Hurst.
53:48The value comes from the fact that he comes from a small school.
53:53So you're either getting a guy that didn't go up against elite competition or a guy that was injured throughout the process.
53:59That is the way that you have to make picks to to maximize upside in the second round of a weak class.
54:06If the class is weak, if you're just taking a guy from the major conference program like a Denzel Boston and hoping
54:13that he's going to start to separate at the NFL level, probably not going to happen.
54:18Right. Right. It's that's the type of player where there is a limited ceiling on the Browns.
54:24They already have Concepcion. If you think Concepcion is better than Denzel Boston, suddenly he's the one B at best.
54:30The one B in 2027 on a team whose offense is in transition to drafting a guy like that is not the
54:37way to maximize upside or Jeremy Bernard. You're getting what you're getting in that when you draft a bell, when you draft
54:44a singleton, when you draft a Ted Hurst, then you can actually get a pop some kind that wasn't baked in to their rookie draft ADP.
54:52And what I love about Hurst too, is that he's very position specific where the Bucks need an X receiver and he can be an X receiver.
55:01And I'm not saying he's going to be the next Mike Evans, but we kind of saw what their X receiver does
55:07for years and years and years and years. So if he can even be 60 or 70 percent of Mike Evans, just be a Mike Evans light.
55:16We're talking about a guy that was an extremely valuable second round pick and rookie drafts.
55:21I think the talent's there. Now we have to see if the opportunity is there.
55:26Can he beat out Jalen McMillan, which I think he can.
55:29Chris Godwin's getting older. I think it becomes a thing where Ted Hurst is going to see some pretty flashy plays.
55:36And then a year from now, this offense is Ted Hurst and Emeka Ibuka.
55:40And we're wondering how this guy slipped through past so many people in rookie drafts.
55:45Thank you. Thank you for saying that. Overall in dynasty, who is your wide receiver one?
55:50Oh, let me pull that up. I just had that here a second ago.
55:54The fact that you don't have it off the dome is it makes it interesting.
55:59It's a conversation. Because I'm a tinkerer. I'm a tinkerer.
56:02I move back and forth. I have at one point had JSN.
56:06Not long ago, I had Justin Jefferson still. Obviously, after last year and the quarterback situation.
56:11But I kind of always come back to who's got the best long-term scenario.
56:15And despite winning the Super Bowl, I don't necessarily think it's Sam Darnold with JSN.
56:20I think it's Jamar Chase. We have seen him what it looks like with and without Joe Burrow.
56:26He's still Jamar Chase. We have seen what it looks like when he has Tee Higgins playing at the top of his game.
56:33He is still Jamar Chase. You know, like we have seen so much.
56:37I think there's an argument to be made for a lot of these guys.
56:42JSN, Jefferson. At some point, it was Lamb. Jamar Chase is kind of the only guy that has proven no matter what happens, he's going to produce.
56:50And I think the situation could potentially only get better for him going forward.
56:54In terms of target share, Jackson Smith and Jigbo was number one last year.
56:59Yep. And he was number two in air yard share.
57:02And he's only 24 years old. So we talk about the lack of, right?
57:06The desperate lack of age 24, 25 wide receivers.
57:09With the exception of JSN. Right? And so things could even improve for him on a rate basis.
57:15It doesn't get better than his target share. But it's not like they threw the ball a lot last year.
57:21He still got 163 targets for a team that wasn't necessarily throwing the ball a lot.
57:26He wasn't even in the top 20 in terms of routes run.
57:30Alfredo. He was outside the top 20 in routes run last year.
57:34That's the argument for Jackson Smith and Jigbo. As soon as this defense loses a couple pieces, then suddenly they have to throw a little bit more.
57:42And then it's even, it's even more nuclear for JSN.
57:45I think on the surface, that's obviously like those are stats that you're saying, well, it can only get better.
57:52Right. But there are so many things on the outside that can get worse.
57:56Sam Darnold can play significantly worse given that they lost their offensive mind that constructed this offense.
58:02Like the Super Bowl. Rashid Shahid. Rashid Shahid was not there for most of the year.
58:07He came in late and was worked slowly into the offense.
58:10And he's good. Now he could be something. You've got some young players, like especially at tight end, AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo.
58:17I'm not saying these are world beaters, but what happens if they start to get just a smaller piece of that pie?
58:24Right. Like something happens to an offense where if their quarterback or their offensive coordinator and everything that worked for them a
58:31year ago start to not work, they have to pull a different lever and say, like, what else can we do?
58:37Because we can only keep throwing to JSN so many times and keep trying to win a Super Bowl this way.
58:44The same way people figured out the Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes thing or the Tua Tungabailoa Tyreek Hill thing.
58:50Basically, all I got is Tyreek Hill examples here.
58:53But the same way people figure that out, they can start to figure out different parts of this offense.
58:59And so that's the only thing that worries me is I think Sam Darnold has proven himself now as a starting quarterback.
59:06Has he proven himself to me where I'm just like, yes, every single year, JSN and Seattle Seahawks passing offense, I'm in.
59:13I'm not quite there yet. You don't have to convince me that Sam Darnold is a problem.
59:18I can't believe we're here with the belief in Sam Darnold.
59:21And Jackson Smith and Jigba's best comparable player on Player Profiler is Amon Ross St.
59:26Brown. And they had the exact same number of targets last year.
59:30He and Amon Ross St. Brown. He operates more downfield.
59:33He posted an extra 400 plus air yards over Amon Ross.
59:37That was the difference. That was the only difference between Amon Ross and JSN last season.
59:42These are very similar players. And I've seen Amon Ross go first round in Superflex Dynasty Startups.
59:47So there's a real hive around Amon Ross and he deserves it.
59:51Like he's only 26 years old. So and he's going to play for a long time.
59:56Amon Ross will be playing at age 33. Like basically Devante Adams, however long he plays, Amon Ross will play that long.
60:03The Lions have the easiest schedule by far, which is interesting.
60:06It doesn't necessarily mean that Goff and Amon Ross are going to be great any more than if they had a, let's say a mid-level schedule.
60:14Because that also means that they're probably going to be blowing some teams out on that schedule.
60:20But Gibbs, man, when I saw that schedule, my first thought was, oh my God, what does this mean for Jameer Gibbs?
60:27Oh, oh, oh, oh. Maybe a good pass blocker where you're actually asking, hmm, what are the Lions going to do on this play?
60:34And they could fool you a little bit. I don't think that same trickery is available with Isaiah Pacheco as a pass blocker, as a receiver.
60:42I think we could be looking at the biggest workload that we've seen for Jameer Gibbs here.
60:48And Jared Goff was actually the first quarterback I charted for reception perception.
60:52And boy, checkdowns galore. The offense is going to work through the flats.
60:56It's going to work through Jameer Gibbs. I think he's very much should be a top two pick in redraft.
61:02And I can be convinced that he is the running back one overall.
61:06RB1. RB1, Jameer Gibbs. I mean, this coincides with the departure of David Montgomery.
61:11Like, this is a Christian McCaffrey situation. Like, he has 30 fantasy points per game in his range of outcome.
61:17This could happen. Everything is lined up. Everything. Everything.
61:20Everything. Even as the draft capital. Right? He even has the draft capital.
61:24The thing is, with players like Jameer Gibbs, they can come from day three.
61:28You'll notice that the day three breakout running backs, they look more like Jameer Gibbs, Aaron Jones, satellite back plus type guys.
61:35A lot of them from small schools. They end up breaking out from day three.
61:40The guys with the workhorse profiles, the 225 pounders, they typically get drafted.
61:44The ones that have, you know, top running back in fantasy or elite running back upside.
61:49They typically go first round, second round. Everything from like Saquon Barkley through Nick Chubb.
61:54These are like top 40 picks in the NFL draft, which is also an additional concern for Nicholas Singleton that we talked
62:01about earlier to call back to Nicholas Singleton. If he had more of like an Emmitt Johnson type profile, you could feel
62:08a little bit better about it because those guys hit at a little bit higher rate.
62:13That profile hits a little bit higher rate from day three.
62:16The only comp from day three, if you're looking at thousand rushing yards the last 10 years for players of that size,
62:23there's one running back drafted in day three. And that is Jordan Howard.
62:27Again, this is coming from someone who's drafting Nicholas Singleton.
62:30Happily drafting him when I can't trade the pick.
62:33When I can't get out. Of course. Of course.
62:36When I can't get out. Happily doing it. And yeah.
62:39Jameer Gibbs, one on one, baby. Jameer Gibbs, one on one.
62:43And then the question is, well, do you take him one on one in dynasty?
62:47I had the opportunity to draft either Gibbs or Bijan.
62:50I went Bijan in dynasty. So there it is.
62:53Right. It's possible that even though they're the same age, that one guy can be the top pick in dynasty.
63:00That are going to be a top pick because the moon, the stars are aligned in just a certain way.
63:06But with Bijan, I mean, it's also, this is the year post Tyler Algier.
63:10Right. So Tyler Algier has departed and the, the, everything has opened up for Bijan.
63:15It's just, it's a more difficult schedule. It's an offense.
63:18That's not going to score as many points. And, and that, that right there, that's, that's the difference for me for this particular year with Bijan.
63:26And I just also didn't have any Bijan. I'm taking over all these orphans.
63:31I fortunately did have at least one team with Jameer Gibbs, had none with Bijan Robinson.
63:36And that does affect me. Like at some point I'm like, I want a Bijan.
63:40I want one. Give me one. Give me one.
63:43I'm allowed. I'm allowed to say, give me one.
63:46Give me one. I'm allowed to say, give me one.
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64:37I no longer have any Kyron Williams. We talked about this.
64:41There's a bunch of these running backs like Kyron Williams that I have none.
64:45It's like they feel radioactive. I hot potatoed them right off my team because we're starting to hear the C word more
64:52and more coming out of Los Angeles as Blake Corum is getting more and more integrated into the team.
64:58And Jarquez Hunter is waiting in the wings. There's also the C word being discussed in Tampa with the coaches very excited about what Kenny Gainwell can do.
65:07And I've been talking about Kenny Gainwell for five years.
65:10So welcome to the party, NFL coaches. Which of those two teams do you think is more committee-y?
65:16Committee-y. All right. You're going to have to trademark that.
65:19I'm going with the Bucs here, man. Like, I think we've kind of heard the same bell be rung year after year for the Rams and Kyron Williams.
65:28And then Kyron Williams just kind of keeps getting a solid workload and being good for fantasy.
65:33Whereas Bucky Irving was... And Kyron's also got the contract, too.
65:37Like, it's already been signed. The money's been paid.
65:39Bucky Irving got his... I don't want to say flash in the pan because that sounds disrespectful.
65:45But he had his good year of production. And then we saw it tail off.
65:50And the efficiency tailed off. And then he couldn't stay healthy.
65:53And then now in this offseason, they had every opportunity to say, You know what?
65:58We're going to commit to Bucky. This is our guy.
66:01Maybe we go and we get some sort of a big-bodied back that can be a good compliment to him.
66:07No. They go out and get nearly the exact same thing.
66:11It's... Like, the Bucks are... Like, they're marrying two wives that look exactly the same at running back.
66:16And they're just like, we love you both. Kenneth Gainwell, Bucky Irving, accept our love equally.
66:21And as fantasy managers, that sucks for us, man.
66:24Like, I don't want any part of that. But Bucky Irving is so far down in both my redraft and dynasty rankings
66:31that I'm just not getting any of him in any draft that I'm in.
66:35But I like Gainwell. Oh, yeah. I'm good with Gainwell.
66:39Until that cost gets out of control. Like, I can be good with any player at cost.
66:44But right now, Gainwell's good. He's going earlier and earlier.
66:47He is. Earlier and earlier. Earlier and earlier. Earlier and earlier.
66:51Which makes me... You know, of all the players we talked about...
66:54Actually, the one player we didn't mention by name is the guy that I have the most of in dynasty, and that's Sean Tucker.
67:02So I just happen to have a lot of Sean Tucker.
67:05And they're talking about using him inside the five-yard line.
67:09The coaches have said he proved himself as trustworthy and able to convert inside the five-yard line.
67:14We're going to keep feeding Sean Tucker inside the five-yard line.
67:17Oh, wait a second. When's Bucky getting the ball again?
67:21Can you? He's going to get those low-calorie touches, man.
67:24I did. I have shed almost all of my Bucky.
67:27I might still have one Bucky left, but I did do a deal recently.
67:31Talked about it on the Trade God Show. Look for Trade Gods wherever you get podcasts.
67:36And I... We're a trade that I did where the two primary pieces where I gave up Bucky Irving and I got Zay Flowers.
67:44Oh, I like that. Yeah, so Zay Flowers is one of those guys where he's not yet 26.
67:49So he's not quite at the age apex yet.
67:52And all he's been doing is getting better and better.
67:55Commanding more targets. Putting up more yards. You know, incrementally.
67:59Oh, three touchdowns. Then four touchdowns. Then five touchdowns.
68:01And all Mark Andrews is doing is getting older and dustier.
68:05And they're letting Isaiah Likely go. And they're not bringing in any receivers with significant capital or impressive profiles to compete for targets with my man Zay Flowers.
68:14So, yeah, trying to get out in front. I'm in a startup right now.
68:18And I've got my fingers crossed that Zay Flowers makes it to me.
68:22I mean, drafting all this Dak Prescott. As my third quarterback.
68:26In order to just give it to the league.
68:28Just take it. Just take this. Seizing the steering wheel in these startups.
68:33I love it. Right? And it's just like, this is best player available, everybody.
68:37We're getting Dak. But then it also puts me in a precarious position where then I'm like, maybe I can't get flowers.
68:44And it's already happened once that I took Dak.
68:47And part of the price I paid was no flowers.
68:50But fortunately, I've been able to trade for flowers in a couple leagues.
68:54But I just think that even though it hasn't been that long since I acquired flowers, I even think that if I
69:01try to do those deals now, they wouldn't happen.
69:04There really is. It's like, I wouldn't say it's at like Luther Burden level enthusiasm.
69:08But people want flowers in Dynasty. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
69:12And I'm interested in it, too. Like, there's now a little bit more excitement that you've got a revamped offense.
69:18I don't think by any means we're going to say that Lamar Jackson is not a good quarterback.
69:24But I think that there's an opportunity for his wings to spread a little bit with this new offense.
69:30You know, getting out of the Todd Monken scheme and what could it mean for Zay Flowers.
69:35And the Ravens just still, I know if they went and they spent some picks on some mid-round guys this year, I
69:42don't see Jacoby Lane and Elijah Surratt being guys that are going to take targets away from Zay Flowers.
69:48They're just going to be out there cannibalizing each other.
69:51Maybe hurt Rashad Bateman in terms of his target volume.
69:54But this is Zay Flowers' offense. So as long as he's healthy and this offense isn't just a total train wreck, yeah,
70:01I'm with it in both redraft and Dynasty for the next few years.
70:05So I mentioned earlier Brock Bowers. I took about the 104 in Superflex.
70:09How are you viewing the Raiders' offense this year?
70:12When do you think Mendoza is going to be in there?
70:16How are you attacking Bowers in particular formats? Best ball, Dynasty, standard seasonal leagues?
70:20You want Bowers, but at what cost? Yeah. I mean, I'm good with...
70:24I don't know if I mentioned it earlier or if on my show.
70:28I know in redraft, for example, in the second round I'm taking AJ Brown, but I'm taking Brock Bowers ahead of him.
70:35And I'm going to do that and redraft it.
70:38In Dynasty, I still like Brock Bowers a ton.
70:41And I'm a Besh bro. I love Jack Besh.
70:44But there's also, you know, a reality here where he doesn't even get on the field in two wide receiver sets.
70:50With Trey Tucker and Jalen Naylor being there and the Raiders could keep using multiple tight ends and letting that work out.
70:57I think the Raiders are going to have some growing pains.
71:01I think it could be very similar to what the Titans had last year.
71:05However, this team has much better weapons than the Titans had.
71:08And I mean like much better, like 3x, 5x, whatever we want to say here.
71:13There was nothing close to a Brock Bowers or Ashton Jinty on the Titans offense last year.
71:18So I think there's going to be some struggles.
71:21Probably not as bad as Tennessee in previous years.
71:24I think Kirk Cousins gets the ceremonious three or four starts to begin the season.
71:29And if the Raiders go 1-3 or 0-4, even 2-2 and they're ugly, you can't keep Fernando Mendoza off the field for very long.
71:36No. And he'll be there. I think it's kind of ridiculous the fact that he won't start week one.
71:42But the Raiders seem like they're just doing weird things.
71:46So I don't know. I've heard that they could keep him on the bench, keep him watching all the way to their
71:52bye week, which is well past week 10. And it's like, no, man.
71:57No, this is billions and billions and billions of dollars riding on these franchises.
72:01This is an entertainment spectacle. There is tickets to be sold, jerseys to be sold, the expectations of fans.
72:07You have players that want to earn their next contract.
72:10You have coaches that want to keep their jobs.
72:13All these forces at play that, yeah, the one guy, the GM, is probably ideally saying, hey, for his development and to
72:20optimize his growth curve, the best possible growth curve for Fernando Mendoza is that, yeah, ideally he sits for half the season.
72:27On paper, that makes sense to me. But these games aren't played on paper.
72:31These seasons don't play out on paper. All these forces are going to get him in the lineup.
72:37So I think, yeah, we're talking three, four games.
72:40And then hello, Mendoza. And that's what you're going to expect.
72:43And when it comes to Bowers, he was top two in both Ariard share and target share last year, playing through a significant knee injury.
72:51And he was also number two in first read target share.
72:54He had a 31.7% first read target share. Number one in the NFL in red zone target share, 40 plus percent.
73:01So he did this with one bad knee. This is the context from which I'm so bullish on Brock Bowers.
73:07I mean, this is this is the all the you've read the case for drafting Travis Kelsey in the first round.
73:14Right. In the last 10 years, there's that that article has been written many times.
73:19Right. This is actually, I think, the best possible case for that.
73:22More than Kelsey, more than Gronk, more than this is this.
73:26This is the singular example of you have a player that has the entire offense to himself.
73:31He has two quarterbacks and cousins and Mendoza that are going to be targeting the tight end at a higher rate.
73:38He himself is finally healthy in his super prime in his third year in the NFL.
73:43And this is the year you can see everything click into place in a massive, massive, massive way.
73:49It's hard. It's hard to actually it's it's hard to be too bullish.
73:53Yeah. Yeah. And the thing is, too, is like even comparing him to previous tight ends, it's almost not fair because they were tight ends.
74:01A lot of them were playing in line. And if they got out into the slot, it was like, oh, look how cool that is.
74:08He can go play in the slot. Like Brock Bowers actually plays out as a Z receiver, like way too often for
74:15us to be calling him a tight end. He's just a pass catcher.
74:19And when you start thinking of him as such, you're saying, oh, he should be going early second round, mid second round
74:26where everyone's taking guys like Nico Collins and AJ Brown and some of these other players.
74:31Like he should be right up there. And I don't want to look past this because we talked about it.
74:38Sometimes we we meander and I get distracted and I want to make sure we we talk about this.
74:44I keep seeing Luther Burden go earlier and earlier and earlier and earlier in these startups to the point where now I'm
74:51seeing him go pretty much at the same pick back to back with the dunes.
74:55And that just feels weird. Yeah, I'm you asked me before the show, like, hey, man, who are you in on with doing say your burden?
75:04And I playfully said whoever's cheaper. It's almost always a dunes.
75:07And that I don't understand. And I'm a big Luther Burden guy.
75:11Like I love this film coming out of college.
75:14And I was shocked when he didn't go first round.
75:17And then when he started playing well, I was like, see, all you people are idiots.
75:22It's then now we're at the point, though, where it's like he's going way too early in drafts.
75:27And we are expecting him to produce and be just as good as so many other players when I'm way more in
75:34on Roman Dunzey at cost and what we can get from him and the touchdown output, the target output.
75:40But you mentioned before the show, you mentioned before the show, the air yards that come with it.
75:46I'm I'm not where everyone else is on Luther Burden's cost.
75:49I love the talent. I think a lot of things need to go right for him to pay off that cost.
75:56Roma Dunzey had more than 100 air yards per game.
75:59Think about that. More than 100 air yards per game.
76:02And I know the touchdown rate was relatively high.
76:05Six touchdowns and only only 12 games that may not be sustainable or he's just a guy that they look for in the red zone.
76:13He was not 100 percent last year, nor was Brock Bowers.
76:17And these underlying metrics say that he is prime for a massive breakout season this year.
76:22He's a top 10 pick. He's a top 10 pick that was an absolute mega producer in college.
76:27And all he's done is is post big air yards numbers to consecutive seasons.
76:32His 36 percent air yard share last year was number 14 among NFL wide receivers.
76:36And his a dot is average target distance per target was top 12.
76:40Right. And he had 23 deep targets in 12 games.
76:44So this is where fantasy points come from. A lot of them come from big plays.
76:49Right. So for for a guy like Luther Burden, he has to put his a string together.
76:54A lot of great plays, a lot of squeezing the ball in traffic.
76:58He has to make a lot of guys miss.
77:01It's a lot of work to be done for him to get a fantasy point.
77:06It's a lot easier, actually, for Roma Dunzey in his role to post fantasy points.
77:10And you look at the air yards, air yards are the best predictor.
77:14It's not yak. It's air yards. This work has been done originally by Josh Hermsmeyer.
77:19He launched a website called airyards dot com because it was so important.
77:23Right. And then so I'm not going to forget that air yards matter and just suddenly just extrapolate Burden to a place that is very uncomfortable for me.
77:32He only had 650 yards. Right. And of that, only 460 were air yards because he's an underneath receiver.
77:38He is potentially one of the elite slot flankers in the NFL.
77:42I want to see it this year. I'm looking forward to seeing it and I'm going to be seeing it from the fantasy sidelines.
77:49I'm going to be rooting him on to be that guy from the fantasy sidelines and I'm OK with it.
77:56Yeah, I mean, I'm I keep looking at the Bears as this offense that can really take the next step.
78:02The problem is that I think is a lot of other people are looking at that, too.
78:07Like we already saw them take one step forward under Ben Johnson.
78:11And if they take the next step forward, we're talking about potentially one of the best offenses in the league.
78:17Right. And I can get the sex appeal of that, of drafting that early in drafts.
78:22But we're kind of drafting them at their height right now, at least when it comes to Luther Burden.
78:28I think it's just because that is the young, flashy name, because weirdly enough, it's not happening with anyone else.
78:35It's not happening with the Andre Swift. It's not happening with Roma Dunze.
78:39Oh, you know what? It is happening with Colson Loveland.
78:42I think Colson Loveland has a shot at being a really good player, but he's also going in the third round of
78:49drafts, which is like we are we're buying these guys at what the ceiling could be instead of buying them at a fair price.
78:56Where Loveland goes and tight in premium is getting cartoonish.
79:00It's so high. It's so crazy. And then many, many picks later, you can still get Tyler Warren.
79:05So it doesn't make any sense to me. And if you're looking to take a team that is poised to take a
79:12huge step forward, you we've talked about it already.
79:15It's Tennessee. Yeah. Everything is going to improve this year.
79:18Better protection, better, more patient quarterback play. He's going to take care of the football even more.
79:23But what can he do? Tactically scramble by extra time.
79:27Who's going to absolutely thrive in that environment? It's going to be Carnell Tate.
79:31Carnell Tate, man. Like it's, that's if you want to find an offense that everyone's not already talking about where it's all
79:38baked in already, I think that is the team where you can really glean some values still in all formats.
79:44Cam Ward, the beauty is, and even Carnell Tate, they are actually still values in dynasty startups at age 22 and 21.
79:51That's so rare. And, but that's what we saw because just the, the raw numbers, the season long numbers were concerning, but most quarterback struggle.
79:59Peyton Manning was awful, truly horrific as a rookie.
80:02Most quarterbacks are. And the way Cam Ward played, you saw a, a sort of a, uh, that he had a respect
80:09for the football possession was not just turning the ball over.
80:12He was less reckless, similar game to Caleb Williams, right?
80:15Similar, but Caleb Williams was a little more reckless than even he was.
80:20Now he can't make some of those throws that Caleb Williams can make because only Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes can make those throws.
80:27But you saw Cam Ward making, trying his best impersonation of Pat Mahomes and Caleb Williams and being a little more careful about it.
80:35And it, or at least the results, it ended up with fewer interceptions than you probably, you know, you would have thought
80:42given how he's playing as a rookie, like, Oh, with this team, with these receivers, there's going to be a bunch of interceptions actually lower than you thought.
80:50And so that is what I think we'll, we'll carry over, but the accuracy, the timing, all these things going to get a lot better for him.
80:59I am absolutely enchanted by Cam Ward. I, after watching, uh, eight games of his and going through everything that he's done,
81:06I left a lot of those games going. That wasn't his fault.
81:10That's Shamir DK not being able to come down with a cat.
81:13That's Elikio Manor dropping a pass over the middle.
81:16That's Calvin Ridley getting tossed around by 180 pound defensive back.
81:20Uh, that's Gunnar Helm dropping a pass. Like this is, uh, and a lot of times, like you can see a sort
81:27of the immaturity of a rookie where he's trying to make too much happen, but more often than not, I'm actually just
81:33seeing a guy who's making the safe play, who's getting rid of the ball.
81:38And then there's these plays where I'm just like this dude's psychopath where he's running left, running right, running back, running forward,
81:45throwing the ball 30 yards across the field. And he's got arm talent, like ridiculously good arm talent.
81:50I, I, I think we're, we are too low on Cam Ward as a fantasy industry and as a dynasty industry.
81:57And after watching him compared to watching Jackson Dart, Jared Goff, uh, Aaron Rogers, Jordan Love, there's a part of me that
82:04thinks that he could be the best quarterback in 2027 out of all those guys, like easily, easily, easily over Dart and a bunch of other guys.
82:13I think Love is the only one. I'm kind of like, eh, but Cam Ward, it's just such a difference in how
82:19he plays versus how some of these other young quarterbacks come out and play.
82:24I mean, do you right? You love Jackson Dart.
82:27You, you, you want to, you want to chase that rushing ceiling.
82:30Sure. Go ahead, please, by all means, but the price you have to pay to chase that.
82:36No, thanks. No, thanks. And there's some real risk with the way he plays.
82:40So yeah, I, uh, I'm absolutely with you on that mind blown.
82:44Anytime I see Jackson Dart go in the second round of a super flex dynasty startup, mind blown.
82:50So we'll get Tennessee, an incredible source of value.
82:52What's another team where you, where you see a lot of pieces that you want to be drafting when it comes to that.
83:00I mean, I think we talked about them a little bit earlier.
83:04I think the Packers are interesting because I don't think anyone is being truly valued as like a top player.
83:10I think everyone's expecting a drop from the Packers, especially with the Josh, the Josh Jacobs thing is also, it's kind of like the magician, the illusionist.
83:18That's like, Hey, look at what's happening over here.
83:21Also, no one's paying attention to the price of Christian Watson or, or Jaden Reed or Tucker craft.
83:27Like when I saw Tucker craft going behind Harold Fannin in drafts, I was like, and this is for redraft.
83:33I was confused by that. Uh, but Jaden Reed is another guy that, I mean, I've loved his talent for a long time.
83:40Wish he could get more opportunity. And that looks like it's happening.
83:44It will. It's like, it's happening, right? Algier's gone in Atlanta.
83:48David Montgomery's gone Detroit. It's all very straightforward guys.
83:50Dobbs is gone. Wicks is gone. So, so much on film for the Packers was Don Tavian Wicks, not being able to
83:57get open and Romeo Dobbs actually like not being as sure handed as I, as, as I remembered him being at least this last year.
84:05And all of this was just telling me, God, we really need to get the ball on Jaden Reed's hands more and
84:12get that ball to Christian Watson who's healthy. And I know there's a lot of like, I'm really excited for Matthew golden.
84:19I think he can get there. I was leery of Matthew golden coming out of Texas because he never put up the production that he needed to.
84:28And in, in full reality, when Isaiah bond was in the field for Texas, Matthew golden was the wide receiver too.
84:34So I, I, I, I think there's going to be a slice of the pie there, but I think that Matthew golden
84:41ends up being the fourth target on this team behind Watson craft and read question in the chat price or conception.
84:48Um, a little more context would help here. I'm assuming it's dynasty and assuming his dynasty.
84:53We're assuming his PPR assuming it's like what? Three wide receivers.
84:56Probably. Um, um, I'm going to go conception. I'm going to go conception.
85:00I'm not a, I'm not a big Jadarian price guy.
85:03Um, I also think the Seahawks love doing some funny business with their running backs and Jadarian price can't pass block and he's not a great pass catcher.
85:12And I'm worried. He's not gonna be on the field all that much.
85:16I would be very careful. Very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very careful with Jadarian price.
85:22And we are behind consensus on him at player profiler.
85:25And we're ahead of consensus in Casey conception. Like he's the guy, right?
85:29Conception first round pick, and he's going to be one of these six foot, 200 pound new age alphas.
85:35And that's what you love. And their, their quarterback position can only improve for the next couple of years.
85:41And he's going to improve right along with it.
85:44Jerry Judy is going to exit stage left. Denzel Boston's never going to be able to separate in the NFL.
85:50And it's going to be the conception and Harold Fannin show with a big quarterback upgrade coming in Cleveland.
85:56I love getting conception. I just, for whatever reason, the way my picks are, I rarely can get him.
86:02I rarely can get him, but yeah, there's not a big difference between him and Makai lemon.
86:07I think it's close. I would still prefer lemon, especially now with AJ Brown officially out in Philadelphia.
86:13But yeah, Casey conception, you're not going to find receiver talent like this outside the first round.
86:18Generally speaking, if you can get a Casey conception first round talent, you, you've got to push the button in dynasty rookie
86:25drafts, and then you can go with other positions, whether they be running back in the second round, tight end, right?
86:32Go Emmett Johnson in the second round. You can get Oscar Delp, but you can do all these fun things with other
86:39positions in super flex, even like a drew LR or whatever you just do.
86:43But almost always with the exception of like Ted Hearst at the end of the second round, you're these receivers you're going to be drafting probably dead, right?
86:52They're probably, you know, Chris Brazel, all these guys probably dead on arrival.
86:56And that's just the history of receivers, especially, you know, any receivers drafted outside the top 50.
87:01It's just puke. Yeah. Yeah. You just don't, you just don't see it.
87:06You don't see it. I mean, I see like branch and brazzle.
87:09And then, you know, in my rookie drafts, those guys are getting avoided and people are moving up and they're, they're grabbing Singleton.
87:17They're grabbing Chris Bell. They're even grabbing Ted Hearst me.
87:20So I'm still curious of how these ADPs even get set.
87:23Like how is Brazel ahead? Who are the people?
87:26What, what, what, what leagues are these where he's going before Hearst?
87:30Yeah. It's the people that had them there before the draft and are just kind of sticking to the priors.
87:36It's weird. It's totally weird. Yeah. What about Washington?
87:39Because the news came out and some people think this is a big deal.
87:43Others don't think it's a big deal at all.
87:46And I don't know. I actually don't know how big of a deal it is that Jaden Daniels would be playing more under center.
87:54I don't think it really matters at all. Um, I think that's just something that we're going to see more as the
88:01league starts to deploy, uh, heavier tight end usage, right?
88:04Like it's gonna, it's going to get offenses into a look where the defense can't predict what they're doing.
88:10We can make it look like we're running, but we're actually not.
88:14We're using a play action pass set here. Uh, we're just going to see thing is, is that like the NFL goes
88:20in waves where there's these trends for three to five years.
88:24We're all going to do the same thing. And then one person starts to do something new, which is using more tight ends.
88:31And that person's last name is either McVay or Shanahan every time, every time.
88:36Right. And then now this is the first time where I'm hearing so much about quarterbacks going under center and how they don't know how to do it.
88:44And yeah, man, because that's been the NFL offense for five years.
88:48So sure. Teams are going to start to do it.
88:51I don't see it as a bad thing. I think it's going to give these offenses more unique looks and especially for a running quarterback like Jaden Daniels.
89:00I think it's going to get the defense on their heels a bit.
89:04Tara McLaurin to me is still a lightly used race car.
89:08Unlike a guy like Odell Beckham, one of the big reasons why you can't expect much from Beckham is because of all
89:15of those lower body injuries, the ruptured Achilles and the knee injuries and all these things he's had to go through the,
89:22Oh, the whole, just a horrific hamstring, right? Torn hamstring off the bone.
89:26Oh God. Right. All Terry does is just play all 17 games, glide around out there and score fantasy points.
89:32And so to me, I think Tara McLaurin is a great value specifically in dynasty.
89:37I have him in on some leagues where I'm not even going to compete this year.
89:42And I'm like, I'm not out here actively trying to dump a guy like Tara McLaurin.
89:47Like I would be a guy like Bucky Irving.
89:50No, no. Like I, I I'm happy, I'm happy to have to ride it at ride into the sunset with Terry McLaurin, baby.
89:57Yeah. I'm, I'm in on Terry McLaurin this year.
90:00Um, even for the next few years, because like, there's nothing coming up that says, man, the commanders are really going to be bringing in someone else.
90:08It's going to take a heavy dose of targets away.
90:11Now, listen, a year from now, we could be looking at the first round of the NFL draft and they're everything as
90:18they really need another wide receiver to throw in here.
90:21By all means, continue to draft guys in the third round, like Antonio Williams.
90:26Yeah, please continue that. That's what we want. That, that just, that locks in McLaurin as the wide receiver one.
90:32And then if Williams can exceed expectations as wide receiver two, great.
90:36That that's exactly what I was going to say is that they do just enough to put out a good offense that produces a good fantasy player.
90:44And it's kind of the similar thing that we saw year after year in Atlanta here with Drake London, where it's like,
90:51okay, yeah, the second wide receiver is solid at the tight end can produce a Drake London's going to get his targets.
90:58And it's kind of the same thing here with Terry McLaurin.
91:02He's going to get his targets. Yeah. Terry McLaurin, Terry, Terry, Terry, Terry, go get him all formats.
91:07But again, that's the 30 year old dynasty ad, right?
91:10Like he is going to age much better than say a guy that with the same age, Cortland Sutton, right?
91:17Cortland Sutton, that archetype always and forever will be an immobile statue at age 31.
91:21Like the one guy we've seen and only because he is like, you know, record setting hall of famer is Mike Evans.
91:28If your name's not Mike Evans and you're 31 and with a big lumbering X receiver, it's going to be over very quickly for you.
91:36Give me a truth or a guy that you're, you're locked in on.
91:40You're not dropping him in dynasty and you don't care.
91:43Um, well, I guess this doesn't sound as good this year, but Josh Downs has been a guy that have been like, he's a really good player.
91:52Just wait till he gets the shot here. Yes.
91:55This is a shot because he keeps getting used as a slot receiver.
91:59And like now he's getting the slot, the shot out of the slot, uh, where he can actually go and be the
92:06second wide receiver on this team and work from the Z.
92:09And that's, that's what he was able to do in college too, with Drake May.
92:14And we saw a guy that could win downfield and a win contested catches despite his size.
92:19So I love the talent of Josh Downs. I think he'll finally have that opportunity this year.
92:25And if I'm going like super deep on, on Josh Downs, this is one of the few teams in the NFL that
92:32wasn't all in on loading up on tight end.
92:34They got their two-way tight end in Tyler Warren.
92:37And they were like, we have what we need to execute 11 personnel.
92:41Thank you very much. We're good to go. Right.
92:44And they don't even have a third receiver who is their third receiver on their depth chart is Ashton Doolin.
92:51And I love Ashton Doolin. So I'm fine with it, but I'm more of a truther of Josh Downs like yourself.
92:57So in two receiver sets, it's going to be downs.
93:00He's going to be, he's going to be a slot flanker.
93:04I mean, he's going to be playing a bunch of Y, but also a bunch of Z and he has that ability.
93:11He certainly did that at North Carolina. He was historic in terms of catches for someone under 20 years old in college, broke records.
93:18And he is just a fantastic, phenomenal football player.
93:21He's not big. He's not explosive, but he has that thing.
93:25It's very much like a je ne sais quoi play with Josh Downs.
93:29Like I can't quite explain it, but I know the guy gets open and the guy commands targets and just have to lean into that.
93:36And last time I checked, Alec Pierce, not participating.
93:39He's still recovering from an off season surgery. So it's just all downs all the time right now in Indianapolis.
93:46And so I love that. But I also love Tyler Warren.
93:49So I love the war that Warren downs in terms of a tight end and a wide receiver pairing.
93:55I'm trying to think through all the different teams.
93:58I also really, yeah, I mean, I, it's hard to find a better value wide receiver and tight end together.
94:04It, it, they, they could just totally dominate the target share because Alec Pierce is not a high target share player.
94:11He's a, he's, he's a field stretcher, right? Yeah.
94:14I just, I, I, I think the only thing that could worry you a little bit is if Daniel Jones doesn't recover
94:21fully from his injury and he just never looks the same, right?
94:24Like that's within the realm of possibility. That is a risk, but at the cost, that's why Josh Downs interests me the
94:31most because at cost, he's the cheapest pass catcher of this bunch and Riley Leonard can find him.
94:37Yeah. I mean, if that's the worst case scenario, then sure.
94:40Why not? Anthony, like I didn't, I didn't miss this, Anthony Richardson still on that team.
94:45Well, he's not, he can't, he can't play football, but well, I mean, he's legally on the team.
94:51He's, he's legally allowed to play football. Well, he's, well, yes, he's legally allowed to play football and he is under contract with the Indianapolis Colts.
94:59These are facts. Okay. All right. Beyond that, it was more so of like, whoever the, the quarterback is, they can, they can do it.
95:07They can get the ball to him. It's easy.
95:10So that, that's why he's, he's the guy that just, you know, sort of tickles my fancy when I'm looking at that
95:17team and a guy that just, whether it's redraft dynasty, whatever it is, I can't give up.
95:22Yeah. I mean, I'm looking in the chat, uh, fanning conception might be the other one that might be the next best one.
95:29I mean, there's really not that many, I mean, McConkie and Gadsden, right.
95:34I mean, that's, that's, that's a good one, but McConkie's man, he steamed up McConkie's not a value anymore.
95:40My goodness. They're going to go, they're going to be playing 13 personnel too.
95:44If you want to go to the epicenter and this is not an earthquake joke, you want to go to the epicenter
95:51of 13 personnel, you go to Los Angeles. That's where you're going to see all the 13 personnel you could ever want.
95:58It's going to be in Los Angeles in SoFi.
96:01That's where it's, the chargers or the Rams. You're going to be seeing a lot of 13 personnel.
96:06Okay. Uh, and I'm, I'm, I'm here for it.
96:09I'm here for, and we're going to have to try to identify.
96:13That's the other thing. Week one is going to be fascinating, right?
96:17Yes. Of course the Jacksonville wide receiver snap shares will be the thing, but then after we figure out the Jacksonville wide
96:24receiver snap shares, then it's going to be going through all the personnel groupings and the trends with the personnel groupings around
96:31the league and see who's sticking to 11 personnel and who's flipping over to like a default 12 personnel.
96:37I think there's going to be some teams out there that are going to be run more 12 personnel than anything else,
96:43which is brand new, but that's the, they're all saying that's what they want to do.
96:48And you know, they're telling the truth because they're all drafting tight ends.
96:53And a lot of them are blocking tight ends in the second and third round.
96:57So this is all happening. Everybody it's happening. That's why when I look at the Jaguars and they're drafting a blocking tight
97:04end in the second round, I'm like, you're, you're going to do something with that.
97:09You, you can't not do something with that, especially after you mishandled your, your top pick from last year where you traded
97:16draft capital away and you don't even know what position he's playing.
97:20So I don't understand it. You want to, you want to trade Brian Thomas up?
97:24I'm here for it. Fine. Normally like that. Don't, don't, please don't trade these guys when they're young.
97:30Please don't do it. It's just, it's, it's unnecessary volatility, but they want to dump Brian Thomas.
97:35They want to send him to Philadelphia, something like that could be, it could be interesting.
97:40But I do like the setup. I mean, we have, we have Devante Smith.
97:45Don't make me update all the projections again. Please.
97:48No, please don't. Okay. We'll get you out of here, man.
97:51Thank you so much for, for jumping on the show with me.
97:55It was really fun. Give us a bold prediction.
97:58Oh boy. Bold prediction. Are you ready for this?
98:01I don't, I don't think the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs this year.
98:05I'm going to say that I'm going to say, I don't think the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs this year.
98:11And I think Sam Darnold turns into a bit of a pumpkin after Clint Kubiak leaves.
98:16I love it. I absolutely love it. I'm going to say, I don't think the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs this year.
98:23And I think Sam Darnold turns into a bit of a pumpkin after Clint Kubiak leaves.
98:28I love it. I absolutely love it. It's got to be bold for a reason, man.
98:33It's kind of like buying land. Like you're, you may not live there, but you, you now own the commodity and it
98:40could be the most valuable commodity in your entire league.
98:43So you might as well buy up all the land.
98:46So when people need a place to live or a tight end to start, they're going to you.
98:52Yeah. I'm the land man. There should be a whole show.
98:55There should be a show called land man. We should, we should do a television show called land man.
99:01What do you think of that? You're the land man.
99:04Now you're the land man feel rejuvenated. We were, we were locking arms.
99:09We did this together. It felt so good. We're two pounds or two inches taller.
99:13Oh, Oh, Oh, I want one. Give me one.
99:16Give me one. I'm allowed. I'm allowed to say, give me one, give me one.
99:21And that person's last name is either McVay or Shanahan every time, every time.
99:25Well, he's legally on the team. He's legally allowed to play football beyond that.
99:30You're the land man. Now you're the land man.
99:32You can't reason with a son. Trust us. We've tried this summer.
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